Q4 2022 Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp Earnings Call
Good day, and welcome to the farmer Mac fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings conference call.
All participants will be in listen only mode should you need assistance. Please signal conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note. This event is being recorded.
I'd now like to turn the conference over to Joplin, Nazareth Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings conference call I'm jumping Nazareth director of Investor Relations and finance strategy here.
As we begin please note that the information provided during this call may contain forward looking statements about the company's business strategies and prospects, which are based on management's current expectations and assumptions. These statements are not a guarantee of future performance and are subject to the risks and uncertainties that could cause our acts.
<unk> results to differ materially from those projected please refer to farmer Mac's 2022 annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC earlier today for a full discussion of the company's risk factors.
On today's call. We will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures.
Closures and reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures can be found in the 2022 Form 10-K and earnings release posted on farmer Mac's website farmer Mac Dot com under the financial information portion of the investors section joining us from management. This morning is our president and CEO, Brian Holmes, who will discuss 2022 business.
And financial highlights and strategic objectives, and CFO of par number mesh who will provide greater detail on our financial performance select members of our management team will also be joining us for the question and answer period at this time I'll turn the call over to President and CEO , Brad normal Brian .
Thanks, John Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us.
I'm very pleased to announce that we had a record year for revenue earnings net effective spread and outstanding volume.
And nearly all of our business segments, while maintaining strong credit quality.
Throughout 2022, we continued execution on our strategic initiatives building partnerships with our customers maintaining asset liability management discipline.
Turning to diversify our revenue streams, while maintaining a singular Florida. This on our mission.
More specifically, we concluded the year with 16% year over year growth in net effective spread.
10% growth in core earnings and 10% growth in outstanding business volume where assets under management.
I'm incredibly proud of the contributions of our 158 team members it starts with them and their passion for American agriculture and rural infrastructure.
And they deliver because of their expertise and specialization.
French it's us.
I happened to believes that it is this passion expertise and specialization coupled with our exceptional access to debt and securitization market funding and asset liability management that enables us to deliver consistently strong financial results.
One of our strategic initiatives has been to broaden our business those segments that we report to you in.
And the benefits of that increasing diversification were apparent in our 2020 to your results.
When rapidly rising interest rates had a more immediate impact on our farm <unk> Ranch segment. It had the opposite impact on our wholesale funding our advantaged product.
So we are more comparatively competitive with federal reserve bank alternatives than we were during the pandemic.
Similarly, our rural infrastructure segment showed less interest rate sensitivity and we booked record amounts of telecom and renewable energy project finance loans.
Diversifying our loan portfolio has been a key priority last few years and that diversification is benefiting us through changing market cycles.
In 2022, we provided a gross 9 billion in liquidity and funding capacity to lenders serving rural America.
Collecting net year over year outstanding business volume growth.
$2 $3 billion.
The agricultural finance line of business grew $1 $7 billion last year, which is predominantly driven by growth in the farm and ranch a bad debts securities portfolio.
Loan purchase volumes.
The overall growth in the wholesale financing space continues to reflect many of our institutional counterparties, adding longer term advantaged securities to manage their asset liability maturity profiles given the recent increases in interest rates and the comparative competitiveness a farmer.
Mac advantaged pricing relative to other market.
Federal Reserve bank derived options.
We added a net $880 million and new farm <unk> Ranch aid vantage securities in 2022 compared to $300 million in 2021.
Looking ahead, we believe is especially in this volatile interest rate environment at farmer Mac.
Used to be viewed as a crucial relative value for a refinance it and.
And possibly for incremental borrower.
For a long standing eight vantage counterparties.
To add some additional detail our farm and ranch loan purchase volume growth.
Up 8% year over year was modest compared to prior years as borrowers who are adjusting to higher rate environments and being more opportunistic.
We're optimistic the potential increases in loan purchase opportunities in 2023 will happen given the strong cash position of farmers and ranchers as they head into their 2023 planning and planting seasons.
Our corporate finance segment grew $65 $7 billion to $1 $6 billion.
That's year over year 2022 to 2021.
This is a relatively new business initiatives for farmer Mac.
Parts of loans to larger more complex anchor businesses focused on entities span the food supply chain.
The persistent volatility and uncertainty in the market.
Load deal opportunities in 2022.
With many transactions on pause waiting for signs of market stabilization.
While that growth saw only a modest increase in 2022, primarily due to sizeable payoffs, we were able to purchase approximately $330 million.
Accretive spreads, which supported a very strong increase in revenues for this segment.
However, in the fourth quarter 2022, and so far in the first quarter of 2023, we have seen an increase in deal flow in the market and are starting to build a strong pipeline for this year.
