Q4 2023 Canada Goose Holdings Inc Earnings Call

May 18, 2023

Speaker 1: So.

Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Canada Goose Q4 and full year 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, please press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Amy Schwalm.

Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Canada Goose Q4 and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, please press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Amy Schwalm.

Speaker 2: Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Canada Goose fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session.

Speaker 2: To ask a question during the session, please press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Amy Schwab.

Amy Schwalm: Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. With me are Dani Reiss, Chairman and CEO, Jonathan Sinclair, EVP and CFO, and Carrie Baker, President. Our call today, including the Q&A portion, includes forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement, including without limitation, discussion of our financial outlook, is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. Certain material factors and assumptions were considered and applied in making these forward-looking statements. Additional information regarding these statements, factors, and assumptions is available in our earnings press release issued this morning. Our updated strategic growth plan and five-year financial outlook press release issued on 7 February 2023, as well as in the Risk Factors section of our most recent annual report filed with the securities regulators. These documents are also available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

Speaker 3: Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. With me are Danny Reist, Chairman and CEO , Jonathan Sinclair, EVP and CFO , and Carrie Baker, President. Thank you for joining us today.

Speaker 3: Our call today, including the Q&A portion, includes forward-looking statements.

Speaker 3: Each forward-looking statement, including, without limitation, discussion of our financial outlook, is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. Certain material factors and assumptions were considered and applied in making these forward-looking statements.

Speaker 3: Additional information regarding these statements, factors, and assumptions is available in our earnings press release issued this morning.

Speaker 3: Our updated strategic growth plan and 5 year financial outlook press release issued on February 7th, 2023, as well as in the risk factors section of our most recent annual report filed with the securities regulators.

Amy Schwalm: The forward-looking statements made on this call speak only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of these statements. Lastly, our commentary today will also include certain non-IFRS financial measures which are reconciled at the end of our earnings press release. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dani.

Speaker 3: These documents are also available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

Speaker 3: The four looking statements made on this call speak only as of today and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of these statements.

Speaker 3: Lastly, our commentary today will also include certain non-IFRS financial measures, which are reconciled at the end of our earnings press release. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dani.

Dani Reiss: Thank you, Amy, and good morning everyone. We had a strong Q4 at Canada Goose. Our stores were busy and the familiar lineups have returned. Our stores in every market performed well, with traffic rebounding, especially in EMEA and APAC. Our business in China made a strong recovery from our Q3 in fiscal 2023, and has continued its momentum into fiscal year to date. We've seen the same momentum continue across all of our key geographies beyond Q4, which is a clear indication of the strength of our brand and the demand for our performance luxury products. This is a great position for us to be in as we execute against our strategic growth levers, which are accelerating our consumer-focused growth, building our direct-to-consumer network, and expanding categories.

Speaker 4: Thank you, Amy, and good morning, everyone.

Speaker 4: We get a strong fourth quarter at Canada's degree.

Speaker 4: Our stores were busy and the familiar lineups have returned.

Speaker 4: Our stores in every market performed well, with traffic rebounding, especially in EMEA and APAC.

Speaker 4: Our business in China made a strong recovery from our third quarter in fiscal 2023 and has continued its momentum into fiscal year to date.

Speaker 4: We've seen the same momentum continue across all of our key geographies beyond the fourth quarter, which is a clear indication of the strength of our brand and the demand for our performance luxury products.

Speaker 4: This is a great position for us to be in as we execute against our strategic growth levers, which are accelerating our consumer-focused growth, building our direct-to-consumer network, and expanding categories.

Dani Reiss: As I look back at our fiscal 2023, we closed the year having grown top line revenue to more than CAD 1.2 billion. We have made important progress against our growth plan, including investments in CRM, digital, people, and DTC expansion. Store traffic continues to improve as consumers seek out our award-winning in-store experience. We've also seen a return to a more normalized operating environment, especially in China, with the lifting of COVID restrictions late in our Q3. We grew our store footprint, opening 10 permanent stores in fiscal 2023, increasing our global store fleet by almost one-quarter. Consumer trends are beginning to normalize. This includes encouraging initial international travel data that we're seeing across many of our key markets. Wholesale ended the year well and remains an important channel for us as our DTC network expands.

Speaker 4: As I look back at our fiscal 2023, we closed the year having grown top line revenue to more than $1.2 billion.

Speaker 4: We have made important progress against our growth plan, including investments in CRM, digital people, and the DTC expansion.

Speaker 4: Store traffic continues to improve as consumers seek out our award-winning in-store experience.

Speaker 4: We've also seen a return to a more normalized operating environment, especially in China with the lifting of COVID restrictions late in our third quarter.

Speaker 4: We grew our store footprint, opening 10 permanent stores in fiscal 2023, increasing our global store fleet by almost one quarter.

Speaker 4: Consumer trends are beginning to normalize. This includes encouraging international travel data that we're seeing across many of our key markets.

Dani Reiss: As we conclude fiscal 2023, we have a strong foundation in place to execute against our strategic growth levers going forward. Looking ahead, we are confident that the momentum we've built in our business will continue to build. At our investor day in February, we outlined our longer term plan, and we are committed to our strategy to accelerate our growth, targeting CAD 3 billion in revenue with adjusted EBIT margin of 30%. In fiscal 2024, we plan to accelerate our revenue and profitability, leveraging the investments we've made over the past year. We plan to generate revenue growth of 15% to 23%. We're targeting our adjusted EBIT margins to be between 15% to 16%.

Speaker 4: Wholesale ended the year well and remains an important channel for us as our GTC network expands.

Speaker 4: As we conclude fiscal 2023, we have a strong foundation in place to execute against our strategic growth levers going forward.

Speaker 4: And looking ahead, we're confident that the momentum we've built in our business will continue to build.

Speaker 4: At our investor date in February , we outlined our longer-term plan, so we are committed to our strategy to accelerate our growth, targeting $3 billion in revenue with an adjusted EBIT margin of 30%.

Speaker 4: In the fiscal 2024, we plan to accelerate our revenue and profitability.

Speaker 4: leveraging the investments we've made over the past year.

Speaker 4: We plan to generate revenue growth of 15 to 23%.

Dani Reiss: Fiscal year 2024 will be another year of investment in our business, and we expect to realize margin benefits progressively as we drive towards our long-term target. Later, you will hear more from Jonathan as he provides a deeper dive into our outlook for this fiscal year. The path ahead is clear and driven by three strategic pillars. First, we are accelerating our consumer-focused growth. We have a tremendous opportunity to further build loyalty with our current and new customers. We've seen growth in our repeat customer cohort. We ended fiscal year 2023 with repeat customers making up almost a third of our base. We plan to continue our focus on growing this metric through shifting marketing investments to drive greater ROI conversion and ultimately lifetime value.

Speaker 4: We're targeting our adjusted EBIT margins to be between 15 to 16%.

Speaker 4: another year of investment in our business, and we expect to realize margin benefits progressively.

Speaker 4: business and we expect to realize margin benefits progressively as we drive towards a long-term target.

Speaker 4: Later, you will hear more from Jonathan as he provides a deeper dive into our outlook for this fiscal year.

Speaker 4: The path ahead is clear and driven by three strategic pillars.

Speaker 4: First, we are accelerating our consumer-focused growth.

Speaker 4: We have a tremendous opportunity to further build loyalty to our current and new customers.

Speaker 4: We've seen growth in our repeat customer cohort. We ended fiscal year 2023 with repeat customers making up almost a third of our base.

Speaker 4: We plan to continue our focus on growing this metric through shifting marketing investments to drive greater ROI conversion and ultimately lifetime value.

Dani Reiss: In fiscal year 2024, we will begin to further unlock our CRM opportunities, leveraging our customer data platform to segment and personalize engagement with our clients through all touch points much more meaningfully. Lastly, this year we plan to launch travel retail. We know travel is important to our customer, and meeting them at a wholly new stage of their journey is a part of our commitment to consumer-focused growth. This year, we plan to open 2 to 3 locations, and I look forward to updating you on our progress as it evolves. Second is building our DTC network. Over the next 5 years, we plan to more than double our retail footprint from our current base of 51 permanent stores. In the next year, we plan to open 16 permanent stores with new store locations in the United States, China, Japan, and Australia.

