Q3 2022 Apollo Global Management Inc Earnings Call
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Thank you Sean.
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Thanks.
For this call.
In today's discussion all callers will be placed in a listen only mode and following management's prepared remarks. The conference call will be open for questions. Please limit yourself to one question then rejoin the queue.
This conference call is being recorded.
On this call May include forward looking statements and projections, which do not guarantee future events or performance. Please refer to apollo's. Most recent SEC filings for risk factors related to these statements.
Apollo will be discussing certain non-GAAP measures on this call, which management believes are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business.
These non-GAAP measures are reconciled to GAAP figures in Apollo's earnings presentation, which is available on the company's website.
So note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Apollo fund.
I would now like to turn the call over to Noah Gunn Global head of Investor Relations.
Thanks, Operator, and welcome again to our call. This morning earlier today, we published our earnings release and financial supplement on the Investor Relations portion of our website for the third quarter, we reported fee related earnings of $365 million, an increase of 14% year over year or <unk> 61 per share and spread.
Related earnings of $578 million or <unk> 96 per share together fee and spread related earnings totaled $943 million or $1 57 per share and in total we reported adjusted net income of $801 million or $1 33.
Our share for the third quarter joining me this morning to discuss our results in further detail, our Marc Rowan CEO , Scott climbing co President and Martin Kelly, CFO and with that I'll turn the call over to Mark.
Thank you Noah good morning Tal.
Apologies in advance for sounding like a losing Texas football coach I will do my best.
I thought where I'd start.
He is really going to start with the macro or the market backdrop.
I have a chart on my office wall.
Traces the movement in the S&P following the 2008 financial crisis. Following the beginning of a tightening in this round by the fed.
They are almost on top of each other that is not to imply that we're going to handle experience the same sort of events.
Followed 2008, but I do believe it is an important comment on market psychology and investor sentiment.
What did we expect would happen when we printed $8 one trillion of the country.
Well exactly what should have happened happened assets almost across the board elevated in price.
Multiples than levels, we had never seen before.
Risk was off.
Everything went up.
Interest rates went down.
Now that we have begun tightening.
We are doing nothing other than resetting to a more normal levels.
We act in the market backdrop is somehow that low interest rates and excess liquidity are the norm.
They are not certainly not over my nearly 40 year career and not over any sort of long term investment cycle.
We have an entire generation.
Of investors investment analysts, who have really grown up just seeing the market bill in one direction and.
And we now all know that goes both ways.
If I just chart what's happened so far this year.
<unk> capital valuations are down 60%, NASDAQ down 30, S&P down nearly 20 Barclays AG down 17.
This is an amazing time for <unk>.
Alternatives, particularly for credit.
Investors have now discovered that everything is correlated to the fendt.
And they are also discovering that most if not all of last decades investment acumen was really nothing other than market data and in some cases nothing other than levered market data.
Over the past decade.
Investors kind of got a free ride there was not much need for alternatives.
As markets moved primarily in one direction.
As an industry alternatives grew tremendously.
When I think about the market backdrop, we are in today.
Alternatives should shine.
After all as an industry, we exist because we produce excess return per unit of risk.
And for the first time in a decade investors are asking not just about the reward but about the risks associated with investments.
Alternatives offer diversification in many instances downside protection.
And an escape from correlation and indexation.
That is the backdrop that I see for our industry.
For us this is a particularly good time.
We did not chase hot out of growth at any price over the past decade.
Our business continues to be guided by three fundamental principles purchase price matters.
Excess return per unit of risk and aligned investing.
As a result.
We are on offense.
Just in Q3, we deployed 37 billion.
175 billion in the last 12 months dry powder now exceeds 50 billion.
We excel in this kind of market.
We are leaning in we are out talking with investors and we're apologizing for nothing.
By and large we did what we were supposed to have done in a period of marks as market access which was avoid potholes.
Scott will take you through some detail of our activity across yield hybrid and equity and in particular, how actively where in the U K as a result of LTI.
The first I believe of many market hiccups.
The proof ultimately of the strength of our franchise shows up in the numbers.
As Noah already mentioned record FRE of $3 65 up 14% year over year.
Record Paulo capital solutions revenues North of $100 million of Martin will take you through record normalized sorry of nearly $600 million of Martin will take you through again.
100 billion of year to date inflows well exceeding the $80 billion target that we put out for all of 2022 at our Investor day.
Last year.
Terms of performance.
Top tier investment performance fund nine gross and net were 40% and 26 direct origination strategies were up 10% year to date.
Our athene alternatives portfolio was up 8% in Q3.
First is nearly 21% down for the S&P 500.
Let me now back up a little bit and talk about the each each of the individual businesses.
Retirement services is generating more volume at higher spreads.
Consumers prefer four and 5% guaranteed yields versus 2% and 3% guarantee deals.
We have nearly $37 billion a year to date inflows.
We expect to exceed 45 billion during fiscal 'twenty, two and it would not surprise me if we got really close to $50 billion the momentum in the business is overwhelming.
Not only is the business. Good we are underwriting new business at really nice spreads, whereas we used to underwrite around 100 to 110 115 basis points. We were 130 basis points in Q3, and I expect the basis points spread to increase going into Q4.
In addition, we are experiencing increasing profitability from our net floating rate position of $30 billion.
This is a strategic portfolio for us.
The decision and the willingness to hold 30 billion of floating rate securities means that we have forgone.
Income that we could have maximized to prior periods in order to set ourselves up with this form of downside protection.
This notion of downside protection not being a quote current period earnings maximize.
