Q4 2022 Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc Earnings Call

Speaker 2: Thank you.

Speaker 1: The conference will begin shortly. To raise and lower your hand during Q&A, you can dial star 11.

Speaker 3: Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Eagle BOLC Shipping 4th Quarter 2022 Earnings Call.

Speaker 3: At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

Speaker 3: After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session.

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Speaker 3: Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

Speaker 3: I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Gary Bogle, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead. It is a confirmation that the storing ofminimum of human cases ordinary people of all ages

Speaker 4: Thank you and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to Eagle bulk's fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. To supplement our remarks today, I would encourage participants to access a slide presentation that is available on our website at eagleships.com.

Speaker 4: Please note that part of our discussion today will include forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are inherently subject to risk and uncertainties. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

Speaker 4: Please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that may have a direct bearing on our operating results, our performance, and our financial condition.

Speaker 4: Our discussion today also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures including adjusted net income, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, and TCE. Please refer to the appendix in the presentation and our earnings release filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for more information concerning non-GAAP financial measures.

Speaker 4: and a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

Speaker 4: Please turn to slide six.

Speaker 4: We cemented a record annual profit in 2022, achieving net income of $248 million, or $19.09 per share basic.

Speaker 4: These extraordinary results are reflective of the many actions we've taken over the past years, including our Vessel Sale and Purchase Strategy, encompassing 55 transactions.

Speaker 4: our segment-leading focus on scrubbers, our differentiated active management approach to trading ships, and our efforts to optimize the balance sheet.

Speaker 4: For Q4, revenues and earnings came off versus the prior quarter as freight rates continued to weaken through the end of the year and costs came in higher due to expenses relating to recent vessel purchase activity, general inflationary pressures, and certain year-end non-cash impacts.

Speaker 4: Net income total 23.3 million for the fourth quarter or $1.79 per share basic.

Speaker 4: Adjusting for non-cash mark-to-market changes on our FFA hedges and other non-cash items, net income came in at $35.9 million or $2.76 per share.

Speaker 4: As we've stated previously, we believe that adjusted net income more accurately reflects the underlying business in any given period.

Speaker 4: Based on this result and consistent with our stated capital allocation strategy, EGLE's board of directors declared a cash dividend of 60 cents per share, equating to 34% of net income. This is our sixth consecutive quarterly dividend.

Speaker 4: bringing total shareholder distributions to $139 million, or $10.65 per share, since we adopted our capital allocation strategy just 18 months ago.

Speaker 4: On the sale and purchase front, we continue to act opportunistically and recently acquired three high specification vessels.

Speaker 4: We purchased the 2015 built UltraMax for $24.3 million. The vessel has been renamed the Gibraltar Eagle and was delivered into our fleet in February .

Speaker 4: Yesterday, we also announced the acquisition of two 2020 built scrubber fitted UltraMaxes for $30.1 million each.

Speaker 4: Both ships are expected to be delivered to Eagle during the second quarter and will be renamed the Halifax Eagle and the Vancouver Eagle.

Speaker 4: Lastly, we sold the Jaeger, a 2004 built supermax, which was the oldest special in our fleet, just ahead of our statutory dried-up. This transaction is expected to close in March.

Speaker 4: It's noteworthy that the Jaeger represents the 22nd and last vessel to be sold as part of our initial fleet renewal program, which began almost six years ago.

Speaker 4: Proforma for these transactions, our fleet totals 55 ships, averaging 9.1 years of age, with more than 90% being scrubber fitted, and importantly, now with no vessel exceeding 14 years of age. Please turn to slide 7.

Speaker 4: For Q4, we achieved a net TC of $22,062, which represents a decrease of 21% quarter-on-quarter on a headline basis, but a meaningful increase in relative outperformance versus the benchmark BSI index equating to roughly 53% or $7,689 per shift per day.

Speaker 4: For the full year 2022, we achieved a net TC of $26,923, a company record which represents a significant outperformance of 27% relative to the BSI index.

Speaker 4: As we look to the 1st quarter spot rates, we can considerably during January and into mid February .

Speaker 4: We will discuss market fundamentals later on the call, but as of today, we have fixed approximately 92% of our owned available days for the first quarter at a net TCE of $13,335.

Speaker 4: Please turn to slide 8.

Speaker 4: adjusted EBITDA was down for the quarter coming in at 55.6 million after adjusting for unrealized P&L impact on our hedges and certain other non-cash items. For the full year 2022, we achieved a record 328 million in total EBITDA. Before we move to the financials, as most of you know, Frank.

Speaker 5: Thank you, Gary.

Speaker 6: Please turn to slide 10 for a summary of our fourth quarter financial results.

Speaker 6: PCE revenues totaled 102.5 million in Q4 versus 128.9 million in Q3. The decrease was mainly due to lower market rates offset in part by an increase in available days

Speaker 6: Net income for Q4 was $23.3 million.

Speaker 6: Earnings per share for the fourth quarter was $1.79 on a basic basis.

Speaker 6: on a diluted basis, which primarily includes the shares related to the convertible bond.

Speaker 6: EPS came in at $1.50.

Speaker 6: Adjusted that income which excludes unrealized gains and losses on derivatives and an operating lease impairment was 35.9 million for the fourth quarter or $2.76 on a per share basis.

Speaker 6: On a diluted basis, our adjusted EPS came in at $2.28 for the quarter.

Speaker 6: The adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was 55.6 million.

Speaker 6: Let's turn to slide 11 for an overview of our balance sheet and liquidity.

Speaker 6: Total cash at the end of Q4 was $189.8 million, a decrease of $7.9 million as compared to Q3-22.

Speaker 6: The decrease was permanently driven by $23.4 million in dividends paid.

Speaker 6: driven by $23.4 million in dividends paid.

Speaker 6: paid for the purchase of the Tokyo Eagle.

Speaker 6: $3.6 million deposit for the purchase of the Gibraltar Eagle and a $12.4 million quarterly amortization payment on the Global UltraCo debt facility.

Speaker 6: offset in part by $55.8 million of cash generated by operating activities.

Speaker 6: Total liquidity came in at 289.8 million at the end of Q4.

Speaker 6: Total liquidity is comprised of total cash of $189.8 million and $100 million available under our fully undrawn revolving credit facility.

Speaker 6: In addition to this available liquidity, we owned four unencumbered vessels at year end, providing us with additional flexibility to increase our liquidity.

Speaker 6: In Q1 we took delivery of the Gibraltar Eagle, our fifth unencumbered vessel.

Speaker 6: Furthermore, we intend to use cash on hand to pay for the Vancouver Eagle, which will provide us with a sixth unencumbered vessel once it is delivered to us in the second quarter.

Speaker 6: Total debt at the end of Q4 was $341.9 million, a reduction of $12.4 million from Q3 attributable to the Global Ultra-Co-Debt Facility Quarterly Immunization Payment.

Speaker 6: As a reminder, we entered into interest rate swaps around the time of our global refinancing in early October of 2021.

Speaker 6: to fix the interest rate exposure on the term loan.

Speaker 6: As a result of these swaps, which average 87 basis points, the company's interest rate exposure is fully fixed, insulating us from the rising interest rate environment.

Speaker 6: Please now turn to slide 12 for an overview of our cash flow from operations for the fourth quarter of 2022.

Speaker 6: Netcats generated by operating activities with 55.8 million in Q4 and 298.3 million for the full year 2022.

Speaker 6: Our working capital management remains robust.

Speaker 6: The chart highlights the timing-driven variability that working capital introduces to cash from operations, as depicted by the differences between the dark blue bars, which are reported cash from ops numbers, and the light blue bars, which strip out changes in operating assets and liabilities.

Speaker 6: primarily working capital.

Speaker 6: As the chart demonstrates, the volatility caused by working capital largely evened out over time.

Speaker 6: Please turn to slide 13 for a Q4 2022 cash block. The chart at the top of slide 13 lays out the company's cash movements during Q4.

