Q2 2024 AMC Networks Inc Earnings Call
Speaker Change: Good day, everyone, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the AMC Networks' second quarter 2024 earnings conference call.
Operator: This is a Q2 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To participate, you will need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. You will then hear a message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, simply press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. Now, I will pass the call over to Nick Seibert, Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To participate, you will need to press star-one-one on your telephone. You will then hear a message advising your hand is raised.
Speaker Change: To withdraw your question, simply press star 11 again.
Speaker Change: Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. Now I will pass the call over to Nick Seibert, Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Nicholas Seibert: Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to the AMC Networks second quarter 2024 earnings conference. Joining us this morning are Kristin Dolan, Chief Executive Officer, Patrick O'Connell, Chief Financial Officer, Kim Kelleher, Chief Commercial Officer, and Dan McDermott, President of Entertainment and AMC Studios. Today's press release is available on our website at amcnetworks.com. We will begin with prepared remarks, and then we'll open the call for questions. Statements made during today's call may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Nick Seibert: Thank you. Good morning and welcome to the AMC Networks 2nd Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call.
Speaker Change: Joining us this morning are Kristin Dolan, Chief Executive Officer, Patrick O'Connell, Chief Financial Officer, Kim Kelleher, Chief Commercial Officer, and Dan McDermott, President of Entertainment and AMC Studios.
Speaker Change: Today's press release is available on our website at amcnetworks.com. We will begin with prepared remarks and then we'll open the call for questions.
Speaker Change: Today's call may include certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance or results and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ.
Speaker Change: Please refer to AMC Networks SEC filings for a discussion of risks and uncertainties.
Speaker Change: The company disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements made on this call today. We will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. The required definitions and reconciliations can be found in today's press release. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kristin.
Nicholas Seibert: Any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance or results and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. Please refer to AMC Networks' SEC filings for a discussion of risks and uncertainties. The company disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements made on this call today. We will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. The required definitions and reconciliations can be found in today's press release. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kristin. Thank you.
Kristin Dolan: Thank you, Nick, and thank you everyone for joining us this morning. As we navigate a dynamic and complex media environment, we continue to find opportunities in a strategic plan built around programming, partnerships, and profitability. Key to this plan is the creation and curation of celebrated films and series and making them available to viewers wherever they might choose to watch. I'd like to note the significant progress we've made against one of our major strategic priorities, generating strong free cash flow.
Kristen: Thank you Nick and thanks everyone for joining this morning. As we navigate a dynamic and complex media environment, we continue to find opportunities in a strategic plan built around programming, partnerships, and profitability.
Kristen: Key to this plan is the creation and curation of celebrated films and series and making them available to viewers wherever they might choose to watch.
Kristen: I'd like to note the significant progress we've made against one of our major strategic priorities, generating strong free cash flow.
Kristin Dolan: I am pleased to report that just halfway through the year, we have already delivered $239 million of free cash flow, and we're well on our way to achieving our full year guidance for this important metric. This is the result of our prudent and disciplined financial management of the business.
Speaker Change: I am pleased to report that just halfway through the year, we have already delivered $239 million of free cash flow, and we're well on our way to achieving our full year guidance for this important metric. This is the result of our prudent and disciplined financial management of the business.
Kristin Dolan: Our overall strategic approach is evident in our new branded distribution partnership with Netflix, featuring prior seasons of 15 AMC shows on the number one streaming platform in the world. This non-exclusive licensing agreement will give the vast U.S. audience of Netflix subscribers access to our high-quality, critically acclaimed content, with the AMC brand clearly represented. We believe that finding a bigger stage for our shows will be a big win for our own platforms and existing distribution partners. Years ago, Breaking Bad demonstrated the power of Netflix to help build awareness and interest in a series that was still airing new seasons on AMC.
Speaker Change: Our overall strategic approach is evident in our new branded distribution partnership with Netflix, featuring prior seasons of 15 AMC shows on the number one streaming platform in the world.
Speaker Change: This non-exclusive licensing agreement will give the vast U.S. audience of Netflix subscribers access to our high quality, critically acclaimed content, with the AMC brand clearly represented.
Speaker Change: We believe that finding a bigger stage for our shows will be a big win for our own platforms and existing distribution partners.
Kristin Dolan: We're looking forward to seeing our core franchises and most important current shows tap into this same powerful engine for audience expansion. Unique partnerships like this demonstrate that AMC Networks is an innovative and nimble company, unencumbered by the constraints and limited options facing others in our industry. We have the freedom to work with anyone, and we have a continued commitment to nurturing strong brands and quality storytelling, supported by a sustainable and predictable wholesale business model.
Speaker Change: Years ago, Breaking Bad demonstrated the power of Netflix to help build awareness and interest in a series that was still launching new seasons on AMC. We're looking forward to seeing our core franchises and most important current shows tap into this same powerful engine for audience expansion.
Speaker Change: Unique partnerships like this demonstrate that AMC Networks is an innovative and nimble company, unencumbered by the constraints and limited options facing others in our industry.
Speaker Change: We have the freedom to work with anyone, and we have a continued commitment to nurturing strong brands and quality storytelling, supported by a sustainable and predictable wholesale business model.
Kristin Dolan: In addition to new content partnerships, we're growing distribution of our linear networks and AMC Plus through new internet-delivered skinny bundles. During the quarter, we expanded our partnership with Philo, which launched the ad-supported version of AMC Plus in their new core package, and the response from consumers has been tremendous, with consistent week-over-week subscriber gains since the launch in June. Additionally, all of our linear networks, including BBC News, are part of Optimum's new Entertainment TV package, demonstrating the continued strength of our networks in this evolving environment.
Speaker Change: In addition to new content partnerships, we're growing distribution of our linear networks and AMC Plus through new internet-delivered skinny bundles.
Speaker Change: During the quarter, we expanded our partnership with Philo, which launched the ad-supported version of AMC Plus in their new core package, and the response from consumers has been tremendous, with consistent week-over-week subscriber gains since the launch in June .
Speaker Change: Additionally, all of our linear networks, including BBC News, are part of Optimum's new Entertainment TV package, demonstrating the continued strength of our networks in this evolving environment.
Kristin Dolan: Viewership of our branded channels in the increasingly important FAST and AVOD categories continues to grow. We now have 18 FAST channels live on 11 platforms, totaling 114 active channel feeds to supplement our linear reach. We are also implementing our partnership strategy internationally, making our high-quality content available to viewers through licensing and distribution arrangements with top-tier partners in territories beyond our own footprint. We've recently expanded AMC's brand presence in the UK through partnerships with Sky for the Walking Dead universe, the BBC for our Anne Rice Immortal universe, and ITV's ad-supported streaming service, ITVX, which carries several of our branded AVOD offerings
Speaker Change: Viewership of our branded channels in the increasingly important FAST and AVOD categories continues to grow. We now have 18 FAST channels live on 11 platforms totaling 114 active channel feeds to supplement our linear reach.
