Q1 2022 CBRE Group Inc Earnings Call
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Greetings and welcome to the CBRE is Q1 2022 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance. During the conference. Please press star zero on your telephone keypad.
As a reminder, this conference is being recorded I would now like to turn this conference over to your host Ms. Christina Burman Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and strategic finance. Thank you Ma'am you may begin your presentation.
Good morning, everyone and welcome to Cbre's first quarter 2022 earnings conference call earlier today, we issued a press release announcing our financial results, which is posted on the Investor Relations page of our website CBRE Dot com along with a presentation slide deck that you can use to follow along.
With our prepared remarks, as well as an excel file that contains additional supplemental materials.
Before we kick off today's call I'll remind you that this presentation contains forward looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Examples of these statements include our expectations regarding cbre's future growth prospects.
Our 2022 qualitative outlook operation Marketshare capital deployment strategy and share repurchases financial performance, including that leverage profitability expenses and effective tax rates the business environment and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions the integration and performance.
Most of acquisitions and other transactions.
Any other statements regarding matters that are not historical fact, we urge you to consider these factors and remind you that we undertake no obligation to update the information contained on this call to reflect subsequent events or circumstances you.
You should be aware that these statements should be considered estimates only and certain factors may affect us in the future and could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward looking statements for a full discussion of the risks and other factors that may impact. These forward looking statements. Please refer to this morning's earnings release.
And our most recent annual and quarterly reports filed on Form 10-K, and Form 10-Q, respectively. We have provided reconciliations of consolidated adjusted EBITDA.
Core EPS core EBITDA net revenue and certain other non-GAAP financial measures included in our remarks to the most directly comparable GAAP measures together with explanations of these measures in the appendix of the presentation slide deck.
Our agenda for this morning's call will be as follows Bob's Olympic our president and CEO will briefly comment on first quarter highlights and the role that our four dimension diversification strategy and balance sheet are playing in driving our growth then I'm a tier martino, our chief financial and investment officer will discuss the quarter in <unk>.
Detail and our updated qualitative 2022 outlook, then we'll open up the call for questions.
We just know that we are now referring to core adjusted EPS core EPS for simplicity purposes. Additionally, we are also reporting core EBITDA, which life core EPS is equivalent to adjusted EBITDA excludes the fair value adjustments related to noncore investments now please turn to slide six as I turn the call.
Over to Bob.
Thank you Kristen and good morning, everyone.
The year has started out strong for CBRE with excellent momentum across all three business segments globally net revenue increased more than 30% and GAAP EPS and core EPS were up 48% and 72% respectively in the first quarter.
We saw strong property sales growth in virtually every corner of the world.
Office and retail continued to rebound nicely from COVID-19 suppressed levels and multifamily and industrial maintained strong momentum.
The continued rebound in leasing velocity is also encouraging notably office leasing revenue surpassed Q1 2019 levels in both EMEA and Asia Pacific.
Office activity in the U S improved significantly.
But remain below pre pandemic levels.
Despite the lag U S office overall global leasing revenue is 20% above.
Above the Q1 2019 peak.
We achieved these strong revenue gains while keeping expense growth in check which is a top priority for us.
Our core EBITDA margin on net revenue improved 280 basis points over the prior year quarter, notably discretionary expenses were 27% below first quarter 2019 levels.
While net revenue was up 42% versus the same period.
We continue to execute our strategy to diversify our business, both organically and through investment broadly across the four dimensions, we've talked about regularly over.
Over the last couple of years asset types lines of business clients and geographies.
Our performance for the quarter drives home how effectively this strategy is working.
We saw continued gains from the purposeful investments, we've been making in parts of our business that are benefiting from enduring growth trends.
Examples include the industrial and multifamily asset classes, which we invest in and serve broaden our local facilities management and our project management lines of business and.
And several of our geographies, particularly north Asia.
Where we continue to see strong growth.
Notably Turner and Townsend continues to perform ahead of our expectations, both financially and operationally and.
And we are enthusiastic about the added dimensions, they bring to our global project management, offering, particularly in infrastructure and natural resources and sustainability services.
We generate significant cash that is being strategically deployed into growth areas of our business.
