Q4 2022 Stanley Black & Decker Inc Earnings Call
Yeah.
Welcome to the fourth quarter and full year 2020 to Stanley Black <unk> Decker earnings Conference call. My name is Shannon and I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode.
Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded.
Now I'll turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations Dennis Lange, Mr. Lang you may begin.
Okay.
Thank you Shannon good morning, everyone and thanks for joining us for Stanley Black <unk>, Decker's 2022 fourth quarter and full year webcast on the webcast. In addition to myself, Don Allen, President and CEO and carbon wall Berger, Vice President and interim CFO , our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning, and a supplemental presentation, which we will refer to.
Two are available on the IR section of our website a replay of this morning's webcast will also be available beginning at 11 a M. Today. This morning, Don I'm Corbin will review, our 2022 fourth quarter and full year results and various other matters followed by a Q&A session consistent with prior webcast, we're going to be sticking with just one question per caller.
And as we normally do we will be making some forward looking statements during the call based on our current views such statements are based on assumptions of future events that may not prove to be accurate and as such involve risks and uncertainty. It's therefore possible that the actual results may materially differ from any forward looking statements that we may make today, we direct you to.
The cautionary statements in the 8-K that we filed with our press release and in our most recent 34 Act filings I'll now turn the call over to our President and CEO Don Allen.
Thank you Dennis and good morning, everyone. Our fourth quarter performance marked another meaningful step forward on our journey to streamline and optimize Stanley Black <unk> Decker building on our number one worldwide market position in tools and outdoor as well as our leading industrial business. We continued to focus on advancing our simplification.
And transformation strategy across the second half of 2022, we improved customer fill rates significantly reduced inventories by $800 million and realized $200 million of efficiency benefits from our leaner organizational structure as well as enhanced cost control and the back office and the <unk>.
Supply chain these actions generated more than $500 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter, which supported a corresponding similar amount of reduction in our debt a key objective of our capital allocation plan in the second half of 2022 overall, we are making progress and I am confident that our strategy and priorities our positioning of the <unk>.
Company for a strong sustainable long term growth cash flow generation profitability enhancement and shareholder return. This transformation journey has just started and significant efforts are still ahead of us our success will be dependent on staying agile, while maintaining a disciplined approach which insurers.
We stay focused on our key set of priorities. Our team has seen significant changes over the second half of 2022 and they will lead us through the next phase of the transformation in 2023, I would like to take a moment to thank all of our leaders and employees across the globe and recognize them for their focus commitment.
Hard work, especially over the last seven to eight months, our 2022 full year revenue reached $16 9 billion.
Up 11% versus a record of 2021 led by the outdoor power equipment acquisition as well as 9% organic growth in the industrial segment.
And a 7% improvement in price realization. However, these topline growth drivers were partially muted by significant retraction in consumer and DIY demand as well as certain supply chain constraints, we experienced in early 2022 or.
Our margins were significantly impacted by inflation and when we chose to prioritize inventory reductions by lowering manufacturing production levels in the last four to five months of 2022. This will allow us to generate solid free cash flow as we experienced in the fourth quarter.
These negative profitability impacts resulted in a full year adjusted diluted earnings per share being down year over year to $4 62.
For the fourth quarter revenues were in line with the prior year at 4 billion.
Demand from our professional end markets remain healthy with our differentiated offerings and improved product availability, we successfully executed our promotional plans in support of the holiday season for our retail partners adjusted EPS for the period was a loss of 10 cents. A result of our planned prioritization efforts around inventory reduction.
And cash generation, notably, we lowered inventory by $500 million as compared to the end of the third quarter. We entered 2023 prepared to navigate the challenging macroeconomic backdrop as interest rate hikes begin to yield theyre intended effects that said, we are committed to advancing our transformation while there is.
More work to be done we have a clear roadmap forward.
We are watching the demand environment and global economic dynamics very closely although current demand remains consistent with levels experienced in the back half of last year. We are planning for all scenarios, which balanced the potential continuation of the current trends with the prospect of a further demand slowdown due to intensifying macro pressures.
While changes in demand are difficult to predict our base case or midpoint of guidance assumes a decline in volume versus 2022, as we believe markets will continue to be challenged during 2023 as new housing starts are projected to decline, 15% to 25% and repair and remodel activity will decline modestly.
Year over year. We are also prepared to respond if revenue impacts are worse or better than our base case to ensure we appropriately manage the risks and opportunities that could arise. This guidance will have a P&L loss in the front half, which is impacted by our strategic choice to continue to reduce our inventory levels for the full year.
We are guiding an adjusted EPS range of zero up to $2.
Our free cash flow guidance is much stronger at $500 million.
Up to $1 billion in.
In 2023, well ahead of net income as we drive another $750 million up to $1 billion.