Speaker Change: We are also implementing our partnership strategy internationally, making our high-quality content available to viewers through licensing and distribution arrangements with top-tier partners in territories beyond our own footprint.
Speaker Change: We've recently expanded AMC's brand presence in the UK through partnerships with Sky for the Walking Dead universe, the BBC for our Anne Rice Immortal universe, and ITV's ad-supporting streaming service ITVX, which carries several of our branded AVOD offerings.
Kristin Dolan: In keeping with our wholesale approach, our belief in the power of partnerships, and our desire for financial predictability, we recently entered into an agreement with Comcast Technology Solutions to manage most of our content distribution domestically and around the world. With CTS as our comprehensive back-end solutions provider, we can leverage Comcast's scale and best-in-class technology to deliver our content much more effectively and economically than we can on our own.
Speaker Change: In keeping with our wholesale approach, our belief in the power of partnerships, and desire for financial predictability, we recently entered into an agreement with Comcast Technology Solutions to manage most of our content distribution domestically and around the world.
Speaker Change: With CTS as our comprehensive back-end solutions provider, we can leverage Comcast's scale and best-in-class technology to deliver our content much more effectively and economically than we can on our own.
Kristin Dolan: In terms of advertising upfront, I'm pleased with our performance as the market continues to transform. We've been able to leverage our well-defined and fan-focused networks to achieve favorable pricing and volume across linear and digital distribution. We continue to put high-quality shows on linear television, particularly AMC on Sundays and WE tv on Fridays, creating value for our advertising and affiliate partners. These examples underscore our position as a sought-after and desirable business partner across the industry, enabling us to expand and deepen our distribution and advertising alliance.
Speaker Change: In terms of the advertising up front, I'm pleased with our performance as the market continues to transform. We've been able to leverage our well-defined and fan-focused networks to achieve favorable pricing and volume across linear and digital distribution.
Speaker Change: We continue to put high-quality shows on linear television, particularly AMC on Sundays and WE tv on Fridays, creating value for our advertising and affiliate partners.
Speaker Change: These examples underscore our position as a sought-after and desirable business partner across the industry, enabling us to expand and deepen our distribution and advertising alliances.
Kristin Dolan: Our content drove several operational and programming highlights in the quarter, which I'll share before I turn the call over to Patrick for a more detailed look at our finances. The strong performances of The Walking Dead, The Ones Who Live, and the second season of Anne Rice's interview with the vampire, both of which received enormous critical acclaim, drove AMC Plus to achieve all-time highs in viewership this quarter. The penultimate episode of Interview, a trial with a devastating outcome, has become a fan favorite and an instant classic. We have renewed Anne Rice's Interview with the Vampire and The Walking Dead's Daryl Dixon for third seasons.
Speaker Change: Our content drove several operational and programming highlights in the quarter, which I'll share before I turn the call over to Patrick for a more detailed look at our financials.
Speaker Change: The strong performances of The Walking Dead, The Ones Who Live, and the second season of Anne Rice's Interview with the Vampire, both of which received enormous critical acclaim, drove AMC Plus to achieve all-time highs in viewership this quarter. The penultimate episode of Interview, a trial with a devastating outcome, has become a fan favorite and instant classic.
Speaker Change: We have renewed Anne Rice's interview with the vampire and The Walking Dead's Daryl Dixon for third seasons.
Kristin Dolan: Both series were part of our very loud and exciting presence at Comic-Con in late July. We were thrilled with the response from our engaged fans at this event, which is an important annual focal point for our company and programming franchise. In other programming news, we recently greenlit a third Anne Rice series focused on a secretive society called the Talamasca and announced a new series from AMC Studios set inside the bubble of Silicon Valley from Jonathan Gladser, a sought-after writer who previously worked on Better Call Saul and Succession. Horror films from IFC and Shudder were also represented at Comic-Con. I would like to recognize the incredible year we are having with films in the horror genre.
Speaker Change: Both series were part of our very loud and exciting presence at Comic-Con in late July . We were thrilled with the response from our engaged fans at this event, which is an important annual focal point for our company and programming franchises.
Speaker Change: In other programming news, we recently greenlit a third Anne Rice series focused on a secretive society called the Talamasca, and announced a new series from AMC Studios set inside the bubble of Silicon Valley from Jonathan Gladser, a sought-after writer who previously worked on Better Call Saul and Succession.
Speaker Change: Horror films from IFC and Shudder were also represented at Comic-Con. I would like to recognize the incredible year we are having with films in the horror genre.
Kristin Dolan: With titles like Late Night with the Devil, In a Violent Nature, VHS 85, and others, we have dominated top 10 lists and further solidified these brands as being synonymous with the very best in horror, both at the box office and on streaming. This level of fan credibility and community is the foundation upon which all our targeted services are built, and demonstrates our strength and unique value proposition. It is worth noting that in the second quarter, both Acorn TV and our High Dive anime service implemented price increases with an insignificant impact on churn due to our highly engaged and brand loyal subscribers.
Speaker Change: With titles like Late Night with the Devil, In a Violent Nature, VHS 85, and others, we have dominated top ten lists and further solidified these brands as being synonymous with the very best in horror, both at the box office and on streaming.
Speaker Change: This level of fan credibility and community is the foundation upon which all our targeted services are built.
Speaker Change: demonstrates our strength and unique value proposition. It is worth noting that in the second quarter both Acorn TV and our High Dive anime service implemented price increases with an insignificant impact on churn due to our highly engaged and brand loyal subscribers.
Kristin Dolan: On WE tv, our new music competition show, Deb's House, was a strong performer for both the linear network and our all-black streaming service. The strength of originals such as Love After Lockup franchise, Deb's House, and Mama June have solidified WE tv's standing as the number one cable network on Friday nights for black adults 25 to 54 and black women 25 to 54. We're also very excited to see the return of the Braxtons, one of the founding families of reality television, with a new series premiering tonight.
Speaker Change: On WE tv our new music competition show Deb's House was a strong performer for both the linear network and our all-black streaming service
Speaker Change: The strength of originals such as Love After Lockup franchise, Deb's House, and Mama June have solidified WE tv's standing as the number one cable network on Friday nights for black adults 25-54 and black women 25-54.
Speaker Change: We're also very excited to see the return of the Braxtons, one of the founding families of reality television, with a new series premiering tonight.
Kristin Dolan: In addition to supporting our great content, we continue to drive profitability by refining our organization and operation. Under the leadership of Stephanie Michko, our EVP of Global Media Operations and Technology, we're in the midst of a global transformation to streamline functions and modernize content distribution across all platforms, both domestically and internationally, which we achieved through our new agreement with Comcast Technology Solutions. We've also reorganized our programming and scheduling teams into a consolidated unit across all brands and platforms.
Speaker Change: In addition to supporting our great content, we continue to drive profitability by refining our organization and operations.
Speaker Change: Under the leadership of Stephanie Mitschko, our EVP of Global Media Operations and Technology, we're in the midst of a global transformation to streamline functions and modernize content distribution across all platforms both domestically and internationally.