Is what allows us to be on offense in markets like this.
Martin will take you through the direct effects of being long 30 billion of floaters.
In a highly increasing rate environment.
The other nice thing about what's happening in the business is on average.
The credit quality of the portfolio is going up market, we have been able to earn these spreads taking less risk rather than more risk.
We've seen minimal impact of capital on capital from rigs migration.
95% of the fixed income assets continue to be investment grade.
And having excess capital, which again is a luxury and our industry.
Laos us to be opportunistic and on offense.
Let me move from retirement services to Apollo asset management.
Simply said, we are on track to exceed targets from last year's Investor Day.
Martin will also give you some insight to what we expect for 2023.
And as you recall, we made three key events, which were driving our asset management business. Howard one was global wealth AUM at the end of five years of $50 billion.
The second was Apollo capital solutions revenue in excess of $500 million again at the end of five years and origination volume of $150 billion annually.
Let me review each of those three bets, but if you intend to tune us out. The shorthand is we're well ahead on all of those three beds.
Global wealth.
This market is actually showing FAA isn't as showing clients that the 60 40 portfolio was not relevant anymore.
I expect and our team expects that 50% of a high net worth individuals portfolio over the next five to 10 years will be alternative.
It will not be alternative in the narrow depth definition of private equity or hedge funds. It will be alternative in the way that we mean alternative which is an alternative to publicly traded stocks and bonds.
In this kind of volatile market, where people are focused on risk reward we are increasing mindshare as an aligned partner.
If you look back and you think about what's transpired so far this year.
Global wealth AUM is up $17 billion.
$8 billion from Griffin, $5 5 billion from <unk> and $3 5 billion from other fund raising initiatives.
$17 billion is great progress on the way to a five year goal 50.
<unk> 50 billion, which I fully expect that we will exceed.
Our positioning in this market is not to be the largest our positioning in this market is to be the most innovative.
Known for.
Purchase price matters excess return per unit of risk and aligned investing the same bargain that we have with our institutional clients is the bargain, we intend to strike with our high net worth clients.
AAA, which I discussed on our last conference call, which is our core equity replacement product think of this as an alternative to S&P 500 exposure.
We're already seeing great early traction we've been approved by three bank platforms with where we expect to launch at the end of this year at the beginning of next year and we see tremendous interest from <unk> family offices in IBD.
We have already seen as I detailed on our last call significant corporate interest.
And just to give you a sense of this portfolio was up on an annualized basis more than 10% against a backdrop of a pretty negative S&P 500.
We have been positive in all three quarters.
In 2022.
This is what we are trying to do is to replicate S&P 500 returns plus a little.
Yet with fixed income like volatility.
On <unk>.
Our Apollo debt solutions vehicle, we were up two 2% in the quarter outperforming investment grade bonds high yield bonds and leveraged loans.
90% of our portfolio.
Has been put to work in 2022.
Very little of the portfolio is exposed to the hotdog period of 2000 22021.
We are on offense in this vehicle.
The same way, we on offense across our business.
<unk>, 99% of this portfolio is first lien, which we continue to believe for high net worth investors and others is the right place to be in an uncertain market with uncertain government backdrop with uncertain inflation expectations.
Uncertainty is not a time not to invest uncertainty as a time to make sure you are getting paid and going in with your eyes wide open as to a range of outcomes.
Further in global wealth, we are seeing continued expansion and you will see us in coming quarters discuss with you what we're doing in Asia Pacific.
But suffice it to say not only are we hiring but we are seeing good leverage out of our <unk> insurance and challenge our relationships in Australia.
<unk> Hong Kong.
Asia and.
In challenger in Australia, where we own minority Stakes involved.
To get from where we are to where we think this market is going to be is going to require time and education.
We view ourselves as innovators in this market for.
For those who are interested to see what we're doing.
Just log onto Apollo Academy.
This is a powerful tool for us to engage audiences allow fas to earn continuing education credits.
And to bring thought leadership and expand the knowledge of what an alternative is to in the investing public. The early engagement is really strong and we continue to receive accolades from our channel partners for all that we are doing to move this market alone.
Apollo capital solutions I'll, just spend a second on.
As an aligned investor, we want 25% of everything in 100% of nothing.
That means we are ideally situated to work with our investors to syndicate and decide cars into managed accounts and other flexible vehicles.
Revenue this quarter was very strong.
We had a goal of $500 million of revenue by 2026, it will likely be north of $400 million of revenue.
2022.
I am very optimistic just like with global wealth, where we like to think we're likely to exceed our $50 billion target.
We are likely to exceed our $500 million revenue target for Apollo capital solutions somehow I got the sense that the leaders of these teams have sandbagged us, but that's all good our job is to execute our plan not to chase the hot out of growth.
Let me now turn to the third and perhaps most important of our key that's origination.
Origination.
If you run a business that is focused on excess return per unit of risk you do not focus on growing AUM you focus on growing your capacity to create investments that provide excess return per unit of risk and you believe as we have seen at AUM will follow that is how in my opinion one generates a.
<unk> revenue long term lasting franchise that investors can trust.
Much of what we do in origination as you will recall is what we call fixed income replacement. Most of this is investment grade.
We are occupying a slightly different space than most of our alternative peers.
And we're occupying it because we think this is the most attractive space and we are advantaged in this particular area and we are at scale.
Currently we own or operate 13 different platforms.
Our platform to us is a way of generating the kinds of investment grade kill the assets that we require to consistently grow our business to feed our growing retirement services and third party credit mandates.
