Q2 2022 Pultegroup Inc Earnings Call
[music].
Good morning, My name is Chris and I'll be your conference operator today.
At this time I'd like to welcome everyone to the multi group Inc. Q2, 2022 earnings conference call.
All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.
After the Speakers' remarks, there'll be a question and answer session.
If he would like to ask a question. During this time simply press Star then the number one on your telephone keypad.
To withdraw your question. Please press star one again.
Thank you Jim Zimmer you may begin.
Great. Thank you, Chris and good morning.
I appreciate everyone joining today to review our pulp Pulte Group conference call.
We review our second quarter results for the period ended June 32022.
Joining me to discuss Pulte group strong second quarter are Ryan Marshall, President and CEO , Bob O'shaughnessy, Executive Vice President and CFO , Jim SaaS Keys, Senior Vice President Finance a.
A copy of this morning's earnings release and the presentation slides that accompany today's call have been posted to our corporate website at Pulte group Dot Com. We'll also post an audio replay of this call later today.
I want to highlight that in addition to reviewing our reported Q2 results. We will also be reviewing adjusted results for the second quarter of last year.
Adjusted results exclude the impact of a $46 million pretax insurance benefit as well as a tax benefit of $12 million, resulting from a change in valuation allowances associated with state net operating loss carryforwards are.
A reconciliation of our adjusted results to our reported financials included in this morning's release and within todays webcast slides. We encourage you to review these tables to assist in your analysis of our business performance.
As always I want to alert everyone that today's presentation includes forward looking statements about the company's expected future performance.
Results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments made today.
The most significant risk factors that could affect future results are summarized as part of today's earnings release and within the accompanying presentation slides.
These risk factors and other key information are detailed in our SEC filings, including our annual and quarterly reports. Thank you and now let me turn the call over to Ryan Ryan Thanks, Jim and good morning, as you read in this morning's press release Pulte group delivered another quarter of exceptional and in many cases record setting financial results led by price.
<unk> and a 430 basis point expansion in gross margin, our second quarter earnings of $2 73 per share increased by 44% and 59% respectively over last year's reported and adjusted earnings per share.
Our strong earnings performance helped to further reduce our debt to capital ratio to below 21%, while raising our return on equity for the trailing 12 months to north of 30%.
We have talked in the past about wanting to deliver high returns over the housing cycle and building the financial strength to safely navigate changing market conditions I'm proud to say that we are accomplishing both.
I would also note that consistent with our stated plans we continue to return funds to shareholders, having repurchased an additional 3% of our shares during the quarter as.
As we approach the 10 year anniversary of reinstating our share repurchase program I think it's worth noting that we have reduced our share count from roughly 387 million shares at the end of 2012 to the current 233 million shares a decrease of almost 40%.
Bob will detail the rest of the quarterly numbers. So let me spend some time reviewing the demand dynamics, we experienced during the quarter.
Between National housing data and Wall Street analysts surveys I suspect my comments may only served to reaffirm your understanding of the changing market conditions.
It is clear that the 200 basis point increase in interest rates over the past several months finally caught up with consumers.
After two years of meaningful from a home price appreciation the jump in mortgage rates created sticker shock and pushed affordability out of reach for some first time buyers at the same time rising inflation falling consumer confidence and the drumbeat of a possible recession caused some buyers some move up.
Buyers to hit the pause button.
As for our active adult consumers the drop in the stock market combined with the overall uncertainty has created some slow some to slow their home search process as they wait for conditions to settle down.
While demand has slowed it is by no means stopped as we continue to work with buyers to sell homes at the right price where consumers see value. They remain engaged in the home buying process.
Consumers, who are in the market right now are obviously accepting of and making decisions based on current mortgage rates.
But we are experiencing with these customers is that given the volatility in mortgage rates a higher percentage of these buyers are interested in spec homes that can close in the coming 30 to 60, or even 90 days rather than building to order.
Given the shorter time to close buyers are using their own funds or available incentives to lock in a mortgage rate or by the rate down to an acceptable level in other words. During this period of rate volatility. Some buyers are willing to trade and the opportunity to personalize the home for greater financial certainty.
Reinforcing this point I can tell you that the majority of incentives in the second quarter took the form of longer term rate locks or rate buy downs.
Many of today's homebuyers can still afford the price of a new but some need a little help on the rate or want the mortgage rate certainty for a home that will close later in the year.
After 18 months of exceptional demand, we entered the second quarter with only 64 finished specs and while we have successfully increased spec production to our historic range of 25% to 30% of units. We had a limited supply of quick move in homes available.
We have taken actions to improve our inventory position and now have specs that have advanced in the build process and will be available to sell and close in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
During this period of interest rate volatility our strategy is to start specs consistent with buyer demand as.
As market conditions evolve we are prepared to continue starting specs reemphasize built to order homes or slow starts entirely as demand conditions warrant.
The fed has been clear in articulating their intention to fight inflation through higher rates and we recognize the housing market has been and will continue to be impacted by these actions.
While consumers are being understandably cautious people still desire homeownership aging millennial still need homes and there remains a long term deficit in U S housing stock after years of under building let.