These sales continued to be very accretive from an E S standpoint, and a key component of our diversification strategy.
We expect this segment to have meaningful impacts on our results in future and to enable farmer Mac to continue to strengthen.
Our mission.
2022 was a very strong year for rural infrastructure as the diversification of this line of business is providing significant growth opportunities across numerous key subsegment markets.
During the year, we added $608 million of business, reflecting year over year growth of about 10% in the renewable energy telecommunications and court ruling until these subsectors.
Loan purchase volume in the rural utility sector increased 22% in 2022, primarily due to borrowers normal course capital expenditures.
We're related to maintaining and upgrading the utility infrastructure as well as investments in broadband infrastructure.
Farmer, Mac acquired over $230 million and telecommunication bonds in 2022.
And there is this growing investment in fiber and broadband in rural America, and an increasing recognition of the need for widespread investment in these areas.
We remain committed to increasing investment and to reduce the cost of capital for telecommunication providers and we look forward to providing updates on this new avenue of growth for farmer Mac.
Our renewable energy portfolio had an exceptional year with over 140 million and net growth in solar and wind transactions from a number of counterparties.
Our participation in the few broadly syndicated renewable energy transactions has increased potential counterparties to source transactions from us in future years.
The pipeline remains strong in the near term as we continue to focus on upsizing existing deals and bringing out new renewable energy opportunities.
As I've said on prior calls renewable energy as both an important economic development opportunities for Rural America, and a business opportunity for us.
As you may have seen yesterday afternoon, I'm very pleased to announce that we have successfully closed on our third $300 million approximately 300 million dollar agricultural mortgage backed securitization transaction.
Securitization continues to be a tremendous opportunity for farmer Mac and offers us many long term benefits.
One for example, since since the successful introduction of farm serious program, we've met with customers who have shown interest.
Actual securitization products that help them achieve their return objectives.
While we're still in the early started just a build in the program are returned to the market shows our commitment to being a regulatory issue or the set of securitization products that align with both our borrowers and faster interests.
Developing this capital flow to American Nick cultural producers exemplifies farmer Macs core mission to lower cost for the empower and improved credit availability in all of America.
Also creating a well received new investment opportunity for a leading institutional investors.
The U S. Agricultural economy continues to benefit from strong export demand and elevated commodity prices.
Farmland values reached record highs in many states in 2022, primarily due to record levels of farm income over the last couple of years.
While input costs are expected to remain elevated in 2023.
Limited global annual crops should continue to support commodity prices.
We believe our portfolio is sufficiently balanced withstand the market volatility that could arise should the U S economy move into a recessionary period.
As agriculture, food and infrastructure industries, and not to be directly correlated or positive.
With the general economy.
We believe these sectors are generally well positioned to withstand an economic downturn due to ample consumer demand as well as government support.
Now before turning to a part of I'm very pleased to announce a 16% 15 cent per share increase in our quarterly common stock dividend that'll take us to one dollar and cents per share starting in the first quarter of 2023.
And decided to increase farmer Mac's common stock dividend and maintain our payout target or.
Our board of directors considered our strong capital position and the consistency of and outlook for our earnings all support our business and to exceed our regulatory capital requirements.
This is the 12th consecutive year.
Farmer Mac has increased its quarterly dividend.
Looking ahead, we will strive to continue to be a source of stability for our customers fire remaining adaptive and flexible to meet their needs in this changing environment.
While remaining vigilant about any indications of potential market contraction.
The foundation of our strategy is our strong financial position and proactive management of our balance sheet and funding sources, which.
<unk> says well change in credit departments and enables us to continue to deliver ambition.
More opportunities for us to enhance shareholder value for you.
And with that I'll turn to a partner or a mesh our chief financial officer to discuss our financial results in more detail pardon.
You, Brian and good morning, everyone 2022 was a remarkable year for farmer Mac.
Also strong across the board highlighting a balanced well measured approach excellent credit quality and resiliency throughout market cycles.
Outperformance in fourth quarter 2022 enabled us to finish the year with very strong momentum.
Core earnings were $34 $4 million or $3.16 per share in first quarter 2022.
124, $3 million or $11.42 per share basic 92, reflecting double digit you ought to be a growth.
Driven by record net effective spread of $71 $1 million in fourth quarter and $255 $5 million through yet.
Question on improvement in spread over the course of the year.
A product of the compositional shift in our program assets and generally widespread across the board as we have seen in particular higher pricing on corporate finance loans and advantage volumes.
In some part driven by the higher rate environment.
Another revolving factor that we have mentioned in prior calls.