During the quarter, we announced the signing of a framework agreement for the credit Suisse SPG business.
This would be our 14th platform.
We believe that asset backed origination has.
Has the potential to be as large market as corporate credit.
This is a product set that is primarily investment grade.
That fits extraordinarily well into our.
Requirements for both of our retirement services business and the third party business we are building.
We'd give us extra access to flow for more than 200 direct clients and accounts.
Should we close on this transaction, which we believe we will.
This would allow us to be marginally accretive going into 2023.
But strategically very accretive it will be up to us to turn this into a huge success and we are optimistic.
What this business can be in our hands.
Credibly enthusiastic of moving to a quick closing on this transaction.
Having gone through the business, let me now talk a little bit about what we're trying to build in.
And remind.
How we differentiate from most other firms in the alternatives industry.
Our business model is built for the long term.
The vast majority of our capital comes from our yield business.
And the vast majority of our yield business is fixed income replacement.
Fixed income replacement is top of the capital structure senior secured.
And that's where we want to be in uncertain times. It's why we cannot play offense that does not mean, we are not interested in the below investment grade market or direct origination.
It is just not the lion's share of our business.
I stepped back and I think about again our industry index.
Indexation.
Is ramping across fixed income markets equity markets and indexation in correlation its cousin.
Or just a huge source of differentiation for us has an alternative manager to.
The shift from defined benefit defined contribution.
Is another huge source of growth demographics, another huge source of growth.
Something not fully appreciated is the changing role of banks post Dodd Frank.
Many of the fixed income originated assets are the kinds of assets than in prior periods might have ended up on bank balance sheets.
Securitization.
Is now how American banks we.
We estimate that less than 20% of that capital to use businesses and consumers is provided directly by the banking system. The.
The vast majority of capital is provided by all of you.
Through any merit intermediaries like us our peers.
This does not mean, replacing the banks quite frankly, we are now partners with the banks.
You think about what a bank wants for the most part.
Bank once the client.
They can sell the client payments and FX hedging.
M&A and equity and a whole range of services.
We and our peers are not really equipped nor do I believe we will be equipped to offer.
What we want is the asset we want the asset on good terms without fees taken out defense, where we can have a direct look at credit quality credit underwriting to control the documentation pan.
Fixed income replacement I believe to be a vast market, where we are still in early stages of its development and I'm confident.
We can as a firm adhere to excess return per unit of risk while growing our business that is the challenge that I see there is growth everywhere in the alternatives marketplace.
Key is to grow while maintaining the.
Core tenant put an alternative is.
Let me close by saying we're on offense a.
A year ago almost to the day, we laid out a five year plan.
I'm confident that we're going to meet our targets, which we're a more than doubling of earnings by 2026. The three key bets are well underway.
And we have already identified the next level of growth initiatives, whether it's AAA GP LP solutions and more to come the.
The accelerated hiring of the past few years is now behind us.
Now it is our job to focus on simplification.
The entire alternatives industry has gone from a small industry.
Two relatively large industry over a decade.
Much of the industry has grown by adding people.
We know as an industry and as a firm.
To take time to make sure. We are building the systems and operating procedures that will allow us to scale the business and returned to operating leverage make no mistake. It returned to operating leverage is in the cards and we expect that to happen for us as early as 2023.
We've added most recently with our COO edition by Brian's earlier.
And others gives us the confidence that we are well set up to both grow.
And to be efficient in how we grow energy level at the firm is very high so I want to use this opportunity not just to speak to all of you but to thank the team many of whom are listening for the tremendous work. They have done so far in 2022 and with that let me turn the call over to Scott.
Thanks Mark.
Apollo is well known for having the ability to thrive in challenging and complex economic environments.
Over the past decade amid a low interest rate backdrop, we worked hard to source attractive investment opportunities to capture excess returns for our fund investors and retirement services clients, we were measured patient and preparing along the way, but now we've entered into a particularly favorable backdrop for our investing strategy too.
Right.
We're on our front foot in a market that is ripe with opportunities and we're methodically putting capital to work across our platform.
In credit the areas, where we do the majority of our business, which is fixed income replacement senior secured top of the capital structure are still open and the recent market dislocation is creating an abundance of attractive deployment opportunities for those who can invest with size and scale.
We're seeing pre financial crisis pricing frameworks, allowing us to generate higher returns with less credit risk for.
For example, the yield on the Triple C Index, one year ago is now the same as the yield on an investment grade index.
We're buying new issue 10 year corporate paper between six and a quarter in six and three quarters percent and in Sterling. There is single a rated opportunities yielding seven and a quarter to seven 5%.
These attractive high grade assets or finding a home across our platform, particularly at Athene, where the investment portfolio is directly benefiting from rising rates and wider spreads.
In the third quarter, the weighted average yield on total fixed income purchases for athene exceeded the triple B corporate bond index by more than 80 basis points.
In another recent example, our size scale and ability to move quickly allowed us to step in and provide stability to the UK market in response to LDR related for selling at a favorable entry point.
Trading volumes skyrocketed to 800% above average levels when forced selling began and we accounted for about one third of aggregate liquidity supply.
Over this three week period in October our trading desk purchased $1 $1 billion of AAA and double a rated CLO paper yielding over 8%.
Confident that none of our competitors were able to move this swiftly whereby this significantly amid such volatility.
In terms of origination that origination volume totaled $20 billion in the third quarter or approximately a 100 billion over the last 12 months demonstrating the significant scale, we possess and generating attractive proprietary assets.
With less competition in the market, we've increased pricing and tightened the credit box across several of our origination platforms as our financing capabilities are becoming increasingly valuable.
