Q4 2020 Cincinnati Financial Corp Earnings Call

February 11, 2021

To begin momentarily until that time your lines will once again be placed on music hold thank you for your patience.

Okay.

[music].

Ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by and welcome to the Cincinnati Financial Corporation fourth quarter and full year 2020 earnings Conference call.

At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation. There will be a question didn't answer session to ask a question. During the session you will need to press star one on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded if you require any further assistance. Please press star.

<unk> zero I would now like to hand, the conference over to Dennis Mcdaniel Investor Relations Officer. Thank you. Please go ahead Sir.

Hello. This is Dennis Mcdaniel Cincinnati financial Thank you for joining us for our conference call.

Late yesterday, we issued a news release on our results along with our supplemental financial package, including our year and investment portfolio.

To find copies of any of these documents. Please visit our investor website, <unk> Dot com slash investors.

The shortest route to the information is the quarterly results leg and and navigation menu on the far left.

On this call for first year for Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Johnston, and then from Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell after their prepared remarks, and bachelors participating on the call may ask questions.

At that time, some responses may be made by others and the room with us, including Chief Investment Officer, Marty Hollenbeck, and Cincinnati Insurance's, Chief Insurance Officer, Steve Spray Chief claims officer, Mark Shambaugh, and senior Vice President of corporate Finance Theresa Hopper.

Please.

Note that some of the matters to be discussed today are forward looking these forward looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties with respect to these risks and uncertainties, we direct your attention to our news release and to our various filings with the SEC.

Also a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures was provided with the news release statutory accounting data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules and therefore is not reconciled to GAAP.

I'll turn the call and emergency.

Thank you Dennis.

Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today, everyone knows that this past year was full of challenges. We worked closely with the independent agents, who represent us to react quickly to changing needs of their clients as the pandemic progressed and to keep business flowing.

The communities, we serve so and unusually high level of catastrophe activity.

No one likes to witness the pain and destruction. These event spring and is one of our field claims representatives shine delivering support with empathy and warrants.

Our headquarters associates remain focused on our key priorities, even though they've had to adapt to working at home balancing family and business responsibilities and new ways.

Despite those challenges our associates and agents responded with determination and focus and helping us to produce the healthy financial performance we reported today.

Net income for the fourth quarter of 2020 rose, 68% compared with the fourth quarter, a year ago, including increases and the fair value of our equity securities portfolio.

Non-GAAP operating income increased 29% or $59 million for the quarter, despite higher catastrophe losses, reducing it by $19 million more than last year on an after tax basis.

Our 87, 3% property casualty combined ratio was four three percentage points better than a year ago, even with our catastrophe loss ratio that was one four points worse.

The current accident year loss and loss expense ratio before catastrophe loss effects continued to improve and was three nine percentage points better than last year.

Some of that is due to improving improved underwriting and some of it is attributable to the pandemic such as fewer auto accidents, resulting from reduced driving.

We believe a major reason that our underwriting performance continues to improve over time.

From the ongoing segmentation of our business retaining more profitable accounts and getting better pricing and less profitable business.

While walking away from opportunities when we judge profit margins to be too thin.

And at the same time, our financial results continue to benefit from efforts to diversify risks by product line and geography.

We believe we can successfully balance prudent underwriting and business growth to maintain the 'twenty and 'twenty combined ratio before catastrophe effects for a 2021 GAAP combined ratio and the low to mid 90% range.

We also believe our 2021 property casualty growth rate can be 6% or more.

We recognize that weather is significant changes and industry market conditions that influence insurance policy pricing trends are some of the variables that will affect the property casualty results. We ultimately report.

Turning to performance by operating unit, we work to earned new business by offering superior service and focus on personal relationships and a commitment to helping agents attain success.

Consolidated property casualty net written premiums rose, 7% and the fourth quarter of 2020 and 6% for the year.

We believe our premium growth and each of our insurance segments included underwriting and pricing discipline.

And 2020, we again managed our business to healthy levels of policy retention and with meaningful average renewal price increases for each of our property casualty segments.

Policy retention rates for both commercial and personal lines were similar to a year ago, continuing near the high end of the mid 80% range.

The combined ratio for our commercialized segment was <unk> four percentage points higher compared with the fourth quarter a year ago due to an increase of three eight points for the catastrophe loss ratio that included two three points for the Nashville bombing.

Net written premiums grew 3% for the quarter. Despite the fact that the pandemic continued to cause adverse economic effects.

Our personal lines segment grew fourth quarter net written premiums by 5%.

High net worth business continues to progress as planned and included $3 million and fourth quarter excess and surplus lines homeowners policies, we began offering and early 2020.

A combined ratio the combined ratio for personal lines was 18 percentage points better than the fourth quarter, a year ago, including catastrophe losses that were six three points better.

Our excess and surplus line segment again performed well producing and 83, 2% fourth quarter combined ratio and growing fourth quarter and full year net written premiums by 15%.

Both Cincinnati re and Cincinnati global experienced strong growth in 2020 and excess of 25% on a full year basis.

Conditions and markets, where they operate improved during the year and both businesses are well positioned for targeted profitable growth and 2021.

While catastrophe and and pandemic losses took a toll on both of those businesses Cincinnati re had an underwriting profit for the year Cincinnati global experienced and underwriting loss in 2020, but looking back since our acquisition, it's only about $3 million shy of and underwriting profit and is profitable if you consider.

For its investment income.

Our life insurance subsidiary continued its strong performance with fourth quarter net income up 67% last year from last year and non-GAAP operating income up 30%.

Term life insurance earned premiums grew by 6%.

Yeah.

Fourth quarter was again active regarding developments and the litigation landscape of pandemic related business interruption claims we continue to vigorously defend and lawsuits filed against the company the seek coverage for economic losses called by caused by the pandemic.

Yeah.

Recent courts have granted several of our motions to dismiss based on lack of physical loss or damage to property and plaintiffs have voluntarily dismissed others.

And Ohio, a federal court and the Northern District recently granted our request to certify a question to the highest Supreme Court if accepted the state Supreme Court will have an opportunity to settle the question under Ohio law of whether the presence of the Corona virus constitutes direct physical loss or damage to <unk>.