Dani Reiss: In fiscal year 2024, we will begin to further unlock our CRM opportunities, leveraging our customer data platform to segment and personalize engagement with our clients through all touch points much more meaningfully. Lastly, this year we plan to launch travel retail. We know travel is important to our customer, and meeting them at a wholly new stage of their journey is a part of our commitment to consumer-focused growth. This year, we plan to open two to three locations, and I look forward to updating you on our progress as it evolves. Second is building our DTC network. Over the next five years, we plan to more than double our retail footprint from our current base of 51 permanent stores. In the next year, we plan to open 16 permanent stores with new store locations in the United States, China, Japan, and Australia.

Speaker 4: And in fiscal year 24, we will begin to further unlock our CRM opportunities, leveraging our customer data platform to segment and personalize engagement with our clients through all touchboards much more meaningfully. Lastly, this year, we plan to launch Travel Retail. We know travel is important to our customer and meeting with them in a whole new state.

Speaker 4: We plan to board double our retail footprint from our current base of 51 permanent stores. In the next year, we plan to open 16 permanent stores with new store locations in the United States, China, Japan and Australia.

Dani Reiss: We expect the vast majority of these stores to be fully operational before our peak season starting in fall. When it comes to our store network, we are laser focused on enhancing store performance through our digital platforms and in-store experience. We see a significant opportunity in our digital roadmap to support our goals by driving more traffic to stores, helping our stores really know and connect with their high-value clients, and optimizing our inventory across our entire network. Having an omnichannel approach is critical to our success, and we are making the necessary investments both in our people and systems. We are also excited to fully roll out omnichannel capabilities across Europe in fiscal 2024. Just last month, we announced the hiring of Matt Laudreau, our first ever Chief Digital Officer. I am very excited for Matt to lead the growth of our digital presence globally.

Speaker 4: We expect the vast majority of these stores to be fully operational before our peak season starting in fall.

Speaker 4: When it comes to our store network, we are laser focused on enhancing store performance through our digital platforms and in-store experience.

Speaker 4: We see a significant opportunity in our digital roadmap to support our goals by driving more traffic to stores, helping our stores really know and connect with their high-value clients, and optimizing our inventory across our entire network. Having an omnitannel approach is critical to our success.

Speaker 4: capabilities across Europe in fiscal 2024.

Dani Reiss: Our third pillar is expanding product categories. At the end of fiscal 2023, we made important progress against this pillar. We continue to expand our product mix and grow our non-heavyweight down offerings, including categories like apparel, footwear, and fleece. Non-heavyweight down now makes up almost 43% of our product mix, up from 38.5% in fiscal 2022 and 19% in 2019. This summer, we will launch our first performance sneaker collection, a huge opportunity for our company. The collection is styled forward, wearable year-round, with the performance credentials to suit any adventure. Early this fall, we plan to continue to expand our women's focused outerwear collections following the successful expansion of our women's collection last fiscal year.

Speaker 4: Chief Digital Officer. I am very excited for Matt to lead the growth of our digital premise globally.

Speaker 4: Our third pillar is Expanding Product Categories.

Speaker 4: At the end of fiscal 2020 and 2023, we made important progress against this pillar.

Speaker 4: We continue to expand our product mix and grow our non-heavyweight down offering, including categories of apparel, footwork, and sleeves.

Speaker 4: Non-heavy weight down now makes up almost 43% of our product mix.

Speaker 4: up from 38.5% in fiscal 2022 and 19% in 2019. And this summer we will launch our first performance speaker collection.

Speaker 4: a huge opportunity for our company.

Speaker 4: The selection is styled forward, wearable year-round, with a performance credential to suit any adventure.

Speaker 4: And early this fall, we plan to continue to expand our women's-focused outerwear collections.

Dani Reiss: The new styles were incredibly well received, with several SKUs landing in our top ten styles for the season. As you can hear, we are full speed ahead in executing our three pillars, and we are clearly on a path to achieving our long-term goals. In Q4, we kicked off our multi-phase transformation program. This is an evolution of our business to support both the strategic pillars and to take our business to the next level. Our work will focus on increasing operational efficiencies by optimizing production and procurement, developing people and resources, and focusing even more on our consumers to drive sustainable growth, profitability, and long-term value. We've already begun this work, and it will roll out over a number of years. Now, let's turn to our Q4 financial results.

Speaker 4: following the successful expansion of a women's selection last fiscal year.

Speaker 4: The new styles were incredibly well received with several SKUs landing on our top 10 styles for the season.

Speaker 4: As you can hear.

Speaker 4: We are full speed ahead in executing our three pillars, and we are clearly on a path to achieving our long term goals.

Speaker 4: In the fourth quarter, we kicked off our multi-phase transformation program. This is an evolution of our business to support both the strategic pillars and to take our business to the next level.

Speaker 4: Our work will focus on increasing operational efficiency by optimizing production and procurement, developing people and resources, and focusing even more on our consumers to derive sustainable growth, profitability, and long-term value.

Speaker 4: We've already begun this work and it will roll out over a number of years.

Dani Reiss: As I mentioned earlier, we saw strength across our business, both on the top line and in our profitability. Our revenue grew 31%, with strength in Asia Pacific up 65%, EMEA up 27%, and Canada up 41%. Our adjusted earnings per share were better than our expectations, up 250% versus the comparative quarter last year, growing from CAD 0.04 to CAD 0.14 per share. Now, turning to regional updates across the globe. Last quarter, we discussed the disruptions in Greater China following a wave of infections seen on the heels of a sudden lifting of COVID restrictions in our busiest season. Since then, we have seen a noticeable pickup in sales. Mainland China reported a record growth rate of approximately 40% versus last year, and APAC DTC comp growth was up 23.5% versus last year.

Speaker 4: Now, let's turn to our fourth quarter financial result.

Speaker 4: As I mentioned earlier, we saw strength across our business both on the top line and in our profitability.

Speaker 4: Our revenue grew 31%, with strength in Asia Pacific up 65%, EMEA up 27%, and Canada up 41%.

Speaker 4: Our adjusted earnings per share were better than our expectations, up 250% versus the comparative quarter last year, growing from $0.04 to $0.14 per share.

Speaker 4: Now, turning to regional updates across the globe.

Speaker 4: Last quarter, we discussed the disruptions in Greater China following a wave of infections seen on the heels of a sudden lifting of COVID restrictions in our busiest season. Since then, we have seen a noticeable pickup in sales. In addition, China reported a record growth rate of approximately 40%.

Dani Reiss: Our apparel collection saw notable growth in APAC in the quarter, more than doubling compared to the same quarter last year, approaching CAD 10 million in revenue. We also saw strength in our EMEA business. Over the last two years, we have seen EMEA gradually stabilize with a steady growth in tourism, still below the benchmarks we saw in 2019, with a lot of potential upside. Almost all of our European stores were open during COVID and are now benefiting from a more normalized operating environment. Lightweight down was a standout performer across EMEA in the quarter, with category revenue growing more than 30% from the prior year quarter. Lastly is North America, where we saw mixed results across the region.

Speaker 4: versus last year and APAC DTC comp growth was up 23.5% versus last year.

Speaker 4: Our payroll collections saw notable growth in APAC in the quarter, more than doubling compared to the same quarter lot, here approaching $10 million in revenue.

We also saw strength in our EMEA business. Over the last two years, we have seen EMEA gradually stabilized with a steady growth in tourism, still below the benchmarks we saw in 2019, with a lot of potential offset.

As well, almost all of our European stores were open during COVID and are now benefiting from a more normalized operating environment. Lightweight Down was a standout performer across EMEA in the quarter with category revenue growing more than 30% in the prior year quarter.

Dani Reiss: As expected, we saw softer sales in the US in our Q4, where the overall growth we saw across our stores was offset by lower e-commerce results. We attribute this to the macro environment in the quarter, where economic uncertainty affected consumer behavior. The US saw an acceleration at the end of the quarter through to the current quarter to date, which provides us with confidence that the business is recovering. Canada performed well in the quarter, up 41%. I'm pleased to see one of our most mature markets driving such strong results. Our apparel collection was the fastest growing category in North America, in Canada growing more than 170% compared to the same quarter last year. As I look back at 2023, it was a year of measured growth through uncertainty.