A inventory reduction during the year as you have heard me say many times over the past year. We believe the long term view for the initiatives, which our products are very positive with powerful generational shift into housing more time at home due to hybrid work an aging housing stock that needs repair remodel the continued.
Movement in aerospace demand and the acceleration of electrification within the automotive market. We also have powerful secular drivers in tools and outdoor from the shift to cordless power tools and electric powered outdoor equipment as we leverage our brands and innovation to gain market share our priorities in 2023.
We'll continue to be aligned with our messaging over the last six months, one strong focus on cash flow through inventory reduction to assist with ongoing debt deleveraging to sequential improvement in our gross margins as we drive further supply chain transformation initiatives and three get back to gaining market share in all major.
Categories of our tools and outdoor business. Our 2023 guidance base case is planning for an improved profitability performance in the back half of the year as we see more benefits from the transformation program. We believe our annualized EBITDA will achieve a run rate of close to $1 5 billion in the back half that will be a major step forward.
And returning our company back to 2019, EBITDA levels, which were just above $2 billion.
Given the significant benefits expected to be realized beyond 2023 from our supply chain transformation program. There appears to be a very reasonable glide path to exceed 2019 levels for EBITDA.
Our teams around the world remain focused on executing our primary areas of long term strategic focus continuing to advance innovation electrification and global market penetration to achieve organic growth of 2% to three times the market growth.
Streamlining and simplifying the organization as well as shifting resources to prioritize investments that we believe have a positive and more direct impact for our customers and end users.
Accelerating the operations and supply chain transformation to return gross margins to historical 35% plus levels, while improving fill rates the better match inventory with customer demand and then prioritizing cash flow generation and inventory optimization, we are making deliberate strategic investments in our businesses to position the company.
To fully capitalize on these long term opportunities to gain share within the industries that we serve and to accelerate our organic growth.
With that in mind last year, we invested approximately $350 million in research and development up over 25% versus 2021.
And well ahead of our total sales growth.
This increase in R&D will ensure we continue to fund incremental investments beyond our core and breakthrough innovation electrification across the portfolio and market leadership, including digital and end user activation. This is an area, where we have a long legacy of key investments to maintain our market leading innovation ecosystem.
Clearly took another step forward in 2022, and we will again in 2023, our business transformation remains on track and we are building momentum towards delivering approximately $1 billion in annualized savings by the end of 2023 that will support both growth and operating margin expansion once our inventory destock.
Complete let's spend some time on the topic of innovation, we are continuing to release, new products and bring advancements and innovations to our industries today I will highlight a few exciting launches as it relates to outdoor electrification, we are introducing new craftsman and dewalt outdoor offerings for the 2023 season Craftsman with <unk>.
Our new range of lithium ion electric right on mowers, and an expansion of our 20 volt Craftsman outdoor essentials, notably new brushless string trimmers and blowers as well as a new cordless pressure washer for the pro we are continuing to expand into Walt flexible 20 volt Max system, including the addition of a new.
Pruning chainsaw that is lightweight and compact with an eight inch bar and a high efficiency brushless motor.
Shifting to professional job site products and solutions. This is another key area for long term growth. We recently debuted a range of revolutionary tools accessories and storage solutions for pros in the commercial concrete and construction industries as we continue to electrify the job site.
Spanning the flexible product family with the launch of the world's first cordless inline Sds Max Chipping Hammer.
And cordless breaker Hammer, we're also introducing the most powerful cordless to wall large angle grinder. All three of these new cordless tools include perform and protect safety features as well.
Additionally, we have a new dewalt <unk> system solution for story charging and transporting dewalt 20 volt and flex both battery and lastly, our dwelled product team partnered with converge, a leading concrete material and operations optimization company to develop and unveil new concrete DNA compatible sensors this new product.
Allows the <unk> to begin work sooner as users can directly measure concrete hardening using advanced artificial intelligence rather than relying on estimation. In addition, this product helps reduce cement consumption by tailoring the exact amount needed together with converge, we are helping to tackle the challenge of reducing carbon <unk>.
<unk> through our product innovation.
As the worldwide leader in tools and outdoor these are prime examples of the types of core and breakthrough innovation that we expect to continue to reduce to our customers and deliver for our end users now.
Now diving a bit deeper into our business transformation.
The team has made great progress.
We realized $200 million of savings in the second half of 2022 from efficiency benefits, including our organizational changes as well as indirect cost savings, we expect to deliver cumulative SG&A savings of $500 million by the end of 2023 covering simplification of the corporate structure.
<unk> leadership spans of control and organizational layers and the reduction of indirect spend our new organizational structure is now in place and the teams are activating our priorities as you saw in our recent announcements we have brought on two new business leaders, who are critical for our transformation Patrick Allen and was named our <unk>.
