Q2 2022 Lithia Motors Inc Earnings Call
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Speaker 2: Good morning and welcome to the Lithia and Driveway 2nd Quarter 2022 Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Amit Marwaha, Director of Investor Relations. Please begin.
Speaker 2: Thank you. Presenting today are Brian DeBore, President and CEO , Tina Miller, Senior Vice President and CFO . Tina Miller, Senior Vice President and CFO .
Speaker 2: Chuck Leads, Vice President of Dry Wave Finance.
Speaker 2: Chris Horseshoe
Speaker 2: Executive Vice President and COO is traveling in Canada with the FAFT team.
Speaker 2: Today's discussion may include statements about future events, financial projections and expectations about the company's products, markets and growth.
Speaker 2: Such statements are forward looking in subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ from the statements made.
Speaker 2: We disclose those risks and uncertainties. We deem to be material in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We urge you to carefully consider these disclosures and not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. We urge you to consider these disclosures and not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
Speaker 2: We undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements which are made as of the date of this release.
Speaker 2: Our results discussed today include references to non- GAAP financial measures.
Speaker 2: Please refer to the text of today's press release for reconciliation to comparable GAAP measures .
Speaker 2: We have also posted an updated investor presentation to our website, investors.lythiadriveway.com. Highlighting our second quarter results. Would that, I would like to turn the call over to Brian DeBur, President and CEO . Thanks, Amit, and welcome to the team. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today, and we look forward to updating you on business growth and substantial progress towards our 2025 strategic plan.
Speaker 2: driveway and contributions from our newly acquired stores.
Speaker 2: Our second quarter results reaffirm our ability to leverage the value of our network to expand market share.
Speaker 2: Customers have the option of visiting our Lithia stores and their websites, or as accessing our e-commerce channels of driveway and green cars, improving our ability to drive efficiencies and our operations.
Speaker 2: We continue to see elevated GPUs.
Speaker 2: with slight normalization and use vehicles this quarter.
Speaker 2: Combined with our strong performance in after sales, we generated over $558 million in adjusted EBIDI in the quarter.
Speaker 2: With the continued strong performance, our investments in driveway and driveway finance were accelerated.
Speaker 2: We remain on track to hit our $50 billion in revenue and $55 to $60 in EPS by 2025.
Speaker 2: despite the recent volatility in capital markets and concerns around the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty, we're confident about our ability to deliver on our outlook.
Speaker 2: Now, I'll do a few highlights from the quarter.
Speaker 2: Total revenue increased 21% year over year, driven by growth across all our segments, with all channels performing strongly and successfully navigating market dynamics.oz
Speaker 2: On a same-store basis, total revenues and gross profit were down slightly driven by continued new vehicle inventory availability issues.
Speaker 2: Our teams navigated the current vehicle supply environment by maintaining strong vehicle gross profits per unit and growing volumes.
Speaker 2: Total vehicle gross profit per unit increase by 14.7% and our same store used to new ratio was 1.3 to 1 in the quarter.
Speaker 2: In addition, we sold 90 used vehicles per month per location, quickly approaching our 100 unit goal.
Speaker 2: We ended the quarter with new and used vehicle day supply of 32 and 62 days, up 39% and 5% year-over-year respectively.
Speaker 2: Driveway received 2.3 million monthly unique visitors for MUVs in a month of June .
Speaker 2: In the second quarter, Driveway retailed or wholesaled over 12,000 units that contributed over $233 million, or 3%, to our total revenue.
Speaker 2: We are on track to achieve our target $1 billion in incremental revenue through driveway for the year.
Speaker 2: This represents shop transactions and subsequent retail and wholesale sale transactions Similar with what is reported by E-commerce peers
Speaker 2: In the quarter, Lithian driveway combined retailed nearly 32,000 vehicles where our customers interacted with us using one of our many e-commerce tools.
Speaker 2: Representing approximately $1.3 billion, our integration of optionality in our e-commerce tools allows us to serve a diverse and evolving set of consumer interests.
Speaker 2: Driveway finance also continued to grow, originating over 14,500 loans, totaling $483 million in the second quarter. Content produced by farmland sixth-Customer Nations, Inc.
Speaker 2: As of the end of June , the portfolio was nearly $1.3 billion.
Speaker 2: Finally, acquisitions for the first half of 2022 totaled $2.1 billion in annualized revenues required.
Speaker 2: Our team has done a tremendous job generating value and developing a track record of integrating acquisitions the past couple of years.
Speaker 2: We've also managed to launch DFC, a flourishing captive financing division, and Driveway in Green Cars e-commerce offerings that continue to gain momentum.
Speaker 2: We are well positioned to continue generating value across our entire network and all business lines. Historically, our company has operated with $1 billion in revenues generating $1 of EPS. We are well positioned to continue our work with $1 billion in revenues generating $1 of EPS.
Speaker 2: The design and execution of our 2025 plan in a normalized market will improve this ratio to $1 billion in revenues generating up to $1.20 in EPS.
Speaker 2: The 10 assumptions behind our guidance can be divided into three distinct groups to follow.
Speaker 2: Starting with efficiency and operating leverage, we assume achieving a blended market share of 2.6% in the US across new and used vehicles.
Speaker 2: Total vehicle GPUs returning to pre-pandemic levels or around $2,100 per vehicle.
Speaker 2: Lowering SGNA as a percentage of gross profit towards 60% through operational improvements, resulting in greater efficiency across our footprint. Coming from the
Speaker 2: Secondly, our expansion plans target acquiring an incremental $9 to $10 billion in annual revenue to complete the build out of our North American footprint of 400 to 500 locations.
