Q2 2022 General Mills Inc Earnings Call - Question And Answer Session
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During year request one moment please for the first question.
And our first question is from Ken Goldman with Jpmorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Close enough.
Good morning.
Good morning, you highlighted.
But your actions to offset supply disruptions in logistics issues that they are starting to bear fruit.
Great to hear obviously, but we've sort of been seeing similar pattern from the whole sector for a while now.
Quote unquote hidden costs arising management teams think the worst is over and then the next quarter. Unfortunately, the pattern repeat so I guess my question is.
In the wake of these exalting its issues continuing to crop up does your guidance of any sort of bigger cushion in it big or unusual kind of account for the potential that some of these logistics and supply shortages worsen once again in the back half of the year.
Sure Canada Kobe.
Great question.
As you can obviously see a we gave a little bit wider guidance on operating profit than we did on the topline and EPS as a result of the operating profit guidance. So it's robust.
I think what you're alluding to which is the underlying volatility of this environment right at the root cause of that we see.
Eight to 10 fold increase in the amount of disruption in our supply chain. So the predictability is anthem.
In the quarter, but what we provision and expect in the back half.
Did not.
Much of the improvement to the Canada. So as you think about it in relation to last year.
We saw a ramp up in the external supply chain cost in the back half of the year. We don't expect these costs that we're seeing for disruptions.
To really materially change in the balance of our year, but just to replace the ramp up in most external supply chain costs.
And the wider guidance reflects the volatility on the call.
Okay.
Okay. Thank you for that.
And then quick follow up on your cereal business, obviously, you've taken a great deal of share from your larger competitor, but having some unfortunate issues of its own right now.
Can you walk us through a little bit.
Where your plants are in terms of utilization in case that the demand for your products continues to grow over the next few months.
Hi, Kevin It's John duty I would tell you we feel really good about our cereal business and while certainly there's been some short term dislocation from one of our major competitors are performances were current on their time in fact over the last four years, we've had quite strong performance.
And short term issues with the capacity, we need to continue that come to invest.
Vascular brands.
We expect to continue to grow share.
Category <unk> 12, so short term, we feel good about our business.
Business and look at what we've done over the last four years, so that could be with the category.
Yeah.
Please allow me to go to the next question.
Certainly our next question is from Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Please proceed.
Good morning, happy holidays, everybody.
Hum.
Thank you, Jeff I'm curious, how general mills thinks about sort of a balance between let's say shorter term profitability given the dramatically higher cost to serve currently versus the potential for longer term benefits from sort of.
Sort of stepping up and servicing the customer and consumer in this difficult environment. So I guess I guess, what gives you the confidence that fulfilling this excess demand at this higher cost is sort of worthwhile and like where is that cut off and where you would decide to forego a sale not suggesting we're kind of at that point yet.
Yeah, Andrew I mean, you know one of the things we spent quite a bit of time looking at the tradeoffs between things like customer service and margin and sales growth and that sort of thing.
And we are always trying to make sure we play the long game and looking at these things we've been around for 155 years as you play that we play the long game.
I would say in this environment. There is a huge trade off I'm not sure. There is a trade off between higher service levels and cost and that's because if we were to take our foot off the gas.
Service.
But we would find is that we create more deleverage and we would incur fines because youre more innovation, we get fine for our retail customers because the more efficient and then we'd be shipping truckloads of stuff.
That were probably the most efficient and so there really isn't a cost tradeoffs. So I don't we would not be making more money equity lessened our service we feel like our responsibility at the end of the day is to the end consumer and making sure. They have the products. They wanted to see what our retail customers and by fulfilling that we're doing our job. The only thing we would gain by lessening service.
On margins with Oklahoma, Nutter butter sales will be down, but we wouldnt make any more money for general mills shareholders, and we certainly wouldn't generate more cash than we're generating now either.
Got it got it thanks, and then just a quick follow up.
In the outlook I think you say general mills expect back half EPS growth to be more weighted to fiscal <unk> does this mean you see some even if modest EPS growth in <unk> and just far more in <unk> or do I not have that right. Thanks, so much.
Yeah.
Appreciate the question.
It really reflects is our expectation that we will see.
An improvement off of the margin decline that we just posted in Q Q2.
