Q4 2022 GrowGeneration Corp Earnings Call

Speaker 1: So have.

Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to Grow Generation's fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings conference call. My name is JP and I'll be coordinating your call today. Following the prepared remarks, we will open the call to question from analysts with instructions to be given at that time. I'll now hand the call over to Clay Crambliss with ICR.

Speaker 3: Thank you and welcome everyone to the Grow Generation fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings results conference call.

Speaker 3: Today's call is being recorded. With us today are Darren Lampert, co-founder and chief executive officer, and Greg Sanders, chief financial officer of Grow Generation Corp.

Speaker 3: You should have access to the company's fourth quarter earnings press release issued after the market closed today. This information is available on the investor relations section of GrowGeneration's website at ir.growgeneration.com.

Speaker 3: Certain comments made on this call include forward looking statements which are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the private securities litigation Reform Act of 1995

Speaker 3: These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs concerning future events and are subject to several risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements.

Speaker 3: Please refer to today's press release and other filings with the SEC for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

Speaker 3: During the call, we'll use some non-GAAP financial measures as we describe business performance. The SEC filings, as well as the earnings press release, which provide reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, are all available on our website.

Speaker 3: Following our prepared remarks, we will take questions from research analysts.

Speaker 3: We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you have additional questions, please re-enter the queue and we'll take them as time allows. Now I will turn the call over to our co-founder and CEO , Darren Lampert.

Speaker 4: Thank you, Clay.

Speaker 4: play. And good afternoon, everyone.

Speaker 4: Thank you for joining us today to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results and our full year 2023 guidance.

Speaker 4: As always, I want to thank each one of our employees, of course our company, for your continued support of Progen.

Speaker 4: As always, I want to thank each one of our employees across our company for your continued support of Progen. The last year has been extremely challenging.

Speaker 4: But I along with the rest of the executive team

Speaker 4: Appreciate your continued hard work and dedication to our vision.

Speaker 4: continued hard work and dedication to our vision and strategic plan.

Speaker 4: Regardless of the market challenges,

Speaker 4: throughout the year.

Speaker 4: and really over the last three years since we entered the pandemic.

Speaker 4: The team has been steadfast in executing our business model.

Speaker 4: I commend our entire team for stepping up to every challenge that has come at us over this time period.

Speaker 4: We are pleased that our full year 2022 net revenue will be increased by the end of 2021.

Speaker 4: of $278 million was in line with our previously communicated guidance range.

Speaker 4: We are also encouraged that our efforts in 2022, to the right side of the business, are starting to show in our financial results.

Speaker 4: And we are optimistic at the work we're doing.

Speaker 4: is putting GroGen in a significantly better position going into 2023.

Speaker 4: Further, for the first time in seven quarters.

Speaker 4: We believe GrowGen will see sequential revenue growth in Q1 2023 versus Q4 2022.

Speaker 4: In addition

Speaker 4: We believe that gross margins will normalize in the mid to high 20s, beginning in Q1 of 2023.

Speaker 4: In 2022, we invested in our storage product portfolio.

Speaker 4: supply chain, technology, and other strategic initiatives.

Speaker 4: as part of our long-term strategy.

Speaker 4: long-term strategy to enhance profitability.

Speaker 4: In the fourth quarter, we added three members of senior management in the hydroponics industry.

Speaker 4: we added three members of senior management in the hydroponics industry. In the areas of commercial sales,

Speaker 4: supply chain, and product development.

Speaker 4: We also have significantly increased our volume of our private label products, driven by our drip hydro and char core brands.

Speaker 4: Private label accounted for $26 million of retail and e-commerce sales in the full year 2022, which is around 12% of our overall retail and e-commerce sales.

Speaker 4: growing 6% year over year as a percent of sales.

Speaker 4: Our team also continues to make advancements in our supply chain through the expansion of our distribution centers and fulfillment hubs, which now total eight locations.

Speaker 4: with our newest center in Columbus, Ohio.

Speaker 4: expected to be operational before summer.

Speaker 4: So that is the backdrop.

Speaker 4: Our day-to-day strategy is generally the same since we last spoke.

Speaker 4: We remain hyper focused.