Pretty and thereby answered the basic question underlying the majority of business interruption claims.

And those cases that have produced per.

Preceded past initial motions, including North State Deli case, and North Carolina and is working its way through the appellate process. We continue to believe that business interruption coverage under our policy does not apply.

We feel that courts, ultimately should decide that economic loss alone without physical alteration of property does not constitute the direct physical loss or damage to property that is required to trigger coverage under a commercial property policy of insurance.

We are confident and our legal strategy given our understanding of the law and decisions made and the majority of other B court cases throughout the country to date.

To the extent and we have setbacks, we will continue to pursue.

Additional process.

On January one of this year, we again renewed each of our primary property and casualty treaties that transfer part of our risk to reinsurers.

For both our per risk treaties and our property catastrophe treaty terms and conditions for 2021 are fairly similar to 2020, except that they now exclude now include exclusions for communicable diseases, such as viruses and.

Cyber losses.

Keep in mind the parts of these trees include terms and conditions that cover multiple years as a result $114 million of coverage and effect for 2021 does not exclude communicable diseases or cyber losses.

Yes.

Rates for our casualty Treaty Roes and the mid single digit percent range rates rose and the high single digit percent range for our property treaties and we expect 2021 ceded premiums for these casualty and property treaties to total and total to be approximately $103 million.

I'll conclude my prepared remarks for now with the value creation ratio our primary measure of long term financial performance.

<unk> was 11, 7% for the fourth quarter of 2020, including nine one percentage points contributed by improved valuation of our investment portfolio.

And that brought our full year VCR to 14, 7% now Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell will highlight other areas of financial results.

Thank you, Steve and thanks to all of you for joining us today for fourth quarter of 2020 included very good investment performance and investment income grew 2% and full year 2020 growth at 4% matched 2019 divvy.

Dividend income rose, 7% for the fourth quarter net purchases for the equity portfolio during 2020 totaled $184 million in.

Interest income for our bond portfolio grew 2% on both a fourth quarter and full year basis.

The pretax average yield was 411% for the fourth quarter, one basis point below the same period a year ago.

The average pre tax yield for purchase bonds during full year, 2020 was 397% compared with $4, one and 4% the prior year.

And we continue to invest and the fixed maturity portfolio with net purchases during the year totaling $291 million.

Investment portfolio valuation changes for the fourth quarter of 2020 were again favorable for both our bond and stock portfolios.

The overall net gain was just over $1 $1 billion before tax effects, including $975 million for our equity portfolio and $149 million for our bond portfolio.

We ended the quarter with total investment portfolio and net appreciated value of nearly $6 billion, including almost $5 billion and our equity portfolio.

Strong cash flow again fueled investment income cash.

Cash flow from operating activities for the year 2020 generated nearly $1 5 billion up 23% from a year ago.

And as always we work and expense management, while also making strategic business investments and our full year 2020 property casualty underwriting expense ratio was 0.3 percentage points lower than last year.

During the fourth quarter and much of the year the pandemic caused lower spending for several items such as business travel.

As governmental restrictions ease and we continue to expect some of those expenses will return to levels for <unk>.

Similar to 2019 as a ratio of earned premiums.

Also if future catastrophe losses are at levels closer to our historical average agency profit sharing ratios should return to a more usual level.

Next I'll comment on reserves for losses and loss expenses first our approach aims for net amount and the upper half of the Actuarially estimated range of net loss and loss expense reserves.

During the fourth quarter of 2020, we recorded a satisfactory to ate ratio points for property casualty net favorable development on prior accident years. We now have 32 consecutive years of net favorable reserve development.

Full year 2020 favorable reserve development benefited our combined ratio by two three percentage points about a point lower than the annual average during the past three years, but nearly matching the two 5% ratio for 2017.

On and all lines basis by accident year net favorable reserve development for 2020 included $81 million for 2019 $56 million for 2018 $8 million for 2017.

And aggregate accident years prior to 2017 were unfavorable by $14 million.

Each quarter, we consider new information and estimate ultimate losses, and loss expenses by accident year and lines of business.

As we obtain and studying new data during the year, we update estimates as needed.

While we've accrued no material amounts for pandemic related losses from policies written by Cincinnati insurance.

We added $8 million during the fourth quarter to the reserve for legal expenses and defense business interruption claims.

And we reviewed the original assumptions and made adjustments to reflect our experience, including extended motion practice to respond to amended complaint and generally favorable litigation trends and decisions issued across the country and cases filed against the company and other insurance companies.

<unk>.

We also added $3 million to loss reserves for Cincinnati re and $2 million for since and global.

As previously disclosed both have some exposure to affirmative coverage for pandemic pandemic related business interruption.

None of Cincinnati Global's policies have language that applies to the UK Supreme Court ruling in January on the Fca's business interruption insurance test case.

Capital management continues to be and important matter to management and shareholders. The events of 2020 tested our financial strength and financial flexibility.

We believe both remained strong as we enter 2021.

And last year demonstrated the critical nature of our strong capital.

I'll conclude my prepared remarks, with the usual summary of fourth quarter contributions to book value per share. They represent the main drivers of our value creation ratio proper.

Property casualty underwriting increased book value by <unk> 92.

Life insurance operations increased book value by <unk>.

Investment income other than life insurance and reduced by non insurance items added 56.

Net investment gains and losses for the fixed income portfolio increased book value per share by 72.

Net investment gains and losses on the equity portfolio increased book value by $4 79.

And we declared a <unk> 60 per share and dividends to shareholders.

The net effect was a book value increase of $6 47 per share during the fourth quarter to a record high of $67 and <unk> per share and now I will turn the call back over to Steve.

Thank you Mike.

2020 gave us ample opportunity to demonstrate our ingenuity and our flexibility.

It's been a year, we won't soon forget and it's been a year that illustrated the strength of our company gives me great confidence and the future of Cincinnati financial.

As a reminder.

Mike and me today are Steve spray, Mark Shambo, Marty Hollenbeck and Theresa Hoffer.

Erica please open the call for questions.

As a reminder to ask a question you will need to press star one on your telephone to withdraw your question press the pound key.

And we can power and the Q&A roster.

Your first question comes from Phil Stefano with Deutsche Bank.

Yes, thanks, and good morning, and congrats on the quarter.