Lastly is North America, where we saw mixed results across the region. As we expected, we saw softer cells in the US.

in our fourth quarter where the overall growth we saw across our stores was offset by the lower e-commerce results.

We attribute this to the maximum environment in the quarter where economic uncertainty affects consumer behavior.

The US saw an acceleration at the end of the quarter through to the current quarter today, which provides us confidence in the business recovering.

Canada performed well in the quarter, up 41%. I'm pleased to see one of our most mature markets right now with a strong result.

Our apparel collection was the fastest growing category in Canada, growing more than 170% compared to the same quarter last year. As I look back at 2023, it was a year of measured growth through uncertainty. We ended fiscal 2023 in a strong position, and I'd like to thank all of our teams for

Dani Reiss: We ended fiscal 2023 in a strong position, and I'd like to thank all of our teams who always put our customers first. I'm looking forward to the years ahead. We have seen some early and encouraging signs and strong momentum across our markets. I'm also looking forward to the expertise that our new leaders will bring to our business, especially at such an exciting time of transformation and investment. Finally, I'm really looking forward to seeing our business in Greater China in the year ahead. With that, I'll turn it over to Jonathan.

who always put our customers first.

And I'm looking forward to the years ahead.

We have seen some early and encouraging signs and strong momentum across our markets.

I'm also looking forward to the expertise that our new leaders will bring to our business, especially at such an exciting time of transformation and investment. And finally, I'm really looking forward to seeing your improvements in Greater China in the year ahead.

Jonathan Sinclair: Thank you, Dani, and good morning, everyone. Today, I shall be comparing Q4 ended 2 April 2023, with the prior year quarter, which ended on 3 April 2022, unless I say otherwise. Overall, we were very happy with our results for the quarter. They were largely as expected, and notably, we closed out the year with some excellent momentum in our Asia Pacific and EMEA regions. As anticipated and indicated with the Q3 results, the United States was somewhat softer, with a tougher macroeconomic backdrop. Although still early days in a smaller quarter for us, we're encouraged by the momentum that we have seen across all regions in Q1 to date. I'll go into a bit more detail here shortly, but first, some more color on Q4.

And with that, I'll turn it over to John .

And with that, I'll turn it over to Jonathan. Thank you, Danny, and good morning, everyone.

Today, I shall be comparing the fourth quarter ended April 2, 2023 with the prior year quarter which ended on April 3, 2022. And that's mostly how the lines.

Overall, we were very happy with our results for the quarter. They were largely as expected and, notably, we closed out the year with some excellent momentum in our Asia-Pacific and EMEA regions.

As anticipated and indicated with the Q3 results, the United States was somewhat softer with a tougher macroeconomic backdrop.

Although still early days in a smaller quarter for us, we are encouraged by the momentum that we have seen across all regions in the first quarter to date.

Jonathan Sinclair: Total revenue grew 31.4% to CAD 293.2 million in Q4. DTC revenue increased 22.6%, driven by new stores as well as solid performance overall from existing stores. We ended fiscal 2023 with 51 permanent stores compared to 41 permanent stores at the end of fiscal 2022. DTC comparable sales grew 6.9% and 3.3% excluding mainland China. That was driven by growth within the existing store network, more than offsetting e-commerce business as consumers return to experiential shopping. As Dani mentioned, we have plans to execute on a number of initiatives, many of which are digitally enabled, and that should help position us well to further enhance store productivity and e-commerce performance in the not-so-distant future.

I'll go into a bit more detail here shortly, but first some more color on Q4. Total revenue grew 31.4% to $293.2 million in the fourth quarter. DTC revenue increased 22.6%.

driven by new stores as well as solid performance overall from existing stores. We ended fiscal 2023 with 51 permanent stores compared to 41 permanent stores at the end of fiscal 2022.

setting e-commerce business as consumers return to experiential shopping.

As Proto mentioned

We have plans to execute on a number of initiatives.

Jonathan Sinclair: Wholesale revenue grew 30.4% in Q4 on timing of shipments delayed from Q3, as well as higher order book values compared to the prior year quarter. Revenue from the Other segment was CAD 20.2 million compared to CAD 2.6 million in the prior year quarter. Primarily due to higher product availability to employees, friends, and family. Now, for performance by geography. In North America, revenue grew 41.2% in Canada, and that was partially offset by a small decline of 4.5% in the US. Asia Pacific revenue increased 65.4% without the disruptions from COVID-19 restrictions that existed in the comparative quarter. EMEA revenue grew 27.3% with strong growth across all channels. Turning to our profit metrics.

in the not-so-distant future.

Whole-cell revenue grew 30.4 percent in the fourth quarter on timing of shipments delayed from Q3 as well as higher order book values compared to the prior quarter. Revenue from the other segment was $20.2 million compared to $2.6 million.

in the prior year quarter, primarily due to higher product availability to employees, friends and family.

Now, performance by geography. In North America, revenue grew 41.2% in Canada.

And that was partially offset by a small decline of 4.5% in the US.

Asia Pacific revenue increased 65.4%.

without the disruptions from COVID-19 restrictions.

that existed in the comparative quarter.

EMEA revenue grew 27.3% with strong growth across all channels.

Jonathan Sinclair: Gross profit increased CAD 36.2 million, primarily due to higher revenue, partially offset by a gross margin decline. Gross margin of 64.9% was impacted by an increase in the obsolete raw material provision as we evolve the materials to be used in production. Gross margin was also impacted by higher product costs resulting from input cost inflation, albeit that was offset by pricing and the impact of the fair value adjustment for inventory acquired through the Canada Goose Japan. DTC and wholesale gross margins were 73.3% and 35.6% respectively. Our full year DTC and wholesale gross margins landed at 76.3% and 49.7% respectively, as we expected. Operating income increased largely due to higher gross profit.

Turning to our profit metrics, gross profit increased 36.2 million primarily due to higher revenue.

Partially offset.

by a gross margin decline. Gross margin of 64.9% was impacted by an increase in the obsolete raw material provision.

as we evolve the materials to be used in production. The gross margin was also impacted by higher product costs.

resulting from input cost inflation, albeit that that was offset by pricing, and the impact of the fair value adjustment for inventory acquired through the Japan joint venture. DCC and wholesale gross margins were 73.3%.

and 35.6% respectively.

Our full year DTC and wholesale gross margins landed at 76.3% and 49.7% respectively as we expected.

Jonathan Sinclair: That increase was partially offset by higher operating costs, and they related to increased headcount, a larger store network, higher consulting fees in support of our strategic initiatives, including the transformation program, as well as costs associated with the Canada Goose Japan. Our adjusted EBIT increased to CAD 27.6 million, primarily due to the higher gross profit and partially offset by higher operating costs, as I just described, in respect of the team, the store network, and the operation of the Canada Goose Japan. Net loss was higher than the comparative quarter, primarily due to higher net interest, finance, and other costs as well as the income tax expense, and that was partly offset by higher operating income. Adjusted net income increased from the prior year quarter due to the higher operating income offset by higher income tax expense. Now turning to the balance sheet.

Operating income.

increased, largely due to higher gross profit. That increase was partially offset by higher operating costs and they related to increased headcount, a larger store network, higher consulting fees in support of our strategic initiatives, including the transformation program, as well as costs associated with the Japan joint venture.

Our adjusted EBIT increased to $27.6 million primarily due to the higher gross profit and partially offset by higher operating costs as I've just described in respect to the team, the store network and the operation of the Japan joint venture. Let me give you an overview of the overall performance area of the market.

was higher than the comparative quarter, primarily due to higher interest, finance, and other costs, as well as the income tax expense. And that was partly offset by higher operating income.

adjusted net income increased from the prior year quarter due to the higher operating income offset by higher income tax expense.

adjusted net income increased from the prior year quarter due to the higher operating income offset by higher income tax expense. I'll turn into the balance sheet.

Jonathan Sinclair: Inventory of CAD 472.6 million compared to CAD 393.3 million in the prior year quarter. Japan represented around CAD 19.2 million of the inventory balance at the quarter end and therefore represented around a quarter of the growth. Higher inventory levels are attributable to lower than expected sales in the Asia Pacific region for most of FY23. As we said at Investor Day, we are focused on improving working capital and inventory turnover. However, we remain comfortable with finished goods inventory levels as the inventory composition continues to skew to high margin evergreen finished goods. Raw material inventory levels were down 15% from the prior year.

