Q3 2024 Chegg Inc Earnings Call
and many more. Thank you. Thank you.
[inaudible]
Speaker Change: Greetings and welcome to Chegg Incorporated third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are on a listen-only mode.
Speaker Change: A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Tracey Ford, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
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Tracey Ford: Good afternoon. Thank you for joining CHEG's third quarter 2024 conference call. On today's call are Nathan Schultz, President and CEO, and David Longo, Chief Financial Officer.
Tracey Ford: A copy of our earnings press release along with our investor presentation is available on our investor relations website, investor.chegg.com.
Tracey Ford: A replay of this call will also be available on our website. We routinely post information on our website and intend to make important announcements on our Media Center website at chegg.com slash mediacenter. We encourage you to make use of these resources.
Speaker Change: Before we begin, I would like to point out that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events, including the future financial and operating performance of the company.
Speaker Change: These forward-looking statements are subject to material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.
Speaker Change: We caution you to consider the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.
Speaker Change: In particular, we refer you to the cautionary language included in today's earnings release and the risk factors described in Chegg's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Security and Exchange Commission on February 20, 2024.
Speaker Change: Chegg's quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 12, 2024, as well as our other filings with the FEC.
Speaker Change: Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events.
Speaker Change: During this call we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.
Speaker Change: Our GAAP results and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in our earnings press release and the investor slide deck found on our IR website, investor.chag.com. We also recommend you review the investor data sheet, which is also posted on our IR website. Now, I will turn the call over to Nathan.
Nathan Schultz: Thank you, Tracey. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining CHEC's third quarter earnings call. I'll start today by walking you through our Q3 results and then discuss important shifts in our competitive landscape and what they mean for our business going forward.
Nathan Schultz: In Q3, while the global education industry continues to experience tremendous change, we have shown early progress against the strategic plan we outlined in June.
Nathan Schultz: As a result of this work, in Q3, we delivered better-than-expected revenue of $137 million and $22 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Nathan Schultz: Engagement remained high with the number of questions asked in the quarter of 79% year-over-year and our Q3 Chegg Study and Chegg StudyPak monthly retention rate increased 30 basis points year-over-year.
Nathan Schultz: However, technology shifts have created headwinds for our industry and Chegg's business specifically.
Nathan Schultz: Recent advances in the AI search experience and the adoption of free and paid generative AI services by students have resulted in challenges for tech.
Nathan Schultz: These factors are adversely affecting our business outlook and require us to refocus and adjust the size of our business.
Nathan Schultz: Even in the face of adversity, there continues to be a large market of students looking for high-quality proven learning experience that Tech provides.
Nathan Schultz: We continue to enthusiastically serve this audience, and I remain optimistic in the outlook for us to extend our brand, individualize our product, and weather these challenges.
Nathan Schultz: The first impact I'd like to discuss is Google's broad rollout of its AI Overviews Search Experience, or AIO, which displays AI-generated content at the top of the search results page.
Nathan Schultz: This experience keeps users on Google's search results page instead of leading them on to third-party sites such as Ched. This rollout has been rapid, and while we've been monitoring the development of AIO all year, it was not until mid-August that the search experience significantly expanded.
Nathan Schultz: It's our belief that the prevalence of AIO will only continue to increase, and that Google, in an attempt to maintain market share,
Nathan Schultz: is shifting from being a search origination point to the destination, disintermediating content sites like Check.
Nathan Schultz: Second, across our industry, there has been a continued increase in the adoption of free and paid generative AI products.
Nathan Schultz: It has been widely reported and substantiated in industry research that students are increasingly turning to generative AI for academic support such as homework and exams.
Nathan Schultz: This issue impacts the education ecosystem at large, including universities and education technology companies broadly, where students see generative AI products like Chad2PT as strong alternatives to vertically specialized solutions for education, such as Check.
Nathan Schultz: These factors, the speed and scale of Google AIO's rollout and soon adoption of generative AI products, have negatively impacted our industry and our business.