Speaker 2: integrating Driveway into an omni-channel solution and reaching profitability.
Speaker 2: continued headwinds around DFC's profitability due to building CECL reserves as we scale towards a 15% penetration rate on our loan portfolio.
Speaker 2: Contributions from adjacencies with higher pre-tax margins and operating leverage resulting in a lower base of SG&A related expenses.
Speaker 2: Lastly, we model the following around financial discipline and capital management.
Speaker 2: No further equity capital raises, removing the overhang of dilution to earnings.
Speaker 2: An investment grade credit rating, and a lower cost of capital. Translating into lower cost of capital.
Speaker 2: Flexibility and headroom in our capital allocation plan to allow for opportunistic share bybacks, taking advantage of divergences and valuation. Taking advantage of divergences and valuation.
Speaker 2: I want to remind everyone that in addition to our strategy of growing through acquisitions, our strategy incorporates new businesses and adjacencies that will continue to expand our value creation while beyond our 2025 targets.
Speaker 2: We believe the growth in our business beyond the 2025 plan with the full execution of our vision and a steady state. We could produce up to $2 per share in earnings for every $1 billion in revenue.
Speaker 2: To put some context behind this statement, we assume the following.
Speaker 2: Driveway and green cars generating 15 to 20% of our total revenue.
Speaker 2: Up to 20% of all vehicles sold by Lithian driveway will be financed through DFC, building out our complimentary profit stream without any additional spend to acquire customers.
Speaker 2: We also assume penetration rates for our used and new vehicles are at 40% and 10% respectively.
Speaker 2: Contributions from adjacent business lines requiring relatively small amounts of capital. This includes fleet and lease management, charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, consumer insurance, and business lines that leverage our network of stores, proprietary software, and regional footprints.
Speaker 2: With the skill of our revenue and previous adjacencies, we expect S-GNA will be below 50% of gross profits. along with provisions brought to fire will last for twenty. With given victory the need to?? the consistent with motorcycle like driven by a multi bearing to theadamente of Him estranged For police requests, due to signature information used by these National Biologist Democrats, USF laboratories and the deep wonders and Pollution Research St. you
Speaker 2: The framework we have presented above is designed with the ultimate goal of developing the most diversified vehicle transportation organization with simple, convenient customer experiences, fully leveraging the value of our network and infrastructure. The framework is designed with simple, fully leveraging the most diversified vehicle
Speaker 2: I would like to shift the discussion to our network development or M&A strategy and provide an update on our progress requiring and integrating new stores within the Lithia and driveway family.
Speaker 2: Before we dive into the details, I want to step back and review the key attributes of our strategy.
Speaker 2: First, we look at locations that build our network to achieve a target of being within 100 miles of the consumer, allowing us to conveniently reach and serve large pools of customers for their full ownership life cycle, and efficiently utilize our network for vehicle distribution, restoration, and warehousing. For vehicle distribution, restoration, and warehousing.
Speaker 2: Today our network is made up of approximately 300 locations within 250 miles of 95% of the population in the United States and 60% of our customer base being within 100 miles of those locations.
Speaker 2: That's a considerable competitive advantage versus any of our peers.
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, we're able to service our customers quicker, at lower costs, and provide an in-house financing solution, in-store or online. That's a powerful combination.
Speaker 2: During Q2, we acquired $1.4 billion in annualized revenues.
Speaker 2: In the first half of 2022, we acquired $2.1 billion in annualized revenues, marking 63% of our total revenues targets in our 2025 plan. $2.2 billion in annualized revenues, marking 63% of our total revenues targets in our 2025 plan.
Speaker 2: We are excited to welcome all of our new team members to the Lithia and Driveway family.
Speaker 2: In the past month, we have noticed an increase in queries from investors regarding the M&A climate and pipeline for our new opportunities. In the past month, we have noticed an increase in queries from investors regarding the M&A climate
Speaker 2: Investors have been trying to understand our valuation framework given the macro headwinds and normalization of GPUs.
Speaker 2: I want to reiterate, we are disciplined and methodical about our strategy and our pipeline of opportunities remains quite robust.
Speaker 2: A few final thoughts on M&A.
Speaker 2: One, we are a seasoned team with a track record of finding assets that fit into our investment profile and integrating new leaders into our culture. The track record is a track record of finding assets that fit into our investment profile and integrating new leaders into our culture.
Speaker 2: We remain disciplined in our pricing hurdle rates, targeting prices of 15 to 30 percent of revenues.
Speaker 2: three to seven times EBITDA based on normalized earnings, and generating a minimum of 15% after tax returns.
Speaker 2: We continue to achieve over 25% historic returns on our acquisitions.
Speaker 2: Since launching our 2025 plan just two years ago, our M&A activity has contributed to nearly a billion dollars in adjusted EBITDA and $12.6 billion in revenue, a noteworthy achievement.
Speaker 2: Our approach has been highly accretive to shareholders while consistently earning above our capital costs.
Speaker 2: Alongside our strong network across North America, we see significant opportunity to build leverage through expanding verticals, which drives revenue opportunities, and horizontals representing adjacencies that increase profitability.
Speaker 2: Our e-commerce business vertical driveway builds our online presence by integrating our physical infrastructure.
Speaker 2: and logistics to develop a premier on the channel business.
Speaker 2: We reported another strong quarter of driveway performance, demonstrating how we are making inroads, finding new customers, while many of our competitors are having to reexamine their own growth strategies.
Speaker 2: Driveway is well positioned to become the premier choice in e-commerce automotive retailing. And we remain confident with our plan to profitability in the near future.
Speaker 2: GreenCars continues to gain traction as we attract consumers with our sustainable vehicle learning center and marketplace powered by driveway.
