Q4 2022 Ramaco Resources Inc Earnings Call
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Speaker 2: 2022 earnings conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star P followed by zero.
Speaker 2: After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.
Speaker 2: To ask a question, you may press star and then one on a touch-tone telephone. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two.
Speaker 2: At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Jeremy Sussman, Chief Financial Officer. Sir, please go ahead.
Speaker 2: On behalf of Ramaco Resources, I'd like to welcome all of you to our 4th Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference call. Thank you for joining us today. We hope you enjoyed this presentation. If you did, please like and subscribe. We'll be back with more information about the new earnings program. Thank you. On behalf of Ramaco Resources, I'd like to welcome all of you to our 4th Quarter 2022
Speaker 2: With me this morning is Randy Askins, our Chairman and CEO , Chris Blanchard, our Chief Operating Officer, and Jason Spanning, our Chief Commercial Officer. Before we start, I'd like to share our normal cautionary statement.
Speaker 2: Certain items discussed on today's call constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements represent RAMACO's expectations concerning future events.
Speaker 2: These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors, many of which are outside of RAMACO's control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements.
Speaker 2: Any forward looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made and except as required by law. Ramaco does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward booking statements. Whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Speaker 2: I'd also like to remind you that you can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that we plan to discuss today in our press release, which can be viewed on our website, ramicoresources.com. Lastly, I'd encourage everyone on this call to go onto our website and download today's investor presentation.
Speaker 2: under the events calendar. With that said, let me introduce our Chairman and CEO , Randy Atkins.
Speaker 3: Thanks Jeremy.
Speaker 3: Thanks, Jeremy. Good morning to everyone and thanks for joining the call.
Speaker 3: The fourth quarter was another challenging quarter.
Speaker 3: Indeed, last year was one of the most volatile market environments the company has faced.
Speaker 3: We experienced two impactful operational setbacks.
Speaker 4: One was set.
Speaker 3: That was the ignition of Berwyn that closed the mine and cost us 20% of our 22 production.
Speaker 3: of Berwyn that closed the mine and cost us 20% of our 22 production. The other was more long-lasting.
Speaker 3: That was the continued logistical and rail performance issues we encountered throughout the year.
Speaker 3: Despite those headwinds, 2022 was easily our best year financially.
Speaker 3: We generated more than 200M and adjusted it.
Speaker 3: It was almost three times higher than 21.
Speaker 3: This is also more than we did cumulatively over the past five years as a public company.
Speaker 3: I can think of no other public coal group that has achieved that level of growth in that short a period and also starting from scratch.
Speaker 3: Looking ahead for 23, our goal is quite simple.
Speaker 3: We want to get back on track and execute.
Speaker 3: This year we hope to print some meaningful increases not only in production, but also in overall processing and sales capacity.
Speaker 3: We will continue to focus on cost reduction.
Speaker 3: And despite a great deal of macro uncertainty,
Speaker 3: This year has already started with encouraging signs in sales and pricing.
Speaker 3: Since we went public, we always spoke about a primary goal of returning capital back to our shareholders.
Speaker 3: We took the first step there in 22 with our first regular phase dividend.
Speaker 3: We promptly doubled that payout amount and recently increased it again last December by a further 10%.
Speaker 3: We expect to discuss dividends again as the year progresses.
Speaker 3: We also have our tracking stock now in registration, which we will discuss once that is permitted.
Speaker 3: But overall, we have tried to design our capital return policies to appeal to long-term investors.
Speaker 3: Simply put, as we grow, we intend to have regular steady increases in the amount of cash headed back to shareholders.
Speaker 3: I'm also extremely pleased that despite a volatile macro environment, our marketing team has booked significant new metallurgic sales since our last update in late 2022.
Speaker 3: If we previously guided, we would tailor our sales strategy to those markets that would yield the best netbacks.
Speaker 3: And with a bias to retaining price optionality.
Speaker 3: We have now done that. Just over 20% of sales this year are committed to traditional domestic steel mills at fixed prices.
Speaker 3: At the high end of guidance, we have 2 thirds of sales priced for export and mainly at floating index pricing.
