Q4 2022 Solo Brands Inc Earnings Call
Speaker 1: financial results.
Speaker 1: My name is Bruno and I'll be operating your call today.
Speaker 1: During the presentation you can register to ask a question by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. I will now hand over to your host, Bruce Williams. Please go ahead.
Speaker 2: Good morning everyone and thank you for joining the call to discuss Solow Brands 4th Quarter results which we released this morning and can be found on the investor relations section of our website at investors.solowbrands.com.
Speaker 2: Today's call will be hosted by Chief Executive Officer John Maris and Chief Financial Officer Summer Webb.
Speaker 2: Before we get started, I want to remind everyone that management's remarks on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are based on current management expectations. These may include without limitation, predictions, expectations, targets or estimates.
Speaker 2: including regarding our anticipated financial performance, business plans, and objectives.
Speaker 2: and future events and developments, and actual results could differ materially from those mentioned.
Speaker 2: These forward-looking statements also involve substantial risks and uncertainties, some of which may be outside of our control, and that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements.
Speaker 2: These risks and uncertainties among others are discussing our filings with the SEC We encourage you to review these filings for a discussion of these risks including our soon-to-be filed annual report on form 2k And will be available on the investors portion of our website at investors.solo brands.com We should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements
Speaker 2: These statements are made only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update or advise them for any new information except as required by law.
Speaker 2: This call will also contain certain non-DAP financial measures.
Speaker 2: including net income as adjusted, diluted earnings per share as adjusted, gross margin as adjusted, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA margin, which we believe are useful supplemental measures that assist in evaluating our ability to generate earnings, provide consistency and comparability with our past performance, and facilitate period-to-period comparisons of our core operating results.
Speaker 2: and the results of peer companies.
Speaker 2: Reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures and definitions of these indicators are included in our earnings release.
Speaker 2: which will be available to our investors portion of our website at investors.solo brands.com.
Speaker 2: Now, I would like to turn the call over to John .
Speaker 3: Thank you, Bruce, and thank you for joining the call to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results as well as our 2023 outlook. To begin, we were incredibly pleased with our fourth quarter results with sales and suggested even increasing double digits despite a difficult macro environment.
Speaker 3: At the beginning of 2022, we shared our investment strategy along with confidence that our business model would allow us to make investments in long-term growth without sacrificing strong profits and positive free cash flow.
Speaker 3: I'm happy to share that our investments began paying off in the back half of the year and culminated in strong Q4 results.
Speaker 3: Customer response to our products is not only high during the key selling period we call Cyber 5 or Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, but also continue through the remainder of the holiday selling season.
Speaker 3: This positive customer response was most evident in the number of shoppers we saw come through our online stores and the rate at which these shoppers converted to customers.
Speaker 3: When the dust settled on the quarter, we had delivered strong top line growth, all while generating strong adjusted E to the and solid free cash flow, just as we had planned. Overall, our results are a testament to the strength of our business model, which allows us to drive growth while reinvesting into the business.
Speaker 3: Customer relationships have been and will continue to be at the heart of our business.
Speaker 3: It took us about 10 years to acquire nearly 2 million customers through our website. It took only 2 years to double that number.
Speaker 3: The rate at which we are acquiring customers and the direct relationship we maintain with them differentiates our business and creates a competitive mode around it.
Speaker 3: As our loyal customer base grows, so does our moat. But the story doesn't end here. We remain relentlessly focused on delivering an exceptional customer experience, and our team finds new ways to wild them frequently.
Speaker 3: Innovating new products, enhancing the online shopping experience, and shipping orders the same day they are placed on our websites are just a few ways we surprise and delight our customers regularly. Create good is a core value at Philo Brands. And it turns out, you can create a lot of good by just treating your customers exceptionally well.
Speaker 3: Expect for us to continue obsessing over customer experience simply because it's the right thing to do. But know that focusing on the customer isn't just good for customers.
Speaker 3: It's good for our team and shareholders too.
Speaker 3: The fellow brand's referral rate is something we are extremely proud of, and it fuels our customers' desire to share with their friends and family the incredible experiences they've had with our company. We coordinate, guide, and share, what you hear, what you need and what you want to do.
Speaker 3: Innovation is found all around our business. One of the obvious places is in new products.
Speaker 3: In 2022, we launched more new products than any other year in our history.
Speaker 3: and the new products quickly became customer favorites. There are too many to list, but I'll highlight a couple. Last spring, we entered the exciting and fast-growing portable pizza oven category by launching Pie, an oven that leverages our signature 360-degree airflow and can cook homemade pizza in less than two minutes.