Let me turn the call over to Bob for a review of our second quarter results Bob.
Thanks, Ryan and good morning.
Following on Ryan's comments, our second quarter financial results demonstrate both the continuation of positive trends as well as some of the newer challenges which are impacting the market.
In the second quarter multi group's home sale revenues totaled $3 8 billion, an increase of 18% over the prior year.
Higher homebuilding revenues in the second quarter were driven by a 19% or $83000 increase in average sales price to $531000.
Given our construction cycle times the increase in average selling prices, primarily reflects strong demand and pricing conditions across all buyer groups in the back half of last year.
In the quarter, we closed 7177 homes, which is down less than 1% from last year and a few units below our guide.
While the overall production environment remains generally challenging the shortfall in deliveries is primarily attributable to a specific supplier issue that impacted our Florida markets.
More broadly I think it's fair to say that the supply chain remains challenging while we are seeing areas of improvement I would use the word fragile to describe overall conditions between limited inventory of the system and bottlenecks in distribution.
The disruption in production and shipping can setback construction by a couple of days or weeks in.
In fact during the second quarter, our overall cycle times extended by another two weeks that being said, we are feeling a little more optimistic about supply chain chain conditions getting better through the back half of the year, allowing us to begin flowing back work days next year.
The mix of deliveries in the second quarter continued to align with our startup targets with 35% from first time buyers, 39% for move up buyers and 26% from active adult buyers.
In the second quarter last year, the mix was 30% first time, 43% move up and 27% active adult.
We reported 6418 net new orders in the second quarter, which is a decrease of 23% from the second quarter of last year.
The decrease in orders reflects both slower sales pace and higher cancellations, resulting from the significant increase in mortgage rates over the past several months.
The slowdown in sign ups impacted all buyer groups, although our first time buyers fared the best with orders up 1% to 2000 and 454 homes.
Move up orders were lower by 37% to 2172 homes and active adult orders decreased 27% to 1792 homes.
On a relative basis, the stronger orders among first time buyers reflects current buyer preferences for spec homes that can close sooner with less interest rate risk.
By design, our spec production has been heavily weighted toward our first time communities.
Our reported orders for the quarter also reflects an increase in cancellations as some consumers were impacted by the change in consumer confidence and today's higher rates.
On a unit basis, we had 1152 contracts cancel in the second quarter up from 665 cancellations last year.
This pushed up our cancellation rate for the period of 15% compared with 7% last year.
We always want our homebuyers to complete the transaction and enjoy their new pulte home, but when cancellations do occur we have been able to resell the home.
In the second quarter, we operated from an average of 791 communities, which is a decrease of 2% from an average of 808 communities last year.
After several quarters operating at a year over year deficit on communities Q2 should market inflection point as we begin showing growth in our year over year community counts.
More specifically in the third and fourth quarters, we expect to operate from an average of 808 hundred 30 communities respectively.
Both numbers would be up over the comparable prior year period as we begin to realize the impact of increased land investment over the last several years.
We ended the quarter with a backlog of 19176 homes, which is down 4% from last year.
While units are down slightly strong price appreciation over the past year has raised our backlog value by 18% to a record 11 6 billion.
At quarter end, we had 23349 homes under construction, which is an increase of 35% over last year.
Consistent with Ryan's earlier comments about buyers seeking to minimize time to close we've increased spec starts and ended the quarter with 6789 specs spec units under production.
While we have been successful in increasing the overall number of homes under construction longer cycle times mean that 70% of these units are at the start with framing stage.
As such we expect deliveries in the third quarter to be in the range of 7000 to 7400 homes.
While we have the homes in production given changing market conditions and ongoing supply chain issues. We now expect full year deliveries to be in the range of 30000 to.
To 31000 homes.
Based on the anticipated mix of closings, we expect the average closing price of homes in the third quarter and for the full year to be in the range of 540000 to $550000.
Supported by the strong price appreciation, we have realized over the past few quarters Pulte group generated substantial gains in our homebuilding gross margin, which increased 430 basis points over last year to 39%.
In addition to higher prices, our Q2 gross margins reflects the flow through of lower cost lumber purchased in the back half of last year.
As we discussed on our Q1 earnings call, we've experienced meaningful cost inflation for labor and materials in the current year led by a significant upswing in lumber costs at the start of this year.
Although lumber has decreased again, which will impact our 2023 closings. We've continued to experience incremental house cost inflation as the year has progressed.
On our most recent internal estimates, we now expect cash cost for the year to be up 10% to 12% over last year.
Despite the ongoing inflation in materials and labor, including the meaningfully higher lumber costs, we are raising our margin guide for the third quarter and now expect to realize gross margins of approximately 30%.
At the present time, we are maintaining our prior guidance for fourth quarter gross margins to be in the range of 29, 5% to 30%.
In the second quarter, SG&A expense totaled $3 totaled $351 million or nine 2% of home sale revenues.
In the prior year period, our reported SG&A expense of $272 million or eight 4% of home sale revenues included a $46 million pretax insurance benefit recorded in that period excluding.
