Q1 2023 Semtech Corp Earnings Call

Greetings and welcome to the <unk> Corporation conference call to discuss the first quarter fiscal year 2023 financial results speakers for today's call will be Mohan might have sworn centex, President and Chief Executive Officer, and the Mecca Shokku, Some text executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Please note. This conference is being recorded at this time all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation I will now turn the call over to <unk> Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and that got you quote.

Thank you operator.

The press release and also now on our unaudited results was issued after the market closed.

And is available on our website.

<unk> Dot com.

Today's call will include forward looking statements that include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results anticipated in these statements.

For a more detailed discussion of these risks and uncertainties. Please review the Safe Harbor statement included in today's press release.

And the other risk factors section of our most recent periodic reports filed with respect to receive and the exchange Commission.

As a reminder comments made on today's call are current as of today.

<unk> undertakes no obligation to update the information from this call should plateau circumstances change.

During this call all references to financial results in my prepared remarks on Moorhouse prepared remarks will refer to non-GAAP financial measures are less.

Although <unk> not yet.

A discussion of why the management team considers such non-GAAP financial measures useful along with detailed reconciliations of such non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in today's.

Press release.

In Q1 fiscal 'twenty through the company delivered net revenue of 202 points $1 million sequentially.

A sequential increase of 6%.

An increase of 19% year over year and was once again above the midpoint of our guidance.

These numbers include $2 9 million to a loss of revenue from our high reliability business that we divested at the start of Q2.

We've continued to demonstrate the leverage in our model by growing earnings at approximately twice the rate of revenue growth.

non-GAAP earnings per share grew 14% sequentially up 51% a year over year.

The strength of the secular drivers behind our growth engines of Lora.

That's right edge point X five G system protection platforms.

A contributor to the strong net revenue performance, despite the challenges presented by Covid or supplier.

Our cost trends.

In Q1 shipments into Asia, North America, and Europe represented 7% to 6%, so at 10% and 11% respectively.

While this represented the ship to address is all of our distributors and customers. We estimate that approximately a 33% of our shipments are consumed in China, 29% in the Americas, 19% in Europe and the balance over the rest of the award.

Total direct sales represented approximately 11% of net revenue and distribution represented approximately 89%.

Our distributor as a.

<unk> represented another quarterly record and the business remains balanced with approximately 40%, 45% down 25% of your total P. O S coming from the infrastructure industrial and high end consumer.

End markets respectively.

In Q1 net revenues from the high end consumer market increased 2% sequentially and decreased 11% over the prior year and represented 24% of total net revenues.

Approximately 12% of high end consumer net revenues was attributable to mobile devices and approximately 12% was attributed attributable to all of our customer systems.

Net revenue from the industrial.

End market increased 4% sequentially and 42% over the prior year and represented 39% of total.

Net revenues.

Finally, the infrastructure.

End market increased 11% sequentially and 24% over the prior year represented 37% of total net revenues.

Q1 bookings decreased 23% sequentially and <unk> bookings.

Accounted for approximately 1% of our Q1 shipments.

Q1, gross margin increased 30 basis points sequentially to 64, 8%.

Quarterly record driven by a higher mix of our growth engines.

For Q2, we expect.

Our gross margins respond to another record, reflecting the benefit of the continued strength of our growth engines.

In fiscal 'twenty, three we expect our growth engine.

Our gross margins to trend higher 100 to 200 basis points from a favorable mix of our growth platforms.

In Q1 operating expense increased slightly to $79 million driven by higher staffing costs.

For Q2, we expect our operating expense to increase.

Slightly due to higher new product expenses.

In Q1 of fiscal 'twenty three.

Breaking profit grew 11% sequentially approximately two times the rate of net revenue growth, reflecting the higher gross margin and a modest increase in op retinas bass.

Sequentially operating margin has funded approximately 130 basis points to 29, 8%.

And has funded approximately 550 basis points from the same quarter last year, representing solid progress towards our 32% to 36% long term.

That model.

We are seeing stronger operating leverage expected from the success of our growth platforms.

In Q1 with cash flow from operation was $50 million up 54, or 54% from the same quarter last year.

This is the result of the record of operating profit.

Management of working capital.

Free cash flow increased 56% year over year.

Our cash flow generation in fiscal 'twenty three is expected to be strong despite our strategic decision to maintain higher levels of inventory because of strong demand and supply cost threats.

In Q1, we repurchased approximately $50 million or one 2% of our outstanding stock, we have approximately $209 million remaining in our share repurchase authorization.

We expect to continue to use our cash to opportunistically repurchase our shares.

Make strategic investments and pay down debt.

Q1 accounts receivable decreased 7% sequentially and days of sales declined four days to 31 days.

In Q1, our net inventory in absolute dollar terms decreased 6% sequentially and days of inventory decreased six days.

Sequentially to 140 days.