Speaker Change: which will be realized through our new agreement with Comcast Technology Solutions.
Speaker Change: We've also reorganized our programming and scheduling teams into a consolidated unit across all brands and platforms.
Kristin Dolan: Under our CMO, Kim Granito, we've optimized and integrated marketing, media, branding, research, and our award-winning content room efforts. As noted earlier, it is a dynamic and complex time in media. Even as much larger players are facing existential challenges, AMC Networks is successfully pursuing a strategy built on our proven ability to make great shows, reach viewers wherever they are, and find new ways to support and monetize our content in a fragmented world. With that, I'll turn the call over to Patrick. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Under our CMO, Kim Granito, we've optimized and integrated marketing, media, branding, research, and our award-winning content room efforts.
Speaker Change: As noted earlier, it is a dynamic and complex time in media.
Speaker Change: Even as much larger players are facing existential challenges, AMC Networks is successfully pursuing a strategy built on our proven ability to make great shows, to meet viewers wherever they are, and to find new ways to support and monetize our content in a fragmented world. With that, I'll turn the call over to Patrick.
Patrick OConnell: As the new media landscape continues to develop, we remain consistent in our strategic and financial priorities. We are leveraging our endemic strengths as an innovative and nimble premium programmer while employing disciplined financial management as the industry continues to evolve. We've also made significant progress in optimizing our investments, driving free cash flow, and preserving the strength of our balance sheet, which remains on track to achieve our financial outlook for the year. In just the first six months of 2024, we have already generated more free cash flow than we did in all of 23, setting us up to achieve our outlook of year-over-year free cash flow growth for 2024 and approximately half a billion dollars of cumulative free cash flow by the On to our second quarter consolidated results. Consolidated revenue decreased 8% to $626 million in the quarter.
Patrick: Thank you, Kristin. As the new media landscape continues to develop, we remain consistent in our strategic and financial priorities.
Patrick: We are leveraging our endemic strengths as an innovative and nimble premium programmer while employing disciplined financial management as the industry continues to evolve.
Patrick: We've also made significant progress in optimizing our investments, driving free cash flow, and preserving the strength of our balance sheet.
Patrick: who remain on track to achieve our financial outlook for the year.
Patrick: In just the first six months of 2024, we have already generated more free cash flow than we did in all of 23, setting us up to achieve our outlook of the year-over-year free cash flow growth for 2024 and approximately half a billion dollars of cumulative free cash flow by the end of 2025.
Patrick OConnell: Excluding prior period revenue from 25.7 Media and the return of rights from Hulu and the current period revenue related to a one-time adjustment payment at AMC&I, second quarter revenue decreased 4%. Adjusted operating income was $153 million, representing a 24% margin, and we generated $95 million of free cash flow in the quarter. Moving on to our segment-level finance, Domestic operations revenue decreased 7% to $538 million. Excluding revenue related to the return of rights from HULU in the prior year period, domestic operations revenue decreased 4%.
Patrick: On to our second quarter consolidated results.
Patrick: Consolidated revenue decreased 8% to $626 million in the quarter.
Patrick: Excluding prior period revenue from 25-7 media and the return of rights from HULU and the current period revenue related to a one-time adjustment payment at AMC&I, second quarter revenue decreased 4%.
Patrick: Adjusted operating income was $153 million, representing a 24% margin, and we generated $95 million of free cash flow in the quarter.
Patrick: [inaudible]
Patrick: Moving on to our segment-level financials.
Patrick: Domestic operations revenue decreased 7% to $538 million.
Patrick: Excluding revenue related to the return of rights from Hulu in the prior year period, domestic operations revenue decreased 4%.
Patrick OConnell: Subscription revenue of $323 million decreased 3% due to a 12% decline in affiliate revenue, which is primarily driven by a decrease in linear subscribers and was partially offset by streaming revenue growth of 9%, which is driven by both subscribers and rates. At quarter end, we had 11.6 million streaming subscribers, and we are beginning to see the benefits of recent price increases at our targeted services, Acorn and Hi-Di, flow through the P&L.
Patrick: Subscription revenue of $323 million decreased 3% due to a 12% decline in affiliate revenue, which is primarily driven by a decrease in linear subscribers, and was partially offset by streaming revenue growth of 9%.
Patrick: which was driven by both subscribers and rates.
Patrick: At quarter end, we had 11.6 million streaming subs.
Patrick: And we are beginning to see the benefits of recent price increases at our targeted services Acorn and Hi-Di flow through the P&L.
Patrick OConnell: Content Licensing Revenue was $67 million, given by the timing and availability of deliveries in the quarter. As you may recall, in the second quarter of last year, we negotiated the return of certain rights with Hulu, which resulted in a pull-forward of approximately $20 million in revenue. Excluding this, licensing revenue increased 10% year-over-year.
Patrick: Content licensing revenue was $67 million, given by the timing and availability of deliveries in the quarter.
Speaker Change: As you may recall, in the second quarter of last year, we negotiated the return of certain rights with Hulu, which resulted in a pull-forward of approximately $20 million of revenue. Excluding this, licensing revenue increased 10% year-over-year.
Patrick OConnell: Our premium programming remains sought after, and we are seeing strength in licensing as evidenced by the recent domestic and international activities that Kristin detailed earlier. Advertising revenue of $149 million improved sequentially versus the first quarter. However, on a year-over-year basis, advertising revenue declined 11%.
Speaker Change: Our premium programming remains sought after and we are seeing strength in licensing as evidenced by the recent domestic and international activities that Kristin detailed earlier.
Speaker Change: Advertising revenue of $149 million improved sequentially versus the first quarter. On a year-over-year basis, advertising revenue declined 11%. This is primarily due to lower linear ratings and was partially offset by continued digital growth.
Patrick OConnell: This was primarily due to lower linear ratings and is partially offset by continued digital growth. Domestic operations AOI was $155 million for the quarter, with a healthy margin of 29%. The year-over-year decrease in AOI was largely driven by the revenue decline in the quarter, which was partially offset by continued cost discipline. I'll now briefly touch on our internationals.
Kristin: Domestic operations AOI was $155 million for the quarter, with a healthy margin of 29%.
Kristin: The year-over-year decrease in AOI was largely driven by the revenue decline in the quarter, which was partially offset by continued cost discipline.
Patrick OConnell: Second quarter international revenue was $90 million and included $13 million of advertising revenue related to a one-time adjustment payment. Excluding 25.7 media and the adjustment payment, international revenues decreased 4%. On an apples-to-apples basis, second quarter advertising revenues grew 18 percent, largely due to new streaming offerings, including our new A-Bud offerings on ITVX in the UK. International AOI was $29 million for the quarter. Excluding the adjustment payment, International AOI was $16 million, with a margin of 21%.
Kristin: I'll now briefly touch on our international segment.
Kristin: Second quarter international revenue was $90 million and included $13 million of advertising revenue related to a one-time adjustment payment.