And sequential improvement on that as we work to ramp from Q3 to Q4.
Thank you.
Our next question is from Nik Modi with RBC capital markets. Please proceed with your question.
Thank you good morning, everyone and happy holidays.
I guess the question <unk>.
Can you just give us some context on the inflation Delta in terms of the guidance, where where things are worse than you expected and then.
The other question I had around the types of activities I mean, we've heard a lot of companies talking about things are better.
But it just seems like the retailers aren't passing all of the <unk> wanted to get your thoughts around that as we kind of go forward over the next few months or quarters.
Sure Yeah, Let me, let me start with your first question.
As a reminder, on the frame here about 55% of our input costs are sitting in raw and packaging materials 30 in.
Manufacturing in the remainder of the logistics and what we really saw that kind of accelerated was.
Particular, our raw and packaging material and putting out to the double digits.
<unk>, which we now expect to was already in the double digits continued to survive with the loss of that base and manufacturing remaining.
In the low single digits in particular, as we look at the sourcing in packaging.
Aluminum and resin cyber raw materials, Greens, fats and oils and meet our particular pressure clients as well as pretty feeling as we look at the logistics cost structure.
And then on your second question in relation to <unk>.
Sure John So one of the things, we're really pleased with a strong capable.
Capabilities that we've built over the last five six years.
And a lot more data and analytics and Delever some of them are talent.
So we've been closely monitoring obviously the pricing taken on reflection of understanding the market and it's really eating our expectations. At this point, we have seen elasticity, but are certainly better than what we would've modeled historically to be the mix.
Back half had been more elasticity and we'll continue to monitor our capabilities, it's really an ulcer.
Type a system, where we're literally looking at pricing on a daily basis could you monitor and adjust.
Great. Thanks, a lot guys.
Okay.
Our next question comes from Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Hi, Thanks, I hope everyone's well.
I wanted to know.
You're raising your prices John and you're you're.
Showing customers your inflation.
And your.
<unk> like 8% to 9%.
Do you also show them the supply chain disruption cost that you're you're incurring.
And is it possible.
To justify the pricing based on this cause like a customer could argue that maybe some of that's transitory.
Yeah.
So I wanted to know how that conversation goes.
Absolutely.
I've been doing this for a long time.
Today, the conversations are no easier than happened in the past I think everyone recognizes as moderate inflation.
Our job justification, we spent a lot of time on the case most of the case is built around inflation will end market basket. So.
I think with that because we think over a longer period of time.
Retailers are very aware with short term supply chain costs that we're incurring to them trying to sand costs at this point until it all kinds of conversations.
Okay.
While macro factors and inflation.
Suggests type pricing.
Yes.
Mike My question, John So is it more difficult then to factor in.
Supply chain disruption as justification.
Like the pricing that you're taking is that designed to offset 8% to 9% inflation longer term or is it also designed to offset some of this disruption as well.
Yes, so if you look at.
If you look at our Tyson is one page.
It allows us to inflation, it's really in the short term.
Cost levers to pull in.
The bogey for us and that is on our conversations with retailers in Canada.
We want to make sure that we place.
In a way that is right for our consumers as well so were balancing how much pricing ecommerce is warranted and that really led us to these restaurants.
So we're trying to take a long view licensed standpoint, and clearly there are some short term things that are challenging.
With the option to us.
But Rob I think you bring up a good point, John John answered it well, but some of these supply chain disruptions in EMEA.
Will be transitory and we don't expect them to improve for the rest of our fiscal year as noted by coby earlier.
But over the longer term I mean, the supply chain will get more efficient we've got a terrific agent productivity.
Productivity capabilities and so we are highly confident that these costs over time our cost.
The business model will not bear and so even if it's a tougher conversation every retailers now we're confident over over time once the.
Once the market stabilizes. These are costs that we can recoup in our P&L.
Got it okay Jeff.
This is Joe I'd add one more point.
Maybe.
And the nail on the head.
While we don't expect these disruption environment necessarily to improve meaningfully in the back half as koby said reduced our margin performance year over year or to improve which is really all about the comparisons get quite a bit easier as we have more of their supply chain cost in the back half of last year. So the cost that we're seeing this year on year over year basis.
