Q4 2022 Angel Oak Mortgage Inc Earnings Call
Speaker 1: The.
Speaker 2: Greetings and welcome to the Angel Oak Mortgage Fourth Quarter Earnings Call.
Speaker 2: At this time, O participants are in the listen and the mode.
Speaker 2: A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation.
Speaker 2: If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star and then zero on your telephone keypad.
Speaker 2: As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
Speaker 2: It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Randy Christman, Chief Marketing Officer. Thank you and you may be seated.
Speaker 3: Good morning. Thank you for joining us today for Angelic Mortgage REIT's fourth quarter and full year 2022 Earnings Conference call.
Speaker 3: This morning we filed our press release detailing these results, which is available in the investors section on our website at www.angeloakreet.com.
Speaker 3: As a reminder, remarks made on today's conference call may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed today.
Speaker 3: statements in light of new information or future events.
Speaker 3: For a more detailed discussion of the factors that may affect the company's results, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings. During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures.
Speaker 3: More information about these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are contained in our earnings release and SEC filings.
Speaker 3: This morning's conference call is hosted by Angelok Mortgage Reeds, Chief Executive Officer Shrini Prabhu, Chief Financial Officer Brandon Pilsen, and Angelok Capital's Co-CIO, Namit Sinha.
Speaker 3: Management will make some prepared comments after which we will open up the call to your questions. Additionally, we recommend reviewing our earnings supplement posted on our website at www.angeloakreet.com. Now I will turn it over to the call of the screening.
Speaker 4: Thank you, Randy, and thank you everyone for joining us today.
Speaker 4: As you all know, 2022 was a very challenging year as we battled rising inflation, heightened market volatility, and spread widening across most asset classes.
Speaker 4: The Fed approved an unprecedented seven increases to the Fed funds rate over the course of the year beginning in March.
Speaker 4: These increases took the benchmark interest rate from 0.25% as of December 31, 2021 to 4.75% as of December 31, 2022.
Speaker 4: marking its highest level in 15 years.
Speaker 4: Mortgage rates rose in kind, more than doubling and peaking about 7% in October .
Speaker 4: At the same time, non-QM mortgages approached 9%.
Speaker 4: Additionally, the securitization markets were extremely challenging, especially in the second half of the year.
Speaker 5: However...
Speaker 4: As we mentioned in our last earnings call,
Speaker 4: We commenced a strategic plan in the fourth quarter to reduce warehouse financing risk and increase liquidity.
Speaker 4: Over the last several months, we have made tremendous progress interviewing three key accomplishments.
Speaker 4: we have made tremendous progress, including three key accomplishments. First,
Speaker 4: In November , we sold residential mortgage loans.
Speaker 4: with gross weighted coupon of approximately 4.5%.
Speaker 4: reducing financing risk and releasing incremental liquidity.
Speaker 4: This was a calculated decision and we found that the price that we received was commensurate with a lack of liquidity in the securitization markets at that time.
Speaker 4: Second.
Speaker 4: In December and early January , we converted approximately 286 million of mark-to-market debt.
Speaker 4: from non-mark to market financing for continually performing loans.
Speaker 4: Order releasing financing risk.
Speaker 4: This facility was with one of her existing large bank counterparties.
Speaker 4: which also speaks to our strong partnerships with global banks.
Speaker 4: Finally, we participated in an AOMT 2023-1 Securitization subsequent to UN.
Speaker 4: This was the first Angelok securitization in which we participated alongside other Angelok NTD sensor initial public offering.
Speaker 4: We retain our pro-runner share of bonds and the proceeds from the deal.
Speaker 4: As a result of this accomplishment, as of today,
Speaker 4: We have reduced our whole loan warehouse debt by over 50%.
Speaker 4: and mark the market percentage of total warehouse debt by over 60%.
Speaker 4: since the end of Q3 2022.
Speaker 4: Additionally, it is important to note that we have not taken on any corporate debt or preferred equity.
Speaker 4: and that we own the call rights to all our deals, which gives us tremendous flexibility in the future. The goal of this strategy was not only to reduce risk and create liquidity, but to also restart our growth engine. And to that end,
Speaker 4: We intend to resume purchases of newly originated loans at market interest rates.
Speaker 4: With respect to the current mortgage landscape, there are a couple of dynamics that I would like to reiterate.
Speaker 5: Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker 4: There remains a meaningful shortage in supply of quality housing across the country.
Speaker 4: While mortgage rate increases have slowed down demand for home purchases,
Speaker 4: This underlying constraint should help support a baseline level of mortgage activity.