Jonathan Sinclair: Inventory of CAD 472.6 million compared to CAD 393.3 million in the prior year quarter. Japan represented around CAD 19.2 million of the inventory balance at the quarter end and therefore represented around a quarter of the growth. Higher inventory levels are attributable to lower than expected sales in the Asia Pacific region for most of FY2023. As we said at Investor Day, we are focused on improving working capital and inventory turnover. However, we remain comfortable with finished goods inventory levels as the inventory composition continues to skew to high margin evergreen finished goods. Raw material inventory levels were down 15% from the prior year.

inventory of $472.6 million compared to $393.3 million in the prior year quarter.

The pound represented around 19.2 million of the inventory balance at the quarter end, and therefore represented around a quarter of the growth.

Higher inventory levels are attributable to lower than expected sales in the Asia-Pacific region for most of fiscal 2023.

As we said at InvestiDate, we are focused on improving working capital and inventory turnover.

However, we remain comfortable with finished goods inventory levels as the inventory composition continues to skew to high margin evergreen finished goods.

Jonathan Sinclair: We ended Q4 with cash of CAD 286.5 million compared to CAD 287.7 million at the end of the comparative quarter. Net debt, including capitalized leases, was CAD 468.1 million compared to CAD 333.8 million at the end of the prior year quarter. We're very comfortable with net debt leverage of 1.7 times adjusted EBITDA at the end of the quarter. The increase in net debt was primarily due to increased lease liabilities on retail expansion as well as of course, as the financing needs of the Canada Goose Japan. During the quarter, we repurchased a little over 407,000 subordinate voting shares for a total cash consideration of CAD 10 million. Now turning to our outlook.

Jonathan Sinclair: We ended Q4 with cash of CAD 286.5 million compared to CAD 287.7 million at the end of the comparative quarter. Net debt, including capitalized leases, was CAD 468.1 million compared to CAD 333.8 million at the end of the prior year quarter. We're very comfortable with net debt leverage of 1.7x adjusted EBITDA at the end of the quarter. The increase in net debt was primarily due to increased lease liabilities on retail expansion as well as of course, as the financing needs of the Canada Goose Japan. During the quarter, we repurchased a little over 407,000 subordinate voting shares for a total cash consideration of CAD 10 million. Now turning to our outlook.

and raw material inventory levels were down 15 cents on the prior year. We ended Q4 with cash of $286.5 million compared to $287.7 million at the end of the comparative border.

Net debt, including capitalized leases, was $468.1 million compared to $333.8 million at the end of the prior quarter.

We're very comfortable with net debt leverage of 1.7 times adjusted EBITDA at the end of the course.

The increase in net debt was primarily due to increased lease liabilities on retail expansion.

as well as, of course, as the financing needs of the Japan joint venture. During the quarter, we repurchased a little over 407,000 subordinate voting shares for total cash consideration.

Jonathan Sinclair: We expect FY24 revenue to be between CAD 1.4 and 1.5 billion. This assumes that the macroeconomic environment does not worsen in any of our geographies. DTC revenue is anticipated to drive this growth and comprise mid- to high-70s% of total revenue through the addition of new stores and stronger comparable sales growth. We're targeting 16 permanent retail stores and for them to be fully operational in H2. Approximately half are slated to open in Asia Pacific, with the vast majority of the remainder concentrated in the US. This assumes DTC comparable sales growth in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Excluding Mainland China, comparable sales growth is assumed in the negative low single to high single digits.

Jonathan Sinclair: We expect FY2024 revenue to be between CAD 1.4 and 1.5 billion. This assumes that the macroeconomic environment does not worsen in any of our geographies. DTC revenue is anticipated to drive this growth and comprise mid- to high-70s% of total revenue through the addition of new stores and stronger comparable sales growth. We're targeting 16 permanent retail stores and for them to be fully operational in H2. Approximately half are slated to open in Asia Pacific, with the vast majority of the remainder concentrated in the US. This assumes DTC comparable sales growth in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Excluding Mainland China, comparable sales growth is assumed in the negative low single to high single digits.

of $10 million. Now turning to our outlook, we expect fiscal 24 revenue to be between $1.4 and $1.5 billion.

This assumes that the macroeconomic environment does not worsen in any of our geographies.

DTC revenue is anticipated to drive this growth and comprise mid to high 70s as a percent of total revenue through the addition of new stores and stronger comparable sales growth.

We're targeting 16 permanent retail stores and for them to be fully operational in the second half of the year.

approximately half as late as it opened in Asia Pacific, with the vast majority of the remainder concentrated in the US.

This assumes TTC comparable sales growth in the mid single digits to mid teens.

Excluding mainland China, comparable sales growth is assumed in the negative low single to high single digits.

Jonathan Sinclair: Including expected revenue from our new travel retail channel, we assume a 6% wholesale revenue decline as we focus on expanding our retail store network as well as our ongoing editing and upgrading of wholesale partners. We expect our wholesale door count to decline approximately 6%, leaving it at around 60% of the size of the network at the time of our IPO. The challenges wholesale faces are sector-wide, and hence we have, as always, managed the demand and continue to supply less than we are asked to keep the channel healthy and clean. This also gives us the space and opportunity to lean further into our DTC expansion, where it creates further scope for margin expansion.

Including expected revenue from our new travel retail channel, we assume a 6% wholesale revenue decline as we focus on expanding our retail store network as our ongoing editing and upgrading of wholesale partners.

We expect our wholesale door count to decline approximately 6%, leaving it at around 60% of the size of the network at the time of our IPO. The challenges wholesale faces are sector-wide, and hence we have, as always, a

manage the demand and continue to supply less than we are asked to keep the channel healthy and clean. This also gives us the space and opportunity to lean further into our DTC expansion.

Jonathan Sinclair: We expect the percentage of revenue generated across the quarters to follow a similar pattern to fiscal 2023, with Q1 at 5%, Q2 at 20%, half the business in Q3, and the rest in Q4. This is anticipated to change in the next few years as we create new and expand existing categories for more all-season relevance. I will say we are very familiar with, and adjusted to, the current shape of the revenue split. We assume consolidated gross margin will be in the high 60s% as a percentage of total revenue, with DTC and wholesale gross margins remaining stable in the high 70s% and mid- to high 40s% respectively. Moving to profitability, we expect adjusted EBIT of CAD 210 to 240 million for a margin of 15% to 16%.

where it creates further scope for margin expansion. We expect the percentage of revenue generated across the quarters to follow a similar pattern to fiscal 2023 Q1 at 5%, Q2 at 20%, half the business in Q3 and the rest in Q4. This is anticipated to change in the next few years.

as we create, new and expand existing categories for more all-season relevance.

Well I will say we are very familiar with and adjusted to the current shape of the revenue split.

We assume consolidated gross margin will be in the high 60s as a percentage of total revenue.

with DTC and wholesale gross margins remaining stable in the high 70s and mid to high 40s respectively.

Moving to profitability, we expected adjusted EBIT of $210 to $240 million for a margin of 15 to 16%.

Jonathan Sinclair: In fiscal 2024, we plan to invest in talent, technology, and of course in our store network as we accelerate the expansion of our retail footprint. Flowing through, we expect adjusted EPS per diluted share of CAD 1.20 to 1.48, and that assumes an effective tax rate in the low 20s% as a percentage of income before tax. We assume weighted average diluted shares of 106.3 million, and we do not consider any incremental share buyback activity. As you'll recall, we recently launched the transformation program as we first introduced it at our investor day in February. This is a multi-phase, multi-year program intended on achieving meaningful change for the business, which is right at the beginning of its journey. It spans stores, sourcing, products, organization, marketing, and technology and is thus far reaching in its scope.

In fiscal 24, we plan to invest in talent technology and of course in our store network as we accelerate the expansion of our retail footprint.

Blowing through, we expect adjusted EPS per diluted share of $1.20 to $1.48.

And that assumes an effective tax rate in the low 20s and some percentage of income before tax.

We assume weighted average diluted shares of 106.3 million, and we do not consider any incremental share buyback activity.

As you'll recall, we recently launched the Transformation Programme as we first introduced it as our investor date in February .

This is a multi-phase, multi-year program intended on achieving meaningful change for the business, which is right at the beginning of its journey.