Speaker 2: During the second quarter, online activity on green cars grew to over 384,000 MUVs in June .
Speaker 2: Higher fuel prices have boosted consumer interest in all types of electric vehicles and Green Cars provides a wealth of information on sustainable options from BEVs to hydrogen propulsion solutions centered around affordability for all customers.
Speaker 2: To date, we have installed 600 chargers, supporting the adoption of sustainable vehicles.
Speaker 2: We're also training our technicians and increase our breadth of services to provide the same level of service for sustainable vehicles provided to our traditional fleet of vehicles.
Speaker 2: Driveway Finance Corp or DFC are most developed horizontal posted another strong quarter making inroads as the primary landing option for Lithia and driveway customers.
Speaker 2: At its future state, we believe DFC can contribute approximately $650 million in incremental profits a year and is a key contributor to driving SG&A as a percentage of gross profit down to 50%. For more information, visit DFC.gov
Speaker 2: I'm pleased with the pace of growth and our ability to not sacrifice near-term growth at the expense of adding risk to our portfolio.
Speaker 2: While remaining nimble, our conviction in the Lithian driveway strategy remains strong and I'm confident we're well positioned to deliver on our 2025 plan and beyond.
Speaker 2: Our portfolio mix, acquisition strategy, and all sales verticals are performing ahead of expectations. And all sales verticals are performing ahead of expectations.
Speaker 2: We're rapidly growing market share and generating some of the best returns on capital in all of retail.
Speaker 2: Our capital allocation strategy is balanced and we're ready to take advantage of dislocations in the marketplace.
Speaker 2: We have the right team in place to respond and find opportunities in changing market conditions.
Speaker 2: We will continue to lead the growth, transformation, and consolidation of our industry, the largest retail sector in the world. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Chuck.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Brian .
Speaker 2: DFC continues to be with the undrived ways largest lender as we accelerate our growth and originations.
Speaker 2: For the second quarter, DFC's penetration rate increased to 9.7% up from 6.2% in the prior quarter with an exit rate of 12.9% in June .
Speaker 2: For 2022, we are revising our full-year penetration rate to between 9% and 10% up from 7% we communicated last quarter. This would not have been possible about our stores continued focus on retail readiness.
Speaker 2: Retail readiness is critical for DFC to realize our value proposition to maximize the revenue potential of our existing customers rather than incurring the frictional cost of new customer acquisition.
Speaker 2: We continue to maintain an appropriate fully risk-adjusted return on the finance contracts we originate, which on average is three times as profitable as loans originated by third-party lending partners. Thank you.
Speaker 2: As Brian indicated earlier, we are reaffirming our guidance of the future state expectation that DFC will contribute $650 million in earnings to Lithian driveway. This would be predicated on DFC maintaining a seasoned and mature portfolio after consistently achieving penetration rates of 20% of all Lithian driveway sales with a minimum base of $50 billion in revenues.
Speaker 2: From a credit quality perspective, DFC was able to increase our weighted average FICO score by 28 basis points from 690 in our first quarter this year originations to a weighted average FICO 718 as we continue to leverage the top of funnel potential being a true captive. This year, DFC was able to increase the weight of the funnel by 28 basis points from 690 in our first quarter this year.
Speaker 2: The increase in credit quality is particularly noteworthy as we look to mitigate any potential negative impacts of economic and industry fluctuations.
Speaker 2: Last, in the second quarter, we experienced a modest compression on both interest margin and spread rates, primarily attributed to the higher credit quality of our originations and the impacts of a rising interest rate environment respectively. We continue to monitor market rates on a real-time basis and will increase DFC's yield rates by maintaining our integral risk-adjusted total rate targets balanced against market conditions.
Speaker 2: Increases in yield rates will mitigate spread compression in the short term without sacrificing our ability to achieve our portfolio and risk-adjusted financial targets.
I'll now turn the call over to our CFO , Tina Miller. Thank you, Chuck. In the second quarter, SG&A as a percentage of gross profit for the quarter was 58%. Our investments across driveway and driveway finance were the main drivers of the reduction in margins with driveway related advertising contributing 160 basis points.
We're confident in our ability to gain operating leverage across our platform and utilize our performance management and reporting insights to enable our teams to take the necessary steps to lower costs across their networks.
We are still realizing the favorable benefits of positive operating leverage due to elevated GPUs, which over time we see normalizing to 60% SG&A as a percentage of gross profit in our 2025 plan. S
In the second quarter, we generated $558 million in adjusted EBITDA, a 14% increase over the same period last year and $192 million in free cash flow. We define free cash flow as adjusted EBITDA plus stock-based compensation, plus the following items paid in cash, interest, income taxes, dividends and capital expenditures. We define free cash flow as adjusted EBITDA plus stock-based compensation, plus the following items paid in cash, interest, income taxes, dividends, dividends, capital expenditures, dividends, and capital expenditures.
As a reminder, this number does not include a pro forma of the full EBITDA contribution of acquisitions purchased within the last 12 months.
Year to date, we have generated nearly 653 million in free cash flows. We are opportunistic in the quarter, repurchasing 1.9 million shares, or 6.5% of our outstanding shares, at an average price of $284 per share. We have just under 100 million available on our authorization. Our capital allocation strategy continues to balance acquisitions internal investments, such as DSD and driveway, and shareholder return.
Our approach is a durable strategy that positions us well to be a leader in the personal transportation space for years to come. Shifting to the balance sheet, we continue to maintain our investment grade discipline. At the end of the quarter, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.7 times. Our team's ability to allocate capital and manage risk effectively puts us in an attractive position, particularly around the liquidity and generating returns for our shareholders.