Sorry, if I missed this in the prepared remarks, the 90 basis point of pandemic losses and expenses and.

For the quarter and could you just provide some details on that.

The actual geography or what comprised of comprised of those reserves.

Yes, yes, so so related to the pandemic for the fourth quarter. So we reported and total it's going to be $13 $4 million, which is <unk> nine points on the estimated combined ratio so related to that so 8 million was related.

And to our legal expenses to defend ourselves on the CIC.

Policies that do not cover.

There and then there was three just a little over $3 million for Cincinnati re and then a little over $2 million for <unk> and those are the ones that have the affirmative coverage. So when you add all that up the 8 million three two years to about $13 million. So it's about nine nine.

And on the combined ratio.

If you want on a year to date basis.

And total now for the legal defense that was $30 million.

We had reported and then for Cincy re it was $19 million for <unk>. It was just under $12 million.

Got it and then.

Understood. These are small numbers, but.

How are you thinking about the ongoing nature of the pandemic.

Versus the affirmative coverage that you have from Cynthia oriented global and.

And the potential for any COVID-19 charges to continue into next year.

Yes, no thats a great question and we watch this every quarter every quarter.

We closed the books we've got.

We've got nailed the reserves the best we can so we do go through a process a lot of folks said are involved and estimating and so and this cases theres really three camps, you've got the Cincinnati global the Cincinnati re folks and then you've got the CIC primary business side, which is <unk>.

Merrily the claims side of the house, along with legal counsel as they look at the number of claims that have been filed the number of claims that are coming off.

Are we doing settling them quicker.

Just multiple factors that go into those estimates and those estimates are re done each quarter of course, when you take a look at the Cincinnati re side, the Cincinnati global side, they're looking at the policies that they have written that have the affirmative coverage, they know which ones they have and so they are.

We're monitoring those throughout the quarter and then looking at I'll say case basis reserves on those and making their best picks so we're coming and reporting to the ultimate that we believe at the end of each quarter.

That's a great great question and hopefully I answered the question.

Good day.

One more and I'll re queue.

Switching gears and thinking about new business I saw it and the.

The earnings release, there was commentary and new business premiums were down and in some ways. It reflected increased competition with fewer policies the adequate pricing levels.

At the same time, it feels like we're and this firming or firm or hard market. However, you want to.

But the terminology around it but.

Renewal pricing is up mid single digits, how do we reconcile this firming market that we're in versus the.

And the adequate pricing levels, maybe not being where they need to be and in some lines.

Hi, Phil Steve spray here.

I would answer that was affected.

Our industries and such a and it's just such a dynamic environment and.

Some of the classes of business or segments that you see that hit the headlines as far as the highest.

The firming market or hardening market would be maybe and larger D&O policies.

Larger excess casualty policies.

Commercial property that would be catastrophe exposed for cat exposed coastal and those are certainly hardening and it just varies across industry segment and class.

And when you get into.

More I'll call It main street business.

We're looking at every single risk on a case by case basis were.

We're trying to determine and adequate price for that business and I'd say our field underwriters are agents are working through each of those accounts again risk by risk and just doing a great job. We've continued to see the metrics of our pricing on new business and renewals and.

<unk> throughout the year.

So I think thats part of it another part of it that I would say that we're getting a lot of feedback from agencies and talked to enough of them that one of the phenomenon and the pandemic was just that.

Fewer policyholders, we're going to market.

And with their insurance and it typically was around let's say there was no pain.

With the incumbent carrier they werent getting a large rate increase they didn't have prior loss ratio problems or challenges and so.

They might just be sitting tight.

For the year, they've got other things to concern themselves with so again, it really gets back to adequate pricing.

Understood. Thank you.

Thanks, Phil.

Your next question is from Mike Zaremski with credit Suisse.

And good morning.

Hi, Mike.

Good morning.

Maybe you can kind of talk to you and excellent underlying margins again this quarter.

Yes.

If these guys.

And if you and your colleagues are recognizing what we've been seeing and hearing is kind of a more benign frequency.

Trend and 2020 and stuff.

And yet obviously, you can see from personal lines, but speaking more to the commercial lines kind of curious if you've been reflecting some of that frequency benefit.

And within the numbers.

Yes, Mike This is Steve Johnston, and we have seen improving trends and I think.

I think part of it comes from the ongoing effort that we've been doing and.

As Steve described in terms of our disciplined and pricing and underwriting and what we're doing with the segmentation of risks and.

Using all the tools that we bring to the market, including our claim service and everything that all of our field Representatives do and so we've seen ongoing improvement over time.

Pre COVID-19 in terms of our results no doubt COVID-19.

And its impact on the economy have had some benefits and it's just hard to bifurcate between the two how much you apply to one and how much.

You apply to the other.

I think the key point is that.

We're well positioned as we go forward.

With our field force with all the expertise that we have and as we look forward to appropriately pricing and writing risks and the future.

Okay, and I understand it's complicated.

And there's a lot of moving parts, maybe asked a different way maybe you can give.

And give us some color on kind of what loss trend.

You're assuming and the more recent accident years as that.

Is it kind of a low single digit loss trend you youre.

Sticking with <unk>.

And maybe that CDR.

Give us more color.

I think the key point with the loss trend is that rate makings perspective, and so when we talk about loss trend, we're always talking about well what our estimate of the trend, it's going to be applicable prospectively and.

The perspective rate rating policy period, so we will be making.

And for policies it'll be affect 2021 and beyond and so when we think about trends we think about.

With everything that would affect loss costs, including what we're doing with loss control underwriting.

The segmentation of our book.

And so thats the way, we look at loss cost trends not necessarily just.

This past year over the previous year something historic and.

And that in regard to that we do feel that.

The rates that we are promulgating are.

And in excess of that.

Loss cost trends that we're estimating.

Okay, Great and one last question.

And probably get back in the queue.

Thanks for bringing up <unk>.

<unk> Supreme Court certify.

And to request.

And answer.

A key question is that if you can remind us was that accepted by the court and is there a time line or time frame, we should think about.

No that is still open to the court they have not decided one way or the other on that yet.

Okay. So they haven't decided that yet.

The question just to be clear or day.

Yes, and that's.

