Q4 2022 lululemon athletica inc. Earnings Call
Speaker 1: And.
Speaker 1: The for and TR.
Speaker 1: I.
Speaker 1: why hi good the
Speaker 2: Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Lululemon Athletica Inc. 4th Quarter 2022 Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded.
Speaker 2: After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Analysts who wish to join the question queue may press star, then 1 on their telephone keypad. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star, then 0. I would now like to turn the conference over to Howard Tubin.
Speaker 3: Vice President Investor Relations for Lululemon Atlantica. Please go ahead. Thank you and good afternoon. Welcome to Lululemon's fourth quarter earnings conference call. Joining me today to talk about our results are Calvin McDonald, CEO and Meghan Frank, CFO .
Speaker 3: Before we get started, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that our remarks today will include forward-looking statements reflecting management's current forecast of certain aspects of Lululemon's future. These statements are based on current information which we have assessed but by which its nature is dynamic and subject to rapid and even abrupt changes.
Speaker 3: Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business, including those we have disclosed in our most recent filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q .
Speaker 3: Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions as of today, and we expressly disclaim any obligation or undertaking to update or revise any of these statements as a result of new information or future events.
Speaker 3: During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in our annual report on Form 10K and in today's earnings press release. In addition, the comparable sales metrics given on…
Speaker 3: Today's call are on a constant dollar basis.
Speaker 3: The press release and accompanying annual report on Form 10-K are available under the investors section of our website at www.lululemon.com.
Speaker 3: Before we begin the call, I'd like to remind our investors to visit our investor site where you'll find a summary of our key financial and operating statistics for the fourth quarter, as well as our quarterly infographic.
Speaker 3: Today's call is scheduled for one hour, so please limit yourself to one question at a time to give others the opportunity to have their questions addressed. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Calvin.
Speaker 4: Thank you, Howard. I'm pleased to be here today to discuss our strong finish to another strong year for Lululemon.
Speaker 4: As you've seen from our press release, our adjusted Q4 results came in ahead of our January guidance update, and our adjusted foliar results represent a very solid start to our Power 3 x 2 growth plan.
Speaker 4: I am also excited that we continue to see strength and momentum across the business so far in Quarter 1.
Speaker 4: None of this would have been possible without our Lululemon collective, our employees, our vendor partners, our ambassadors and our guests, all of whom are integral to our continued success. I want to express my gratitude on behalf of all of the senior leaders to our incredible teams around the world. Thank you for your ongoing commitment to Lululemon.
Speaker 4: we are ready for all the future holds for our brand in 2023 and beyond.
Speaker 4: On today's call, I plan to cover several topics. Are quarter four and full year results?
Speaker 4: our product pipeline for 2023, an update on our membership program, our recent market share gains, and finally insights across our international business.
Speaker 4: pipeline for 2023, an update on our membership program, our recent market share gains and finally insights across our international business. So let's get started.
Speaker 4: Our momentum continued in Q4, with revenue increasing 30% versus last year and 26% on a 3-year CAGR basis.
Speaker 4: We managed the business very well through an environment that was highly promotional, and our markdowns were only up a modest 40 basis points versus 2019. I am pleased that, as we progressed out of the holidays and began to transition to new spring merchandise, regular price sales returned to our normal levels.
Speaker 4: This speaks to the power of our brand, the appeal of our merchandise assortment, and the strength of our operating model. And as you can see from our guidance, business remains good in quarter one and we are looking forward to another strong year in 2023.
Speaker 4: Our business continues to be well balanced across product category, channel, and region. Revenue increased in Q4 on a 3-year CAGR basis as follows.
Speaker 4: Women's was up 23%, our men's business was up 26% and accessories was up 44%.
Speaker 4: We saw a 10% increase in company-operated stores and our e-commerce grew 46%. And by region, North America grew 24% and International increased 39%.
Speaker 4: When looking at adjusted earnings per share, we continue to deliver strong gains as well, with Q4 EPS increasing 31% versus last year and 25% on a 3-year CAGR basis.
Speaker 4: I would also like to spend a moment on our full year 2022 results.
Speaker 4: As you know, we launched our new 5-year power of 3 x 2 growth plan last spring. At the highest level, this plan assumes 15% CAGR revenue growth and modest operating margin expansion annually.
Speaker 4: In 2022, our revenue increased 30% compared to 2021 and 27% on a 3-year CAGR basis.
Speaker 4: Adjusted operating margin increased 10 basis points while adjusted EPS increased 29% and 27% on a 1 and 3 year CAGR basis respectively.