Nathan Schultz: We have seen a sharp decline in overall traffic and therefore a decline in our outlook on revenue.
Nathan Schultz: Global non-subscriber traffic to TCHAG declined year-over-year 8% in Q2, 19% in Q3, and we exited Q3 with trends looking even more unfavorable at negative 37% year-over-year for the month of October.
Nathan Schultz: We've taken all this into account, and consequently, we do not expect to meet our 2025 goals of 30% adjusted EBITDA margin and $100 million in free cash flow.
Nathan Schultz: Earlier this year, we undertook a strategic restructuring based on the environment in which we are operating. Since then, these new factors have come into play with immense speed and impact. As a result, we are undertaking an additional restructuring to further manage costs and align with the market.
Nathan Schultz: Effective immediately, we are initiating a broad restructuring that will impact all groups across the company.
Nathan Schultz: who will reduce headcount by an additional 21%. We anticipate that these actions, along with additional operating expense savings, will result in an annualized non-gas cost savings of $60 to $70 million in 2025.
Nathan Schultz: The cost savings from the restructuring announced in June, coupled with the restructuring announced today, will result in a combined non-gap savings of $100 to $120 million in 2025.
Thank you for watching!
Nathan Schultz: Even with this, we remain optimistic that there is an audience for CHECK.
Nathan Schultz: While it's clear that some students will favor generative AI options, we believe there still is a large market of students who care about learning and are seeking products that improve their competency and outcomes.
Nathan Schultz: In an August 2024 quantitative study, we found that over 75% of high school and college students in North America show a high to medium willingness to pay for online educational tools if they significantly improve academic performance.
Nathan Schultz: Therefore, we believe there continues to be a student audience that is looking for high quality content and proven learning expertise.
Speaker Change: This is what differentiates Chegg from other generative AI tools today and why millions of learners depend on Chegg to provide meaningful learning experiences with the highest quality content possible.
Speaker Change: Fifteen years of deep expertise in understating students, applying advanced learning science to subjects and topics students learn.
Speaker Change: providing an archive of 132 million high-quality solutions and human support output that has created deep trust and awareness of Chegg. That's why students continue to come directly to Chegg even as competitive environments evolve.
Speaker Change: We're taking steps towards the strategic plan we laid out in June.
Speaker Change: We remain committed to developing a verticalized and individualized experience for education and supporting students throughout the entire learning journey, starting with academic support and eventually functional support.
Speaker Change: Let me acknowledge the progress we have made on our strategic plan in the third quarter.
Speaker Change: We launched our Small Steps, Big Wins brand marketing campaign, which is showing early signs of progress, with year-over-year improvements in click-through rate and conversion rate across many of our paid marketing channels.
Speaker Change: We introduced a content quality and satisfaction guarantee, differentiating our service against generative AI and building trust and loyalty with the subscribers, while still early, it is driving a lift in new subscriber conversion rates.
Speaker Change: We implemented an AI arena that allows us to evaluate and introduce new frontier AI models in real time to deliver the most accurate solutions for students and integrate AI into the full learning journey.
Speaker Change: We upgraded our Q&A experience to align with our drive towards providing an individualized and adaptive learning solution. This effort has already shown an improvement in user engagement and retention.
Speaker Change: We launched NAP on Discord, as well as an extension on Chrome, to reach students where they're already spending time.
Speaker Change: These efforts connect student study activities across sites, engage them with our product, and create new pathways for product-driven growth, which we expect will reduce our reliance on SEO.
Speaker Change: We move to a new vendor-based commerce platform, which will reduce our costs, provide flexibility, and allow us to move faster as we continue to evolve our pricing and packaging programs.
Speaker Change: And finally, we launched four direct-to-institutional partnerships, providing access to Chegg Study paid for by the institutional partner.
Speaker Change: These pilots allow us to gather valuable insights on how trade can enhance classroom learning.
Speaker Change: supporting our goal of diversifying our customer acquisition revenue streams while strengthening TAG's role in improving student learning outcomes.