Primarily reflecting the value of the inventory re classified as available for sale as a result of the divestiture of our high reliability discrete business.

We expect our net inventory to remain above our target range of 90 to 100 days to support the higher demand and the types of supply.

Supply chain environment.

In summary, we are very pleased to deliver another record financial performance in Q1, despite the supply chain constraints and continued pandemic head rates.

We are pleased to see our years of investment in technology platforms that enable us smarter sustainable planet drive record sales record gross margin and record earnings per share.

Cash flow generation remains.

Throng the financial model is delivering a strong leverage.

Fiscal year 'twenty three we believe the long term secular nature of our growth engines position us nicely for another record financial.

Performance in fiscal year 'twenty.

In fiscal year 'twenty three.

100 call over to Mohan.

Thank you Mike good afternoon, everyone.

I will now discuss our Q1 fiscal year 'twenty three performance by product group.

And provide our outlook for Q2 of fiscal year 'twenty three.

At Q1 of fiscal year 'twenty, three net revenues of $202 $1 million represented a 6% sequential increase and a 19% year on year growth and represented another exciting centric record we posted record non-GAAP gross margins of 64, 8% and record non-GAAP earnings per diluted share.

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These numbers include $2 $9 million of revenue from our high reliability discrete business that we divested at the beginning of Q2.

Our signal integrity product group grew 19% annually and achieved a fourth sequential quarterly revenue record and represented 40% of total revenues as.

As expected growth was driven by the data center and PON markets.

In Q1, our Hyperscale data center business was strong led by growth from our Tri edge Pam four short reach platform design.

Design ins of triage in 100 gig 200 gig and 400 gig Pam for optical modules and active optical cables continued to gain momentum globally.

In Q1 revenue from triage increased over 100% over the prior quarter and we continue to believe our Hyperscale data center Tri edge revenues will triple in FY 'twenty three as more customers move to full production and we increase our market share of the DSP solutions and the 200 gig and 400.

Pam four segments.

Our customers are also giving us positive feedback on our long reach triage samples.

I'll get to that 200 gig <unk> for optical modules.

This will be another growth driver for us over the next few years. These.

These new longer reach devices approximately double our Sam in the Hyperscale data center market.

We remain confident in the triage as ultra low power low cost and low latency together with fiber edge as high performance will enable us to continue to grow our Hyperscale data center business over the next several years.

Our PON business grew approximately 14% sequentially and achieved.

Seventh consecutive record revenue quarter, driven by continued strength from our 10 gig and two five gig PON platforms.

Global demand for higher access bandwidth remained strong with new deployments and new use cases emerging.

In addition to the China market, which continues to lead PON demand.

U S Indian and European service providers have also announced upon deployments, which we believe bodes very well for future demand growth.

<unk> is the leading PMD supplier to the global bond market.

Providing the most comprehensive PON PMD portfolio.

We are now sampling to customers our latest innovative 25 gig burst mode Trans impedance amplifier parts of that <unk> platform for next generation PON networks.

Our PON business continues to show significant strength and we are confident in this business will grow nicely over the next several years as PON bandwidth increase.

In Q1 of FY 'twenty three revenue from our wireless base station business showed solid growth on the strength of <unk> and <unk> base station deployments.

We continue to win new designs for both clarridge and triage in <unk> base station front haul optical modules.

We announced production release of the industry's first Tri edge Pam four platform for five G front haul optical optical modules, which.

Which has already achieved many design ins.

We expect qualifications to be completed and initial revenues to begin to grow later this year.

We are also now sampling the industry's first tri edge platform with integrated ml driver for <unk> mid haul life applications.

We expect our <unk> wireless base station business to continue to grow in FY 'twenty three.

And accelerate over the next few years few years as global <unk> system deployments accelerate driven by new <unk> tender is expected in the second half of fiscal year 'twenty three.

The underlying secular demand trends, we witnessed in FY 'twenty, two driven by the quest for higher bandwidth at the lowest power across all infrastructure segments is expected to continue into FY 'twenty three.

In Q2, we expect our signal integrity product group revenues to increase and deliver another quarterly revenue record.

Okay.

Moving on to our protection product group.

In Q1 of fiscal year 'twenty three net revenue from our from our protection product group increased 23% over the same period last year.

And represented 27% of total revenues.

Our consumer protection business was approximately flat as weaker China.

Our phone demand was offset by stronger Korean smartphone demand and broad consumer demand.

The strategy to diversify our protection business into a broader range of segments is proving very successful.

Our broad based protection business increased nicely in Q1.

Driven by growth from the automotive communications and industrial segments.

And now represents approximately 40% of our total protection business.

As more system designers are using chips with advanced process geometries, we are seeing demand for <unk> high performance protection products, increasing across all market segments.

Particular bright spots are the automotive and infrastructure markets due to the growth of USB C Ethernet and HDMI interfaces.

These growth areas continue to also have a positive impact on our gross margins.