Excluding that benefit our adjusted SG&A expense for the second quarter last year was $319 million or nine 8% of home sale revenues.
Based on the number of homes, we expect to close in the third and fourth quarters. We are targeting SG&A expense in the third quarter to be in the range of $9. One to nine 3% of homebuilding revenues at the midpoint. This would be a roughly 40 basis point improvement over last year.
For the full year, we still anticipate SG&A expenses to be nine 2% to nine 5% of home sale revenues.
Our financial services operations reported pretax income of $40 million in the second quarter, which is down from $51 million in the same period last year.
The decrease in pretax income reflects the extremely competitive market conditions that continue to pressure profitability and capture rate of the business.
In the quarter, our capture rate was 78% down from 86% last year as we are unwilling to chase market pricing down to unprofitable levels.
Our tax expense in the second quarter was $212 million, representing an effective tax rate of 24, 5%.
In the second quarter of last year, our reported tax expense of $136 million for an effective tax rate of 21, 3% included a tax benefit of $12 million and the benefit of federal energy efficient home credits, which expired as of December 31 last year.
Looking at the Bottomline Pulte groups reported net income for the second quarter was $652 million or $2 73 per share.
In the prior year, our reported net income was $503 million or $1 90 per share with adjusted net income for the period of $456 million or $1 72 per share.
In the second quarter. The company continued its active share repurchase program buying back $7 1 million shares for $294 million or an average price of $41 44 per share.
Through the first six months of the year, we have repurchased $17 4 million shares or 7% of our shares outstanding for $794 million.
Throughout the past 10 years, we have taken a fairly systematic approach to our share repurchases we plan to.
To maintain a routine presence in the market, but given ongoing stock market volatility, we will incorporate more of an opportunistic approach to share repurchases over the near term. We believe this strategy allows us to be more responsive to changing market conditions.
We ended the quarter with $732 million of cash and a debt to capital ratio of 28%.
We continue to see value in the potential to achieve appropriate risk adjusted returns and many of the land assets, we put under control over the last couple of years.
As such we invested $470 million in outright land acquisition during the quarter and invested another $655 million in the development of existing land assets.
Our total land investment for the second quarter to $1 1 billion.
We remain constructive on long term housing demand, but we appreciate that market conditions are in flux.
While we always maintain a disciplined approach to land investment we are assessing the land positions, we have under control to make sure that the underwriting assumptions supporting our investment reflect current market conditions and that the projected returns still achieve our required return thresholds.
At this time, we still expect to invest between four five and $5 billion in land acquisition and development for the year with more than half of this spend allocated to developing existing land assets.
Given today's changing market dynamics, the optionality of our land book becomes an even more important tools for potentially enhancing returns and controlling risks.
We ended the second quarter with 243000 lots under control of which 54% were controlled through options.
And as we highlighted on our last earnings call. We are assessing ways to meaningfully increase our option lot position to a target range of 65%, 70% of our lots under control.
Now, let me turn the call back to Ryan.
The more challenging demand conditions that developed in the quarter have continued through the month of July is the significant increase in mortgage rates has impacted consumers throughout the country. While all consumers are impacted by higher rates, we are seeing differences across our markets lower priced markets in places like Florida, Texas and the south.
These areas of ongoing high in migration are holding up better higher price markets are those which have realized outsized price appreciation in recent years have incurred a more meaningful slowdown in demand and tech hubs like Austin or in our western markets in California, and Washington, where prices were.
Keenly approach or exceed $1 million sales paces have slowed as buyers struggle with a combination of elevated prices and increased mortgage rates.
Housing is clearly in our sights of the federal reserves in its fight against inflation as the fed desires, depending upon the community home price appreciation has slowed stopped or through the use of incentives is taking a couple of steps back.
Through much of the second quarter incentives were mostly tied to the mortgage but this is now expanding to include discounts on options and lot premiums in the end. These are variations on a path toward lower price, which is what the fed needs to see is it assesses when they have moved rates high enough.
While we are still early in this process, we are starting to see some impact on the cost side commodities like lumber copper and aluminum have rollover.
Falling lumber prices alone could save us upwards of $10000 per home beginning in 2023.
And while land prices are notoriously slow to adjust deals are getting cancelled and or renegotiated we walked away from a handful of deals in the second quarter and as mentioned earlier, we are reassessing all of the land transactions. We currently have under control given ongoing changes in housing demand dynamics.
We remain constructive on the long term outlook for housing demand, but right now higher mortgage rates are having an impact.
We have to work harder to sell homes, we have to be more nimble in the market to make sure. We have the right product available we have to be responsive to changes in the competitive landscape there.
This is how homebuilding typically operates and I am extremely confident in pulte group's ability to compete.
I would highlight that we operate from a position of strength with an outstanding balance sheet, a strong land pipeline unmatched product quality and most importantly experienced and talented people throughout our organization.
So let me end by thanking our entire team for their hard work and commitment.
Great. Thanks, Brian we are now prepared to open the call up for questions. So we can get to as many questions as possible. During the remaining time in this call. We ask that you. Please limit yourself to one question one follow up.