In conclusion, we're poised to take advantage of possible volatility of the macroeconomic environment and hypothetical changes underway in the auto sector. Our balanced approach toward growth and returning capital sets us up to achieve our 2025 plan of $50 billion in revenue and $55 to $60 in EPS with significant runway into the future.
This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now like to open the call to questions from the audience. Operator.
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue.
For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your hand set before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we pull for questions.
Thank you. Our first question is from Daniel Embro with Stevens Inc. Please proceed with your question.
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking our questions.
Good morning, Daniel. Brent, I want to start on the new unit side. You know, I think a little bit of a surprise there, just the same store down around 27, a bit weaker than the industry. Was that driven by any one, maybe OEM in particular, or can you just talk about what you think maybe drove? Drove that underperformance for the industry, here in the second quarter.
Sure, Daniel, actually our franchise mix in relationship to the industry. And we actually measure something called market share and our manufacturers actually help us do that, which is called MSR Sales Efficiency. We were actually up year over year, 5% in market share as compared to our brands, which doesn't show in the readthrough of the down 20 plus percent in new vehicles.
actually our franchise mix in relationship to the industry and we actually measure something called market share and our Manufacturers actually help us do that which is called MSR sales efficiency. We were actually up year over year 5% in market share as compared to our brands which you know doesn't show in the read through of the down you know 20 plus percent in new vehicles.
Nick shift. Thanks for that. Tina, moving to sjna. I think you called out 160 basis points of impact from driveway advertising. But I'm curious, can you quantify what the impact of driveway finances? I think last quarter you said as you build diesel reserves, that's a net loss flowing to the sjna line, just any help quantifying that?
Yeah, the impact in the quarter.
Yeah, so combined when we look at driveway and driveway finance, it's about 185 basis point impact to SG&A, you know, combined. So, driveway finance, most of that's driven by those special reserves that we need to take up front as we originate those loans. There's obviously some offset from the interest income that we're receiving.
I think the net amount in the quarter impact of P&L was 3.5 million in burn rate for DFC. Great, and then just follow up to wrap it up on DriveWift and Ants. Can you remind us just what your expectations are at this point in the credit cycle for kind of the credit profile? Chuck, I think mentioned average spike go was up, but just kind of curious how you guys are modeling that internally and then as related, you're up to almost 13% penetration. I mean, do you guys have a planet or disclosing some of those credit metrics which is charge off to delinquencies?
Just trying to think about modeling that out going forward because it becomes a bigger piece of the earnings. earnings.
Yeah, thank you, Daniel. In terms of our credit profile, our target is really to be on the upper sort of scale of the near prime portion of the credit spectrum, but as I indicated in my comments, just based on sort of the economic environment, we are clearly looking to move up into the lower tier market. So I would say our weighted average FICO over time should be migrating to the upper 600s, maybe even low 700s, and we just think that that's prudent in order to achieve.
are risk-adjusted fully burdens return metrics. And then in terms of timing for reporting, Tina, do you like our little? Yeah, I think as DSC's portfolio grows, we plan on adding some disclosures probably toward the end of, with the Q4 reporting cycle around that time. Obviously we have the balance sheet disclosures already in our 10Q, but we do see that getting to be a larger part of our disclosures as we hit year end and reporting cycle.
Great. I appreciate all the color. I'll hop back in the queue, but best of luck.
I'll hop back in the queue, but best of luck. Thanks, Daniel.
Thank you. Our next question is from Rajat Gupta with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.
Well, hey, thanks for taking the question in the morning. Yeah, maybe the first question, hey, hey, Brent. Maybe the first question is just, you know, how are you planning for the operation if the economy does go into a mile or more great or severe recession? Can you give us some boundaries around, you know, what the earnings power might look like in different scenarios, you know.
If you do end up in a new vehicle car environment, which is probably close to 12-13 million in a recession.
and GPUs normalize back to pre-pandemic levels faster than expected. How does the earnings power of the business look like? Any color on SG&A to gross in that scenario or FNI.
How should we think about that given the starting point today is so different than prior downturns? And I have a follow-up. The next question is, how should we think about that given the starting point today is so different than prior downturns?
Understood, Raja. This is Brian . I think most importantly, remember that Lithium Motors and Driveway has added $12.5 billion in revenue over the last a little less than two years now, which helps backfill the loss that we'll see from GPU rescissions. I think most importantly, we look at a couple different levers in our organization. As Tina mentioned,
We burned almost 185 basis points or $25 million last quarter on the new initiatives. And I think our first steps are to tone back some of the initiatives. And maybe we're growing DSC a little bit slower. And we are now getting pretty good organic out of driveway.com that we can probably taper back ad budgets and reduce that burn rate from 25 to something lower around 15 or so, which is important. I think also in terms of operations.
We've found a lot of efficiencies within our businesses in terms of personnel costs, and that's the big push is to share best practices and simplify those processes to increase productivity. That's always a big lever into what we do. And then I think with, I would say the relaxation in pricing on transactions allows us the ability to deploy our, you know, our war chest of capital that's quite robust right now. And, no, it was possible for people to pay millions to their you
even in a lower earnings type of environment, we're going to be generating, you know, a billion two to a billion five in cash flows, which allows us to buy somewhere between, you know, three and seven billion dollars in revenue depending on pricing. So there's a lot of things that we can do to be able to do that. I would also point you, Rajat, to slide seven of the investor deck. We did originally model out what lower GPUs and what a...
a slower environment would look like. Okay, it's highlighted in a dotted white section for anyone that would like to see it to give you some thoughts on how maybe to model that, and we can sure try to help you with that a little closer.
