Q2 2023 Colgate Palmolive Co Earnings Call
Speaker 1: Good morning. Welcome to today's Colgate Palmole, 2023, Second Quarter Earnings Conference call.
Speaker 1: This call is being recorded and it's being Simulcast Live at www.coge.pomolive.com.
Speaker 1: Now for opening remarks, I'd like to turn this call over to Chief Investor Relations Officer and Executive Vice President, M&A, John Pache.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Allison. Good morning, and welcome to our second quarter, 2023 earnings release conference call. This is John Foshe. Today's conference call will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from these statements.
Speaker 2: please refer to the Q2 2023 earnings press release.
Speaker 2: and related prepared materials, and our most recent filings with the SEC, including our 2022 annual report on Form 10K, and subsequent SEC filings, all available on Colgate's website for discussion of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements.
Speaker 2: This conference call will also include a discussion of non- GAAP financial measures, including those identified in tables 4, 6, 7, 8, and 9 of the earnings press release.
Speaker 2: A full reconciliation to the corresponding GAF financial measures is included in the Q2 2023 earnings press release and is available on Colgate's website.
Speaker 2: Joining me on the call this morning are Noel Wallace, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, and Stan Sattula, Chief Financial Officer.
Speaker 2: No, we'll provide you with some thoughts on our Q2 results and our 2023 outlook, and we will then open it up for Q&A. No. Well, thanks, Sean. Good morning, everyone. So a few quick thoughts this morning on our strong quarter of top and bottom line growth.
Speaker 3: and clearly along with the improved 2023 outlook we provided.
Speaker 3: On the first quarter call, you'll recall I highlighted three priorities for the year. Driving organic shells growth as we face tougher comparisons.
Speaker 3: Executing on productivity and revenue growth management to fund brand investment while also delivering on our earnings targets and improving our cash flow performance.
Speaker 3: Well, not without his challenges and Q2 we made strong progress on all three of these.
Speaker 3: On organic sales growth, Q2 showed the strength of our global portfolio as we delivered our strongest quarterly growth on the 2-year stack basis since Q3 2008, with both organic volume and pricing growth accelerating on the 2-year stack basis.
Speaker 3: We delivered organic sales growth in all six divisions, and in each of our categories grew in the mid-single digits or higher.
Speaker 3: We are laser focused on returning to balanced organic sales growth and we believe the investments we are making combined with easier comparisons give us a path to improved volume growth going forward as we leverage increased brand support and innovation while still delivering profit growth. The strength of our revenue growth management efforts combined with our progress on funding and
Speaker 3: operating leverage even as we increased advertising spending by 20%.
Speaker 3: Combined with our gross margin expansion, we delivered 60 basis points of operating margin expansion in the quarter. This enabled us to deliver upside versus expectations in the quarter, despite continued pressure from below the line items, including the impact of higher interest rates and tax.
Speaker 3: As you've heard me say, it's this virtuous combination of growth-driven leverage, revenue growth management, cost containment, and productivity to drive investments in capabilities and brand building which drove the strong quality of this quarter's results.
Speaker 3: We believe it also lays the groundwork for our performance across the balance of the year and into the future. We Now
Speaker 3: And finally, our strong cash flow performance continued in the quarter, which is helping us offset some of these below the line headwinds.
Speaker 3: Free cash flow was up more than 50% in the quarter and is up more than 80% year-to-date through net income growth and improved working capital performance and pleasingly, particularly in inventories and payables.
Speaker 3: So I'm pleased with how we started the year, but I'm also well aware of the challenges and uncertainty ahead of us.
Speaker 3: Our goal is to deliver consistent, high quality, compounded top and bottom line growth to drive shareholder value.
Speaker 3: And I believe Kogae Pomol has the brands, the global footprint, and the people to deliver. So with that, I'll turn it over to the Q&A.
Speaker 1: You. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone.
Speaker 1: To withdraw your question, please press star then two.
Speaker 1: Please limit yourself to one question.
Speaker 1: If you have further questions, you may re-enter the question queue.
Speaker 1: Once again, it is star then one to ask a question.