Thank you and Chris if you would open the lines will get started with Q&A.
Certainly and as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question. Please press Star then one on your telephone keypad.
Our first question is from Matthew belief with Barclays. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the questions.
First one just on the buyer segments clear.
Clearly a wide difference there between your first time buyers to move up and active adult just curious if you could elaborate a little bit on what's going on there.
Clearly with first time buyers sort of by definition.
More financially constrained into this environment and as you mentioned more impacted by the move in rates and yet you have the significant difference between the buyer segments. So can you just sort of just elaborate a little on what you think is going on there. Thank you.
Yes, Matt and good morning, its Ryan the biggest thing I'd highlight here is the availability of quick move in homes in the first time buyer segment.
What we've seen with all buyers is that theres, a real preference toward.
Having a home that can deliver in the near term.
I think the uncertainty around supply chain delays and some of those things.
Certainly.
Proved to be more predictable and better but the biggest thing is just this the certainty of being able to lock in the interest rate without a whole bunch of incremental.
Rate lock points, and then they've been able to use incentives to buy down the current rate is something that they can.
Make work from a overall affordability standpoint, so I think thats the biggest difference.
As we highlighted in some of our prepared remarks, each of the buyer segments or the consumer groups that we target.
<unk> has been impacted in the current environment for different reasons, but.
It's really the availability to quick move ins that allowed the first time segment to outperform.
Got it thank you for that Ryan and then <unk>.
Second one on the incentives I think I heard you say at the end.
What was initially.
More related to the initial incentives being more related to rate buy downs, and such now sort of progressing into option and lot premiums coming down.
I guess number one I apologize if I didnt hear you but.
Could actually put some numbers or quantify that statement and number two just as these incentives has progressed are you actually starting to see any.
<unk> there are you actually starting to see some buyers sort of react positively.
To those changes in incentives. Thank you.
Yes, Matt.
Good question, let me maybe start first with the incentive load that we saw.
With sign ups.
And this is actually new contracts that we wrote in the second quarter.
They were in the range of about 2%.
Which is still below probably what we would consider to be a normal range of 2% to 3%. If you went back to pre Covid timeframes.
And that includes all incentives so.
<unk> zone options mortgage rate type incentives financing incentives et cetera.
It gets a little harder to quantify.
The change in lot premiums, because we're always re pricing and always releasing new lot option.
Lot premium pricing as we release new phases.
So that becomes a little bit more subjective.
But what we highlighted is accurate we are starting to see not only in our own business, but in the in the competitive set some additional incentives that are starting to go beyond just.
Financing related incentives.
Alright, much appreciated thank you very much.
Thanks, Matt. Our next question is from Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions.
First on your build to rent strategy.
I believe there have been about 1400 lots approved through the strategic relationship and I think first closings in 'twenty three.
You all put out initial kind of five year plan I am just trying to understand whether those targets are still good and really whether you've seen any shift in appetite from any of the build to rent operators or your partner in particular.
Good morning, we're right on target with.
Our kind of five year run of 7500 units in terms of kind of moving through that in a very programmatic way. So we feel very good about how the partnerships working and the progress that we're making.
We've not changed any targets to this point.
Candidly based on our performance in discussions with our partner.
If anything I would tell you maybe the appetite.
Could potentially slightly increase.
As we go into maybe some choppy your time, so no updates from us yet we like the way the partnership is working and we plan to continue kind of moving down the path.
Okay. Okay. Thanks for that and then you all.
You mentioned your to an extent the updated land strategy, but have you all started to rework any of the option deals now that demand has softened and are you, making any changes to that strategy to get to the targeted 65% to 70% option land I'm thinking are you.
Attempting to walk down the number of owned lots extend.
The takedown timeline of some of the option deals et cetera.
Yeah sure it's a fair question.
In terms of strategically no we are not changing.
Where we have been for what is essentially a decade now.
Yes, we still desire optionality, we still start with individual sellers.
What we've offered is that in order to get from where we are today, 54% in this most recent print.
To 65% and 70% were likely to be looking at more institutional type relationships.
That process is underway, we will give you updates as we make.
As transactions occur there.
We still think that we can move up from 55 into that 65%, 70% range taken a little bit of time.
But in terms of how we're approaching it not at all in terms of your question as it relates to our current attitude and negotiating stance.
We've said it in the prepared remarks.
<unk> always been I believe pretty disciplined in how we.
Evaluate our land position and negotiate transactions that hasnt changed and maybe it's even been heightened we are.
Taking a closer look.
At everything we are closing on.
So as an example, if we put a contract.
A parcel under control 18 months ago that was waiting final entitlements before we take that down.
We are revisiting the underwriting that we had when we approved the transaction to make sure that the absorptions and the pricing.
Our cost structure, because vertical construction costs are up horizontal development costs are up so we're looking at it Holistically does this transaction makes sense I will tell you we have walked away from a couple of transactions.
Where for a number of reasons, we just didn't think it made sense, whether it was locational or economic.
We are also.
