Q2 2022 Weyerhaeuser Co Earnings Call
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Greetings and welcome to the Weyerhaeuser second quarter 2022 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. After the Speakers' remarks, there'll be a question and answer session to ask a question. During the session you will need to press star one on your telephone keypad comps.
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As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host anti Taylor Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. Mr. Taylor you may begin.
Thank you Rob good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss weyerhaeuser's second quarter 2022 earnings this call is being webcast at www Dot Weyerhaeuser dotcom.
Our earnings release and presentation materials can also be found on our website.
Please review the warning statements in our press release and on the presentation slides concerning the risks associated with forward looking statements as forward looking statements will be made during this conference call.
We will discuss non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of GAAP can be found in the earnings materials on our website.
On the call. This morning are Devin Stockfish, Chief Executive Officer and <unk>.
Baby World Chief Financial Officer, I will now turn the call over to Devin Stockfish.
Thanks, Andy.
Morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today I'm very pleased to welcome David Walt did the call Dave He became our Chief financial Officer in May he.
He previously served as our Chief Accounting Officer, and brings 20 years of significant accounting financial and strategic acumen to the CFO role. He has demonstrated outstanding leadership since joining weyerhaeuser in 2013, and I'm excited to have David on our senior leadership team and to partner with them as we execute on our long term strategy.
This morning, Weyerhaeuser reported second quarter, GAAP earnings of $788 million or $1.06 per diluted share on net sales of $3 billion adjusted EBITDAR totaled $1 $2 billion in the second quarter.
We delivered strong results across each of our businesses and I'd like to thank our teams for their exceptional work and continued focus as we continue to navigate dynamic market conditions.
Through their collective efforts, we've generated year to date adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 billion, our strongest first half EBITDA rep results on record.
Turning now to our second quarter business results I'll begin the discussion with timberlands on pages six through nine of our earnings slides Tim.
Timberlands contributed $153 million to second quarter earnings adjusted EBITDA totaled $219 million, a decrease of $28 million from the prior quarter in.
In the west adjusted EBITDA decreased by $21 million compared to the first quarter.
Western domestic log markets softened slightly in the second quarter as mill inventories recovered at the outset of the quarter and lumber prices declined considerably from elevated levels earlier in the year as a result, our second quarter domestic log sales realizations were moderately lower compared to the first quarter, but remain high relative to historical pre.
<unk> levels.
Well log supply in the western system was ample at the outset of the quarter. It became constrained by unseasonably wet weather as the quarter progressed, which drove mill inventories to below target levels by quarter and particularly in Oregon. These.
These adverse weather conditions resulted in a moderate reduction in our fee harvest volumes compared to the first quarter.
Forestry and road costs were seasonally higher and per unit log and haul costs increased significantly in the second quarter as we transitioned into higher elevation logging units.
Turning to our export markets in Japan demand for our logs remained strong in the second quarter lumber.
Lumber imports from Europe into Japan continued to be restricted by ongoing global shipping challenges for most of the quarter.
This dynamic continued to drive increased market share for our customers and robust demand for our logs as a result, our Japanese sales realizations were moderately higher compared to the first quarter, our sales volumes increased significantly resulting from strong demand and timing of ships.
In China log inventories at the ports declined slightly in the second quarter, resulting from improved takeaway as pandemic related lockdowns started to ease.
Imports of lumber and logs into China continued to be limited by global logistical challenges and port congestion.
Additionally, log supply into China continues to be impacted by restrictions on Australia and logs, Russia as recent ban of log exports to China and disruptions of European wood flowing flow, resulting from the Russia, you can't recreate Ukraine conflict.
As a result demand for our western logs remained favorable in the quarter and our sales realizations for China export logs increased moderately.
Our sales volumes to China, However decreased significantly as we continue to intentionally shift volume to the domestic market to support our domestic customers and capitalize on favorable margin opportunities.
Moving to the south.
Southern Timberlands, adjusted EBITDA decreased by $5 million compared to the first quarter.
Notwithstanding weakening lumber and OSB pricing and a seasonal increase in log supply southern saw log markets remained favorable during the second quarter as mills maintained elevated inventories to mitigate risks from ongoing transportation challenges.
Fiber markets experienced a similar dynamic as a result, our sales realizations increased slightly compared to the first quarter.
Our fee harvest volumes were moderately higher seasonal weather patterns transitioned to drier conditions.
Forestry and road costs were seasonally higher and per unit log and haul costs increased significantly primarily for fuel related costs.
Turning to our southern export business, our log exports to China remained temporarily paused due to the new Phyto sanitary regulations on pine logs put in place last year by Chinese regulators, we remain optimistic that this headwind for pine exports to China will be transitory and still maintain a constructive longer term.
Outlet for our southern export business to that market.
In the meantime, we continue to redirect logs to domestic mills in the U S South and look to grow our India export market.
In the north adjusted EBITDA decreased by $2 million compared to the first quarter due to significantly lower sales volumes associated with seasonal spring breakup conditions, partially offset by significantly higher sales realizations for most products.
Turning to real estate energy and natural resources on pages 10 and 11.
