Q4 2022 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Call
Speaker 2: Good day and welcome to the Abercrombie and Fitch...
Speaker 2: Fourth quarter year and fiscal year 2022 earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again.
Speaker 2: At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mo Gupta. Please go ahead.
Speaker 3: Thank you. Good morning and welcome to our fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. Joining me today on the call are Fran Horowitz, Chief Executive Officer, and Scott Lopesky, Chief Financial Officer.
Speaker 3: Earlier this morning, we issued our fourth quarter earnings release, which is available on our website at corporate.abercrombie.com under the investors section.
Speaker 3: Also available on our website is an investor presentation. Please keep in mind that any forward-looking statements made on the call are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Speaker 3: from the expectations and assumptions we mentioned today.
Speaker 3: A detailed discussion of these factors and uncertainties is contained in the company's reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Speaker 3: In addition, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures during the call. Additional details and reconciliations of GAAP to adjusted non-GAAP financial measures are included in the release and investor presentation issued earlier this morning. With that, I will turn the call over to Fran. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. And a warm welcome to Mo on his return to A&F.
Speaker 4: leading our investor relations efforts.
Speaker 4: I'm excited to share our fourth quarter and full year results.
Speaker 4: We finished the quarter with sales surpassing the outlook range we provided in our early January business updates for a strong close to the year. 2022 was another year of twists and turns and I'd like to thank our global associates as well as our partners. For once again, stepping up to deliver solid financial results while making progress against our long term strategic priority.
Speaker 4: we laid out plans to pivot our investments to optimize sales growth, operating margin, and inventory.
Speaker 4: Our teams rally to deliver on each of those dimensions, leveraging the agility we have gained from our transformation efforts these past few years.
Speaker 4: At the start of every year, my goal is to make this organization stronger. And we have done that once again in 2022.
Speaker 4: Allow us to start 2023 from a position of strength with so much opportunity in front of us.
Speaker 4: Today, I'll cover our fourth quarter and our full year 2022 results, reflecting on our progress in the past year. Then I'll conclude with our objectives and priorities for 2023.
Speaker 4: For the fourth quarter, we grew sales 3% year-over-year on a reported basis and 5% on a constant currency basis. This growth was enabled by having inventory on hand to meet demand during the peak holiday period.
Speaker 4: We purposely built inventory in the second and third quarters with the target to be around flat to last year by year end. We delivered on that goal with inventory, finishing down 4% to year end 2021.
Speaker 4: While sales trends improved sequentially across brands, performance was once again led by continued strength of Abercrombie & Fitch brand.
Speaker 4: I am incredibly proud to report that the Abercrombie Brands, which includes Abercrombie & Fitch and Abercrombie Kids grew 14% from Q4 2021 or 16% on a constant currency basis.
Speaker 4: All the work we have done to bring this brand back, it was incredibly special to see the Abercrombie & Fitch women's business achieve its highest quarterly sales in brand history. An impressive follow-up to a similar record in the third quarter.
Speaker 4: I was also thrilled to see growth in the men's business accelerate sequentially from Q3.
Speaker 4: At Hollister, we saw sequential trend improvement, delivering sales down 4% to 2021 on a reported basis and down 2% on a constant currency basis. While we still have progress to make, we are beginning to see trend improvement, product and organizational actions taken in late summer.
Speaker 4: something we will carry forward into 2023, which I'll talk more about in a moment.
Speaker 4: Taking a step back from the quarter and reflecting on the full year, one word comes to mind, complex. With the conflict in Ukraine, rising inflation and continued COVID-related measures impacting the consumer, a back to normal did not happen in retail.
Speaker 4: With all this uncertainty, our focus was simple. Control what we could control. While that meant making short-term strategic decisions, we also kept an eye on the long-term. In June , we held our first investor day since 2018 and presented our 2025 always forward plan.
Speaker 4: transitioning our mindset from transformation to growth.
Speaker 4: The Always Forward Plan is underpinned by three key pillars.
Speaker 4: delivering focused brand growth, executing an enterprise-wide digital revolution, and operating with financial discipline.
Speaker 4: Starting with the first pillar, focus brand growth.
Speaker 4: In June , we discussed the Abercrombie & Fitch brand as our number one growth opportunity for the company.
Speaker 4: Having completed one of the most impressive brand turnarounds you will see in this industry, our team has continued to build momentum with this brand.
Speaker 4: Abacrami Brand's finished 2022 at 1.7 billion in total sales of a growth rate of 11% in your year with 13% on a constant currency basis.
Speaker 4: The Abercrombie & Fitch brand, our assortment, marketing, and values continue to align with our customer as we look to outfit them from their in-office work days to their long weekend adventure.
Speaker 4: the Abacrombian Fitch Brand, our assortment, marketing and values continue to align with our customer as we look to outfit them from their in-office work days to their long weekend adventures. A few other highlights for the year in Abacrombie.
Speaker 4: Our women's bottoms business had the highest full year sales in the history of the brand.
Speaker 4: The Best Dressed Guest franchise helped us deliver the best year ever for women's dresses.
Speaker 4: And we launched our newest franchise, YPB, your personal best in Q1 to an amazing customer response.
Speaker 4: Why could be leggings and squirreneck tank were both named to the best leggings and best tops lists in the Self Magazine Active Wear Awards.
Speaker 4: Along with multiple AF brand items featured in men's health, Esquire, or Finery29.
Speaker 4: People magazine and more.
Speaker 4: As we set new records across key product categories, we continued to leverage our marketing efforts to drive customer engagement and conversion.
Speaker 4: Our authentic and innovative initiatives across the platform resulted in two amazing awards this year.
Speaker 4: We received the performance marketing strategy of the year award by LTK, the world's largest influencer and creator commerce platform, and the brand was named to the brands that matter list by SaaS company. With the brand firing at all cylinders, we opened 21 stores and right sides and another four across Abokrami and Fetch and Abokrami Kids brand.
Speaker 4: We continue to focus on smaller, more productive stores, which is a key enabler of improved four-wall operating margin. We believe storage expansion and marketing execution nicely positions advertising brands for growth for the growth expectations in the OEFs forward plan.
Speaker 4: Turning to Hollister, 2022 was certainly a challenge.
Speaker 4: Hollister, including Gilly Hicks and Social Tourists, finished the year with $1.96 billion in 2018 sales, down 9% in 2021, or down 6% on a constant currency basis.
Speaker 4: The Tina Parallel space took a step back early this summer as global inflationary pressure is mounted.
Speaker 4: While macro factors certainly impacted the business, we had opportunities within our own operations to realign product, voice, and experience to better match the changing customer mindset.
Speaker 4: We quickly address these opportunities, making multiple changes this summer, spanning people, process and inventory investments to get back on track and allow us to more quickly respond to changes in the marketplace. Our teams have made shifts across the assortment to provide better balance. As an example, we're leading into more cargo and dresses.
Speaker 4: On top of these product shifts, we are reviewing every aspect of the Hollister brand voice and customer journey. Our team customer continues to favor the in-store experience with more than two-thirds of Hollister sales happening in-store in 2022.
Speaker 4: During the year, we opened 38 stores, finishing 2022 with 529 stores globally. Towards the end of the year, we introduced our evolved store design in a few locations which continues to open up and brighten the shopping experience while offering improved product placement flexibility. You will continue to see the store play an integral world holster as we move forward.
Speaker 4: and combined with the assortment evolution, our team will have all the pieces in place to stabilize the brand and return to growth later this year.
