Q4 2020 Patrick Industries Inc Earnings Call
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Patrick Industries, Inc. Fourth quarter 2020 earnings Conference call. My name is Jesse and I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. The question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference. Please.
Press Star Zero on your telephone keypad. Please note that this conference is being recorded.
And I will now turn the call over to MS. Julie Ann Kotowski from Investor Relations. Mrs. Kotowski, you may begin.
Good morning, everyone and welcome to Patrick Industries fourth quarter 2020 conference call I'm joined on the call today by Anthony net President and CEO of J Petrovich CFO.
Certain statements made on today's conference call regarding Patrick industries, and its operations may be considered forward looking statements under the securities laws.
There are a number of factors many of which are beyond the company's control, which could cause the actual results and events to differ materially from those described in the forward looking statements.
These factors are identified in our press releases, our form 10-K for the year ended 2019 and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
We undertake no obligation to update these statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur. After the date. The forward looking statements are based on.
I'd now like to turn the call over to Andy Nemeth.
Thank you Julien good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us on the call today before we start I would like to take the opportunity to welcome and recognize Jake Petrovich, Our Chief Financial Officer, joining our quarterly earnings call for the first time.
We are extremely excited to have Jack on the Patrick team and look forward to his leadership creative thought process and positive impact on our culture on our business in the years to come.
Jack brings a wealth of experience as to us in the areas of financial management investment banking and M&A from across many industries. Additionally.
Additionally, I'd like to thank John Forbes for his tremendous enthusiasm engagement energy and passion as he assumed the role of interim CFO.
John's commitment to Patrick is just incredible evidenced every day and as interactions with our people and his contributions to our organization reflect his dedication to our team and his tremendous leadership and spirit.
On the COVID-19 front, our team has adapted incredibly well to the changing operating environment and safety protocols implemented with the resilience and the energy and we continue to prioritize the health safety and wellbeing of our team members. This team has worked and continues to work tirelessly to enable us to respond to ongoing strong demand for our products and services.
With demanding production schedules.
Our core values, which are central to our business model have been the foundation for our humble culture and made it possible for us to align together to care for one another during this incredibly dynamic time.
Continued strong retail demand tailwind and interest in RV and boating activity reinforces our positive view of the momentum and strength of our leisure lifestyle markets, which represent 72% of our fourth quarter revenues.
Oems continue to work to replenish the the depleted inventory channel to meet strong demand and address their growing backlogs.
Demand for housing has also remained strong further bolstering the performance of our MH and industrial segments, representing 28% of our fourth quarter revenues housing inventories on both fronts remain very tight.
Additionally, home improvement activity has been very active amid shifting demand to suburban and rural communities from the urban migration that these markets were experiencing just over a year ago.
Backlogs for both MH Oems and single family Homebuilders continue to indicate demand is outstripping supply in these markets.
ESG and related initiatives continue to be a priority for us as well our teams are continuing to drive focus on emphasizing sustainability and the way we utilize resources through innovative programs to reduce reuse of materials and reclaiming production byproducts, where they have of valuable use in other industries.
We've also continued to make investments in human capital management initiatives, which are of products of our core values to provide a safe inclusive of intolerant of environment in which everyone is empowered to pursue their professional and personal development goals.
With that backdrop and momentum accelerating off of and through Q3, our fourth quarter operating performance was again solid based on double digit revenue growth in all of our end markets in the fourth quarter.
As a result of fundamental execution and the strong operating and financial platform, we flexed, our business model and capacity to match up with OEM and build of production levels and leveraged our fixed cost structure to drive improved gross profit operating income net income and diluted earnings per share during the quarter our.
Our fourth quarter revenues of $773 million increased 41% or $223 million compared to the prior year, reflecting our team's efforts to strive to ensure reliable and uninterrupted source of quality products and service to our customers.
We earned $1 64 per diluted share of 91% increase over the prior year fourth quarter.
Full year 2020 can generally be categorized in three separate chapters the.
The first chapter began with increasing momentum through the first quarter as planned and expected after inventory recalibration of impacted our leisure lifestyle markets for the previous 18 months RV had reached and we believe exceeded wholesale retail inventory equilibrium, while marine it primarily of rebalanced with full correction estimated by mid year.
Low interest rates further bolster demand in all of our core markets and our MH and industrial markets were poised to benefit from high demand with low inventories.
