Q4 2022 Skywater Technology Inc Earnings Call

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Speaker 1: Thanks for watching!

Speaker 2: Please stand by. We're about to begin.

Speaker 2: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the SkyWater Technology fourth quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode, and please be advised that this call is being recorded. Thank you.

Speaker 2: After the speaker's prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star one on your telephone keypad. And if you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. And at this time, I'll turn things over to Ms. Claire McAdams, head of investor relations. Mr. Adams, please go ahead.

Speaker 3: Thank you, operator. Good afternoon and welcome to SkyWater's fourth quarter fiscal 2022 conference call. With me on the call today from SkyWater are Thomas Sonderman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Steve Manko, Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker 3: I'd like to remind you that our call is being webcast live on Skywater's Investor Relations website at ir.skywatertechnology.com.

Speaker 3: The webcast will be available for replay shortly after the call concludes.

Speaker 3: On our IR website, we have also posted an investor slide presentation to accompany today's call.

Speaker 3: During the call, any statements made about our future financial results in business are forward-looking statements.

Speaker 3: These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially.

Speaker 3: For discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our earnings release filed on Form 8K today, our fiscal 2021 10K filed on March 10 of last year, and subsequent 10Q filings.

Speaker 3: All forward-looking statements are made as of today and we assume no obligation to update any such statements.

Speaker 3: During this call we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures. You can find a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures in our earnings release as well as in our Q4 earnings presentation, both of which are available on our Investor Relations website.

Speaker 3: With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

Speaker 4: Thank you, Claire, and good afternoon to everyone on the call.

Speaker 4: We are pleased to report a strong finish to 2022 with new records achieved in quarterly revenues, gross profit, and EBITDA.

Speaker 4: Q4 revenues exceeded our expectations and were a record $65.1 million, growing 24% higher than our previous record set in Q3.

Speaker 4: This revenue upside helped drive fiscal 2022 growth above our long-term target of 25% to $213 million for the year.

Speaker 4: The record revenue level, along with strong gross margin performance in the second half, helped drive the significant improvement in our 2022 financial metrics, which included record EBITDA for Q4 and overall positive EBITDA generation for the full year.

Speaker 4: Unique to the fourth quarter was a one-time revenue recognition event that was non-cash and which increased total ATS revenues by $4.7 million. This occurs when the revenues for a particular program are fixed and the expected timing or duration the program is pulled in.

Speaker 4: For example, we witnessed the opposite effect in 2021 when certain programs were delayed or elongated and with total program revenues fixed, this reduced the amount of revenue we could recognize each quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2022, a successful multi-year government program, which was a

Speaker 4: came to completion earlier than originally scheduled, and this required all the remaining revenue for the program to be recognized in the fourth quarter and without any associated costs.

Speaker 4: Absent this impact, our revenues for the quarter were still a bit stronger than forecast, but the upside driven by increased productivity gains and our ability to increase the number of ATS activities in the FAB.

Speaker 4: Unlike the $4.7 million revenue recognition event, we expect the higher levels of revenues resulting from productivity gains to continue in the forthcoming quarters. And therefore, we are pleased to report today that we see the $60 million level as our new expected for the baseline from which to grow.

Speaker 4: Our gross margin performance in Q4 also demonstrated continued strong flow-through on the incremental revenue growth. We set new quarterly gross margin records well ahead of our gross margin expansion plans. The revenue recognition event in Q4, which had no associated costs, benefited gross margin by approximately 600 basis points.

Speaker 4: As we enter another growth year for SkyWater, we expect gross margins to range between 15 and 20 percent as we anticipate quarterly revenues continuing at the $60 million plus level.

Speaker 4: As people detail later, our quarterly revenue growth in 2023 and the resulting gross margin performance will depend on a number of factors.

Speaker 4: most notably on our mix of ATS programs, customers, and tool-derived revenues.

Speaker 4: Yet one aspect unique to SkyWater and a challenging macro environment is that our expected growth this year will be derived from established, funded, and relatively secure ATS and Wafer Services programs. As a result, we expect to achieve revenue growth in 2023 that approaches our long-term objective of 25% annually.