Speaker 4: For Gillie Hicks in 2022, we evolve the grand positioning and assortment, readyings to move into our free standing stores, a majority of which open in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 4: In 2023, we are focused on delivering our active lifestyle assortment to the customer across physical and digital touchpoints.
Speaker 4: The shift into activewear is a key part of the evolution for Gilly Hicks. Up until recently, Gilly has been weighted to Intimates and sleepwear as it started as a complement to the Hollister brand.
Speaker 4: We are now broadening categories to get to our target assortment mix between active, lounge, and intimate.
Speaker 4: Something we'll continue learning more about as we go through the year.
Speaker 4: Lastly, a quick update on social tours. We've continued to use the brand to push fashion content and how to serve and leverage learnings around social engagement across all brands.
Speaker 4: In summary, our ambition of focused brand growth will be apparent in 2023. For Abercrombie Brands, we expect to distort resources to digital marketing and store expansion to capitalize on the momentum.
Speaker 4: For Hollister, the work is underway to optimize the product and brand voice, positioning us for growth in the second half of the year.
Speaker 4: And for Gilly Hicks, we'll continue to read results from the Evolve assortment mix with a trigger strategy in place to allocate additional resources to drive customer acquisition later in the year.
Speaker 4: Moving on to our second pillar, executing an enterprise-wide digital revolution. For context, at 1.6 billion in sales, our digital business is approximately 44% of our total sales in 2022. Across brands, our customer journeys are different and ever evolving.
Speaker 4: necessitating a robust set of tools and technologies. Our team has been hard at work modernizing our technology foundation. A focus area in 2022 is evolving our data infrastructure to enable faster, more predictive insights which will largely conclude in 2023.
Speaker 4: We also kicked off a multi-year upgrade of our retail merchandising ERP, touching several key systems to provide a platform with more flexibility.
Speaker 4: These modernization efforts are integral to enabling future organic growth and incremental go-to-market opportunities like wholesale, franchise, and or partnerships.
Speaker 4: These projects will take time, but we've designed our deployment schedule to realize value as quickly as possible.
Speaker 4: On the customer experience side of our digital revolution, we are improving the experience across the web, mobile apps, and stores. We set up continuous feedback and delivery loops to ensure we are finding and focusing on the highest impact opportunities. One example we've talked about is shared a pay. A feature that enables our customers to easily share their digital shopping bag with family member or friend to complete the purchase. Share and pay is an example of how our new digital teams are applying customer analysts.
Speaker 4: And for our last pillar, operating with financial discipline, it was another year where we needed to flex this muscle. With over 250 million dollars of inflation hitting us in 2022 compared to 2021.
Speaker 4: We need to balance playing offense and defense.
Speaker 4: On offense, we opened 59 new stores and accelerated key digital and technology investments. On defense, we managed expenses and inventory tightly.
of your end.
We are optimistic they have gotten to the worst of freight costs and supply chain disruptions.
Importantly, each of our brands entered 2023 in a position to chase inventory and we will continue demonstrating agility in managing the cost-sized business while balancing the long-term investments that enable growth. As we wrap up, just one more thought on our industry leading team and culture. , ,
While the past three years have been the most challenging I've seen in my 35 years in retail, the learnings and collaboration we've achieved has made both our company and our associates stronger. I was so proud of our company to be recognized yet again as a Best Workplace in Retail by Great Place to Work and Fortune.
Additionally, we received a perfect score on the Human Rights Campaign's 2022 corporate equality index for the 16th year in a row, with designation as one of the best places to work for LGBTQ plus equality. As we say regularly, changes the only constant retail.
And our team will continue to balance being reactive to shifts in the market, while staying focused on our long term strategic priorities to drive sustainable, profitable growth in 2023 and beyond. We enter the year well prepared, focused and ready to execute across the 3 pillars of our always forward plan.
With that, I'll hand it off to Scott to provide more color on our results and additional details for our 2023 outlook. Thanks, Fran and good morning. I'm also proud of how our teams wrapped up 2022, delivering improved results in both the third and fourth quarters.
I'll start by covering Q4 results on both year on year and sequential comparisons along with the rundown of our full year 2022 performance. I'll then provide some color on our 2023 outlook.
For Q4, we delivered net sales of $1.2 billion, up 3% to 2021 on a reported basis, and up 5% on a constant currency basis.
This was above the range we provided in early January due to a better than expected finish to the month.
As Fran mentioned, we saw trends improve sequentially at both Abercrombie and Hollister. Net sails at Abercrombie, which includes kids, rose 14% compared to 2021 on a reported basis, and 16% on a constant currency basis. This compares to Abercrombie's Q3 reported in constant currency growth of 10% and 13% respectively. Hollister, which includes Gilly Hicks and Social Taurus, declined 4% or 2% on a constant currency basis.
and 7% on a constant currency basis. An APAC was down 21% on a reported basis and 13% on a constant currency basis.
In Emea, our strongest markets continue to be the Middle East and the UK, but the region largely remains soft. In A-PAC, while sales were down to last year in the fourth quarter, we are excited to see the region reopen with the lifting of the zero COVID policy in China.
of the year-over-year change were the adverse impact of exchange rates of 100 basis points and higher product costs of 160 basis points with higher cotton costs and inventory reserves more than offsetting lower freight costs. On a constant currency basis, AUR was up slightly with Abercrombie higher than last year and Hollister lower than last year as we made a strong push to sell through Hollister clearance product.
On inventory, we ended the quarter down 4% last year, which was better than our expectation of around flat that we have discussed the past couple quarters.
Across brands, we are positioned to chase inventory this spring and beyond.
I'll cover the rest of our Q4 results on an adjusted non-gap basis. We excluded 4.7 and 1.9 million of pre-tax affin impairment charges for this year and last year respectively.
These charges adversely impact your results by $0.7 and $0.3 this year and last year respectively.
Q4 operating expense, excluding other operating income, was $575 million compared to $581 million last year, with lower marketing and incentive-based compensation partially offset by operating cost inflation. Operating income was approximately $92 million compared to $100 million last year.
Changes in foreign currency adversely impacted operating income by approximately $18 million.
The tax rate for the quarter was 49.7% at the high end of our expectation, primarily due to our inability to realize a benefit on certain tax losses incurred outside of the US.
Net income privilege share was 81 cents compared to $1.14 last year.
Changes in foreign currency adversely impacted earnings per share by approximately 23 cents. Turning to full year 2022 results, which I'll cover on an adjusted non-gap basis.
Full year results excluded approximately 14 million of pre-tax acid impairment charges, which adversely impact a result by 20 cents. In 2021, we excluded $12 million pre-tax acid impairment charges, which adversely impact a result by 15 cents.
For the year, net sales were $3.7 billion, flat to 2021, and up 2% on a constant currency
For the year, digital sales penetration was 44%. By brand, Abercrombie delivered 11% growth on a reported basis and 13% growth on a constant currency basis.
Hollister declined 9% or 6% on a constant currency basis. By region, the US grew 4% for the year, while the international business was down 11% on a reported basis or 4% on a constant currency basis.
Growth-probit rate with 56.9% compared to 62.3% in 2021.
For the full year, foreign currency adversely impacted growth profit rate by approximately 40 basis points.
For product costs, we saw approximately $200 million dollars or 520 basis points of higher input costs, including approximately $90 million for freight and $110 million for cotton and other raw materials.
While AUR improved over 2021 levels and remains well above 2019, the growth was not enough to offset the higher cost.
Operating expense, excluding other operating income was 2 billion or 54.1% of sales compared to 52.9% of sales in 2021.
Compared to 2021, the increase was driven by inflation, digital investments, and higher digital fulfillment expenses partially offset by lower marketing and incentive-based compensation.