Thank you. Our next question is from Chris Bottigliere with BNP. Please proceed with your question.
You guys, thanks for taking a question. The first question I ask is it looks like you have about a billion dollars of unsecuritized auto-loan receipt of those without sheet today. So I don't understand kind of what your path criminally quitting you for that business is in the current environment. When you expect return to ABS market, what are your conversations with like ABS makers in terms of your ability to tap those markets?
Yeah, hi Chris, Chuck answering the question here. In terms of our capital deployment strategy and capacity planning for primarily the driveway finance corporation, it's really a four-pronged strategy. First, obviously, that will require some amount of lithium liquidity, but we really see the primary conduit of our financing as a combination of an ABS warehouse conduit for transitory lending and then moving it.
the ABS term market is active. There's plenty of liquidity and investors do have sufficient capital to maintain those markets both in the short term and midterm. So we do see that as the longest, the highest form of our capital requirements. And then last we will look for other forms of liquidity, perhaps a forward flow arrangements or both portfolio sales to make sure that we have a robust capital structure to fund the FCA.
Gosh, that's really helpful. And then I'm related, oh, a semi-related question, it's still incredible, but...
Could somebody help walk me through kind of how we should be thinking about floor planer 6 fence moving forward? Are those still live or based or have you moved to SOSR and then it looks like that expense actually went lower quarter on quarter as even as rates went higher? Are there any offsets right now? I think you get floor plan assistance that shows in COGS I think it's a contra COGS. So to try and understand how to model floor planer 6 fence moving forward as you know benchmark rate skill that higher.
Hi Chris, this is Tina, thanks for your question. So yeah, most recently with our amendment to our credit facility, we did move to SOFR, so off of LIBOR, and that's the benchmark rate that we'll be using for a majority of our floor plan debt. You know, we have a few captive floor plan silos as well that I think, you know, have different rates, I think some are prime, but you know, really SOFR is probably a majority of our floor plan financing to really model off of, and then you're correct, we do get floor plan assistance from some of our manufacturers. A lot of that money actually goes to cost of sale though, from a presentation perspective, so you know.
morning everybody just a a first question on on musical in matory at sixty two days it seems like it's a little bit on the high side i mean that might be you know total and not you know finished goods you know stuff that might be in process of might be a little bit flier i'm just curious what you think about that uh... you know how you might manage that down over time
Hi, John . Thanks for joining us today. This is Brian . I think on use vehicle inventory at 62 work pretty comfortable. That's a real normalized level of where we were pre-COVID. And I think today knowing that we have two additional national brands in green cars and driveway. It's what our efforts are trying to push is the ability to find cars. I think it's also important to note that our ability to grow inventory is quite important because it expands the selection to our customers through all three of our channels.
Most importantly, when we're starting to see now some of our e-commerce peers are used only pairs that are really struggling Just getting inventory. So we're pretty comfortable at that 61-62-day supply And know that there is probably you know some softness that will come in the market towards Late Summer but again, we're talking about a two-month supply and we'll adjust things according To what the market conditions are We're talking about a two-month supply and we'll adjust things according to what the market conditions are
heading into fall and in the winter. Okay, and then just a second question around SGNA. I mean, another longer term target is 50% and potentially lower relative to gross. It seems like the majority that is coming from business mix is DFC ramps up and other efforts ramp up that have lower SGNA burdens. But what could you think is sort of on a store basis, on an actual retail basis, where that could get to and where that could come down to based on efficiencies through online selling, et cetera.
Is that the kind of thing that you get below 60% materially just on a like for like basis? I would say that it's a 60 to 62% S-GNA in Operations and what we call the verticals now, okay? That's probably the realistic number and the disconnect as you mentioned really comes from DSC the fleet and leasing companies and in the other adjacencies That DSC alone I believe is 800 to a thousand basis points drop
in SG&A just from that one horizontal, which is a big part of it. Now obviously the other horizontals that we're working on, we're still modeling, we're still learning about, and they're in beta stages, but can obviously be the other large disconnects. When we start to think about the e-commerce platforms, if you remember originally we were talking about sub-60% levels in driveway, okay? We think that that's still possible, but that's gonna require us to get to 12 units.
per associate per month. Okay, and today we sit at a little under nine. Okay, but again, we're just under two years into the program and we have a new CRM system going into place that we've developed and should increase the efficiencies in the care centers as well as be able to expand our penetration rates and our closing ratio.
Okay, that's helpful. And then, Brian , just lastly, I mean, there's a lot of concern around the consumer and risk of a recession, but you guys have day-to-day contact with your consumers. I'm just curious if you could maybe comment on the state of your new vehicle buyer and your used vehicle buyer, because, I mean, it just seems like with this pricing and grosses that your consumer is still pretty damn strong and wanting more vehicles than you can even get for them. So, I mean, there's a lot of crosscurrents here, but it seems like the new and used vehicle buyer.
is still relatively healthy. I just wanted to get your take and your view of where this is going.
Well said, John , I mean, there's still a backlog in most manufacturers in new vehicles. Our used vehicles are still turning at quite a high rate. I'm gonna guess on this, but we've probably added five to seven days supply just from buying vehicles in other parts of the country and then getting them to reconditioning centers that are a little further away because we've had to expand the fine vehicles. So I think when we think about the consumer impact on day supply, the demand is strong. Okay, I mean, we were down what about...
