Q4 2020 BWX Technologies Inc Earnings Call
At this time all participants are in a listen only mode.
Following the company's prepared remarks, we will conduct the question and the answer session and instructions will be given at that time.
I'd now like to turn the conference call over to our host Mark Kratz Bwxt's director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you Jamie.
And welcome to Bwxt's fourth quarter of 2020 earnings call. Joining me today are Rex <unk>, President and CEO, and David Black Senior Vice President and CFO.
On today's call, we will discuss certain matters that constitute forward looking statements and involve risks and uncertainties, including those described and the safe Harbor provision found in yesterday's earnings release, and the company's SEC filings.
We will also provide non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled the GAAP measures and the quarterly materials that are available on the BWXT website with that Rex I will turn the call from D. A.
Thank you Mark and good morning, everyone.
Yesterday, we reported fourth quarter results and we will get into that during the <unk>.
During this call, but I first wanted to thank our 6700 employees for their hard work grit and dedication to the BWXT mission through 2020.
Despite battling of public health crisis, and other business challenges, we met our commitments to customers and shareholders made tangible progress toward future growth initiatives and produce financial results that were well above expectations.
And challenging times like these our corporate purpose, which is to employ nuclear technology to solve some of the world's most important problems as of clarity on call. The reminds us of our commitment to the highest safety security ethical and environmental stewardship standards.
We continued to demonstrate strong financial and operational results by staying focused on our mission, while holding to our core values and 2020, we exceeded revenue and earnings per share guidance, resulting and topline growth of 12% and earnings per share growth of 16% setting new top and Bottomline Rex.
For the company.
Owing to our 2020 earnings performance, we achieved the long term guidance established over three years ago and are therefore retiring yet today the.
The company's 2021 guidance reflects more modest growth, but remains aligned with the multi year strategy against which we continue to execute our future growth opportunities are driven by the company's mission and strategy and we have the building blocks for continued growth over the medium and long term let.
Let me give you a quick business update and some insight into our focus for 2021 before turning the call over to David.
The nuclear operations group finished out of strong year, but it was not without challenges, particularly in the fourth quarter.
We saw a dramatic increase and active Covid case counts, leading to a meaningful number of absences toward the end of the year, which ultimately has some limited impact on shop volume on.
Most of all of the active cases had been determined to be non workplace transmission. So our protocols and continue to effectively mitigate the probability of contracting the virus at work.
On a positive note we are seeing active case counts come down significantly relative to January and early and early February and similar to what we are seeing across the country.
Despite the adversity, our business remains strong and we do not anticipate of material impact from absenteeism and 2021, our backlog remains robust and the team remains dedicated to the customers and companies mission success.
To that and we completed the negotiation of the next multiyear pricing agreement that is on track for a formal contract award towards the end of the first quarter or early second quarter pending final government approval to remind everyone. On this multiyear pricing agreement is very similar to the one we announced in February of 2019 of two year agreement, primarily supporting <unk>.
And your class and Columbia class fuel and component production.
And the fourth quarter. We also ship the second of three Virginia payload module missile tubes the.
The team has completed all weld repair efforts and we expect to complete the remaining backlog from missile tube production as that program rolls off and the coming year or so.
And the nuclear power group, our principal customers, Ontario power generation and Bruce power on.
And effectively managing Covid protocols as we saw a pickup and the second half of 2020 with service outage activity.
And the medical business signs of recovery persist as fourth quarter revenues were only down mid single digits and we finished 2020 down about 7% driven largely by some deferral of demand, particularly for elective procedures.
Last summer, we hired Martin Coombs of seasoned executive and the pharmaceutical and medical technology sectors to lead the BWXT nuclear medicine business.
Centered and Martin has been busy positioning the organization for future transformation recruiting top industry talent optimizing production and navigating near term market disruptions.
BWXT medical is well positioned and 2021 to capture latent demand from a rebound and electric procedures and increased volume and other products.
We expect the medical business to grow about 30% over the course of the next year confirming the strong platform. We acquired in 2018 as part of the Nordea on acquisition.
In addition to a positive outlook and the base medical business I continue to be pleased with progress.
Martin and the medical team are making towards technetium 99 generate of commercialization.
