Q4 2022 Vermilion Energy Inc Earnings Call
Speaker 2: We are about to begin. Good morning. My name is Jess and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Vermilion Energy Q4 conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.
Speaker 2: After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during that time, simply press star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star 2.
Speaker 2: Mr. Dionne Hatcher, you may begin your conference.
Speaker 3: Thank you, Jess. Well, good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us today. I'm Dion Hatcher, President and CEO of Hyperplane Energy.
Speaker 3: With me today are Lars Lempster, Vice President CFO , Darcy Kerwin, Vice President International HSE, Grace Keremneke, Vice President North America, and the President of the United States.
Speaker 3: Justin Tan, Vice President Business Development and Kyle Preston, Vice President Investor Relations.
Speaker 3: We'll be referencing a PowerPoint presentation to discuss the Q4 full year 2022 results. Presentation can be found on our website under best with us and events and presentations.
Speaker 3: Please refer to our Advisory and Forward-Looking Statements at the end of the presentation. It describes the forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures, and oil and gas terms used today and outlines the risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion.
Speaker 3: In 2022, we delivered on our strategic priorities and continue to reposition Vermillion for long-term success. We remained focused on financial discipline and reduced net debt by another $300 million. We benefited from strong European gas prices as a result of our international diversified asset base.
Speaker 3: We advanced the core acquisition to significantly enhance our urogastyx exposure, which is planned to close on March 31st of this year.
Speaker 3: And we completed the strategic acquisition of La Croix exploration, marking Vermilion's entry into the prolific Montney resource play, which has significantly increased the depth and quality of our drilling inventory.
Speaker 3: Looking at our financial results, 4 million generated record fund flows of $1.6 billion, record free cash flow of $1.1 billion in 2022.
Speaker 3: representing a year-over-year increase of 78% and 99%, respectively.
Speaker 3: These results were achieved despite a 406 million of realized hedging losses and 223 million of temporary European windfall taxes.
Speaker 3: His free cash flow allows us to fund over $500 million of strategic acquisitions, reduce net debt by over $300 million and return over $100 million to our shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.
Speaker 3: We launched a Return of Capital Framework in 2022, which included a reinstated quarterly dividend in Q1 and the commencement of a shared buyback program in Q3, returning a total of 11% of our free cash flow during the year.
Speaker 3: We exited the year with net debt of $1.3 billion and the resulting net debt to fund flow ratio of 0.8 times which is the lowest leverage in over 10 years.
Speaker 3: In the fourth quarter of 2022, we reported $284 million of fund flows. However, it is important to note that this includes the full year impact of the temporary EU infill taxes.
Speaker 3: The Windfall Tax was enacted in Q4-22 and was applied retroactively so the full amount is reflected in our Q4 results.
Speaker 3: Excluding the windfall tax, Q4 fund flow would have been $507 million which is in line with the prior quarter.
Speaker 3: Pre-cash flow in Q4 was $150,115,000 including the impact of the windfall taxes or $330,000 excluding the windfall tax. Production for the quarter was 85,450 views a day which is up slightly from the prior quarter.
Speaker 3: Production in Q4 was impacted by unplanned downtime in Australia, cold weather and third-party downtime in North America, and the delayed start-up of our 6-well Monty Pad in Alberta.
Speaker 3: Production from our North American assets averaged 58,499 bb per day, which is an increase of 2% from the prior quarter, mainly due to new production for our Montney assets in Canada and a full quarter contribution of our US drilling program. Our primary focus in Q4 was tying in the first quarter of the year.
Speaker 3: 6-well Alberta Montney pad at MICA. As you can recall, this is the pad that we took over drilling operations from La Crota following the close of the acquisition at the end of May.
Speaker 3: The wells were brought on stream at the end of November and cleaned up during December , resulting in Montanique production of approximately 7,500 views a day in December .
Speaker 3: In Q1, we've drilled and completed a follow-up three-well berta pad and will bring those walls on production in early Q2.
Speaker 3: the British Columbia government announced agreements with the Blueberry River First Nations and other Treaty 8 First Nations outlining specific guidelines pertaining to future resource development in the region.
Speaker 3: We view this agreement as a positive development. Our BC assets are located outside of the Blue River First Nations high value areas. They are predominantly on private freehold land and we continue to receive permits.
Speaker 3: This will help facilitate the timely approval of future permits required to expand our mountain development in British Columbia.
Speaker 3: The Alberta inventory provided us with an operational buffer to ending Blue River First Nations resolution. Though we will continue to maintain our production at capacity in Alberta for efficiency purposes, we are now in a position to pivot back to the higher quality inventory in B.C.