Real estate and Ian are contributed $65 million to second quarter earnings and $107 million to adjusted EBITDA.
Second quarter, adjusted EBITDA was $9 million lower than the first quarter, primarily due to the timing and mix of properties sold.
But with $16 million higher than a year ago quarter.
Notwithstanding the recent macroeconomic headwinds we continue to capitalize on favorable demand for H B U properties as buyers seek the safety of hard assets in an inflationary environment, resulting in high value transactions with significant premiums to timber value.
Now for a brief comment on natural climate solutions.
Following our announced agreement with Oxy low carbon ventures in March for our first carbon capture and storage project in Louisiana, We continue to advance discussions with high quality developers as this market continues to emerge.
Additionally, we continue to make progress on our forests carbon pilot project in Maine and are working towards project approval by year end.
Moving to wood products on pages 12 through 14.
Wood products contributed $863 million to second quarter earnings of $912 of adjusted EBITDA.
Compared to the first quarter adjusted EBITDA decreased by $321 million as lumber and OSB prices declined considerably from elevated levels earlier in the year.
These are outstanding results, considering the ongoing supply chain headwinds faced by our teams in the second quarter.
Starting with the lumber and OSB markets.
Benchmark lumber and OSB prices entered the second quarter on a downward trajectory as demand for homebuilding and repair and remodel soften and buyers remained lean inventories given uncertainty in the markets.
Despite lean inventories throughout the channel sentiment was cautious as buyers SaaS downside risk of elevated price levels and were reluctant to build inventories and a dynamic pricing environment.
By late April benchmark pricing for both products stabilized as buyers took steps to replenish inventories to prepare for the spring building season and in response to strong April housing starts data.
This dynamic continued through mid May at which point buyer sentiment once again turned cautious resulting from rapidly rising mortgage rates housing affordability concerns and the prospects of a possible recession.
This drove benchmark prices downward through late June before stabilizing at the end of the quarter as buyers reentered the market to bolster lean inventories despite.
The substantial reduction in lumber and OSB prices during the quarter benchmark prices for both products remained elevated compared to pre pandemic historical averages.
Adjusted EBITDA for our lumber business decreased by $289 million compared to the first quarter. Our average sales realizations decreased by 25% in the second quarter, while the framing lumber composite pricing decreased by 32% or.
Our sales volumes increased significantly due to seasonal inventory drawdowns and improve production.
Log costs increased slightly primarily for Canadian and southern logs and unit manufacturing costs were slightly higher during the quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA for our OSB business decreased by $60 million compared to the first quarter.
Our average sales realizations decreased by 14% in the second quarter, while the OSB composite pricing decreased by 34%.
This relative outperformance was largely a result of order files that lag rapidly declining OSB prices.
Our sales volumes increased slightly resulting from improved production.
Unit manufacturing costs were moderately higher in the quarter and fiber costs were comparable.
Engineered wood products adjusted EBITDA increased by $37 million compared to the first quarter and established a new quarterly EBITDA record.
Sales realizations were significantly higher for most products and we continue to benefit from previously announced price increases for solid section and I joists products.
This was partially offset by significantly higher raw material costs, primarily for OSB web stock.
Production volumes were significantly higher for most products is veneer supply improved as a result sales volumes increased for most products in the second quarter.
In distribution adjusted EBITDA decreased by $24 million compared to the first quarter, primarily due to lower margins, resulting from the commodity price correction the.
The distribution team did a terrific job in managing inventories in this dynamic pricing environment.
With that I'll turn the call over to David to discuss some financial items and our third quarter outlook.
Thank you Devin and good morning, everyone. It's a pleasure to be speaking with you all today and an honor to be serving as the CFO during such an exciting time in our company's history I look forward to capitalizing on the opportunities in front of us and working with our incredible teams to continue driving growth for our businesses and superior long term value for our shareholders.
This morning, I will be covering key financial items, and second quarter financial performance before moving into our third quarter outlook.
I'll begin with key financial items, which are summarized on page 16.
We generated over $1.1 billion of cash from operations in the second quarter and more than $2.1 billion year to date.
This represents our highest first half operating cash flow on record surpassing the previous record established just last year.
We ended the quarter with approximately $1.7 billion of cash and cash equivalents and total debt of just over $5 billion.
Capital expenditures for the quarter were $81 million, which is a typical level for the second quarter.
We returned $138 million to shareholders through share repurchase activity.
These shares were repurchased at an average price of $36.23 and as of quarter end, we had approximately $670 million of remaining capacity under our $1 billion share repurchase program. We will continue to leverage our flexible cash return framework and look to repurchase shares opportunistically.
We also returned $134 million to shareholders through the payment of our quarterly base dividend, which was increased in the first quarter by five 9% to <unk> 18 per share.
Adjusted funds available for distribution for the second quarter totaled $1.1 billion as highlighted on page 18, and we have generated over $1.9 billion of adjusted F. A D year to date as a reminder, we will supplement our base dividends each year with an additional return of cash to achieve the targeted annual pay.
Out of 75% to 80% of adjusted F E D.
