Q2 2024 Navigator Holdings Ltd Earnings Call
Speaker Change: Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Navigator Holdings conference call for the second quarter 2024 financial results.
Speaker Change: On today's call, we have Mads Peter Zacho, Chief Executive Officer.
Randy Giveans: Gary Chapman, Chief Financial Officer, Oeyvind Lindeman, Chief Commercial Officer, and myself, Randy Giveans, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Business Development in North America. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today.
Randy Giveans: As we conduct today's presentations, we'll be making various forward-looking statements.
Randy Giveans: These statements include, but are not limited to, the future expectations, plans, and prospects from both a financial and operational perspective and are based on management assumptions, forecasts, and expectations as of today's date, August 15, 2024.
Speaker Change: and are as such subject to material risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ significantly from our forward-looking information and financial forecast.
Mads Pieterzako: Additional information about these factors and assumptions are included in our annual and quarterly reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With that, I will now pass the floor to Mads Pieterzako, the company's CEO. Please go ahead, Mads.
Mads Pieterzako: Good morning and thank you all for joining this Navigator Gas Earnings Call for Q2 2024. Please turn to page number three.
Mads Pieterzako: To begin with, I'll review the key data on our Q2-24 performance, and then I'll go over the outlook for the rest of the year. Gary, Oeyvind, Randy will then bring more detail and analysis.
Speaker Change: Yet again, we generate more revenues during the quarter with operating revenues up 8% compared to both the same period in 2023 and also Q1 of this year. This was driven by both higher rates but also strong utilization.
Speaker Change: Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 set yet another navigator record of 78 million dollars which is well above the EBITDA of 69 million dollars earned in Q2 of last year.
Speaker Change: The balance sheet is strong with a robust cash position even after we repaid on our debt facilities. We continued deploying capital into our ethylene terminal expansion and we also bought back shares.
Speaker Change: The return on capital, return of capital continued in Q2 with both the 5 cents fixed dividends and the share buyback up to now in combination 25 of 25% of net income.
Speaker Change: This will continue after the Q2 results. And in addition, you probably also noted that during Q2, we bought back three and a half million shares from BW Group for a total of $51 million at $14.52 per share.
Speaker Change: Commercially, we continue pushing up rates and secured average Q2 TCE rates of $29,500, which is 9% higher than the same period last year.
Speaker Change: We achieved utilization above 93%, which is high, and more than 4% above the same period last year. We are pleased with the direction and continued improvements in our commercial results across rates and utilization, and thereby our operating revenues.
Speaker Change: Throughput at our joint venture Ethylene Export Terminal was down at 231,000 tons for the quarter. And Oeyvind and Randy will provide a bit more context to this in a few minutes.
Speaker Change: The expansion of the terminal continues on track for completion in Q4 2024 and with progress payments that are continuing.
Speaker Change: We have for some time now talked about the significant opportunities lying ahead for Navigator with the transportation of CO2 and clean ammonia, so we are very pleased to have announced progress on both fronts.
Speaker Change: Within Ammonia, we've entered into an MOU with Unipower, and within Ammonia, we've committed a small but important investment into 1008.
Speaker Change: None of these will absorb or produce significant cash flows in the near term, but both are paving the way for new, potentially very significant markets for Navigator.
Speaker Change: We remain confident about the outlook for our business for both the near, mid, and long-term. We expect utilization to remain near 90% in Q3, and we continue to renew our expiring time charters at higher rates.
Speaker Change: So with solid demand for transportation on handy-sized gas carriers, we see older vessels being sold out of international trade and limited supply from new buildings in our segment. We expect this to continue.
Speaker Change: So with that, I'll just pass it over to you, Gary, now, so you can provide a little bit more detail on the financial result. Go ahead.
Gary: Thank you Mads and very good morning or afternoon to everyone. Our second quarter 2024 results have continued our progress with again some really positive results and another new record high just at EBITDA as Mads mentioned.
Gary: On slide six, our total operating revenue was $146.7 million in the second quarter of 2024, with strong utilization of 93.4% against 89.3% for the first quarter of 2024.
Gary: and boosted by still stronger time charter equivalent rates that were on average $29,550 per day in the second quarter.
Gary: compared to $28,339 per day in the first quarter of 2024 and $27,241 per day in the second quarter of last year, 2023.
Gary: In the second quarter of 2024, our vessel operating expenses were held steady at $43.5 million, despite the larger number of vessel dry docks that are taking place in 2024, and depreciation was principally in line with the previous quarter at $33.3 million.
Gary: We incurred some additional non-recurring general and administrative costs in the quarter related primarily to the secondary public offering of 7 million common shares by the BW Group of which we concurrently bought back three and a half million of those shares and they were cancelled.
Gary: In the second quarter, we also saw a swing in our non-cash unrealized movements on our non-designated derivative instruments compared to the first quarter of 2024. This being related to movements in the market valuation of our long-term interest rate swaps over the quarter.
Gary: And which movement turned negative, thus impacting our accounting net income figure by just over 4.7 million, but which had no impact on our cash or liquidity.