Becoming chief Financial Officer, Patrick is a seasoned executive who has led global high performing finance functions across top consumer brands Patrick joins us in April from Fortune brands innovation, where he currently serves as the CFO and is the ideal candidate for the next leader of our finance function, Jon Lucas joined Us as <unk>.
Our new <unk> and brings a highly distinguished track record with World class experience in organizational and human capital management, John will be instrumental to enabling our culture and values and to the long term success of our business I want to thank carbon wahlberg, Kurt and Deborah winter for their leadership and significant contributions.
During this critical transformation period for the company I look forward to continuing to work with them as key Stanley Black <unk> Decker leaders turning to our supply chain transformation. We have line of sight to deliver cumulative savings of $500 million by the end of 2023 and $1 5 billion by 2025 building off the momentum from last.
Quarter, we activated our transformation with a sense of urgency to optimize our operation, which better serve our customers, while also being efficient and agile with our footprint and cost structure after improving in initiating action on our SKU reduction. We now have approximately 50000 skus that we are no longer.
Manufacturing and are approved for decommission throughout 2023, we will work to transition our customers to the products that deliver the most value for our end users as we shared last quarter. The strategic sourcing team activated quick wins, we are pleased to share that this early traction has already generated $40 million in savings.
<unk> is now fully activated and addresses approximately $2 billion of spend which is covered by 20 Rfps that are due back. This quarter. We also successfully advanced our facility optimization and distribution network planning. The detailed feasibility analysis is nearing completion this quarter with execution of the plan to follow shortly.
Lee Thereafter, lastly, we have heightened our focus on manufacturing excellence re emphasizing SPD <unk> and lean manufacturing practices at our factory activation at four plants will be complete this quarter and in March we will initiate the next wave we have exited the acute phase of the pandemic driven supply constraints.
And as such refocusing our plants on continuous improvement rigor will enable the acceleration of value across the network. You can expect us to continue to take strides forward and we will provide you with updates towards achieving our cumulative $1 billion of savings by the end of 2023 on our path to delivering total program savings of 2 billion.
By 2025, I will now pass the Corbin, who will take you through more detailed commentary on the fourth quarter and full year performance as well as our 2023 guidance Corbin.
Thank you Don and good morning, everyone. Let me walk through the details of our business segment performance, beginning with tools and outdoor fourth quarter revenues were in line with last year at $3 4 billion Benny.
Benefiting from the 7% improvement from price actions and an eight point contribution from the MTBE and excel outdoor acquisitions. Both of these acquisitions are now part of organic growth beginning in December . These factors were offset by a 12% decline in volume and a negative 3% impact from currency.
From a full year perspective tools outdoor achieved record revenue of $14 4 billion driven by a 7% improvement from price actions and 21% growth contributed by our outdoor acquisition, which was offset by softer consumer demand and currency looking at the regions Latin.
America achieved 4% organic growth, although Europe declined 3% organically performance improved sequentially from the third quarter and we believe the more significant impacts from U K channel Destocking are now behind US North America was down 7% as a result of lower consumer and DIY market.
Demand as well as the third quarter carrying heavier holiday promotional shipments compared to last year U S. Retail point of sale were supported by price increases and professional demand compared to a pre COVID-19 2019 baseline the fourth quarter Pos growth was consistent with the growth levels experienced in the third.
Third quarter of 2022 aggregate weeks of supply in these channels and in a week and a half below 2019 level.
Adjusted operating margin for the segment was 1% in the quarter as the benefit from price realization was more than offset by commodity inflation higher supply chain costs planned production curtailments and lower volume for the year operating margin was eight 4% down versus prior year turning to the strategic.
<unk> business units for the full year power tools declined 5% organically due to weakness in consumer and DIY and front half constraints related to electronic components. These volume impacts were partially offset by the benefits of our price increases and the continued performance of our strong to Walt cordless in.
Innovation across our flexible atomic and extreme product families as well as our new and differentiated power stack battery packs hand tools declined 5% organically in the year.
Consumer related headwinds were partially offset by price realization as well as new product innovation, notably the default impact connect which consists of accessories that attached to and impact driver, allowing up to four times faster cutting and standard hand tool. We also benefited from innovation in storage solution such.
As mobile tool storage within the top system and the Craftsman premium F 2000 metal storage platform. The outdoor business declined 7% organically on a pro forma basis for 2022 due to the difficult outdoor season outlined earlier in the year the fourth quarter marked the one year anniversary of the MTR.
<unk> and <unk> acquisitions, and we're pleased with the progress made to advance the outdoor platform integration. We now have a combined dealer channel sales team and launch from one go to market approach to grow share.
Activated a brand portfolio strategy, leveraging the Walt Cub cadet and Hustler and the pro and high end resi market segment or targeting Craftsman, Troy belt Wolf Garten, and black and Decker for the residential end user I don't know acknowledge and thank the entire team for their dedication to this process and ongoing commit.
