Q4 2022 Capital Power Corp Earnings Call
Speaker 2: Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to Capital Powers 4th Quarad 2022 Results Conference Call.
Speaker 2: As a reminder, all participants are in lesson only mode and the conference call has been recorded. Today, March 1, 2023.
Speaker 2: I will now turn the call over to Mr. Rending Ma, the Director of the Investor Relations.
Speaker 2: Please go ahead.
Speaker 3: Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to review CalPropower's fourth quarter and year end 2022 results. Our 2022 Integrated Annual Report and the presentation for this conference call are posted on our website at calpropower.com. Joining me this morning are Brian Vagil, President and CEO and Sandra Haskins, Senior Vice President and Finance and
Speaker 3: these expectations due to various risks and uncertainties associated with our business. Please refer to the CostShare statement on forlooking information on slide 2.
Speaker 3: In today's discussion, we will be referring to various non- GAAP financial measures and ratios as noted on slide 3. These measures are not defined financial measures according to GAP and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAP and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures used by other enterprises.
Speaker 3: These measures are provided to complement the GAAP measures which are provided in the analysis of the company's results from management's perspective. Reconciliation of the Zon GAAP financial measures to their narrow GAAP measures can be found in our 2022 Integrated Annual Report.
Speaker 3: Before I turn it over to Brian , I want to acknowledge that Capricorn's head office in Edmonton is located within the traditional and contemporary home of many Indigenous people of the Treaty 6 region and the Métis Nation of the Bird Region 4. We acknowledge the diverse Indigenous communities that are located in these areas and whose presence is the most important to our community.
Speaker 3: continues to enrich the community and our lives as we learn more about the indigenous history of the lands of which we live and work. Okay, over to Brian for his remarks starting on slide four.
Speaker 4: Thanks, Randy, and good morning.
Speaker 4: 2022 was an excellent year in delivering on our strategic objectives. We exceeded our 500 million committed capital for growth target in 2022 through the acquisition of the Midland Co-Gen facility with our joint venture partner manual life investment management.
Speaker 4: We also added 116 MW in renewables with a COD of Clyde's Dale Solar and Strathmore Solar. We announced that we had successfully re-contracted two natural gas facilities with 4.5 and 6 year extensions for island generation in Arlington Valley.
Speaker 4: For our renewable facilities, we executed three excellent long-term renewable contracts. This included a 10-year contract for Emmy Global Canada for Whit Law Wind. A 15-year contract was Shaw Communications for Clydesdale Solar and a 23-year contract with Public Service and Procurement Canada.
Speaker 4: for the Helker 2 Win project.
Speaker 4: We are also advancing technologies to enable a clean power system through a baited natural gas to achieve net zero by 2045. The Genesee 1-2 repowering project continues to progress and is on track to meet its revised cost of 1.1 billion in our off-coal commitment by the end of 2023.
Speaker 4: We are leveraging our ability to find savings in the switch yard while attracting and retaining labor, which remain the most significant cost risks. Lastly, we reached a major milestone for the GenSE CCS project by announcing a limited notice to proceed as we moved into the next stage of...
Speaker 4: final due diligence, and commercial and financial technical assessment, we expect to announce a final investment decision later this year.
Speaker 4: Turning to slide 5, I'll provide an update on the ISO procurement process in Ontario where our three natural gas facilities are very well positioned for success.
Speaker 4: Under the expedited RFP, the ISO is aiming to procure 600 megawatts of gas and 900 megawatts of storage. We submitted three projects with a total capital cost of over 600 million on February 16th. Our submission included 100 megawatt shade left. prices 1000.
Speaker 4: natural gas turbine expansion for East Windsor, and battery projects of 114 and 47.5 megawatts for York Energy and Goreway respectively. The ISO is targeting to announce awards in May of this year.
Speaker 4: The ISO also had a procurement process for same technology upgrades. This involves upgrades at existing facilities targeting 300 MW of incremental natural gas with upgraded projects eligible for contract extensions through 2035.
Speaker 4: We submitted two proposals for Gourway and York Energy. We did not submit a proposal for an upgrade at East Windsor because it did not meet the initial criteria for capacity characteristics.
Speaker 4: On slide 6, I'll provide an update on our three North Carolina solar projects. Our expectations have been that once the supply chain related issues caused by COVID had subsided, costs would return to more normal levels. Unfortunately, that is not materialized as these projects continue to be uneconomic.