The second chapter of the year was the navigation through the unprecedented in virtually overnight emergence at the end of the first quarter of the COVID-19, pandemic, where our primary concern pivoted to ensuring the health and safety of the Patrick team and our communities.
We paused the operations early in the second quarter in a number of our RV and marine businesses for five straight weeks implementing new safety protocols in alignment with CDC guidelines designed to protect our team members. Both for operations that did not shut down due to being declared essential and those that did.
During the industry wide wholesale production shutdown in RV and partial geographic shutdown in Marine Oems continued to ship finished units the dealers, which continued to retail very well depleting channel inventories to recent historical lows.
During that same period, we had operations across the country that did not shut down and continue to service our customer base in a very dynamic environment.
The final five to six weeks of the second quarter saw a sharp recovery in OEM production and the snapback in demand within our leisure lifestyle and housing and industrial markets as consumers also pivoted towards leisure lifestyle housing and repair and remodel.
Our team adjusted to the demands and the usual dedicated and committed fashion and did whatever was needed to take care of our OEM customers and builders.
The protocols, we established in the second quarter. In addition to our strategic efforts to appropriately deploy capital. Despite the shutdowns allowed our team to meet the needs of our customer base, while accelerating production.
The third chapter reflected and highlighted our ability to be flexible and nimble and again quickly pivot from a defensive position two of strategic position.
We focused on investment in our team and infrastructure and pulling capex forward to ensure we have the capacity to support expected continuing strong demand.
We also reignited our acquisition strategy, where we are able to use our strong financial position liquidity and cash flows to add valuable and accretive companies through our platforms with the acquisitions of inland plywood synergy transport front range stone gear Murray and Taco metals.
For the full year, we reported net sales of approximately $2 5 billion, an increase of more than 6% over the prior year. Despite an unprecedented wholesale production shutdown of more than five weeks and our RV in certain geographic regions of art marine sectors on the bottom line. We reported net income of approximately $97 million of $4 20 per dilute.
<unk> share an increase of 8% and 9% respectively over 2019.
Now turning to a deeper dive on our end markets RV and marine dealer inventories, both new and used ended the year at recent historical lows as measured by weeks on hand.
RV and marine retail sales continued to be driven by already strong demographic trends new buyers looking for ways to social distance and spend quality time with family and friends and a reenergized the interest in outdoor recreation activities housing.
Housing demand continued to be driven by low interest rates and a shift in migration trends as a result of COVID-19 from urban areas to suburban and rural housing supporting demand in our industrial markets and continuing to increase the attractiveness of affordable housing.
Our RV revenues were up $153 million or 52% in the fourth quarter and represented 58% of our consolidated sales.
RV wholesale unit shipments were up 35% totaling more than 130000 units for the quarter we.
We estimate retail unit shipments also increased 35% in that same period or resulted in over 100000 units sold.
Dealer inventories continue to decline to recent historical lows and immediate retail sell through at the dealer level due to increasing backlogs continue to delay inventory replenishment cycle.
RV wholesale unit shipments were up 6% for the full year and based on our estimates. We believe between 80080 5000 units were pulled out of dealer inventory channel in the past 12 months and over 100000 units were pulled out of the the dealer inventory channel in the last 18 months on increased retail sales of 12% and 6% respectively.
Our estimates indicate the dealer inventory weeks on hand is down more than 60% for 2014 on retail shipments that are up approximately 55% over the same period.
The RV market continues to additionally benefit from upgrades by existing users along with recent work and study from anywhere trends the.
The continued strong traffic at the dealers widespread awareness of the RV lifestyle, OEM and dealer commitments to offering of strong value proposition and investments in new campgrounds and amenities will all provide greater opportunities in capacity for Americans to experience camping outdoors.
On the marine side of our business momentum continues based on similar trends that parallel RV wholesale retail and dealer demand and inventory levels.
Our marine revenues of $108 million, representing 14% of our sales were up $35 million or 48% for the quarter on estimated marine wholesale unit shipments debt increased approximately 7% in the same period.
Marine retail shipments are estimated to have increased approximately 35% in the quarter and 15% for the full year to over 226000 units the largest retail shipment year since 2007.
The marine industry continues to see a strong increase of new buyers driven by similar secular trends in outdoor recreation.
The heavy boat usage patterns, and resulting demand for marine products, including aftermarket products, where our presence continues to grow have created historically low channel inventories.