As demonstrated in 2020, one we have the flexibility in our refrain work to return this additional cash in the form of a supplemental dividend or a combination of supplemental dividend and opportunistic share repurchase.
Second quarter results for our unallocated items are summarized on page 15, adjusted EBITDA for this segment increased by $66 million compared to the first quarter.
This increase was primarily attributable to an $18 million noncash benefit for the elimination of intersegment profit in inventory and LIFO in the second quarter.
Compared to a $59 million noncash charge in the prior quarter.
The benefit was driven by a decrease in log and lumber inventories from elevated levels at the end of the first quarter.
Key outlook items for the third quarter are presented on page 19.
In our timberlands business, we expect third quarter earnings before special items, and adjusted EBITDA will be lower than the second quarter, but moderately higher than the third quarter of 2021.
Turning to our western Timberlands operations.
Domestic log demand was favorable at the outset of the third quarter, particularly in Oregon as mills sought to bolster inventories prior to wildfire season.
Log supply has improved following a period of unseasonable wet weather in the second quarter and is expected to remain elevated for the majority of the third quarter. As a result, we expect our domestic log sales realizations to be moderately lower than the third quarter absent fire related disruptions in the region.
Forestry and road costs are expected to be seasonally higher and per unit log and haul costs are expected to be lower as fuel prices have decreased we.
We anticipate our he fee harvest volumes will be comparable to the second quarter.
Moving to the export markets in Japan demand for our logs is expected to soften in the third quarter due to a number of factors, including a recent increase of European lumber imports into Japan, and a weakening Japanese housing market as a result, our Japanese log sales realizations are expected to decrease moderately.
From the second quarter and sales volumes are expected to decrease significantly.
In China, although log consumption has improved slightly as pandemic related lockdowns have eased log demand is expected to soften in the third quarter, resulting from elevated log inventories at the ports and a reduction in construction activity during the summer rainy season.
As a result, our sales realizations on log imports into China are expected to be moderately lower compared to the second quarter.
We anticipate our sales volumes will be lower as we continue to flex logs to our domestic customers to capture the highest margin.
In the south log demand in the third quarter is expected to remain stable as the mills continued to mitigate risks from ongoing transportation challenges by maintaining elevated inventories.
As a result, we expect our sales realizations to be comparable to the second quarter.
We anticipate our fee harvest volumes will be moderately higher in the third quarter as weather conditions remain favorable.
Forestry and road costs are expected to be seasonally higher and we anticipate comparable per unit log and haul costs.
In the north sales realizations are expected to be moderately lower due to mix.
Fee harvest volumes are expected to be significantly higher compared to the second quarter as we have fully transitioned from spring breakup conditions.
Yeah.
Turning to real estate energy and natural resources consistent with prior years, we expect our real estate activity will be heavily weighted towards the first half of the year, We expect third quarter earnings and adjusted EBITDA will be slightly lower than the third quarter of 2021 due to a decrease in acres sold year over year.
As Devin mentioned real estate markets have remained strong year to date, and we've capitalized on strong demand and pricing for HBU properties.
As a result, we are revising our guidance for full year 2022, adjusted EBITDA to $325 million, an increase of $25 million from prior guidance.
Additionally, we now expect basis as a percentage of real estate sales to be 30% to 40% for the year.
For our wood products segment, we expect third quarter earnings and adjusted EBITDA will be comparable to the second quarter, excluding the effects of changes in average sales realizations for lumber and oriented Strand Board.
Following a substantial reduction in pricing during the second quarter benchmark prices for lumber and OSB entered the third quarter, having stabilized as buyers reenter the market to bolster lean inventories.
This dynamic continued throughout July resulting in a steady increase in benchmark prices for both products.
As shown on page 21 for both lumber and OSB are current in quarter to date realizations are significantly lower than the second quarter averages.
For our lumber business, we expect comparable sales volumes in the third quarter and moderately lower log costs.
Unit manufacturing costs are expected to be comparable.
For our oriented Strand Board business, we expect slightly lower sales volumes and significantly higher unit manufacturing costs due to planned annual maintenance outages.
Fiber costs are expected to be comparable.
For our engineered wood products business, we expect significantly lower raw material costs, primarily for OSB web stock. We anticipate this will be partially offset by lower sales realizations, primarily for plywood products.
Sales realizations for our solid section and I joists products are expected to be comparable.
Our sales volumes are expected to be comparable to the second quarter and unit manufacturing costs will be slightly higher as a result of planned annual maintenance outages in the third quarter.
For our distribution business, we are expecting adjusted EBITDA to be lower than the second quarter due to lower sales realizations for most products.
I'll wrap up with a few additional comments on our total company financial items, all of which are summarized in our full year 2022 outlook update on page 20.
As a result of the debt refinancing transactions executed in the first quarter. We now expect our full year interest expense to be $275 million or $30 million decrease from prior guidance.
Each year in the second quarter, we finalized prior year end estimates for pension assets and liabilities.
As a result, we recorded a $67 million improvement in our net funded status as well as a reduction in our noncash nonoperating pension and post employment expense.