Speaker 4: with their existing 2020 PPAs and significantly higher construction estimates due to industry-wide cost pressures. In addition to our projects, we believe there are a number of other similarly situated projects that are not proceeding in North Carolina.
Speaker 4: In discussions with Duke, it is highly probable that the existing PPAs will be terminated and a provision has been recorded in the fourth quarter for the associated penalties. Duke is expected to announce procurement RFPs in the second quarter of this year, which provides an opportunity for us to rebid the three solar projects.
Speaker 4: Given that our sites are fully permitted and ready for construction, we've signed interconnection agreements allowing Duke to expedite construction and work towards a 2025 COD, while new projects entering the queue couldn't reach COD until 2026 or 2027, and the required interconnection network upgrades for our solar projects are causing the COD to be
Speaker 5: 7. I'll touch on the financial highlights for 2022. It was a record year for adjusted EBITDA of approximately 1.4 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, while AFFO of 848 million was up 40%.
Speaker 5: We increased the dividend for the ninth consecutive year and have provided dividend guidance for a 6% annual increase to 2025. We established a green financing framework and completed the first ever green hybrid bond offering in Canada of $350 million to fund eligible projects.
Speaker 5: Overall, we delivered a total shareholder return of 23% in 2022 ahead of our 10-12% TSR target. In the past five years, we have delivered an annual TSR of 26%. With our strong internally generated cash flow, we are well positioned to fund our committed growth capex. For more information, visit www.fema.gov
Speaker 5: this. We have included an AFFO chart outlining the step changes from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022.
Speaker 5: Starting with Q4 2021 AFFO of $149 million, quarter-over-quarter increases included a $50 million lift for the Alberta power market, $10 million from increased generation on our Ontario facilities, $17 million from the acquisition of Midland Co-Generation Facility, and a $24 million uplift from lower-current income taxes.
Speaker 5: These results were partially offset by 12 million, primarily from higher LTSA costs resulting from increased generation.
Speaker 5: The strategic decisions impacting these results included 60 million for the optimization of our Alberta carbon emission credit inventory, which is expected to add a net present value uplift of over 10 million over 2023 and 2024.
Speaker 5: It also includes 30 million for the Gen. 3 planned outage, which was deferred from the spring of 2022, and costs associated with CCS Feed Study and community investments announced in the quarter.
Speaker 5: Overall, strong Q4 results were balanced by key strategic decisions which shifted the timing of significant shareholder value to other periods.
Speaker 5: On slide 9, I'll review our overall 2022 financial performance that significantly exceeded our expectations.
Speaker 5: Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.4 billion was up 20% and benefited from strong fleet-wide performance, higher realized Alberta power prices, and the acquisition of Midland CoGen Facility.
Speaker 5: We generated 848 million AFFO of 40% compared to 2021.
Speaker 5: AFFO reflects strong-adjusted evida results, lower-finet finance expenses, lower preferred shared dividends, partially offset by higher sustaining CAPX. Overall, financial results surpass the top end of our revised financial guidance ranges from outstanding fleet-wide performance.
Speaker 5: Moving to slide 10, the chart illustrates the outlook for Alberta Power Prices in 2023.
Speaker 5: The blue line shows the 2023 monthly forward prices from November 18, 2022, which was used for the 2023 guidance range with an average power price of $136 per megawatt hour for the year.
Speaker 5: The yellow line shows January and February month-to-date actual power prices, which have settled well below the November 18th forward prices due to very warm weather and strong renewable generation.
Speaker 5: In fact, January was the second warmest January since 1950 in Alberta.
Speaker 5: However, for the balance of the year, current forward prices, as noted by the yellow dotted line, have strengthened relative to the November 2022 forward prices.
Speaker 5: While year-to-date results have been below expectations, going forward we expect to see similar market volatility as we have seen in recent years, and given our competitive fleet of Alberta assets, we are well positioned to capitalize on these opportunities.
Speaker 5: Turning to slide 11, I'll touch on our Alberta Power natural gas hedge positions as of the end of 2022. The Power hedge position for 2023 is 10,000 gigawatt hours in the high $70 per megawatt hour range, which is unchanged from our disclosure at investor day in December . The Power hedge position for 2020 is 10,000 gigawatt hours in the high $70 per megawatt hour range.