It spans stores, sourcing, products, organization, marketing and technology.

Jonathan Sinclair: We expect it will contribute gradually and increasingly to our margin journey, consistent with the CAD 150 million goal we outlined in February. Now, we're two months into our program and therefore at this stage we're about setting ourselves up with the work on each stream, so it's a bit too soon to include any benefits in our fiscal 2024 outlook. As we progress, we expect to incur a number of one-time costs associated with external support, and other implementation costs. Lastly, I will cover our outlook for Q1. We expect total revenue of CAD 70 to 80 million, adjusted EBIT loss of CAD 115 to 105 million, and that flows down to an adjusted net loss per basic share of CAD 0.89 to 0.82.

and is thus far-reaching in its scope.

We expect it will contribute gradually and increasingly to our margin journey.

consistent with the $150 million goal we outlined in February .

Now, we're two months into our program.

And therefore at this stage we're about setting ourselves up with the work on each stream. So it's a bit too soon to include any benefits in our Fiscal 24 outlook.

As we progress, we expect to incur a number of one-time costs.

associated with external support and other implementation costs. Lastly, I will cover our outlook for the first quarter.

We expect total revenue of $70 to $80 million.

Adjusted EBIT loss of $115 to $105 million.

Jonathan Sinclair: Now to give the top line some context, while wholesale is expected to be lower overall, we're working with our wholesale partners on product timing and expect some shift will occur from Q1 into Q2. However, the key point here is that DTC revenue growth is expected to be strong, with comparable growth in the high teens to low twenties. I can underscore our confidence in this regard. Even if this is a smaller quarter, we are pleased to see encouraging momentum in our DTC networks across all regions in Q1 as of Sunday night. Of particular note, Asia Pacific DTC comparable sales growth has just entered triple digits. Granted that this is against easier comps, but we believe that there is no question that it signals brand strength and a good likelihood of sustained momentum as the region enjoys the full retail experience free from restrictions.

And that flows down to an adjusted net loss per basic share of 89 to 82 cents.

Now to give the top lines some context, while wholesale is expected to be lower overall,

We're working with our wholesale partners on product timing.

and expect some shifts will occur from Q1 into Q2. However, the key point here is that DTC revenue growth is expected to be strong, with comparable growth in the high teens to low 20s.

I can underscore our confidence in this regard. Even if this is a smaller quarter, we are pleased to see encouraging momentum in our DTC networks across all regions in quarter one as of Sunday night. With particular notes

Asia Pacific DTC comparable sales growth.

has just entered triple digits, granted that this is against easier comps, but we believe that there is no question that it signals brand strength and a good likelihood of sustained momentum.

as the region enjoys the full retail experience.

Jonathan Sinclair: Despite a tougher macroeconomic backdrop in the US, our new stores have still managed to approach or exceed our sales density targets. More stores to come here this year as we are significantly under-penetrated and we have so much demand to cover. We have seen EMEA retail progress meaningfully. We look forward to seeing these stores further establish their presence. You heard us talk about our confidence and ambition in February for this business. This year is step one of our plan, and we are so excited for the year ahead and beyond. There is no shortage of opportunities we plan to seize, and we're ready. We're focused on executing on our strategic pillars, on our luxury brand positioning, and on implementing our transformation program to generate profitable growth consistent with the goals we shared. With that, I'll pass it over to the operator to begin Q&A.

from restrictions. Despite a tougher macroeconomic backdrop in the US

our new stores

have still managed to approach or exceed our sales density targets.

more stores to come here this year as we are significantly under-penetrated and we have so much demand to cover.

We have seen EMEA retail progress meaningfully. We look forward to seeing these stores further establish their presence.

You heard us talk about our confidence and ambition in February for this business.

This year is step one of our plan.

And we are so excited for the year ahead and beyond.

There is no shortage of opportunities we plan to see, and we're ready. We're focused on executing on our strategic pillars.

on our luxury brand positioning and on implementing our transformation program to generate profitable growth consistent with the goals we shared.

Operator: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Our first question comes from Oliver Chen with TD Cowen. You may proceed.

And with that, I'll pass it over to the operator to begin Q&A.

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again.

Oliver Chen: Hi, Dani and Jonathan. You had really encouraging momentum in China. How did that proceed, relative to your expectations and what's assumed in terms of the guidance? It looks like it's trending better, but I'm sure there's different factors around the volatility. And then previously on the US, you saw some conversion rate issues. It sounds like the US is still cautious. Are you expecting a fair degree of volatility to continue in the US? And then lastly, just as we think about gross margins in the overall year ahead, what's embedded in terms of price increases and/or things we should know, that may be recurring or non-recurring in terms of key overall or specific drivers? Thanks a lot.

Our first question comes from Oliver Chen with TD Cowen. You may proceed.

Hi Danny and Jonathan you had really encouraging momentum in China how did that proceed relative to your expectations and what's assumed in terms of the guidance it looks like it's turning better but I'm sure there's different factors around the volatility and then previously on the US

You saw some conversion rate issues. It sounds like the US is still cautious. Are you expecting a fair degree of volatility to continue in the US? Lastly, as we think about gross margins in the overall year ahead, what's embedded in terms of price increases and or things we should know?

that may be recurring or non-recurring in terms of key overall or specific drivers. Thanks a lot. Hey, Oliver. Thanks for your questions, Danny. China, we're really encouraged obviously by our first quarter. As you know, Q3, when the...

Dani Reiss: Hey, Oliver. Thanks for the questions, Dani. China, we're really encouraged, obviously by our Q1. You know, as you know, Q3 when the lockdowns and zero-COVID was lifted, that really impacted us in a negative way 'cause of the timing of that. We really saw that rebound in a very strong way in Q4, and that underscores you know, our belief in our brand and our brand's right in the Chinese market. You know, we host a good number of retail locations in China at the moment. You know, we expect the operating environment there to continue to get better. We're excited about the year ahead.

on the lockdowns and zero COVID was lifted that really impacted us in a negative way because of the timing of that and we really saw that rebound in a very strong way in Q4 and that underscores our belief in our brand and our brands in the Chinese market. A good number of

of retail locations in China at the moment. And we expect the operating environment there to continue to be better. We're excited about the year ahead. I think that, you know,

Dani Reiss: I think that, you know, when looking at the United States market, you know, it's rebounding nicely, you know, at the end of Q4 and into Q1 of this year, and so we're very optimistic about that. Lots of opportunity in white space in the United States. I don't know. Carrie, do you wanna add on to that?

to locations in China at the moment and we expect the operating environment there to continue to be better and we're excited about the year ahead. I think that when looking at...

United States market, it's rebounding nicely at the end of the fourth quarter and into Q1 of this year and so we're very optimistic about that. Lots of opportunity in West Coast and United States.

Carrie Baker: Yeah, I think, I mean, there's tons of opportunity. Again, I've said this before, we're still really early in our journey. We've got lots of stores planned. There's lots of upside, I think, on e-com. We are treading carefully. The macro environment still is what it is in the US, so we're being conservative, but there's plenty of upside and reason to be optimistic.

Yeah, I think there's tons of opportunity again. I've said this before, we're still really early in our journey. We've got lots of stores planned. There's lots of upside I think on e-comm. We are treading carefully. The macro environment still is what it is in the US. So we're being conservative, but there's plenty of upside and reason to be optimistic.

Jonathan Sinclair: I think when it comes to gross margin, we have a very established way of managing this. I always refer to it as our algorithm. We keep our channel margins more or less in balance. Certainly over the course of a year, you get a bit of the noise quarter to quarter, but over the course of the year, we expect them to stay in balance. You know, we typically see pricing mid single digits over time. Maybe it's mid to high at the moment. We fully expect our gross margins to stay where they are in terms of the channel split of them, and we don't see any particular headwinds there. Obviously, there'll be some impact of channel mix in the overall consolidated gross margin.

I think when it comes to gross margin, we have a very established way of managing this. I always refer to it as our algorithm. We keep our channel margins more or less in balance. Certainly over the course of a year, you get a bit of noise quarter to quarter, but over the course of a year, you get a bit of noise.

we expect them to stay in balance. We typically see pricing mid single digits over time, maybe it's mid to high at the moment. We fully expect our gross margins to stay where they are in terms of

the channel split of them and we don't see any particular headwinds there. Obviously there'll be some impact of channel mix in the overall consolidated gross margin.

