Q3 2023 Capital Power Corporation Earnings Call
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Thank you for standing by this is the conference operator, welcome to capital Power's third quarter 2023 results Conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in a listen only mode and the conference call is being recorded today November <unk> 2023, I will now turn the call over to Ms.
Speaker 1: Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to Capitol Powers, third quarter, 2023 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in a listen only mode and the conference call is being recorded today, November 1st, 2023. I will now turn the call over to Ms. Cat Perone, manager of media relations and communications. Please go ahead.
Cat prone.
Manager of media Relations and communications. Please go ahead.
Speaker 2: Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to review Capital Powers 3rd Quarter 2023 results, which we released earlier this morning. Our 3rd Quarter Report and the presentation for this conference call are posted on our website at capitalpower.com.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to review capital Power's third quarter 2023 result.
We released earlier this morning, our third quarter report and the presentation for this conference call are posted on our website at capital power Dot com.
Speaker 2: Presenting this morning are Avic Day, President of CEO and Sandra Haskins, Senior Vice President??????? IRP
Presenting this morning are <unk>, president and CEO, and Sandra Hopkins Senior Vice President Finance and CFO.
Speaker 2: We will start with opening comments and then open the line to take your questions.
We will start with opening comments and then open the line to take your questions.
Speaker 2: Before we start, I'd like to remind everyone that certain statements about future events made on the call are forward looking in nature and are based on certain assumptions and analysis made by the company.
Before we start I'd like to remind everyone that certain statements about future events made on the call are forward looking in nature and are based on certain assumptions and analysis made by the company.
Speaker 2: actual results could differ materially from the company's expectations due to various risks and uncertainties associated with our business.
Actual results could differ materially from the company's expectations due to various risks and uncertainties associated with our business. Please.
Speaker 2: Please refer to the cautionary statement on forward looking information on flight three or a regular tourist filings available on Cedar.
Please refer to the cautionary statement on forward looking information on slide three or our regulatory filings available on SEDAR.
In today's discussion, we will be referring to various non-GAAP financial measures and ratios also noted on slide three.
Speaker 2: In today's discussion, we will be referring to various non- GAAP financial measures and ratios, also noted on slide three.
Speaker 2: These measures are not to find financial measures according to GAP and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAP and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures used by other enterprise.
These measures are not defined financial measures. According to GAAP and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAAP and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures used by other enterprises.
Speaker 2: These measures are provided to complement the GAT measures, which are provided in the analysis of the company's results from management's perspective.
These measures are provided to complement the GAAP measures, which are provided in the analysis of the company's results from management's perspective.
Speaker 2: reconciliations of these non- GAAP financial measures to their near-scat measure can be found in our third quarter 2023 MZNA.
Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their nearest GAAP measure can be found in our third quarter 2023 M. D N a.
I would like to acknowledge that capital Power's head office in Edmonton is located within the traditional and contemporary home of many indigenous peoples of the Treaty six region, and then maintain nation of Alberta region. Four we acknowledge the diverse indigenous communities that are in these areas and whose presence continues to enrich the community and our lives as we learn more about the indigenous history of the lands on which.
Speaker 2: I would like to acknowledge that Kaplow Power's head office at Edmonton is located within the traditional and contemporary home of many indigenous peoples of the Treaty 6 region and the Maytay Nation of Alberta Region 4. We acknowledge the diverse indigenous communities that are in these areas and whose presence continues to enrich the community and our lives as we learn more about the indigenous history of the lands on which we live and work.
We live and work.
Before I turn it over to Alex.
Speaker 2: Slide 5 provides an overview of what we'll be covering on today's call. We'll start with updates on our net serve strategy. Introduce our expanded executive.
Slide five provides an overview of what we'll be covering on today's call.
I'll start with updates on our net zero strategy introduced our expanded executive team.
Speaker 2: discuss progress on our strategic growth, provide financial results, including 2023 full-year guidance, and finally, we'll wrap up with details regarding our upcoming investor day.
Progress on our strategic growth provide financial results, including 2023 full year guidance and finally, we'll wrap up with details regarding our upcoming Investor day.
Speaker 2: With that, I will turn it over to Abek for his remarks starting on slide.
With that I will turn it over to Alex for his remarks, starting on slide six.
Speaker 3: Thanks, Cad, and good morning. During our last call, I talked about our strategic focus on delivering reliable, affordable, and decarbonized power, which will be built on three strategic pillars, grid-critical, baseload generation, renewable generation, and the pursuit of decarbonization solutions. I'll provide a brief update on our progress in these areas before commenting on the quarterly results. Thank you.
Thanks, Kathy and good morning during our last call I talked about our strategic focus on delivering reliable affordable and Decarbonize power, which will be built on three strategic pillars grid critical baseload generation renewable generation and the pursuit of de Carbonization solutions.
I'll provide a brief update on our progress in these areas before commenting on the quarterly results. Our 1.35 billion dollar Genesee Repowering project represents a critical step towards dispatch of all baseload generation by providing an additional 512 megawatts of net capacity for.
Speaker 3: Our 1.35 billion dollar Genesee repowering project represents a critical step towards dispatchable base load generation by providing an additional 512 megawatts of net capacity for Alberta. We continue to deliver on our midlife natural gas strategy as demonstrated by our agreement to acquire the Fredrickson 1 generating station which will deliver 265 megawatts of reliable base load generation to the Puget Sound Region.
Alberta, we continue to deliver on our mid life natural gas strategy as demonstrated by our agreement to acquire the frederickson, one generating station, which will deliver 265 megawatts of reliable baseload generation to the Puget Sound region on the renewal renewables front construction is underway.
Speaker 3: On the renewables front, construction is underway for the Halcurt 2 Wind Project, and continue to see great progress on the Maple Leaf Solar and Ontario DESS.
How Curt two wind project and continue to see great progress on the Maple Leafs solar in Ontario, the SaaS projects.
Speaker 3: Finally, our decarbonization efforts continue through the Genesee Repowering Project, which will reduce annual CO2 emissions from the facility by 3.4 million tons from 2019 levels. We are also actively engaged in ongoing commercial discussions to advance our near-shovel-ready Genesee CCS Project.
Finally, our de Carbonization efforts continue through the Genesee Repowering project, which will reduce annual C. O. Two emissions from the facility by $3 4 million tonnes from 2019 levels. We are also actively engaged in ongoing commercial discussions to advance our near shovel ready Genesee.
<unk> project.
Speaker 3: These projects and initiatives demonstrate that we are taking a balanced, thoughtful approach to energy transition and delivering on our net zero strategy. Addressing climate change is an urgent generational challenge and we're proud to take the leading role in decarbonizing our power system to deliver a long term value for our business communities and planet. Now, I'll speak about key highlights from this quarter.
These projects and initiatives demonstrate that we are taking a balanced thoughtful approach to energy transition and delivering on our net zero strategy.
Dressing climate change is an urgent generational challenge and we're proud to take a leading role in Decarbonising, our power system to deliver long term value for our business communities and planet now, let's speak about key highlights from this quarter.
Speaker 3: I'd like to introduce you to our expanded executive team, a combination of internal promotions and an external new member. With decades of experience in the energy industry, they will lead our company to net zero by 2045.
I'd like to introduce you to our expanded executive team a combination of internal promotions and external new member with decades of experience in the energy industry. They will lead our company to net zero by 2045.
Speaker 3: In corporate services, May Wong has been promoted to Senior Vice President, Strategy Planning and Sustainability, and will lead our corporate strategy, Sustainability Efforts, and Long-term Planning. May previously held the role of Vice President of Strategy Forecasting and Sustainability, and has been with the company for 20 years.
In corporate services May Wang has been promoted to senior Vice President strategy planning and sustainability and will lead our corporate strategy sustainability efforts and long term planning made previously held the role of Vice President of strategy forecasting and sustainability and has been with the company for 20 years.
Unknown Executive: Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator.
Unknown Executive: Welcome to Capital Power's third quarter, 2023 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in a listen only mode. And the conference call is being record today, November 1st, 2023.
Speaker 3: Pauline McLean joins us from the Alberta Electric System Operator, where she spent 14 years in senior legal and commercial roles. Pauline leads our legal regulatory, corporate compliance and external relations functions of capital power and provides support, risk management, and strategic insights to senior management and the board of directors.
Pauline Mcclain joins us from the Alberta Electric system, operator, where she spent 14 years in senior legal and commercial world Pauline leads our legal regulatory and corporate compliance and external relations functions of capital power and provide support risk management and strategic insights to senior manager.
Katherine Perron: I will now turn the call over to Miss Kat Perron, manager of media relations and communications. Please go ahead.
Unknown Executive: Good morning. And thank you for joining us today to review Capital Power's third quarter, 2023 results. Which we released earlier this morning.
Rent and the board of directors.
Unknown Executive: Our third quarter report and the presentation for this conference call are posted on our website at capitalpower.com. Presenting this morning are Avik Dey, president of CEO and Sandra Haskins, senior vice president, finance and CFO. We will start with opening comments and then open the line to take your questions. Before we start, I'd like to remind everyone that certain statements about future events made on the call are forward-looking in nature and are based on certain assumptions and analysis made by the company.
Speaker 3: In asset management, Steve Wolin has been promoted to Senior Vice President Operations and will oversee the safe operations of our fleet, which includes the functions of operations, supply chain, and health, safety, security, and environment. He is responsible for reliability and plant efficiency programs that provide industry leading plant availability and emissions reduction.
In asset management, Steve Wallach has been promoted to senior Vice President operations and will oversee the safe operations of our fleet, which includes the functions of operations supply chain and health safety security and environment. He is responsible for reliability and plant efficiency programs that provide industry.
Leading plant availability and emissions reductions.
Speaker 3: Steve previously held the positions of Vice President, Thermal Operations East and Renewables, and Vice President Engineering, and also brings knowledge and experience in pre and post-combustion carbon capture technologies. Steve has been with the company for 22 years.
He previously held the position of Vice President of thermal operations, Eastern Renewables and Vice President Engineering, and also brings knowledge and experience in pre and post combustion carbon capture technologies, Steve has been with the company for 22 years.
Unknown Executive: Actual results could differ materially from the company's expectations due to various risks and uncertainties associated with our business. Please refer to the cautionary statement on forward-looking information on slide three or a regulatory filings available on Cedar. In today's discussion, we will be referring to various non-gap financial measures and ratios also noted on slide three. These measures are not to find financial measures according to gap and do not have standardized meetings prescribed by gap and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures used by other enterprises.
Jason Common Dante has also been promoted to become our senior Vice President head of Canada.
Speaker 3: Jason Comet Dante has also been promoted to become our senior vice president head of Canada.
Speaker 3: Jason oversees the physical and financial optimization of our Canadian fleet, including the execution of Canadian development and acquisition opportunities, and the assessment and investment in decarbonization technologies in Canada. Jason has held senior leadership roles in commodity trading, corporate strategy, regulatory and commercial management, and has been with the company for 22 years.
Jason oversees the physical and financial optimization of our Canadian fleet, including the execution of Canadian development and acquisition opportunities in the assessment and investment and de Carbonization technologies in Canada, Jason has held senior leadership roles in commodity trading corporate strategy regulatory and.
Unknown Executive: These measures are provided to complement the gap measures which are provided in the analysis of the company's results from management's perspective. Reconciliation of these non-gap financial measures to their nearest gap measure can be found in our third quarter 2023 and ZNA.
Management and has been with the company for 22 years.
Speaker 3: And finally, Brian Deneev moves into a new role as Senior Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer, where he now oversees commercial business initiatives across North America, including the physical and financial optimization, decarbonization of capital powers.
And finally, Brian and Ive moves into a new role as senior Vice President Chief Commercial officer, where he now overseas commercial business initiatives across North America, including the physical and financial optimization de carbonization of capital Power's fleet.
Unknown Executive: I would like to acknowledge that Kapil Power's head office at Edmonton is located within the traditional and contemporary home of many Indigenous peoples of the Treaty 6 region and the Métis Nation of Alberta Region 4. We acknowledge the diverse Indigenous communities that are in these areas and whose presence continues to enrich the community and our lives as we learn more about the Indigenous history of the land on which we live and work.
Speaker 3: Ryan has previously served as Senior Vice President Operations, as well as Senior Vice President Business Development and Commercial Services, and Senior Vice President Finance and CFO .
Ryan has previously served as senior Vice President operations as well as senior Vice President business development, and commercial services and senior Vice President Finance and CFO.
Unknown Executive: Before I turn it over to Avic, slide five provides an overview of what we'll be covering on today's call. We'll start with updates on our net zero strategy, introduce our expanded executive team, discuss progress on our strategic growth, provide financial results including 2023, full year guidance, and finally we'll wrap up with details regarding our upcoming investor day.
Speaker 3: Sandra Hoskins, Jackie Pilipiyak and Steve Owens continue to serve in their current roles. With their industry experience and expertise, this dynamic group is the propelling force behind the development of critical solutions that will meet the growing long-term demand for power across North America. I'm happy to extend a warm welcome to Pauline, May, Jason and Steve to our leadership.
Sandra Haskins, Jackie <unk>, and Steve Owens continuing to serve in their current roles.
With their industry experience and expertise this dynamic group as the propelling force behind the development of critical solutions that will meet the growing long term demand for power across North America I am happy to extend a warm welcome to Pauline may Jason and Steve to our leadership team.
Avik Dey: With that, I will turn it over to Avic for his remarks starting on slide six. Thanks, Cad, and good morning. During our last call, I talked about our strategic focus on delivering reliable, affordable, and decarbonized power, which will be built on three strategic pillars, grid critical base load generation, renewable generation, and the pursuit of decarbonization solutions.
Speaker 3: We have a very strong pipeline of growth, whether that be through acquisition or development, that we have consistently converted to fleet capacity driving long-term shareholder value.
We have a very strong pipeline of growth whether that be through acquisition or development that we have consistently converted to fleet capacity driving long term shareholder value with projects under development and announced this year, we will be adding over one two gigawatt of capacity.
Speaker 3: With projects under development and announced this year, we will be adding over 1.2 gigawatt of capacity to our fleet going out to 2026. We will be adding over 1.2 gigawatt of capacity to our fleet going out to 2026.
Avik Dey: I'll provide a brief update on our progress in these areas before commenting on the quarterly results. Our $1.35 billion Gen. C, repowering project represents a critical step towards dispatchable base load generation by providing an additional 512 megawatts of net capacity for Alberta. We continue to deliver on our midlife natural gas strategy as demonstrated by our agreement to acquire the Fredericks and one generating station, which will deliver 265 megawatts of reliable base load generation to the Puget Sound Region.
Two our fleet going out to 2026, bringing the total capacity added since 2022 to two three gigawatt in five different power markets across North America. Our pipeline has a strong inventory of projects with another four two gigawatt of near term growth.
Speaker 3: bringing the total capacity added since 2022 to 2.3 gigawatt in five different power markets across North America.
Speaker 3: Our pipeline has a strong inventory of projects with another 4.2 gigawatt of near-term growth opportunities and our strategic alignment with first solar means that we have secured one gigawatt of responsibly produced ultra low carbon solar modules that will ensure our US projects meet domestic content rules under the inflation reduction act.
Opportunities and our strategic alignment with first solar means that we have secured one gigawatt of responsibly produced ultra low carbon solar modules that will ensure our U S projects meet domestic content rules under the inflation and reduction Act.
Avik Dey: On the renewables front, construction is underway for the Halcourt to wind project, and continue to see great progress on the Maple Leaf Solar and Ontario DESS project. Finally, our decarbonization efforts continue through the Genesee Repouring Project, which will reduce annual CO2 emissions from the facility by 3.4 million tons from 2019 levels. We are also actively engaged in ongoing commercial discussions to advance our near-shovel-ready Genesee CCS project. These projects and initiatives demonstrate that we are taking a balanced, thoughtful approach to energy transition and delivering on our net zero strategy.
Speaker 3: Now, I would like to talk about our recent acquisition agreement as we continue to strategically grow our fleet with grid critical dispatchable base load natural gas assets.
Now I would like to talk about our recent acquisition agreement as we continue to strategically grow our fleet with grid critical dispatch of all base load natural gas assets.
Speaker 3: Frederickson 1 generating station represents an excellent strategic fit with our fleet by providing an additional 265 megawatts of flexible, fully contracted, baseload generation.
<unk> San Juan generating station represents an excellent strategic fit with our fleet by providing an additional 265 megawatts of flexible fully contracted baseload generation. The facility is in the Pacific Northwest, which further diversifies, our geographic footprint and is well.
Speaker 3: facility is in the Pacific Northwest, which further diversifies our geographic footprint and is well positioned for Recontracting opportunities with legacy coal retirement on the horizon.
<unk> for re contracting opportunities with legacy coal retirements on the horizon.
Avik Dey: Addressing climate change is an urgent generational challenge and we're proud to take a leading role in decarbonizing our power system to deliver a long-term value for our business, communities and planet.
In addition, the facility sits on approximately seven acres of land and is adjacent to additional land owned by capital power. This represents a prime location for future developments, such as our battery installation or a hybrid opportunity.
Speaker 3: In addition, the facility sits on approximately seven acres of land and is adjacent to additional lands owned by capital power. This represents a prime location for future development such as a battery installation or a hybrid opportunity.
Avik Dey: Now I'll speak about key highlights from this quarter.
Avik Dey: I'd like to introduce you to our expanded executive team, a combination of internal promotions and an external new member. With decades of experience in the energy industry, they will lead our company to net zero by 2045. In corporate services, May Wong has been promoted to senior vice president, strategy planning and sustainability, and will lead our corporate strategy sustainability efforts and long-term planning. May previously held the role of vice president of strategy forecasting and sustainability, and has been with the company for 20 years.
Speaker 3: The facility is expected to deliver average contracted EBITDA of 15 million US per year during the five year period of 2024 to 2029. With a creative near term cash flows and will be financed using cash on hand and credit
The facility is expected to deliver average contracted EBITDA of $15 million U S per year. During the five year period of 2024 to 2029 with accretive near term cash flows and will be financed using cash on hand and credit facilities, we anticipate.
Speaker 3: We anticipate the transaction to close in late 2023 with no significant impact on this year, this fiscal year's results.
The transaction to close in late 2023 with no significant impact on this year this fiscal year's results.
Highlighted by the map on Slide 10. The addition of Frederickson, one fits very well with the key criteria. We look for in the energy markets that we invest in and strategically diversifies our presence across North America.
Speaker 3: highlighted by the map on slide 10. The addition of Fredrickson 1 fits very well with the key criteria we look for in the energy markets that we invest in and strategically diversifies our presence across North America.
Avik Dey: Pauline McLean joins us from the Alberta Electric System operator, where she spent 14 years in senior legal and commercial roles. Pauline leads our legal regulatory, corporate compliance and external relations functions of capital power, and provides support, risk management and strategic insights to senior management and the board of directors. In asset management, Steve Wolin has been promoted to senior vice president operations and will oversee the safe operations of our fleet, which includes the functions of operations, supply chain and health, safety, security and environment.
Speaker 3: Our expertise to assess, determine and capitalize on the right market opportunities, supported by our ability to optimize, operate, and deliver leading reliability results from our assets is driving value for our business.
Our expertise to SaaS determine and capitalize on the right market opportunities supported by our ability to optimize operate and deliver leading reliability results from our assets.
Driving value for our business geographic diversification of our fleet in markets that hit our sweet spot, we will provide long term opportunities for our balanced approach to energy transition I'd now like to pass it to Sandra to review our financial highlights for the quarter.
Speaker 3: Geographic diversification of our fleet in markets that hit our sweet spot will provide long-term opportunities for our balanced approach to energy trends.
Avik Dey: He is responsible for reliability and plant efficiency programs that provide industry-leading plant availability and emissions reductions. Steve previously held the positions of vice president, thermal operations, east and renewables, and vice president engineering, and also brings knowledge and experience in pre and post-combustion carbon capture technologies. Steve has been with the company for 22 years.
Speaker 3: I now like to pass it to Sandra to review our financial highlights for the quarter.
Thanks, Eric.
Speaker 4: Strong, fleet-wide performance with an average availability of 96% led to reported adjusted EBITDA, a 410 million for the third quarter, an increase of 7% year over year.
Strong <unk> performance with an average availability of 96% led to reported adjusted EBITDA of $410 million for the third quarter, an increase of 7% year over year the.
Speaker 4: The benefits of a diversified fleet were highlighted in the quarter as the growth was primarily driven by strong contributions from our US and Ontario contracted segments, including a full quarters results from MCB acquired in September 2022.
The benefits of a diversified fleet were highlighted in the quarter as the growth was primarily driven by strong contributions from our U S and Ontario contracted segment, including a full quarter's results from Mcd acquired in September 2022.
Avik Dey: Jason Comandante has also been promoted to become our senior vice president head of Canada. Jason oversees the physical and financial optimization of our Canadian fleet, including the execution of Canadian development and acquisition opportunities, and the assessment and investment in decarbonization technologies in Canada. Jason has held senior leadership roles in commodity trading, corporate strategy, regulatory and commercial management, and has been with the company for 22 years.
Speaker 4: This offset the impact of lower prices captured by our Alberta commercial segments compared to 2022.
This offset the impact of lower prices captured by our Alberta commercial segment compared to 2022.
<unk> of $960 million in the quarter is down 10% from a year ago.
Speaker 4: AFFO of 960 million in the quarter is down 10% from a year ago.
Speaker 4: A strong adestity but a result and lower shutdown capital spend in the quarter were offset by higher current income taxes, higher finance expense due to the green hybrid subordinated notes issued in the third quarter of 2022, and lower realized gains on settlement of interest rate derivatives compared to 2022.
Strong adjusted EBITDA results in lower shutdown capital spend in the quarter were offset by higher current income taxes higher finance expense due to the green hybrid subordinated notes issued in the third quarter of 2022, and lower realized gains on settlement of interest rate derivatives compared to 2022.
Avik Dey: And finally, Brian Deniv moves into a new role as senior vice president chief commercial officer where he now oversees commercial business initiatives across North America, including the physical and financial optimization decarbonization of capital power fleet. Brian has previously served as senior vice president operations as well as senior vice president business development and commercial services and senior vice president finance and CFO. Sandra Haskins, Jackie Polypiyak and Steve Owens continue to serve in their current roles. With their industry experience and expertise, this dynamic group is the propelling force behind the development of critical solutions that will meet the growing long-term demand for power across North America.
The financial performance for the nine months of the year reflect strong Alberta commercial segment results driven by higher realized power prices on our portfolio and nine months of contribution from MTV, leading to adjusted EBITDA of $1 1 billion, which was up 8% over the same period in 2022.
Speaker 4: The financial performance for the nine months of the year reflects strong Alberta commercial segment results driven by higher realized power prices on our portfolio and nine months of contribution from MCV leading to adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion, which was up 8% over the same period in 2022.
<unk> of $657 million was down 7% year over year due to the impacts of higher current income taxes, and finance expenses offset by lower shutdown capital spend and preferred dividends paid.
Speaker 4: AFFO of 657 million was down 7% year over year due to the impact the higher current income taxes and finance expenses offset by lower shutdown capital spend and preferred dividends paid.
Avik Dey: I'm happy to extend a warm welcome to Pauline, May, Jason, and Steve to our leadership team. We have a very strong pipeline of growth. Whether that be through acquisition or development, that we have consistently converted to fleet capacity driving long-term shareholder value. With projects under development and announced this year, we will be adding over 1.2 gigawatt of capacity to our fleet going out to 2026, bringing the total capacity added since 2022 to 2.3 gigawatt in five different power markets across North America.
I'll touch on our Alberta power and natural gas hedge positions, which are shown as of September 32023.
Speaker 4: I'll touch on our Alberta Power and Natural Gas head position, which are shown as of the 10th 30th, 2023.
Speaker 4: Since the end of the second quarter, our power hedge volume for 2024 to 2026 have once again increased. For 2024, it has gone up from 8500 to 9500 gigawatt hours, and from 7,000 to 8500 gigawatt hours for 2025. For 2026, the hedge volumes have gone up from 5500 to 7500 gigawatt hours.
Since the end of the second quarter, our power hedge volumes for 2024 to 2026 have once again increased for 2024. It has gone up from 8500 9500 gigawatt hours.
From 7000 to 8500 gigawatt hours for 2025.
For 2026, the hedge volumes have gone up from 5500 7500 gigawatt hours.
The weighted average hedge prices are mid $70 per megawatt hour across all three years.
Speaker 4: The weighted average hand prices are a mid-$70 per megawatt hour across all three years.
Avik Dey: Our pipeline has a strong inventory of projects with another 4.2 gigawatt of near-term growth opportunities. And our strategic alignment with first solar means that we have secured one gigawatt of responsibly produced ultra-low carbon solar modules that will ensure our US projects meet domestic content rules under the inflation reduction act.
Speaker 4: The hedge positions include long-duration origination contracts as another mechanism to manage price risk.
Hedge positions include long duration origination contracts is another mechanism to manage risk.
Speaker 4: The graph on the left shows the relative magnitude of hedges that are long duration.
The graph on the left shows the relative magnitude of hedges that are long duration.
