Q4 2022 CNA Financial Corp Earnings Call
Speaker 2: And.
Speaker 3: Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the CNA 4th quarter 2022 earnings conference If you would like to ask a question at the conclusion of today's prepared remarks, you may press a star and then one.
Speaker 4: To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two.
Speaker 5: As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Ralisa Totorova, AVP Investor Relations for opening remarks and introductions of today's speakers. Please go ahead. Ralisa Totorova, AVP Investor Relations for opening remarks and introductions of today's speakers.
Speaker 6: Thank you, Jamie. Good morning and welcome to CNA's discussion of our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results. Our fourth quarter earnings press release presentation financial supplement were released this morning and are available on the investor relations section of our website, www.cna.com. Joining today will be Dina Rubusto, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
Speaker 7: and Scott Lindquist, Chief Financial Officer. Following the prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions. Today's call may include forward-looking statements and references to non- GAAP financial measures, any forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made during the call.
Speaker 8: Information concerning those risks is contained in the earnings press release and in CNA's most recent SEC filings. In addition, the forward-looking statements speak only as of today, Monday, February 6, 2023. CNA expressly describes any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements made during this call.
Speaker 9: Regarding non-GAAP measures, reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures and other information have been provided in our earnings press release, financial supplement, and other filings with the SEC. This call is being recorded and webcast. A replay of the call may be accessed on our website. If you are reading a transcript of the call, please note that the transcript may not be reviewed for accuracy. This is a test. This is a test. This is a test. This is a test. This is a test. This is a test. This is a test. This is a test. This is a test. This is a test.
Speaker 10: Thus, it may contain transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of the statement. With that, I will turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO , Dina Rubusto.
Speaker 11: Thank you, Rolita, and good morning all.
Speaker 12: CNA produced strong results in the fourth quarter, capping off a great year of underwriting performance.
Speaker 13: I'll start off by drilling down on the fourth quarter and then provide some detail on our
Speaker 14: Core income increased by 9 million in the fourth quarter to 274 million.
Speaker 15: Our PNC operations produced core income of $342 million, down only slightly compared to last year, even with cat losses nearly twice as large in the fourth quarter of this year compared to last year, and investment income was down due to lower returns on our alternatives portfolio.
Speaker 16: We were able to largely offset that with higher underlying underwriting gain and slightly more favorable prior period development.
Speaker 17: In the fourth quarter, the all-in combined ratio was 93.7%.
Speaker 18: An increase of only 0.8 points compared to the prior year quarter with pre-tax catastrophe losses of 76 million or 3.6 points of the combined ratio compared to 40 million or two points in the prior year period. Approximately 90% of our catastrophe losses in the quarter.
Speaker 19: We're from Winterstorm Elliott and the rest from several smaller events.
Speaker 20: Prior period development for PNC overall was favorable by 1.1 points on the combined ratio.
Speaker 21: The P&C underlying combined ratio was 91.2%.
Speaker 22: Consistent with last year and continues the string of underlying combined ratios of near record levels for seven consecutive quarters.
Speaker 23: The underlying loss ratio in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 59.9%.
Speaker 24: Found 0.2 points compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.
Speaker 25: The expense ratio of 31.1% was up slightly from last year. As usual, Scott will provide more details on expenses.
Speaker 26: In the quarter, we continue to achieve a strong production performance with 8% gross written premium ex-captives growth and 9% excluding currency fluctuation. Net written premium growth was 5% and 7% excluding currency fluctuation.
Speaker 27: Written rate increase was 4% in the quarter, down half a point, and renewal premium change remains strong at 7%.
Speaker 28: We continue to see strong exposure increases in inflation-sensitive lines like work comp, property and general liability.
Speaker 29: New business was down slightly in the quarter due to the reduced opportunities in management and liability that we mentioned last quarter.
Speaker 30: but it remained very strong in commercial, up 12% in the quarter.
Speaker 31: Retention remained high at 86% this quarter as the underwriters locked in the hard market benefits of increased pricing and substantially improved terms and conditions across the portfolio.