Speaker 4: Today, in my prepared remarks, I will focus on the high-level business drivers and financial improvements that comprise how we look at the progress made in 2022, the look-ahead for 2023, and the longer-term objectives we are driving to further accelerate Skywater's performance next year and into 2025. For more information, visit www.skywater.com

Speaker 4: Note that I will keep my comments relatively brief on today's call. In each of our 2022 earnings calls, we elaborate on the details and competitive advantages supporting several important and strategic growth areas for us, such as our RAT, our platform, our RH90.

Speaker 4: We have also detailed the ways we believe we are uniquely positioned to benefit from all major components of CHIPS Act funding, not only for the Purdue Fab, but also for our other growth projects in Minnesota and Florida.

Speaker 4: We have discussed our strategic partnerships and collaborations with Google, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, Quick Logic, Case, Trusted Semi, NanoDX, Webit Nano, Deca, Audia, and more. All of these discussions on our previous calls remain highly relevant and consistent with our story.

Speaker 4: as we enter 2023. Reflecting on the highlights from FSCO 2022, we believe it was an important year of progress towards our long-term financial and business objectives, and importantly, a year of significantly improved execution as we built the foundation for continued strong growth and operating leverage in the years to come.

Speaker 4: These are the key takeaways we'd like to summarize from our financial results and business developments.

Speaker 4: First, we executed well on our revenue growth objectives for the year. This included both the significantly improved pricing terms for our wafer services business and the nearly 50% year-over-year growth in our ATS business net of tool sales.

Speaker 4: The strong growth in ATS reflected significant improvements in productivity as the team responded aggressively to customer demand, accelerating the velocity of R&D and our FAFs. The growth in ATS also reflected the U.S. government's increased commitment to skywater with the strategic, rad-hard investments.

Speaker 4: This increased confidence from the U.S. government achieved during 2022 has set the stage for anticipated continued revenue growth on multiple mission critical programs.

Speaker 4: We believe our success on these types of programs also positions us to be a major beneficiary of subsequent CHIPS funding.

Speaker 4: Next, in 2022, we executed on our commitments to deliver strong gross profit flow-through in excess of 50%.

Speaker 4: We are now generating positive EBITDA and strengthen our balance sheet through a combination of new equity raises and the refinancing of our debt.

Speaker 4: With each of these key takeaways from the year just ended, we demonstrated improved execution against a consistent backdrop of increasing customer demand.

Speaker 4: We trust that as a result we have increased investor confidence in our ability to deliver continued progress towards our financial targets and business objectives.

Speaker 4: As we look to our expectations for 2023, we intend to communicate a few important metrics and objectives that we believe are indicative of our performance, all of which we expect to play out quite favorably for Skywater this year.

Speaker 4: First, we expect to see continued growth in wafer services, which we anticipate will come as a result of further productivity gains, additional ATS customers transitioning to production later this year, and ongoing improvements in pricing as we take advantage of our unique capabilities in the market.

Speaker 4: We believe our ATS growth this year will be relatively decoupled from macro weakness in the semiconductor industry for several reasons. In our DOD and US government programs such as RAD HARD and other strategic areas of investment, these programs are established and funding is secured, provided we continue to execute on development milestones throughout the year.

Speaker 4: In our commercial programs, our customers' R&D investments remain robust and well-funded, even during this pause in industry growth.

Speaker 4: So while the overall semiconductor industry may be experiencing a downturn, it is important to recognize that the demand for innovation never rests. Our task business model continues to attract innovators with long tail applications addressing large-time opportunities.

Speaker 4: All this provides us with confidence that we expect to once again be able to deliver annual revenue growth in 2023, approaching our long-term goal of 25%.

Speaker 4: We also expect to achieve continued efficiency gains as a result of more automation and modernization. This includes the installation of a variety of new software capabilities and manufacturing tools that we are bringing online that will improve our capabilities, productivity, and yields going forward.

Speaker 4: Our 2023 objectives also include continued positive ebita growth and further strengthening of the balance sheet.

Speaker 4: We remain confident in securing CIP's funding to further expand the capabilities at our existing sites while transforming the industry with our unique Purdue partnership. Our team is preparing aggressively for their first round of funding submissions due later this month or in early March.

Speaker 4: Furthermore, our pipeline of commercial ATS programs continues to grow aggressively.

Speaker 4: which we believe positions us well for next year and beyond.