Speaker 4: It is a testament to the strength of our brand that for the full year 2022, we were able to significantly exceed our annual revenue goal and deliver adjusted operating margin in line with our target. And we achieved these results despite the challenging macro backdrop.
Speaker 4: supply chain issues, and the pressure of COVID-19 in China. Now let's shift to product innovation.
Speaker 4: 2022 was a strong year for product newness and innovation. We continue to expand our core categories with the launch of SenseKnit fabric technology and cold weather run styles.
Speaker 4: We grew our play categories with our golf, tennis, and hike capsules, and we entered a new category with the launch of footwear.
Speaker 4: Looking forward into 2023, I continue to be incredibly excited by the pipeline of innovation developed by our product teams.
Speaker 4: Several of our ideas this year include franchise growth, category expansions, and building upon the success of some recently launched collections.
Speaker 4: First, in the coming weeks we will launch our Get Into It campaign, featuring our popular and versatile Align franchise. As you know, Align began with a single style, a legging, which we grew to be our number one performing bottom.
Speaker 4: We then expanded the collection to include shorts, tanks, and bras, and more recently we added away-from-body styles including wide leg and mini flare. We'll support this product story with an integrated global marketing campaign.
Speaker 4: We will also be expanding our popular men's franchise, License to Train, into women's later this year, which will complement our successful Wonder Train franchise. In men's, we continue to innovate within our core activities with new versions of the metal vent tee and the pace breaker short. Updates to fit, function, and aesthetic have modernized these guest favorites.
Speaker 4: And in footwear, we recently introduced an updated version of Blissfield, which incorporates learnings from the initial launch and it's already receiving the same kind of positive media reviews that we have seen throughout our footwear rollout. In May, we will launch Blissfield Trail, our first road to trail shoe.
Speaker 4: and this summer we'll introduce an updated version of Charge Field. Related to footwear, we are pleased with our performance and guest response. Looking forward, we're excited to continue expanding our offerings for her and also launch our men's lineup in
Speaker 4: These are just a few examples of how we solve for the unmet needs of our
Speaker 4: The versatility of our merchandise assortment is one of the key competitive advantages for Lululemon.
Speaker 4: One thing to add is that we do not drive our top-line growth through discounts or promotions, and we have no intentions to do so. We run a full-price business with markdowns strategically used to clear seasonal and other select product, and this will remain our approach in the future.
Speaker 4: Now I would like to update you on membership.
Speaker 4: We launched our new two-tier membership program in North America this past October and throughout the holiday season, we gained many learnings and insights regarding how our guests engage with our brand. Let me start with our Essentials program, which is offered to guests at no cost. While we do not intend to release this metric regularly, we are not going to be able to get to the end of the program.
Speaker 4: I wanted to share that the number of sign-ups is significantly exceeding our expectations. In the first five months, we have already enrolled more than 9 million members.
Speaker 4: This demonstrates the significant potential behind this program. While the Essentials tier offers several compelling benefits and access to content, no discounts are involved. The rapid rate of sign-up speaks to the incredible loyalty of our guests and the early results show our membership program increases the frequency of guests engaging with us. For example,
Speaker 4: More than 30% of members have already participated in at least one of the benefits of the program, and we expect this engagement to drive retention and incremental purchasing behavior going forward.
Speaker 4: Related to the Lululemon Studio tier of our membership program, we have also gained valuable insights that are informing our next steps.
Speaker 4: As we mentioned in our press release, we are taking an impairment charge related to assets and goodwill associated with Mirror. Megan will share more details with you in a moment.
Speaker 4: As you know, we tested a paid City-based membership program in North America prior to our acquisition of Mirror. Through that experience, we saw how guests were eager to engage with us through some of the sweat options we provided to participants.
Speaker 4: Not only did members enjoy these benefits, but we also saw increased member engagement, new guest acquisition, and an increase in member spend. These learnings were the basis for our acquisition in 2020.
Speaker 4: The recent launch of Lululemon Studio has provided a new way to scale a paid membership program. Our best-in-class content helps build on our community of engaged guests, deepens our connection with them, and drives incremental purchases of Lululemon product.
Speaker 4: In fact, after studying the behaviour of members, our initial analysis suggests that their spend on Lululemon product increases approximately 9%, and this 9% is incremental. However, as you know, since our acquisition, the at-home fitness space has been challenging.
Speaker 4: While members love our content, hardware sales did not match our expectations, and even though our CAC has continued to improve, it has not improved enough to maintain the current level of investment.
Speaker 4: As we continue to invest prudently in this business, we are evolving the model from being focused on hardware only to offering content through a digital and app-based solution as well. The new, more efficient app-based model will launch this summer at a lower monthly subscription rate and when combined with our 9 million in growing essentials members, we will be able to make the most of this product.