Speaker 32: Before commenting on the individual business unit results for the quarter.
The march to the 1-1 reinsurance renewal season was obviously a big focus for property treaties.
Now, our property treaties do not renew until June 1, but some of our third-party treaties did come up for renewal in the quarter, and the renewals went well. There was some minor movement in Seeding Commission on a few of the treaties, but we got all of the capacity we wanted.
and in some cases a little extra capacity in exchange for that movement.
And so the economics of our reinsurance coverage and seeding commission remain very favorable on these lines of business.
Turning to our three business units.
The all-in combined ratio for specialty was 88.8% in the fourth quarter, which is now the tenth consecutive quarter below 90%.
The underlying combined ratio was 89.4%, reflecting 0.7 points of improvement compared to last year.
The underlying loss ratio improved 0.7 points to 58.4 and the expense ratio of 30.8 was 0.1 points lower than last year.
Growth's written premium X captives growth for specialty was down minus 2% this quarter.
and net written premium growth was down minus 1%.
Growth was lower this quarter due to less new business from significantly fewer IPOs and M&A opportunities in the quarter compared to the same period last year which impacted our DNO line and program growth.
The rate was down 2 points to 3%, driven by the financial and management liability portfolio, where rates were flat in the quarter.
Within management liability, public D&O rates were negative after having achieved triple-digit cumulative increases over the hard market.
and the rate levels are still more than double what they were at the start of the hard market.
Private D&O rates were positive mid-single digit and cyber rate increases were high single digit.
Because of the large increases in these areas over the hard market, our specialty earned rate increases of about 8% in the quarter.
We're still well above our long run loss cost trends.
Retention was particularly strong at 88% for the second straight quarter with all lines in specialty achieving high retention levels.
Turning to commercial, the all-in combined ratio was 99%, producing a small underwriting profit in the quarter, even with catastrophes adding 7.2 points to the combined ratio compared to only 2.9 points in the same quarter last year.
The underlying combined ratio was 92.7%
with an underlying loss ratio of 61.5% stable year over year, while the expense ratio was up about a half a point to 30.8 in the quarter, but down 0.7 points to 30.4 for the full year.
Crosswritten premiums X captives grew by 16% this quarter.
and net written premium growth was 13%.
In the quarter, commercial renewal premium change was 9%.
up two points from the third quarter, and the strongest quarterly renewal change all year.
Rate change was 5% and exposure was 4%, both up a point in the quarter.
Rates were higher for almost all commercial products and lines of business in the quarter other than work comp.
where rate decreases were low single digit and relatively stable with the last seven quarters.
The most significant rate increases were achieved in National Accounts Property and let me provide a little more detail on property.
In anticipation of the 1-1 re-insurance renewals, rate increase in the fourth quarter was 18% in our national accounts property portfolio. Six points higher than it was in the third quarter, and rate in January has accelerated compared to the fourth quarter by an even greater magnitude.
So everything we are seeing is certainly indicating that we are entering another significant correction period and we are leveraging this mini hard market.
not only to get more rate, but to continue to push for better terms and conditions, which, as I have indicated to you in the past, tend to persist much longer in the hard market cycle.
It says broadly included substantially lower sub-limits and higher deductibles on severe convective storm, earthquake and named storm perils, which have a significant positive impact on controlling our catastrophe exposure.
while allowing us to continue to offer sustainable capacity to our clients.
On top of that, we continue to push hard to secure increased property valuations to ensure we have an accurate reflection of exposures.
We saw high single-digit valuation increases in TI-V at renewal in the fourth quarter, and that has continued in January .
We have strong capabilities and expertise to leverage property opportunities in the market.
However, we intend to underwrite growth cautiously in order to continue to manage our CAP-PML conservatively.
So while we currently expect to grow this portfolio throughout the course of the year, we expect the growth will be driven more from rate.
Outside of national accounts, rate was also up in middle market.
where it was a point higher than the third quarter.
Because of the package nature of this portfolio where property is sold together with other profitable lines like work comp and general liability, the middle market rate acceleration was more muted in the quarter as was true throughout the hard market.