Speaker 4: We believe the momentum we will build in 2023, along with our expected efficiency gains, will position us for another strong year in 2024 as we continue to grow revenue and expand our gross margin profile.

Speaker 4: While we expect our growth in 2023 will be uniquely driven by strategic government programs,

Speaker 4: We believe 2024 will be a year when we see subsequent growth and multiple commercial programs that are ramping towards production this year. When coupled with increased absorption of our fixed cost of revenues from our new Radhard and Florida Fab investments, we will continue to see a growth and multiple commercial programs that are ramping towards production this year.

Speaker 4: and more favorable contributions from our wafer services business due to improved mix, we anticipate continued gross margin acceleration, positioning sky water consistently in the high 20s to low 30s level as we exit 2024.

Speaker 4: And while it may seem a long time from now, 2025 is right around the corner.

Speaker 4: That is the year we believe our model really comes together. By that time, we expect Skywater will be firmly established at the country's leading-edge pure-play foundry, providing both highly differentiated front-end wafer fabrication solutions and the most advanced semiconductor packaging technologies.

Speaker 4: We anticipate an important driver of top-line growth that year will be from the products manufactured on our RH Dining platform, which will create significant tailwind for our gross margin profile. We anticipate an important driver of top-line growth that year will be from the products manufactured on our RH Dining platform, which will create significant tailwind for our

Speaker 4: We also expect to have a more diversified and profitable wafer services business as multiple ATS customers with their improved margin profile move to volume production.

Speaker 4: This will also be the year that we expect most of today's unabsorbed cost of revenue will either be absorbed or behind us. These include not only RH90-related depreciation and costs associated with the startup of our Florida operation, but also the completion of the company's acquisition-related depreciation.

Speaker 4: All this means that we believe that we have a clear path to gross margins approaching our long-term target of 40% by the end of 2025. And finally, as we look beyond 2025 to the second half of the decade, Skywater expects our chips-enabled capabilities and other strategic initiatives to ignite accelerated growth in our company.

Speaker 4: as we aggressively drive towards our long-term revenue objective to be a billion-dollar semiconductor foundry within this decade.

Speaker 4: In summary, we believe the uniqueness of our business model and strong pipeline of customer demand positioned Skywater for several years of consistent growth despite the macro weakness currently facing the semiconductor industry. For 2023 specifically, multiple DoD programs are ramping and the funds are committed.

Speaker 4: which we believe substantially de-risks our revenue growth objectives during this otherwise soft year for semis.

Speaker 4: We expect to further build our revenue funnel this year with multiple commercial ATS programs that are well funded and considered highly strategic R&D investments by our customers and partners.

Speaker 4: Each of these are expected to become meaningful growth drivers for us in 2024. We also expect to have several tailwinds driving improvement in our gross margin profile for multiple years, as I described earlier. With 2025 expected to be the first year we can see our target long-term financial model come into fruition. For more information, visit www.fema.gov

Speaker 4: I want to close by conveying the strong confidence we have in our ability to execute successfully towards our long-term growth and profitability objectives. With our record of consistent execution in 2022, we expect to continue to build your confidence in our ability to execute as well.

Speaker 4: I'll now turn the call over to Steve for more information on Skywater's financial and operational performance in the fourth quarter, as well as further details on our outlook.

Speaker 4: on Skywater's financial and operational performance in the fourth quarter, as well as further details on our outlook. So Steve?

Speaker 4: Thank you, Tom. Total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2022 was $65.1 million, which was 24% higher than Q3 and up 69% from the fourth quarter of last year.

Speaker 4: Wafer Services revenues were consistent with the prior two quarters at $17.2 million, which represented 21% growth year over year.

Speaker 4: Included in Q4 ATS revenues of $47.9 million was a $4.7 million non-recurring and non-cash revenue event that Tom described earlier. Given that the total project revenues were fixed and the program concluded earlier than originally expected…

Speaker 4: we recognized all deferred revenue remaining for the program in Q4 and there was no cost of revenue associated. As a result, we exited 2022 with a new quarterly baseline revenue level of approximately $60 million, which was still modestly stronger than what we were expecting this time last quarter.

Speaker 4: The stronger revenue performance in ATS can be primarily attributed to productivity gains, which allow us to execute on large ATS programs such as Phase II of the RH90 program, leading us to exit 2022 with a higher baseline of revenues and gross profit from which to grow.