Operating income was 107 million or 2.9% of sales compared to 355 million or 9.6% in 2021.
The reduction was due primarily by the lower gross profit rate due to higher freight and raw material costs as well as operating what's Zero my
Foreign currency further reduced operating income by $30 million compared to 2021.
The effective tax rate for the year was 74.6%. Net income per deluded share was 25 cents compared to $4.35 in 2021. We exited the year in a strong financial position with cash and cash equivalents of 518 million and total liquidity of approximately 866 million.
Capital expenditures were $165 million for 2022, with about half spent primarily on stores and the other half on digital and technology.
For the year, we repurchase a total of 4.8 million shares for approximately $126 million and $8 million of secured notes.
On the store fleets for the year, we opened 59 stores and closed 26, ending the year with 762 stores.
As we focus on brand growth, we expect to be in a net store opening position again in 2023, although we expect to open fewer new stores than in 2022.
As mentioned in our June investor day, we expect to see only modest changes in growth square footage and occupancy dollars. I'll finish up with our thoughts on 2023. For the full year, we expect net sales growth in the range of 1-3 percent from 3.7 billion in 2022 with Abercrombie brands leading the growth.
We expect the growth will be tilted toward the back half of the year, driven primarily by the 53rd reporting week in the fourth quarter and net new stores. Geographically, we expect the U.S. to continue to outperform international. For the international business, our inventory is in a good place and we are ready to chase as necessary as we see trends improve.
As a reminder, our largest countries outside North America are the UK, followed by Germany, China and France. We expect a full year operating margin to be in the range of 4 to 5% compared to reported and adjusted operating margin of 2.5% and 2.9% respectively in 2022. In terms of drivers, we expect around 200 basis points from a net benefit and product.
For the tax rate, we are forecasting a rate in the mid-40s.
On inventory, we will continue to manage tightly and work to keep all brands in a position to chase. We see continued opportunity to reduce inventory, especially in the 1st, 3 quarters of the year compared to 2022 where we front loaded inventory due to ongoing supply chain uncertainty. Regarding capital allocation, we expect capital expenditures of approximately 160M.
Just over half the spend will cover digital and technology, and the remaining will primarily cover stores.
For excess liquidity, we expect to continue to focus on share and debt repurchases pending cash flow, business conditions, and market prices.
Entering 2023, we have approximately 232M dollars remaining on the 500M dollar share repurchase authorization established in November 2021.
For the first quarter, we expect net sales to be approximately flat to the Q-1 2022 level of 813 million.
Our sales outlook assumes an adverse impact of a approximately 140 basis points from foreign currency.
Operating margin to be in the range of breakeven to 2%. Compared to reported and adjusted operating margin of approximately negative 1% in the 1st quarter of 2022.
Similar to the full-year outlook, we expect operating margins to benefit year-over-year from the net reduction in freight and raw material costs, partially offset by the impact of inflation as well as operating expense investments related to the 2025 Always Forward Plan.
For the tax rate, we expect it to be volatile in Q1 on expected low levels of income. We expect to incur tax expense regardless of the level of taxable income or loss.
As Fran mentioned, we remain cautiously optimistic on consumer demand in 2023. While broad inflation is yet to abate, we are pleased with the reductions we have seen and freight and cotton over the past six months.
These benefits will work through the income statement on a different cadence. With freight benefits weighted to the first half and moderating in the second half, we expect cotton to be a headwind in the first half and moderate in the second half, netting to a headwind for the full year.
From there, we are funding necessary investments in the customer experience and in the modernization of our system to improve agility and speed while focusing on generating the free cash flow necessary to maintain our strong financial position.
we are funding necessary investments in the customer experience and in the modernization of our system to improve agility and speed while focusing on generating the free cash flow necessary to maintain our strong financial position. And with that operator, we are now ready for questions.
And thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. And one moment for our first question.
And our first question comes from Dana Telsey from Telsey Advisor Group. Your line is now open.
Hi, good morning everyone. As you think about the Hollister business and the improvements that you're seeing, how do you frame it for 2023, whether stores, whether digital and how you're thinking about it? And then also, Scott, can you talk to it all, the breakdown of the margin opportunity for 2023? How do you frame it for 2023?
in terms of freight and how you're balancing that, given your clean inventories, with pricing and the environment. Thank you.
Hey, Dana, good morning. So let's talk about Halister for a few minutes. We were very pleased to see the improvement with Halister and the sequential improvement that we saw from the third to the fourth quarter. As you know, we were on a journey with Halister last year.
you know, around back to school, the whole teen market took a little bit of a step back at that time. And what we did was we really dove in to see, you know, how much of that was driven by macro and how much of that did we own.
We assess our situation and we made some changes as I mentioned earlier, people, product, we made sure our receipts were back in line for our trend in the back half and we chased into product that was working like cargos and dresses. So, the inventories are clean as we now head into 23. we're pleased with the inventory levels are and what's most exciting is that we have chase.
strains on the supply chain was much harder for us to chase and really be able to react to what's going on. So we are cross-lce optimistic as we head into 23 as we've discussed and our expectation is to return to growth in the back half of the year. All right, let me pick up the margin piece. So as we look to 2023 or expectation...
as a headwind for next year, but do see a good amount of that freight coming back in in 2023. From there, we do expect a little bit of de-leverage on the expense base. Just due to inflation as well as some of the longer-term investments we're making in digital and technology. So for the year, again, 4% to 5% on the operating margin line.
As we think about balancing that with inventory, Fran hit it, you know, for the Hollister brand, but in total, all of our brands are in position to chase right now. That gives us an opportunity on the AUR front as we go into 2023. We're not assuming anything big there. Obviously, the dynamics out there with the consumer and inflation are, you know, in flux every day. But we have the opportunity with lower inventories across all of our brands to hopefully raise the AUR this year.
Thank you. And thank you.
And one moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Cory Tarlo from Jeffery's and Company. Your line is not open. Yeah, I don't know you a bit there.
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the continued strong results.
So, could you talk a little bit, Fran, about the success that you drove in the fourth quarter at Abercrombie and Fitch? I know that you've seen some really great momentum in women's and dresses as well, but maybe could you talk a little bit more about...
why you think that that momentum is sustainable and should help to continue to drive Brazil throughout the next year. And then Scott, just on stores, I know that yet again, I think you're going to be a net opener of stores, but it sounds like you're actually going to be opening fewer than you were last year. But I'll be all about that said.
continuing our momentum at A&F. You know, coming off another strong year for the brand which is super exciting what we've been able to accomplish in this turnaround. And there are so many exciting things happening and certainly to come. So a great example of that is women's bottoms. Our best year ever in women's bottoms and that goes way beyond just denim.
So there's a whole trend happening in pants, which women are now wearing back to work. They're going back to the office. They're able to use those as transitional outfits to wear them to go out because we know how social our Abercrombie customer tends to be.
We also launched a new franchise called YPB, which is our active wear. We launched that because our customers said to us, you know, we know you can do this well. We'd love to see some active wear from you. And they really responded nicely. So there's just lots of opportunity. Our best dressed guest franchise, we talked a lot about all the weddings in 2022. There's even more to come for 2023 and they're coming to us for all the special occasions.
We opened 59 close 26. We will slow down the 59 as we go into 2023. As we look at 2022, there were tons of great malls that we wanted to get back into. And we were able to find the right deals with our landlord partners. And they were successful. Looking at those stores, the productivity on a square footage basis, the new stores versus the old.
we still have great opportunities around the country and really around the world.
Great thanks so much and best of luck. Thanks. Great.