Gary: Our income tax line reflects current and mainly deferred taxes, primarily derived from our investment and share of profits in our ethylene export terminal at Morgan's Point.
Gary: and overall net income attributable to stockholders of Navigator Holdings.
Gary: was $23.2 million.
Gary: with a basic earnings per share of $0.32.
Gary: and adjusted net income, which excludes those unrealized gains and losses on derivative instruments and any vessel sales with 24.8 million or 34 cents per share.
Gary: Ethylene terminal throughput volumes in Q2 2024 were 230,857 tonnes, resulting in a contribution of $4.7 million from our Ethylene Terminal Joint Venture, and Randy will talk some more about the terminal shortly. As Mads mentioned,
Randy Giveans: Our new record-adjusted EBITDA was $77.6 million in the second quarter, coming from Robust, available
Randy Giveans: Ownership and earnings days, which translated into strong vessel utilisation, then combined with generally increased charter rates.
Randy Giveans: Our balance sheet, shown on slide 7, remains very strong with a cash and cash equivalents balance of over $138 million at June 30th, 2024.
Randy Giveans: and that's despite paying out 87.9 million dollars.
Randy Giveans: for scheduled loan repayments and share buybacks in the second quarter, plus $16 million in progress payments for our Ethelene Terminal Expansion project.
Randy Giveans: Our total available liquidity at June 30th 2024 was 167 million and we currently anticipate further robust cash generation from our operations in the third quarter of 2024.
Randy Giveans: As already noted, as part of our share buybacks, we repurchased and then cancelled 3.5 million of our common shares in a secondary offering from the BW Group in June at a cost of $14.52 per share, which was a total cost of $50.8 million.
Randy Giveans: We believe this transaction was highly accretive to the company given our underlying net asset value is currently over $25 per share and we were pleased to be able to complete it.
Randy Giveans: On slide 8, we were also pleased to report that on August 9th, 2024, we entered into a new 6-year Secured Term Loan and Revolving Credit facility of up to $147.6 million, which is to be used to refinance our existing March 2019 Secured Loan facility that matures in March 2025.
Randy Giveans: to fund the repurchase in October 2024 of the Navigator Aurora, pursuant to our existing October 2019 sale and leaseback arrangement, and for general corporate and working capital purposes.
Randy Giveans: The facility releases up to $45 million in additional liquidity to the company, and we've negotiated improved terms over our existing 2019 facility, including a new lower margin at 190 basis points, and which rate is significantly below the cost of our existing sale and leaseback arrangement.
Randy Giveans: We're also very pleased to say that the margin of 190 basis points includes the sustainability linked adjustment to five basis points, reflecting our continued commitment to concentrating our efforts on the environmental impact of our fleet.
Speaker Change: We then have two debt maturities, our unsecured bonds and another bank facility, both due in just over one year's time, in September 2025, which refinancings were already planning and which may result in positive liquidity events for the company. And we'll provide more updates on those as they progress.
Speaker Change: On slide 9, our leverage remains very comfortable with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.3 times for the 12 months to June 30th, 2024, and our net debt capitalization is just 31.2% as of June 30th, 2024.
Speaker Change: We're continuing to reduce our debt with more than $100 million of average annual scheduled debt amortization payments during 2024 through 2027, as you can see on the graph, and within our refinancing work streams, we're looking to target further reductions in the average cost of our debt.
Speaker Change: We do expect that some of our cash will be needed for the remainder of our ethylene terminal expansion project unless and until we finance the project later in the year.
Speaker Change: and as well for other projects and investments that we're considering that will enhance shareholder returns.
Speaker Change: As we mentioned in previous earnings calls, there are a number of projects that we're actively looking at, but meantime we'll continue to manage our business carefully, reduce our debt, look to our capital distributions and share buybacks, and remain an active steward of the business's capital.
Speaker Change: On slide 10, we outline our latest estimated cash breakeven for 2024 at $20,800 per day, which shows a slight increase of $100 per day compared to the previous quarter estimate, but which figure is all in and includes our scheduled debt repayments and our heavier drive-up schedule this year.
Speaker Change: Even considering this, with such a break-even level relative to today's charter rates, recalling our average TCE for the second quarter of 2024 was $29,550 per day.
Speaker Change: It will enable Navigator to generate a very positive EBITDA with significant headroom throughout the shipping cycle.
Speaker Change: As we like to present on the right is our daily OPEX guidance for 2024 across our differing vessel size segments, ranging from our smaller vessels to our larger, more complex ethylene vessels.
Speaker Change: and following is guidance for the third quarter of 2024 as well as updates for the full year across FESALOPEX, general and admin cost depreciation and net interest expense, all of which are materially unchanged from the guidance given in our first quarter 2024 presentation.
Speaker Change: Slide 11 outlines our historic quarterly adjusted EBITDA, showing this second quarter's record high figure and demonstrating yet again the very positive and consistent rates results we have been able to report for many quarters now.
Speaker Change: And despite a currently narrowing ethylene arbitrage, we expect this trend to broadly continue in the third quarter of 2024.