Our estimates here indicate the dealer inventory weeks on hand are down approximately 70% since 2014 on retail unit shipments that are up approximately 30% over the same period.
We expect a very positive demand trajectory from marine wholesale unit shipments and healthy supply and demand dynamics through 2021.
In summary, the leisure lifestyle markets continue to benefit from the network effect is a broader demographic of consumers are embracing the domestic recreation space.
We believe this longer term customer base will support expansion of our addressable markets and continue to enhance our growth potential.
The RV and marine markets satisfy the need for continued social distancing and quality time with family and friends.
Historically, low RV and marine inventories and the expansion of the customer base lead us to believe that the leisure lifestyle markets are poised for continued strength throughout 2021 and likely into 2022.
Now turning to the industrial side of our business. Once again, we saw tailwind due to strong new single family housing starts and the continued surge of home improvement projects and related do it yourself activities.
The housing market remains very tight and affordability of manufactured housing remains appealing to a sizeable segment of the population.
Strong demographic trends and increasing OEM backlogs indicate robust future demand and growth potential.
Our manufactured housing sales of $122 million represented 16% of our total revenues from the fourth quarter, increasing 9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 on an increase in MH wholesale unit shipments of 2%.
MH Oems of experience post COVID-19 production capacity hurdles and Oems are currently working through healthy production backlogs, which indicate a tailwind likely through 2021.
Revenues on our industrial business of $96 million, which represented 12% of our overall sales mix in the fourth quarter increased 35% compared to the prior year.
Our supply to new residential construction, the remodeling market and big box home improvement was driven by continued growth in single family housing starts and robust home improvement demand.
Additional demand drivers include low interest rates demand for suburban homes in tight supply.
New housing starts increased 12% in the fourth quarter.
Single family housing starts increased 30% in the fourth quarter, while multifamily housing starts decreased 23%, primarily due to the lingering economic and health related impact of COVID-19.
In summary of strong demographic trends and secular tailwind in all four of our primary markets have positioned our business for continued growth trajectory through 2021, we.
We are investing in our infrastructure to support the Oems on builders as they fulfill backlogs driven by continued expansion of our addressable markets and expect to continue to leverage our fixed cost structure in alignment to continue to drive results.
I'll now turn the call over to Jack who will provide additional comments on our financial performance.
Thanks, Andy and good morning, everybody.
Our consolidated net sales for the fourth quarter increased 41% to $773 million driven by increases in all four of our primary end markets, our leisure lifestyle and markets continue to benefit from the popularity of RV and marine in the COVID-19 environment, while our industrial and MH markets benefited from a strong housing of remodeling environment and the resolution of <unk>.
COVID-19 production hurdles.
Revenue from our leisure lifestyle markets, which are comprised of RV and marine increased 51% with RV and marine revenues of 52% and 48% respectively.
RV content per unit increased 2% to $3235 per unit and estimated marine content per unit increased approximately 24% $2098 per unit.
Revenues from our housing and industrial markets increased 19% in the quarter with MH revenues up 9% versus the prior year industrial revenues up 35% compared to the prior year.
MH content per unit decreased 1% to $4580 per unit, reflecting the impact of our exit of certain low margin product lines.
Gross margin in the fourth quarter was 18, 4%, increasing 30 basis points compared to the prior year.
The gross margin improvement was primarily driven by benefits of leveraging our fixed costs against a strong increase in revenue was partially offset by tight labor conditions and related wage increases necessary to maintain quality and consistent delivery of our products to end markets.
Operating expenses were 10, 4% of sales compared to 11, 5% in 2019 due to our leveraging fixed operating expenses of sales increased.
Warehouse and delivery expenses decreased 70 basis points due to a lower mix of MH sales in the quarter.
SG&A expenses were five three percentage of sales in the quarter, a 20 basis point decrease compared to the prior year again, primarily reflecting the benefit of leveraging our fixed cost against increased sales.
Operating income of $62 million increased 73% in the fourth quarter and operating margin of 8% increased by 150 basis points, primarily due to factors previously described.
Our diluted earnings per share on the fourth quarter was $1 64 up from 86% from the prior year.
Our overall effective tax rate increased to approximately 26% for the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to approximately 22% from the prior year, mostly due to a decrease in share based compensation deductions.
For the full year 2020, our overall effective tax rate was 25, 6% up from 24% in 2019.