Kristin: Excluding 25-7 media and the adjustment payment, international revenues decreased 4%. On an apples-to-apples basis, second quarter advertising revenues grew 18%, largely due to new streaming offerings, including our new AVOD offerings on ITVX in the UK.
Kristin: International AOI was $29 million for the quarter.
Kristin: Excluding the adjustment payment, International AOI was $16 million, with a margin of 21%.
Patrick OConnell: Moving to the balance sheet, we continue to believe that the proactive and prudent management of our balance sheet affords valuable flexibility as well as the ability to fully focus on the evolution of our business as the new video landscape continues to take shape. In addition to the significant refinancing activity that we discussed in detail on our last call, more recently in June, we completed an offering of $144 million, a four and a quarter percent convertible senior notes due 2029, as we sought to capitalize on the volatility in our stock price and add additional liquidity to our balance sheet.
Kristin: Moving to the balance sheet.
Kristin: We continue to believe that the proactive and prudent management of our balance sheet affords us valuable flexibility as well as the ability to fully focus on the evolution of our business as the new video landscape continues to take shape.
Kristin: In addition to the significant refinancing activity that we discussed in detail on our last call, more recently in June , we completed an offering of $144 million of 4.25% convertible senior notes through 2029 as we sought to capitalize on the volatility in our stock price and add additional liquidity to our balance sheet.
Patrick OConnell: We ended the second quarter with net debt of approximately $1.6 billion and a consolidated net leverage ratio of 2.8 times. As a reminder, we have meaningfully extended our maturity profile and pushed out all bar maturities to 2029. We ended the quarter with approximately $1 billion of total liquidity, including more than $800 million of cash on the balance sheet and our undrawn $175 million revolver.
Kristin: We ended the second quarter with net debt of approximately $1.6 billion and a consolidated net leverage ratio of 2.8 times.
Kristin: As a reminder, we have meaningfully extended our maturity profile and pushed out all bond maturities to 2029.
Kristin: We ended the quarter with approximately $1 billion of total liquidity, including more than $800 million of cash on the balance sheet and our undrawn $175 million revolver.
Patrick OConnell: We continue to appreciate the flexibility and optionality that our cash position affords us. We believe our capital structure will continue to present attractive opportunities for us to deploy cash in an accretive manner, benefiting both equity and credit over time...
Kristin: We continue to appreciate the flexibility and optionality that our cash position affords us.
Kristin: We believe our capital structure will continue to present attractive opportunities for us to deploy cash in an accretive manner, benefiting both the equity and the credit over time.
Patrick OConnell: On that note, in the second quarter, we repurchased $15 million principal amount of our four-and-a-quarter senior notes due 2029 for approximately $10 million, capturing approximately $5 million of discounts. On the topic of capital allocation, our philosophy remains prudent and opportunistic. First, we look to support the business by creating and acquiring compelling programming that resonates with our audiences while maintaining healthy levels of profitability and cash flow generation. Second, we look to improve our balance sheet by reducing gross debt and optimizing our capital structure. Third, M&A and share repurchases or dividends remain further down our current priority list.
Kristin: On that note, in the second quarter, we repurchased $15 million principal amount of our four-and-a-quarter senior notes due 2029 for approximately $10 million, capturing approximately $5 million of discount.
Kristin: On the topic of capital allocation, our philosophy remains prudent and opportunistic.
Speaker Change: First, we look to support the business by creating and acquiring compelling programming that resonates with our audiences while maintaining healthy levels of profitability and cash flow generation.
Speaker Change: Second, we look to improve our balance sheet by reducing gross debt and optimizing our capital structure.
Speaker Change: Third, M&A and share repurchases or dividends remain further down our current priority list.
Patrick OConnell: Moving on to our Outlook, we are pleased to reiterate our positive outlook today. Starting with free cash flow, we continue to expect to grow free cash flow year over year in 2024, and by 2025, we expect to have generated cumulative free cash flow of approximately half a billion dollars. Regarding revenue, we continue to expect total revenue of approximately $2.4 billion for the full year. Notwithstanding that, in terms of our initial expectations for the full year, as discussed on our fourth quarter call regarding the specific revenue lines that underpin our full-year revenue outlook, we are seeing some shifting in the composition of our full-year revenue. Moving to AOI.
Speaker Change: Moving on to our Outlook. We are pleased to reiterate our Outlook today.
Speaker Change: Starting with free cash flow, we continue to expect to grow free cash flow year over year in 2024, and by 2025, we expect to have generated cumulative free cash flow of approximately half a billion dollars.
Speaker Change: Regarding revenue, we continue to expect total revenue of approximately $2.4 billion for the full year.
Speaker Change: Notwithstanding that, in terms of our initial expectations for the full year, as discussed on our fourth quarter call, regarding the specific revenue lines that underpin our full-year revenue outlook, we are seeing some shifting in the composition of our full-year revenue.
Patrick OConnell: For 2024, we continue to expect consolidated AOI of $550 to $575 million. Continued streaming and digital advertising growth as well as prudent expense management remain a focus despite continued revenue headwinds in the business. Our content investments are at appropriate levels to best support our business and drive free cash flow. For the full year 2024, we anticipate that cash programming spend will be approximately one billion, and that programming amortization will be similar to the 2023 level.
Speaker Change: Moving to AOI. For 2024, we continue to expect consolidated AOI of $550 to $575 million.
Speaker Change: Continued streaming and digital advertising growth, as well as prudent expense management, remain a focus, despite continued revenue headwinds in the business.
Speaker Change: Our content investments are at appropriate levels to best support our business and drive free cash flow.
Speaker Change: For the full year 2024, we anticipate that cash programming spend to be approximately $1 billion and that programming amortization will be similar to 2023 levels.
Patrick OConnell: I'll now dive a little deeper into some of the nuances related to programming amortization. In 2024, we continue to experience comparably lower levels of amortization expense, the result of strategic programming reassessments that occurred at the end of 2022. Additionally, carryover amortization of prior year programming investments continues to flow through the P&L. Given these dynamics, as we look to next year, we anticipate a year-over-year increase in programming amortization expense for 2025. It is important to note that this is non-cash and does not impact our free cash flow expectation for next year.
Speaker Change: I'll now dive a little deeper into some of the nuances related to programming amortization.
Speaker Change: In 2024, we continue to experience comparably lower levels of amortization expense, the result of strategic programming reassessments that occurred at the end of 2022.
Speaker Change: Additionally, carryover amortization of prior year programming investments continue to flow through the P&L.
Speaker Change: Given these dynamics, as we look to next year, we anticipate a year-over-year increase in programming amortization expense for 2025.
Speaker Change: It is important to note that this is non-cash and does not impact our free cash flow expectation for next year. And we remain highly confident in our ability to achieve cumulative free cash flow across 2024 and 2025 of approximately half a billion dollars.