One example of this dynamic is our recent high grade partnership with Air France. This was a unique opportunity to provide one of the world's leading airlines with a custom asset back capital solution to deleverage and improve its borrowing costs.
Apollo leverage cross platform expertise, including aviation asset backed finance and multi asset credit to execute the long term investment of 500 million euros.
In private equity our emphasis on downside protection and purchase price discipline as well as our ability to be flexible across multiple strategies corporate carve outs opportunistic buyouts and distress situations allows us to seek the best risk adjusted return in any market.
In today's environment increased market dislocation is providing many unique opportunities to lean in creating what we expect will be a significant tailwind for the franchise.
We're operating with a pipeline that is three times as large as it was just this time last year and we expect to commit a significant amount of capital in the coming quarters.
The credit markets are more exposed to rising interest rates than ever before and we are diligently preparing for deployment opportunities in distressed debt.
With the supply of sub investment grade debt three times as large as it was during the financial crisis and with suppressed default levels for almost 15 years, we believe many corporates will need to deleverage.
Our financing tools are also proving to be a tremendous differentiator, allowing us to buy companies at attractive values. When most competitors are unable to transact.
This was the case in the recently announced acquisition of Atlas Air through a take private transaction totaling $5 $2 billion. While most banks were effectively shut for business, our new LBO commitments, we worked with our capital solutions team to structure, an anchor a preferred equity tranche, reducing the required debt commitment while enhancing returns.
<unk> and downside protection.
This example is one of many as our ability to deploy capital in this sort of market backdrop is greatly enhanced by our integrated capital solutions business. It's.
Worth highlighting that we have strategically invested in this business over the past year as we previously told you and now have a dedicated team of approximately 40 professionals.
We've worked diligently to align the team with several newer areas of growth across the platform and organize our corporate coverage model across thousands of entrenched relationships.
As Mark noted our investment has begun bearing fruit as we generated record quarterly transaction fees of $105 million in the third quarter of which the vast majority is from capital solutions fees.
This backdrop, we're acting as a market stabilizer, providing liquidity and stress segments of the market and helping our banking partners worked through our backlog of hung deals.
While we acknowledge that transaction fees can be lumpy on a quarterly basis, we're constructive about the strategic progress we've made and remain confident in our team's ability to continue to drive growth.
The robust ecosystem of asset origination capital deployment and market connectivity are crucial components of the excess return that we diligently strive to generate for our clients.
As demonstrated in the third quarter results the core tenants of our investing philosophy.
Purchase price discipline and downside protection are clearly setting us apart.
Public equity market backdrop that was down 5% in the third quarter and 17% over the last 12 months, our private equity portfolio had flat returns I'd appreciated 8% over the same respective periods.
Revenue and EBITDA trends at our funds' portfolio companies are up meaningfully year over year, and Theyre actively managing margin risk by implementing cost saving measures and passing through price increases.
Elsewhere, our hybrid value portfolio continues to perform well appreciating 1% in the third quarter at over 4% year to date.
And our yield strategy, we're really a performing credit investor that looks to make reasonable loans and get paid back.
Our corporate credit and structured credit strategies appreciated 1% in the third quarter, while our direct origination portfolio appreciated over 3% showcasing disciplined credit underwriting and superior security selection.
It seems alternative portfolio generated an 8% annualized return in the third quarter continuing to benefit from the diversified and defensive characteristics that it has exhibited over time within the portfolio origination platforms and strategic retirement service investments returned 12% and 4%.
<unk>.
Well fund investments returned 8% aided by strong performance in real assets and higher cash flows from a few structured deals and our yield funds.
There are several qualities of a themes alternative portfolio that drive resilient performance amid more challenged equity markets, including high current cash flow for our origination platforms structuring of underlying assets to allow for faster pay down in amortization.
A timely redeployment of capital.
These structural quality is create downside protection when public markets are volatile, which is proving increasingly valuable in today's market backdrop.
Moving to our fund raising results third quarter inflows of 34 billion was strong and diversified across our platform.
Asset management inflows totaled 21 billion and included 17 billion from third party fundraising, including fund 10, and our newly launched S. Three platform.
Notably we began third party capital fundraising for our non traded REIT Apollo Realty income solutions or Arris in late September .
As we look to close out the year, we expect another quarter of healthy fundraising, including additional fund <unk> capital as well as the successful equity capital raised for a thorough.
So far we've helped authority raised over 2 billion euros of new common equity capital this year with high visibility to bringing the total to over $2 5 billion euros in the coming weeks.
We believe authority is uniquely positioned to capitalize on a vast and near term market opportunity in Europe , and this new capital will allow them to execute on their strong pipeline of both inorganic and organic growth and to continue growing at this rapid pace.
In regard to the ongoing <unk> capital raise our conversations and diligence efforts with limited partners remain very constructive as our differentiated investment philosophy and strong long term track record are setting us apart from other funds in the market.
Through the end of October we have received commitments of approximately $14 5 billion due.
Due to the impacts of the denominator effect and the sheer number of GPS in the market. This year, we have agreed to keep the fund to open until the first half of 'twenty three to accommodate our investors annual allocation budgets, we remain confident in reaching our $25 billion target fund size and importantly, all capital closed in the remainder of 'twenty two or the first part of two.
<unk> III will accrue fees back to the fund's fee commencement date, which we activated on October one.
Turning to our retirement service inflows Athene had a stellar quarter of record inorganic growth as the value proposition of principal protected yield focus products are proving to be increasingly attractive in today's market.