Speaker 6: The revenue and operating expenditures bars provide a simple look at the company's operations.

Speaker 6: The net of these two bars, which total $55 million,

Speaker 6: roughly equals our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.

Speaker 6: Some of the larger movements to the right include vessel S&P, dividends paid, and debt service.

Speaker 6: The chart at the bottom of the slide similarly covers the full year cash movements.

Speaker 6: Let's now review slide 14 for our cash breakeven per shift per day.

Speaker 6: Cash breakeven per ship per day was $12,078 for the fourth quarter. A quarter on quarter increase of $147 is due to higher optics in G&A, offset in part by lower dry docking and interest expense.

Speaker 6: Vessel operating expenses or OPEX exclude non-reincurring items.

Speaker 6: Came in at six thousand nine hundred ninety six dollars per shift per day in Q4 Four hundred and thirty dollars higher than the prior quarter

Speaker 6: OPEX overall was elevated due to a number of factors including takeover costs and dry docking expenses relating to recently acquired vessels.

Speaker 6: which we run through the P&L versus capitalizing on the balance sheet.

Speaker 6: Additionally, we incurred an increase in repair costs driven by certain discretionary spend and unscheduled repairs.

Speaker 6: We also continue to face cost due to temporary housing. We have been providing to our Ukrainian seafarers.

Speaker 6: expenses related to COVID-19, as well as general inflationary cost pressures.

Speaker 6: We believe the OPEX will moderate in 2023, but we will incur incremental cost relating to take over of newly acquired vessels as we continue to grow our fleet.

Speaker 6: Dry docking came in at $100 per ship per day in Q4, $403 lower than prior quarter on a decrease in dry docking activity.

Speaker 6: Cash GNA came in at $2,069 per shift per day in Q4.

Speaker 6: $368 higher than prior quarter.

Speaker 6: The change in G&A expense was primarily due to an increase in employee-related costs and professional fees.

Speaker 6: Note that our cast gene a pership per day is based solely on our own vessels.

Speaker 6: If we were to include our chartered in vessels, cash GNA, would improve by $348 to $1,721 per shift per day.

Speaker 6: Cash interest expense came in at $339 per ship per day in Q4, $245 lower than prior quarter due to an increase in interest income and lower cash interest expense as a result of lower debt outstanding.

Speaker 6: It is important to note that the improved cash interest expense was achieved in an environment where short-term interest rates have remained at elevated levels.

Speaker 6: Cash debt principal payments were generally flat at $2574 per shift per day in Q4.

Speaker 6: Looking ahead, we expect the following per shift per day in Q1 2023.

Speaker 6: OpEx is likely to decline to about $6,475.

Speaker 6: TRIDAC is expected to increase to about $975 on higher dry dock activity.

Speaker 6: DNA is expected to decrease to $1,775. Cash interest expense is expected to come in unchanged at circa $340.

Speaker 6: Cash debt principal payments are expected to be marginally higher at $2,590.

Speaker 6: This concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to Gary.

Speaker 4: Thank you, Frank. Please turn to slide 16.

Speaker 4: Brake rates moved downward in the second half of 2022 and into early 23, with the BSI going from over 18,000 in October to slightly below 7,000 in mid-February. This weakness can be attributed to a number of factors which impacted both demand and supply. On the demand side, the BSI is at a low level.

Speaker 4: Global growth and expectations for potential for the deterioration and output. Criterial commodity purchase across the board with minor bolts such as steel and cement particularly impacted.

Speaker 4: Additionally, Chinese trade demand was muted in Q4 due to low domestic activity and more recently due to the usual negative seasonality which occurs up to and around Lunar New Year holidays. Although it's difficult to quantify, the container spillover trade, which was supportive since 2020, has mostly reversed.

Speaker 4: with very few bags and container cargos still moving on bulk carriers.

Speaker 4: On the supply side, the unwinding of congestion, which arose due to COVID-related restrictions and general supply chain issues, has effectively increased global ships' capacity and in turn pushed the world fleet utilization lower.

Speaker 4: Positively, since bottoming on Feb 13, the BSI has posted a sharp and quick rebound and is now trading around $13,000, which represents an impressive increase of about 85% in just over two weeks. Furthermore, the forward curve for the balance of the year is in contango, with FFA trades being done at around $16,000.

Speaker 4: likely reflecting the market expectations for an improved supply-demand landscape over the medium term as Chinese economic growth is revived and global demand stabilizes.

Speaker 4: Please turn to slide 17.

Speaker 4: Fuel prices were somewhat lower during the fourth quarter, but spreads between HSFO and VLSFO remain robust, averaging $241 for the period.

Speaker 4: Proformer for our recent vessel sale and purchase activity, 50 out of 55 ships or 91% of our fleet is now fitted with scrubbers.

Speaker 4: This reinforces our position as the largest owner of scrubber fitted ships within the mid-sized dry bulk vessel segment globally.

Speaker 4: On an illustrative basis based on the 2023 Forward Curve, we estimate that our scrubbers will generate approximately $40 million in incremental net income on an annualized basis.

Speaker 4: Please turn to slide 18. Asset price development has been somewhat mixed in the first quarter, with values on mid-aged and older vessels softening a bit, while modern ships have moved up slightly. There appears to be an increasing level of buying interest for modern ultramaxes, and is coming not only from traditional drybulk owners.

Speaker 4: but also from non-dry bulk who are looking to diversify away from exposures in tankers and containers. The older segment tends to be dominated by Chinese buyers and the softening of values is in part reflective of them not really being in the market during the second half of 2022.

Speaker 4: As mentioned previously, we've been fairly active on the sale and purchase front, having acquired four modern ultramaxes in September , including three which are scrubber fitted at attractive levels that I believe reflects our disciplined approach to fleet growth. Looking ahead, notwithstanding short-term volatility, our view has not changed.

Speaker 4: We remain constructive on the market and asset prices in the medium term, given the increasingly positive supply-side dynamics.

Speaker 4: Please turn to slide 19. Net fleet supply growth slowed in Q4. A total of 112 dry-bolt new build vessels were delivered during the period, partially offsetting this 19 vessels were scrapped during the same period. Notably for Eagle, just 9 mid-sized geared vessels were scrapped during 2022.

Speaker 4: That's nine shifts out of a fleet of over 4,000 midsize vessels. As we mentioned previously, despite high scrap prices, the low level of vessel demolition is not too surprising given the strength in the underlying spot market over the past two years.

Speaker 4: A positive from this is that there's an ever increasing number of older ships that will inevitably need to be recycled in the coming years. In terms of forward supply growth, the overall dry bulk water book remains at a historically low level of just around 7% of the on the water fleet.

Speaker 4: The 2022 dry bulk net fleet growth is estimated at 2.8%, which would be down about 22% as compared with 2021.

Speaker 4: Looking ahead, 2023 net fleet growth is projected to drop further to just 1.9% driven by continued muted deliveries as well as a significant increase in assumed scrapping volumes.

Speaker 4: A total of 74 dry bulk ships were ordered during Q4. Up as compared to the prior quarter, but still significantly below the average over the last 5 years of roughly 113 ships per quarter. It's worth noting that the vast majority of shifts being ordered today will only be delivered in 2025 and beyond. Please turn to slide 20.

Speaker 4: This slide, which we included in last quarter's presentation, depicts the average age of the Super Max Ultra Max fleet going back 25 years overlaid against the order book as a percentage of the On the Water fleet. It's interesting to see how quickly the fleet has aged in recent years. It will most certainly outpace the historical peak of 12 years old, breached in 1994.

Speaker 4: This not only reflects the lower number of new buildings entering the market, but also a smaller number of older ships that are being scrapped.

Speaker 4: As mentioned previously, the order book today remains at historically low level, given the relative cost advantage or secondhand shifts versus new buildings today, as well as the uncertainty surrounding decarbonization and future fuel propulsion technology, we believe ordering will remain low for some time.

Speaker 4: We expect these dynamics combining a record low-order book with a near record fleet age to further improve the supply side in terms of fleet development in the coming years.