So the headwind, which is which really drives gross and operating margin improvement in the back half.
Okay actually I have more questions, but it's Christmas. So this you might give to you is Canada.
Uh huh.
Yes.
Thanks.
Got it.
Yeah.
Gift, but something.
Yeah.
Okay.
Our next question is from Jason English with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Hey, good morning, folks and happy holidays.
Joe Steven.
Steven.
That's just you just clarified one of my questions with coakley, but I'm going to still ask ask them.
Some of the finer point.
Year on year, obviously, the gross margin pressure is coming from sides just given the comps you have but you've got price mounting a climbing through the rest of the year I also knee replacement coming as we think about sequentially. The gross margins to dip down in the second quarter is this a floor level based on what you know today mix can we expect should we expect sequential growth in gross margins.
I think I think.
What you can expect is we will see improvement off of the decline.
And sequential improvement as we move through from Q3 to Q4.
And that's about as far as we've implied in the guidance we've given you.
Okay. Okay. So implicitly the <unk> margins could be weaker than Q2.
Next question.
The U S. Consumer is still obviously very good flush with cash, but one of your competitors has already noted that trade out inquiries began to resume in categories like cereal.
Are you seeing something similar across any of your categories and what are you planning for in regards to trade down behavior price elasticity et cetera, as we begin to cycle the pretty big stimulus checks early next year.
Okay.
Jason This is John.
We've seen a dynamic play out.
Look at our business most of our categories or businesses strengthening because we look at share versus private label private label posture.
And you'll be sure so and we'll continue to monitor that and we believe our ability to brand and innovating and doing the best.
Best we're trying to do business and if you look back historically.
During times of recession, our brands performed well so at this point, we haven't seen any change in dynamics.
And I would add on that Jason you Havent seen in foodservice either haven't seen as we haven't seen in Europe, we havent seen in China, or Brazil, So we simply haven't seen that behavior.
Yeah, I haven't seen it either I was surprised by their competitor, noting it which is why I asked the question, but thanks, a lot for the clarification guys happy holidays.
Correct.
Our next question is from Steve powers with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
Yes, Hey, thanks, and good morning from me as well.
On the supply chain disruptions.
But you are seeing in labor shortages et cetera.
Taking all your your prior comments in context, I guess are there are there is there a cadence that youre expecting or places, where youre, a little bit more optimistic weather categories of.
Bottlenecks or or or geographic.
But geographic overlays.
Is there a replaces what you're facing now where you're where you're relatively more more optimistic versus not in terms of funding that relief.
Just curious.
Yes.
One of the challenges right now infrastructure are really really across the entire supply chain on some cases.
Zero disruption really attacking category other cases, we're capacity constrained.
Can you frame, which is instruments challenge for all of our businesses I'd say, probably the one area.
We do believe we'll get better as you move to the back half so those functions.
Oh really justified solution.
And we will see some listeners come online for some key ingredients are really harness group for Q2, that's another one area.
Did you expect to get a bit better we would expect our service levels remain strong.
In the back half of the year with a Q3 will look a lot like you see with coupons and other novel.
While our Q1 on average.
Service will look Simona back out to the first half.
Okay, great and just to be just to clarify that for you are you expecting that relief to come in the ingredient sourcing, but more because you're diversifying less left because the conditions get better there.
That's fair.
Today <unk> seen an improvement.
Availability across materials and every time, you do something about it or something else goes the other way to ask Barry.
Yeah.
Okay, Great and then the other question I had was just on Europe, and Australia, where the margin pressure is.
Obviously.
Exceptionally acute just as you go into.
Annual price negotiations there just your your based on what you are talking about so far just your relative confidence that that will be a source of.
Relief further relief in the fourth quarter as those those negotiations take it back.
Alright, thank you.
Offline.
Constraints on pricing in that environment, there is a pretty firm negotiation window.
For for pricing I can't comment on anything forward looking obviously, but.
What I will.
We will confirm this that that's why you're seeing our margin.
<unk>.
Under a little bit more pressure than the rest of it.
Segments in particular, as you look at that pricing and mix contribution.
Two to sales growth.
Youll see that.
There so.
Okay.
And it's a very okay great.
I would just add it's also since it's a small business that's about 10% of that.