Speaker 3: Our view is that in this microcycle, index prices will achieve higher margins than conditional fixed prices.
Speaker 3: of our total sales guidance, again, at the high end of the range.
Speaker 3: Again, these tons are expected to be sold for export and at index.
Speaker 3: Summing up our 23 book, we have already placed 1.6 million tons at fixed prices over $200 dollars a ton.
Speaker 3: This nets back to triple digit margins based on the midpoint of our cross guidance.
Speaker 3: At the same time, as I said, approximately 2 million tons or two thirds of total sales will be priced at mostly index-based export business.
Speaker 3: On financial performance, while 22 was a record year, we encountered headwinds.
Speaker 3: First, of course, was the unfortunate ignition at our Berwyn No. 1 mine in July .
Speaker 3: Hampshire and the West Virginia state regulators have recently confirmed that it was probably caused by a lightning strike near its surface mine portal. Fortunately, that mine restarted last week. We expect by the 3rd quarter, Berlin will hit full production from the 1st section.
Speaker 3: We also anticipate Berwyn complex to become the second largest mine complex at over 1.5 million tons once we reach full production.
Speaker 3: into the niche crossover business of selling US Met coal to European utilities. This was for thermal use but at that time priced much higher than Met realization.
Speaker 3: When we concluded a floating deal against the API 2 index in July , the pricing was around $400 a ton.
Speaker 3: Unfortunately, the API 2 dropped by roughly two-thirds during the contract term.
Speaker 3: the API2 dropped by roughly two thirds during the contract term and we took a large hit on that sale.
Speaker 3: We also estimate the litany of rail and logistic issues negatively impacted adjusted IPDAC by an average of 14 million each quarter.
Speaker 3: It was almost like Murphy's Law. We always seemed to get rail delays just at a quarter's end. We are now hopeful that in 23 logistics will return to a more normalized cadence based on what we are hearing from our railroad partners.
Speaker 3: Looking forward, based on simple fundamentals.
Speaker 3: 23 is poised to be a very positive year. Starting in the second quarter and building throughout the year, we have several near term developments, which will begin to impact earnings. 1st is the 1 million ton expansion and processing shipping capacity at the Elk Creek complex.
Speaker 3: which is matched with an increase in production to 3 million tons. Another is the reopening of the Berwyn No. 1 mine.
Speaker 3: Lastly, in the second quarter, we also expect to begin initial production at our new Maven on Tuesday.
Speaker 3: This will be a 250,000 ton per year lowball mine, mined at very attractive coal.
Speaker 3: In 23, at the high end of guidance, we now anticipate a 825,000 ton increase in production over 22. That is a significant reduction in production under the existing standards.
Speaker 3: We also expect a 1 million ton increase in sales, enhanced by the roughly 150,000 tons of carryover coal we did not ship by year end because of rail logistics.
Speaker 3: By the third quarter, we anticipate producing, shipping, and selling north of a 4 million ton for a random run rate.
Speaker 3: This, of course, sets us up for some solid growth in 2024.
Speaker 3: In addition, this year we hope to decrease cash line costs by 5% or about $1 to $2 per quarter.
Speaker 3: as well as have a significant 50 million or 43 percent decrease in capital expenditures versus 22.
Speaker 3: Over the past 18 months, we have made three accretive reserve, royalty, and infrastructure acquisitions.
Speaker 3: At this point, we do not contemplate further acquisitions to reach our optimal level of 6.5 million tons of production over the coming years.
Speaker 3: By fundamentals alone, from adding the additional production, processing, and sales capacity that we expect, we are confident that 23 will be another record year on both net income and adjusted image data. We anticipate sufficient internal cash generation to meet all capital requirements for our production growth.
Speaker 3: We have two main objectives, production growth and a steady increase in capital return on our shareholders. We have three main objectives, production growth and a steady increase in capital return
Speaker 3: With that, I would like to turn the floor over to the rest of the team to discuss more detail on finances, operations, and markets.
Speaker 2: So, Jeremy, please start with a rundown on our financial metrics. Thank you, Randy, I'll start by going over our 4th quarter 2022 financial highlights.