While we are also returning cash to shareholders.
And an elevated clip year to date share repurchases have totaled $627 million.
I'll close with a word about Ukraine, which I know is top of mind for many of you.
In early March we decided to exit most of our business in Russia.
While keeping some employees in that country to manage facilities for our multinational clients.
Insistent with our contractual obligations, we are inspired by the Ukrainian People's Brave resistance to Russia's unprovoked aggression.
With that I'll turn the call over to Emma who will discuss the quarter and the outlook.
Thanks, Bob please.
Please turn to slide eight.
CBRE began the year with our strongest ever financial performance for our first quarter consolidated results were supported by double digit revenue and segment operating profit growth in each of our three operating segments.
As Bob noted GAAP EPS was up 48% to $1 16, while core EPS rose 72% to $1.39.
GAAP EPS was <unk> 23 cents below core EPS, mostly due to the mark to market valuation of our noncore investments, particularly our altice tower stake.
The change in all pistons valuation during the quarter largely reversed the noncash gain we realized in Q4, which we also excluded from our core earnings.
Corporate overhead grew approximately $23 million from Q1, 2021, but fell $40 million compared with Q4 'twenty 'twenty. One we continue to expect overall corporate overhead declined slightly from 2021 levels for the full year.
Our results were ahead of our own expectations across revenue margins and earnings.
Excited about the strong start to the year and the momentum we're seeing across our business.
Please turn to slide nine for a deeper look at our advisory segment.
Advisory services net revenue reached their first quarter record of $2 $2 billion up 32% from last year.
Within capital markets, we continue to see strong sales activity with total sales revenue up 58% versus last year.
Property sales growth was broad based across all major geographies with Pacific North Asia, and the U S. In particular standouts.
We have yet to see a material impact from rising rates on property sales.
Billy office industrial retail and multifamily sales all surpassed the prior first quarter peak level.
While office remains our largest asset class in his back to prior peak level.
It comprises about 20% of property sales in the quarter versus nearly one third in Q1 2019, reflecting the sizable gains we've made across the other property types.
Our mortgage origination revenue, excluding all MSR gains rose over 22% compared to Q1, 2020 one.
Industrial and multifamily originations continued to lead activity across property type.
Lending markets remained highly liquid during most of the quarter with private lenders continuing to increase volumes lower government agency originations reflected robust private lending activity for multifamily assets, which continued to create attractive terms for borrowers and reduced demand for agency that.
Our own MSR gains declined $15 million from the first quarter of last year, reflecting the shift from agency to private lenders.
Leasing revenue eclipsed prior peak first quarter levels and all global region.
Mobile revenue was up over 48% in Q1 led by Continental Europe and the U S.
Continuing recent trends industrial revenue rose strongly while the omicron variant posts continued challenges we were encouraged to see global office leasing improved significantly from last year's coverts depressed level and fell modestly short of the Q1 peak set in 2019.
We expect that recovery for office leasing will continue to improve from the COVID-19 depressed levels of 2021 as leases rollover and occupiers upgrade their office space.
70% of our survey to occupier clients are planning a hybrid approach for their office return and over 90% of them are planning to either expand or contract or office footprint over the next three years.
This is a clear positive for our office advisory business and any changes in space requirements drive not only commission revenue, but often also workplace advisory and project management fees.
Despite heightened macro risks from persistent inflation rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions U S sales and lease activity has remained strong since the end of Q1 with revenue up significantly over the prior year during April .
Advisory services segment operating profit started the year stronger than expected at 40% to $466 million with our net margin increasing to 29% from 19, 7% in Q1 2021.
Prudent operating expense management, largely offset higher cost of sales due to deals being more heavily weighted to our highest producing brokers and the lower MSR gains.
Turning to Gws on slide 10, net revenue grew over $400 million or 27%.
Excluding Turner and Townsend net revenue rose nearly 9% overall with project management up 13% and facilities management up 7%.
Our new business pipeline points to facilities management revenue accelerating significantly as the year progresses as clients gained more visibility about their space utilization and that's their need for outsourcing services.
Our pipeline revenue is at a record level with a diversified mix of financial services defense automotive retail and logistics prospects.