Oliver Chen: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Brooke Roach with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Brooke Rose with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.

Brooke Roach: Good morning, and thank you for taking our question. I was wondering if we could dive a little bit deeper into the assumptions that are embedded at the high end versus the low end of the revenue guidance range. Is the largest swing factor still driven by China as it was in FY23? As you think about the sequential stabilization that you've seen in North America in Q1 to date, are you forecasting organic growth in North America for the year? Thank you.

Good morning and thank you for taking our question.

I was wondering if we could dive a little bit deeper into the assumptions that are embedded at the high end versus the low end of the revenue guidance range. Is the largest swing factor still driven by China as it was in FY23? And as you think about the sequential stabilization that you've seen in North America in one queue to date, are you forecasting organic growth in North America for the year? Thank you. Thank you.

Jonathan Sinclair: Thanks, Brooke. I think the way to think about this is that the range is clearly all about DTC. With it being the vast majority of the business and the order book being set, it inevitably, that's true. The range, I think a good part of it will be in China, but only because a good part of our DTC is in China. Equally, that range applies to other markets. You see that in the way that we've articulated the guidance and the assumptions around it in terms of the DTC ranges. What I will say is that we are expecting some comparable growth in all of the regions, and therefore, that by definition, extends to US.

Thanks Brooke. I think the way to think about this is that the range is clearly all about PTC. With it being the vast majority of the business and the order book being set, inevitably that's true.

The range, I think a good part of it will be in China, but only because a good part of our DDC is in China. Equally, that range applies to other markets and you see that in the way that we've articulated the guidance and the assumptions around it in terms of the...

Jonathan Sinclair: I think that's a fairly responsible approach to all of this. You know, we don't see this as something that's got very audacious assumptions behind it at all. We think this is appropriately pitched.

a fairly responsible approach to all of this. We don't see this as something that's got very audacious assumptions behind it at all. We think this is appropriately pitched.

Dani Reiss: Maybe I'll add a little bit of context, high-level context around the assumptions. You know, we're assuming also in our guidance that international tourist levels remain more or less at the levels they are right now. We're not forecasting or anticipating them to go back to pre-pandemic levels at this point. That's you know, in that regard, we've taken the cautious approach and we believe the responsible approach to how we've guided. I think that's an important upside to note.

Yeah, and if maybe I'll add a little bit of context, high level context around the assumptions. We're assuming also in that international tourist levels remain more or less at the levels that are right now. We're not forecasting or anticipating them to go back to pre-pandemic levels at this point. So in that regard, we've...

We've taken the cautious approach and we believe the responsible approach to how we've got it and I think that's an important upside to note. What I can add to that is also that we are seeing very healthy comps at the moment and I shared in my prepared remarks some content.

Jonathan Sinclair: What I can add to all of that is also that we are seeing very healthy comps at the moment. You know, I shared in my prepared remarks some context around what we're seeing in Asia Pacific. Actually, we're encouraged by what we're seeing in all of our regions.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo. You may proceed.

[Analyst] (Wells Fargo): Yes. Hi, good morning. This is Kate on for Ike. I guess I was hoping you could elaborate on the growth you're seeing in Asia Pacific. You noted triple digit comps quarter to date. I guess honing in on China, are you seeing productivity in the region, you know, approach or even exceeding pre-COVID levels? Just trying to get some context there. While you are noting the expectations for growth, the comp growth in the region in FY24, what are you thinking about in terms of productivity relative to pre-COVID levels? I have one follow-up.

[Company Representative] (Wells Fargo): Yes. Hi, good morning. This is Kate on for Ike. I guess I was hoping you could elaborate on the growth you're seeing in Asia Pacific. You noted triple digit comps quarter to date. I guess honing in on China, are you seeing productivity in the region, you know, approach or even exceeding pre-COVID levels? Just trying to get some context there. While you are noting the expectations for growth, the comp growth in the region in FY24, what are you thinking about in terms of productivity relative to pre-COVID levels? I have one follow-up.

with Wells Fargo, you may proceed.

Yes, hi, good morning. This is Kay Don for Ike. I guess I was hoping you could elaborate on the growth you're seeing in Asia PAC, you know, the triple digit comps quarter to date. I guess honing in on China, are you seeing productivity in the region, you know, approach or even exceeding pre-COVID levels?

Just trying to get some context there. While you are noting the expectations for growth, comp growth in the region in FY24, what are you thinking about in terms of productivity relative to pre-COVID levels? Then I have one follow-up. One follow-up.

Jonathan Sinclair: pre-pandemic, as you may recall, it's a very difficult conversation for us because pre-pandemic we had exactly three stores in mainland China and in Shenyang, Beijing, and Shanghai. It's not very easy for us to describe that. What I will say to try and give you some context, I mean, certainly as I look down the list of the store performances, the one thing I will say is, you know, we've got a very healthy spread between double digits and triple digits in terms of every single store that's growing.

I think so.

Pre-pandemic is, as you may recall, is a very difficult conversation for us because pre-pandemic we had exactly three stores in mainland China and in Shenyang, Beijing and Shanghai. So it's not very...

easy for us to describe that. But what I will say to try and give you some context, I mean certainly as I look down the list of the store performances, the one thing I will say is, we've got a very healthy spread between

Jonathan Sinclair: I would also remind you that in the method by which we calculate all of this, we exclude from this year sales on days where we were closed last year. Therefore, that, you know, we're not giving ourselves a super easy base, even if obviously the numbers were smaller and traffic was heavily impaired. What I think as we look at the sales density, the productivity from the stores and the different regions, Asia's top of the tree. That's really encouraging to us. You know, we're seeing really strong performances there. The economics are robust and, you know, we're very encouraged by that.

double digits and triple digits in terms of every single store that's growing. And I would also remind you that in the method by which we calculate all of this, we exclude from this year sales on days where we were closed last year.

So therefore, we're not giving ourselves a super easy base even if obviously the numbers were smaller and traffic was heavily impaired. I think as we look at the sales density, the productivity from the stores and the different regions, Asia's top of the tree.

And that's really encouraging to us. We're seeing really strong performances there. The economics are robust and we're very encouraged by that. At the same time, we're also seeing good, strong overall performance in our sales density.

Jonathan Sinclair: At the same time, we're also seeing good, strong overall performance in our sales density, which keeps us at and above our guide, you know, our pass mark, if you like, for that I shared on invest.

which keeps us at and above our guide, our pass mark if you like.

and above our guide, our pass mark if you like, for that I've put that I've shared on Inver.

[Analyst] (Wells Fargo): Okay. That's really helpful. Then Jonathan, just as we're thinking about the EBIT progress through the years, you know, you gave some comments in the release about how we should think about revenue seasonality throughout the year. How should we think about EBIT seasonality through the year, especially just given, you know, you guys are anticipating some EBIT margin declines in Q1? That would be helpful just from a modeling perspective.

[Company Representative] (Wells Fargo): Okay. That's really helpful. Then Jonathan, just as we're thinking about the EBIT progress through the years, you know, you gave some comments in the release about how we should think about revenue seasonality throughout the year. How should we think about EBIT seasonality through the year, especially just given, you know, you guys are anticipating some EBIT margin declines in Q1? That would be helpful just from a modeling perspective.

Okay, that's really helpful. And then Jonathan, just as we're thinking about the EBIT progress through the years, you gave some comments in the release about how we should think about revenue seasonality throughout the year. How should we think about EBIT seasonality through the year, especially just given you guys are anticipating some EBIT margin declines into the year?

Jonathan Sinclair: Yeah. I think realistically, Kate, you're going to see the EBIT margin being very heavily driven by the DTC performance, and that inevitably skews it into the H2. That's the way to think about this. You've seen it in Q4, you know, albeit small numbers, but you see the margin coming up from the trend that we were seeing before. I think that the reality is that we, with the majority of our DTC business, probably always gonna be in the H2 of the year, given the nature of what we are. I think you're always going to skew as the productivity increases, you will skew margin growth in the H2 of the year.