While there are no new significant milestones to report from the fourth quarter of 2020, we are rapidly completing major facility modifications and Kanata and we have begun and sale of equipment installation and the radiochemistry line.
We expect to complete significant milestones in the coming quarters, and we will continue to provide updates.
And lastly in the nuclear services group, the 2021 opportunity pipeline remains robust BWXT led team submitted proposals for the management and operating services contract at Y 12, Pantex and.
And the Savannah River integrated mission cleanup contract and both of which are expected to be awarded into transition late this year.
Beyond the aforementioned contracts BWXT remains postured to help the Doe with its evolving mission at Hanford is that procurement process has been significantly expanded to include additional scope.
Combining our previously planned separate contract direct feed low activity waste into the new opportunity.
As we progress into 2021, we are acutely focused on completing the MLG capital campaign as we edified, the company's premier position and naval nuclear reactors through outstanding execution. We also expect to provide incremental validation of our progress against significant medium and long term opportunities, including achieving critical milestones and are disruptive.
Technetium 99 generator product.
<unk> to rebuild the Doe site management, and environmental remediation portfolio and standing up a strong presence and the emerging and the emerging nuclear micro reactor market.
Capital allocation priorities for 2021 remain largely unchanged, we continue to see long term shareholder value creation and preservation through the capital investments and the Navy business and the Tech 99 generator production line.
The board of directors increased the quarterly dividend of 11% last week, resulting in a 250% increase since spin just five five years ago.
This ash and reflects the confidence and bwxt's ability to generate future cash.
As the two key capital campaigns roll off over the next 24 months, we anticipate a strong return to free cash flow generation and.
In order to maximize long term shareholder value, we will maintain a flexible and strategic view about how much of that cash we return to shareholders and how much we reinvest and the business.
And with that I will turn the call over to David to discuss financial results and the 2021 guidance details.
Thanks, Rex and good morning, everyone, starting with the 2017 to 2020 bridge on slide four of the earnings presentation. As Rex mentioned, we are retiring our long term EPS guidance and the first year of the three year performance period since providing that target in 2017.
Excluding the corporate tax law change more than 90% of the multiyear EPS growth came from operations higher R&D cost and interest expense were offset with the reduction in share count from opportunistic share repurchases and additional pension income.
Moving to 2020 results on slides five and six fourth quarter and full year revenues were up 11% and 12%, 12%, respectively, driven by outperformance across all three segments for the year.
Fourth quarter earnings per share was up 4% to <unk> 74, resulting in full year earnings topping our prior expectations at $3 <unk> per share up 16% when compared with 2019.
Fourth quarter and full year total company operating margins were down driven by limited COVID-19 impacts and the nuclear operations group and the fourth quarter and lower nuclear operations and nuclear power and margins for the full year due to the absence of positive onetime items that occurred in 2019 and did not repeat in 2012.
<unk> on.
The operating cash flow was $196 million in 2020 down about 83 million and from 2019, primarily driven by a single $89 million cash payment that we received on January 4th the first business day of 2021, which we historically had received before.
For the end of the fiscal year.
Capital expenditures totaled $255 million and 2020, a significant increase compared with the last several years as we continue to invest heavily and the core Navy business and expand into the new product line and medical radioisotopes.
Capital expenditures were about $15 million below our expectations due to timing and they are anticipated to be incurred in 2021.
Despite heavy investment for future organic growth the company generated strong cash flow to enable relatively low borrowings and maintain and flexible balance sheet at the end of 2020 of the company's leverage ratio was two times.
Moving to fourth quarter segment results on slide seven.
And the nuclear operations group generated robust revenue, which was up 15% to $426 million and higher long lead material enabled nuclear fuel production.
<unk> operating income was $81 3 million up from the prior year, primarily due to higher volume. This resulted in the 19, 1% operating margin for the segment and the fourth quarter slightly lower than last year due to some limited impacts from Covid.
Nuclear power group fourth quarter revenue was $107 million.
Up 10% compared with the fourth quarter last year, primarily from the Laker acquisition and higher field service activity and fuel production, partially offset by lower component volume segment revenue was down about five 5% on an organic basis and the fourth quarter.