Trying to make sure that the timing of takedowns makes sense and so we have had discussions with sellers that said hey, our original takedown structure was a b and C and we'd like it to be a D and E now.
I think the sellers.
I haven't seen a change in value propositions out there, but the ability to work with time is something that does and we have taken into account. So long story short hopefully this is really just us continuing to be disciplined in the land buying process.
And in a choppy market, yes, youre going to see time become more important to us.
And in some cases dollars so.
We will provide further.
Perfect. Thank you guys.
Thanks, Jeremy.
The next question is from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
Yes. Thanks, very much guys was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on.
Some of the comments you made with respect to market conditions in particular I wanted to ask about your assessment of the alternatives that your customers are.
<unk>.
You mentioned that there's a preference respects they can move into quickly you said that there are remaining engaged.
We know theres not a lot of standing inventory out in the marketplace have you either on the newer existing.
We've also begun to hear that some of the other larger public builders.
Slowed their roll a little bit on production and so.
Bottom line question is are you seeing that your customers are finding alternatives.
Outing out in the market or are you continuing to find that they are remaining on your interests lists and things of that nature and have you seen anything specific in terms of your competition.
Doing anything, particularly disruptive.
With respect to there.
Production in other words have they have you seen an increase in production activity or have you actually seen the opposite.
Yes, Stephen Good morning, there was a lot there so let me see if I can.
Pack at one at a time in terms of.
Our competition, we've actually seen competition pull back slightly in terms of the amount of inventory production that they are putting.
Into the market and Thats that specifically for some of our competitors that I think are predominantly spec builders.
We havent seen anything thats been.
Irrational.
Or widespread irrational disruptive type behavior, when it comes to incentive or price drops or things of that nature of.
Of course, there is the anecdotal.
<unk>.
Builder in a specific market in a specific sub market that might have.
Our unique or particular challenge that they're working against but we haven't seen anything that we would highlight at a national level.
In terms of.
The choices and the opportunities that buyers have I think it's still a tough market to find.
Our homes that are in the right.
<unk> at the right price with the timing that matches up with what buyers one.
More than anything Steven what we've tried to kind of highlight.
Bob and I were just out in the market a couple of weeks ago.
And we were in multiple sales offices and multiple different cities over over the course of two or three days.
And spec inventory is definitely preferred.
And I think it's all about the financial certainty that a buyer can get by being able to lock in the rate without paying a whole bunch of extra discount points, which you have to pay for a longer term rate lock or.
They are able to take the current market rate and put some incentive dollars against that and buy it down or do a five year arm or a seven year arm or something of that nature. So I think.
What we're seeing with buyers if they can find.
The home that meets their needs and they are able to get certainty around the financing we're seeing buyers move forward.
As part of the reason that we highlighted in our prepared remarks that buyers are remaining engaged in the process.
We've been very successful in getting our backlog across the finish line for the most part.
As we've looked at the reasons for.
Cancellations, they're varied like they always have been.
There is not surprisingly been a disproportionate change in financing.
So we're still able to get buyers across the finish line and qualified in the cases, where buyers are canceling.
Been successful in getting those homes resold pretty quickly so.
It's a choppy market out there Stephen I think we're doing some really nice things we continue to emphasize quality of the homes that we're building and customer service buying land in the right locations and I think over the long term.
In a broad housing environment that we are very constructive on.
We think over the next year or two three years, we've positioned ourselves to be.
Very successful with our overall strategy.
Great. That's really helpful. I mean, I'm, particularly your comment about the certainty versus the qualifications. It sounds like for a lot of buyers its not math its mental and that's encouraging.
I wanted to follow up regarding your.
Your commentary about on incentives.
Excuse me still being lower than normal I think you said, 2% on new contracts versus normal is as much as three.
And that people are preferring these rate lock or buy downs.
A couple of things one we had heard that rate buy downs have gotten even cheaper that used to be typical four to one ratio and now we've heard ratios as low as like two and a half to one. So I was wondering if you can comment on that whether that's been benefiting you and then secondarily. We were it was interesting to see that your order price actually was quite strong again.
Despite a pretty heavy mix of entry level buyers and so I'm curious if you could comment on that did you actually see order price increase.
In all three segments or are exactly what was going on there that drove the very nice growth in order price this quarter.
As Steven.
I'll take the first part of that and I'll, let Bob give you. Some some details on the order pricing in terms of kind of incentives that are out there.
I think all.
Our speaking for ourselves, but I think our competitive set as well I think.
We've been.
We've worked to be smart and finding.
Where the market is and what will move the needle for buyers.
You mentioned that just a second ago I think as much as anything this is mental versus price.
So we've been cautious not just to cut the bottom of the market out from from underneath what.
What I think we've all worked so hard to achieve because that may not ultimately move.
The fear that's out there in the minds of a lot of buyers specifically our move up in our active adult buyers.
As far as rate buy downs.
I'll, let Bob maybe comment on the ratio we do have.
Currently advertised on our national website, a $4 two 5%.
Interest rate.