Speaker Change: On the right side of slide 11, we show our historic adjusted EBITDA bar for 2023, last 12 months adjusted EBITDA, and an annualized adjusted EBITDA based on this second quarter result.
Speaker Change: In addition, the EBITDA bars, then to the right, provide some sensitivity and illustrate an increase in adjusted EBITDA of approximately $18 million for each $1,000 incremental increase in average time chart equivalent rates per day.
Speaker Change: Then finally for me on slide 12, an update on our vessel's scheduled dry docks.
Speaker Change: We have 18 vessels scheduled for dry docking during 2024, of which six were completed in the first half of the year.
Speaker Change: With an expected total for the 18 vessels of 504 off-high days and total dry docking capex anticipated at $29.3 million, all of which is scheduled, fully costed and included in our cash flow plans.
Speaker Change: As we've set out before, some further detail on the expected timing and cost of these dry docks is shown below, noting that three more vessels are scheduled to have completed their dry dock by the end of August , leaving seven more to complete during the remainder of 2024.
Speaker Change: Also, as an important reminder, we're taking these drive opportunities to install energy saving technologies on those vessels at a total cost of around $4.8 million, with many of these technologies having a very short payback period.
Speaker Change: Then finally, we also provide here some guidance on 2025 and 2026 scheduled dry docks for those that are interested, which guidance remains very similar to previous figures we disclosed.
Speaker Change: Overall, Navigator has had a very good quarter both operationally and financially with record adjusted EBITDA, high TCE rates and utilisation. We've completed one key step in our refinancing plan and we're looking forward to keeping our momentum for the remainder of 2024 and beyond.
Speaker Change: So with all that said, I'll now hand over to Oeyvind to talk about our commercial position and outlook.
Oeyvind: Thank you, Gary, and good morning and afternoon all. Let's turn to slide 14.
Oeyvind: Our earning states continue to be strongly supported by ammonia and petrochemical shipping demand.
Oeyvind: We have recently had an uptick in vessels carrying ammonia and we are now back up to employing double-digit 10 vessels in this growing trade.
Oeyvind: We expect demand for the ammonia shipping to continue to be strong for the foreseeable future.
Oeyvind: Significant growth for ammonia transportation is forecasted towards the end of the decade.
Oeyvind: And we are proactively positioning ourselves today, both on the maritime side, as well as the infrastructure side, to be a major mover and shaker in this emerging market.
Oeyvind: Randy will shortly give some color to our recent Clean Ammonia announcement.
Randy Giveans: But your chemical demand remains relatively robust, providing 45% of our total earnings days.
Speaker Change: U.S. exports of ethylene and ethane are the major commodities within this category.
Speaker Change: It is also nice to see that butadiene exports from Europe to Asia has returned. Long-haul butadiene provides positive support to the semi-refrigerated part of our fleet.
Speaker Change: The second quarter utilization at 93.4% is unseasonally strong. In fact, it is the highest second quarter utilization we've had, we've seen for a very long time.
Speaker Change: The top left graph on page 15 is illustrating this point.
Speaker Change: The green dotted line represents our 2024 utilization today.
Speaker Change: The gray line represents our five-year average utilization, and the gray shaded area represents our historic highs and lows throughout those years.
Speaker Change: And as you can see, we're pretty happy with the counter cyclicality for our second quarter. And the high levels continued into the third quarter with July coming in at just above 92%. It's well above the average, which puts us in a good trajectory for the next month.
Speaker Change: The bottom right graph is showing our fully refrigerated vessels.
Speaker Change: They're all on time charters and are all employed in the ammonia trade, and we expect that to continue.
Speaker Change: The bottom left graph is showing the employment of our semi-refrigerated feed.
Speaker Change: Here, these are mostly employed in regional distribution of LPGs.
Speaker Change: These vessels are also recently attracting extra demand from both ammonia and petrochemical customers such as Butadiene.
Speaker Change: The top right graph is showing 100% dedication to petrochemical cargos from our ethylene-capable fleet.
Speaker Change: The vast majority of the cargoes are exactly that, ethylene and ethane exports from the U.S.
Speaker Change: The utilization for the ethylene fleet is, however, somewhat under pressure in the near term due to a couple of external factors, which we will address on page 60.
Speaker Change: Before we get into the short-term impact of Hurricane Beryl, on page 16, it is important to highlight the continued rise of natural gas liquids production in the United States of America.
Speaker Change: This is usually positive across the board. One barrel of natural gas liquids production typically consists of 88% of gases that we do transport on board our vessels. And as you can see on the graph to the left, it's on the rise.
Speaker Change: Excess ethylene production should translate to competitive ethylene production and price.
Speaker Change: Fundamentally, this is still the case in North America. However, there is one element unique to the region that sometimes causes disruptions, and that is the hurricane season.
Speaker Change: Now this year, Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Houston area beginning of July. It caused major power shortages for many, many local residents. It also disrupted the production of ethylene.
Speaker Change: Most of the ethylene producers reduced capacity in anticipation of Beryl.
