Q1 2022 Greif Inc Earnings Call
20th birthday, and review our continued growth plans.
The Bill to lab strategy consists of four mission, creating.
Creating thriving communities.
Delivering legendary customer service.
Protecting our future and ensuring financial strength.
Mission, one creating thriving communities.
Achieving zero harm environment, and creating an even more engaged diverse and inclusive workplace and the future.
Thriving communities will help us win the war for talent.
Our second mentioned delivering legendary customer service involves finding ways to serve customers better each day.
This mission includes implementing new technologies that will increase our agility and help us deliver faster and more comprehensive customer solutions let.
Legendary customer service combined with gripes unmatched global portfolio and product offerings farms, the powerful business competitive advantage.
Mission three protecting our future is about embracing a low carbon world and further enhancing our focus on product circularity.
So it is already a sustainability leader to bake evidenced by our recently awarded fourth consecutive eco modest gold rating.
But we will take additional steps to mitigate risks associated with climate changes and capture opportunities related to product circularity and sustainable solutions for our customers.
Finally, our fourth mission, ensuring financing strike entails generating high margin EBITDA growth should deliver a growing sustainable profit and cash flow stream that enhances shareholder value creation.
The Bill to last strategy is founded upon our bedrock the driveway, which has guided our business for many years and remains the focal point of our culture.
Look forward to sharing more about build to last with you at our Investor day.
Please turn to slide five.
I'm fortunate to be surrounded by an exceptional team charged with helping to activate the bill to that strategy.
These pixel ordinary serving leaves us possesses extensive industry knowledge and a demonstrated commitment to disciplined operational execution and customer service excellence.
They are a rich and diverse set of skills and experiences.
Along with proven records of performance will drive even greater success in the future.
I Hope you will join us at Investor Day in June to interact with them.
Finally, before jumping into our results I would like to announce some changes to our investor relations team.
Matt Eichmann really the well has been promoted to chief marketing and sustainability officer effective months first Matt has done an outstanding job with ascending rights to the investment community. The last six years and I'm excited to have him take on this exciting leadership opportunity.
Med Lady who currently leads our corporate development team has added the role of Investor relations to his responsibilities.
<unk> extensive by site experiences and has been instrumental in executing our acquisition strategy and portfolio changes since joining our team almost four years ago.
I am confident that <unk> will be a strong leader in the Investor relations role and will build upon Matt Eichmann efforts to improve investor communications share insights on our business and financial condition and ensure that leaves us at cross price understand what our investors.
And all of Us expect us.
Please turn to slide six to begin our business review.
Global industrial packaging delivered an outstanding first quarter results global large plastic drums and <unk>.
<unk> volumes grew by roughly 8% and 11% respectively versus the prior year quarter.
Global steel drum volume fell by 4% per day versus the prior year due to customer supply chain and labor issues, despite strong underlying demand.
Similar to quarter four the biggest volume shortfall was in APAC reflective of our decision to implement strategic pricing actions and supply chain disruptions that negatively impacted our customers' operations.
Generally speaking our end markets remain healthy customer report solid order backlogs and strong underlying demand, but continue to face external supply chain disruptions and labor challenges.
We also hear that our customers customer have depleted inventory levels, which should eventually translate into a tailwind for Brian .
GI piece generally stronger volumes and higher average selling prices resulted in significantly higher segment sales year over year.
The business first quarter, adjusted EBITDA rose by roughly $35 million due to higher sales, partially offset by higher raw material costs.
During the quarter, we continued to experience favorable price cost conditions, given timing inventory or inventory cost and the structure of our price adjustment mechanisms, we anticipate tip's price cost benefit to deteriorate as we move later into the fiscal year.
Finally.
We received several questions about our Ukrainian and Russian businesses that I want to address directly.
This is an this is an evolving situation that we continue to monitor and assess continuously with a dedicated task force.
We are a pause by the ruthless aggression, we have witnessed in the Ukraine over the last seven days.
We operate one flexible plant in the country that has been temporarily closed.
Our primary focus has been and will continue to be the safety and wellbeing of our Ukrainian colleagues and assisting them and their families any way we can.
In Russia, we operate nine facilities.
The business predominantly source raw materials locally and service local customers.
It processes very minimal cross border exposure and contributes less than 3% to total company operating profit annually, we do hedge roughly half of our ruble exposure.
In times of crisis, we lead on our venues and use the greif way to guide our direction.
While extremely upset at a cursed by the aggressive actions taken by the Russian governments as with our Ukrainian colleagues. Our focus is on all of the people.
We remain in full support of our Russian colleagues and continue to operate in Russia with also that will be our priority.