Yes.
Home sales.
Yes understood.
Yeah.
Our next question is from Wendy Nicholson with Citigroup. Please proceed.
Hi, good morning.
My first question has to do just in terms of the magnitude of the pricing at retail in North America can you give us a sense for how high you think that would be maybe over the next six months.
No.
We generally don't comment on forward looking pricing and just know that we have pricing already in the marketplace that we've already announced to our customers. So we're confident that it will be higher in the second half of the year, but as a rule we don't comment on the specifics of forward looking pricing.
Alright fair enough, but I guess my question is.
With regard to the competitive activity I know you said private label really isn't a threat and they are not gaining share.
It's sort of over a longer term basis.
Your share trends have been terrific, but I assume at some point competition is kind of start to fight back harder and maybe in terms of theory all your competitor.
Your competitor has their hands tied behind their back a little bit from a supply perspective, but can you talk about what youre seeing maybe from some of the other branded guys in North America in your other categories are they being as equally aggressive on pricing do you expect them to step up promotion in an effort to gain share just maybe what youre seeing.
Kind of in the store right now.
No I think I think it's probably best to let our competitors talk about about what their pricing is going to be and what their outlook for their business is one of the things I'm. Most proud of money that you did announced I'm glad you noted.
Most American detailed we've been doing.
Our pet business.
We've been doing it in Europe, and in China, and Brazil, and so one of the things that most of them.
But even in this tough environment, we continue to compete very very effectively.
Secondly, and I think that's a sign of the quality of our execution and our customer service levels and so no matter what the I know that was happening before the pandemic. This effort through the pandemic at 70, now and so I think that.
That is the most important thing and there's a lot of the time our competitors, we're not constrained by supply and they did not have material disruption and so.
All those things come and go and when you take them as they come and go but one of the things I am most pleased with is our performance has ever been able to do all of that while we are shaping our portfolio and so we've added pepper hands and it's worked really well, we've divested our yogurt business and in Europe right now.
<unk>.
And we restructured our organization. So we have been able to have all of this competitive.
Quality without Wow, while navigating a lot of change internally as well as lifestyle lines.
And just in terms of the North America.
I assume one of the big contributing factors to your market share gains.
Is there any innovation, we see not just been terrific.
Across the portfolio in North America, retail, but I assume innovation kind of comes in waves.
Some quarters are stronger than others.
We're not looking for specifics for things you Havent announced yet, but just generally can you comment kind of thinking maybe about calendar 2022. If you think the innovation pipeline. Thanks to come are as strong as you've launched over the last six to 12 months, just sort of conceptually as innovation.
Still set to be a good strong driver of hopefully more even more market share gains.
Yes sure.
As Jeff noted that we've been performing well over a long period of time.
And that's really by focusing on the fundamentals and one of those fundamentals of innovation brand building and innovation are key to our brands over time and so one of the thing.
And then it was pulled back on innovation that we can't find anything that our customers really appreciate that we've kept the pedal down so as we move into calendar year 2022, we would expect to see similar levels of penetration versus what we saw in the past year in some cases, we have some bigger ideas. We're quite excited about so at the end of the day, whether theres inflation or not.
The fundamental matter that's about building their brands as part of innovation.
We will continue to do as you move forward.
Terrific. Thank you.
Okay.
Yes.
Our next question is from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Good morning happy holidays.
Yes.
During the quarter in North America, you mentioned that your shipments lagged consumption by about 2% because of the service challenges you experienced can you just elaborate on what some of the dynamics that contributed to that and would you expect this to continue into the back half of the year and I guess as a fall.
Follow up is that is it related to inventory levels and do you feel like you have adequate inventory levels to meet elevated demand into the back half.
Downtime clearly as we've talked about lots of challenges in the supply chain and those have an impact.
To service, our customers or our service levels.
During quarter one.
Low to mid eighties versus high na use alternatives long, we couldn't ship all the demand that we saw so as a result retailers to Donald dividends are turning the corner on the cat.
<unk> talked about as you look to the back half, we do expect our service levels to be similar to <unk>.
So we wouldn't expect to materially close that gap move through the back half of our fiscal year clearly our goal is to continue to strengthen our supply chain as we get into.
'twenty three and beyond.