Speaker 3: In Q1, we finished drilling on a 2L DC pad and we're currently preparing for completion operations.
Speaker 3: Production from our international assets averaged 26,953 FUIs per day, which is down slightly from the prior quarter, primary due to natural decline in Netherlands and Germany.
Speaker 3: as well as lower than anticipated production in Australia due to on-plan downtime.
Speaker 3: We drilled one oil well in Germany which was brought on production in Q1 and drilled one gross 0.5 man castle in the Netherlands.
Speaker 3: one oil well in Germany, which was brought on production in Q1 and drove one gross 0.5 net gas on the Netherlands, which encountered a 19 meter gas column.
Speaker 3: We expect to bring this new Netherlands well on production in the first half of 2023.
Speaker 3: In Australia, production from the Wandu field was temporary shut in during December to repair a minor leak.
Speaker 3: Upon further inspection, we've identified additional maintenance and as a precautionary measure to ensure continued safe operations of the facility, we elected to complete a detailed inspection of the entire facility and conduct all necessary repairs at this time.
Speaker 3: This will result in production being offline for the entire first quarter. However, we expect this maintenance activity to help minimize future downtime.
Speaker 3: The repairs themselves are minor in nature, but due to the complexity of working on an offshore platform, it takes several months to safely complete the work.
Speaker 3: Looking at our 2022 reserves, we increased our approved plus probable reserves by 9%.
Speaker 3: to $523 million BOE, primarily driven by the La Croix acquisition and positive economic revisions.
Speaker 3: The after-tax net present value of Approved plus Problem Review Reserves discounted at 10% increased 36% from the prior year.
Speaker 3: to $8.9 billion or $54 per share, with PDP reserves making up more than 50% of this value.
Speaker 3: including acquisitions, we replaced 234% of production on an approved plus probable basis at an FD&A cost, including future development costs, of $19.22 per viewing.
Speaker 3: resulting in a total proof-plus-probable FD&A operating recycle ratio of 4.4 times.
Speaker 3: unapproved plus probable reserve life index increased by 9% in 2022.
Speaker 3: to 16.8 years, reflecting our continuing focus on enhancing the depth of our drilling inventory.
Speaker 3: For the past decade, we have successfully increased our reserve life and next by approximately 40% through the combination of organic development and strategic acquisitions.
Speaker 3: The European gas prices averaged $48 per MMBTU and traded in a range of just under $30 to over $120 in 2022.
Speaker 3: In response to the high prices being faced by consumers, the European Union introduced a temporary windfall tax in Europe .
Speaker 3: LARS will provide an update on the windfall tax later in the presentation.
Speaker 3: European gas prices have traded down over the last several months as Europe experienced the second warmest winter on record.
Speaker 3: However, as you can see on chart seven,
Speaker 3: The forward price for the balance of 23 and 24 remains 6 to 7 times higher than forward Canadian acre prices.
Speaker 3: Approximately 40% of our forecast 2023 corporate gas production, or about 100 million cubic feet per day, is produced in Europe , sold directly into the European market and received Euro gas benchmark prices with minimum offsets.
Speaker 3: On slide 8, we provide an update on our European gas fundamentals. The chart shows the sources of European gas.
Speaker 3: There are three key observations I would like to point out. First, domestic supply, shown in the dark grey bar, is in decline and will drop even further with the pending closure of the Groningen Field in the Netherlands.
Speaker 3: Second, Russia's pipeline supply, shown in the blue bar, has dropped off significantly.
Speaker 3: from 16 BCF a day in 2021 to just a couple BCF a day in the second half of 2022.
Speaker 3: And third, LNG imports, shown in red, have been steadily increasing over the past several years. We saw a greater than 50% increase in 2022 alone as Europe raced to secure LNG to offset Russian volumes and fuel storage ahead of the winter season.
Speaker 3: Keep in mind this was achieved when China had an aggressive COVID lockdown policy in place. We believe refilling gas storage in 23 will be more difficult without Russian supply and with more competition for LNG from Asia. As we look out over the next several years, we expect Europe to become even more dependent on the economy and the economy as a whole.
Speaker 3: Asia demand is also expected to continue growing in the years ahead, which ultimately means Europe will need to continue outbidding Asia for spot LNG.
Speaker 3: We believe the underlying supply and demand fundamentals for European gas will remain strong for many years to come.
Speaker 3: Before I hand it over to Lars to talk about our guidance and financial aid book.
Speaker 3: I want to provide an overview of the acid hydrating we've achieved over the past two years.