Speaker 4: Second.
Speaker 4: Credit performance remains strong, delinquencies remain low, foreclosures are exceedingly rare, and loss severity are near zero.
Speaker 4: Additionally, there has been a significant home price appreciation since many of these loans were originated, lowering LTVs and limiting losses in the rare event of default.
Speaker 4: Even if we factor in a slight to moderate decrease in home prices this year, we still expect meaningful growth versus
Speaker 4: where loans were originated.
Speaker 6: Finally!
Speaker 4: The volatility of this past year has resulted in even higher barriers to entry for the non-QM mortgage origination business. android.com.au
Speaker 4: This reinforces the competitive advantages of our relationship with Angel Oak's well-established and streamlined non-QM origination platform.
Speaker 4: Over the coming quarters, we plan to rotate our portfolio into higher coupon mortgage loans
Speaker 4: and other high-yielding mortgage assets.
Speaker 4: and sustain a methodical securitization process.
Speaker 4: all while continuing to stress liquidity management and protect the balance sheet.
Speaker 4: With that, I'll turn it over to Brandon.
Speaker 7: Thank you, Shrini. First, I would like to talk through the details of our financial results and then provide some additional context around our current position and where we're headed. We are
Speaker 7: For the fourth quarter of 2022, we had a gap net loss of $8.8 million, or 36 cents per share.
Speaker 7: The loss was driven by the November loan sale which drove roughly $19 million of incremental loss or 77 cents per share
Speaker 7: Distributable earnings were negative $61.5 million or a loss of $2.50 per share. The November loan sale contributed approximately $63 million of realized loss or $2.56 per share in distributed earnings.
Speaker 7: The loan sold carried an unrealized loss of approximately $44 million as of the end of Q3, all of which were realized upon the sale in addition to the $19 million incremental loss.
Speaker 7: Interest income for the quarter was $28.4 million and net interest margin was $7.4 million, which compressed due to higher variable borrowing costs.
Speaker 7: Our operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $4.3 million, representing a decrease of over $7 million from Q3.
Speaker 7: Excluding securitization and severance expenses, operating expenses were $2 million lower than Q3, which was approximately $1 million lower than Q2, demonstrating continued progress in scaling our operations.
Speaker 7: Now digging into our balance sheet, as of December 31st we had $29.3 million of cash. Our recourse debt to equity ratio decreased to 2.9 times versus 3.7 times at the end of the third quarter. We have residential whole loans at a fair value of $771 million financed with $640 million of warehouse debt. For more information, visit www.fema.gov
Speaker 7: $1 billion of residential mortgage loans and securitization trusts, and $1.1 billion of assets, including $62 million in retained AOMT securities from the pre-IPO securitizations.
Speaker 7: We finished the year with undrawn loan financing capacity of $573 million, and as of today,
Speaker 7: Our capacity is approximately $767 million. This difference is driven by our participation in January's AONT.
Speaker 7: 2023-1 Securitization, which released approximately $190 million of mark-to-market warehouse debt.
Speaker 7: As of today, we have approximately $440 million of warehouse debt.
Speaker 7: only 155 million of which is subject to mark-to-market risk.
Speaker 7: We were pleased to reenter the securitization market in January of this year. The AONT 2023-1 securitization was an approximately $580.5 million securitization and we contributed approximately $241 million scheduled principal balance of loans.
Speaker 7: Additionally, we retained bonds with base value of $26.6 million and a fair value of $21.8 million while releasing $15.9 million in cash.
Speaker 7: We expect these retained bonds to yield between 10 and 15 percent.
Speaker 7: Gap Book Value per Share declined 10.7% to $9.49 as of December 31, 2022.
Speaker 7: down from $10.63 as of September 30, 2022. This includes a 76-cent impact from the November loan sale, as well as the impact of our 32-cent per share common dividend paid in November . Excluding these impacts, gap book value was relatively flat for the quarter.
Speaker 7: Economic book value, which fair values all non-recourse securitization obligations, was $13.11 per share as of December 31, 2022, up 1.3% from $12.94 per share as of September 30, 2022. The fair value of the bonds underlying our securitization obligations, which are $13.11 per share as of December 31, 2022,
Speaker 7: declined as rates increased.
Speaker 7: and duration expectations lengthen, driving the increase in economic book value.
Speaker 7: Assuming that loan and security pricing has remained relatively flat so far in 2023,
Speaker 7: With January's rally being offset by a retreat in February ,
Speaker 7: We estimate our gap in economic book value as of the end of February to be fairly flat as well, inclusive of the known impact of the dividend payment to be made in March.
