Q4 2022 Toro Co Earnings Call

December 21, 2022

Speaker 3: Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Toro Company's fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2022 earnings conference call. My name is Josh and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will be facilitating a question and answer session toward the end of today's conference.

Speaker 4: As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's conference, Julie Caracas, Treasurer and Senior Managing Director of Global Tax and Investor Relations. Please proceed, Ms. Caracas.

Speaker 5: Thank you and good morning everyone. Our earnings release was issued this morning and a copy can be found in the investor information section of our corporate website, thetorocompany.com. As a reminder, we have introduced a quarterly earnings presentation.

Speaker 6: as well as an updated general investor presentation, both of which are available on our website.

Speaker 7: On our call today are Rick Olson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Renee Peterson, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Angie Drake, Vice President, Finance, and Jeremy Stephan, Director, Investor Relations.

Speaker 8: We begin with our customary forward-looking statement policy. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding our plans and projections for the future. This includes estimates and assumptions regarding financial and operating results, as well as economic, technological, weather, market acceptance, and financial and operating results.

Speaker 9: acquisition related, and other factors that may impact our business and customers.

Speaker 10: You are all aware of the inherent difficulties, risks, and uncertainties in making predictive statements.

Speaker 11: Our earnings release, as well as our SEC filings, detail some of the important risk factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from those in our predictions.

Speaker 12: Please note that we do not have a duty to update our forward-looking statements.

Speaker 13: In addition, during this call we will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of historical non-GAAP financial measures to reported GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings release and on our website in our investor presentations as well as in our applicable SEC filings.

Speaker 14: We believe these measures may be useful in performing meaningful comparisons of past and present operating results and cash flows to understand the performance of our ongoing operations and how management views the business. non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered superior to or a substitute for the GAAP financial measures presented in our earnings release.

Speaker 15: Throughout the year, we benefited from our pricing actions supported by strong demand for our innovative products, especially in our key professional markets.

Speaker 16: Importantly, we began to see improvements in our supply chain and in our manufacturing efficiency in what remained a very dynamic operating environment.

Speaker 17: Our entire organization executed extremely well.

Speaker 18: We drove operational improvements with lasting benefits and collaborated with our channel partners to support the needs of our customers.

Speaker 19: For the fourth quarter, net sales were up 22% over last year and adjusted diluted earnings per share were up 98%.

Speaker 20: Our revenue and profit growth were driven by pricing, volume gains, and improved productivity.

Speaker 21: For the full year, our top line exceeded $4 billion for the first time, with net sales of $4.5 billion, up 14% year over year.

Speaker 22: Our adjusted diluted earnings per share were $4.20, up 16%.

Speaker 23: I'll now highlight our full year results by segment.

Speaker 24: For fiscal 2022, on a year-over-year basis, professional segment net sales were up 17%.

Speaker 25: We capitalized on continued broad-based demand and drove pricing actions to mitigate inflationary pressures.

Speaker 26: We close the year with substantial backlog levels, most notably in our underground and specialty construction and golf and grounds businesses.

Speaker 27: With this heightened order book, our top line results were driven by our ability to produce in what remained a constrained supply environment.

Speaker 28: Residential segment net sales were up close to 6%.

Speaker 29: This was on top of two prior years of incredible net sales growth, up 23% in fiscal 2021 and up 24% in fiscal 2020.

Speaker 30: Our actions to introduce innovative new products, refresh brand marketing, and expand distribution have fundamentally reset this business and have positioned it well for the future.

Speaker 31: Across our organization, we delivered strong performance this year.

Speaker 32: we executed on key strategic initiatives to capitalize on very positive secular trends in markets where we have leadership positions.

First, we strengthened our innovation leadership with technology-forward product introduction.

This includes the expansion of our no compromise battery electric and smart connected offerings across our portfolio.

We also introduced autonomous products with industry first features in our golf and residential businesses sir realise the general physics but it's also will proposal both

We're excited to develop next generation solutions to help customers achieve their emission reduction goals while addressing their labor challenges and increasing productivity and precision.

Second, we prudently deployed capital for sustained long-term growth.

This included prioritized investments in research and development and key capital projects.

as well as our Intimidator Group acquisition.

This acquisition expanded our geographic reach and leadership position in the large and rapidly growing zero-turn mower market.

It builds on our history of successful acquisitions enabled by our effective capital allocation and strong balance sheet.

Third, we focus on driving the best outcome for all stakeholders.

Our team and channel partners served our customers, supported each other in our communities, and did business the right way.

We delivered record net sales and earnings while investing in future growth.

returning capital to shareholders, and maintaining financial flexibility.

We also continue to live our longstanding commitment to ESG as we establish performance goals in our most recent sustainability report.

We are starting the new fiscal year with great momentum and will continue to execute against our enterprise strategic priorities of accelerating profitable growth.

driving productivity and operational excellence, and empowering people.

I'll discuss our outlook further following Renee and Angie's more detailed review of our financial results and guidance.

With that, I will turn the call over to Renee.

Well, thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone.

As Rick said, we delivered record results for the quarter and full year.

These results were driven by continued strong demand, especially across key professional markets.

as well as pricing benefits and discipline execution in what remains a very dynamic operating environment.

We grew fourth quarter net sales by 22% year over year to a record $1.17 billion.

Reported EPS was $1.12 per diluted share and adjusted EPS was $1.11 per diluted share.

both up from $0.56 in the prior year.

For the full year, net sales increased 14% year-over-year to a record $4.51 billion.

Reported EPS was $4.20 per diluted share.

up from $3.78 last year.

Full year adjusted EPS was also $4.20 per diluted share, up 16% from $3.62 last year.

adjusted EPS was also $4.20 per diluted share, up 16% from $3.62 last year. Now to the segment results.

Professional Segment that sales for the quarter were $944.7 million, up 29% year-over-year.

This increase was primarily driven by net price realization and the

incremental revenue from our acquisition of the Intimidator Group.

and higher shipments of zero-turn mowers, Gulf and Grounds equipment, and snow and ice management solutions.

For the full year, professional segment nut sales increased 17.1% to $3.43 billion.

and comprise 76% of the total company nut sales.

Professional segment earnings for the fourth quarter were up 58% to $159 million.

and when expressed as a percentage of net sales, 16.8%.

Up from 13.8% last year.

This increase was primarily due to…

Net price realization.

net sales leverage, and productivity improvements.

Partially offset by higher material freight and manufacturing costs.

and the addition of the Intimidator Group at a lower initial margin relative to the segment average.

For the full year, professional segment earnings were $584 million, an increase of 15.1% compared to fiscal 2021.

As a percentage of net sales, segment earnings were 17%, down slightly from 17.3% last year.

as a result of the Intimidator acquisition in the first quarter.

Residential Segment Net Sales for the fourth quarter were $223.5 million, down about 1% year over year.

This was primarily due to lower sales of WokPower and zero-turn riding mowers and portable power products everything goes online no Excellent job guys

largely offset by net price realization and higher shipments of snow products.

For the full year, residential segment nut sales increased 5.8% to $1.1 billion and comprised 24% of the total company nut sales.

Residential segment earnings for the quarter were $17.5 million and when expressed as a percentage of net sales, 7.8%.

Up from 5.3% last year.

The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by net price realization, and the overall

productivity improvements, and favorable product mix.

Partially offset by higher material freight and manufacturing costs.

For the full year, residential segment earnings were $112.7 million, a decrease of 7.2% year-over-year.

On a percentage of net sales basis, segment earnings were 10.5%.

down from 12% in fiscal 2021.

Turning to our operating results.

reported and adjusted gross margin were 34 and 34.1 percent respectively for the fourth quarter.

This was up from 30.1% for both in the same period last year.

The increases were largely due to net price realization,

productivity improvements, and product mix.

This was partially offset by higher material freight and manufacturing costs.

and the addition of the Intimidator Group at a lower initial gross margin relative to the company average.

For the full year, reported and adjusted gross margins were 33.3% and 33.4% respectively.

This was down slightly from 33.8% for both in fiscal 2021.

SG&A expense as a percentage of net sales for the quarter was 21.2% compared to 22.4% in the same period last year.