Overall, our Gws segment operating profit grew 33% or over 6% organically margins on net revenue grew to 10, 9% in Q1 benefiting from the Turner and Townsend acquisition.
Absent this acquisition net margins declined very slightly from prior year in line with our expectations, we expect a slight margin pressure to subside toward the end of the year.
Yeah.
Turning to slide 11, our Rei segment posted another outstanding quarter revenue increased 34% to $284 million and segment operating profit grew to $167 million up $104 million versus Q1 of last year, which was modestly better than our expectations at the beginning of the year.
Our development business continued to post excellent results benefiting from a strong pipeline and compressed cap rates.
Development contributed nearly $107 million of segment operating profit in the first quarter up from $10 million in the prior year, we saw multiple large co investment asset sales in the first quarter, notably in industrial and multifamily.
Looking ahead development operating profit is expected to be weighted to the first half of the year. However, any movement of development asset sales between periods, which is common in this business could impact the quarterly cadence of our results.
Our development pipeline rose to more than $10 billion and in process portfolio reached almost $20 billion. Both record levels. This gives us visibility into strong long term development operating profit growth.
Historically, we've converted about 1% to 2% of our in process portfolio into operating profit annually.
Our development business is also strategically well placed with industrial and multifamily comprising over three quarters of the combined pipeline and in process portfolio.
Fee development and build to suits make up more than 50% of in process activity.
Our investment management business also turned in a strong performance in Q1, while operating profit declined by $9 million versus the same period last year the.
The decline was due to a one time $24 million accounting methodology, driven gain we booked in last year's Q1 and called out at the time.
Absent this gain operating profit improved about 33% supported by co investment returns, which benefited from appreciating asset values.
Investment management AUM reached a new record of nearly $147 billion with logistics and infrastructure climbing by 9% and 7% respectively over the quarter.
AUM growth was driven by a $4 billion of net capital inflows as well as higher property valuation only partially offset by unfavorable FX rates.
We've also continued to benefit from the partnership between our investment management and development businesses, which has supported AUM growth for investment management and pipeline growth for our development business.
Turning to slide 12, CBRE repurchased more than $390 million of shares in the first quarter a record amount as Bob mentioned year to date through may 3rd we've repurchased nearly 7 million shares for $627 million.
We anticipate maintaining a significant pace of share repurchases for the balance of the year absent substantial and compelling M&A opportunities.
We also remain committed to maintaining a durable balance sheet net leverage was just under <unk>. One turns at the end of Q1, well below the midpoint of our zero to two times target range.
This is despite the share repurchases seasonally higher use of cash for employee incentive compensation and the seasonally light revenue and earnings typical of our first quarter.
Absent any substantial M&A opportunities, we anticipate remaining below one turn at the end of 2022, even allowing for an elevated pace of share repurchases.
Turning to slide 13, as we look ahead, we have the same expectation for achieving mid to high teens consolidated core earnings growth for the full year that we provided at the end of February .
Our business today continues to have strong momentum our base of contractual work and project management facilities management and investment management is a large and growing rapidly and lease and sales transaction activities through April remains robust.
Commercial real estate markets also are healthy with office retail and multifamily fundamentals, improving and industrial fundamentals remaining strong in core markets.
Materially offsetting these continued positive trends the broader economic backdrop has softened and interest rates have risen since we provided our earnings outlook in late February .
We have taken this some of these dynamics into consideration in reaffirming our full year expectation.
Specifically.
She had an economic downturn emerge we expect the more resilient and secondly favorite parts of our business.
I'll help offset any potential weakening in other parts of our business.
In particular, we have noted that office leasing is benefiting from strong tailwind that we expect to sustain for some period of time.
Additionally, we have identified cost measures, we can implement quickly you should market conditions warrant.
On the other hand, if the macro environment remains supportive for the rest of the year there could be upside to our current expectation.
Additionally, our outlook does not include any benefit from incremental M&A activity or share repurchases, we expected to be active capital allocators for the rest of the year and we'd be positioned to move aggressively in a weaker economic environment.
We look forward to updating you when we report second quarter results in July with that operator. Please open the line for questions.
At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session.