Speaker 4: remain hyper focused on controlling costs and generating cash.

Speaker 4: We made significant progress in 2022.

Speaker 4: While some of these efforts have come at the short-term expense of our gross margins,

Speaker 4: especially in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 4: We firmly believe these decisions are putting Grojet in a better place.

Speaker 4: to be stronger and more nimble than ever before.

Speaker 4: It's important to reiterate that Grow Gen remains on solid financial footing.

Speaker 4: We have a strong balance sheet and we don't anticipate the need for external debt or equity issue.

Speaker 4: We ended the 2022 fiscal year with $72 million of cash and cash equivalent and marketable securities.

Speaker 4: End of the 2022 fiscal year with $72 million of cash and cash equivalent and marketable securities and no debt on our balance sheet.

Speaker 4: representing a sequential increase of $1 million in our net gas position since the end of the third quarter of 2022.

Speaker 4: This marks the second consecutive quarter that we have grown our cash balance.

Speaker 4: despite the incredibly challenging industry conditions.

Speaker 4: Now, I'd like to provide a brief overview of some of our key business initiatives.

Speaker 4: throughout 2022.

Speaker 4: and how we see those going forward in 2023.

Speaker 4: We recognized the need early last year to focus our organization.

Speaker 4: on clock control, door consolidation.

Speaker 4: consolidation inventory reduction

Speaker 4: and catch generations.

Speaker 4: In 2022, we reduced inventory by 28 million compared to the end of 2021.

Speaker 4: including a sequential $12 million reduction.

Speaker 4: in the fourth quarter from the end of the third quarter.

Speaker 4: These inventory reductions have generally occurred at discounted prices.

Speaker 4: which clearly pressured our gross margins.

Speaker 4: gross margins in 2022.

Speaker 4: So we believe it was the prudent thing to do as we optimized our working capital base.

Speaker 4: and prioritize cash generation.

Speaker 4: prioritize cash generation and balance sheet preservation.

Speaker 4: partially upsetting the negative impact of our gross margin contraction.

Speaker 4: We made significant progress right-sizing our defense structure in 2022.

Speaker 4: We made the difficult decision to reduce our payroll base by a total of $12 million throughout 2022.

Speaker 4: In terms of our store footprint, we made considerable progress eliminating market redundancy.

Speaker 4: and overlaps by closing eight stores in total for 2022.

Speaker 4: We also continue to expand into markets where we see long-term value.

Speaker 4: opening five new stores and included four new states where we didn't previously have retail operations.

Speaker 4: These new locations, including Virginia and New Jersey stores, were added as Grow Generation, hydroponic and garden center.

Speaker 4: which we think represents an opportunity.

Speaker 4: and provide a broader in-store product assortment that should allow us to increase store traffic and productivity by attracting new customers.

Speaker 4: In that we reduced our store count by three stores and ended the year on December 31st with 59 locations in operation.

Speaker 4: We expect these initiatives in 2022 to continue benefiting our company well into 2023.

Speaker 4: including cost-saving flow through.

Speaker 4: from store consolidation, reduced payroll expenses.

Speaker 4: improved shipping costs and declining ocean freight rates, reduced headwind from inventory discounting on our margins.

Speaker 4: and a greater percentage privately will fail.

Speaker 4: This will all have a positive impact on adjusted EBITDA dollar generation and margins.

Speaker 4: Going forward, we expect to continue seeking out acquisitions.

Speaker 4: in white space markets where we think it makes sense.

Speaker 4: We will also continue product development around our key brands and private label offerings.

Speaker 4: We're focused on monetization of our 1 million square feet of retail space.

Speaker 4: including merchandising and product education with key partners, and a laser focus on execution of the various business transformation initiatives.

Speaker 4: centered around supply chain and enhancing our customer journey.

Speaker 4: Progen is a unique, highly differentiated retailer. We are the leader in a large, fragmented market.

Speaker 4: Our customers have a passion for a GrowPro lifestyle.

Speaker 4: Rojen is more than just a retailer.

Speaker 4: We are a developer of market leading brands and private label products.

Speaker 4: We are distributors supporting the entire hydroponic growing community.

Speaker 4: And we are above all a passionate and dedicated partner to our customers.