The nuclear services group delivered solid operating income of $8 $4 million and the fourth quarter up slightly versus the prior year period as better contract performance and lower cost were offset by higher business development expenses.
Turning now to full year segment results on slide eight.
Nuclear operations group full year revenues were up 15% and operating income was up 9% full year margins were solid at 19, 8% and slightly lower than last year due to fewer favorable adjustments to backlog contracts and some limited COVID-19 impacts.
Nuclear power group revenues were up 5% and 2020 on an organic basis, excluding the impact from Laker energy acquisition revenues were down about 5% segment margins finished the year of 14, 6% as business impacts from Covid were offset by the Canadian government reimbursements.
We recorded and the third and fourth quarters the.
The NPG segment secured $24 million and Canadian government, COVID-19 relief to offset business impacts throughout the year not only has this program had a positive impact of the financials, but it will have a lasting benefit of as it has allowed us to invest and our workforce and maintain.
Hi, operational readiness, enabling a quicker recovery as we emerge from the pandemic on.
Ultimately this helps preserve bwxt's ability to have and enduring business and the Canadian nuclear power segment, and the nuclear medical space, and North America and globally and the future.
And lastly, the nuclear service group completed a robust year just bright despite pressures from New award delays operating income rose by 60% to $27 $4 million from improved overall performance.
Turning now to <unk> 'twenty 'twenty, one guidance on slide nine.
We anticipate consolidated revenue to grow and the low single digits and 2021 with non-GAAP earnings and a range of $305 to $3 20 per share with the accelerating EPS growth throughout the year, driven primarily from the recovery and NPG and the timing of New awards and MSG.
This leads us to expect the year similar to 292019 with of 45 55 earnings split between the first and second halves of the year.
Capex is still anticipated to be high at about $250 million only saliva. The below 2020 results due to timing of events.
And the items that moved into 2021.
Although navy Capex is still elevated above maintenance level of most of the heightened capital investment is expected to be related to medical isotopes of this year.
And the operating segments energy revenue is expected to be up slightly as we shift from higher material production and 2022 more labor production and 2021.
<unk> margins are expected to expand slightly versus 2020 to more normal levels, which we have always described as high teens operationally with upside from the Fas and Cas pension reimbursement benefit.
<unk> revenue is expected to grow about 6% and 2021, primarily from and an expected medical isotope recovery and increased product demand as well as anticipated higher field service activity and the power side of the business NPG margins are expected to be approximately 30.
14%, which does not include an assumption of any significant amount of government COVID-19 relief in 2021.
And SD operating income is expected to be from $25 million to $30 million and 2021 about flat at the midpoint with 2020 results as New award opportunities are not anticipated until late in the year.
The other guidance information can be found on the right hand side of slide nine we do anticipate the higher income from pension will be offset from increased expenses from other segment operations, including R&D and corporate unallocated costs and a higher effective tax rate, which is depicted on the guidance bridge on slide.
10.
As we turn the page into a new year, the company remains well positioned to capitalize on future near and long term growth opportunities as we mentioned on the last call. We look forward to providing new ambitious targets on financial metrics of enabling insight into the organizations ability to maintain healthy growth and.
Ability over the long term just as we have and the past one of my first actions in 2021 is to wrap up the multi year budgeting process and we expect to provide investors update and financial framework on the next call and with that I will ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session Task of question you May Press Star and then one using of Touchtone telephone and withdraw your question you May press star and two.
If you are using a speaker phone and we do ask that you. Please pickup your handset before pressing the numbers to ensure the best sound quality.
Once again that is star and then one to ask the question.
Our first question today comes from Carter.
Carter Copeland from Melleous Research. Please go ahead with your question.
Hey, good morning, gentlemen.
Good morning, good morning, Kevin.
A couple of quick ones, one the 30% growth and medical that you mentioned Rex how does that compare to what you saw how much was the down in 'twenty, just so we get a sense of calibrating that appropriately.
And then David on the cash.
Just a couple of pieces, one which segment did that timing.
Yes.
The timing shift from Q4 into Q1 that payment on the force what does that apply to and <unk>.
Just if you could give us some color you get a big big increase and contract assets year over year, just any any color on helping us think about what that is and how that liquidates over time. Thanks.