Speaker 2: Adjusted EBITDA of $32 million was up 1% year over year.
Speaker 2: Quarterly net income of 14M dollars was down from 19M in the same period of 2021.
Speaker 2: Adjust the EBITDA was negatively impacted by 4.4M dollars due to idle costs at our Berlin line. Close the July ignition.
Speaker 2: Net income was negatively affected by $4 million.
Speaker 2: On a full year basis, 2022 adjusted EBITDA was $205 million compared to our previous record adjusted EBITDA of $79 million in 2021.
Speaker 2: Adjust the DBA doubt was negatively affected by roughly 9 and a half million dollars of Berlin to idle costs.
Speaker 2: On a full year basis, net income was $116 million in diluted earnings per share worth $2.60.
Speaker 2: These were both up by roughly 190% year on year.
Speaker 2: Our fourth quarter results were negatively affected by extreme cold temperatures compared to expectations set in early December 2022, which caused almost 150,000 tons of shipments to be pushed into January of 2023 due to logistical challenges.
Speaker 2: We also saw a monthly 50% drop in API2 index pricing, which impacted margins on a large seaborne sale to Europe .
Speaker 2: Turning to our full year 2023 outlook, I would like to touch on a few of the key areas in our guidance tables.
Speaker 2: First, we anticipate production of 3 to 3.5 million tons with sales roughly 200,000 tons above production due to the impact of carryover tonnage.
Speaker 2: At the high end of sales guidance, we anticipate more than a 50% increase in year-over-year sales.
Speaker 2: Second, we anticipate cash costs per ton of 97 to 103, which is a roughly 5% decrease from 2022 cash costs.
Speaker 2: Third, we anticipate CapEx of $60 to $80 million down from $123 million in 2022.
Speaker 2: I would note that all of these annual figures are unchanged from the guidance we gave in December . One thing I want to point out is that given the ramp of production and sales expected in 2023, we are giving more granular quarterly guidance than normal. Specifically,
Speaker 2: We expect Q1 production of 625,000 to 700,000 tons.
Speaker 2: and sales of 625,000 to 675,000 tons, with realized pricing of $180 to $185 per ton and cash costs of $103 to $109 per ton. Q1 realized price and guidance as a whole is negatively impacted by roughly $7 a ton.
Speaker 2: due to the final January API 2 index linked cargo. Clearly, we anticipate Q1 to be the lowest quarter of the year in terms of adjusted EBITDA and net income.
Speaker 2: Our production and sales should increase meaningfully throughout the year. On the back of elk creek plant capacity, increasing by 50% in the 2nd quarter. As well as on the back of the return of the burwin mine, which occurred last week.
Speaker 2: We will also initiate production on the Maven Mine in the second quarter.
Speaker 2: We would expect cash costs to decline as production and sales increase due to economies of scale.
Speaker 2: Now, turning to our longer term growth outlook, we are maintaining our medium term target of 6.5 million tons of production.
Speaker 2: I would like to point you to slide 6 and 7 in our presentation. As a reminder, we believe we can get to 6 and a half million tons of production at a very favorable capex intensity.
Speaker 2: I want you to slide 6 and 7 in our presentation. As a reminder, we believe we can get to 6.5 million tons of production at a very favorable capex intensity. Specifically, we believe we can get to 6.5 million tons of production at a very favorable capex intensity.
Speaker 2: For a total of 121M dollars of growth capital split between 2023, 2024 and 2025, we anticipate completing the full build out to 6.5M tons of annual production.
Speaker 2: This is almost triple 2021 production of 2.2 million tons.
Speaker 2: At these levels, we would envision Elk Creek growing to almost 3 and a half million tons. From 2 million tons last year, the Burwin complex as a whole growing to almost 2 million tons from 400,000 tons last year. In the Knox Creek complex growing to more than a 1,000,000 tons from 200,000 tons last year. I would remind everyone that 2022 was peak.
Speaker 2: We anticipate returning increasing amounts of cash to shareholders, while also paying down the majority of our remaining debt this year in order to maintain our strong balance sheet.