Speaker 4: will allow us to expand our total addressable market for potential members. We view LuluLemon Studio in the same way we view any innovation. We test, we learn, and we evolve as necessary.
Speaker 4: Although the acquisition is not fully materialized as originally intended, we are in a much better position in our understanding of the community and our new membership program as a result.
Speaker 4: Shifting gears, I want to speak to the strength of the Lululemon brand and the gains we are seeing in market share. Let me share a few metrics with you.
Speaker 4: When looking at transactions, our growth continues to be well balanced across new and existing guests.
Speaker 4: In quarter four, we delivered a nearly 30% increase in transactions by new guests and more than 35% increase in transactions by existing guests.
Speaker 4: For the full year, these results contributed to a mid to high 20% increase for both metrics.
Speaker 4: Next, I will touch on our recent and continued gain in market share.
Speaker 4: In fiscal quarter 4 2022, the adult active apparel industry decreased its US revenue by 5% compared to the same period last year.
Speaker 4: And over this time period, Lululemon gained 2.3 points of market share in the US, the most of any brand in this market according to NPD Group's Consumer Tracking Service.
Speaker 4: This is the highest quarterly market share gain we've achieved since we began tracking these numbers in 2020, and it caps a year in which we grew our market share every quarter. This speaks to our growth in the U.S., the key market within North America, and, as we detailed at Analyst Day, our growth in the U.S.
Speaker 4: we have significant opportunity to grow our brand awareness in North America and markets around the world. Just since last April , we have seen increases in awareness in some of our key growth regions. We added 5 points to our unaided awareness in Australia, from 19% to 24%.
Speaker 4: two points in China from 7% to 9%, and two points in the UK, taking us to 16% in the market.
Speaker 4: As you can see from these numbers, significantly more consumers in these regions are currently unaware of our brand compared to those who are, which highlights this meaningful opportunity.
Speaker 4: As I mentioned earlier, our business remains strong in both our North America and international markets.
Speaker 4: In quarter four and full year 2022, Revenue North America increased 29%, while our international business generated 35% growth in quarter four and for the full year as well. I would like to turn to our results in China where our potential continues to be significant.
Speaker 4: We have been investing in foundational infrastructure, people and stores that have fueled considerable growth in the market. As the impacts of COVID-19 normalize, we are seeing our momentum accelerate and we are excited for the opportunities in the region in 2023 and beyond. In quarter four, revenue in China increased more than 30% versus last year and over 50% on a three-year CAGR basis.
Speaker 4: While COVID-19 impacted revenue in December , we had a strong finish to the quarter and have seen momentum accelerate in quarter one.
Speaker 4: We have a solid foundation in the region across our brick and mortar and digital channels and supported by exceptional talent on which we continue to build.
Speaker 4: We recently opened our largest store in Asia Pacific, the Cary Centre in Shanghai. It's an incredible expression of our brand, reflecting our commitment to the market. And it now brings our store count in China to nearly 100 locations.
Speaker 4: It's clear our growth strategies are on track and we remain early in our journey across our international markets. With that, I'll now turn it over to Meghan. Thanks Calvin. I'm excited to be here today to discuss our Q4 results. We finished 2022 on a strong note with our adjusted results exceeding the updated guidance we provided in mid-January. This was enabled by an acceleration in our sales trend along with a normalization of our sales trend.
Speaker 5: inventory and cash position.
Speaker 5: Please note that when comparing the financial metrics for Q4 2022 with Q4 2021, adjusted earnings per share for Q4 2022 exclude $3.46 of expense related to impairment charges associated with the mirror business.
Speaker 5: Adjusted earnings per share for Q4 2021 exclude one penny of expense related to the acquisition of Mirror. I will provide more detail on the Q4 2022 impairment chart shortly, and you can refer to our earnings release in Form 10-K for more information and reconciliations to our gap metrics.
Speaker 5: For Q4, total net revenue rose 30% to $2.8 billion. Digital sales increased 30% with a 17% increase in stores and a 39% increase in digital.
Speaker 5: On a three-year CAGR basis, total revenue increased 26%. In our store channel, sales increased 26% on a one-year basis and 10% on a three-year CAGR basis.
Speaker 5: three-year CAGR basis, total revenue increased 26%. In our store channel, sales increased 26% on a one-year basis and 10% on a three-year CAGR basis. Productivity remains above 2019 level.
Speaker 5: We ended the quarter with a total of 655 stores across the globe.
Speaker 5: Square footage increased 21% versus last year, driven by the addition of 81 net new Lululemon stores since Q4 of 2021.