Patrick OConnell: And we remain highly confident in our ability to achieve cumulative free cash flow across 2024 and 2025 of approximately half a billion dollars. I'll close with what I've said in the past. AMC Networks continues to employ a back-to-basics approach that emphasizes broad distribution of our content and brands across platforms and prioritizes near-term monetization while at the same time taking advantage of our unique position as a nimble and innovative premium programmer. We'll continue to allocate our capital wisely to ensure we maintain a healthy balance sheet, remain extremely disciplined on expenses, and balance appropriate levels of programming investment against available monetiz We'll continue to allocate our capital wisely to ensure we maintain a healthy balance sheet, remain extremely disciplined on expenses, and balance appropriate levels of. With that, Operator, please open the line for questions.
Speaker Change: I'll close with what I have said in the past.
Speaker Change: AMC Networks continues to employ a back-to-basics approach that emphasizes broad distribution of our content and brands across platforms and prioritizes near-term monetization, and at the same time, takes advantage of our unique position as a nimble and innovative premium programmer.
Speaker Change: We'll continue to allocate our capital wisely to ensure we maintain a healthy balance sheet, remain extremely disciplined on expenses, and balance appropriate levels of programming investment against available monetization opportunities.
Operator: Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To remove yourself, press star 11 again. Please stand by for our first question, which is from Thomas Yeh with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
Speaker Change: With that, Operator, please open the line for questions. Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, press star 1-1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To remove yourself, press star 1-1 again. Please stand by for our first question.
Speaker Change: And it's from Thomas Yeh with Morgan Stanley . Please proceed.
Thomas Yeh: Thanks so much. Good morning. Kristin, I wanted to dig in a little bit on this Netflix deal. How does it look in terms of the outline of what you're expecting it to do relative to the experiments that you have run in the past with, say, for example, HBO with the AMC plus movies, and has the experimentation evolved in any way in terms of what you're hoping to get out of it and what you're hoping to see? Yeah, absolutely.
Thomas Yeh: Thanks so much. Good morning. Kristin, I wanted to dig in a little bit on this Netflix deal. How does it
Thomas Yeh: Look in terms of the outline of what you're expecting it to do relative to
Thomas Yeh: the experiments that you had run in the past with, say, for example, HBO with the AMC Plus pics, and has the experimentation evolved in any way in terms of what you're hoping to get out of it and what you're hoping to see?
Kristin Dolan: Sure. Good morning, Thomas.
Speaker Change: Good morning, Thomas. We're super excited about this deal. A lot of people do talk about the Breaking Bad effect and how a decade or so ago, the exposure that Breaking Bad got on Netflix really helped break that series out.
Kristin Dolan: We're super excited about this deal. A lot of people talk about the Breaking Bad effect and how, a decade or so ago, the exposure that Breaking Bad got on Netflix really helped break that series out into something that's now kind of part of our culture. And so with the Netflix deal, we're putting our content, non-exclusively prior seasons, on a very big stage in the U.S. And these shows will not only get a lot of exposure to the 125 million Netflix subscribers in the U.S., but for our distribution partners, who all have Netflix partnerships themselves, it's beneficial to them as well.
Speaker Change: into something that's now kind of part of our culture. And so with the Netflix deal...
Speaker Change: You know, we're putting our content non-exclusively prior seasons on a very big stage in the U.S. And these shows not only will get a lot of exposure to the 125 million Netflix subscribers in the U.S., but for our distribution partners.
Speaker Change: who all have, you know, Netflix partnerships themselves, it's beneficial to them as well, right? So if you think about Roku has a Netflix button on their remote control, right? Comcast and others have Netflix partnerships and bundles within their distribution ecosystem. So...
Kristin Dolan: So if you think about Roku has a Netflix button on their remote control, Comcast, and others have Netflix partnerships and bundles within their distribution ecosystems. So for us, having this exposure, we think will really drive, as it did with Max, people back to AMC and AMC Plus for the new seasons that are premiering in 2025 and 2026 of these franchises. So it's exciting for us, and I think Netflix is also equally excited about it.
Speaker Change: For us, having this exposure we think will really drive, as it did with Max, people back to AMC and AMC+.
Speaker Change: for the new seasons that are premiering in 2025 and 2026 of these franchises. So, it's exciting for us. I think Netflix is also equally excited about it. So, August 19th, it all shows up on screen, so we encourage everybody to check it out and to, you know, if there's anything you haven't consumed yet.
Kristin Dolan: So, August 19th, it all shows up on screen. So we encourage everybody to check it out. And if there's anything you haven't consumed yet of our newer franchises, watch Seasons 1 and, in some cases, Seasons 2, and then roll them back to us when we get into the fall and into early next year for the premieres of the new seasons.
Speaker Change: of our newer franchises, watch Seasons 1 and in some cases Seasons 2, and then roll on back to us when we get into the fall and into early next year for the premieres of the new seasons.
Speaker Change: Got it, understood, makes sense. Patrick, I wanted to ask about your comment also on the ear-rear increase expected in programming amortization next year.
Patrick: You've been running at about a billion of cash spend on programming for this year and I think last year as well. What's driving that bump in cadence?
Speaker Change: Are you expected to kind of hold the $1 billion zone in terms of what's the right investment level for the future of the business?
Patrick OConnell: Yeah, hey, Thomas, thanks for the question. So the answer to your first question is, and just to clarify, the $1 billion is a cash number, right? So that $1 billion of cash programming investment is what we're currently kind of investing this year. But let me flip back to the amortization question, which I think is what you're really asking here.
Speaker Change: investing this year. But let me flip back to the amortization question, which I think is what you were really asking here. So obviously, programming is, you know, our largest and most strategic investment that we make in this business. And so we're always.
Patrick OConnell: So obviously, programming is, you know, our largest and most strategic investment that we make in this business. And so we're always continuously calibrating it against the available monetization opportunities, as I said in my remarks. In years past, cash programming has Floated up to $1.3, almost up to $1.4 billion, certainly much higher than the billion that we're spending this year. And in 2022, you're aware, we took some decisive steps to right-size the programming levels. You know, AMC has always been about quality, not quantity.
Speaker Change: Continuously calibrating it against the available monetization opportunities as I said in my remarks in years past
Speaker Change: Cash programming has floated up to 1.3, almost up to 1.4 billion dollars, certainly much higher than the billion that we're
Speaker Change: You're spending this year, and in 2022, you're aware we took some decisive steps to right-size our programming levels?
Kristin Dolan: I think that's kind of resonated in the market. I think we're taking very much a back to basics approach there. We also reduced the level of programming on some of our services in 23 as well. And so, obviously, that has a flow-through effect in terms of the amortization that gets realized in the income statement. And so taken together, those two steps, the write-downs at the end of 22, and the reduction in sort of programming volume across some of our services in 2023, had the effect of reducing programming amortization in 23 and 24.
Speaker Change: You know, AMC has always been about quality, not quantity. I think that's kind of resonated in the market, I think.
Speaker Change: We're taking very much a back-to-basics approach there. We also reduced...