Speaker 4: inspect these dynamics, combining a record low order book with a near record fleet age to further improve the supply side in terms of fleet development in the coming years. Please turn to slide 21.

Speaker 4: After reaching a multi-year high in 2021, dry bulk trade demand growth is expected to have come in at negative 2.7% for full year 2022. However, after taking into account the significant and positive ton-mile effect caused by the war in Ukraine, the deficit growth rate improves by 90 basis points. It's worth noting that 2022 is only the second time.

Speaker 4: in over 20 years the Tribal Demand growth on a ton mile basis has been negative. The impact of demand last year is the result of a number of factors including a global slowdown as a result of high inflation and tighter monetary policy across the developed world as well as a continuation of China's restrictive zero COVID policy.

Speaker 4: For 2023, the IMF is currently projecting global GDP growth to reach 2.9%, a decrease of 70 basis points as compared to 2022. However, in terms of dry bulk trade, demand growth is expected to improve by 400 basis points in 2023.

Speaker 4: to reach a level of positive 1.3% on a core basis and improving to positive 2.2% once factoring in the ton-mile effect.

Speaker 4: 1.3% on a core basis and improving to positive 2.2% once factoring in the ton mile effect. Please turn to slide 22.

Speaker 4: As we look into 2023, there's a great deal of variability in forecasted growth rates amongst the various tribal commodities.

Speaker 4: Volumes for infrastructure related commodities such as steel and cement are expected to come off based on current views of lower global economic activity.

Speaker 4: Coal, on the other hand, which typically represents anywhere from 15 to 20 percent of our cargos, is expected to grow by 1.8 percent. We expect the impact of this figure to be even greater once factoring in the increased ton-mile effects to this particular commodity as a result primarily of Europe's changing energy mix.

Speaker 4: Additionally, grain, which typically represents anywhere from 10 to 15 percent of our cargo mix, are projected to grow by 5.8 percent as grain production led by increased exports of Brazilian soybeans, U.S. soybeans and corn, and a partial normalization of Ukraine wheat exports as compared with 2022.

Please turn to 523.

Our 2022 results demonstrate the advantages of our differentiated strategy.

Given our exclusive focus on the midsize segment with an ability to carry all dry bulk commodities and a commercial platform with a track record of meaningful outperformance, we continue to be in an optimal position to maximize utilization and capitalize on a rapidly evolving environment. Looking forward, we remain positive about the medium term prospects for the dry bulk industry.

for our stakeholders at large.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to the operator and answer any questions that you may have. Operator?

As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.

To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster.

Our first question comes from a line of Omar Nocta with Jefferies.

Thank you. Hey, guys. Good morning. Hi, Gary. Morning. Just wanted to just follow up maybe on your comments about the market here recently. You noted we've seen a sharp rise in the index. Especially what we've been seeing in the supers and ultras and rates now look like they're above the averages you've secured.

it seems that supras and ultras continue to outperform the larger ships. And maybe can you just explain why that outperforms is continuing?

Yeah, absolutely. So, I mean, as you mentioned, you know, it's up dramatically in just a little over two weeks. Really, we've seen the Atlantic market move up significantly. Definitely, South Atlantic, Brazil has come alive and that's put pressure on even just yesterday as an example, we fixed one of our…

One of our Ultra Max is out of West Africa with manganese ore going out to China at 20,000 plus the scrubber benefit for the owner which is around, call it two and a half thousand a day and that's up probably eight, ten thousand dollars from just a couple weeks ago. And that's really driven because you know that.

that you know there's a lot more activity out of Brazil so that ship had an opportunity to balance the cross and we've seen the Gulf come back too you know in terms of we lost a lot of grain volume out of the U.S. and you know earlier because of water levels and so we we we see more activity there and that puts pressure and pulls ships from from other parts of the Atlantic and

in the Pacific as well. On the other side of Lunar New Year we've definitely seen more activity. So it's I'd say you know if you had to handicap it it's coming more from the Atlantic side but in general overall which is good and not surprising you know given the seasonality that we see.

Okay, and that sounds like it's primarily coming from the minor bulks and grain. Is that what's been driving it here recently? I mean, I think that's the difference overall more than other cargos. You know, I've actually, I've been, post-COVID, I've been out getting out on our ships.

And just in the last four weeks, I've been on three of our ships carrying salt to the New York, Boston area. And so those cargos are much more steady. And so I'd say the difference we've seen recently is more grain cargos moving out of the U.S. and now out of Brazil as that market comes on, typically with this season.

Thanks, Gary. Got it. And then maybe just one final question as a follow-up. You mentioned the S&P market and what's been going on here recently. There's a bit more volume. The two shifts you just bought that you announced yesterday, those look like they're off maybe 15% from where the peak was maybe nine months ago.

So clearly a nice pricing relative. How would you characterize the market now? You mentioned there's more buyers. What do you think in terms of values from here? Do you see stability, do you see upside? Any color you can get?

Sure, I mean, I think, you know, we think generally the modern ultra max is that we've bought our slightly over 20% below where they were trading in the second quarter. And we've seen we included a graph in the earnings that that shows an increase in S&P prices recently. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, you know, we see buyers, you know,

competing who typically are in dry bulk buyers. And you know a lot of people were saying, you know, I'm going to buy, I want to come back into this market, but we're going to see, you know, values come off significantly Q1 because of the weak market. You know, we don't, we didn't see that so much because so many people are reading the same tea leaves.

we have a rapidly aging fleet. I mean just in the last three years we've got about six percent more ships over 20 years old in the mid-sized segment than we had you know just three years ago. I mean that's a pretty significant amount you know 250 ships that are eventually scrapping candidates and there's just not with an order book of you know in the mid-sevenths there's just not new ships to come and fill that gap so I just think that's why you're seeing much more resistance or downward.

movement in prices than we would have seen in a weaker market. I think most people just see this supply-side dynamic. I think you know, this is my 35th year in dry bulk. I love the setup here in terms of where we are, and that's why that graph that we put in that shows that rapidly aging fleet against the order book. It's really

remarkable and I think a few years ago I don't think I could have come up with a scenario where you would have a robust market and because of that you have an aging fleet but you just don't have a supply-side response. The order book has really been flat since 2017 in the kind of seven to eight percent and so we think as the prices will continue to move up they move somewhat.

but especially on the back of improved pricing. And the forward market, sorry to go on here, but I think it's important. The forward market to this year is now trading at around 16,000 in the FFA market. So yeah, Q1 was weak, but 16,000 is a supermax. And then you have, if you add, the majority of our fleet now is ultra max. So.

Those ships are at a premium and then you add scrubber premium to that and an active management, you know, which has an ability to outperform and you quickly get back to a really significant, you know, numbers, you know, way well above, you know, way above cash break even. But I'm saying significantly profitable levels. So we're really constructive here. We like where we are and we specifically want exposure to this market. I think if we look back,

you know last year in generating 250 million of net income that's because we had exposure to this market and yeah you know you you you know that's going to mean there's going to be some volatility around a week or q1 but like i said we like the exposure going forward and and really like the the four new ships we've added to the fleet

Great. Oh, very. Thanks. Very, very helpful. Very thorough. I'll pass it over. OK.

Thanks Omar. Our next question comes from a line of Ben Nolan with Steve-O.

Hey guys, good morning. I wanted to maybe just carry on where we left off. I know a more of a question there just about how you're thinking about asset values. Obviously you have been pretty active, buying and sounds like you're still optimistic for the outlook.

you know, continue to add the cost of capital is higher. So, at what point do you, you know, say, okay, well, or what's that sweet spot with respect to leverage, maybe is a way to put it.

Yeah, I mean, it's it's a great question because we're very cognizant of the fact that although, you know, all of our debt is fixed or bank debts all fixed at 87 basis points, that's not going to be the case with any new debt we put on, obviously, right? And so now you're looking at an all in cost in the 6th is with margin.