Speaker 4: Our natural gas hedge volumes of 70,000 TJs for 2024 remains unchanged from 2022, while 2025 has slightly decreased from 60,000 TJs to 55,000 TJs as a result of some portfolio rebalancing activities to better tailor our hedges to our portfolio needs.
Our natural gas hedge volumes at 70000 Tj's for 2024 remains unchanged from 2022, while 2025 to slightly decrease from 2000, TJ statistic like that in PJM as a result of some portfolio rebalancing activity to better tailor, our hedges to our portfolio needs.
Avik Dey: Now, I would like to talk about our recent acquisition agreement as we continue to strategically grow our fleet with grid-critical, dispatchable, baseload, natural gas assets. Frederickson 1 generating station represents an excellent strategic fit with our fleet by providing an additional 265 megawatts of flexible, fully contracted, baseload generation. The facility is in the Pacific Northwest, which further diversifies our geographic footprint and is well positioned for re-contracting opportunities with legacy coal retirement on the horizon.
Speaker 4: In 2026, we have increased our natural gas hedging volume from 45,000 to 50,000 TJ.
In 2026, we have increased our natural gas hedging volume from 45000 to 50000 T J.
Speaker 4: Natural gas volume has been hatched at favorable prices compared to turn-forward.
Natural gas volumes have been hedged at favorable prices compared to current forward.
I'll conclude my remarks by reviewing our nine months performance relative to our 2023 targets.
Speaker 4: I'll conclude our remarks by reviewing our nine month performance relative to our 2023 target.
Speaker 4: We continue to have high-plant reliability and availability. Our average facility availability of 95% for the first nine months of the year, and we expect to finish the year at or slightly above our availability target of 94%.
We continue to have high plant reliability and availability.
Our average facility availability of 95% for the first nine months of the year and we expect to finish the year at or slightly above our availability target of 94%.
Avik Dey: In addition, the facility sits on approximately seven acres of land and is adjacent to additional land owned by capital power. This represents a prime location for future development, such as a battery installation or a hybrid opportunity. The facility is expected to deliver average contracted EBITDA of 15 million US per year during the five year period of 2024 to 2029 with a creative near-term cash flows and will be financed using cash on hand and credit facilities.
Sustaining capex was $99 million in the first nine months and is on track to meet our 2023 target of $135 million to $145 million.
Speaker 4: So, standing CapEx was 99 million in the first nine months and is on track to meet our 2023 target of 135 million, 245 million.
With respect to the financial performance targets of one $4 95 billion to 151 billion.
Speaker 4: With respect to the financial performance targets of 1.455 billion to 1.51 billion.
Speaker 4: 1.515 billion in adjusted EBITDA and 805 million to 865 million in AFF cells based on the Alberta Power Forward crisis heading into the quarter are 2023 full year financial results are trending to be below the midpoint of our guidance ranges for AFF and adjusted EBITDA.
1151, 5 billion and adjusted EBITDA, and 805 million to $865 million in ASF. So based on the Alberta power forward prices heading into the quarter. Our 2023 full year financial results are trending to be below the midpoint of our guidance ranges for <unk> and adjusted EBITDA.
Avik Dey: We anticipate the transaction to close in late 2023 with no significant impact on this year, this fiscal year's results. Highlighted by the map on slide 10, the addition of Frederickson 1 fits very well with the key criteria we look for in the energy markets that we invest in and strategically diversifies our presence across North America. Our expertise to assess, determine and capitalize on the right market opportunities supported by our ability to optimize, operate and deliver leading reliability results from our assets is driving value for our business. Business Geographic diversification of our fleet in markets that hit our sweet spot will provide long-term opportunities for our balanced approach to energy transition.
Lastly, I know many of you have been asking about our plans for Investor day, and I am excited to announce that we will be changing things up a bit this year by hosting the event here in Edmonton on May 7th and eighth 2024.
Speaker 4: Lastly, I know many of you have been asking about our plans for an yesterday and I'm excited to announce that we will be changing things up a bit this year by hosting the event here in Edmonton on May 7th and 8th, 2024.
Speaker 4: The experience will include a tour of the Gen.C. generating station and power project site.
The experience will include a tour of the Genesee generating station in power Repower project sites.
Speaker 4: We will be releasing further details on the event, along with 2024 guidance information later this year. With that, I'll now turn it back over to Kat.
We will be releasing further details on the event along with 2024 guidance information later this year.
With that I'll now turn it back over to Kent.
Thanks, Andrew Josh we are now ready to take questions.
Thank you we will now begin the Q&A question and answer session to join the question queue. You May Press Star one on your phone to raise your hand, we will pause for a moment as callers join the queue.
Speaker 1: Thank you. We will now begin the Q&A question and answer session to join the question queue. You may press star 1-1 on your phone to raise your hand. We will pause for a moment as collars join the queue.
Sandra Haskins: I now like to pass it to Sandra to review our financial highlights for the quarter. Thanks, Avik. Strong, sweet, wide performance with an average availability of 96% led to reported adjusted EBITDA of 410 million for the third quarter and increase of 7% year over year. The benefits of a diversified fleet were highlighted in the quarter as the growth was primarily driven by strong contributions from our U.S, and Ontario contracted segments, including a full quarter's results from MCD, acquired in September 2022.
Speaker 1: Our first question comes from David Kisato with Raymond James, You May Proceed.
Our first question comes from David <unk> with Raymond James You May proceed.
Speaker 5: Thanks, morning everyone. Just maybe my first question on the on the Fredripsen acquisition. Now that you have a facility in the in the Pacific Northwest, you see that as another hub and you see sort of growth opportunities surrounding that and maybe on a related note. What kind of timeline would you be looking at for some of the other opportunities at that site that you mentioned?
Thanks, Good morning, everyone.
Just maybe my first question on the on the Frederickson acquisition.
Now do you have a facility in the Pacific Northwest do you see that as another hub MDC sort of.
Growth opportunities surrounding that and maybe on a related note what kind of timeline would you be looking at for some of the other opportunities at that site that you mentioned.
Thanks, David for the question. So we think the entire Western U S. We've got our existing position and desert southwest at Arlington.
Speaker 3: Thanks David for the question. So we think the entire Western U.S.
Sandra Haskins: This offset the impact of lower prices captured by our Alberta commercial segments compared to 2022. AFFO of 960 million in the quarter is down 10% from a year ago. Strong, adjusted EBITDA results in lower shutdown capital spend in the quarter were offset by higher current income taxes, higher finance expense due to the green hybrid subordinated notes issued in the third quarter of 2022, and lower realized gains on settlement of interest rate derivatives compared to 2022.
Speaker 3: We've got our existing position in Desert Tough West at Arlington.
Speaker 3: We've been active in that region from Desert Southwest all the way up through the Pacific Northwest.
We've been active in that region from desert southwest all the way up through the Pacific Northwest historically at the company whether it's through.
Speaker 3: historically at the company, whether it's through operating assets, through the previous LP, or just being an active participant on the trading side.
Operating assets through the previous LP or just being an active participant on the trading side. So we continue to see additional opportunities in the broader region.
Speaker 3: So we continue to see additional opportunities in the broader region and believe it'll be a core focus area for us.
We believe it'll be a core focus area for us in terms of other opportunities in and around the existing position we have active dialogue around other opportunities.
Sandra Haskins: The financial performance for the nine months of the year reflects strong Alberta commercial segment results driven by higher realized power prices on our portfolio and nine months of contribution from MCD leading to adjusted EBITDA of 1.1 billion, which was up 8% over the same period in 2022. AFFO of 657 million was down 7% year over year due to the impact the higher current income taxes and finance expenses offset by lower shutdown capital spend and preferred dividends paid.
Speaker 3: In terms of other opportunities in and around the existing position, we have active dialogue around other opportunities, utilizing our existing acres, but they're all...
Utilizing our existing acreage, but theyre all.
Speaker 3: very early days, nothing that is
Very early days nothing that is.
Speaker 3: I would call investible in the short term, but their active conversation.
I would call investable in the short term.
But there are active conversations and more broadly, we see opportunities as well, whether it's acquisition or partnering.
Speaker 3: And more broadly, we see opportunities as well, whether it's acquisition or partnering.
Speaker 5: Okay, excellent, thanks for that. And then maybe just one switching gears a bit to the CCS project, any update on the carbon insurance mechanism there. And I'm just curious like how you compare contrast.
Okay excellent. Thanks for that and then maybe just one switching gears a bit too.
Sandra Haskins: I'll touch on our Alberta power and natural gas hedge positions, which are shown as of September 30, 2023. Since the end of the second quarter, our power hedge volume for 2024 to 2026 have once again increased. For 2024, it has gone up from 8500 to 9500 gigawatt hours and from 7500 to 8500 gigawatt hours for 2025. For 2026, the hedge volumes have gone up from 5500 to 7500 gigawatt hours. The weighted average hedge prices are mid $70 per megawatt hour across all three years.
Ccs project any any.
Any update on the.
Carbon assurance mechanism there I'm just curious like how do you compare and contrast.
Speaker 5: investment in Canada as compared to the U.S. I know you've talked about it at MCV as well.
<unk> investment in Canada, as compared to the U S. I know you've talked about it at MTV as well.
Speaker 5: Is there some potential that you, if you couldn't get comfortable in the carbon insurance mechanism, in Alberta, could you, could you instead change the focus 10 CV and have some kind of a CCS project there?
Is there is there some potential that you if you couldnt get comfortable on the carbon assurance mechanism in Alberta could you could you instead change the focus to MTBE and have some kind of a Ccs project there.
Speaker 3: Well, as we've previously announced, we are commencing studies in Michigan around the viability of CCS.
Well as we've previously announced we are commencing studies in Michigan around the viability of Ccs. So to answer the first part of your question in terms of update we have not advanced the commercial conversations today, we continue to have active conversations as we.
Speaker 3: So to answer the first part of your question, in terms of update, we have not advanced the commercial conversations. Today we continue to have active conversations. As we guided to last quarter, we wouldn't provide any additional updates until we had a material one.
Sandra Haskins: The hedge positions include long duration origination contracts as another mechanism to manage price risk. The graph on the left shows the relative magnitude of hedges that are long duration. Our natural gas hedge volumes of 70,000 TJs for 2024 remains unchanged from 2022, while 2025 is slightly decreased from 60,000 TJs to 55,000 TJs as the result of some portfolio rebalancing activities to better tailor our hedges to our portfolio needs. In 2026, we have increased our natural gas hedging volumes from 45,000 to 50,000 TJs. Natural gas volumes have been hatched at favorable prices compared to current fall rates.
Got it two last quarter, we wouldnt provide any additional updates until we had a material one.
Speaker 3: We continue to be optimistic about getting to the finish line around.
We continue to be optimistic about getting to the finish line around the commercial agreement, whether it's the CCF D or some other commercial alternative but we have not advanced it to this point, where we could make an announcement but.
Speaker 3: the commercial agreement, whether it's a CCFD or some other commercial alternative, but we have not advanced it to this point where we could make an announcement. But, you know, I think from a viability of CCS, there will be places...
I think from a viability of Ccs there will be places in.
Speaker 3: In the US and in Canada, particularly Alberta, where we think it's viable and as we've mentioned before, we've got a shovel ready project. So the capture part of it. We feel quite comfortable now. It's just a question of reconciling the commercial aspects of it. And as you mentioned on the US side, you know, with the IRA and the 45.
In the U S and in Canada, particularly Alberta, where we think its viable.
As we've mentioned before we've got a shovel ready project. So the capture part of it we feel quite comfortable now. It's just a question of reconciling the commercial aspects of it and as you mentioned on the U S side with the IRA and the 45 Q.
Sandra Haskins: I'll conclude our remarks by reviewing our nine-month performance relative to our 2023 target. We continue to have high plant reliability and availability. Our average facility availability of 95 percent for the first nine months of the year, and we expect to finish the year at or slightly above our availability targets of 94 percent. Sustaining CAPEX was 99 million in the first nine months and is on track to meet our 2023 target of 135 million to 145 million.
Speaker 3: and the intent is around the IRA. There's a clear formula there in terms of the capital support for it, around $85 a US ton. And in Canada, we continue to work with the federal government on meeting something that works for all parties. But like I said,
And the incentives around the IRA.
Clear formula there in terms of.
The capital support for it.
Around $85, a U S ton and in Canada, We continue to work with with the federal government on meeting something.
Sandra Haskins: With respect to the financial performance targets of 1.455 billion to 1.51 billion, 1.515 billion in adjusted EBITDA and 805 million to 865 million in AFFL based on the Alberta Power Forward crisis heading into the quarter are 2023 full-year financial results are trending to be below the midpoint of our guidance ranges for AFFL and adjusted EBITDA.
That works for all parties, but like I said continue to be optimistic.
Speaker 3: Continue to be optimistic. We are in regular dialogue. We have lots of conversations and everyone is working towards.
Are in regular dialog, we have lots of conversations.
Everyone is working towards a similar outcome, but no material update from last quarter.
Speaker 5: A similar outcome, but no material update from last quarter. Appreciate the color. Thanks. I'll get back. Thank you.
I appreciate the color thanks, I'll get back in the queue.
Thank you.
One moment for questions.
Our next question comes from Robert Hope with Scotiabank you May proceed.
Sandra Haskins: Lastly, I know many of you have been asking about our plans for investor day and I'm excited to announce that we will be changing things up a bit this year by hosting the event here in Edmonton on May 7th and 8th, 2024. The experience will include a tour of the Genesee generating station and power project site. We will be releasing further details on the event along with 2024 turning back over to CAPEX.
Speaker 1: Good morning, everyone. Once again, the Alberta Throne speech spoke about affordability of electricity rates.
Good morning, everyone.
Once again, the Alberta throne speech spoke about affordability.
Electricity rates.
Speaker 3: It added a little bit of commentary that it would be looking proactively to engage with industry regarding an outcome there. The press conference thereafter almost opened the door for a capacity market in the region. Are you engaged with the government already? What type of changes do you think you could see in the Alberta market, and would you be open to a capacity market?
It added a little bit of commentary that it would be looking proactively to engage with industry regarding an outcome there.
The press release or the press conference thereafter, almost open the door for.
Capacity market in the region so.
Are you engaged with the government already what type of changes do you think you could see in the.
Unknown Executive: Thanks, Sandra. Josh, we are now ready to take questions. Thank you. We will now begin the Q&A question and answer session. To join the question Q, you may press star 1-1 on your phone to raise your hand.
In the Alberta market and would you be open to a capacity market.
Speaker 3: We continue to be focused on the merits and effectiveness of the energy only market. We've been very engaged in the conversation.
We.
We continue to be focused on the merits.
And effectiveness of the energy only market, we've been very engaged in the conversations.
Unknown Executive: We will pause for a moment as I will start with Raymond James, you may proceed. Thanks, morning everyone. Just maybe my first question on the Fredericks and Acquisition. Navi, you have a facility in the Pacific Northwest. Do you see that as another hub and you see sort of growth opportunities surrounding that and maybe on a related note? What kind of timeline would you be looking at for some of the other opportunities at that site that you mentioned?
Speaker 3: at a provincial level and with our counterparties and peers around what best serves the market and continue to believe the best solution for high prices is high prices as evidenced by the new capacity coming on stream in 2024.
At a provincial level and with our Counterparties and peers around what best serves the market.
And continue to believe the best solution for high prices is high prices.
As evidenced by the new capacity coming on stream in 2024. So we do think there are some critical short term issues that do need to be addressed around.
Speaker 3: So, you know, we do think there are some critical short-term issues that do need to be addressed around reliability. And we expect to see some tweaks to the existing systems to facilitate that. But the cornerstone of the energy-only market, we expect to be maintained.
Reliability, and we expect to see some tweaks to the existing system to facilitate that but the.
Cornerstone of the energy only market.
Unknown Executive: Thanks, David, for the question. We think the entire Western US, we have got our existing position in Desert Southwest at Arlington. We have been active in that region from Desert Southwest all the way up through the Pacific Northwest, historically at the company, whether it is through operating assets through the previous LP or just being an active participant on the trading side. We continue to see additional opportunities in the broader region and believe it will be a core focus area for us.
We expect to be maintained.
Speaker 3: whether there's other, you know, ancillary service products that help support that reliability. I think, you know, we and other competitors as well as the regulatory bodies are all having those conversations. But I would say everything has been very, you know,
Whether there is other.
Hillary service products that help support that reliability, I think we and other competitors.
As as well as the regulatory bodies are all having those conversations but I would say everything has been <unk>.
Barry.
It's been an open dialogue and it's been a constructive dialogue to this point, but we continue to advocate for and expect to see.
Speaker 3: It's been an open dialogue and it's been a constructive dialogue to this point, but we continue to advocate for and expect to see the foundational elements of the energy only market maintain.
The foundational elements of the energy only market maintained.
I appreciate that color and then maybe for Sandra you touched on the kind of the moving parts in 2023 guidance in your prepared remarks, I was hoping you could dive a little deeper when we take a look at Q2 pricing was strong <unk> still remains.
Speaker 3: I appreciate that, Keller. And then maybe for Sandra, you touched on the kind of the moving parts in 2023 guidance in your prepared remarks. I was hoping you could dive a little deeper. You know, when we take a look at Q2, pricing was strong, ACO still remains weak. Can you maybe talk to in a little bit more detail what the key drivers are that could push results to the bottom end of the 2023 range?
Unknown Executive: In terms of other opportunities in and around the existing position, we have active dialogue around other opportunities. Utilizing our existing acres but they are all very early days, nothing that is, I would call, investible in the short term, but they are active conversations. And more broadly, we see opportunities as well, whether it is acquisition or partnering. Okay, excellent. Thanks for that.
Can you maybe talk to in a little bit more detail what the key drivers are that could push results to the bottom end of the 2023 range.
Yes, so as you recall, we came out at Q2 with the expectation that town based on forwards at that point in time that we would still be able to.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so as you recall, we came out at Q2 with the expectation that based on forward at that point in time that we would still be able to land the year at above the midpoint. And so, you know, forward for the year, we're forecast to be around $175.
Avik Dey: And then maybe just one switching gears a bit to CCS project. Any update on the carbon insurance mechanism there? I'm just curious like how you compare contrast the CCS investment in Canada as compared to US. I know you've talked about it at MCB as well. Is there is there some potential that you if you couldn't get comfortable in the carbon insurance mechanism in Alberta? Could you could you instead change the focus 10cp and have some kind of a CCS project there?
The year it at above the midpoint and so.
Forward through the year were forecast to be around $175 now looking at.
Speaker 4: Now looking at a forecast that's on the $145 to $150. So you would have seen that in Q3 where we had all of the events that drove Q2 higher, whether it be the forest fires here in Alberta as well as...
Forecasted from the $1 45 to $150. So you would have seen that in Q3, where we had.
All of the events that drove Q2 higher whether it be the forest fires here in Alberta, as well as warm temperature and supply constraints that push forward.
Speaker 4: warm temperature and supply constraints that push forward.
Avik Dey: Well, as we previously announced, we are commencing studies in Michigan around the viability of CCS. So to answer the first part of your question in terms of update, we have not advanced the commercial conversations today. We continue to have active conversations. You know, as we guided to last quarter, we wouldn't provide any additional updates until we had a material one. We continue to be optimistic about getting to the finish line around the commercial agreement, whether it's the CCFD or some other commercial alternative, but we have not advanced it to this point where we could make an announcement.
Speaker 4: sort of resolved itself as we came through Q3 and saw very mild weather, strong supply and that brought the forwards down at $25 to $30 a megawatt hour. So based on the absence of that volatility, which creates the incremental upside for our assets.
Sort of resolved itself.
As we came through Q3 very mild.
Mild weather strong supply and that brought the forwards down that.
Our 25% to $30 a megawatt hour so based on on the absence of that volatility, which creates the incremental upside for our asset you.
Speaker 4: you would see that sort of pull back in our forecast. So I would caveat that with the fact that, you know, we still expect that some prices can move around a fair bit, given, you know, we are just entering the winter season and starting to get some colder weather here. So it is, once again, weather dependent in terms of where those floors blend, but when you use the curve that is out there today, that's...
You would see that sort of pull back in our forecast. So I would caveat that with the fact that we still expect that prices can move around a fair bit given we are just entering the winter season, and starting to get some some colder weather here. So it is once again weather dependent in terms of where those forward Glenn.
Avik Dey: But you know, I think from a viability of CCS, there will be places in the US and in Canada, particularly Alberta, where we think it's viable. And as we've mentioned before, we've got a, you know, shovel ready project. So the capture part of it, we feel quite comfortable. Now, it's just a question of reconciling the commercial aspects of it. And as you mentioned on the US side, you know, with the IRA and the 45Q and the incentives around the IRA, you know, there's a clear formula there in terms of, you know, the capital support for it around $85 a US ton.
But when you use the curve that is out there today.
Speaker 4: That's what's driving it down. So nothing on performance of the assets with respect to the entire fleet. Still, it's continuing that to be strong, but just the range of potential outcomes, given where we are in the market pricing today just creates that amount of swing that can easily reverse, shouldn't you see further changes in that forward price curve?
What's driving it down to nothing on performance of the assets with respect to the entire fleet continuing that to be strong, but just the range of potential outcomes given.
Where we are in the market pricing today just three.
That amount of swing.
Easily reverse should we see further through the changes in that.
Sure.
Thank you.
Thank you.
One moment for questions.
Avik Dey: And in Canada, we continue to work with the federal government on meeting something that works for all parties. But, you know, like I said, continue to be optimistic. We are in regular dialogue. We have lots of conversations and, you know, everyone is working towards a similar outcome.
Our next question comes from Maurice Choy with RBC capital markets. You May proceed.
Speaker 1: Our next question comes from Maurice Choi with RBC Capital Markets, he may proceed.
Speaker 6: Thank you and good morning. If I could start with the proposed federal CR. I know you from marketing your report that all your assets will qualify as existing assets under the draft proposals. What do you think the 30 tons per kilowatt hour threshold may mean for the longevity of your Gen.S.U.P. project and also the technical specifications of your proposed CCS project?
Thank you and good morning, if I could start with the proposed federal CR.
I know you from March in your report that all of your assets will qualify.
Unknown Executive: But no material update from last quarter. Appreciate the color. Thanks. I'll get back. Thank you. One moment for questions.
Existing assets.
<unk> proposal.
What do you think.
The 30th tons per kilowatt hour stressful may mean for the longevity of your Genesis through a pilot project and also the technical specifications of your proposed project.
Robert Hope: Our next question comes from Robert Hope with Scotia Bank. You may proceed. Good morning, everyone. Once again, the Alberta Throne speech spoke about affordability of electricity rates. You know, it added a little bit of commentary that it would be looking for actively to engage with industry regarding an outcome there. You know, the press conference that we're after almost opened the door for a capacity market in the region. So, you know, are you engaged with the government already?
So I think stepping back on the sea.
Speaker 3: So I think stepping back on the CER, as you may have noted, we've been fairly active publicly and privately in terms of advocacy in and around the CER. And we continue to believe that the framework for the CER is workable with specific tweets.
Our.
As you May have noted we've been fairly active publicly and privately in terms of advocacy in and around the CER and we continue to believe that the framework for the CER is workable with specific tweaks.
Speaker 3: in particular in Alberta given our existing reliance on thermal generation for for a base load dispatchable.
In particular in Alberta, given our existing reliance on thermal generation for Baseload. The stature bowl so without commenting on the specifics of the legislation as they're currently stated as you know comments are due tomorrow and we're going into the next phase.
Robert Hope: What type of changes do you think you could see in the Alberta market and would you be open to a capacity market? We continue to be focused on the merits and effectiveness of the energy only market. We've been very engaged in the conversations at a provincial level and with our counterparties and peers around what best serves the market and continue to believe the best solution for high prices is high prices as evidenced by the new capacity coming on stream in 2024.
Speaker 3: So without commenting on the specifics of the legislation as they are currently stated, as you know, comment or do tomorrow, and we're going into the next phase, we've had very constructive conversations with both sides.
Robert Hope: So, you know, we do think there are some critical short-term issues that do need to be addressed around reliability and we expect to see some tweaks to the existing systems to facilitate that. But the cornerstone of the energy only market, we expect to be maintained. Whether there's other, you know, ancillary service products that help support that reliability, I think, you know, we and other competitors as well as the regulatory bodies are all having those conversations.
We've had very constructive conversations with with both sides.
Speaker 3: of the conversation whether it's with the federal ministries involved or you know provincial the provincial ministries on this front and we expect to we those construct those conversations have been constructive around whether it's the end of prescribed life whether it's the use of a weaker capacity whether it's you know the conversation around use of offset
Of conversation, whether it's with.
The federal ministries involved or provincial.
The provincial ministries on this front and we expect to.
Those construction those conversations have been constructive around whether it's the end of prescribed life, whether it's the use of.
Pick your capacity.
Whether it's.
The conversation around use of offsets.
Speaker 3: So we expect some of those changes to get reflected as the conversations have indicated that, you know,
So we expect some of those changes to get reflected.
The conversations have.
<unk> indicated that.
There are different one solution doesn't fit all.