Total inflows of $13 billion in the third quarter included a record 6 billion from the retail annuity channel as fixed rate products with attractive rates were in high demand and continued distribution expansion within large financial institutions health as well.
Flow reinsurance also benefited from these trends as well as growing traction from our expanding partnerships in Asia Pacific with its second best inflow quarter ever.
Accordingly, the duration and stickiness of Athena funding is highly predictable and we have not seen any material change in customer behavior. So far this year.
Before turning it over to Martin I would like to pick up on the discussion that I outlined at our Investor day, approximately a year ago.
We see ample white space opportunities tangential to our existing businesses that can drive accelerated growth above our base case targets.
There are a few very large and growing sectors, which typically trade at higher multiples, where we have not been historically active such as Fintech life science and software.
Over the past 18 months, we've selectively cultivated strategically and economically aligned partnerships with best in class managers in each of these areas to expand the breadth of our platform and expertise our investment in motive a specialist fintech private equity firm was our first partnership and the growth space. This relationship has.
Custard, several tangible benefits already such as providing proprietary investment origination helping in transaction due diligence within specialized sectors building.
Building out retail distribution technology.
Working on product innovation, with Apollo and Athene, and driving efficiency enhancements across apollo's operating structure.
More recently, we announced strategic and financial relationships with Sophie Nova a leading European life Science venture capital firm earlier this year as well as her belly, a premier enterprise software and gaming private equity firms.
We expect these more recent investments to be just as successful as what we've accomplished with motive and just over a year.
So with that let me stop there and hand it over to Martin.
Thank you Scott.
And good morning, everyone.
Echoing Mark and Scott sentiment. This morning. This is the type of environment, where Apollo it really shines.
<unk> business drivers, including capital deployment investment performance and fundraising remained strong.
Our financial results reflect continued momentum across our primary earning streams.
The stability quality and recurring nature of our earnings power provides comfort in these volatile markets.
Fees accounted for more than 80% of fee related revenue in the third quarter and year to date periods and.
And we experienced only an estimated 1% annualized drag on our management fees quarter over quarter from market value to clients.
Importantly fee and spread related earnings accounted for approximately 95% of total pretax earnings in the third quarter.
As Mark said, we're on track to me that five year targets that we laid out at Investor day last year, which includes more than doubling both FRE and total earnings.
Starting with AUM results third quarter, AUM reached $523 billion, increasing 2% quarter over quarter and 9% year over year.
Inflows totaled $34 billion in the third quarter as we raised significant amounts of capital from both our asset management and retirement services clients total outflows of $10 billion in the quarter included 6 billion from normal course of things run off which increased from the prior quarter due to several expected funding agreement maturities.
As well as the first of its kind of partial repurchase of existing nodes.
Efforts to tighten now trading spreads.
Realizations of $10 billion included 6 billion related to the related to the reallocation of our limited partners existing mandates to other strategies.
And a similar dynamic to last quarter most of the third quarter negative market activity was driven by unfavorable FX translation from authorities portfolio due to the depreciation of the euro.
Moving to FRE, we reported third quarter fee related earnings of $365 million as previously referenced or <unk> 61 per share, which increased 14% year over year and reflects the continuing momentum in our results after increases of 3% and 7% in the first and second quarter.
<unk> respectively.
Amid turbulent markets see fee revenue growth exceeding 20% year over year was very strong and included 16% growth in management fees.
On a sequential basis yield management fees benefited from a full quarter of gryphon fees and the exploration of a six month fee waiver for the non traded credit BDC, we manage Apollo jet solutions.
<unk> contributed an incremental $5 $5 million to each of management fees and fee related performance fees in the third quarter.
And as Scott noted, we turned on management fees for <unk> on October one at which point the fee basis for fun line stepped down from committed to remaining invested capital and a slightly lower fee rate.
The combination of these two events will be modestly accretive to our fourth quarter equity and management fees, and we will benefit from higher run rate and catch up fees with success of clauses.
In terms of expenses comp and non comp expenses increased on a sequential basis as expected as the impact of growth in our head count continues to run through our cost base.
Overall, we have good visibility into the fourth quarter results and continue to feel confident in meeting our $2 35 per share FRE target for this year.
As we look to 2023, we still expect fee revenue growth of more than 20% driven by revenue accretion from new strategic growth initiatives robust organic inflows from our retirement services clients fees from additional capital for <unk> and continued progress in our capital solutions buildup.
With a period of accelerated investment spend to support our fast growing platform behind us we expect to generate positive operating leverage next year as we move toward our long term FRE margin target of 60, 60% plus by 2026.
With a very strong revenue growth outlook and moderating expense growth, we are targeting FRE growth of around 25% in 2023 above our multi year compound annual growth target of 18%.
Moving to our retirement services segment, we generated sorry, a $578 million or <unk> 96 per share in the third quarter, which represents a net spread of 120 basis points.
As a percentage of average net invested assets.
Normalizing, our alternative returns to 11% and excluding certain notable items sorry, as Mark noted was not.
It was $598 million in the third quarter translating to a normalized net spread of 124 basis points.
On a sequential quarterly basis, our normalized net spread increased nine basis points driven.
Driven by 11 basis points of net accretion both from higher floating rate income and higher on the margin purchases due to rising interest rates.
Partially offset by two basis points of higher operating expenses.
The quarter over quarter increase in our Opex reflects higher costs associated with building out our platform capacity.
And we view this as a reasonable run rate in the near term.
We've been a beneficiary of this rising rate environment with higher short term interest rates generating.