Speaker 7: Looking forward, we plan to resume purchases of newly originated loans.
Speaker 7: We will do this selectively and will continue to emphasize liquidity throughout the process. Recent rate locks are in the mid 8% range with average LTBs of 72% and FICO scores of 752. We will continue to emphasize liquidity throughout the process.
Speaker 7: We believe that purchasing these loans and maintaining a methodical securitization process is the best way to organically grow the earnings potential of the portfolio.
Speaker 7: Finally, the company has declared a 32 cent per share common dividend payable on March 31, 2023 to shareholders of record as of March 22, 2023.
Speaker 7: For additional color on our financial results, please review the earnings supplement available on our website. I will now turn it back to Shrini for closing remarks.
Speaker 4: Thank you, Brandon. 2022 was a year of unique challenges for the market.
Speaker 4: beset with rising inflation, higher interest rates, and recession concerns.
Speaker 4: While Angeloc was not immune to these challenges, we acted decisively to ensure the strength of our capital structure and have positioned ourselves to restart our growth programs.
Speaker 4: As always, I do like to thank the entire Angelok team for their hard work and their contributions as we seek to build long term value for our shareholders.
Speaker 4: With that, we'll open up the call to your questions. Operator.
Speaker 2: Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. Please press star and then one on your telephone keypad.
Speaker 2: star and then two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary for you to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we poll for questions.
Speaker 2: The first question comes from Chris Kotowski from Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question, Chris.
Speaker 7: Good morning, thanks for taking my question. I guess just given the large number of moving parts with the sale and the securitization and so on and and and given that we're like 68 days into a 90-day quarter I wonder if you could
Speaker 7: you know, give some guidance on expectations for net interest income in, say, the first and or second quarter if you can see that far out.
Speaker 7: What we're seeing, we haven't added much things to the portfolio. With the securitization going out, the top line NIM will...
Speaker 7: go down slightly. I expect with that securitization that the net interest margin should stay slightly compressed due to higher borrowing costs, but we've as we've moved another 240 million dollars off to you know fixed securitization cost. We'll see some of that bleed through in NIM.
Speaker 7: And you mean that in dollar terms relative to the 7.4 million? Okay. And then, okay, that's very helpful. And then presumably in the coming quarters it'll be a function of when and if you add to...
Speaker 8: the balance sheet overall. And I know it's a very fluid environment but any
Speaker 8: any guesses to the likely balance sheet trends over the course of the year?
Speaker 7: Yeah, we expect to get another securitization out, much like we did in January . That would be probably a little bit smaller than the one we did, but reducing the whole loan balance, securitizing more loans, and then very soon start.
Speaker 7: purchasing newly originated loans, which I think Srinivasan had mentioned in his section, you know, are approaching 9% coupons. So that, you know, as we build that balance sheet, the loan balance will come up some where we won't go as high as we did like in Q1 of 22. But as we buy those market coupon loans, you'll see both top line and bottom line NIM are interested.
Speaker 7: Yeah, well the $8 million includes a decent amount of securitization cost. Going forward over the next year, looking at management fees will be decreasing. Our management fee that we pay the manager is based on distributed earnings.
Speaker 7: So as we had, you know, distributed earnings lost this quarter, that's going to reduce. Run rate is going to go down about a million dollars there. And then, you know, as some of the other things happen, you know, we're doing a lot of analysis and we've brought in some services that we previously outsourced that are good cost savings. You know, you should see another, call it, million dollars in savings kind of.
Speaker 8: that's relative to the 1.79 million this quarter on OPEX.
Speaker 7: Yes, but that's, yeah, the 1.8 is a quarter, I'm saying, annually, saving us about a million on OPEX and a million on management fee.
Speaker 8: Okay, those are annual numbers though. That's right.
Speaker 2: Okay, alrighty, thank you, that's it for me. Thank you, the next question comes from Don from Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question, Don.
Speaker 7: Yes, can you talk a little bit about the securitization markets? Obviously, you had a little window in January , but has that shot? Do you think another deal can get done in this type of environment? And how do you feel generally speaking about liquidity? I mean, the Fed's still raising rates, still uncertain time. Does it make sense to... Can you get something out of the way of the SEC?
Speaker 4: Through the franchise, we are securitizing through different vehicles. Obviously, the REIT was able to take advantage of a good January . We hit the securitization markets, but we're consistently in the markets, and we follow it. I will tell you, we have done another securitization here in February through our other vehicles.