And you've seen it in Q4. It will be of small numbers, but you see the margin coming up from the trend that we were seeing before. And I think that the reality is that we, with the majority of our DTC business, are seeing

probably always going to be in the second half of the year, given the nature of what we are, then I think you're always going to skew as the productivity increases. You will skew margin growth in the second half of the year.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Jonathan Komp with Baird. You may proceed.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jonathan Cump with Baird. You may proceed. What do you see

Jonathan Komp: Yeah. Hi, good morning. Thank you. Jonathan, I just wanted to follow up on your thinking around the EBIT margin guidance for the year. Yeah, I know in the past you've talked about incremental flow through rates, especially when revenue is driven by the D2C business. Could you maybe just give us more context this year, maybe why you wouldn't see more positive developments in the EBIT margin? If you could maybe just quantify some of the investments you're making in the various growth initiatives you outlined.

Hi, good morning. Thank you. Jonathan, I just wanted to follow up on your thinking around the EBIT margin guidance for the year. I know in the past you've talked about incremental flow-through rates, especially when revenue is driven by the DTC business. You maybe just...

give us more context this year, maybe why you want to see more positive developments in the EBIT margin? And if you could maybe just quantify some of the investments you're making in the various growth initiatives you outlined. I think the way to think about this is that we're making investments in

Jonathan Sinclair: I think the way to think about this is that, you know, we're making investments in different areas, whether it's in talent, whether it's in technology, obviously in the stores themselves. You know, we've got a heavy store opening program this year, and whilst once the stores are open, they're very profitable. We've also got to think that that comes with a bunch of pre-opening costs, which we absorb these days into our operating cost base. You know, we reached that conclusion last year that we needed to address that. I don't think any of this affects the underlying economics and earnings model that we're talking about. What do I mean by that?

different areas, whether it's in talent, whether it's in technology, obviously in the stores themselves. We've got a heavy store opening program this year and whilst once the stores are open, they're very profitable, we've also got to think that that comes with a bunch of pre-opening costs, which we've absorbed these days into our operating cost base. And we reached that conclusion last year that we needed to address that. I don't think any of this...

Jonathan Sinclair: You know, we talk about a 40% plus margin in our stores. That's where we end up. That's certainly the way in which we gate them through in terms of new store proposals. The fact that we still make double the revenue and triple the profit in DTC versus in wholesale remains the case. Therefore at the margin, it's always going to be accreted. It's just that we have a disproportionate burden this year of opening 16 stores, and 16 stores is a third of our retailer estate at the minute. That's a fairly significant number.

the profit in DTC versus in wholesale remains the case and therefore at the margin.

it's always going to be accreted. It's just that we have a disproportionate burden this year of opening 16 stores, and 16 stores is a third of our retail estate at the minute. So that's a fairly significant number.

Dani Reiss: Yeah, I'll just add on to that. Similar to my last point is, you know, we do have a lot of stores that are open. A lot of our stores that we opened, we opened during COVID. The opportunity to see them operate at their full potential is a very exciting opportunity. You know, obviously we had and we continue to have very high expectations for all of our stores once traffic returns back to normalized levels, which is yet to do. Those are numbers that are not open yet.

Yeah, also there's a lot on site and similar to my last point is, you know, we do have a lot of stores that are open, a lot of our stores that we opened, we opened during COVID and the opportunity to see them operate at their full potential is a very exciting opportunity and you know, obviously we had and we continue to have very high expectations for all of our stores once.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Robbie Holmes with Bank of America. You may proceed.

Alex Perry: Hi, this is Alex Perry for Robbie Holmes. Thanks for taking our questions here. Just first, can you talk about how we should expect product mix to impact gross margins this year, especially with the sneaker launch and the accelerated growth of the non-down categories? Maybe just give us a little, you know, color on sort of margins by categories versus the heavyweight down products. And then I have a follow-up. Thanks.

of America you may proceed.

Hi, this is Alex Perry on for Robby Yomes. Thanks for taking our questions here. Just first, can you talk about how we should expect product mix to impact gross margins this year, especially with the sneaker launch and the accelerated growth of the non-down categories? Maybe just give us a little color on margins by categories versus the heavyweight down products.

Dani Reiss: Yeah, thanks. Thanks for your question. Overall, our new product categories are not going to negatively impact our margins in any way. You know, you mentioned sneakers and other, which is, we're very excited about launching those later on this spring, early summer. You know, these are small categories at this point, so their margins are not material to our overall margin by the time, and by the time these categories become material, they will be in line with the rest of our margins. That's the way we build new categories. We're very excited about all of our new categories, which are performing well.

And then I have a follow up. Thanks. Yeah, thanks for your question. Overall, I don't think... Our new product categories are not going to negatively impact our margins in any way. You mentioned sneakers and other... We're very excited about watching those later on.

spring, early summer and these are small categories at this point so their margins are not material to our overall margin by the time these categories become material they will be in line with the rest of our margins. That's the way we build new categories and we're very excited about all of our new categories are performing well.

Dani Reiss: All of our apparel in particular, including fleece and knitwear, has been doing really, really well across all geographies, and that's very encouraging for us. Footwear is also from a nice base, a small base, has grown quite nicely, and we're excited about the future of footwear as well.

apparel in particular, including fleece and knitwear has been doing really, really well across all geographies and that's very encouraging for us. Footwear is also from a nice base or a small base has grown quite nicely and we're excited about the future of footwear as well.

Jonathan Sinclair: I think one of the questions that we've been asked over the years, and it's a very important question, is as we develop the business beyond just heavyweight down, can we sustain the gross margins? I think the answer, as far as I can see it, is absolutely. Because if you think about it today, we've always said mid-70s, mid- to high 40s is the right way to think about our gross margin split between DTC and wholesale. That's where we are. Yet, heavyweight down is now less than two-thirds of our total business.

I think that one of the questions that we've been asked over the years and it's very it's a very important question is as we develop a business beyond just heavy weight down can we sustain the gross margins and I think the answer as far as I can see it is absolutely because you think about it today

We've always said mid-70s, mid- to high-40s is the right way to think about our gross margin split between DTC and wholesale.

Jonathan Sinclair: By definition, we're doing what we said we would, which is to balance the gross margins so that we keep them in the channel, and we reinvest the tailwinds that we create in the product development, both in new and existing categories, to keep the earnings in balance. I think that you can take a lot of comfort from the fact that this isn't a sort of a single point in time statement, but this has been proven over a number of years now that we've held the margins in the same place while we've been growing the business and diversifying the products of it.

That's where we are. And yet, heavyweight down is now less than two-thirds of our total business.

So, by definition, we're doing what we said we would, which is to balance the gross margins so that we keep them in the channel and we reinvest the tailwinds that we create in the product developments, both in new and existing categories, to keep the earnings in balance.

I think that you can take a lot of comfort from the fact that this isn't a single point in time statement, but this has been proven over a number of years now that we've held the margins in the same place while we've been growing the business and diversifying the product software.

Alex Perry: Perfect. That's really helpful. Then just my follow-up is, what do you think is driving the strong exit rate in the US and at the end of the quarter and then quarter to date? What is sort of expected to drive the comp store growth in the US? Is it the sort of momentum you're seeing in the new products? How are you thinking about, you know, comp store growth in the US, for the year? Thanks.

Perfect, that's really helpful. Just my follow-up is, what do you think is driving the strong exit rate in the U.S. at the end of the quarter and then quarter to date? What is expected to drive the comp store growth in the U.S.? Is it the momentum you're seeing in the new products? How are you thinking about comp store growth in the U.S. for the year? Thanks.

Jonathan Sinclair: The way we think about it, and I'll start. Carrie can probably add something to this. The key here is that, yeah, we're on an improving trend in the US. We reported that the end of Q3 was difficult. The beginning of Q4 was difficult, and it's been gradually improving since. We're not being super ambitious for this year in the US. We're looking at the impact of pricing and probably little else, because we think that for this year, the market's going to be a little bit more challenging in the US because of the macroeconomics.

I think we the way we we think about it and I'll start and carry probably add something to this, but the key here is that yeah we're on an improving trend in the US. We reported that the end of Q.

3 was difficult, the beginning of Q4 was difficult, and it's been gradually improving since. We're not being super ambitious for this year in the US.

We're looking at the impact of pricing and probably little else because we think that for this year the market's going to be a little bit more challenging in the US because of the macro economics.