Approximately $100 million of incremental SRA from a net floating rate income in the first nine months versus the comparable period of 2021 with $60 million of this increase or 10 cents per share in the third quarter.
We expect this amount to rise further.
Due to the timing of rate basis resets.
This dynamic as well as attractive deployment opportunities should continue benefiting the underlying profitability of our retirement services segment.
Translating to unexpected normalized net spread of approximately 145 basis points in the fourth quarter.
And just to underscore the strength of the <unk> business a year ago, we laid out an indication of $3 35 per share spread related earnings this year.
We expect to report closer to $4 per share with three key benefits higher rates on our floating rate portfolio organic growth exceeding our plans and a favorable investing environment.
Looking ahead to 2023, we expect this favorable interest rate uplift coupled with robust organic inflow outlook to drive above average normalized FRE growth next year relative to our 11% multi year compound annual growth expectation.
Turning to principal investing we reported <unk>.
$50 million or <unk> <unk> per share in the third quarter.
Realized performance fees of $93 million were light as expected as we think patient and monetizing investments to help maximize return potential for the benefit of our fund investors.
Lastly, our business generates a substantial amount of free cash flow and we expect to deploy $15 billion of capital through 2026, and strategic growth investments funding the base dividend in both growing the base dividend and Opportunistically repurchasing shares.
In the third quarter, we spent approximately $200 million of capital on Holdco investments to drive future FRE growth.
As well as approximately $50 million on share repurchases.
As a reminder, we spent $200 million on buybacks in Q2.
And we would have engaged in additional share activity in Q3, if it weren't for restrictions during the quarter.
Looking ahead, we expect to be more active in buying back our stock, particularly in times when in our opinion our stock is clearly undervalued.
We remain comfortable with our strong liquidity position, including a net balance sheet value at the holding company of $2, one $2 1 billion or $3 50 per share with cash and equivalents of more than $2 billion.
In closing I'd like to reiterate a central theme of our remarks this morning with.
We're very well positioned to capitalize on our growing pipeline of opportunities in this market backdrop and generate excess returns for our clients.
A year removed from a milestone investor day, we're even more confident in our ability to achieve our long term financial targets and are diligently executing against our attractive growth plan aimed at benefiting all stakeholders.
With that we thank you for joining the call and we'll open up for questions.
As a reminder to ask a question you will need to press star one on your telephone please standby, while we compile the Q&A roster.
Yeah.
Our first question comes from the line of Patrick Davitt of Autonomous. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Follow up question on the wealth management business appreciate all.
All the color Mark you gave us there could you give us a little more specifics on how the flows looked in all those major products and in <unk> versus <unk>.
More broadly are you still confident in the ability to launch one or two products a quarter ramp that business up.
Through through much more volatile markets.
Yes, Hi. This is this is Scott so flows have actually been built building quite nicely as we had told you we expected about 6 billion of us.
Inflows this year, the first year of our of our global wealth activities and it's been building sort of steadily quarter on quarter and.
So we we.
Feel quite good about that number.
In all likelihood exceeding that number.
That is been coming in through.
As Mark talked about this quarter, we launched AAA, we just launched the Arris, our real estate product and then of course some of the drawdown funds that are working through this global well system as well, namely fund 10.
I have been moving forward. So I'll continue to go quite well in that area. We do have some exciting launches early next year, we've talked to you about our.
Insurance wrapped products that'll be that'll be launching next year as well as a couple of others that that'll be coming.
More mid year, so yeah, feeling very good about where we're going in and really our first year in earnest in the global wealth channel has been a real success.
Thank you.
Okay.
Yes.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Cyprus with Morgan Stanley . Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, Thanks for taking the question wanted to circle back to some of the comments Mark you had made and Scott as well Mark you had referenced the U K market hiccup as maybe being the first of many I was hoping you might be able to expand on that what you see potentially coming where the next hiccup might arise what might cause that how apollo it might be able to capitalize on that opportunity.
And then Scott you mentioned about disgusted best thing that you are preparing for that can you maybe just expand upon your outlook, how you see that playing out this cycle.
Why don't I start on the macro side and then let Scott add some color.
So if you go back to Dodd, Frank and the changes that happened in our system beginning in 2008.
One of the changes that happened was an increase in the I'll say penalty cost providing trading capital by our estimate we have roughly the same amount of market, making capital in the system today as we had in 2008 with market is significantly larger.
One of the things we are seeing across every market is a decrease in liquidity.
And this is not just a structured product phenomenon. This is treasury market. There was an article yesterday talking about that.
And as I like to say to our clients.
We now are in a market, where there is only liquidity on the way up there.
There was not liquidity on the way down.
The public markets are less liquid.
The private markets are more liquid.
And so we're seeing a gradual trend toward increased private liquidity decreased public liquidity and as a result, when you have short term capital calls or short short term phenomenon.
You end up with all manner of market based.
Kind of illiquidity, particularly when everyone is looking for the same door at the same time.
Yeah, I mean, just to add on what Mark said.
While we can't necessarily predict exactly where.
Those movements will come.
14 years of zero percent interest rates has led markets to pursue increasingly leverage strategies to try to find yield and return and now that we're in a rising rate environment and those levered trades have to unwind that.
They all happened at once right the LDR transat.
Transaction that I referenced didn't there was nothing inherently wrong with the with the CLO tranches, we were buying it's just that happened to be the most liquid asset that those entities had to liquidate in order to cover that.
Leverage and margin issues and so those are the types of things, so being ready, having the breadth and scale of platform to take advantage of that when you see those cracks happening that's the opportunity.