That's correct. It is they haven't decided one way or the other whether they will see the question.

Still in process.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Thank you Mike.

And as a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, and that is star one if you would like to ask a question at this time.

Our next question is from Meyer Shields with K B W.

Yes.

One really quick one on <unk>, if I can can you disclose how much per day.

And remained on your 2020.

Past few reinsurance.

I'm trying to think if we used any on the <unk>.

It would have been just a little bit if we did.

And maybe like and the two 3 million of the layer.

Okay, that's fantastic.

Bigger picture question, Steve how much credibility.

Are you actually are you using for loss experience in 2020, given how unusual the year was.

Yes, and that's the balance between.

And then I'm.

And that when somebody that and needs to be told this you're very knowledgeable.

But it's just a balance that they are using.

<unk> responsiveness and stability to the trends they are looking at it really and detail it's not like one answer across the company as they do great work and so forth it's going on.

By state by coverage by by line by year end.

I think they're doing a good job of prudently.

Reflecting responsiveness and stability.

It's a seasoned and experienced and talented group of actuaries and I think and.

And to that key point of where we would be prospectively rate adequacy wise.

I think we're going to be and good position.

Okay.

And then I know you've talked in the past about your comfort with the language in the.

The CIP policies.

Are there any policy language changes planned for I guess excess and surplus and <unk> are on reinsurance to exclude communicable diseases.

I would say.

And our Cincinnati re.

They have.

And as they've renewed policies that we reinsure there've been some changes.

There.

Sure.

And that comes to mind.

Okay. That's perfect. Thank you so much.

Thanks for there.

Yeah.

Your next question is from Scott <unk> with <unk>.

RBC capital markets.

Hi, good morning.

And Scott I'm wondering if you could I'm wondering if you could first talk on the 6% premium growth.

And the expectation you are talking about can you just kind of flush that and in terms of the areas that you might find most attractive on that is it going to be kind of similar to Q4, where you had.

Specialty reinsurance and E&S kind of driving that or how.

How are you how are you looking at that kind of more by segment.

Yes, that's an overall number and I do think it's consistent with a continuation of what we've seen.

And obviously, we're out there competing every day and the market and and.

As the market ebbs and flows and changes that it may.

It may change as we go out through the year, but.

And it reflects.

More of a I think what <unk> seen with an emphasis towards those that are.

And a little bit slower to grow a little bit faster I think personal lines in particular has trended pretty nicely here over the last quarter of course excess and surplus lines has been double digits. So yes, I think it's going to be.

Yeah.

Not inconsistent with what we've seen.

Okay.

And then along those lines on personal lines, and you mentioned and the press release to the <unk>.

Significant growth and you've seen and the high net worth business, which was up 25%.

And just wondering if you can talk about sort of the long term opportunities there and yes. It does seem like it's becoming a little bit and a more competitive environment. There, but just your plans on you've come a long way and with that but your plans on scaling that up.

And we're kind of and the next three to five years.

Geography or distribution or just any other thoughts on that.

Sure Scott Yeah, we're extremely pleased with.

And what we're doing not just and high net worth but I think a key point here is we our strategy has always been and agency strategy. So I think we've got ourselves and a and a really good position with our agents historically, we were predominantly and middle market personal lines company, it's about $1 billion of our.

1 billion and a half and over the last seven years through expertise products.

Service you name it we've grown that high net worth to where it's 500 million plus today and.

I think I think we are in a really good position.

And sophisticated pricing tools that we have the expertise that we brought onboard that we can as we've always wanted to be just be the most important partner for our agents across the entire personal lines segment, but as far as expanding territories for high net worth we've pretty much.

And we've pretty much done that over the last five years, we've gotten into the territories where that business is.

Nominally resides and I think we've got ourselves and a good position with our agents.

And they've shown a lot of confidence and us obviously with the growth we have.

I think we've responded.

As we would expect with claims and our coverage forms and such so.

I just really.

Feel good about the direction, we're going with personal lines and general both on pricing excuse me on profitability and growth.

Okay.

That's helpful detail and then just the last one was on the reserve releases and kind of returned to a sort of a.

Does it run rate you saw in the first half of the year during the fourth quarter and wanted to get a little more detail on.

Two specific areas. The first is the commercial casualty which saw.

About six points of releases and then.

You had a modest reserve addition, and homeowners are three points just wondering if you could.

I'll provide a little more detail on both of those areas.

Yes.

Mike and thanks for the question so, yes, youre right. So overall for the for the year two three points.

And overall that was a little bit on the probably I'll say the lower side, we've been running I'll say three to five points in any given year.

But the two three points just overall is very similar to 2017 and actually 2014, and so last year was probably a little bit on the higher end of the range. This year, a little bit on the lower and thinker.

Thinking about it on a year year to date basis.

And where we added reserves unfavorable was commercial auto.

And that was up $17 million.

That was mainly due to some large losses and 2016. So the encouraged we're coming in and a little bit higher so we adjusted the ultimate looking back at that.

That year.

As it relates to we also added a little bit on since he re and also on the surplus.

And on the surplus lines CNS that was 2016 and prior primarily that was coming in since we re that was a little bit more of a current accident year.

Related to commercial casualty workers' comp.

Was actually we were just seeing favorable development across several years and so when you take a look at that on a year to date basis I'm going to say it was kind of evenly spread between accident year $19 18, 17, and so for so.

And just not one specific item that made that.

Jump up with net favorable development, but over the.

Various accident years so.

As I said in my prepared comments, we follow a consistent approach and we've got some of the great same professionals that are.

Coming up with the Ultimate reserve picks so will follow will follow their guidance.

Great question. Thank you.

Thank you.

Your final question is from Matt for Ed Nelson, a private investor.

As it may.

Good morning, Brad.

Hey, good morning, a couple of questions forward thinking and income taxes with the new administration, and any profitability and any thought or youre working on that the other thing that concerns me sharing automobiles here in California, and I'd say 50 cents per gallon tax for the state for the road repairs and I think the federal 17.

My name and Butler grid car and bragging that he doesn't have to pay any of that any thought on how thats going to be done and has it grown and affect the auto policies at all.

Fred This is Mike I'll take the first question and then.

And then we'll let the second question someone else pick that up so yes, youre right with the new administration.