Yes, the Carter on the isotopes of business, we were down about 7% and 2020 and compared to 2019 and most of that Cratering occurred in the Q2 last year, we saw some some reasonable recovery and.
And the third and fourth quarters back to more normal levels and.
And off of that baseline in 2020, we expect about 30% of growth and 21, so a nice rebound and some real organic growth on and addition to the rebound on the elective procedures.
And as far as the cash Carter the.
And <unk>, obviously is our big collector of cash so.
It happened on the <unk> segment and as far as the.
Growth.
Contract assets I think.
As we grow the <unk> business there'll be contract assets as well as the NPG business.
And as we grow that and <unk>.
And with Bruce power, and Ontario power generation once again those assets will be building as we build but then there'll be paid off according to the contracts that we have.
Okay. Thanks for the color I'll, let somebody else ask.
Thanks Carter.
Our next question comes from Bob <unk> from CJS Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
Good morning, and look forward to the next call. When you gave the multiyear outlook I was kind of asked about that so maybe I'll change the question a little bit.
Without putting numbers to it until you finished your multiyear budget could you talk about the primary drivers for growth over the next three to five years and again I understand that Youll give us <unk>.
Number is around it and three months, but maybe just like the components that you see as the biggest drivers for growth over the next three to five years.
Sure I'll take that one Bob.
Yes, the number of of elements of growth here that that should drive the business forward over the next few years.
Certainly.
We've got we have planned growth and the isotopes business that we've talked we've talked a lot about.
We do think.
Even though we've had some delays in our thinking over the past couple of years because of various award timing of things.
We do expect of some really nice growth and our technical services business and the <unk> segment and that'll be based primarily on OE Awards for environmental management and for management and operations and the weapons complex and the research laboratories and that space there.
We feel quite well positioned for that obviously, we've been building kind of a new vertical if you will and micro reactors and so we have.
Significant opportunities and fuel reactor design and ultimately manufacturing for various defense and the national security and space applications, and maybe commercial <unk> commercial applications and the long run there and then I think.
<unk>.
This new Navy Shipbuilding plan is interesting and it certainly has some potential robust growth if the.
And if the president requested budget request of budget to that shipbuilding plan, and the Authorizers and appropriators lineup to it so.
We don't have we haven't built that kind of.
Growth into our strategic forecast at this point, but I think there is kind of interesting upside around that so those would be the four primary elements of growth.
Okay, Great and then just on the isotopes you mentioned no material new milestones now, but more expected in 2021 and the hurdles are and as we've talked about in the past the industrialization and regulation and just in terms of the facility modification completion on reactor equipment.
On an insertion and how long do you have to complete those steps just to maintain your current timeline of mid 2022 revenues.
Do you feel youre still on track.
Yes, Bob I think we're yes, our view fundamentally is unchanged, but we have been tracking to the same milestones over the past year or so we are making very tangible progress.
On the facility modifications in particular, we've kind of gone from dirt and concrete a year ago to <unk>.
Facilities that are really buttoning up so we can see the finish line from here.
And I'm very impressed with what the team is doing with the program and.
And.
And we're optimistic about it.
Okay Super and I'll get back in queue. Thank you.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Pete <unk> Kubicki from Alembic Global. Please go ahead with your question.
Hey, good morning, guys and congrats on hitting your your financial targets, there that you've had out there for a while.
Yeah, Hey, guys.
Continue to be confused about the Hanford contract I think that's the one you won and then it got protested I think it got reopened but.
And our best and final offers in on that contract or is that still an ongoing process and.
And just kind of update us on where we're at one of that contract.
What happened there was we were awarded the contract. It did go into the protest and then.
And then the.
The award was canceled.
And the reason.
What the what the Doe Doa decided to do there was actually changed the scope of that contract as we talked about and the script and so it was originally for management of the waste tanks at Hanford.
The decided to add some new scope the direct feed low activity waste.
Component, which was to be a separate contract and that will all now be combined into one single large contract. They did publish the day, we did publish a.
And noticed that the RFP for draft RFP for that would be out in Q1. This year. So there is certainly moving pretty quickly on that one so so what's the delayed opportunity for us we like our positioning on us, but it's also now of larger scope opportunity.