Doug and I appreciate we've lived in 10 years of benign.
Environment with increasing liquidity and low rates.
And this mismatch of daily liquid products.
Non daily liquid assets is across our financial system. We saw in March of 2020, and the beginning of the pandemic.
Where it happened in open end mutual funds and Etfs, we've now seen in MDI.
And we will continue to see that because I step back again to the macro.
Our system is designed today such that things are only liquid on the way up they're not liquid on the way down and if you have any sort of event.
Where investors all run for the same door.
At the same time, there is no longer the dealer capital in the system to serve as a buffer.
To allow for usual business as usual price expectations.
To be willing to be able to participate in that market.
You have to have not done something over the past 10 years, you have to have not fully invested your balance sheet fully deployed your capital trying to maximize your earnings in a period that was very easy to try and do that.
And so what you find as many investors many institutions today are off sites.
They are essentially fully deployed.
Think about the insurance industry.
The publicly traded insurers over the past decade.
U S and Europe have raised closer to zero than $1 billion of capital and have paid out roughly 90% of their current market cap is dividends.
That means people are not.
<unk> overexposed, but theyre not in a position where they are net buyers in large size on market dislocation.
We try and run our European and our U S business and our fund businesses.
Such that in the <unk>.
Once a decade once or twice a decade opportunity.
We can be really large buyers of mispriced risk.
And to do that you have to be patient every day.
Back to you with the hardest thing to do running a competitive investment firm is not to chase the hot dog.
Just to sit and do nothing.
And wait.
And Mike just to quickly answer your distressed question.
So.
As you look at the credit markets right now if you were to look at the indexes per se.
We're certainly not in distress territory yet although.
Name by name you are starting to find you are starting to find some interesting situations moving moving in that direction, a fund and has started to accumulate positions in a few names so far but our watch list is stretches into the hundreds.
The key is as I've said in the past the key to successful distressed the distressed investing is to be ready when the markets move they move and you can't start analyzing your names Youre credits at that moment, you have to have a fully built out our investment theses around not only which names but we're.
In the capital structure of what prices you are interested in investing in.
Our teams are at this point.
Fully sort of buildup in prepared awaiting for those moments to happen, which I mean, nobody has a crystal ball, but we'll probably.
<unk> into into early next year when you start when you start to see that happen.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Finian O'shea of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Hi, Good morning. Thank you a question on the credit Suisse SPG business can you talk about the potential or expected impact to your direct origination volumes.
It's Mark I think it's too early to say.
What direct origination volumes would be but I will come back to what I see as the macro opportunity.
And this is how I frame the opportunity.
Dodd Frank.
Sufficient in the accompanying regulatory reform in Europe .
Trunk the size of the banking system made more of the banking systems products investment products.
The way I see U S consumers and companies banking today is through the structured products market through people like us and like credit Suisse.
I believe that the structured product market can be the size of the corporate credit markets.
And for US this was a slice of it. This is the top of the capital structure generally triple a double a.
<unk> has relationships with 200 different entities.
The transaction will initially is envisioned to initially be funded by ourselves and by Pimco.
And it is our job not just to take something that is already have size and scale, but to grow it from there.
So I think it's early to predict how much origination will come out of this but suffice it to say, it's going to be up to us.
To build a franchise around this and to.
To retain the clients and the people necessary to go do that.
But we are very optimistic and we would not have leaned in with all of the resources that we did.
If we didn't think this was a needle mover with respect to our origination capability.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Rufus home of BMO. Please go ahead.
Okay.
Great. Good morning, Thanks, very much I was hoping you could spend a minute on AAA. Specifically you mentioned last quarter that you think that has the potential to be the largest single product to a fund for Apollo.
How are your conversations progressing with institutions.
What do you still need to do in order to get this into the retail channel and when can we start to see flows from retail.
Thank you.
So it's Marc I'll come back to so we launched with approximately $10 billion from Athene.
And a half from Sumi Trust and $3 5 billion of other institutional commitments. If I look at things that have come out of global wealth and retail I don't have the exact number in front of me, but it's something to $300 million I would expect us to cross the five $600 million of new money beyond that by year end, but we really we will see.
We're now accepted for wealth distribution channels.
<unk> platforms really focused on the first quarter and I think you will see growth in 'twenty three.
It is now up to us.
To take a product that we think makes sense.
And explain it to the market.
And prove out success.
It's now the hard work is on us, but I step back we are offering investors side by side alignment with us for a de minimis or no incremental fee.
Our fully diversified no J curve portfolio.
Where they have liquidity, 5% at quarter end, we do not.
The initial conversations have been very encouraging.
But it is now up to us to execute.
Okay.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Alexander Blasting of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for the question I wanted to circle back on the capital return philosophy. The platforms got much bigger you guys, you're exceeding your near term earnings expectations and the excess capital continues to build so.
I guess near term I think Martin you mentioned that you guys were blacked out in the quarter and that's one of the reasons why you couldn't do much of a buyback was that related to credit Suisse or something else and I guess more importantly, as you look out into 2023 with kind of the dynamics that I mentioned, what are your expectations for total payout between dividends and buybacks.
So.
We're restricted I won't go into the reasons, we were restricted but we were not able to buy back more than we did which was a de minimis amount.
In the quarter, if you look at what we've done this year.
We've actually spent.
About $1.8 million between the dividend and strategic investments and that included about 200 million of a fly back in Q2. So.
Is that sort of a.
We earn our way into the $16 billion of investment capacity overtime.
So you know you need to own it's suspended.