Speaker 4: We live our mission in value and our culture defines our relationship with our customers.

Speaker 4: We'll be celebrating our 10th anniversary in a year. As we begin the new year ahead, we take great pride in our past.

Speaker 4: We were equally excited about our future.

Speaker 4: Turning to Guidance for Full Year 2023.

Speaker 4: We expect next revenue in the range of $250 million to $270 million.

Speaker 4: translating it to adjusted EBITDA in the range of a $4 million loss to a $1 million profit.

Speaker 4: As part of that, in the first quarter of 2023, we expect net revenue in the range of $55 million to $57 million.

Speaker 4: translating into Jap did Ibadak in the range of a $2 million loss to a $4 million loss.

Speaker 4: With that, I will turn the call over to our CFO , Greg Sanders.

Speaker 4: Thank you, Darren, and good afternoon, everyone. First, I will address our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results, and then I will discuss our preliminary outlook for the 2023 fiscal year. Starting with our fourth quarter results.

Speaker 4: Grow generation generated revenue of $54.5 million versus $90.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2021, representing a decline of approximately 40%. Our same store sales for the fourth quarter 2022 were $34.3 million compared to prior year sales.

Speaker 4: of 71.4 million, representing a 51.9 percent decline against the comparable year ago quarter.

Speaker 4: Our e-commerce revenue declined on a comparable base from 7.7 million to 3 million.

Speaker 4: Our distribution and other revenue was $13.5 million for the quarter, compared to $4.6 million in the year-ago period, representing an improvement of 195%.

Speaker 4: Growth profit margin was 17.6% for the fourth quarter of 2022, down approximately 830 basis points sequentially from the third quarter of 2022.

Speaker 4: Gross profit dollar generation in the fourth quarter decreased 7.9% from the prior year, which includes the addition of gross profit from acquisitions of HRG, MMI, and St. Louis Hydro in the trailing 12 months.

Speaker 4: The company sold over $12 million of overstocked and aged inventory in Q4 clearance events that we estimate resulted in a total gross margin degradation of 332 basis points.

Speaker 4: Further, the company increased its inventory reserves by over $2 million in the quarter, which had a 379 basis point impact.

Speaker 4: The combination of these two strategic initiatives resulted in a one-time margin reduction of 7.1%.

Speaker 4: Our Q4 strategic initiatives to further right-side the inventory of the business are largely complete as of December 31st, 2022, and better position the company as we move into 2023.

Speaker 4: Store operating costs and other operational expenses declined sequentially from the third quarter. Overall, store operating expense declined from $14.5 million in Q1 to $13.8 million in Q2 to $13.6 million in Q3, finally to $12.8 million in Q4.

Speaker 4: The savings recognized throughout 2022 were primarily attributed to payroll reductions.

Speaker 4: we anticipate further cost decreases to continue into 2023, resulting from the execution of store consolidations in the latter half of 2022.

Speaker 4: Selling, general, and administrative, or SG&A costs, were $8.6 million in the fourth quarter, of which $1 million was derived from stock-based compensation.

Speaker 4: This compares to $8.8 million in the third quarter with $1.3 million of stock-based compensation. This represents a 2.3% improvement quarter over quarter to SG&A.

Speaker 4: Depreciation and amortization of intangibles was 4 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to 4.1 million in the year-ago period.

Speaker 4: Compared to the fourth quarter last year, SG&A expense decreased $2.8 million in the same period of 2022, with overall savings driven from payroll reductions and increased cost controls over a broad range of categories. Income tax in the fourth quarter was a benefit of $248,000.

Speaker 4: of 4.1 million or negative 7 cents per share for the comparable year ago quarter.

Speaker 4: Adjusted EBITDA, which excludes interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and share-based compensation, was a loss of $10.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to a loss of $1.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. We estimate this quarter's adjusted EBITDA loss.

Speaker 4: includes roughly $1 million in expense associated with the closure and consolidation of our Las Vegas, Compton, and Katahdin locations and nearly $4 million associated with the inventory cleanup measures taken in the fourth quarter. These areas of execution were strategic initiatives

Speaker 4: taken to position the company for 2023.