People or the other.
<unk> from field service solid.
That's the only thing that we've pivoted to is a new metric on shelf availability and that's really important.
And while it's certainly not where we want them to be and is better than our competition and our share of sales.
Sales of our move in Q2, not being shot is lower than our competition as well and that's really a testament to our supply chain of the pre shopped are doing and the communication will be out with our customers.
Great. Thanks can you talk about short.
Sure.
If it is do you have I mean.
Operational side to manage the disruption that you are experiencing in the supply chain and I guess over the longer term are there any changes that youre, making operations or.
Increasing investments in capabilities that our automation.
In response to the current operating environment.
Yes for sure we went back a lot of the practices that we put in place and it depends on mix.
We have our dailies <unk>, Oregon level front.
<unk> share of weekly supply chain huddle will follow.
Our senior leaders across the business talking about the biggest issues.
Trying to help our team worked through some of the challenges that are out there. We're leveraging data analytics. One thing you just alluded to for long periods, Australia, increasing our investments in our capabilities there and that's starting to bear fruit. So do you think about the number of trucks, we got running across North America food.
So that the multiple on the art.
Currently and Thats good for us to confirm our business good for our customers confirm margins, we're starting to leverage that technology, we have a host of other initiatives.
From a status on analytics and supply chain will help us over time and we're also getting you to look at our distribution centers and their spouse March.
Some of those facilities, where we are challenged right now from a labor standpoint, so we have a host of them.
Things happening at the end of the day communications, it's probably one of the most important communication with our vendors to make sure that we get ingredients, we even keep a plus funding and then we spent a lot of time meeting with our customers.
Tighter supply chain standpoint.
Wanted to know real time, where we are.
The mix shift searched Thunder Bayou, Canada also in service centers.
Thank you.
Our next question is from David Palmer with Evercore ISI. Please proceed.
Thanks, Good morning happy holidays.
Just looking back at your presentation Slide number 32, which is that gross margin waterfall chart. Thanks for that and there's no numbers on some of those steps in the chart, but it looks like.
The supply chain disruptions deleverage and other is a large part of the or the majority of the decline if you net out everything else in other words about 300 basis points, maybe you can confirm if thats at least ballpark correct.
But also obviously these effects are not new to the quarter.
Do you think about that same line item supply chain disruptions to deleverage and other.
Through the year and what's implied in the guidance for the second half.
Yeah. So let me let me so thank you for the question David.
Start with Q2, and then I'll talk about.
Do you expect going forward.
Arena is about exactly right. So just to be very correct. I think you've got about 300 basis points of or so related to the combination of those disruption factors.
<unk> and price mix.
Quarter offset the impact.
<unk>.
But I think going forward, what you can expect as you move into the back half.
The step up starting in Q3 and the contribution from price mix.
I'd expect it.
Inflation to be roughly equal front half back half, so it's pretty evenly spread across the quarters.
Cereal there and then.
Are you seeing in the drag of the headwind from <unk>.
The other a supply chain disruption costs, not that because the cost of sales raising but because.
As you think about the comparison to last year, we saw a ramp up.
And other costs, primarily driven by our step into.
Greater external supply chain costs. So we don't expect these costs to ease we expect them to replace a lot of those.
We saw last year, so effectively that's.
Kind of think about the back half of the year and what drives the margin improvement at least that from Q3 to coupon.
Great. That's helpful. Thank you and then you mentioned in one of your remarks that you thought the price elasticity would perhaps get.
A little less good.
And less favorable later in the year I mean, what is your thinking there I think it was John that made that comment I mean, how much that's something we've been thinking a lot about is it the lapping of stimulus for greater availability of private label or value brands that have perhaps been more supply chain constrained whats youre thinking about price elasticity as you get further.
And to say calendar 'twenty two.
Yeah.
So.
Let me start first I think I might have missed progress and.
Inflation was announced actually steps up in the back half HMS imbalance, but.
To your question on elasticity.
We are assuming a moderate increase in price elasticity, although still below our historical levels in the back half. So that's what is contained in our our sales and profit guidance.
I think we're just trying to be pragmatic right. So.
You mentioned in Korea.
That benefits our decrease a bit although it's still elevated versus two.
2019 levels so.