Speaker 4: The difference between the markets today, as of right now, Don, markets are getting fickle, but as of right now what we're seeing is these are getting done. They obviously will widen out as the markets get volatile, but we're not in a situation of...
Speaker 4: in August , September , October , November of last year when there was absolute illiquidity in the system. And also remember there's not a lot of new originations that have been done. So if buy side guys want to buy bonds of non-QM shelf, they got to buy now. There's not much supply that's going to be out there. I mean if you look at the read, we don't have, I mean we literally have nothing left anymore after one or two more.
Speaker 4: in terms of your other question of liquidity. And look, we went through a lot of these iterations last year, as you guys know. But where we are, I mean, if you think about the loans we have in a non-market to market facility, we have.
Speaker 4: a little bit over 100 million in a market to market facility which is not significant risk. So we're not gonna go out and just double down and use all the liquidity and buy loans. So that's why, as Brandon was saying, even if we look to buy loans, by the time the loans get locked, the loans get closed, we're looking at...
Speaker 4: putting money to work next month or the following month, and we will do it very thoughtfully relative to risk and relative to securitization markets. So for example, in March, if the securitization markets don't behave, we may slow down even more to buy new loans. So we feel we are in a good position to do both now.
Speaker 4: And that's what we are focused. So yeah, please don't expect us to just go double down and buy every single 9% coupon out there. What is the plan in terms of a sustainable dividend level?
Speaker 7: 32 would have been a sustainable level that we could maintain comfortably, you know, throughout, at least throughout, you know, the 12-month period. Always subject to review and analysis, but we are still comfortable with that as well. Like I said, when we did this last securitization, you know, it'll function like our pre-IPO deals where we just retain.
Speaker 7: behind us and now it's going to be a good return. Then as we start buying the new loans building back that NIM you know it looks relatively good you know on the out a couple quarters this year especially like a Shrini said we're we're almost through or through a lot of the lower coupon loans.
Speaker 7: The risk of margin calls is significantly reduced. I mean, just put some numbers around it. Shrini mentioned we have about $140 million on our mark-to-market facility, but that's down for about $1.1 billion Q1 of 22. So the risk is, I mean, it's not zero, but it's significantly less than it has been in a year.
Speaker 7: of margin calls is significantly reduced. I mean, just put some numbers around it. Shrini mentioned we have about $140 million on our mark-to-market facility, but that's down for about 1.1 billion Q1 of 22. So the risk is, I mean, it's not zero, but it's significantly less than it has been in a year. You got it, thanks.
Speaker 2: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just another reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star and then one. The next question comes from Matthew from B Riley. Please proceed with your question, Matthew.
Speaker 9: Thanks. Good morning everybody. Thanks for taking my question. Guys, could you address the potential, the opportunity to repurchase stock here at 50% of economic value?
Speaker 9: I recognize you're paying down the warehouse line and the focus on liquidity. Maybe you could give us the unrestricted cash position today. But in terms of looking at buying new loans going forward versus buying back the stock, how do you look at that analysis?
Speaker 7: Yeah, no, I think we are looking at that analysis. We've continued to look at that analysis. Nothing has been decided today on that. We...
Speaker 7: We believe at this point where we have and look at future returns, there's obviously we have a point in time today that looks like you know you've got a large dividend yield, you take an immediate.
Speaker 7: you know, return if you will because you know you repurchase shares. But at the same time that it's going to shrink the size of this company. We've had a lot of changes in the market. We've had a lot of changes in the market. We've had a lot of changes in the market.
Speaker 7: We've gone from about $500 million in equity capital base to $235 million today.
Speaker 7: You know, we don't want to necessarily shrink it anymore. Also keep the float up in the stock to help with trading. But again, we're evaluating that.
Speaker 7: and we'll see where it goes. So unrestricted cash today is about $30 million, but that is, and then we also have about another $60 million of unlevered assets, bonds that are easily convertible and then about...
Speaker 7: $18 million of unlevered loans that we could either lever or sell.
Speaker 7: that we could either lever or sell pretty easily.
Speaker 9: No, you did a great job getting under the warehouse line and paying it down and sort of look forward for the next situations. Great that you have access. Thanks, everyone. We'll be back in a few minutes.
Speaker 9: To it's a big step and then that no I mean Can you just address I mean you talked about credit and the embedded HPA, but you know I think for investors Non-qm is getting a lot of press and the people you know it's always the sort of area that people are cautious about Just in 23 and I know non-qm is abroad
Speaker 9: Dr. could you just talk about where your non QM is in terms of credit versus maybe the overall industry and why you feel that it's going to hold up better than the generic non QM.