Speaker Change: As we head into the spring semester, you will continue to see our commitment to building and generating momentum with our brand, traffic, and product capabilities.
Speaker Change: will continue to raise brand awareness with a new spring brand campaign.
Speaker Change: Our creative strategy builds on Chegg's long legacy of empowering students and our unique caring approach. The plan will activate across the full funnel, which we believe will bring new users in, create strong consideration and connection, and ultimately drive converging.
Speaker Change: based on what we learned this fall from the Small Steps, Big Wins.
Speaker Change: program, we believe this strategy will bring both audience expansion and acquisition efficiency.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: On the product front, we will continue delivering individualized learning solutions, specifically focusing on expanding into two of the most highly relevant use cases, practice and solution comparison. These are durable needs in core learning behaviors and support learning.
Speaker Change: When we acknowledge the significance of the headwinds we've covered earlier, Chegg has a deep legacy of serving students and we believe our brand and product experiences are resilient.
Speaker Change: We remain optimistic and will continue to be there for students who have grown to rely on us. And as you've heard, we've already taken steps to strengthen our experience and increase efficiencies across the business.
Speaker Change: This is a multi-year plan and will require patience. We will continue to manage our expenses prudently as the competitive landscape evolves.
Speaker Change: We will keep focused on doing the right things for our investors, our team, and the students we serve.
Before I end...
Speaker Change: I want to thank our employees around the world for their hard work and dedication. Their efforts and talents have helped support students and bring learning to life. And while this is a trying time for us all, I'm confident we will get through it. With that, I'll turn it over to David.
David Longo: Thank you, Nathan, and good afternoon. Today I will present our financial performance for the third quarter of 2024 and the company's outlook for Q4.
David Longo: We delivered a solid third quarter. During the quarter, we remained focused on executing our strategic plan to deliver our AI-driven experience to students around the world while we continued to prudently manage our expenses.
David Longo: We exceeded our Q3 guidance on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA, and our balance sheet remains healthy.
David Longo: In the third quarter, total revenue was $137 million, down 13% year-over-year, including subscription services revenue of $120 million, which was down 14% year-over-year.
David Longo: We had 3.8 million subscribers in the quarter, representing a decline of 13 percent.
David Longo: Subscription services ARPU was down 2% year-over-year, a one-point improvement from Q2 2024.
David Longo: Still another revenue with $17 million, a decrease of 6% year over year.
David Longo: We had two notable items this quarter. First, we recorded an impairment charge against our goodwill. As a result of continued industry pressure and declines in our market capitalization and as required by accounting rules, we completed an impairment test on our goodwill, which resulted in a $196 million non-cash impairment charge that was excluded from our Q3 adjusted EBITDA.
David Longo: Second, we reached a settlement agreement to resolve the Leventhal class action securities lawsuit.
David Longo: We recorded $55 million for the estimated contingent liability for the loss, along with a $55 million receivable for the insurance proceeds we expect to receive.
David Longo: These amounts had no impact on our Q3 adjusted EBITDA. Well, we strongly disagree with the premise of the case and deny all allegations of wrongdoing.
David Longo: The decision to settle the lawsuit was driven by the cost and burden of ongoing protracted class action litigation and the monetary costs of defending the case. We are happy to have this matter resolved.
Pre-cash flow was $24 million in the third quarter.
David Longo: Capital expenditures were $15.8 million in the quarter, down 32% year-over-year, of which $10 million were content costs.
David Longo: As we harnessed the power of AI, CapEx content costs were down 28% year over year, while the number of questions asked increased 79%.
David Longo: Looking at the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with cash and investments of $631 million and a net cash balance of $30 million.
David Longo: Today we announce that our Board of Directors has authorized an increase of 300 million dollars as part of our securities repurchase program. The program will allow us to buy back our convertible notes and or common stock.
Speaker Change: Chegg had approximately 3.7 million dollars remaining from its previously announced program.