Speaker 4: Cash generated from operations in the quarter was $2.6 million, primarily attributed to the reduction in inventory and additional measures taken to strengthen the balance sheet.

Speaker 4: Now, I will provide a quick overview of our results for the full year 2022.

Speaker 4: Net sales were down 144 million for 34%, 278 million and 422 million in the full year 2021.

Speaker 4: Gross profit for the full year 2022 decreased by $48 million to $70.2 million and gross profit margin was 25.3% in 2022 compared to 28% in the full year 2021.

Speaker 4: As Darren mentioned earlier, we have taken a number of steps throughout the year to right-size operating expenses and reduce our selling, general, and administrative expenses.

Speaker 4: faced by roughly $20.7 million through operational rationalization, workforce reduction, and tighter day-to-day expense controls. Related to the balance sheet, as of December 31st, 2022, the company had total cash...

Speaker 4: cash equivalents, and marketable securities of 71.9 million. Within working capital, the company reduced inventory by 28.4 million, partially offset by a $2.6 million increase in high credit worthy accounts receivable. We also invested approximately $9 million for payments associated with the company's annual annual payments. We also invested approximately $2.6 million

Speaker 4: I will now discuss our guidance.

Speaker 4: for the full year 2023. We expect full year 2023 revenue to be between 250 and 270 million in full year adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of a $4 million loss to a positive $1 million profit.

Speaker 4: Our updated guidance assumes quarter-over-quarter improvements in Q1 of 2023, and further revenue and profitability improvements continuing into the second and third quarters of 2023.

Speaker 4: The improvement in adjusted EBITDA expectations is primarily driven from the execution of our 2022 reductions to payroll, our 8-store closures, and our inventory optimization efforts.

Speaker 4: We expect gross margins to normalize into the mid to high 20s in the first quarter of 2023. On a comparative basis to the fourth quarter, management expects modest improvements in revenue in Q1 of 2023, which would be the first quarter of recorder improvement to revenue since the second quarter of 2021.

Speaker 4: We expect operating expenses to be controlled and sequentially down in the first quarter as we recognize additional cost improvements from our strategic initiatives.

Speaker 4: We are positioning the company and executing our business strategy to focus on cash from operations and EBITDA improvement.

Speaker 4: As we mentioned earlier, we expect that our headcount reductions are largely complete and the heavy lifting to correct our inventory position was mostly concluded in the last two quarters of 2022.

Speaker 4: With that, I will turn the call back over to Darren for closing remarks. Thank you, Greg.

Speaker 4: Before we open the line for your questions.

Speaker 4: I want to reiterate that while 2022 was a challenging year for everyone in the cannabis value chain, GrowGen remains focused on the areas of the business that we can control. We continue to make strong gains against our priorities.

Speaker 4: drive cost control, consolidate stores, reduce inventories, and improve profitability while preparing to capture the many growth opportunities that lie ahead, all of which we expect to drive incremental benefits in 2023. We remain committed to the expansion of our proprietary and distributed brands.

Speaker 4: We are very satisfied with the results of our private label products.

Speaker 4: including Charcor and Drift Hydro. The addition of MMI strengthens our position.

Speaker 4: to gain indoor vertical cultivation projects with their leading benching and racking systems.

Controlled environmental agriculture and sustainable ag are only in the development stage and we believe that more companies will invest in sustainable indoor vertical farms for local production of leafy greens, tomatoes, fruits, and other food products. To close,

While we expect a degree of continued uncertainty in 2023, and we are not planning for an imminent turn in the cannabis cycle, we remain nimble and well prepared for a turnaround when it happens.

Thanks to proactive management of the business in 2022, we believe GrowGen is on solid financial footing with a solid balance sheet, healthy liquidity, and a solid cash position.

Thank you for your time today and thank you for your interest in grow generation. We will now take your questions.

today and thank you for your interest in grow generation. We will now take your questions. I Happy for questions.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now conduct a question and answer session. If you have a question, please press star followed by the number one on your touch tone phone. You will hear a one tone prompt acknowledging your request. Your first question comes from the line of Mark Smith from Lake Street Capital. Your line is now open. Hi, guys. First question is really around inventory. You did a good job getting those.