And the scope increases about 60% from what the original scope was to be.
So of delay, but a bigger opportunity so and the net I think that's okay for us.
Are you keeping sort of the same teammates and then what are you thinking maybe like a summer of late summer of kind of on award timeframe.
So no.
No comment on teammates because of we are in the sensitive stages on that but in terms of award timeline I would hope it would be certainly towards the end of this year, but that's not that's not fully known yet.
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Thank you Pete.
Okay.
And our next question comes from Robert.
Spingarn from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead with your question Hey, good morning.
Rob and David.
Good morning, David I think you referenced the non revenue mix changing as more revenues.
Come from labor production, rather the materials does this have an impact on margins.
No and once again.
And what we talk about and margins and that business is all of our contracts within that business are 15% fee.
So which is about a 13% margin so that does not change throughout the contract on average.
Okay, and then the Rex just moving to nuclear micro reactors whats your thinking on the Tam on that business and I am not sure what the best way to ask the question is but let's say that these reactors were to supplant maybe a quarter of the diesel generator power that the army currently uses.
And what might that translate to for BWXT.
Hey, Rob So we've been a little reluctant to try to scope out what the what the addressable market is there because it's still on the sort of emergent stages I would say the way we've tried to describe it and I think it's an appropriately cautious way to do it is that where we are and that market is that customers who are interested and.
And this kind of technology for power and propulsion applications are doing things like developing fuel technology, leading design contracts and.
And various development contracts and.
And there are kind of three phases of this right. There's technology development, which would then mature into demonstration programs and we're seeing that with department of defenses.
Draco.
Pele program NASA is looking at of flight demonstration program for nuclear thermal propulsion and the long run. So you go from technology development, which and these contracts are kind of in the tens of millions and we've when fuel contracts that are in that range and design contracts and that range. These demonstration programs will be in and dollar.
Scope kind of hundreds of millions for launches and demonstrations or.
Four of terrestrial demonstrations and then and then ultimately and I think this is kind of a few years off but ultimately these will be production programs, where you might be manufacturing.
Let's call it two or three of these a year and.
And those K and that case now you've got a revenue stream and let's call. It a few hundred million of year isn't as of may be a reasonable way to think about the scale of that opportunity.
But.
But we haven't published anything on what we think that total market looks like because it just needs to develop a little more before we get specific about it.
Okay. That's helpful. When you mentioned that a few years out on the production side 567 years that kind of the thing I think thats about right. Because these demonstration programs are just getting going and we would expect to see reactor demonstrations of terrestrial one.
Maybe in 2026 2027 timeframe somewhere in there.
Our space demonstration program, I think is longer and probably probably a bit beyond that so I would say towards the latter half of the decade.
Okay. Okay. Thank you very much thank you.
And our next question comes from Peter Arment from Baird. Please go ahead with your question.
And thanks, Good morning, Rex David Martin.
Hey.
Rex you mentioned the the law.
Long term on the new Navy Shipbuilding plan at least at the Navy you had put out there but.
And obviously you have to see the new administration weigh in but if that was to happen and you did start to see a third Virginia class and 25.
How does that impact your kind of euro.
And your trajectory the hitting the maintenance level kind of.
Capex I know you.
And you thought you'd be in that that range for 2023, maybe you can just to highlight that.
Net.
We haven't scoped, it out and detail yet Peter but.
I think you know from the Shipbuilding plan, just just was published their three additional Virginia and the 2000 Twenty's.
So the ones that you referenced and 25% and 26 and there is another one and 29 of course for us and long lead material that would start to impact us and 'twenty three and <unk>.
24 months lead time, so significant looking opportunity.
And what we've said historically is that we could probably accommodate a third a third virginia and in particular year.
And sort of sort of wedge that into our existing capacity, if we do get into normal tempo on on.
On three Virginia is.
Say those three and the 2000 Twenty's and there is another six months of 2000 and <unk>, we would have to do another build out and we haven't scoped that out specifically, yet, but it would impact future capital, starting and let's call. It 23.
Okay. That's helpful and just and then just sort of clarification back on the.
Isotopes.
The plan for I think was previously that at some point, maybe and the second half of 2021 you'd be submitting for approval of FDA and application for Moly 99, TC 99 is that still the plan or does that shift into 'twenty two.