In the quarter, the middle market renewal premium change was plus 8% excluding work comp.
And for work comp alone, renewal premium change was up mid-single digit.
both keeping pace with lost cost trends.
Commercial retention remains strong at 86% and has been quite strong all year.
For International, the all-in combined ratio was 88.9% this quarter, a six-point improvement over last year.
The underlying combined ratio was 91% stable with last year.
The underlying loss ratio of 58.1% is lower by 0.4 points and the expense ratio of 32.9 is a half a point compared to last year's fourth quarter, but down 0.8 points.
The 32.3% for the full year.
International gross written premiums grew 6% or 16%, excluding currency fluctuation.
Net written premiums grew 2%
or 12% excluding currency fluctuation.
Renewal premium change in international was plus 9%, split evenly between rate and exposure.
Retention was very strong in international 84% for the quarter. As here too, we are locking in the benefits of all the underwriting actions we have conducted and commented on previously, as well as the very strong terms and conditions and cumulative rate increase of 50% since the start of the hard market.
Now let me provide some perspectives on the full year. For the full year our core income was $1,048,000,000 or $3.84 per share, compared to $1,106,000,000 or $4.06 per share in 2021.
The decline in core income was driven by a decrease in limited partnership and common stock returns, partially offset by an increase in underwriting gain and an increase in investment income from fixed income securities.
Our PNC operations produced core income of $1,240,000,000 for the year, an increase of $56,000,000 over the prior year.
Underwriting income increased by 269 million to a record 559 million for the year.
This was partially offset by a $196 million decrease in net investment income due to lower LPN common stock returns.
The Olin Combine Ratio with a record low of 93.2%
The all-in combined ratio was a record low of 93.2% and 3 points lower than 2021.
This included $247 million of catastrophe loss versus $397 million in 2021.
We also had one point of favorable prior period development.
Our PNC underlying combined ratio of 91.2% for the year was a record low and marks the sixth consecutive year of improvement in the underlying combined ratio.
The underlying underwriting gain improved by $65 million to $730 million for the year, a 10% increase.
The underlying loss ratio was 60%, consistent with 2021. The expense ratio improved by 0.2 points to 30.9, the lowest since 2008.
All three operating segments produced very strong all-in and underlying combined ratios in 2022.
For specialty, the underlying combined ratio was 89.8%, our second consecutive year with a sub 90 underlying combined ratio.
We have effectively achieved a turnaround in our health care business due to extensive re-underwriting and focus over the last five years and we continue to cover the lost cost trends on this revamped portfolio with rate in the high single digits.
The All-In combined ratio for specialty was 88.6 the lowest since 2018.
Commercial produced an underlying combined ratio of 92.4, the lowest on record.
The all-in combined ratio of 97.3 was also the lowest on record.
For International, the underlying combined ratio was 90.8 and the all-in combined ratio was 91.8%, each of which is a record low.
Turning to production for the year, growth's written premium growth X-captives was 10% this year and 11% excluding currency fluctuation and the second consecutive year with double-digit growth. Net-written premiums were up 9% and 10% excluding currency fluctuation.
No business grew by 13% and was up over 200 million compared to last year.
Retention was very strong at 86% and was 4.5% higher than 2021.
Renewal premium change was 8% for the year.
with rates of 5% and exposures increasing 3%.
And with that, I'll turn it over to Scott.
Thank you Dino and good morning everyone. I will provide some additional information on our results as Dino indicated.
Core income of $274 million is up 3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year leading to a core return on equity of 8.9%. Net investment income of $500 million per tax was down 48 million this quarter. $274 million is up 3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year leading to a core return on equity of 8.9%.
Our fixed income portfolio generated a $33 million increase in investment income this quarter offset by an 88 million decline in investment income and limited partnerships and common stock.
Our P&C expense ratio for the fourth quarter was 31.1%, which is a slight increase compared to last fourth quarter's expense ratio of 30.8%.
The increase is 0.3 points.
was driven by higher underwriting expenses, including continued investments in technology, analytics, and talent.
partially offset by net earned premium growth.
and lower acquisition expenses.