In Q2 of fiscal year 'twenty, three we expect our protection revenues to increase.

Turning to our wireless and sensing product group.

In Q1 of fiscal year 'twenty, three revenues from our wireless and sensing product group increased 15% over the prior year.

And represented 33% of our total revenues.

In Q1, our Lora enabled business achieved another new record as the adoption of Lora in low power Iot applications across the globe continues to accelerate.

We are seeing many new applications and use cases for lora.

Some of the new innovative applications that are driving sustainability and enabling a smarter planet include ICT internationals use of Lora for environmental applications by integrating lora sensors into their water quality monitoring systems. They can now extract real time data.

To improve crop health and yield while decreasing costs.

Smart patent in Australia.

Integrated Lora into smart tags for the livestock industry to analyze capital behavioral data and sold real world livestock management issues.

This is another example of how Lora is enabling the future of smart farming.

Utility launched a new Lora based self powered energy monitoring solution.

Which allows energy data to communicate directly from an electrical panel to the cloud.

This is another example of how the adoption of Lora is enabling the smart utility segment to deliver sustainable efficient energy usage.

And communicate to integrate announced a new innovative smart plant cloud based solution for smart irrigation systems.

This system monitors temperature humidity and other important metrics real time to maintain the health of our plant, resulting in improved crop yields water efficiency and sustainability.

These are just a few examples of exciting new Lora cases.

Being deployed.

We are inspired by the growth of Lora land based networks, and Lora, nor land based sensors and a plethora of new Lora based use cases emerging.

Our Lora metrics also continued to make very positive progress.

The number of lower wind network operators grew from 165 at the end of Q4 to a 170 by the end of Q1.

New Lora Wang operators are launching networks in markets, like Portugal, Germany and Vietnam.

At the same time private networks are also experiencing explosive growth.

This new landscape for Lora Wan networks showed great growth and diversity of networks from public networks.

To community based networks to satellite satellite based networks and to private networks as well as hybrid network approaches, which is a key competitive differentiator for Lora Wang.

We expect approximately 180 public Lora network operators by the end of FY 'twenty three.

The number of Lora gateways deployed increased to $4 2 million gateways from $3 2 million at the end of fiscal year 'twenty two.

We expect the number of lower gateways deployed to increase to over $5 million by the end of FY 'twenty three.

We are delighted with the large increase in gateways deployed globally.

As this infrastructure is critical to enable the broad range of emerging use cases.

Picasso Gateway deployments continue to increase nicely.

Driven by Smart home and smart campus segments.

As Amazon sidewalk gateway deployments increased 35% versus Q4 of fiscal year 'twenty two.

In addition, the helium People's network is growing very fast.

And was recognized in made by fast company as a world changing idea in 2022.

Built on Lora technology.

Both sidewalk and helium networks should drive an acceleration in end device deployments over the next several years.

In addition, our macro gateway deployments increased 6% over Q4 of FY 'twenty two.

Given by Smart utility smart logistics, and smart city initiatives globally.

The cumulative number of lower end nodes deployed increased to $256 million at the end of Q1 from $240 million at the end of FY 'twenty two.

We expect this number to exceed 300 million cumulative end nodes by the end of FY 'twenty three.

With continued network expansion globally, we expect end node deployments to accelerate rapidly over the next three to five years.

The Lora opportunity pipeline, which includes both opportunities and leads ended Q1 at just under $1 billion.

We anticipate that on average 40% to 50% of the opportunities currently in the pipeline will convert to real deployments over a 24 month timeline.

Our opportunity pipeline is growing rapidly with use cases, primarily around sustainability and smarter planet initiatives in areas like smart utilities, smart logistics asset tracking industrial Iot Smart home and smart cities, we're innovative solution providers are using lora.

To monitor measure and manage resources more efficiently.

At the end of fiscal year 'twenty, three we expect our total opportunity pipeline to exceed $1 3 billion.

In Q1, we also announced the extension of our Lora edge device to cloud geolocation platform.

To enable the use of satellite based networks.

The addition of S band connectivity to the platform enables direct satellite connected Iot applications and supply chain management and logistics with seamless low power geolocation on a global scale.

Our Lora edge platform now enables Lora Lan satellite and G NSS connectivity for outdoor geolocation.

And Lora, Wang and Wi Fi connectivity for indoor indoor geolocation.

In Q1 revenue from our proximity sensing platforms remained flat due to seasonal softness and pandemic related challenges in China.

We are expecting increased SAR regulations in Asia later, this year to drive proximity sensor growth in the <unk> smartphone market over the next several years.

Additionally, we are seeing traction in the consumer wearable market as customers utilize proximity sensors for gesture recognition and other applications aimed at enhancing user experience.

For Q2 of fiscal year 'twenty, three we expect net revenues from our wireless and sensing product group to be approximately flat.

Has continued positive nor a momentum is offset by a weaker consumer proximity sensing business.