Speaker 1: And our first question today will come from Darro Mascinion of Morgan Stanley . Please go ahead.
Speaker 4: Hey, good morning guys.
Speaker 5: Hey, Martin, Dara. Another impressive quarter of organic sales growth, and as you mentioned, the Kaggers accelerated on a multi-year basis, but it was driven by pricing more than entirely. And obviously from here, we're going into a period where we're cycling higher pricing.
Speaker 5: So can you just talk about conceptually at a high level, how you think about the balance of organic sales growth going forward, level of visibilities that volume can come back as pricing drops off. And maybe within that question also, if you could just touch on the global oral care share and
Speaker 5: the performance in the quarter and prospects going forward. That'd be helpful also. Thanks.
Speaker 3: Sure, thanks, Dara. Let me go back to a couple of the comments I made in my opening statement.
Speaker 3: and really talk about how we're trying to work to improve the quality of the PNL, which puts us in the best position to drive compounded long-term balance growth top and bottom line, which is what we've been talking about for quite some time. As you know, we're coming out of what has been the worst raw material environment in decades, so our plan is with a combination of the revenue of management we talked about, the discipline that we're putting...
Speaker 3: need the gross margin to fund the investment and capabilities and the brand building, which you certainly saw in the quarter. We want to grow margins while still investing behind our brands and sustain a consistent organic sales growth, which we're clearly demonstrating.
Speaker 3: The key to do is getting pricing in the P&L. We certainly focused our teams on the ground in that area because the depth and duration of this cost inflation that we're experiencing has been an issue and you simply can't do it with one round of pricing. It needs to be consistent and deliberate and purposeful. And now as we look at cost inflation slowing overall.
Speaker 3: there are still places where we see margin pressures, so of course we need to take additional pricing and this has had an impact on the volume.
Speaker 3: Maybe a couple examples. So China is a good example. We've taken pricing on our Holly and Hazel joint venture in order to improve profitability long-term to drive the necessary investments in digital, the premium innovation required in that market, and a continued shift to e-commerce. And as you know, China is a very difficult market in which to take pricing.
Speaker 3: And in the short term, that's had an impact on our volume through lower promotions and wholesaler inventories as we look to set the new pricing in the market. But the long term implications of not restoring margins are more problematic.
Speaker 3: I'd go on to North America as well, where we're working to improve the health of our business and our brands through shifting more consistent brand support from above the net revenue line to obviously into margin expansion. This will improve health of our brands and our P&L. We're seeing this play out in our non-promoted share, which is growing.
Speaker 3: So while we're delivering both sales and profit growth along with increases in brand support in the middle of the P&L, it's clearly a healthier way to drive the business.
Speaker 3: If I look at the hills business, we're still seeing high levels of cost inflation as you've heard us talk about in the first quarter, and gross margins are still down year over year. So we've taken additional pricing to get the right margin structure for this business for the long term. Much of the hill's volume decline in the quarter was in emerging markets.
Speaker 3: As much of the time as do to go to market changes or shipments that we had. The good news is email or your business and particularly there we were strong. US volumes were only down slightly in the quarter against a very difficult comparison with pricing as you saw up in the teens.
Speaker 3: But we're focused on getting Hills back to volume growth the right way. This is a business that responds very well to science-driven innovation and strong advertising. We want to make sure that it's well funded and through the gross margin expansion that you've seen. And Hills saw the biggest advertising increases in brand building in this quarter and will continue to fuel that investment.
Speaker 3: So I understand the importance of getting volume growth as you asked. We know we're all focused on that as you are, but as I said, we want to do that in a way that sets us up structurally long for long-term profitable growth. That means a good visibility towards restoring our gross margin to previous levels.
Speaker 3: To revenue growth management, the productivity that we've been talking about, well-funded advertising and the ability to drive operating leverage with the strong innovation that we're bringing to the market and healthier brands.
So with a lot of great work by Colgate people, we have gross margin, overheads, and logistics trending positively. We just finished the first half where we increased advertising by 17%. We have put additional pricing in place. We have strong innovation across all the divisions and categories, and we have second half volume comps.
that are easier by about 500 basis points. So we feel we're very well positioned.
