Q3 2021 North West Company Inc Earnings Call
This conference is being recorded so it calls the homes that don't go as you see.
All participants please standby your meeting is ready to begin.
Please be advised that this conference call is being recorded and welcome to the North West Company, Inc. Third quarter results Conference call I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Dan Mcconnell, President and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Mckenna. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much and good afternoon, everybody and welcome to the North West Company third quarter Conference call I'm joined here today by John King, Our Chief Financial Officer, and Amanda Sutton, our VP legal and corporate Secretary.
I'll start the meeting off by asking managed to read our disclosure statement. Thank you Dan.
Before we begin today I remind you that certain information presented today may constitute forward looking statements such statements reflect northwest current expectations estimates projections and assumptions. These forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, which could cause actual performance and financial results in the future to vary materially.
From those contemplated in the forward looking statements.
For additional information on me Brett Please see northwest annual information form and <unk>.
Under the heading risk factors.
Yeah.
Alright, Thank you Amanda.
I'm pleased to share with you the details with Northcoast.
Thank you Sir.
Let me start by giving you just an overview of the results before I dive into specifics by region.
First of all.
The positive sales momentum across the business.
Third quarter consolidated <unk>.
<unk> increased 1% to $554 million.
Excluding the impact of all foreign exchange rate between the U S sales increased two 1%.
Last year.
Really positive considering the exceptional COVID-19 related sales last year.
On a same store basis sales remained strong with a decrease of only 1%.
A 17, 8% increase in the third quarter last year.
Keep in mind that on a two year basis same store sales for 2017.
When compared to the third quarter of 2019.
This performance definitely speaks to the efforts that we've been putting forward in servicing our customers.
And we've captured market share and wallet share or this past two year period.
This quarter it is especially important to consider the consumer income support funds are lower than last year.
Larry in Northern Canada, and the mobility restrictions are less stringent today than they were a year ago.
Over the past couple of months and taking advantage of the reduced travel restrictions as well as <unk>.
What are the other team members and leaders have done a lot of travel throughout our markets.
The Great news is the leadership sees a lot of opportunity.
For things that we can do better.
As a result of new leadership team leadership team sorry is very very encouraged and enthusiastic to do just that.
That being said I mean, frankly I want to underline here is we're very pleased and optimistic after seeing firsthand.
We have been passion and energy of our associates across right across the network.
We continue to be focused on our customer experience shooting in finding solutions in the middle of a pandemic, while keeping health and safety at the top of their mind.
This all at the same time is keeping a good in stock position, while navigating the current global supply chain crisis.
Our teams understand that the current supply chain environment has the potential of putting our ability to have the right merchandise for our customers at risk.
Why all of our banners have been focusing on moving inventory swiftly across our network.
Our team has a plan for months to avoid to adjust and avoid potential supply chain congestion by procuring inventory earlier to account for the extended lead times.
Hey, good stock position to capture the holiday sales.
This does concludes actually normalizing inventory levels compared to last year, while keeping up with demand and avoiding lost sales.
And of course, we continue to leverage our relationships with our suppliers and make sure that they are prioritizing our orders. This in order to keep us delivering on our promise to our communities protecting their food security and ultimately helping them live better.
Alright, now let me go and give you a little bit more color around the specific sales performance.
Canadian operations sales increased 6% to $315 million.
Same store sales remain strong only decreasing three 2% compared to 22, 9% increase last year.
On a two year basis same store sales were up 18, 4% compared to the to the third quarter of 2019.
These results were achieved even as income support programs dwindled and travel restrictions loosen compared to last year.
In stock position is contributing to keeping food sales strong even a specific road stores are rural markets, where customers are proving to our shopping.
As I previously mentioned, we took steps to be in this position by leveraging our supplier relationships and benefiting from it oney and airlines, which helped us mitigate some of the supply chain disruptions.
'twenty holds true sales were relatively flat to last year, and just one 5% down on a same store basis categories, such as grocery food and beverages continued to lead that performance.
The impact of lower income support in the market as compared to last year had a much larger impact on general merchandise sales decreased nine 8% of total and 10, 4% on a same store basis.
However, going back on that two year basis General merchandise same store sales were up 31% compared to 2019.
This definitely showing the positive sales trend driven by the business.