Speaker 2: In short, we view Ramaco as both a growth story and a capital return story, which we believe positions us uniquely among our peers.
Speaker 3: I would now like to turn the call over to our Chief Operating Officer, Chris Blanchard. Thanks, Jeremy. As Randy indicated in his remarks, we have had a number of transformational changes in the operations portfolio that have been completed recently or are imminent.
Speaker 3: Most importantly is the restart of the Berwyn mine in just the past several days. The recovery of the mine was completed safely without any accidents to any employees or contractors.
Speaker 3: We want to thank MSHA and the state of West Virginia for their professionalism and working with us to recover the mine and complete our joint investigations.
Speaker 3: We also thank and recognize the efforts of the mine rescue personnel and our own miners who work tirelessly through challenging conditions.
Speaker 3: All of the mine infrastructure has been repaired and all section mining equipment is active and in production.
Speaker 3: During our extended outage, we took several additional steps to upgrade and add redundancies to our ventilation system.
Speaker 3: As a reminder, the accident occurred during scheduled routine maintenance while the mine was idle.
Speaker 3: Although the mine has just returned to production, we are encouraged by the productivity levels reached in just the first few days.
Speaker 3: We have modeled a conservative ramp up of production at the mine. But expect to be back at fully rateable levels by the 3rd quarter of 2023.
Speaker 3: Staying at the Berwyn complex, during the fourth quarter of 2022, we completed the upgrade and modernization of the Berwyn preparation plan.
Speaker 3: We commissioned the plant in November and saw overall immediate cost per ton reduction from the logistics savings.
Speaker 3: As the Berlin mine itself's production ramps, these cost savings will become substantial.
Speaker 3: Given the scarcity of on-road coal trucks, eliminating the haul to our Knox Creek preparation plant also eliminates another logistics problem. Turning to Elk Creek, the 50% capacity upgrade of our preparation plant by up to 1 million clean tons per year is reaching the final stretch.
Speaker 3: We will complete the upgrade in the second quarter and should see an immediate improvement in processing throughput.
Speaker 3: The expansion of production at our mines at Elk Creek, which we put in place during the second half of 2022, have all completed the ramp up periods and are all now operating at full capacity.
Speaker 3: No additional growth capital or hiring will be required at these mines in 2023 to serve the larger preparation plant.
Speaker 3: Importantly, we are seeing the financial impact of the full productivity of these mines.
Speaker 3: All of the 2022 advanced hiring and training of our coal miners is now bearing fruit in higher productivity and lower costs.
Speaker 3: We also continue to work closely with CSX Railroad and are confident that their systems are prepared for our additional trains and shipments from Elk Creek, which will start during the second half of the second quarter this year.
Speaker 3: Finally, we will bring the maven property acquired last year into production early in the second quarter this year.
Speaker 3: Our initial surface and highwall minor production is planned for processing and shipment from the Berlin plant.
Speaker 3: We're excited about the long term potential on the maven property and the high quality of the coals in this reserve.
Speaker 3: We continue to execute our multi-year growth trajectory and our expanding portfolio of mining complexes to ultimately in excess of 6 million tons.
Speaker 3: with today's historically robust pricing supporting us.
Speaker 3: For a deeper discussion of the coal markets, I'd like to turn the call over to our Chief Commercial Officer, Jason Fannin. Jason? …
Speaker 3: Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I will share what we are seeing in the markets in our current and forward sales outlook. As we begin 2023, global steel demanded pricing have rebounded. Global pricing is up to $1100 per ton in the U.S.
Speaker 5: Lead times have extended to eight weeks, which is the highest level since Q3 of 2021.
Speaker 5: Last winter's capacity has started to return, which was idle during the second half of 2022 in the US, Europe , and parts of Asia. China has ended its zero-COVID policy and is instituting growth initiatives, pushing its manufacturing PMI to a 10-year high last week.
Speaker 5: and also in its two-year de facto ban on Australian coals, all positives for kokie coal markets. At the same time, the supply response remains muted due to years-long underinvestment in the coal space.