So we reduced inventory 28 million in the year, 22 million in the last two quarters of the year. At this point in time, we're carrying 77 million in inventory as we concluded the year. We believe that the volume of inventory that we have is appropriate for the business on a forward-looking basis. Our inventory isn't crap.

completely perfect, but we think it's in a very good position at this point with all of the efforts that we've taken, primarily over the last two quarters. We don't expect any major changes in our inventory volume as we move forward.

Excellent. And then just following up on that, can you talk a little bit about kind of the mix of consumables versus more kind of capital equipment? You know, and Darren, at the end, you talked a little bit about, you know, we're maybe not, you know, seeing improvement yet in the industry. But, you know, are you seeing signs of that and, you know, your guidance for the year to setting?

So when you look at the tremendous reduction, you're really looking at the lighting side, the D-use side, and the products that we use in build-ups. We've kept our inventory up on the consumable side. Those are products that our customers need on a weekly, daily basis.

So we've kept that to a point where we're very comfortable When you when you unpack the second parts of the question, you know we have been grinding around the bottom for the last, you know, probably for the last three to four months and March is the first month that we are starting to see some upticks We're starting to see more bidding out there on commercial products back east

And we are seeing stabilization. You know, we have consolidated some of our stores around the country. We consolidated it for stores. And we feel that we're in a very good position right now going into 2023. We're seeing stabilization on pricing.

cannabis out in California. That's what we're hearing from our customers. We're also you know we're also hearing out in the California markets that you are seeing starting to see you know the large amounts of supply starting to dwindle. So we're keeping a you know an eye on the outdoor season right now that's coming up in April but we have seen a little stabilization in our business.

Excellent. Good to hear. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Brian Nagel from Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.

Hey guys, good afternoon. So I want to, my first question, and just to basically follow up on that, on that, the question, the prior question. And just with respect to the, you know, the overall industry. So Darren, you're saying you're, you're seeing, we've been kind of grinding along the bottom. Maybe you've seen some side-establishingization here.

So as you look and I know this, we've been talking about the factors and weight upon the industry now for a while. We're supplying a slower licensing because you look at the business now and you look at some of the stabilization. To becoming clearer, whether those factors we discussed were more transitory in nature or has there been a sort of say a recent lower?

the 20% year-over-year compounded growth that people were expecting through the 20s. I don't believe that to be true any longer.

I think what you're seeing right now is an industry that has tremendous potential. But I do believe that you will see slower growth in this industry. You'll see tremendous consolidation in this industry. And I do believe that what you've seen over the last 20 months, you know, there was many reasons for it coming out of COVID.

There was a tremendous amount of capital coming into the cannabis industry that has slowed in the last 20 months and like most industries in the early stages you do run into these issues.

And I think what you're seeing right now is inventories coming down both on the cannabis side of it But also more importantly on the on the hydroponic side of it there was a tremendous amount of hydroponic equipment that was brought into this market to fuel the

the build outs and the feverish build outs that you've seen. And that is slow to a much more normalized base. And forecasting is gonna become much easier for GrowGen as we build out our distribution centers. So we believe that you will see growth in this industry, but I think the hyper growth that people thought you will not see in the future.

That's really helpful. And then I guess the follow up on that is you look at some of the new markets and where you've seen licensed, I guess legalization.

and then subsequent licensing, particularly the east. How would you characterize that initial build-out in those markets versus what you saw in some like the Michigans or Oklahoma's? You're seeing a much slower ramp back east in Virginia markets. It's taken an enormous amount of time to get regulations passed.

but it's also taken an enormous amount of time to get properties built. And one of the issues that you're seeing, Brian , is with the slowdown in the Oklahoma markets and the Michigan markets and the California markets, the capital has dried up. And with the dry up of capital, you're seeing much less building and you're seeing, you're not seeing the race to the start. Now the????? rewarding sportague volunteers, Like it Brand,

what you've seen years ago. So you're seeing a much more controlled build out environment. And I do believe that's what you will see in the future. And we're seeing that in the stores that we've opened. We opened five new stores in four states last year, Virginia, New Jersey, Missouri, and Mississippi.