Looking at cash flows we generated approximately $160 million of operating cash flows for the full year of 2020, a decrease of 17% compared to the prior year. The decrease was attributable to our strategic investment of working capital to support the anticipated OEM production ramp up in January 2021, as well as the timing of cash collection from customers at the year end.
Our investment in increased inventories in anticipation of a strong start to fiscal 2021 was $59 million and we collected approximately $21 million of receivables within two days after year end collections, we typically collect before the year end.
Strategically, we further invested $306 million seven strategic acquisitions in 2020.
In addition in alignment with our disciplined capital allocation strategy and dividend policy, we invested $32 million on capital expenditures for the full year 2020 to support capacity expansion and automation to support growing end market demand.
We returned nearly $24 million to shareholders in the form of quarterly dividends over 23 million in the form of share repurchases.
We had approximately $350 million total liquidity at the end of December including $45 million of cash on hand, and full access to the remaining unused capacity of our revolving credit facility of $270 million.
With no major debt maturities until 2023, our operating cash flow position us to capitalize on strategic growth opportunities return capital to our shareholders and maintain our disciplined capital allocation strategy with attention to our long term leverage profile are.
Our leverage position at the end of the year was two four times net debt to EBITDA.
Strong trends in our markets are sound and flexible capital structure, our disciplined leverage position and cash flows of positioned us extremely well for growth in our markets. We expect the continuation of recent end market growth trends and preferences in 2021.
For 2021, RBI currently estimates of approximately 17% increase in wholesale unit shipments to 503000 units with the upside range of 515000 units.
We currently anticipate marine wholesale to be up 20% to 30% over 2020, COVID-19 impacted shipment rates on retail that is estimated to be flat to up low single digits.
Based on these estimates and continued strong retail demand, we believe channel inventories of both RV and marine markets will remain well below recent historic levels and will not be calibrated to the new normal until late 2021 or 2022.
And the manufactured housing and industrial markets. We currently expect MH wholesale unit shipments to increase in the low mid single digits in 2021, and new housing starts to continue their strong trajectory of high single digit to low double digit growth in 2021.
Our financial plan remains consistent with the growth expectations and opportunities Andy previously discussed.
We have continued to invest in our capabilities to ensure that we can meet increasing OEM demand in the markets grow at a rapid pace geographic diversification of scalability will enable us to support and capture the growth of our addressable end markets, our strong cash flow and liquidity support investments on our end market platforms, we estimate 40% to $45 million of Capex for 2021, which refer.
Flex increased investment in automation projects to offset the expected continued tight labor market, which will enable us to continue to support growth of all of our end markets.
That completes my remarks.
Andy.
Thanks, Jake overall, we are proud of our team's performance for fiscal 2020, and we are very excited about the prospects for fiscal 2021 on beyond our culture of core values and the dedication passion and commitment of our more than 8700 team members, who have worked tirelessly to strive to exceed our customers' expectations as both energizing and motivating.
We drive the execution of our strategic plan and capital allocation strategy.
We continue to invest in human capital management initiatives to develop retain and ensure the wellbeing of growth of our team members, who are critical to bringing our products to market.
Our financial flexibility resources liquidity and balance sheet strength enable us to opportunistically pursue strategic acquisitions to expand the portfolio of brands, we offer to our customers and invest in strategic Capex and automation to further drive capacity efficiency synergies and continuous improvement initiatives.
In addition, our highly variable cost structure provides us with the flexibility to stay nimble and ahead of changes in today's dynamic macro environment.
As we look ahead to 2021, we believe favorable demographics macroeconomic and secular tailwind will lead to continued strong demand on our end markets, which provide tremendous quality of life benefits in both the Covid and post COVID-19 environment.
And finally, the ongoing support we receive from our customers suppliers board of directors and shareholders will help us increase long term shareholder value by serving our customers at the highest level investing in and protecting our talented and dedicated team members dealing ethically and responsibly with our business partners and supporting our local communities.
This is the end of our prepared remarks, we are now ready to take questions.
Thank you we will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone keypad. The confirmation tone will indicate that your line is from the question queue. You May Press Star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue Sir of participants using speaker equipment and may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the.
The Starkey.
Our first question is coming from the line of Scott <unk> with C. L. King. Please proceed with your question.
Good morning, guys and congrats on a fantastic win from some of the year.
Morning.
Morning.
We are hearing.
Some of the Oems in January of starting to increase the production on somewhat.
<unk> the part of it has to do with the Covid rates in the Northern Indiana region, starting to advance can you talk about what youre seeing on that front.