Speaker 3: Customer feedback has been exceptional for Pi and last year's demand peaked in Q4 when we sold out of Pi inventory in December . Mesa, a tabletop fire pit, was launched in late summer and was a response to customers asking for an outdoor fire pit that could be used in more spaces.
Speaker 3: This small but mighty solo stove generates the same secondary burn as our well-known larger stoves, but is even faster and easier to use and costs less than $100.
Speaker 3: Early data shows that Mesa is attracting more customers factor while giving us access to backyard patios and yards that may be too small for our popular bonfire fire pit.
Speaker 3: I hope it is obvious how core new product innovation is to our business and how important we believe it is to our long-term success. All in all, Solo Brands launched over 15 new products last year and we expect them to have a meaningful impact on our business in the future.
Speaker 3: Another area of innovation at Solar Brands is in our digital and data infrastructure. Last year we made big improvements in how we ingest, digest, and utilize first-party and third-party data at Solar Brands. Our investments into data and digital had far-reaching impacts on marketing efficiencies and scalability.
Speaker 3: And because we believe we have barely scratched the surface on potential market penetration, our unique and proprietary digital and data focus has a long runway to find prospects and profitably convert them to new customers.
Speaker 3: In addition, we are finding new, more efficient ways to get existing customers to come back again and again for additional purchases.
Speaker 3: 2023 is all about leaning into the things that are working well. And so our priorities for this year are, first, to continue expanding our data management and infrastructure. Second, drive growth internationally. And third, broaden and deepen our wholesale partnerships.
Speaker 3: Data and digital investments began paying off in the back half of last year, and we expect to continue investing in them this year.
Speaker 3: our first-party data and our ability to use this data to drive meaningful interactions with customers, improves engagement, retention, and referral rates.
Speaker 3: We started seeing strong momentum in our international markets in the second half of Q4 and want to continue pushing profitable growth internationally in 2023. We have significant growth opportunities in our existing countries and we plan to launch localized e-commerce stores and additional new markets this year. We still believe that in the long term our international business has the potential to
Speaker 3: need and want us to be. Dix, Ace, Academy Shield, Costco, and others have been solid partners, and we are working closely with them to strategically outsource, expand SKUs, and coordinate promotions so more customers can be exposed to and participate with our company. As I mentioned earlier, because we're early in our story, we believe this shift is stronger.
Speaker 3: We are operating in an interesting environment. On the one hand, we have tremendous wind at our back. Our investments from last year paid off. We have built a strong foundation on which to stand, and we're focused on some exciting new initiatives that we feel confident will only provide additional wind to ourselves.
Speaker 3: On the other hand, the macro environment is uncertain. Inflation remains high, and there's obvious risk to consumer discretionary spending. It's easy to get tossed around with so many conflicting factors, but our business remains on solid footing. We have produced healthy growth, strong profits, and positive free cash flow. I'm proud of our team and their resilience, and I can honestly say we're excited for the future.
Speaker 3: The outlook you will hear from Summer is one that accounts for the uncertainties in the macro environment. We can't predict the future of the consumer, inflation, or interest rate, but we can and will execute our playbook, which is long-term and profit-oriented. I'm so thankful for our team that is truly the backbone of this company and now turn the call over to Summer to discuss the financials and our outlook on 2020.
Speaker 4: products, stronger international penetration, and continued growth of our core products through both wholesale and direct consumer channels.
Speaker 4: On our last call, we mentioned that we were seeing a change in consumer behavior from our prior year coming into the quarter and we revised guidance based on those trends.
Speaker 4: As the rest of the year unfolded, we were pleased to see consumers revert back to pre-pandemic shopping timing and behavior resulting in strong late November and December growth.
Speaker 4: Our brands also gained momentum in the quarter with our retail partners as we nearly doubled ourselves and our wholesale channel.
Speaker 4: We managed our inventory and cash prudently and ended the year well positioned for 2023.
Speaker 4: Diving into the fourth quarter results, net sales increased 11.8% to $197.2 million compared to $176.5 million in the prior year period.
Speaker 4: Sales were driven by strong demand in the wholesale channel as we continued to increase our market penetration.
Speaker 4: Met sales for the full year finished at $517.6 million, an increase of 28.2% versus 2021, driven by strong results across all channels.
Speaker 4: Wholesale net sales increased 196.4% to 36.5 million from the fourth quarter compared to 12.3 million in the prior year as we expanded our presence with retail partners.
Speaker 4: Our direct consumer net sales decreased 2.1% to $160.8 million for the fourth quarter, compared to $164.2 million in the same period in the prior year.
Speaker 4: We were pleased with our overall performance as we were comping over 160% growth from the prior year.