And so it's meaningful on a standalone basis. Of course blended, it's not, and we're very fortunate that we have those, but that's history. So we've been able to add ships with cash, and I think having unencumbered vessels is always a good thing. But if we continue, we are gonna put some debt on. So on a blended basis, we're gonna put some debt on.

Again, I think we're fortunate that we are able to have a very low cost of debt, but it's a different calculation than it was just a year and a half ago. We're very cognizant of the fact that we want to be prudent with the balance sheet. There's a lot of work that went into this.

fleet renewal and balance sheet optimization over the last number of years. As mentioned in the remarks, you know, the Jaeger is the last shift, 22nd shift to be sold under that fleet renewal. And the good news now is, well, for every two ships we've bought, we've had to sell one because of the age and the specification over the last five, six years. We don't have any shifts over 14 years old. So as we add these, you know, well, let's say these four...

and 100 million under on revolver. So we feel really good about that, but you're not gonna see us lever up this company in the current environment, because we just feel that the real value here comes from our operational leverage and not really from an inordinate amount of financial leverage.

Okay, that's helpful. And the, well, just maybe to follow on with that, and then I have a quick macro question. So do you, the convert is pretty well in the money. Do you view that just internally as equity given, you know, where it's at? And so it's not as.

meaningful from a leverage perspective. And then from the macro side, you talked, Gary, about the fact that you're not really seeing much of the container spillover trade anymore is effectively gone. As we, as you think about sort of the trajectory for coming out of the recent trough that we've had, how big of a factor is that in sort of the momentum or the relative performance?

of the ultra supermax segment versus everything else? Yeah, I mean, so I'll take the latter part first. I mean, I think it was helpful, but I don't think it's what drove it. I mean, I think what drove the outperformance of the supermax last year and 2021.

is the fact that minor bulks grew at 4 and 4.7% respectively in 2020 and 2021, versus dry bulk overall or major bulks at averaging 2 over that period. So more than double. And that minor bulk doesn't include the container volumes as well.

So it was helpful, absolutely, but I don't think it was the driver. I think it was the minor bolts outstripping, major bolts, really two to one. You know, as we go forward, you know, the good thing about congestion is when it happens, it takes supply out of the market in a meaningful way. You know, the bad thing about congestion is it's never permanent. And so when it unwinds.

you have exactly the opposite effect. So at the moment you know we've had that unwinding and and so you know we're now in a position where we we don't we don't see that as an overhang. And so but but you know it's inevitable whenever you see that that it's going to come the other way at some point as that the pendulum swings. So you know we think that although

minor bolts fairly muted and mention it's really infrastructure related things like steel products and cement were quite weak last year and expected to actually be slightly negative this year. You know that can reverse and likely will reverse itself. You know we haven't really spent a lot of time speaking about opening of China but of course.

China coming back online, which severely underperformed last year, is really meaningful for anyone in dry bulk, particularly for the larger sizes, of course, because of the dependence on iron ore and coal. But for any dry bulk ship, China is really important.

Right, and on how you convert. Yeah. Yeah, sorry, going back to the convert question. So I think, generally speaking, I think that's correct that we see the convert is equity given how deep in the money it is. We did buy back 10 million a face when our shares were trading significantly lower just over $40. And we saw that as an opportunistic.

almost kind of a proxy for a share buyback. You know, where we are today though is, you know, to the market trades with the future coupon as well and an implied option price. And we're just about a year away from maturity. And right now, you know, we're earning, you know, four and a half percent on cash in the bank.

So the negative carry is only a half a percent on the convert and to pay, you know, five percent coupon for the next year and effectively when we can, you know, stockpile cash and only pay a half percent just isn't good math to us where we are. So, you know, we do have I mentioned before, but I think it's important. We do have the option to, you know, to pay for that using cash or shares. And so we think having cash on a balance sheet is opportunistic.

use or of course also for other strategic uses. I appreciate it. Thank you.

strategic uses. I appreciate it. Thank you. Thanks, Ben.

Our next question comes from the line of Liam Burke with B. Riley.

Our next question comes from the line of Liam Burke with B. Riley. Thank you. Good morning, Gary. Good morning, Frank.

Morning, Liam. Good morning, Gary on the macro front. We're talking about puts and takes, especially on the cold and grain front. But how much of your outlook on the macro is dependent on the China reopening. Yes, so I think the general view is we're going to have a.

we're not putting in for growth even against that number this year. So I think there's upside to a China reopening and infrastructure spend from where we are, but there's of course a lot of uncertainty there. So we're not expecting overly immediate drive from that in the minor bulk.

It really comes more next year when we see minor bolts growing at over 3%. And I do think it's worth pointing out that the ton-mile effect is really important. And it was really important last year. The uplift was almost 1% and is expected to be the same this year. And that's really around grain and coal. And I think a significant amount of coal cargo from the

places like the US to Europe , even Indonesia to Europe , which simply didn't exist previously. So, if we look at the cold front, Europe was up 30% year over year last year, and it's expected to grow slightly over that highly elevated number. And so, those ton miles have been really important in supporting dry bulk in the second half of last year.

and going into and including 2023 as well.

Great. And excuse me, on the op-x front, Frank and his prepared statement said you'd expect it to moderate and come in in 2023. Is there anything you can do actively accept eliminates some of the one-time events that occurred in the fourth quarter?

Yeah, I mean, we we're very focused on bringing that number down. I've said it before. I think the most important thing for us to do is maintain our ships in a high state of commercial ability to trade, of course, safety, compliance, things like that. And so.

we will spend what we need to spend. Having said that, the spend in Q4 is simply too elevated, even stripping out the expenses around acquisitions. And the way from an accounting standpoint, we simply have to expense those costs, which are I think those are opportunistic and positive.

But in terms of core optics, the answer is yes. We've also faced significant costs around the fact that the majority of our crew is from Eastern Europe , over a third from Ukraine. And so travel and flights have been very expensive. We have.

and continue to offer temporary housing to our Ukrainian seafarers, which is in that number as well. But we have diversified out and increased the number of seafarers from the Philippines, which is now almost a third, and that will help in the numbers too. So we're very focused on bringing that down, as Frank mentioned in the...

Remarks we expect a reduction of about $500 from Q4 to Q1, but very focused on bringing that down substantially further into and through the year. Great, thank you Gary. Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1-1.

Our next question comes from the line of Greg Lewis with BTIG.

Greg, your line is now open. Hey, thank you and good morning everybody and hey, Frank, thanks for good luck. Congratulations. And thanks for all the years of helping me out and helping me better understand the industry.

Gary, I enjoyed working with you.

Yeah, it was great. Yeah, it was a good run. Gary, and I feel like you've touched on it a few times in the prepared remarks as well as in some of the Q&A about, hey, we've been renewing the fleet, but at this point, it looks like maybe there's one more sale candidate out there. You know, I guess.

You know, as I look at ownership days in 22 versus 21, it was vessel ownership days, it was flattish. You know, as we look ahead to 23, and maybe it's more about timing, so maybe it's 24. Should we be thinking about ownership days?

total ownership days increasing as we think about the next bottle at whatever time frame you want to think about or are we kind of Yeah, curious on your thoughts around that.

Sure, so I mean a couple things. First of all, the Yeager was the last vessel that we intended to sell under the under the renewal program and our next oldest ship is only 14 years old. So we don't have another candidate. I mean obviously depending on market developments that can change but we're done.

under the initial free renewal. In terms of growth, our ownership days increased by just over 1,000 days from N21 to N22, from 18.2 to 19,200, and then you're going to see them increase now because of the...

the net three ships that we acquired, you know, take away the Yeager, but the four ships less the Yeager, and another three ships, so another thousand days. So I think it's been steady. You know, we don't have, you know, a target number of ships because our view is, is that each acquisition needs to make sense on its own merits based on price and market expectation.