This positive performance was primarily driven by net sales leverage and lower incentive costs.

For the full year, SG&A expense as a percentage of net sales was 20.5%.

A slight improvement compared to 20.7% last year.

Operating earnings as a percentage of NUT sales for the fourth quarter were 12.8%.

compared to 7.7% in the same period last year.

For the full year, operating earnings as a percentage of net sales were 12.8%.

Down from 13.1% in fiscal 2021.

Adjusted operating earnings as a percentage of net sales for the full year were 12.8%, the same as a year ago.

Interest expense for the quarter was $11.5 million.

Up 4.5 million dollars year over year.

Interest expense for the full year was $35.7 million, up $7 million.

These increases were driven by incremental borrowings to fund the Intimidator Group acquisition and higher average interest rates.

The reported and adjusted effective tax rates for the fourth quarter were 17.9% and 18.5% respectively, and for the full year 19.8% and 20.2% respectively.

Turning to our balance sheet and cash flows.

Accounts receivable were $332.7 million, up 7% from a year ago.

primarily driven by organic net sales growth and our acquisition of the Intimidator Group.

Inventory was $1.05 billion, up 42% compared to last year.

This increase was driven by higher finished goods, work in process, and service cards.

In addition, this includes impact of inflation and incremental inventory from our Intimidator group acquisition.

We expect our inventory composition and turnover to improve during fiscal 2023 as we manage through this unique environment.

Accounts payable increased 15% from last year to $579 million.

This was primarily due to higher purchase activity and inflation.

improved payment terms, and the Intimidator Group acquisition.

Free cash flow was $154 million with a conversion ratio of 35% of reported net earnings.

This conversion came in under our expectation, largely due to the current supply chain environment, which drove higher investments in work in process and service parts, as we focused on putting ourselves in the best position to produce equipment and serve our customers.

During Fiscal 2023, we intend to improve our work in process levels and return to a more normalized inventory composition.

Importantly, our balance sheet remains strong, and our gross death-to-EBITDA leverage ratio is well within our target range of one to two times.

We continue to allocate capital with our disciplined approach and the same priorities.

which include...

making strategic investments in our business to support long-term, profitable growth, both organically and through acquisitions.

We're turning cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

and maintaining our leverage goals to support financial flexibility. These priorities are highlighted by our actions this year.

including our deployment of $143 million in capital expenditures to fund new product investments, advanced manufacturing technologies, and capacity for growth.

Our $400 million acquisition of the Intimidator Group.

The return of $266 million to shareholders through regular dividend payments of $126 million and share repurchases of $140 million.

and the pay down of $100 million in debt.

These actions, along with our focus on operational execution, continue to position us well for the long term.

We are pleased to share that our board recently approved a 13% increase in our regular quarterly dividend for the first quarter of fiscal 2023.

and added 5 million shares to our repurchase authorization.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Angie to discuss our guidance.

Thank you, Renee, and hello everyone.

Looking ahead to 2023, I'd like to start with some commentary on our $2.3 billion order backlog. Our backlog has remained elevated the past two years, driven by the strong demand we've experienced, coupled with a challenging supply chain environment.

In fiscal 2022, we started to see some improvements in our supply chain and continued to adjust our production and operations for efficiencies.

Most of our current backlog consists of orders for underground and specialty construction and golf and grounds equipment. This is where we've had the highest supply chain disruption.

We continue to take measures to ensure pricing is current at the time of order fulfillment, and this provides a strong base for 2023. With that background in mind, along with our current visibility in this dynamic and evolving environment, we are providing the following guidance for Fiscal 2023.

For the full year, we expect net sales growth in the range of 7 to 10 percent, and we anticipate the return to a more typical quarterly sales cadence, with Q2 and Q3 being our larger quarters.

For the professional segment, we expect a net sales growth rate higher than the company average.

For the residential segment, we expect net sales to be relatively flat.

Looking at profitability, for the full year, we expect improvement in overall adjusted operating earnings as a percentage of net sales compared to last year.

driven by higher earnings margins in both segments.

We expect net price realization and productivity improvement to drive year-over-year improvement in gross margin and a higher gross margin in the second half of the fiscal year compared to the first half.

With this backdrop, we anticipate full year adjusted EPS in the range of $4.70 to $4.90 per diluted share.

This adjusted EPS estimate excludes the benefit of the excess tax deduction for stock compensation.

Turning to the first quarter, we anticipate a total company Q1 net sales growth rate that is meaningfully higher than our full year expectations.

We expect this to be driven by our professional segment, which will include the impact of incremental revenue from our 2022 acquisition of the Intimidator Group.

We expect residential segment neck fills to be relatively flat.

Looking at profitability, for the first quarter we expect modest improvement in gross margins and a similar SG&A rate, both compared to last year.

We also expect higher interest expense in the quarter year over year, given the incremental debt to fund the Intimidator Group acquisition and higher interest rates.

With this, we expect the professional margin to be down sequentially compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022, but still higher year over year.

We expect the first quarter residential earnings margin to be similar year over year.

Overall, we expect our first quarter fiscal 2023 adjusted EPS per diluted share to be higher than last year, but down sequentially from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. As Renee mentioned earlier, we are focused on improving our inventory position.

As a result, we expect to return to a normalized free cash flow conversion of approximately 100% of adjusted net earnings in fiscal 2023.

Additionally, for the full year, we expect capital expenditures in the range of $150 to $175 million.

depreciation and amortization of about $130 million.

interest expense of about $55 million, and an adjusted effective tax rate of about 21%.

Fiscal 2022 was a record-setting year for the Toro company and reinforced the agility and resiliency of our teams.

We are focused on operational excellence and will continue to build on incremental supply chain improvements.

We remain confident in our long-term strategies and look forward to building on our positive momentum in Fiscal 2023.

I'll now turn the call back to Rick.

Thanks, Angie.

As we head into fiscal 2023, we are well positioned with innovative products, trusted brands, and extensive distribution and service networks.

We expect to benefit from our well established market leadership along with the essential nature and regular replacement of our products. On top of that, we are entering the year with an order backlog of over $2 billion, the majority of which is for products in the areas of underground and specialty construction and golfing grounds.

From a broader perspective, we're keeping an eye on overall business confidence as well as consumer sentiment and spending patterns.

We're also monitoring inflation, monetary policy actions, and the geopolitical environment.

We believe we are well prepared to navigate this heightened level of macro uncertainty.

I'll now comment on the macro factors we are seeing in our end markets which could impact future results starting with our professional segment.

For underground and specialty construction, we expect the current robust demand to continue with public and private infrastructure investments providing a multi-year tailwind.

Utility, construction, and rental markets currently show no signs of slowing down, driven by the need and support for broadband and alternative power build-outs, along with the aging infrastructure.

For example, the American Society of Civil Engineers estimates that a water main breaks every two minutes.

and there are six billion gallons of treated water lost each day in the US alone.

With the most comprehensive equipment lineup in the industry, including solutions for new installations, repair, rehab, and replacement.

We are actively addressing this serious environmental and economic issue.

For golf, we expect strong demand to continue as course budgets are healthier than ever.

In the US, rounds played in 2022 are on track to once again end the year well above pre-pandemic level.

The overall participant base is expected to exceed 40 million for the first time in history.

as the only company to offer both equipment and irrigation solutions, and as the market leader in both.

We are extremely well positioned to build on our momentum and longstanding relationships.

For example, we were recently named the official equipment and irrigation partner for Asian tour destinations. For more information, visit www.fema.gov.

an exclusive network of world-class golfing venues.

We were selected because of our high quality products, exemplary service and support, and legacy of trusted relationships.

For municipalities and grounds, we expect to continue to see healthy budgets and the prioritization of green spaces.

along with increasing interest in zero exhaust emission products.

For customers seeking sustainable solutions, we are well positioned with our growing suite of no compromise offerings geared to professionals.

For snow and ice management, the season is off to a good start with record pre-season bookings and storm activity driving healthy contractor revenue.

In addition, we have a steady cadence of new product launches to enhance our leadership in this space.

This includes the versatile new Snow Raider mag.