That has contributed to net effective spread is that over the past few years, we opportunistically raised low cost debt and capital.
This excess capital reduces the need for us to raise more expensive dumb and callable debt in a rising rate environment.
This is expected to continue to create a downward pressure on our non-GAAP funding costs as the short end of the curve continues to increase with fed actions.
And the reinvesting of excess capital generates additional verdun.
Our liability side of the balance sheet remains strong as we continue to benefit from the low cost debt that we raised when rates will vote and this makes us well insulated as rates rise.
The extension of debt has also strengthened our overall liquidity profile we.
We continue to maintain disciplined asset liability management, we carefully analyze the duration and convexity matches to minimize our interest rate risk as rates rise or Ed.
Our forward looking at funding strategies, coupled with a prudent approach to hedging have allowed us to maintain and enhance profitability.
Vitamin version in the yoga.
Turning to operating expenses.
Operating expenses increased by 11% year over year due to increased head count increased stock compensation and increased spending on software licenses and information technology, along with consultants to support growth and strategic initiatives.
Efficiency ratio or operating efficiency ratio was 28, 5% at year end and this is better than a strategic plan target of 30%.
We expect overall operating expenses to increase at a pace above historical averages due to investments that are needed to support core infrastructure and additional headcount to develop critical capabilities.
Especially pleased without efficiency ratio.
And our cost containment strategy, given the inflationary headwinds that all companies are experiencing and that are impacting the market as opposed.
As we said previously we will continue to closely monitor our efficiency ratio and we are committed to holding the run rate efficiency ratio at 30% Oh look.
However, as we make decisions to invest in infrastructure and funding platforms and scale for further growth. We may see some temporary increases about the 30% level.
On this note we are on the cusp of making a significant decision to invest in our treasury and other infrastructure platforms to allow us to scale the balance sheet and manage risk as our lines of businesses diversified.
We also anticipate other investments to modernize our lending and our origination platforms in the near term.
Our credit profile continues to be strong despite the economic headwinds.
90 day delinquencies were $44 million, a 17 basis points, if I die portfolio compared to $47 million in the same period last year.
As of December 31st 2022.
The allowance for losses was <unk>.
$17 $2 million, which reflects an 800000 provision compared to get around 2021, and this was primarily due to the deterioration of the single agricultural storage and processing.
Turning to capital now.
Farmer Mac's, one $3 billion of core capital as of December 31st 2022 exceeded our statutory requirement by $517 million or 64%.
Core capital increased from year end 2021, primarily due to an increase in retained earnings of tier one capital ratio improved to 14, 9% as of December 31st 2022 from 14, 8% as of year end 2021, and this was largely due to strong earnings results adapter for lease.
That'd be obtained through our second securitization transaction and these factors were partially offset by growth in program assets maintaining.
Maintaining consistent credit standards and strong level of capital is a fundamental part of our long term strategy to support continued growth deliver little cost and ensure the steady execution of our business model.
We successfully closed as Brad noted our third farm C D securitization transaction yesterday.
That transaction was structured around two tranches.
Senior guarantee tranche and a subordinated I'm guaranteed crunch, both of which were very well received by the market. Despite a volatile environment infrastructure products.
The structure and there was a prior deal and we're encouraged by the demand for agricultural backed securitized product opportunities as these align very well with our mission and foster continued success.
The success of this transaction further demonstrates farmer mac's capability to diversify long term funding sources and to develop a conduit that might generate additional revenues, but that can also serve as a source of capital to the agricultural sector.
Most importantly, this keep close these highly central to our mission and we expect to return to the market regularly but similar securitized product as we have committed to making this a more programmatic effort in the future to continue to build liquidity for our investors.
These products also investors a new asset class that in a volatile rate environment is not as correlated as other mortgage backed securities given the nature of prepayment behavior, that's associated with agricultural mortgages.
Brad mentioned earlier, we're very pleased to announce a 15 cent increase in our quarterly common stock dividend, bringing us to a total of $1.10 per share for the first quarter of 2023, we believe that our strong earnings and consistent capital positions support this dividend increase.
So in summary, our entire team delivered exceptional quarterly results well, so silly several key strategic objectives.
Also delivered on our key metrics that we report to you on each call. We had record core earnings and continued strong credit performance and all of this resulted in a 16% return on equity and an efficiency ratio of 28, 5% exceeding our previously stated target ratios as we look ahead to 2023, what do you mean well.
They should and more optimistic than ever to deliver on our long term strategic plan objectives, and with that Brad I'll turn it back to you.
Thanks for BARDA.
Well in summary, we're extremely proud of our financial results in 2022, and the progress we've made on our multi year strategic plan.