Speaker 4: As John mentioned, meeting our customers where they are through channel expansion remains a part of our long-term growth strategy, and for full year 2022, both the direct-to-consumer and wholesale channels grew double digits. Our sales channel mix was approximately 80-20 between direct-to-consumer and wholesale for four years.
Speaker 4: continued their high growth pattern and were up 19.1% for the year compared to the full year 2021.
Speaker 4: Additionally, wholesale net sales were up 96 percent from 2021.
Speaker 4: Moving to gross margin, our gross margin rate was 59.8% for the quarter compared to 63.3% in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Speaker 4: Gross margins for the year were 61.5% compared to 64.1% for the full year 2021.
Speaker 4: Gross margins for both the fourth quarter and the full year were impacted by the gross margin profile of our 2021 acquisition and higher inbound freight.
Speaker 4: Our gross margin rate was also affected by higher sales through our wholesale channel, which although carries a lower gross margin, has similar EBITDA contribution margins.
Speaker 4: Selling general and administrative expenses for the fourth quarter increased to 84.7 million, or 43 percent of net sales, as compared to 82.5 million, or 46.8 percent of net sales in the same period last year.
Speaker 4: The variance was driven by $7.4 million of higher fixed costs, partially offset by $5.2 million decrease in variable costs.
Speaker 4: The fixed cost increase was primarily due to the increased employee-related costs related to increased headcount and costs associated with becoming a public company.
Speaker 4: The variable cost decrease was due to lower marketing expense driven by benefits from our data investment.
Speaker 4: SG&A for the full year increased at 259 million or 50 percent of net sales compared to 159.5 million or 39.5 percent of net sales in the prior year.
Speaker 4: The increase for the year included $43.7 million of increases in SG&A related to businesses acquired in 2021.
Speaker 4: The remaining increase in SG&A resulted from increased employee-related costs, costs associated with becoming a public company, increased marketing expense, and investments in long-term strategic initiatives. Our fourth quarter net income was $19.5 million and net income per diluted share was $0.18.
Speaker 4: Fourth quarter adjusted net income was $29 million and our adjusted EPS was $0.33 per deleted share.
Speaker 4: Full year 2022 ended with a net loss of $7.6 million, which included roughly $31 million of non-cash goodwill and intangible impairment charges recognized in Q2.
Speaker 4: Full year 2022 ended with a net loss of $7.6 million, which included roughly $31 million of non-cash goodwill and intangible impairment charges recognized in Q2, or a loss of share of $0.08.
Speaker 4: Full year adjusted net income was $65 million or adjusted EPS of $1.07 per share.
Speaker 4: During the quarter and the year, we continued to invest in long-term strategic initiatives in data, product innovation, and international expansion and delivered adjusted EBITDA of $38.7 million and adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.6%.
Speaker 4: Four-year adjusted EBITDA was $87.6 million or 16.9% of net sales.
Speaker 4: Now turning to the balance sheet, at the end of the period we had $23.3 million in cash and cash equivalent.
Speaker 4: As of December 31st, we had $20 million in outstanding borrowings under the revolving credit facility and $96.3 million under the term loan agreement.
Speaker 4: The borrowing capacity of the revolving credit facility was $350 million as of December 31st, creating $330 million of availability.
Speaker 4: We have a strong liquidity position and we believe we are able to take advantage of strategic opportunities with a net leverage that remains less than 1.5 times.
Speaker 4: Inventory at the end of 2022 was $133 million.
Speaker 4: We are pleased with the progress we made on our inventory levels during the fourth quarter with a decrease of 32.8 million vs Q3.
Speaker 4: Inventory increased versus prior year due to growth of the business, expansion into international markets and new product launches.
Speaker 4: Turning to our outlook for 2023.
Speaker 4: We continue to be incredibly excited about our long-term growth strategy and see tremendous opportunity from both channel and category expansion in our business.
Speaker 4: However, we are mindful of the current uncertain environment and not immune to the pressures on consumers' discretionary spending.
Speaker 4: The state of the economy, inflation, and consumer spending are creating many unknowns.
Speaker 4: We have seen softness in consumer spending through our direct-to-consumer channel entering 2023, which we expect to continue in the near term.
Speaker 4: However, John mentioned we've seen success with our wholesale partners and we will continue to lean into those relationships even more in 2023 to continue to broaden our customer reach.
Speaker 4: Given this backdrop for fiscal 2023, we are forecasting revenue in the range of $520 million to $540 million for the whole year.
Speaker 4: We believe we will be able to drive strong EBITDA margins in 2023 through returns on our data investments, driving marketing efficiency, resulting in a forecasted range of 16.5 to 17.5% for adjusted EBITDA margins.