I would like to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone keypad, a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue you might start to cheer them move your question from the queue for participants using speaker equipment, and maybe necessary for you to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys, one moment, while we pull for questions.
<unk>.
Our first question comes from the line of Shandy Luther with Goldman Sachs. You May proceed with your question.
Hi, Good morning, Thank you for taking my question.
Bob and Mark could you talk about what are you seeing on M&A front I mean, you've obviously talked about heightened macro volatility, but you know in a tougher environment do you think there is potential for more M&A opportunities and then could you give us some insight into how the pipeline's looking right now and how do you think.
About M&A considerations in multiples in this environment.
Charlie I'm going to comment and then I'm going to ask him how to do the same I want to remind everybody that in addition to being our CFO Emma oversees our M&A activity. So she has got great insight into that.
But I want to start with the notion that M&A is a core competency of our company and we expect our leaders around the world to identify M&A opportunities that help us add to the capability. We can offer to our clients. We're also increasingly focused on driving capital and resources into areas.
<unk> of our business with secular benefit and we're really well positioned to do that because we have such a strong base of operations across the four dimensions, we talk about product type service type client type and geography.
Prices have been high recently.
Which means that we have been a little bit careful about what we might queue up for acquisition. We think if the environment slows a bit gets a little tougher because of inflation or a recession that might be ahead of us that our opportunity to invest we will grow.
But we're looking across our business for two types of acquisitions and I'm being redundant here, but I want to say it again acquisitions that add to our capability to serve our clients and acquisitions.
Drive diversification across our business and we have a good pipeline of both types of candidates I also want to say that we're looking at things that we haven't looked at traditionally.
That we think are really good fit for our business one of the best Examples I can give you recently of course is Turner and Townsend, which was very unique acquisition for us and the Earth.
Early returns on it or about as good as I've ever seen us have on a big acquisition, so with that I'm going to ask you to add to that Emma Yeah. I would just add that our pipeline is really strong for M&A. So we're building it for the rest of this year and 2023 and beyond so that we can really be ready when we believe valuations.
Will come down and we can be aggressive in taking advantage of that opportunity and then I will also add that.
I said this in my remarks, but it's important to reiterate that our outlook does not include any of this M&A this year or incremental buybacks. So all of that should be upside to our outlook. This year and that stands for 2023 and beyond our long term outlook does not include material capital allocation.
Got it and then switching gears to quite a few of those two asset classes that have been doing really well multifamily and industrial I mean, we've heard from a lot of public Reits over the course of last week and a half and you know most of them talked about seeing a pause in transaction activity sighting large leveraged buyers pulling out.
And then we've also you know more recently heard from Amazon talking about excess capacity are in bed housing industrial that housing. So what are you seeing on that front I know, it's been very strong for you, but do you think.
Activity in these asset classes slower hate I mean do you see these as early signs what do you think rates are doing here.
Yeah.
Well that's it that's a multilayered question John D. There is a lot of focus on cap rates.
There's a lot of focus on the cost of debt, but when you look at the trading of assets and the value of assets. You also have to look at fundamentals and you also have to look at the amount of capital that's out there pursuing those assets fundamentals are exceptionally strong I think historically strong.
And the multifamily asset class.
Vacancy is as low as it's been in 20 years.
The amount of pent up demand relative to the amount of vacancy as also as low as it's been in 20 years, there's upward pressure on.
Upward pressure on rents and Theres more renters out there in the market than there is new product coming online so that bodes well for the value of those assets. The other thing that I think gets missed a little bit by people and it's sometimes cited as a problem for our sector, which it is a challenge and that is what's going on.
With the cost of assets the cost of assets is growing up construction cost is going up fundamentals have allowed rental rates to make up for that and the value of assets, but when you think about how investors think about product one of the things. They always consider as replacement cost anybody that comes into the market today and buys assets can.
Have a decent level of confidence that replacement cost is going to be above what they pay for those assets. So that's a positive dynamic.
And it's not as extreme with the industrial asset class as it is with the multifamily asset class, but when you go into core markets around the U S. The big Gateway markets in the most important secondary markets and when you look at modern.
Large industrial assets, which is where we play primarily the fundamentals there are extremely strong as well. So I was I was meeting with one of the most active players in the New York, New Jersey industrial market yesterday and their comment was it sold out right. There is not available space up there.