<unk> to delivering the best products for our customers now shifting to industrial which had another strong quarter recording 10% organic growth and double digit adjusted operating margin segment revenue declined 1% versus last year at nine point of price realization and one point of volume were offset by five.
Some currency and six points from the oil and gas divestiture the team leveraged the price increases and volume growth to overcome commodity inflation and higher supply chain costs to deliver adjusted operating margin of 11, 5% up sequentially 40 basis points and up 220 basis points versus last year.
Looking within this segment engineered fastening organic revenues were up 9% in the quarter led by aerospace growth of 37% and auto growth of 14%, which were partially offset by industrial markets Aerospace fasteners delivered its sixth consecutive quarter of sequential revenue improvement as well.
Covered in commercial OEM production continues the auto fasteners strong quarter demonstrated by the businesses ability to gain share in a dynamic environment and outpaced global light vehicle production in the quarter and for the full year.
Attachment tools organic revenues were up 18% driven by strategic pricing actions.
Our orders, particularly from our dealer channel partners have been moderating our backlog remains above 2019 levels.
We continue to make progress with our inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, taking out nearly $500 million and resulting in a total second half inventory reduction of $775 million. Our production curtailment actions have been successful helping to reduce DSI by approximately 20 days in the quarter.
It was good to see the significant inventory reduction in the second half translate into free cash flow generation in the fourth quarter as we look to the front half of 2023, we are targeting another $500 million reduction with the majority of this progress to be made in the second quarter, Although we typically see a seasonal inventory build.
<unk> as we prepare for the outdoor and spring selling season, we have the ability to work down our input materials and components as well as drive commercial actions to sell through finished goods.
Our full year 2023 inventory reduction target is $750 million to $1 billion.
Which will drive significant cash flow generation that will be used to pay down debt and further strengthen our balance sheet. The timing of this reduction is demand dependent in a few moments I'll cover how these assumptions impact the 2023 guidance range turning to gross margin, we expect the impact of planned production.
Curtailments and higher cost inventory liquidations will continue to weigh on margins through the first half of 2023, resulting in margins in the low twenties production curtailments in the fourth quarter were down approximately 30% versus the long term average and impacted gross margins by approximately 6% to seven points in the quarter.
<unk> and our base case, we expect to improve from these levels, but not fully east production curtailments until the third quarter of 2023, which should support our gross margin recovery into the mid to high <unk> in the back half the normalized production and better gross margins could potentially shift earlier or later in the year, depending on the AUM.
<unk> demand environment and the speed of Destocking.
We have the team focused on inventory reduction cash generation and balance sheet health as we work to drive gross margins to our historical 35% plus target level in 2025.
Now walk through how the company is planning for three demand scenarios for our 2023 guidance as the macroeconomic outlook remains dynamic our base case scenario assumes a modestly unfavorable market demand environment compared to what we experienced during the second half of last year. In this scenario we are assuming total.
Organic growth to be down low single digits with the first quarter being the toughest comp tools and outdoor total organic revenue inclusive of positive price is expected to be down low single digits. While industrial is planned for low single digit growth specifically for tools and outdoor this would imply a full year.
Volume decline of approximately 5% ahead of our forecast for the market for the second half volume is expected to be down 3% to three 5% and.
In this base case, we would maintain our production curtailments with the goal of returning to normalized levels in the third quarter. As a result, the under absorption of fixed manufacturing costs would continue to constrained first half 2023 operating margin to low single digits as production returns to normalized levels in the back half of the year we.
Pet operating margin rate to improve to the mid to high single digit range. While our teams are aggressively focused on capturing deflation. This scenario does not include moderating commodity prices benefiting the P&L until late 2023 after the destock and can be a positive driver heading into 2024.
As we monitor the demand environment, we will be measured in the timing and magnitude of our investments and reinvesting into our businesses at the point of impact as part of our transformation strategy and our base case scenario includes approximately $125 million of annualized reinvestment targeted at commercial leadership and driving innovation.
<unk> and complexity reduction shifting to our second half acceleration scenario. This contemplates the possibility of a stronger demand environment supporting organic growth in the second half of 2023 total organic growth would be relatively flat for the year to support the improved second half demand production levels with normalized.
Towards the end of the second quarter.
This scenario would position us to deliver high single digit operating margins in the second half as well as an elevated level of reinvestment to accelerate our transformation. Lastly, we are preparing a downside case that reflects a deceleration of demand due to elevated recessionary pressures in this case, we expect full year organic.
<unk> revenues to decline by mid single digits with volume declines in both the tools in our door and industrial segments. If this were to occur or production curtailments would likely continue through the end of 2023, extending the timeline of our gross margin recovery under this scenario, we would opt to conservatively needed the level of <unk>.