Our efforts to further diversify our loan portfolio by customer geography and loan type.
Working.
We believe that this drives incremental growth and profitability.
Our disciplined asset liability management as a competitive advantage as we navigate the ongoing uncertainty in these markets.
And our singular focus on fulfilling our mission efficiently an innovative play is.
As a result of steady forward rate of growth in our business through different agricultural economic cycles.
This is how we believe we can continue to differentiate ourselves and deliver value to our customers and borrowers and investors.
Now operator, I'd like to see if we have any questions from anyone on the line today.
We will now begin the question and answer session to ask a question you May Press Star then one on your Touchtone phone.
If youre using a speakerphone please pick up your handset before pressing the keys to withdraw your question. Please press Star then two.
At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster.
Our first question comes from Bill Ryan from Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.
And thanks for taking my questions.
First kind of starting off on the micro level, obviously in the last several quarters, you've had a nice increase in the net net.
Net effective spread meaning the margin.
And on the conference call you kind of implied that there's been some pricing increases, but that things may be a little bit wider as well based on the funding cost, but could you kind of talk about your outlook for the net effective spread going forward on the business lines. Thank.
Thank you.
Yeah, certainly and I'm going to ask both apart and sacked away in because our asset liability management in this interest rate environment.
It's been a contributor but also and you can see this reflected in how we report out our segment third line of business segments.
It's the benefits of diversification show up both in the topline growth as well as the bottomline growth because.
Some of these lines of business that have had disproportional increases over the last year or accretive in terms of net effective spread so why don't I first ask Zack elaborate a little bit on the lines of business and the spread there and then a partner to kind of round it out with the.
Asset liability management part of the story.
Yeah happy to Brad and Great question Bill.
First thing I want to reiterate is what Brad said in terms of our diversified business model. If you look at the growth. We had you know across our two lines of businesses.
Came from renewable energy telecommunications and as you can see in our.
Press release, the Eagles on those new areas of growth are substantially higher than some of our existing businesses business lines, which is really attributed to that accretion net effective spread.
In addition, you highlighted some AR growth.
Having corporate accidents.
Again, when we're focusing on agribusiness and supply chain transactions generally have more accretive net effective spread been historically our foundation lines of business. So the composition of the new areas of growth are really leading to them on the business line at higher pricing and higher net effective spread and a comment I want to make is really on her.
Advantage.
Oh I've been really that's that's heavily market driven so when you work with some of our investment grade counterparties, especially over the last year with significant volatility in that market back opt out overall credit spreads in the market.
I speak for all the value player, where you're able to take some advantage of the higher spreads in the market.
We put them on a significant amount of volume of advantaged space. So in summary, a lot of new diversification of our lines of business plus the dynamics in some of our existing.
Products led to.
The significant growth we had on the asset side.
Yeah, and just just to weigh in on the net.
<unk> spread as it relates to.
Oh more beneficial funding costs, you know I think one thing we continue to be treated.
Hum.
Net effective spreads so we minimize the volatility and we don't do that.
By making sure that we are paring off our office with prudent liability management strategy one of the phenomenon and I think we've emphasized this on the calls.
Our quarterly calls as well as on this one is just the fact that as a nominal rate environment has continued to move up some of the decisions. We've made to extend our funding as well as some of the excess capital that has certainly contributed to lowering our funding costs in aggregate because of that.
That's really reinvest in offsets.
And the nominal rate environment that could come with trying to raise capital or funding in this particular environment now that said in your question might be well what do you do if rates were to trend back down well. This is where our asset liability management really comes into play we actually offset some of the gains by making sure that we're hedging some of that downside.
EBIT through extending or coming out of some of the excess capital that would be half so that would be locked in some of those higher rates. If you will and then the other aspect I'd be really engaging as active derivatives.
And then we also see resist callable bonds issue callable bonds.
That can then reprice down if rates were to go down so in other words. This is a very very dynamic process.
Through this in partnership with the business development team as we understand what's coming through the pipeline and what we haven't done the funding cost and that's why you see this real consistency within our present, we've always answered do somewhere between 90 to 100 basis points, but that slight tick up above the 100 basis points I'll just note them has to do.
Some fox with all the right things.
Okay. Thanks for the detailed response on that and then kind of moving up to a macro level.
I know Congress is somewhat distracted and that's probably a generous word right now but.
Just in relation to the farmer Mac is there any update on that I know, it's I believe it's up for renewal later this year and then kind of from a macro level what would you like to see incorporated into the bill that might enhance your business opportunities.
Yeah, you're absolutely correct and for the benefit of anyone. Following this you know the farm Bill is.