Haven't.
We've been reluctant to publish and <unk>.
Milestones on that but we're still tracking to that thinking the.
Thing that we can control of this when we submit the package to the FDA and and our view on that is unchanged.
I appreciate it thanks Rex.
Thank you.
And our next question comes from Michael share Moly from.
The Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
Hey, good morning, Thanks for taking the question guys.
Maybe rex.
Rex or on the.
And just to stay on kind of Peters shipbuilding plans, I mean, we've sort of seen.
And of Aspirational Shipbuilding plan and this one obviously has a significant amount of unmanned platforms and.
We've heard Kathleen Hicks speak pretty aggressively again, some of the big maybe but.
Looking into consideration what you just said Rex about the Virginia class is potentially impacting future capital.
You have been and this big Capex phase how should we think about your longer term free cash flow and collection.
And you get some extra Virginia classes I don't think we know the scope yet.
Large aircraft carriers are sort of some set of to your curtailed we don't know if white carrier's gonna have reactors, but I mean.
Do you guys feel confident that we'll get the sort of capex holiday and start to see some some significant free cash flow inflection against various naval shipbuilding scenarios.
So hey, good morning, Mike.
Our strategic forecast is for that to Virginia layered with the Columbia on top of it and the forward program as we've been seeing it which is on sort of on five year.
Procurement cadence and so in that case is certainly our capex rolls off very significantly and next year, and then rolling down to maintenance Capex levels. So that's how we're forecasting the business right now.
And so I do expect significant free cash flow generation and options for that cash flow when the time comes.
We do hear we do hear some optimism from the chief of Naval Officer around the Navy budget.
And similar things from congressmen and women and Courtney and.
And so I don't know where this will go but it's certainly not on our baseline our baseline is to roll off on the Capex and start generating a lot of cash.
And are you hearing anything from the Navy customer about the light carriers and whether they will be the clear power.
We just havent had any discussions around that topic.
Okay, maybe just one more from me.
And the NPG margins, obviously you had.
The COVID-19 related headwinds some of the.
And you talked about the the medical being down I guess seven per <unk>.
And for the year, but even in the 13%.
However, the look back historically on those margins.
So the kind of day.
13 and 17.
And at 16 and in 2016, EBIT, even 14 and 18.
Yes.
And assuming the plan is still that medical will be highly accretive I mean do you see a pathway to margin expansion there maybe even backup to those prior levels and the NPD group.
Yes, I think so and the long run that isotopes of businesses is margin accretive not only to that segment, but to the to the pool of to the integrated business at the enterprise level. So I think there's potential for margin improvement there and alone.
Okay is it just what's holding back the margin I guess.
This year, even if those medicals are going to grow 30%.
And I think.
The.
The 13% is kind of historically what that segment is done you should see.
You are correct in thinking that the isotopes with their margin contribution should should should drive that some.
But bear in mind, Michael that as we go through this tech 99 generator product product line development. We do have some some expenses related to it that are outside of the capital spending that will put some negative pressure on margins and so the growth and the isotopes business a little bit offset by the expenses related to the tech 99 product line.
Got it perfect. Thanks, a lot guys ill jump back on queue.
Yes.
Our next question comes from Ron Epstein from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.
Hey, good morning, guys.
What are you thinking about on the M&A front.
As the the disruption of the pandemic offered up any opportunities.
Yeah.
So.
So run out and maybe I'll put it in the terms of normally do right. The bullseye for us is to be able to.
Kind of expand around our core businesses, which we have done certainly and Canada, certainly we'd like to do around the Navy business and so we keep our eyes open for targets like that.
Actually a pretty surprisingly interesting pipeline.
The other sort of the next layer for us would be near Adjacencies and I would put the.
Radiochemical processing and medical isotopes into that category and then the third we might move into some other areas that fit our competencies of all.
<unk> always said and we'll continue to say that we have a pretty fine filter because we are by and large nuclear technology and manufacturing business and so finding targets and that space not that easy to do funding.
Ending.
People, who were part of where those kind of assets not that easy to do so, but we do keep of <unk>.
And drum beat of the acquisitions in the pipeline and and.
