Q3 2020 Alamos Gold Inc Earnings Call
All participants please standby your conference is ready to begin.
Good morning, I would like to turn the meeting over to Mr., Jamie Porter Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead Mr. border.
Thank you operator, and thanks, everyone for attending Alamos third quarter 2020 conference call.
In addition to myself, we have on the last day, John Mccluskey, President and CEO and Peter Macphail, Chief operating officer.
We will be referring to a presentation. During the conference call that is available through the webcast and on our web site I would also like to remind everyone that our presentation will be followed by Q and a session.
As we will be making forward looking statements during the call. Please refer to the cautionary notes included in the presentation news release and Mdna as well as the rest risk factors set out in our annual information form.
Nickel information in this presentation has been reviewed and approved by Chris Bostwick, Our Vice President of technical services and a qualified person also please bear in mind that all the dollar amounts mentioned in this conference call are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.
Turn it over to John why do you with an overview of the quarter.
Thank you very much Jamie and welcome everyone to our conference call.
Got it excellent third quarter operationally and financially.
And we have delivered on several key catalysts, which has solidified our strong outlook.
These include the completion of the lower mine expansion at young Davidson.
Outside of the phase three expansion as well.
And the only Aki grabby construction decision.
We produced 117000 ounces of gold at significantly lower costs with each of our operations.
Very well in the third quarter.
Consolidated total cash cost of $681 per ounce and all in sustaining cost of $949 per ounce.
Greece sharply from the first half of the year and both were wise.
Well over revised guidance.
This reflected a strong quarter for lottery.
Another record quarter at island gold and young Davidson starting to demonstrate its full potential underground mining rates increasing its flat.
Strong operational performance and higher gold prices drove a number of financial records in the quarter, most notably record free cash flow of $76 million.
We expect strong free cash flow to continue in the fourth quarter, we remain on track to achieve our revised full year production guidance and cost Guy.
Moving to slide four.
Our health and safety protocols continue to evolve.
Look for the best ways to protect our employees their families.
And our communities from the coal was 19.
In addition, the strict protocols already in place we are now testing employees for COVID-19 before they start rotations within the cap.
Our island gold and a lot of clients.
The picture on the left shows the laboratory at identical.
Now can conducted more than 1500 tests per month.
Forming a similar number of passing a lot of.
These programs are extremely important wins sure we have the ability to identify and prevent the spread of the virus.
Additionally, we continue to support our local communities in area of need ranging from sponsored meal services for our communities around the world operation.
Just like medical and safety equipment and supplies to the communities.
Slide five outlined for focus on operating a sustainable business model that can support growing returns to shareholders over the long term.
[laughter] lower mine expansion at young Davidson Mark the transition from a reinvestment phase two period of strong free cash flow generation.
Well take a balanced approach to deploying this free cash flow.
Higher dividends strengthening our balance sheet.
Reinvesting in high return, okay organic growth projects.
Like the ongoing phase three expansion hockey Gregory.
At current gold prices I wouldn't golden Molotovs can more than something that's their respective projects a.
Allowing us to continue generating strong free cash flow and support our dividend.
These projects will in turn drive additional free cash flow growth.
The return to shareholders that are sustainable over the long term.
Given our strong cash position and outlook, we repaid the 100 million drawn on our revolving credit facility and over.
<unk>.
Her once again debt free.
Aligned with our commitment to returning capital to shareholders. We were also pleased to announce the 33% increase in our dividend to an annual rate of it meets that share starting in December 2020.
We have now increased the dividend by 300% 2018.
Theres room for further dividend increases.
I will now turn the call over to our CFO, Jamie Porter to review our financial.
Jamie.
Thank you John.
Moving on to slide six we had the best quarter in the company's history from a financial perspective with record operating cash flow free cash flow and adjusted earnings in the third quarter higher.
Higher margin that each of young Davidson Golden Molotovs contributed to record free cash flow of $76 million in the quarter.
Island Gold and a lot of both performed extremely well generating might say free cash flow of 41 million and 31 million respectively.
41 million of free cash flow at island gold set another quarterly record.
Through the first three quarters of 2020, I legal generated 70 million in mind say free cash flow already exceeding the previous annual record of 65 million generated in 2019.