And also I don't know if you gave what your expectations for retail and wholesale are within the RV space of this year.
Sure Scott This is Andy as it relates to the production rates, increasing I think that the industry has done a fantastic job in partnership really with each other to make sure that we're doing the best we can to provide a very very safe operating environment for our team members really across the spectrum and so.
Thank you know we've seen production rates increase I think a lot of a lot of the companies have gotten there their labor better positioned through the fourth quarter as we move into Q1 and have been able to increase their their their productivity into January and into Q1. So I think it's a little bit it's a combination of both probably of the <unk>.
<unk> piece, but more so I think debt.
Everybody's kind of flexing in typical fashion the industry does a great job of adjusting to market conditions and I think that's just really reflective of that so we anticipate of January to be strong and I think we are.
We're definitely encouraged and excited about what we're seeing.
As Scott for the for the.
2021 outlook just to reiterate that we are aligned with RBI on of 17% to 20% increase for wholesale which is the 503500 15000 units. We think retail is probably flat to low single digits up.
We still if you think about that on the Delta is still presents a little bit of this.
Equilibrium in the boundaries.
Keeps the.
The supply channel from being fully filled up and presents a pretty nice 'twenty 'twenty, one for us as well.
Got it.
Regarding the.
The capacity.
And production you guys did a great job of putting a lot of automation in place ahead of time to help you right now are you.
And the position that need to do more of that or potentially add.
The capacity or are you good whenever the industry turns out new for 2021.
We're continuing to adjust our model and we're going to continue to invest in automation as we move forward I think as you know.
As global demand picks up we view labor continuing to be something thats going to be of challenge, but everybody is really doing a great job of working through that and we've seen our automation initiatives.
Take place and take hold and be able to allow us that increased capacity. So as we move through Q1 and Q2 as some of the automation initiatives that we've pulled forward last year I think start to come online. We're excited about the ability to be able to flag some but I think we're going to continue to look at that as we look at the growth trends the opportunity.
Of the capacities that are coming online and that will be coming online we're going to make sure that we're in a position to flex up with our customers.
Got it and then last question before I jump back into the queue on margins could you talk about how labor raw materials input costs, how we should look at that going forward and are you I know in the past you've talked about 30 to 50 basis points of operating margin expansion are we talking about at least the.
That being a floor for 2021.
Sure. This is Andy again on a couple of fronts as it relates to the materials materials were fairly stable during the course of 2020.
In fact, we gave price decreases during the year in 2020, and so as we're looking at kind of demand right. Now we would tell you of that materials are.
We're seeing some some potential price increases coming but we're going to certainly work with our customers to mitigate those as much as possible.
In balance and in partnership with them and so materials of probably we're expecting to go up a little bit as we move through at least the first half of the year at this point in time.
Labor in the back quarter of the back two quarters of 2020 was definitely a headwind that we believe that labor cost us probably 40 bps.
On the gross margin side in Q4, but we see that abating as we move through Q1 and Q2.
As we get our arms around our automation initiatives and so I think as we look at kind of overall for 2021 with our model and the expectations that we see today or the estimates based on our industry knowledge in our market market estimates, we think that yes. The $30 50 as of floor. We think we should be at 50 bps or more on operating income for 2021.
Got it thanks again guys.
Thanks Scott.
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Daniel Moore with CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question.
J J Andy good morning, Thanks for taking the questions.
Could you give us a sense for just including the acquisitions. What overall revenue growth was looked like for the month of January.
Theyre not Q1 should probably.
Would look a little higher given the easy marks count.
Okay.
Yeah, well, maybe we would take a little bit of a backwards look before we think about forward, we think about <unk>.
Of the $223 million of growth we saw at the top line about 21% of that is industry, 9% of about $47 million of that is the acquisitions that we've announced of the year.
We had a couple of here hit in Q4, as well and the balance of that becoming organic.
As we think about January going forward, its certainly come out strong and as you've probably on definitely heard from some other folks and we expect to continue to see that strengthen here as we transition through Q1, but.
All things being equal to your point, we have a pretty good comp against the nexgen, we expect to be up.
Meaningfully against it.
Got it helpful.
And.
Yes.
Just shifting to the marine space a little bit.
You touched on you've got similar trends to rvs.
Can you kind of rehash, where you see inventories entering the year on similar levels to rvs in D. C. Oems kind of running all out and investing more to increase capacity in the marine space as they are in rvs.