Something that has to be renewed every five years. It's it's the only regularly scheduled piece of it.
Legislation in Washington, having said that you know there can be.
Continuation so it's possible that.
Action on it could be delayed into 2024, which bill we think it is a possibility having said that we're very very actively engaged with key stakeholders on the hill.
With other farm credit institutions.
Other financial institutions.
So from our standpoint, what's most important to US is that what is in the farm Bill.
It's a continuation of what's been the farm Bill that is good for American.
Cultural predictors.
As an example crop insurance is a.
Absolutely.
And you know, we don't we want to make sure.
That that is one example is preserved for us there may be a few improvements.
Or changes on the margin are we're not going to get into a discussion of those specifics because right now the.
Discussions that we're having with other financial institutions other farm credit institutions stakeholders on the hill, that's very dynamic and ultimately it will come down to not only what does farmer Mac I want but what are the other players in the space, what and is there an opportunity to find a good call.
<unk> that ultimately is good for American producers and for Rural America. That's that's what our whole focus is.
Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.
Our next question comes from Gary Gordon.
Private Investor. Please go ahead.
The questions a part of you mentioned that you are considering some expansion of the treasury function you just gave a like.
Our headline maybe you could expand on that and describe what the benefit is for our shareholders.
Yeah, I'd be happy to Gary. So you know when I was I'm talking about the treasury function I'm at the crusher infrastructure. So you know all of the platform end to end that support our funding activities, our hedging activities as long as the cash management I think this is something that may not be completely apart.
You know, we transact a lot of cash we settled cash to the extent you know that.
You might see a very large institutions do a almost half a trillion of cash is actually settled on average.
And we really need to make sure that we are upgrading a lot of the systems. I mean, there are a lot of bad actors out there and we've got to make sure that all infrastructure remains pretty a pretty updated the other aspect of course is offensive we wanted to make sure that as we continue to diversify our lines of business.
Our funding capabilities from an infrastructure standpoint, and our reporting systems in our hedging activities are also moving in lock step with us. So that we can scale and grow so it's a good time for us to make those technology investments. So really Gary you know boiling it all down this comes down to a fairly substantial at least for farmer Mac a fairly substantial.
Our investment in technology that will make over a multiyear period. So this will be a two to three our implementation cycle and really we're looking and evaluating a few different options in terms of beautiful we might bring on to help us as a partner to really execute on some more to come on that but as I said.
On the cusp of making that decision and it will generate some a.
Temporary surge in our operating expenses at least over the next 12 to 24 months, you'll definitely see that.
Okay. Thanks also I it sounds like a there was a a charge off this quarter on a storage facility. You said, maybe you could describe that a little.
So there really wasn't a charge offs, let's say it was you know I would say that it was it was really just an increase in allowance stuck with.
That's really related to one particular borrower that's we're continuing to monitor.
It happened.
Okay, So no charge offs.
Okay. Lastly, you Brad mentioned about the record farm, Oh land values and a very strong and I think I said record farmer incomes, how does that play out.
Ultimately to our growth and our agricultural debt.
Yeah.
Yeah, Gary it's it's a very interesting question because on one hand record farm income tends to increase our net liquidity.
Across Rural America, what the patterns that we have seen is that.
Many farmers will replace equipment upgrade equipment make additional capital investment.
Before paying down debt.
So our mountain of Prepays actually slowed in the back half of 2022.
But very recently, it's picked up just a little bit we're trying to understand if that's because of that increased liquidity in rural America or are there other factors at work but.
There's no question that there are.
Quite a large universe of.
Parties interested in investing in American agricultural productive real estate.
And so the supply demand equation for farmland is very.
Very favorable to sellers and you know one of the reasons that there is so much interest is because if you think about farmland is on kind of a 50 year investment horizon.
There are a lot of reasons to feel extremely bullish about American.
American agriculture in the long run you know we have a.
Very good climate, we have the best transportation systems best body of law, that's financial institutions, we have a reasonable government framework for supporting agriculture. It all leads up to.
Many investors to conclude that.
American agricultural farmland represents a very very good long term investment. So yes farmland is subject to valuations that are a function of our near term cash flows net cash flows the net income, but there's also this longer term component so.
We see continuing support for values for American farmland.
And what it means for US is that we think actually 2023 will be at a pretty steady year for our farm and ranch a program, you know, which taper down a bit with interest rates running up during the back half of 'twenty, two but as I commented that we're optimistic that it'll be stable too.
Increasing as more farmers start making more capital investment in 2023, So I don't know if you'd like to add any additional color to that.
Okay.
Going forward it really yeah.