Speaker 4: Importantly, these productivity gains enabled us to generate incremental and more profitable customer program revenue which resulted in more favorable mix and significant flow-through to gross profit. Gap gross profit increased significantly in Q4 to $16.6 million or 25.4% of revenue.

Speaker 4: On a non-GAAP basis, which adjusts for impact of episodic tool sales, equity-based compensation, and forward to startup costs, gross margin was 26.2%. And, as Tom mentioned earlier, the revenue recognition event that was $4.7 million of 100% profit.

Speaker 4: benefited gross margin by approximately 600 basis points. We expect that our new baseline as we enter 2023 is now at the $60 million revenue level and roughly high teen's gross margins.

Speaker 4: The higher baseline for revenues and gross margin is the result of improved execution in our ability to increase overall ATS wafer moves, along with continued improvements in stabilizing fab operations.

Speaker 4: This includes reaching our target manufacturing headcount with reduced levels of attrition, at the same time as we increased automation and tool productivity and availability, all of which enabled us to move ATS wafers through the FAB faster, steadier, and more profitably given our execution of our cost reduction plan.

Speaker 4: To illustrate how our model reflects such high levels of operating leverage and flowthrough, in each of our last two earnings calls, I detailed the various components of our cost of revenues.

Speaker 4: In order to keep my comments brief, I'll invite you to refer to those two calls for all of the details, but essentially there are three components of our cost structure.

Speaker 4: wafer services driving our target fab utilization.

Speaker 4: ACS adding significant accretion to margin as we increase the volume of R&D wafers moving through the fab and eight to nine million dollars per quarter of costs that will either phase out or become absorbed as we grow the Radhard program and Florida operations in the next few years.

Speaker 4: While the 20% gross margin level is certainly ahead of schedule from what we expected to drive with our various ATS programs and cost reduction efforts, it is indicative of how quickly we can ramp gross margins towards our long-term targets in favorable business conditions.

Speaker 4: As we look to the first quarter, with revenues expected to be at or above the new baseline $60 million level, we expect gross margins within the range of the 15 to 20 percent, similar to the normalized levels achieved in the second half of 2022.

Speaker 4: At this time, our expectation for the forthcoming quarters is that revenue mix will continue to vary, including from the increased level of tool revenue and pass-through subcontractor revenue we expect in 2023.

Speaker 4: This will result in varying gross profit contributions quarter to quarter, which we expect will result in gross margin continuing to range between 15 to 20 percent as we grow from the low $60 million level to potentially high $60 million level later in the year.

Speaker 4: Moving now to the operating expenses.

Speaker 4: On a GAAP basis, operating expenses of $15.2 million were up about 14% from Q3. On a non-GAAP basis, which excludes equity-based compensation and poor to start-up costs, operating expenses were $14.1 million compared to $12.1 million in Q3.

Speaker 4: Of the $2 million increase, R&D came in below expectations, while SG&I expenses were higher due primarily to an increase in variable compensation due to the favorable performance in Q4 and the write-off of $1.1 million of customer accounts receivable.

Speaker 4: Given the strong revenue growth and significant improvements in gross margin, adjusted EBITDA was a record $10.3 million.

Speaker 4: This record adjusted EBITDA includes $4.7 million of pure profit in the quarter from the revenue recognition event.

Speaker 4: We expect continued generation of positive adjusted EBITDA in 2023.

Speaker 4: Interest expense was $2.9 million in the quarter, which included a charge for about $1 million on the debt refinance, and with no tax benefit, the GapNet loss was $0.7 per share, and the non-GapNet loss was $0.3 per share.

Speaker 5: Now I'll turn to the balance sheet.

Speaker 5: We ended the quarter with $30 million in cash and cash equivalents after we completed the refinancing of our revolver, sending a new $100 million, three-year, senior secured revolving credit facility that expands the company's available borrowing capacity.

Speaker 5: The new credit facility contains an accordion feature that allows the company to increase the size of the facility to as much as $130 million.

Speaker 5: We do not expect to maintain a similar amount of cash on the balance sheet at the end of first quarter 23 as we plan to use our working capital to pay down our revolver.

Speaker 5: Total debt outstanding increased to $92.9 million and included $60.1 million on our revolver and $36.8 million for our variable interest entities, excluding unamortized debt issuance costs.