Investment until we had more clarity on the extent and duration of the macro impacts an economic cycle. Overall, we feel it's prudent to consider this range of potential 2023 demand possibilities production and reinvestment levels as we continue to prioritize inventory reduction and cash generation as such.
We are guiding full year adjusted earnings per share in a range of zero to $2.
On a GAAP basis, we expect the earnings per share range to be negative $1 65 to positive 85.
<unk> of one time charges from the global supply chain optimization and the remaining outdoor integration related expenses. The current pre tax estimate for one time charges is approximately $225 million to $325 million.
With $50 million to $100 million and noncash charges.
Now some added quarterly context from our base case for the first quarter, we're expecting similar levels of operating profit to what we delivered in the fourth quarter. However, we do not expect the discrete tax benefit to repeat resulting in a first quarter adjusted loss of <unk> 75 per share at the midpoint, we believe.
Profitability can improve sequentially into the second quarter, resulting in a stronger performance in total we expect our actions.
[noise] III, but will translate to positive first half free cash flow driven by $500 million of inventory reduction most of which will come in the second quarter.
As we get through the first half destock, we expect earnings to inflect positively in the second half of the year generating an annualized EBITDA run rate of approximately one three to $1 7 billion.
We view this as a jumping off point to further improve with our transformation our guidance calls for $500 million to $1 billion of free cash flow in 2023, primarily from inventory reduction we're focused on our key priorities number one generate strong cash flow to inventory reduction to us.
Just with ongoing debt deleveraging number two sequential improvement in our gross margins as we drive further supply chain transformation initiatives and number three focus on gaining market share in all major categories. We're planning for that dynamic operating environment to continue until we have the strategy in place to successfully NAV.
Our path forward as we remain focused on driving above market long term organic growth with that I will now turn the call back over to Don.
Thank you Carmen.
So in summary, we successfully advanced our cost reduction and business transformation strategy over the last quarter and made meaningful progress on a number of key objectives, including inventory reduction cash generation debt reduction and streamlining our organizational structure and supply chain.
We have given you an indication today of what annualized EBITDA could be on the first step of this journey. We believe we can build from 2023 back half as our supply chain savings continue to accrue and contribute to the restoration of our gross margins to the 35% plus level. As we look ahead, we aim to get our levels of EBITDA.
Back to 2019 levels and beyond as we continue to transform our business while the macroeconomic environment is uncertain in 2023 will clearly bring US challenges. We are prepared to navigate forward and believe our actions to reshape focus and streamlined our organization as well as reinvest in our core businesses will enable us to deliver strong <unk>.
Shareholder value over the long term via robust organic growth and enhance profitability with that we are now ready for Q&A Dennis.
Great. Thanks, Dan Shannon, we can now start Q&A. Please thank you.
Thank you.
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Our first question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is now open.
Hi, good morning.
Maybe.
Good morning, just one question would be around I guess, two quick thoughts one would be it looks like you're guiding for sort of positive price I think in tools. This year, maybe the conviction in that.
Given what seems to be a lot of inventory kind of out there with customers and competitors.
And then also.
The second part would just be heard what you said on the annualized EBITDA run rate.
Are we still assuming a sort of $7 plus also of EPS potential.
Stanley in the medium term based off that or has that view changed.
Yes, so I'll start and then carbon probably will add a little color too and both of those topics, but I would say that.
Our price model adds about a point and a half to two points in it for the year for 2023.
Dan.
Based on where we are now with commodity prices.
You've seen some.
Improvement a reduction but overall when you look at the basket of commodities for US, we really don't see any significant deflation and a little bit of inflation here in the first half of the year.
So we still see based on that that we can maintain price throughout the year now your question on the angle of Theres a lot of inventory in the channel and therefore are we going to have to take specific.
Promotional actions that might be unusual to drive inventory out of the channel, which therefore would impact our price.
We really see that in our plan today.
We see normal promotional activity in the spring and the father's day season, and then of course in the later stages around Thanksgiving.
And other holidays at the end of the year and so at this point, we do not believe there is a need to do anything unusual around pricing activities to push things to the channel.
One thing I'll, just point out related to inventory levels in the channel for us specifically.
Actually feel where the inventory is and our customers.
Pretty reasonable at this point and it's actually down a little bit from 2019 levels.
Probably about a week to two weeks down from those levels, which is a good place to be and we feel like we've gone into the year with the adequate amount of inventory in their stores.
We're dealing with is higher levels of inventory in our own distribution network that we have to work too.
2023, and probably some early stages of 2024, but the vast majority of that reduction is going to happen this year.
23.
The second question was related to the long term long term EPS medium term and the $7 and some commentary around that so I think if you as you start to dissect the guidance were providing at the midpoint.
You'll see that the back half.