Speaker 4: While we are not providing quarterly earnings guidance, we will provide some general comments regarding quarterly cadence.
Speaker 4: We expect our revenues to come in consistent with prior years.
Speaker 4: Due to the seasonality of our portfolio of brands, that represents roughly 15% in Q1.
Speaker 4: 25% for Q2, 20% in Q3, and 40% in Q4.
Speaker 4: As we continue to see strong profitability from our wholesale channel in line with our direct consumer business, we believe that wholesale has the potential to be up to 25% of our total sales by the end of the year. As a reminder, although the overall contribution from our wholesale and D2C channels are similar, wholesale carries a lower gross margin.
Speaker 4: As we've discussed on prior calls, freight will continue to be a headwind for the first half of 23, however, should be a tailwind in the second half.
Speaker 4: We've noted that 2022 was a year of investment, of which many were initiated in Q2 of 2022.
Speaker 4: So when forecasting Q1 and Q2 earnings, we expected increases in SG&A year over year from those additions. Our view on forecasted performance anticipates that current macro environment headwinds continue throughout the remainder of the year.
Speaker 4: Although we feel prepared to face market turbulence in the short term, we will continue to monitor changes in consumer behavior and make the best short and long-term adjustments necessary for sustained growth and profitability.
Speaker 4: With that said, we remain confident in our long-term growth potential and are eager to continue to deliver strong financial results for our shareholders.
Speaker 4: Before opening up the call for questions, I'd like to take a moment to thank our team for their hard work and dedication.
Speaker 4: We appreciate all that you do to make Solar Brands successful.
Speaker 4: While the microenvironment is unpredictable, we remain focused on controlling what we can control and executing our strategic plans to position us for long-term growth.
Speaker 1: I will now turn the call over to the operator to begin Q&A. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad now.
Speaker 1: Our first question is from Randy Konig from Jeffries. Randy, your line is now open, please go ahead.
Speaker 1: Great. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess first for John , maybe give us some perspective on how you're feeling about the customer, perhaps differences or similarities in terms of their buying behavior or tendency to buy across.
Speaker 1: solo versus chubbies at the moment. Just want to get some perspective there.
Speaker 3: Thanks for ending. Good morning, everybody.
Speaker 3: I think just in general, if we look at behavior of the customer and we've talked about the number of customers that have purchased from more than one brand, it's been a metric that we've been paying attention to. I'd say generally speaking, we see the conversion happen in both directions. We see Chebys customers coming over and becoming Silicose customers.
Speaker 3: We also see solar stove customers converting over and becoming Trebbies customers. That being said, what we found last year as we invested into the data work that Summer just emphasized in her call is that we actually are seeing better gains in the solar system than was never seen before and what we found throughout has never been seen before.
Speaker 3: in focusing our data efforts more around becoming more efficient within the brands themselves. So while we're seeing some crossover and some lift, it just ultimately hasn't been the highest priority because we've seen better gains driving marketing efficiency within the brands and focusing on...
Speaker 3: driving, for instance, a repeat purchase within Solo Stove or a repeat purchase within Chubbies. So there's been less emphasis than I would say maybe we anticipated we would be putting on it this time last year around the kind of cross-brand shopping or marketing.
Speaker 1: Understood. And when you talk about the customer just a little more cautious, are they a little bit more cautious would you say at solo over Chubbies or Chubbies over solo? Just clarify that if there is any. No, I think it's there.
Speaker 3: No, really not much. It's been pretty consistent.
Speaker 3: If I had to lead one way or another, I'd say that the chubbies consumer seems to be pretty resilient right now. And if we've seen kind of one lead out slightly over another, it would be the chubbies consumer being a little bit stronger than the solar stove consumer.
Speaker 3: But with the launch of Mesa for Solo Stove and that lower price point, that entry price point, we saw a really strong conversion rate with customers being able to come in and participate at a lower price point. You know, AOBs are obviously drastically different between Chubbies and Solo Stove, and we like that new entry-level price point for the Mesa product.
Speaker 1: My last question is going to Dick's Sporting Goods you can clearly see the wind, you've got more floor space if you will. I've seen more of a Chubby's product etc. So maybe give us some perspective on.
Speaker 1: I guess using Dick's Sporting Goods as an example of what's changed in the last 12 to 24 months because clearly they're committing more to your brands in your portfolio. Just give us some thoughts there and then where do we go from here with that and just maybe talk about any color they give you around your sell-in.