Well I don't think it's been equally impressive generating 64 million of mines like free cash flow year to date, a significant portion of that has been driven by Theraclone. A project, we built and brought into production late last year for $25 million in capital. This highlights the high returns and quick payback from these types of projects something we can look forward to.
On a consolidated basis, we sold 116000 ounces of gold at a realized price of $1882 per ounce revenues of $218 million in the quarter total cash cost was 51 per ounce and all in sustaining costs at 949 per ounce decreased 18% and 15% respectively from the first half the year.
And were both below full year guidance.
Lower cost reflected the completion of the lower mine expansion at young Davidson as well as the resumption of normal operating levels at island Gold Molotovs. Following the COVID-19 related temporary suspension from the second quarter.
We remain very well positioned to achieve our revised full year cost guidance.
We continue to enhance their health and safety protocols with respect to cope in 19, including testing him a lot of an island gold during the third quarter.
Looking forward, we expect coping Nike testing and related cost that approximately $25 per ounce to our cost structure in the fourth quarter and into 2021.
Operating cash flow before changes in noncash working capital improved 63% year over year to a record 130 million or 33 cents per share in the third quarter.
Reported net earnings of 68 million or 17 cents per share included unrealized foreign exchange gain of 11 million recorded within deferred taxes and foreign exchange. Excluding these items, our adjusted net earnings were $57 million or 15 cents per share.
Capital spending totaled 55 million in the third quarter, including $23 million of sustaining capital 29 billion of growth capital and $3 million of capitalized exploration as with the second quarter growth capital spending was focused on completing the lower mine expansion at young Davidson work on the tailings facility that both young Davidson and island gold and other infrastructure.
Sure projects, primarily at island Gold, we expect full year capital spending to be in line with guidance of between 205 in 235 million.
[noise], our next quarterly debt will.
It will be paid in December 33% increase from the previous quarter.
This will bring our returns to shareholders to 31 million and 20 through dividends and share buybacks doubled the amount returned in 2019.
We ended the quarter with $274 million in cash up from 201 million at the end of June and $40 million of equity securities given our strong free cash flow outlook, we repaid the 100 million drawn on our revolving credit facility in mid October, giving a $500 million of additional liquidity and no debt.
We remain very well positioned to fund our internal growth projects, while continuing to grow our cash position and grow returns to shareholders.
I will now turn the call over to our COO, Peter Macphail to provide an overview of our operations.
Thank you Jamie.
Moving to slide seven.
Young Davidson generated mine site free cash flow of $11 million and third quarter.
Action of 36400 ounces at total cash costs of $923 per ounce Mike.
Mine site, all in sustaining costs of 1100 $96 per ounce.
All were significant improvements from the first half of the year, reflecting a partial quarter operating from the new lower mine infrastructure.
Following the completion of the lower mine expansion in July underground mining rates increased in the quarter to average 6700 tonnes per day.
Mining rates are expected to continue to improve along with grades mined and milled.
The production higher in the fourth quarter.
Young Davidson remains on track to achieve its revised annual production and cost guidance.
On slide eight.
We are already benefiting from the efficiencies of the new lower mine infrastructure.
Higher underground mining rates.
As ever achieved at lower costs.
Mining grades increased throughout the quarter and averaged 8000 tonnes per day in September, but the operation benefiting from the significant inventory broken or built up during the <unk>.
This demonstrates the expanded capacity and below in mind infrastructure with its increased skipping capacity anywhere storage capacity as well as increased automation in it.
And the supporting higher mining rates increased automation productivity and economies of scale and driving costs lower.
We expect mining rates to increase to sustainable rate and 7500 tonnes a day by the end of 2020.
Which will continue to drive production higher costs lower.
Combined with lower capital spending we expect this to drive significant free cash flow growth in the fourth quarter ended 2021.
Over to slide nine finding gold said, a number of new records in the quarter, including record mines like free cash flow of $41 million from record production of 39600 ounces.
Total cash costs of $394 per ounce and mine site all in sustaining costs.
$575 per ounce were down, 22% and 17% respectively compared to the same period last year.
Lower cost reflects the higher grade mined and processed during the quarter as well as lower royalties following the repurchase of 3% NSR royalty in March of this year.
In the fourth quarter, we expect grades to return to approximately reserve grade.