Speaker 5: Heaging has increased for 2024 to 7,000 gigawatt hours in the low $70 per megawatt hour range, and 2025 has increased to 6,000 gigawatt hours, hedged in the high $60 per megawatt hour range.
Speaker 5: In addition to the remaining open-based load position, gas peaking and renewable assets are available to capture the higher power prices.
Speaker 5: The hedge strategy provides stability by reducing fluctuations in cash flows and optimizing price and volume positions that mitigate against price changes and market illiquidity.
Speaker 5: The hedge position includes longer duration origination contracts as another mechanism to manage price risk.
Speaker 5: The graph on the left shows the relative magnitude of hedges that were long duration and extended out to years where we will see lower power prices.
Speaker 5: The weighted average hedge price is in the high $60 per megawatt hour for contract terms greater than 12 months.
Speaker 5: Natural gas prices will have an increasingly more material impact on our financial results as we transition off coal. Natural gas volumes of 50,000 TJs in 2023, 60,000 in 2024 and 50,000 in 2025 have been hedged at favorable prices below $2.00 per TJ in 2023 and 2020.
Speaker 5: As I highlighted earlier, 2022 was our strongest year for financial results and 2023 results will build on this momentum.
Speaker 5: There are several large planned outages this year at Shepherd Decatur and Gen. 1-2 and other outages at Halcurt and Quality Wind.
Speaker 5: Sustaining CAP-X is expected to be between 135 and 145 million. With the various climbed outages, we have set at 94% availability target.
Speaker 5: For 2023, we guided to 1.455 billion to 1.515 billion in adjusted EBITDA and 855 to 865 million in AFFO based on an average forward price of $136 per megawatt hour.
Speaker 5: As mentioned, with Alberta power prices for January and February below these levels, we are currently trending towards the lower end of the guidance range.
Speaker 5: A further update will be provided with our first quarter 2023 results.
Speaker 5: Our growth outlook for 2023 is positive. This includes our well-positioned natural gas facilities in Ontario to address the capacity gap in the province, as Brian highlighted earlier. And as part of our $600 million of committed growth capital target, we expect to make an investment decision on two renewable projects this year.
Speaker 2: We will now begin the question and answer session.
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will pause for a moment as colors shine the cue.
The first question comes from David Kizabah from Greymont, James. Please go ahead.
Sorry, he left it to you.
The first question comes from Maurice Joy.
First question comes from Maurice Joy from RBC Capital Markets.
Please go ahead.
Thank you and good morning. I just want to come back to slide 10 at your directional guidance, trending to the low end of your 2023 range. I'm trying to parse some of what you factored into this directional guidance. I assume that the January and February lower settle prices.
After then, as you can see, you see $136 a spot price for the remainder of the year. And as you mentioned, it's like 10 pounds per year has strengthened. And it brings back to it into your directional guidance.
What are you thinking that it may not settle as the forward to just keep it all to you? Thanks, Marie. So you weren't coming in very clearly, but I think I caught the essence of your question. When you're looking at slide 10, what we are saying is that in January and February , certainly power prices did settle.
well below where the forwards were and based on that our results coming into Q1 are expected to be below what we would have expected going back to investor day when we were basing our guidance on $136 per megawatt hour. When you look out as you mentioned the curve has lifted and we expect the curve to remain very vulnerable.
volatility continued throughout the year and we expect that 2023 could continue to be similar to that and as a result we are well positioned to capitalize on that. So I would say that there is still some some upside to the balance of the year. At this point we haven't.
updated our full forecast, which we typically do at Q1, and we'll bake in any new trades that we have done over the last number of months, as well as other factors that have changed in the business. So yes, as you look out to the balance of the year, we are seeing periods of upside relative to our earlier guidance, but our currentity is changing through this time period. So as we start to look at our business column, we see ouraval because we are constitutionally in theTech industry. So anyway,
prepared to mark about the genocency CCS. You mentioned that you could reach FID via this year, and I know previously you've mentioned a more specific quarter being Q3 of this year. Has there been any change to Q3 timing and in the future? What drives the timing of this presentation?
So in terms of the timing of FID, no, it's nothing's changed in terms of the project. In fact, everything has continued in terms of our discussions and in terms of the feed study to be on schedule. So, um.