As we look at our capital uses around the system.
<unk> is growing.
More rapidly than we thought and a dollar of.
Growth in Athene is highly accretive in terms of earnings but through FRE.
Sorry.
And then we also believe that the return on a dollar of capital spent to buy back stock is also.
Very accretive given our earnings expectations. So I think Alex you will you'll see US do both it's a balance part of the balance sheet is the role of the Ada place is the equity side for thing.
Which is which provides important leverage to onex.
Without capital.
So we'll we'll return.
In the early part of next year with.
With more around what we expect the capital return plans to be but I think you should expect to see us to lean.
Lean into growing insane, because it's highly accretive and buy back stock and then at the same time, we will continue to look at strategic growth.
Alternatives around the system, including some of what we've done this year.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Brian Bedell of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks, good morning folks.
Similar to AAA similar question on Apollo Realty income solution for new non traded REIT product can you talk about how you see that being differentiated enough.
Market, where more of these products are beginning to come out and then maybe just also comment on.
The retail sort of risk off behavior that we're seeing in the market. How are these how are these conversations is resonating and do you expect.
Do you think you need a risk on behavior.
To accelerate sales in the retail channel work or do you think your your story will really resonate as a differentiator and therefore generate organic growth based on based on that.
Yeah. This is Scott I'll answer both of those.
On the real estate.
The real estate product.
We believe we do you know like every investment product. We have you know Apollo takes a slightly different approach than.
And then the rest of the market a a more value oriented purchase price matters approach.
Really seems to be early resonating with some of the channel partners that we've been talking to as we as we get this product launch. So I actually do think we have a differentiated product that that should start to gain gain some real traction.
As far as the market itself, the global wealth and retail market.
Look Fortunately for US we are starting our journey this year and many of these products. So.
We have only one direction to go which is which is up.
And so while we do know that others have.
Ported.
Some suppressed or depressed volume levels.
What we're seeing right now we are moving in kind of an up into the right type of trajectory I think it also helps the.
Fact that we you know.
Our building these portfolios today, and a 22 rate environment and asset value environment, where we're not loaded with.
What I will call top of the market huge asset purchases top of the market in 2020 one.
And that I think investors see as a real opportunity to put up.
Put dollars to work and then start putting dollars to work in a really attractive way. So all in all like I said, we feel really good about where we're headed albeit starting from a much lower base than us.
Feel really good about where our global wealth business is headed.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Benjamin Booties of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, there. Thanks for taking my question I wanted to ask about the disclosure on the annualized outflow rates in the insurance business.
It looks like the policyholder driven withdrawals hasnt the rate in the quarter. It wasn't really changed over the last 12 months I'm just curious how that kind of compares over a longer time horizon and then you mentioned some kind of seasonality with the maturity driven contractual contractual outflows I'm just curious if the normalized rate should look more like two and a half or so we saw over the last year or if you could kind of give any color on that that'd be helpful.
Yes.
Exactly right on the first piece, so I think of this as sort of contractual or.
Within our control as sort of one one category that will be more volatile.
And then there's policyholder, driven which is sort of behavioral and the policyholder driven you should always expect that there is some amount of policyholder withdrawals and outflows and we had a 7% annualized rate in the quarter, we had a 7% annualized rate for the last 12 months, it's in line with our plans and.
Access the policies to get cash for a variety of reasons such as part of the business.
So we are not seeing any real change in that relative to history or our expectations.
And Thats you know thats the.
The higher focus point.
The contractual is a combination of both some particular funding agreements maturing.
And we were in the market as I mentioned buying back funding agreements.
During the quarter and that was sort of a decision that we made so.
That number funding agreements tend to have a shorter duration to them and so you do need to be in the market issuing funding agreements and we'll we'll access it more fully when when the market is there, but we are much less concerned about about that.
That's a market where.
We're a leader in and we've got good name in spreads.
We've provided that extra disclosure on behavioral surrenders to to provide more clarity into our comfort around around that piece of the outflows.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Gerald O'hara of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Great.
Thanks for taking the question, perhaps a tough one, but clearly a strong quarter from a transaction fee environment or a transaction fee.
I guess reported number.
Is there anything you can sort of give us a sense of where the baseline for this might be or perhaps just kind of what to look for in terms of kind of puts and takes from from a backdrop in the environment.
To help us build this on a go forward basis. Thank you.
Yes so.
As I alluded to in my prepared comments.
Transaction fees are inherently there is an inherent.
Up and down in that business line.
But I would think of it more as an upwardly sloping sine curve right in any given quarter I can't tell you.
Does the transaction closed on this side of the quarter are the far side of the quarter, but I do know given the scale and breadth of what we've been building.
That we are step functioning the volume and capacity.
The capacity to earn and generate fees on a on an increasing basis and so we do see that trajectory moving.
As you know we put out a five year target of 500 million of revenues.
As Mark alluded to will be right around 400 million for this year. So we are moving that upwardly sloping we're moving up that slope.
I'd say, even quicker than we had originally anticipated and expect that to continue to chug along so.
Like I said, it's a you can't predict any one transaction in any one quarter, but as your breadth and volume grows you do see that trend of upwardly sloping.
And that concludes the Q&A portion of today's call I will now return the floor to Noah Gunn for any additional or closing remarks.
Great. Thanks, everyone for joining us this morning and for your continued interest in Apollo. If you have any questions on anything we discuss on today's call. Please feel free to reach out to us and we look forward to connecting connecting with you.
And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating you may now disconnect.
The conference will begin shortly to raise your hand during Q&A you can dial one one.
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