In Q1, we announced nine new products across our portfolio and achieved 3200, new design wins.

Looking forward to the second quarter of fiscal year 'twenty three and following a very strong Q1, we are estimating revenue for Q2 between $203 million and $213 million.

To attain the midpoint of our guidance range or approximately $208 million.

We need it.

Crow tons at the beginning of Q2.

We expect our Q2 non-GAAP earnings to be between 80 and 90 per diluted share.

Note that our guidance no longer includes any high reliability discrete revenues.

I will now hand, the call back to the operator and macro and I are happy to answer any of your questions operator.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone keypad and a confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the queue. You May press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue.

For participants.

Using speaker equipment and may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys.

Please while we poll for questions.

Our first question comes from Tory.

As van Berg with Stifel Nicolaus. Please proceed.

Yes, hi, good afternoon. This is Jeremy calling for Tori.

Hum.

First of all congratulations on the record quarter.

Question on the protection business, it's nice to see that the broad base growing so nicely.

When when do you expect to see or do you expect to see a crossover at some points at 50% plus and which of those you know.

Three sub segments are driving that that growth. Thank you.

Yes.

It's a good question, it's something we're striving to achieve but consumer protection design wins continued to be very positive as well so.

Obviously, the automotive is probably the strongest at the moment I would say communications and then the broader industrial Iot within our protection business are all doing well they do take longer the design wins.

To revenues take longer in the <unk>.

<unk> market.

So I think the percentages will be volatile, but its trending that direction. So.

Probably over the next three years I would expect a 50%.

To be kind of realized for each segment.

Great.

I guess.

Maybe turning to the triage product.

Your I guess your Pam four analyte solution.

Can you give us that.

Are there any partners that you can provide.

Yeah.

I guess, which regions or areas that you expect to see driving the most growth in this business.

We're getting our momentum across all regions I would say.

Obviously, good moment very good momentum in China very good momentum in North America were the two.

Biggest regions for data.

Data centers are today is where most of the Sam is.

I think with our long reach products that are now being.

Being sampled and getting good feedback, we will get even more kind of balanced across regions, there, but yeah, it's pretty broad at the moment.

And then my language.

Can you give us.

The range.

Yes, the shorter reach products saw kind of less than 100 meters in the longer reach up kind of in the two kilometers to 10 kilometer range.

Great. Thank you very much.

Our next question comes from Trust and Gara with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed.

Hi, good afternoon.

Hello, a question on your protection business, obviously, very strong driven by automotive and industrial.

When they conclude that the consumer piece of that which is weakening.

It is the sustainability.

And could you elaborate today to date on the longer term drivers that you see for your protection business.

Yes, So let me start with the consumer.

Tristan I think its I wouldnt say its weakening I would say, it's more that's really driven by macro weakness. We're still we're still doing very well in the consumer space, we get a lot of good design wins in that space. So as customers continue to use leading edge.

<unk>, we expect that business to continue to grow.

Some of the macro growth grows as well of course.

Brought protect.

Protection business is really doing well and I think partly that's because we're seeing more advanced lithography is being used in those segments. Now if you look inside the vehicle, we've got a lot of different things going on.

And a vehicle from displays to Ethernet ports in communications to antennas too.

All USB ports for example, so lot more electronics going into the vehicle.

And the same can be said of some of the other segments like industrial and Iot and some of those segments are using advanced lithography processes, and Thats, where centex protection.

Really is quite strong so I think given that this is a new focus area for us over the last couple of years and we've got a lot more products coming out in this area.

Expectation is that this business is going to continue to grow. So obviously higher gross margin is not as high volumes consumer, but not as volatile also and I think a lot stickier so should be a very solid business.

For many many years I would think.

Great and then.

Sorry to ask the question.

How should I look at the impact of the Lockdown in China that you think you can recover in the second half.

The calendar year versus.

Just weak demand in China, where there is good.

What's your outlook on the on the one when that is going to recover.

Yes, I think theres different elements interest and so first of all bookings have been weaker definitely because of in.

China has been a little bit in shutdown mode, I would say contract manufacturing in some of the supply chain issues have also been a challenge I think I expect both of those areas to kind of recover.

As the Lockdowns.

Kind of.

China goes back out of Lockdown and to more regular mode. Then there are some dynamics related to shipments out of China into Ukraine, and Russia. So there is some demand softness there from.

In the smartphone area I think that's something that may take.

Bit longer to come back.

But my sense is yes, China typically once they've gone through.

Little period of not growing.

We expect to see heavy investment in infrastructure.

So.

That's what I'm expecting in the second half.

To catch up there.

Growth across the year.

But yet to be seen but that's what we're expecting.

Great. Thank you very much.

Our next question comes from the line of Craig Ellis with B Riley Securities. Please proceed.

Yes, thanks for taking the question and I'll start with just a question for America.

Gross margins are tracking a little bit better and the outlook than I expected I'll be consistent with what I think you had called for.