I'm gold remains well positioned to achieve annual production and cost guidance.
Work on the phase three expansion is ramping up.
Higher capital expenditure.
Spending expected in the fourth quarter.
Our focus remains on advancing permitting site clearing and detailed engineering of the shop and associated infrastructure.
Moving to slide 10.
September reported the best surface exploration hold today that island gold drill hole, MH 25, or four intersecting 27 grams per tonne cut over nearly 22 meters true width.
Another strong result was from drill hole, MH 25, or three intersecting 14 grams per tonne cuts over 15 years.
He's holes were 100 meters 40 meters, respectively down plunge from high grade.
No resource block and have true with three to four times greater than the average with.
Well.
These drill results continued to demonstrate the potential.
Further reserve and resource additions and also support our decision to take a shot because part of the phase three expansion.
Moving on to slide 11.
A lot of us had another strong quarter quarter, producing 41100 ounces total cash costs of $746 per ounce mine site, all in sustaining cost of $928 per ounce.
Year over year production was up 26% total cash costs were down 14%, reflecting the contribution of higher grade ore from Sarah Hello.
While we expect grades and production to decrease somewhat in the fourth quarter Molotovs is on track to achieve its full year production and cost guidance given the strong year to date performance.
On slide 12.
Alright from credit suites. Please go ahead you line is now open.
Hi, Good morning, Thanks for taking my two questions. The first on capital allocation, you mentioned that you'd.
You'd like to allocate a third of the free cashflow towards strengthening that strengthening the balance sheet, but right now there's no doubt the cash balance is just shy of 300 million Uhm. What is the goal for the cash balance before you maybe consider redirecting the free cashflow to the other two buckets. Thanks.
Yeah. Thanks, Thanks for the question it it it's Jamie here you know almost has always been.
I'd say more conservative than the than many of her peers from from a balance sheet perspective, and I think it served as well. It's it's physician has to be active in terms of M&A. When you know other market participants cat so we'd be targeting a cash balance of you know upwards of four to 500 million once.
We went once we hit that target, we'd start certainly increasing the the allocation to the to the other buckets. If you look at those priorities you know a third going to growth and exploration spending a third to dividend <unk>. Another shareholder returns and a third to the balance sheet that those are kind of long term targets that we we anticipate.
Realizing over the next 10 years. So if if you look at the current allocation. The next three to four years. The majority of our free Cashflow is going to our high returned growth projects to the phase three expansion that island gold to building like Jackie Grande and then eventually to construction of Lynn Lake.
I think beyond that beyond 2025 is when you see the free cashflow generation really start to increase in at that time, you'd see a real significant potential increase in the dividend.
Got it that that's very clear Okay, and then the only other question I had was on young Davidson what can you give some color why the Q3 milling throughput was lagging the mining rates I know you said that it's gonna pick up in Q4, and kinda match the mining great, but just curious why it like in the corner.
Yeah, Thanks for the questions Peter here.
Yeah the the.
Skipping from the mine in Q3 was back half loaded to a certain extent. So we really the mine was really able to to put.
Put a lot of tons up to skip.
The shaft during kind of latter part of August and into September. So the mill. It ended up being the mill created that stockpile in front of the mill. The mill has no problem mailing at 8010, a day rate you know an for instance in in October we're well above.
That so.
That's that's why that's why I like the mind that in the corner.
Okay, great. That's it for me thanks.
Thank you.
The next question is from that Mike Parkin from National Bank in until please go ahead go ahead and there's no open.
Hey, guys congrats on like a quarter a couple of questions for me the power lineup <unk> you'd be carrying that over to lay yoki and when would that connection like well that'd be over there in.
In time for first production.
Yeah, absolutely might gets.
You know production doesn't start there until 2021, we'll have plenty of time to it's planned to bring that over.
Early on.
Okay and kind of unpredictable.
<unk> is the Capex budget factor that in or would that be incremental to that no.
No that's that's factored in.
Okay. It's not it's not that it's about it's about five kilometers power along to bring it over.
Okay, and then the cost us soon as you've provided then I guess already assume that powerline connection.
Correct.
Okay.
And then you.
You know you've always had kind of a strong discipline or you know buy when prices are low with respect to gold.
What about the thought of you know in this environment selling any assets is there anything within the portfolio that you may be would look to release or you know if that's something that you guys are considering.
