Encore Capital Group Inc. Q1 2023 Earnings Call

Speaker 2: Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Encore Capital Group's quarter one, 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a list and only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session.

Speaker 2: To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 111 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 111 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

Speaker 2: I would now like to hand a conference over to you to today's first speaker, Bruce Thomas, the Vice President of Global Investor Relations for ONCE Core Capital Group. The floor is yours, Mr. Thomas. Thank you, operator. Good afternoon and welcome to ONCE Core Capital Group's first quarter 2023 earnings call.

Speaker 3: Joining me on the call today are Ashish Mase, our President and Chief Executive Officer, Jonathan Clark, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Ryan Bell, President of Midland Credit Management.

Speaker 3: A sheet and John will make prepared remarks today, and then we'll be happy to take your questions. Unless otherwise noted, comparisons on this conference call will be made between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2022. In addition, today's discussion will include forward-looking statements, subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual future results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings for detailed discussion of potential risks and uncertainties.

Speaker 4: I believe it's helpful to reiterate the critical role we play in the consumer credit ecosystem by assisting in the resolution of unpaid debts, which are an expected outcome of the lending business model. Our mission is to help create pathways to economic freedom for the consumers we serve by helping them resolve their past due debts. We do that by engaging consumers in honest, empathetic, and respectful conversations. Our business is to purchase portfolios of non-performing loans at attractive returns while minimizing funding costs. For each portfolio that we own, we strive to exceed our collection expectations.

Speaker 4: Change is to consumer behavior during the pandemic led to unusually low credit card balances and below average charge-offs, which in turn resulted in a reduced level of portfolio sales by banks. However, since early 2021, outstanding have been rising. Revolving credit in the U.S. surpassed pre-pandemic levels in early 2022, and each month thereafter the U.S. Federal Reserve has reported a new record level of outstanding.

Speaker 4: In addition to the upward trend in credit card outstandings, credit card delinquency rates in the U.S. have continued to rise in recent quarters. This sustained increase in delinquency rates is now leading to higher charge-offs and increased supply of portfolios for debt buyers such as Encore. With lending by U.S. banks continuing to set new records with each passing month and charge-off rates steadily rising.

Speaker 4: We are seeing increases in volumes from under existing forward flow agreements, as well as significant additional volume being brought to market by banks and issuers. It's clear that we have continued to transition into the portion of the consumer credit cycle in the US in which portfolio purchasing becomes increasingly favorable in terms of both market supply and returns.

Speaker 4: NCM's portfolio purchasing in Q1 of $213 million was more than twice the purchasing total for the same period last year.

Speaker 4: and represents a record level of capital deployment for our US business.

Speaker 4: Turning to a business in Europe , Cabots collections were $133 million in Q1, a decline of 10% as reported due to the impact of foreign currency and lower portfolio purchases. In constant currency, Cabots collections declined only 2% and remained broadly in line with our expectations. The largest outlier on a comparative basis was in Spain. With collections were somewhat impacted by strikes in the Spanish code system. Overall, we are still not seeing any changes in consumer behavior.

Speaker 4: As a result, we have remained disciplined in our approach to portfolio purchasing. As we have said in the past, ultimately pricing will need to align with higher funding costs before we allocate additional capital toward growing and deployments in Europe . As outlined in our 2022 results, we reduced our headcount within CAWA during Q1, primarily in our support functions. In order to manage our cost base, these reductions resulted in a $6 million pre-tax charge in the quarter. We believe that our ability to do...

Speaker 4: to hire collections for our business. When incremental cash generation from these higher collections began to subside

Speaker 4: Our cast generation came under pressure as the prolonged period of lower portfolio purchases then led to reduced overall collections.

Speaker 4: However, as expected,

Speaker 4: Higher portfolio purchases and attractive returns in recent quarters have now reversed this trend.

Speaker 4: and a cast generation in Q1 has begun to grow.

Speaker 4: We expect this trend to continue.

Speaker 4: Executing on our three pillar strategy ensures that the strength of a balance sheet is a constant priority. Over the past several years, a strong operating performance and focused capital deployment drove higher levels of cash generation.