This system allows one operator to do the work of eight shovelers on a job site, and our new liquid de-icing solutions significantly reduce the amount of salt required.

For landscape contractors, we expect to see a more normalized seasonal cadence.

with some degree of influence from weather patterns.

This large growing market remains extremely attractive.

Our extensive channel plus three brands, Xmark, Toro, and Spartan, position us well to increase our leadership in this space.

Customers are seeking solutions that drive productivity and efficiency, and there is growing interest in options that reduce exhaust emissions.

This includes our X-Mark and Toro commercial grade battery powered stand on and zero turn mowers.

These mowers last the entire workday on a single charge with no sacrifice in performance.

We also expect demand for certain of our battery and hybrid electric offerings to get a boost from tax credits included in the US Inflation Reduction Act.

If applicable, these credits could drive a faster payback period for qualifying customers when considering the total cost of ownership. For residential, commercial, irrigation and lighting, we are watching for any shifts in consumer spending patterns as well as housing market trends.

Sustainability is ingrained in our approach to this business.

We were honored to receive our eighth consecutive EPA Water Sense Award in October for our outreach and education around efficient water use.

For agricultural microirrigation, we expect a normalized year for purchasing patterns and are monitoring drought conditions in key regions.

Our customers remain focused on solutions that drive efficiency and precision.

to grow more food with less water.

Moving to the residential segment, we continue to see demand return to more typical seasonal trends.

With this normalization, we will be watching weather patterns, including snow activity, the timing of spring, and the extent of any drought conditions.

More broadly, we will be watching consumer confidence.

Importantly for us, we benefit from regular replacement cycles.

In addition, the current demand normalization is on top of the higher base we have built over the past few years with our expanded channel partners. We have also grown our addressable market.

with the ever increasing number of tools and attachments in our FlexForce 60-volt battery lineup.

and we'll be entering the autonomous space for homeowners with our robotic mower that was announced earlier this year.

We've entered the new year with an outstanding team of employees and channel partners and strong momentum.

We believe we are well positioned to build on our market leadership across our broad portfolio as we continue to prioritize technology investments and alternative power, smart connected and autonomous solutions.

Importantly, we plan to leverage these investments across our businesses.

to drive value for all stakeholders.

We believe we have a unique competitive advantage driven by our innovation and market leadership, prudent capital allocation, enterprise-wide operational excellence, and valued network of deep relationships. On that note, I would like to thank our employees and channel partners for going above and beyond every day.

to support our customers and deliver great results.

You are the key to the Toro company's success.

I would also like to extend my gratitude to our customers and shareholders for your continued support and I wish everyone a fantastic holiday season.

With that, we will open up the call for questions.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star followed by 11 on your touch tone telephone.

Press star 1 1 to begin. Please stand by for your first question.

Our first question comes from

Tom Hayes with North Coast Research, you may proceed.

Thanks for taking my question. Good morning. I guess for you, Renee, on you guys called out through the prepared remarks your price realization in 22. You don't provide a lot of details at all. Maybe throw it out there anyway. Any way you can kind of shape that up. Your expectation is for 23. We'll do that everybes inequality event.

How much price realization is in your expectations, or more or less about the same, anything you provide on that color would be great.

Yeah, looking at price for 23, Angie, do you want to maybe cover that one?

Yes, we expect to see our demand continue to be solid for our products. We're going to continue with pricing to the market as we have typically done. And we do expect to see 7-10% sales growth in the year for our full year guidance.

We will probably see more price than volume, but it will be a mix really of both price and volume.

I think we just continue to feel like we're going to be agile and focus on productivity and adjust where we need to.

Okay, then just maybe as a follow-up.

Rick, you talked about supply chain getting a little bit better. I think last time we spoke. He said maybe upwards of 50% of the items that at the worst of the supply chain issue. Maybe getting a little bit better and it sounds like it's continued to. Get better I just how do you see that progressing through this year?

You're right, we are seeing improvement, steady improvement in the supply chain. I think especially if you benchmarked last year at this time, as I look back at my notes, if we had an assembly line that was not running and I called one of our plants and asked why that was, they would say, we don't know where to start. We've got so many supply issues and suppliers that can't.

So chips, wiring harnesses, some hydraulic components, and a few engines, but it's a much more definable group than it was a year ago at this time. It continues to show steady improvement.

Okay, appreciate the color. I'll get back in the queue.

Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Sam Darkhouse with Raven James, you may proceed.

Good morning, Rick, Renee, Angie, how are you? Good morning to each of you. Morning, happy holidays. Happy holidays to you as well. I've got like two or three questions. I'll try to make them real quick.

I think I heard you say that you're looking to work your inventories lower as the year progresses. Can you add a little bit of color or quantification to that in terms of...

What's a realistic goal from a dollar perspective that you can get inventories by fiscal year end versus the $1 billion here? And then same question, how much of that $2.3 billion in backlog are you looking or are you including within your 7 to 10% sales growth guidance that

than our historical average. Important to note that we did come off of two very strong years of free cash flow conversion at 140% in fiscal 20 and 110% in 21. As we look forward.

Sam, we don't have a specific guidance number related to inventory because we'll manage all of the variables that impact our cash flow, but we do feel that we'll return to a more normal level of free cash flow conversion. And as Angie talked about, we expect that to be about 100% for the year. So that's embedded in there.

in our conversations previously. And we will be working to bring down the backlog. In some cases that can be done more quickly because the supply chain constraint is resolved more quickly. Others will extend out throughout the year, but we know we're gonna be managing the backlog throughout the year.

From a capacity standpoint, we're adding capacity in areas that have long-term growth and capacity needs beyond the short-term. And the areas that are more of a short-term issue, we're looking to......

double down on our existing operations, whether we're using other facilities to make some of the products or the opportunity to add shifts and so forth. That's really subject to the availability of components still at this point. So as the supply chain gets healthier, we'll look for options to continue to bring the backlog down as quickly as possible.

We're working with our channel partners and our customers to make sure we support our customers, which is our top priority in this environment. Just adding to that, going back to the inventory question, they're really related, too. As we've looked at trying to serve our customers to the best of our ability, given the demand that Rick was just talking about, we have made some.

strategic decisions to bring in some key components. And we think that served us well, but we'll continue to manage that inventory as the supply chain normalizes. So...

Could I infer then or could one infer that based on the improvements you've been seeing in supply chain and the fact that the season is going to be starting in the next few months or so, that backlog would be worked lower perhaps as soon as this existing quarter or is it going to be more of a springtime thing?

But again, the bigger spring push is really on our residential side, and most of the backlog in this case is really on the professional side.

which lends me to, I'm sorry. Yep. Sorry, Sam, I was just gonna add to that to say, you know, we'll really kind of return to a more normal cadence of sales per quarter and seeing our larger quarters be in Q2 and Q3 of S23. Okay, and so.

My final thought as it relates to RESI, there's clearly a lot of moving pieces here in the channel with respect to channel inventories and weather normalization and maybe some push ahead demand from prior periods.

How do you categorize the sell through expectations?

both from a volume and pricing standpoint this coming year, that informs your expectations for flat resi sales growth. Thanks.

Yeah, I think, Sam, we've described it as a more normalized situation, so we've got better field inventory positions than we've had the last couple of years in residential. We're still short in a few key product categories that we're looking to fill in in the field. And then it will be subject to the normal, you know, the timing of spring.

and we did grow the business by 6% in that circumstance. Residential has been an absolute superstar, 20 through 21 and 20 growing more than 20%. So we're really talking about normalizing on a new plateau of that business based on.

additional channel partners, the reboot of the product line, marketing and merchandise positioning, et cetera. So it's a different business than it was a few years ago.

of partners, the reboot of the product line, marketing and merchandise positioning, et cetera. It's a different business than it was a few years ago. Thank you. Thank you all.

Thank you, Sam. Thank you. Thank you. One moment for questions.

Our next question comes from Tim Moses with Baird. You may proceed.

Hey everybody, good morning, happy holidays. Maybe just on the guidance around margins, it sounds like you'll actually have less expansion in the first half of the year than the second half of the year, even though I think that the comps in the first half are easier than the second half....

but down sequentially from Q4. Part of that is the inventory adjustment that we had to make in Q1, which is just kind of part of a normal process that we do. But this quarter it was a bit higher, significantly higher than we had to do in prior years, really related to the increased inventory and the inflationary environment.