This is John what's okay, I'll I'll ask that Mike.
There are a couple of projects in our portfolio that are are clearly for small smaller for US. Now then then when they were literally acquired you know there are decent projects week, we continue to work on them and move them along but in this market environment as well.
Imagine we have we have interests inbound interest.
Coming on those projects and and you know we're we're in discussions so it wouldn't be inconceivable, if we if we sold chemicals non-core alka.
Okay Super that's it for me Thanks, Crutzen Congrats again.
Thanks, Mike.
Thank you.
The next question is from Cosmos two from C. I B C. Please go ahead, killing is not open.
Thank you, John Jamie and Peter and and congrats on a very strong third quarter here maybe in my first question is when young Davidson you know you talk about the throughput underground throughput at 8000 tons per day, but then you also talk about general getting to a sustainable rate of <unk>.
500 tons per day by your and 2020 can you help me bridge that sort of gap like what do you need.
To do still to kind of get to that consistent right because it sounds like you're already kind of there.
Yeah, Yeah. Thanks Cosmos.
Clearly the the underground infrastructure, the or can waste movement infrastructure is well.
Well capable of of 8000 tons, a day and we've demonstrated that we demonstrated that now.
You know, our our stope sequencing and.
Opening up a areas.
We budgeted to get to 7500 times a day by the end of this year with that ramp up <unk>.
And while we were down through you know it's true the time period that we've set ourselves up to do that and we will continue to ramp that up to 8000 tons of day bye.
You know mid ish next year. So we were able to demonstrate 8000 times a day in September by drawing down on a bit of inventory that we would have built up through the through the time. So that's you know that's.
That's the.
That's the bridge.
For sure and then I guess again on Y D. It'll ask you can talk to about the the throughput at the mill was slightly lower than Q3 due to there's no more stockpiles I know you've talked about you know matching billing and mining rights, you know and to the future, but as Ken.
Money rates go up and if it's exceed your expectations and is there any chance that you might want to build up a kind of stockpile once again or is that not in the cards.
I would suggest that it's rare it's rare that you see a stockpile in front of a mill in a underground mining situations. It can happen. We we had one at the end of end of Q3. The mill has demonstrated in the past 10000 times a day. It has no problem doing 8000 tons a day.
Like we're sitting at close to 9000 tons a day and.
Through you know the first 343 weeks of of.
Of October you know so there's no problem with with with the mill if anybody's concerned about that.
It it demonstrated 8000 times a day before we put in a couple of pressure. So we know in pebble crusher in there. It's it's not gonna have.
Any challenge doing those kinds of times, but it's mine is a you know 8010, a day or maybe better yet to think about it is a 200000 ounce a year plus producer and and and that's what it'll do going forward.
Okay, and then maybe the last question L Y D. Here you know certainly the the last several years was focused on on the you know tying up or the the underground infrastructure get all the operations and and more recently tying up the lower mine, but now that everything's soda in place and and I know in the past it'll reach.
<unk> exploration has not really been a focus area at least for a Y D is that is that gonna change now.
Calling on the name.
Go ahead, you on here I I would I would say you know where we're clearly interested in seeing what the further extension potential is adept two two y D. We don't have anywhere near the same sort of.
Neat, let's say two bill reserves of ideas as we do see at <unk> Island, or Mulatto Square reserve growth is driven by very specific production requirements.
Y D has 13 years of reserves the way, it's it's right now it's.
You know, you're only adding marginal value when you're adding reserves that go out beyond 15 years, but having said that we have started drilling weide again as we are into the second half of this year, we do have drilling taking place exploration drilling taking place there right now and.
And we're going to allocate a reasonably good budget for it for 2021, So I would say going into 2021 will.
Not success <unk>, you'll probably see additional reserve growth at and young young Davidson based on that drawing.
Mhm no. That's that's great to hear and those are all the questions I have thanks, John and team and congrats again on a very strong through for you and and stay safe everyone.
Thank you.
The next question is from Kerry Smith from the Haywood Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Thanks, operator.
Peter just on Y D. A if I can just kind of maybe ask the question a different way you you in the ass.
Average 8000 tons a day in September what was the best week, you had let's say on an average I can assist curious how much this milk handy.
The male.
Oh.