Speaker Change: They can easily ramp up again, but we can see a clear short-term impact.
Speaker Change: The graph on the right will give you an idea of the issue. The light blue area, which represents U.S. ethylene production shutdowns, peaked.
Speaker Change: When Beryl Made Landfall
Speaker Change: And at the same time, which is pretty logical, U.S. ethylene inventory levels showed in the dark blue line hit a low.
Speaker Change: While we and industry experts forecast both production and inventory levels to revert back to normal over the next couple months, the laws of supply and demand are at play, influencing ethylene pricing in the near term.
Speaker Change: Updated AdLib prices are illustrated on page 17.
Speaker Change: Here we can see the impact clearly by following the grey line in the left-hand graph.
Speaker Change: The U.S. ethylene price has increased by about $150 a ton recently.
Speaker Change: Asia pricing remains flat. $150 less available arbitrage is challenging for exports economics to Asia.
Speaker Change: This is why we see most of the current ethylene volumes being shipped to Europe as the landed price is on par with Asia but requires less freight to service.
Speaker Change: Whilst the ethylene price has risen, the price of ethane has fallen. It is dirt cheap. Historically, ethane exports pick up any slack from ethylene, and we see increasing proportion of ethane cargoes on our fleet, which is good.
Speaker Change: The updated Clarkson Broker 12 month time charter assessment for the various segments are shown on page 18.
Speaker Change: Compared to last quarter, the very large gas carriers have reduced the most.
Speaker Change: A small adjustment is seen on the ethylene vessels due to the short-term issues we just discussed.
Speaker Change: and the other handi-sized segments are seeing a small uptake.
Speaker Change: It's all in all pretty robust.
Speaker Change: The fundamentals remain very healthy. As mentioned in the outlook by Mads, our time-charted renewals have all been completed and are being completed at higher levels compared to last year.
Speaker Change: Turning to page 19, the handisized fleet supply remains unchanged. It has 7% on order and 21% of the existing vessels are about 20 years of age. All this is very manageable.
Speaker Change: Apart from the short-term after effects of Hurricane Beryl and the increase in U.S. ethylene price, the handy-sized fundamentals are robust, and we have entered Q3 on a general positive note.
Speaker Change: There are many exciting growth projects in the pipeline, and Randy will talk to some of these right now. So, Randy, over to you.
Randy Giveans: Thank you, Oeyvind. So yeah, following up on several announcements we made in recent months, we want to provide some additional details on those developments regarding some of the announcements.
Speaker Change: With that, turn to the next slide, 21.
Speaker Change: We're pleased to announce our return of capital for the second quarter of 2024, but before we get to that, I want to first highlight that during the second quarter, we repurchased and canceled 117,000 common shares of NBGS in the open market.
Speaker Change: totaling $2 million for an average price of a little over $17 per share.
Speaker Change: Additionally, in June , we repurchased and cancelled 3.5 million common shares of Navigator directly from BW Group for $51 million, or $14.52 per share.
Speaker Change: To note, this transaction was done at a discount to the prevailing market price, had no impact to our free float, and has actually helped increase our trading liquidity throughout this summer.
Speaker Change: So now looking ahead, in line with our recently announced return of capital policy and the illustrative table below, we're returning 25% net income or $5.8 million to shareholders during this third quarter.
Speaker Change: The board has declared a cash dividend of $0.05 per share that's payable on September 24th to all shareholders of record as of September 3rd, equating to a quarterly cash dividend payment of $3.5 million.
Speaker Change: Additionally, with our shares still trading well below our NAV of well over $25 per share, we'll use the variable portion of the return of capital policy for share buybacks.
Speaker Change: As such, we expect to repurchase another $2.3 million of NBHGS common shares between now and quarter end, such that the dividend and the share of repurchases together equal that 25% of net income, $5.8 million.
Speaker Change: At the end of the past few years and especially again this past June , returning capital to shareholders will remain a core priority for us.
Speaker Change: Looking at the next slide, 22, following up on our previous announcement regarding the expansion of our ethylene export terminal, the project continues to progress nicely.
Speaker Change: Engineering is now complete, constructions will underway, and the expected completion date remains mid-December, 2024, so four months from now.
Speaker Change: The project remains on budget with total capital contributions required from us to be around $130 million. To date, we've paid $59 million and the remaining CapEx is expected to be paid from cash on hand until potential new financing agreements are completed later this year.
Speaker Change: And as you can see on the bottom left chart.
Speaker Change: Thruput remained near nameplate capacity throughout June , but there was a dip in July , and that's due to seven ethylene crackers along the U.S. Gulf Coast experiencing planned or unplanned outages, coupled with the negative impacts of Hurricane Beryl.
Speaker Change: Now, as you've seen in recent years, the third quarter is seasonally the softest quarter for throughput, but the contracts are take or pay. So the annual cash flow over time remains firm despite quarterly movements.
Speaker Change: Now, as for contracting the expansion volumes, the second and larger new offtake for the multi-year contract is likely to be signed in the coming weeks as the customer has agreed to the commercial terms, and we continue to expect that additional capacity will be contracted in the coming months.