Speaker 5: During the corridor, we opened 32 net new stores and completed 13 optimizations.
Speaker 5: In our digital channel, revenues increased 46% on a 3-year CAGR basis and contributed $1.4 billion of top line, or 52% of total revenue.
Speaker 5: Within North America, revenues increased 29% versus last year and 24% on a three-year CAGR basis.
Speaker 5: Within International, we saw a 35% increase versus last year and 39% on a three-year CAGR basis.
Speaker 5: And by category, men's revenue increased 22% versus last year and 26% on a three-year CAGR basis.
Speaker 5: Women's increased 30% versus last year and 23% on the three-year CAGR basis. And accessories grew 69% and 44% on the same basis.
Speaker 5: It's also great to see ongoing strength in traffic across both channels.
Speaker 5: In stores, traffic increased over 30%, and in our digital business, traffic to our e-commerce sites and apps globally increased over 45%. On a three-year CAGR basis, traffic is up 7% in stores and 40% in e-commerce. This speaks to the strength of our Omni operating model as we engage with our guests in ways most convenient to them. The gross profit for the fourth quarter was $1.59 billion.
Speaker 5: or 57.4% of net revenue compared to 58.1% of net revenue in Q4 2021. Adjusted gross margin decreased 70 basis points relative to last year.
Speaker 5: This was driven primarily by the following factors.
Speaker 5: 50 basis points of deleverage from foreign exchange within gross margin, which was offset by a 50 basis point FX benefit within SG&A, and 50 basis points of deleverage on fixed costs. This was driven primarily by investments in our product teams in DC, offset somewhat by leverage on occupancy and depreciation.
Speaker 5: These were partially offset by a 30 basis point increase in product margin.
Speaker 5: This increase was driven primarily by lower air freight expense, partially offset by higher markdowns and merchandise mix. When looking at markdowns relative to 2019, for Q4 they were up 40 basis points, contributing to markdowns being relatively flat for the full year versus 2019. Adjusted gross margin was favorable to our updated guidance.
Speaker 5: which was a decline of 90 to 110 basis points due predominantly to favorability and markdowns in air freight, in addition to leverage from higher than planned sales.
Speaker 5: Moving to SG&A, our approach continues to be grounded in prudently managing our expenses while also continuing to strategically invest in our long-term growth opportunities.
Speaker 5: SG&A expenses were approximately $803 million, or 29% of net revenue, compared to 30.2% of net revenue for the same period last year.
Speaker 5: The leverage in the corridor versus Q4 2021 resulted from leverage in our operating channels and a benefit from FX I mentioned earlier.
Speaker 5: This was offset somewhat by increased corporate SG&A and a modest increase in depreciation and amortization.
Speaker 5: Adjusted operating income for the corridor was approximately $785 million, or 28.3% of net revenue, compared to 27.8% of net revenue in Q4 2021.
Speaker 5: 2022 and is in line to slightly better than our power 3x2 growth plan. We expect to open 45-50 net new company-operated stores in 2023 and complete approximately 25 co-located remodels. This will contribute to overall square footage growth in the low double digits. Our new store openings in 2023 will include 30-35 stores in our international markets, with a majority of these planned for China. For the full year, we forecast gross margin to increase between 140-160 basis points versus 2022. The expansion relative to last year is driven predominantly by lower air freight expense. For the full year, we expect air freight to be down approximately 150 basis points versus 2022. When looking at markdowns for the full year, we expect them to be in line with last year in 2019. Let me also share some additional detail on our multi-year distribution center project. We began this project in 2022 with the opening of our new Tilbury, DC near Vancouver. For the year overall, this project had a negative 30 basis point impact on gross margin. In 2023, we will continue investing in our distribution network to support future growth. Projects include building a new DC in the greater Los Angeles area and also expanding two of our existing DCs in Columbus and Toronto. Included in our gross margin guidance for the year is 20 basis points of deleverage associated with these initiatives. Turning now to SG&A for the full year, we forecast deleverage of 120-140 basis points versus 2022, driven predominantly by increased investments to support market expansion, improve our guest experience by enhancing our omni capabilities.
Speaker 5: and continuing to make foundational investments to support future growth. In addition, we expect higher depreciation due to current and prior year investments. When looking at operating margin for the full year 2023, we expect it to increase by 20 to 40 basis points versus last year. This would be slightly ahead of our power three times to a long-term target of a modest expansion annually.
Speaker 5: For the full year 2023, we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 30%, an increase over the 2022 adjusted effective tax rate of 28.1%.
Speaker 5: This is in line with our longer-term tax rate expectations we provided as part of our Power 3 x 2 plan and reflects the increase we expect as a result of accruing for Canadian withholding taxes.