Speaker 3: There are different one solution doesn't fit all. So for places like Alberta in particular and Ontario in their use of peakers, we expect some of those accommodations to be met.
So for places like Alberta in particular, and Ontario in their use of <unk>, we expect some of those accommodations to me Matt.
And just to follow up on that.
Speaker 6: And just to fall upon that any thoughts on the CCS side of things besides the speakers and the 20-year.
Robert Hope: But I would say everything has been very, you know, it's been an open dialogue and it's been a constructive dialogue to this point. But, you know, we continue to advocate for and expect to see the foundational elements of the energy you only market, maintain.
Any thoughts on the Ccs side of things Besides the peak years.
<unk>.
And the 'twenty year.
Well, if you see gcs I think at all.
Speaker 3: Well, if GCS, I think it's funny, you can't...
Funny you can't you can't answer one question without the other so the CER framework establishes the base load.
Speaker 3: You can't answer one question without the other. So the CER framework establishes the base load. And on CCS in particular, it's just a question of
Unknown Executive: And I appreciate that color.
Sandra Haskins: And then maybe for Sandra, you touched on the kind of the moving parts in 2023 guidance in your program, Marks. I was hoping you could dive a little deeper. When we take a look at Q2, pricing was strong, ACO still remains weak. Can you maybe talk to in a little bit more detail what the key drivers are that could push results to the bottom end of the 2023 range? Yeah, so as you recall, we came out at Q2 with the expectation that based on forward that that point in time that we would still be able to land the year at above the midpoint.
And on Ccs in particular, its just a question of.
Speaker 3: Um, what, you know, what, what level of. Greenhouse gas intensity, can you actually.
What what what level of greenhouse gas intensity can you actually achieve through thermal asset. So we expect that that percentage compliance.
Speaker 3: through a thermal asset. So we expect that that percentage compliance.
Speaker 3: needs to be more akin to where the technology is today.
Needs to be more akin to where the technology is today.
Speaker 3: So, you know, that percentage rate, you know, we think should come down.
So that percentage rate, we think should come down.
Speaker 3: I can't comment on the exact percentage right now because it also depends on what the use of offsets are where we land on end of prescribed life. There's not any one provision that in itself is a silver bullet. You've got to take all of those provisions in context and then determine where to come out. CCS is so intrinsically tied into the CERB, the other provisions of CERB, we wouldn't...
Can't comment on the exact percentage right now because it also depends on what the use of offsets are where we land on end of prescribed life. There is not any one provision that in itself is a silver bullet you've got to take all of those provisions in context, and then determine where to come out. So ccs is so intrinsically.
Sandra Haskins: And so, you know, forwards for the year were forecast to be around $175. Now looking at a forecast that's on the $145 to $150. So you would have seen that in Q3 where we had all of the events that drove Q2 higher, whether it be the forest fires here in Alberta as well as warm temperature and supply constraints that push forward sort of resolved itself in as we came through Q3 and saw very mild weather, strong supply and that brought the forwards down that, you know, call it $25 to $30 a megawatt hour.
Tied into the CER other the other provisions of C. D R.
We wouldnt, we wouldnt, we wouldnt advocate for one specific number having said that at Genesee Ccs, we still see the viability of that project in the context of.
Speaker 3: we wouldn't advocate for one specific number. Having said that, at GenSC CCS.
Speaker 3: we still see the viability of that project in the context of CER legislation.
The CER legislation moving through.
Speaker 3: But it cannot without some of the tweaks that we've already publicly
But it cannot without some of the tweaks that we've already publicly discussed.
Sandra Haskins: So based on the absence of that volatility which creates the incremental upside for our assets, you would see that sort of pull back in our forecast. So I would caveat that with the fact that, you know, we still expect that prices can move around a fair bit given, you know, we are just entering the winter season and starting to get some colder weather here. So it is, once again, weather dependent in terms of where those forwards land, but when you use the curve that is out there today, that's what's driving it down.
Speaker 6: So I'll just see if you put aside the carbon assurance mechanism and just think about policy background for the CES. And I think you mentioned that the final CER might come in mid-2024. Should we then assume that the CES project is at least pushed to the end of 2024 in terms of decision?
So I guess, if you put aside the carbon assurance mechanism.
Just think about the policy background for the Ccs.
You mentioned that the final C might come in mid 2024 should we then assume that the Ccs project.
Yes.
Pushed to the end of two.
2024 in terms of physician.
Speaker 3: I can't make that assertion. You know, we, we came out with our guidance in the summer, which was we're near shovel ready on the technical aspect and we need to drive to a finish line on the commercial side. We have not had anyone on the federal side step back.
I can't make that assertion.
We came out with our guidance in the summer, which was where near shovel ready on the technical aspect and we need to drive to a finish line on the commercial side, we have not had any one on the federal side step back because of CER on the engagement on the commercial side with <unk>.
Sandra Haskins: So nothing on performance of the assets with respect to the entire fleet. So it's continuing that to be strong, but just the range of potential outcomes given where we are in the markets pricing today just creates that amount of swing that can easily reverse should we see further changes in that forward price curve. Thank you. One moment for questions.
Speaker 3: of CER on the engagement on the commercial side. We continue to have conversations.
Continue to have conversations.
Speaker 3: My colleagues and I were just in auto a few weeks ago progressing these conversations. We have more discussions upcoming, not one of those discussions have been tied directly to CER. It's more been tied to, how do we figure out CCSD or the alternative? And how do we actually put a shovel in the ground and get the project up and running?
My colleagues and I were just in Ottawa, a few weeks ago progressing these conversations we have more discussions.
Coming not one of those discussions have been tied directly to CER morven tied to how do we.
How do we figure out Ccs D or the alternative.
Maurice Choy: Our next question comes from Maurice Choi with RBC Capital Markets. He may proceed.
And how does it how do we actually put a shovel in the ground and get the project up and running.
Avik Dey: Thank you and good morning. If I could start with the proposed federal CR, I know you from marketing your report that all your assets will qualify as existing assets under the draft proposals. What do you think the 30 tons per kilowatt hour threshold may mean for the longevity of your genesis project and also the technical specifications of your proposed CCS project? So I think stepping back on the CER, as you may have noted, you know, we've been fairly active publicly and privately in terms of advocacy in and around the CER.
Alright understood.
Speaker 6: If I could just finish off with a question to you on strategy and obviously it seems like you're signaling that the mid-life natural gas strategy will continue with the Frederickson acquisition and today we see a change in your executive team. You're coming up to six months with your CEO shift here and I'm wondering where you see the company strategy today, how the executive team will help accelerate any part of that strategy and if there are any areas you want to focus a little bit more time in the near term.
I can just finish off with a question to you on strategy.
Obviously, it seems like you're signaling that the mid life natural gas strategy will continue with the Fedex acquisition and today, we see a change in your executive team.
Youre coming up to six months with your CEO ship here and I'm wondering where you see the company strategy today.
Our executive team will help accelerate any part of that strategy and if there are any areas you want to focus a little bit more time in the near term.
I think as we.
Speaker 3: I think, you know, as we look forward, I'm incredibly excited about the executive team we've assembled. It's come together, the full team is in.
We look forward I'm incredibly excited about the executive team we've assembled.
Avik Dey: And we continue to believe that the framework for the CER is workable with specific tweaks in particular in Alberta given our existing reliance on thermal generation for base load dispatchable. So without commenting on the specifics of the legislation as they're currently stated, you know, as you know, comments are due tomorrow and we're going into the next phase. We've had very constructive conversations with both sides of the conversation, whether it's with the federal ministries involved or, you know, provincial, the provincial ministries on this front, and we expect to, we, those construct, those conversations have been constructive around whether it's the end of prescribed life, whether it's the use of peaker capacity, whether it's, you know, the conversation around use of offsets.
It's come together the full team is in place and importantly, we've divided the organization into corporate services asset management asset management being engineering construction and operations and then commercial the focus over the coming months is to coordinate our commercial effort.
Speaker 3: And importantly, we've divided the organization into corporate services, asset management, asset management being engineering construction operations and then commercial. The focus over the coming months is to coordinate our commercial effort across our existing businesses.
Across our existing businesses.
Speaker 3: So as you've heard us say whether it's at investor presentations or through the last couple of quarters, we have a core competency around managing dispatchable, baseload power generation that's utility scale. That today for the most part is thermal generation, gas fire generation.
So as you've heard us say, whether its I had the investor presentations or through the last couple of quarters, we have a core competency around managing this batch of bold baseload power generation that utility scale that today for the most part is thermal generation gas fired generation.
Speaker 3: We believe firmly that any part of achieving that zero in the markets we focus in.
We believe firmly that any part of achieving net zero in the markets we focus in.
Needs companies to focus on that reliability first.
Speaker 3: companies to focus on that reliability first. And we also see that as the entry point and catalyst for building decarbonization strategies.
And we also see that as the entry point and catalysts for building de carbonization strategies. If we're an incumbent in an existing electricity market with existing interconnects.
Avik Dey: So we expect some of those changes to get reflected as the conversations have indicated that, you know. There are different, one solution doesn't fit all, so for places like Alberta in particular and Ontario in their use of peakers, we expect some of those accommodations to be met. It's funny, you can't answer one question without the other, so the CER framework establishes the base load and on CCS in particular, it's just a question of what level of greenhouse gas intensity can you actually achieve through a thermal asset.
Speaker 3: If we're an incumbent in an existing electricity market with existing interconnects.
Speaker 3: and incumbency around trading and working with, you know, wholesale customers, we think we're best positioned to grow decarbonization solutions.
Incumbency around trading and working with.
Wholesale customers, we think we're best positioned to grow de carbonization solutions. So the three pronged strategy that we have historically employed around mid merit gas renewable and de carbonization.
Speaker 3: So the three-pronged strategy that we have historically employed around mid-merit gas, renewable and decarbonization solutions.
Solutions.
Speaker 3: You can expect an evolution of that.
You can expect an evolution of that.
Speaker 3: to focus more clearly on what our core markets are and how we build that zero pathways in those markets.
To focus more clearly on what our core markets are and how we build net zero pathways in those markets with increasing flexibility, but the notion of anchoring around mid merit natural gas asset is absolutely on point.
Speaker 3: with increasing flexibility, but the notion of anchoring around mid-merit natural gas assets is absolutely on point.
Speaker 3: And you'll, you'll, you'll see more clarity around which markets we like, why we like them and how we intend to grow in them.
And you'll.
Youll see more clarity around which markets, we like why do we like them and how we intend to grow in them.
Speaker 3: And I think the team, because of our focus now between corporate services, asset management, which is primarily focused on building and running our assets optimally, and then the clarity around our commercial vision, you know, I think you'll see
And I think the team because of our focus now between corporate services asset management, which is primarily focused on building and running our assets optimally.
Avik Dey: So we expect that that percentage compliance needs to be more akin to where the technology is today, so that percentage rate, we think should come down, can't comment on the exact percentage right now because it also depends on what the use of offsets are where we land on end of prescribed life. There's not any one provision that in itself is a silver bullet, you've got to take all of those provisions in context and then determine where to come out.
And then the clarity around our commercial vision.
You'll see.
Speaker 3: uh us do more in that regard um and and provide uh you know more clarity around what those core markets are which we've already talked about.
US do more in that regard.
And provide.
More clarity around what those core markets are which we've already talked about.
Speaker 3: You know, Alberta, Ontario, Miso, Desert Southwest now, you know, as I answered David's question around.
<unk>, Ontario, MISO Desert southwest now.
As I answered David's question around.
Speaker 7: Fredrickson won. You know, we see a growing opportunity in the Western US as well, which we've talked about in the past also.
Frederickson, one we see a growing opportunity in the western U S as well, which we've talked about in the past also.
Avik Dey: So CCS is so intrinsically tied into the CERB, the other provisions of CERB, we wouldn't advocate for one specific number. Having said that, at GenSC CCS, we still see the viability of that project in the context of CER legislation moving through, but it cannot without some of the tweaks that we've already publicly discussed. So I guess if you put aside the carbon assurance mechanism and just think about policy background for the CERB, and I think you mentioned that the final CERB might come in mid-2024, should we then assume that the CERB project is at least pushed to the end of 2024 in terms of position?
That's great. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
One moment for questions.
Speaker 1: Our next question comes from Mark Jarvy with CIBC, he may proceed.
Our next question comes from Mark Jarvi with CIBC you May proceed.
Speaker 8: Hi, good morning. Coming back to the Fredgit and Transaction, obviously, the valuation looks pretty attractive. Just wondering how you weigh a decision to move forward on an investment versus capital availability of liquidity, then change in terms of how you're seeing what deploying capital given, cost the capital a bit higher today, maybe a little tighter on internal funding, sort of updated views on willingness on what DLC do right now.
Hi, good morning.
Just coming back to the Fredriksen transaction, obviously, the valuation looks pretty attractive, but just wondering how you weigh the decision to move forward on our investment versus capital availability liquidity as.
Does anything change in terms of how youre thinking with deploying capital given cost of capital is a bit higher today, maybe a little tighter on internal funding sort of updated views on just your willingness on what deal city right now.
Sure, maybe I'll start and Sandra can follow I think this company over a long period of time has had a core focus around balance sheet discipline as a governor to how we look at acquisitions or growth opportunities I think that will continue to be there.
Speaker 3: Sure, maybe I'll start in, in San Zraken follow. You know, I think this company over a long period of time has had a core focus around balance sheet discipline as a governor to how we look at acquisitions or growth opportunities. I think that'll continue to be the case. I think where we are right now, this organization has also been really good at having conviction around.
Avik Dey: I can't make that assertion. You know, we came out with our guidance in the summer, which was we're near shovel ready on the technical aspect and we need to drive to a finish line on the commercial side. We have not had anyone on the federal side step back because of CERB on the engagement on the commercial side. We continue to have conversations. My colleagues and I were just in Ottawa a few weeks ago, progressing these conversations.
A case I think where we are right now.
This organization has also been really good at having conviction around which markets offer us opportunity from a generation perspective in particular on identifying assets. We think we can contract or capture value that the broader market doesn't see so to the <unk>.
Speaker 3: which markets offer us opportunity from a generation perspective, in particular on identifying assets we think we can contract or capture value that the broader market doesn't see.
Avik Dey: We have more discussions upcoming not one of those discussions have been tied directly to CERB. It's more been tied to, you know, how do we, how do we figure out CCFD or the alternative? And, you know, how do we actually, you know, put a shovel in the ground and get the project up and running? Understood.
Speaker 3: So to the extent that we can do it while maintaining our balance sheet strength.
That we can do it while maintaining our balance sheet strength.
Speaker 3: and doing it accretively will continue to look at those opportunities.
Doing it Accretively, we will continue to look at those opportunities that fit within our balance sheet capacity we.
Speaker 3: that fit within our balance sheet capacity. We don't expect that to change. I think we do expect to be more creative around how we solicit partners and a broader universe of partners.
Don't expect that to change I think we do expect to be more creative around how we solicit partners in a broader universe of partners. So that we can do things that are larger, but I would expect us to do more and be consistent with that approach. Sandra do you want to add anything to that yes, I think you're pretty much.
Avik Dey: If I could just finish off with a question to you on strategy. And obviously it seems like you're signaling that the mid-life natural gas strategy will continue with the FedEx in that position.
Speaker 3: so that we can do things that are larger, but I would expect us to do more and be consistent with that approach.
Avik Dey: And today we see a change in your executive team. You're coming up to six months with your, your ship here. And I'm wondering where you see the company's strategy today. How the executive team will help accelerate any part of that strategy. And if there are any areas you want to focus a little bit more on time in the near term. I think, you know, as we look forward, I'm incredibly excited about the executive team we've assembled.
Speaker 4: Sandra, do you want to add anything to that? Yeah, I think you're pretty much covered. I would say when we're looking at something like the drug concern acquisition, we do factor in what the current cost of funding are when we're making that decision. So we haven't found that we're in a position where we're unable to move forward with the right acquisition at this point in time.
<unk> covered and I would say when we're looking at something like district with snacks acquisition, we do factor in what the current cost of our funding our when we were making that decision. So we haven't found that.
In a position where we are unable to move forward with with the right. The right acquisitions at this point in time.
And then Sundar could you comment in terms of where you sit overall and just capital availability liquidity.
Speaker 8: I mean, Senator, can you comment in terms of where you sit overall and just capital availability, liquidity, you know, post-Frederick's in, if you had more investments to come up, how much can you internally finance? What sort of becomes a limiter in terms of, I guess, internally available cash flow and voluntary capacity relative to maybe external equity needs?
Avik Dey: It's come together, the full team is in place. And importantly, we've divided the organization into corporate services, asset management, asset management being engineering construction operations and then commercial. So as you've heard us say whether it's at investor presentations or through the last couple of quarters, we have a core competency around managing dispatchable base load power generation that's utility scale that today for the most part is thermal generation gas fire generation. We believe firmly that any part of achieving that zero in the markets we focus in needs companies to focus on that reliability first.
Post Frederickson, if you had more investments to come up how much can you internally finance, what sort of becomes a limiter in terms of I guess internally available cash flow and balance sheet capacity relative to maybe external equity needs.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so when you look at what we've got committed at this point in time, there's no need for incremental equity. As you recall, we turned on the drip last quarter and we see that that provides a required equity cushion that we need and would find other forms of financing in the terms of various forms of debt. So looking at our FFO to debt metric, it's very unconstrained in this year and when we're looking at next year, we still are remaining that investment grade credit rating, even with the incremental financing for the new project. So finally, we've got the liquidity to do.
So when you look at what we've.
Got committed at this point in time, there is no need for incremental equity as you recall, we turned on the drip.
Quarter, and we see that that provides us.
The required equity cushion that we need and would find other forms of financing in the terms of various forms of debt. So.
Looking at our <unk> to debt metric.
Very unconstrained in this year and when we're looking at next year, we still are.
Meaning that investment grade credit rating, even with incremental financing for the new projects, who find that we've got the liquidity to do.
Avik Dey: And we also see that as the entry point and catalyst for building decarbonization strategies if we're an incumbent in an existing electricity market with existing interconnects and incumbent the around trading and working with, you know, wholesale customers. We think we're best positions to grow decarbonization solutions. So the three prong strategy that we have historically employed around mid merit gas renewable and decarbonization solutions. You can expect an evolution of that to focus more clearly on what our core markets are and how we build net zero pathways in those markets with increasing flexibility, but the notion of anchoring around mid merit natural gas assets is absolutely on point.
Speaker 4: what's in the hopper, and even after we did that map, we were still able to bring progress.
What's in the Hopper and even after we did that that math, we were still able to bring Frederick fredrickson.
Speaker 4: to the fore without having to to read that video on the back of our transaction. So still.
Into into the fold without having to raise equity after that transaction.
We still have capacity and particularly incremental development capacity as you look at the deals.
Speaker 4: still have capacity and particularly incremental development capacity as you look at the build spend profiles that we continue to look at opportunities there as well as other acquisitions. So depending on where we're successful we'll drive the financing needs to go forward but at this point we're well situated.
And profiles.
We continue to look at opportunities there as well as other acquisition, so depending on where we're successful.
Drive the financing needs go forward, but at this point.
Well situated.
Speaker 8: Can you quantify the capacity you have right now for incremental investment?
Can you quantify sort of the capacity you have right now for incremental investments.
Speaker 4: It would really depend on the timing of it and how creative that investment was.
It would really depend on the timing of it and whatnot.
Avik Dey: And you'll you'll see more clarity around which markets we like why we like them and how we intend to grow in them. And I think the team because of our focus now between corporate services asset management, which is primarily focused on building and running our assets optimally. And then the clarity around our commercial vision, you know, I think you'll see us do more in that regard and provide, you know, more clarity around what those core markets are, which we've already talked about, you know, Alberta Ontario, my so desert Southwest now, you know, as I answered David's question around Fredrickson one, you know, we see a growing opportunity in the Western US as well, which we've talked about. But in the past also.
Accretive investment.
No.
Speaker 8: All right, and then just coming back to the question around the throne speech and some of the comments from Pimera Smith and then, Avek, your comments about energy only seems like the right fit. You believe for yourselves and the market Alberta. So what would you see as sort of options, not capacity options, but another thing is to address reliability. You could see coming in the market. And do you think there'd be anything they would do in terms of changing the bidding scheme in the market in terms of block bidding or anything like that?
Okay.
Exact numbers.
Alright, and then just coming back to the question around the throne speech and some of the comments from from Humira Smith, and then back to your comments about energy only it seems like the rigs hit you believe for yourselves and the market in Alberta, So what would you see as sort of options.
Unknown Executive: Thank you very much.
Unknown Executive: Thank you.
Not capacity options, but no other things to address reliability, you could see coming in the market and do you think there would be anything that you would do in terms of changing the bidding scheme in the market in terms of block bidding or anything like that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's early days to discuss specifics around, you know, well bidding or how the fundamental market structure works. I think what our expectation is at the moment is to really address some of the interconnect and congestion issues, which you could assume to be through some sort of ancillary service changes or products.
Yes, I think I think it's early days to discuss specifics around.
We'll bidding or how the fundamental market structure works I think what our expectation is at the moment is to really address some of the interconnect and congestion issues, which you could assume to be through some sort of ancillary service change.
Mark Jarvi: One moment for questions. Our next question goes from Mark Jarvy with CIVC, you may proceed.
Changes or products that would come to bear in the market that don't exist today.
Speaker 3: that would come to bear in the market that don't exist today. In terms of the fundamentals of energy only and seeing changes in how bidding strategy comes, I don't foresee that at the moment. I think as the throne speech indicated,
In terms of the.
Avik Dey: Hi, good morning. Coming back to the Fredrickson transaction, obviously the valuation looks pretty attractive. But just wondering how you weigh a decision to move forward on investment versus capital availability liquidity, you know, then change in terms of how you're saying what deploying capital given, you know, cost of capital is a bit higher today, maybe a little tighter internal funding, sort of updated views on willingness on what deals to do right now.
The fundamentals of energy only in and seeing changes in how bidding strategy funds.
We don't foresee that at the moment I think.
As the throne speech indicated.
Speaker 3: The primary driver around that is.
The primary driver around that is.
Speaker 3: you know, ensuring long-term decarbonization, new capacity, and addressing some of the short-term reliability.
Ensuring long term de carbonization, new capacity in addressing some of the short term reliability issues.
Avik Dey: Sure, maybe I'll start and Sandra can follow. I think this company over a long period of time has had a core focus around balance sheet discipline as a governor to how we look at acquisitions or growth opportunities. I think that will continue to be the case. I think where we are right now, this organization has also been really good at having conviction around which markets offer us opportunity from a generation perspective in particular on identifying assets we think we can contract or capture value that the broader market doesn't see.
Speaker 3: whether that reflects broader changes and on the affordability piece, it's really around regulated rate options for consumers.
Other that.
Avik Dey: So to the extent that we can do it while maintaining our balance sheet strength and doing it creatively will continue to look at those opportunities that fit within our balance sheet capacity. We don't expect that to change. I think we do expect to be more creative around how we solicit partners and a broader universe of partners so that we can do things that are larger. But, you know, I would expect us to do more and be consistent with that approach.
Reflects broader changes on the on the reliance on the affordability piece, it's really around regulated rate.
The options for consumers. So I think there is an open ended question there around what impact that would have directly on generation.
Speaker 3: So, you know, I think there's an open ended question there around, you know, what impact that would have directly on generation.
Speaker 8: Okay, and the last one for me, just during the CER and East Windsor, the date of January 1st for the new capacity coming in, is that something you'll be advocating to maybe address that, maybe push that out a little bit in terms of how you think East Windsor expansion might fit with the current rules under the draft legislation?
Okay and last one for me just around the CR in East Windsor and the date of January 1st for the new capacity coming in is that something you'll be advocating to maybe address that maybe pushed that out a little bit in terms of how you think east Windsor expansion might fit with the current rules under the draft legislation.
I think I would go back to my previous.
Speaker 3: I think I would go back to my previous response on CER. You know, comments are due for draft one tomorrow. We've been in active dialogue on that on from a federal perspective, but also from a Ontario Alberta, British Columbia perspective, given that's where we have existing fleet. And we expect, you know, constructive feedback, you know, as we move towards, you know, the next phase of the legislation.
Bonds on CER.
Comments are due for dropped one tomorrow, we've been in active dialog on that front.
From a federal perspective, but also from a Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia perspective, given that's where we have existing fleet.
And we expect constructive feedback.
As we move towards the next phase of the legislation.
Understood. Okay. Thanks for the time today.
Sandra Haskins: Sandra, do you want to add anything to that? Yeah, I think you pretty much covered it. I would say when we're looking at something like this, that position we do factor in what the current costs of funding are when we're when we're making that decision. So we haven't found that we're in a position where we're unable to move forward with the right, the right acquisition at this point in time.
Speaker 9: Thank you.
Thank you.
One moment for questions.
Our next question comes from John Mould with TD.
Speaker 1: Our next question comes from John Mold with key security, Z-Map receipt.
TD Securities you May proceed.
Okay. Thanks, Good morning, everybody, maybe just going back to the market structure question.