Q2 and Q3.

Although, interest expense is also a piece of that and it will be higher year over year. And then finally, you know, when we look at our adjusted EPS, it's higher year over year for

And, you know, our range is going to be 12 to 17 percent higher year over year for the total year for the total year. Yes. Okay, yeah, I mean, I guess maybe, maybe, maybe ask a different way. Like, I guess your implied incrementals are kind of mid 20 percent. And, you know, for 23, and I don't think that's much different than your kind of normal incrementals.

And I would think you'd have more productivity and better price cost as being tailwind. I guess what are you baking in for the net price cost tailwind on the margin side for 23?

Yeah, we're continuing to see positive price realization. We're still in an inflationary environment though, Tim. What we're seeing, we are seeing some favorable trends from a commodity standpoint, but all of that we're certainly not seeing in our P&L as of today. It's also important to consider in Q1 when you're looking at just Q1, we did have an intimidating group everyone above zero was $2.20,

landscape contractor perspective, it sounds like you're expecting kind of more normalized demand patterns in fiscal 23 in that business. I mean, does that imply that the channel from kind of an inventory and a floor, you know, kind of floor planning perspective has kind of returned to normal?

I think in general it is a little bit more returning to normal as I'm expanding on what I said before. We do have key product categories, and especially on the more higher end of LCE, the more professional, higher horsepower products. We still are short products in the field for those categories. So that is one of those categories.

Certainly much more demand even to put the field inventory in the right place for those, but good flow through still from the professional contractors. I would just say for some portion of that business also goes to homeowners with acreage, so that's another factor that's a little bit more closely aligned with residential.

Okay, okay. And then just last one, on the golf and the underground businesses, are you effectively sold out for this year, or I guess fiscal 23? And I guess I'm looking at the backlog and trying to think about how big those businesses are from a revenue perspective. And I think the backlog is probably bigger than what those two businesses generate on an annualized basis. So I guess I'm just curious if you're already booking those businesses out to kind of fiscal 20.

production in some of those areas as components become available without adding regrettable capacity that we'll have to deal with in the future.

Okay, and when you think about catbacks, I mean, is it really devoted to those two businesses on a go-forward basis? Not universally. It's overweighted to those areas, especially the underground, especially construction side that has long, long names.

opportunities going forward here relative to the secular trends and the drivers of infrastructure spending and investment. So that would have more capital investment, long-term perspective. Thanks guys, happy holidays and good luck on 23.

Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. One moment for questions.

Our next question is from Eric Bossard with Cleveland Research. You may proceed.

Thank you. Good morning. Good morning. On backlog, a couple of points of clarification. The 2.3 billion number, that number a year ago was a billion and a half, is that correct?

Roughly 1.6.

Correct. And that normalized, if we go back to 2019, that number in a more normal period is roughly what? If you look at the average over a number of years prior to or including 2019 and before, it's more in the 100.

and 50 range, 100 and so it's roughly, you know, was 10x last year at this time. Okay, and so the growth in 22, I guess what I'm trying to figure out is that the number grew.

700 million or 40% this year, and your supply chain improved back and loaded, it sounds like, within the year. But the further growth of that number, is this...

Can you just give us sense? I mean, obviously backlog is is the sum or the difference between demand and supply, but can you just help us understand what contributed to that growth this year in those metrics? Yeah, it's really the narrative on the backlog for 2022 is that our supply chain got better. We were able to fulfill a lot of the backlog.

we were able to ship more and the demand came in at a faster rate. Yeah, really strong and markets and very healthy and customers as well. And then related to that, secondly, the revenue guide for 23 of up 7 to 10, I guess as I look at the backlog number relative to last year relative to historic context, with incremental supply is the limiting factor to this is supply.

And then the last question I have relates to inventory. Your directional comment that you would make progress on inventory in 23 is in terms of operating rates or utilization rates.

companies in your neighborhood that have too much inventory and they'll solve it by producing less.

Is your inventory more function of shipping more or are there, you know, do you have to, I don't believe my question, do you have to idle capacity or is this just there's enough supply we can complete product and then get it out the door? Like is the improvement in inventory have any impact on operating rates or incremental margins or is it

Is it the alternative? Yeah, no, I don't think we'll be producing less. It's really more weighted Eric toward work in process and service parts Because again, we intentionally brought in some of those Components to try to get more efficiency out of our production facility. So I think we'll be producing at a high rate Um, we actually are a little light unfinished goods in a number of areas as Rick was

And I would just add to that that we are – today we are a larger company, and so we've also got inflationary rates a bit in our inventory, but we do believe the inventory is good. We're not seeing a lot of excess in obsolete. It's good inventory. Okay. That's helpful. Great. Thank you very much.

Thank you. Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. Our next question comes from David McGregor with Longbow Research. You may proceed. Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I am calling to see if anyone has any, or different questions for this person.

just trying to understand if we end up in a slowdown in demand in 2023 and it it doesn't play out in accordance with the base case but rather comes in lighter than that.

Rick, where in the P&L are your greatest opportunities to flex in order to protect margins?

in the way that we do our planning for the year and our budgeting. So we tend to budget in a way that significant investments are held until we can see how the year is starting to play out. We leave flexibility in some of those investments as we go through the year. We have we have.

flex opportunities with our suppliers and so forth as well. So that's the way that we build our plan for the year to be able to flex should the conditions change.

and we stay current with the level of demand. So that's how we do our business. Yeah, and I would just say from a professional standpoint, there's a lot of our professional customers have not been able to get the products that they need and they want. So we do have kind of a bit of pent up demand on the professional side. Certainly some of it constrained by supply chain, but also just the fact that.

that people have been wanting to get that product. And that's probably the key point, is most of our products are used for essential tasks. They're not discretionary, so especially in the context of a business.

Many of our professional customers have delayed purchases through the early part of the pandemic, and they're already behind. And our products are consumed when they're used, so if they're being used, then they're being consumed and they need to be replaced.

I would also say we're off to a really good start with snow, as you can imagine, both on the professional and the residential side. We've activated the emergency response system with our channel to ship product to the areas that are going to be affected by the storms coming up. We've been off to a good start so far this year as well.

Even in our residential business, that's a really nice way to start out the year as well from a product standpoint.

Just to follow up on your answer, when you talk about investments, are you really referencing new product development investments or is it something else?

New product investments are usually the last to go, to be honest. It could be systems investments, those types of things that don't affect... Product development is an extremely high priority because innovation is so key to who we are. We don't give those up easily, if ever.

Secondly, just to reference back to an answer you gave earlier with regard to landscape contractor, some portion of that obviously does sell into residential markets. Are you able to quantify that for us or give us some sense of how likely that segment is to correlate to residential? I don't think we've quantified that in the past with

I just didn't want to imply that those all go to landscape contractors. There are other customer types in that category. They're affected differently by economic conditions.

Okay, and then finally, I guess just from a profitability standpoint, I'm just curious if that's around Intimidator and I realize it's a high single digit percentage of the pro segment, but so relatively small, but it keeps coming up and sharing the discussion of the dynamics around the margins. So is there any way to sort of help us understand just what the progression plan is there in terms of profitability?

and how much longer we expect it to be diluted to the prosegmental numbers.

Yeah, and we called it out because of the first year. It has more of an impact on the financial performance versus when it's in the base, comparing year over year. Sure. As far as the acquisition itself, it has been a great acquisition. It is performing in line with our expectations and with the models that we had upon the acquisition. We're realizing the synergies that we had anticipated at this point in time.

and getting leverage, especially related to some of the technology areas, over the broader three brands that we now have within the zero-turn mower market. We feel really good about the acquisition. We are seeing improvement in their profitability, but really we didn't expect all that to happen.

all in one year, especially given the supply chain challenges. Initially we wanted to make sure we got off to a strong start with the brand and maintained the momentum that they had and we'll work overtime to definitely to improve their profitability.

And I would just add to that in Q1, we expect them to add about $60 million in net sales as part of that net sales increase in the pro segment.