As I have noted in prior calls, there will be a certain amount of variability quarter to quarter. However, we continue to believe an expense ratio of 31% is a reasonable run rate for 2023.
The P&C net prior period development impact on the combined ratio is 1.1 points favorable in the current quarter.
Favorable development in the specialty segment was driven by surety and was somewhat offset by management and professional liability.
In the commercial segment, favorable development and workers' compensation was partially all set by unfavorable development in general liability and commercial auto. Our corporate segment produced a core loss of $52 million in the fourth quarter.crowd
compared to a 94 million loss in the fourth quarter of 2021.
The loss this quarter was predominantly driven by our annual.
asbestos and environmental reserve review.
The results of the review included a non-economic after-tax charge.
of $28 million driven by the strengthening of reserves associated with higher defense.
and indemnity costs on existing claims, as well as lower expected cedar recoveries prior to the application of our lost portfolio transfer cover that we purchased in 2010.
Following this review, our cumulative incurred losses of $3.5 billion are well within the 4 billion LPT limit while cumulative paid losses are $2.4 billion.
You will recall from previous years' reviews that there is a timing difference with respect to recognizing the benefit of the cover relative to incurred losses.
as we can only do so in proportion to the paid losses recovered under the treaty.
As such, holding all else constant, the loss recognized today will be recaptured over time through the amortization of a deferred accounting gain as paid losses ultimately catch up with incurred losses.
As of year-end 2022, we have $425 million dollars of deferred gain that will be recaptured over time.
As we have noted in prior calls, we perform our annual review of asbestos in environmental reserves during the fourth quarter.
and all other corporate segment reserves during the second quarter, although we will adjust such reserves in between these annual reviews as facts and circumstances warrant.
For Life and Group, we had a core loss of $16 million for Q4 2022, which was a $22 million reduction from last year.
The results this quarter reflects a $40 million pre-tax reduction in investment income from limited partnerships partially offset by improved morbidity.
As we have said in prior calls, we will be adopting the GAP long duration targeted improvements, otherwise known as LDTI.
Accounting Methodology Effect of January 1, 2023, but will apply it as of January 1, 2021.
The estimated impact of adopting LDTI will be a $2.3 billion decrease.
in stockholders' equity as of the transition date of January 1, 2021.
Assuming that December 31, 2022 interest rates were in place on January 1, 2021, we estimated an approximate $250 million decrease to stockholders equity. At corporate single-a rates were substantially higher at December 31, 2022.
then at January 1, 2021. Finally, as we have noted in prior calls, I'd like to emphasize the transition to LDTI accounting has no impact to the underlying economics of CNA's business.
turning to investments.
Total pre-tax net investment income is $503 million in the fourth quarter compared to $551 million in the prior year quarter.
The decrease was driven by our limited partnership and common stock results.
which returned a $20 million gain in the current quarter compared to a $108 million gain in the prior year quarter.
The gain in the prior year quarter reflected particularly strong results from our private equity and common stock portfolios.
Our fixed income portfolio continues to provide consistent net investment income, which has been steadily increasing over the last several quarters.
We continue to benefit from a higher invested asset base driven by continued strong P&C underwriting results.
As a point of reference, the average book value of our fixed income portfolio has increased $800 million from the prior year quarter.
Additionally, the average fixed income effective income yield in our P&C portfolio was 4% in the fourth quarter. The average fixed income effective income in our P&C portfolio was 4% in the fourth quarter.
an increase from 3.8% in the third quarter, 3.7% in the second quarter, and 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022.
The consolidated CNA portfolio fixed income effective yield was 4.5% in the fourth quarter compared to 4.4% for the third quarter and 4.3% for the second and first quarters of 2022 reflecting
the higher PNC yields, not portfolio.
The life and group portfolio yield was about flat in the current quarter as compared to the first three quarters of this year.
As of the end of the fourth quarter, reinvestment rates were about 125 to 150 basis points above our P&C effective yield, while our life and group current reinvestment rates are about flat to our effective yield, given the long duration nature of our life and group portfolio.