Finally, we now anticipate our full year outlook for capital expenditures to be $460 million due primarily to the acceleration of equipment orders with extended lead times for future planned capital projects. There is no change to our previously announced multi year guidance of 420 to 400.
And $40 million of annual capital expenditures for 2023 through 2025 with that I'll now turn the call back to Devin and I look forward to your questions.
Thanks, David.
Before wrapping up this morning, I'll make a few comments on the housing and repair and remodel markets.
Second quarter housing starts averaged 1.65 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, a 4% reduction compared to the first quarter. While April housing starts reached the highest monthly level since 2006 activity soften as the quarter progressed housing permits in the second quarter averaged 1.73.
3 million units, a 7% reduction compared to the quarter.
As we look out at the rest of the year, we do expect some softening in residential construction relative to earlier in the year, primarily as a result of the rapid increase in mortgage rates ongoing housing affordability concerns high inflation and concerns over a possible recession.
We've already started seeing impacts from these headwinds with the reduction in new and existing home sales in recent months and through the most recent homebuilder sentiment data.
However, as always context is important.
To that end I would note that we are still expecting housing starts and demand for wood products to be above pre pandemic levels in 2022.
Despite these near term challenges.
Homebuilders have a significant backlog of houses to complete and we expect this backlog will support construction activity in the back half of 2022 and.
And importantly, we remain constructive longer term on housing demand fundamentals given favorable demographic trends are significantly under built housing stock a healthy labor market and solid household balance sheets.
Turning to repair and remodel where activity remained fairly stable quarter over quarter and continued to be supported by favorable demand from the professional segment.
Demand from the do it yourself segment softened slightly in the second quarter as consumer sentiment turned cautious resulting from the recent macro uncertainties that said as the housing market ensures a period of relative softening. This should result in more people remaining in their existing homes and with healthy household balance sheets favorable home equity and in.
Aging housing stock, we continue to expect steady demand from the repair and remodel segment with activity above pre pandemic levels.
In closing our teams are delivering strong operational and financial results.
Year to date, we've generated $2.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $1.9 billion of adjusted funds available for distribution looking forward, we remain constructive on long term demand fundamentals that support our businesses notwithstanding the recent macroeconomic headwinds our financial position is.
<unk> strong and we remain committed to serving our customers and delivering industry, leading operating performance across our businesses. We are very well positioned to navigate these dynamic market conditions and to generate long term value for our shareholders and with that I think we can open it up for questions.
Thank you we will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone keypad.
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For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys, one moment, please while we poll for questions.
My first question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question Hi, Thank you hi, everyone. Good morning, Thanks for the details.
Three questions for me and I'll turn it over and congratulations again, David first off on the acceleration of equipment with extended lead times, just trying to get at what exactly is happening that you're now able to accelerate the it sounds like the deliveries on machinery, where there had been extended lead time.
Thing happening in the supply chain, where that is improving.
Secondly, again related to wood.
Is there anything out of the ordinary with the maintenance Youre doing in OSB in the third quarter.
Talk about what's going to be going on at the mills that we should be aware of if theres any way to sort of quantify what the production loss might be and then lastly can you give us a quick update on Maine, where you stand now with the stage gating in terms of the audits and certification I know you said you wanted to be ready by the end of year, but if you can sort of fill in a little bit more color there.
That'd be great. Thank you guys. Good luck in the quarter.
Yeah, well, thanks, George well first on the Capex really it's just a function of what we're seeing in the market right. Now is extended lead time for pretty much all equipment. So this incremental 20 is just really a reflection of our view you need to get into the queue. So that you can manage efficiently.
These longer term are you know capital projects. So it's really it's not that things are getting better. It's just an acknowledgment that you know that the timeline for getting equipment has it been extended so in order to get in the queue. You can put down your you know your deposits now and that just will make for a more efficient and effective flow of projects over the next 18 to 24.
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On the OSB side, you know really you know nothing to say there other than just you know each OSB mill has you know maintenance that we do it's the typical annual maintenance.
From a dimension standpoint, you know probably five to 10 million are in terms of loss production quarter over quarter.
And then lastly on Maine.
Yeah and on main thanks, So it's progressing as expected are we're working with the third party Certifiers still expect to get it approved by the end of the year. So it's really progressing in accordance with our schedule and we're pleased with we're pleased with the progress.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Yes, Thanks George.
Our next question is from Susan Mcclary with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Thank you and good morning, everyone and let me offer my congrats to Dave as well good to have you on the call.
Thanks to great to be here.
Yeah. My first question is you know obviously housing has been a key topic as well.
Gone through the quarter.
Homebuilders are starting to.
Prepare their businesses I just wanted to guide their businesses to a more normalized sort of pre COVID-19 sales pace for next year.
You were thinking about your business, how it size to that level of activity and where inventories are today and how you are preparing for something like that.
Yeah, well great question.
Obviously, there's a there's been a lot of commentary around what's going on with the housing market. We can get into that in further detail if you'd like but certainly I think we are seeing some slowing as we think about heading into this period of some choppiness in the housing market. You know I think the key takeaway is we've been preparing our business.