Is there a backlog in that business as well?

Is there a backlog in that business as well? This $60 million sounds like it hasn't grown much.

Backlog would be similar to other LTE at this point, so some on key product categories, but the field inventory is in better position there than it would be on the other categories of pro that we talked about. Yeah, and I think the 60 million is consistent from a run rate standpoint with what we've been seeing in the prior quarters as well. It has a little more of a seasonal cadence to it. What we're was we

So Angie's quoting the number for Q1 and that they weren't in our Q1 F22. Yeah, and I think pre-acquisition, they were about 200 million. So they are growing. Okay, thanks very much and happy holidays, everyone. Okay, thank you. Happy holidays. Thank you. This concludes the question and answer session. If anyone has any questions they might be able to Legion and I will say my you know it's like the other guy, right?

Ms. Karakas, please proceed to closing remarks. Thank you, Josh, and thank you all for your questions and interest in the Toro company. We look forward to talking with everyone again in March to discuss our fiscal 2023 first quarter results. Happy Holidays.

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.

The conference will begin shortly. To raise your hand during Q&A, you can dial star 11.

We public.

I you.

Well.

Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Toro Company's fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2022 earnings conference call. My name is Josh and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. We will be facilitating a question and answer session towards the end of today's conference. As a reminder this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's conference.

Julie Karakas, Treasurer and Senior Managing Director of Global Tax and Investor Relations. Please proceed Ms. Karakas.

Thank you and good morning everyone. Our earnings release was issued this morning and a copy can be found in the investor information section of our corporate website, thetorocompany.com.

As a reminder, we have introduced a quarterly earnings presentation as well as an updated general investor presentation, both of which are available on our website.

On our call today are Rick Olson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Renee Peterson, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Angie Drake, Vice President, Finance, and Jeremy Stephan, Director, Investor Relations.

We begin with our customary forward-looking statement policy. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding our plans and projections for the future. This includes estimates and assumptions regarding financial and operating results, as well as economic, technological, weather, market acceptance, acquisition-related, and other factors that may impact our business and customers.

You are all aware of the inherent difficulties, risks, and uncertainties in making predictive statements.

Our earnings release, as well as our SEC filings, detail some of the important risk factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from those in our predictions.

Please note that we do not have a duty to update our forward-looking statements. In addition, during this call we will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of historical non-GAAP financial measures to reported GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings release and on our website in our investor presentations.

as well as in our applicable SEC filings. We believe these measures may be useful in performing meaningful comparisons of past and present operating results and cash flows to understand the performance of our ongoing operations and how management views the business.

non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered superior to or a substitute for the GAAP financial measures presented in our earnings release and this call.

With that, I will now turn the call over to Rick.

Thanks, Julie, and good morning, everyone. We were pleased to close out fiscal 2022 with record top and bottom line results for both the fourth quarter and the full year. Throughout the year, we benefited from our pricing actions supported by strong demand for our innovative products, especially in our key professional markets. Importantly, we began to see improvements in our supply chain and in our main—

over last year and adjusted diluted earnings per share were up 98%.

Our revenue and profit growth were driven by pricing, volume gains, and improved productivity.

For the full year, our top line exceeded $4 billion for the first time, with net sales of $4.5 billion, up 14% year over year.

Our adjusted diluted earnings per share were $4.20, up 16%.

Our adjusted diluted earnings per share were $4.20, up 16%. I'll now highlight our full year results by segment.

For fiscal 2022, on a year-over-year basis, professional segment net sales were up 17%.

We capitalized on continued broad-based demand and drove pricing actions to mitigate inflationary pressures.

We closed the year with substantial backlog levels, most notably in our underground and specialty construction and golf and grounds businesses.

With this heightened order book, our top line results were driven by our ability to produce in what remained a constrained supply environment.

Residential segment net sales were up close to 6%.

This was on top of two prior years of incredible net sales growth, up 23% in fiscal 2021 and up 24% in fiscal 2020.

Our actions to introduce innovative new products, refresh brand marketing, and expand distribution have fundamentally reset this business and have positioned it well for the future. Across our organization, we delivered strong performance this year.

we executed on key strategic initiatives to capitalize on very positive secular trends in markets where we have leadership positions.

First, we strengthened our innovation leadership with technology-forward product introduction.

This includes the expansion of our no compromise battery electric and smart connected offerings across our portfolio.

We also introduced autonomous products with industry first features in our golf and residential businesses.

We're excited to develop next generation solutions to help customers achieve their emission reduction goals while addressing their labor challenges and increasing productivity and precision.

Second, we prudently deployed capital for sustained long-term growth.

This included prioritized investments in research and development and key capital projects.

as well as our Intimidator Group acquisition.

This acquisition expanded our geographic reach and leadership position in the large and rapidly growing zero-turn mower market. It builds on our history of successful acquisitions enabled by our effective capital allocation and strong balance sheet.

Third, we focused on driving the best outcome for all stakeholders. Our team and channel partners served our customers, supported each other in our communities, and did business the right way.

We delivered record net sales and earnings while investing in future growth, returning capital to shareholders, and maintaining financial flexibility. We also continue to live our longstanding commitment to ESG as we establish performance goals in our most recent sustainability report. We are starting the new fiscal year with great success.

With that, I will turn the call over to Renee.

Well thank you Rick and good morning everyone. As Rick said, we delivered record results for the quarter and full year.

These results were driven by continued strong demand, especially across key professional markets, as well as pricing benefits and disciplined execution in what remains a very dynamic operating environment.

We grew fourth quarter net sales by 22% year over year to a record $1.17 billion.

Reported EPS was $1.12 per diluted share and adjusted EPS was $1.11 per diluted share.

both up from $0.56 in the prior year.

For the full year, net sales increased 14% year-over-year to a record $4.51 billion.

Reported EPS was $4.20 per diluted share.

up from $3.78 last year.

Full year adjusted EPS was also $4.20 per diluted share, up 16% from $3.62 last year.

Now to the segment results. Professional Segment

incremental revenue from our acquisition of the Intimidator Group, and higher shipments of zero-turn mowers, Gulf and Grounds equipment, and snow and ice management solutions.

For the full year, professional segment nuts sales increased 17.1% to $3.43 billion.

and comprise 76% of the total company nut sales.

Professional segment earnings for the fourth quarter were up 58 percent to $159 million.

and when expressed as a percentage of net sales, 16.8%.

Up from 13.8% last year.

This increase was primarily due to net price realization, and the increase in the net price

This increase was primarily due to net price realization, net sales leverage, and productivity improvements.

Partially offset by higher material freight and manufacturing costs.

and the addition of the Intimidator group at a lower initial margin relative to the segment average.

For the full year, professional segment earnings were $584 million, an increase of 15.1% compared to fiscal 2021.

As a percentage of net sales, segment earnings were 17%, down slightly from 17.3% last year, as a result of the Intimidator acquisition in the first quarter.

Residential Segment Net Sales for the fourth quarter were $223.5 million, down about 1% year over year.

This was primarily due to lower sales of WokPower and zero-turn riding mowers and portable power products.

largely offset by net price realization and higher shipments of snow products.

For the full year, residential segment nut sales increased 5.8% to $1.1 billion and comprised 24% of the total company nut sales.

Residential segment earnings for the quarter were $17.5 million and when expressed as a percentage of net sales, 7.8%.

up from 5.3% last year. The year over year increase was primarily driven by net price realization, and the year

productivity improvements, and favorable product mix, partially offset by higher materials rate and manufacturing costs. For the full year, residential segment earnings were $112.7 million, a decrease of 7.2% year over year. And a percentage of net sales basis.

Segment earnings were 10.5%, down from 12% in fiscal 2021. Turning to our operating results.

reported and adjusted gross margin were 34 and 34.1 percent respectively for the fourth quarter.

This was up from 30.1% for both in the same period last year.

The increases were largely due to net price realization,

productivity improvements, and product mix. This was partially offset by higher material freight and manufacturing costs and the addition of Intimidator Group at a lower initial gross margin relative to the company average.