Thanks so much and best of luck. Thanks, Greg. And thank you.
And one moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Paul Elegowitz from City, Uline is not Open. The next question comes from Paul Elegowitz.
Hi, Fran. Hi, Scott. This is Kelly on for Paul. Thanks for taking your question. Any chance you can talk about brand performance, specifically in the U.S., and then how are trends performing in coordinate overall, but also by region? We've heard from others that maybe the macro is starting to take a toll on Europe in one or two weeks, so thank you.
And then just bigger picture, how are you thinking about the Europe region? Is it possible you could maybe look to close some stores in Europe just given the difficulties you've seen there over the last couple of years? Things?
We're going to start a little bit backwards. So you were at our investor day with us back in June and we talked about the fact that we still believe that we have an opportunity, a nice long-term opportunity in our international business that's part of our OE-Spoward plan. Coming out of COVID, we've had a little bit of a starter.
starting back up in some of those countries. But we believe long-term in both regions of May and APAC, you're excited to see an APAC particularly removing of this zero COVID policy. We've got a team there in place ready to go and chase goods at this point. And in the May, we still have seen a strong business in the UK in the Middle East. We have work to do in the Middle East.
more momentum coming in the future. As we think about Hollister, also made a really good comeback. We had a second quarter low here in the US where it stepped back as that inflation started to rage and we saw that teen space come in in Q2 and that group has really built up in Q3 and in the Q4 and a lot of that has been driven here in the US. So nice to see a comeback in Hollister.
As Fran mentioned, we have some work to do in the future and we're very focused on that brand, but happy with the progress we've made today. So I'd like to just follow up on the ANS brand. You sound very excited about the opportunity in 23, but I just wonder if you'd talk more specifically about what's driving the growth. Is it coming from a UR, is it coming from World of Units, and then beyond white...
Our Sloan pants is something that has now caught on incredibly well. We named the pants named and claimed it as we like to say in retail. And now everyone is referring to it. It's one of the one of our best selling items that we have out there for women.
So growth is going to continue through product innovation, getting that product-boist experience on target as we've been doing. There is potential. We've grown the AUR extremely well since pre-pandemic up over double digits. And there's a focus to continue to believe we have opportunity there as well.
is going to continue through product innovation, getting that product voice and experience on target as we've been doing. There is potential. We've grown the AUR extremely well since pre-pandemic up over double digits. And there's a focus to continue to believe we have opportunity there as well. Thank you.
And thank you. And one moment for our next question.
And our next question comes from Marnie Shapiro from Retail Tracker. Your line is now open. Your line is now open.
Hey guys, congratulations. The stores look beautiful.
Talk about two quick things if I can. Can you, on the real estate, are you finding that the market is a little tighter and are you able to still get the deals you want to be in those malls and if not, are you holding back and willing to wait? And then can you just give us a quick update on your loyalty programs? I'm curious what the engagement looks like and are people signing up and are they engaged in using the perks?
I think you've heard me say many times, right? As far as stores matter, absolutely. It's got to be the right location and right economics. And as we've shown over the past several years, yes, we'll hold if we are not getting the deals that we need to make this economically viable for us.
With that said, we opened some really terrific stores in 2022. There will be back in some of the best malls. We've walked away from it, and now we have all our new prototypes in them and doing nicely. So there's no finish line to real estate for us. We're always out there exploring and understanding what the opportunities are. But quick answer is yes, we will hold. Let's have the right deal.
On the loyal programs, we continue to drive these, our identifiable customer rate has gone up dramatically over the past few years. So it's great to see customers signing up for this. We can share information back and forth and really leverage this group to kind of help us with product and also on the top line. So we are still signing people up. We refresh these programs each brand over the past 12 months.
and excited about what that brings to us, really from an identifiable customer perspective. Great, thanks guys. Good luck with spring. Thank you. And thank you. And one moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Janet Joseph Klopbenberg from J.J.K. Research. Your line is not open.
Good morning everybody. Congratulations on the progress. I got on a little bit late, but I was going to talk about Hollister U.S. in the fourth quarter.
Did you say if they were directionally positive or negative? I think they were better than the European trends in the third quarter, but still negative maybe mid-single digits.
And another question is you're looking for the sales weights to just sell a weight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of fiscal 23. And I'm just wondering, you know, what's involved in that, you know, it...
or if you're seeing some resistance from the consumer or if you're not as optimistic about Hollister, maybe you could give us an indication of what led to that top-line guidance. And just lastly, I think Franny said that Hollister was really clean.
But I wonder how the mock-down levels were and if the seasonal product clearance was in good shape and had been cleared. Thank you so much.
All right, Dana, let's get it rolling. So on Hollister US trends for Q4, the Hollister US business was around flat for Q4, and that's a really nice improvement off of where we were kind of that negative. Yeah. Yeah, versus where we were in Q2 and even in Q3. So really nice progress there. As we think about the Q1 outlook, kind of the sales rate Q4 into Q1.
kind of in the early Q2 period. So we're really factoring all of that into our outlook. The volumes, you know, February's a low month and the volume is really gonna start to ramp up here with spring break and the Easter holidays. So, you know, getting kind of to that next question on inventory, we like where the inventory sits on a spring basis for each of the brands. So we're ready for that volume.
And, you know, again, sitting here cautiously optimistic and on the Hollister piece around how clean we are. Yeah, we've made a lot of progress. It was it was a kind of grind there in 2022. Whenever that business fell off and Q2 through Q4, we were pressing the gas on getting through that clearance. A lot of that was from that back to school period in early fall. We've made great progress on that. You sell a little bit of that margin.
take there in to make that happen, but very happy to say that the Hollister Brands in a nice chase position now for spring and beyond just like the Abercrombie pitch has been.
Did you see any improvement in Europe ? Scott, as a Hollister in the fourth quarter, or how did that trigger?
Yeah, some, you know, that that business has been obviously lagging the US that's been a multi year trend for us coming out of COVID something that we're very focused on as we're going through the spring season. And we do feel that all the changes that we're making that are going to help here in the US will eventually help us in as well as APAC. So, you know, again, cautious optimism as we look to the global business for Hollister.
And I think Fran said that maybe...
She expects Hollis to inflect this year. Maybe you said second half, I can't remember. But I was just wondering if you thought it may inflect in the US in the first half? Yeah, we've seen some inflection here, obviously, in the fourth quarter, but I think we're all...
you know, waiting for is how we lap that Q2 period. Obviously the whole team space fell off Q2 of last year. We kind of ramped in the back of school. There were a lot of things happening from a macro perspective in the economy with inflation raging, et cetera. So I think all of us in the team space are excited to lap that.
and we're all especially are setting up our businesses to do that in a good way, but time will tell and we'll see what happens as we get to that point.
Thank you so much and good luck. Thank you. And thank you. And one moment for our next question.
And our next question comes from Alex Stratton from Morgan Stanley . Your line is now open.
Great, thanks so much for taking the question. Just a couple from me. I think I just wanted to zero in on your cautiously optimistic commentary on consumer demand. Can you just talk about what data points are informing that? And then secondly, this ability to have Chase back in the business of
great to hear. But is there any way you can kind of quantify where you're at now versus what's normal or what was going on in 2022 just so I have a reference point? Thank you so much. Absolutely. You know on the consumer demand side, you know we're always looking at employment levels as well as wage levels. Those both you know both of those things remain very strong and that's very helpful for our customer on the discretionary side. When you think about some of this cautious optimism.