For just this situation for a number of years all of the work that we've done around opex and cost control to have industry, leading performance. The work we've done to get the balance sheet are in a really good place the variable dividend structure. All of these things give us a lot of flexibility if we run into a period of <unk>.
Softness now you know our personal view is we'll probably see some softening not sure it's going to last all that long because we still feel pretty good about the underlying fundamentals with.
The under build housing stock and you know all the other things we've been talking about for a number of years, but if we do see a period of softening. We'll continue to operate our business well focus on cost focus on Opex, our innovation to to make sure that we protect our margins as much as possible and serve our customers. So you know, we'll see what happens from a housing standpoint.
But I think where we're really well positioned if we do see some softening.
Okay. I appreciate that and then can you talk a little bit about timberland.
Is that you're seeing there and has anything changed as the macro outlook has perhaps softened a bit in the quarter and how you're thinking about the supply and demand dynamics there.
Yeah, if you're talking about timberland transactions in particular I think the answer is no things really haven't changed we're still seeing very strong demand for timberland transaction I think you've seen that in some of the deals that have been announced lately.
We're seeing very strong pricing for timberland assets I think that's really a function of a few different things you know first of all historically timberlands have been a good place to be in an inflationary environment. So there may be some of that but I think more importantly, there's just a view that the longer term value in timberland asked.
That's is there and you've seen really over the last 12 to 18 months.
The values that people are paying for timberland deals continues to go up and I think that's just a reflection of our interest in the asset class. So you know notwithstanding some of the you know the Choppiness we've seen in some of the uncertainty we've seen in the markets generally that really hasn't flowed through to the timberland transactions.
Okay.
Take one more in which is you did increase the amount of repurchases you did this quarter relative to what you've done in the first quarter and certainly relative to last year.
Talk a bit about your appetite for further repurchases given the valuation today and how youre thinking about the outlook for the business.
Yeah, Sue you bet. This is David.
As we've said in the past, we think about share repurchase as a useful tool to return cash to shareholders under the right circumstances, specifically when we see it as the best option for creating long term shareholder value. So yeah that that increase to our authority of $1 billion last fall that gives us more flexibility to buy back stock when we when we see good opportunities.
There. So we did repurchase 138 million in Q2 at an average price of $36 23 per share and we will continue to look at those opportunities moving forward. We progressed overall bigger picture against that billion dollar authorization, we've done $333 million year to date. So we're excuse me cumulative to date since we announced.
That authorization, so we're making steady progress against that we'll continue to assess those share repurchases along with all the other options we have for cash deployment and we'll report out on that share repurchase activity quarterly.
Great. Thank you and good luck with everything.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Devin if we do go through a period of softer market.
In wood products because of housing what are some of the other factors that you think might make where pricing and profitability for your business.
Stabilize different than maybe what it might have previously beyond that some of these internal measures that you've taken them in particular I'm thinking about high costs in D. C is that going to be a factor do you think in the future being different than what you know five years ago, let's say how things might.
Played out in a in a softer.
Supply demand environment.
Yeah, absolutely Mark and I think you know really so putting aside the cost side, which we've discussed a lot in the past you know on on the sales realization side I do think that when you think about and I'll speak to lumber, particularly here. When you think about where lumber prices go there's there's going to be a.
A different cost structure by geography, and you know we've talked about this a bit in the past, but I do think just the dynamics with fiber availability and how that's impacted the cost structure in British Columbia, I think what that means is for a pretty significant.
Percentage of the overall lumber capacity in North America.
When you get below a certain price level, it's going to be pretty hard for a lot of the mills to be cash flow positive now whether that's you know 550, whether that's 600, you know theres. Some debate there we certainly don't have visibility into our competitors cost structure, but we do have a mill.
In British Columbia that we think is a top quartile cost mill. So we do have some view on that and I think you know relative to what's going on across North America. The B C cost structure is going to play into that and likely keep lumber prices are in terms of our floor higher than they've been historically and.
And so I think that's you know that's going to be reflected in terms of severe thea that'll be the biggest in terms of some other issues.
Issues at play obviously from a wood construction standpoint, our industry is always looking to increase the share of wood in building and so even beyond single family residential whether you're talking multiyear tollywood buildings. That's something we continue to look at you know a little bit around the margins with infrastructure.
So you know there may be some other things at play that make this look a little different than the last time, we had a dip in the market.
Okay, and kind of a maybe a small question, but so I see him he's going to be launching a new futures contract.
Does that is that going to matter for your business at all do you think and and also why might there not be anything for for southern pine.
Yeah, Mark we're aware of the new contract that's being rolled out we will keep an eye on it as it's introduced although we monitor the futures market. It's not something we've used extensively given our business objectives and the volumes that have historically been traded there and to your point on the specie is involved it's possible the new contract may provide a little more vol.
Human the liquidity in the market there may be a scenario, where we'd have some used for the new contract in targeted transactions, but it's not something we would anticipate using broadly at this point.
And on the southern yellow Pine point, Mark I do think that's going to be down the road. They have talked about you know thinking about that they're just kind of they're doing this one first and they'll look at southern yellow pine down the road.
Okay I'll turn it over thank you.