So with that, let me turn it over to other questions.
Our next question will come from Philippe Follerni of City. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, good morning everyone. Just to follow up on the prior question, now you mentioned the need to take incremental pricing. Can you give us a little bit more color, which category country combination are you taking more pricing, what has been the response of our?
and generally like the magnitude relative to the prior price increases. Thank you. Sure.
Let me just come back to a quick finish on Dara's point. He asked about market shares. Market shares, global market shares are up on toothpaste around the world. Strong growth, obviously, in Europe . A little softness in North America, as you've seen in the scatter data, and we're obviously addressing that as we go into the back half.
Latin America shares look good. Asia shares are good. Africa shares look really, really strong. We're up or flat in all of the markets where we read shares there. So overall, oral toothpaste shares are pretty good. Felipe, on your question regarding the pricing, certainly in some of the higher inflationary markets, we will probably still see pricing in the back half of the year.
Take Turkey, take Argentina, take Pakistan in some of the other higher and facetion areas around the world. We took pricing in the second quarter in North America. Obviously that had some impact on volume in the quarter, but we'll see delivered and very focused pricing where we have margin pressure on the hills business.
Clearly we've seen ag prices accelerate through 2022 and into 23. So we're taking pricing, commensurate with that as we move into the back half. But it'll be more isolated and targeted. The bigger price increases are in the P&L. And as you heard us talk about, we took a lot of pricing in 2022.
About 58% of the pricing in the P&L this year is flow through from last year, so we still have a little bit to go, but most of it is in the P&L already.
Next question will come from Brian Spillane of Bank of America. Please go ahead. Hey, thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Hey, Nolan, maybe this ties back to Dara's question, but in the prepared remarks...
He talked about on a percentage of sales basis, SGNA would be up in North America, Europe , and Hills, to support volume acceleration. And I guess as we look through the results.
You know, it looks like it's been pretty good in Europe , like you've gained share. So maybe if you can, you know, for some context.
terms of that investment.
How much of it is, where is each of those geographies progressed relative to the investment? Is it right to read that you're having an impact in Europe and you still have some catch up to do in North America? I just want to get some color on that.
You know, I absolutely think, Brian . Yeah, I'll start with with Europe . Obviously, we've increased investment there and we're seeing terrific response to particularly the L-Mex and Meridol brands where we've elevated our investment there, but likewise on the Colgate brand. So a lot of the efforts that we've had on premium whitening.
have played out to drive incremental share in Europe . So that investment across that business is certainly playing out. But importantly, the investment in Europe is broader based than just oral care. We have a wonderful relaunch on Sanix that's underway across Europe . We're putting investment behind that.
We relaunched our supleen business in France, which is a big business for us, and we've launched the supleen hearts, which we're putting investment behind that. So I think what's important is with operating margins back to growth, it's giving us a lot more flexibility to support a wide array of brands, particularly in Europe , and that would be the case likewise.
in Latin America where we've obviously seen a little pick up exchange so on a local currency basis, we're getting more advertising. And I'd also point to the fact that we're getting more efficient and targeted with our advertising with some of our digital skills that we're implementing across the world. North America's taking a little bit more time. You certainly have seen.
And if you look at the attributes of the Colgate brand, particularly North America, we're seeing good movements in terms of how we measure the health of the equity. So good news there. Asia, likewise, good response. We've obviously seen a fall off on our biggest business, which is Darley, due to the price increase. But the Colgate business overall, where we've added more support similarly, is responding very, very well.
and we couldn't be more happy with the progress we're seeing in Africa on the oral care business with the elevated increase that we're seeing. You know advertising doesn't respond immediately, it takes it takes quarters after quarters of consistent growth and what's important back to the quality of the P&L is that with the quality of the P&L where it is, it allows us to sustain that advertising in this quarter.
Thank you, good morning. Noel, you mentioned the balance volume and pricing. Obviously impressive to see some of the green shoots in Africa and Eurasia. Can you talk also about the brand support above the line you mentioned in North America and elaborate more on that? And obviously that has been a main track to global volumes.