<unk> with a 100 to 200 basis point gain this year. The question is is there any benefit to gross margins from that divestiture or are we just seeing the underlying mix dynamics that you've been talking about.

Just give us another like up sequentially.

Yes definitely.

There is a slight benefit to gross margin from the divestiture, but given that that business is pretty small.

Probably about $14 million to $15 million a year type of business. The overall impact if not that huge.

The key driver behind our gross margin expansion continues to remain the growth engines that we've talked about so as we've continued to see success with Lora.

We continue to see our tri edge getting traction out there.

I'm constantly tend to increase as we continue to see the benefits of our diversification efforts and protection and industrial automotive.

<unk>.

<unk> or Paul or platform.

Platform that is actually got that gross margin you saw around the corporate average I think as we've continued to see a higher mix of all of all of this as part of our revenues and our gross margins should continue to see some slight especially.

That's great and then the follow up question is for you Mohan.

Based on my tally up to your comments on the Lora metrics. It looks like everything is tracking to the metrics you provided a quarter ago. So one I just wanted to clarify that too.

It does seem like across every one of them theres good progress. So a is.

Is it fair to say that despite what is a very tumultuous.

<unk> macro environment.

<unk> to have strong engagement with customers.

Deploying lora and with more uptake. Thank you.

Yes, Craig I think that is a.

Affect conclusion.

Our metrics are all on track we believe.

Good momentum very comfortable with.

The commentary that I made on the expansion on the infrastructure so lots of gateways.

I would say.

The funnel is as very positive.

<unk> at the moment as well.

We have to make sure the and this is where the work is really ensuring that that funnel converts to revenue.

We say typically 24 months.

And my expectation is if if things get we go into a kind of a recessionary environment that some of that timeline might push out.

But the reality is when you look at the use cases a lot of these use cases are about.

Real smarter planet initiatives, there about energy management resource management.

Asset management and things that are going to help.

As the kind of smarter planet position saves are driven across the globe. So I don't expect any any type of slowdown at all on Lora is a it's just a fantastic complementary technology full smarter planet initiatives. So we're keeping a very close watch on.

And the different use cases across the different regions.

And we have a pipeline that's.

Pretty I think we just need to work with our customers to make sure there's not any major bottlenecks.

Some of the bottlenecks could be sensors, sometimes it's it's software but.

Working with those customers in the.

Ecosystem to resolve those.

It really will result, I think we announced kind of hitting our dashboard metrics and then that drives the future growth so pretty optimistic about it yes.

Got it thanks guys.

Okay.

Our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Rick Schafer with Oppenheimer. Please proceed.

Yes, Thanks, excuse me in congrats on a nice quarter guys.

No Scott.

Ex the divestiture.

Maybe a follow up question on Lora.

I mean by my math.

We're close to $50 million this past quarter.

Better than 50% kind of year over year, I think again by my math seems to be either sort of in line with last year's growth rate or even accelerating.

I don't know if you.

Basically it feels like the 40% growth target has covered this year I was just curious if you guys could talk about where backlog is today and how far it extends out into next year, just trying to get a sense of your visibility into into next year kind of run rate.

Thanks, Paul.

Yes, Rick So next year is a little bit far out I would say.

Yeah Q1, but.

I think for the rest of that most of this year, we're in pretty good shape, obviously, we don't need any tons for Q2.

We're keeping a close watch on consumption I think thats really the key.

<unk>.

Obviously Q1 was another record we are on track.

Very comfortable with our 40% CAGR.

The guide that we've given to you guys for the next few years and we're on track I think two two.

To achieve that goal this year.

The key for US is really as I mentioned looking at the funnel and making sure the funnel is converting and some of those.

Large opportunities in the funnel, which are fairly broad and more balanced in nature from geographical region standpoint, they really they really.

Become realized and I think if they do then we're very comfortable with.

Ongoing plans for next year for this year I think we're in pretty good shape I don't see any real issues I think obviously a lot depends on the macro but so far I think we have pretty good visibility for most of this fiscal year.

Okay. Thanks for that and then as my follow up I'm. Just curious on you know everybody's talking about investing prepaying and future capacity.

You guys have done such a great job keeping costs down expenses grow and I think on average about half the top line. So.

I was just curious if you can level set of sort of what's your plans are there is there anything kind of coming up that would cause opex to sort of accelerate or grow faster than that sort of targets, which we've seen thanks.

Hi, yes, thank you <unk>.

Note that <unk> done a good job of managing Opex and that we've always done a good job of that.

Now as I look ahead, I don't really see it.

Out of the ordinary or continue to make the investments in new products and some of the exciting growth areas that we have will continue to make those investments.

Inc.

Given the environment these days.

Our employees being able to change jobs and things like that and we are making sure that we are taking good care of our employees.

Let me assure that they are appropriately.

<unk> said it but there is nothing really out there that I would say that it's going to drive a significant.