Speaker 5: Since August , we have put into place additional funding alternatives as we continue our plans for growth. This includes the Universal Shelf Registration Statement filed for up to $250 million from which we completed an ETA market program for $3 million of equity proceeds in September was already office made for seek out.

Speaker 5: as well as a larger equity financing in November with net proceeds of $16 million.

Speaker 5: We believe these funding alternatives provide us with increased financial flexibility and liquidity that will help fund our expected growth, and the new larger facility is a reflection of our success over the past year as we have turned EBITDA positive and strengthened our credit profile.

Speaker 5: As you update your Skywater models, the following is some additional color for various components of our P&L for the year ahead.

Speaker 5: Quarterly research and development expenses are anticipated in the $2.3 to $2.5 million range, excluding stock-based compensation.

Speaker 5: Quarterly SGA expenses are expected to be approximately $10.6 to $11.1 million, excluding stock-based compensation.

Speaker 5: We anticipate stock-based compensation to range from approximately $1.9 to $2.4 million per quarter.

Speaker 5: Total depreciation for 2022 was $28 million, of which $6 million was related to the Radhart program and approximately $15 million was associated with the acquisition purchase accounting. We expect a similar depreciation profile for 2023.

Speaker 5: Total cost of revenue investments in Florida were $11 million in 2022, and we expect these will average approximately $3.2 to $3.6 million per quarter in 2023.

Speaker 5: We expect neutral to no tax benefit from our tax assets in 2023.

Speaker 5: With that, I'll turn the call back to Claire and welcome your questions on SkyWater.

Speaker 3: Thank you, Steve.

Speaker 3: Our upcoming investor activities include the Susquehanna Technology Conference being held virtually on March 3rd.

Speaker 3: Please visit the investor relations section of our website for other upcoming presentations. And as always, please feel free to reach out to me directly to arrange a call or meeting.

Speaker 3: Operator, please open the line for questions.

Speaker 2: Thank you, Ms. McAdams. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, any questions, please press star 1. And if you are joining us today using a speakerphone, we ask that you please pick up the handset before pressing star 1. We'll take our first question this afternoon from Chris Sankar at Calendly Company.

Speaker 6: Hi, thanks for taking my question and Tom and Steve congrats on the really good results. I have two questions. First one, on the roughly 25% or so growth this year you expect in revenue, how to think about basis service and APS and how to think about volume versus pricing.

Speaker 4: Yeah, so wafer services and ATS I would look at as having a fairly similar mix to what we exited Q4. We will obviously continue to grow both of these, but ATS will grow at a faster pace in wafer services, but we expect both of those businesses to grow.

Speaker 6: or is used for the existing projects? And also to their exposure, are you more exposed to the industrial or automotive side?

Speaker 4: Yeah, good question. So yes, the strategic relationship with Infineon obviously is an integral part of not only better pricing but also a stronger commitment from them to put more product in our fab here in Minnesota. I also think that

Speaker 4: you know, the overall trajectory given their concentration in automotive and, you know, the industrial space is very much aligned to Skywater. We are not very much exposed to the consumer sector. And because of a lot of the type of work we do, it's very...

Speaker 4: much aligned with the needs of Infinian. And so we expect that relationship to be foundational. But that said, we do have 50 active ATS programs that are also underway and all those eventually. Some percentage, I should say, will move into volume manufacturing.

Speaker 4: and that will over time decrease the concentration and dependence on Infinium.

Speaker 6: Thanks a lot, Tom, and nice to see the really good execution. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker 2: Thank you and I echo the congratulations on really solid results and gross margin improvement across all the metrics. That's good to see. Just Steve, a question on the margins if I can. So the 26% gross margin in Q4, you know, if you back up the 600 basis point impact from that.

Speaker 2: revenue recognition program related to that ATS, it's about 20% gross margin. You're kind of guiding to the 15 to 20 on a quarterly basis in 2023. So just can you maybe walk me through again that kind of mid-teens.

Speaker 2: gross margin when you kind of have 20% in Q4 on an apple to apple basis. I would expect that the margins might tend to be higher as you now are, you know, $60 million kind of run rate.

Speaker 7: on a go-forward basis.