Speaker 10: Okay, thanks. Good morning, everybody. Me just going back to the market structure question and very much appreciated the early days for all this. But, so I'm wondering if you have an expectation just around the timing of this process and just thinking back to the capacity market. That was a pretty detailed stakeholder process with the ASO LAN.
Very much appreciate it's early days for all of this but I was wondering if you have an expectation just around the timing of this process and just thinking back to the capacity market that was a pretty detailed stakeholder process at the Asa will land.
Sandra Haskins: I mean, Sandra, can you comment in terms of where you sit overall and just capital availability, liquidity, you know, post Fredericks and if you had more investments that come up, how much can you internally finance what sort of becomes a limiter in terms of, I guess, internally available cash flow and voluntary capacity relative to maybe external equity needs. Yeah, so when you look at what we've got committed at this point in time, there's no need for incremental equity.
Speaker 10: You know, government proposals do include some more fundamental market structure changes, whether there's a capacity market, whether there's mandatory energy forward contracting. And does that create market structure uncertainty that makes it tougher to make an FID on products and Alberta?
Government proposals do include some more fundamental market structure changes, whether there is a capacity market whether there is mandatory.
Energy forward contracting and does that create market structure uncertainty that makes it tougher.
Sandra Haskins: As you recall, we turned on the drip last quarter and we see that that provides us the required equity question that we need and would find other forms of financing in the terms of various forms of debt. So looking at our FFO to debt metric, it's very unconstrained in this year and when we're looking at next year, we still are, you know, remaining that investment grade credit rating, even with the incremental financing for the new project.
To make an RFID on on projects in Alberta.
Appreciate your thoughts there.
I think without commenting specifically on Alberta investors are always looking for certainty to make capital allocation decisions.
Speaker 3: I think without commenting specifically on Alberta, investors are always looking for certainty to make capital allocation decisions. I think without commenting specifically on Alberta, investors are always looking for certainty to make capital allocation decisions.
We're no different.
Speaker 3: And so the clarity provided by the IRA in the U.S. to encourage capital investment is something we can look to to set a benchmark for making those long-term capital decisions.
And so the clarity provided by <unk> in the U S to encourage capital investment is something we can look to to set a benchmark for making those long term capital decisions. So I think we understand and agree with that there needs to be.
Sandra Haskins: So find that we've got the liquidity to do what's in the hopper. And even after we did that, that map, we were still able to bring for Fredericks and. Into into the fold without having to to raise equity on the back of our transaction, so still still have capacity and particularly incremental development capacity as you look at the build and profiles that we continue to look at at opportunities there as well as other acquisitions so depending on where we're successful will drive the financing needs go forward. We're well situated.
Speaker 3: So I think we understand and agree with that there needs to be some tweaks to the system in Alberta to accommodate congestion and the changing supply mix. But from a capital allocation perspective, we need certain.
Some tweaks to the system in Alberta to accommodate <unk>.
Congestion and the changing supply mix.
From a capital allocation perspective, we need certainty.
Speaker 3: So we're in a different position than a newcomer given our incumbency in Alberta and leadership position in Alberta. So on balance, we may be willing to take risks that a newcomer won't, but you cannot under appreciate the value of certain.
So we're in a different position than a newcomer given our incumbency in Alberta and leadership position in Alberta.
So on balance we may be willing to take risks that a newcomer won't but you cannot under appreciate the value of certainty for making those decisions and I think we look at that we look at that investment decision in Alberta the same.
Speaker 3: to making those decisions. And I think we look at that, we look at that investment decision in Alberta, the same as we would in Washington for Frederickson or Michigan for MTV or Ontario for our growth projects. So we take all of that into account as we make those capital allocation decisions.
Unknown Executive: Can you quantify sort of the capacity you have right now for incremental investment? It would really depend on the timing of it and how creative that investment was. Okay. Give it an exact number of points. All right.
As we would in Washington for Fredriksen or Michigan for MTV.
Or Ontario for growth projects. So we take all of that into account as we make those capital allocation decisions.
Avik Dey: And then just coming back to the question around the throne speech and some of the comments from Pimera Smith and then Avik, your comments about energy only seem like the right fit. But you believe for yourselves in the market Alberta. So what would you see as sort of options, not capacity options, but another thing is to address reliability. You could see coming to market and do you think there'd be anything they would do in terms of changing the bidding scheme in the market in terms of block bidding or anything like that.
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's that's great context. And then maybe just one on building regional scale, you're gonna see some real scale in Ontario once you're, when you've got it already, but even more so with your next set of growth projects coming online. And you've got core gas assets now in a number of, say, US kind of regional markets. And I'm wondering if at this point, there's a market in the US where you're seeing potential to gradually build something like your Ontario project.
Okay.
<unk> context, and then maybe just one on building regional scale youre going to see some real scale.
Ontario once you're.
You got it already but even more so with your next set of growth projects coming online in <unk>.
We've got core gas assets now in a number of of let's say U S regional markets and I'm wondering if at this point there is a market in the U S, where you're seeing potential to gradually build something like your Ontario projects.
Avik Dey: Yeah, I think I think it's early days to discuss the specifics around, you know, well bidding or how the fundamental market structure works. I think what our expectation is at the moment is to really address some of the interconnect and congestion issues, which you could assume to be through some sort of ancillary service. This changes or products that would come to bear in the market that don't exist today in terms of the, you know, the fundamentals of energy only in and seeing changes in how bidding strategy comes.
Like your platform in Ontario.
Speaker 3: I think we do, and I think.
I think we do.
Thank you.
Yes.
We've talked about this previously as well but.
Speaker 3: We've talked about this previously as well, but I think in my
I think in MISO.
Speaker 3: Western US and Ontario, we see similar situations that not only can we acquire critical natural gas assets, but we can build decarbonization solutions around that given the incumbent positions there. Whether it's because we've got existing assets, interconnections, relationships, building out.
Western U S and Ontario, we see similar situations that not only can we acquire critical natural gas assets, we can build de carbonization solutions around that given the incumbent positions. There so whether it's because we've got.
Existing assets interconnections relationships building building out storage solutions renewables capacity or even looking at things like Ccs, what we've seen in Alberta, and we've we've been in valve the great privilege of being a leader in the Alberta market is that income.
Avik Dey: I don't we don't foresee that at the moment. And I think, you know, as the throne speech indicated, the primary driver around that is, you know, ensuring long term decarbonization, new capacity and addressing some of the short term reliability issues, whether that, you know, reflects broader changes. It is on the, on the rely on the affordability piece, it's really around, you know, regulated rate options for consumers. So, you know, I think there's an open and a question there around, you know, what impact that would have directly on generation.
Speaker 3: or solutions, renewables capacity, or even looking at things like CCS.
Speaker 3: You know, what we've seen in Alberta and we've, you know, we've been endowed the great privilege of being a leader in the Alberta market is that incumbency gives us a great, great advantage.
And so it gives us a grading great advantage.
Speaker 3: So that's how we've been able to lean in over the last six or seven years and identify critical assets that we had conviction that we could go upgrade or extend or recontract and have demonstrated we can do that. So we're really applying that same strategy now, but to answer your question directly, Ontario, MISO, Western US are all right down the middle of the fairway that we see similar opportunities.
So that's how we've been able to lean in over the last six or seven years and identify critical assets that we had conviction that we could go up rate or extend or re contract and have demonstrated we can do that so we're really applying that same strategy now.
Avik Dey: Okay, and last one for me just during the CR East Windsor, the date of January 1st for the new capacity coming in. If that's something of the advocating to maybe address that, maybe push that out a little bit in terms of how you think East Windsor expansion might fit with the current rules under the draft legislation. I think I would go back to my, my previous response on CER, you know, comments are due for draft one tomorrow.
To answer your question directly, Ontario, MISO Western U S are all right down the middle of the fairway that we see similar opportunities in.
Speaker 10: Okay, that's great. Thanks very much for that context. I'll be back in a few.
Okay. That's great. Thanks, very much for that context, I'll get back in the queue.
Thank you.
One moment for questions.
Speaker 7: Our next question comes from Ben Van with BMO Capital Market, CME Proceed. I think so.
Our next question comes from Ben Pham with BMO capital markets. You May proceed.
Avik Dey: We've been in active dialogue on that on, on from a federal perspective, but also from a, you know, Ontario Alberta, British Columbia perspective, given that's where we have existing fleet. And we expect, you know, constructive feedback, you know, as we move towards, you know, the next phase of the legislation.
Hi, Thanks.
Got it.
Just on that last question your response on.
Speaker 11: the US market, historically M&A, and maybe you can build up our Gantt growth with that. Co-inside was you having some sort of US head.
The U S market, historically, M&A and maybe you can fill up.
Unknown Executive: Understood. Thanks for time today. Thank you.
Growth with that.
Coincide with.
You, having some sort of U S had.
Unknown Executive: One moment for questions.
John Mould: Our next question comes from John mold with key securities you may proceed. Okay, thanks.
As part of your executive changes.
That's correct.
Hi, guys yourselves.
Speaker 11: I got your soul, so you don't have that today necessary because it's more focused on M&A than US.
Don't have that.
Today necessarily because it's more focused on M&A in the U S well.
Speaker 3: Well, we're structuring so, you know, with the announcement of Jason, Comandante, taking on leadership of Canada. We are similarly in...
Well, we've we're structuring so with the announcement of Jason common Daunte, taking on leadership of Canada.
Unknown Executive: Good morning, everybody. I'm just going back to the market structure question and, you know, very much appreciated the early days for all this. But I'm just wondering if you have an expectation just around the timing of this process and thinking back to the capacity market. That was a pretty detailed stakeholder process of the APO land, and you know, government proposals do include some more fundamental market structure changes, whether there's a passing market, whether there's mandatory, you know, energy-forward contracting.
Similarly, and similarly, looking at you at the U S and having a more U S centric structure to help oversee the assets. There. So we don't have someone in place today, but.
Speaker 3: Similarly looking at US, at the US, in having a more US-centric structure to help oversee the assets there. So we don't have someone in place today, but the structure is in place today where we...
The structures in place today, where we've got.
Speaker 3: Canada reporting into Brian Denise as Chief Commercial Officer and similarly our US Commercial Operation is going to be reporting into Brian as well.
Canada reporting into Bryan Denise as Chief commercial officer, and similarly, our U S commercial.
Unknown Executive: And does that create market structure uncertainty that makes it tougher to make an FID on products in Alberta? I think without commenting specifically on Alberta, investors are always looking for certainty to make capital allocation decisions. We're no different. And so the clarity provided by the IRA in the U.S, to encourage capital investment is something we can look to to set a benchmark for making those long-term capital decisions. So I think we understand and agree with that there needs to be some tweaks to the system in Alberta to accommodate, you know, congestion and the changing supply mix.
Operation is going to be reporting into Brian as well.
Okay understood.
Speaker 11: Yeah, I'm understood and I wanted to
I wanted to.
Speaker 11: Also fall upon on the throne's beach, marked structure. I wanted to more clarify, I know there's...
I also follow up on a throne speech market structure I wanted to clarify I know there is.
Speaker 11: Maybe I read that the capacity markets is being evaluated, but there's not really any specific comment from the government on that.
Maybe I read that.
Pass it markets is being evaluated but there's not really any specific comment from the government on that.
<unk>.
Speaker 11: And if you can share, if possible, in your conversations with them, is part of considering a capacity market, is that coming up in a conversation?
And if you can share if possible is in your conversation with them is.
Considering our capacity market is that coming up in conversations.
It's interesting that it's come up on this call a few times now, but I am personally not heard the words capacity market.
Speaker 3: It's interesting that it's come up on this call a few times now, but I have personally not heard the words capacity market uttered in the conversations today. The conversations have been around what insult and silvery services do we need to add to address the market issues today. So I personally haven't heard that in all of the conversations I've had. So, you know, I think there's a
In the conversations today, the conversations have been around what in some ancillary services do we need to add to address the market issues today.
Unknown Executive: But from a capital allocation perspective, we need certainty. So, you know, we're in a different position than a newcomer given our incumbency in Alberta and leadership position in Alberta. So on balance, you know, we may be willing to make take risks that a newcomer won't, but you cannot under appreciate the value of certainty to making those decisions. And I think we look at that investment decision in Alberta the same as we would in Washington for Frederickson or Michigan for MTV or, you know, Ontario for our growth projects. So we take all of that into account as we make those capital allocation decisions. Yeah, that's the great context.
So I personally haven't heard that.
In all of the conversations I've had so.
I think there is a the the.
The notion that we've been through this before.
Speaker 3: The notion that we've been through this before and the market and the regulator and government have gone down the path of evaluating the capacity market and decided that the energy only market was the right way forward.
And the market and the regulator and government have gone down the path of evaluating a capacity market and decided that the energy only market was the right way forward is where we landed previously.
Speaker 3: where we landed previously and it feels as though.
Deals as though today the focus is on what specific tweaks and changes do we need to make to the market to reflect the challenges that we're facing right now today because of how successful we've been on renewables penetration in the market itself. So.
Speaker 3: Today the focus is on what specific tweaks and changes do we need to make for the market?
Speaker 3: to reflect the challenges that we're facing right now today.
Speaker 3: Because of how successful we've been on renewables penetration in the market itself so I haven't
Avik Dey: And then maybe just one on building regional scale. You're going to see some real scale in Ontario once you're, when you've got it already, but even more so with your, you know, next set of growth projects coming online. And you've got core gas assets now in a number of of, say, US kind of regional markets. And I'm wondering if at this point, there's a market in the US where you're seeing potential to gradually build something like your Ontario projects, like your platform in Ontario.
I haven't heard that.
Speaker 11: Okay, that makes it just want to make sure and more square that. So I'm gonna comment on your responses. And then maybe lastly, renewables versus gas and looking at your back, well, Gany. Okay.
That makes sense I, just wanted to make sure and more smart squared at some of the comments in your responses and then maybe lastly, renewables versus gas and looking at.
Backlog any.
Updated thoughts on that and relative attractiveness.
I think for US what's interesting is I think the access to grid critical infrastructure I E Interconnects.
Speaker 3: I think for us what's interesting is I think the access to
Speaker 3: grid-critical infrastructure, i.e. interconnect.
Speaker 3: is growing in value. And the best way to capture that is through buying existing
Is growing in value and the best way to capture that through buying existing.
Avik Dey: I think we do. And I think, you know, we've talked about this previously as well, but, you know, I think in my so Western US and Ontario, we see similar situations that not only can we acquire critical natural gas assets, but we can build decarbonization solutions around that given the incumbent positions there. So whether it's because we've got existing assets, interconnections, relationships, building, you know, building out storage solutions, renewables capacity, or even looking at things like CCS, you know, what we've seen in Alberta.
Speaker 3: connected assets, which is generally natural gas assets.
<unk> assets, which is generally natural gas assets I think on the renewables front, we continue to see opportunities to develop but I think our cost of capital isn't consistent with trying to go by operating assets. For example, we haven't seen that bid ask spread closed to date.
Speaker 3: I think on the renewables front, we continue to see opportunities to develop, but I think our cost of capital isn't consistent with trying to go by operating assets, for example. We haven't seen that bid-ask spread close to date.
Speaker 3: So, you know, from an acquisition front continuing to look at natural gas assets where we think we can bring our comparative advantages to bear and we've got a clear strategic advantage there to not just price the asset but to optimize the asset. That will continue to be a focus. And then I think on development, you know, we'll continue to see renewables be a focus in that regard.
From an acquisition front continuing to look at natural gas assets, where we think we can bring our comparative advantages to bear and we've got a clear strategic advantage. There so not just price the asset but to optimize the asset that will continue to be a focus and then I think on.
Development will continue to see renewables be a focus in that regard.
Avik Dey: And we've, you know, we've been inbound the great privilege of being a leader in the Alberta market. Is that incumbent to give us a great, great advantage? So that's how we've been able to lean in over last six or seven years and identify critical assets that we had conviction that we could go upgrade or extend or re-contract and have demonstrated we can do that. So we're really applying that same strategy now, but to answer your question directly, Ontario, my so Western US are all right down the middle of the fairway that we see similar opportunities.
Okay. Thanks Vivek.
Unknown Executive: Thank you.
Thank you and as a reminder to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone.
Speaker 1: Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. One moment for questions.
One moment for questions.
Okay.
Speaker 1: Our next question comes from Patrick Kenney with National Bank Financial, you may proceed.
Our next question comes from Patrick Kenny with National Bank Financial you May proceed.
Thank you good morning.
Speaker 3: Thank you. Good morning. Just to come back to the Genesee repowering. I know both units are still on track for the first half of next year, but just in light of some other larger projects in Western Canada finally approaching completion, others may be taking a little bit longer, but have there been any surprises, positive or negative, on just how, you know, labour availability or productivity has been trending?
Just to come back to the Genesee Repowering.
I know both units are still on track for the first half of next year, but.
Just in light of some other larger projects in Western Canada.
Lee approaching completion.
Others, maybe taken a little bit longer but have there been any surprises positive or negative.
Benjamin Pham: One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Ben Pham with BMO Capital Markets, you may proceed. I think this on our last question, your response on the US market, historically M&A, and maybe you can develop our Gantt growth. With that, coincide with you having some sort of US head as part of your executive changes. That's correct. I got you, so you don't have that today necessary because it's more focused on M&A than US.
How.
Labor availability for productivity has been trending.
Recently.
Speaker 3: I say compared to your base case assumption earlier in the summer to meet those in service dates.
They compared to your base case assumption.
Earlier in the summer to meet those in service dates.
Yes, thanks, Pat So what I would say is we've seen market improvement on labor availability and lower absenteeism at Repowering through the summer and that was based on our recast.
Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks Pat. So what I would say is we've seen market improvement on labor availability and lower absenteeism at repowering through the summer. And that was based on our recap.
Speaker 3: on the on the revised schedule and the revised budget that we put forward in the second quarter. I think the question is around materiality of changes and dates. So as he said, you know, we continue to be targeting.
On the on the revised schedule and the revised budget that we put forward in the second quarter.
I think the question is around <unk>.
Benjamin Pham: Well, we're structuring, so you know, with the announcement of Jason Comandante taking on leadership of Canada, we are similarly looking at US at the US in having a more US-centric structure to help oversee the assets there. So we don't have someone in place today, but the structure is in place today where we've got Canada reporting into Bryan DeNeve as chief commercial officer and similarly our US commercial operation is going to be reporting into Bryan as well.
Materiality of changes in dates so as he said.
We continue to be targeting mid.
Speaker 3: Mid-year next year, we continue to see volatility in that absenteeism, so the trend has been better than where we were running up to in the summer, but across the board, it continues to be a challenge, but we've seen positive results from the intervention.
Mid year next year, we continue to see volatility in that absenteeism. So the trend has been better than where we were running up to in the summer but across the board have continued as it continues to be a challenge, but we have seen positive results from the intervention. So.
Unknown Executive: Okay, understood.
Speaker 3: So, I think the precise dates are somewhat of a moving target, but generally at a macro level, we're quite satisfied with the improvements we've...
I think the precise dates.
Our.
Are somewhat of a moving target, but generally at a macro level. We're we're quite satisfied with the improvements we've seen.
Okay. Thanks for that Eric and then maybe for Sandra Bullock, if I missed it but just on the heels of the Fredriksen acquisition.
Speaker 10: Okay, thanks for that, Avak. And then maybe for Sandra, apologies if I missed it, but just on the heels of the Frederickson acquisition.
Benjamin Pham: I wanted to also fall on the throne speech market structure. I wanted to more clarify. I know there's maybe a read that capacity markets is being evaluated, but there's not really any specific comment from the government on that, and if you can share if possible is in your conversations with them, is are they considering a capacity market that's coming up in a conversation? It's interesting that it's come up on this call a few times now, but I have personally not heard the words capacity market uttered in the conversations today.
Speaker 12: re-bidding the North Carolina projects.
Rebidding, the North Carolina projects, how are you thinking about.
Speaker 12: fitting some non-core asset divestitures or selling minority interests as part of the overall funding plan for next year.
Fitting some noncore asset divestitures or selling minority interests.
As part of the overall funding plan for next year.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you've heard me say many times before that we do feel that based on our build multiple, you know, selling down a position of...
You've heard me say many times before that we do feel that based on our build multiple.
Moving down our position.
Speaker 4: of our portfolio or part of our portfolio would make a lot of sense. So, do you see that as a funding avenue that is available for us and look at just sort of where the market is at at any given point in time and what our need for capital is? So, certainly would have that right up there in the mix with...
Our portfolio or a part of our portfolio would make a lot of sense. So do you see that as a funding Avenue that is available for us and look at sort.
Sort of where the market is that at any given point in time and what our need for capital. We certainly would have that right up there in the mix.
Benjamin Pham: The conversations have been around what insult and silvery services do we need to add to address the market issues today? So I personally haven't heard that in all of the conversations I've had. So I think there's a the notion that we've been through this before and the market and the regulator and government have gone down the path of evaluating a capacity market and decided that the energy only market was the right way forward is where we landed previously and it feels as though today the focus is on what specific tweaks and changes do we need to make for the market to reflect the challenges that we're facing right now today because of how successful we've been on renewable penetration in the market itself.
Speaker 4: with our other options for funding next year.
With.
Unknown Executive: So I haven't heard that. Okay, that makes sense.
Other options for funding for next year.
Okay. That's perfect. That's it for me I'll leave it there thanks.
Speaker 1: Thank you. This concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Miss Cat Perone for any closing remarks.
Thank you. This concludes the question and answer session I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. <unk> for any closing remarks.
Okay.
Turning it over to you for closing remarks.
Thanks, Josh.
If there are no more questions. We will conclude our conference call. Thanks, again for joining us and for your interest in capital power today's presentation and webcast will be made available on capital power Dot com have a great day.
Speaker 2: If there are no more questions, we will conclude our conference call. Thanks again for joining us and for your interesting capital power. Today's presentation and webcast will be made available on capitalpower.com. Have a great.
Avik Dey: I just want to make sure and more and more square that I'm going to comment on your responses and then maybe lastly the renewables versus gas and looking at it. You're back. Well, any updated thoughts on that and relative attractiveness? I think for us what's interesting is I think the access to grid critical infrastructure i.e. Interconnect is growing in value and the best way to capture that is through buying existing connected assets, which is generally natural gas assets.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call you may disconnect. Your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.
Speaker 1: Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.
Okay.
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Avik Dey: But I think on the renewable front we continue to see opportunities to develop, but I think our cost of capital isn't consistent with trying to go by operating assets, for example, we haven't seen that bid ask spread close to date. So, you know, from an acquisition front continuing to look at natural gas assets where we think we can bring our comparative advantages to bear and we've got a clear strategic advantage there. So, not just price the asset, but to optimize the asset that will continue to be a focus. And then I think on development, you know, we'll continue to see renewables be a focus in that regard.
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Unknown Executive: Okay, thank you. Thank you.
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Unknown Executive: And as a reminder to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone one moment for questions.
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Patrick Kenny: Our next question comes from Patrick Kenny with National Bank Financial. You may proceed. Thank you.
Unknown Executive: Good morning. Just to come back to the Genesee repowering. I know both units are still on track for, you know, the first half of next year, but just in light of some other larger projects in Western Canada. You know, finally approaching completion. Others may be taking a little bit longer, but have there been any surprises positive or negative on just how, you know, neighbor availability productivity has been trending recently. Say, compared to your base case assumption earlier in the summer to meet those in service dates.
Okay.
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Okay.
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Unknown Executive: Yeah, thanks Pat. So what I would say is we've seen market improvement on labor availability and lower absenteeism at repowering through the summer. And that was based on our recast on the on the revised schedule and the revised budget that we put forward in the second quarter. I think the question is around materiality of changes and dates, as he said, you know, we continue to be targeting mid year next year, we continue to see volatility in that absenteeism.
Yes.
Okay.
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Unknown Executive: So the trend has been better than where we were running up to in the summer, but across the board, it continues to be a challenge, but we've seen positive results from the intervention. So, you know, I think the precise dates, you know, are, you know, are somewhat of a moving target, but, you know, generally at a macro level, we're quite satisfied with the improvements we've seen. Okay, thanks for that, Avak. And then maybe for Sandra, apologies if I missed it, but just on the heels of the Frederickson acquisition, and you know, re-bidding the North Carolina projects.
Okay.
Okay.
Hum.
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Unknown Executive: How are you thinking about, you know, fitting some non-core asset, the best truths or selling minority interests as part of the overall funding plan for next year? Yeah, you've heard me say many times before that we do feel that based on our build multiple, you know, selling down a position of our portfolio or a part of our portfolio would make a lot of sense. So, do you see that as a funding avenue that is available for us and, you know, look at just sort of where the market is at at any given point in time and what our need for capital is.
Unknown Executive: So, certainly would have that right up there in the mix with our other options for funding for next year. Okay, that's perfect. That's it for me. I'll leave it there. Thanks. Thank you. This concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Miss Cat Perron for any closing remarks. Cat, I'm turning it over to you for closing remarks. Thanks, Josh. If there are no more questions, we will conclude our conference call.