For the full year, reported and adjusted gross margins were 33.3% and 33.4% respectively. This was down slightly from 33.8% for both in fiscal 2021.

SG&A expense as a percentage of net sales for the quarter was 21.2% compared to 22.4% in the same period last year.

This positive performance was primarily driven by net sales leverage and lower incentive costs. For the full year, SGA expense as a percentage of net sales was 20.5%.

A slight improvement compared to 20.7% last year.

Operating earnings as a percentage of NUT sales for the fourth quarter were 12.8%.

Compared to 7.7% in the same period last year.

For the full year, operating earnings as a percentage of net sales were 12.8%.

Down from 13.1% in fiscal 2021.

Adjusted operating earnings as a percentage of net sales for the full year were 12.8%, the same as a year ago.

Interest expense for the quarter was $11.5 million, up $4.5 million year over year.

Interest expense for the full year was $35.7 million, up $7 million.

These increases were driven by incremental borrowings to fund the Intimidator Group acquisition and higher average interest rates.

The reported and adjusted effective tax rates for the fourth quarter were 17.9% and 18.5% respectively, and for the full year 19.8% and 20.2% respectively.

The reported and adjusted effective tax rates for the fourth quarter were 17.9% and 18.5% respectively. And for the full year, 19.8% and 20.2% respectively. Turning to our balance sheet and cash flows.

Accounts receivable were $332.7 million, up 7% from a year ago, primarily driven by organic net sales growth and our acquisition of the Intimidator Group. inventory was $1.05 billion, up 42% compared to last year.

This increase was driven by higher finished goods, work in process, and service parts.

In addition, this includes impacts of inflation and incremental inventory from our Intimidator Group Acquisition. We expect our inventory composition and turnover to improve during fiscal 2023 as we manage through this unique environment. Accounts payable increased 15% from last year.g

to $579 million. This was primarily due to higher purchase activity and inflation.

improved payment terms, and the Intimidator Group acquisition. The cash flow was $154 million with a conversion ratio of 35% of reported net earnings.

During Fiscal 2023, we intend to improve our work in process levels and return to a more normalized inventory composition.

Importantly, our balance sheet remains strong and our gross death to EBITDA leverage ratio is well within our target range of 1 to 2 times.

We continue to allocate capital with our disciplined approach and the same priorities.

which include making strategic investments in our business to support long-term profitable growth, both organically and through acquisitions.

We're turning cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

and maintaining our leverage goals to support financial flexibility. These priorities are highlighted by our actions this year.

and maintaining our leverage goals to support financial flexibility. These priorities are highlighted by our actions this year, including.

Our deployment of $143 million in capital expenditures to fund new product investments, advanced manufacturing technologies, and capacity for growth. Our $400 million acquisition of the Intimidator Group.

the return of $266 million to shareholders through regular dividend payments of $126 million and share repurchases of $140 million and the pay down of $100 million in debt.

These actions, along with our focus on operational execution, continue to position us well for the long term.

We are pleased to share that our Board recently approved a 13% increase in our regular quarterly dividend for the first quarter of fiscal 2023 and added 5 million shares to our repurchase authorization. With that, I'll turn the call over to Angie to discuss our guidance. Thank you, Renee. And hello, everyone.

and continue to adjust our production and operations for efficiencies. Most of our current backlog consists of orders for underground and specialty construction and golf and grounds equipment. This is where we've had the highest level of supply chain disruption. We continue to take measures to ensure pricing is current at the time of order fulfillment and this provides a strong base for 2023.

With that background in mind, along with our current visibility in this dynamic and evolving environment, we are providing the following guidance for Fiscal 2023. For the full year, we expect net sales growth in the range of 7 to 10 percent and we anticipate the return to a more typical quarterly sales cadence with Q2 and Q3 being our larger quarters.

For the professional segment, we expect a net sales growth rate higher than the company average.

For the residential segment, we expect net sales to be relatively flat. Looking at profitability, for the full year, we expect improvement in overall adjusted operating earnings as a percentage of net sales compared to last year, driven by higher earnings margins in both segments.

With this backdrop, we anticipate full year adjusted EPS in the range of $4.70 to $4.90 per diluted share.

This adjusted EPS estimate excludes the benefit of the excess tax deduction for stock compensation. Turning to the first quarter.

We anticipate a total company Q1 net sales growth rate that is meaningfully higher than our full year expectations.

We expect this to be driven by our professional segment, which will include the impact of incremental revenue from our 2022 acquisition of the Intimidator Group.

We expect residential segment net sales to be relatively flat. Looking at profitability, for the first quarter we expect modest improvement in gross margins and a similar SG&A rate, both compared to last year. We also expect higher interest expense in the quarter year over year, given the incremental debt to fund the Intimidator Group acquisition and higher interest rates.

Looking at segment profitability for the first quarter, we expect the professional margin to reflect an incremental expense of about $5 million as a result of our inventory valuation methodology and the timing of inflation. With this, we expect the professional margin to be down sequentially compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022, but still higher year over year.

We expect the first quarter residential earnings margin to be similar year over year.

Overall, we expect our first quarter fiscal 2023 adjusted EPS per diluted share to be higher than last year, but down sequentially from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022.

As Renee mentioned earlier, we are focused on improving our inventory position.

As a result, we expect to return to a normalized free cash flow conversion of approximately 100% of adjusted net earnings in fiscal 2023.

Additionally, for the full year, we expect capital expenditures in the range of $150 to $175 million, depreciation and amortization of about $130 million, interest expense of about $55 million, and an adjusted effective tax rate of about 21%.

Fiscal 2022 was a record-setting year for the Toro company and reinforced the agility and resiliency of our teams.

We are focused on operational excellence and will continue to build on incremental supply chain improvements.

We remain confident in our long-term strategies and look forward to building on our positive momentum in Fiscal 2023.

I'll now turn the call back to Rick. Thanks, Angie.

As we head into fiscal 2023, we are well positioned with innovative products, trusted brands, and extensive distribution and service networks. We expect to benefit from our well established market leadership along with the essential nature and regular replacement of our products. On top of that, we are entering the year with an order backlog of over $2 billion.

the majority of which is for products in the areas of underground and specialty construction and golfing grounds.

From a broader perspective, we're keeping an eye on overall business confidence as well as consumer sentiment and spending patterns.

We're also monitoring inflation, monetary policy actions, and the geopolitical environment.

We believe we are well prepared to navigate this heightened level of macro uncertainty.

I'll now comment on the macro factors we are seeing in our end markets, which could impact future results, starting with our professional segment. For underground and specialty construction, we expect the current robust demand to continue with public.

and private infrastructure investments providing a multi-year tailwind. Utility construction and rental markets currently show no signs of slowing down, driven by the need and support for broadband and alternative power build-outs along with the aging infrastructure.

For example, the American Society of Civil Engineers estimates that a water main breaks every two minutes, and there are six billion gallons of treated water lost each day in the US alone. With the most comprehensive equipment lineup in the industry, including solutions for new installations, repair, rehab, and replacement.

We are actively addressing the serious environmental and economic issue. For golf, we expect strong demand to continue as course budgets are healthier than ever. In the U.S., rounds played in 2022 are on track to once again end the year well above pre-pandemic levels.

The overall participant base is expected to exceed 40 million for the first time in history. As the only company to offer both equipment and irrigation solutions, and as the market leader in both.

We are extremely well positioned to build on our momentum and longstanding relationships. For example, we were recently named the official equipment and irrigation partner for Asian tour destinations. We've favored such club or team members for the past 20 years, we've done quite the

an exclusive network of world-class golfing venues. We were selected because of our high-quality products, exemplary service and support, and legacy of trusted relationships. For municipalities and grounds, we expect to continue to see healthy budgets and the prioritization of green spaces.

along with increasing interest in zero exhaust emission products. For customers seeking sustainable solutions, we are well positioned with our growing suite of no compromise offerings geared to professionals.

For snow and ice management, the season is off to a good start with record pre-season bookings and storm activity driving healthy contractor revenue. In addition, we have a steady cadence of new product launches to enhance our leadership in this space.

This includes the versatile new Snow Raider mag. This system allows one operator to do the work of eight shovelers on a job site, and our new liquid de-icing solutions significantly reduce the amount of salt required.