Please turn to slide seven.
In January we announced an agreement to divest our 50% ownership in Fps.
Although we have worked closely with our joint venture partner. The last 12 years, we evolved to have differing views on the future of this business.
The sale of about 50% stake and flexible.
We'll generate net cash proceeds of approximately $123 million subject to customary closing conditions.
We anticipate the deal to close this by the end of March 2022, and have incorporated a divestiture impacts into our financial fiscal 'twenty two guidance.
Our children and refine this photo you can assume Fps ballpark annual adjusted EBITDA contribution to be roughly 35 billion.
For context, seven years ago, when <unk> was struggling we try to markets considering a disposition with virtually no interest notwithstanding I want half of Fps for substantially more than the best offer at that time for the entire business.
On behalf of <unk> leadership team I want to thank our flexible colleagues for their hard work over the past 12 years.
The team has driven considerable improvements in the business and demonstrated professionalism throughout and we thank them for their continued commitment during the transition periods.
Please turn to slide eight.
Paper packaging first quarter sales rose by roughly 129 million versus the prior year due to stronger volumes and higher published containerboard and box prices.
Adjusted EBITDA rose by roughly 24 million versus the prior year due to higher sales, partially offset by higher raw material transportation and utility costs, including a significant 42 million drag from significantly higher OCC costs.
Similarly, similar to the fourth quarter volume demand across the business remain strong.
Water and our combined mill backlogs still exceed all exceeded eight weeks.
First quarter volumes in our core choice seem to be the system were up roughly half a percent per day versus the prior year.
E Commerce automotive parts food and durables demand all remain very solid.
First quarter, Cuba call volumes were up by four 6% per day versus the prior year with demand strong across almost all end markets.
I will now turn you over to our CFO Berryhill Shiloh on slide nine.
Thank you good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today like only I want to start by thanking our colleagues for an outstanding first quarter with record financial results.
By my Count. This is the 13th consecutive quarter that we have met or exceeded consensus expectations, along the way we've dealt with COVID-19 supply chain constraints and labor challenges yet we continue to execute with excellence. Thanks to the global brand teams.
Team's dedication.
First quarter, adjusted EBITDA rose by $58 million year over year, Despite an OCC index headwind of $42 million and roughly $33 million of non volume related to transportation and manufacturing labor inflation.
Absolute SG&A dollars rose $17 million versus the prior year quarter, mainly due to higher health medical and incentives cost.
But fell 200 basis points on a percentage of sales basis.
Below the line interest expense fell by $8 million versus the prior year quarter due primarily to refinancing our 2021 Euro notes with a low rate bank debt. We expect interest expense to fall further as we utilize the proceeds from the flexible divestment on debt repayment and also benefit from having refinanced.
On Tuesday, our six 5% 2027 senior notes with additional bank debt utilizing a mix of floating and fixed rates below three 5%.
Our first quarter non-GAAP tax rate was roughly 31% and significantly higher year over year due to increased pre tax income with a higher proportion of that income in the U S and less positive discrete items than the prior year.
Even with significantly higher tax expense, our first quarter adjusted class a earnings per share will still more than doubled to $1 28 per share.
Finally first quarter adjusted free cash flow was $19 million cash outflow and lower year over year, primarily due to higher capex related maintenance and organic growth investments in <unk> plastics and specialty corrugated products.
Please turn to slide 10.
Our core capital priorities remain unchanged reinvest in the business to create value and support growth return excess cash to shareholders via an attractive and growing dividend and maintaining a compliance leverage ratio between two to two five times.
Our balance sheet has been rock solid shape, thanks to aggressive deleveraging as promised we are.
That comfortably within our targeted leverage ratio range and anticipate further downward bias in the near future Bally.
Balance sheet strength provides us with financial flexibility to pursue value accretive opportunities and we are currently finalizing our strategic planning process to determine the focus of growth activities going forward, we will share more with you at Investor Day in June .
Please turn to slide 11.
We are increasing our fiscal 2022 guidance, despite eliminating flexible income for the period of April one.
To October 31, which was present in the guidance we issued at Q4, we have overcome that headwind and increased the midpoint of our adjusted earnings per share guidance by 45, <unk> to $6.60 a share for fiscal 'twenty, two reflective of solid first quarter performance announced.
Paper price increases and lower interest expense, we have de levered deliberately kept a wider range than normal given uncertainty introduced by the unfortunate events in Europe .
We now anticipate generating between 380 and $440 million of adjusted free cash flow in fiscal 'twenty two while our profit expectations have increased since Q4 that improvement is isn't fully reflected in free cash flow, primarily due to higher anticipated cash taxes and increased working capital loss.