Is getting itself close to a couple of dollars, yes for this year.
And if you annualize that and factor in seasonality from the outdoor season that happens in the first half of the year, primarily probably trending something for 2024, that's closer to $5.
Now that assumes that we deal with an environment that we have guided here, which is the midpoint is pretty muted from a volume perspective.
As you heard from carbon in his presentation.
Cash is assuming for the tools and outdoor business.
The organic performance will be down about three points.
As a result.
That's really seeing a continuation of current trends on the consumer side, but also likely.
Some slowing on the pro side as you start to look at lower housing start numbers lower repair remodel numbers year over year and as a team.
We think this year, we will see a negative organic performance and our base case now that doesn't play out and the performance is stronger you heard from carbon and that it could be two to three points better.
For the year and obviously the back half would be a better performance as well if that played out.
And then you went into 2024 with that type of momentum there could be a case, where you actually do work yourself closer back to the $7. So I think we're probably at this point somewhere around $5 will.
Eventually having a possibility if the volume and demand is stronger than our base case, where it could be higher than that.
Anything you want to add to that equipment now the only thing that's really maybe for your model from a from a pricing standpoint, we're going to have some price carryover in the first half of a point or two and then that obviously anniversaries out by the second half.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Tim Welsh with Baird. Your line is now open.
Yeah, Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for thanks for all the details.
Don maybe just kind of following on to your question.
The answers from the last question just.
What are you seeing from the pro today, and I guess kind of what within the scenarios that you've outlined I mean, what are you kind of assuming that the protocols.
As you kind of walk through 2023.
Yes, I would actually say coming out of the gate here in 2023, if we're just one month under our belt, we're actually not seeing any slowing of the CRO. So the pro business continues to be healthy.
As we talk to our customers they say the same thing.
What we are though forecasting in our model is a slowing down of some of that activity.
When you look at the organic projection that we have for our tools and outdoor business. We expect it to slow down as we get deeper into the year and for that to continue in the back half of the year in a modest way and.
So I think thats, a reasonable assumption when you given when you start to look at things like housing starts and the projections for housing starts.
<unk> remodel what our customers are saying and their expectations are around likely performance year over year and what you hear from many of the peers in this space as well I mean, everybody seems to be thinking that the market will probably be down somewhere 3% to 5%.
And Thats kind of where we are with our tools and outdoor business.
And it aligns very much with the trends youre seeing in construction.
And I think it is a good base case to start with but as I said before it could be better than that.
If the pro doesn't weaken as much as I just described but also it could be worse than that which I think our downside case covers that as corporate articulated very well in his presentation.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Thanks, Good morning, and thanks for the question.
Just on the inventory reduction that I think you're still going to be carrying a $5 billion that have been treated.
At year end, so just wondering why not even more aggressive on the inventory reduction.
There are risks that that could carry forward into trying to April .
And maybe just address the dividend we've got a few questions. This morning.
Is there any scenario you look at.
This is a scenario where you might have to revisit the dividends this year.
Thanks for the questions.
Sure.
On the inventory.
Part of your question I feel like.
After a $1 billion.
$757 million to $50 million of $1 billion.
Is the reasonable level that we should pursue given where our business model is today and our supply chain is today.
Could we over time over the next 12 months to get to a number above $1 billion, yes, that's possible.
It probably wouldn't be dramatically above that number though.
Now as you go into 2024, I don't think Theres a need for another major step down in inventory.
I think what we're going to see things go the way we would like them to go in 2023, we will get a substantial chunk of inventory out in the first half of the year a lot of that probably in Q2.
We'll do some more at the end of the year.
The fourth quarter, which tends to be part of the normal routine of our company.
And beyond that I think it's just going to get back to managing and optimizing the supply chain to maximize the efficiency of it and we will continue to drive down inventory, but it won't be.
At the.
Having an impact on our production it'll be more managing it efficiently looking at how we.
Do certain types of activities that drive reductions of $2 $50 million to $500 million each year for maybe the subsequent two years.
More of that magnitude and I think thats, the right way to look at it.
I really would like to get production levels back to normal in the back half of 'twenty. Three that is our goal. We think it's achievable based on our base case right now.
And we'll continue to look at that obviously carbon articulated that the downside case, if we if we saw demand being even worse than the production levels would have to stay lower probably through the remainder of the year.
But in our base case, I think there's a good chance we can get production levels back to normal in the summertime is 23.
And the dividend.
Good question. Thank you for asking that the dividend continues to be a very important part of our capital allocation strategy.
We believe that.
As a necessary thing for us to maintain the level of the dividend that we have today will continue to evaluate that through the remainder of the year, but there is no change in that strategy at this stage.
Obviously buying back stock is not an opportunity for us given the leverage we have on our balance sheet.
And so therefore returning.