So, you know, we are really constructive on the market because of the reasons I mentioned in the aging fleet. And we're operating in a market now with a forward for this year at 16,000 in what's been a really muted, you know, we had negative demand growth last year of almost 3 percent and even including ton miles of almost 2 percent. And here we are in a market that.

where the FFA's trade for a supermats at 16,000. So we're really constructive that when China comes back and global demand comes back, you know, based on, you know, a reduction and a flattening of inflation and things like that, and hopefully a resolution of the war in Ukraine.

that the demand side is going to be incredibly powerful against what's been really muted fleet and aging fleet. So I think you will see us continue to acquire vessels because of that positive view on the market, but we feel no pressure and I don't use the word never often, but you'll never hear me say we're going to be X number of ships.

But I guess what I would say is, you know, yeah, Q1 seasonally week always is rates are starting to get better, you know, based on the press release, the bookings are already over 90%. Any kind of way you can kind of talk to how we should be thinking about, or at least, you know, how you're going to be talking to the board around, you know, maybe

to around 30, 30%, a little above 30% of net income. Of course the board has the discretion to do more, but our view is that wherever we allocate capital, it's for the benefit of the shareholder. So we think that by acquiring assets,

This quarter has been a good use of capital. I mentioned also we think having cash on the balance sheet to have the option to redeem, if not all, a significant portion of the converting cash is a good use of capital and also gives us optionality, having that cash until maturity or some event where we decide to redeem them.

So we don't feel pressure or we don't feel that we should be distributing excess incremental cash because it's sitting on the balance sheet because of in particular those two uses. So again the board always has the ability to do that but we've been clear about the fact that the dividend is variable at minimum of 30 percent. So we'll have that discussion but I don't want to set an expectation.

That it's going to be significantly more because we haven't had that discussion and our past actions haven't haven't dictated that. And as I mentioned, we think acquiring vessels right now is attractive at these levels. Perfect. Okay. Hey, thank you all for the time and have a great rest of the day.

Thanks, Greg. That concludes today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back for closing remarks. Thank you, operator. I have nothing further, so once again, I would like to thank everyone for joining us today and wish everyone a good weekend. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating.

You may now disconnect.

We'll begin shortly. To raise and lower your hand during Q&A you can dial star 11.

I.

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Eagle Bulk Shipping 4th Quarter 2022 Earnings Call.

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session.

To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star 1 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.

To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today. Gary Bogle, chief executive officer. Please go ahead. Thank you and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to evil bolts 4th quarter 2022 earnings call.

To supplement our remarks today, I would encourage participants to access a slide presentation that is available on our website at eagleships.com.

Please note that part of our discussion today will include forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are inherently subject to risk and uncertainties. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

Please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that may have a direct bearing on our operating results, our performance, and our financial condition.

Our discussion today also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted net income, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, and TCE. Please refer to the appendix in the presentation and our earnings release filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for more information concerning non-GAAP financial measures.

and a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. Please turn to slide six. We cemented a record annual profit in 2022, achieving net income of $248 million, or $19.09 per share basic.

These extraordinary results are reflective of the many actions we've taken over the past years, including our Vessel Sale and Purchase Strategy, encompassing 55 transactions.

our segment-leading focus on scrubbers, our differentiated active management approach to trading ships, and our efforts to optimize the balance sheet.

For Q4, revenues and earnings came off versus the prior quarter as freight rates continued to weaken through the end of the year and costs came in higher due to expenses relating to recent vessel purchase activity, general inflationary pressures, and certain year-end non-cash impacts.

Net income totaled $23.3 million for the fourth quarter, or $1.79 per share basic. Adjusting for non-cash mark-to-market changes on our FFA hedges and other non-cash items, net income came in at $35.9 million, or $2.76 per share.

As we've stated previously, we believe that adjusted net income more accurately reflects the underlying business in any given period.

Based on this result and consistent with our stated capital allocation strategy, EGLE's board of directors declared a cash dividend of 60 cents per share, equating to 34% of net income. This is our sixth consecutive quarterly dividend, bringing total shareholder distributions to $139 million, or $10.65 per share.

since we adopted our capital allocation strategy just 18 months ago. On the sale and purchase front, we continue to act opportunistically and recently acquired three high specification vessels.

We purchased the 2015 built UltraMax for $24.3 million. The vessel has been renamed the Gibraltar Eagle and was delivered into our fleet in February .

Yesterday, we also announced the acquisition of two 2020 built scrubber fitted UltraMaxes for $30.1 million each.

Both ships are expected to be delivered to Eagle during the second quarter and will be renamed the Halifax Eagle and the Vancouver Eagle.

Lastly, we sold the Jaeger, a 2004 built supermax, which was the oldest vessel in our fleet, just ahead of her statutory dry dock. This transaction is expected to close in March.

It's noteworthy that the Jaeger represents the 22nd and last vessel to be sold as part of our initial fleet renewal program, which began almost six years ago.

Proforma for these transactions, our fleet totals 55 ships, averaging 9.1 years of age, with more than 90% being scrubber fitted, and importantly, now with no vessel exceeding 14 years of age. Please turn to slide 7.

For Q4, we achieved a net TC of $22,062, which represents a decrease of 21% quarter-on-quarter on a headline basis, but a meaningful increase in relative outperformance versus the benchmark BSI index, equating to roughly 53%.

or $7,689 per shift per day.

For the full year 2022, we achieved a net TC of $26,923, a company record which represents a significant outperformance of 27% relative to the BSI index. As we look to the first quarter, spot rates weakened considerably during January and into mid-February. We will discuss market fundamentals later on the call.

But as of today, we have fixed approximately 92% of our owned available days for the first quarter at a net TCE of $13,335.

we have fixed approximately 92% of our owned available days for the first quarter at a net TCA of $13,335. Please turn to slide 8.

adjusted EBITDA was down for the quarter coming in at 55.6 million after adjusting for unrealized P&L impact on our hedges and certain other non-cash items. For the full year 2022, we achieved a record 328 million in total EBITDA. Before we move to the financials, as most of you know, Frank will be stepping down at the end of the hour.

Please turn to slide 10 for a summary of our fourth quarter financial results.

PCE revenues totaled 102.5 million in Q4 versus 128.9 million in Q3. The decrease was mainly due to lower market rates offset in part by an increase in available days.

Net income for Q4 was $23.3 million. Earnings per share for the fourth quarter was $1.79 on a basic basis. On a diluted basis, which primarily includes the shares related to the convertible bond, EPS came in at $1.50.

Adjusted net income, which excludes unrealized gains and losses on derivatives and an operating lease impairment, was $35.9 million for the fourth quarter, or $2.76 on a per share basis. On a diluted basis, our adjusted EPS came in at $2.

and 28 cents for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $55.6 million. Let's now turn to slide 11 for an overview of our balance sheet and liquidity. Total cash at the end of Q4 was $189.8 million, a decrease of $7.9 million as compared to Q3-22. Let's now turn to slide 12 for an overview of our balance sheet and liquidity.

The decrease was permanently driven by $23.4 million in dividends paid, $23.4 million paid for the purchase of the Tokyo Eagle, $3.6 million deposited for the purchase of the Gibraltar Eagle, and a $12.4 million quarterly amortization payment on the Global Ultraco Debt Facility. Aqu Caucus

offset in part by 55.8 million of cash generated by operating activities. Total liquidity came in at 289.8 million at the end of Q4.

Total liquidity is comprised of total cash of $189.8 million and $100 million available under our fully undrawn revolving credit facility. In addition to this available liquidity, we own four unencumbered vessels at year end, providing us with additional flexibility to increase our liquidity.

In Q1 we took delivery of the Gibraltar Eagle, our fifth uncommered vessel.

Furthermore, we intend to use cash on hand to pay for the Vancouver Eagle, which will provide us with a sixth unencumbered vessel once it is delivered to us in the second quarter. Total debt at the end of Q4 was 341.9 million, a reduction of 12.4 million from Q3, attributable to the global ultra-code debt facility quarterly inversation payment. As a reminder, we entered into interest rate swaps around the ...

of our cash flow from operations for the fourth quarter of 2022.