We're seeing you know, we were seeing stores go profitable first month into builds and we're not seeing that right now You know, I'll be we are seeing ramps in all our stores that we've built but not the ramps that we've seen back in 18 19 and 20

Got it. And then there's one more if I could flip it in back, just more specific to your business. So you close a number of stores.

Got it, and then it's one more if I could flip it in back just more specific your business So you you know you close a number of stores Is you look at the base now?

Is it would there be additional closures or is it basically cleaned out? Employees to grow here follow up to that in the stores you closed I assume those were acquired stores not stores that grow gen opened organically correct That is that is correct Brian

On the other side of that, we still do believe you will see a few more store closures from growth this year, but not anywhere near the pace last year. We're targeting anywhere from one to four store closures this year. And just so you do know, most of our store closures...

come when leases are up and we're not renewing leases. So, you know, the costs have been, you know, pretty tame for store closings. And we have kept, you know, a good portion of business, but not as much as we would have liked from these store closures.

I appreciate all the color. Thanks, sir. Thank you, Brian .

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Terry from Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

Hey guys, why do you expect revenue to increase quarter-to-quarter? Are you seeing something? Can you expand on March? I think you highlighted that. Definitely this acquisition you did is that.

Hey guys, why do you expect revenue to increase quarter to quarter? Are you seeing something? Can you expand on March? I think you highlighted that. Secondly, this acquisition you did is that material.

The acquisition that we've done in March was not material. They're very small acquisitions. But we are seeing a little pickup in business in March, you know, over fourth quarter of last year. And we are going into our seasonally strongest period, which is the second and third quarters.

and what we're hearing from our commercial team, our store team, and our customers is, that business is starting to pick up and we're starting to see it in our consumable side of it, and we are starting to see much more quoting on the commercial side of it, back east and in new markets.

Okay, so this is what you're seeing not necessarily what you're projecting. Just confirmed. It's what we are. Well, you are forgetting, but you're seeing this currently as a point.

Yeah, Chris, and I'll jump in as well here. One of the key reports that we use on a daily basis is our daily sales report. We've seen revenue pick up across the country in Q1 on a comparative basis in our retail markets and that's part of the optimism that we have around the Q1 numbers and improvement.

in the first quarter sales in comparison to Q4. Okay, great, that makes total sense. Just on the daily sales comment that you just made, are you seeing daily sales stabilize and start to pick back up? Is that what you're kind of referring to with the daily sales on a comparative basis? Yeah, exactly. We are seeing improvement in Q1 versus last quarter.

Okay, got it. And then just the final question is, you know, if you could put it all together, you know, why you think this is happening? Is it just because, you know, at some point the market has to bottom and stabilize. You know, how would it, you know, pricing seems to be normalizing. You know, inventory seems to be normalizing. And it's just like you have any theories about why it's happening just in aggregate.

a different man. Chris, we're 20 months into a downturn, into a market that we still do believe, like many, has tremendous potential.

20 months is a long downturn for any cycle. And we are starting to see a pickup in business in March and as we saw in the last couple months. So we're starting to feel a little better about the industry. When you start taking a look and talking with our customers, we have thousands of them.

They're starting to see price stability in the California markets to increasing pricing. They're starting to see Some of the illegal mark some of the illegal growers have gone out of business And we're hearing up to 15% of the market in California has closed. So you're seeing you know a Smaller base of growers out there which brings down as you probably know

you know, supply on the cannabis side of it. So we are starting to see that. We've also seen the same in Michigan. We've seen closures in Michigan. So with that, you're gonna see strengthening from the individuals that are still in business. But one thing that we haven't seen as of yet, you're not seeing money come back into the markets. And we have been extremely diligent.

on lending money to customers ours as we continue to keep our balance sheet you know in tremendously good condition. But we do see right now as our side of the industry consolidates we see tremendous acquisitions out there and we do believe that you will see some of GrowGen this year.

We don't think there'll be any material acquisitions this year. There'll be some smaller ones filling in white space around the country But we will keep Wall Street and you posted on those.

I think there'll be any material acquisitions this year. There'll be some smaller ones, filling in white space around the country, but we will keep Wall Street New posted on those. Okay, sounds good. Good luck.

Your next question comes from the line of Eric De Lorge from Craig Hallum Capital Group. Your line is now open. Great, thank you for taking my questions and congrats on the strong balance sheet management here....