Speaker 3: With the Q4 release, we announced a successful divestment of approximately 5500 Buys a day of select non-core light oil assets in our Sophie, Saskatchewan for $225 million.
Speaker 3: Following our entry into the Montney, these mature assets were unlikely to attract capital.
Speaker 3: Its divestment was part of a broader strategy to reposition for millions for long-term success. Of high grading our North American inventory, reducing unit costs, and accelerating the timeline of achieving our debt reduction targets. This asset sale combined with the three strategic acquisitions announced in 2021 and 2022 being the Powder River Basin, Equinor's core ventures, and the La Croix de Monty.
Speaker 3: has resulted in a stronger, more resilient asset-based day.
Speaker 3: At the corporate level, we are generating more free cash flow for BoE.
Speaker 3: We have more exposure to European gas. We have a longer reserve life index.
Speaker 3: We have lower unit off-fix, we have fewer wells and facilities which results in less ARO and lastly our GHG emission intensity has improved.
Speaker 3: These asset portfolio enhancements combined with our lower debt makes for a million and even stronger company today. With that, I would like to pass it over to Lars. Thank you Dion. As Dion mentioned in his earlier remarks, our Australia production will be offline for the first quarter and is expected to restart in Q2.
Speaker 3: As a result, we expect our Q1 production to be in the range of 80 to 82,000 BoE a day.
Speaker 3: We are also revising our full year 2023 guidance to a range of 82,000 to 86,000 BUE a day to reflect the planned southeast Saskatchewan asset sale and the impact of the Australia downtime.
Speaker 3: We have also updated our financial guidance within the table on the right hand side of this slide.
Speaker 3: Most notable would be an approximate $1 per BOE reduction in our operating costs due to the planned asset sale and lower European gas prices.
Speaker 3: Our cash taxes and windfall taxes are also expected to be lower as a result of weaker European gas prices.
Speaker 3: On an absolute basis, we now expect the temporary European windfall tax for 2023 to be 200 million or less, compared to the 300 million guidance we provided with our budget release in January . Slide 11 provides a historical and forward-looking view of our FFO in the red bars and debt levels in the blue bars.
Speaker 3: and serves to illustrate the significant improvement in the resilience of our business.
Speaker 3: When you look at our results prior to 2022, you can see that our business was generating annual FFO in the 800 to 900 million range, excluding 2020, while operating with $2 billion of debt, implying leverage of over two times.
Speaker 3: As you look at our 2022 results and forward projections for 23 and 24, you can see that we are generating significantly more FFO even after factoring the impact of the temporary windfall tax.
Speaker 3: We have benefited from strong commodity prices, specifically European gas, to proactively de-risk the business with lower debt.
Speaker 3: As Dion just noted, we have also enhanced asset resilience over the last two years through an active high grade of our portfolio.
Speaker 3: As a result, we are on track to achieve our stated debt target of $1 billion by the end of 2023 or early 2024. And although we have not provided a debt target for 2024, we believe we have the capacity to balance further net debt reduction in 2024 with increasing shareholder returns based on forward strip pricing.
Speaker 3: We are a more resilient company today with a higher quality asset base, enhanced long-term inventory and a much stronger balance sheet.
Speaker 3: Slide 12 further illustrates the progress we've made on debt reduction and our commitment to increasing the return of capital to shareholders.
Speaker 3: In the first quarter of 2022, we reinstated a quarterly dividend. In the third quarter of 2022, we increased the dividend and commenced the share buyback program. In the first quarter of 2023, we then increased our base dividend again and resumed our share repurchases, following a brief pause in the fourth quarter of 2022. Over this time period, we have been able to reduce our base dividend by about $2.2 billion. In the last quarter of 2022, we increased our base dividend by about $2.2 billion.
Speaker 3: Absolute debt balances have guided our pace of shareholder returns.
Speaker 3: As we outlined in our 2023 budget release in January , we are targeting to return up to 25% of free cash flow to shareholders until we achieve our next debt target of $1 billion.
Speaker 3: Once we achieve this debt target, it is our intent to increase shareholder returns.
Speaker 3: The amount of the increase will be determined once we achieve our debt target and we expect the incremental return to capital to be in the form of an increase to our base dividend and share buybacks.
Speaker 3: With that, I would like to pass it back to Dion to provide some closing remarks. Thank you, Larry.
Speaker 3: As you can see from the presentation today, we delivered on strategic priorities over the past two years and continue to reposition for million for long term success.
Speaker 3: Summarize we generated record financial results in 2022 largely driven by strong European gas prices which demonstrates the value for millions international diversified asset base.