$200 and GPUs and use, but that's still considerably higher than normalized states and we still see that as quite healthy. Obviously on new we're still at peak levels and you know and the backlog of vehicles are quite high. Just a couple highlights, our domestic day supply on new is around 60 days so we have pretty good flow even though there's...
some in transit on that. Really our softness in day supply, which is where we really are selling every car that we get about as quick as we can get them, is in our imports, which we're sitting at a 16 day supply and our luxuries are sitting at about a 29 day supply.
Okay, and just, are there any anecdotal or maybe systematic data points you could kind of highlight just on people waiting for vehicles and right sort of, you know, almost a built order operation where somebody's, you know, buying well ahead of the vehicle, actually showing up for at least committing avert. Sure, I would say on new vehicles about a third of our product is pre-sold, that's coming in, so that's good. And I think it's a lot of high demand vehicles.
The rest of the stuff may be wait listed, but it's not pre-sold where we have money on the car. Okay, so that's probably a pretty good relative number. The consumers, and if you look at our unique visitors to our website, it's still up massively. So there is still good demand for vehicles. And I think it's important to remember in affordability that when people are buying new vehicles, their used cars are so highly valued.
that the delta between the trade-in and the vehicle they're buying when the new vehicle is capped at MSRP and the used vehicle is uncapped is quite lucrative for the consumers. I mean we have examples of some consumers that bought new cars from us within the last year, year and a half and they've now turned around and sold those same cars either on trade-in or direct sales for something north of five to ten thousand dollars more than what they paid because they're really playing a commodity almost on their transportation needs.
It's neat to see that the consumers can win, especially if they are buying new cars where that price for the new car has really been capped somewhere south of MSRP. Yeah, and it seems that towards the impact of rates. So that's a really good guy. Appreciate the insight. Thank you so much.
Thanks, John .
Thank you. Our next question is from Colin Langan with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
Thanks for taking my questions. Just to follow up on your comment, I think you said one-third of vehicles now are pre-sold. Has that changed? I actually kind of thought almost everything was, you had to wait several months to get any car right now. Has that changed over the last 3 to 6 months? Was that 50%? Yeah. And again, we don't have the exact data. We got it by franchises somewhere. For more information, visit us at www.plastics-car.com
But I would say it was close to 50% 90 days ago. Okay, so since interest rates have come up, it definitely has affected things, but it's still a robust environment where those cars hit the ground and it's someone that wants to drive the car and there's two other people waiting to drive the same car. And it's still a bit of a frenzy and we imagine that it'll continue through the rest of the year, especially knowing that.
supply lines for most manufacturers are going to remain quite tight until Q1 or Q2 of next year. Got it. That's helpful color. I also noticed, I mean new GPUs still very close to record levels on Nitpick, but they are down slightly from Q1. And I've heard automakers are talking about how they're going to take pricing from the dealers through different mechanisms. Is that starting to happen? Is that...
Is that driving the slight weakness or is that really sort of a rounding error from your perspective?
I would probably say it's closer to the latter, the rounding error. I believe that manufacturers transparency on pricing and stabilization on pricing will help stabilize front and margins at something higher than normal levels. I don't believe that that's what's occurring quite yet. It's just not how transactions are done. Unless a manufacturer chooses to move to a one-price type model for their network.
which, you know, we'd probably welcome because it does take away complexity in the relationship with the consumer when today we do deal with two different moving parts of a transaction. You know, we deal with financeability and then we deal with price negotiations and then throw in a trade and it gets quite complex and if we can take away that uncertainty about price by having it tighter to actual transaction prices, we're all for moving towards that as manufacturers.
I will say this, most manufacturers though, are tending against that because they, they fear that they want a fluid market, where consumers have been trained for so long that there's a good price and a bad price, and I can do better if I negotiate on my own, that a lot of consumers still think that way, and I think most manufacturers believe that the freedom of pricing is something that can be adjusted based off markets and regions and states, so.
important to know that there's not big pushes in that arena outside one or two of the European manufacturers.
And just lastly, FNI was down a bit. Is that attributed to, and maybe I missed this in the commentary because I know that when you do the DFC it takes away some of those profits. Is that the main driver there? Are there other factors going on?
It is. I mean, I think you saw F&I increase as GPUs increase, and I think as GPUs start to subside, you'll see F&I to some extent subside, that they're both driven off this supply and demand type of environment. I think the difference that you're seeing in the last few quarters is about $130. So as Chuck mentioned, we were pushing 10% penetration rate, which means that now 10% of our business is being taken out of F&I.
and deluding the F&I number. So it's about $130 per unit. Is that right, Tina and Chuck? Year to date? Year to date, it's about $130. So if you see our penetration levels go up, okay, which Chuck mentioned, we were almost 13% in the month of June . So you're gonna continue to see a little drag in F&I from that effect.
Thanks for taking my questions.
Thanks Colin.
Thank you, our next question is from Brett Jordan with Jeffries. Please proceed with your question. Good morning, guys. Good morning. Good morning.
On the GPU, I guess, SGNATA gross and your outlook for GPUs return into pretty pandemic levels. I guess as we look at 25, you're looking at a 60% S-GNAAT gross, would you expect sort of materially higher levels in the interim? Obviously, a lot of the development spend continues, and you're looking at a return to $2,100 GPUs. You know, as we model it, should we think sort of mid-upper 60s in the shorter term, or do you manage down some of those investment costs around?
DFC in the interim? Yeah, I think internally the way that we think about it is how fast does demand and supply change and how quickly do those GPU levels rescind. I think we're in the camp that if there's a normal rescission where it's quarter over quarter declines and not month over month declines, I really believe that we'll get back to some level that's higher than the normal state of GPUs.