And the Amazon News is important there had been the biggest.
The biggest leisure and across the U S. The last couple of years I will tell you that Amazon their percentage of the market slowed down in the last 12 months by over half what it was in 2020 and the fundamentals Havent really changed there is strong strong demand for any space that exists out there. So.
We're relatively bullish about what's going to happen with values for both multifamily.
And industrial assets at the same time, we're very aware that if there is a recession.
If interest rates do tick up if.
If that becomes more expensive, which it will there could be a period of time when the buyers and sellers go to the sideline and thats baked into our thoughts about where we're headed for this year and next year.
Thanks, Bob for all that color.
Our next question comes from the line of.
Steve Sochua with Evercore ISI you May proceed with your question.
Yes, Thanks, good morning, Bob and Emma.
Just kind of wanted to circle back to some of the comments that you both made.
You basically had a great first quarter.
Keeping guidance unchanged at this point you said April was off to a very good start or April was a good start to the quarter.
And I guess I'm, just trying to sort of weave all that into your comment.
Potential upside I guess the way I'm reading it is theyre, probably is upside to numbers, but just the uncertainty on the macro was kind of keeping you from raising guidance at this point is that really the simple message.
So, yes, I think that captures it well, but to put some more color on that and to be clear. If we werent seeing pressures from the macro environment, we would be increasing outlook and so we've spent a lot of time sensitizing. What we think is going to happen through the second half of the year and there are a number of factors that are giving us confidence that we will that will.
To deliver the outlook.
That we expect it to in February like you said in Q1 has been really strong our pipelines for Q2 and our transactions business are very strong, but we are anticipating if interest rates rise as expected expected there will be slowdown in parts of our business in the second half of the year, which will be offset by our SEC really favorite parts of our business.
And again.
I want to remind everyone that capital allocation is not included in our outlook. So that will be upside and then I also want to mention that in my remarks, I talked about the cost levers that we have in place. So if things turned in a different direction than we're expecting them and there is more pressure we have cost levers that we know we can pull and we've proven that we can pull through 2000 22000.
In 2021, so that gives us a tremendous amount of confidence in 2022, and then we also look towards 2023, because we know everyone's really thinking about what's going to happen if interest rates continue to rise.
And we ran some sensitivities around what we expect next year and everything that we set about 2022 really holds for 2023. We have we are more contractual we have more recurring revenue than we've ever had before we've invested in growing and are and secondly favorite areas and we believe those parts of our business are really going to offset.
Areas, where well see pressure like capital markets.
Essentially and.
And in development.
So we feel.
Very positively about where we're going to go in 2022, and 2023 and think there is upside to our to what we're talking about.
Yeah.
Great and then I guess, just trying to think about the capital allocation. So it sounds like acquisitions. At this point are I don't want to put words in your mouth, maybe on hold but youre certainly willing to deploy a lot more capital into share buybacks can you just maybe kind of walk us through the math.
How youre thinking about that it was nice to see the acceleration in Q1 and into the early part of Q2, but it sounds like buybacks could be materially higher than they originally thought.
So the capital allocation strategy that we've talked about over the past few quarters remains unchanged. We are prioritizing accretive strategic M&A when we see opportunities arrive arise and we're very focused on building that pipeline and executing on those opportunities, but valuations are high and so it's really important that were paid.
And we want to make sure that we're delivering returns that are well above the returns we can deliver through buybacks.
But we always said, we would balance that with with buyback when we don't see a huge opportunity for transformational M&A.
Within a year.
And so that's what we've done we've seen a value opportunity our price has been very attractive for as long as that continues.
We will continue to buy back shares through the rest of the year.
Great. Thanks, that's it for me.
Our next question comes from the line of Anthony <unk> with J P. Morgan you May proceed with your question.
Yes. Thank you.
And then I guess, just one more thing on the guidance that I had on my mind last quarter, you had given some pretty specific brackets around advisory and gws and already I did anything change within those like some of your expectations for release in sales revenue and so forth.
So we're making a shift as you can see in this quarter to really focus on our consolidated performance because we are a more mature diversified business, where we have multiple levers and one single factor.