You know, we don't know what the Fed's going to do here in the U.S. and how that's going to kind of ripple through the economy as we go throughout the rest of the year. And as you watch TV or read the news every day, depending on how the winds blow, it's good or bad. So we'll see. But the real point gets to your number two is the things we can control and the best thing we can do is remain in a chase position in inventory.
We got cut up a little bit with Hollister there as the business fell off in Q2 of last year. We've been able to get through that, get all the brands in Chase. And the environment out there for Chase, you've heard a lot about this, talk about it already, is very good. You know, the supply chain isn't back to where it was in 2019, but it's getting closer. And we're able to do things, we're able to test in stores like we haven't been able to in a couple years, and we're able to chase inventory.
in a quicker way than we have been in 2022. So the amount that we're leaving open for Chase, we're not going to give you a percentage, they're much higher than they were in 2021 and 22, and that's great for our business.
Thank you. And thank you.
And if you would like to ask a question that is star 1-1, again, if you would like to ask a question that is star 1-1 and one moment for our next question.
And our next question comes from Marisa Surnadega from UBS. Your line is now open. Hi, good morning. I'm actually taking my questions. Just a couple from Ryan. Just was one of you mentioned on your sales outlook and where you talk about Abercrombie, upper plumbing, polysert, does that imply?
Hollister, sales, our flat, return to positive or just going to understand how much of a performance should be thinking about. And then maybe you could talk about a UR trans across each of the brands. And then lastly, on the tax rate, I know you've got it for high tax rates for this year. If any thought of one word, that could actually...
Converge or you know, conversion the time in the long term. That would be very helpful. Thank you Okay, Marie-Shio good to chat like grab a couple of these so let's talk about the tax rate so yeah The tax rate remains elevated to where it was kind of in that 2019 before COVID period Something where laser focused on you know, we're not getting the ability as the the European and APEC business to step back coming through COVID Not getting the ability to realize some of those tax losses that we're seeing there so
very focused on that and bringing back the international business and that will obviously help the tax rate. On the sales outlook, there's many paths, as we all know, there's many scenarios as we go through 20, 23. We would just expect that Abercrombie would outperform Hollister and likely see the US business outperform the international business. But again, we've been talking about this for the last couple of years. Those are the trends we've been seeing and we're just going to assume we're going to keep seeing them until we don't.
And that's really how we're setting up 2023. Yeah, regarding AUR trends, no digesting. If you take a step back and think about the last several years of disruption, one of the positive outcomes that has come out of that are AUR growth. If we look at pre-pandemic levels today, we actually have doubled digit AUR growth in both brands. And our goal is to hold on to this AUR.
growth as well as hopefully maybe even grow a little bit into the future. The opportunity really comes in the AAC, like we've talked about a couple of times this morning, and the reduction of the freight costs as well as the cotton in the back half.
as well as hopefully maybe even grow a little bit into the future. The opportunity really comes in the AAC, like we've talked about a couple of times this morning, and the reduction of the freight costs as well as the cotton in the back half. Got it. Thank you so much. Thank you.
And thank you. And I am showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Fran for closing remarks.
Just want to say thank you all for joining us today and we look forward to speaking to many of you soon.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message, advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mo Gupta. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning. And welcome to our fourth quarter, 2022 earnings call.
Joining me today on the call are Fran Horowitz, Chief Executive Officer, and Scott Lepesky, Chief Financial Officer. Earlier this morning, we issued our fourth quarter earnings release, which is available on our website at corporate.abrakrombie.com under the Investor section. Also available on our website is an investor presentation. Please keep in mind that any forward-looking statements made on the call are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the private-
be referring to certain non- GAAP financial measures during the call. Additional detailed and reconciliation of GAP to adjusted non- GAAP financial measures are included in the release and investor presentation issued earlier this morning. With that, I will turn the call over to Fran. Good morning and thank you for joining us today and a warm welcome to Moe on his return to A&F leading our investor relations efforts.
I'm excited to share our fourth quarter and full year results. We finished the quarter with sales or passing the outlook range we provided in our early January business update for a strong close to the year.
2022 is another year of twists and turns. I'd like to thank our global associates as well as our partners for once again stepping up to deliver solid financial results on making progress against our long-term strategic priority.
And we have done that once again in 2022.
Allowing us to start 2023 from a position of strength with so much opportunity in front of us. Today, I'll cover our fourth quarter and our full year 2022 results, reflecting on our progress in the past year. Then, I'll conclude with our objectives and priorities for 2023.
For the birth quarter, we grew sales 3% year over year on a reported basis and 5% on a constant currency basis. This growth was enabled by having inventory on hand to meet demand during a peak holiday period.
We purposely built inventory in the second and third quarters with the target to be around flat to last year by year end. We delivered on that goal with inventory finishing down 4% to year end 2021.
While sales trends improve to quantitative cross-brands, performance was once again led by continued strength in the Abercrombie and Fitch brand. I am incredibly proud to report to the Abercrombie brand, which includes Abercrombie and Fitch and Abercrombie Kids, group 14% from Q4 2021 or 16% on a constant currency basis. All the work we have done to bring this brand back, it was incredibly special to see the Abercrombie and Fitch Women's Business achieved its highest quarterly sales and brand.
product and organizational actions taken in late summer, something we will carry forward into 2023, which I'll talk more about in a moment.
Taking a step back from the quarter and reflecting on the full year, one word comes to mind. With a conflict in Ukraine, rising inflation and continued COVID-related measures impacting the consumer, a back to normal did not happen in retail.
With all this uncertainty, our focus was simple. Control what we could control. While that meant making short-term strategic decisions, we also kept an eye on the long-term.
In June , we held our first investor day since 2018 and presented our 2025 Always Forward Plan, transitioning our mindsets from transformation to growth.
The OIS-Fower Plan is underpinned by three key pillars, delivering focused brand growth, executing an enterprise-wide digital revolution, and operating with financial discipline.
Starting with the first pillar, focused brand growth. In June , we discussed Abercrombie & Fitch brand as our number one growth opportunity for the company. Having completed one of the most impressive brand turnarounds you will see in this industry, our team has continued to build momentum with this brand. Every brand finished 2022 at $1.7 billion in total sales.
growth rate of 11% year-over-year or 13% on a constant currency basis.
For the Abercrombie & Fitch brand, our assortment, marketing, and values continue to align with our customer as we look to outfit them from their in-office workdays to their long weekend adventures.
for the Abercrombie and Fitch brand, our assortment, marketing and values, continue to align with our customer as we look to outfit them from their in-office work days to their long weekend adventures. A few other highlights for the year in Abercrombie.
Our women's bottoms business had the highest full year sales in the history of the brand. The Best Dressed Guest franchise helped us deliver the best year ever for women's dresses. And we launched our newest franchise, YPB, your personal best in Q1 to an amazing customer response.
Why could be leggings and square neck tank were both named to the best leggings and best tops lists in the self-magazine active wear awards? Along with multiple AF brand items featured in men's health, Esquire or Finery29, people magazine and more.
As we set new records across key product categories, we continued to leverage our marketing efforts to drive customer engagement and conversion. Our authentic and innovative initiatives across the platform resulted in two amazing awards this year. We received the performance marketing strategy award by LTK.
the world's largest influencer and creator commerce platform. And the brand was named to the brands that matter list by Fast Company.
With the brand firing on all cylinders, we opened 21 stores and right-sized another four across Abercrombie & Fitch and Abercrombie Kids brands.
We continue to focus on smaller, more productive stores, which is a key enabler of improved four-wall operating margin. We believe storage expansion and marketing execution nicely positions advocacy brands for growth for the growth expectations in the OESE-forward plan.