I mean, you know we put out 9010 days all the time, so Oh, you too mm yeah yeah.
Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. That's great. So we've got all kinds of capacity, there and probably just assume that's gonna do 8010, a day no problem, Okay <unk> <unk> the the.
The miners get one chance to Bury the mill and and and they took advantage of it with some tremendous performance in the latter part of the quarter.
[laughter] never you'll never see it again yeah.
Yeah, Okay, and then John just on the.
The portfolio optimization on the non core stuff I'm, assuming that maybe S brands and and some of those projects fall into that bucket would you consider today that turkeys at core asset the enemy just given the delays you've had there are you kind of thinking that maybe that's something that you may be would optimize out of the portfolio. It's.
Certainly not it it's not <unk> for example, we acquired it remembering and 20 task when they were expiration projects. We are very successful in that exploration, we built up a fairly substantial reserved there roughly 3 million ounces.
That made it quite quite interesting and then when we when we completed the economic studies.
They demonstrated very very strong economics, and so they were very attractive projects, but between the time that we we.
We flushed out those those economics and where we are today, we have since acquired young Davidson. We've acquired island go we'd go for our production.
Over a run rate of 500000 ounces a year normalized and.
And so from that perspective, Turkey, clearly isn't as as core as it as it once was and and questions have come up over the course of the last few quarters on these calls and at conferences and an investor meetings, and so forth and we've been very candid about the fact that you know, we're we're disappoint disappointed with the <unk>.
Ways that we've experienced and I I don't see things getting any easier in Turkey, we may very well benefit from from taking on a Turkish partner, It's no secret that we get all kinds of of inbound interest.
On these assets and particularly from.
Turkish minding entity and.
And so from that point of view, you know where.
We're gonna look as best we can to surface values for those assets and it's it's it's not satisfying at all to us to just being Ah Ah sit and wait mode. When we've got a project that's effectively fully permitted and and construction was was underway. We we're four months into construction.
Okay can we stop so uhm print situation is certainly not.
Not acceptable, where we're going to do something about it one way or the other and one of the alternatives. We're we're looking at is.
Taking on them.
A party who would.
Third party would come in at the.
At the project level Department with Us.
I gotcha okay.
Okay. That's great I appreciate that thank you.
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The next question is from Downton Burrito from Canaccord. Please go ahead, Yeah line is now open.
Oh, thank you.
John I'd like to continue on the subway carry made into Turkey. There has anything changed on the ground regionally and shanna Cali.
Oh, you know either for better or worse.
Well things are continually changing in Turkey.
From the probably the most.
Stark change over the last year is the the lire has gone from approximately five nine to the dollar to $8 to the dollar the economy of the of the <unk> region is getting really desperate desperate shape. It's it's a region that relies very heavily on on tours.
Some particularly the capital Janaka Lee itself relies very heavily on tourism and tourism was down drastically. This year. So yeah. The economy is is taking a a real hit the economy of this region is taking a real hit. So there is there is quite a.
How shall I put it in about.
Very vocal discussion going on there between.
Those that would like to see the project developed and who would benefit from the jobs.
And and supplying Ah.
A substantial business of that of that kind in the in the region and and those who you know effectively oppose it.
The port the people that supported by and large are those people that are are located closest to it and those that oppose it are are are those from outside and it's it's it's it's an old story and we we've seen similar things in Canada.
As we're seeing here in Turkey.
So we're having to you know.
Navigate a very some tricky waters here and where.
You know we're doing everything we can to.
To put ourselves in the best position to take advantage of of the the change in sentiment that I think.
We're starting to observe when I refer to that I mean, there is becoming a lot more interested in seeing this kind of economic activity in a badly.
Hit region.
We're hoping that is ultimately going to lead the government to.
Two reinstating our mining licences in Malawi, allowing us to get back to work, but right now the the best thing that we can do is be patient. That's what they got government has been asking us to do.
I guess, there's a certain point in time coming when we will no longer be patient and at that point, we're gonna have to look at.
What are what are alternatives are not.
Not a good position to be in there, they're great projects, but unfortunately.
We found ourselves just over a year ago put into.
That's a pretty tough position, where we effectively can't do any work and it's.
It's it's not something we anticipated and it's not something we're happy with but I think we're.