We don't believe should impact our long term or even near term growth trajectory. So we're not I'm not going to comment on specific parts of our business but.
As both Bob and I have talked about where we potentially see a slowdown in the second half of the year primarily in capital markets.
And then I do want to comment on development.
I mentioned this in my remarks, but and we mentioned it last quarter, but simply because of timing. The majority of our development profits are going to hit in the first half of this year.
It has it doesn't have anything to do with the external environment is simply when these projects are expected to be completed.
And if you look at those profits on an annual basis.
I think that's the best way to look at the sustainability and the stability of those profit, we said that about 1% to 2% of our in process portfolio typically convert to S. O P. In any given 12 months period.
Right now we're slightly ahead of that but if you extrapolate that to 2023 and expect that profit.
Profit to move more in the 1% to 2% range that can give you an idea of.
The sustainability is the ability of our development pipeline.
Okay. Thanks for that and then with regards to EBITDA margins can you talk about any puts or takes on that side. So if you think about the last year.
Business kind of accelerated and you had a lot of costs that had been taken out during the pandemic and still a lot of deals being done over zoom and stuff, but now it seems like maybe the business is slowing and people are getting back to face to face or is there are there any parts of the business where there's.
Margin pressure or deals less profitable or any other places, where you're making up ground.
So the only place where we're seeing cost come back which we.
Got it and talked about in Q4 within our Gws business and that's just a reversion to pre pre pandemic levels. During the pandemic, we were servicing facilities and buildings, while there weren't <unk> people werent going to facilities and office buildings and so the cost to service those buildings declined in an unusual way.
So we're going back we're reverting to normal within our gws business and we're seeing some margin pressure this quarter, we expect that to slightly.
To mediate throughout this year, so margins within our legacy Gws business.
It slightly tick up through the remainder of the year, but in the rest of our business, we're actually seeing with an advisor who youre seeing stronger margins than we expected.
And and.
And so that's evidence of our ability to control our cost all of the cost measures we put in place.
Bob mentioned that our discretionary cost this quarter are down pretty meaningfully.
And our hiring has slowed somewhat.
Because of the challenge labor market. So we feel we feel really good about our margins.
Okay.
And then just last question you had you had made a comment about some of the lending moving away from the GSE. He's on the multifamily side I thought they raised their caps for 2022 so there's a little bit surprised by that can you just talk about what's happening there how big a part of your overall mortgage business.
Is the.
The GSE piece in it.
What happens you think to that either the origination piece and or servicing as rates move up.
Okay.
Tony We think well first of all that's a very big part of GSE business is a very big part of our lending business. It's moved more to private lending in the last <unk>.
In the first quarter of this year.
And we're watching to see what's going to play out for the rest of the year and next year as it relates to mortgage servicing which is which has become a big.
And very recurring very contractual business for us. We continue we expect that to continue to grow partly from the business that we stores, but are also partly from business, we take on from others.
Okay.
With the with the GSE part there.
Why do you think people are going to private lenders when they have a I guess the ability to lend even more this year.
Theres two factors one prime.
That capital has been very aggressive with their lending terms. So the GSE is simply being our competed and then the and then the GSA is pulled back if you think about Q1 of last year.
Were they needed to provide liquidity.
And this quarter because of the markets have been flooded with liquidity. They didn't have that same that same need.
Okay got it thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Patrick O'shaughnessy with Raymond James You May proceed with your question.
Hey, good morning, it's David Farnum on for Patrick.
Wanted to ask a question on your EMEA business.
Coal market conditions, holding up in that region as compared to the other geographies.
Market conditions are really good in EMEA right now I was just over there.
Last week.
I was over there for Turner and Townsend Board meeting, which by the way that company is doing extremely well and what we found out was across the UK and across Europe .
Leasing is strong and coming back the industrial asset classes holding up well there is large amounts of capital to be invested in commercial and multifamily assets multifamily is a smaller business over there than it is over here I would say the fundamentals across Europe right now are quite strong and our business is performing our.
Dessert business, there is performing better than it's ever performed in.
In the history of our company so.
We're feeling really good about that business now.
Great. Thanks.