Unknown Executive: Thanks again for joining us and for your interest in capital power. Today's presentation and webcast will be made available on capitalpower.com. Have a great day. Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day. John Mould, Robert Hope, Pauline McLean[inaudible] John Mould, Robert Hope, Pauline McLean, John Mould Robert Hope, Pauline McLean, John Mould, Robert Hope, Pauline McLean, John Mould, Robert Hope, Pauline McLean[inaudible] John Mould, Robert Hope, Pauline McLean, John Mould, Robert[inaudible] John Mould, Robert Hope, Mark Jarvi, Pauline McLean, Pauline McLean[inaudible] on Flight 3 or a regular tourist filings available on Cedar.
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Speaker 1: Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to Capitol Powers, third quarter, 2023 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in a listen only mode and the conference call is being recorded today, November 1st, 2023. I will now turn the call over to Miss Cat Perone.
Okay.
Thank you for standing by this is the conference operator, welcome to capital Power's third quarter 2023 results Conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in a listen only mode and the conference call is being recorded today November one 2023, I will now turn the call over to MS Cat Barone manager of media.
Speaker 1: Manager of Media Relations and Communications, please go ahead.
Relations and communications. Please go ahead.
Speaker 2: Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to review Capital Powers 3rd Quarter 2023 results, which we released earlier this morning. Our 3rd Quarter Report and the presentation for this conference call are posted on our website at capitalpower.com.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to review capital Power's third quarter 2023 results, which we released earlier. This morning, our third quarter report and the presentation for this conference call are posted on our website at capital power Dot com.
Speaker 2: Presenting this morning are Avik Dey, President and CEO , and Sandra Haskins, Senior Vice President, Finance and CFO .
Presenting this morning are <unk>, president and CEO, and Sandra Hoskin, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO we.
Speaker 2: We will start with opening comments and then open the line to take your questions.
We will start with opening comments and then open the line to take your questions.
Speaker 2: Before we start, I'd like to remind everyone that certain statements about future events made on the call are forward looking in nature and are based on certain assumptions and analysis made by the company.
Before we start I'd like to remind everyone that certain statements about future events made on the call are forward looking at nature and are based on certain assumptions and analysis made by the company.
Speaker 2: actual results could differ materially from the company's expectations due to various risks and uncertainties associated with our business.
Actual results could differ materially from the company's expectations due to various risks and uncertainties associated with our business.
Speaker 2: Please refer to the cautionary statement on forward-looking information on slide three or a regulatory filings available on CEDA.
Please refer to the cautionary statement on forward looking information on slide three or our regulatory filings available on SEDAR.
Speaker 2: In today's discussion, we will be referring to various non-GAAP financial measures and ratios, also noted on slide three.
In today's discussion.
We will be referring to various non-GAAP financial measures and ratios also noted on slide three.
Speaker 2: These measures are not to find financial measures according to GAP and do not have standardized meetings prescribed by GAP and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures used by other entrepreneurs.
These measures are not defined financial measures. According to GAAP and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAAP and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures used by other enterprises. These.
Speaker 2: These measures are provided to complement the GAT measures, which are provided in the analysis of the company's results from management's perspective.
These measures are provided to complement the GAAP measures, which are provided in the analysis of the company's results from management's perspective.
Speaker 2: reconciliations of these non- GAAP financial measures to their near-step measure can be found in our third quarter, 2023 MZNA.
Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their nearest GAAP measure can be found in our third quarter 2023 MD&A.
Speaker 2: I would like to acknowledge that Kaplow Power's head office at Edmonton is located within the traditional and contemporary home of many indigenous peoples of the Treaty 6 region and the Mayt Nation of Alberta Region 4. We acknowledge the diverse indigenous communities that are in these areas and whose presence continues to enrich the community and our lives as we learn more about the indigenous history of the lands on which we live and work. We acknowledge the diverse indigenous peoples of the Treaty 6 region and our lives as a community.
I would like to acknowledge that capital power has had all of US at Edmonton is located within the traditional and contemporary home of many indigenous people of the Treaty six region and the <unk> nation of Alberta region for <unk>.
We acknowledge the diverse indigenous communities that are in these areas and whose presence continued to enrich the community and our lives as we learn more about the indigenous history of the land on which we live and work.
Before I turn it over to Amit.
Speaker 2: Slide five provides an overview of what we'll be covering on today's call. We'll start with updates on our net serve strategy. Introduce our expanded executive.
Slide five provides an overview of what we'll be covering on today's call.
We will start with updates on our net zero strategy introduced our expanded executive team.
Speaker 2: Discuss progress on our strategic growth, provide financial results including 2023, full year guidance, and finally, we'll wrap up with details regarding our upcoming investor.
Progress on our strategic growth provide financial results, including 2023 full year guidance and finally, we'll wrap up with details regarding our upcoming Investor day.
Speaker 2: With that, I will turn it over to Avick for his remarks starting on slide.
With that I will turn it over to Eric for his remarks, starting on slide six.
Speaker 3: Thanks, Cad, and good morning. During our last call, I talked about our strategic focus on delivering reliable, affordable, and decarbonized power, which will be built on three strategic pillars, grade critical baseload generation, renewable generation, and the pursuit of decarbonization solutions. I'll provide a brief update on our progress in these areas before commenting on the quarterly results. Thank you.
Thanks, Kathy and good morning during our last call I talked about our strategic focus on delivering reliable affordable and Decarbonize power, which will be built on three strategic pillars grid critical baseload generation renewable generation and the pursuit of de carbonization solution.
I'll provide a brief update on our progress in these areas before commenting on the quarterly results. Our 135 billion Genesee Repowering project represents a critical step towards dispatch of all baseload generation by providing an additional 512 megawatts of net capacity.
Speaker 3: Our 1.35 billion dollar Genesee repowering project represents a critical step towards dispatchable base load generation by providing an additional 512 megawatts of net capacity for Alberta. We continue to deliver on our midlife natural gas strategy as demonstrated by our agreement to acquire the Fredericks and one generating station which will deliver 265 megawatts of reliable base load generation to the Puget Sound Region.
For Alberta, we continue to deliver on our mid life natural gas strategy as demonstrated by our agreement to acquire the frederickson, one generating station, which will deliver 265 megawatts of reliable baseload generation to the Puget Sound region on the renewal renewables front construction is under.
Speaker 3: On the renewables front, construction is underway for the Halcurt 2 Wind Project, and continue to see great progress on the Maple Leaf Solar and Ontario DESS.
<unk> for the <unk>, two wind project and continue to see great progress on the Maple leaf solar in Ontario.
SaaS projects.
Speaker 3: Finally, our decarbonization efforts continue through the Genesee Repowering Project, which will reduce annual CO2 emissions from the facility by 3.4 million tons from 2019 levels. We are also actively engaged in ongoing commercial discussions to advance our near-shuffle ready Genesee CCS project.
Finally, our de Carbonization efforts continue through the Genesee Repowering project, which will reduce annual cotwo emissions from the facility by three 4 million tons from 2019 levels.
We're also actively engaged in ongoing commercial discussions to advance our near shovel ready Genesee Ccs project.
Speaker 3: These projects and initiatives demonstrate that we are taking a balanced, thoughtful approach to energy transition and delivering on our net zero strategy. Addressing climate change is an urgent generational challenge and we're proud to take the leading role in decarbonizing our power system to deliver a long-term value for our business communities and planet. Now, I'll speak about key highlights from this quarter.
These projects and initiatives demonstrate that we are taking a balanced thoughtful approach to energy transition and delivering on our net zero strategy addressing climate change is an urgent generational challenge and we're proud to take a leading role in decarbonising, our power system to deliver long term value for our.
Business communities and planet now, let's speak about key highlights from this quarter.
Speaker 3: I'd like to introduce you to our expanded executive team, a combination of internal promotions and an external new member with decades of experience in the energy industry. They will lead our company to net zero by 2045.
I'd like to introduce you to our expanded executive team a combination of internal promotions and external new member with decades of experience in the energy industry. They will lead our company to net zero by 2045.
Speaker 3: In corporate services, May Wong has been promoted to Senior Vice President, Strategy Planning and Sustainability, and will lead our corporate strategy, Sustainability Efforts, and Long-term Planning. May previously held the role of Vice President of Strategy Forecasting and Sustainability, and has been with the company for 20 years.
In corporate services May Wang has been promoted to senior Vice President strategy planning and sustainability and will lead our corporate strategy sustainability efforts and long term planning. They previously held the role of Vice President of strategy forecasting and sustainability and has been with the company for 20 years.
Speaker 3: Pauline McLean joins us from the Alberta Electric System Operator, where she spent 14 years in senior legal and commercial roles. Pauline leads our legal regulatory, corporate compliance and external relations functions of capital power and provides support, risk management, and strategic insights to senior management and the board of directors.
Pauline Mcclain joins us from the Alberta Electric system, operator, where she spent 14 years in senior legal and commercial roles Pauline leads our legal regulatory and corporate compliance and external relations functions of capital power and provide support risk management and strategic insights to senior man.
Rent and the board of directors.
Speaker 3: In asset management, Steve Wollin has been promoted to Senior Vice President Operations and will oversee the safe operations of our fleet, which includes the functions of operations, supply chain, and health, safety, security, and environment. He is responsible for reliability and plant efficiency programs that provide industry-leading plant availability and emissions reduction.
In asset management, Steve Wallach has been promoted to senior Vice President operations and will oversee the safe operations of our fleet, which includes the functions of operations supply chain and health safety security and environment. He is responsible for reliability and plant efficiency programs that provide industry.
Three leading plant availability and emissions reductions Steve previously held the position of Vice President of thermal operations Eastern Renewables and Vice President Engineering, and also brings knowledge and experience in pre and post combustion carbon capture technologies, Steve has been with the company for 22 <unk>.
Speaker 3: Steve previously held the positions of Vice President, Thermal Operations East and Renewables, and Vice President Engineering, and also brings knowledge and experience in pre and post-combustion carbon capture technologies. Steve has been with the company for 22 years. Steve has been with the company for 22 years.
Unknown Executive: In today's discussion, we will be referring to various non-gap financial measures and ratios also noted on slide three. These measures are not to find financial measures according to gap and do not have standardized meetings prescribed by gap and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures used by other enterprises. I would like to acknowledge that Capital Power's head office in Edmonton is located within the traditional and contemporary home of many Indigenous peoples of the Treaty 6 region and the Native Nation of Alberta Region 4.
Yes.
Speaker 3: Jason Comandante has also been promoted to become our Senior Vice President, Head of Canada.
Jason Common Dante has also been promoted to become our senior Vice President head of Canada, Jason oversees the physical and financial optimization of our Canadian fleet, including the execution of Canadian development and acquisition opportunities and the assessment and investment and de Carbonization technologies in <unk>.
Speaker 3: Jason oversees the physical and financial optimization of our Canadian fleet, including the execution of Canadian development and acquisition opportunities, and the assessment and investment in decarbonization technologies in Canada. Jason has held senior leadership roles in commodity trading, corporate strategy, regulatory and commercial management, and has been with the company for 22 years.
Canada, Jason has held senior leadership roles in commodity trading corporate strategy regulatory and commercial management and has been with the company for 22 years.
Speaker 3: And finally, Brian Deneev moves into a new role as Senior Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer, where he now oversees commercial business initiatives across North America, including the physical and financial optimization, decarbonization of capital powers.
And finally, Brian Denise moves into a new role as senior Vice President Chief Commercial officer, where he now overseas commercial business initiatives across North America, including the physical and financial optimization de carbonization of capital Power's fleet.
Unknown Executive: We acknowledge the diverse Indigenous communities that are in these areas and whose presence continues to enrich the community and our lives as we learn more about the Indigenous history of the lands on which we live and work. Before I turn it over to Avik, slide five provides an overview of what we'll be covering on today's call. We'll start with updates on our net zero strategy, introduce our expanded executive team, discuss progress on our strategic growth, provide financial results, including 2023, full year guidance, and finally we'll wrap up with details regarding our upcoming investor day.
Speaker 3: Ryan has previously served as Senior Vice President Operations, as well as Senior Vice President Business Development and Commercial Services, and Senior Vice President Finance and CFO .
Ryan has previously served as senior Vice President operations as well as senior Vice President business development, and commercial services and senior Vice President Finance and CFO.
Speaker 3: Sandra Hoskins, Jackie Pilipiyuk and Steve Owens continue to serve in their current roles.
Sandra Haskins, Jackie <unk>, and Steve Owens continuing to serve in their current roles.
Speaker 3: With their industry experience and expertise, this dynamic group is the propelling force behind the development of critical solutions that will meet the growing long-term demand for power across North America. I'm happy to extend a warm welcome to Pauline, May, Jason, and Steve to our leadership.
With their industry experience and expertise this dynamic group as the propelling force behind the development of critical solutions that will meet the growing long term demand for power across North America.
Unknown Executive: With that, I will turn it over to Avik for his remarks starting on slide six. Thanks, Cad, and good morning. During our last call, I talked about our strategic focus on delivering reliable, affordable and decarbonized power, which will be built on three strategic pillars. Great critical base load generation, renewable generation, and the pursuit of decarbonization solutions. I'll provide a brief update on our progress in these areas before commenting on the quarterly results.
Happy to extend a warm welcome to Pauline may Jason and Steve to our leadership team.
Speaker 3: We have a very strong pipeline of growth, whether that be through acquisition or development, that we have consistently converted to fleet capacity driving long-term shareholder values.
We have a very strong pipeline of growth whether that be through acquisition or development that we have consistently converted to fleet capacity driving long term shareholder value with projects under development and announced this year, we will be adding over one two gigawatt of capacity to our <unk>.
Speaker 3: With projects under development and announced this year, we will be adding over 1.2 gigawatt of capacity to our fleet going out to 2026.
Sleep going out to 2026, bringing the total capacity added since 2022 to two three gigawatt in five different power markets across North America.
Unknown Executive: Our 1.35 billion dollar Genesee repowering project represents a critical step towards dispatchable base load generation by providing an additional 512 megawatts of net capacity for Alberta. We continue to deliver on our midlife natural gas strategy is demonstrated by our agreement to acquire the Fredericks and one generating station, which will deliver 265 megawatts of reliable base load generation to the Puget Sound region. On the renewables front, construction is underway for the Halcourt to wind project and continue to see great progress on the Maple Leaf Solar and Ontario DESS projects.
Speaker 3: bringing the total capacity added since 2022 to 2.3 gigawatt in five different power markets across North America.
Speaker 3: Our pipeline has a strong inventory of projects with another 4.2 gigawatt of near term growth opportunities and our strategic alignment with first solar means that we have secured one gigawatt of responsibly produced ultra low carbon solar modules that will ensure our US projects meet the domestic content rules under the inflation reduction act.
Our pipeline has a strong inventory of projects with another 4.2 gigawatt of near term growth opportunities and our strategic alignment with first solar means that we have secured one gigawatt of responsibly produced ultra low carbon solar modules that will ensure our U S. <unk>.
<unk> domestic content rules under the inflation reduction Act.
Speaker 3: Now, I would like to talk about our recent acquisition agreement as we continue to strategically grow our fleet with grid critical dispatchable, base load natural gas assets.
Now I would like to talk about our recent acquisition agreement as we continue to strategically grow our fleet with grid critical dispatch of all base load natural gas assets.
Unknown Executive: Finally, our decarbonization efforts continue through the Genesee repowering project, which will reduce annual CO2 emissions from the facility by 3.4 million tons from 2019 levels. We are also actively engaged in ongoing commercial discussions to advance our near shovel ready Genesee CCS project. These projects and initiatives demonstrate that we are taking a balanced thoughtful approach to energy transition and delivering on our net zero strategy. Addressing climate change is an urgent generational challenge and we're proud to take the leading role in decarbonizing our power system to deliver long-term value for our business communities and planet. Now, let's speak about key highlights from this quarter.
Speaker 3: Frederickson 1 generating station represents an excellent strategic fit with our fleet by providing an additional 265 megawatts of flexible, fully contracted, baseload generation.
<unk> generating station represents an excellent strategic fit with our fleet, while providing an additional 265 megawatts of flexible fully contracted baseload generation. The facility is in the Pacific Northwest, which further diversifies, our geographic footprint and is well.
Speaker 3: The facility is in the Pacific Northwest, which further diversifies our geographic footprint, and is well positioned for re-contracting opportunities with legacy coal retirement on the horizon.
<unk> for re contracting opportunities with legacy coal retirements on the horizon.
Speaker 3: In addition, the facility sits on approximately seven acres of land and is adjacent to additional land owned by capital power. This represents a prime location for future development such as a battery installation or a hybrid opportunity.
In addition, the facility sits on approximately seven acres of land and is adjacent to additional land owned by capital power. This represents a prime location for future developments, such as our battery installation or a hybrid opportunity.
Avik Dey: I'd like to introduce you to our expanded executive team, a combination of internal promotions and an external new member. With decades of experience in the energy industry, they will lead our company to net zero by 2045. In corporate services, May Wong has been promoted to Senior Vice President, Strategy, Planning, and Sustainability, and will lead our corporate strategy, sustainability efforts, and long-term planning. May previously held the role of Vice President of Strategy, Forecasting, and Sustainability, and has been with the company for 20 years.
Speaker 3: The facility is expected to deliver average contracted EBITO of 15 million US per year during the five year period of 2024 to 2029. With a creative near-term cash flows and will be financed using cash on hand and credit for sale.
The facility is expected to deliver average contracted EBITDA of $15 million U S per year. During the five year period of 2024 to 2029 with accretive near term cash flows and will be financed using cash on hand and credit facilities. We.
Speaker 3: We anticipate the transaction to close in late 2023 with no significant impact on this year, this fiscal year's results.
We anticipate the transaction to close in late 2023 with no significant impact on this year this fiscal year's results.
Highlighted by the map on Slide 10. The addition of Frederickson, one fits very well with the key criteria. We look for in the energy markets that we invest in and strategically diversifies our presence across North America.
Speaker 3: highlighted by the map on slide 10. The addition of Fredrickson 1 fits very well with the key criteria we look for in the energy markets that we invest in and strategically diversifies our presence across North America.
Avik Dey: Pauline McLean joins us from the Alberta Electric System Operator, where she spent 14 years in senior legal and commercial roles. Pauline leads our legal, regulatory, corporate compliance, and external relations functions of capital power, and provides support, risk management, and strategic insights to senior management and the board of directors. In asset management, Steve Wollin has been promoted to Senior Vice President Operations, and will oversee the safe operations of our fleet, which includes the functions of operations, supply chain, and health, safety, security, and environment.
Speaker 3: Our expertise to assess, determine, and capitalize on the right market opportunities, supported by our ability to optimize, operate, and deliver leading reliability results from our assets, is driving value for our business.
Our expertise to SaaS determine and capitalize on the right market opportunities supported by our ability to optimize operate and deliver leading reliability results from our assets is driving value for our business.
Speaker 3: Geographic diversification of our fleet in markets that hit our sweet spot will provide long-term opportunities for our balanced approach to energy trends.
Geographic diversification of our fleet in markets that hit our sweet spot will provide long term opportunities for our balanced approach to energy transition.
Avik Dey: He is responsible for reliability and plant efficiency programs that provide industry-leading plant availability and emissions reductions. Steve previously held the positions of Vice President, Thermal Operations East and Renewables, and Vice President Engineering, and also brings knowledge and experience in pre and post-combustion carbon capture technologies. Steve has been with the company for 22 years. Jason Comandante has also been promoted to become our Senior Vice President, head of Canada. Jason oversees the physical and financial optimization of our Canadian fleet, including the execution of Canadian development and acquisition opportunities, and the assessment and investment in decarbonization technologies in Canada.
Speaker 3: I now like to pass it to Sandra to review our financial highlights for the quarter.
I'd now like to pass it to Sandra to review, our financial highlights for the quarter.
Thanks, Eric.
Speaker 4: Strong fleet-wide performance with an average availability of 96% led to reported adjusted EBITDA of $410 million for the third quarter, an increase of 7% year over year.
Strong fleet wide performance with an average availability of 96% led to reported adjusted EBITDA of $410 million for the third quarter, an increase of 7% year over year.
Speaker 4: The benefits of a diversified suite were highlighted in the quarter as the growth was primarily driven by strong contributions from our US and Ontario contracted segments, including a full quarters result from MCD acquired in September 2022.
The benefits of a diversified fleet were highlighted in the quarter as the growth was primarily driven by strong contributions from our U S and Ontario contracted segment.
<unk> a full quarter's results from Mcd acquired in September 2022.
Speaker 4: This offset the impact of lower prices captured by our Alberta commercial segments compared to 2022.
This offset the impact of lower prices captured by our Alberta commercial segment compared to 2022.
Speaker 4: AFFO of 960 million in the quarter is down 10% from a year ago.
<unk> of $960 million in the quarter is down 10% from a year ago.
Avik Dey: Jason has held senior leadership roles in commodity trading, corporate strategy, regulatory, and commercial management, and has been with the company for 22 years. And finally, Brian Deniv moves into a new role as Senior Vice President Chief Commercial Officer where he now oversees commercial business initiatives across North America, including the physical and financial optimization decarbonization of capital power fleet. Brian has previously served as Senior Vice President Operations, as well as Senior Vice President Business Development and Commercial Services, and Senior Vice President Finance and CFO.
Speaker 4: A strong adestative but a result and lower shutdown capital spend in the quarter were offset by higher current income taxes, higher finance expense due to the green hybrid subordinated notes issued in the third quarter of 2022, and lower realized gains on settlement of interest rate derivatives compared to 2022.
Wrong adjusted EBITDA result, in lower shutdown capital spend in the quarter were offset by higher current income taxes higher finance expense due to the green hybrid subordinated notes issued in the third quarter of 2022, and lower realized gains on settlement of interest rate derivative compared to 2022.
The financial performance for the nine months of the year reflect strong Alberta commercial segment results driven by higher realized power prices on our portfolio and nine months of contribution from MTV, leading to adjusted EBITDA of $1 1 billion, which was up 8% over the same period in 2022.
Speaker 4: The financial performance for the nine months of the year reflects strong Alberta commercial segment results driven by higher realized power prices on our portfolio and nine months of contribution from MTV leading to adjusted EBITDA of 1.1 billion, which was up 8% over the same period in 2022.
Avik Dey: Sandra Haskins, Jackie Pilipiyak, and Steve Owens continue to serve in their current roles. With their industry experience and expertise, this dynamic group is the propelling force behind the development of critical solutions that will meet the growing long-term demand for power across North America.
Speaker 4: AFFO of 657 million was down 7% year over year due to the impact the higher current income taxes and finance expenses offset by lower shutdown capital spend and preferred dividends paid.
<unk> of $657 million was down 7% year over year due to the impacts of higher current income taxes and finance expenses.
By lower shutdown capital spend and preferred dividends paid.
Avik Dey: I'm happy to extend a warm welcome to Pauline, May, Jason, and Steve to our leadership team. We have a very strong pipeline of growth, whether that be through acquisition or development, that we have consistently converted to fleet capacity driving long-term shareholder value. With projects under development and announced this year, we will be adding over 1.2 gigawatt of capacity to our fleet going out to 2026, bringing the total capacity added since 2022 to 2.3 gigawatt in five different power markets across North America.
Speaker 4: I'll touch on our Alberta Power and Natural Gas head positions, which are shown as of the 10th of 30th, 2023.
I'll touch on our Alberta power and natural gas hedge positions, which are shown as of September 32023.
Speaker 4: Since the end of the second quarter, our power hedge volume for 2024 to 2026 have once again increased. For 2024, it has gone up from 8500 to 9500 gigawatt hours and from 7,000 to 8500 gigawatt hours for 2025. For 2026, the hedge volumes have gone up from 5500 to 7500 gigawatt hours.
Since the end of the second quarter, our power hedge volumes for 2024 to 2026 have once again increased.
For 2024, it has gone up from 8500 9500 gigawatt hours.
From 7000 to 8500 gigawatt hours for 2025.
For 2026, the hedge volumes have gone up from 5500 7500 gigawatt hours.
The weighted average hedge prices are mid $70 per megawatt hour across all three years.
Speaker 4: The weighted average hand prices are a mid-$70 from a 1-hour across all three years.
Speaker 4: The hedge positions include long duration origination contracts as another mechanism to manage price risk.
Avik Dey: Our pipeline has a strong inventory of projects with another 4.2 gigawatt of near-term growth opportunities, and our strategic alignment with first solar means that we have secured one gigawatt of responsibly produced ultra-low carbon solar modules that will ensure our UF projects meet domestic content rules under the inflation reduction F.
The hedge positions include long duration origination contracts is another mechanism to manage risk.
Speaker 4: The graph on the left shows the relative magnitude of hedges that are long duration.
The graph on the left shows the relative magnitude of hedges that are long duration.
Speaker 4: Our natural gas hedge volumes of 70,000 TJs for 2024 remains unchanged from 2022 while 2025 has slightly decreased from 60,000 TJs to 55,000 TJs as a result of some portfolio rebalancing activities to better tailor our hedges to our portfolio needs.
Our natural gas hedge volumes at 70000 T. J for 2024 remains unchanged from 2022, while 2025 to slightly decrease.