The increase in our operating expenses beyond the levels that we have.

Publicly articulated.

Okay, great. Thanks for the color.

Our next question comes from the line of Trevor Jim <unk> with Needham <unk> Company. Please proceed.

Yeah, Hey, guys. This is Trevor on for Quinn and thanks for taking my question since we're hearing concerns about consumer weakness potentially carrying into other segments. We're wondering if you could provide more color on the current data center demand like has there been any changes that could be concerning and perhaps.

How is your visibility into the second half.

So Trevor you started talking about consumer and then your question asked about data Center data Center is.

Quite strong we don't see any real issues there.

Tumor is weak.

Smartphones are definitely.

We can I would say PC and computing is little bit weaker related to consumer some of that is I think.

People going back into the office and away from home and working in the office now some of that as I alluded to is <unk>.

Related to the work and some of the areas there, which are not being serviced from a demand standpoint, I think so and the demand is obviously not going to be that in the middle of a war. So you've got some of those pockets coming out I would say.

It's very regional dependent I mean, China is clearly going through some issues at the moment so.

This thing could bounce back in the second half.

It depends on the broader macro environment, and inflation and things like that which could drive.

Consume us weakness in the second half, but in fact.

It becomes under control then my sense is also that.

The semi industry is to some extent still a little bit in this.

Supply constrained.

<unk>, so we could see.

That.

Driving.

Into the into the rest of this year for the rest of this year, we could see strong demand in other words, but at the moment, yet consumer is a little bit weak.

That's all I had thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of harsh Kumar with Piper Sandler. Please proceed.

Hey, guys strong congratulation you know very good very good results and guide Mohan I was wanting a little bit more color on Lora I was curious now that Youll gateway business is humming.

With Amazon I was curious if you'd be able to provide us a rough split.

Of revenues between nodes worsens gateways or give us some color. If you don't want to give us the exact percentages.

So first of all we're not going to break out the details.

Harsh on the part of the reason is it's very different so macro gateways, we sell devices for $15 <unk> gateway can be.

$5.

In Amazon's case, its less than that so the unit volume doesn't necessarily correlate in terms of when you try to kind of figure out how many gateways are et cetera, what I will tell you is that.

Across the board the gateways are expanding very nicely. So I mentioned on the.

Preferred remarks, there that.

Amazon sidewalk gateways grew 35% macros macro gateways grew 6%.

And.

Helium gateways also grew.

Over 40%. So we've got good growth in gateway deployments as you know the gateway suggest infrastructure right. So the key is now getting census connected to those gateways and thats really the key for future growth. So as we look forward.

I don't think the.

Gateways deployed and the number of gateways are really that relevant because we've got a lot of capacity out there. So now the question is okay. So what's what's going to drive which use cases are going to drive the.

Sure.

Sensor connectivity to those gateways and that's that's really what we're focused on now.

Okay I appreciate it and then I had maybe I wanted to farmer Mac and that I'm not sure. If I heard this correctly, but if I. If I didn't please correct me, but I thought you said the bookings were down.

23 odd percent and wanted to and I was curious was that just a function of turns or is there something going on that maybe you could provide us some color on and then my second part of the question was slightly separate the buyback you guys stepped up pretty big obviously to help the stock out and you talked about 200 and something million remaining on your buyback.

I guess I'd be curious about your view.

You have the opinion that you're stocking very cheap here that you will be very aggressive at these levels and we should expect a similar kind of.

Pickup in buybacks from from some tech desk level, just color again looking for color.

Sure sure harsh I think you heard it.

You'll recall that our bookings were down 23% in the quarter, but we started off the quarter with bookings have been very strong and sales kind of dropped off at around that time.

China started to shut down because of Covid right. So I think.

A lot of the decreases.

Covid driven out of China. The expectation is that as things start to open up we're pretty excited I think today or yesterday, we heard that.

Shanghai is beginning to open back up on some parts of Beijing that are also looking to open up so the expectation is that our pace will start to.

Get better in that area and let me add one other comment on the bookings bookings.

Bookings have been extraordinarily strong for almost lost let's say the last year. So.

Remember we are we've got a lot of visibility at the moment backlog is very strong. So I don't know that bookings is a good metric at this point in time, you probably want to start looking at consumption is a better metric right.

And.

That's a good point Mohan.

Just want to remind you that we reported.

Our Q1 hour.

It was actually a record for the company. So the consumption is still doing well moving on to the buyback.

What we have.

Said in the past that we're going to buy back shares to just keep pace with that.

Dilution from grants to employees.

But with regards to valuation.

Harsha are probably a little bit off to you guys on investors too.

You've got all of the valuation and all we know is that.

We have a business that is actually built on very strong fundamentals right now as Mohan has said in the past.