Speaker 3: European gas fundamentals remain strong. We expect elevated prices to persist for the foreseeable future.
Speaker 3: The divestment of non-core mature assets within our southeast Saskatchewan operations unlocks funds to accelerate debt reduction, reduce unit costs, and improve capital efficiencies.
Speaker 3: The combination of Corb, Montney and the Pettibor acquisitions enhance the overall inventory, profitability and free cash flow of our millions portfolio.
Speaker 3: Our focus on debt reduction and growing free cash flow over the past several years has made Vermillion a much more resilient company today.
Speaker 3: Finally, the reinstatement of a quarterly dividend and the commencement of a shared buyback program in 2022.
Speaker 3: demonstrates our commitment to returning capital to shareholders and sets us on a path for increasing returns in the year ahead.
Speaker 3: That concludes my prepared remarks. With that, I'd like to open it up to questions.
Speaker 2: If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are on a speaker phone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment.
Speaker 2: Again, press star 1 for any questions.
Speaker 4: Our first question comes from Amir Eire at ATB Capital. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Thanks. Good morning, guys. Just a quick question on the Montney Development Plans. Just with the shift back to BC, I think you have ten wells planned this year. Could you just give us a sense of how many of those wells are...
Speaker 4: on the BC side and I know there's no guidance for 24 yet but you do have plans to ramp up to 13,000 barrels next year is that more of a second half-weighted production outlook?
Speaker 3: in 2024. Thanks for the question. I'll just summarize. I'll pass over to Bryce to provide a summary of our activity in 2023 this year, the number of wells we're drilling, and then we can talk about our current plans for 2024. Bryce, do you want to summarize our activity this year and look for
Speaker 3: For 2023, thanks for the question. We're planning to drill nine wells in 2023. Seven of them are in Alberta. Two of them are on the BC side of the property. Thankfully, we've received some permits on the BC side.
Speaker 3: And really the plan for 2023 is to drill to fill our existing infrastructure capacity. We have a three-well pad in Alberta that we started in December , initiated completions in February , and we'll have those wells on production in April . The two-well pad in BC we drilled in February and we're going to initiate completion operations in March and we'll have
Speaker 3: pad in Alberta in March and April , completed after breakup and we'll be bringing that on likely in Q4 of 2023.
Speaker 4: Thanks Bryce. Just in terms of 24 plans, I know you've talked about production getting up to 13 or averaging 13 next year.
Speaker 3: Bryce, you want to just summarize our plans for 24? Yeah, high level our plans for 24 to drill 10 or 11 wells. Really the focus in 2024 is building out our BC infrastructure, which is the AIDA-33 battery that we're going to build out in 2024. Building production in that 12 to 13,000 BOE a day level for 2024.
Speaker 3: All wells would be in BC right now for our class of 2024 as well.
Speaker 4: I appreciate that. And then just on the on the reserve the notice that with some negative technical revisions is that just reflecting the high rock putting cost structures we're seeing in the industry or is there anything else driving that?
Speaker 3: Thanks. I'll pass it over to Jensen to address that question.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so we did have some technical revisions, mostly in Saskatchewan this year. Really what we did is looked at our reserve book in the context of our capital allocation priorities and as we brought in the Montney-Myka asset, other asset stores weren't able to compete for capital and so those were an opportunity for us to just take some of the live David arguments.
Speaker 3: These locations in Saskatchewan are not the books that is aligned with what we talked about as high grading our portfolio. I would highlight that despite the technical revisions, our ROI has increased over time in this year.
Speaker 4: Thanks, Jensen. Yes. I appreciate the color there. And then just finally on the buybacks, I know you've become a little more aggressive year to date on the buybacks, but you've also bumped up the dividend just in terms of your allocation of the 25% free cash allocation. Is it just to keep the dividend at the higher rate and allocate the rest to the buybacks? I think so. I'll pass it over to Lars to address that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's being on Amir to our strategy here. What we will look to do is return that incremental capital to shareholders in terms of that up to 25% through share buybacks. And we think we have ample room to increase the base dividend over time. But we have made the increase here in the first quarter of 23. So our focus will be on share buybacks.
Speaker 4: maybe start with a follow-up on Cheryl or Catherine's. I'm just looking at your December .
Speaker 4: slide deck and you had a detailed table for return of capital outlining how you expected a transition from 25% to 50% and eventually up to 90% but I don't think I've seen that table since. Is that still the plan or could we see you take a more measured approach?