We're going to see a change one way or the other something up over the next six months.
Thank you that's helpful. John would you talk to investors does this situation.
Oh do you feel about the situation impairs you at all from and yes your perspective.
You know I.
I would say no.
Anyone who has looked at what happened there closely understand that effectively we were.
We were somewhat railroaded it was.
Social media campaign based on a whole slew of of false allegations and that is V.
Very well understood by now by our investors and certainly by everyone inside of Turkey, even the people who didn't know very well what they did.
And you know that's probably why it it just doesn't have the that the power to stick as cause.
Is that otherwise would if if we were actually guilty of something.
In terms of violating.
Our our permits or or doing something.
That.
Would be harmful to the environment I mean, the primary criticism that that the project development received was the was the cutting down of trees. In this region and of course, all those trees were cut down by the ministry of forests.
They weren't cut down with the company at all no company has a right to to cut down trees.
The government themselves cut those trees the harvested those trees the sold the trees. The kept all the revenue for those trees, we had nothing to do with that in there and this is a very this is an actively forested region and our our particular site represented less than 2% of the.
The area of.
Janaka leave that was that was forced did that year. So it's.
It's really a political situation that that we're in the middle up there it's.
It's it's the way of the opposition to attack the government through a talking to their environmental policies and and the the tried to make much more of this than it actually was.
The managed to initially gain a tremendous amount of support but all based on false.
Asian, because this is so well understood I would say that we are not facing.
A great deal of.
Difficulty from your perspective, if you don't look at the situation carefully if you were to just go online and and and take your your your ESG.
Policy, making a decision making from from what you're reading on Twitter or something like that yeah, maybe maybe if you're gonna be misled, but if anyone who looks into the details of what happened wouldn't wouldn't make a mistake.
That's that's great contact thank you and maybe I can just switch gears for one more question Liberal Lake I understand sanctions still a couple of years away and you're going to the permitting but could.
Could you give us a sense for what you would want to see from this project in order to sanction it.
And when we.
As analysts will see an update on the project.
Do you want to take that Peter.
Yeah, maybe I'd put it over to Jamie actually okay.
Yeah, No I think we're I I'd be yo called a feasibility study that we put out back in December of 2017 on the project had but a 12.5% IRR at 12 50 bold bright we we've been working away at it from an exploration perspective, you know finding additional ounces to to to put into.
That that that that resource and I think we've we've had some success. Our goal ultimately is to to get it to about a 15% IRR at 200 dollar bold bright so I think we're we're pretty close to there. We do have you know we're spending six $7 million a year on exploration, we have a massive brand package there.
We've had some very encouraging results are we do anticipate being able to expand resources, there and make the project better but you know even at a at a 1500 dollar gold price right now it's got a 22% after tax are and it anywhere close to the spot if it's closer to 32, 33%. So.
We we liked the project it it gives us the potential to get some 600000 ounces of Canadian production and 2025, when you add little Lake to what will be producing an island gold and and the 200000 ounces ear will get some young Davidson. So we what would we do like it would be in a position to make a construction decision.
In in the Middle of 2022 once once pardon me is complete and obviously, we we'd evaluate the the gold price the.
Dollar F X rayed and all the other factors at that time before moving forward.
Thanks, do you anticipate putting out a study ahead of that.
We may we we may update the study I mean, the the capital. That's that's in our 2017 feasibility study is is fully baked there hasn't been a lot in the way of changes to that but we've continued with you know engineering in further studying those costs. So I don't think there's been a material change on the Capex side.
If we're able to add materially due to the resource and then by materialism I'm talking like two to 300000 ounces. <unk> then we consider updating the study certainly.
Great. Thanks, guys. That's all for me.
Thank you.
This question is from Stephen <unk> from the purse Pershing Global financial solutions. Please go hit your line is now open.
Mr. Gradco. Your line is open. Please proceed with your question.
If you are a newt unusual line please.
I think you might have lost an operator when we proceed to the next caller.
So we have no further question registered at this time.
So this concludes today's morning call. If you have any further questions that not have been answered please feel free to contact Mister Scott Parsons at 4163689932 extension 54.
439. So the conference has now ended please disconnected this time and we thank you for your participation.
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This conference is no longer being recorded knowledge is promoted confirm also that the whole piece.
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55 please.
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