Speaker Change: As Nathan discussed earlier, we are executing a restructuring plan to better align our cost structure with recent industry challenges and the negative impact on our business.
Speaker Change: While these difficult decisions are essential for Jake's future, we recognize the unfortunate impact they may have on many of our employees and their families.
Speaker Change: Our restructuring will impact 319 employees or approximately 21% of the company.
Speaker Change: In 2025, the company expects to realize non-GAAP expense savings of $60 to $70 million from these employee departures, real estate savings, as well as other cost rationalizations.
Speaker Change: Chegg expects to incur a 22 to 26 million dollar charge related to the restructure
Speaker Change: Of this charge, $18 to $22 million will be incurred in cash, representing mostly severance payments, with the remaining amount representing non-cash charges. We expect that a substantial portion of the cash and non-cash charges will be incurred in the fourth quarter.
Speaker Change: We anticipate these activities and substantially all charges will be completed by June 30, 2025.
Speaker Change: Moving on to Q4 guidance, we expect total revenue between $141 and $143 million, with subscription services revenue between $126 and $128 million.
Speaker Change: Gross margin to be in the range of 67 to 68% and adjusted EBITDA between $32 and $34 million.
Speaker Change: In closing, while our business outlook has significantly softened versus our prior expectations, and these numbers are not where we want them to be, like many companies in the ed-tech space, we are dealing with the challenges of a dynamically changing AI landscape.
Speaker Change: We are working to expand our best-in-class verticalized experience for students focused on improving their outcomes. However, it will take time to adjust to the new opportunity and see the benefits in our business results.
Speaker Change: In the meantime, we are committed to maintaining transparency about the industry and our business trends. With that, I will turn the call over to the operator for your questions.
Speaker Change: At this time we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad.
Speaker Change: As a reminder, we ask that you please limit to one question and one follow-up.
Speaker Change: A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we poll for questions.
Speaker Change: Our first question comes from Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Eric Sheridan: Thanks so much for taking the question. When you look out to not just Q4, but over the medium term,
went balanced against trying to reduce the overall...
Eric Sheridan: cost structure of the company. Can you talk a little bit about striking that balance with an emphasis on what you see as some of the most critical investments that need to be made to not sort of abandon any of the longer term growth dynamics against some of the near term headwinds you might be facing? Thanks so much.
Nathan Schultz: Thank you, Eric, thanks for the question. This is Nathan. I'm happy to answer it and happy to talk more about differentiation that we're going to be building into our product.
Nathan Schultz: I want to go back to our shareholder letter that we rolled out in June of this year. We still very much believe that that is a winning strategy, and as I mentioned in that letter and on subsequent calls, that the plans that we have
Nathan Schultz: to support students both academically and eventually functionally is going to be a multi-year journey.
Nathan Schultz: Our core efforts, even with the reduction, it's really just a refocusing of where we're going to put our priorities and what we're going to work on first and second and third, and they are still very much around creating points of differentiation against generic free AI products.
Nathan Schultz: You saw us already do some of this with the content satisfaction guarantee that we rolled out this August that created some elbow room as we started to really stand behind the content and learning experiences that we've supplied.
Nathan Schultz: You saw that with the brand campaign, Small Steps, Big Wins, which we're going to continue to build on, which, you know, created some really nice...
Nathan Schultz: and I'm going to talk about a year-over-year improvement in click-through rates and conversion rates across our paid marketing channels. As we go into the winter semester, you'll continue to see the product evolve, particularly in the areas of practice.
Nathan Schultz: In Solution Comparison, these are two high-value use cases we know students are leading into and truly help us to build into that personalized learning journey that we know students are willing to pay for.
The End
Thanks very much
Appreciate the question, Eric.
Speaker Change: Our next, excuse me, our next question comes from Ryan McDonald with Needham & Company. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker Change: Hi, Nathan. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just focusing on the Google update. Obviously, quite a bit of a change there.