T J statistic like that T. J as a result of some portfolio rebalancing activity to better tailor, our hedges to our portfolio.
Avik Dey: Now, I would like to talk about our recent acquisition agreement as we continue to strategically grow our fleet with grid-critical, dispatchable, baseload, natural gas assets. Frederickson I generating station represents an excellent strategic fit with our fleet by providing an additional 265 megawatts of flexible, fully contracted, baseload generation. The facility is in the Pacific Northwest which further diversifies our geographic footprint and is well positioned for re-contracting opportunities with legacy coal retirement on the horizon.
Speaker 4: In 2026, we have increased our natural gas hedging volume from 45,000 to 50,000 TJs.
In 2026th we have increased our natural gas hedging volume from 45000 to 50000 T J.
Speaker 4: Natural gas volumes have been hatched at favorable prices compared to turn 4 over.
Natural gas volumes have been hedged at favorable prices compared to current forward.
Speaker 4: I'll conclude our remarks by reviewing our nine month performance relative to our 2023 target.
I'll conclude my remarks by reviewing our nine months performance relative to our 2023 target.
Speaker 4: We continue to have high-plant reliability and availability. Our average facility availability of 95% for the first nine months of the year, and we expect to finish the year at or slightly above our availability target of 94%.
We continue to have high plant reliability and availability.
Our average facility availability of 95% for the first nine months of the year and we expect to finish the year at or slightly above our availability target of 94%.
Avik Dey: In addition, the facility sits on approximately seven acres of land and is adjacent to additional land owned by Capital Power. This represents a prime location for future developments such as a battery installation or a hybrid opportunity. The facility is expected to deliver average contracted EBITDA of 15 million US per year during the five year period of 2024 to 2029 with a creative near-term cash flows and will be financed using cash on hand and credit facilities.
Speaker 4: Sustaining CAPEX was 99 million in the first nine months and is on track to meet our 2023 target of 135 million to 145 million.
Sustaining capex was $99 million in the first nine months and is on track to meet our 2023 target of $135 million to $145 million.
Speaker 4: with respect to the financial performance targets of 1.455 billion to 1.51 billion.
With respect to the financial performance targets of one $4 95 billion to 151 billion.
Speaker 4: 1.515 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and 805 million to 865 million in AFF cells, based on the Alberta Power Forward crisis heading into the quarter, our 2023 full year financial results are trending to be below the midpoint of our guidance ranges for AFF-O and adjusted EBITDA.
1151, 5 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and 805 million to $865 million in Etfs.
Based on the Alberta power forward prices heading into the quarter. Our 2023 full year financial results are trending to be below the midpoint of our guidance ranges for <unk> and adjusted EBITDA.
Avik Dey: We anticipate the transaction to close in late 2023 with no significant impact on this year, this fiscal year's results. I lighted by the map on slide 10, the addition of Frederickson I fits very well with the key criteria we look for in the energy markets that we invest in and strategically diversifies our presence across North America. Our expertise to assess, determine, and capitalize on the right market opportunities supported by our ability to optimize, operate, and deliver leading reliability result from our assets is driving value for our business. Geographic diversification of our fleet in markets that hit our sweet spot will provide long-term opportunities for our balanced approach to energy transition.
Speaker 4: Lastly, I know many of you have been asking about our plans for an yesterday, and I'm excited to announce that we will be changing things up a bit this year by hosting the event here in Edmonton on May 7th and 8th, 2024.
Lastly, I know many of you have been asking about our plans for Investor day, and I am excited to announce that we will be changing things up a bit this year by hosting the event here in Edmonton on May 7th and eighth 2024.
Speaker 4: The experience will include a tour of the Gen.C. generating station and power project site.
The experience will include a tour of the Genesee generating station in power Repower projects.
Speaker 4: We will be releasing further details on the event, along with 2024 guidance information later this year. With that, I'll now turn it back over to Kat. Thank you.
We will be releasing further details on the event along with 2024 guidance information later this year.
With that I'll now turn it back over to Kent.
Okay.
Thanks, Sandra Josh we are now ready to take questions.
Speaker 1: Thank you. We will now begin the Q&A question and answer session to join the question queue. You may press star 1-1 on your phone to raise your hand. We will pause for a moment as collars join the...
Thank you we will now begin the Q&A question and answer session to join the question queue. You May Press Star one on your phone to raise your hand, we will pause for a moment as callers join the queue.
Sandra Haskins: I now like to pass it to Sandra to review our financial highlights for the quarter. Thanks, Avick. Strong, sweet, wide performance with an average availability of 96 percent led to reported adjusted EBITDA of 410 million for the third quarter and increase of 7 percent year over year. The benefits of a diversified fleet were highlighted in the quarter as the growth was primarily driven by strong contributions from our US and Ontario contracted segments, including a full quarter's results from MCB acquired in September 2022.
Speaker 1: Our first question comes from David Kisato with Raymond James, you may proceed.
Our first question comes from David <unk> with Raymond James You May proceed.
Speaker 5: Thanks, morning everyone. Just maybe my first question on the Fredricson acquisition, now that you have a facility in the Pacific Northwest, do you see that as another hub and you see sort of growth opportunities surrounding that and maybe on a related note? What kind of timeline would you be looking at for some of the other opportunities at that site that you mentioned?
Hi, Thanks, good morning, everyone.
Maybe my first question on the on the Frederickson acquisition.
Do you have a facility in the Pacific Northwest do you see that as another hub MDC sort of.
Growth opportunities surrounding that and maybe on a related note what kind of timeline would you be looking at for some of the other opportunities at that site that you mentioned.
Speaker 3: Thanks David for the question. So we think the entire Western U.S.
Thanks, David for the question. So we think the entire Western U S.
Sandra Haskins: This offset the impact of lower prices captured by our Alberta commercial segments compared to 2022. AFFO of 960 million in the quarter is down 10 percent from a year ago. Strong capital spend in the quarter were offset by higher current income taxes, higher finance expense due to the green hybrid subordinated notes issued in the third quarter of 2022, and lower realized gains on settlement of interest rate derivatives compared to 2022. The financial performance for the nine months of the year reflects strong Alberta commercial segment results driven by higher realized power prices on our portfolio and nine months of contribution from MCB leading to adjusted EBITDA of 1.1 billion, which was up 8 percent over the same period in 2022.
Speaker 3: We've got our existing position in Desert South West at Arlington.
We've got our existing position and desert southwest at Arlington.
Speaker 3: We've been active in that region from Desert Southwest all the way up through the Pacific Northwest.
<unk> been active in that region from desert southwest all the way up through the Pacific Northwest historically at the company, whether it's through <unk>.
Speaker 3: historically at the company, whether it's through operating assets, through the previous LP or just being an active participant on the trading side. So we continue to see additional opportunities in the broader region and believe it'll be a core focus area for us.
Operating assets through the previous LP or just being an active participant on the trading side. So we continue to see additional opportunities in the broader region.
And believe it will be a core focus area for us in terms of other opportunities in and around the existing position we have active dialogue around other opportunities.
Speaker 3: In terms of other opportunities in and around the existing position, we have active dialogue around other opportunities utilizing our existing acres, but they're all...
Utilizing our existing acreage, but they are all <unk>.
Speaker 3: very early days, nothing that is
Early days nothing that is.
Speaker 3: I would call investible in the short term, but their active conversation.
Sandra Haskins: AFFO of 657 million was down 7% year-over-year due to the impact the higher current income taxes and finance expenses offset by lower shutdown capital spend and preferred dividends paid. I'll touch on our Alberta Power and Natural Gas hedge positions which are shown as of September 30, 2023. Since the end of the second quarter, our power hedge volume for 2024 to 2026 have once again increased. For 2024, it has gone up from 8500 to 9500 gigawatt hours and from 7,000 to 8500 gigawatt hours for 2025.
Would call investable in the short term.
But there are active conversations and more broadly, we see opportunities as well, whether it's acquisition or partnering.
Speaker 3: And more broadly, we see opportunities as well, whether it's acquisition or partnering.
Speaker 5: Okay, excellent, thanks for that. And then maybe just one switching gears a bit to the CCS project, any update on the carbon insurance mechanism there. And I'm just curious like how you compare contrast.
Okay excellent. Thanks for that and then maybe just one switching gears a bit too.
Ccs project any any.
Any update on the <unk>.
Carbon assurance mechanism there I'm just curious like how do you compare and contrast.
Sandra Haskins: For 2026, the hedge volumes have gone up from 5500 to 7500 gigawatt hours. The weighted average hedge prices are mid-$70 per megawatt hour across all three years. The hedge positions include long-duration origination contracts as another mechanism to manage price risk. The graph on the left shows the relative magnitude of hedges that are long-duration. Our natural gas hedge volumes of 70,000 TJs for 2024 remains unchanged from 2022, while 2025 is slightly decreased from 60,000 TJs to 55,000 TJs.
Speaker 5: the CCS investment in Canada, as to the US, I know you've talked about it at MCV as well.
<unk> investment in Canada, as compared to the U S. I know you've talked about it at MTV as well.
Speaker 5: Is there some potential that you, if you couldn't get comfortable in the carbon insurance mechanism in Alberta, could you, could you instead change the focus 10 CV and have some kind of a CCS project there?
Is there is there some potential that you if you couldnt get comfortable on the carbon assurance mechanism in Alberta could you could you instead change the focus to MTBE and have some kind of a Ccs project there.
Speaker 3: Well, as we've previously announced, we are commencing studies in Michigan around the viability of CCS.
Well as we've previously announced we are commencing studies in Michigan around the viability of Ccs. So to answer the first part of your question in terms of update we have not advanced the commercial conversations today, we continue to have active conversations as we.
Speaker 3: So to answer the first part of your question, in terms of update, we have not advanced the commercial conversations today. We continue to have active conversations. You know, as we guided to last quarter, we wouldn't provide any additional updates until we had a material one. So to answer the first part of your question, we continue to have active conversations.
Two last quarter, we wouldnt provide any additional updates until we had a material one.
Speaker 3: We continue to be optimistic about getting to the finish line around.
We continue to be optimistic about getting to the finish line around the commercial agreement, whether it's the CCF D or some other commercial alternative but we have not advanced it to this point, where we could make an announcement but.
Speaker 3: the commercial agreement, whether it's a CCFD or some other commercial alternative, but we have not advanced it to this point where we could make an announcement. But, you know, I think from a viability of CCS, there will be places...
Sandra Haskins: As a result of some portfolio rebalancing activities to better tailor our hedges to our portfolio needs. In 2026, we have increased our natural gas hedging volume from 45,000 to 50,000 TJs. Natural gas volumes have been hedged at favorable prices compared to turn forward.
I think from a viability of Ccs there will be places in.
Speaker 3: In the US and in Canada, particularly Alberta, where we think it's viable and as we've mentioned before, we've got a shovel ready project. So the capture part of it. We feel quite comfortable now. It's just a question of reconciling the commercial aspects of it. And as you mentioned on the US side, you know, with the IRA and the 45 key.
In the U S and in Canada, particularly Alberta, where we think its viable.
As we've mentioned before we've got a near shovel ready projects. So the capture part of it we feel quite comfortable now. It's just a question of reconciling the commercial aspects of it and as you mentioned on the U S side with the IRA and the 45 Q.
Sandra Haskins: I'll conclude our remarks by reviewing our nine-month performance relative to our 2023 target. We continue to have high plant reliability and availability. Our average facility availability of 95% for the first nine months of the year, and we expect to finish the year at or slightly above our availability targets of 94%. Sustaining CAPEX was 99 million in the first nine months and is on track to meet our 2023 target of 135,245 million.
Speaker 3: and the intent is around the IRA. There's a clear formula there in terms of, you know, the capital support for it, around $85 a US pun. And in Canada, we continue to work with the federal government on meeting something that works for all parties. But, you know, like I said,
And the incentives around the IRA.
Clear formula there in terms of.
The capital support for it.
Around $85, a U S ton and in Canada, We continue to work with with the federal government on on.
Sandra Haskins: With respect to the financial performance targets of 1.455 billion to 1.51 billion, 1.515 billion in adjusted EBITDA and 805,865 million in AFSL based on the Alberta power forward prices heading into the quarter, our 2023 full-year financial results are trending to be below the midpoint of our guidance ranges for AFSL and adjusted EBITDA.
Meeting something that works for all parties, but like I said continue to be optimistic.
Speaker 3: Continue to be optimistic. We are in regular dialogue. We have lots of conversations and everyone is working towards.
Are in regular dialog, we have lots of conversations and everyone is working towards.
Speaker 10: a similar outcome, but no material update from last quarter. Appreciate the color. Thanks. I'll get back. Thank you.
Our outcome, but no material update from last quarter.
I appreciate the color thanks, I'll get back in the queue.
Thank you.
One moment for questions.
Our next question comes from Robert Hope with Scotiabank you May proceed.
Sandra Haskins: Lastly, I know many of you have been asking about our plans for investor day, and I'm excited to announce that we will be changing things up a bit this year by hosting the event here in Edmonton on May 7th and 8th, 2024. The experience will include a tour of the Genesee generating station and power project site. We will be releasing further details on the event along with 2024 guidance information later this year.
Speaker 3: Good morning, everyone. Once again, the Alberta Throne speech spoke about affordability of electricity rates.
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Once again, the Alberta throne speech spoke about affordability.
Electricity rates.
Speaker 3: You know, it added a little bit of commentary that it would be looking for actively to engage with industry regarding an outcome there. You know, the press conference that are after almost open the door for a capacity market in the region. So, you know, are you engaged with the government already? What type of changes do you think you could see in the Alberta market and would you be open to a capacity market?
It added a little bit of commentary that it would be looking proactively to engage with industry regarding an outcome there.
The press release or the press conference thereafter, almost open the door for.
Capacity market in the region so.
Avik Dey: With that, I'll now turn it back over to CAPEX. Thanks, Sandra.
Are you engaged with the government already what type of changes do you think you could see in the.
In the Alberta market and would you be open to a capacity market.
Unknown Executive: Josh, we are now ready to take questions. Thank you.
Speaker 3: We continue to be focused on the merits and effectiveness of the energy only market. We've been very engaged in the conversation.
Unknown Executive: We will now begin the Q&A question and answer session to join the question queue. You may press star 1-1 on your phone to raise your hand. We will pause for a moment as collars join the queue.
We.
We continue to be focused on the merits.
And effectiveness of the energy only market, we've been very engaged in the conversations.
Speaker 3: at a provincial level and with our counterparties and peers around what best serves the market and continue to believe the best solution for high prices is high prices as evidenced by the new capacity coming on stream in 2024.
At a provincial level and with our Counterparties and peers around what best serves the market.
And continue to believe the best solution for high prices is high prices.
As evidenced by the new capacity coming on stream in 2024. So we do think there are some critical short term issues that do need to be addressed around.
David Quezada: Now that you have a facility in the Pacific Northwest, you see that as another hub and you see sort of growth opportunities surrounding that and maybe on a related note. What kind of timeline would you be looking at for some of the other opportunities at that site that you mentioned? Thanks David for the question. So we we think the entire Western U.S, we've got our existing position in Desert Southwest at Arlington.
Speaker 3: So, you know, we do think there are some critical short-term issues that do need to be addressed around reliability. And we expect to see some tweaks to the existing systems to facilitate that. But the cornerstone of the energy-only market, we expect to be maintained.
Reliability, and we expect to see some tweaks to the existing system to facilitate that but the <unk>.
Cornerstone of the energy only market.
We expect to be maintained.
Speaker 3: whether there's other, you know, antilere service products that help support that reliability. I think, you know, we and other competitors as well as the regulatory bodies are all having those conversations. But I would say everything has been very, you know,
Whether there is other.
Hillary service products that help support that reliability, I think we and other competitors.
David Quezada: We've been active in that region from Desert Southwest all the way up through the Pacific Northwest historically at the company, whether it's through operating assets through, you know, the previous LP or just being an active participant on the trade. So we continue to see additional opportunities in the broader region and believe it'll be a core focus area for us in terms of other opportunities in and around the existing position. And we have active dialogue around other opportunities utilizing our existing acres, but they're all very early days, nothing that is I would call investible in the short term, but they're active conversations and more broadly we see opportunities as well, whether it's acquisition or partnering.
As as well as the regulatory bodies are all having those conversations but I would say everything has been very.
It's been an open dialogue and it's been a constructive dialogue to this point, but we continue to advocate for and expect to see the foundational elements of the energy only market maintained.
Speaker 3: It's been an open dialogue and it's been a constructive dialogue to this point, but we continue to advocate for and expect to see the foundational elements of the energy only market maintained.
Unknown Executive: Okay, excellent. Thanks for that.
Speaker 13: I appreciate that, Keller. And then maybe for Sandra, you touched on the kind of the moving parts in 2023 guidance in your prepared remarks. I was hoping you could dive a little deeper. You know, when we take a look at Q2, pricing was strong, ACO still remains weak. Can you maybe talk to in a little bit more detail what the key drivers are that could push results to the bottom end of the 2023 range?
I appreciate that color and then maybe for Sandra you touched on the kind of the moving parts in 2023 guidance in your prepared remarks, I was hoping you could dive a little deeper when we take a look at Q2 pricing was strong <unk> still remains weak can you maybe talk to in a little bit more detail.
What the key drivers are that could push results to the bottom end of the 2023 range.
Yes, so as you recall, we came out at Q2 with the expectation that based on forwards at that point in time that we would still be able to land.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so as you recall, we came out at Q2 with the expectation that based on forward at that point in time that we would still be able to land the year at above the midpoint. And so, you know, forward for the year, we're forecast to be around $175.
Avik Dey: And then maybe just one switching gears a bit to CCS project any any update on the carbon insurance mechanism there and I'm just curious like how how you compare contrast a CCS investment in Canada as compared to you as I know you've talked about it at MCV as well. Is there is there some potential that you if you couldn't get comfortable in the carbon insurance mechanism in Alberta, could you could you instead change the focus to MCV and have some kind of a CCS project there.
And the year it at above the midpoint and so forward through the year were forecast to be around $175 now looking at.
Speaker 4: Now looking at a forecast that's the $145 to $150. So you would have seen that in Q3 where we had all of the events that drove Q2 higher, whether it be the forest fires here in Alberta as well as...
Forecasted from the $1 45 to $150. So you would have seen that in Q3, where we had.
All of the events that drove Q2 higher whether it be the forced hires here in Alberta as well.
Speaker 4: warm temperature and supply constraints that push forward.
Warm temperature and supply constraints that push forward.
Avik Dey: Well, as we previously announced, we are commencing studies in Michigan around the viability of CCS so to answer the first part of your question in terms of update. We have not advanced the commercial conversations today, we continue to have active conversations, you know, as we guided to last quarter, we wouldn't provide any additional updates until we had a material one. We continue to be optimistic about getting to the finish line around the commercial agreement, whether it's the CCFD or some other commercial alternative, but we have not advanced it to this point where we could make an announcement.
Speaker 4: sort of resolved itself as we came through Q3 and saw very mild weather.
Sort of resolved itself.
As we came through Q3 very mild.
Mild weather strong supply and that brought the forwards down that.
Speaker 4: strong supply and that brought the forwards down that, you know, call it 25 to $30 a megawatt hour. So based on the absence of that volatility, which creates the incremental upside for our assets.
Our 25% to $30 a megawatt hour so based on on the absence of that volatility, which creates the incremental upside for assets you.
Speaker 4: you would see that sort of pull back in our forecast. So I would caveat that with the fact that, you know, we still expect that some prices can move around a fair bit, given, you know, we are just entering the winter season and starting to get some colder weather here. So it is, once again, weather dependent in terms of where those forwards blend, but when you use the curve that is out there today, that's
You would see that sort of pullback in our forecast so I would caveat that with the fact that we still expect that prices can move around a fair bit given where.
Or just entering the winter season, and starting to get some colder weather here. So it is once again weather dependent in terms of where those forward Glenn but when you use the curve that is out there today that.
Avik Dey: But, you know, I think from a viability of CCS there will be places in the US and in Canada, particularly Alberta, where we think it's viable. And as we've mentioned before we've got a near shovel ready project so the capture part of it we feel quite comfortable now it's just a question of reconciling the commercial aspects of it. And as you mentioned on the US side, you know, with the IRA and the 45 Q and the intent is around the IRA, you know, there's a clear formula there in terms of, you know, the capital support for it around $85 a US pun.
Speaker 4: That's what's driving it down. So nothing on performance of the assets with respect to the entire fleet. Still, it's continuing that to be strong, but just the range of potential outcomes, given where we are in the markets pricing today just creates that amount of swing that can easily reverse, shouldn't we see further changes in that forward price curve?
That's what's driving it down to nothing on performance of the assets with respect to the entire fleet continuing that to be strong, but just the range of potential outcomes given.
Where we are in the market pricing today.
That amount of swing.
Easily reverse should we see further through the changes in that.
Kurt.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Avik Dey: And in Canada, we continue to work with the federal government on meeting something that works for all parties, but, you know, like I said, continue to be optimistic, we are in regular dialogue, we have lots of conversations and, you know, everyone is working towards a similar outcome, but no material update from last quarter.
One moment for questions.
Speaker 1: Our next question comes from Maurice Choi with RBC Capital Market, CME Proceed.
Our next question comes from Maurice Choy with RBC capital markets. You May proceed.
Speaker 6: Thank you and good morning. If I could start with the proposed federal CER. I know you've remarked in your report that all your assets will qualify as existing assets under the draft proposals. What do you think the 30 tons per kilowatt hour threshold may mean for the longevity of your Geneseo Power Project and also the technical specifications of your proposed CCES project?
Thank you and good morning.
Let's start with the proposed federal CR I know.
Thank you for Marsh in your reports that all of your assets will qualify.
<unk> assets under the draft proposals.
Unknown Executive: I appreciate the color.
What do you think.
Unknown Executive: Thanks.
Unknown Executive: I'll get back.
Unknown Executive: Thank you.
<unk> tons per kilowatt hour stressful.
Unknown Executive: One moment for questions.
For the longevity of your Genesee Repower project and also the technical specifications of your proposed project.
Robert Hope: Our next question comes from Robert Hope with Scotiabank. You may proceed.
Speaker 3: So, I think stepping back on the CER, as you may have noted, you know, we've been fairly active publicly and privately in terms of advocacy in and around the CER, and we continue to believe that the framework for the CER is workable with specific tweets.
So I think stepping back on the CER.
Unknown Executive: Good morning, everyone. Once again, the Alberta Throne speech spoke about affordability of electricity rates. You know, it added a little bit of commentary that it would be looking for actively to engage with its industry regarding an outcome there. You know, the press conference that are after almost open the door for a capacity market in the region. So, you know, are you engaged with the government already? What type of changes do you think you could see in the Alberta market?
As you May have noted we've been fairly active publicly and privately in terms of advocacy in and around the CER.
And we continue to believe that the framework for the CER is workable with specific tweaks.
Speaker 3: in particular in Alberta given our existing reliance on thermal generation for base load dispatchable.
In particular in Alberta, given our existing reliance on thermal generation for Baseload. The statue ball so without commenting on the specifics of the legislation as they're currently stated as you know comments are due tomorrow and we're going into the next phase.
Speaker 3: So without commenting on the specifics of the legislation as they are currently stated, as you know, comments are due tomorrow, and we're going into the next phase. We've had very constructive conversations with both sides.
Unknown Executive: And would you be open to a capacity market? We continue to be focused on the merits and effectiveness of the energy only market. We've been very engaged in the conversations at a provincial level and with our counter parties and peers around what best serves the market and continue to believe the best solution for high prices is high prices as evidence by the new capacity coming on stream in 2024. So, you know, we do think there are some critical short-term issues that do need to be addressed around reliability.
Unknown Executive: And we expect to see some tweaks to the existing systems that facilitate that, but the cornerstone of the energy only market we expect to be maintained. Whether there's other, you know, ancillary service products that help support that reliability. I think, you know, we and other competitors as well as the regulatory bodies are all having those conversations, but I would say everything has been very, you know, it's been an open dialogue and it's been a constructive dialogue to this point. But, you know, we continue to advocate for and expect to see the foundational elements of the energy only market maintained.
We've had very constructive conversations with with both sides.
Speaker 3: of the conversation whether it's with the federal ministries involved or you know provincial the provincial ministries on this front and we expect to we those construct those conversations have been constructive around whether it's the end of prescribed life whether it's the use of peak capacity whether it's you know the conversation around use of offset
Of the conversation whether it's with.
The federal ministries involved or provincial.
The provincial ministries on this front and we expect to weave those construction those conversations have been constructive around whether it's the end of prescribed life, whether it's the use of.
Pick your capacity.
Whether it's.
The conversation around use of offsets.
Speaker 3: So we expect some of those changes to get reflected as the conversations have indicated that, you know,
So we expect some of those changes to get reflected as.
The conversations have.
<unk> indicated that.
Speaker 3: There are different one solution doesn't fit all. So for places like Alberta in particular and Ontario in their use of peakers, we expect some of those accommodations to be met.
There are different one solution doesn't fit all.