And I understand it takes time, of course, to see volume share rebound, but do you see in terms of like when should we see some improvement there as you talk to your customers? And then sorry to get a second part of the question, but I want to understand also your impressive rebounding margins in the quarter came through even.
margins up, but I just want to see through the P&L what would be the put syntax there. Thank you.
Sure. Thanks, Andrew, and good morning. Above-the-line expenses, obviously, when you're in an environment of inflation and recovering costs and taking pricing either through list prices or revenue growth management, it involves a reallocation of your promotional dollars for two reasons. One, that you might need to borrow andTom we're going to come back to thisupmajor from Mark
You want to ensure that when you're taking this price increases you see that pricing in the market and you get consistency of implementation around around the retail environment, so that was important part of The second quarter pricing we took in North America to do that You need to pull back on some of your promotional volumes that was done one because some of those promotional volumes are unprofitable
perhaps, but we're going to be very thoughtful moving forward on how we put GrossDinette back into the North America business to ensure that we continue to grow margins and obviously grow share at the same time. But we will ensure that that happens in the back half, but I can tell you that we're going to be very thoughtful on how we approach all the categories relative to promotions to ensure we maintain.
but easier on volume, so I think we'll see a better balance between organic growth as we move through the back half of the year, but we'll still see a little bit of pricing moving through, as I mentioned up front. On the margin line, you know, clearly very pleased with the progress that we're making both at the gross profit level and the operating margin level.
20 percent, we implemented 20 percent increase in advertising. Let me turn it over to Stan. He can give you a little bit of color of how we're thinking about raw materials phasing out through the balance of the second half. Thanks, Noel. So raw materials, as we look towards the second half, we will see these moderate, but there are pockets that actually are going up and predominantly they're impacting hills.
nice job on driving that productivity and we will carry that through the back half of the year as well. So we do expect margin to improve in the second half and continue that momentum. And then obviously, you know, just as we look at FX, you know, it's going to bounce around here a bit. And in particular, we've seen pressure in Africa, Eurasia.
countries as well as Asia Pacific. So overall we do expect margins to improve in the back half of the year.
Our next question is from Olivia Tong of Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Can you elaborate on what the impact of logistics is so we can compare you to your peers? Specifically on the U.S., can you talk about the path forward? We talked about the impact of logistics on the U.S.
what's driven some of the challenges so far in terms of volume. But could you talk about the actions that you're planning to take for the second half, whether it's some relaxation in terms of the pullback and reinstating perhaps some of the promotion.
or other actions you are planning to take with respect to the U.S. Thank you. Thanks, Olivia. Good morning. I would ask you to reference the queue on details on logistics. There is a lot more detail in there. If you are not finding what you need, obviously follow up with John and Stan afterwards.
On the volume cadence, certainly as you look at the back half, as I mentioned, the comps get much easier. But despite that, we're going to be very deliberate in how we think about volume creation in the back half. And we're going to be thoughtful, as I mentioned, continuing to focus on the structure of the P&L, which we believe is absolutely imperative.
for the long-term sustainability of the company. We think that we can keep the gross margin accelerating, we'll keep the advertising in the P&L and not simply chasing unprofitable volumes. So we're going to be very focused on that. That being said, we do expect a slightly heightened promotional environment in the back half as costs
tend to level out. We'll see probably a little bit more promotions. I will say that around the world today, we have not seen an elevated promotional environment. We are recently starting to see more volume of being sold on promotions, but not the frequency of promotions or the depth of promotions in the market. So that's an important aspect, but we're gonna be very deliberate in how we think about the promotional case.
the business longer term.
Hey, good morning folks. Thanks for swapping me in.
As Stan mentioned earlier, the elevated degree of inflation is continuing to impact, but also the new price increases.
How should we expect them to translate into margins? It's good to see the moderation versus margin expansion this quarter, but we're still down a lot from where we were.
What is the right level of profitability for that business on a normalized basis? And what is the pathway to getting there?