Net cash generated by operating activities was $55.8 million in Q4 and $298.3 million for the full year 2022.

Our working capital management remains robust. The chart highlights the timing-driven variability that working capital introduces to cash from operations as depicted by the differences between the dark blue bars, which are reported cash from ops numbers, and the light blue bars, which strip out changes in operating assets and liabilities.

primarily working capital. As the chart demonstrates, the volatility caused by working capital largely evens out over time. Please turn to slide 13 for a Q4 2022 Cash Block.

The chart at the top of slide 13 lays out the company's cash movements during Q4. The revenue and operating expenditures bars provide a simple look at the company's operations.

The net of these two bars, which total $55 million, roughly equals our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter. Some of the larger movements to the right include vessel S&P, dividends paid, and debt service. The chart at the bottom of the slide similarly covers the full year cash movements.

Left WUsed by 14 for our cash break even per ship per day. Cash break even per ship per day was $12,078 for the fourth quarter. A quarter on quarter increase of $147 is due to higher op-ex in GNA, offset and park by lower driedocking and interest expense.

Dessert operating expenses or op-X.

Vessel operating expenses or OPEX exclude non-reincurring items.

came in at $6,996 per ship per day in Q4, $430 higher than the prior quarter. OPEX overall was elevated due to a number of factors including takeover costs and dry docking expenses relating to recently acquired vessels, which we run through the P&L.

versus capitalizing on the balance sheet. Additionally, we incurred an increase in repair costs driven by certain discretionary spend and unscheduled repairs. We also continue to face costs due to temporary housing we have been providing to our Ukrainian seafarers. Expenses related to COVID-19, as well as general inflationary cost pressures.

We believe OPEX will moderate in 2023, but we will incur incremental costs relating to takeover of newly acquired vessels as we continue to grow our fleet.

Dry docking came in at $100 per shift per day in Q4, $403 lower than prior quarter on a decrease in dry docking activity. Cash G&A came in at $2,069 per shift per day in Q4.

$368 higher than prior quarter. The change in G&A expense was primarily due to an increase in employee-related costs and professional fees.

Note that our cash G&A per ship per day is based solely on our own vessels. If we were to include our chartered in vessels, cash G&A would improve by $348 to $1,721 per ship per day.

Cash interest expense came in at $339 per ship per day in Q4, $245 lower than prior quarter due to an increase in interest income and lower cash interest expense as a result of lower debt outstanding. It is important to know.

that the improved cash interest expense was achieved in an environment where short-term interest rates have remained at elevated levels. Cash debt principal payments were generally flat at $2,574 per shift per day in Q4. Looking ahead, we expect the following per shift per day in Q1 2023.

OpEx is likely to decline to about $6,475. Drydock is expected to increase to about $975 on higher drydock activity. DNA is expected to decrease to $1,775.

Cash interest expense is expected to come in unchanged at circa $340. Cash debt principal payments are expected to be marginally higher at $2,590. This concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to Gary.

Thank you, Frank. Please turn to slide 16. Freight rates move downward in the second half of 2022 and into early 23, with the BSI going from over 18,000 in October to slightly below 7,000 in mid-prevory. This weakness can be attributed to a number of factors.

which impacted both demand and supply. On the demand side, global growth and expectations for potential further deterioration in output curtail commodity purchase across the board, with minor bolts such as steel and cement particularly impacting. Additionally, Chinese trade demand was muted in Q4 due to low domestic activity.

and more recently due to the usual negative seasonality which occurs up to and around lunar new year holidays. Although it's difficult to quantify the container spillover trade which was supportive since 2020 has mostly reversed with very few bags and container cargos still moving on bulk carriers.

On the supply side, the unwinding of congestion, which arose due to COVID-related restrictions and general supply chain issues, has effectively increased global ships' capacity and in turn pushed the world fleet utilization lower. Positively, since bottoming on February 13, 2021, the global economy has been

The BSI has posted a sharp and quick rebound and is now trading around $13,000, which represents an impressive increase of about 85% in just over two weeks. Furthermore, the forward curve for the balance of the year is in contango, with FFA trades being done at around $16,000.

likely reflecting the market's expectations for an improved supply-demand landscape over the medium term as Chinese economic growth is revived and global demand stabilizes. Please turn to slide 17.

Fuel prices were somewhat lower during the fourth quarter, but spreads between HSFO and VLSFO remain robust, averaging $241 for the period.

Proformer for our recent vessel sale and purchase activity, 50 out of 55 ships or 91% of our fleet is now fitted with scrubbers. This reinforces our position as the largest owner of scrubber fitted ships within the mid-sized dry bulk vessel segment globally.

On an illustrative basis, based on the 2023 forward curve, we estimate that our scrubbers will generate approximately $40 million in incremental net income on an annualized basis. Please turn to slide 18. Asset price development has been somewhat mixed in the first quarter, with values on mid-aged and older vessels softening a bit, while modern ships have moved up slightly.

There appears to be an increasing level of buying interest from modern ultra-mactors, and it's coming not only from traditional dry bulk owners, but also from non-dry bulk, who are looking to diversify away from exposures and tankers and containers. The older segment tends to be dominated by Chinese buyers, and the softening of values is in part reflective of them not really being in the market during the second half of 2022. As mentioned previously, we were fairly active on the Stalin purchase.

Please turn to slide 19. Net fleet supply growth slowed in Q4. A total of 112 dry bulb new build vessels were delivered during the period, partially offsetting this. Nineteen vessels were scrapped during the same period. Notably for Eagle, just nine mid-sized geared vessels were scrapped during 2022.

That's nine shifts out of a fleet of over 4,000 midsize vessels. As we mentioned previously, despite high scrap prices, the low level of vessel demolition is not too surprising given the strength in the underlying spot market over the past two years.

A positive from this is that there's an ever increasing number of older ships that will inevitably need to be recycled in the coming years. In terms of forward supply growth, the overall dry bulk order book remains at a historically low level of just around 7% of the on the water fleet. The 2022.

For eyeball, net flea growth is estimated at 2.8%, which would be down about 22% as compared with 2021. Looking ahead, 2023 net flea growth is projected to drop further to just 1.9% driven by continued muted deliveries as well as a significant increase in assumes scrapping volumes.

A total of 74 drive-on ships were ordered during Q4. Optous compared to the prior quarter, but still significantly below the average over the last five years, have roughly 113 ships per quarter. It's worth noting that the vast majority of ships being ordered today will only be delivered in 2025 and beyond.

Please turn to slide 20. This slide, which we included in last quarter's presentation, depicts the average age of the SuperMats UltraMax fleet going back 25 years, overlaid against the order book as a percentage of the On the Water fleet. It's interesting to see how quickly the fleet has aged in recent years. It will most certainly outpace the historical peak of 12 years old, breached in 1994.

This not only reflects the lower number of new buildings entering the market, but also a smaller number of older ships that are being scrapped. As mentioned previously, the order book today remains at historically low level. Given the relative cost advantage of secondhand ships versus new buildings today, as well as the uncertainty surrounding decarbonization and future fuel propulsion technology, we believe ordering will remain low for some time. We expect these dynamics.

combining a record low-order book with a near-record fleet age to further improve the supply side in terms of fleet development in the coming years. Please turn to slide 21. After reaching a multi-year high in 2021, dry bulk trade demand growth is expected to have come in at negative 2.7% for full year 2022. However, after taking into account the significant and positive tonn mile effect caused by the war in Ukraine.

The deficit growth rate improves by 90 basis points. It's worth noting that 2022 is only the second time in over 20 years that dry bulk demand growth on a ton-mile basis has been negative. The impact to demand last year is a direct result of a number of factors, including a global slowdown as a result of high inflation and tighter monetary policy across the developed world, as well as a continuation of China's restrictive zero COVID policy.