Speaker 3: I mean yourself through relative to other brands in their box would be super helpful. Thanks. Yeah, you got it. You know, Chubbies has done an excellent job, I think historically, with the way that they've built their retail partnerships. And what's been great is that the rest of the brands in our portfolio have had the opportunity to learn from their efforts. So one of the big changes that you've seen over the last 18 months is Solo Stove and Oru Nile.
Speaker 3: all getting visibility and starting to work closely with the wholesale teams at Chubbies to understand how they've approached those partnerships. Dix has been a phenomenal partner to Chubbies and of course was already a partner to Solaceau but just not as deep, not as wide as we saw with Chubbies. So what we've been doing is watching what Chubbies has done and what matters to the retailers and learning from that.
Speaker 3: just going deeper in the store, getting more footprint. Like you mentioned, you've seen kind of more product being out there, so carrying more SKUs. Almost a store-in-store type approach is what we're starting to lean into, and that's consistent not just with Dick's, but with other retailers as well.
Speaker 3: Doing a better job, especially for Solstvog, at coordinating promotions, at giving earlier visibility to new product launches and things like that, has really helped us to build stronger partnerships with retailers that are now saying, gosh, with this level of visibility and this level of coordination, we really want to go deeper and stronger with all the brands.
Speaker 1: Super helpful. Thanks guys. Thanks Randy. As a reminder ladies and gentlemen to ask a question please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Please do also limit to one question one follow up.
Speaker 1: Our next question is from Robbie Holmes from Bank of America. Robbie, your line is now open. Please go ahead. Hi, it's Maddie on for Robbie. Thanks for taking our question. Just first, what was the key reason for the decline in DTC revenue growth in 4Q?
Speaker 4: Was it driven by slower new customer acquisition? And how does the DTC channel revenue growth compare to your sell-through at brick and mortar retail?
Speaker 3: Thanks, Manny, and good morning. We grew, I think the stat was 196% in wholesale. Certainly there was a shift in just where consumers were buying, so I think that was definitely a driver. There you go.
Speaker 3: I think also if you look at previous year 2021 to 4, the shopping behavior just happened, it came way earlier. So consumers were concerned about being able to get the gifts that they were looking for for Christmas. And so holiday shopping, we were even seeing holiday shopping happening in early mid-October in 2021. This year, as you heard on our last call,
Speaker 3: the first part of Q4 looked much different than it had in 2021. It looked much more like a pre-COVID type buying behavior where consumers seem to be waiting.
Speaker 3: The good news is that consumers did show up during the week of Thanksgiving and through the rest of the year. So we made up a ton of ground, not all of the ground. And then the last thing I would just make note of is that, you know, Summer called us out, but Q4 of 2021, I think we were laughing something like 130% or something like that 160% year over year.
Speaker 3: And I think Randy kind of alluded to this and I didn't address this one, but we're hearing very positive feedback overall from our retail partners on sell-through and that's reflected in their coming back with replenishment orders. So we're happy with what we're seeing on the wholesale front. It's not just a sell-in scenario for us. It's definitely sell-through.
Speaker 3: And ultimately that's been leading to replenishment order. So far so good on that front and looking forward to continue to lean in to both PTC and also this year.
Speaker 3: speaking a deal? Yeah, it's a good question. I think the biggest shift for us is more around the coordination with our retail partners and the way we're thinking about promotions moving forward. We have been in large part in a great position.
Speaker 3: for the customer. And so in an environment like this, where they're really, really tight and kind of pinching every dollar and making it stretch, we like the position we're in from an overall pricing and promotional perspective, because it is allowing more consumers, we think, to participate with our brand.
Speaker 3: and feel like we're in it with them versus gouging them and increasing our pricing. We're in a good spot in that regard and again, our marketing profile is allowing us to.
Speaker 3: to hold pricing, to not increase pricing to the consumer, and ultimately still deliver really through our margins as a business. Great, thank you. Good luck going forward.
Speaker 3: to not increase pricing to the consumer and ultimately still deliver really through our margin as a business. Great, thank you. Best of luck going forward. Thanks.
Speaker 5: Our next question is from Ryan Sunby from William Blair. Ryan, your line is now open, please go ahead.
Speaker 6: Hey guys, thanks for the question. Can you talk a little more about what you're seeing so far internationally? Maybe how that ramp looks across the different markets? Is the product similar to what you're seeing here in the US?
Speaker 6: And as you think about a more even split between domestic and international over time.
Speaker 3: Is that based on the current markets today or would that require further expansion? Thanks. Thanks Ryan and good morning. It definitely will include more markets than where we currently are. So I'll just kind of address that one really quickly. On the product mix and just overall strategy.
Speaker 3: You know, we're very early. Last year was our first full year having localized sites, both in Canada and in Europe .