Sure Dan This is Andy Yes, we expect to see marine manufacturer is running the OEM is running all out I think we will see investment in capacity and it's very very similar picture to what we see in RV as it relates to inventory and what's going on and what is going to be needed to restock the channel and we again believe.
Through 2021 and into 2022, a lot of the marine Oems at this point in time, we're sold out through the 21 units in 'twenty one model year. So at this point again, we expect again, a very strong restocking for 'twenty one.
And then as well like I said end of 2022.
Got it and then just in terms of cash generation.
How should we think about inventories normalizing.
Over the course of the year do you think it will stay at.
More elevated levels here for the next few quarters or start to work those down.
Well we.
Great point and I appreciate the question.
As we mentioned in the prepared remarks, we saw on the numbers, we built a little bit of inventory coming into the end of <unk> as we saw real acceleration of production and part of that was just as a natural lift of the business, we're going to build some working capital, but also there was a lot of proactive thought as to making sure. We're in a good posture as we transition through December into of what we expected to come out and has.
Proven to be of strong January could be in a position, where we could ensure that we are serving our customers and providing them what they need so a little bit of a little bit of an increase there I would say about two.
$20 million to $25 million of.
On a deliberate build in inventory against what we might normally have seen which of course pressure a little bit of what we show for our operating cash flow for <unk> versus maybe what we talked about earlier in the year, but it is starting to normalize as you said, we've one of.
The way I would think about it is.
As we came into the end of the year, we're running at a pretty strong run rate as an industry and using the RV industry as a proxy we estimate somewhere near that 500000 units per year kind of run rate as we build of balance sheet to support that so I think what you should probably expect as we transition through 2021 and assuming that we.
RV for example comes into the band that I had mentioned.
Scott and I think you'd see our inventory would definitely normalize and probably going to a regular cadence of our working capital.
Very helpful last from me is.
As we think about sort of the higher end of the RV IAA range 520 ish.
The shipments for this year.
Just as far as capacity is concerned great to hear your comments around labor are there any supply chain.
Components or other things that you've got your eye on the could be an inhibitor to.
Just getting to that type of production level.
Youre not that far off from December already so just wondering about your confidence about the industry's ability to produce that many units assuming demand holds up.
Sure Dan This is Andy we're confident that the industry will be able to produce that level based on capacity is in the run rates that we're seeing today and I think there is upside potential even on the RBI RBI a numbers.
There's a few little hotspots out there you know as there have been over the last couple of quarters everybody's got something here or there, but I would tell you that again the resilience.
And the adaptability of the supply base in the channel is incredibly strong and very very nimble and so I think that we're going to continue to see the supply base adapt to the opportunities to enhance capacities for the manufacturers. So we feel confident about the RBI a numbers.
That's great excellent appreciate the color congrats on.
I'll circle back with any follow ups. Thank you. Thank.
Thank you.
Thanks, Dan.
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Craig Kennison with Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. It's been a good call here answering a lot of questions, but maybe I wanted to jump into your content per unit outlook. I know we have this trend at least in the RV market were first time buyers are driving asps.
Lower but your content per unit is still growing at what point do you think we might see Asps you start to rise as maybe some of those first time buyers.
Come back and buy a higher end unit in.
And how does that roll into your content per unit outlook for your various end markets.
Sure Craig This is Andy I think from of content perspective, we feel really good about where we're at today, where we're positioned the investments that we've made.
<unk> automation to be able to enhance capacity and grab market share and so I think we feel good about the ability to continue to grow content, both organically and strategically.
I think as it relates to <unk>.
Asps.
And new buyers. We're excited about the the fact that there is a lot of new buyers entering the space today and still very excited about it and so our view would be is that I certainly don't want to speak for any of the Oems or the dealers, but in our perception would be is that asps are going to stay pretty stable, maybe go up a little bit towards the back half of the year.
The next year.
If we do start to see kind of this upgrade cycle, which we saw a little bit of it last year that could drive asps up as well, but overall again I think we're very confident and excited about our opportunities as it relates to grow our content on all market sectors.
Thanks, and then getting back to the kind of inflation question could you.
Summarize where some of your largest.
Commodity exposure lies and then how quickly are you able to pass along increases or decreases I know you in particular partner.
Very closely with your OEM partners to make sure that.
It's fair on both sides, but I'm wondering to what extent, there's a lag there.