No I didn't give you the biggest impact going forward is the increase in interest rates and how that will impact the farmer producer wanted to take on more debt in the medium term, but to Brian as Brad said, the supply demand dynamics and.
The limited availability of land really provides an opportunity for.
Farmers to take advantage of potentially medium term or shorter term debt in 2023 ads as they manage the rate environment.
Okay. Thanks, a lot.
The next question comes from Brendan Mccarthy from Sidoti. Please go ahead.
Great. Thank you I was wondering if you could talk about the the demand dynamics within the renewable space I imagine, it's pretty diverse considering you know from an ESG perspective.
So I was just kind of wondering if you could talk about.
The buying opportunities with those bonds.
Yeah certainly.
Project financing for renewable energy projects is primarily done at the inception of the project. Most project financing is structured so that amortize over the life of the investment usually over 15 2025 years.
So you know there's not a lot of refinancing going on there is primarily new projects and what is driving new renewable energy projects, including solar and wind in rural markets, which is our focus.
Is the fact that.
The price.
Of the capital investment the cost of the capital investment for solar and wind projects has plummeted.
Plummeted to the point, where on a straight kilowatt hour to kilowatt hour basis, it's very competitive with thermal sources of energy and so there are in addition to that there are tail wins for example from the inflation reduction act and others encourage more renewable energy, but the fundamentals the economics.
Pretty well stand on their own so we.
You know acknowledging what's been going on over the last 10 years.
Continual trend and reduction of the cost of these sources of energy and the fact that this capital investment is being made in rural markets. Many times on leased or purchase land agricultural land.
In our rural communities, all part of our mission of supporting the economic development and economic.
Opportunities are.
America makes perfect sense for us to do this as well as the credit risk profile and our funding requirements for these long term amortizing projects.
So yes to your point there is no.
You mentioned ESG, but most importantly, its economics and inflation reduction act that are driving what we think will be an increase in investment opportunity lending opportunity.
For a renewable energy project finance and.
We've committed some additional resources some additional people.
To further develop that opportunity for us in 2023. So I think we mentioned earlier that we are quite often optimistic that we can increase or our growth rate and our overall level of financing activity our purchase loans for project.
Answering for renewable energy projects.
Great. Thank you and then a separate question.
Farm values on the on an uptrend.
What's your what's your outlook in that space I think you know what when do you expect to see higher interest rates really.
Maybe weigh on that outlook.
Well I think you know there has.
Higher interest rates have.
Moderate around that.
That's somewhat you know, there's oh interesting mix amongst our purchasers of farmland between individual farmers, who maybe are eyeing and adjacent farm.
Where it's viewed as a 50 or 100, your multi generational investment opportunity.
And then more institutional investors.
Who maybe look at it much more like a traditional cap rate basis.
But there's enough continued interest that we see continuing support for all land prices, even with rising interest rates and so we do not contemplate in any of our forecasts.
Forecast right now that there would be a real.
Drop in and land values.
There could be some flatness, but overall, we think that it will continue to be.
B reflect moderate growth over the next couple of years.
Great. Thank you.
Okay.
Our next question comes from Deforest Hinman from a private Investor. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks.
Couple of questions and I have some comments to just a first quick one how do you guys calculate your return on equity currently look what was the return on equity for 2022.
Yeah sure you know the way we calculate it is just we look at our regulatory capital, which is about a $1 3 billion in that sense to be hum.
Total of what hits, our tier one capital ratio and that goes into the denominator.
And then in the numerator, we actually strip out I've got funding costs. So we don't really account for anything basketball from fluctuations in derivatives and hedging activities.
We really just look at our core earnings. So that's that's really how I get to our return on equity or return on regulatory capital.
So it's really just a core earnings divided by our total regulatory capital.
And then if we want to look at it over a common equity that we we just strip out the effect of.
Anything that's related to preferred or other sources of capital as we look at it purely on.
Just a just a piece of common equity.
And once that final number.
So for 2022 we ended up 16% and you know we have a target.
When we tried to really cover anyway.
14% to 15% range and you know, we really try to manage that in conjunction with our net effective spread which we I think that we try to manage that anywhere between 90 to 100 basis points. So that's really our topline revenue.
Couple that with our efficiency ratio. So those are the three key metrics that we put the simplicity.
That should do efficiency when shipping under 30%.
All of this first class and at a certain piece then we should hit that overall metric.
Okay. So having said that this is more of a comment barfoot, so fantastic job everybody I mean, just.
No really great performance over the last few years, a phenomenal dividend growth rate really attractive Roe.
I think youre doing something in the financial space a lot of other people can't even touch.
You also have G C C have funding privilege.
Uh huh.
And you and you're managing your spreads in your underwriting has been incredibly strong.