Speaker Change: Now turning to our two most recent press releases, starting on slide 23.
Speaker Change: Our Blue Streets CO2 Joint Venture with Boomi Armada remains active in supporting the carbon capture and storage efforts in the UK and North Sea.
Speaker Change: specifically targeting stranded emitters with no pipeline takeaway capacity. Now as seen in the bottom picture, our primary component of this joint venture will be to transport the CO2 from the shore-based storage tanks to the floating storage and injection units, FSIU.
Speaker Change: Last month we entered into an MOU with Uniper to help meet the UK government's aim of decarbonizing the power sector by 2030.
Speaker Change: The partnership has agreed to collaborate to explore the feasibility of implementing a jetty moored floating liquid CO2 storage facility and liquid CO2 carrier solution for the export of CO2 from Uniper's proposed carbon capture project on the Isle of Grain in the UK.
Speaker Change: By bringing the right people to the table, we can leverage our collective expertise to design a sustainable and long-term CO2 shipping and storage value chain, and this adds value and reduces environmental impact, aligning perfectly with our sustainability goals.
Speaker Change: On slide 24, after a deep vetting process and driven by our firm belief in the immense growth potential of clean ammonia, we recently announced a $2.5 million co-investment alongside lead investor Addis Clean Energy into 1008 Energy.
Speaker Change: An early stage clean ammonia developer with an export project along the U.S. Gulf Coast of Texas.
Speaker Change: The first phase of the project will consist of a single train producing 1.4 million tons per year of ultra-low carbon ammonia with an expected completion date in late 29 or early 2030.
Speaker Change: This initial investment is development capital for the Pre-Feed and Feed Studies, and it gives us an option to make a larger investment at FID of up to $100 million.
Speaker Change: of Preferred Equity towards construction of the terminal and export infrastructure for the project, with potential further investments in subsequent expansions.
Speaker Change: Now, as evidenced by our numerous vessels currently transporting ammonia, our recent investment in the Zane Fuel Solutions for ammonia bunkering, our approval and principle for an ammonia-fueled vessel.
Speaker Change: and our recently performed first ship-to-ship transfer of ammonia. Ammonia is all ready and will continue to be a key focus for Navigator Gaps.
Speaker Change: and the U.S. Gulf will be a key producing region of clean ammonia.
Speaker Change: which will then obviously be exported for high demand areas around the world, such as Asia for co-firing coal power plants, Europe for cracking into hydrogen, and then using for power generation.
Speaker Change: and across the globe as a clean bunkering fuel for ships, as well as to displace conventionally produced ammonia-based fertilizer. So we're very excited to take this first step into a project that should be a meaningful contributor to our long-term ammonia business.
Speaker Change: Also, both the Blue Street Joint Venture and this 1008 investment are helping us build some optionality and to ensure a more stable cash flow in the coming years.
Speaker Change: Finishing on slide 25, I want to personally invite all of you to our upcoming 2024 Analyst Investor Day here in Houston, Texas in a few months from now.
Speaker Change: On Tuesday afternoon, November 12th, we'll be hosting our Morgan's Point Tours at the Ethylene Export Terminal and one of our vessels.
Speaker Change: So just take a look at that picture to the right and imagine yourself climbing aboard that beautiful ethylene carrier. Wow, later that evening the management team and some members of our board of directors will host a dinner for our analysts and investors.
Speaker Change: The next morning on November 13th, we'll host some presentations covering current market trends, a financial update, as well as our medium-term strategy, then we'll have a lunch and an appreciation event for all of our analysts, shareholders, customers, partners.
Speaker Change: And fortunately, unlike today's heat, the weather will certainly be better in mid-November. So hope to see you then.
Speaker Change: With that, I'll now turn it back over to Mads for some closing remarks before we get to Q&A.
Mads Pieterzako: Good. Thanks, Randy. And yeah, so I'll just summarize today's presentation. And when we look at the financial results for Q2, it was great to see that we posted record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $78 million and adjusted net income of $25.
Speaker Change: We have the strongest balance sheet in the company's history as illustrated by the low leverage ratios and the robust cash position and we'll continue to pay quarterly cash dividends and buy back shares.
Speaker Change: And as you saw, we did a large share buyback of 51 million or 5% of shares out directly from BW in June.
Speaker Change: We pushed forward and completed our refinancing project with strong appetite from new and existing lenders.
Speaker Change: And if you look at our shipping business, the average fleet utilization was 93% for Q2, and the average TCE rate for our vessels just above 29,500 per day. So that's the highest that we've seen in more than eight years.
Speaker Change: Semi and fully refrigerated time charter extensions continue at higher levels compared to the same period last year. And the supply picture remains attractive with a small handy-sized order book and an aging global fleet.
Speaker Change: On the energy infrastructure, ethylene export volumes through the ethylene export terminal stay at firm levels and the terminal expansion is on time and on budget with completion set for end of this year.