And there was a lot of talk before the election of which direction. It would go in.

When you look at capital Hill.

And who's running what.

We would suspect that there probably will be at some point.

Tax changes that will be coming.

We've heard things are 25%, 28% what will it be when will it be.

And looking at that modeling it out.

And so forth, but over the years.

Rates have changed and we've changed with it. So we'll go with what comes at Us and.

And work to win.

Thank you and I think.

On the cars Fred for just continue to look closely at those trends in terms of the.

And how the driving goes and California and in other states.

And how government policy interacts with that and be in a position.

And to reflect it good question.

Okay. Good question I appreciate and thank you so much as a lot of changes coming.

Coming and so and thank you and I appreciate it.

And I just wanted to say thank you Jim Miller too.

Yes. Thank you Jim Miller for those of you don't know he was our.

And Chief investment Officer, and just passed away here and the last couple of weeks and.

He will be greatly missed by his family and the community and the company. Thank you for mentioning that Fred Thank you.

Appreciate you too.

I've been a shareholder since 1992, when the book value was below $28, it's hard to believe.

Okay.

I appreciate your enthusiasm for our company for Ed. Thank you guys and gals.

Thank you Andrew and thank you.

And there are no further questions in queue at this time management for closing remarks. Please.

Thank you Erika and thanks to all of you for joining US today, we look forward to speaking with you again on our first quarter 2021 call. Thank you and have a great day.

Yes.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating you may now disconnect.

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And ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by and welcome to the Cincinnati Financial Corporation fourth quarter and full year two.

And then 'twenty earnings conference call.

Time, all participants have been placed in a listen only mode.

Speakers presentation, there will be a question and answer session to ask a question. During this session you will need to press star one on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

Require any further assistance. Please press star zero and I would now like to hand, the conference over to Dennis Mcdaniel Investor Relations Officer. Thank you. Please go ahead Sir.

Hello. This is Dennis Mcdaniel Cincinnati financial Thank you for joining us for our conference call late.

Late yesterday, we issued a news from the hits on our results along with our supplemental financial package, including our year and investment portfolio.

To find copies of any of these documents. Please visit our investor website, <unk> Dot com slash investors.

And the shortest route to the information is the quarterly results link and and.

<unk> and menu on the far left.

And this call first year from Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Johnson, and then from Chief Financial Officer, Microsoft After their prepared remarks investors participating on the call may ask questions at that time, some responses may be made by others and the room with us, including Chief investment Officer, Marty Hollenbeck and Cincinnati.

<unk> Chief Insurance Officer, Steve Spray, Chief claims officer, Mark Shambaugh, and senior Vice President of corporate Finance Theresa Hopper.

Please.

And also a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures was provided with the news release statutory accounting data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules and.

And therefore is not reconciled to GAAP now ill turn the call of our American states. Thank.

Thank you Dennis.

And the communities, we serve so and unusually high level of catastrophe activity.

No one likes to witness the pain and destruction. These events spring and is one of our field claims representative shine delivery and support with empathy and warrants.

Our headquarters associates remain focused on our key priorities, even though they've had to adapt to working at home balancing family and business responsibilities and new ways.

Despite those challenges our associates and agents responded, but determination and focus helping us to produce the healthy financial performance we reported today.

Net income for the fourth quarter of 2020 rose, 68% compared with the fourth quarter, a year ago, including increases and the fair value of our equity securities portfolio.

Non-GAAP operating income increased 29% were $59 million for the quarter, despite higher catastrophe losses, reducing it by $19 million more than last year on an after tax basis.

Our 87, 3% property casualty combined ratio was four three percentage points better than a year ago, even with a catastrophe loss ratio that was one four points worse.

The current accident year loss and loss expense ratio before catastrophe loss effects continue to improve and was three nine percentage points better than last year.

Some of that is due to improving improved underwriting and some of it is attributable to the pandemic such as fewer auto accidents, resulting from reduced driving.

We believe a major reason that our underwriting performance continues to improve over time.

From the ongoing segmentation of our business retaining more profitable accounts and getting better pricing on less profitable business.

While walking away from opportunities when we judge profit margins to be too thin.

And at the same time, our financial results continue to benefit from efforts to diversify risks by product line and geography.

We believe we can successfully balance prudent underwriting and business growth to maintain the 2020 combined ratio before catastrophe effects for a 2021 GAAP combined ratio and the low to mid 90% range.

We also believe our 2021 property casualty growth rate can be 6% or more.

We recognize that weather and significant changes and industry market conditions that influence insurance policy pricing trends are some of the variables that will affect the property casualty results. We ultimately report.

Turning to performance by operating unit, we work to earned new business by offering superior service, our focus on personal relationships and our commitment to helping agents attain success.

Consolidated property casualty net written premiums rose, 7% and the fourth quarter of 2020 and 6% for the year.

We believe our premium growth and each of our insurance segments included underwriting and pricing discipline.

And 2020, we again managed our business to healthy levels of policy retention and with meaningful average renewal price increases for each of our property casualty segments.

Policy retention rates for both commercial and personal lines were similar to a year ago, continuing near the high end of day mid 80% range.

Net written premiums grew 3% for the quarter. Despite the fact that the pandemic continued to cause adverse economic effects.

Our personal lines segment grew fourth quarter net written premiums by 5%.

Our high net worth business continues to progress as planned and included $3 million and fourth quarter excess and surplus lines homeowners policies, we began offering and early 2020.

A combined ratio for the combined ratio for personal lines was 18 percentage points better than the fourth quarter, a year ago, including catastrophe losses that were six three points better.

Our excess and surplus line segment again performed well producing and 83, 2% fourth quarter combined ratio and growing fourth quarter and full year net written premiums by 15%.

Both Cincinnati re and Cincinnati global experienced strong growth in 2020 and excess of 25% on a full year basis.

Conditions and markets, where they operate improve during the year and both businesses are well positioned for targeted profitable growth and 2021.

While catastrophe and pandemic losses took a toll on both of those businesses Cincinnati re had an underwriting profit for the year Cincinnati global experienced and underwriting loss in 2020, but looking back since our acquisition, it's only about $3 million shy of and underwriting profit and is profitable if you consider.

Its investment income.