Due to announced price increases.
Finally, you will find a slide with key modeling assumptions in the appendix of today's deck for use as needed. Please turn to slide 12.
It is important to take a step back from time to time and look at the bigger picture when considering investment opportunities at Greif, We don't run our enterprise with the quarter in mind instead, our value creation model is focused on performance over the long term.
As I've just shown on the prior slide we have a track record of delivering on our guidance expectations. The execution discipline, we've demonstrated to grow profits over the long haul no matter. The circumstance is fueled sustained outperformance you will see here relative to a broader bucket of industrial companies.
Please turn to slide 13.
Despite sustained outperformance, we continue to trade at a substantial discount relative to other packaging firms, which mystifies us.
We invite your thoughts and welcome your feedback about why we are situated dismayed given we delivered on our financial commitments made in 2015, and 17 2019 and are in a record of exceeding congested consensus estimates is clear.
I totally understand that it is investors do determine our value. However, our opinion has been our equity deserves a much closer look given the substantial discount president in our stock today.
With that I'll turn the call back to <unk> for his closing comments on slide 14.
Larry.
Please turn to slide 14 for a few closing remarks before the Q&A.
I am very proud of our team's first quarter performance as bribes legendary customer service comes together with execution discipline and unmatched product portfolio, our proven and disciplined capital allocation strategy and sustainability leadership to form a value creation engine that benefits.
Our shareholders and other stakeholders like.
Looking ahead, we are well positioned to benefit from ongoing strength and improving trends in our key end markets and our future is bright thank.
You for your time and attention today.
Operator, please open the line for questions.
Thank you as a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question. Please press Star then one on your telephone keypad and please limit yourself to one question with one follow up.
First question is from Ghansham Panjabi with Baird. Your line is open.
Hey, guys. Good morning, Thanks for all the details congrats to the to the method two minutes as well as well as you Ali.
I guess first off Exxon.
The <unk> segment at.
At least as it relates to the first quarter and the operating profit outperformance.
Did that come in better than you thought it.
Suddenly came in better than our assumptions.
Take us through the <unk>.
What perhaps drove the upside specific to that segment in the first quarter.
Okay Gotcha.
But all we can comment.
As well, but a couple of things.
Volume was.
As strong as we expected to be slightly better.
Pricing was.
Much better and we had also thought that steel costs drop in December which they did not really drop until January which worked out very well for us in.
In terms of our price adjustment mechanisms.
Those were the two key elements of it.
We operate with a very disciplined pricing approach on all our markets and we continue to add value over volume in mice.
You can see on our APAC volumes.
And that's really due to these deselecting business that was in the red.
We have a great team out there really executing hot on staying ahead of the inflationary price curve and they've done really well.
We will continue to do that.
Got it Okay, and then last quarter on your conference call you'd noted that steel costs going up at.
<unk> added about $100 million to fiscal year 'twenty one.
Specific to Gi piece on operating profit and I think you assume that 2022 guidance basically embedded stable still.
Steel cost environment.
The World has changed commodities are reflecting again, so can you just update us on that view for 2022.
Yes, your recollection is correct ghansham we.
Indicated we had that $100 million tailwind last year because of the rapid increase we did indicate that we thought there would be some decrease in steel, but then it would remain fairly stable for the rest of this year, we've got that essentially built into our guidance going forward, but the last week, we all are hearing.
Potential for steel cost increases.
Is that the whether that creates a benefit for us or not will just depend on the timing and the pace.
But it's not bad news for us.
But you haven't changed that specific to the revised guidance right.
We have not we've just staying with our prior view on the path of steel costs for the year.
Thanks, so much.
The next question is from Adam Josephson with Keybanc. Your line is open.
Ollie Larry good morning, and congratulations to everyone on your new roles.
Yeah.
Larry just following up on <unk> question can you update us on your price cost expectations for the year in the paper business in other words, what where they three months ago. What are they know how much have they gone up by just given lower OCC and the price increases that you're implementing.
Any help there would be great.
Yes, we have not dramatically decreased our.
Thoughts on OCC, It's now 158, so not a dramatic decrease relative to the.
The upside in pricing you know what we've got out on the street, we basically.
Into our range about a $65 million.
Net.
Price cost benefit for the rest of the year.
What we had previously had.
In paper.
Adam and we've got ranges around that just to provide some upside downside given the uncertainties in the economy, but that's.
That's the amount we are building.
Just one follow up on that Larry so $65 million higher than three months ago. What is so what is the your actual price cost expectation for that segment for the year now.
It's consistent with what we've put out in price increases obviously, we are fully expecting that we will achieve.