I'm, just trying to I'm not from losses.
He also has played out.
Got it thank you.
Our next question is from Chris Growe with Stifel. Please proceed.
Hi, good morning.
Good morning.
Oh that might happen and happy holidays as well.
I had just two questions. The first one would just be in relation to the incremental $500 million of inflation from your initial expectations I'm just curious.
If you could frame how much of that is cost inflation and how much of that is supply chain disruptions. I think you said that's incorporated into that figure just to get a sense of like what's ongoing what is installed four if I can say that with them.
Hopefully we will be transitory.
Yeah.
Great question, Chris I'll, let me take a crack at it so as you think about that.
$1 billion of increased costs.
Came in since the start of the year.
Our expectations.
Half of that.
Less than half of that is sitting in inflation, so, which we're now estimating to be 8% to 9% for the full year that implies obviously, a double digits in that segment.
Back half the other half is really.
Related to those factors.
The disruption.
The supply chain, so most of which is driven by a direct costs.
And John alluded to.
<unk> Crazy alternative supply all of the things that we're doing some permits to ensure that we keep customer service levels.
Okay. Thank you for that color there and then just.
A follow up question I think a bit today's question.
But so this quarter had a stronger pricing performance than I expected, but the gross margin was weaker and I'm just trying to understand.
The incremental inflation youre feeling that did more of that as we think about for the year to more of that come through in <unk>, causing the weaker gross margin.
I'm trying to put that with your comments about second half inflation still be up a bit versus first half so.
But in the quarter was that a more.
Heavier drag on the gross margin.
The drag came from a combination of inflation and really we saw a step up in the cost of the disruption in Q2 from Q1 to Q2.
So that was actually a bit more of the driver as we look at the quarter.
And then I think as we go forward as I alluded to we expect our price mix contribution from actions that we've already announced and.
<unk> customers to start probably mid quarter, and then ramp fully into into Q4.
Okay. Thank you for your time.
Thanks, Chris.
Yes.
Okay.
Sure.
And our final question will be from Mike collaborate with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.
Thank you good morning.
Modest level.
You've obviously.
<unk> talked a lot about the disruption in the various stages of supply chain can you just give us a sense in your guidance.
What youre, assuming relative to our vaccine mandate and what that might do.
Impact the labor market or testing costs or both.
And we actually don't have a specific.
Provision for the vaccine mandate.
But it is still.
Working its way through the court, but we are expecting it to have.
Material impact on our guidance beyond what we've already.
Alright.
So if it if it did stick you feel like the incremental cost would be.
Pretty pretty modest or just capture given what you already have allow for it.
It's probably more of a second Michael.
On Windows that we didn't get it gives us coverage.
Okay, Great and then on the.
North America retail component.
That business is pretty significant.
Inefficiently outperforming but.
It had been for a while one of the laggards can you just maybe give a sense of what's really given that a boost.
Is it related to a better ability to supply product or is there is it more innovation and some other factors.
Hi, Michael.
So we see the brand category and the bar category really.
Celebrating after the lockdown and people got back to more mobile so the categories up nicely our business actually on borrowings was 16% in Q2.
Not up quite as much as the category will continue to stay focused on building. Our brands is still the number one brand and category mix.
Innovation each monthly pass pass pass.
First half and then we're seeing a lot of the kids segment is probably the one area that we're not keeping up with Nike products, we have.
You see some competitive products like rice krispies treats can drawn robust base.
So that's probably the one area that we are losing share overall, we might go with the competing and borrowers just folks.
Randall did a new snack category really likes fruit snacks has been amazing category for us over the last four or five years. Our biggest challenge is keeping up from a capacity standpoint.
It continues to be challenged from a capacity.
More coming online in the back half will continue to grow that business nicely double digits, which is really exciting. So we like our snacks business Health Department.
Okay, great. Thanks, so much.
Thanks, Bob.
Okay.
All the time, we have this morning appreciate everyones interest and good questions and discussion and thanks for.
Sticking with us during the holiday week.
We wish everybody a restful holiday season, and look forward to picking up in the new year. Thanks, So much.
That does conclude the conference call for today, we thank you for your participation and ask that you. Please disconnect your lines.
Okay.
Okay.
No.
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