Our life insurance subsidiary continued its strong performance with fourth quarter net income up 67% last year from last year and non-GAAP operating income up 30%.

Term life insurance earned premiums grew by 6%.

Yeah.

Recent courts have granted several of our motions to dismiss based on lack of physical loss or damage to property and plaintiffs have voluntarily dismissed others.

Property and thereby answered the basic question underlying the majority of business interruption claims.

And those cases that are produced and a preceded past initial motions, including North state Deli case, and North Carolina and is working its way through the appellate process. We continue to believe that business interruption coverage under our policy does not apply.

We are confident and our legal strategy given our understanding of the law and decisions made and the majority of other by core cases throughout the country to date.

To the extent, we have setbacks, we will continue to pursue judicial process.

On January one of this year, we again renewed each of our primary property and casualty treaties that transfer part of our risk to reinsurers.

For both our per risk treaties and our property catastrophe treaty terms and conditions for 2021 are fairly similar to 2020 excess.

And that they now exclude now include exclusions for communicable diseases, such as viruses and cyber losses.

I'll conclude my prepared remarks for now with the value creation ratio our primary measure of long term financial performance.

Our VCR was 11, 7% for the fourth quarter of 2020, including nine one percentage points contributed by improved valuation of our investment portfolio.

And that brought our full year VCR to 14, 7%.

Now, our Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell will highlight other areas of financial results.

Thank you, Steve and thanks to all of you for joining us today for fourth quarter of 2020 included very good investment performance and <unk>.

<unk> income grew 2% and full year 2020 growth at 4% matched 2019 divot.

Dividend income rose, 7% for the fourth quarter net purchases for the equity portfolio during 2020 totaled $184 million and.

Interest income for our bond portfolio grew 2% on both a fourth quarter and full year basis for.

Pretax average yield was 411% for the fourth quarter, one basis point below the same period a year ago.

The average pre tax yield for purchase bonds during full year, 2020 was 397% compared with four one and 4% the prior year.

We continue to invest and the fixed maturity portfolio with net purchases during the year totaling $291 million.

Investment portfolio valuation changes for the fourth quarter of 2020 were again favorable for both our bond and stock portfolios.

The overall net gain was just over $1 $1 billion before tax effects, including $975 million for our equity portfolio and $149 million for our bond portfolio.

We ended the quarter with total investment portfolio and net appreciated value of nearly $6 billion, including almost $5 billion and our equity portfolio.

Strong cash flow again fueled investment income cash.

Cash flow from operating activities for the year 2020 generated nearly $1 5 billion up 23% from a year ago.

And as always we work and expense management, while also making strategic business investments our full year 2020 property casualty underwriting expense ratio was 0.3 percentage points lower than last year.

During the fourth quarter and much of the year the pandemic caused lower spending for several items such as business travel.

As governmental restrictions ease and we continue to expect some of those expenses will return to levels.

Fairly similar to 2019 as a ratio of earned premiums.

Also if future catastrophe losses are at levels closer to our historical average agency profit sharing ratios should return to a more usual level.

Next I'll comment on reserves for losses and loss expenses for.

First our approach aims for net amount and the upper half of the Actuarially estimated range of net loss and loss expense reserves.

On and all lines basis by accident year net favorable reserve development for 2020 included $81 million for 2019 $56 million for 2018 $8 million for 2017.

And aggregate accident years prior to 2017 were unfavorable by $14 million.

Each quarter, we consider new information and estimate ultimate losses, and loss expenses by accident year and lines of business.

As we obtain and studying new data during the year, we update estimates as needed.

While we've accrued no material amounts for pandemic related losses from policies written by Cincinnati insurance.

We added $8 million during the fourth quarter to the reserve for legal expenses and defense business interruption claims.

We reviewed the original assumptions and made adjustments to reflect our experience, including extended motion practice to respond to amended complaints and generally favorable litigation trends and decisions issued across the country and cases filed against the company and other insurance companies.

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We also added $3 million to loss reserves for Cincinnati re and $2 million for Cincinnati and global.

As previously disclosed both have some exposure to affirmative coverage for pandemic pandemic related business interruption.

None of Cincinnati Global's policies have language that applies to the UK Supreme Court ruling in January on the FCA is business interruption insurance test case.

Capital management continues to be and important matter day management and shareholders. The events of 2020 tested our financial strength and financial flexibility.

We believe both remains strong as we enter 2021.

And last year demonstrated the critical nature of our strong capital.

I'll conclude my prepared remarks, with the usual summary of fourth quarter contributions to book value per share. They represent the main drivers of our value creation ratio.

Property casualty underwriting increased book value by <unk> 92.

Life insurance operations increased book value by <unk> and.

Investment income other than life insurance and reduced by non insurance items added 56.

Net investment gains and losses for the fixed income portfolio increased book value per share by 72.

Net investment gains and losses on the equity portfolio increased book value by $4 79.

And we declared a <unk> 60 per share and dividends to shareholders.

The net effect was a book value increase of $6 47 per share during the fourth quarter to a record high $67 and <unk> <unk> per share and now I will turn the call back over to Steve.

Thank you Mike.

2020 gave us ample opportunity to demonstrate our ingenuity and our flexibility.

It's been a year, we won't soon forget and it's been a year that illustrated the strength of our company, giving me great confidence and the future of Cincinnati financial.

As a reminder.

And I can meet today are Steve spray, Mark Shambo, Marty Hollenbeck, and Theresa Hoffer Erika.

Erica please open the call for questions.

As a reminder to ask a question you will need to press star one on your telephone to withdraw.

And your question press the pound key.

Please standby, while we compile the Q&A roster.

Your first question comes from Phil Stefano with Deutsche Bank.

Yes, thanks, good morning, and congrats on the quarter.

Sorry, if I missed this in the prepared remarks the.

And 90 basis point of pandemic losses, and expenses and the quarter and then could you just provide some details.

The actual geography or what comprised of comprised of those reserves.

Yes, yes, so so related to the pandemic for the fourth quarter. So we reported and total it's going to be $13 $4 million, which is <unk> nine points on the estimated.

And bind ratio so related to that so 8 million was related to legal expenses to defend ourselves on the CIC.

<unk> that do not cover.