For 2023, the IMF is currently projecting global GDP growth to reach 2.9%, a decrease of 70 basis points as compared to 2022. However, in terms of dry bulk trade, demand growth is expected to improve by 400 basis points in 2023 to reach a level of positive 1.3% on a core basis and improving to positive 2.2%.

once factoring in the ton-mile effect. Please turn to slide 22. As we look into 2023, there's a great deal of variability in forecasted growth rates amongst the various tribal commodities.

Volumes for infrastructure related commodities, such as steel and cement, are expected to come off based on current views of lower global economic activity. Coal on the other hand, which typically represents anywhere from 15-20 percent of our cargos is expected to grow by 1.8 percent.

We expect the impact of this figure to be even greater once factoring in the increased ton-mile effects to this particular commodity as a result primarily of Europe's changing energy mix. Additionally, grain, which typically represents anywhere from 10 to 15 percent of our cargo mix are projected to grow by 5.8 percent.

grain production led by increased exports of Brazilian soybeans, U.S. soybeans and corn, and a partial normalization of Ukraine wheat exports as compared with 2022. Please turn to slide 23. Our 2022 results demonstrate the advantages of our differentiated strategy. Given our exclusive focus on the mid-size segment.

with an ability to carry all dry bulk commodities and a commercial platform with a track record of meaningful outperformance, would continue to be in an optimal position to maximize utilization and capitalize in a rapidly evolving environment. Looking forward, we will remain positive about the medium-term prospects for the dry bulk industry, particularly given strong supply-side fundamentals. With a modern fleet of 55 predominantly scrubber-fitted vessels and roughly 290 million of liquidity at year-end.

He goes in a unique leadership position. We're looking forward to continuing to deliver superior results for our stakeholders at large. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to the operator and answer any questions that you may have. Operator.

As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again.

As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster.

Our first question comes from a line of Omar Nakdov with Jefferies. Thank you. Hey guys. Good morning. Hi Gary. Hi Omar. Morning. Just wanted to just follow up maybe on your comments about the market here. Obviously let us know because of the operations and you know how some of these fall into place in the market. Now seen many ways to move the market along the way and you know we have a great deal of pause prices in place and yet Windows 7, Tesla is one of them, if we don't then the lights will not see anywhere. So I'm animalua and you could leave. I am just heading to business or just closing the door and building up something like that

You noted we've seen a sharp rise in the ballpark index, especially what we've been seeing in the Supras and Ultras, and rates now look like they're above the averages you've secured so far in the first quarter. So this obviously points to a nice end to the first quarter and a solid beginning to 2Q. I guess maybe could you just give us a sense of what's been driving this latest upturn here in the past couple of weeks? And so.

you know, what's driving that? And then also, it seems that Supra and Ultra continue to outperform the larger ships. And maybe can you just explain why that outperforms is continuing? Yeah, absolutely. So I mean, as you mentioned, you know, we it's up dramatically. And just just a little over two weeks. Really, we've seen the Atlantic market move up significantly. Definitely South Atlantic, Brazil has come alive and that's put pressure on

Even just yesterday as an example, we fixed one of our Ultramaxes out of West Africa with Manganese ore going out to China at 20,000 plus the scrubber benefit for the owner, which is around, call it two and a half thousand a day. And that's up probably $8,000, $10,000 from just a couple of weeks ago. And that's really driven because there's a lot more activity out of Brazil. So that ship had an opportunity to balance the cross. And we've seen the Gulf come back too. We're building a continent of Sch immen. I love the International constrained order as well, because they Everyone knows something

You know, in terms of we lost a lot of grain volume out of the U.S. earlier because of water levels. And so we see more activity there. And that puts pressure and pulls ships from other parts of the Atlantic. And in the Pacific as well, on the other side of Lunar New Year, we've definitely seen more activity. So it's, I'd say, you know, if you had to handicap it, it's coming more from the Atlantic side, but in general overall, which is good. And not surprising.

you know, given the seasonality that we see. Okay, and that sounds like it's primarily coming from the minor bulks and grain. Is that what's been driving it here recently? I mean, I think that's the difference overall more than other cargos. You know, I've actually, I've been, post-COVID, I've been out getting out on our ships, and just in the last four weeks, I've been on three of our ships carrying salt to, you know, New York, Boston.

going on here recently. There's a bit more volume. The two shifts you just bought that you announced yesterday, those look like they're off maybe 15% from where the peak was maybe nine months ago. So clearly a nice pricing relative. How would you characterize the market now? You mentioned there's more buyers.

What do you think in terms of values from here? We see stability, DC upside, any color you can give? Sure, I mean, I think, you know, we think generally the modern ultra maxes that we've bought are slightly less, slightly over 20% below where they were trading in the second quarter. And we've seen, we included a graph in the earnings deck that shows an increase in S&P prices recently. As I mentioned in the last subject happening here in America market. I think that in the past matches with an? all the carpets over here. And what is that, in terms of the amount of material so two quarters, the way,

In my prepared remarks, we see buyers competing who typically are in dry bulk buyers. And a lot of people were saying, I want to come back into this market, but we're going to see values come off significantly Q1 because of the weak market. We didn't see that so much because so many people are reading the same tea leaves. We have a rapidly aging fleet. Just in the last three years, we've got about 6% more ships over 20 years old in the mid-size segment than we had.

you know, just three years ago. I mean, that's a pretty significant amount, you know, 250 ships that are eventually scrapping candidates. And there's just not, with an order book of, you know, in the mid-sevenths, there's just not new ships to come and fill that gap. So I just think that's why you're seeing much more resistance or downward movement in prices than we would have seen in a weaker market. I think most people just see this supply-side dynamic.

You know, I think, you kn 35th year in dry bulk. I in terms of where we are. graph that we put in that aging fleet against the o remarkable. And I think a don't think I could have where you would have a ro because of that you have you just don't have a sup The order book has really in the kind of 7 to 8%.

We think as the prices will continue to move up, they move somewhat, but especially on the back of improved pricing and the forward market, sorry to go on here, but I think it's important. The forward market to this year is now trading at around 16,000 in the FFA market. So yeah, Q1 was weak, but 16,000 is a supermax. And then you have, if you add, the majority of our fleet now is ultra max. So those ships are at a premium and then you add scrubber premium to that.

and an active management which has an ability to outperform. And you quickly get back to really significant numbers, way above cash break even, but I'm saying significantly profitable levels. So we're really constructive here. We like where we are, and we specifically want exposure to this market. I think if we look back last year in generating 250 million of net income.

That's because we had exposure to this market. And yeah, you know, that's going to mean there's going to be some volatility around a week or Q1. But like I said, we like the exposure going forward and really like the four new ships we've added to the fleet. Great. Oh, very thanks. Very helpful and very thorough. I'll pass it over. Okay. Thanks, Omar. Our next question comes from a line of Ben Nolan with STIFL. Hey, guys. Good morning. Morning, Beth. So I wanted to maybe just carry on where we left off or where you left off on Omar's question.

or what's that sweet spot with respect to leverage maybe is a way to put it.

Yeah, I mean, it's a great question because we're very cognizant of the fact that although all of our debt is fixed, our bank debt's all fixed at 87 basis points, that's not going to be the case with any new debt we put on, obviously, right? And so now you're looking at an all in cost in the sixes with margin. And so it's meaningful on a standalone basis. Of course, blended, it's not. And we're very fortunate that we have those. But that's history. All right. Thanks, everybody. Thanks, everybody.

So we've been able to add ships with cash and I think having on income revessels is always a good thing. But if we continue, we are going to put some debt on. So on a blended basis, again, I think we're fortunate that we are able to have a very low cost of debt. But it's a different calculation than it was just a year and a half ago. So, you know, we're...