Which is on a seven year arm or a <unk> six arm as I think they are now doing but we think there. We think there are solutions out there for buyers that are ready to move forward and.
We're not having to completely give away the farm in order to define some of those interest rates that I think are more like what we saw 90 days ago, Bob do you want to touch on <unk> question on pricing.
Yes.
Interesting.
Look at our Asps.
In the most recent print.
19%.
The highest.
Kind of growth of Asps as in the first time space.
Which was up 24% move up and active adult was up about 20%.
So the 19% growth for the company as mix adjusted right.
If you look at our backlog what we've seen is to answer your question pricing up across all three so our backlog asps.
Our higher for all three of our.
Key demographics first time move up and active adult.
Bob was that sequential is that a sequential comment or adjust your bet is that is a that is versus the first quarter of this year.
Great.
And interestingly.
The highest the highest increase on a relative basis. Among those is to move up now mixed matters and all that.
But that move up buyer space is probably the biggest contributor to that increase.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Yes.
Our next question is from Mike Dahl with RBC capital markets. Your line is open.
Good morning, Thanks for taking my questions.
That's still a lot to dig in on here.
Brian Bob I know typically you don't give things like monthly trends, but just in light of this being such a unique and quickly changing environment wondering if you could.
Quantify your order trends by month and give us a little more quantification on how July is tracking.
Yes, Mike I think we're going to stick with.
Our previous kind of practice and not get into the monthly detail.
I will tell you that we did see a decline as we move through the quarter.
April .
<unk> was still relatively strong.
May slowed and then June slowed again, specifically.
After the 75 basis point increase that we saw from the fed last month, we saw a big change in June .
And then Thats really kind of continued through July .
We have.
Seen an uptick in cans as we've moved through the period as well I think again, all kind of related and tied to.
The the kind of buyers remorse and the fear of maybe potentially buying.
At the top of the market as we potentially go into a recessionary type environment I think thats weighed heavily on buyers. So.
We're.
We're still.
I'll just I'll leave it at that.
Okay, maybe just a quick kind of part two before I ask second question.
If July is still tracking.
Similar I don't know if its EMR worsen in June we held effectively retraced that entire last 75 basis point move up in.
Right. So so just.
It doesn't seem like we've seen in order trends improve really across the group based on your comments specifically.
So wondering if you can kind of reconcile that but my second question is around land and following up.
On some prior questions and your comments around managing strategy and you've always been disciplined and if we look on a forward basis based on where you are kind of tracking on orders you are wrong.
Position might end up at call. It nine to 10 years, if we were using orders as the denominator, which is obviously quite outdated. So how are you thinking about incremental acquisition.
Or as I think through mid May have asked paring back your own brand position more aggressively.
Looking out.
Yes, Mike.
I appreciate the question on land, let me just I'll finish your question about kind of what we've seen from buyers.
As rates have pulled back over the last call it three to four weeks.
A little bit so I think thats certainly been helpful.
We have seen a slight uptick in.
Our ability to sell and get new deals done.
As I think buyers have kind of come to terms with the current environment, but when you combine the higher rates.
Along with I think the overhang of low consumer confidence.
Some combination it's pretty volatile cocktail, but I think we're all dealing with and helping the consumer too.
Make what is the single biggest.
Purchase of their lives so.
Theres a lot wrapped up in there.
We're going to continue to focus on a lot of the basics, we're going to continue to focus on making sure that our community execution is great that we've got the right product that we've got.
We're priced competitively we are not going to find ourselves in a position, where we're giving up market share.
Because we're being two margin proud.
We're obviously very happy with the work that we've done on the margin side, but I do one.
The investment community and our investors to know that we're going to continue to be very market competitive.
Moving to the land side, Mike Theres couple of things here that I'd highlight number one we continue to be very focused on through cycle investment.
And delivering high return on invested capital.
So the way that we have allocated capital the amount of land that we've put under control the way that we have structured our purchase transactions has all been toward maximizing return I think we've done an unbelievable job there.
As we move into this period of time, where demand is clearly slowing and we've got lower new orders to your point you could end up with more years owned or more years controlled than what you realistically probably need.
We think thats the beauty of the option strategy that we have undertaken over the last number of years.
And so we've got.
Two potential options, yes, you can.
Work to trim the owned.
Land position, but you can certainly also trimmed the option land percentage as well or as Bob highlighted we've got the opportunity to renegotiate some of that on time.
So.
This is a business where you clearly need forward land, we like what we have under control, but we're not blindly.
Rushing into every contract without.
Given everything a second third and fourth look to make sure that it still makes sense.
Based on current market conditions, but also based on our overall land pipeline and what we think we need to run a profitable high returning business in the future.
Bob anything else you'd add on land our land pipeline.
Maybe the only thing I would add if you look at our owned lot position, we own a 113000 lots three months ago that was 112000. So despite the investments that we've made in the current quarter as an example, yes. It is.
Not like we are bulking up the owned position to Ryan's point, we've got we've got flexibility with the option. If you look at our quarterly.
Growth in the balance sheet as an example, we put a lot of money on the balance sheet in this quarter. The majority of that was house.