Speaker Change: Blue Streak entered into a memorandum of understanding with Unipower to help meet the UK government's aim of decarbonizing the power sector. And lastly, we just announced the $2.5 million co-investment alongside lead investor Atis, clean energy into 1008 Energy.
Speaker Change: So as you can see here, it's been a really busy summer. We've remained committed to developing Navigator at a high pace, and I hope you can see that all the initiatives that we are putting in front of you here, that they are very well aligned with the strategy that we previously discussed with you.
Speaker Change: So I say just thank you very much for listening in and back to you, Randy.
Randy Giveans: Thank you, Mads. So yeah, Operator will now open the lines for some Q&A. So to raise your hand, press star 9, and then you'll have to unmute yourself by pressing star 6, or if using Zoom, just use the raise hand function, which I see one here. So first question, your line is open.
Randy Giveans: Great. Is it me? Can you hear me? This is Ben Nolan from AT&T.
Ben Nolan: All right, appreciate it. Thanks, guys. So I've got a couple questions. The first is,
Ben Nolan: Oeyvind, you were talking about the percentage of the fleet that's doing, the substantially larger percentage of the fleet that's doing ammonia now.
Speaker Change: It's curious, is that a function of there just being a lot more ammonia being
Speaker Change: being transported around the world? Or is it you're taking share maybe from other categories or have trading patterns changed? Just curious sort of how you think about
Speaker Change: appreciating that longer term there's going to be a more ammonia but but today what's driving that that push into a greater percentage of the business being ammonia?
Speaker Change: Yeah, 10, 10 vessels trading ammonia is quite significant. It's great for the business. It's not that we are taking market share from anybody else.
Speaker Change: But there are changing trade lanes requiring handy-sized vessels because they are exactly that.
Speaker Change: for Plugging Holes, Servicing, Optimizing the Different Producers and Consumers of Ammonia.
Speaker Change: And it's also a growing market, the world needs more fertilizers in general, so new plants are coming up.
Speaker Change: So it is increasing growth, which we are participating in and taking advantage of.
Speaker Change: And that will continue. As you mentioned, the great significant growth will come in a few years. But I think we're starting from a great place today with 10 vessels, which is quite a lot for any ship owner to be servicing that emerging industry.
Speaker Change: Okay, all right, appreciate that. And then I guess for my second question,
Speaker Change: When thinking about the new CO2 businesses and the new ammonia infrastructure, you know, appreciating that those are early days and you don't have quite line of sight on exactly how those will play out yet. But as you think about...
Speaker Change: planning and strategically where you are. What's the
Speaker Change: What do you think is a realistic timeframe under which you think actually there would be capital calls and need to deploy capital? I mean, is that a 25 kind of event or are we...
Speaker Change: a number of years away from sort of those, those really sort of being
Speaker Change: Greenlit and Capital needing to be put to work.
Speaker Change: We have a pretty active business development portfolio and there are also a number of projects that we haven't talked about because they are not ready to be talked about because they haven't materialized as 1008 and then Blue Streak have.
Speaker Change: When you look at 1008, I think we've been clear on the timeline here that we're talking 29 to 30 before the operations of the facility there, and that means that the shipping investments don't need to happen anytime soon. So that'll be matched to ensure that they are in place at the time of exporting the first ammonia if that goes ahead.
Speaker Change: I think when it comes to Blue Streak, it's also here a little bit uncertain exactly when it's going to happen. It's going to be pushed towards the end of this decade. But even then, there may be other projects that come into life on the ammonia side or on the CO2 side that can have a shorter fuse than what we're just describing here.
Speaker Change: So it could well be that there would be new building contracts to be matched against chartering contracts with customers on the other side, potentially long-term contracts that would happen for ammonia or for CO2 already within the next year or two.
Speaker Change: All right. I appreciate it. Thank you guys.
Speaker Change: And just to make clear here, Ben, that we would not be building those ships on speculation. I mean, we would be going into the ammonia segment and into the CO2 segment if we have credible counterparts for long-term contracts.
Ben Nolan: Understood. Yeah. Thank you.
Ben Nolan: Thank you, Ben.
Speaker Change: Next caller, your line should be open.
Speaker Change: I see your hand up here, Omar.
Omar: You guys have reported just another strong quarter, it looks like it just continues.
Speaker Change: with just the strength and earnings in cash flow generation. So, you know, nice to see that.
Speaker Change: You know, the average target rate at 29,550, you know, it continues to climb, and it's up from 28.3 from the first quarter, you know, it went higher, despite maybe some of the indices suggesting that term rates came off just slightly, but then also you had
Speaker Change: VLGC is coming off. I know obviously you're not in that market and you're carrying a lot more specialized cargo than just
Speaker Change: Straight up propane, but we did see the rates come off for the big ships. So
Speaker Change: You know, historically, you know, we would have thought maybe rates would have, you would have felt some pressure in the handy segment.
Speaker Change: but you didn't, and in fact, rates went higher. So just wanted to get a sense from you, you know, what drove that?
Speaker Change: I guess relative outperformance on the part of your fleet.