It just seems like your share prices is far too low and don't get any respect for what youre doing so I would say keep up the.
The good work and this is for the sell side analysts on the call are if they go back in time, the GSC valuations preclinical crisis were far in excess of where you are.
Share prices is currently value that so.
I would say you're doing a great job keep up the good work our question now is.
Can you give us a little bit more color on securitization are you announce that.
Before the call.
Can you talk about you know how many people were buying that securitization versus some of the previous.
Securitizations are we seeing a diversification among those buyers in terms of our the insurance companies.
Our bond funds who's buying and then was that a deal oversubscribed and then I have some additional questions as well.
Yeah divorce, all I'll, let the part of get into that.
The securitization.
Our buyers are which is again, a very very positive story, but going back to your first point I mean, we we completely agree.
Couple of follow on point.
You know our performance is remarkably consistent challenge anyone.
Looking at a more consistent performance, both internal growth and absolute levels of earnings that you know 15, 16%. After tax ROE are you can look at it over a many year period and see very little fluctuation.
So and in the comparison to ease pre financial that pandemic I I think it's an interesting one but I would note that you know there were some behavior some actions with other gst's before the financial a pandemic or the financial crisis that really got them a lot of trouble and at farmer Mac.
We have been remarkably are free of any political pressure.
To do anything other than just doing what we have been doing in terms of fulfilling our mission and maintaining very very sound and safe.
Practices and fulfilling that mission. So I would argue that you know the consistency and the stability.
It really is without peer without comparison, but with that let me turn to a partner to talk a bit about the market for these securitizations and one one point, though before I I do divorced from that is that if you look at the period prior to our announcement on our three six.
Iridization.
That was the time when investors more different types of investors were taking Barbara look.
Farmer Mac from a C class stock standpoint, as well and so we believe that this.
That is something that has increased our general exposure.
To a larger group of investors, but without a partner.
Yeah no. Thank you first I want to Echo Brad So you're very kind comments are very very proud of all of our results just on <unk>.
Your question regarding securitization and the investors I think you had a sort of a two part question one with <unk> just around the the.
The type and diversity of investors and I'll, just say to that.
You know just a few data points. Obviously the countries you are any specific investors, but I'll just give you a few points.
Robyn.
A sudden new investors into the program.
We had a number of investors who are consistent.
Buyers across all trade deals.
And he's also a relative to the previous issuances are increasing overall investors count on the book.
So just from a breadth and depth, we've increased our investor count suddenly oversubscribed as well in both tranches.
I see.
Just anecdotally as well E tranche, despite a lot of the volatility in the market I'm, a little bit more of a return to risk on sentiment with regard to credit a b tranche investors really did not need any selling on the name.
Brad noted certainly it gives us broader exposure without the company, but the first two deals. We've really spent a lot of time talking about pharma back I mean, I think it's been brought to me we did sell.
17, or 18 calls over a three day period this time.
Did not need to sell the company at all a lot of it came down to the front of the loyalty of the thing with the transaction itself reason I mentioned that is it just starts to highlight just the programmatic nature of these deals but also the familiarity of investors with whom we are a collateral.
The company overall, so and then I think there was a second aspect of your question, which is how often one of the constraining factors, obviously market conditions as well as pipeline I'm.
But you know we've actually committed to making this a more programmatic is a set of issuances. So we do hope to return to the market again at some point this year.
Okay. That's helpful. And then I just wanted to help people understand this opportunity within the renewable space because I found this very intriguing when you started talking about it in the past in.
There's a public company out there, it's called Hannon Armstrong and they have some.
Our lending programs that appear to be into the renewable space and I believe they they they structure their deals where they're doing the lending, but they also want to see.
A long term power purchase arrangement.
And they have their slide deck available and they show that they're lending money in 2022 at a rate of seven 5% in their funding costs were four 3% so.
The first question is is this the type of product, we're trying to lend on within the renewable space.
And then how to our our our metrics look versus something like they've laid out because if they're saying they're lending money at seven 5% and in their borrowing at four 3% and in there and they are generating attractive returns and they're growing their.
Renewable energy lending portfolio. It would seem this is my very simplistic view that you would have an extreme funding advantage.
And your cost of lending would be significantly.
Lower and you know this 200, some odd million renewable loan book that you have currently should be able to grow.
The nominal rate, so I'm going to pause and hopefully we can get some more color here.
Be happy too and you know I spent in my 40, plus year career, I've gone back and forth between agriculture, and an electric power and so I've got a lot of familiarity with with this and in fact, I I know Hannon Armstrong and no one respect Jeff uncles, a great deal Susan Dickies was.