Speaker 4: and contributed to a lower level of debt, which reduced our leverage significantly over time.

Speaker 4: More recently, a leverage has risen, driven by both lower collections.

Speaker 4: and increased portfolio purchasing over the last few quarters. When compared to the pre-pandemic years, ONCO has become a much stronger company with lower leverage. We now have a unified global funding structure that provides us with financial flexibility.

Speaker 4: diversified sources of financing, and extended maturities. Through a strong balance sheet, we remain well positioned to fund the portfolio purchasing opportunities that lie ahead.

Speaker 4: I'd now like to hand over the call to John for a more detailed look at our financial results.

Speaker 4: I'd now like to hand over the call to John for a more detailed look at financial results. Thank you, Shish.

Speaker 3: When comparing Q1 results to those from a year ago, keep in mind that the elevated level of collections last year was atypical and resulted in part from US consumer behavior that is since normalized.

Speaker 3: In addition, in the first quarter of last year, our revenues and earnings benefited from $167 million of changes in recoveries.

Speaker 3: I'd also like to highlight a few other items that I believe are noteworthy. As we mentioned during our last earnings call, we reduced Cabot's head count during Q1, principally in support functions in order to manage our cost base.

Speaker 3: These reductions resulted in a $6 million pre-text charge which reduced Q1 2023 EPS by 19 cents.

Speaker 3: Elsewhere, we continue to effectively manage our cross base as operating expenses remain well controlled despite inflationary pressures.

Speaker 3: Collections in Q1 were approximately 3% lower than expected and resulted in $15 million of recoveries below forecast, thus reducing Q1 EPS by 46 cents.

Speaker 3: Changes in expected future recoveries totaling $6 million was a result of a very small increase in our existing global ERC, less than 1%, which increased Q1 EPS by 18 cents.

Speaker 3: I'd like to emphasize that Cecil Accounting can cause significant fluctuations in quarterly reported results, but they do converge with cash results over the long term.

Speaker 3: employing a long-term perspective to building shareholder value. Portfolio purchasing in Q1 more than doubled in the US compared to the first quarter last year as we have transitioned to a new phase of the credit cycle with increased purchasing.

Speaker 3: This growth in purchasing is also reflected in our estimated remaining collections or ERC, which was flat compared to a year ago on a reported basis at 7.8 billion dollars. However, ERC actually grew 2% in constant currency and is expected to grow from here.

Speaker 3: Collections were $462 million in Q1, down 11 percent compared to the eight typically high collections level in the first quarter a year ago. Breaking that result down into two major businesses, MCM's collections in the U.S. declined 11 percent compared to Q1 last year, primarily due to lower portfolio purchasing in recent years and the normalization of consumer behavior.

Speaker 3: Cabbage collections in the first quarter declined 10% as reported primarily due to the foreign currency effect of the weakening of the British pound and Euro compared to a year ago. In constant currency, Cabbage Q1 collections were down only 2%.

Speaker 3: For portfolios owned at the end of 2022, ENCOR's global collections performance through the first quarter was 96% of our year-end portfolio ERC. For MCM and for CABIT, collections through Q1 by the same measure were 95% and 98%, respectively. For MCM, the collection shortfall in Q1 appears to be mainly a time-

Speaker 3: in the bond market, we cannot overstate the importance of our global funding structure. It provides us the financial horsepower, financial flexibility, and diversified funding sources to approach the growing supply environment from a position of strength.

Speaker 3: We believe our balance sheet also provides us very competitive funding costs when compared to our peers and competitors.

Speaker 3: In this environment, we believe higher financing costs are beginning to have a moderating effect on portfolio pricing in the U.S. as debt buyers adapt their bidding behaviors to their higher costs of capital.

Speaker 3: Having said that, we believe current pricing in Europe does not yet reflect this moderating effect, but we expect it will over time.

Speaker 4: With that, I'd like to turn it back over to Ashish. Before I close, I'd like to remind everyone of our commitment to a consistent set of financial priorities that we established long ago.

Speaker 4: The importance of a strong, diversified balance sheet in our industry cannot be overstated.