And this was led by categories, such as motorized imminent entertainment and media.
Twice as well as some other hard lines.
With respect to sales in our international operations. The momentum continues to be strong as income support payments across the U S territory continues to feel that demand.
We are also seeing the positive impact of increased travel and some of the tourism dependent markets, albeit still well below the COVID-19, pre COVID-19 levels.
Overall international sales increased four 7% over last year.
Same store basis sales remained very strong increasing four 4% to last year, and increasing 15, 9% on a two year basis.
Our signature categories program continues to perform well and our cost U less banner, particularly on our fresh card categories like produce and meat.
Sales is also delivering very strong results in categories, such as grocery food and beverages as lower COVID-19 related restrictions have given away for restaurants and bars to to get back open again.
And Alaska are strong in stock position also allowed us to capture demand from strong fishing season down in the coastal villages agricultural source.
It is also important to highlight the impact of the timing of the PFD of the permanent fund dividend.
Last year the dividend was paid was $992 and it was issued earlier in fact in the second quarter. This year, there was a slight increase to 1100 $14.
So I went back to its regular calendar timing, which was paid in the third quarter.
On the flip side. The business has also experienced headwinds from supply chain issues and inflationary trends during the quarter.
And particularly we felt some of these pressures on our gross profit, which decreased two 3% compared to last year due to an 82 basis point reduction as rate of sales.
The decrease in rate was primarily due to changes in product sales plan, particularly related to general merchandise sales in Canada. However, there also an impact of inflation costs that were not fully passed on in certain of our targets, which I'll give you a little commentary just to explain.
Unfortunately in some of our markets.
Our local competitors are lagging when passing along cost increases to customers here. Our focus has remained on keeping both our customers' trust obviously.
And at the same time.
Trying to keep up with the momentum of the market share, we're trying to keep our market share and grow it.
So we asked them what we are definitely very actively monitoring the market for price changes and we want to make sure we remain competitive while at the same time, we're continuing to drive value for our shareholders.
In terms of expenses the quarter for the quarter, there was a $7 $4 million or five 6% decrease compared to last year. This was mainly due to the decrease in share based compensation costs related to mark to market adjustments for changes in our share price.
Excluding the share based compensation costs expenses increased $900000 and were up 12 basis points as a percentage of sales inclusive of reductions on COVID-19 related cost and decreases in international expenses related to the impact of the foreign exchange.
Alright, sure I wanted to take a brief moment to refer to the performance of the airline.
We have seen positive trends in the passenger business demand for scheduled passenger flights are picking up following a reduction in community travel restrictions, which have also had a positive impact on our charter type fly.
This has mitigated this mitigated the impact of the $1 million.
Payment received third quarter last year from the Canada emergency wage subsidy, which we did not actually received this year.
Cargo business continues to be an asset for the company and has provided a competitive advantage to navigate the supply chain constraints and pent up demand.
On the flip side, we experienced unplanned repairs to our atr's, which required us to have a higher usage of leased aircrafts.
These factors have negative impacts on our gross profit rate for the quarter.
Lastly on the airline the APR LCD, which is the status for the large cargo door will stop or start operating this month. This plane is equipped with an oversized panel door on the side of systems.
It actually helps facilitating unloading of Pelletize cargo.
We were using as plain as kind of a proof of concept test reduction of aircraft turn times and met our requirements at base in markets for both our third party as well as our own trade.
After all of the above is considered the company's net earnings increased $3 2 million to $39 2 million compared to last year and on a two year basis net earnings were up $14 3 million or 57, 6% compared to the third quarter of 2019.
That said.
The after tax impact of share based compensation adjusted net earnings decreased from a net earnings decreased by $4 4 million.
However on a two year basis performance was up $14 1 million or <unk> 57, 9% when compared to the third quarter of 2019.
Looking ahead, the short term, it's still subject to the uncertainties of COVID-19, particularly as we see the development of a new on the crime variant.
Based on Australia in stock position I referred to previously we are cautiously optimistic about the holiday selling season. However, we acknowledged the fact that consumer income support in our markets, particularly in northern Canada will be lower compared to last year.
In our Caribbean in specific regions, we will continue to focus on improving our execution at the stores, our assortment and our product flow.