This is the best that this company is positioned in terms of from a strategic point of view. We continue to believe that we are just at the beginning of a multi year double digit growth cycles here. So with regards to what we award for what the valuation is well leave it up to you guys to make that call, but I will just continue to run their business.

And deliver the numbers.

And Mike I appreciate the color guys and strong execution I very much appreciate it. Thank you.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question, Hey, just one question.

What harsh was asking about.

I'm trying to reconcile the difference between a 23% decrease in bookings.

And what is essentially 5% sequential revenue growth adjusting for the sale of the high rail business.

And so if I presume you're living in a little bit off the backlog and so my question is will this slowdown in bookings. However, long it will continue manifest itself in the second half of the fiscal year. Thank you.

Gary the answer to that is.

It depends it probably it will start to.

If it continues to be extremely weak then it will start to have an impact in Q4, I would say, but more likely next year.

Remember we have.

We've had very strong bookings.

Most of our peers in the industry.

Because of supply constraints and so on.

Most of the companies including us.

Fully booked in them, we have a lot of backlog, obviously, we don't need any tons. This quarter next quarter is in pretty good shape I think so.

But Q4, and then going into next year and how next year looks like I think obviously, we need to keep some pace on the bookings, but it was unrealistic to actually to have the bookings at the site at the rates. It was on it we were on such a tremendous bookings rate previously that I think that was unrealistic. So I think the drop off is.

Now, bringing some normalization back to that.

And as I mentioned I think the key thing is to watch consumption.

Obviously, if customers are using the materials, which we're looking at very closely then.

I think everything will be fine so thats the key metric to look at.

Thanks Mohan.

Yeah.

Our next question comes from the line of Scott <unk> with Roth Capital. Please proceed.

Good afternoon, Thanks for taking my questions and I appreciate all the color on Lora and some of the other businesses, particularly the reinforcement of the 40% CAGR.

Maybe just to follow up on a couple of the earlier questions related to lower Mohan China had been a big portion of the mix in the past and you guys had been diversifying away from that I'm wondering if you could update us in terms of.

Low risk China contribution how that factors into the mix and then.

Looking out to the remainder of this year, you're starting to see the ecosystem develop more and more around Amazon sidewalk.

Helium I'm wondering how you're thinking about that in terms of the contribution to the model whats your kind of factoring in how aggressive that is in terms of the build out of the ecosystem for this current fiscal year.

Yeah.

Scott most of the.

<unk> smart home related opportunities in our funnel, we don't have a tremendous amount of revenue yet from that segment and I would say thats true of the smart home and Smart campus segment.

So when you look at the revenues today most of the revenues are coming from.

The use.

<unk> that have been in deployment over the last few years, so smart utilities.

Smart city, and industrial Iot Smart AG those type of kind of more traditional.

Industrial use cases, and a lot of that is China of course, as we mentioned before 50% of our business and Lora comes from China.

But the funnel the opportunity funnel.

It really starts to get interesting as you look at the details a lot of that is smart home and smart asset tracking logistics and driven out of both Europe and North America. So that's that's what we need to.

To convert and make sure that.

They realized revenue.

We are quite comfortable now that the infrastructure is going in place. That's that's kind of the first major hurdle, but that's that seems to be overcome now.

Obviously with gateways going out there so we've got pretty good.

Alignment there now it's a question of getting the other aspects of the.

Use case resolved and that sensors and software and just the different.

Economics around each one so which we're very confident about and a lot of its tied to smarter planet and <unk>.

Sustainability, so I think it's going to happen. It's just a question of timing right.

Very helpful. Thanks for the color and if I could switching gears over to the data center front of some competitors have talked about.

Ecosystem and supply chain, becoming a little bit more challenged.

With China locked down so I was wondering if you could update us on your thoughts if youre seeing any impact as it relates to supply chain issues into the data center end markets and.

And also how we should be thinking about the growth rate in terms of your business for datacenter you get a lot of new products that are coming to market early but getting a lot of traction is this something that should be growing 20% plus.

Over the next couple of years and I had one last question.

Yes, so on data center growth definitely double digit growth.

Scott I think hi.

Teens, probably kind of what we think when we think of it.

It depend on the uptick of Pam four and Spa.

Specifically the long reach products, we're doing very well the short reach and thats going to grow at much faster rate, but the longer reach products, we have to get design wins, there, but we think we will and so so this is going to be a good growth driver for us on the supply constraints I think it's not so much supply constraint. So much it is that contract manufacturers.

Being able to build.

The quantities that they.

What.

The rates that they were building at and so they've reduced their quantities now I think with the Mecca mentioned, we're starting to hear that things are getting better and.

Going to get back to some degree of normalcy, we will start to see that ramp up again.

That problem should go away.

We're hoping obviously by by the end of this quarter, we shouldnt see any of that but.

A lot depends on the Covid situation in China, but I think at the moment, that's what we are anticipating gotcha.

Got you and lastly, if I could.