Pre-tax and investment income for the full year 2022 was $1.8 billion compared with $2.2 billion in 2021.
Similar to the quarter, the decrease was driven by our limited partnership in common stock results, which returned a $31 million loss in the current year compared to a $402 million gain in the prior year.
Our fixed income portfolio produced an additional $79 million of pre-tax income in 2022 compared to 2021 as we passed the inflection point on reinvestment rates during the year.
Accordingly, we see earnings from our fixed income portfolio being a significant tailwind for us in 2023.
At quarter end, our balance sheet continues to be very solid with stockholders' equity excluding AOCI of $12.4 billion or $45.71 per share, which is an increase of 7% from year-end 2021, adjusting for dividends.
Stockholders equity including AOCI.
which reflects our investment portfolio moving into less of a net unrealized loss position. During the quarter was $8.8 billion or $32.58 per share.
We continue to maintain a conservative capital structure with a leverage ratio of 18%, excluding AOCI, and our capital remains strong with our financial strength rating of A plus from Standard and Poor's, having just been affirmed in the fourth quarter with a stable outlook.
Operating cash flow was strong once again this past quarter at $512 million and over $2.5 billion for the year.
as compared to $2 billion in 2021.
The 2022 operating cash flow results reflect record underwriting results, as well as higher earnings from our fixed income portfolio.
In addition to strong operating cash flow, we continue to maintain liquidity in the form of cash and short-term investments.
And together they provide ample liquidity at our holding company as well as the operating company level to meet obligations and withstand significant business variability.
For the full year 2022, the effective tax rate on core income was 18.1%.
and would be closer to 19% adjusting for a one-time deferred tax asset benefit arising from pending changes in the UK corporate tax rate.
Looking forward, our effective tax rate on core income will continue to depend on the relative contribution of tax-exempt investment income to total pre-tax core income.
given the significant disposition activity in our tax exempt portfolio in 2022.
We expect tax-exempt investment income to continue to trend downward in 2023.
Accordingly, we expect a 2023 core income effective tax rate of about 20% with a certain amount of variability quarter to quarter.
Finally, given the company's strong underwriting performance, we are pleased to announce we are increasing our regular quarterly dividend 5% from $0.40 per share to $0.42 per share. In addition, we are declaring a special dividend of $1.20 per share.
both to be paid on March 9th to shareholders of record on February 21st.
With that, I will turn it back to Dino.
Thanks Scott.
To recap, we have steadily and methodically improved our results over the last six years.
and 2022 was a particularly strong underwriting performance with record low all-in and underlying combined ratios and strong production results across the board.
Of course, it's all about going forward.
And we are encouraged by the opportunities in front of us. With the anticipated continued acceleration in property pricing and growth in exposures that act like great, we expect to continue to cover our current lost cost trends as we enter 2023.
Additionally, we will gain meaningful benefit from the tailwind of fixed income returns. And with that, we will be happy to take your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, if you'd like to ask a question, you may press star and then one using a touch-tone telephone.
To withdraw your questions, you may press star and 2.
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Once again, to join the question queue, you may press star and then one. We'll pause momentarily to assemble the roster.
And our first question today comes from Josh Shanker from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.
Yeah, thank you very much. I was looking at the operating cash flow number, not the best thing to look at for insurance companies, but
substantial growth to an $2.5 billion of operating cash accelerated.
this year up from 2 billion last year, but the it looks like obviously FX is part of it but Reserves didn't grow at all over the course of the year Can you sort of a break out why you're having such good cash flow growth and why I guess paid to incurred levels are?
Someone left a track of him in the year. Sure, thanks Josh. It's got here. So you're right, $2.5 billion, operating cash flow for the full year, 2022. It was about $2 billion in 2021. So...