Speaker Change: The level of programming on some of our services in 23 as well, and so obviously that has a flow-through effect in terms of the amortization that gets realized in the income statement. So, taken together, those two steps.
Kristin Dolan: But the reality is we have yet to fully amortize the pre-23 kind of higher levels of investment, what we call the kind of carryover amortization that kind of flows through the system over, you know, three to four years. So this is going to have the effect of increasing year over year amortization from 24 into 25, just given the amount of puts and takes. We don't think this was sort of fully kind of recognized in the markets.
Speaker Change: The write downs at the end of 22 and the reduction in sort of programming volume across some of our services in 2023 had the effect of reducing programming amortization in 23 and 24. But the reality is we have yet to fully amortize.
Speaker Change: the pre-23 kind of higher levels of investment what we call kind of carry over amort that kind of flows through this system over you know three to four years
Speaker Change: So this is going to have the effect of increasing year-over-year amortization from 24 into 25.
Speaker Change: Just given the amount of puts and takes, we don't think this was fully recognized in the markets. We wanted to call it out.
Kristin Dolan: We wanted to call it out. But obviously, you know, the most important aspect here is that our cash programming and investment for 2024 remains roughly a billion dollars. That's our current run rate, and we also have, you know, a clear line of sight towards the roughly half a billion dollars of free cash flow that will be generated between this year and next. So this was just an effort to sort of like, help people understand some of the moving pieces because there's sometimes some confusion between amortization and cash program investment.
Speaker Change: But obviously, you know, the most important aspect here is that our cache programming
Speaker Change: Investment for 2024 remains roughly a billion dollars. That's our current unrate.
Speaker Change: and...
Speaker Change: you know, we also have
Speaker Change: You know, clear line of sight towards the roughly half a billion dollars of free cash flow that will generate between this year and next. So this was just an effort to sort of like help people understand some of the moving pieces because there's sometimes some confusion between amortization and cash programming investment.
Kristin Dolan: Can I just add to that because Dan's sitting right here and I just I need to congratulate him and his folks for you know Even with the reduction in expense since since I've joined the company the quality of what we're putting on the street Continues to be stellar and we talked about a little bit in the script But anybody that's watched season, you know The current season of interview with the vampire episode 5 or if you've watched Daryl Dixon, which was shot You know in France like the quality of what we're producing ourselves and then on the film side that the value of the Acquisitions that our film team is doing continue to really build for us the franchises the content and the asset value Because we're doing great stuff, but we're doing it in a very cost-conscious way So I just you know that the reduction in expense is important But we've really I think sustained if not enhanced the quality of what we're putting out in our products across all brands
Speaker Change: Can I just add to that because Dan's sitting right here and I just I need to congratulate him.
Dan: and his folks for, you know, even with the reduction in expense since I've joined the company, the quality of what we're putting on the street continues to be stellar. And we talked about a little bit in the script, but...
Speaker Change: Anybody that's watched season, you know, the current season of Interview with the Vampire, Episode 5, or if you've watched Daryl Dixon, which was shot...
Speaker Change: You know, in France, like the quality of what we're producing ourselves, and then on the film side, that the value of the acquisitions that our film team is doing continue to really build for us the franchises, the content, and the asset value, because we're doing great stuff, but we're doing it in a very cost-conscious way. So I just, you know, the reduction in expense is important, but we've really, I think, sustained, if not enhanced, the quality of what we're putting out in our products across all brands.
Patrick OConnell: Understandable. If the lifetime value of the asset in terms of the useful life that you're using to amortize over, you know, multiple years, has that changed? Are you kind of continuing to assess that multi-year amortization?
Speaker Change: Understood. Is the lifetime value of the asset in terms of the useful life that you're using to amortize over, you know, multiple years, has that changed? Are you kind of continuing to assess that multi-year amortization life?
Patrick OConnell: Two pieces to that. So one, from an accounting perspective, no, there's been no changes, you know, in the amortization policy or the accounting sort of around it. But to Kristin's point, in terms of building asset value in the studio and the visibility we have into content licensing revenue this year and next, and the $225 million that's sort of out there in terms of guidance for this year, which I think we feel really good about, that certainly has a much longer tail.
Speaker Change: Two pieces to that. So one, from an accounting perspective, no, there's been no changes, you know, in the amortization policy or the accounting sort of around it. But to Kristin's point, in terms of, you know, building asset value in the studio and the visibility we have into content licensing revenue, you know, this year next and the 225 million that's sort of out there in terms of guidance for this year, which I think we feel really good about, that certainly has a much longer tail. And so we continue to build asset value in the studio as a result of, you know, us
Patrick OConnell: And so we continue to build asset value in the studio as a result of, you know, us one, at the current sort of volumes of programming at the levels of quality that Kristin mentioned as well, that there's been sort of, I would say, almost a return to quality in the licensing market, and we're seeing a lot of strength there. So we feel good about that long tail of value.
Speaker Change: One, you know, at the current sort of volumes of programming, at the levels of quality that Kristin mentioned as well. There's been sort of, I would say, almost a return to quality in the licensing market, and we're seeing a lot of strength there, so we feel good about that long tail of the value.
Operator: I understand. Thank you so much.
David Joyce: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Joyce with Seaport Research Partners. Please proceed.
Speaker Change: Understood. Thank you so much.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Joyce with Seaport Research Partners. Please proceed.
David Joyce: Thank you. A couple of things. First, on the streaming services move over to Comcast Technology Solutions. Is that going to provide any lift to the AOI, or were those already self-funding before you did that, and this just makes it even more efficient?
Speaker Change: Hello, I'm Kristin Dolan, I'm Nicholas Seibert, I'm Nicholas Seibert, I'm Nicholas Seibert, I'm Nicholas
David Joyce: Thank you. A couple things. First, on the streaming services move over the back end to Comcast Technology Solutions, is that going to provide any lift to the AOI, or were those already self-funding before you did that, and this just makes it even more efficient That was the first question.
Patrick OConnell: Hey, David, it's Patrick. I'll take that first one. Listen, from a financial perspective, you know, as is our reputation, we are continuously looking for efficiencies across the business. And so it just made a ton of sense for us as this arrangement allows us to avail ourselves of Comcast technology services, sorry, solutions, you know, scale, infrastructure, and architecture. From a timing point of view, we just signed this. You know, this is going to be a long-term deal. There will be no impact in 2024.
David Joyce: Hey David, it's Patrick. I'll take that first one. Listen, from a financial perspective, you know, as is our reputation, we are continuously looking for efficiencies across the business and so it just made a ton of sense for us as this arrangement allows us.
David Joyce: to avail ourselves of Comcast technology services, sorry, solutions.
Patrick OConnell: There will be a modest amount of, you know, onboarding and maybe some duplicative costs into 2025, but with clear paybacks over, you know, kind of 12 to 24 months. Lastly, I think it's worth noting in terms of the economics of this deal that it's both cost and capital efficient. So when we look at the NPV of this, which is, you know, clearly positive, we think about it on an operating free cash flow basis.