Omar: I think, Omar, we are not 100% insular to what is happening in the VLGC market, however, we do trade on different premises and fundamentals.
Speaker Change: On the LPG side, which is the direct competition with VLGCs because that is what they carry.
Speaker Change: only.
Speaker Change: There are completely different trades. So our, we showed on a graph there on our semi-refrigerated side.
Speaker Change: Most of our vessels with that capability are trading LPG, and that is regional distribution.
Speaker Change: and that has not seen.
Speaker Change: the decline or pressure as you have, you just mentioned that the VLGCs have. So it's more to do with the trade, not necessarily that there's direct competition.
Speaker Change: from above at the moment. And we're not really seeing that into July either. So that is positive.
Speaker Change: Okay, thanks Oeyvind. And then just kind of following up on your your comments in the presentation, you walk through the impact of Hurricane Beryl and that's led to a bit of a correction on the inventories.
Speaker Change: that you expect it to kind of smooth out or normalize as we get to winter. I guess just in terms of impact here in the third quarter, how do you think that affects both the shipping business and then the terminal business?
Randy Giveans: I think on the terminal side, as Randy mentioned, they're all on take or pay. So with time, it shouldn't really matter. Now, of course, from the shipping side, we are interested in physical volumes being exported.
Speaker Change: And if you see on one of the throughput slides that we had, July is very low.
Speaker Change: However, our utilization across the fleet was above 92%, much higher than average for that period of time.
Speaker Change: What is really happening is that we are not exporting ethylene on the ships. We are doing some, and that goes to Europe. However, ethane is generally picking up the slack.
Speaker Change: And if we have the freight hat on, we'll take ethane any day. And it's a great cargo connecting the U.S. with the world in terms of petrochemical production. So that is what is really happening. On the ethylene side,
Speaker Change: We think it's a very short-term thing. There was no damages at any of the crackers because of the hurricane. So these operators are pretty savvy. They turn them down in anticipation to avoid any damage. So they can easily turn it back up, which they are slowly doing now in August.
Speaker Change: So that will correct itself, and you'll see ethylene exports declined in parallel with that. That is our expectation. So it was a short-term blip because of this hurricane thing.
Speaker Change: Okay, thank you.
Speaker Change: And maybe just one final one, Randy, for...
Speaker Change: to you perhaps. You mentioned obviously the terminal expansion and that's underway.
Speaker Change: and you entered into the first offtake agreement and expect the second one here fairly soon, so congrats on that.
Speaker Change: Just in general, are you able to give any color on that first offtake agreement in terms of whether duration or portion of the facility? And then should we assume kind of profitability in line with the existing contracts? Yeah, any color you can give.
Speaker Change: Yeah, it's multiple years, right? So, it's not just a one-year contract, but we don't want to go into the specific duration. Pricing is at least as good as it was for that extension. And then in terms of values, it's slightly more than the initial, but again, won't give you the number, but the size of it has gone up a little bit from what they had been up to. So, again, the next one's going to be bigger and longer as well. And then we expect incremental off-take contracts by the time the completion is set into mid-December. So, by January, when a lot of these off-take contracts are going to commence,
Speaker Change: We expect the majority of the expansion capacity to be sold.
Speaker Change: And again, one more color.
Speaker Change: I want you to try me.
Speaker Change: So, all the take or pay contracts, if they actually take the cargoes, we get that revenue in the quarter. If they don't, there is some deficiency lag, so they might have a quarter or two to make up for it.
Speaker Change: So it's not a one for one in terms of a take or pay, but over time, as Oeyvind was saying, we will recoup that kind of deficiency earnings.
Speaker Change: for The Terminal.
Speaker Change: Thanks for watching, and don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to our channel.
Speaker Change #119: Okay, got it. Thanks, Randy, for that color. Oeyvind, thank you. Good job, guys. I'll turn it over.
Speaker Change #120: Appreciate it no more.
Speaker Change: Next caller, I think your line should be open. To your hand here, Clement.
Speaker Change: Thank you for watching, and don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to our channel.
Speaker Change: [inaudible]
Speaker Change: Oh, you might still be on mute here.
Speaker Change: Wait, sorry, can you hear me now? Yes, we can hear you. Sorry about that. Thank you for taking my questions.
Speaker Change: I wanted to start by asking about the 1008 investment. You will receive the option to invest up to $100 million in preferred to construct the initial phase, but on potential further investments, would those be as equity or once again as preferred?
Speaker Change: And secondly, will you have any kind of preference to experiment the ammonia volumes with your vessels?
Speaker Change: Yep, I'll start. Mads, Oeyvind, please join. So, all right, for the first...
Speaker Change: investment up to a hundred million dollars that will be taken at FID so again the 2.5 million is for the pre-feed and feed studies.
Speaker Change: Which again, back to Ben's question, should take about two years, so really the next capital deployed into 1008 would likely be 26, and then it would extend throughout the construction period, say three years through 29, so that's $100 million.
Speaker Change: for incremental investments. Corrected, it could be further on the preferred side, it's kind of a fixed return.