Speaker 5: For Q1, we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 30%.
Speaker 5: For the fiscal year 2023, we expect diluted earnings per share in the range of $11.50 to $11.72 versus adjusted EPS of $10.07 in 2022.
Speaker 5: Our EPS guidance excludes the impact of any future share repurchases.
Speaker 5: We expect capital expenditures to be approximately $660 to $680 million for 2023. The increase versus 2022 reflects investments to support business growth, including a continuation of our multi-year distribution center expansion, store capital for new locations, and increase over the course of the course long term.
Speaker 5: relocations and renovations, and technology investments.
Speaker 5: Our range of $660 to $680 million is approximately 7% of revenue, in line with our current power of 3 times 2 target of 7 and 9%.
Speaker 5: Shifting now to Q1, we expect revenue in the range of $1.89 to $1.93 billion, representing one-year growth of 17 to 20 percent. We expect to open 5 to 10 net new company-operated stores in Q1.
Speaker 5: We expect gross margin in Q1 to increase 290 to 320 basis points relative to Q1 of 2022.
Speaker 5: This will be driven by lower air freight expense offset somewhat by strategic investments in our supply chain and distribution centers as well as foreign exchange.
Speaker 5: In Q1, we expect our SG&A rate to deleverage by 60 to 80 basis points relative to Q1 2022, related to the investments I just described.
Speaker 5: When looking at operating margin for Q1, we expect expansion of approximately 200 basis points. We expect earnings per share in the first quarter to be in the range of $1.93 to $2.
Speaker 5: versus adjusted EPS of $1.48 a year ago.
Speaker 4: With that, I will wrap up my remarks and turn it back over to Calvin. Thank you, Meghan. In 2022, we passed $8 billion in revenue for the first time, driven by balanced growth across categories, channels, and markets. Our product pipeline, driven by innovation, is very strong.
Speaker 4: More than 9 million guests signed up for our Essentials Membership Program in the first five months, which further strengthens the opportunity to keep building our community, strengthen our guest relationship, and drive long-term value. Our market share gains show our brand is able to expand and attract new guests and
Speaker 4: and yet our unaided awareness remains low, which demonstrates the runway in front of us.
Speaker 3: and we're seeing strong momentum in every market where we operate and we continue to successfully expand into new geographies.
Speaker 4: These are just some of the reasons I am excited about all that's in front of us, both in 2023 and over the coming years. I look forward to taking your questions now. Operator?
Speaker 2: We may now begin the question and answer session. Analysts who wish to join the question queue may press star then 1 on their telephone keypad.
Speaker 2: You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. The first question comes from Adrian Yee from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Speaker 6: Thank you very much and congratulations everybody for stellar year and great momentum coming into the first quarter. Calvin I was wondering if you can to help expand upon that that notion of unaided brand awareness I think that's a really powerful concept there. What would your advertising spend as a percent of sales last year and what
Speaker 6: What avenues are you going to be using sort of to expand that brand awareness and then Megan really quickly if you can just Expand upon the notion of flat promos. I think you said to last year and 2019 just trying to understand those two comparisons and that is a nice improvement I think from kind of ICR when maybe
Speaker 6: I think we were in a little bit more of a promotional kind of backdrop or notion of promotions coming into the year. Thanks so much. Good night, everyone.
Speaker 4: Thanks Adrian. In terms of unaided brand awareness, as you highlighted, it's exciting to see both our improvements in it, but also the runway of growth and potential we have. So we know that our approach is working as well as we know that it's going to continue to fuel our ability to acquire guests and drive the overall momentum in the business across the entire industry.
Speaker 4: markets including North America and the US. Our current spend is in around the 4% range and at this point we're planning to maintain the percentage of sales relatively consistent. How we deploy it, it's a combination of opening stores which is a wonderful...
Speaker 3: to contributions and add into our collective. And then finally like you will see with the Get Into It campaign, executing more deliberate and coordinated global brand campaigns, which I'm excited for you to see that. Those are just some of the examples the way in which we
Speaker 3: activate our brand and product first through most of the messaging and that we've seen our success and excited for what we have planned in 23.
Speaker 5: And in terms of in terms of markdown.
Speaker 5: In terms of markdowns, our full year 2022 markdowns came in line with 2019, and we're expecting to be relatively flat in 2023 on a full year basis. We do have the biggest opportunity in Q4, which will be offset somewhat by Q1 through Q3 markdowns.
Speaker 6: Great. Thank you so much. All great news. Thank you.
Speaker 1: Thank you.