Speaker 4: especially as highly anticipated growth and market supply has arrived in the US. We will continue to be good stewards of your capital by always taking the long view and prioritizing portfolio purchases and attractive returns in order to build long-term shareholder value.

Speaker 4: In the U.S., now that consumer behavior has normalized and portfolio supply growth is accelerating, it's clear that we have transitioned to the next phase of the consumer credit cycle. As a result, more consumers than ever will need our support and we are ready to help them resolve their debts and restore their financial health consistent with our mission.

Speaker 4: and the essential role we play in the consumer credit ecosystem. A few quarters ago, we spoke about facing pressures on collections, revenues, and earnings due to lower purchasing in recent years, and the normalization of consumer behavior. Our recent results have reflected these expected pressures.

Speaker 4: Now that our portfolio purchasing in the US has turned a corner and returns are improving,

Speaker 4: We have begun to see these pressures subside on cash generation. The recovery of our US market is evolving as we expected, and we remain confident in our view of the business and are well positioned to capitalize on this opportunity.

Speaker 4: Although the recovery of our business in the UK and Europe is unfolding more slowly, we remain confident that we're taking the right actions to best position a business for the opportunities that will come when the market becomes more constructive.

Speaker 4: 2023 has started off as a strong year for portfolio purchasing driven by growth in the US. As we look ahead, we expect MCM portfolio purchases in Q2 will be similar to our Q1 year, which was a quarterly record for our US business.

Speaker 4: And we also see a robust pipeline for MCM in the second half of the year in both volumes and returns. And as I mentioned earlier, quarterly cash generation has grown sequentially in the first quarter, a trend we expect to continue.

Speaker 4: Now we'd be happy to answer any questions that you may have.

Speaker 4: Now we'd be happy to answer any questions that you may have. Operator, please open up the lines for questions.

Speaker 2: At this time, we will conduct the question-and-answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 1-1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1-1 again.

Speaker 2: Please stand by while we compile the question and answer roster. Our first speaker comes from the line of Mike Grondall of Northland Securities. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5: the time and you said there'd be a couple week quarters.

Speaker 5: You've had three week quarters so far. Where are you kind of sitting today? Do you see another week quarter or two or, I don't know, how are you handicapping it today?

Speaker 4: Mike, thanks for your question.

Speaker 4: You're absolutely right. We started talking about this collections pressure back in August last year where we said compared to the pandemic years our collections and revenues and earnings will be under pressure. Now just to recap that was from two reasons. One was

Speaker 4: due to lower purchasing for a long period of time, as well as unusually high collections in the US during that same pandemic period.

Speaker 4: And recent quarters have indeed reflected these pressures. But as I said in our remarks, a portfolio supply in US has turned the corner and returns are improving. We set a quarterly record for US purchases and we expect Q2 to be at a similar level.

Speaker 4: so I do expect these pressures to start subsiding, have begun to subside in some ways. For example, we highlighted a key metric, a turning point in a key metric of cash generation that grew sequentially and we expected to continue. So over time as

Speaker 4: purchasing continues at a higher level and at good returns, these pressures will continue to subside. I am very confident and like the position where we stand today looking ahead.

Speaker 5: Got it, got it. And maybe Jonathan, I think you said.

Speaker 5: MCM had 96% of their expected year-end collections in 1Q.

Speaker 5: And I think you said one of the reasons was MCM's, the timing of collections on some recently acquired portfolios. Could you just explain that a little bit? I'll tell you what, I'll give you some clarity on the number, then I'll turn it over to Ashish to talk about our go-forward on the

Speaker 5: at MCM. But the number, I just want to ground you in what the number is. The number is comparing, which is something we do during the course of a year, we compare to our ERC as of year end.

Speaker 5: And that's a good, I think, a good solid metric to go back and revisit every quarter. It's your back book, if you will, that you have going into the year.

Speaker 5: The first quarter it was 96 on a combined basis. It was 95 for MCM and Kebit was 90.

Speaker 5: 98, and so I just want to make sure we grounded you in what that metric is, and then we go back and we revisit it every quarter. So if I could add to that, thanks, John . So that was, as John mentioned, a little bit of a break.