In recent history, you guys have not been acquisitive, you've been executing on the internal portfolio and doing a great job of getting the right track and organic growth. How are you starting to think about if at all inorganic opportunities and how they kind of fit into your overall portfolio and future. Thanks. So much.

Yes, it's a good question Scott we've always been acquisitive. We've also if you look at our businesses they all come from acquisitions.

For a period of time certainly over the last.

Five years, I would say with the instability in the.

Joe geopolitical environment.

And with.

Some of the macro events and then the pandemic and things like that.

We haven't really put a lot of priority on that I think as things start to stabilize.

We'll be.

Looking at our balance sheet, a little bit more and trying to figure out if there's a strategic.

Deals that we can do to to to help us even further so it's always been part of our toolkit I think I would say that.

We haven't been so much in the last five years, but I think going forward Thats still still part of our toolkit.

Great. Thanks, so much nice quarter.

Our next.

Comes from the line of Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna. Please proceed.

Thanks for the question guys.

As you guys know.

<unk> been into helium and mining helium for a couple of years now.

And unfortunately, the price of helium like a lot of Cryptos has has gone down pretty considerably and with that the.

At least aftermarket price of a lot of gateways have also gone down and it's our opinion that gateway demand is also going to go down so.

We're trying to figure out what that headwind might be.

And some of the math.

Mohan maybe you gave.

$5 for Pico 15 for a macro I guess the first thing is.

Our our helium hotspots really kind of on the Pico side of things.

And then total helium deployments are.

Almost 900000 call. It another 100000 in the channels so call. It a million are we talking about.

<unk> total healing.

Sort of content of $5 million for that whole network or would you consider at large larger than that so if this were to slow I guess my point is there is this kind of de Minimis for your businesses. This is really only a $5 million.

Headwind or or is it something larger.

I think Chris the first thing is that look it varies.

We don't price it by.

Every single Gateway.

Gateways the same so I would say, it's a little bit more than that is certainly one of the $5 million, but I think the way to think about this is that the community based networks have to values one as to the crypto side of it but the other is that they create a community based network and those have real use cases that are very valuable.

For.

Tracking of assets for tracking pads full.

Decarbonization I mean, there is much much more value than just the crypto side of things the crypto value doesn't pay us anything from a company.

Standpoint, we don't really look at that that much.

If you are generating crypto why are you all.

Using it for something that is used to someone or some enterprise then.

The benefit to you.

As you are mining, but I think thats the secondary way to look at it so we expect.

Over the next three to five years.

Gateways will still continue to grow probably not at the rate. It has been growing but as I pointed out that one of the things. We look at is okay. How much capacity is out is out there now to support sensor growth because what it does for US is really drive the opportunity now for every gateway that's out there to drive additional 30.

$40 50, sensus connected to them right.

Yes for sure.

Also I wanted to you had mentioned two I kind of might considered them free options or opportunities.

Then I wanted to follow up on the first was.

You guys have Pam four analog products and CVR products I guess my first question is have you considered or is there a technological opportunity to.

Enter the act of electrical cable market.

And then my second question is around proximity sensing you mentioned the Asian regulations over there.

Would love to know what you think.

In terms of maybe dollars or percentage growth.

How you could really accelerate that market.

Yes.

Let me touch on that one first.

Chris I think that market is definitely going to grow.

The challenge is.

It's really driven by regulations win when you have regulations of smartphone manufacturers are forced to include a soft sensor into their phones.

So for sure in North America or in Europe , most of Europe .

They have to have them in there, but for many other countries in Asia, like China and India.

As regulations don't exist they may be kind of recommended but theyre not mandatory so what we're looking for is those regulations to to drive.

Mandate essentially you've got to have some way to reduce the radio power in your phones. When you are close to the human body and Thats what were looking for and if that happens and that was that was expected to happen last year. It got pushed out.

With the pandemic and now with everything that's going on.

Our hope is that in the second half it happens it may go into next year, but eventually it's going to and then that's going to drive very positive growth I think.

Again, probably in the high teens double digit growth.

And then your question.

Active alike.

The cable market I don't know if I don't know, if it's transferable or not but would love.

Yes, the answer is yes.

Great.

Okay.

Thank you.

This concludes our question and answer session I would like to turn the call back to Mohan My sworn for any closing remarks.

In closing we were very pleased with our record Q1 results.

Despite the challenging pandemic and supply chain environment, our multi sourcing initiatives and our investments in inventory infrastructure and tools continue to enable us to support our best in class business operations, our innovative growth engines, driving our smarter planet and initiatives are all doing very well, we expect FY 'twenty three.

To deliver another record year for <unk> with that we appreciate your continued support of <unk> and look forward to updating you all next quarter. Thank you.

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation you may now disconnect.

Q1 2023 Semtech Corp Earnings Call

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Semtech

Earnings

Q1 2023 Semtech Corp Earnings Call

SMTC

Wednesday, June 1st, 2022 at 9:00 PM

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