Speaker 2: The next question comes from Lorraine Hutchinson from Bank of America. Please go ahead. The next question comes from
Speaker 2: Thank you. Good afternoon. I wanted to focus on China for a minute. It was about eight percent of sales last year. How are you thinking about the growth cadence there and can you give an update for us on profitability of the region?
Speaker 5: Hey Lorraine. In terms of China, we haven't put a fine point on China in 2023. However, what I'd say is we still had a degree of COVID disruption in both Q4 and full year 22, and we were at a 30% growth rate.
Speaker 5: We have seen that trend accelerate as we moved out of Q4 and into 2023, particularly Q1. So we are above that 30% growth. And then in terms of profitability, we are profitable in China. We haven't put a fine point on it beyond that.
Speaker 5: we moved out of Q4 and into 2023, particularly Q1, so we are above that 30% growth. And then in terms of profitability, we are profitable in China, and we haven't put a fine point on it beyond that. Thank you.
Speaker 2: The next question comes from Brian Nagel from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Speaker 7: Good afternoon.
Speaker 8: Great quarter, congratulations.
Speaker 8: Thank you. So I just want to, my question, I just want to focus on the inventories because I know that has been a big topic, you know, for Lulu and as well as the sector. So you had fantastic results here in the fourth quarter. I'm looking at the math, you ended the year, inventory's up, I guess just around 50%.
Speaker 8: So as we think about 23, you know, within the context of the guidance you gave, how should we expect that inventory to moderate? And is it your sense of saying you're just going to work through that primarily for the normal course of business without really any excess promotions?
Speaker 5: So in terms of inventory, we've been navigating, you know, obviously the dynamic supply chain environment and we did place a number of core buys earlier to try to manage our air freight expense. We saw a higher proportion of our inventory in core, 45%.
Speaker 5: versus 40% historically. We also saw increased air freight impacting our cost inventory balances and then we also saw vendors who were shipping later than historically pivot to shipping more on time. So the team is still navigating.
Speaker 5: and adjusting to that new reality. And I would say at the end of Q1, we're going to see inventory moderate to 30 to 35% growth and we expect it to come in line towards the second half of the year. Our goal overall is to manage our inventory in line with our revenue growth and believe.
Speaker 8: will be there over time. Great, that's helpful. Appreciate it, thank you.
Speaker 8: Great, that's helpful. I appreciate it. Thank you.
Speaker 2: The next question comes from Paul Lejeuse from Citi. Please go ahead. There is no question about that last question on the board.
Speaker 8: Thanks, guys. I'm curious just to piggyback on the inventory question. I'm curious if you're a little bit heavier in certain geographies versus others and if it's going to take a little bit more time to clear and get to where you want to be in certain geographies. On the flip side, I'd think a little bit about measurement if it's Classroom and then classroom.
Speaker 4: Just separately, here's what you're looking at from a product cost perspective this year, first half, first and second half, if you can share what you're anticipating on the AUC side. Thanks. Yeah, I would say nothing notable by geography in terms of inventory balances. We're pleased overall with the content composition.
Speaker 9: Thank you. Good bye.
Speaker 2: The next question comes from Ike Boruchov from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Speaker 8: Hey, good afternoon. Congrats, everyone. Two-part question, maybe first for Calvin. Just on the Mirror Hardware decision, can you walk us through a little bit more about what you saw in the holiday and I guess the past several quarters that kind of informed your decision that you guys ultimately made.
Speaker 8: to eliminate the hardware piece of the business? And then, Meghan, is there anything you can quantify in the P&L? What kind of revenue or operating losses are being removed by eliminating that piece of the business? That's you. Thank you. Thanks, Ike. On Meer, I just want to clarify, we're...
Speaker 8: without having to purchase the hardware. So just wanna clarify that. And that will launch later this summer. And we think with the lower cost to entry not being hardware restricted and the nine million essential members that we've built and will continue to build, it will allow us to more easily migrate and attract guests in.
Speaker 5: and appeal to a broader audience within our collective. In terms of the P&L, we don't break out mirrors separately given it's now embedded in our membership program. But what I will share is that it's a very small portion of our revenue this year and was also a very small portion of our five-year plan. We have moderated investment levels and will continue to do so and continue to see dilution improving.
Speaker 10: The big increase you mentioned in new guests, I think a 30% level or so. Could you share any learnings you have on how those new guests compare to existing guests? And then secondly, on the 40 to 45% of the business that's core, any insight you can give us on the split of the rest of the business, I guess the newer categories and what they represent?
Speaker 8: and whether they have similar full price sell through rates to that legacy business. Thanks. Well, thanks, Alex. In terms of the new guests, we have one of the benefits of the brand is
Speaker 8: we see good success across guests across all age demographics. So that remains very healthy, both acquisition as well as engagement. We have seen a very healthy growth in our younger guest base, in particular over the past 12.