So for places like Alberta in particular, and Ontario in their use of <unk>, we expect some of those accommodations to me Matt.
Speaker 6: and just to fall upon that enemy thoughts on the CCS side of things besides the speakers and the 20-year.
And just to follow up on that.
Any thoughts on the Ccs side of things Besides the peak years.
<unk>.
And the 'twenty year.
Well, if you see gcs I think it all it's funny you can't you can't answer one question without the other so the CER framework establishes the base load.
Speaker 3: Well, the TCS, I think it all, you know, it's funny, you can't.
Speaker 3: You can't answer one question without the other, so the CER framework establishes the baseload and on CCS in particular, it's just a question of.
Sandra Haskins: I appreciate that color. And then maybe for Sandra, you touched on the kind of the moving parts in 2023 guidance in your program marks. I was hoping you could dive a little deeper, you know, when we take a look at Q2 pricing was strong, ACO still remains weak. You may be talked to in a little bit more detail what the key drivers are that could push results to the bottom end of the 2023 range.
And on Ccs in particular, its just a question of.
Speaker 3: What level of greenhouse gas intensity can you actually achieve?
What what what level of greenhouse gas intensity can you actually achieve through thermal asset. So we expect that that percentage compliance.
Speaker 3: through a thermal asset. So we expect that that percentage compliance.
Speaker 3: needs to be more akin to where the technology is today.
Needs to be more akin to where the technology is today.
Sandra Haskins: Yeah, so as you recall, we came out at Q2 with the expectation that based on forward at that point in time that we would still be able to land the year at above the midpoint. And so, you know, forward for the year were forecast to be around $175. Now, looking at a forecast that's the $145 to $150. So, you would have seen that in Q3 where we had all of the events that drove Q2 higher, whether it be the forest fires here in Alberta as well as warm temperature and supply constraints that push forward sort of resolved itself in as we came through Q3 and saw very mild, mild weather strong supply.
Speaker 3: So, you know, that percentage rate, you know, we think should come down.
So that percentage rate, we think should come down.
Speaker 3: can't comment on the exact percentage right now because it also depends on you know what the use of offsets are where we land on end of prescribed life. There's not any one provision that in itself is a silver bullet. You've got to take all of those provisions in context and then determine where to come out. So CCS is so intrinsically tied into the CERB, the other provisions of CERB, you know we wouldn't... we wouldn't...
Can't comment on the exact percentage right now because it also depends on what the use of offsets are where we land on end of prescribed life. There is not any one provision that in itself is a silver bullet you've got to take all of those provisions in context, and then determine where to come out. So ccs is so intrinsically.
Tied into the CER other the other provisions of C. D R.
Wouldn't we wouldn't we wouldn't advocate for one specific number having said that at Genesee Ccs, we still see the viability of that project in the context of.
Speaker 3: we wouldn't advocate for one specific number. Having said that, at GenSC CCS.
Speaker 3: We still see the viability of that project in the context of CER legislation. We still see the viability of that project in the context of CER legislation.
The CER legislation moving through.
Sandra Haskins: And that brought the forwards down that, you know, call it 25 to $30 a megawatt hour. So, based on on the absence of that volatility, which creates the incremental upside for our assets, you would see that sort of pull back in our forecast. So, I would caveat that with the fact that, you know, we still expect that some prices can move around a fair bit, given, you know, we are just entering the winter season and starting to get some some colder weather here.
Speaker 3: But it cannot without some of the tweaks that we've already publicly
It cannot without some of the tweaks that we've already publicly discussed.
Speaker 6: So I guess if you put aside the carbon insurance mechanism and just think about policy background for the CES, and I think you mentioned that the final C or might come in mid-2024, should we then assume that the CES project is at least pushed to the end of 2024 in terms of position?
So I guess, if you put aside the carbon assurance mechanism.
Just think about the policy background, Florida, Ccs and I think you mentioned that the final C might come in mid 2010 for should we then assume that the Ccs project.
Sally.
Pushed to the end of 2024 in terms of physician.
Sandra Haskins: So, it is once again weather dependent in terms of where those forwards land, but when you use the curve that is out there today, that's what's driving it down. So, nothing on performance of the assets with respect to the entire fleet. Still, it's continuing that to be strong, but just the range of potential outcomes, given where we are in the markets pricing today, just creates that amount of swing that can easily reverse. Should we see further, further changes in that forward price curve?
Speaker 3: I can't make that assertion. You know, we came out with our guidance in the summer, which was we're near shovel ready on the technical aspect, and we need to drive to a finish line on the commercial side. We have not had anyone on the federal side step back.
I can't make that assertion.
We came out with our guidance in the summer, which was where near shovel ready on the technical aspect and we need to drive to a finish line on the commercial side, we have not had any one on the federal side step back because of CER on the engagement on the commercial side, we can.
Unknown Executive: Thank you. One moment for questions.
Speaker 3: because of CER on the engagement on the commercial side. We continue to have conversations.
To have conversations.
Speaker 3: My colleagues and I were just in auto a few weeks ago progressing these conversations. We have more discussions upcoming not one of those discussions have been tied directly to CER. It's more been tied to, you know, how do we, how do we figure out CCSD or the alternative? And, you know, how does it, how do we actually, you know, put a shovel in the ground and get the project up and running?
My colleagues and I were just in Ottawa few weeks ago progressing. These conversations we have more discussions upcoming not one of those discussions have been tied directly to CER morven tied to how do we how.
How do we figure out CCF D or the alternative.
Maurice Choy: Our next question comes from Maurice Choy with RBC Capital Markets, he may proceed. Thank you and good morning.
And how does it how do we actually put a shovel in the ground and get the project up and running.
Avik Dey: If I could start with the proposed Federal CR. I know you from Martin, your report that all your assets will qualify as existing assets under the draft proposals. What do you think the 30 tons per hour threshold may mean for the longevity of your genesis of our project and also the technical specifications of your proposed CCS project? So I think stepping back on the CER, as you may have noted, that we've been fairly active publicly and privately in terms of advocacy in and around the CER, and we continue to believe that the framework for the CER is workable with specific tweaks in particular in Alberta, given our existing reliance on thermal generation for base load dispatchable.
Alright understood.
Speaker 6: If I could just finish off with a question to you on strategy. Obviously, it seems like you're signaling that the midlife natural gas strategy will continue with the FedEx and the acquisition. And today we see a change in your executive team. You're coming up to six months with your ship here. And I'm wondering where you see the company's strategy today. How the executive team will help accelerate any part of that strategy. And if there are any areas you want to focus a little bit more time in the future.
If I can just finish off with a question to you on strategy.
And obviously it seems like you're signaling that the mid life natural gas strategy will continue with the Fedex acquisition and today, we see a change in your executive team.
Youre coming up to six months with your CEO ship here.
I'm wondering where you see the company strategy today.
The executive team will help accelerate any part of that strategy and if there are any.
Areas, you want to focus a little bit more time in the near term.
Speaker 3: I think, you know, as we look forward, I'm incredibly excited about the executive team we've assembled. It's come together. The full team is in place.
I think as we look forward I'm incredibly excited about the executive team we've assembled.
It's come together the full team is in place and importantly, we've divided the organization into corporate services asset management asset management being engineering construction and operations and then commercial focus over the coming months is to coordinate our commercial effort.
Speaker 3: And importantly, we've divided the organization into corporate services, asset management, asset management being engineering construction operations and then commercial. The focus over the coming months is to coordinate our commercial effort across our existing businesses.
Avik Dey: So without commenting on the specifics of the legislation as they are currently stated, you know, as you know, comments are due tomorrow, and we're going into the next phase. We've had very constructive conversations with both sides of the conversation, whether it's with the Federal Ministries involved or provincial ministries on this front and we expect to, those conversations have been constructive around whether it's the end of prescribed life, whether it's the use of a peaker capacity, whether it's, you know, the conversation around use of offsets.
Across our existing businesses, so as you've heard us say, whether its I had the investor presentations or through the last couple of quarters, we have a core competency around managing dispatch a bowl baseload power generation that utility scale that today for the most part is thermal.
Speaker 3: So as you've heard us say whether it's at investor presentations or through the last couple of quarters.
Speaker 3: We have a core competency around managing the spatula, baseload power generation, that's utility scale. That today for the most part is thermal generation, gas fire generation.
<unk> gas fire generation.
Speaker 3: We believe firmly that any part of achieving that zero in the markets we focus in.
We believe firmly that any.
Of achieving net zero in the markets, we focus in needs companies to focus on that reliability first.
Speaker 3: companies to focus on that reliability first. And we also see that as the entry point and catalyst for building decarbonization strategy.
And we also see that as the entry point and catalysts for building de carbonization strategies. If we are an incumbent in an existing electricity market with existing interconnects.
Avik Dey: So we expect some of those changes to get reflected as the conversations have indicated that, you know, there are different one solution doesn't fit all. So for places like Alberta in particular and Ontario in their use of peakers, we expect some of those accommodations to be met.
Speaker 3: If we're an incumbent in an existing electricity market with existing interconnects.
Speaker 3: and incumbency around trading and working with, you know, wholesale customers, we think we're best positioned to grow decarbonization solutions.
And incumbency around trading and working with.
Wholesale customers, we think we're best positioned to grow de carbonization solutions. So the three pronged strategy that we have historically employed around mid merit gas renewable and de Carbonization solutions.
Speaker 3: So the three-pronged strategy that we have historically employed around mid-merit gas, renewable and decarbonization solutions.
Avik Dey: And just to follow up on that, any thoughts on the CER side of things besides the peakers and the 20 year? Well, the CER, I think it all, you know, it's funny, you can't answer one question without the other. So the CER framework establishes the base load and on CCS in particular, it's just a question of what, you know, what level of greenhouse gas intensity can you actually achieve through a thermal asset?
Speaker 3: You can expect an evolution of that.
You can expect an evolution of that.
Speaker 3: to focus more clearly on what our core markets are and how we build net zero pathways in those markets.
To focus more clearly on what our core markets are and how we build net zero pathways in those markets.
Speaker 3: with increasing flexibility, but the notion of anchoring around mid-merit natural gas assets is absolutely on point.
With increasing flexibility, but the notion of anchoring around mid merit natural gas asset is absolutely on point.
Speaker 3: and you'll see more clarity around which markets we like, why we like them, and how we intend to grow in them.
And you will you.
Youll see more clarity around which markets, we like why we like them and how we intend to grow in them.
Speaker 3: And I think the team because of our focus now between corporate services, asset management, which is primarily focused on building and running our assets optimally. And then the clarity around our commercial vision, you know, I think you'll see.
And I think the team because of our focus now between corporate services asset management, which is primarily focused on building and running our assets optimally.
Avik Dey: So we expect that that percentage compliance needs to be more akin to where the technology is today. So, you know, that percentage rate, you know, we think should come down, can't comment on the exact percentage right now because it also depends on, you know, what the use of offsets are where we land on end of prescribed life. There's not any one provision that in itself is a silver bullet. You've got to take all of those provisions in context and then determine where to come out.
And then the clarity around our commercial vision.
Youll see.
Speaker 3: us do more in that regard and provide, you know, more clarity around what those core markets are, which we've already talked about.
US do more in that regard.
And provide.
More clarity around what those core markets are which we've already talked about.
Speaker 3: You know, Alberta, Ontario, Miso, Desert Southwest now, you know, as I answered David's question around.
Alberta, Ontario, MISO Desert southwest now.
I answered David's question around Frederickson, one we see a growing opportunity in the western U S as well, which we've talked about in the past also.
Speaker 7: Fredrickson won. You know we see a growing opportunity in the Western US as well which we've talked about in the past also.
Avik Dey: So CCS is so intrinsically tied into the CER, the other provisions of CER, you know, we wouldn't, we wouldn't, we wouldn't advocate for one specific number. Having said that, at GenSCCCS, we still see the viability of that project in the context of CER legislation moving through. But it cannot without some of the tweaks that we've already publicly discussed.
That's great. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
One moment for questions.
Speaker 1: Our next question comes from Mark Jarvy with CIBC, He may proceed.
Our next question comes from Mark Jarvi with CIBC you May proceed.
Speaker 8: Hi, good morning. Coming back to the Fredrickton transaction, obviously the valuation looks pretty attractive. Just wondering how you weigh a decision to move forward on an investment versus capital availability liquidity, you know, sending change in terms of how you're seeing what deploying capital given, you know, cost the capital a bit higher today, maybe a little tighter on internal funding, sort of updated views on willingness on what deals to do right now.
Hi, good morning.
Coming back to the Fredriksen transaction, obviously, the valuation looks pretty attractive.
Wondering how you weigh the decision to move forward on our investment versus capital availability liquidity does anything change in terms of how youre thinking with deploying capital given cost of capital is a bit higher today, maybe a little tighter on internal funding sort of updated views on just your willingness on what deal city right now.
Avik Dey: So I guess if you put aside the carbon insurance mechanism and just think about the policy background for the CES and I think you mentioned that the final CER might come in mid-2024 should we then assume that the CES project is at least push to the end of 2024 in terms of position? We have already on the technical aspect and we need to drive to a finish line on the commercial side.
Speaker 3: Sure, maybe I'll start and Sandra can follow. You know, I think this company over a long period of time has had a core focus around balance sheet discipline as a governor to how we look at acquisitions or growth opportunities. I think that'll continue to be the case. I think where we are right now, this organization has also been really good at having conviction around.
Sure, maybe I'll start and Sandra can follow I think this company over a long period of time has had a core focus around balance sheet discipline as a governor to how we look at acquisitions or growth opportunities I think that will continue.
Avik Dey: We have not had anyone on the federal side step back because of CER on the engagement on the commercial side. We continue to have conversations. My colleagues and I were just in auto a few weeks ago, progressing these conversations. We have more discussions upcoming, not one of those discussions have been tied directly to CER. It's more been tied to, you know, how do we, how do we figure out CCFD or the alternative and, you know, how does it, how do we actually, you know, put a shovel in the ground and get the project up and running? Understood.
To be the case.
Where we are right now this organization has also been really good at having conviction around which markets offer us opportunity from a generation perspective in particular on identifying assets. We think we can contract or capture value that the broader.
Speaker 3: which markets offer us opportunity from a generation perspective, in particular on identifying assets we think we can contract or capture value that the broader market doesn't see.
Market doesn't see so to the extent that we can do it while maintaining our balance sheet strength and.
Speaker 3: So to the extent that we can do it while maintaining our balance sheet strength.
Speaker 3: and doing it accretively, we'll continue to look at those opportunities that fit within our balance sheet capacity.
And doing it Accretively, we'll continue to look at those opportunities that fit within our balance sheet capacity. We don't expect that to change I think we do expect to be more creative around how we solicit partners in a broader universe of partners. So that we can do things that are larger but.
Speaker 3: We don't expect that to change. I think we do expect to be more creative around how we solicit partners and a broader universe of partners.
Avik Dey: If I could just finish off with a question to you on strategy. Obviously it seems like you're signaling that the mid-life natural gas strategy will continue with the FedEx in that position and today we see a change in your executive team. You're coming up to six months with CER, your ship here. And I'm wondering where you see the company strategy today, how the executive team will help accelerate any part of that strategy.
Speaker 3: so that we can do things that are larger, but I would expect us to do more and be consistent with that approach.
I would expect us to do more and be consistent with that approach Sandra do you want to add anything to that yes, I think you pretty much covered and I would say when we're looking at something like this trend with snacks acquisition, we do factor in what the current cost of our funding our when we were making that decision. So we haven't found that.
Speaker 4: Sandra, do you want to add anything to that? Yeah, I think you're pretty much covered. I would say when we're looking at something like the frog looks like, that position we do factor in what the current cost of funding are when we're making that decision. So we haven't found that we're in a position where we're unable to move forward with the right at positions at this point in time.
Avik Dey: And if there are any areas you want to focus a little bit more on time in the near term. I think, you know, as we look forward, I'm incredibly excited about the executive team we've assembled. It's come together, the full team is in place. And importantly, we've divided the organization into corporate services, asset management, asset management being engineering construction operations and then commercial. The focus over the coming months is to coordinate our commercial effort across our existing businesses.
In a position where we're unable to move forward with with the right. The right acquisitions at this point in time.
Speaker 8: I mean, Sandra, can you comment in terms of where you sit overall and capital availability, liquidity, post-Frederick's in, if you had more investments to come up, how much can you internally finance? What sort of comes a limiter in terms of, I guess, internally available cash flow and voluntary capacity relative to maybe external equity needs?
And then Sundar could you comment in terms of where you sit overall and just capital availability liquidity.
Post Frederickson, if you had more investments to come up how much can you internally finance, what sort of becomes a limiter in terms of I guess internally available cash flow and balance sheet capacity relative to maybe external equity needs.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so when you look at what we've got committed at this point in time, there's no need for incremental equity. As you recall, we turned on the drip last quarter and we see that that provides a 60 required equity cushion that we need and would find other forms of financing in the terms of various forms of debt. Okay guys. Let's get started. So, housing resources.
So when you look at what we've.
Got committed at this point in time, there is no need for incremental equity as you recall, we turned on the drip.
Avik Dey: So as you've heard us say whether it's at investor presentations or through the last couple of quarters, we have a core competency around managing dispatchable base load power generation that's utility scale. So that today for the most part is thermal generation, gas fire generation. We believe firmly that any part of achieving that zero in the markets we focus in needs companies to focus on that reliability first. And we also see that as the entry point and catalyst for building decarbonization strategies.
Quarter, and we see that that provides us.
The required equity cushion that we need and would find other forms of financing in terms of various forms of debt. So.
Speaker 4: Looking at our FFO to debt metric, it's very unconstrained in this year and when we're looking at next year, we still are, you know, remaining that investment grade credit rating even with the incremental financing for the new project, so it's fine that we've got the liquidity to do.
Looking at our <unk> to debt metric.
Very unconstrained in this year and when we're looking at next year, we still are.
Meaning that investment grade credit rating, even with incremental.
Nancy for further new projects, who find that we've got the liquidity to do.
Speaker 4: what's in the hopper and even after we did that, that map, we were still able to bring further.
What's in the Hopper and even after we did that that math, we were still able to bring Frederick hendrickson.
Avik Dey: If we're an incumbent in an existing electricity market with existing interconnects and incumbent the around trading and working with, you know, wholesale customers. We think we're best positions to grow decarbonization solutions. So the three pronged strategy that we have historically employed around mid merit gas, renewable and decarbonization solutions. You can expect an evolution of that to focus more clearly on what our core markets are and how we build net zero pathways in those markets with increasing flexibility.
Speaker 4: Fredrickson into the fold without having to raise equity on the back of that transaction.
Into into the fold without having to raise equity on the master bathroom adoption.
You still have capacity and particularly incremental development capacity as you look at the build.
Speaker 4: still have capacity and particularly incremental development capacity as you look at the build spend profiles that we continue to look at opportunities there as well as other acquisitions. So depending on where we're successful we'll drive the financing needs go forward but at this point we're well situated.
<unk> profile.
We continue to look at opportunities there as well as other acquisitions, so depending on where we're successful.
Drive the financing needs go forward, but at this point.
Well situated.
Speaker 8: Can you quantify the capacity you have right now for incremental investment?
Can you quantify sort of the capacity you have right now for incremental investments.
Avik Dey: But the notion of anchoring around mid merit natural gas assets is absolutely on point and you'll, you'll, you'll see more clarity around which markets we like why we like them and how we intend to grow in them. And I think the team because of our focus now between corporate services asset management, which is primarily focused on building and running our assets optimally. And then the clarity around our commercial vision, you know, I think you'll see us do more in that regard and provide more clarity around what those core markets are, which we've already talked about. Alberta, Ontario, MISO, Desert Southwest now, you know, as I answered David's question around Fredrickson one, you know, we see a growing opportunity in the Western US as well, which we've talked about in the past also.
Speaker 4: It would really depend on the timing of it and how creative that investment was.
It would really depend on the timing of it and whatnot.
Accretive investment.
Speaker 8: All right, and then just coming back to the question around the thrown speech and some of the comments from Pimera Smith and then, Avek, your comments about energy only seemed like the right fit. You believe for yourselves and the market Alberta. So what would you see as sort of options, not capacity options, but another thing is to address reliability. You could see coming to market. And do you think there'd be anything they would do in terms of changing the bidding scheme in the market in terms of block bidding or anything like that?
Okay.
Exact numbers.
Alright, and then just coming back to the question around the throne speech and some of the comments from from Premier Smith, and then back to your comments about energy only it seems like the rigs hit you believe for yourselves and the market in Alberta, So what would you see as sort of options.
Unknown Executive: Thank you very much. Thank you. One moment for questions.
Not capacity options, but no other things to address reliability, you could see coming in the market and do you think there would be anything that you would do in terms of changing the bidding scheme in the market in terms of block bidding or anything like that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's early days to discuss specifics around, you know, well bidding or how the fundamental market structure works. I think what our expectation is at the moment is to really address some of the interconnect and congestion issues, which you could assume to be through some sort of ancillary service changes or products.
Yes, I think I think it's early days to discuss specifics around.
We'll bidding or how the fundamental market structure works I think what our expectation is at the moment is to really address some of the interconnect and congestion issues, which you could assume to be through some sort of ancillary service change.
Changes or products that would come to bear in the market that don't exist today.
Mark Jarvi: My next question comes from Mark Jarvi with CIBC, QA Proceed.
Speaker 3: that would come to bear in the market that don't exist today. In terms of the fundamentals of energy only and seeing changes in how bidding strategy comes, I don't foresee that at the moment. I think as the throne speech indicated,
Avik Dey: Hi, good morning. Coming back to the Fredrick's and Transaction, obviously the valuation looks pretty attractive. Just wondering how you weigh a decision to move forward on investment versus capital availability, liquidity, and then change in terms of how you're seeing what deploying capital given, you know, cost of capital is a bit higher today, maybe a little tighter on internal funding, sort of updated views on what deals to do right now. Sure, maybe I'll start in Sandra can follow, you know, I think this company over a long period of time has had a core focus around balance sheet discipline as a governor to how we look at acquisitions or growth opportunities.
In terms of the.
The fundamentals of energy only in and seeing changes in how bidding strategy funds.
We don't foresee that at the moment I think.
As the throne speech indicated.
Speaker 3: The primary driver around that is...
The primary driver around that is.
Speaker 3: you know, ensuring long-term decarbonization, new capacity, and addressing some of the short-term reliability.
Ensuring long term de carbonization, new capacity in addressing some of the short term reliability issues.
Speaker 3: whether that reflects broader changes and on the affordability piece, it's really around regulated rate options for consumers.
Other that.
Reflects broader changes on the on the reliance on the affordability piece, it's really around regulated rate.
<unk> for consumers. So I think there is an open ended question there around what impact that would have directly on generation.
Speaker 3: So, you know, I think there's an open-ended question there around, you know, what impact that would have directly on generation.
Avik Dey: I think that'll continue to be the case. I think where we are right now, this organization has also been really good at having conviction around which markets offer us opportunity from a generation perspective in particular on identifying assets we think we can contract or capture value that the broader market doesn't see. So to the extent that we can do it while maintaining our balance sheet strength and doing it creatively will continue to look at those opportunities that fit within our balance sheet capacity.
Speaker 8: Okay, the last one for me, just to run the CER and East Windsor, the date of January 1st for the new capacity coming in, is that something you'll be advocating to maybe address that, maybe push that out a little bit in terms of how you think East Windsor expansion might fit with the current rules under the draft legislation?
Okay and last one for me just around the CR in East Windsor and the date of January 1st for for the new capacity coming in is that something you'll be advocating to maybe address that maybe pushed that out a little bit in terms of how you think east Windsor expansion might fit with the current rules under the draft legislation.
I think I would go back to my previous re.
Speaker 3: I think I would go back to my previous response on CER. Comments are due for draft one tomorrow. We've been in active dialogue on that from a federal perspective, but also from a Ontario Alberta, British Columbia perspective, given that's where we have existing fleet. And we expect constructive feedback as we move towards the next phase of the legislation.
Bonds on CER.
Comments are due for dropped one tomorrow, we've been in active dialog on that from.
From a federal perspective, but also from a Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia perspective, given Thats, where we have existing fleet.
Avik Dey: We don't expect that to change. I think we do expect to be more creative around how we solicit partners and a broader universe of partners so that we can do things that are larger. But, you know, I would expect us to do more and be consistent with that approach. Sandra, do you want to add anything to that? Yeah, I think you pretty much covered it. I would say when we're looking at something like this, that position we do factor in what the current cost of funding are when we're when we're making that decision.
And we expect constructive feedback.
As we move towards the next phase of the legislation.
Understood. Okay. Thanks for the time today.
Yes.
Speaker 14: Thank you.
Thank you.
One moment for questions.
Our next question comes from John Mould with TTC.
Speaker 1: Our next question comes from John Mold with key security, Z-May Proceed.
TD Securities you May proceed.
Avik Dey: So, we haven't found that we're in a position where we're unable to move forward with the right, the right acquisition at this point in time. And then Sandra, can you comment in terms of where you sit overall and just capital availability, liquidity, you know, post-Frederick's in if you had more investments to come up, how much can you internally finance? What sort of becomes a limiter in terms of I guess internally available cash flow and balance sheet capacity relative to maybe external equity needs?