And on the combined ratio.

If you want on a year to date basis.

And total now for the legal defense that was $30 million that we had reported and then for cincy re it was $19 million for <unk>. It was just under 12 million and.

Got it and then.

And I understood. These are small numbers, but.

How are you thinking about the ongoing nature of the pandemic.

The affirmative coverage that you have from Cynthia oriented global and the potential for any COVID-19 charges.

To continue into next year.

Yes, no that's a great question and we watch this every quarter every quarter.

As we close the books we've got.

Got nailed the reserves the best we can so we do go through a process a lot of folks said are involved and estimating and so and this cases theres really three camps, you've got the Cincinnati global the Cincinnati re folks and then you've got the CIC primary business side, which is primarily.

Early the claims side of the house, along with legal counsel as they look at the number of claims that have been filed the number of claims that are coming off.

Are we doing settling them quicker. There's just multiple factors that go into those estimates and those estimates are redone each quarter and of course, when you take a look at the Cincinnati re side, the since and global side, they're looking at the policies that they have written that have the afirma.

And of coverage, they know which ones they have and so they are monitoring those throughout the quarter and then looking at I'll say case basis reserves on those and making their best picks. So we are coming and reporting to the ultimate that we believe at the end of each quarter.

It's a great great question and hopefully I answered the question.

No that's good and just one more and I'll re queue.

Switching gears and thinking about new business I saw on the day.

The earnings release, there was commentary and new business premiums were down and in some ways. It reflected increased competition with fewer policies adequate pricing levels.

At the same time, it feels like we're and this firming or firm or hard market. However, you want to.

But the terminology around it but your renewal price ends up mid single digits. How do we reconcile this firming market that we're in versus the deep adequate pricing levels, maybe not being where they need to be and in some lines.

Hi, Phil Steve spray here.

I would answer that was affected.

<unk>.

Our industry is in such a and it's just such a dynamic environment and.

Some of the classes of business or segments that you see that hit the headlines as far as the highest.

And the firming market or hardening market would be maybe and larger D&O policies.

Larger excess casualty policies.

Commercial property that would be catastrophe exposed for cat exposed coastal.

Those are certainly hardening and it just varies across industry segment and class.

When you get into.

More I'll call. It main street business, we're looking at every single risk on a case by case basis were.

Improved throughout the year.

So I think thats part of it another part of it that I would say that it's getting a lot of feedback from agencies and talked to enough of them that one of the phenomenon and the pandemic was just that.

Fewer.

Policyholders, we're going to market.

And with their insurance and it typically was around let's say there was no pain.

With the incumbent carrier they weren't getting a large rate increase they didn't have prior loss ratio problems or challenges and so.

They might just be sitting tight.

And for the year, they've got other things to concern themselves with so again, it really gets back to adequate pricing.

Understood. Thank you.

Thanks, Phil.

Your next question is from Mike Zaremski with credit Suisse.

Hey, good morning.

Hi, Mike.

Good morning.

Maybe you can kind of talk to you and excellent underlying margins again this quarter and I was curious.

If you guys.

And if you and your colleagues are recognizing what we've been seeing and hearing is kind of a more benign frequency.

Trend and 2020.

And obviously, you can see and personal lines, but speaking Marty and commercial lines kind of curious if you've been reflecting some of that frequency benefit.

And within the numbers.

Yes, Mike This is Steve Johnston, and and we have seen improving trends and I think.

I think part of and it comes from the ongoing effort that we've been doing and.

Steve described in terms of our disciplined and pricing and underwriting and what we're doing with the segmentation of risks and <unk>.

Using all the tools that we bring to the market, including our claim service and everything that all of our field Representatives do and so we've seen ongoing improvement over time.

Pre COVID-19 in terms of our results.

Doubt Covid and.

And its impact on the economy have had some benefits.

And it's just hard to bifurcate between the two how much you apply to one and how much.

And you apply to the other.

I think the key point is that.

We're well positioned as we go forward with our field force with all the expertise that we have as we look forward to appropriately pricing and writing and risks in the future.

Okay.

I understand it's complicated and.

And Theres a lot of moving parts, maybe asked a different way maybe you can.

Give us some color on kind of what loss trend.

And you're assuming and the more recent accident years as that.

Is it kind of a low single digit loss trend you youre sticking with.

Maybe that could get.

Give us more color.

And I think the key point with the loss trend is that rate makings perspective, and so when we talk about loss trend, we're always talking about well what our estimate of the trend thats going to be applicable prospectively.

Prospective rate rating policy period, so we will be making.

And for policies it'll be affect 2021 and beyond and so when we think about trends we think about.

And with everything that would affect loss costs, including what we're doing with loss control underwriting.

And the segmentation of our book.

And so that's the way we look at loss cost trends not necessarily just.

This past year over the previous year something historic and.

And that in regard to that we do feel that.

The rates that we are promulgating are.

And excess of loss.

And loss cost trends that we're estimating.

Okay, Great and one last question.

We get back in the queue and you.

Thanks for bringing up the Ohio Supreme Court certify.

Request and.

To answer.

A key question is that if you can remind us was that accepted by the court and is there a time line or time frame, we should think about.

No that is still open to the court they have not decided one way or the other on that yet.

Okay. So they haven't decided that yet.

Okay.

The question just to be clear or day.

Yes, that's.

That's correct. It is they haven't decided one way or the other whether they will see the question.

Still in process.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Thank you Mike.

And as a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, and that is star one if you would like to ask a question at this time.

Our next question is from mayor Shields with K B W.

Yes.

One really quick one on <unk>, if I can can you disclose how much per day.

And we remain on your 2020.

Catastrophe reinsurance.

I'm trying to think if we used any on the Duraid show.

It would have been just a little bit if we did.

And maybe like and the two 3 million of day layer.

Okay. So that's fantastic.

Bigger picture question, Steve how much credibility.

Are you actually are you using for loss experience in 2020, given how unusual the year was.

Yes, and that's the balance between.

And then.

Telus invited and needs to be told this you're very knowledgeable, but it's just a balance it they are using.

<unk> responsiveness and stability to the trends they are looking at it really and detail it's not like one answer across the company as they do great work and so forth it's going on.

By state by coverage by by line by year end.