And then maybe switching gears to the Turner and Townsend business for a moment how would you have been working with that business for a few months now what sort of integration has taken place between Turner and Townsend.
And the rest of the organization.
What's important to remember that we bought 60% of the business.
40% of the business remains with the.
The partners the legacy partners Turner and Townsend.
Govern that company through our board of directors three directors from CBRE, three directors from Turner and Townsend.
And the integration has largely been a revenue integration, we have not tried to seek cost synergies out of that deal.
We have not tried to alter the way they go to market.
The infrastructure that supports that business is there infrastructure the way the integration is progressing as we're working with them to bring them into our client relationships as an added capability.
We have some other resources that we're providing to them to help them grow their business, but it is not a traditional full on integration the best comp for Turner and Townsend and our company would be the way we operate Trammell Crow company, although we own 100% of it roughly 40% of the economics go to the developers.
CRO companies kept its brand they've operated independently they have a tremendous culture.
And they've grown tremendously and we've modeled Turner and Townsend after that they liked that model they wanted that model.
We are six months or so into the relationship as I said in my opening remarks, both financially and operationally, it's proceeding better than we had thought it would proceed and we were quite bullish about the investment when we made it there is a bunch of stuff that Turner and Townsend, we'd like to do and we would like to do together with them.
That we haven't been able to get to yet simply.
They're running at capacity and as they add capacity that capacity is fully utilized. So there is a good deal of upside associated with what might happen with Turner and Townsend next year and beyond.
<unk> kind of commented on that when she gave you that little snapshot of how we think 2023 might play out. We think there is some upside to Turner and Townsend because of the secular really benefited areas that they operate in.
Excellent thanks for the color.
Our next question comes from the line of Jade Rahmani with K P. W. You May proceed with your question.
Thank you very much when you look at the size and scale and footprint of the company overall, where do you see the greatest.
Growth opportunities you mentioned investing in new areas I was wondering if.
Infrastructure and potentially.
Energy and renewables.
<unk> to you as very strong growth potential or would it be within the company's existing capabilities and footprint in core real estate services areas such as for example.
Mortgage origination, where perhaps the ratio of property sales to mortgage.
It could be a little bit reduced more mortgages less property sales just as a ratio.
Well, there's a lot there in that question Jay Let me, let me try to take the pieces off as you asked them. So first of all with regard to energy slash sustainability, we're embedding that in many of our services across the company and it's it's not necessarily a separate profit.
<unk>, but the capability in our facilities management and property management and project management and development businesses.
Bring sustainability to those product lines helps us grow those businesses and then Turner and Townsend directly does things with regard to sustainability that are important.
Important product lines for them infrastructure youre going to see growth in infrastructure through 200 towns and Youre going to see growth in infrastructure through our investment management business and they've grown.
AUM there very nicely.
But when you look across our business and again I want to I want to beat this drum because it's so important we're really broadly diversified across product type service type client type and line of business. So where are we going to see growth across those four dimensions. The work we do for big technology companies around the world is going to continue to.
Grow significantly and it's likely not going to be all that subjected to.
To economic downturns compared to some other things out there project management.
With all that's going on with sustainability with all this going on with Reorienting offices to the future where there'll be used we think that there's going to be sustainable growth. There. Ironically when you look at what's happened to our business over the last two or three years during the Covid area era everybody knows.
We faced.
Secular headwinds and the office building part of our business, which is a big part of our business. We now believe for at least the next two or three years, we're going to have real secular tailwind with office as occupiers go back to renewing or changing the leases. They have we've got a very good insight into what that pipeline.
Looks like as occupiers reconfigure their space et cetera, we think we're going to actually benefit at the same time, we might see some downward pressure from what's going on with interest rates and cap rates and the economy as a whole we actually think office is going to come back in and provide some tailwind for us we're very very encouraged about that.
And then when you kind of get deeper into our business and look at those four dimensions I'll give you. An example of something that we haven't talked a lot about we've mentioned it kind of in passing but if you look at our advisory business over the last few years I often get the question what part of the world should that business grow the most and will it should grow the most and part of the world where they are.
Economy is growing the most and that continues to be Asia. If you went back five or six years, our advisory business.