So no, there hasn't been a change there. The more specific timing is more around the end of October , but give or take a little bit, depending on other circumstances, but no, our general timing is precisely as it was on investor day.
If you did that, I guess, Nipo, I'm also on Nir. What are your thoughts on your tenure as CEO and whether there's a process underway right now, assuming you're not planning on staying past June ?
I'm sorry, didn't quite catch that question.
Just your thoughts on your tenure as CEO and whether or not there's a process underway right now, assuming you're not planning on staying past June .
Yeah, the there is an ongoing process in terms of finding a CEO to assume my role. That process continues and certainly do expect it.
It will come to fruition, it will definitely come to fruition through this year. So I won't be continuing as CEO .
The next question comes from Mark Jervy from CIBC Capital Markets.
Thank you for the call. The next question comes from Mark Jervie from CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
The next question comes from Mark Jervy from CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning everyone. Maybe we can find a little bit of extra detail around the operates the ISO and the extension of the contracts. Just kind of clarify whether or not the existing capacity would get the same extension, the same contracturation of the operates just in terms of how that all comes together. So in terms of the process the operates just
So it's the combination of the operating existing facilities would have a blended contract out to 2035.
And would there be sort of any, I guess, change in the effective capacity payments for the current capacity if that makes sense?
And would there be sort of any, I guess, change in the effective capacity payments for the current capacity if that makes sense? Because they're serving for that edge up.
Yeah, that ends up being part of the negotiation with the ISO in terms of what the overall project looks like going forward to 2035.
Do you have any sense of when you might get a decision on that? So it's a little bit fluid in terms of the timing and the various steps that the ISO has to go through. But we would expect or we'd hope that there'd be something that would be known through.
uses of potential free cash flow just sort of where the NCIB ranks in capital allocation parties today.
Yeah, Mark, as you know, we decided a number of years ago to keep the NCIB available to us in the event that we do see lower share prices and no other options for capital allocation that we think would create more shareholder value. So no set target with respect to buying back a number of shares.
renewable projects, obviously Genesee, RePower and CCS, the view would be that there's still lots of growth and that becomes a priority in terms of excess cash today.
That's correct. The growth would be the priority. Okay. Now, a lot of question from you is just, what do you stand now in terms of the MSSFC and the battery at Genesee?
So, as we had indicated during investor day, we are looking at some technical alternatives to the utilization of batteries and that work and discussions with the ASO have been going well. We haven't totally come to decision points.
reasons in the in the Alberta market so that that's another front on which we would see some potential relief for the utilization of batteries so overall it's looking very promising in terms of
potentially not needing to go forward with that component of the Genesee 1 and 2 repowering.
Get given where you are in the timelines when you have to have clarity on that run.
Actually, we've got until the summer.
In terms of me, you know what what it really requires is the lead time to order batteries
Understood. Okay, thanks Andrew. Thanks Brian . The next question comes from John Mood from TD Securities.
Okay, thanks, Andrew. Thanks, bye. The next question comes from John Moote from TD Securities. Please go ahead.
I'm Gmarne everyone. Maybe just circling back on the CCUS project and tidying on permanent pricing certainty. I'm just wondering if you could give a little more context on how that portion of the project is evolving and when you're hoping to have that finalized. Sorry, didn't hear what component of the project
implementation as opposed to the actual sorting of what and how they're doing it. I think you're seeing increasing comments in support for the need for a secure carbon price. I believe Minister of Environment just
Yesterday was making a speech underlying the need for that, the need for carbon certainty, carbon price certainty, and was implying that that would be around something like a contract for different. So it's going, I would say, you know, it's it's it's
It's the element that's lagging the most, but we do believe we'll have some positive resolution definitely in terms of coming to our approval in principle in July . Okay.
Great, thank you for that. And then on the two renewable projects you're hoping to finalize this year, you've seen better relative opportunities for renewable power, you know, in terms of that FID timeline in Canada or the US right now. And, you know, how's the policy environment playing into that given that, you know, the IRA is fairly well known at this point and, you know, there's expectations for...
similar ITC measures in Canada but not quite finalized at this point. So as we're moving forward and developing a number of projects across both Canada and the United States, we see the prospects continuing to be very positive.