Kind of like like some of the things that I see.
Gotcha Gotcha Gotcha, and then maybe just maybe a more specific question when we think about.
Cash flow and.
2021.
Outside of of.
The capex.
And what range you think on about what we're trying to model out free cash of 2021.
Yes.
We tend not to provide cash flow direction, we know that we have one large payment. We came at the beginning of the year, so that will be of positive impact on cash flow.
We forecasted the.
The capital to be $2 50, and.
And so those are the types of things, we've given guidance, there, but not clear guidance on the cash flow for the year.
Why not.
As we look at our long term guidance and the future I mean, if you look at our our cash flow the.
All the things that detract from it our capital.
So we tend to.
Give you the capital numbers.
And we have swings on that capital like last year that capital, which underspent by $15 million, but that $15 million going to be spent this year.
And so that makes our capital this year of little higher than we <unk>.
Higher than we thought last year, but the two years together, we're still at the same level.
Other than that dividends.
Give you the pieces, we just have not at this point and time chosen cash flow was the metric and once again, we'll look at.
At the next call to see what those metrics are that we want to develop for the next upcoming years.
Got it got it got it and then and then maybe just one last one here.
And when we've looked at the.
The ramping of the Columbia.
How should we think.
Think about the cadence of that will have on the NRG growth rates.
Well I mean, we started with the first Columbia and we've said the second Colombia is coming in.
And 2022, and then we've laid out at least pictorially, what that should look like.
It's not going to be exactly like that it's just the.
Our representation because it'll shift between years and how it's done but when we get the 2030 youre going to have seven 7% of our.
Colombia going through the shop, so you'll have a full one so between now and then it'll grow some way between now and then.
Got it alright, thank you.
Thanks, Brian.
Okay.
And ladies and gentlemen, our next question comes from Tate Sullivan from Maxim Group. Please go ahead with your question.
Hi, Thank you and good morning.
And it sounds like you have a lot of milestone announcements develop in the moly 99 of tech 99 product but.
And again updated comments on the timelines of commercialized and I think your previous language was from mid year 2000 and is that still in place.
Yes.
And like I said earlier on the call our view on the timeline really has not changed and we are highly focused on getting our FDA package submitted.
And then when we commercialize and.
And when we commercialize and 'twenty two is subject to regulatory approval, so theres a bit of uncertainty around that timeline, but but our view on that has not changed.
Great. Thank you for confirming and then related to the 30% medical growth.
And in 'twenty, one is that spreads and you highlighted specific isotope where is that spread across pretty evenly across your current portfolio of isotopes.
Pretty pretty even spread we have.
And some pretty large products and that portfolio like strontium and their sphere.
Those are the bulk of the business, but we have a handful of other isotopes that are starting to show some growth and.
And 'twenty, one and we like that whole portfolio, there and the organically, it's performing quite well.
Great. Thanks, and last one from me if for NPG margins.
Margin you cited lower component volume and for Q R. Can you remind me is that a higher margin business, usually and you usually do more component work towards the end of Refurbishments and Canada can you comment on that time.
So the refurbishment timeline, maybe take a general crack at that take the.
The refurbishment timeline is kind of ramps very early on long lead components like steam generators and <unk>.
And feeder tubes, and things like that and so we experienced a lot of growth on that curve early on and you're starting to see and 2017 and that business and we climbed up that ramp pretty rapidly that business.
Basically essentially tripled the along with an acquisition over that period of time and so.
We have sort of climb that curve and now the future opportunities are really around.
On the major component replacement, which is the field service activities related to installing steam generators and feeders and the various other components like that heat exchangers and so that's how we see the shape of the opportunity and Thats, what youre driving at.
Okay. Thank you, Sir and we'll have it.
Great rest of day. Thanks.
Operator, do we have and ladies and gents.
I was going to say do we have any anyone else who wants to jump back in the queue.
We do not sorry, I was kind of net.
Turn the floor back over to management for closing remarks.
And well thanks.
Thanks, everyone for joining the fourth quarter earnings call. If you need to contact me I can be reached at nine eight of 36 540 300. Thank you for joining again.
Ladies and gentlemen, with that we'll conclude today's conference call. We do thank you for attending you may now disconnect your lines.