My question is kind of following up on some of these trends that you're seeing. And if I'm understanding correctly, you're seeing, you know, sort of continued weakness in the more durable CapEx products in your business, but seeing, you know, overall, I guess, consumable stabilization or maybe even quarter over the quarter.

midpoint in the year, I guess if you could just sort of flesh out what your guidance implies from a same store sales perspective and then I guess maybe any color between you know durables and consumables within that would be great. Thanks. You know to start with Eric, we don't break down you know the future of both consumables and non consumables.

You know, consumables is our everyday business. That's what we guide to. We also do guide to some non-consumable build-out projects, which we saw very little of in 2022.

So when you look at guidance right now for 2023 and it beds, you know three different divisions of grow gen we do believe we will see growth on our online division this year Versus last year. We also do believe you'll see growth in our commercial division year over year And we do believe you'll see growth in our underlying stores, you know starting in the second quarter of this year

we're still going against some decent comps out of January , you know, out of the first part of last year, which really slows down going into the second quarter of 2022. So we do believe you'll see a

steady rise in decreasing same-sore sales. And we still do hope that you will see a positive same-sore sales number from GrowGen going into the latter part of this year. But at this point, it's just too early to forecast that.

And if you look at our forecast for 2023, we're forecasting increased sales going into the second and third quarter, coming off guidance, which you're seeing at that $55 to $57 million mark in the first quarter. So you will see continued increases, both on an EBITDA basis and also on a sales basis going into the second and third quarters.

And that actually segues nicely into my second question here. So, you know, obviously you guys have talked about guidance kind of assuming a quarter over quarter increase in revenues in EBITDA. I'm wondering if that does extend from sort of Q3 into Q4, you know, sort of, in other words if you're

not expecting to see the sort of normal Q4 seasonality that you have in the past? And if not, could you just kind of expand on perhaps why you do not expect to see that seasonality this year? And then I guess it's just kind of a final one. Does your guidance assume any contribution from this M&A that you've said is potentially likely this year? Yeah, we're great now.

None of our guidance, I mean, our guidance does include any M&A we're doing this year. We also will have some, we'll have a few store closures this year. So basically we look at that as kind of zero out sum. If we do any material acquisitions, which we are not expecting right now, you know, that is not filtered into guidance.

When it comes to the fourth quarter of this year, it's just too early to really forecast on that. But the one thing we feel comfortable with that our fourth quarter same-store sales and sales number will be higher than what you're seeing in the fourth quarter of 2022. We are, again, right now, a little hard to see if we'll see.

you know, we'll seek quarter over quarter growth in the fourth quarter versus the second and the third. Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Aaron Gragie from Alliance Global Partners. Your line is now open. Hey, good evening guys and thank you for the questions.

So first one for me is want to dive a little bit deeper into California. Thanks for some of the remarks that you've had Darren So we've seen a number of active Cultivators kind of come down meaningfully as they opted not to renew over the past six months or so You know down about 1200 about or so So I want to ask if you had any insight in terms of the outlook on that It looks like there are a lot more Renaults coming up in the next six months. We talked about some stabilization of pricing in the state

Do you think there could still be some more trimming of the number of active cultivation licenses? Or do you think that has stabilized as people are seeing some more stabilization within the pricing? Thank you. You know again, it's a very difficult question Aaron. I think a lot of it has to do with financing and really the state of some of the balance sheets of some of these California growers. I think we all know that California is the epicenter of cannabis.

made that decision right now that they'd rather look a couple years down the road opposed to sustaining right now just you know difficult margins and a difficult sales environment in California You know, we are seeing some of our California stores, you know outperforming right now our downtown LA store has been growing our Santa Rosa store right now is

is starting to grow again also. We have seen, when you look at California, much more trouble in the outdoor markets in California. So something that we're keeping a very close eye on going into the spring this year. And we'll make some decisions after we see some of our stores that are very, very second and third quarter oriented.

Okay, all right, great. That was really helpful. And then the second question for me is just on private label. In case I missed it, could you give me a target you might have for this year in terms of private label and then how that might impact you guys reaching the higher low end of the mid to high 20s gross margin guidance? Thank you.