In again, some elements or some areas, some a little bit more clarity around what's intended, but we definitely continue to believe that we'll move forward on two projects this year with significant comfort around.
the different federal programs and in some cases state programs that are being finalized at this point.
Okay, thanks for that. And then maybe just circling back on the Ontario upgrades, what would be the scale of investment if you were successful with both of those? I didn't give any context on that.
Yeah, I'm trying to recall off hand. It's sort of in the order made it to about $100 million.
Okay, great. Okay, I'll leave it there. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Jessica Hoyle from Scotiabank.
Please go ahead. Thanks very much. I just wanted to touch on Genesee repowering. So you mentioned that you experienced labor issues early on, but strategies to retain that talent were progressing well. So can you just provide a little bit more color here and what you're currently seeing in terms of risks?
on that project just at this point in time.
So, as we move forward, it continues to be a little bit volatile in terms of labour availability in the province, but I can say that just recently we've ramped up, according to plan, the number of people on site as the work surfaces have increased.
and we've been able to meet those calls. So, you know, we're fully resourced at this point in time and we're talking about hundreds and hundreds of jobs. So things are going very well from that perspective.
Great, thanks for that. And then just another one here, just in terms of what you're seeing in the market on midlife natural gas opportunities at this point. So there continues to be opportunities in the market.
And it's actually, as we continue to monitor what's going on, we do expect that there'll be a number of opportunities coming to the market through the balance of the year.
Thanks for the call.
Once again, if you have a question, please press bar then one.
The next question comes from Najib Beidun from AIA Capital Markets.
Hi, good morning. I just wanted to pick up on the last comment and maybe put it...
and about a picture of cost of capital. What's your view on not today, given the last note issuance, I guess it would have been close to what the preferred sort of we set at. What's kind of your view on cost of capital today?
How's up maybe playing to your thinking about new oppositions.
Sure. So when you look at the cost of capital for us and where interest rates are going, we do factor that into our hurdle rates. And we do take a longer term view as opposed to just where rates are today. But we do see that there is upward pressure on the debt side with respect to our cost of capital.
And that, as I said, is part of our analysis when we're looking at what hurdle rates we should be using on any of these growth projects.
When you think about it from a competitive perspective, particularly interest rates, generally will be reflected in everybody's cost of capital. So it's sort of like all boats rise.
I guess generally there's also a change of philosophy on leverage profile or kind of the balance sheet or how much debt you'd be comfortable adding given just the increased costs. Yeah, when we look at our leverage, we are looking at our credit metrics and our overall balance sheet. So, we feel that we're looking at our credit metrics and our overall balance sheet.
well positioned with our cash flow that we have available for to supply funding for our growth. So we continue to stay well within our metrics on our credit.
credit metrics for both rating agencies. Okay, that's very clear. And just one other question, maybe just...
your approach or the philosophy behind, I guess, new gas versus storage. I think for East Windsor, there was also potentially considerations for battery investment there. So just maybe the puts and takes of the different options that you were considering in the Ontario market. So as we look at it.
batteries. Gorway in the shorter term, battery solutions seem to be a better approach in the longer term that may well be a site because we do expect additional procurement rounds. We do expect that may be a site for additional natural gas growth.
So a lot of it is, you know, what is appropriate in this round and, again, what will gain stakeholder support for all three projects. We've got a written approach or written support from the various...
City and town councils supporting those projects and that's of course, a very significant part of the scoring and the approval process. So, but the three projects we put forward, we think are the best fit at this point in time for moving forward with.
construction and providing additional capacity in the market from our facilities.
Okay, not many seconds. Thanks for it. Thank you for the color.
Thank you for the colour.
The next question comes from David Kizada from Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Thank you, morning everyone. Just one for me. I'm curious, Brian , among your pipeline of projects in the Myso region in the US, are you able to comment at all how those projects stack up in terms of the position in the grid and our connection.
So they actually, they stack up well in terms of their general competitiveness and, you know, they are in various cues or in a connection, which is, which is, which is,
Typically, these days were projects to be within the striking range of RFPs. They do need to be pretty much in the queue and in process to get interconnection. And also, you get a greater idea of cost when you're in the queue and working with the client.
I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Rending Ma for any closing remarks. Okay, if there are no more questions, we will conclude our call. Thank you for joining us today and for your interest in capital power. Have a good day everyone.
This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.
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