Speaker 8: in 18 months and that continued. But overall, we would wait a little bit on the younger, but very healthy overall and seeing, as I indicated, very healthy numbers in terms of engagement of existing guests, the new guests, how those cohorts are shopping and engaging on a frequent basis and migrating up.
Speaker 5: it be positioned relative to our power of three times two plan in terms of category growth. Thanks a lot.
Speaker 5: to our power of three times two plan in terms of category growth. Thanks a lot.
Speaker 2: The next question comes from Rick Patel from Raymond James. Please go ahead. Dolores 1964!
Speaker 11: Thank you. Good afternoon and congrats on all the progress. I was hoping you could talk about your expectations for growth in North America for the new year. You've made a lot of progress already in the market, so I'm curious what you see as the strongest growth levers as we think about channels and product segments. You've made a lot of progress already in the market.
Speaker 5: So in terms of North America, we're looking at achieving our low double-digit expectation that we shared as part of our Power of 3 x 2 plan.
Speaker 11: I'm sorry, can you remind me the second half of your question? Yeah, just what the strongest growth levers are as we think about channels and product segments.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I would say I'd frame that also in that context. So, you know, we have our 15 percent average growth rate annually as part of that plan with a goal of four times international business, double our men's business, double our e-commerce business. To do it with an active business person or public transportation person with a developmental or not.
Speaker 5: that also included low double-digit North America growth as well as low double-digit women's and store growth.
Speaker 12: Thanks very much. Thank you.
Speaker 2: The next question comes from Dana Telsey from Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead.
Speaker 13: Good afternoon everyone and congratulations on the results. As you think about the product margin puts and takes for 2023, how do you think about them and the markdowns which are normalized with 2019 levels, how do you see that evolving as we go through the year? Is there any cadence or shape that we should be mindful of? Thank you.
Speaker 5: Thanks Dana. So we shared color of 140 to 160 basis point increase in gross margin for the full year, and that would really be driven by benefit from air freight down 150 basis points. We are expecting markdowns to be flat year over year, also flat to 2019 levels.
Speaker 5: And we have a little bit of pressure, as we mentioned, in our distribution center strategy that's really aimed at servicing our demand over time. In terms of cadence by quarter, I had mentioned earlier we have the biggest opportunity in markdowns in Q4 offset by Q1 through Q3. And then in terms of air freight, our biggest opportunity will be Q1 in the range of 300 to 400 bases.
Speaker 13: gaining share in a category that's a little more challenged now. Thank you.
Speaker 8: In terms of the product, what I'm anticipating is similar to what we've been seeing, which is balanced growth across men's and women's, across categories and activities.
Speaker 8: The innovation, a little bit of what I've shared is a balance of continuing to innovate on our core styles and franchises, like the recent update to the men's metal vent and pace breaker short, as well as adding additional styles to proven franchises like the Align campaign that I'm really energized.
Speaker 8: with the license to train into our women's assortment. So I think it's another expression of the evolution we've had with our product strategy, which is early still, very balanced across the activities we identified, expressed through categories and franchises across both men's and women's. So my anticipation is still very balanced growth.
Speaker 8: both in North America and around the globe for product for us and 23 and beyond.
Speaker 14: Go ahead. Good afternoon, and thank you for taking our question. Calvin, I was wondering if you could contemplate the customer engagement that you're seeing with full price relative to discounted product and how that engagement may have changed over the course of the last few months combined with your expectation for that for the rest of the year. Does that engagement rate differ by region, age, or customer income demographic?
Speaker 5: we do expect that we'll maintain that relationship of healthy full price in line with history. And that's reflected in the color we provided on markdown staying flat year over year also flat 2019, which we view the healthy waterline for us.
Speaker 1: Thank you.
Speaker 2: The next question comes from Michael Benetti from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Speaker 3: Hey guys, thanks for taking a question. I'll have my congrats on a nice quarter and nice update since I see you, Megan. I guess on China, you built a lot of stores there since pre-COVID and I think you've done.
Speaker 3: You know, I think you you haven't had much time over there over the past three years those stores operating in any kind of normal Capacity so if China's 8% of sales, but it's 15% of your global store count I'm just curious if China was operating at normal productivity Would revenues be closer to that 15% store mix or do you think those stores? Any reason to think they should trend above or below global averages on sales per store or sales per foot? Just anything anyway for us to think about the app
Speaker 5: I would say our stores are highly productive there. They tend to be smaller than the balance of our fleet, particularly North America, and we view that as an opportunity over time. We continue to have a long pipeline of store openings there. We also are very early in terms of store expansion strategy, which we've employed in North America.