Speaker 5: Yeah, good question. I think that we want to put that range out there for a couple reasons. You know, first off, like I talked about, we want to make sure that we have the opportunity to invest ahead of when revenue may be coming. So we talked a lot about what we're doing with advanced packaging and heterogeneous integration in Florida and getting that fab up and running and started. So I want to make sure that we're not being held to a 20% margin.

Speaker 5: probably not like what we saw in 2021 but likely more than what we saw in 2022. So again that can be good revenue that comes through but doesn't have the typical flow through like we see from our other ATS revenues that flow through as well. So with it I think your math is right so you're at the right starting point and it is a valid question of why we're not expecting 20% growing from there. I think that's obtainable.

Speaker 2: potential. So the 15 to 20 percent gross margin range.

Speaker 2: You talked about it contemplates some sort of tool revenue less than 2021, but more than 2022. So just to put a bracket on it, 2021 was $19 million of tool revenue, and I believe 2022 was $1.5 million. That's a huge range. When do we think we'll get a sense of what the

Speaker 2: Total revenue will be so where you know you can model that You know in terms of the timing

Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's a great question because just like we show in, you know, the tables that go along with our earnings release, we want to be transparent about not only the revenue that comes in from tools, but also what the cost of that tool revenue is. So we still had, you know, very minimal tool revenue coming in in the first quarter. I think what we'll talk about is very likely in the second quarter we'll have better transparency on what the revenue is.

Speaker 2: So, Tom, you very clearly outlined some of the growth drivers in this year, mostly the strategic government programs and then 2024, more of the commercial programs. When we're thinking about the 2024, the

Speaker 2: How much are you going to be increasing here and diversifying your customer base on the commercial side? Any potential end markets that are new that would be hitting the model in Counter24 on the commercial side? What would you say to the chan- object's mature market market?

Speaker 4: Yeah, good question again. I'm excited to talk about a lot of the development we've been doing and how it ultimately manifests itself in new products. One of the ones we talked about a lot last year was biomedical. We have multiple programs that are moving through.

Speaker 4: our pipeline that we expect to go into production later this year and into next year. Obviously photonics is an area of strength for us. We have multiple engagements in that space. These are targeted towards a data center as well as other applications.

Speaker 4: applications in both the automotive and industrial space. Of course, another area is, you know, we'll call it the ASIC base arena of IoT, given our CMOS foundation with 130 nanometer and 90 nanometer on our...

Speaker 4: technology that we receive from Cyprus, there's a lot of different applications that are being configured. But for the most part, they will be going into the traditional verticals we talked about, again with a limited exposure to the commercial space.

Speaker 2: Got it, great. And this last question for me...

Speaker 2: In terms of the pricing versus volume question that Chris mentioned, can you talk about your ability to kind of raise pricing on the commercial contracts, excluding Infineon.

Speaker 2: Are we still kind of in a favorable position with respect to capacity and the demand for those type of process nodes being imbalanced? Any thoughts in terms of the pricing over this year and over the course of maybe next year? Yeah. I think one of the unique things about SkyWater is that it's a very, very important thing

Speaker 4: on is we're getting better pricing for our ATS programs as we've demonstrated our technical capabilities, our ability to execute, our customers are willing to pay more to have access to our unique capabilities. We think not only as we enter an engagement that we have strength in our negotiation, but as we position our customers to be able to get more of our capabilities. We think that we're getting better pricing for our ATS programs as we've demonstrated our technical capabilities, our ability to execute, our ability to have access to our

Speaker 4: the products as they ramp to volume. We obviously take advantage of the fact that, you know, these are going to be new technologies on products that haven't been in the market before and where the single source provider. So by definition, again, we get to control the pricing. That the nice thing about being in the manufacturer is that you have a lot of influence.

Speaker 4: over ultimately how the products get to market and the pricing profile that takes them to market. And as we have grown and matured as a company, we've been able to get a lot more proactive in terms of how we create those arrangements.

Speaker 2: Thank you. Congratulations again. Thanks. Thank you. We go next now to Natalia Winkler at Jefferies.

Speaker 8: Okay, if I take my call, congratulations on the strong results. One of the things I wanted to confirm was I think back in 21, you guys had this kind of longer term CAFEX program that was around $56 million, I believe. Can you help us figure out where you guys are with that program? And I appreciate it's probably running over multiple years, but just kind of how –

Speaker 5: So as you mentioned, we're moving along the wades. A lot of the investment that you saw coming through our balance sheet this year and cash flow statement on the investments we made from the CapEx side do go against that investment that we committed to back in 2021. So it still will be a multi-year phase going through.