Yeah, thanks, Jason. Good morning. So again, we are taking aggressive pricing across the Hill's business, as you've seen through the recent quarters, and we continue to see some inflationary prices on ag prices. Now, do we think that's going to continue into 2024? communicating with you automatically?
But we want to ensure we continue to take pricing this year to recover that. Is there a number that we're targeting? No, we want to continue to do this in a very thoughtful way. We see real opportunities to continue to grow both gross profit and operating margin at Hills in a healthy way quarter to quarter moving out.
particularly given the pricing that we'll see flow through the back half of the P&L and hopefully a more benign cost environment. We also have mixed opportunities that we're very focused on as we get the new Tonganoxie plan up and running and we get wet capacity building that will allow a little bit of margin increase in on mix so we're pleased with that.
We're getting the productivity through the plants operating more efficiently. So we'll see that. And obviously as the private label business comes off, that will be a natural organic accretion to both gross profit and operating profit at the end. So good aspects to as we see the business projecting over time.
We're going to ensure that we're competitive relative to pricing in the market. We're going to continue to ensure that we keep the high levels of advertising there on the Hills business, which you saw in the quarter. So overall, we feel pretty good about the phasing of gross profit accretion moving forward.
Our next question will come from Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks and good morning. I wanted to ask more of a general question on the state of the advertising industry as you see it. You talked obviously making increases, the 20% increase this quarter. I guess the question I'm left with is just how you're seeing the efficacy of that advertising. Thank you.
Do you believe the efficacy is up, commensurate with the increased dollar investment, or is there inflation or other dynamics cutting into that efficacy, just as you see the environment today as you plan ahead?
Yeah, thanks, Stephen. Good morning. You know, I'll take you back to Cagney when Eve presented a lot of our digital advancement and the digital transformation and ultimately how our focus on digital advertising is yielding a much higher ROI. We have the ability to analytically measure that much more effectively than we have in the past.
Our copy effectiveness is getting much better. So we're seeing the efficacy delivered there through the brand health measures that I talked about earlier. We're obviously spending more money on generating first party data that allows us to obviously look more holistically across the market and get more targeted media that's more personalized and effective, which has been terrific.
As I mentioned up front, the non-promoted volume share in the US is a big metric for us.
because that clearly indicates that our advertising is driving more non-promoted shares. So we were up about 100 basis points in non-promoted share, and that's excellent. That's exactly what we want. Now we may have pulled back, as I mentioned, a little too much on the promotion, but we'll get the balance right as we move forward. So the efficacy overall, we're very pleased.
And that's clearly demonstrated in some of the market share performances we have around the world. Where we've had elevated advertising to support that, particularly across some of the brands, non Colgate brands. I mentioned Sanix in Europe , we talk about the Suavetel business and the Accion business in Mexico, which is obviously well supported.
So overall, we see a more healthy balance of advertising across our categories. And over time, this is going to lead to more sustainable growth.
Our next question will come from Robert Einstein of Ebercor ISI. Please go ahead. Great, great. A quick follow up and then my other question. Where your volumes are down, you know, particularly in the US, has that gone to competitors?
or is it more of a function of consumers postponing purchase, or orders being postponed? So that's just kind of the follow-up. And then my main question is, is where you see yourself in digital and e-commerce. Arguably a few years ago,
You were unsatisfied and have made a lot of investments and they're certainly panning out, particularly in China. Do you believe that you're kind of where you need to be to be fully competitive globally in digital and e-commerce now? Thank you.
Thanks, Rob, and good morning. On the volume, particularly in the U.S., as I mentioned already, we saw our promoted share fall off across a couple of our categories in the U.S. as we pulled back on some of the promotions and established some of the new pricing.
Where it's gone to is a multitude of the competitors, obviously, where they have not pulled back on their promotional levels as much, and therefore we saw a little bit of migration to them, but clearly that consumer typically responds to promotions, whether it's couponing or otherwise.
They're not that difficult to get back, but we want to get those consumers back in a much healthier way moving forward. So the overall structure of the USP&L improves. And that's pretty consistent around the world. When you pull back on promotions, you're gonna have a highly driven consumer that looks at pricing and value, and you need to ensure that you're obviously providing that value moving forward. So we'll get the balance right.