You know, as we said earlier, our private label penetration in our stores online was up from 6% to 12% of sales this year. And you know, we believe that will continue into 2023. One of the interesting parts, we launched Drip Hydro.

you know, in the summer of 2022. So you'll have a full year of growth on drip hydro, which is, we believe, one of the fastest growing, if not the fastest growing nutrient line in the country right now. So we have extremely high hopes for that. We're also doing line extensions on drip and power SI. So you see some new products coming out of these brands that we

that we're very excited about. And the same thing with Charcor. You know, the biggest issue we had with Charcor a couple of years ago was really pricing coming in from India on freight. And we're seeing freight pricing come down, you know, probably 70% in the last year. So Charcor, which we believe is the premium brand in the market right now on the cocoa side, is becoming much more competitive on pricing. And we're starting to see a tremendous ramp in our Charcor brand right now.

And we are coming out with new products continually right now. And we just brought in a extremely talented individual on the R&D side of it. That's going to help our private label penetration in 23 in the future. So, again, we do expect a nice bump, the number we're not sure right now, but we will keep you posted on a quarter over quarter basis.

Okay, great. Thanks very much for the call and I'll jump back in the queue. Your next question comes from the line of Scott Fortun from Roth MKM. Your line is now open. Good afternoon. Thanks for the question. Appreciate all the color and the pricing kind of overall for the industry, but can you focus a little bit more on your ability to continue, you know, what is the.

net ability right now.

You know, I think, Scott, what you're seeing is similar to the, you know, our underlying business, which is the cannabis space. There was an abundance of oversupply on the product side. And with this tremendous slowdown in our industry, and when you look at growth generation, you know, our same sort of sales were down 51% last year.

store closures out there as you're seeing on the cannabis side of it. So you know when industries usually hit bottom you see consolidation and we're starting to see that right now. And again pricing pricing at GrowGen has been pretty normalized this year if you were to take out the tremendous amount of discounting we did on SKU rationalization.

and certain skews that we needed to bring down. And it was really on the non-consumable side of it that GroGen along with many companies, brought levels up when shipping was so difficult coming out of China back during COVID. And many products came in three to six months later.

and kind of came in at that downturn of the market. I think you heard similar comments from Bill Toler over at Hydrofarm the other day, and I think you also heard it from Orthon. So as we all work through inventory, you know, we believe pricing will normalize, but when you look at GroGen,

Our private label products and some of our higher margin products have been doing a tremendous job really masking the tremendous degradation in margins that you're seeing on our sale products to bring inventory down the way we did.

I appreciate that. And then, Darren, you've been through a few cycles here, and we understand the CapEx equipment side, right? That's been obviously dammed and there's very limited capital or production capacity being added here. You know, outside of the states, obviously, that most of those will continue. But help us understand, you know, at some point there's going to be a refresh cycle, right? For for the next couple of years.

cycle. Probably not factoring much in there, but the potential there. Yeah, we believe you will see a refresh cycle, you know, coming up maybe not this year, but maybe the following year. I mean, you still are seeing facilities that are using double-ended bulbs and fixtures opposed to LEDs.

And again, it's all a matter of capital, Scott. You know, Wall Street is shut down. Wall Street is shut down, you know, the cannabis space. And, you know, I do believe, you know, you will see a resurgence. You're starting to even see right now, you know, certain comments that they may be opening up the Toronto exchange up in Canada to get some more liquidity and capital into these companies.

So, you know, there's a lot of ifs. You know, the one thing that we do know when we look into our 2022 sales, you know, the biggest, the biggest degradation in sales that we saw was on the capital equipment side. And we've been pretty vocal about that. We feel tremendously comfortable with the other side of our business.

And that's the higher margin side of the business. So where we stand right now, with our private label products coming out and with drip hydro charcoal and some of the other brands that we're launching into the markets, we believe that our margin profile will be very advantageous going forward into the future.

And we have stayed away from selling used equipment from GrowGen. We've stayed away from the junkyard, and it's just not in our business model right now. It's much more on the lower cost illegal side of it. We're not seeing it going into these legal growers. So it's something that, you know, it's a wonderful, you know, like anything else, marketplace, but it's not something that we're going to get involved with.