Back to our shareholders. The main lever we have today is our dividend.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Mike Rehaut with Jpmorgan. Your line is now open.
Okay.
Mike Rehaut with Jpmorgan. Your line is open please check your mute button.
Sorry about that.
I appreciate the taking my question.
Just wanted to make sure I fully appreciated the base case in terms of you said earlier that.
It incorporates a view around repair remodel activity being down also low single digits.
Just wanted to make sure I understood. That's right I mean, obviously you have existing home sales turnover trending down 30% year over year currently.
And I think.
That might be at least in our view a little optimistic.
But just wanted to understand.
Sure.
Assumptions behind that.
And also if I could just kind of shift gears.
On the modeling side depreciate any.
Views on some of the.
Other line items from a guidance standpoint.
Corporate expense interest expense other net some of those line items would be helpful. Thanks.
Hey, Michael I'll take that on the on the base case, as we said that the whole company. We view in the base cases being down two to three points organically volumes more than that there is some coverage from price. If you look at tools organically tools would be down about 3% to five points vol.
<unk> down five a little bit.
<unk> from <unk>.
And then the second half as Don mentioned.
Volumes down in the kind of three to three 5% and from an industrial standpoint, we see that being up low single digits, both from price and from volume. So that's that's the case for how.
Have we got to the base case.
I think the other thing that I would add is.
We.
If you look back in history of Stanley Black <unk> Decker.
And if you kind of put the great recession in 2019 and totally different category because we had.
A significant amount of overbill residential inventory in particular in housing.
And let's say.
It's an unusual situation, that's probably not indicative of where we are today.
Because we don't have that type of overbuild.
Situation that we don't have the same type of.
Leverage.
Issues within the consumer and the housing market as well.
Other recessions.
Stanley Black <unk> Decker has historically experienced the average decline has been about 3% to 5%.
And so when you think about it from that perspective.
Recognize that we just went through a period of time, where we're dealing with supply constraints and then a bit of a consumer dip into back half of 'twenty two.
Now, we believe we're going to see a bit of a pro dip here in 2023.
We're kind of aligned with our 3% to 5%.
2023 with that historical point of view.
There hasn't been many recessions and instead of impacted housing beyond 5%, except for the one that I mentioned, which was the great recession, which is very different and unusual.
It's just something that we need to keep in mind as you factor all the different.
Scenarios that corvid went through in the presentation. It really center around our base case, our base case is very consistent with what history would say.
Hey, Mike.
To touch on your other question around specific line items as we said the corporate expenses, we've really targeted to get back to 2019 level, that's where we expect them and then interest because rates have gone up and the quantum has gone up youll, probably see an increase in interest expense of about 20%.
Yes.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Your line is now open.
Yeah.
Hi, good morning, everybody.
Good morning to the extent you can comment how does your pricing and tools <unk> storage achieved in <unk> compare with your channel partners.
Your home center pricing achieved I mean is there still a risk.
Major discounting.
To clear out inventory or are otherwise reflect demand environment or do you think that we've come close to balance there.
I think as we as well.
Look at the.
The pricing dynamics in tools and outdoor.
We are monitoring.
All of the different things that are happening across the different product families in categories.
The price.
And we really look at what our competitors are doing we're obviously paying attention to monitoring what we're doing as well and making sure it's consistent with our expectations, but we didn't see any major major turbulence in the market around pricing.
From our competitors during the fourth quarter.
We do see here random kind of what I would call promotional activities to move inventory through some of our customers.
Stores. So you saw some of that happened in the fourth quarter, but it didn't dramatically shift the pricing dynamic the list pricing dynamic in particular.
In that time horizon.
We will continue to monitor here going into 'twenty, three and make sure we stay focused on that throughout the year.
It's always something that we have to factor into our decision, making but we think the promotional calendar that we've built with our customers. So far for the for this year and the other activities that we're able to do will allow us to achieve.
The level of inventory reduction, we would like to get to which is at $750 million to $1 billion.
And.
We obviously have to be agile and flexible and look at what happens in the market, but at this stage, we're not seeing any irrational pricing activity.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS. Your line is now open.
Thank you.
So I wanted to ask about the gross margin recovery during 2023, and when we see gross margin growing from the 20% currently to the mid to high <unk> by the back half of the year could you provide just a bit more color on the buildup here between the improvement of just getting past the destock versus some of the benefits.
Of the phase one supply chain transformation plan starting to come through thank you.
Yes, you bet.
Chris So the gross margins as we said in the second half of 2022 on average we're around 22% and there was probably about a four point penalty driven by production curtailments on liquidity and the high cost inventory.
We go through the course of 2023 that four point penalty slowly starts to decline to about three and a half and then to two five points by the end of the year and again, it's a mix between.