Now we were about 26, 2700 pre-pandemic. So we're gonna shoot in a $3 to $3,200 range, is probably a normalized level, if it subsides in a slow, methodical way. If there's some large economic event or further excessive increases in interest rates that affects demand in a big way, it may be a little harder to manage for a few months. But ultimately, we're pretty confident that we can get our...
are operational part of the business to that 62% SNA is a percentage of growth. Growth with knowing that if Chuck can tone back our growth rates a little bit on DFC that we can get those to profitability in three to four months typically. And now you start to see the real impacts that can drive SNA and we can adjust SNA in operations to some extent with the horizontal in the finance company.
Okay, great. And then a question, I guess on slide 14, you have the mix of value, which has clearly been growing in this environment, but you commented about a $5,100 average negative equity. Do you see an environment where, given the spike in values in the last 18, 24 months that we're going to have to, I guess, swim upstream against negative equity as, you know, normal depreciation returns? Or is that reason? Good insight, Brett.
Yeah, yeah, I mean, I think today we've calculated that about a quarter of the consumers have transacted in a higher GPU type of an environment, but remember also that it was offset by higher trade values, like I mentioned to John . So, though we know that, and today we sit at about 35% of consumers have disequity, and it's around $2,000 of disequity, they also have now over $2,000 of cash down, okay, which is a vast difference from what we are normally at pre-pandemic.
this equity on are ultimately new cars and late model use cars. The best is what we would call mainstream or lower demand new cars that eventually will have incentives again or will have price variance in them that allows us to absorb that $5,000 in this equity or that net difference of $3,500 with their cash down to make sure that we can get that. And I think that's very important to note in the model.
that our ability to find used cars come from trade-in, okay? And those trade-ins are about two-thirds of our inventory in normalized times. And, you know, I think that's the advantage of being a new car dealer that when there is disequity, it means you typically have to trade in your car because you can't clear your debt because you have to carry over some of the debt to the car that you're buying.
Right, so you would expect that the next couple of years a negative equity situation would be better than pre-COVID. the next couple of years, you would expect that the next couple of years
It would probably be a little worse. We're going to probably guess in the 5,500 per unit. Okay. We hope people will save a little more. Maybe there will be some tax savings. So you're talking about a $4,000 delta between cash down and dis-equity rather than a 3,500, which should push more people into mainstream new vehicles.
Great, thank you. Thanks Brett. Thank you. Our next question is from Ryan Sigdahl with Craig Hallam Capital. Please proceed with your question.
Thank you. Thanks, Brad. Thank you. Our next question is from Ryan Sigdal with Craig Hallum Capital. Please proceed with your question. Good morning, guys. Um.
Here's just want to dig into DFC a little bit more. So the loss expectation on the year increased from 9 million last quarter for 2022 to 20 million now penetration higher though. So 7% 9 to 10. How much of that loss change is from that higher penetration and those sea-sour reserves versus other assumptions? How much of that loss change is from that higher penetration and those sea-sour reserves versus other assumptions?
Hey Ryan, this is Chuck. I would say the vast majority of it, there was a small amount of spread compression that was pretty much offset by the increase in volume. So the vast majority of it was just that planning for future losses. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
that came from volume of business, not from loss expectations. Correct. Correct. I think Chuck, you had mentioned to me that the loss ratios are actually running below what we have reserved for. Correct. And so again, as we move up, thanks Brian , as we move up the credit quality spectrum, obviously our loss reserves as a percentage are going down. And so even though we're growing our provision rates pretty dramatically, as the overall portfolio book continues to increase, but on a percentage basis, we're in your status.
Someday everyone will sell value auto cars because it makes up about 17% of our business today. I think we all just get enamored with the CPO sales that make up 20% of our business, but our real thrust is in our core business. That's 63% of our volumes today, and that's really the heartbeat that comes from those trade-ins of high-demand vehicles that create better margins and the ability to sell less or demand cars at a...
more attractive price than used only dealers. So I think if we think about what cycles we went through with value auto or the higher age vehicles, they're always hard to get, okay? And maybe even more importantly than that, they're really hard to recondition. So when we look at our mix of value auto versus our peers, we're usually sitting at double to triple our mix rates. They're sitting at five to 6% typically. The used car retailers, obviously, they don't have the ability to recondition those cars because it...
typically requires diagnostic tools that are, you know, 10 years and older that we still have in our tool rooms to be able to fix those cars and a little bit more experienced technician to be able to do that. Now, we don't mind that other people get into that business because most value auto cars are taken and untreated. Okay, so what we don't typically buy those on the street. Okay, so we're actually getting those, which means that...
Anyone else that decides to keep the value auto cars typically send them to us if there's a drivability issue or there's a higher cost repair on the vehicle for them to get it to the front line. A simple example would be a check engine light. The only person that can turn off a check engine light is us. Sometimes that can be $400 to $600 to really just check an O2 sensor and modify how the flow mass sensors are working or something. So, lots of simple things that we are far enough upstream that we get the profits as.
others begin to move into value autos as well because it is a pretty easy area of the highest demand cars that creates an affordability level that starts that consumer into the lithium driveway lifecycle that has really been our mantra for decades.
Thanks, Brian . Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from Michael Ward with Benchmark. Please proceed with your question.
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I just want to clarify something, Brian . When you were talking about gross profit per unit on new and use going down to 2100, that was solely for the purpose of when you were saying you can get $1.20 in earnings per share from a billion dollars in revenue. Was that correct?
I just want to clarify something, Brian . When you were talking about gross profit per unit on new and used going down to 2100, that was solely for the purpose of when you were saying you can get $1.20 in earnings per share from a billion dollars in revenue, is that correct? Correct.
Okay, so as you go forward, everyone out there is saying that inventory levels on a more normalized basis are going to be, whatever, 30% below historical.