In North Asia was probably no more than 1% to 2% of our business is likely to be 6% to 7% of our advisory business. This year not that much of it in China because of what's going on in China, But Korea is really growing for US Japan is really growing for us Hong Kong's really growing for us.
We have a nice business in Taiwan, and then we think eventually China is going to kick in when things sort out now so we've got pockets of opportunity for growth across those four dimensions and Thats why we went to them. It talks about what's going to go on the rest of this year.
Thinks about what might happen next year, even if things get a little tough and the economy. Even if we go into a mild recession, we're pretty encouraged about where we sit out there and then of course in all of those areas, we have capital to drive into acquisitions, if things slow down and.
Easier to buy some things than it is today.
Thank you in terms of tone from investors institutional investors looking to deploy capital into real estate are you detecting any changes in terms of dry powder does that at all come under pressure from lower equity markets because the allocations are set relative to their overall asset allocation.
Patient strategy, so lower equity markets have been a boon to real estate allocations, but now it could be a headwind how would you answer those two questions.
And we do watch the denominator effect and we were wondering if that's going to have an impact next year, depending on what happens with equities you know if those go down and then real estate holds up and becomes a bigger part of the portfolio is that that may put a little downward pressure on some institutions and.
Buying commercial assets, but I will tell you what we've seen around the world around the World is there is more capital for real estate. Then there is real estate for capital right now and that's the equity capital and debt capital and people really like the fundamentals.
And they believe in this asset class more and more for the long term there could be an interruption later this year there could be an interruption next year, but the long term trajectory is more institutional capital is being aimed at commercial real estate assets and institutional quality multifamily assets and the base of assets.
The World is growing so we think that this is a really nice long term trend for our company in this sector we compete in.
Okay.
Thank you and then just lastly on the GSE multifamily you know.
One of the issues has been that they underwrite on a trailing 12 months cash flow basis, and as I'm sure you well know rents in multifamily have been skyrocketing.
And so debt funds and other more flexible lenders, they're looking for they're looking at forward NOI, putting the GSE is at a relative.
Disadvantaged do you see that gap alleviating considering that their caps are 11% higher than last year.
So we do see that alleviating somewhat as a.
As valuations increase and the GSA has come up to speed to where the private market.
Or one of the factors that's impacting the GSE is is that they do have new leadership in place so as they go through that transition.
And as the leadership comes into.
Gain some.
Moving further into their term, we expect a pick up.
Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Sheldon with William Blair. You May proceed with your question.
Hey, Thanks, good morning.
Nice results here, just just one for me and it's on the longer term trend towards real estate ownership, I guess shifting more towards institutions versus more or less okay.
Ownership.
Do you think that trend has continued as we look back over the last few years and if so what has that meant in terms of both outsourcing and adoption in gws in endo and the velocity of properties changing hands give.
And normally shorter holding periods and could that trend may capital markets activity become.
Slightly more recline overtime.
There's a few things about that trend that are really important to our business. One is that institutions historically have tended to trade a bit more.
Then then.
Non institutional owners. So that's that's good that adds to the velocity associated with our our brokerage businesses.
Both brokerage of debt and brokerage of.
The assets themselves.
Secondly, whats happening is these institutions that are controlling the assets are growing theyre getting bigger and bigger and they tend to want to work with fewer and fewer.
Service providers.
We're a beneficiary of that by the way were a big beneficiary of that with occupiers and we're a big beneficiary of that with investors and one of the things we've done with our families.
Our family with our company is working credibly hard to be connected across lines of business and geographies. So that we can offer a product to these big institutions that invest in real estate in these big occupiers that use real estate, so that they feel like they can comfortably use us instead of a group of companies that is.
Been a really powerful trend for us we expect it to consider we expect it to continue and so when you look at what Youre, describing Stephen for the institutional ownership of assets. We think is going to be a positive secular driver in the growth of CBRE and we think and same thing is going to happen with the <unk>.
Payers.
And it is happening.
Great. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of today's question and answer session I would like to turn this call back over to Mr. Bob <unk> for closing remarks.
Thanks, everyone for joining us today, and we look forward to talking to you in three months when we report our second quarter earnings.
This concludes today's conference you may disconnect. Your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and enjoy the rest of your day.
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