Speaker 5: Indeed, supplied side tightness remains the dominant driver of elevated pricing for the foreseeable future. Since the start of the year, we have seen coke and coal prices improve 25%.
Speaker 5: Forward curves point to continued strong pricing for metallurgical coal through 23 and 24.
Speaker 5: Exports from the US saw negligible growth during 2022.
Speaker 5: Output is still below pre-pandemic levels. And a year already fraught with real challenges.
Speaker 5: Extreme temperatures in the US in December of 2022 caused even further logistical delays.
Speaker 5: Our partners face many of the same challenges we did during 2022. Particularly on the labor front, we applaud their hiring efforts and service improvement initiatives.
Speaker 5: Our railroad partners face many of the same challenges we did during 2022, particularly on the labor front. We applaud their hiring efforts and service improvement initiatives and continue to see improving performance.
Speaker 5: Looking ahead to 2023, as Randy said, we have focused on attaining index price, export, and medco business to take advantage of what we feel will be a strengthening market as the year progresses.
Speaker 5: Roughly two-thirds of our forecasted sales will be sold into the export market. We currently have committed sales of 2.6 million tons, of which 1.6 million tons are booked at a fixed price just over $200 per net done at the mine.
Speaker 5: with the remaining 1 million tons priced against metallurgical indices. This leaves us with about 1 million tons of unpriced export volume remaining to sell at the upper end of our forecasted sales volume.
Speaker 5: We have also executed on our plan to grow our position with domestic specialty and niche coal consumers. This attractive market now represents over 10% of our forecasted sales.
Speaker 5: Just over 20% of our forecasted sales volume is placed with traditional coke makers in North America. Additionally, we have recently performed our first trial shipment into India with excellent results and strong net bank pricing.
Speaker 5: and are in discussions with other Pacific market consumers for additional near-term test cargos. In line with that, we are now seeing increasing interest from customers in Japan and other Pacific destinations.
Speaker 5: As Ramaco continues to expand production, we view the Pacific market as a long-term strategic consumer.
Speaker 5: especially considering our growing portfolio of low ash, low sulfur, and metallurgical coal.
Speaker 5: which spans the full spectrum of quality, low, medium, and high volatile Coaking Colds. Overall, we like the current market conditions as they apply to Ramaco. We continue to see a protracted imbalance of Coaking Coal supply and demand.
Speaker 5: which is supportive of a prolonged period of elevated cooking coal pricing levels. We also see a Pacific market lacking service supply as their demand continues to grow, providing opportunities for expansion of U.S. market share.
Speaker 5: With that said, I would now like to return the call to the operator for the Q and A portion of the call. Operator.
Speaker 2: Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star and then one using a touch tone telephone.
Speaker 2: If you are using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please pick up your handsets before pressing the keys to ensure the best sound quality. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and 2.
Speaker 2: Once again, that is star and then one to join the question queue. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble the roster.
Speaker 2: And our first question today comes from Lucas Pipes from B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
Speaker 2: Thank you very much operator. Good morning everyone and good to hear about the progress of Berlin. My first question is about 2023 guidance in the context of the delays in Q4. Should we think about a degree of conservatism embedded in the guidance, especially from Q1, again kind of thinking about the times that were...
Speaker 2: stuck at the end of the fourth quarter. Thank you very much for your perspective.
Speaker 2: Thanks Lucas, it's Jeremy here. So I mean, I think Randy mentioned in his prepared remarks that we basically had on average.
Speaker 2: about a 14 million dollar EBITDA impact from carryover tons each quarter. So I mean certainly we hope this trend reverses but I'd say we're taking a bit of a wait and see approach there.
Speaker 3: And Lucas, this is Randy, I would, I would call it a trust and verify approach. You know, 14M dollars per quarter is a pretty decent hit to us. So we're definitely trying to approach this year with a little bit more. Conservatism toward what we expect on. Still, but not enough can be achieved by using Audition! Please just like, subscribe if you have, right! for more content.