We're calling 2021, we had a significant loss portfolio transfer from some older workers comp business. That was a negative, that was about a negative $600 million or so, maybe $500 million impacting that 2021 year amount. So if you just, just for that, cash flow from operations are about.
flat year over year, albeit still very, very strong. As far as Paige Rincher goes,
So for the fourth quarter 2022 by 85% a year ago is by 89% So there's going to be some natural distortions quarter to quarter. I mean much of that driven by catastrophe activity And when you look at it, it has increased as courts have reopened, but at the end of the day It's still substantially below where it was
So that would be really my observation on the paid to incurred as well as the cash flow question.
Scott, you really took it where I wanted to take it as well. So from talk about court reopening and what is the frequency of losses being paid right now compared to what might have been thought about a normative frequency had, courts not been closed. Is there a catch up going on and how long should this last? First.
Yeah, I think, you know, we've talked about this before. I mean, you know, the courts, there's significant backlog out there. We're seeing it. Absolutely. We expect it to emerge slowly as we, as we move out from the pandemic. I'm not in a great position to, to predict, you know, how quickly that will emerge this year, but things are loosening up and we're seeing it.
just thought it was obfuscated and clearly as soon as the courts opened up notwithstanding the-
some of the backlog that Scott mentioned, you can see it just sprung right back. So, you know, we're at an elevated, you know, 6% loss cost trend and so it's right what we had expected.
And if I can sneak one more in, you just said an elevated 6%. Do you perceive that 6% to be elevated or is that a new normal? That it's 6% for the foreseeable future and we have no plans to expect it to go down or do you think that's a temporary 6%.
Yeah, that's a good question, Josh. I mean, I think elevated just relative to, you know, pre-pandemic levels, right, until social inflation clearly impacted it tremendously. Now it's at 6%. As the backlog, you know, gets worked through, is it possible it can go higher? I mean, I guess so.
But even at 6%, compounding annually, you know, it's going to take a lot of discipline and we've got to keep pushing hard for rates to stay ahead of those lost cost trends. So right now we see it at 6%, I guess it could go higher, but that's high at 6%.
Okay, thank you for all the answers appreciated.
Thank you for all the answers. I appreciate it. Sure.
Our next question comes from Mayer Shields from KBW. Please go ahead with your question.
Great. Thanks. Good morning. Do you know you talked about keeping property PML broadly flat? I think you could remind us of what the internal constraints are on that and what you're building in for, I guess, lost trend there.
relative to rate increases that you're expecting.
Yeah, okay, so we don't parse out sort of, you know, our PML accumulation. It is less about internal constraints and more simply just given what we have seen over the last decade of elevated cats.
and secondary type cap perils having such a dramatic impact were just prudent in how we manage our cap PMLs and the reinsurance that we purchased. In terms of the property, you'll recall early on when we saw the inflation hit we had increased...
our property loss cost trends about 2% and we've kept them at the elevated levels. So clearly the rate we're now getting and also the TIV which is why I wanted to sort of detail that we're being successful in getting valuations up.
we're clearly covering our lost cost trends there. But we had increased them about two points.
Okay, and I know it's early, but I was wondering whether you've had any conversations yet with the property quota share reinsurers? We're trying to get a sense in terms of how net exposure might change over the course of this year in a type of reinsuring market. Yeah. Yeah. I mean that's, you know.
We haven't and I think they were all sort of consumed with the 1-1s and that made a lot of sense. You got to get through the April 1s and then the June 1s. Look, all I can say is when I look at what the press has been about.
the activity on renewals, you know, there's clearly a possibility that we can get a little bit more, have to take a little bit more net.
And so we'll just, we'll see how that plays out. And then, you know, on the pricing, which obviously was quite substantial, I mean, it had a big...
variability to it and I think our overall results have been good for us and the re-insurers and we would expect to be on the better end of that. But we'll have to see. To a large extent, it probably depends.
Also on what happens in the next several months, you have a very active catastrophe season before June 1. That could change the calculus a little bit. But we're being one of the reasons why we're prudent now about how we write property and how we look at...
we have changed more recently or if it the same intensity of competition has been previous months.
You know, I don't know if it's really changed much recently. I mean, it was an abrupt change, which we saw, obviously going into the third and fourth quarter.