Turning to Hollister, 2022 was certainly a challenge. Hollister, including Gilly Hicks and social tourists, finished the year with $1.96 billion in sales, down 9% in 2021, or down 6% on a constant currency basis. The Tina Peril space took a step back early this summer as global inflationary pressures mounted.
While macro factors certainly impacted the business, we had opportunities within our own operations to realign product, voice, and experience to better match the changing customer mindset. We quickly addressed these opportunities, making multiple changes this summer spanning people, process, and inventory investments to get back on track and allow us to more quickly respond to changes in the marketplace. Our teams have made shifts across the assortment to provide better balance.
As an example, we're leaning into more cargos and dresses. On top of these product shifts, we are reviewing every aspect of Hollister brand voice and customer journey. Our team customer continues to favor the in-store experience with more than two-thirds of Hollister sales happening in-store in 2022.
During the year, we opened 38 stores, finishing 2022 with 529 stores globally. Towards the end of the year, we introduced our evolved store design in a few locations which continues to open up and brighten the shopping experience while offering improved product placement flexibility. You will continue to see the store play an integral role with Hollister as we move forward and combine the assortment evolution. Our team will have all the pieces in place.
to stabilize the brand and return to growth later this year. For Gilly Hicks in 2022, we evolve the brand positioning and assortment, readyings to move into our free standing stores, a majority of which open in the fourth quarter. In 2023, we are focused on delivering our active lifestyle assortment to the customer across physical and digital touch points. The shift into active words, a key part of the evolution for Gilly Hicks.
Up until recently, Gillie has been waited to intimate and sleep where as it started as a complement to the Hollister brand. We are now broadening categories to get to our target assortment mix between active, lounge, and intimate. Something we'll continue learning more about as we go through the year. Lastly, a quick update on social tours. We've continued to use the brand to push fashion content and Hollister and leverage learnings around social engagement across all brands. In summary, our ambition of focused brand growth will be apparent in 2023. For Abercrombie Brands,
We expected to store resources to digital marketing and store expansion to capitalize on the momentum. For Hollister, the work is underway to optimize the product and brand voice, positioning us for growth in the second half of the year.
and for Gilly Hicks, we'll continue to read results from the Obama-Sortment mix with a trigger strategy in place to allocate additional resources to drive customer acquisition later in the year.
Moving on to our second pillar, executing an enterprise-wide digital revolution. For context, at $1.6 billion in sales, our digital business is approximately 44% of our total sales in 2022. Across brands, our customer journeys are different and ever-evolving, necessitating a robust set of tools and technologies. Our team has been hard at work modernizing our technology foundations and developing our digital revolution.
future organic growth and incremental go-to-market opportunities like wholesale, franchise, and or partnerships.
These projects will take time, but we've designed our deployment schedule to realize value as quickly as possible.
On the customer experience side of our digital revolution, we are improving the experience across the web, mobile apps, and stores. We set up continuous feedback and delivery loop to ensure we are finding and focusing on the highest impact opportunities.
One example we've talked about is Share to Pay, a feature that enables our customers to easily share their digital shopping bag with a family member or friend to complete the purchase. Share to Pay is an example of how our new digital teams are applying customer analytics and agile development to uncover and quickly deliver against customer opportunities.
For 2023, we will continue modernizing our foundation to support our digital revolution. We expect to be largely complete with our foundational data infrastructure efforts and to continue progressing on our ERP transformation while maintaining a relentless pace of digital experience improvements to win and retain customers.
And for our last pillar, operating with financial discipline, it was another year where we needed to select this muscle. With over $250 million inflation hitting us in 2022 compared to 2021, we needed to balance playing offense and defense. An offense.
We opened 59 new stores and accelerated key digital and technology investments. On defense, we managed expenses and inventory tightly. For inventory, our objective was to be approximately flat to 2021 at the end of 2022, and we achieved that goal with inventory down 4% at year-end. We're optimistic we've gotten to the worst of freight costs and supply chain disruptions.
Importantly, each of our brands entered 2023 in a position to chase inventory and we will continue demonstrating agility and managing the cost side of business while balancing the long term investments that enable growth. As we wrap up just 1 more thought on our industry leading team and culture. Well, the past 3 years have been the most challenging I've seen in my 35 years in retail.
The learnings and collaboration we've achieved has made both our company and our associates stronger. I was so proud of our company to be recognized yet again as a best work place in retail by great place to work and fortune. Additionally, we received a perfect score on the Human Rights Campaign's 2022 corporate equality index for the 16th year in a row with designation as one of the best places to work for LGBTQ plus equality. As we say regularly, changes the only constant in retail and our team will continue to balance and react to shifts in the market.
while staying focused on our long-term strategic priorities to drive sustainable, profitable growth in 2023 and beyond. We enter the year, well-prepared, focused and ready to execute across the three pillars of our OES Forward Plan. With that, I'll hand it off to Scott to provide more color on our results and additional details for our 2023 outlook. Thanks, Fran and good morning. I'm also proud of how our teams wrapped up 2022, delivering improved results in both the third and fourth quarters.
I'll start by covering Q4 results on both year on year and sequential comparisons along with the rundown of our full year 2022 performance. I'll then provide some color on our 2023 outlook. For Q4, we delivered net sales of 1.2 billion, up 3% to 2021 on a reported basis, and up 5% on a constant currency basis. This was above the range we provided in early January due to a better than expected finish to the month. ahora kann? ???????
As Fran mentioned, we saw trends improve sequentially at both Abercrombie and Hollister. Net sales at Abercrombie, which includes kids, rose 14% compared to 2021 on a reported basis, and 16% on a constant currency basis. This compares to Abercrombie's Q3 reported in constant currency growth of 10% and 13% respectively. Hollister, which includes Gilly Hicks and Solicitoris, declined 4% or 2% on a constant currency basis.
This compares the holsters Q3 reported in constant currency declines of 12% and 9% respectively. By region net sales increased 9% in the U.S. Internationally we saw a decline of 13% or 6% on a constant currency basis.
By region, a May was down 14% on a reported basis and 7% on a constant currency basis. An APAC was down 21% on a reported basis and 13% on a constant currency basis.
In Emea, our strongest markets continue to be the Middle East and the UK, but the region largely remains soft. In A-PAC, while sales were down to last year in the fourth quarter, we are excited to see the region reopen with the lifting of the zero COVID policy in China. Rose profit rate was 55.7% versus 58.3% last year.
He drivers of the year-by-year change where the adverse impact of exchange rates of 100 basis points and higher product costs of 160 basis points With higher cotton costs and inventory reserves more than offsetting lower freight costs
On a constant currency basis, AUR was up slightly with Abercrombie higher than last year, and Hollister lower than last year is made a strong push to sell through Hollister clearance product. On inventory, we ended the quarter down 4% last year, which was better than our expectation around flat that we have discussed the past couple quarters. On inventory, we ended the quarter down 4% last year, which was better than our expectation around flat that we have discussed the past couple quarters.
Q4 operating expense, excluding other operating income, was $575 million compared to $581 million last year, with lower marketing and incentive-based compensation partially offset by operating cost inflation. Operating income was approximately $92 million compared to $100 million last year. Changes in foreign currency adversely impacted operating income by approximately $18 million.
The tax rate for the quarter was 49.7% at the high end of our expectation, primarily due to our inability to realize a benefit on certain tax losses incurred outside of the US.
Net income-bredated share was 81 cents compared to $1.14 last year. Changes in foreign currency adversely impacted earnings per share by approximately 23 cents.
Turning to full year 2022 results, which I'll cover on an adjusted non-gap basis.