Speaker 4: some level of timing in the recent vintages. The 21 and 22 vintages are the ones that face the most negative performance and that we saw. And I would say in terms of timing that the point there is we are seeing a bit of lower cash from consumers in terms of the initial payment or the down payment if you would.

Speaker 4: And actually we're seeing even better than expected payment plan set up. So we expect to get that cash over time, perhaps even more, but for sure get that cash over time. So it's just lower initial cash on some of those recent ventages. And you can see those in our queue filing as well on 21 and 22 ventages.

Speaker 4: actually we're seeing even better than expected payment plan set up so we expect to get that cash over time, perhaps even more but for sure get that cash over time so it's just lower initial cash on some of those recent ventages and you can see those in our queue filing as well on 21 and 22 ventages. Got it. Okay thanks guys.

Speaker 2: Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes.

Speaker 5: He wrote down wrong, I think. The combined was 96.

Speaker 5: MCM was 95 and CABOT was 98.

Speaker 6: All right. Very good.

Speaker 6: All right, very good.

Speaker 5: The availability under your credit facility, what is that total at quarter end? 388 million.

Speaker 5: Availability under your credit facility, what is that total at quarter end? 388 million. And we also have 140 million.

Speaker 5: I'm sorry, we have $140 million in non-client cash as well.

Speaker 3: Yeah, that was going to be my question. I anticipated that question. How did you find tax season? I think I saw the text receipts or refunds were down.

Speaker 6: maybe 10% or something like that in the first quarter. What was your experience?

Speaker 4: Yeah, in the US, we're kind of not seeing any different behavior regarding tax from consumers. We do track the refund rates very closely in our operations, but we're not seeing any...

Speaker 4: Kind of impact that we can attribute to taxes now overall consumer behavior as I just mentioned You're seeing a bit less cash up front and more willingness to set up payment plans, which tend to hold pretty well Over time so that's what we are seeing currently on the tax front and US consumer front Okay

Speaker 6: And then the collections multiples, I didn't say that the queue was out for a...

Speaker 4: Yeah, UF paper and then Cabot the 2023 paper. Yes, so for 2023, UF multiple is 2.2 and Cabot multiple is 1.7.

Speaker 6: Okay. And then Jonathan, interest expense.

Speaker 6: I think maybe about a quarter of your debt is floating with what the Fed's up to these days. What do you think it looks like in Q2?

Speaker 5: Yeah, I think I would stick by our mid 40s.

Speaker 5: indicator we gave last quarter. I think that's probably a reasonably good number. And as you know, Mark in environmental like that, I guess I'm supposed to say subject to subject to subject to, but if everything was at a constant rate, that would be reasonable assumption.

Speaker 6: Yeah. As you should mention, additional volume from banks and issuers in addition to.

Speaker 6: higher for flow activity. I guess one idea is the pressure on banks might lead them to..

Speaker 6: So paper a little more quickly in order to

raise capital, is that the

Does that jive with your experience? Are you hearing anything like that? Mark, no, we're not hearing any talk around that being a driver. So what we are clearly seeing for several months now is just two drivers, right? Lending has grown a lot. These banks and credit card issuers have lent a lot.

And as those vintage season, the delinquencies and charge of rates are rising. So combined the two, we're seeing both flows being higher level than before. And more of these coming to market from the same issuers than actually some new issuers, consumer lenders, FinTech type of players. So that's what we are seeing. We have not heard any.

reason around the recent banking situation, driving them to sell more, at least from the credit card players that we deal with.

felt any of that. Perhaps that becomes a driver in the future for some, but nothing so far. It's just happening.

due course of the consumer credit cycle that we are seeing is accelerating in some ways the supply increase for our industry. Yeah. And one more if I might. You're still well within your leverage target, but it's been moving up a bit here.

If things continue to move in the right direction in terms of supply.

Is there a thought to maybe tempering your appetite here in the near term? And.