For landscape contractors, we expect to see a more normalized seasonal cadence with some degree of influence from weather patterns.

This large growing market remains extremely attractive.

Our extensive channel, plus three brands, Exmark, Toro, and Spartan, position us well to increase our leadership in this space. Customers are seeking solutions that drive productivity and efficiency, and there is growing interest in options that reduce exhaust emissions.

This includes our X-Mark and Toro commercial grade battery powered stand on and zero turn mowers.

These mowers last the entire workday on a single charge with no sacrifice in performance.

We also expect demand for certain of our battery and hybrid electric offerings to get a boost from tax credits included in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. If applicable, these credits could drive a faster payback period for qualifying customers when considering the total cost of ownership.

For residential, commercial, irrigation and lighting, we are watching for any shifts in consumer spending patterns as well as housing market trends. Sustainability is ingrained in our approach to this business.

We were honored to receive our eighth consecutive EPA WaterSense Award in October for our outreach and education around efficient water use. For agricultural microirrigation, we expect a normalized year for purchasing patterns and are monitoring drought conditions in key regions.

Our customers remain focused on solutions that drive efficiency and precision.

Our customers remain focused on solutions that drive efficiency and precision to grow more food with less water.

Moving to the residential segment, we continue to see demand return to more typical seasonal trends.

With this normalization, we will be watching weather patterns, including snow activity, the timing of spring, and the extent of any drought conditions. More broadly, we will be watching consumer confidence. Importantly for us, we benefit from regular replacement cycles.

In addition, the current demand normalization is on top of the higher base we have built over the past few years with our expanded channel partners. We have also grown our addressable market with the ever-increasing number of tools and attachments in our Flex-Force 60-volt battery lineup. And we will be entering the autonomous space for homeowners with our...

as we continue to prioritize technology investments and alternative power, smart connected and autonomous solutions. Thank you.

Importantly, we plan to leverage these investments across our businesses to drive value for all stakeholders. We plan to leverage these investments across our businesses to drive value for all stakeholders

to support our customers and deliver great results. You are the key to the Toro company's success.

I would also like to extend my gratitude to our customers and shareholders for your continued support. I wish everyone a fantastic holiday season.

With that, we will open up the call for questions. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star followed by 11 on your touch tone telephone.

press star 1 1 to begin please stand by for your first question our first question comes from

Tom Hayes with North Coast Research, you may proceed. Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Good morning, Tom. Good morning. I guess for you, Renee, on you guys called out through the prepared remarks your price realization in 22, and I know you don't provide a lot of detail at all. Maybe throw it out there anyway. Anyway, you can kind of shape that up, and then your expectation is for 23.

continue to be solid for our products. We're going to continue with pricing to the market as we have typically done and we do expect to see you know seven to ten percent sales growth in in the year for our full year guidance.

We will probably see more price than volume, but it will be a mix really of both price and volume. We will continue to be agile and focus on productivity and adjust where we need to.

Okay, thanks. And then just maybe as a follow-up, Rick, you talked about supply chain getting a little bit better. I think last time we spoke you said maybe upwards of 50 percent of the items that – at the worst of the supply chain issue may be getting a little bit better. It sounds like it's continuing to get better. I just –

How do you see that progressing through this year? You're right, we are seeing improvement, steady improvement in the supply chain. I think especially if you benchmark last year at this time as I look back at my notes. If we had an assembly line that was not running and I called one of our plants and asked why that was, they would say, you know, we don't know where to start. We've got so many supply issues and.

So chips, wiring harnesses, some hydraulic components, and a few engines. But it's a much more definable group than it was a year ago at this time. And it continues to show steady improvement.

Okay, I appreciate the call. I'll get back in the queue. Thank you. Thank you. One moment for questions.

Our next question comes from Sam Darkice with Raymond James, you may proceed. Good morning Rick, Renee, Angie, how are you? Good morning to each of you. Happy holidays. Happy holidays to you as well. I've got like two or three questions, I'll try to make them real quick. So,

I think I heard you say that you're looking to work your inventories lower as the year progresses. Can you add a little bit of color or quantification to that in terms of what's a realistic goal from a dollar perspective that you can get inventories by fiscal year end versus the $1 billion here? And then same question.

how much of that $2.3 billion in backlog are you looking, or are you including within your 7 to 10% sales growth guidance that would be worked lower?

Rick, maybe I'll take the first question if you want to talk about the backlog. I guess looking at free cash flow generation, inventory was the driver for our conversion rate within fiscal 2022, which was lower than our historical average. I want to note that we did come off of two very strong years.

free cash flow conversion at 140% in fiscal 20 and 110% in 21. As we look forward, Sam, we don't have a specific guidance number related to inventory because we'll manage all of the variables that impact our cash flow, but we do feel that we'll continue to have a specific guidance number related to inventory.

will return to a more normal level of free cash flow conversion. And as Angie talked about, we expect that to be about 100% for the year. So that's embedded in that guidance.

As you look at the backlog going forward, Sam, the bulk of the backlog, the largest portions that are coming from underground, especially construction, golf and grounds, has been consistent in our conversations previously. And we will be working to bring down the backlog. In some cases that can be done more quickly because supply chain constraints is resolved.

short-term issue, we're looking to double down on our existing operations, whether we're using other facilities to make some of the products or the opportunity to add shifts and so forth. That's really subject to the availability of components still at this point, so as the supply chain gets healthier, we'll look for options to continue to.

bring the backlog down as quickly as possible. We're working with our channel partners and our customers to make sure we support our customers, which is our top priority in this environment. And just adding to that, going back to the inventory question, they're really related too. As we've looked at trying to serve our customers to the best of our ability, given the demand that Rick was just talking about, we have made some.

strategic decisions to bring in some key components. And we think that served us well, but we'll continue to manage that inventory as the supply chain normalizes. So,...

as this existing quarter, or is it going to be more of a springtime thing when we should see sequential backlog declines?

I think we're looking at it over the course of the year. Our best estimate is built into our guidance. Certainly the spring is an opportunity with the natural flow for demand for that to come down. But again, the bigger spring push is really on our residential side.

and most of the backlog in this case is really on the professional side. Which lends me to... I'm sorry. Sorry, Sam. I was just going to add to that to say we'll really kind of return to a more normal cadence of sales per quarter and seeing our larger quarters be in Q2 and Q3 of F23. And so...

How do you categorize the sell-through expectations, both from a volume and pricing standpoint this coming year, that informs your expectations for flat resi sales growth? Thanks.

to grow the business by 6% in that circumstance. And residential has been an absolute superstar, 20 through 21 and 20, growing more than 20%. So we're really talking about normalizing on a new plateau of that business based on additional channel partners, the reboot of the product line marketing and.

merchandise positioning, et cetera. It's a different business than it was a few years ago. Thank you, thank you all. Thank you, Sam. Thank you.

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Tim Moses with Baird. You may proceed. Hey everybody. Good morning. Happy Holidays.

Maybe just on the guidance around margins, it sounds like you'll actually have less expansion in the first half of the year than the second half of the year, even though I think that the comps in the first half are easier than the second half. So just maybe walk us through what specifically is kind of driving that. I would have thought it would have been a little bit better in the first half, just given the timing and price cost. Yeah, I think what you'll see there is that we do expect pro...

We did that just to call that out really to help you guys in your modeling. But that will affect our pro margin a bit. And res will be similar year over year. We do expect that this will kind of normalize as we go into Q2 and Q3. Although We keep doing it every work day.

Interest expense is also a piece of that and it will be higher year over year and Then finally, you know when we look at our adjusted EPS, it's higher year over year, too and You know our range is going to be 12 to 17 percent higher year over year for the total year for the total year Yes, the story. Okay. Yeah, I mean, I guess maybe maybe maybe ask a different way Like I guess you're implied incrementals are kind of mid 20%

and you know for 23 and I don't think that's much different than your kind of normal incrementals and I would think you'd have you know more productivity and kind of better price cost as being kind of tailwind so I guess just kind of I guess what are you baking in for kind of the net price cost you know kind of tailwind you know on the margin side for 23.