Saturday in the containerboard at 50% to 50.
We're at 158 on OCC.
I just mean in terms of the price cost relationship for the year in that business is embedded in your earnings guidance.
Yes.
I don't have that kind of improved.
Yes, we added up substantially in our initial guidance.
Got it okay.
And just on the cash flow Larry So it seems like the same factors that are.
The same factors that are resulting in increases in your earnings guidance, notably the improving price cost relationship is also resulting in lower cash flow expectations. The same was the case last year.
Yeah.
Okay, I guess would you agree with that.
Very much connected to each other and if so what would you expect beyond fiscal 'twenty two.
Yes, the price cost relationship to normalize in other words would you expect cash flow to go up and then EBITDA would go down just the opposite of what's happening this year.
I wouldn't necessarily say EBIT would go down, but I mean, if the cost remains flat after going up because of the price increases that would stay flat and we would see an increase in cash flow because working capital would not be would not change and as a matter of fact, we look forward to go down just through managing it better through our systems, but.
If you look at it.
We have a number of elements the operational improvements, obviously going to increase cash flow.
Good to hear.
I'd say, that's somewhere north of approaching $55 million, we've got $28 million or so is a detriment from disposing of them.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Thank you.
Yes.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Got it.
Okay.
No.
Please don't take it from where we were at $4 30 down to <unk> at the midpoint.
Got it thanks, so much Larry.
Again that is star one if you'd like to ask a question. The next question is from Gabe <unk> with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open.
Good morning, everyone and congratulations on the good start to the year.
Thank you Ed Tom Thanks.
I'm curious if you've heard anything.
Obviously specific.
But anything in the external world.
We should be mindful of in terms of competitive landscape.
AIP side.
Whether it's locally regionally.
I haven't we don't mean to dwell on our competitors instead, we focus on serving our customers with all the people.
But I haven't got nothing to report there.
Okay.
I think you guys are investing call it $60 million to $70 million of return capital.
To the business.
I think again most of it's on the IDC in plastic side is there anything that we should be again mindful of that.
And the external world.
Whether it's supply chain delays or anything like that.
That could push contribution from some of these into fiscal 'twenty three or just.
Hi chain disruptions in general.
Paul will continue.
Yes.
We continue a very.
Disciplined allocation strategy on Capex and so our strategy is to grow in our resin based products in our new ERP system.
In terms of challenges the biggest challenge the market faces still labor.
Primarily in the U S.
Our customers report strong order book strong demands.
But they can't fulfill that because they lack certain raw materials and they have a labor challenges as well.
Gabe we haven't specifically had anything happened yet to delay.
The execution of our Capex projects, but obviously, we monitor it.
With the disruptions going on relative to Russia.
Ukraine, obviously that could impact things, but to date nothing.
Thank you.
Thanks Scott.
The next question is from Justin Bergner with Gabelli funds. Your line is open.
Good morning, and congratulations.
Hey.
Thank you and.
Larry Good morning, Matt.
So my first question relates to the price cost dynamic in paper packaging I just wanted to make sure I heard you correctly that you have a 65 million better.
Outlook than you did a quarter ago in that segment and if so does that mean that.
Yeah.
Are you on global industrial packaging has come down or are there other offsets to that 65 million benefit in paper packaging.
Yes.
We do expect that the currently in our current guidance, we do expect that the Gi piece second half of the year will be.
Less favorable.
Just because of the dynamics of play through on.
On the.
Cost.
Elements, but it's not significant the bigger the bigger drop on ours was actually a divestiture loss of the Fps EBITDA that was in our original guidance Justin So.
Walk through that a little bit on the cash flow side with with Adam's question, but on the EPS side. The Fps divestiture is about 28 a share.
Drag from our original guidance, so theres really no degradation of.
Against our original guidance from on the Gis side its exactly what we had forecasted originally.
Okay, and then the 28 cents loss from the divestiture of reduction from the divestiture that would be net of minority interest and the benefit of debt pay down or.
Just a nice synergy.
Yes.
The benefit of the debt pay down is reflected in our change in interest expense is not netted in there, but it is yes.
For the other elements you're correct.
Thing I did want to supplement is.
On the price.
Cost benefit in the paper business.
That is offset by some incrementally higher transport and utility cost, which is why when I walked through that differential.
Cash impact was less than you would have gotten just from the price and cost elements of OCC.
Okay, and then just one nuance question I saw that the basic share count for class a shares was 26 million. This quarter. It was $26 6 million shares for Q, but I didn't think I saw any repurchases. So is that correct and if so what caused that delta.