David Joyce: You know, scale, infrastructure, and architecture.
Speaker Change: From a timing point of view, we just signed this, you know, this is going to be a long-term deal. There will be no impact in 2024. There will be a modest amount of, you know, onboarding and maybe some duplicative costs into 2025.
Patrick OConnell: So AOI less CapEx, and we'll get savings across both buckets. And so we feel really good about this. You know, net-net, it's not just about cost savings, but also cost certainty, which I think Kristen outlined here. So more to come here in the future, but again, think about it in terms of both cost and capital efficiency going forward.
Speaker Change: but with clear paybacks over, you know, kind of 12 to 24 months.
Speaker Change: Lastly, I think it's worth noting in terms of the economics of this deal that it's both cost and capital efficient. So when we look at the NPV of this, which is, you know, clearly positive, we think about it on an operating-free cash flow basis, so AOI less CapEx, and we'll get savings across both buckets.
Speaker Change: And so we feel really good about this. You know, net-net, it's not just about cost savings, but also cost certainty, which I think Kristin outlined here. So more to come here in the future. But again, think about it in terms of both cost and capital efficiency going forward.
Kristin Dolan: Okay, that's good to hear. Secondly, on the Netflix deal, revenues would be recognized when you deliver episodes of your content. Are you making everything available at once, or is it going to be kind of spread out for a while?
Speaker Change: Okay, that's good to hear. Secondly, on the Netflix deal...
Speaker Change: Revenues would be recognized when you deliver episodes of your content. Are you making everything available at once or is it going to be kind of spread out for a while?
Kristin Dolan: Yes, so 13 of the 15 shows will be available on August 19th, 13 of the 15 series, and then we have two more premiering in the first quarter of 25 as far as revenue recognition.
Speaker Change: Yes, so 13 of the 15 shows will be available on August 19th, 13 of the 15 series, and then we have two more premiering in the first quarter of 25.
Patrick OConnell: Yes, as far as revenue recognition is concerned, actually, the full amounts can be recognized in 24 because the availability date will be just ahead of Q1 at the end of Q4, so this revenue will be realized this year, and I would say just David kind of more broadly on content licensing. We're seeing, you know, we're seeing strength in this market both domestically with the Netflix deal but also internationally, you know, with the new deal we cut with the Walking Dead titles with Sky.
Speaker Change: And as far as revenue recognition? Yes, as far as revenue recognition, actually, the full amount is going to be recognized in 2024 because the availability date will be just ahead of Q1, at the end of Q4, so this revenue will be realized this year.
David Joyce: And I would say just, David, kind of more broadly on content licensing, we're seeing strength in this market, both domestically with the Netflix deal, but also internationally, you know, with the new deal we cut with the Walking Dead titles with Sky. And so I know I mentioned in my...
Speaker Change: Commentary, you know, some revenue uplift there, and this is, you know, to Kristin's point earlier about just the quality of content that we continue to produce, and there being a little bit of a, sorry, quality, and there being sort of a flight to that quality, you know, and given how much we produce for our schedule,
Speaker Change: We're seeing demand across not just the AMC content, but also the program we produce for
Speaker Change: Acorn, High Dive, etc.
Speaker Change: as the linear universe continues to shrink.
Speaker Change: You know, the value of that licensed content in a broader ecosystem outside AMC or AMC Plus continues to increase. And so, as we've said before, we're exploring ways to capture additional value, both in terms of the hard dollars we get in licensing revenue, but also in terms of what I call sort of soft dollars. This is Kristin's point about people coming back into the AMC ecosystem to watch.
Kristen: You know, kind of...
Patrick OConnell: So we think, you know, with this new model, with the non-exclusive constructs, with meaningful brand support in some cases, it's sort of a win-win, both hard dollar licensing revenue up front and hopefully some soft dollar, you know, economics on the backend. So NetNet, this is just another way we're exercising some of our creative kinds of financial models to really sweat these programming assets as best we can.
Kristin Dolan: I have a year of the year.
Kristin Dolan: Current Season Episodes, etc.
Kristin Dolan: So we think, you know, with this new model, with the non-exclusive...
Kristin Dolan: constructs with meaningful brand support in some cases.
Kristin Dolan: It's sort of a win-win, both hard dollar licensing revenue up front and hopefully some soft dollar, you know, economics on the back end. So NetNet, this is just another way we're, you know, exercising some of our creative kind of financial models to really sweat these programming assets as best we can.
Operator: Thank you, and as a reminder to our teleaudience, if you do have a question, press star 1-1 to get in the queue. Our next question comes from the line of Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
Speaker Change: Great. Thank you very much.
Speaker Change: Thank you and as a reminder to our tele audience, if you do have a question press star 1 1 to get in the queue.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from the line of Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
Steven Cahall: Thank you, Patrick. First, I just wanted to ask you about your comment on revenue shifting around a little bit within the guidance for the year. My best guess is that this means that your licensing revenue is a little stronger, maybe after the Netflix deal announcement and the Sky deal announcement. I'm wondering if that implies that some other revenue is a little weaker, so I'd love to just understand the mix and how we might think about that carrying forward to revenue in 2025.
Steven Cahall: Thank you, Patrick. First, I just wanted to ask you about your comment on revenue shifting around a little bit within the guidance for the year.
Steven Cahall: My best guess is this means that your licensing revenue is a little stronger, maybe after the Netflix deal announcement and the Sky deal announcement. I'm wondering if that implies that some other revenue is a little weaker. So we'd love to just understand the mix.
Steven Cahall: And then to follow up on the content amortization, that's very helpful. Thank you for taking us through that. I don't think that you should report amortization. I think it's mixed in with some other expenses. So I was just wondering if you could give us a ballpark for what amortization is running at in 24, or at least how big the step up is from a dollar perspective in 25, as we kind of think about penciling out the impact of your strong free cash flow generation vis-a-vis some of these AOI dynamics to get to net leverage. Thank you.
Speaker Change: and how we might think about that carrying forward to revenue in 2025.
Speaker Change: And then to follow up on the content amortization, you know, that's very helpful. Thank you for taking us through that. I don't think that you report amortization. I think it's mixed in with some other expenses. So I was just wondering if you could give us a ballpark for what amortization is running at in 24, or at least how big the step up is.
Speaker Change: from a dollar perspective in 25 as we kind of think about penciling out the impact of your strong free cash flow generation vis-a-vis some of these AOI dynamics to get to net leverage. Thank you.
Patrick OConnell: Great. Okay, so I'll take those in order.
Speaker Change: Great, okay, so I'll take those in order first on just kind of revenue composition and the changing nature of the business here. I mean, listen, just to take a step back.
Speaker Change: You know, we are operating in a very challenging and dynamic environment.
Speaker Change: We're currently in a state of what I would characterize as a sort of disequilibrium between the linear and streaming economic regimes, right?
Speaker Change: It's making kind of forecasting a bit more challenging.