I think they're doing a good job of prudently.

Reflecting responsiveness and stability.

It's a seasoned and experienced and talented group of actuaries and I think and.

And to that key point of where we would be prospectively rate adequacy wise.

I think we're going to be and good position.

Okay.

And then I know you've talked in the past about your comfort with the language and I get.

The CIP policies.

Are there any policy language changes planned for I guess excess and surplus and <unk> are on reinsurance to exclude communicable diseases.

I would say.

And our Cincinnati re.

They have.

As they've renewed policies that we reinsure there've been some changes.

There.

Sure.

Be the one that comes to mind.

Okay. That's perfect. Thank you so much.

Thanks for their.

Yeah.

Your next question is from Scott <unk> with RBC capital markets.

Hi, good morning.

Scott I Wonder if you could.

Wondering if you could first talk on the 6% premium growth.

Expectation you are talking about can you just kind of flush that and in terms of the areas that you might find most attractive on that is it going to be kind of similar to Q4, where you had.

Specialty reinsurance and E&S kind of driving that or how.

How are you how are you looking at that kind of more by segment.

Yes, that's an overall number and I do think it's consistent with a continuation of what we've seen.

Obviously, we're out there competing every day and the market and and.

As the market ebbs and flows and changes it may.

It may change as we go out through the year, but.

It reflects.

More of a I think what you've seen with an emphasis towards those that are.

Yeah.

Not inconsistent with what we've seen.

Okay.

And then along those lines and personal lines and you mentioned and the press release to the <unk>.

Significant growth and you've seen and the high net worth business, which was up 25%.

And just wondering if you can talk about sort of the long term opportunities there and yes. It does seem like it's becoming a little bit of a more competitive environment. There, but just your plans on you've come a long way and with that but your plans on scaling that up.

And what kind of and the next three to five years.

Geography or distribution or just any other thoughts on that.

Sure Scott.

Extremely pleased with.

Of our 1 billion and a half.

And over the last seven years through expertise product.

Service you name it we've grown that high net worth to where it's $500 million plus today and.

I think I think we're in a really good position.

<unk> pricing tools that we have the expertise that we brought onboard that we can as we've always wanted to be just be the most important partner for our agents across the entire personal lines segment, but as far as expanding territories for high net worth we've pretty much.

And pretty much done that over the last five years, we've gotten into the territories where that business is.

Predominantly resides and I think we've got ourselves and a good position with our agents.

And a lot of confidence and us obviously with the growth we have.

We've responded.

And as we would expect with claims and our coverage forms and such so.

Just really.

Feel good about the direction, we're going with personal lines and general both on pricing excuse me on profitability and growth.

Okay.

That's helpful detail and then just the last one was on the reserve releases and kind of return to sort of a.

Does it run rate you saw in the first half of the year during the fourth quarter and wanted to get a little more detail on.

Two specific areas. The first is the commercial casualty, which saw about six points for releases and then.

You had a modest reserve addition, and homeowners and three points just wondering if you could for.

And a little more detail on both of those areas.

Yes.

And as Mike and thanks for the question. So, yes, youre right. So overall for the for the year two three points.

And overall that was a little bit on the probably I'll say the lower side, we've been running I'll say three to five points in any given year.

And about it on a year year to date basis.

And where we added reserves it was unfavorable was commercial auto.

And that was up $17 million.

And that was mainly due to some large losses and 2016. So the encouraged we're coming in and a little bit higher so we adjusted the ultimate looking back at that.

And that year.

As it relates to we also added a little bit on since he re and also on the surplus.

On the surplus lines and CNS that was 2016 and prior primarily that was coming in since we really that was a little bit more of a current accident year.

<unk> to commercial casualty workers' comp.

And that was actually we were just seeing favorable development across several years and so when you take a look at that on a year to date basis I'm going to say it was kind of evenly spread between accident year $19 18.

<unk> and so for so.

Not one specific item that made that.

Jump up with net favorable development, but over the various accident years so as.

As I said in my prepared comments, we follow a consistent approach and we've got some of the great same professionals that are coming up with the ultimate reserve picks so will follow will follow with our guidance.

Great question. Thank you.

Thank you.

Your final question is from Fred Nelson, a private investor.

As it may.

Good morning, Brad.

Hey, good morning, a couple of questions forward thinking net income taxes, with the new administration, and any profitability or any thought or youre working on that the other thing that concerns me sharing automobiles here in California, and I'd say 50 cents per gallon tax for the state for the road repairs and I think the federal for 17.

My name and brand luxury car and bragging that he doesn't have to pay any of that any thought on how thats going to be done and has it grown and affect the auto policies at all.

Fred This is Mike I'll take the first question and then.

And then we'll let the second question someone else pick that up so yes, youre right with the new administration.

And there was a lot of talk before the election of which direction. It would go in.

When you look at capital Hill.

And who's running what.

We would suspect that there probably will be at some point.

Tax changes that will be coming.

We've heard things are 25%, 28% what will it be when will it be.

We're looking at that modeling it out.

And so forth, but well.

Over the years tax.

Tax rates have changed and we've changed with it. So we'll go with what comes at Us and.

And work to win.

Thank you and I think on the cars Fred for just continue to look closely at those trends in terms of the.

And how the driving goes and California and other states.

And how government policy interact with that and B and are positioned to reflect it good question.

Thanks for your question no I appreciate it so and thank you so much as a lot of changes coming.

And so and thank you and I appreciate it.

And I just wanted to say thank you Jim Miller too.

Yes. Thank you Jim Miller for those of you don't know he was our.

Chief investment officer, and just passed away here and the last couple of weeks and.

He will be greatly missed by his family and the community and the company. Thank you for mentioning that Fred Thank you.

Appreciate you too.

I've been a shareholder since 1992, when the book value was below $28, it's hard to believe.

We appreciate your.

<unk> for our company for ads.

For you guys and gals. Thank.

Thank you I'm sure and thank you.

And there are no further questions in queue at this time management your closing remarks. Please.

Thank you Erika and thanks to all of you for joining US today, we look forward to speaking with you again on our first quarter 2021 call. Thank you and have a great day.

Yes.

And ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating you may now disconnect.

Q4 2020 Cincinnati Financial Corp Earnings Call

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