Speaker 10: Okay, thanks. Good morning, everybody. Me just going back to the market structure question and you know, very much appreciated the early days for all this, but so I'm wondering if you have an expectation just around the timing of this process and just thinking back to the capacity market. That was a pretty detailed stakeholder process of the A.C.O. LAN.
Okay. Thanks, Good morning, everybody, maybe just going back to the market structure question.
Very much appreciate it's early days for all of this but I was wondering if you have an expectation just around the timing of this process I'm just thinking back to the capacity market that was a pretty detailed stakeholder process at the Asa will land.
Speaker 10: You know, government proposals do include some more fundamental market structure changes, whether there's a capacity market, whether there's mandatory energy-forward contracting. And does that create market structure uncertainty that makes it tougher to make an FID on products and Alberta?
Government proposals do include some more fundamental market structure changes, whether there is a capacity market whether there is mandatory.
Avik Dey: Yeah, so when you look at what we've got committed at this point in time, there's no need for incremental equity. As you recall, we turned on the drip last quarter and we see that that provides us the required equity question that we need and would find other forms of financing in the terms of various forms of debt. So, looking at our FFO to debt metric, it's very unconstrained in this year and when we're looking at next year, we still are, you know, remaining that investment grade credit rating even with the incremental financing for the new project.
Energy forward contracting and does that create market structure uncertainty that makes it tougher.
To make an RFID on on projects in Alberta.
Appreciate your thoughts there.
Speaker 3: I think without commenting specifically on Alberta, investors are always looking for certainty to make capital allocation decisions.
I think without commenting specifically on Alberta investors are always looking for certainty to make capital allocation decisions.
We're no different.
Speaker 3: And so the clarity provided by the IRA in the US to encourage capital investment is something we can look to to set a benchmark for making those long-term capital decisions.
And so the clarity provided by <unk> in the U S to encourage capital investment is something we can look to to set a benchmark for making those long term capital decisions. So I think we understand and agree with that there needs to be.
Avik Dey: So, finally, we've got the liquidity to do what's in the hopper and even after we did that map, we were still able to bring Fredrickson into the fold without having to raise equity on the back of our transaction. So, still have capacity and particularly incremental development capacity as you look at the build and profiles that we continue to look at opportunities there as well as other acquisitions. So, depending on where we're successful, we'll drive the financing needs to go forward but at this point we're well situated.
Speaker 3: So I think we understand and agree with that there needs to be some tweaks to the system in Alberta to accommodate, you know, congestion and the changing supply mix, but from a capital allocation perspective, we need certain.
Some tweaks to the system in Alberta to accommodate <unk>.
Congestion and the changing supply mix.
From a capital allocation perspective, we need certainty.
Speaker 3: So we're in a different position than a newcomer given our incumbency in Alberta and leadership position in Alberta. So on balance, we may be willing to take risks that a newcomer won't, but you cannot under appreciate the value of certain.
So we're in a different position than a newcomer given our incumbency in Alberta and leadership position in Alberta.
So on balance we may be willing to take risks that a newcomer won't but you cannot under appreciate the value of certainty for making those decisions and I think we look at that we look at that investment decision in Alberta the same.
Speaker 3: to making those decisions. And I think we look at that investment decision in Alberta the same as we would in Washington for Fredrickson or Michigan for MTV or Ontario for our growth projects. So we take all of that into account as we make those capital allocation decisions.
Avik Dey: David, can you quantify sort of the capacity you have right now for incremental investments? It would really depend on the timing of it and how accrued that investment was. Okay. Give it an exact number of points. All right.
As we would in Washington for Frederickson or Michigan for MTV.
Or Ontario for growth projects. So we take all of that into account as we make those capital allocation decisions.
Avik Dey: And then just coming back to the question around the thrown speech and some of the comments from Premier Smith and then Avik, your comments about energy only seem like the right fit. But you believe for yourselves in the market in Alberta. So what would you see as sort of options, not capacity options, but another thing to address reliability, you could see coming in the market. And do you think there'd be anything they would do in terms of changing the bidding scheme in the market in terms of block bidding or anything like that?
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's the great context. And then maybe just one on building regional scale, you're gonna see some real scale in Ontario once you've got it already, but even more so with your next set of growth projects coming online. And you've got core gas assets now in a number of, say, US kind of regional markets. And I'm wondering at this point, there's a market in the US where you're seeing potential to gradually build something like your Ontario project.
Okay.
Great context, and then maybe just one on building regional scale youre going to see some real scale.
Ontario one's here.
You got it already but even more so with your next set of growth projects coming online.
<unk> got core gas assets now in a number of of let's say U S regional markets and I'm wondering if at this point there is a market in the U S, where you're seeing potential to gradually build something like your Ontario projects.
Avik Dey: Yeah, I think I think it's early days to discuss specifics around, you know, well bidding or how the fundamental market structure works. I think what our expectation is at the moment is to really address some of the interconnect and congestion issues, which you could assume to be through some sort of ancillary service. Changes or products that would come to bear in the market that don't exist today. In terms of the, you know, the fundamentals of energy only in and seeing changes in how bidding strategy comes, I don't we don't foresee that at the moment.
Like your platform in Ontario.
Speaker 3: I think we do and I think...
I think we do.
Thank.
Speaker 3: We've talked about this previously as well, but I think in my
Yes.
We've talked about this previously as well but.
I think in MISO.
Speaker 3: Western U.S. and Ontario, we see similar situations that not only can we acquire critical natural gas assets, but we can build decarbonization solutions around that, given the incumbent positions there. So whether it's because we've got existing assets, interconnections, relationships, building out
Western U S and Ontario, we see similar situations that not only can we acquire critical natural gas asset we can build de carbonization solutions around that given the incumbent positions. There so whether it's because we've got.
Existing assets interconnections relationships building building out storage solutions renewables capacity or even looking at things like Ccs, what we've seen in Alberta, and we've we've been in valve the great privilege of being a leader in the Alberta market is that income.
Avik Dey: And I think, you know, as the throne speech indicated, the primary driver around that is, you know, ensuring long term decarbonization, new capacity and addressing some of the short term reliability issues, whether that, you know, reflects broader changes on the rely on the affordability piece, it's really around, you know, regulated rate options for consumers. So, you know, I think there's an open and a question there around, you know, what impact that would have directly on generation.
Speaker 3: storage solutions, renewables capacity, or even looking at things like CCS.
Speaker 3: you know what we've seen in Alberta and we've you know we've been involved the great privilege of being a leader in the Alberta market is that incomeancy gives us a great and great advantage.
It gives us a grading great advantage.
Speaker 3: So that's how we've been able to lean in over the last six or seven years and identify critical assets that we had conviction that we could go upgrade or extend or re-contract and have demonstrated we can do that. So we're really applying that same strategy now, but to answer your question directly, Ontario, my so Western U.S. are all right down the middle of the fairway that we see similar opportunities.
So that's how we've been able to lean in over the last six or seven years and identify critical assets that we had conviction that we could go up rate or extend or re contract and have demonstrated we can do that so we're really applying that same strategy now.
Avik Dey: Okay, and last one for me, just around the CR and East Windsor and the date of January 1st for the new capacity coming in, if that's something you'll be advocating to maybe address that, maybe push that out a little bit in terms of how you think East Windsor expansion might fit with the current rules under the draft legislation. I think I would go back to my, my previous response on CER, you know, comments are due for draft one tomorrow.
To answer your question directly, Ontario, MISO Western U S are all right down the middle of the fairway that we see similar opportunities.
Speaker 10: Okay, that's great. Thanks very much for that context. I'll get back in the queue.
Okay. That's great. Thanks, very much for that context, I'll get back in the queue.
Thank you.
One moment for questions.
Speaker 7: Our next question comes from Ben van with BMO Capital Market, CME Proceed. I think so.
Our next question comes from Ben Pham with BMO capital markets. You May proceed.
Avik Dey: We've been in active dialogue on that on, on from a federal perspective, but also from a, you know, Ontario Alberta, British Columbia perspective, given that's where we have existing fleet. And we expect, you know, constructive feedback, you know, as we move towards, you know, the next phase of the legislation. Understood.
Hi, Thanks.
Got it.
Just on that last question your response on.
Speaker 11: that the US market historically M&A and maybe it can build up our Gantt growth. Would that coincide with you having some sort of US head?
The U S market, historically, M&A and maybe you can fill up.
Growth with that.
Coincide with.
You, having some sort of U S head.
Unknown Executive: Okay, thanks for the time today. Thank you.
As part of your executive changes.
Unknown Executive: One moment for questions.
That's correct.
Hi, guys yourselves.
Speaker 11: I got your soul so you don't have that today, necessarily because it's more folks in M&A than US.
Don't have that.
John Mould: Our next question comes from John mold with key securities. You may proceed. Okay, thanks.
Today necessary, because it's more focused on M&A in the U S well.
Speaker 3: Well, we're structuring so, you know, with the announcement of Jason Comandante taking on leadership of Canada, we are similarly in.
Well, we've we're structuring so with the announcement of Jason common Dante taking on leadership of Canada.
Avik Dey: Good morning, everybody. I'm me just going back to the market structure question and, you know, very much appreciated early days for all this, but. So I don't know if you have an expectation just around the timing of this process and just thinking back to the capacity market, but that was a pretty detailed stakeholder process that the APO land, and you know, government proposals do include some more fundamental market structure changes, whether there's a capacity market, whether there's mandatory energy-forward contracting, and does that create market structure uncertainty that makes it tougher to make an FID on products in Alberta?
Similarly, and similarly, looking at you at the U S and having a more U S centric structure to help oversee the assets. There. So we don't have someone in place today, but.
Speaker 3: Similarly, looking at the US in having a more US-centric structure to help oversee the assets there. So we don't have someone in place today, but the structure is in place today where we...
The structures in place today, where we've got.
Speaker 3: Canada reporting into Brian Denise as chief commercial officer and similarly our U.S. commercial operation is going to be reporting into Brian as well.
Canada reporting into Bryan Denise as Chief commercial officer, and similarly, our U S commercial.
Operation is going to be reporting into Brian as well.
Speaker 11: Yeah, I'm understood. And I, I wanted to.
Okay understood.
I wanted to.
Avik Dey: I think without commenting specifically on Alberta, investors are always looking for certainty to make capital allocation decisions. We're no different, and so the clarity provided by the IRA in the U.S, to encourage capital investment is something we can look to to set a benchmark for making those long-term capital decisions. So I think we understand and agree with that there needs to be some tweak to the system in Alberta to accommodate congestion and the changing supply mix, but from a capital allocation perspective, we need certainty.
Speaker 11: also follow up on the throne speech market structure. I wanted to more clarify, I know there's
I also follow up on the throne speech market structure and I wanted to clarify I know there is.
Speaker 11: Maybe I read that capacity markets is being evaluated, but there's not really any specific comment from the government on that.
Maybe I read that.
Pass it markets is being evaluated but there's not really any specific comment from the government on that.
Speaker 11: And if you can share if possible is in your conversations with them is part of considering a capacity market that's coming up in a conversation.
And if you can share with parcel is in your conversation with them is.
Considering our capacity market is that coming up in our conversations.
Speaker 3: It's interesting that it's come up on this call a few times now, but I have personally not heard the words capacity market uttered in the conversations today. The conversations have been around what in silvery services do we need to add to address the market issues today. So I personally haven't heard that in all of the conversations I've had. So, you know, I think there's a.
It's interesting that it's come up on this call a few times now, but I am personally not heard the words capacity market.
Third in the conversations today, the conversations have been around what in some ancillary services do we need to add to address the market issues today.
Avik Dey: So you know, we're in a different position than a newcomer given our incumbency in Alberta and leadership position in Alberta, so on balance, you know, we may be willing to make take risks that a newcomer won't, but you cannot under appreciate the value of certainty to making those decisions, and I think we look at that investment decision in Alberta the same as we would in Washington for Fredrickson or Michigan for MTV or you know, Ontario for our growth projects, so we take all of that into account as we make those capital allocation decisions.
So I personally haven't heard that.
In all of the conversations I've had so.
I think there is a the the.
Speaker 3: the notion that we've been through this before and the market and the regulator and government have gone down the path of evaluating the capacity market and decided that the energy only market was the right way forward.
The notion that we've been through this before.
The market and the regulator and government have gone down the path of evaluating a capacity market and decided that the energy only market was the right way forward is where we landed previously.
Speaker 3: is where we landed previously and it feels as though.
Feels as though today the focus is on what specific tweaks and changes do we need to make to the market to reflect the challenges that we're facing right now today because of how successful we've been on renewables penetration in the market itself. So.
Speaker 3: Today the focus is on what specific tweaks and changes do we need to make to the market?
Speaker 3: to reflect the challenges that we're facing right now today.
Speaker 3: because of how successful we've been on renewable penetration in the market itself. So I haven't...
Avik Dey: Okay, that's the great context, and then maybe just one on building regional scale, you're going to see some real scale in Ontario once you've got it already, but even more so with your next set of growth projects coming online, and you've got core gas assets now in a number of say, U.S, kind of regional markets, and I'm wondering at this point, there's the market in the U.S., where you're seeing potential to gradually build something like your Ontario projects, like your platform in Ontario. I think we do, and I think, you know, we've talked about this previously as well, but, you know, I think in my so Western U.S, and Ontario, we see similar situations that not only can we acquire critical natural gas assets, but we can build decarbonization solutions around that given the incumbent positions there, so whether it's because we've got existing assets, interconnections, relationships, building, you know, building out storage solutions, renewables capacity, or even looking at things like CCS, you know, what we've seen in Alberta, and we've, you know, we've been involved the great privilege of being a leader in the Alberta market, is that incumbent to give us a great, great advantage.
I haven't heard that.
Speaker 11: Okay, that makes sense. I just want to make sure and more square that. I'm going to comment on your responses. And then maybe lastly, renewables versus gas and looking at your back while I'm going to eat.
That makes sense I, just wanted to make sure and more smart squared at some of the comments in your responses and then maybe lastly, renewables versus gas and looking at.
Backlog any.
<unk> thoughts on that and relative attractiveness.
I think for US what's interesting is I think the access to grid critical infrastructure I E Interconnects.
Speaker 3: I think for us what's interesting is I think the access to
Speaker 3: grid critical infrastructure i.e. interconnect.
Speaker 3: is growing in value. And the best way to capture that is through buying existing.
Is growing in value and the best way to capture that is through buying existing.
Speaker 3: connected assets, which is generally, you know, natural gas assets.
<unk> assets, which is generally natural gas assets I think on the renewables front, we continue to see opportunities to develop but I think our cost of capital isn't consistent with trying to go by operating assets. For example, we haven't seen that bid ask spread closed to date.
Speaker 3: I think on the renewable front we continue to see opportunities to develop.
Speaker 3: But I think our cost of capital isn't consistent with trying to go buy operating assets, for example, we haven't seen that bid ask spread close to date.
Speaker 3: So, you know, from an acquisition front continuing to look at natural gas assets where we think we can bring our comparative advantages to bear and we've got a clear strategic advantage there to not just price the asset but to optimize the asset. That will continue to be a focus. And then I think on development, you know, we'll continue to see renewables be a focus in that regard.
From an acquisition front continuing to look at natural gas assets, where we think we can bring our comparative advantages to bear and we've got a clear strategic advantage. There so not just price the asset but to optimize the asset that will continue to be a focus and then I think on <unk>.
Development will continue to see renewables via focus in that regard.
Okay. Thanks Vivek.
Speaker 1: Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. One moment for questions.
Thank you and as a reminder to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone.
Avik Dey: So that's how we've been able to lean in over the last six or seven years and identify critical assets that we had conviction that we could go upgrade or extend or re-contract and have demonstrated we can do that. So we're really applying that same strategy now, but to answer your question directly, Ontario, my so Western U.S, are all right down the middle of the fairway that we see similar opportunities. Thank you.
For our questions.
Okay.
Speaker 1: Our next question comes from Patrick Kenney with National Bank Financial, you may proceed.
Our next question comes from Patrick Kenny with National Bank Financial you May proceed.
Unknown Executive: One moment for questions.
Speaker 12: Thank you. Good morning. Um, just to come back to the Genesee repowering, uh, I know both units are still on track for, you know, the 1st half of next year, but.
Thank you good morning.
Just to come back to the Genesee Repowering.
Both units are still on track for the first half of next year, but.
Speaker 12: Just in light of some other larger projects in Western Canada, you know, finally approaching completion, others may be taking a little bit longer, but have there been any surprises, positive or negative on just how, you know, labour availability or productivity has been trending?
Just in light of some other larger projects in Western Canada finally approaching completion.
Others may be taking a little bit longer but.
Have there been any surprises positive or negative on just how.
Benjamin Pham: Our next question comes from Ben Pham with BMO Capital Markets, you may proceed. I think this on our last question, your response on the US market historically M&A and maybe you can build up our Gantt growth with that cone side with you having some sort of US head as part of your executive changes. That's correct. I got your so-so you don't have that today, necessarily, because it's more focused on M&A and the US.
Labor availability for productivity has been trending.
Recently.
Speaker 12: I'd say compared to your base case assumption earlier in the summer to meet those in service dates.
Compared to your base case assumption.
Earlier in the summer to meet those in service dates.
Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks Pat. So, um, what I would say is we've seen market improvement on labor availability and lower absenteeism at repowering through the summer. Uh, and that was based on our recap.
Yes, thanks, Pat So what I would say is we've seen market improvement on labor availability and lower absenteeism at Repowering through the summer and that was based on our recast.
Speaker 3: On the on the revised schedule on the revised budget that we put forward in the second quarter. I think the question is around materiality of changes and dates. So, as you said, you know, we continue to be targeting.
On the on the revised schedule and the revised budget that we put forward in the second quarter.
I think the question is around <unk>.
Benjamin Pham: Well, we're structuring so with the announcement of Jason Comandante taking on leadership of Canada. We are similarly looking at the US in having a more US-centric structure to help oversee the assets there. We don't have someone in place today, but the structure is in place today where we've got Canada reporting into Bryan DeNeve as Chief Commercial Officer and similarly our US Commercial Operation is going to be reporting into Bryan as well.
Materiality of changes in dates so as he said.
We continue to be targeting mid.
Speaker 3: Me, dear next year, we continue to see volatility in that absenteeism. So the trend has been better than where we were running up to in the summer, but across the board it continues to be a challenge, but we've seen positive results from the intervention.
Mid year next year, we continue to see volatility in that absenteeism. So the trend has been better than where we were running up to in the summer but across the board continue just continues to be a challenge, but we have seen positive results from the intervention. So.
Unknown Executive: Okay, understood.
Speaker 3: So, you know, I think the precise dates, you know, are, you know, are somewhat of a moving target, but, you know, generally at a macro level, we're, we're, we're quite satisfied with the improvements we've
I think the precise dates.
Our.
Are somewhat of a moving target, but generally at a macro level. We're we're quite satisfied with the improvements we've seen.
Speaker 12: Okay, thanks for that, Avak. And then maybe for Sandra, apologies if I missed it, but just on the heels of the Frederickson acquisition.
Okay. Thanks for that Eric and then maybe for Sandra.
Avik Dey: I wanted to also fall upon the throne speech market structure. I wanted to more clarify. I know there's maybe a read that capacity markets is being evaluated, but there's not really any specific comment from the government on that. And if you can share if possible is in your conversations with them is part of considering a capacity market that's coming up in a conversation. It's interesting that it's come up on this call a few times now, but I have personally not heard the words capacity market uttered in the conversations today.
If I missed it but just on the heels of the Fredriksen acquisition.
Speaker 12: re-bidding the North Carolina projects.
Rebidding, the North Carolina projects, how are you thinking about.
Speaker 12: fitting some non-core asset divestitures or selling minority interests as part of the overall funding plan for next year.
Fitting some noncore asset divestitures or selling minority interests.
As part of the overall funding plan for next year.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you've heard me say many times before that we do feel that based on our build multiple, you know, selling down a position of...
You've heard me say many times before that we do feel that based on our build multiple.
Moving down our position.
Speaker 4: of our portfolio or a part of our portfolio would make a lot of sense. So do you see that as a funding avenue that is available for us and look at just sort of where the market is at at any given point in time and what our need for capital is? So certainly would have that right up there in the mix with
Of our portfolio are part of our portfolio would make a lot of sense. So do you see that as a funding Avenue that is available for us look at.
Avik Dey: The conversations have been around what insult and silvery services do we need to add to address the market issues today. So I personally haven't heard that in all of the conversations I've had. So, you know, I think there's a the the notion that we've been through this before. And the market and the regulator and government have gone down the path of evaluating a capacity market and decided that the energy only market was the right way forward is where we landed previously.
Sort of where the market is that at any given point in time and what our need for capital. It certainly would have that right up there in the mix.
Speaker 4: our other options for funding next year.
With.
Our other options for funding for next year.
Okay. That's perfect. That's it for me I'll leave it there thanks.
Speaker 1: Thank you. This concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Miss Cat Perone for any closing remarks.
Thank you. This concludes the question and answer session I would now like to turn the conference back over to MS. <unk> for any closing remarks.
Avik Dey: And I it feels as though today the focus is on what specific tweaks and changes do we need to make for the market to reflect, you know, the challenges that we're facing right now today because of how successful we've been on renewable penetration in the market itself. So I haven't heard that. Okay, that that that makes that I just just want to make sure and more square that I'm going to comment on your responses and it may be largely renewables versus gas and looking at.
Okay.
Turning it over to you for closing remarks.
Thanks, Josh.
If there are no more questions. We will conclude our conference call. Thanks, again for joining us and for your interest in capital power today's presentation and webcast will be made available on capital power Dot com have a great day.
Speaker 2: If there are no more questions, we will conclude our conference call. Thanks again for joining us and for your interesting capital power. Today's presentation and webcast will be made available on capitalpower.com. Have a great day.
Speaker 1: Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call you may disconnect. Your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.
Avik Dey: You're back. Well, any updated thoughts on that and relative attractiveness? I think for us what's interesting is I think the access to grid critical infrastructure i.e. Interconnect is growing in value. And the best way to capture that is through buying existing connected assets, which is generally natural gas assets. I think on the renewable front, we continue to see opportunities to develop. But I think our cost of capital isn't consistent with trying to go by operating assets, for example.
Avik Dey: We haven't seen that bid ask spread close to date. So, you know, from an acquisition front, continuing to look at natural gas assets where we think we can bring our comparative advantages to bear and we've got a clear strategic advantage there. To not just price the asset, but to optimize the asset that will continue to be a focus. And then I think on development, you know, we'll continue to see renewables be a focus in that regard.
Unknown Executive: Okay, thank you.
Unknown Executive: Thank you.
Unknown Executive: And as a reminder to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. One moment for questions.
Patrick Kenny: Our next question comes from Patrick Kenny with National Bank Financial. You may proceed. Thank you.
Avik Dey: Good morning. Just to come back to the Genesee repowering. I know both units are still on track for, you know, the first half of next year. But just in light of some other larger projects in Western Canada, you know, finally approaching completion. Others may be taking a little bit longer, but have there been any surprises positive or negative on just how, you know, labor availability productivity has been trending recently. Say compared to your base case assumption earlier in the summer to meet those in service dates.
Avik Dey: Yeah, thanks Pat. So what I would say is we've seen market improvement on labor availability and lower absenteeism at repowering through the summer. And that was based on our recast on the on the revised schedule and the revised budget that we put forward in the second quarter. I think the question is around materiality of changes and dates, as he said, you know, we continue to be targeting mid year next year, we continue to see volatility in that absenteeism.
Avik Dey: So the trend has been better than where we were running up to in the summer. But across the board, it continues to be a challenge. But we've seen positive results from the intervention. So, you know, I think the precise dates, you know, are, you know, are somewhat of a moving target. But, you know, generally at a macro level, we're quite satisfied with the improvements we've seen.
Sandra Haskins: Okay, thanks for that, Avak. And then maybe for Sandra, apologies if I missed it, but just on the heels of the Frederickson acquisition, and, you know, re-bidding the North Carolina projects. How are you thinking about, you know, fitting some non-core asset, the best truths or selling minority interests as part of the overall funding plan for next year? Yeah, you know, you've heard me say many times before that we do feel that based on our build multiple, you know, selling down a position of our portfolio or a part of our portfolio would make a lot of sense.
Sandra Haskins: So, do you see that as a funding avenue that is available for us and, you know, look at just sort of where the market is at at any given point in time and what our need for capital is. So, certainly we would have that right up there in the mix with our other options for funding next year.
Unknown Executive: Okay, that's perfect. That's it for me. I'll leave it there. Thanks. Thank you.
Katherine Perron: This concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Ms. Kat Perone for any closing remarks. Kat? I'm turning it over to you for closing remarks. Thanks, Josh.
Katherine Perron: If there are no more questions, we will conclude our conference call. Thanks again for joining us and for your interest in capital power. Today's presentation and webcast will be made available on capitalpower.com. Have a great day. Thank you.
Unknown Executive: This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and I have a pleasant day.