Speaker 8: and that will continue over the course of 2023 and in fact even into 2024. Understood. That's very helpful. And I guess Steve, the other question is really also about this idea of, you know, of your model being kind of capex light, right? And Tom has mentioned this goal of reaching 1 billion by 2020.

Speaker 8: and really beyond that.

Speaker 5: Yeah, so I'll talk about 2025 first because we'll focus on that in the near term. Really our model with what we're currently doing with our CapEx plan that we have in place, which you alluded to a portion of it, as well as the investments that we're getting from our customers, I think that will allow us to grow to those 2025 levels that we've been talking about. You know, clearly from there to go to what Tom alluded to, by the end of the decade, would take additional investment.

Speaker 4: what we haven't received a complete return on to really grow to our 2025 levels that we continue to communicate. And just to add the you know the capex like model essentially means you know the capital is still required but we partner with our customers to enable that investment to come into our facilities.

Speaker 4: Part of the way we will achieve that longer term, second half decade growth is through continued exploitation, frankly, of the model that we've created. We'll be leveraging our customers' investments and our technical and manufacturing capabilities to bring that combination together to get our customer products to market.

Speaker 8: That's very helpful. Thank you guys. And Steve, I just wanted to clarify one little thing from the prepared remarks. I think you mentioned that you have the startup costs still in the model at the moment, which are around $7 million to $9 million per quarter related to the ramp of Florida and Red Heart. Did I catch that right? I think in the past.

Speaker 5: you also provided sort of a split between the different lines, is there a way for us to kind of think about that number going forward? Yeah, the 7.9 would not be related to the start of cost. Don't know exactly which one you're referring to, I know that we talked about there are about.

Speaker 5: to $9 million of quarterly costs that are flowing through that will either fall off or be absorbed within the next couple of years. But I did prepare in my comments an expectation for some of the quarterly ranges on the various components of our operating expenses. But it wasn't in relation to the $7.9 million, so that maybe.

Speaker 9: Yeah, hey guys my congratulations as well excellent quarter and guide So Tom I wanted to understand where the majority of the upside might have come from even if I take out the 4.7 million That you got that's not requiring one-time revenues was it I guess from a color angle. You know was it more?

Speaker 4: business is an existing customer or was it one or two customers stepping up or just any kind of color you can provide would be helpful? Yeah, overall I think it was, you know, the Rad Harp program clearly was a big driver. We announced that program, the Phase 2 award.

Speaker 4: And the team just stepped up and was able to execute at a very high level to hit the milestones that were needed to trigger the revenue back into the company. And so I think that was certainly a big component and driver in the second half of last year. And then also just our overall execution in the fab. You know I've said-

Speaker 4: to be able to grow and scale the model that we've created. And I think we're seeing the efficiencies, the productivity, a lot of those capabilities. The investments that we have talked about and the automation side are beginning to pay dividends. And no one's ever really done this type of.

Speaker 4: high-level R&D in a volume manufacturing facility before. And I think we're all very excited about the potential we're seeing from this model as we continue to grow and scale it. Fair enough. And then a very similar question for the $60 million base that you cited as a starting base going forward.

Speaker 9: And I think Steve, you even went on the record and the guidance said it'll start in the most 60s and kind of finish in the high 60s as the year goes on. Is that also being helped by the Red Hot program or is that just kind of productivity and customers having confidence and stepping up and giving you more business? I was just curious. That was the first question.

Speaker 4: And then also, is that in backlog at this point in time, or is that being driven by sort of conversations you're having? I mean, I think, again, RAD-HARD will continue to play, you know, an important role, you know, this year and into 2024 as we prepare to start actually making products in 2025. The other is just the continued ramp of other programs that...

Speaker 4: You know, we've talked before as programs go through various phases, various gates, the spending tends to increase and a lot of the programs we were talking back in 2021 now have gotten larger and continue to grow and I think both of those components plus just the productivity improvements I just discussed give us confidence that where we exited Q4 we think.

Speaker 4: will really become a baseline as we grow throughout this year. The other thing is that we do have a lot of, I'll just call it maturing of the business and how we not only predict revenue, but how we bring customers into the business as I discussed earlier and then how we...