We're also seeing positive trends of tourism coming back and some of our Caribbean markets, although still well below pre pandemic levels.
In Alaska, we expect to continue growing by expanding our footprint to new markets. We are confident that we will hit the goal of three new stores in 2021 two of them already opened and one is on track to open prior to the fiscal year and heading into 2022 the expansion will continue in Alaska.
In Canada, we have focused our efforts on price optimization strategy, we had pause us initiative for a while given the COVID-19 related volatility.
But we are currently recalibrating and doing cash before deploying it banner wide. We anticipate this will be ready to roll out by Q1 next year.
In Northern Canada, we've also been focusing on improving our product flow, which includes initiatives that involve the airlines.
We continue to explore opportunities to improve our end to end supply chain and capitalize on the learnings and successes we've had so far navigating through this pandemic related start a supply chain challenges. We're also doubling down in Canada on a proving our survey and execution at store level.
Companywide overall, we anticipate that the fourth quarter sales to be lower than last year, but higher when compared to 2019, but as I mentioned previously the uncertainties of COVID-19 may sales forecasting quite difficult.
Alright, just one of them.
Let me wrap it up with saying that we are very very pleased with the financial results in this quarter and we will once again like to thank all of our frontline staff and support teams for the passion and commitment shown every day to make People's lives better and the communities that we serve.
With that we'll now ask the operator to open up the call for any questions.
Yes.
Thank you.
We'll now take questions from the telephone lines, if any question and you're using a speaker phone. Please lift your handset before making your selection.
Western Please press star one on your device keypad, if at any time you wish to cancel your question. Please press the pound, saying Please press star one at this time and have a question there'll be a brief pause while the participants register and thank you for your patience.
Our first question is from Michael was on sales from TD Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, good afternoon.
So I wouldn't.
First question is actually on the.
The comment that you said, where inflation was not fully passed on it I know you said you wanted to try and protect your market share.
As are others passing it on.
We're just trying to gain a little bit more or is this the start of your.
Yeah.
It was at the start of your price investments or you're just waiting until Q1 next year for that.
Yeah, the price investment would start next year and it's really a price optimization. It's just looking at we're building some different systems as to how we can optimize pricing. So it's a lowering in our it's lowering some where we are where we cant and there's others that we haven't had full transparency that we think we can do we can kind of offset some of those but that's not what I was referring.
To what I was actually referring to is that some of them in some of our markets. Our competitors were slower to to take the inflation or to lower their prices or increase their prices are as it relates to inflation. So we didn't lead so we waited we waited and until.
They they kind of are.
It until they realize I think as you can see that their prices railway and its just due to some of the sophistication of some of our competitors. So we obviously want to drive that price perception, we don't want to give up market share and so we are we often.
Just make sure that it's sometimes is laggard, let me just say that so it sometimes take a little it takes a little bit more time for the market to correct and some of them more remote markets got okay. So have you seen those price.
This increase was go through or not.
I would say are they are definitely more so yes, I would say.
A majority of them have.
Because there's pretty they're pretty a pretty compelling in some instances so it's hard for the harder for people to Miss.
Okay, and when you talk about your price optimization strategies.
In Q1 next year.
How will you be measuring me because in the past is that if you don't get a return off of it that youre not going to necessarily continue with it so.
Further return immediately or is there a do you expect a three or six month lag how it should we expect you'll be looking at that.
That's a great question, it's really a it's a test timeline. So for example, there's a lot of products that are out shop that we're there we're not competitive enough to compel people to shop us locally. So it's it's a pretty like it is as far as it catches on within the market. So we're making price investments in some of those other items and with some of the where we think we can make mcgraw.
Gross profit dollars, but just lower our rate of sales and then that's just comes down to us being more strategic in our pricing strategy. So that's effectively a so it doesn't we will we won't feel the impact over a long period of time, it's something that we would see some momentum gathering.
Very short order.
Okay and is that something that'll be harder to measure because you're coming off some high in in.
In market or in community shopping levels and now you're just trying to.
Just trying to maintain it rather than <unk>.
Yeah, that's that's a great comment absolutely, which is why we've talked about a full launch next year. So we will be we'll be testing at a pretty vigorously and will have pilot stores, we won't just roll it out to the entire banner. It will be done in pilot stores that we are that we think are more normalized than others, depending on their situation.