We pass along price is fairly quickly.
But I would tell you that we do expect to see a little bit of uplift in materials here and we're going to work with our customers with that we want to mitigate it as much as possible within 30 days or so.
We'll move up or down depending on where the markets go on we really try and partner with the customers to mitigate the impact of price increases and so I would tell you that we're going to continue to work with that and we're going to continue to partner.
And the other thing that we see as well out there is that the manufacturers do a great job of.
Of when they when they have forward looking information as it relates to commodity movements. They do a great job of of pushing product in and out to be able to mitigate the impact of call. It content or the content. If you will certain product lines for other product lines that are going up to be able to flex and maintain balance as it relates to their pricing structure. So we're going on.
Continue to partner with the Oems on that and that in that fashion.
And lastly, if I missed the Jake I'm, sorry, but what is your capex outlook for 2021.
We are of $40 million to $45 million.
Great. Thank you.
Thanks, Greg.
Thank you as a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question at this time. Please press star one on your telephone keypad.
Our next question comes from Steve O'hara with Sidoti. Please proceed with your question.
Hi, good morning, Thanks for taking the question.
Good morning.
Just on the <unk>.
Look at your growth within our the versus maybe the wholesale numbers that are out there.
The big jumps vs.
The industry and is that just on the acquisitions.
Should we still be thinking kind of obviously organically maybe industry pulse.
Three to five.
On a percentage points is that still the right way to think about it or is there something else that's happening.
At least maybe in the near term with the acquisitions thats kind of boost that temporarily.
Sure. Steve This is Andy I think as it relates to the content and our ability to grow organically. The three to five is definitely a good estimate I think the capacity initiatives and automation that we're putting in place like I said pulling forward capex.
The back half of last year for 'twenty. One of 22 are going to provide our opportunities to continue to grow organically and our team is definitely focused on that and so honestly, there's not a lot of acquisition activity.
In those numbers today, so we've been able to drive that organic growth in partnership with our customers and really through the dedication of our team, but also of the commitment to driving automation across our business units.
Okay.
And maybe sticking with the.
Uh huh.
Maybe just directionally in terms of.
The <unk> versus <unk>.
I mean, I think it's typically been.
Kind of a year over year of growth and obviously some of Thats, probably driven acquisition.
But I mean thats similar debt should be.
Maybe what's the outlook for the first quarter on the RV side in terms of production and things like that is there.
Is it kind of similar does it look similar to the fourth quarter or is it going of be.
You think it's significantly higher.
I think that the RV manufacturers like I said earlier of increased production capacity and people are getting their arms around the labor situation and so we expect RV production to increase in Q1.
At this point in time, and we're definitely seeing that through January and into February so our.
Our estimates would be the again, there's definitely strong demand out there and strong production levels.
In Q1 already.
Okay, and then maybe just lastly on the <unk>.
Not to beat a dead horse, but on the RV IAA.
You know kind of retail outlook.
It seems like.
Even if you are kind of flat.
If you're flat to down I guess on the retail side.
You could still be pulling out.
Inventory I mean that seems.
And I mean, it seems like the dealers are I think when it was 46% expected to be up nicely. This year.
The half we're gonna be ex.
The flat, but it <unk> seem like Theres pretty good confidence that 2021 would be a pretty good year for them.
I mean.
What's your thought on if we're kind of flat to up.
You expect the industry to pull out units again or is it going to gear up to meet that demand level.
Well, we retailed in 2020 over 500000 units.
So you know on wholesale production that was right around 430000 units for 2020, and so we're depth of the inventories are definitely low and light right now for 2021, and so we continue to see let's just say retails up.
The flat to up at the minimum of 500 call. It $5 15 ish to 530000 units on retail.
We would expect that there it's still going to be in this.
Depleted inventory position for the for the balance of 'twenty, one and positions 2022 very well so.
Again, I think that as we look at it all out numbers, we feel like this the.
On the restock is going to take it's going to take some time.
Okay, alright, thanks, a lot appreciate it.
Thank you we have no further questions at this time I will now turn the call back over to MS. Julie Ann Kotowski for further remarks.
Thanks, Jesse we appreciate everyone for being on the call today and look forward to talking to you again at our first quarter 2021 conference call.
Play of today's call will be archived on Patrick website, Www Dot Patrick Dot com under Investor Relations.
And now I'll turn the call back over to our operator.
Okay.
Thank you ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.
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