No. It is incorrect, we had actually caught that that'll be fixed in our Q. It was an unfortunate error that was missed on.
And the production of the earnings release, However, the earnings per share is correct.
Okay. Thank you.
Yeah.
The next question is from Adam Josephson with Keybanc. Your line is open.
Thanks, everyone for taking my follow ups, just Larry just one one more on the paper price got it.
Thinking that the price cost benefit will be something in the neighborhood of 150.
So does that sound off the mark, particularly off the Mark to you.
Yes.
Yes.
That's probably hi, Adam on I mean for the part of the year that Youre bailed imaging.
Yeah. Okay. So I was just more than 100, but less than 150 is that yes, yes.
Again like the supplemental comment I made we've got a lot of offset going in for just higher transport costs utilities and those elements.
Got it okay.
One last one on the.
<unk> question about the dilution of the sale.
What what is the net dilution.
Relative to your previous guidance EPS.
<unk> 28.
Okay. So that is a net number just to be clear yes.
Everything.
So the in other words the reduction in interest expense has absolutely nothing to do with the divestitures, what you're saying.
We just incorporated at the end of the interest expense. Thanks. So let me walk through just how you guys are having so we gave $6 15, and I'm just going down the midpoint. We've got ranges, obviously, but 28 down on the Fps divestiture, 75% up on the PPS pricing and 16 stance on.
OCC.
A positive you got interest expense benefit of 24 and taxes down 42.
Got it I appreciate that Larry and just on the tax rate. It was much lower than what you were thinking last year last couple of years for that matter was much higher than the midpoint of guidance in fiscal <unk> can you just talk about what your updated expectations are for the tax rate for the year end.
And also about why the tax rate is so volatile it seems that it defies even your own predictions about where it's going I'm just trying to understand that dynamic a little better.
Yes, we always have stated because you had been 18, it'll it'll jump all over the place quarter to quarter, but the guide for the year was 22% to 25 unadjusted basis, It's still 22% to 25. We had said initially we thought it would be on the lower end of that range. We now think it will be on the higher end of that range.
The driving factors in the <unk>.
First quarter volatility is when you're doing trying to do dividend distributions and so like we were getting cash out of Russia doing those kind of things you end up with withholding taxes. Those withholding taxes are not income base. There based on the amount of you distribute out but they impact your rate and so that was a discrete item in the first quarter and a year ago, we had acts.
We closed out some U S. IRS examines mother exams and had some discrete items that were beneficial.
But the bigger driver of the rate change is that the predominance of our well.
Much larger portion of our income is in U S. Now than what we had originally forecast and that.
Despite the reductions in corporate rates in the <unk>.
Trump administration, its still higher than many countries in the world and so.
Thats pushing our radar.
Yeah, No I appreciate that and just one last one about the full year range. So obviously, you said it's wider than normal.
The nine plants in Russia, there is just extraordinary volatility globally.
<unk>.
What led you to increase the range as much as you did in light of all that uncertainty versus just keeping it where it was.
Okay.
Well because when we when we go through our process each quarter. We go obviously, we update our forecast and we do an upside downside, where we identify all of the areas. We believe we have risk in areas we have opportunity.
To be Frank I had lowered that range I mean, even from where we think it could be to just put some conservativism given the uncertainty in the world. So.
We're very confident of delivering on this.
But we did build in.
Extra buffer for sure because of that.
And as noted a big deal is lowered it a dime at this center for just uncertainty.
And we had already built in upside downside basically wiping out everything in Russia between the ruble and just operations.
So we feel comfortable with what we put out.
Got it thanks, so much Larry.
Again, Please press star one if you'd like to ask a question. The next question is from Justin Bergner with Gabelli funds. Your line is open.
Thanks for the follow ups.
I'm not sure I, followed the earnings bridge correctly.
Relative to your prior guide there was a 42 cent headwind from the tax rate.
You get that from just being in the low end of the range, 20%, 25% range, depending on the high end of the range.
Correct.
Okay.
And you know you've got increased income.
So it's not just the rate is the fact, the incomes way up.
Okay.
But that's relative to your prior guide that's not relative to last year, because thats gradually here, yes, Thats correct. Okay, and then any material tax leakage from the flexible products sale or should we expect net proceeds at very close to that 123.
Yes.
No no no significant.
Tax leakage and we'll have some but not significant okay. Thank you.
Okay.
Yeah.
We have no further questions at this time I'll turn the call over to Matt Eichmann for any closing remarks.
Thanks, very much Chris and thanks, very much to the callers today, who took part in our earnings call. We hope you have a safe enjoyable rest of your week take care.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating you may now disconnect.