Okay.
With giant Tiger gone.
A lot of the markdowns are probably are behind you, but you said you did have some markdown, so where would we have seen those within the business.
With its summit, so the markdown would well.
No you're right a lot of the giant Tigers markdowns are behind us, but there's definitely some other opportunities where we've just had some missed buys and so we take this opportunity. There is some money in the market to to Mark those down and not not hold them on for any extended period of time. So we've been definitely more aggressive on clearing out a call it less saleable inventory.
<unk>.
Okay.
And I'll ask one more and then I'll get back in here, but the the.
The PFD.
<unk> paid late in the quarter.
And I'm wondering if you feel that you felt the full impact.
The impact for the full effect of that payment in Q3 or do you think some of it slipped into Q4.
I think there is going to be some trickle over into Q4.
But we did get a nice we did get a nice portion of it in Q3 for sure.
Alright, Thank you alright.
Alright, Thanks, Michael.
Thank you. The next question is from Mark Petrie from CIBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yeah. Good afternoon, I, just Michael touched on a bunch of my questions, but I just wanted to follow up on the price optimization can you give us a sense.
What parts of your assortment is this going to be focused on it I mean, I'm, assuming food, but if you can be more specific and then also roughly what percentage of your skus.
<unk> would be affected by this.
You're right in that when you're in your first comment it is a lot to do it it's in food, but as far as percentage Eric products, Oh, I'll leave that as a TBD surprise you with the with everybody else.
Okay, Alright, looking forward to that.
Uh huh.
Just with regard to.
North Star I mean, being a drain on gross margin in the quarter what.
Is that going to continue into Q4 or next year or do you feel like you've you've pretty much address that downtime this year.
Yeah, I think we've addressed it I mean, we're going to we've been looking at the team is continuing to get more productive there was kind of an unseen event a maintenance.
Issue this year that was.
Kind of a freak accident, I would say and and and and so we don't expect that to be a continuous ongoing.
Okay, and then given the late labor, let me rephrase that aren't getting his do an accident. He was it it was an MSR write up that came up that was a yeah I guess I have to watch my terminology when referring to the airline. It was it was more a it was an MSR issue that came up with one of the engines Iraq. In fact that was sucked into the engine that caused a pretty.
Serious.
Expense let.
Let me just clarify that Mark [laughter] Yep. Okay helpful. Thank you and then.
Just coming back to the topic of the impact or potential impact of lower government support payments on your business.
Could you just sort of help us understand the relative sort of magnitude of that how much of that do you think you've felt in Q3 versus what we should be expecting.
Into next year, because I think the impact will potentially be greater end and potentially larger than in the U S business I'm guessing, but would just appreciate.
Your perspectives on that.
No. It's a great question and obviously, it's something we think about often but I think the impact actually is going to be in both markets, both Canadian and American markets. Because I you know the American rescue plan is now are starting to to tire and so I don't I think that you know it's depending on what happens obviously new variant then.
What kind of impact that and other variance might have on the economy and on the <unk>.
The size of which we live.
I'd say that we're thinking things are going to get back to a more normalized state next year, but what is a normalized state today, if it's a it's kind of changed the landscape as we know it. So I think as we know everything we know about the funding that's been presented to date it is going to be.
Significantly less than it was this year to what extent depending on what they introduced next year I can't I can't really predict at this point.
Yeah sure absolutely and would you have felt any of that in Q3, I guess, maybe a little bit in your Canadian business I'm not sure exactly but.
Your expectations with regards to the timing of this and when this sort of starts to flow through again assuming that.
Our programs are not renewed or reinstated.
So you're asking me if I if we if part of our performance. This Q3 was as a result of some of the drag out the overflow of a stimulus program is that what you're asking yeah exactly.
<unk> are basically like when all of this flows off.
And you lap these programs in in both Canada and the U S.
Well it is a week.
I mean, we do think that there's still a trickle on.
We suspect going into Q4 of this year a much beyond that.
Again back to previously commented it's a it's a it's unknown to us at this time.
Yeah, Okay, and then I guess one question I, just have sort of more broadly.
You know when you are looking at the stores where.
There is some more sort of you know.
With that are that are located in regions were out shopping is easier.