Perhaps being a little more measured, not that you're not being measured, but maybe a thing about delaying some purchases until later. Yeah, markets have perfectly valid questions. We just start off.

take our leverage very seriously. And so, as you know, we've told people our target is two to three times. And some of the explanation, I think it's worth saying, is giving a little bit of color, the explanation of the growth and leverage, right? Because it's easy to come to a misperception of...

what's driving it. You know, we haven't been buying much in the way of charge of receivables until recently and as a result, as you've heard, she say a number of times our collections and therefore our adjusted EBITDA have been under pressure, right?

And second, our debt naturally does go up. When you think about the cycles here, our debt naturally does go up as we're, it's good news where we have more to buy and it happens to be front-end loaded, right?

then as the cash flows come from those purchases and we're buying it very attractive multiples, it works to give you stronger and stronger leverage metrics. So I just want to explain a little bit about the dynamics and I don't want anyone to just extrapolate from recent trajectory and come to the conclusion that we're just going to...

sore through our levels, but we will be managing as necessary as best we can to stay within our target range because we take our, as you know, we take our balance sheet and our rating very seriously.

Yeah, and I know the portfolio started to throw off cash pretty quickly, so it's certainly to give you the ability to buy paper now and later. But I wanted to get your perspective on that, so thank you. That's good for me. Thanks, Mark.

Yeah, and I know the portfolio started to throw off cash pretty quickly, so it's – they certainly give you the ability to buy paper now and later. But wanted to get your perspective on that, so thank you. That's good for me. Thanks, Mark. Thank you. Please stand by for our next question.

Once from the line, leave a date chart of JMP Securities. Your line is now open.

Sheesh, I guess this may be a softball question, but I just wanted to make sure. Setting aside for the time being.

This may be a softball question, but I just wanted to make sure, you know, setting aside for the time being, you know, accounting or...

sort of orders of magnitude. In a very high level, is there any new message from you on this call versus the one we were on two months ago?

Yeah, I would say it's consistent as we've kind of built up our message, but now...

for sure in US we are seeing an acceleration in supply compared to the last quarter. I mean that.

We had signaled what we were going to purchase in Q1. We are seeing continued flows increase in size, continued deals coming to market, and now we see you after Q1 results of the banks and issuers the delinquencies in charge of rates rising.

as we've shown in the charts we shared today as well. So I would say the different messages.

The supply increases accelerating and it's real. And in the last couple of months, I would say we also saw price improvement, rather price decrease in the US market. Now it's early and you may not see that reflected in Q123 because those are the result of flows signed previously and over time.

as those floors run off and the new ones take hold. And if there's more pricing improvement, which normally should happen when supply rises,

you should see better multiples being booked through the year. So that's a new message, that's different, and we had anticipated it to some extent, but we are seeing it in very real situations now to the deals that are coming through.

Got it. That's helpful, caller. I guess, additionally, I wanted to...

I got it. That's helpful, Collar. I guess, additionally, I wanted to just get a better feel for...

What's going on with the US consumer in the sense that

You know the anecdote you provided about the 21 and 22 vintages being timing related specifically

provided about the 21 and 22 vignages being timing related and specifically maybe.

lower upfront payments and more payment plans. I'm putting myself in the shoes of a debtor. You know, if I can't make any payments and somebody offers me a payment plan for a little, I mean, I can just see behaviorally, that's not a good reflection of where the US consumer is headed. And obviously there've been recession signals going on for months now.

Is that usually a leading indicator for you?

to get a lot more cautious on collection forecasts going forward when there seems to be more headwind on upfront payments and more of a desire to accept extended payment plans.

get a lot more cautious on collection forecasts going forward when there seems to be more headwind on upfront payments and more of a desire to accept extended payment plans.