Thanks Mark.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Rocklin with true with Securities. Please proceed with your question.
Thanks very much.
D D. Andy Thanks for taking the question.
Yes, good morning.
Good morning.
Just wanted to essentially is what you see in your order books at present, especially in wood products, specifically any shortening less committed orders more spot purchases and the reason I'm asking is again goes back to homebuilding you've seen a notable pick up in the homebuilder cancellation rates.
And as a result of that you also said you're seeing more spec homes.
Any place in the market liabilities just wanted to loop products I'm wondering if what the homebuilders are seeing was actually tricky trickling into your.
Your order books are present for wood products.
Yeah, we haven't really seen it happen yet in fact, you know on the OSB side I'd say, our order files are pretty much normal AR on the lumber side actually our order books are a little elevated relative to normal so a little longer on the lumber side.
And on the AWP side, we're still on full allocation. So we really haven't seen that translate into our our order files are and you know.
Frankly, I think part of that too is just inventories across channel are pretty lean and so theres still building going on and people need product are there theyre just not carrying much inventory. So there's a need to cover short term requirements at present.
Got you and how far do we typically at the order books.
There was a line of sight.
Yeah, you know on OSB normals in the range of two to four weeks on the lumber side, it's usually one to two weeks and you know like I said on the lumber side, we're probably on the high end of that a little north of that and.
They said he AWP is you know that's that's on allocation. So it's a little different story there.
Got you no I appreciate that thank you.
One just quick follow up.
Question, just wondering if you could help us frame, how you're thinking about harvests and a slowing housing demand environment than we're thinking about the great recession. Nothing we're headed there was during the great recession, if I recall correctly weyerhaeuser reduced harvest by over 30%.
2009, 2010 timeframe appears good something similar.
And as a result, you know post great recession, you had a very slowly improving housing environment and long story short you're dealing with a situation that yourself that exist today, where timber there's excess timber on the stump.
Still hasn't been worked through full year, just given the harvest deferrals that occurred during that period of time. So I'm wondering if you can help us think about if we do get into a recession and we work with.
Right now we're in a recession based on GDP numbers yesterday.
Get to even more severe.
Are you planning to harvest to avoid a repeat of what happened during the great recession.
Yeah. So a couple of comments I would offer on that I, you know I think first of all.
No not that our crystal ball is perfect, but we're we're not expecting anything close to the great recession.
And any sort of normal recessionary environment I wouldn't anticipate our harvest level is really changing much we have an integrated model. So you know we have our internal mill customers, we manage our harvest levels to stay at sustainable levels, you know over time so.
In a in a normal run of the mill recession, I wouldn't anticipate that really impacting our harvest levels. Now obviously, if we have a great recession type of event, which again seems pretty unlikely to us than you know of course, we're going to we're going to dial in our our harvest levels to match that supply to demand.
But particularly given the dynamic with all of the new mills coming into the U S. South are ultimately even if markets are soft in the U S. South is a place where you make money really almost under any lumber pricing scenario. So southern mills are going to run. So I don't really have a whole lot of concern.
About you know really reducing harvest levels in the south.
Absent something really really significant.
Got it. Thank you good luck in the quarter.
Thank you.
Okay.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Kurt Yinger with D. A Davidson. Please proceed with your question.
Great. Thanks, and good morning, everyone.
Good morning.
Wanted to start off on western log prices I mean, historically at least the domestic market has been fairly correlated with lumber.
And you talked a bit about how you expect I guess realizations to come in a bit during Q3, but I'm, hoping you could maybe talk a little bit more about into 2023, if we were to see lumber prices stable around stabilized around current levels.
Whether you would think there might be a little bit more downside in and how I guess, what you're seeing in the export market factors into that as well.
Yeah, well great. Great question I think the answer is really it it depends on a number of different factors. There is no question that in the West you do see a stronger correlation between log prices and lumber prices. Obviously, a saw mill is not going to pay a log price that causes them to go cash negative.
So there is definitely a correlation between log prices and lumber prices, but there are two other dynamics at play that also weigh in on that and you know one of which is just the very.
Tight supply demand dynamic that's going on in the west there's it's a highly tension wood basket.
So typically you're going to see log prices stay pretty close to that level, where mills can still make some profit.
And the other piece as you mentioned is just the export market that is a big market for us we send a fair number of logs over to you the Japan market and depending on domestic conditions also to China. So those three things really work in unison to set log prices. So the way I would think about it as we roll into two.
<unk> 'twenty 'twenty three regardless of what's going on in the economy, It's still gonna be attention wood basket, we still anticipate having good demand from our export customers.
And so I think the way it will play out is you'll see log prices stay as strong as they can to still allow mills to make some level of profit. So we're still expecting a good solid market in 2023, even if you do see a you know a little bit of a softening in the economy.
Got it Okay. That's helpful. And then for my second question I mean, the contributions from the AWP business have been really exceptional over the last couple of quarters and I guess as well.
You kind of look out there's a number of different cross currents there right.
Man being heavily dependent on new construction.
But the supply side at least right now is still very very tight.
Commodity prices have been quite volatile, but AWP prices are.