Just a perspective, it sounds like you're expecting more normalized demand patterns in fiscal 23 in that business. Does that imply that the channel from an inventory and a floor planning perspective has returned to normal?

We still are short products in the field for those categories. So certainly much more demand even to put the field inventory in the right place for those, but good flow through still from the professional contractors. I would just say for some portion of that business also goes to homeowners with acreage.

think about how big those businesses are from a revenue perspective and I think the backlog is probably bigger than what those two businesses generate on an annualized basis. So I guess I'm just curious if you're already booking those businesses out to kind of fiscal 24 and what the lead times look like in golf and underground today.

It's not true universally across those categories, but it's true in some key categories, yes, that were booked out through the year. Okay, sounds good. Thanks to the earlier comments for working on how we can overdrive production in some of those areas as components become available.

without adding regrettable capacity that we'll have to deal with in the future. Okay. And when you think about catbacks, I mean, is it really devoted to those two businesses on a go-forward basis?

Not universally, it's overweighted to those areas, especially the underground, especially the construction side that has long, long, long, long, long, long, long, long, long,

going forward here relative to the secular trends and the drivers of infrastructure spending and investment. So that would have more capital investment long-term perspective. Okay, great. Thanks guys. Happy holidays and good luck on 23. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. One moment for questions.

Our next question is from Eric Bossard with Cleveland Research. You may proceed. Thank you. Good morning. Good morning. I'm back logged. A couple of points of clarification. The 2.3 billion number, that number a year ago was a billion and a half, is that correct?

Roughly, yeah, 1.6, correct. That normalized, if we go back to 2019, that number in a more normal period is roughly what? If you look at average over a number of years prior to our...

including 2019 and before, it's more in the 150 range. 100 and so it's roughly, you know, was 10X last year at this time.

Okay. And so the growth in 22, I guess what I'm trying to figure out is that the number grew 700 million or 40% this year. And your supply chain improved back and loaded it sounds like within the year. But the further growth of that number, is this, can you just give us sense? I mean, obviously backlog is, is.

the sum or the difference between demand and supply, but can you just help us understand what contributed to that growth this year in those metrics?

Yeah, it's really the narrative on the backlog for 2022 is that our supply chain got better. We were able to fulfill a lot of the backlog that was there when we started, and the demand was even more than what we could fulfill.

Basically, the answer is incredibly strong demand in those areas, underground specialty construction and the golf and grounds market. We got better, the supply chain got better, we were able to ship more, and the demand came in at a faster rate. Yeah, really strong end markets and very healthy end customers as well.

Okay, and then related to that, secondly, the revenue guide for 23 of up 7 to 10, I guess as I look at the backlog number relative to last year relative to historic context.

With incremental supply, the limiting factor to this is supply, it's not demand. It feels like multiples, or am I thinking about backlog wrong?

Generally, that is true. Yes, it's a supply-driven constraint. As you can see, we have a lot of demand.

That's been really our theme throughout the last year or plus. And then the last question I have relates to inventory. Your directional comment that you would make progress on inventory in 23 is in terms of operating rates or utilization rates, there's a lot of other companies in your neighborhood that have too much inventory and they'll solve it by producing less.

Is your inventory more function of shipping more or are there, you know, do you have to?

I believe my question, do you have to idle capacity or is this just there's enough supply we can complete product and then get it out the door? Like, is the improvement in inventory have any impact on operating rates or incremental margins or is it the alternative? Yeah, no, I don't think we'll be producing.

less. It's really more weighted Eric toward work in process and service parts because again we intentionally brought in some of those components to try to get more efficiency out of our production facility so I think we'll be producing at a high rate. We actually are a little light on finished goods in a number of areas as Rick was talking about where we have very strong demand we're not holding a lot of finished goods we're shipping.

So we've also got inflationary rates a bit in our inventory, but we do believe the inventory is good. We're not seeing a lot of excess and obsolete. It's good inventory.

Great. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. Our next question comes from David McGregor with Longbow Research. You may proceed. Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Are there any more questions from walked on by the email that's on the Genie'senable website? Great.

I guess, first of all, thanks for the additional guidance around first quarter. If I were to think that you were going to provide that quarterly guidance on a consistent basis going forward, that would be a huge help. So thanks for that. But it's likely to be a base case, right? So I guess I'm just trying to understand if we end up in a slowdown in demand in 2023 and it's worth a try in terms of your time off. If everybody Conversely, there were also significant

It doesn't play out in accordance with the base case, but rather comes in lighter than that. Rick, where in the P&L are your greatest opportunities to flex in order to protect margins?

I think this is something that the Toro company has done just by nature of our markets and our businesses. We know that some of our businesses are affected by weather cycles and so forth, so we stay very agile in the way that we do our planning for the year and our budgeting. What's new is the economic development strategy I believe you're having to deal with today I think today is a big step toward our throughout our season which is to kind of

We tend to budget in a way that significant investments are held until we can see how the year is starting to play out. We leave flexibility in some of those investments as we go through the year. We have flex opportunities with our suppliers and so forth as well. So that's the way that we build our plan for the year.

need and they want. So we do have kind of a bit of pent up demand on the professional side. Certainly some of it constrained by supply chain, but also just the fact that people have been wanting to get that product. And that's probably the key point is most of our products are used for essential tasks.

They're not discretionary, so especially in the context of a business. Many of our professional customers have delayed purchases through the early part of the pandemic and they're already behind. Our products are consumed when they're used, so if they're being used, then they're being consumed and they need to be replaced. We're off to a really good start with snow as you can imagine.

Just to follow up on your answer, when you talk about investments, are you really referencing new product development investments, or is it something else? New product investments are usually the last to go, to be honest. It could be systems investments, those types of things that don't affect. Product development is an extremely high priority because innovation is so key to who we are. We don't give those up easily, if ever. Secondly, just to reference back to an answer you gave earlier with regard to landscape contractor, some portion of that obviously...

They're affected differently by economic conditions. Finally, I guess just from a profitability standpoint, I'm just curious in your thoughts around Intimidator. I realize it's a high single-digit percentage of the pro segment, so relatively small, but it keeps coming up in terms of discussion.

of the dynamics around the margins. So is there any way to sort of help us understand just what the progression plan is there in terms of profitability and how much longer you expect it to be diluted to the post-segment?

Yeah, and we've called it out because of the first year. It has more of an impact on the financial performance versus when it's in the base comparing year over year. As far as the acquisition itself, it has been a great acquisition. It is performing in line with our expectations and with the models that we had upon the acquisition.

We're realizing the synergies that we had anticipated at this point in time and getting leverage, especially related to some of the technology areas, over the broader three brands that we now have within the zero-turn mower market. We feel really good about the acquisition. We are seeing improvement in their profitability, but really, we didn't expect all of that to happen all in one year, especially given the supply chain challenges.

Initially, we wanted to make sure we got off to a strong start with the brand and maintained the momentum that they had, and we'll work over time to definitely to improve their profitability. And I would just add to that in Q1, we expect them to add about $60 million in net sales as part of that net sales increase in the pro segment. Is there a backlog in that business as well?

This 60 million sounds like it hasn't grown much. Backlog would be similar to other LTE at this point, so some on key product categories, but the field inventory is in better position there than it would be on the other categories of pro that we talked about. All right, thanks for oyster1968 for choosing all of us at Trump Superurban, and we'll try to lock it here in a couple of more.

Yeah, and I think the $60 million is consistent from a run rate standpoint with what we've been seeing in the prior quarters as well. It has a little more of a seasonal cadence to it. So Angie's quoting the number for Q1. And that they weren't in our Q1 F22. Yeah, and I think pre-acquisition, they were about $200 million. So they are growing. Okay, thanks very much and happy holidays, everyone. Okay, thank you. Happy holidays.

Thank you. This concludes the question and answer session. Ms. Karakas, please proceed to closing remarks. Thank you, Josh, and thank you all for your questions and interest in the Toro Company. We look forward to talking with everyone again in March to discuss our fiscal 2023 first quarter results. Happy Holidays. Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation.

You may now disconnect. Good day. Good day.

Q4 2022 Toro Co Earnings Call

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