Full year results excluded approximately 14 million of pre-tax acid impairment charges, which adversely impact your results by 20 cents. In 2021, we excluded $12 million pre-tax acid impairment charges, which adversely impact your results by 15 cents.
For the year, net sales were 3.7 billion, flat to 2021, and up 2% on a constant currency basis. For the year, digital sales penetration was 44%.
By brand, Avocroundby delivered 11% growth on a reported basis and 13% growth on a constant currency basis.
Hollister declined 9% or 6% on a constant currency basis. By region, the US grew 4% for the year, while the international business was down 11% on a reported basis, or 4% on a constant currency basis.
Growth profit rate with 56.9% compared to 62.3% in 2021. For the full year, foreign currency adversely impacted growth profit rate by approximately 40 basis points.
For product costs, we saw approximately $200 million or 520 basis points of higher input cost, including approximately $90 million for freight and $110 million for cotton and other raw materials.
While AUR improved over 2021 levels and remains well above 2019, the growth was not enough to offset the higher cost. Operating expense, excluding other operating income, was $2 billion or $54.1% of sales compared to $52.9% of sales in 2021. Compared to 2021, the increase was driven by inflation, digital investments,
and higher digital fulfillment expenses partially offset by lower marketing and incentive-based compensation. Operating income was 107 million or 2.9% of sales compared to 355 million or 9.6% in 2021. The rejection was due primarily by the lower gross profit rate due to higher freight and raw material costs as well as operating expense leverage. Foreign currency further reduced operating income by 30 million dollars compared to 2021.
The effective tax rate for the year was 74.6%. Net income per deluded share was 25 cents compared to $4.35 in 2021. We exited the year in a strong financial position with cash and cash equivalents of 518 million and total liquidity of approximately 866 million. Capital expenditures were 165 million for 2022, with about half spent primarily on stores and the other half on digital and technology. Capital expenditures were 165 million and total liquidity of approximately 867 million. We exited the year in a strong financial position with about 20 million. We exited the year in a strong financial position with 30 million.
For the year, we repurchase a total of 4.8 million shares for approximately $126 million and $8 million of secured notes. On the store fleet, for the year, we opened 59 stores and closed 26, ending the year with 762 stores. As we focus on brand growth, we expect to be in a net store opening position again in 2023, although we expect to open fewer new stores than in 2022. As mentioned in our June investor day, we expect to see only modest changes in growth square footage and occupancy dollars.
I'll finish up with our thoughts on 2023. For the full year, we expect net sales growth in the range of 1-3 percent from 3.7 billion in 2022 with Abercrombie brands leading the growth.
We expect the growth will be tilted toward the back half of the year, driven primarily by the 53rd reporting week and the fourth quarter and net news stores. Geographically we expect the U.S. to continue to outperform international. For the international business, our inventory is in good place, and we are ready to chase as necessary as we see trends improve. As a reminder, our largest countries outside North America are the UK, followed by Germany, China, and France.
We expect a full year operating margin to be in the range of 4 to 5% compared to reported and adjusted operating margin of 2.5% and 2.9% respectively in 2022. In terms of drivers, we expect around 200 basis points from a net benefit and product cost with freight savings partially offset by higher cost and raw material costs. For operating expense at the midpoint of our sales outlook, we expect to see modestly leverage driven by the combination of inflation.
and increased investment related to our always forward plan initiatives, including our retail merchandising ERP upgrade. For the tax rate, we are forecasting a rate in the mid-40s. On inventory, we will continue to manage tightly and work to keep all brands in a position to chase. We see continued opportunity to reduce inventory, especially in the first three quarters of the year, compared to 2022, where we front-loaded inventory due to ongoing supply chain uncertainty.
Regarding capital allocation, we expect capital expenditures of approximately 160 million. Just over half the spend will cover digital and technology, and the remaining will primarily cover stores.
For excess liquidity, we expect to continue to focus on share and debt repurchases pending cash flow, business conditions, and market prices. Entering 2023, we have approximately $232 million remaining on the $500 million share repurchase authorization established in November 2021. For the first quarter, we expect net sales to be approximately flat to the Q1 2022 level of 813.
from the net reduction in freight and raw material cost, partially offset by the impact of inflation, as well as operating expense investments related to the 2025 Always Forward Plan. For the tax rate, we expected to be volatile in Q1 on unexpected low levels of income. We expected incurred tax expense regardless of the level of taxable income or loss. We expected to be volatile in Q1 on unexpected low levels of income or loss.
As Fran mentioned, we remain cautiously optimistic on consumer demand in 2023. While broad inflation is yet to abate, we are pleased with the reductions we have seen in freight and cotton over the past six months. These benefits will work through the income statement on a different cadence. With freight benefits weighted to the first half and moderating in the second half, we expect cotton to be a headwind in the first half and moderate in the second half, netting to a headwind for the full year.
From there, we are funding necessary investments in the customer experience and in the modernization of our system to improve agility and speed while focusing on generating the free cash flow necessary to maintain our strong financial position. With that operator, we are now ready for questions. And thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star 11 on your television.
My first question comes from Dana Telsi from Telsi Advisor Group. Your line is not open. Hi. Good morning, everyone. As you think about the Hollister business and the improvements that you're saying, how do you frame it for 2023, whether stores, whether digital, and how you're thinking about it? And then also Scott, can you talk to it all?
the breakdown of the margin opportunity for 2023 in terms of freight and how you're balancing that, giving your clean inventories with pricing in the environment. Thank you. Hey, Dana, good morning. So, let's talk about Halister for a few minutes. We were very pleased to see the improvement with Halister and the sequential improvement that we saw from the third to the fourth quarter. As you know, we were on a journey with Halister last year. You know, around back to school, the whole teen market took a little bit of a step back at that time.
And what we did was we really dove into say, you know, how much of that was driven by macro and how much of that did we own. We assessed our situation and we made some changes as I mentioned earlier. You know, people, product, we made sure our receipts were back in line for our trend in the back half and we chased into products that were working like cargo and dresses. So the inventories are clean as we now head into 23 where please would be inventory levels are and what's most exciting is that we have chased back in our business. That is a very exciting word, particularly for that, you know, that teen market.
because in 22 with all the constraints on the supply chain, it was much harder for us to chase and really be able to react to what's going on. So we are cross-relse optimistic as we head into 23 as we've discussed, and our expectation is to return to growth in the back half of the year. All right, let me pick up the margin piece. So as we look to 2023, our expectation is an operating margin of 4 to 5%. That's up from 2.9% in 2022. Our path there is we do expect to see about 200 basis points from growth margin expansion, which would come from mainly from the net pickup and freight. We still see cotton as a headwind for next year, but do see a good amount of that freight coming back in in 2023. From there, we do expect a little bit of deleverage on the expense base. Just due to inflation as well as some of the longer term investments we're making in digital and technology. So for the year, again, 4 to 5% on the operating margin line. As we think about, we're announcing that with inventory. Fran hit it for the Hollister brand, but in total, all of our brands are in position to chase right now. That gives us an opportunity on the AUR front as we go into 2023. We're not a...
the next year and then Scott just on stores I know that yet again I think you're going to be a net opener of stores but it sounds like you're actually going to be opening fewer than you were last year but all that said it's only going to be I think a modest change you said in broke square footage and occupancy dollars so could you talk a little bit about how you're going to be really thoughtful around opening stores and still keeping costs and control.
Hey, Cory. Good morning. I'd love to talk about continuing our momentum at A&F. Coming off another strong year for the brand, which is super exciting what we've been able to accomplish in this turnaround. And there are so many exciting things happening and certainly to come. So a great example of that is women's bottoms, our best-year-ever-and-women's bottoms, and that goes way beyond just denim. So there's a whole trend happening in pants, which women are now wearing back to work. They're going back to the office. They're able to use as a transitional outfits to wear then to go out, because we know how social our Avocommy customer tends to be. We also launched a new franchise called YPB, which is our active wear.