Speaker 8: to capitalize on where we see very strong and healthy sales per square foot and opportunities to expand a market. And Michael, on pricing, I'll start with what we shared last year, which is going to be similar to our approach this year. And I'll start with I'm proud of the approach that the team...
Speaker 8: What we saw in the industry was many other players price up and then heavily discount that back down. But it allowed us to manage margins, manage full price selling throughout with selective pricing. And heading into 23, it's a similar approach. We're not planning any drastic significant moves in pricing.
Speaker 15: Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Just a couple quick follow ups. Calvin, maybe you could touch on the strategy to use paid media. You know how that's going for you guys, the efficacy. Is that something you're using in other markets like China as well? And maybe a quick update on some of the new categories footwear, hike, golf, etc. would be helpful. Thanks, Greg.
Speaker 8: Great. Thanks Omar. In terms of our approach to media, we'll always and continue to use a balance between paid and earned. And I think we've really made gains in the last few years in leveraging both of those with earned media.
Speaker 8: playing very heavily for us, which is great, on the back of innovation and some compelling stories. So we're gonna continue to leverage both of those, leaning in when we do do paid into digital and more direct and specific, and I think you'll see a lot of that expressed and executed through the.
Speaker 8: get into it a line campaign. And Nicky and the team are also doing a wonderful job working with the regions and getting expression right through to the digital campaign, through to stores and in and around in local markets and amplifying that so it.
Speaker 8: it just really fits and feels like a very omni expression and execution for the guest out of the store, in store, and across digital applications. So excited for you to see that campaign expressed. And your second part of the question was...
Speaker 15: Just enough to get on some of the new categories, footwear, hike, golf.
Speaker 8: Perfect. On the play activities, and I'll start there, they've
Speaker 8: respond, the guests responded very well to them and I'm excited as I've shared with you in particular on tennis and golf how they're designed. We know that that is how our guests also sweat and offering product and offering for them helps us strengthen the relationship and extend our relationship.
Speaker 8: us back as well as about to do so in golf. We're seeing that strategy execute very well where we sell a lot more core wrapped around a golf or tennis execution. We're going to continue to do that. So it allows us to manage assortment and skew additions while at the same point drive productivity.
Speaker 8: and credibility into these activities. And on footwear, it's a test and learn category for us. We've just cycled over the first year, very pleased with early guest response, very pleased with industry recognition to disrupt and innovate and create something new within.
Speaker 8: footwear for women. We've just updated with our Blissfield 2.0 and both the industry is very positive on it as well as our guest. And excited about continuing to sort of test and learn. And as I indicated, we'll be launching a Blissfield Trail later, an update to our Charge Fuel. And then next year in 24, the introduction of our men's...
Speaker 15: Great, thank you for taking my question. Just curious about the sales cadence for the year. Q1 looks like it's around high teens and then it seems like the guidance implies the growth rate goes into the mid-teens range by the end of the year. Just wondering if there's a specific driver that's part of that forecast or if it's just assumed that you go back into the long term, I'll go and then...
Speaker 15: At the same time, just curious about accessories. You mentioned it's up 44% in Q4. Within that, I assume belt bags is a big driver. Calvin, I'm just worried about how you feel belt bags fits into the overall brand strategy and what you plan to do with that category going forward. Thank you.
Speaker 5: Thanks Jay. So in terms of cadence throughout the year we are really pleased with our trend headed into Q1 and we're also mindful of the macroeconomic uncertainty so our guidance reflects what we feel to be appropriate direction at this time. The 15 to 16 percent growth rate for the full year is
Speaker 5: slightly above our PAR 3 times 2 average of 15%. So we feel well positioned headed into the air.
Speaker 8: And on accessories and the Everywhere Belt Bag, our accessories business is very healthy and it's very balanced as well. It's not a one hit wonder. That team has done a great job in building a compelling total bag business.
Speaker 8: not just that one particular item. We're pleased with that one item, love the results. It's been a great driver of brand awareness as well as new guest acquisition. But we have an accessories business across all categories, not just bags, that continue to contribute and grow.
Speaker 8: And we're excited about its opportunity moving forward in our mix of assortment for our guests.
Speaker 8: excited about its opportunity moving forward in our mix of assortment for our guests. Okay, thank you very much.
Speaker 2: That's all the time we have for questions today. Thank you for joining the call and have a nice day.
Speaker 1: And.
Speaker 1: Some J we of.
Speaker 1: I.
Speaker 1: The P never.
Speaker 1: Music
Speaker 1: Tr C that. That was TR that.