Which is going to be quick turning for us so.
We put 800 plus million dollars into inventory.
In the quarter.
Which is reflective of that $1 billion, one that we spent on land and development, but again a lot of that is house that it's the cycle time extension that we've talked about and so we will get that money back pretty quickly.
So curious loud and clear we have.
The ability to influence what our what our owned lot position looks like based on the strength of the book we have today.
Alright, Thanks, Brian Thanks, Bob I appreciate the color.
The next question is from Alan Ratner with Zelman and Associates. Your line is open.
Hey, guys. Good morning, Thanks for the commentary and information so far.
Bob maybe on that last point, just talking about the inventory build in <unk>.
Primarily the wind build there I just wanted to clarify.
<unk> your start pace strategy at this point.
Ryan I think your message is loud and clear that you guys are seeing relatively stronger demand on homes that are closer to delivery, which I think makes a lot of sense.
At the same time with Bill cycles, where they are you guys do you kind of need to make a decision on where you potentially see demand going over the next six 912 months. So have you actually been maintaining that pace of spec starts.
Assuming that that's where the demand will continue going forward or have you started to dial that back.
A bit from where you were earlier in the year.
Yes, Alan so.
The pace of spec starts has been dialed back from where we were in the first part of the year. No question, because we've seen we've seen demand subside or pullback for to be built as well as specs.
But on a relative basis there is more.
Ability to get buyers across the finish line.
When we've got homes that are within kind of a 30 to 90 day delivery window. So.
A portion of <unk>, where we're starting more specs relative to dirt sales compared to historical norms. That's a mouthful there so.
On an absolute basis, it's less.
Across the board on a relative basis, we're doing more specs compared to.
Dirt sales when you think about historical norms.
So Alan.
I think the best way <unk> described as we got one foot on the gas and we got one foot on the break we are managing this very aggressively.
We want to have inventory.
That is available the last thing we want to do is put ourselves into the penalty box by having too many finished specs.
Okay got it that makes sense and obviously with cancellations normalizing theres, probably some unintentional specs that come out of that as well.
On that point.
You mentioned that you are up to this point have been able to resell those cancellations pretty easily.
Curious whats the margin differential on those resales compared to what you thought the margin was going to be based on the initial sale in backlog versus where it's likely going to settle out at once you deliver the hallmark.
Now thats been resold.
Yeah, it's interesting Alan.
The reality is that most of the cancellations are pretty fresh right. It's usually in the first 30 or 60 days, where either somebody can't get financing or has buyer remorse and if you look at the.
The body of cancellations that we had in this quarter, we didn't see a big uptick in the number that we're financing related it was more buyer remorse.
And so we haven't seen a big change in the margin profile for the folks that were in the backlog for a long time. So they may have signed their contract.
Late in 2021.
Honestly.
They just can't get financing for whatever reason.
When we're reselling those homes, we actually see higher prices.
And again, that's not the majority of its most of the churn is earlier in the backlog.
So not a huge differential because pricing hasn't moved that much in the 30 to 60 days since people signed the contract.
Got it that makes sense I appreciate it guys. Thanks a lot.
Thanks, Kevin.
The next question is from John Lovallo with UBS. Your line is open.
Good morning, guys and thank you for taking my questions. Ryan I think I heard you say something when I found very interesting I just want to make sure I heard it correctly, but I.
I think you said that as rates have sort of settled here a bit that the ability to sell has improved so I wanted to make sure that I heard that correctly and I wanted to kind of get your thoughts on.
<unk> been through this many times before do you see this being.
Time of a prolonged sort of slowdown.
Or do you think that this is something that's kind of more of a pause in that once rates do settle I mean, who knows what theyre going to sell a higher or lower but once they do finally settled I mean do you think that we're going to be back sort of on track again.
Yes, John .
I'm going to probably stop short of trying to prognosticate and forecast what the future will hold.
But I will tell you and we said it in our prepared remarks, we are long term very constructive on housing we have a fundamental shortage of housing in this country.
And I believe that as the fed navigates this tricky situation.
<unk>.
40 year record high inflation and all the stimulus money.
And supply chain issues and all the things that have kind of that are going into our current economic environment.
I do believe that housing will continue to have a very strong run so.
<unk>.
With that mindset that we're running our company, we're making decisions on how we invest that we're making.
Decisions on on how we.
Allocate capital et cetera, So I.
I think as we move forward maybe in the medium term.
The combination of affordability and consumer confidence.
Is going to continue to drive kind of what happens with housing we are seeing incomes go up.
So.
Somewhere in the middle of all of that soup I would like to believe that.
Over the long pole housing continues to be successful.
Yes, you're probably a little bit of a dead cat bounce John .
I think.
It was really tough following the last fed meeting I think we saw the consumer react quickly.
And then as I think the consumer has.
Come to terms with that as well as we've seen rates.
Actually come down.
I think there has been a positive.
A positive trend in our sales offices. So there is a lot out there as I think we've said.
Both financially and psychologically and I think the consumer is trying to deal with all of those things.
Got you and then.