We don't as I mentioned in my view on our guidance, we don't expect production curtailments to continue throughout the whole course of the year. So that will help us and then as we liquidate the high cost inventory that also helps us so by the end of the year on a on an incurred basis, we will see margins slightly above 25 25.
5%, but there will still be a little bit of penalty that would get us into the high <unk>.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Dan Oppenheim with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Great. Thanks, very much I was wondering.
The plan is in.
In terms of inventory, where you've talked about there is situations would impact production, but it doesn't seem as though you would change your goals in terms of that 751 billion reduction inventory why not think about reducing inventory by more is there something in the supply chain, that's leading you to think about keeping.
A higher level than we've had historically, what's the overall thought there in terms of why not more.
Sure.
Yes, I would say the range actually is indicative of the range of EPS.
So.
If the low end of range of EPS played out.
Corbin articulated then we'd probably be looking at $7 50.
Terry reduction, even though we would be continuing curtailments.
The demand levels would be much lower and so you'd have two to three points lower demand versus the base case.
The high end of the case I think the $1 billion becomes very achievable, because youre dealing with much higher levels of demand where organic for tools and outdoor we'd probably be flat year over year.
And therefore, the $1 billion feels more achievable in that environment and Youre getting your production levels back to normal levels in the back half of the year, maybe sooner and so that's where the range kind of plays out as I mentioned earlier in response to Nigel is question I do think.
If demand is stronger in the back half, we could see a possible.
Movement above the $1 billion I don't think it would be.
Dramatic number.
A few hundred million dollars above that it certainly makes sense and so that's really where that range comes from it really correlates well with EPS.
Range, which correlates well to the demand associated.
Associated with those three different scenarios.
Thank you.
Next question comes from the line of Nicole to Blaze with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Yes, thanks, good morning, guys.
Yeah.
Just to maybe piggyback on one of the earlier questions can you just give a little bit more color on the ramp of the cost savings that you guys expect to achieve throughout 2023, what's baked into the base case and then any help at all on as we think about 'twenty four and 'twenty five.
It might be a bit early to give us explicit numbers, but it's more of the plan coming through in 'twenty four or is it more backend loaded towards the end of the three year period. Thank you.
Hey, Nicole its carbon I'll take it so.
As Don mentioned in 2022 in the second half, we got about $200 million of savings and as we look into 2023 from an SG&A standpoint, we expect to get about $300 million.
About 70% of that will come in the front half and about 30% will come in the back half as you lap 2022, and then on the on the Cogs side, we expect about $450 million and that will build throughout the year. So Q1 will be a little bit higher and then it will build into Q3, Q and <unk> will be pretty even.
Yeah, and I think for 24 and 25, I mean were trying <unk>.
With the numbers that you just heard we believe we'll have $1 billion.
Value creation by the end of 'twenty three.
And then there is another $1 billion related to the supply chain transformation and the subsequent two years 'twenty four 'twenty five.
Right now based on the plan, we have set our operations and business teams are collectively work together on that $1 billion has a specific level of detail and actions that are associated with it.
We believe are close to being rock solid and therefore, we do think in those two years, we'll probably get about $500 million or so of that in each year and.
We'll see as we get deeper into 2023, whether more comes in 2000.
<unk> 24 versus 25 time will tell but at this stage it feels like the way that we're phasing this because it is a.
A pretty significant level of transformation that we're doing across our supply chain and we need to be thoughtful as to when we do different phases of it. So we don't cause any major disruption to our customers, which is why it's going to take three years to do at the same time. It's also why the value probably would be pretty evenly prorate. It.
Over a three year time horizon.
Thank you our.
Next question comes from the line of Eric Bossard with Cleveland Research. Your line is now open.
Good morning. Thanks.
I'm curious on Don you talked about 24 of.
$5 to $7 in rough frame.
And I know six months ago that was the concept for 'twenty three.
So notably different in 'twenty, three that pushed out that level of earnings to 'twenty four.
Yes, I would say, there's a couple of dynamics I mean, obviously volume continues to be challenging we think volume is going to be challenging for 2023, I talked about what I think is going to happen with the pro market in 'twenty three we will see a modest recession.
And with the historical recessions are for Stanley Black <unk> Decker of down 3% to 5% clearly thats a significant factor in all of this we're also we've decided to be much more aggressive in the inventory reduction and then when we're thinking three five months ago.
We're going to be more methodical in that reduction were being more aggressive or really trying to get a large part of this done by the middle of 'twenty three to get production levels as I've said back to normal in the back half of 'twenty three.
And those are probably the two main drivers of the difference in the timing.
Great. Thanks, that's helpful.
Thank you I'll hand, the call back over to Dennis Lange for closing remarks.
Shannon Thanks, we'd like to thank everyone again for their time and participation on the call. Obviously, please contact me if you have further questions. Thank you.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation you may now disconnect.
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