Our digital on that we've talked a lot about our digital transformation yet three years ago We weren't where we needed to be and I would say we're very very pleased with where we are today We do an external study with with BCG which assesses all of our peer group vis-a-vis their digital Capabilities and three years ago. We were below the peer group today
in class.
Next question is from Lauren Lieberman of Park Place. Please go ahead
Great, thanks. Good morning. I was hoping we would maybe talk a little bit about Latin America. I know it's a market where you've been putting a lot of premium innovation in place. It's been a core part of the strategy, particularly in oral care, and yet there's significant inflation in some markets. I was just curious for an update there maybe on premiumization versus affordability.
strong organic sales growth for Latin America and pleasingly, you know, after five quarters of double-digit pricing, we saw volume improve in Latin America. I think this is a good proxy for as we think about pricing in other markets and coupling that with strong advertising, ultimately the volume will come back.
It's a quite resilient consumer. They're accustomed to inflationary pricing. But as long as you're bringing a collection of strong innovation and continuing your brand support, which is vitally important to come out of these tougher times with stronger brands, you see the volume return to category. Both Mexico and Brazil delivered volume growth in the quarter.
and both had very strong growth organically given the fact that they also took pricing. So overall, really pleased with what we're seeing in Latin America. And likewise, we're seeing the velocity and the turns improve more than we anticipated, given some of the inflationary pressures in those markets. We shall watch it very carefully.
as the inflation continues to mount, but overall structurally the P&L's are in good shape and the consumer seems to be quite responsive to the innovation and the pricing that we're putting in the market. So overall we feel we're in a pretty good place.
The question is from Mark Astrakhan of STIFL. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks and good morning everyone. I wanted to ask a question on the Hills business again. Just maybe thinking about category and then your business. So how are you thinking or what are you observing from a category standpoint? We can obviously see somewhat U.S. data, but curious how you think about it around the world, that volumes overall are a little bit...
weaker, how much of that is a reflection of just all the pricing that you and your competitors are taking? Is there some of just sort of pause within the category over the after the last couple of years or really strong growth and adoption levels and then longer term
How do you think about, and maybe this goes to Jason's question a little bit, but how do you think about the contribution to price and mix and volumes for that business over time and how does that contribute to improving margins relative to where we are? Thanks.
Thanks, Mark. Clearly another strong quarter for hills, double-digit organic sales growth, despite lapping and I remind everyone that we're lapping 18% growth in the year ago period, so obviously a really strong quarter. The quarter a year ago was mid-single-digit volume, so ultimately a good quarter.
Europe continues to be very strong, US strong despite very high comps. We anticipate that we'll see a little bit of sluggishness as we move forward in the categories only because of all the pricing that's been taken, but that will be more around the discretionary items and pet specialty than food. Nutrition seems to be okay. Skywalk stores.
with some of the CEOs of the big pet specialty retailers recently and they seem quite bullish relative to the nutritional and particularly the premium segment of the market. Where you don't see a lot of elasticity in terms of when consumers trade off of diets, particularly on our prescription side. But we're going to have to watch that quite carefully because there's been a lot of pricing that's going into the capital.
particularly given the growth headwind growth headspace that we have an emerging markets given we don't have high penetration there. So overall we feel pretty good, but we're cautious on ultimately how the category continues to evolve from a volume standpoint as we see a lot of pricing going in those categories. But again, the equilibrium levels are way down from zero at one point to four as well as the chasing from a level because we've seen some
Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everyone.
So just just just a couple
Quick follow-ups from me. You know, just an apologies for asking a North America question. This is more about making sure expectations are set and we know how to think about this going forward. You know, but a little bit of promotion.
you'll come back in, but you're really focusing on a more sustainable total P&L, could still see some volume pressure for a bit until you lap some of these strategy adjustments that you've made. And by the time we get beyond that, perhaps the volume starts to smooth out a bit more. So am I characterizing that correctly?