I think you commented that you're you're pretty pleased with how much business you are retaining I'm. Just curious when you look at those stores or markets is there anything you can glean with regards to sort of the composition of baskets or customer spending patterns that sort of informs how you approach.
Your business and in in in 2022.
Yeah, Mark definitely well, we're first of all where we've got strong in stock. So that's help grocery food and beverages have been strong. So we are where we're keeping more of the of that kind of center store shop in our in market and it's really just being in stock and being at the and being at the right price and this is a kind of a run off of some.
The pricing work that we've done call. It at the beginning or mid Covid era. So we have got we have received some a good reception there and that will that Intel will definitely kind of informed more about how we are how we move forward some of the price optimization I'll call. It our planning in the near future.
Okay and then just my last one I guess just related to your comments with regards to the in stock I mean, you spoke pretty positively about your ability to navigate some of the supply chain challenges, but I have you had situations, where you've had disruptions that have potentially.
Compromised your in stock position and potentially your sales or do you feel like you've navigated this without without any sort of material issues.
No we've definitely been impacted but I've got to say that theres been a lot of substituting theres been a lot of pivoting some called athletic buying as far as looking for new sources, new new suppliers are and that's part of the benefit even if having a the many different regions that we operate in I mean, we we have a lot of we have a long web or a big web.
They were able to kind of source from and the key is we're proving to be much stronger than the competition in all the markets that we're currently operating at so that's a that's been one of the big benefits for sure.
Alright understood Oh, the burst into the holiday says hey, Thanks, a lot mark.
Thank you. The next question is from Neil <unk> from <unk> capital markets. Please go ahead.
Yeah, Hi, thanks, guys.
Just to expand on that supply chain question, so across all your regions.
Youre performing better I guess than any of your competitors for our supply chain and you're leveraging that into the to the rest of your network I assume is that opening up any opportunities for for supplying your non traditional markets for.
Other customers I'm thinking that don't have access to those types of.
Supply chain or distribution.
Good question, Yes, I would say that theres been some opportunities in our <unk> business.
That we've been able to capitalize on our supply chain. So that's that's a that's definitely been a source of some of our incremental business and just joining on building new relationships with other groups that we expect to extend on beyond Covid.
So yeah. The answer is yes predominantly in our some of the southern markets.
Southern markets and you think that might be sticky after all these things are resolved.
We hope so.
The intent for sure I mean, it's I.
I mean do you find out who your strong partners are in times of need and it's the best time to build a relationship because they know they can count on us. So I hope that they are they do it to use your words.
Sticky and that we can kind of feel that for the future.
Okay.
And if we look at some of these remote communities I mean, obviously like travel restrictions were to your benefit right at the beginning of the of the Panther.
Pandemic.
How much has that completely really opened up and customers are willing to travel further to shop or do you think people are still sticking closer I'm trying to figure out.
You haven't really dropped off as much as I would've thought in some of your sales. So it's sticky you're benefiting from it but how much of it could still be lost as more restrictions are lifted.
Yeah. That's that's the question. The key is now that we're trying to in late in the customer experience with everybody. When we have them in our store. So trying to take advantage of that and build that relationship I would say a lot of the markets have been open and people have been mobile, but not nearly as is.
As much as they have call. It pre pandemic. So I think it's really about well we have the attention just a just really building the building the relationship and the customer experience with the.
With the with the community members. So that's that's really what we're focusing on as far as what the quantum is it's just not something I really can share it right now because it's it's not.
It's not really known.
Okay fair enough and if I can just finish off on the standard question labor availability restrictions.
<unk> and <unk>.
Different regions and if its changing depending on which region we're talking about.
Yeah, I mean, you know what.
We have.
Let's start with the southern markets, we have some some stability I mean northern markets it's definitely.
Always always been a challenge, let's say and it's always been something we put a lot of attention to that.
It's always been a focus but I would say that we're focusing now more than ever simply because I think it's gonna be you know, there's a battle for talent.
On for now and then there will be I proceed forever. So we've actually put a lot more focus into developing our customer our employee experience. Just recently hired a chief people officer to do just that their role is to first and foremost to make.
The experience for all of our employees are his lifelong fulfillment fulfilling as we can and it's also looking to make sure. We can understand exactly what are you know what makes it great northwest or if you will and just really trying to get our story out there. So people that are looking for the experience that we can offer them through our stores.