I think a function, as I said in my prepared remarks, of the fact that the B&O got over 100% rating increases during that hard market. And so I think it's a bit of an adjustment. It's still our rate level still double what they were. I think we'll now look.
I mean, if it continues to persist that way, then obviously, you know, in a few quarters, that could be a little bit more problematic. But I'm not there yet. I think, you know, we're going to continue to push, and we have the expertise.
that continue to drive this thing profitably. And I think we've demonstrated through all of our re-underwriting efforts that we're not going to chase accounts that you can't make a good return. So I think it's too early to suggest, look this thing is just overly competitive and is going to continue to play out that way.
Okay, thank you very much.
Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then 1. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and 2.
Again, that is Starrin then one to join the question cube.
And ladies and gentlemen, at this time in showing we do have a follow-up question from Josh Schenker from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your follow-up. Yes, sure.
Well, I'm not going to let all this time go without getting more questions in. So obviously, this is not the quarter for the LTC study. Where do you see it?
in terms of thinking about interest rates and behaviors for
Resurring.
As we close out the year, obviously we've gone through COVID, you're learning more about behaviors. Can you talk to us a little bit about how you think about incidents and adequacy of coverage given where rates are?
Sure Josh, it's Scott here. So yeah, if I can comment a little bit about just the past few years and then kind of where we're at right now with the long-term care.
So, I would say over the past three years, relative to reserve expectations, the long-term care block has generally experienced lower claim frequency, higher claim terminations, and more favorable claim severity.
amid the effects of COVID-19. And those effects were definitely more pronounced earlier in the pandemic.
And as the pandemic has abated, these effects have largely dissipated as we've worked our way through 2022. I'd also remind you in the third quarter call, what we talked about the GPV update, we also reduced our IV and R. We actually built up IV and R over 2020.
2021 expecting somewhat of a delay in reporting of claims that did not materialize. So we reduced the IBNR by $107 million. During the third quarter, it was somewhat masked by an uptick in our claims reserves for LTC, for our disabled lives reserves. That was about $82 million.
I think that's big picture how things are looking as we're emerging from the COVID era as we sit here right now. And then obviously there's things, you know, you're probably more so than any other line. We're slow to recognize good news.
in LTC, but quick to recognize anything that might be unfortunate. Is there good news in the trends that's not baked into reserves yet?
Well, I guess I would point you back to the third quarter call when we did our GPB review. We ended up increasing the margin.
We increased the margin from $72 million to $125 million. We had some puts and takes. We had a very positive tailwind around discount rate, higher interest rates. That was a significant positive. Also rate. We had to increase the margin by $190 million for...
increased outlook for rate on a net present value basis and then offsetting that was cost of care inflation and higher utilization So you kind of shake that all up and we were at a net plus 125 margin at Q3. We have not updated our study since then so I would say
That's pretty much how we feel right now. I think it's right now that's 125 is our best estimate.
And then it's probably too early to ask this question, but if I go back in time to the previous decade, sometimes people might say, you know, if we knew how good the business was back then, we would have written more of it. And then maybe been a little more aggressive on the price because it turned out to be so strong the profitability.
When you think about the 2020 to 2022 period, you know, and then there's a lot of puts and takes with social inflation and whatnot, but there was a lot of price.
Do you think that those years are going to be years that people reflected on? If we knew how good it was going to be, we would have written more.
I think that's obviously, you know, wait and see, right? I mean, listen, we have been cautious and prudent in how we recognize margin because of the social inflation dynamic.
It's a relatively new sort of going back probably 2016, 2017. It's had a significant impact and we obviously watch it closely as I mentioned earlier. We also had economic inflation. I think that
We'll just have to see how these more recent accident years where earned rates well above lost cost trends, how that all plays out over the next four or five years. In the meantime, it's really what's fueling the caution that we bring to recognizing margin.
Okay. I appreciate all the answers and then good luck in the new year. Thank you.
And at this time in showing no additional questions, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Dino Robusto for any closing remarks.
Thank you very much everyone and we will chat with you next quarter. Ladies and gentlemen with that we will end today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.