Speaker 3: Very pleased with what we're seeing out of the gate. Certainly a faster ramp up, as you would imagine, than call it the first 18 months of when we launched domestically the brand. So overall, we're really pleased. From a SKU-MIX standpoint, it looks very similar to the U.S. but to the one exception internationally it's the Fullstone prepared ship.
Speaker 3: When we launch new products, there's just generally a lag between our international business and our domestic business. So if we launch, for instance, pizza oven, we launched last spring here in the U.S. and didn't launch it until mid-fall to late fall in our international market. So you'll generally see a lag with new products, but otherwise we're carrying the majority of the SKUs.
Speaker 3: As I've mentioned in the past, the other note is that Solo Stove is generally in the new market, the lead brand, and then we look to follow on behind Solo Stove with the other brands.
Speaker 6: just based on size of opportunity and overall brand awareness. Okay. Maybe just following up on Randy's question, Johnny mentioned deepening penetration with existing customers, being more coordinated moving forward. But it does seem like Coleslough is a key driver next year. Thanks for watching!
Speaker 3: How should we think about having new partners or maybe even more permanent presence in channels like club? Yeah, I think all of that is in motion and it's all at the table right now. You know, we're still early and the guy that we're putting forth kind of reflects.
Speaker 3: underexposed right now from an overall wholesale retail standpoint. There's a lot of opportunity for us to lean in here and we're exploring all options. So again, whether it's going wider or going deeper, so wider meaning more retail with more doors, going deeper meaning more permanent in-store, store in-store, more prominent displays within retailers, that sort of thing. Those are all things that we're pretty excited to continue to lean into.
Speaker 3: And our conversations so far with our existing retail partners suggest that we're moving in the right direction there. And if we were to see, you know, meaningful movement there, there's definitely stuff to get excited about in the future. In terms of new partners, we're going to be looking at the new partners with the new retail
Speaker 3: We're going to continue to be very strategic and very selective with the retail partners that we bring on. There is definitely interest outside of our current base of retailers.
Speaker 3: And it's just important to us that we don't overextend here or bring on the wrong partners that aren't going to be brand lifting to us. So you can expect us to be disciplined here. We're not just gonna go kind of all out all at once. But be strategic and thoughtful about it and. Hmm.
Speaker 5: conversations to go deeper. All right, it looks great to hear. Thanks. Our next question is from Peter Keith from Piper Sandler.
Speaker 5: Peter, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Speaker 7: Good morning, this is Matt Egger on for Peter. Thanks for taking our question.
Speaker 7: First off from us, we're just curious on the gross margin, what's implied in your outlook. Maybe you can speak to how ocean freight has negatively impacted that line and how much ocean freight call back you have kind of embedded in the outlook.
Speaker 1: And then kind of maybe just speak to how the mix to wholesale and kind of the net impacts there. Thanks Yeah, absolutely So when I think about gross margins for the year, you know, we are still targeting 60% plus
Speaker 4: It will be impacted by the percentage of wholesale mix. I want to continue to note, though, that although it puts pressure on gross margin, from an EBITDA standpoint, it has similar contribution as our direct consumer channel. I mentioned that wholesale could be up to 25% of our overall mix.
Speaker 4: 100 to 150 basis points. But overall we're still targeting 60% plus on gross margin. It may vary by quarter. Just to note, typically from a wholesale standpoint, Q1 and Q3 are going to be our higher wholesale quarters.
Speaker 4: because as they stock for the holiday season, so for instance, for the summer season, they're stocking at Q1. For the winter season, they're typically stocking at the end of Q3 or early Q4. But overall, again, still targeting a 60% plus for the year.
Speaker 7: Great. That's really helpful. Thank you. And second from us, we're kind of curious on the cash flow statement and the inventory outlook given the mix to wholesale this year. I guess what's the projected inventory balance by year end and are you expecting – maybe if you can provide any details around what you're expecting for cash flow from operations.
Speaker 4: within kind of the guidance outlook. Thanks. Yeah, we typically haven't given those metrics. You know, we are obviously, we said in our Q3 call that we expected our inventory levels to come down in Q4 and also in Q1.
Speaker 4: As I expect from an inventory standpoint, as we work through both from a wholesale and from a direct to consumer, to have about 120 days of inventory on hand going forward. That's our target. So as we look to get to the end of the year, that's what I expect to end of the year, is around 120 days of inventory on hand.
Speaker 4: As far as cash standpoint, obviously with our inventory position we do believe this will be a healthy cash generating year. We always expect to have free cash flow. This year won't be any different. But where we are starting from an inventory position, I think that this will be a strong cash year as we work through this inventory level.