So you have made some significant gains over the last two years. So hoping you could just talk a bit about how you think about the prospects for that business into 2023.
Yeah, well you know first just a shout out to our AWP team, they're doing just a remarkable job running that business. It's been a really good run you.
You know we've had a lot of demand for AWP products and so that's really translated into two great profitability in that business.
As we look forward, you're absolutely right that product line is is much more a tailored to single family and so to the extent you see some softening there clearly that will have some impact, but I do think just for perspective.
That is a market where the supply of AWP has been pretty short and that's resulted in in a lot of shortages for our homebuilder customers and so you know to some level or to some extent you know, there's a little bit of <unk>.
Of room, just to catch up to have that supply meet demand. Even if you see single family ticked down a little bit. The other thing I would just mention is you know during this period, where there's been such a shortage of engineered wood products you have seen builders converting into you know a two by 10 to you by 12 <unk>.
Open open web and so theres still some opportunity for AWP.
If housing softens a bit to go take some of that market share back. So you know absolutely. It is tied to single family, but I think even even with a softening housing environment AWP business is still going to be pretty strong in 2023.
Got it okay, well, hey, I appreciate all the color and good luck here in the coming quarter.
Alright, thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Quinn with RBC capital markets. Please proceed with your question.
Yeah. Thanks, very much just a couple of questions just a you know.
And welcome welcome aboard Debbie that just said Devin just yet performance of wood products. The last couple of years here is there any issues around around your REIT.
Your REIT tests.
Now we're a we're in full compliance expect to remain in full compliance so no no issues from a REIT standpoint.
Okay, and then back to the Investor day in 'twenty one.
Nick.
Wanted to grow year lumber production by 5% annually is that going to happen in 2022 here.
Yeah, we are going to we are going to grow our organic lumber production in in 'twenty 'twenty. Two you know I think our latest estimate is we'll be somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 billion board feet of production and so that's you know that's along the path that we have to to getting that 5% per year annual target.
Target you know I will say you know, we've got a little bit of catching up to do just because particularly in the early part of the year with all the COVID-19 disruptions et cetera.
Probably lost a little bit of production, but you know, we're we're well on the way to meet that target over the multiyear period.
Okay, and then what what really needs to happen to accelerate and fully develop your natural climate solutions.
Initiative.
Yeah, a couple of things you know I mean, one of them is just time you know a lot of these efforts take time to develop whether its the carbon capture and storage business. We feel really really good about the long term prospects, but you know it takes time to get those signed up get the infrastructure built et cetera. Similarly, with with the you know the.
Forest carbon business solar we're signing up lots of solar deals, but those take.
Several years to get up and running and connected into the grid. So part of it is just time and I think part of it is you know we do need to see the pricing develop you know I'll give you. The example of a forest carbon pricing that's been bouncing around between 10 and $15 per ton you know, we we do think that's going to increase over time.
But clearly if we're going to if we're going to flex some of our our forestry into carbon markets from our historical timber markets that has to be margin positive. So you need to see that pricing come up I do think there's a piece of it. That's you know regulatory in nature and so just for example, the current bill that's a you know that.
That's being looked at in a in Congress right now does have some provisions that would help accelerate that whether it's you know the increased tax credit from 45, Q to help with carbon capture and storage direct air capture whether it's you know additional support for building out wind and solar you know those things are.
Ultimately you're going to happen, regardless, but I think certainly you know some some support there from a regulatory standpoint can help accelerate that but I feel really good about the work. The team is doing just a tremendous job across the board whether its wind solar carbon capture and storage mitigation banking across the board are Russell and his team are.
Building out that organization and making some really good progress.
Yes.
Great. Thanks, very much best of luck.
Alright. Thank you thanks, Bob.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Wilde with Bank of Montreal. Please proceed with your question.
Good morning, Devin good morning, David.
Good morning, Mark.
Just first of all kind of curious for both of you with it sounded to me this morning like.
You may be toggling, a little more toward kind of the potential for share repurchase activity or perhaps you know in light of kind of.
Perspective weakness in the housing market.
And and share prices is that fair. It just seemed like you you put more emphasis on that this morning than I have ever heard of the past.
Yeah, Mark I mean, you know again, all I'll say, we look at share repurchases a useful tool in the right circumstance. So we're fortunate to have a lot of levers whether it be M&A investing in the business paying down debt based in variable dividend payments, we think share repurchase can be an important element of our capital allocation mix a lot.
It is going to depend on our ability to to look at that acquisition target and in the patients that will need as we are disciplined as we pursue those timberland acquisitions and evaluating all the all the options that are available to us to create shareholder value over time.
David well put a little color on just the.
The process that you go through as you think about sort of the value of your stock versus going out and trying to find incremental you know timberland market.
Sure Yeah, I mean, as you'd expect we've got a view on the intrinsic value of the company and that's informed by a number of factors, it's but importantly, it's based on our long term view of the company. So so we've got some thoughts on that that we look at and we're always evaluating all the opportunities available to us and it's going to depend on the <unk>.