In that environment, is there any reason why new vehicle grosses wouldn't be materially higher than they have been in the past?
We do think that grosses will remain higher mainly because of greater price transparency and a better ability to build the market.
Okay, I don't know though that.
in a normalized supply and demand environment, that day supply is a direct reflection of GPUs. Okay, and I think that's something that we'll have to see out. We haven't seen the correlation in the past because if you remember, we've run with our like Subaru as a manufacturer, we ran at teens day supplies for decades before the pandemic, you know, so, and we run at similar levels with them today, so.
I don't know that there's a direct correlation. I do believe that the ideas of price transparency and taking away the ideas of negotiation to some extent, so we can deal with financeability, trade values, and working with the consumers in a transparent and simple way is beneficial for the consumers from factory to driveway. And obviously our efforts with our manufacturers are to focus on that.
I think that will play a bigger role in stabilization of GPUs above normalized levels than probably a day supply will.
Is it converting though for more of like a shop and pick where it would be a discount type model and so where consumers come in if they're going to order a vehicle and they're going to wait three months for it which may become more the norm isn't that a more profitable environment then it would be just shop and pick
I would think that there's value ads for building something specific to what you want. I would think that there's value ads for building something specific to what you want.
I think most manufacturers, though, have to then deal with their production capacities and their production flexibility. I think most manufacturers are still going to be building a lot of inventory in the United States, because we do have facilities to do that, and consumers in America like selection. It's a little different than Western Europe , where there's space constraints and, you know, 70% of your cars are typically billed to order, where a consumer in America today wants to look at the blue one and wants to look at the one that's in the blue.
I add them.
Hey, so look, having the really high portion of your new volume being pre-ordered vehicles gives you some great insight, I think, on forward demand. We never thought to ask car dealers about.
pre-order backlog or the length of that or cancellations but it's not an irrelevant question given how much of your businesses is pre-ordered. And you have a good visibility in the 3Q and into the back half of the year. What can you tell us about that? Is there any rate of change on the length of the order to delivery time, rising, falling, stable or any kind of comment on cancellations to give us a little color among data that I'm sure you're tracking daily?
Sure. I think in a normalized environment, Adam, we were probably around 5 to 10 percent of our new vehicle sales were pre-orders.
typically on things like Wranglers and 9-11s and BMW M3s, that higher demand type of product. Okay, and we are sitting at about a third of our sales now are order bank, when we did peak a few months ago at probably around 50%. So it's a little bit softer, but maybe we end up, you know, stabilizing in the 15 to 20% level and more things are built to order. We sure hope they are, I know when.
Consumers have the optionality to do things, you know, the way that their own personality and their own driving habits fit. It's typically a better experience for them as well.
Thank you. Our next question is from David Wisman with Morningstar. Please proceed with your call. Thanks Adam.
Thanks, good morning.
Just going back earlier, you were talking about how demand is still very strong. You are still going to want to spend money on vehicles. You are still going to want to spend money on vehicles.
Also on the positive side we've got rising wages, tight labor market, but on the negative macro side we've got inflation, high but falling oil prices and falling copper prices. And there's some mixed signals there. I mean, do you think we're heading into recession or do you think maybe the overall economy might be in bad shape, but the auto market will remain strong. The auto market will remain strong.
You know, David, we try to keep our eye on what we can control. And we're obviously have a very proactive field team that runs each individual location. And each part of the country responds differently just as we learn from the great recession, where we knew that those that responded at the local levels closest to our customers were the ones that really won the day. And we built an organization.
and a mission that's growth powered by people and rely on them to be able to make those decisions. Now I know that may not have answered your question. I do believe that demand will soften as interest rates and inflation, either take hold further or hope to subside. I do believe that this is a supply and demand inflation imbalance that's creating inflation, which is a little different than actual price inflation.
Okay, that I think we'll see return to some level of normality. You know, and if we do see a recession, I think lithium driveway are nicely positioned with its adjacency to continue to execute through our strategy that we've developed to maximize shareholder returns and maximize our ability to grow to become the largest, you know, automotive retailer in the country and probably the world.
Thank you. Our next question is from Josh Taikowski with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question. Please proceed with your question.
Hi, thanks for sneaking me in here. I just had one for me. Just trying to understand that the year-over-year dynamics been used a bit better. Maybe I'm missing something. And I appreciate that GPUs are obviously still elevated from a historical standpoint. But just wanted to see if you could talk through the same store being...
It stands for used 18% higher average selling price is still year over year but GPU down 14% on what looks like kind of flattish used volumes.
Is that a function of just added procurement expenses based on some of your previous comments area or how should we think about that?
Sure, Justice, Brian , again, I think most importantly, the used car market is down a pretty good portion. So being flat, we thought was a pretty good level. And we're pushing those out of multiple different channels of driveway and green cars. I think most importantly though, it is taking us a little longer as we buy cars further away from our reconditioning centers.
that even though we're sitting with, you know, most, with a broad network to be able to recondition cars when we're buying cars, you know, in the minute Lanark and I got a BMW and a Lamborghini store is basically all we own there. We got to move those cars 300 miles and unfortunately that takes us six, seven days to do it times and then you're reconditioning in 72 hours, which is another three that it does build stuff. So I think we'd rather be on the side knowing that exposures to price, devaluations in our inventory.
is really a 60-day window. We like the idea of building inventory, knowing that driveway is building momentum and green cars is building momentum, that we can push those out in any environment, knowing that GPUs are still quite strong and in use.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Brian DeBoer for any closing comments.
Thank you everyone for joining us today. We're going to get back with the end of October and look forward to catching up again then. All the best. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
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