Speaker Change: The benefit we have at AMC is that we're small, nimble, creative, and we've got a really good kind of value equation in the marketplace, whether it's kind of on the wholesale or on the retail side.
Speaker Change: So that gives us a lot of kind of creative avenues to deal make, frankly, to put a point on it.
Speaker Change: And so, as I mentioned before, we're seeing, like, real positive yield on the licensing side. We're seeing momentum across our streaming products. We've got some pricing power there. Others have noted that as well. And we've got ways to sort of cut deals that may, frankly, drive additional advertising or affiliate revenue, depending on how they're cut.
Speaker Change: So, and as you've seen with the Netflix deal...
Speaker Change: You know, there continues to be a really robust market for the premium scripted programming that we produce. So, sort of, you take it all together, you know, the three pillars of our earnings guidance, the $2.4 billion in revenue, the $5.50 to $5.75 of AOI, and the year-over-year free cash flow growth, as well as the roughly $500 million of cumulative free cash flow between this year and next.
Speaker Change: is still kind of fully intact. The pieces may move around a little bit here or there, but I think you're reading it right in that we are seeing strength in the licensing market, and that's offsetting, you know, some of, you know, maybe some weakness in some of the other markets, but there's still kind of movement because
Speaker Change: We're small, nimble, and some of this creative deal-making may wind up dropping revenue in sort of other places over time. So NetNet, it's just a reflection of kind of our unique value proposition in the market and ways we can kind of creatively monetize our content. So that's on the revenue side. In terms of the amortization side.
Patrick OConnell: So that's on the revenue side. In terms of the amortization side, here's your question in terms of the nature of the disclosure there. You should think about the amortization this year as being kind of roughly in line with the cash content spend, sort of a billion-ish dollars. I won't sort of go into further detail than that. And I think what I'll do is
Speaker Change: Here's your question in terms of the nature of the disclosure there. You should think about the amortization this year as being kind of roughly in line with the cash content spend, sort of a billion-ish dollars.
Speaker Change: I won't sort of go into further detail than that. And I think what I'll do is...
Patrick OConnell: We will revisit, you know, the 25 number when we give guidance then. So I'm not going to get into any sort of forward-looking statements other than to say, obviously, we are sort of expecting some growth here given all the dynamics that I outlined in terms of just the volume of programming as well as the cadence. And frankly, you know, what show gets aired when and at what cost, et cetera. There's just a lot of moving pieces there. So I'm not going to get into the details other than to say it'll kind of grow year over year. We just want to call that out so people kind of have that in their models.
Speaker Change: We will revisit, you know, the 25 number when we give guidance then, so I'm not going to get into any sort of forward-looking statements, other than to say, obviously, we are sort of expecting some growth here, given all the dynamics that I outlined in terms of
Speaker Change: Just the volume of programming as well as the cadence, and frankly, you know, what show gets aired when and at what cost, etc. There's just a lot of moving pieces there, so I'm not going to get into the details, other than to say it'll kind of grow year over year. We just wanted to call that out so people kind of had that in their models.
Patrick OConnell: Yeah, and maybe it's a quick follow-up. I know you had a tough licensing comp in 23. It sounds like it'll be really strong with these stuff in 24. Should we expect, then, because of the revenue, you know, isn't, isn't amortized for licensing, and it's booked in the period, is that probably going to be a tough comp in 25, given the nature of kind of these landmark deals? Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker Change: But thanks for the question.
Speaker Change: Yeah, and maybe just a quick follow up. I know you had a tough licensing comp in 23. It sounds like it'll be really strong with this stuff in 24. Should we expect then, because the revenue, you know, isn't, isn't amortized for licensing, and it's booked in the period? Is it? Is that probably going to be a tough comp in 25, given the nature of kind of these landmark deals?
Patrick OConnell: It's tough to say, honestly. Given our current level of production and the strength we're seeing in the market, it feels good right now. We feel really good about 225. It's probably going to be north of that. We'll see how it goes from there.
Speaker Change: It's tough to say, honestly. I mean, like, given our current level of production and the strength they're seeing in the market, you know, it feels good right now. You know, we feel really good about 225. It's probably going to be north of that, you know, and we'll, you know, we'll see how it goes from there.
Operator: Thank you. As I see no further questions in queue, I will turn the call back to management for a closer look.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Thank you. As I see no further questions in queue, I will turn the call back to management for closing remarks.
Unknown Attendee: Thanks for joining us today. Have a good weekend. And thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Speaker Change: Thanks for joining us today. Have a good weekend.
Speaker Change: And thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Patrick OConnell: First, on just kind of revenue composition and the changing nature of the business here. I mean, listen, just to take this step back, you know, we are operating in a very challenging and dynamic environment. We're currently in a state of what I would characterize as sort of disequilibrium between the linear and streaming economic regimes, right?
Patrick OConnell: It's making kind of forecasting a bit more challenging. The benefit we have at AMC is that we're small, nibble, and creative, and we've got a really good value equation in the marketplace, whether it's kind of on the wholesale or on the retail side. So that gives us a lot of kind of creative avenues to deal with, frankly, to put a point on it. And so, as I mentioned before, we're seeing real positive yield on the licensing side.
Patrick OConnell: And so I mentioned in my commentary, you know, some revenue uplift there. And this is, you know, to Kristin's point earlier about just the quality of content that we continue to produce, and they're being a little bit of a, sorry, quality, and they're being sort of flights to that, to that quality, you know, and given how much we produce for our schedule, we're seeing demand across not just the AMC content but also the programs we produce for Acorn, High Dive, e And as the linear linear universe continues to shrink.
Patrick OConnell: We're seeing momentum across our streaming products. We've got some pricing power there, and others have noted that as well. And we've got ways to sort of cut deals that may, frankly, drive additional advertising or affiliate revenue, depending on how they're cut. So, and as you see with the Netflix deal, there continues to be a really robust market for the premium scripted programming that we produce. So, you take it all together, the three pillars of our earnings guidance, the 2.4 billion dollars in revenue, the 5.50 to 5.75 of AMY, and the year-to-year free cashflow growth as well as the 500 million, roughly 500 million dollars of cumulative free cashflow between this year and next are still kind of fully intact.
Patrick OConnell: You know, the value of that license content in a broader ecosystem outside AMC or AMC plus continues to increase. And so, as we've said before, we're exploring ways to capture additional value both in terms of the hard dollars we get in licensing revenue but also in terms of what I call sort of soft dollars. This is Kristin's point about people coming back into the AMC ecosystem to watch, you know, kind of, the kind of current season episodes, et cetera.
Patrick OConnell: The pieces may move around a little bit here and there, but I think you're reading it right in that we are seeing strength in the licensing market. And that's offsetting some of maybe some weakness in some of the other markets, but there's still kind of movement because... We're small and nimble, and some of this creative dealmaking may wind up dropping revenue in sort of other places over time. So NetNet is just a reflection of our unique value proposition in the market and ways we can kind of creatively monetize our content.