And circumstances that are in place at the time and in the opportunities that are available to us, but we'll continue to be disciplined and and all of those options and weighing them opportunistically.
Okay, and then also I guess kind of related to this whole question you're right. It appears to me.
That's sort of the increased focus on ESG has brought down the discount rates that people are using and looking at timberland transactions.
I Wonder if you agree with that based on what you've seen over the last three to five years in the timberland market and then if you could just give us some sense of what you think others might be using in terms of discount rate whats implied in what you've seen in timber transaction.
That has not gone out there.
Yeah, Mark So a couple of thoughts here I do think that this view theres, an ESG play embedded within timberlands is playing into discount rates and just the overall interest in the asset class and you can see that around the margin certainly with some of the.
Private equity like capital that's coming into the space you know you C. J P. Morgan buying Campbell, you know things of that nature. I think are very much related to U S. G carbon natural climate solutions those kinds of opportunities you know the thing that makes it hard to really quantify the impact of.
That on discount rates is you're also seeing money come in from all over the globe, where the discount rates people look for in Europe are a little different maybe than you would think in the U S. So some of that gets a little muddied, but I think you're absolutely right directionally that ESG has lowered the discount rates people are using.
In terms of giving you. The range you know I I would still say kind of four and a half to five and a half is.
Normal, but that being said, we've certainly seen some transactions lately at least from our math that seem to be pushing those discount rates you know quite a bit further and particularly when you see some nontraditional type buyers come into the market you know some of those discount rates can get a really low. So I think you are seeing on balanced discount rates.
Go down a bit in some of the transactions we've seen lately.
Okay, and then just finally real quickly Devon.
The last 456 quarters, and AWP pricing like nothing I've ever seen before them at effectively just look at Europe .
Ah graph. This morning, I mean, the price of I joist it looks like it's essentially doubled in about a year and a half years.
Can you talk about how you think about the stickiness of those prices if we see residential housing.
Housing activities slowdown.
Yeah, well, Mark I'm, probably not going to speculate on future pricing, but I will offer just a couple of directional comments on that you know I think the the big reason why you've seen this pricing dynamic is in a reasonably strong demand environment. There's just not enough E. W. P supply to go around and so you take that.
That coupled with the fact that some of the input costs for AWP. So think OSB web stock resident in some of these other input costs have also gone up quite a bit you know that's really just translated into a very strong pricing environment and you know as I mentioned earlier, we're still on allocation across all of our products now obviously as we go forward.
You know this product feeds primarily into single family, Although I will say just as an aside I do think there's lots of opportunity for AWP to find market share in commercial multifamily you know some of the other focus on C. L. T that kind of thing there's there's more market.
Acuity for AWP, but even just the single family if that goes down you know the supply and demand dynamics will play out and in and impact pricing, but the underlying issue of EW P being and in relatively short supply unless you saw housing just fall off a cliff I think that's more or less still going to be the case going forward.
Okay very good I'll turn it over thanks, Devin alright.
Alright, Thanks Mark.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Buck Horne with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
Hey, Thanks for the time appreciate you squeezing me in.
Theres just continue to be a things like announcement after announcement about more expansions and new sawmill capacity coming into the U S South and some of which certainly have some pretty big price tags associated with that you know when you think about the capacity per thousand board feet seems like there's a really.
A big disconnect right now in terms of how the private market is viewing valuations for U S. South sawmill capacity versus kind of what's implied in the public market right. Now do you think that presents any opportunities for M&A or industry consolidation going forward.
Yeah, well you know I think I would agree with with the disconnect. I think part of that has just been you know in the public markets. If you're trying to figure out you know what mid cycle pricing looks like that's been really challenging with the volatility across most of the wood products business and I think that has led.
Two a bit of a disconnect between you know that that valuation, but you know in terms of opportunities well I think absolutely whenever there's a disconnect in the value underlying value and then and then you know the way the market's otherwise seeing it and certainly there there can be opportunities for us.
M&A and you know frankly, if we do see a little bit of a downturn you know those are oftentimes the opportunities to do the best deals when you see those big value disconnect. So certainly.
Certainly that's something you know I think everybody is watching for as we progress into the next 12 to 18 months.
Okay. I appreciate those thoughts lastly, just for me fire related risks. This year has the wet weather out west really mitigated the.
The impact for fire risk this year, how do you think.
That may shape up as we move through the summer.
Yeah, certainly to date, that's been the case it was a very wet spring and summer didn't really start in the northwest until July 5th or six so I think that's really put us in a position where you know from a fire risk standpoint standing here at the end of July we're in pretty good shape.
As always I would just say you know that can change and so we will do what we always do which is you know monitor this closely we've had a pretty good track record of managing fire across our ownership. So we'll we'll stay on high alert, but as of today, it's definitely at a lower risk than it would ordinarily be this time of summer.
Great I appreciate that congratulations thanks.
Alright, Thanks, Bob.
We have reached the end of the question and answer session. At this time I'd like to turn the call back over to Devin Stockfish for closing comments.
Alright terrific well thanks, everyone for joining us this morning, and thank you for your continued interest in Weyerhaeuser have a great day.
This concludes today's conference you may disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.