Speaker 5: Megan, your line's now open. Please go ahead.
Speaker 8: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. You know, I just had a related follow up on some of the previous questions. John , I think it makes a lot of sense that there were clearly differences this holiday season versus last year. But, you know, you talked to continued pressure on DTC. It seems like DTC could be down if wholesale is 25 percent. So maybe how would you take a step back and diagnose the difference in consumer behavior and demand?
Speaker 3: first is, you know, what are we seeing and how we're thinking about DTC as an overall business this year versus last. I think that we have it pegged more as a flat year for DTC and I think it's a combination of kind of both things that you maybe alluded to. The first is just.
Speaker 3: a normalized post COVID environment where, you know, obviously consumers have, you know, aren't stuck at home and are now, you know, able to make a choice in the way that they're shopping and so we're seeing normalized behavior there. I think you couple that with just the overall macro environment that we've been talking about pretty heavily and you've been hearing from other brands as well.
Speaker 3: and because of the growth in wholesale and our wholesale partners bringing new sets of eyeballs. And I think that this is a really important point for us to make is what we're seeing early with this wholesale surge is that it's not just that we're shifting from selling online to selling in stores it's that our retail partner
Speaker 6: Could you remind me the second part of your question?
Speaker 8: Yeah, just should we expect that long-term wholesale penetration to be more like 25%? Or do we? Yeah, we expect that long-term wholesale penetration to be more like 25%!
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a good question. Right now, we're saying in 23, just based on the line of sight that we have, that we could see it going up to 25%. I think as we look longer term, I don't know for sure. I don't know if we should continue to expect it to be 25%. I think what's important is that we continue to see it going up to 25%.
Speaker 3: to continue to emphasize is that the profit, the overall adjusted EBITDA that we see, whether it's coming from wholesale or from DTC is very similar. So as you roll it forward to future years, whether it was 25 or whether it's 20% from a wholesale perspective, the profit outlook and profit dynamic of the business overall is unchanged.
Speaker 8: But for right now, I'd say 25% is what we have line of sight to, and I'd say that's what we're forecasting in the business. Okay, that's helpful. And then maybe a follow-up for summer. How should we think about getting back to 20% EBITDA margins? Has the timing or components around your thinking changed there at all? It seems like customer acquisition costs have stabilized. You'll get the full freight benefit beyond, you know, that wraps into 24%.
Speaker 4: or should we still think about that in 20% in kind of the 24 to 25 time period? Yes, yeah, I think we're on track. I think you're going to see, you know, us make the steps. We said it was going to take two to three years. You're going to see steps in 23 and in 24, but we still have line of sight to the 20% and we do expect that within two to three years.
Speaker 4: getting the leverage, getting the leverage. You mentioned that marketing spend kind of hit its peak kind of mid-year last year, we've started to see that normalized. But yeah, we see line of sight to 20% and we expect to be back there in two to three years. Awesome, thank you very much.
Speaker 5: Our next question is from Brian from Canaccord Genuity.
Speaker 6: Brian , your line is now open. Please go ahead. Good morning guys. Congrats on the strong results. Can you provide some more color on the wholesale strength in Q4 and how should we think about wholesale growth in 2023? If you hit the midpoint of your sales guidance at a 25% proportion, it implies a pretty significant growth.
Speaker 6: Are you getting deeper with current partners, expanding with new partners or both? Does Costco play a much bigger role here?
Speaker 3: Thanks, Brian . And good morning. Good question. So overall, I'd say that it's more of an emphasis around going deeper with existing partners. Costco is an existing partner, so definitely going deeper with Costco is an exciting opportunity for us. But we're going to continue to be thoughtful and careful in the way that that looks. So …
Speaker 3: It's just not, certainly not a, you know, all of our eggs are in a single partner's basket, and that includes Costco. So we're forecasting and have line of sight to healthy growth with Costco specifically, as well as with the rest of the partners that we already have in the till. So excited about the opportunity.
Speaker 6: nice healthy growth on the wholesale side and then some nice growth in international that kind of round out the overall forecast for the business for us. Great. And then secondly, I mean, clearly the wholesale proportion is a lot higher than many of us had envisioned even one to two years ago. When you talk about what drove the decision to increase the penetration.
Speaker 3: we were doing our data work that we were bringing new sets of eyeballs through our retail partners and we really liked that. So we liked that we were able to attract a customer base that we weren't reaching with our online DTC business. And then secondly, the financial profile of our wholesale business compared to DDC.