You can find us so it's something I guess in summary, it's something that we're very cognizant of we're putting a lot of resource and time to it and I I like our chances I think we have a great and very unique kind of story to tell and it's just about getting it out there and ensuring we can not only attract but maintained.
Our top people to kind of to follow on our vision.
Our mission.
Have you had to do any appreciable salary increases any specific regions or had to reduced store hours to accommodate or has it basically been minor tweaks in gist.
Employee morale and <unk>.
Training and support.
Well, we are always we haven't had to close stores.
When I say tweaks I mean, we're always ensuring that we're competitive with our compensation packages. So that's just a regular practice that we continue to.
To continue to roll with and we I would say that no. We haven't like we're open to it we're going to in fact render a we've done as of recent we've been doing some.
Market studies to ensure that we're there we're on track.
I'm happy to say that we are and we have a pretty unique value offer obviously, depending on where the stores are there's a lot of ways that we can make.
Make it attractive for people to come in and join the team.
Okay. Thanks.
Thanks Neil.
Thank you once again, please press star one point of your question.
And the next question is from Michael Van <unk> from TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Thanks, a few follow up so your capex is going up a reasonable amount next year can you give us some color as to what you're spending on differently. This year or next year versus this year.
Well, there's obviously I mean with Covid last year, there's some catch up.
So a lot of it is getting some of the work done that we.
Weren't able to do last year.
There's also we have some exciting projects that we're working on.
They're kind of overdue and that we think are are are going to be great projects for us.
Kind of a <unk>.
Drive the business continues to stay in the business moving forward are we at.
At Alaska, obviously, we have our new stores that were that were working on and that was three this year as you recall and we're going to aim to do at least that next year and we're just about to open a we're just in the midst of building our our third store concluding the building that will be opened before the end of this fiscal year. So yeah no. It's.
I'm very happy if Thats. The question I am very happy with the capital projects that were underway a lot of it is some of it is catch up in other other projects are that that are we're able to conclude.
Conclude there are you know come to some good some strong agreements with some of our partners and our it's kind of work a lot of it's work that's been let's call it long overdue.
So it's so it's all good quality work that were they were looking to pursue how.
How much would be maintenance versus growth projects.
Hmm.
I'm trying to think off the top of my head John.
I would say theres, a theres always a bit of growth even Michael in the type of projects, we do like our major store renovations.
Would always have a bit of growth in there. So it makes it a little bit tougher to call. It the halo ago called the Halo effect.
But a good a good chunk of that will be.
Sustaining if you want to look at it that way Dan talked about the new store growth in Alaska That's a.
That's certainly a driver.
But a lot of this is.
Predominantly sustaining with a growth factor, though yeah, yeah as I said, there's always a part of that.
As opposed to pure new store.
Growth.
Okay.
Yeah.
You talked about a $24 $7 million deferred tax liability.
So that would be paid in the next six months.
Uh huh.
Good question, Michael It it's come down substantially.
I think off the top of my head here, probably are our current run rate of.
Taxes paid will continue into the fourth quarter and then start to decrease in Q1 next year I expect it to normalize 2020 was exceptionally low for the reasons that we previously talked about so.
That's the guidance I'll give at this point.
Okay, and then just finally, the NCI b.
Do you expect to be any more active on it this year than last.
Over the next 12 months, let's say.
I think we'll take a look at that I mean, we implemented late last year was our first year in.
We've been I guess active in the market regularly but.
On a on a modest basis and I think thats, a we look at that we look at that.
Our investment in the NCI be relative to other capital.
Requirements in the business opportunities for acquisitions, and our dividend payments. So it's it really is a balancing act Michael So I wouldn't I'd say you know from your perspective shareholders perspective.
Continuing on.
More of the same yeah yeah.
Alright, Thank you and have a great holiday.
Thanks, you too.
Thank you once again, please press star one for any question.
And there are no further questions I would like to join the meeting back over to you Mr. Mcdonald.
Okay, well. Thank you very much everybody for attending much appreciate a much appreciated I do appreciate the questions and same goes for us we'd like to wish you guys, a happy holidays and all the best in the new year and I'm sure. We will be speaking to you and look forward, we look forward to it so thank you.
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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