We're very cognizant of the fact that we want to be prudent with the balance sheet. There's a lot of work that went into this fleet renewal and balance sheet optimization over the last number of years. As mentioned in the remarks, the Jaeger is the last shift, 22nd shift to be sold under that fleet renewal. And the good news now is, well, for every two ships we've bought, we've had to sell one because of the age and the specification over the last five, six years, we don't have any ships over 14 years old. So as we add these, you know, well, let's say these four ships, of course we sold one, but new ships, I don't think you'll see us at the moment selling any more ships. So we don't feel.

you know, the pressure to add more ships, but it's going to be opportunistic. In terms of leverage, you know, there's no set number at all. We feel it's really dynamic. You know, we ended the year with almost 190 million of cash and 100 million undrawn revolver. So we feel really good about that, but you're not going to see us lever up this company in the current environment because we just feel that the real value here comes from our operational leverage and not really from...

in an inordinate amount of financial leverage. Okay, that's helpful. Well, just maybe to follow on with that, and then I have a quick macro question. So the convert is pretty well in the money. Do you view that just internally as equity given where it's at? And so it's not as meaningful from a leverage perspective. And then from the macro side, you talked, Gary, about the fact that you're not really seeing much of the container spill over trade anymore that's effectively gone.

and 2021 is the fact that minor bulks grew at 4 and 4.7% respectively in 2020 and 2021 versus dry bulk overall or major bulks at averaging 2 over that period. So more than double. And that's really, and that minor bulk doesn't include, you know, the container volumes as well.

So it was helpful, absolutely, but I don't think it was the driver. I think it was the minor bolts outstripping, major bolts, really two to one. You know, as we go forward, you know, the good thing about congestion is when it happens, it takes supply out of the market in a meaningful way. You know, the bad thing about congestion is it's never permanent. And so when it unwinds, you have exactly the opposite effect. So at the moment, you know, we've had that unwinding and so, you know, we're now in a position where we don't see that as an overhang.

And so, but it's inevitable whenever you see that, that it's going to come the other way at some point as the pendulum swings. So we think that although minor bolts are fairly muted and mention it's really infrastructure related things like steel products and cement were quite weak last year and expected to actually be slightly negative this year.

you know that can reverse and likely will reverse itself. You know and we haven't really spent a lot of time speaking about opening of China but of course you know China coming back online which which severely underperformed last year is really meaningful for for anyone in dry bulk particularly for the larger sizes of course because of the dependence on iron ore and coal but for any dry bulk ship China is really important. Great and and on how you started yeah.

Yeah, sorry, going back to the convert question. So I think generally speaking, I think that's correct that we see the convert as equity given how deep in the money it is. We did buy back 10 million of face when our shares were trading significantly lower, just over $40. And we saw that as an opportunistic, almost kind of a proxy for a share buyback. You know, where we are today though is, you know, to the trades, the market trades with, with the future coupon as well.

and an implied option price. And we're just about a year away from maturity. And right now, we're earning 4.5% on cash in the bank. So the negative carry is only a half a percent on the convert and to pay 5% coupon for the next year and effectively when we can stockpile cash and only pay a half percent just isn't good math to us where we are. So we do have, I've mentioned before, but I think it's important. We do have the...

option to pay for that using cash or shares. We think having cash on a balance sheet is opportunistic for that use or of course also for other strategic uses. I appreciate it. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Liam Burke with V. Riley. Thank you. Good morning, Gary. Good morning, Frank. Good morning, Liam. Good morning. Gary on the macro front. We're talking about puts and takes, especially on the colon grain front. But how much of your outlook on the macro?

you know, there's a lot, of course, a lot of uncertainty there. So, um, we're not, we're not expecting, you know, overly, uh, you know, immediate, uh, you know, uh, drive from that in the minor bulks. It really comes more next year when we see, uh, you know, minor bulks growing at over 3%. And I do think it's worth pointing out that, you know, the ton mile effect is really important and it was really important. Last year, the uplift was almost 1% is expected to be.

that highly elevated num ton miles have been reall dry bulk in the second ha

Great and excuse me on the OpEx front, Frank and his prepared statement said you'd expect it to moderate and come in in 2023. Is there anything you can do actively except eliminate some of the 1 time events that occurred in the 4th quarter? Yeah, I mean we're very focused on breaking the

The spend in Q4 is simply too elevated, even stripping out the expenses around acquisitions. From an accounting standpoint, we simply have to expense those costs, which are, I think, those are opportunistic and positive. But in terms of core optics, the answer is yes. We've also faced significant costs around the fact that we're not going to be able to pay for the

that the majority of our crew is Eastern Europe , over a third from Ukraine. Travel and flights have been very expensive. We have and continue to offer temporary housing to our Ukrainian seafarers, which is in that number as well. But we have diversified out and increased the number of seafarers from the Philippines, which is now almost a third, and that will help in the numbers too. So we're very focused on bringing that down, as Frank mentioned in the remarks, we expect a reduction of about $500.

from Q4 to Q1, but very focused on bringing that down substantially further into and through the year. Great, thank you, Gary. Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1-1.

Our next question comes from a line of Greg Lewis with BTIG. Greg, your line is now open. Hey, thank you and good morning everybody. And hey, Frank, thanks for good luck. Congratulations and thanks for all the years of helping me out and helping me better understand the industry.

Gary, I enjoyed working with you. Yeah, it was great. Yeah, it was a good run. Gary, and I feel like you've touched on it a few times in the prepared remarks as well as in some of the Q&A about, hey, we've been renewing the fleet, but at this point, it looks like maybe there's 1 more sale candidate out there.

You know, I guess, you know, as I look at ownership days in 22 versus 21, it was vessel ownership days, it was flattish, you know, as we look ahead to 23, and maybe maybe it's more about timing. So, maybe it's 24. Should we be thinking about ownership days, total ownership days increasing as we think about the next bottle at whatever timeframe you want to think about? Or are we kind of, yeah, curious on your thoughts around that? Sure. So, I mean, a couple of things. First of all, the…

And then you're going to see them increase now because of the net three ships that we acquired, you know, take away the Jaeger, but the four ships left the Jaeger, another three ships, so another 1,000 days. So I think it's been steady. We don't have a target number of ships because our view is that each acquisition needs to make sense on its own merits based on price and market expectation.

So, you know, we are really constructive on the market because of the reasons I mentioned in the aging fleet. And we're operating in a market now with a forward for this year at 16,000 in what's been a really muted, you know, we had negative demand growth last year of almost 3 percent and even including ton miles of almost 2 percent. And here we are in a market where the FFA's trade for a supermatt's at 16,000. So we're really constructive that when.

China comes back and global demand comes back based on a reduction and a flattening of inflation and things like that and hopefully a resolution of the war in Ukraine that the demand side is going to be incredibly powerful against what's been a really muted fleet and aging fleet. I think you will see us continue to acquire vessels because of that positive view on the market but we feel no pressure and I don't use the word never often but you'll never hear me say we're going to be X number of ships by the end of next year because to me I think that's putting the cart before the horse.

Yeah, and I think there's something, but it does sound like a good time to be acquire acquire investors bottom. Okay. Thank you for that. And then and then I did just, you know, realizing we don't give dividend guidance. But I guess what I would say is, you know, yeah, Q1 seasonally week always is rates are starting to get better based on the press release the bookings are already over 90%.

Any kind of way you can kind of talk to how we should be thinking about or at least how you're going to be talking to the board around, you know, maybe near term dividends, you know, just so that maybe expectations from investors are appropriately said and how they should be thinking about. The dividend in the near term. Sure, absolutely. I mean, I think our actions speak fairly loudly in that, you know, we've pretty much stuck to around 30 percent, a little above 30 percent of net income.

and until maturity or some event where we decide to redeem them. So we don't feel pressure or we don't feel that we should be distributing excess incremental cash because it's sitting on the balance sheet because of, in particular, those two uses. So again, the board always has the ability to do that, but we've been clear about the fact that the dividend is variable at minimum of 30%. So.

We'll have that discussion, but I don't want to set an expectation that it's going to be significantly more because we haven't had that discussion and our past actions haven't haven't dictated that. And as I mentioned, we think acquiring vessels right now. You know, is attractive at these levels. Perfect. Okay. Hey, thank you all for the time and have a great rest of the day. Thanks Greg that concludes today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back for closing remarks. Thank you operator. I have nothing further. So once again, would like to thank everyone for.