Speaker 3: and especially what's happened overall with the cost of just digital marketing in general and how that's become basically the same profile from a profit standpoint, has made it easy for us to start leaning into and saying, gosh, if we can drive a new customer through
Speaker 3: through wholesale and generate the same level of profits that we do through DTC, then this is definitely something we should be looking at, especially if they're bringing us new sets of eyeballs or new customers that we're not reaching online. You put those two things together and I think you've got a pretty Good day!
Speaker 3: a pretty good strategy, a sound strategy. But I'd also say that we continue to really believe in and value the relationship directly with the customer. So one of the things that you'll see with us with wholesale that may be differentiated is a very deliberate and intentional strategy.
Speaker 3: that drives a new customer acquisition through a wholesale partner, but still encourages them through a variety of message to come back to our site and make a purchase for a follow-on accessory or an additional item, that then allows us to have a direct relationship with the customer as well. So,
Speaker 3: We really like our strategy here. I think that there are more abilities than we initially thought. I think we were less excited about wholesale in the past because we were so focused on that customer relationship. And we've learned and worked together with our retail partners to find ways to drive customers back to our site that have also given us a lot more comfort. So.
Speaker 3: It's probably all three of those things, the ability to direct customers back to our site, the overall profit profile, and the new eyeballs that retailers are bringing to us that are getting us excited and really have caused this shift between our focus on DTC and our willingness to have a bigger portion of our business come to wholesale.
Speaker 5: Thanks, Brian .
Speaker 5: As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by 1 on the telephone keypad.
Speaker 5: Our next question is from Jason Bender from Citi. Jason, your line is not open. Please go ahead.
Speaker 1: Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. John , maybe one for you. Clearly, you've had a ton of innovation in Solo Stove brand this year between Pi and Mesa Tower, you name it. Can you maybe flesh out for us how these new products, during which it sounds like they're doing well, versus...
Speaker 3: healthy amount of our overall business come from new products last year, but by far the vast majority of that business from 2022, what came from our core products. We still believe from a penetration rate standpoint, we're talking about particularly at SoloStove, having reached.
Speaker 3: roughly 2 million customers at just solo so, and having a market opportunity we think is well north now with Mesa, especially in the pizza ovens is well north of 84 million households, just domestically not counting our international business. So where we are in terms of our life cycle and what our addressable market is, we just think there's still tons of room.
Speaker 3: for us to grow overall. But that's particularly solo stove, and I'd say that the other brands are continuing to do well. Chubbs had a phenomenal year last year. They're going to continue their momentum into 2023.
Speaker 3: While there is lots of innovation at Solo Stow specifically as a brand, we saw similar innovation and a decent amount of it across the other brands. You saw with Chubbies launching longs or pants, a variety of new colors and styles that came out from the Chubbies brand. I.O., which we've talked about on prior calls, launched the switch, which is the…
Speaker 3: the paddleboard that converts to a sit-down kayak. There's just a lot of opportunities from an innovation standpoint across all the brands. You'll see more of that this year. I think I'd reiterate as well, something that I've said in the past about new products, just overall life-cycle in your products or launch timeline. But generally,
Speaker 3: it takes 12 to 14 months or so for us to really realize the ramp up cycle of a new product. And so, again, Mesa launched September . We haven't even last a year yet on high. So those are going to be continual momentous products from a growth standpoint for us as we continue to launch the newness of 2023.
Speaker 1: on top of that. So overall, though, core business is solid, and we're continuing to see adopters, and we're very early in our story. So the runway out in front of us for our core FireFit product is still very strong. Great, thanks for that, Keller. And then just on the M&A side, the stock, obviously, is where it is, and you've talked about that in the past and how you think about that as a funding source. But given the borrowing capacity you have and you sounded perhaps a little bit more open to exploring acquisitions.
Speaker 3: that are in a position where they may be looking a little bit harder than maybe they were a year ago. And so we think that there are going to be great opportunities in the coming months or years for potential acquisitions that really fit nicely into solo brands.
Speaker 3: And then I just reiterate what Summer was just talking about around cash generation and how we're viewing 2023, particularly with our inventory position, our ability to turn that inventory to cash. You alluded to our credit line or our access to cash through our facility. So we're in a strong position from a liquidity standpoint, a cash position, to take advantage of and be opportunistic of.
Speaker 3: at that standpoint on the business, we think is a really strong place to be in this environment with how many companies are probably gonna be available on the market.
Speaker 5: Super. Thanks so much. We currently have no further questions. I will now hand over back to John Meri's four final remarks. Please go ahead. Great. Well, thank you all for being with us this morning, and we look forward to seeing you again soon.
Speaker 5: completing our Q1 and obviously being back with everyone here in a couple months to report on first quarter. So thank you all and have a great week. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.