I guess related to that, you know, does that, will that be reflected in, I guess, perhaps.

kind of trying to read the US consumer. David, so what's happening is it's much more normalized. And if you go back to pre-pandemic levels, it's much more in line with what we used to see. What we saw for a couple of years during pandemic when consumers save money or had support was unusually excess liquidity and high cash payments. I mean, the savings rates had shot up and now savings rates actually below pre-pandemic in some ways.

is facing certain pressures, but they kind of...

not fully there yet as a recession would because inflation is there which is new, but unemployment rate is record low. So all of those things combined are leading to much more for normal behavior at this time, but we'll of course be watching out for consumer behavior changes and adjusting our operations.

to make sure we are dealing with the consumers and addressing what their situations are now. For example, inflation has tamed down a bit and gas prices have reduced again. So that's less of a conversation, but.

consumers are absolutely behaving more normally, kind of usual consumers that we see, given their recent charge off before the pandemic. So it's kind of more normalized and I would say that whole excess liquidity that consumers had, that is gone and we are back into the normal situation now. Okay, got it. And then maybe just a couple for Jonathan.

First, as we think about modeling labor costs, which I imagine are impacted by inflation as well, salary and benefits, it's always the biggest line item, obviously call center employees.

It went up 15% sequentially, and I don't know if the restructuring or I don't know if some of the headcount reductions in Europe Severance hit that line item, but is there a level?

we ought to be thinking about quarterly this year, because there's a pretty big variance between kind of 90 million per quarter in the second half last year, and 104 or five million in Q1. Yeah, I'll take that and John can chime in. And you're absolutely right, the six million charge did hit the S&B line about a hundred shares from Studio pound of tech. So some Oregonians opened chipcon... This isn't a good burst in 11 years, again, it wasac screw because you know that as playtime came on

You're welcome. Thank you. Before we move to our next question, as a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. Again, to ask a question, press star 1-1 on your telephone. Please hold for our next question. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Dodd of Raymond James. Your line is now open.

don't look like they're going to get more appealing or deteriorated, or was it just a kind of, I want to say an across the board reduction, but was there any particular area of focus to that charge and nationalization of head care? Robert, it was all in Europe , UK and continental Europe and support functions primarily. And it was a very thoughtful exercise that the team went through in terms of which teams, there's opportunity, which teams are doing certain functions that are critical. So, and then also closing open requisitions or open positions. So that exercise was across all countries in Europe and UK. So I wouldn't say it's regarding any particular sub-market there. There's no message that one should imply from that. But it was all in,

the UK and continental Europe . Now we continue to manage across other countries including the US and the headquarters and support functions here as well in terms of open position management and all that but the reductions were all in Europe and UK. Thank you. And then about the 21-22 vintage questions in the US. If I could and I appreciate all the color you've given already. If you would look at what the

mix of upfront versus payment plan or down payment, so to speak, versus payment plan was in say 2017-2018 versus where it is now for those 21-22s. Is it comparable to kind of historical norms or the...

where you are assuming, already assuming normalization and that it's worse than that, or is this...

some kind of, is there an element of kind of what does a during COVID default look like? And how should that be modeled into the curve if you can?

opportunity well-formed question, but any color there? Yeah, I mean it's kind of reverting to more normalized behavior. Again, if you try to find slides too much, it kind of may lose meaning, but it is reverting to more normal behavior that we would see prior to the pandemic. Brian , any color you would add? Ryan is here as well on that.

I mean, I get through a look through all the data by data, but it's consistent with the pre-pandemic crunches. So, you know, 2017, 2018, 2019, we just saw an abundance of change in 2020 and 2021, and now it's just reverting back to that normal behavior.

I mean, you have to go look through all the data by data, but it's consistent with the pre-pandemic tranches. So, you know, 2017, 2018, 2019, we just saw an abundance of change in 2020 and 21, and now it's just reverting back to that normal behavior. Got it, got it. I appreciate that. Thank you.

At this time, I would like to turn it back to Mr. Massie for any further comments. Thank you.

As we close the call today, I'd like to reiterate a couple of important points. As the consumer credit cycles in our key markets each evolve in their own unique ways, we continue our disciplined purchasing approach by allocating capital to our markets with the highest returns. And when combined with our effective collections operation, we continue to grow our business and our business as a whole.

This approach has enabled us to begin to grow our cash generation once again.

This is the portion of the credit cycle we have been anticipating. We are also as committed as ever to the essential role we play in the credit ecosystem and to help consumers regain their financial freedom.

Thanks for taking the time to join us, and we look forward to providing a second quarter 2023 results in August .

disconnect.

Should I?