We launched that because our customers said to us, you know, we know you can do this well. We'd love to see some act of wear from you and they really responded nicely. So there's just lots of opportunity, our best dress guest franchise. You know, we talked a lot about all the weddings in 2022. There's even more to come for 2023 and they're coming to us for all those special occasions. And to your point, men's is also a second quarter of positive comps for men and we're excited to see that starting to roll as well. So there's just lots of lots of opportunity and heading into the year with nice momentum. Okay, on the store side, yes, net opener in 2022. First time I think in over 10 years or around there. We open 59 close 26. We will slow down the 59 as we go into 2023.
As we look at 2022, there were tons of great malls that we wanted to get back into and we were able to find the right deals with our landlord partners. And they were successful looking at those stores, the productivity on a square footage basis, the new stores versus the old almost double. You know, as we continue to have that opportunity to close some of these bigger legacy stores and open these smaller new format stores. So we like what it does for the brand and we like what it does financially. So we're going to keep that going here in 2023 and beyond. Guess what we'll moderate of this, but we still have great opportunities around the country and really around the world. Great. Thanks so much. Invested luck. Thanks. Great. And thank you. And one moment, our next question. And our next question comes from Paul Elegilitz from City. You line up now open. Hi, Frank. Hi. I've got this is Kelly on for Paul. Thanks for taking your question. In any case, you can, you can talk about brand performance, specifically in the US. And then how are our trends performing coordinate overall, but also by region we've heard from others that maybe.
previous question, hopefully more momentum coming in the future. As we think about Hollister, also made a really good comeback. We had a second quarter low here in the US where it stepped back as that inflation started to rage and we saw that teen space come in in Q2 and that group has really built up.
In Q3 and in Q4 and a lot of that has been driven here in the US. So nice to see you come back and Hollister. As Fran mentioned, we have some work to do in the future and we're very focused on that brand, but happy with the progress we've made today. So I'd like to just follow up on the ANS brand. You sound very excited about the opportunity in 23, but I just wonder if you'd talk more specifically about what's driving the growth. Is it coming from me, you are, is it coming from more from units and then beyond YTB, which you've talked a lot about, which is any other categories to call out for for 23 things. So I'll tell you we just to read a little bit about what we talked about. So we've been focusing on franchises. So we focus on, you know, we are curve love franchise for denim, which has been very successful, which has helped us reach our best every year in denim for ANF women. We launched this YPB franchise, best of guests. Lots of exciting things happening. Our Sloan Pant.
to just talk about two quick things if I can. Can you, on the real estate, are you finding that the market is a little tighter and are you able to still get the deals you want to be in those malls and if not, are you holding back and willing to wait? And then can you just give us a quick update on your loyalty programs?
I'm curious what the engagement looks like and are people signing up and are they engaged in using the perks? Hey, Mark, I think you've heard me say many times, right? As far as stores matter, absolutely. God, I mean, for right location and right economics. And as we've shown over the past several years, yes, we'll hold if we are not getting the deals that we need to make this economically viable for us. That said, we opened some really terrific stores in 2022. We'll be back in some of the best malls. We've walked away from it and now we have all our new prototypes in them and doing nicely. So there's no finish line to real estate for us. We're always out there exploring and understanding what the opportunities are. But yes, quick answer is yes, we will hold. Let's have the right deal. On the loyal programs, we continue to drive these or identify a little customer rate has gone up dramatically over the past few years. So it's great to see customers signing up for this. We can share information back and forth and really leverage this group to kind of help us with product and also on the top line. So we are still signing people up. We refresh these programs each brand over the past 12 months.
of fiscal 23 and I'm just wondering, you know, what's involved in that, you know, it's or, you know, if you're seeing some resistance from the consumer or if you're not as optimistic about Hollister, maybe you could give us an indication of what led to that top line guidance.
And just lastly, I think, Fran, you said that Hollister was really clean, but I wonder how the mockdown levels were and if, you know, the seasonal product clearance was in good shape and had been cleared. Thank you so much. All right, Tana, let's get a roll in. So on Hollister, U.S. trends for Q4, the Hollister U.S. business was around flat for Q4, and that's a really nice improvement off of where we were kind of at. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, first is where we were in Q2 and even in Q3. So it's a really nice progress there. As we think about the Q1 outlook, kind of the sales rates, Q4 and the Q1, you know, we're sitting here today. Q1 is our toughest comp, you know, on a one year basis and a multi-year basis. There's obviously a lot of, you know, inflation that's still happening out there and we haven't really gone full circle on inflation whenever it really...
the Hollister brand in a nice chase position now for spring and beyond just like Abercrombie pitch has been. Did you see any improvement in Europe ? Scott at the Hollister in the fourth quarter or how did that trick out?
Yeah, Psalm, you know, that business has been obviously lagging the US that's been a multi-year trend for us coming out of COVID something that we're very focused on as we're going through this spring season and we do feel that all the changes that we're making that are going to help here in the US will eventually help us in in in May as well as APAC so you know again cautious optimism as we look to the global business for Hollister.
And I think, Fran said that maybe she expects Hollister to inflect this year. Maybe you said second half, I can't remember. But I was just wondering if you thought it may inflect in the US in the first half? Yeah, we've seen some inflection here, obviously, in the fourth quarter. But I think what we're all waiting for is how we lap that Q2 period. Obviously, the whole team space fell off Q2 of last years. We kind of ramped in the back to school. There were a lot of things happening from a macro perspective in the economy with inflation raging, etc.
I think I just wanted to zero in on your cautiously optimistic commentary on consumer demand. Can you just talk about kind of what data points are informing that? And then secondly, disability to have chase back in the business. That's great to hear. But is there any way you can kind of quantify where you're at now versus what's normal?
or what was going on in 2022 just so I have a reference point. Thank you so much. Absolutely. On the consumer demand side, we're always looking at employment levels as well as wage levels. Both of those things remain very strong and that's very helpful for our customer on the discretionary side. When you think about some of this cautious optimism, we don't know what the Fed is going to do here in the U.S. and how that's going to ripple through the economy as we go throughout the rest of the year. And as you watch TV or read the news every day, depending on how the winds blow, it's good or bad. So we'll see. But the real point gets to your number two is the things we can control and the best thing we can do is remain in a chase position.
and that's great for our business. enough.
Thank you. And thank you. And if you would like to ask a question that is star 1-1, again, if you would like to ask the question that is star 1-1, and one moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Marisa.
performance should be thinking about. And then maybe you could talk about AUR trans across each of the brands. And then lastly, on the tax rate, I know you got it for high tax rates for this year, does any top one where that could actually converge or, you know, converge in the long term? That would be very helpful. Thank you. Okay, Mary, so good to chat. Like, grab a couple of these. So let's open the...
help the tax rate. On the sales outlook, there's many paths as we all know there's many scenarios as we go through 2023. We would just expect that Abercrombie would outperform Hollister and likely see the US business outperform the international business. But again we've been talking about this for the last couple of years. Those are the trends we've been seeing and we're just going to assume we're going to keep seeing them until we don't and that's really how we're setting up 2023. Yeah and regarding AUR trends, it's interesting if you take a step back and you think about the last several years of disruption one of the paths....
And thank you. And I am showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Fran for closing remarks. Just want to say thank you all for joining us today and we look forward to speaking to many of you soon.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.