Kind of Dovetailing off of what Alan asked I believe.
The strategic decision towards more specs kind of target. The first time buyer and the quick move in makes a lot of sense in this environment I guess, how far how far are you guys willing to shift here and then how quickly could you actually pivoted back if we saw some stabilization.
Yes, it's it is not just the first time buyer will be starting specs across the spectrum.
And in terms of pivoting back it it can be.
Quickly.
That is a decision as.
It's really just how many homes, we want to start and how much demand. There is so if there is.
A leveling out of the market such that demand is pretty consistent we can.
Pivot back, particularly for that move up and active adult buyer, where we think the real value of the build to order model is.
<unk>.
Very quickly.
Okay. Thank you guys.
Yes.
The next question is from Mike Rehaut with Jpmorgan. Your line is open.
Thanks Zack.
Morning, everyone. I appreciate you taking my questions.
First I just wanted to circle back to some earlier comments around.
The increase in incentives, but also kind of highlighting some of the.
Decrease in some of the input costs you highlighted lumbar, obviously, where you said maybe 10000 home.
Copper or some other materials.
As you think about the increase of specs today.
Maybe going up.
Call. It 150 basis points lumber itself with 10000 on 501000 plus room, that's also perhaps 150 basis points.
As you look out and you just kind of considering those factors.
Of themselves because obviously there are a lot of other variables.
Does that kind of point to potentially.
First half gross margins holding.
<unk> levels or are there other factors that we should be considering as well.
Hey, Mike I think it's I think it's too soon for that honestly.
We've obviously given.
Our Q3 margin guide and our full year margin guide.
We've got a big backlog and so we've got good visibility into what that margin profile looks like and then we have.
Certainly made an estimate on the specs that will sell and close between now and the end of the year, but we will give our 2023 margin guide.
Later in the year.
Okay, Alright fair enough.
Secondly.
Obviously got a few questions about your spec strategy.
I think overall.
Would you still be fair to consider you guys.
Dominantly a built to order builder just wanted to clarify, though when you talk about you had said earlier that.
They are still down on an absolute basis, but you're trying to raise.
Or increase.
The percentage.
If I heard it correctly.
Got that.
Percentage.
That you are currently adding that youre trying to increase is more trying to get back to a normalized target even within your build to order model or am I might not thinking about that right and perhaps you're stretching the limits.
Where you would normally be in pushing a little bit of a higher level of spec on a relative.
Percent of.
Percent of closings basis.
Yes, Mike I think that's right. We're we're at 30% today. So we're at the high side of what our historical ranges Youll, probably see us push a little bit behind that but beyond that but it's not as if we're going to go to 70% spec production. So I think youll see us predominantly stay a built to order builder.
Thats, what we believe that's the right way to run a homebuilder for us.
Based on the consumers that we target and the way, we do communities, but yes, youre going to see a stretch a little beyond maybe what our normal ranges.
Bob highlighted that by design, we normally have more specs in our centex communities, which are targeted to the first time buyer.
Youll see us put more spec inventory than what we normally do into our move up in our active adult communities.
But on a.
Yes.
It'll be a little bit more than normal.
Alright, Thank you very much.
Our final question for today is from Anthony Pettinari with Citigroup. Your line is open.
Hi, This is Ashley on for Anthony Thanks for squeezing me in.
I just wanted to know.
Interest rates stay roughly where they are now should we expect sort of an elevated cancellation rates persist into <unk> or maybe it drops back down more rapidly than sort of sticker shock wears off and.
Are you seeing elevated cancellation rates on the homes youre selling in July .
Yes, so I think as Bob highlighted.
The uptick that we've seen in Cancelations has really been in the last 30 to 60 days.
The probably the leading drivers when buyers are more so.
I think.
Big part of that comes from buyers that were caught.
They made a buying decision during the run up in interest rates and as interest rates and <unk>.
Talk of recession have increased.
They are buyers remorse has also increased or their fears increased with it so I think as we get to.
Stability and predictability, we will likely see we should see that drop.
Our expectation would be that cancellation rates ought to more come into a normal range.
Great. Thanks, and then.
And correct me on the call you kind of kept your community count guidance unchanged from last quarter and so just.
If I'm understanding correctly a slowdown in sales.
And I would normalize for community Closeouts, and maybe like a higher community count such as the reason for the unchanged guide, maybe a deliberate slowdown in community openings or maybe some incremental horizontal development challenges like for example, permitting.
Yes, obviously, we are dealing with the same kind of challenges everybody else's. So it takes things a little bit longer.
To get open.
I would tell you that.
Closeout the impact isn't that great of stuff that didn't close that we thought was going to so.
This is pretty much where we thought we would be.
Reflective of a challenging market to get things open.
Okay, great. Thanks, that's very helpful. Thanks for taking my question.
Yes.
That concludes our question and answer session I'll turn it over to Jim zoom or for any closing remarks.
I appreciate everybody's time this morning, I'll certainly be available over the course of the day for any follow up questions.
Good day, and we'll look forward to speaking with you on the next call.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating you may now disconnect.
Okay.
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