Speaker 2: Thank you. And then I may come back to that later in the queue. But for my second question, I wanted to focus a bit on the market and sorry if I missed it. What is the API2 exposure in your 2023 sales today? And then with the strength of the domestic steel market, are you seeing any increased inquiries from domestic steel makers would appreciate your perspective on that?
Speaker 5: see an impact to our Q1 pricing guidance on the back of that. Jason? Yeah, this is Jason on the domestic inquiry. Certainly seeing those pick up in the last, I would say four to six weeks, uh, for additional volumes, um, in Q2 and through the back half, um, you know, certainly, you know, the end step with what we're seeing on the pricing side, the demand side and the lead times there.
Speaker 2: Yes. All right. I really appreciate the caller. I'll turn it over for now. Thank you and best of luck.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Lucas. Our next question comes from David Gagliano from VMO. Please go ahead with your question.
Speaker 5: Hi, thank you for taking my questions. I just wanted to ask about the 24, 25 outlook in the bar charts. It looks like the volumes in 2024 used to be, or last quarter were five and a half, nine times.
Speaker 5: Now it's four and a half nine. Can you explain what's changed in the last three months to reduce the targeted production growth in 2024?
Speaker 3: Sure, so hey David, it's Jeremy, so I'd say right now we're targeting 4.5 million tons in 24, but we certainly have the ability to increase that to over 5 million tons should we pull forward some of the capital projects that we deferred. We'll just kind of see how the year plays out, but the reality is...
Speaker 6: to go for a basis. And I think there's 1.6 million tons of price.
Speaker 6: 200 bucks a ton or something like that and then the account was another million open.
Speaker 6: for pricing. But obviously the shipment volume is 3 point.
Speaker 6: 2 to 3.7 so that only adds up to 2.69. Isn't the rest also open for pricing or is some of this already sold under domestic contracts? Yeah I think Dave this is Randy, I think the million is open tons uncommitted. We've got another million tons that's committed but it's an at index. That gets you to the higher end of our guidance.
Speaker 6: Got it. Okay. I just want to make sure that. Okay. Perfect. Thank you. That's all I needed. Thank you.
Speaker 7: And our next question comes from Nathan Martin from the Benchmark Company. Please go ahead with your question.
Speaker 2: Thanks, operator. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I appreciate the extra guidance for the first quarter as it relates to shipments like 625, 675,000 tons including some purchased coal. Did you guys say you already shipped the 150,000 tons of carryover coal in January ?
Speaker 5: January all be carry over tons were shipped.
Speaker 5: worship and complete it.
Speaker 2: I appreciate that clarification, Jason. And then, you know, the period you guys are estimating domestic sales, you know, about third of shipments this year, around 1.2 million tons, at least for now. And then obviously, that would mean two thirds of shipments going to the export market, which I think will be the largest portion to date. Jason, I appreciate some of the color and prepared remarks.
Speaker 8: now. Thanks.
Speaker 5: Sure, I guess an overarching comment would be
Speaker 5: In slide 12 in the presentation, we have the geographic layout of where our shipments are heading.
Speaker 5: Breaking down your question a little bit there, we have seen increasing certainly interest in the Pacific as that market continues to grow. The challenges we faced last year, I think executing on some of the larger potentials we had at that time didn't occur. So we're breaking into that market now with good success I would say early here in Q1.
Speaker 5: You know, in terms of the breakout, I think Europe will remain probably our heaviest concentration for seaborne sales. Also Brazil as well.
Speaker 5: Where we'll continue to maintain what we do have now and potentially grow that too. So in terms of the index bases.
Speaker 5: I don't have a percentage breakout on each, but I would say the majority will remain off the U.S. coast, the U.S. East Coast indices, and certainly in the Pacific. Most of that business is based on Pacific indices.
Speaker 2: I appreciate that Jason and then maybe coming back to the cost side, a full year come to produce cost per ton guidance maintained $97 to $103 a ton. Down from $105 in 2022 so that's nice. Obviously you guys put that target out there before the recent run up in met indices the last few months. I'll see you soon.
Speaker 9: I'm curious, could you share kind of what net prices you assumed in that range and could there be any pressure if we continue to see prices stay well above $300?