Speaker 3: Thanks, Meno. I'll pass it over to Lars to address that question. Yeah, thanks, Meno. The focus for 2023 will be on achieving that billion dollar absolute debt target. What we are managing between is debt reduction and shareholder returns through buybacks.
Speaker 4: Our view at the end of the day is that both of those allocation of capital will increase equity value for the shareholders. I mentioned in my prepared remarks that we have not set a debt target for 2024. But what shareholders can expect is as we achieve that billion dollar absolute debt target.
Speaker 4: We would then move into the 25 to 50% range that we illustrated earlier today versus the up to 25% this year. So that's the direction that we're providing to shareholders in terms of continuing to have those debt balances guide our case of return to capital.
Speaker 4: Okay, thanks for the confirmation, Lars. The next question I'm going to ask, because I'm getting the question, just on the $570 million budget for 2023, it's unchanged, despite the drop in production guidance in the release she talked about the key driver being minimal capital being spent on the
Speaker 5: Saskatchewan assets that you sold. So the question is does that explain all of it or were there other moving parts that we should be aware of?
Speaker 3: Thanks, Benil. Thanks, Benil. You're speaking to production or capital.
Speaker 6: capital.
Speaker 3: As mentioned in part of our prepared remarks, those assets we've been working on that process for a while. Our expectation was that we would be able to divest those assets.
Speaker 3: school, you're unable to shore until you're able to get it across the line. So from a budgeting point of view, we weren't allocating much capital at all to those assets which again in line with their strategy that they weren't attracting capital. So that's the reason there's no effect, no change to our capital budget even with the divestment of those mature assets within seven feet of scotch one.
Speaker 5: I'll turn it back.
Speaker 5: Thanks, Madam. We'll go next to our host of sector with Shactor Energy. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Good morning, Dion and Lars, et cetera. Just wanted a question about what's going on in Europe with Germany now having its first LNG import and others.
Speaker 5: imports from the states and of course higher prices for you in Europe if and if you have a higher volumes and you know much greater returns.
Speaker 3: Thanks for the question and I think you've we've had those.
Speaker 3: comments as well in the past around when you look at the outlook in in Europe . Most of the conversation in the recent year has been how to displace or...
Speaker 3: attract LNG to backfill the missing volumes that were being provided by Russia. That itself is quite significant when you think of the materiality of that volume.
Speaker 3: it's equal to all the US scuff coast LNG export capacities. So that's why again, there's been a lot of tension around LNG supply. On the LNG importing, you're right, Europe has continued to, Germany in particular, to get these import facilities. But that's really, again, you've got to compete for that LNG against the backdrop of...
Speaker 3: country in Europe , their plan is to retire coal facilities and retired nuclear facilities and are effectively done on the nuclear side. So 40% of their energy comes from coal, lignite and nuclear and so that's a significant part of their economy that ultimately will need to be replaced by other forms of energy and again I think
Speaker 3: natural gas will be a big part of that. What we like about our land base in Germany is we've got just under a million acres of land that's covered under 3D seismic. We've got infrastructure in place given its mature asset that we've been able to buy from others and work those assets harder. So we see several larger prospects.
Speaker 3: that we've been maturing through the early process we've had good
Speaker 3: work with the stakeholders there to continue to advance those permits and be able to start that drilling program late this year. So we like Germany. We think there's a need for gas. I think the demand is going to grow. And again, we like the prospectivity of our asset base there as well.
Speaker 5: I'm glad to hear that. Anything changing in Netherlands where they were at one point trying to close down farms, you know methane gas from the animals and you know the issues of permitting is Netherlands getting worse or better to work with.
Speaker 3: I would say the NOx emissions is something that we're monitoring as well. We're able to mitigate that with our systems. For example, that's not a new issue. When we select rigs and equipment, those kinds of things are all geared around managing NOx emissions.
Speaker 3: We're drilling in the Netherlands right now, as part of our drilling program, we referenced a well that we drilled earlier as well. So, we continue to get permits in the Netherlands. We continue to drill two to four wells a year. We're drilling now. So, it's an area that we'll continue to work with, again, all stakeholders there. They've got what they call a small field development. So, a policy in which we're looking for.
Speaker 3: pools that are in that 2 to 10 beads of gas and those are the ones that we target for our drilling program and it's got a strong track record of being able to bring that gas to market.
Speaker 5: Thanks very much for answering my questions.
Speaker 2: And with no other questions holding, Mr. Hatcher, I'll turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing comments.
Speaker 3: Well, thank you again for participating in our Q4 results conference. With that, we'll close the meeting.
Speaker 2: Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.