Speaker 4: work with them to take advantage of the semi-industry is in a correction right now. And there's a lot of customers that are really excited about getting their products to market for the next upturn. And so that is really taking advantage of our model in a unique way.

Speaker 4: and it allows us to show what our capabilities are in Iqalay. And I think that combination is what gives us confidence in 2023 that we can continue to grow at the 25% level or close to it. That's great, guys. Thank you so much. Congratulations again. Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker 2: We'll take our next question now from Richard Shannon of Craig Allen. Thanks guys for taking my questions and I'll let come back. Congratulations on some nice numbers, end of the year here. Let's see here, Tom, you used language here on some of your growth expectations for this year talking about funded programs.

Speaker 2: Fair to understand that with the US government type programs and customers here, but what about the commercial programs? What do you really have confidence that the ones that you're expecting to grow nicely here are actually funded and they won't be pulled in any way? Just to help us kind of put these together and give us a little more confidence on that, please. Yeah, so I'll start to see if there's any additional color. You know, obviously one of the things that

Speaker 4: and I think we feel very strongly, and as I put in my prepared remarks, that the engagements we have, the R&D investments our customers are making into our company are very much in a high-confidence level.

Speaker 4: not only because of the companies involved, but also the maturity of the technologies and the commitment of the investors in those technologies to get those products to market. So we do a lot more vetting when we bring a customer into the business. We obviously have a couple scars.

Speaker 4: where we didn't do that as well as we should have in earlier days. And so I think we feel like as we enter this year and go into next year and really bring some of these technologies to fruition, that the partners that we're choosing are maybe in a better place than some of the ones that we've had before.

Speaker 4: of in our earlier days. And so I think, you know, we feel like as we, you know, enter this year and go into next year and really bring some of these technologies to fruition that the partners that we're choosing are maybe in a better place than some of the ones that we've had before. Steve, anything to add?

Speaker 10: Thanks, Tom. Excellent. Let's see, my next question is some language used to be, and I think maybe at last call, or maybe two calls here about stabilization of fab operations and productivity. In the context of one of the other questions in your prepared comments here about gross margins.

Speaker 10: just finished that 20% excluding the big contract revenue recognition and you're expecting 15 to 20 things like that's implicitly stating you're not expecting any more improvement or stabilization and productivity. To what degree is that is that hit and add some top asymptote and you're not expecting more versus it could happen then you potentially see upside throughout this year.

Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean clearly we're going to continue to drive productivity improvement throughout the year. I think if anything, it's what Steve said earlier, is that we also expect some tool revenue to come into the mix this year. We have some subcontractors that are tied to the R&D program for RAD HARD that will come into play where the margins aren't.

Speaker 4: the same level as ATSO, our traditional ATSO. I think, and frankly, we're in a very, we'll call it cautionary environment at a macro level in terms of what's the overall economy gonna do here in the US. So I think all that is why we're cautiously optimistic about it.

Speaker 4: our ability to continue to grow and scale the business, but recognizing that there are going to be some different factors that hit the revenue line, and their margin profile will be somewhat different than what we had this year.

Speaker 4: ability to continue to grow and scale the business, but recognizing that there are going to be some different factors that hit the revenue line and their margin profile will be somewhat different than what we had this year. Steve, anything to add?

Speaker 10: Does that answer your question, Richard? Yeah, it did. Sorry, I was waiting for Steve to respond. If he did, I didn't hear anything there. My last question. He just nodded his head. Just nodded? Okay. Sorry. Great, thanks.

Speaker 10: All right, last question, I'll jump out of line here. Just any info you can give us on the 10% customers and they will probably see the 10K, but I'm wondering if you can give it to us for the fourth quarter or for the year, please Steve. Sorry, can you repeat, what was the question? 10% of what for the 10% customers? What were the 10% customers, either for the quarter or for the year? Yeah, we'll just wait for the 10K and we'll list those out like we do consistently.

Those will be in their customers, I believe, A3E for the fourth quarter. Okay, fair enough. That's all from you guys. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude our question and answer session today. We'd like to thank you all so much for joining the SkyWater Technology fourth quarter and financial results call. Again, thank you so much for joining us, and we wish you all a great evening. Goodbye.