Speaker 3: Nate, it's Jeremy. We generally look at the forward curve based on that range. Obviously, the spot prices stay where they are. I'd probably point you towards the higher end of the range. That would be a good problem to have, of course.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think Nate, even though we've seen a run up in prices, I don't think that we've seen any real increases in cost pressure, you know, in the intervening period of anything. You know, I think to the extent that the there are those that forecast a much more recessionary environment if the Fed continues to increase rates.
Speaker 9: we think that that's at least put a damper on cost increases. Great. Appreciate those comments, guys. And then maybe just on the labor front as well, I mean, I think that was a big piece of some of the cost increases we've seen. Does that moderate a little bit, it sounds like, Randy? Or how are things on the labor front in general? I think Chris mentioned you guys are pretty well...
Speaker 5: do not anticipate adding to that number. And I think also with respect to just wage increases, we expect, as I said, that to kind of ameliorate from the pressures that we got last year, certainly earlier in the year.
Speaker 9: Great. Very helpful, guys. Thanks for those thoughts. I appreciate the time and best of luck in 23.
Speaker 7: Thanks, Nate. And our next question is a follow-up from Lucas Pipes from B-Reilly Securities. Please go ahead with your follow-up.
Speaker 2: Thank you very much operators. Thank you for taking my follow-up question. I wanted to follow up on the rail side. It's been a little bit more mixed recently in terms of commentary about performance. Obviously there have been some tragic incidents recently. I wondered if you could comment on how you see rail performance today for you.
Speaker 2: and what your outlook is kind of over the course of the year, specifically as it relates to rail. Thank you very much.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Lucas, this is Jason. Certainly, just referring quickly back to the carryover tons there at the end of the year, we've seen kind of slow and steady improvement all year long. The right size of labor and the rolling stock to meet the demand. Just a series of unfortunate incidents right at the end of the year.
Speaker 5: Since the start of the year, of course we talked up those shipments very quickly. And I'll say our railroad partners have done an excellent job of keeping trains up against us at all three locations we're shipping from.
Speaker 5: And as Chris mentioned in his remarks, thinking about the rest of the year, we stayed close to both the Eastern railroads there as we're sure about both. One at Berwyn and one at Elk where our expansion is coming this year. And we're very confident in the meetings we've had since last year and going forward here that...
Speaker 5: They're anxious and ready as we are to bring these tons on and get them moved. Again, as Mandy mentioned, we're cautiously optimistic here to come out this quarter, but certainly the cadence is much improved here in Q1 already. The plans are there and the systems are there to make it happen here in Q2 forward. And Lucas, this is Randy. I mean, again, echoing Jason.
Speaker 5: You know, the feedback we've gotten from the rails is a lot of the issues that they had with this last year related to manpower issues. Which they have now stepped forward and have done a great deal of hiring, particularly in the specific market area where the trains are serving us.
Speaker 6: We've seen the stats and so therefore we're hopeful with the additional manpower that they've got that the service levels will improve. Certainly, like anything going to happen overnight, but we think it's definitely moving in the correct direction. That's very helpful.
Speaker 2: any equipment requirements or dependencies to hit the numbers there. Some of your peers have noted really long lead times on the equipment side, and we're looking to follow up on that as well. Thank you very much.
Speaker 5: So Lucas, on the labor front, we do have a little bit of hiring that we'll do to fill a few slots at the Berlin complex, but we're talking less than a dozen miners to hit our guidance at Berlin. The bulk of our hiring that remains this year will be as we ramp up Maybin in the second half.
Speaker 5: and rebuild equipment are have been accurately portrayed as extremely long. Fortunately, we were far enough out in front of that that we don't have any impact this year. And I'll add to that Lucas last year, I can think of at least 2 occasions where we forward purchased equipment. Frankly, an anticipation of production that was going to happen in 2020.
Speaker 8: Thank you.
Speaker 7: And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to the management team for any closing remarks.
Speaker 6: Well, once again, we appreciate everyone being on the call this morning. We look forward to getting together in a few months. And as I said in my earlier remarks, we look forward to executing. Thank you very much.
Speaker 7: And, ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.