Speaker 4: I will take this one and Nameet jump in if you want to add to it. We have always told people that non-QM of today is not the subprime of 2007 and in a combination of full underwriting of credits.
Speaker 4: loan to values in the 70s, true appraisals, et cetera, et cetera. When you originate a loan and you have all these qualities that you are underwriting, your risk of default goes low. Now, that being said, look, if we are going to go in a harder session...
Speaker 4: we're not naive to think that there will be delinquencies and defaults. I mean that's gonna happen through a cycle, right? It's just a matter of when and how it happens. But the new originations that we have, by the way, just so you know, we have gone really up in credit, and not just in the read across our franchise. We are...
Speaker 4: We have almost slowed down our investor cash flow loans. We are not doing high LTV loans at all. We are very, very conservative in terms of what we are originating as of right now. So we are clearly conscious that even though we think that the credit is good, you definitely need to tighten your credit even more going into a potential.
Speaker 10: When we talk about our average FICO scores being 740 plus and our average loan to values in the low 70s, these are attributes that sort of look similar to agency originations, quite different from the historical knowledge into origination that used to happen in the pre-global financial crisis period.
Speaker 10: And these loans have performed really, really well. They've hardly had any losses in the last seven, eight years of our originations. Now, if we do go into a bumpy macro environment, as Sheeny mentioned, we do expect some increase in delinquency. But if you have a book with whether delinquency numbers are running with a 1% handle.
Speaker 10: and we go into a recession and that delinquency goes up like 50%, you're still talking about a delinquency that is close to 2%. And that is not a huge detraction from the return potential of these loans, especially when you think of the loan coupons that are being originated. We are talking about a 9% coupon being originated and we are talking about a 10% coupon being originated. And we are talking about a 10% coupon being originated.
Speaker 10: with a 740 plus FICO and a 70 LTV. And if you have, and because of the current market spread, these loan prices have remained very suppressed. So if your delinquencies go from 1% to 2%, it does not take much. I mean, if you do them a rough map around it, and let's say that marginal extra 1% loans default at a 50% rate. So now you have an extra 50 basis points of default.
Speaker 10: you apply 50 severity, you have an extra 25 business points of loss spread over three years, that's an eight business point reduction in loan yield. That's hardly anything when you look at the current coupons on these loans. So yes, in any macro environment which goes into a recessionary period, no matter what the quality of the loan, you're going to see a percentage.
Speaker 10: sort of increase in delinquency, but given the platform, given the loan underwriting, given the quality of these loans, that number is not expected to be, you know, where some of the earlier non-agency programs used to go to in prior tough periods. I'll certainly say that the disconnect between, you know, what you're saying with the market is not typical enough, and you can see that it's only beneath M liabilities Under admittedly, 0.9 million or less. I've positively referred Michaelsei,gre environmentalist dislike of India. But his
Speaker 9: Last question, just a quick update on Angel Health's mortgage company. Do you feel like the right size, the platform, do you feel like it's in position to grow 23?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll take that one. Yeah, I mean, you know, there's a lot of conversations about the Angel of Mortgage company. Just to reiterate, we had two mortgage companies. So one is important for this discussion and one was just a business venture we had. So we had a retail mortgage originator, which was largely a agency mortgage originator.
Speaker 4: and that's where we had some of our licenses. And that's the business that we dramatically reduced because that was a non-core function. We made a good amount of money in 2021 and market got really tough in 2022 and that was not the business we really wanted to be in. On terms of non-QM, which really came from our wholesale mortgage originator, which is Mortgage Solutions.
Speaker 4: really the majority of infrastructure is exactly the same. It's not any different. We made, obviously every mortgage company has gone to cost cuttings, but we really have not much, you know, risk on balance sheet, we're originating a volume here, and flowing through coupons are approaching 9% as we speak.
Speaker 4: But volumes have dropped. They're probably gonna end up being half of what they were early last year. But what we're focused on right now in the mortgage company is not volume, it's more volume and credit. And that's what we're focused on. But not many changes from that perspective.
Speaker 2: Great, thanks everyone. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to management for closing remarks. Thank you.
Speaker 2: Great, thanks everyone. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to management for closing remarks. Thank you.
Speaker 4: Thank you everyone for your time and interest in Angelok Mortgage Week. We look forward to connecting with you again next quarter. Please feel free to reach out to us. We invite you to our offices anytime you guys would love to come and sit down with us. Thank you so much. Bye.
Speaker 2: Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's call. Thank you very much for your time. You may now disconnect your lines.
Speaker 1: The.