Running those programs.
No.
These are people, who are very very capable and have and made a very good.
Good niche for themselves so.
So not nothing but respect.
Where we're playing as it is quite.
Similar to that that part of Hannon Armstrong business.
But it's also traditional project financing for our renewable energy projects that over the years has been dominated by Japanese and European banks operating in the United States.
U S banks, just haven't done that much of this and part of it is because of our funding and that's why we think that we can carve out a very very nice business, both on secondaries with the large Japanese and European players.
And also on primaries originated.
By other seller servicers and kind of the mid market part of it where we can operate nationally but.
But more efficiently than than the relatively few number of midmarket players.
So going to your question about credit metrics.
This is a pretty tried and.
And proven path in project finance for renewable energy projects, if you want to dig into an abundance of of our underwriting history as well as a guideline for Moody's and S&P, that's right where farmer Mac is use our projects where there is a long term underlying.
Power purchase agreement.
Where the debt is.
Typically amortizing.
Long term debt over a power purchase agreement, sometimes theres, a balloon, but oftentimes it's fully amortizing olbrich, where there are our debt service coverage ratios typically in the one to five to one four range, where they're sculpted amortization given the seasonality of the cash flows coming from solar wind projects, where their six month.
That surface reserves are very very tried and proven underwriting metrics and that's what we're doing at farmer Mac.
You know this typically as a project finance credit that will write out it kind of a triple b minus double b plus sort of equivalent again exactly where farmer Mac is so we are doing something where there's been a lot of market experience and discipline developed over the years and because as you point out.
Our funding advantages. This is something that we think is a natural for us now in terms of spread.
Taking your citation of tenant.
Hannon Armstrong at seven doesn't have funding a four and a half it's probably a little bit different for us given the space that we're playing in but I think when you look at our segment reporting you can get an idea.
Our spreads on the the the.
Coupons on these loans might be in the neighborhood of comparable drummed treasuries plus two to 300 occasionally a little bit more.
And you can back out of our cost of funds from that and kind of get to anticipated on.
And that spread but to <unk> prior point.
You know I think we would emphasize that this is yet another segment.
Segment that is accretive to our overall returns at farmer Mac.
Okay, and then maybe just the growth piece I mean, you know you're steering the ship here or is this you know a multibillion dollar portfolio exposure in a couple of years I mean, where should we expect this to go.
Yeah, I think we highlighted that we put out on a percentage basis, we put on a large amount in 2022 with committed more resources to this in 2023.
So we would hope that in 2023 2024.
It might be a mid nine figures sort of volume number.
Looking a few years out it very easily could get to that kind of 10 figure number.
I think we have stated on prior calls that this is market, whereas the market that's available to us might be in the neighborhood of $8 billion to $10 billion a year you know for us to achieve.
A 10% market share over some years it doesn't seem like an unreasonable goal.
Okay. That's incredibly helpful and I hope everyone listened closely to what you just said and then the last question would just be a two part what's the current employee head count and what's the planned head count additions in two.
2023, Thank you for all the answers.
Sure. We finished the year with I think it's a 158 employees since the beginning of the year. We may have had to do with you.
You know, we actually I think on a full budget basis for 2022 had 170, 170 and change or a year and we had a little bit more attrition, which is my corporate standards extremely still very low we also win.
Interesting volatility sat in in the second quarter of 2022, we took a go slow approach on some some hires.
So I think we ended the year a little bit below what we.
And for 2023, or we just you know through our board meeting went through our budgeting process and I think you know over the year, we might add about a 10% head count to where we are today.
Alright, thank you.
This concludes our question and answer session I would like to turn the conference back over to Brad Norte Holmes for any closing remarks.
Good well. Thank you all very much for participating and that's I hope that we have been able to convey to you or.
Real delight with our 2022 performance as well.
Why we remain so optimistic about the future of farmer Mac.
We say it over and over again, but the principles that we use the discipline that we use for asset liability management. The focus that we have on rural America. In these in these market segments and sub segments you know it is.
It's what we do and what we're very very committed to do and because of that we've become very good at doing it.
And.
That's why we're very optimistic about the future divorce raise some very good points about you know the fundamentals and why we are.
Our optimistic and should be optimistic and again, we hope we've been able to communicate that to you today.
I just want to conclude by again, saying just how incredibly proud I am of the 158.
Employs the farmer Mac and their commitment to our mission.
Their extreme expertise and specialization and how that contributes to these great results and.
We look forward to speaking with you again very soon in the meantime, if you have any follow up questions. Please reach out to joppa.
And with that we wish you a very good day. Thank you.
Conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation you may now disconnect.
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