Carrie Baker: Yes. I'll just add that to product mix, we're seeing good, healthy response to new categories, as Dani was talking about. Apparel is growing really well. Footwear is growing well. Again, we're not counting on international tourism coming back, but we're seeing momentum both in store and online, which is great. We have, you know, every reason to be optimistic, but we're not counting on that as we grow. In terms of when you look at the store, what we're also excited about is just the number of stores. We talk about our Quest West a lot. That is, you'll see that in action this year. We're opening new stores in new climates with new customers, attracting that, you know, a different customer that's looking for maybe a different product.

Yes, I'll just add that to product mix we're seeing good healthy response to new categories of Danny was talking about apparel growing really well, footwear is growing well. Again, we're not counting on international tourism coming back but we're seeing momentum both in store and online which is great. We have...

every reason to be optimistic, but we're not counting on that as we grow. In terms of when you look at the store, what we're also excited about is just the number of stores. We talk about our Quest West a lot. You'll see that in action this year. We're opening new stores in new climates with new customers, attracting that different customer that's looking for maybe a different product. We're excited to see how that is already starting.

Operator: We're excited to see how that is already starting to come to fruition. Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one, too, on your telephone. Please limit yourself to one question. Our next question comes from Mark Petrie with CIBC. You may proceed.

Operator: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one, too, on your telephone. Please limit yourself to one question. Our next question comes from Mark Petrie with CIBC. You may proceed.

Mark Petrie: Hey, good morning. Jonathan, first, just hoping you can clarify the comp assumptions in the outlook. I think in the Q&A, you said you were expecting positive comps in regions, but then I think in your script, I think I heard a comment about negative low single digit comps ex China. I'm just, I'm sure I'm hearing something wrong, but if you could just clarify, that'd be helpful. I have a follow-up.

Our next question comes from Mark Petrie with CIBC. You may proceed.

Good morning Jonathan. First just hoping you can clarify the comp assumptions in the outlook. I think in the Q&A you said you were expecting positive comps in regions but then I think in your script I think I heard a comment about negative low.

Jonathan Sinclair: Yes, I think we're talking about robust assumptions on our comps for both in Q1 and for the full year. With what I've said, you should just expect sort of mid-single digits to mid-teens for the full year. If you back out China from that, because obviously China's a very much faster growing geography than in China, then what you're looking at is a range of low negative to high single-digit positive comps. And you may not have heard the positive in what I said for the range outside.

single digit comps ex-China. So I'm just I'm sure I'm hearing something wrong, but if you could just clarify that'd be helpful Then I have a follow. Yeah.

Yes, I think that it's what... so we're talking about robust assumptions on our comps.

for both in Q1 and for the full year. And what I've said is you should expect sort of mid-semes, mid-teens for the full year.

And if you back out China from that, because obviously China is a very much faster growing geography, mainland China, then what you're looking at is a range of low, negative to high single digit comps positive.

And you may not have heard the positive in what I said for the range outside. And so, you know, inevitably, and this is what I was describing in answer to an earlier question which is, we don't just see the range this year applying to China, but because of the macro we think the range.

Jonathan Sinclair: This is what I was describing in answer to an earlier question, which is we don't just see the range this year applying to China, but because of the macro, we think the range probably applies to other VTC geographies as well.

Mark Petrie: Yeah, that's helpful. Thank you. I guess it's probably a bit of a tough question to answer, just given sort of the expected shifts in your business over the next few years through your outlook, through your aspiration period. At a high level, can you just talk about how your store productivity assumptions for fiscal 2024 would compare to what you've embedded in your fiscal 2028 targets?

probably applies to other DTC geographers as well. Yeah, that's helpful, thank you. And I guess it's probably a bit of a tough question to answer just given sort of the expected shifts in your business over the next few years through your aspiration period. But,

At a high level, can you just talk about how your store productivity assumptions for fiscal 24 would compare to what you've embedded in your fiscal 28 targets? Well, by definition, they're a step on a journey.

Jonathan Sinclair: Well, by definition they're a step on a journey. So we, you know, I've talked today about the fact that we are above our benchmark of $4,000 a sq ft. I have talked about the fact that we're looking for comp growth being positive. We do not see that as an end at the end of this year. That's for us something which we see as a repeating mechanism and a repeating way of growing the business, year over year over year. If you think about the rate at which we're growing this year, and you flow it through, the chances are that that's the sort of way to think about how we develop this business, between now and say fiscal 2028.

So, you know, I've talked today about the fact that we are above our benchmark of $4,000 a square foot and I have talked about the fact that we are looking for comp growth being positive. But we do not see that as an end at the end of this year.

that for us is something which we see as a repeating mechanism or a repeating way of growing the business year over year over year. So if you think about the rate at which we're growing this year and you flow it through, the chances are that that's the sort of way to think about how we develop this business.

Dani Reiss: Yeah. If I may just add on top. I think that, you know, yeah, clearly we expect that, as we move forward towards fiscal 2028 and even sooner than that, we expect to see our stores continue to perform better and better. That's, you know, primarily due to one of the major factors, due to the return of international tourism back to its full state it was pre-pandemic. I know if you'll recall, we were approaching 25% EBIT margin at the time, and once tourist activity returns to that level again, there's no reason why we wouldn't be right back at that same margin percentage.

between now and say fiscal 28? Yeah, if I may just add on top, I think that we, clearly we expect that as we move forward towards fiscal 28 and even sooner than that, we expect to see our stores continue to perform better and better and that's.

primarily due to one of the major factors, due to the return of international tourism back to its full state it was pre-pandemic, how they clicked. I know if you recall, we were approaching 25% keep it margin at the time and once tourist.

So, that activity returns to that level again, there is no reason why we wouldn't be right back at that same margin percentage. So, we at this point are not predicting that's about to happen this year, but we definitely imagine that as the years go on, those numbers will come back in the kind of way. Thank you. Thanks very much, everyone.

Dani Reiss: You know, we at this point are not predicting that's about to happen this year, but we definitely imagine that, in the you know, as the years go on, those numbers will come back in that kind of way.

Mark Petrie: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Samuel Poser with Williams Trading. You may proceed.

Samuel Poser: Thank you for taking my questions. I just have two. One, Jonathan, can you just give us, you know, the interest expense for the year and for the quarter? Secondly, you had mentioned when the Japanese business changed, that it wasn't doing quite as well as what you anticipated. I wonder if you could give us an update on Japan.

Our next question comes from Samuel Poser with Williams Trading. You may proceed. You may proceed.

Thank you for taking my question. So I've had two. One, Jonathan, can you just give us the interest expense for the year and for the quarter? And secondly, you had mentioned when you took over the Japanese business chains that it wasn't doing quite as well as what you anticipated. I wonder if you could give us an update on Japan.

Jonathan Sinclair: By all means. The right way to think about our financing cost this year is sort of we're talking about round about the mid-thirties. It gets a bit of noise in there because there are various mechanisms we have to mark to market for the Japanese business, and some of that flows through there. If you like on an underlying basis, that's the way we think about it. Japan, I'll just make a few comments, and we're very encouraged. It actually came in slightly above where we thought.

By all means. So the right way to think about our financing cost this year is it's sort of we're talking about round about the mid-30s. It gets a bit of noise in there because there are various mechanisms we have to market for the Japanese.

business and some of that flows through there. But if you like on an underlying basis, that's the way we think about it. Japan, again I'll just make a few comments.

I wouldn't be very encouraged. It actually came in slightly above where we thought. I think we reduced our expectations and when we thought last time around we came in in the low 50s in terms of the size of the business last year. We've got great plans for this year. It's going great guns.

Jonathan Sinclair: I think we reduced our expectations and when we talked last time around, we came in the low 50s in terms of the size of the business last year. We've got great plans for this year. It's going great guns, more stores coming online. We're very excited to see that business develop. It's a market in good growth. The economics point in the right direction, and we're very excited about achieving our goals there together with our joint venture partner.

more stores coming online, so we're very excited to see that business develop. It's a market in good growth, the economics point in the right direction, and we're very excited about achieving our goals there together with our joint venture partner.

more stores coming online. So we're very excited to see that business develop. It's a market in good growth, the economics point in the right direction and we're very excited about achieving our goals there together with our joint venture partner. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

You.

F those.

Thanks for watching!

Will.

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