And then second, just quick clarification or follow up. Olivia asked a question about freight. I think the 10Q just says the year of year changed. Dan, you had said 9.5% of sales was the freight number in Q1, and you expected it to trend low nines for the rest of the year. Did that come through in the quarter? Thanks so much on those two items.
Let me stay and answer the logistics question and I will get back to the North American question. Yes, the logistics is playing out like we expected and it improved slightly from the previous quarter and we expect that improvement will also continue in the second half.
On, Chris, on North America, so I think you said it well. I mean, we're looking very deliberately to improve the structure of that P&L as we move forward. Again, it's the inherent objective there is to improve brand health. So we will clearly continue to fund advertising.
We will be very choiceful on where we start to look at elevating promotions to recover some of that promotional share. Our focus is driving non-promoted share moving forward, but we need to be careful that we're not pulling back too much there. So we'll monitor that moving forward. And we'll see, I think from quarter to quarter there will be a little bit of volatility.
in the gross margin lines as we move forward, as we see costs ultimately level out and where the pricing and the mix ends up. But we feel good about the back cap relative to our ability to continue to drive operating margin expansion. You know, I remind everyone that North America's, the North America HPC business is about 20% of our total business.
And what's so nice about the Colgate business is that we have such diversity of our business around the world that as we need to fund opportunities in North America or Asia, we have the ability to pull from certain regions around the world. So we're well balanced in that regard. And I think North America has a good plan for the back half.
and we'll be very deliberate on their spending and their focus on recovering some of the share loss that we've had in the quarter. Our last question will come from Peter Grom of UBS. Please go ahead.
Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. So I wanted to just circle back to the top line growth, which the second half organic sales guidance is still relatively wide and implies a decent slowdown, which makes sense as you start to cycle pricing. Can you maybe just talk about the moving pieces that would put organic revenue growth at the higher end or the lower end of that range as we move forward here?
And maybe specifically, you mentioned several times throughout this call the sequential improvement on a two-year stack for volume. And just given the step up in investment and innovation, should we expect that trend to continue as we move into the back after the year? Thanks.
Yeah, so it's tough to nail down exactly how the balance will end up. I mean, we'll have to watch it very carefully. It's going to differ by category and by geography. But clearly the comps get easier from a volume standpoint in the back half. You heard me mention around 500 basis points.
So that will certainly be a nice tailwind for us and obviously the comps on pricing get a little bit more challenging in the back half as we move forward. But we feel very good relative to the guidance that we provided and comfortable that we can achieve that. We'll see how the categories behave as the consumer continues to be rather fickle around the world. Thanks for your attention.
It's been very constructive, promotionally, and so far the resilience, particularly in markets like Latin America and to a certain extent, Africa, have been very, very good where we've taken a lot of pricing. We'll watch North America quite closely and obviously we think we continue to have a lot of head space on the hills business as we continue to drive penetration and share growth, which incidentally, I didn't talk shares on hills. They continue to respond. wide round of
to keep the structure of the P&L the way it is.
relative to the
The second part of your question was on
Was it on advertising, Peter, or what was it on? No, it was just a sequential improvement on a two-year stack basis. Just recognizing that the comps get easier if the two-year stack improves, what does that actually imply? Because it would seem to imply that it does improve that there could be some nice improvement in return to volume growth in the back half of the year.
Yeah, exactly, and you said it well. I think we'll start to see a return to volume growth in the back half of the year. The two-year stacks, as I mentioned up front, have continued to accelerate. My expectation is probably to see that moderate a bit as we move through the back half, but volumes...
will improve and as I mentioned we still have some pricing coming through that we've taken this year so we'll see the benefit of that and a little bit of the flow through from last year so overall I think we'll have a more balanced composition as we move through the back half of the year.
Okay, I think that's a.
Great, well thank you everyone and thanks for the questions this morning. We continue to appreciate your interest in our company. Clearly we had a strong quarter and I hope you agree the strategies and the plans in place to deliver consistent compounded profitable growth are there and that will allow us to drive increased shareholder value.
We couldn't do this without the incredible efforts from Colgate people all over the world who continue to focus on execution of our strategy and the consistency of delivery. So I thank them and look forward to talking to everyone in the third quarter.
The conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.