Speaker Change: potentially some equity upside to it. So
Speaker Change: We have a lot of optionality with this project. And that was one of the key drivers for this initial investment was on the optionality. And in terms of the molecules, yes, we certainly would like to move it similar to what we do with our ethylene export terminal, right? We don't necessarily, we don't produce any ethylene, but we liquefy it and then we move a lot of it.
Speaker Change: So similarly, on this terminal, on the clean ammonia side, you know, certainly we want to help in the terminaling and liquefaction, and also on the transportation. But if Oeyvind or Mads want to add some more color, please do.
Speaker Change: That's very straightforward. So some of the optics that we are discussing to prefer to have the molecules, the ammonia, the clean ammonia delivered to their site.
Speaker Change: And that is where Navigator and 108 comes into perfect play.
Speaker Change: whereby together we can actually provide that service and economics.
Speaker Change: that then will include vessels, navigator vessels. So that is very exciting. Likewise, if the offtaker or the user, the end user would like to buy from the terminal itself,
Speaker Change: Then, of course, we are in an excellent position to align with them to discuss what makes more sense logistically to get it to their place. So, all in all, pretty good stuff.
Speaker Change: [inaudible]
Speaker Change: That'd be very helpful.
Speaker Change: And I have another question more on the modeling side. You've already discussed that throughput on the affiline export terminal will come under pressure throughout the quarter but the take or pay contract should soften the blow. Could you remind us what's kind of the quarterly run rate on the take or pay contracts?
Speaker Change: [inaudible]
Speaker Change: Yes, so in a range of what we kind of have shown previously, four to six million. But again, we will not collect all of that real time.
Speaker Change: meeting in three quarter in three Q as you can in July.
Speaker Change: If there are, there will be some deficiencies, we won't collect those deficiencies, likely in the third quarter, right? It will take another quarter, maybe two quarters beyond that. So,
Speaker Change: On an average basis, it's five-ish million dollars. You can look at our chart here kind of on a historical basis. But does that mean in a single quarter it might be three and it might be seven? Absolutely. So if you look over the long haul, maybe four to six is a good range, but it could certainly go below or above that depending on the deficiency timing.
Speaker Change: Thanks for the color. That's all from me. Thank you for taking my questions.
Speaker Change #100: Thank you.
Speaker Change #100: I believe there's someone else in the Q&A. Oh, here we go. I see your hand. Christopher from Arctic. How are you?
Speaker Change #102: Hello, I'm good. Thank you. What about yourself?
Speaker Change #103: All well, thank you.
Speaker Change #104: So, can you just shed some light on the throughput? I'm not sure if I understood correctly, but what was the terminal that you also operate impacted by the hurricane? And sort of...
Speaker Change #105: If that's the case, how long do we see it take for volumes to ramp up? Because we've seen on the VLDC side that it takes some time.
Speaker Change #105: Yeah, Oeyvind, you want to? Yeah, I mean, just to be clear, the terminal itself, no damage, no issue because of the barrel hurricane. The issue lies with the wider production system capacity in the area. So they've reduced capacity, production capacity.
Speaker Change #106: during July. But at the same time, of course, there was domestic demand, and that ate dug into the inventory.
Speaker Change #107: So that caused the ethylene price to increase.
Speaker Change #108: discouraging ethylene exports to Asia, but European exports remain. So as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, no physical damage.
Speaker Change #109: These producers are ramping up because the margins are pretty good. Ethane is super cheap. It makes sense for them to run as hard as they can.
Speaker Change #110: So, it's not a BLGC parallel, it's a petrochemical thing.
Speaker Change #110: Thanks for watching, and don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to our channel.
Speaker Change #111: Okay, perfect. And in terms of the ammonia investment that you're potentially doing, can you share some color on sort of how you're
Speaker Change #112: looking to price such a preferred equity and you also mentioned that it may be sort of further investments. So can you also take part of sort of the equity in itself so that you get sort of equity upside and not sort of
Speaker Change #112: All the bond type of investment into the facility or
Speaker Change #112: Production Facilitator
Speaker Change #112: I can start on that. In terms of the preferred equity return, we have not disclosed that, but it's
Speaker Change #113: Well, of our cost of capital. We can probably just leave it at that. In terms of equity, the initial investment, the $2.5 million
Speaker Change #113: There's somewhat of an equity component to that, but for the larger investment
Speaker Change #113: We probably
Speaker Change #113: Preferred, pun intended there, just with the stable cash flows that that provides instead of taking commodity risk or some kind of equity exposure to the project on a larger level.
Speaker Change #114: So for the initial $2.5 million, there's some equity exposure for the larger, up to $100 million, that would be a fixed preferred rate, again, above our cost of capital for sure. And then incremental investments.
Speaker Change #115: Correct. It could be a combination of preferred equity, maybe some equity, maybe we take some commodity risk upside. So a lot of options in a few years from now.
Speaker Change #116: Perfect. That's all for me. Thanks.
Speaker Change #117: Thank you.
Speaker Change #118: I believe that ends our Q&A. So, Mads, final comments.