Speaker Change: As you've looked at trying to find new channels to market,
Speaker Change: to the student population. Can you one just talk about sort of the how much of the traffic came from Google that you're trying going to have to replace moving forward and then, you know, what channels thus far as we've gone into the fall semester or as you started to test out new channels?
Speaker Change: Maybe you're seeing the most success or giving you the best chance of maybe replicating or refilling the bucket that you might lose from the Google site.
Speaker Change: I appreciate the question, Ryan. I surely want to make sure I do not leave today without explaining AIO Reviews a bit more and making sure you understand that just...
Speaker Change: because it is on the page does not mean we lose all of the SEO traffic that has historically come to us.
Speaker Change: It is just that our organic listings are now below the AI overview that Google is presenting the user with.
Speaker Change: As we see ourselves, as with any company where SEO is a factor, it is not a factor in generating customers. It is not the only one for us.
Speaker Change: We have very strong direct channel, and we have been stepping out broadly over the last 18 months with the work we've done on TikTok to really become a significant educational partner there. You heard in our preparatory remarks, we're very excited about the launch of the app on Discord and the Chrome extension, really trying to put Chegg integrated into the student workflow and on surfaces where the students already are, and we can introduce our products to them there. We can actually give them pseudo-experiences that drive some new product-driven growth right from those channels. And so we're going to continue to have kind of a whole list.
Speaker Change: the other two are going to talk about the stick marketing strategy across multiple funnels. We're going to continue to see us push that out in our brand campaign coming this winter and we're going to continue to find ways to attract the strongest audience we possibly can.
Speaker Change: Appreciate the color on that, Nathan. Maybe just as a follow-up, as you look across the subscriber base today and student cohorts, what segment of the student population do you feel like you're having the most traction? And maybe perhaps, what areas do you feel like you need to do incremental work in terms of driving, let's call it brand awareness and conversion? Thanks.
Nathan Schultz: Yeah, I love that question because I think one of the, one of the
Nathan Schultz: One of the viewpoints people have with students is they're a little bit one-dimensional, and they're not, frankly. A student throughout a semester is going to need sometimes to really dive deep into becoming confident and competent in a subject, and there are times where they're just going to turn to generic AI to get an answer. We are targeting that student, and at the moment when that student needs to really learn, and from our data we can clearly see, we've said in our prepared remarks, more than 75% of high school, U.S. high school and college students
are willing to pay for service.
as that service is really designed to produce.
Nathan Schultz: better outcomes and competency and confidence. And so that's what we're geared towards around all of our brand campaigns of really expressing the students, you know, when to use Chegg, how to use Chegg. And we know that students are going to use a basket of services when we want to and when so when they're really going for that learning and really going to get prepared for those exams, we want them to choose Chegg. And that's why you see our product going into that more practice area, that solution comparison area, and not just that next word and that next solution.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from Alex Furman with Craig Hallam Capital Group. Please proceed with your question.
Thank you. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye.
Speaker Change: Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. If I heard correctly in your prepared remarks, it sounds like the number of questions asked
Speaker Change: through Chegg was up pretty substantially versus last year. I'm just curious how you really reconcile how subscribers are down so much and yet it seems like just by the metric of questions asked, engagement is actually quite strong and wondering if there's, you know, any better way to take advantage of that and monetize your core users going forward.
Speaker Change: That's a great question, appreciate it. And you're right, questions were up 79% year-over-year in Q3. And we continue, this is a kind of a trend that we can see continue as we invest in that Q&A experience that I talked about in prepared remarks, us really revamping again that Q&A experience as we want to pivot it away from being just about that solution or that next word, which we know students can get elsewhere to really a learning experience and taking that student, which may start with a question but lead them into a flashcard, lead them into bookmarking the content for a study guide, lead them into prompting them into another question. And clearly from the engagement you're seeing, that's working, right?
Speaker Change: What we've got to do now, which is why I was very encouraged with the early trends of the Small Steps, Big Wins campaign, is we've got to amplify that in our winner branding program and really get our students who love us really behind us and really as vocal advocates for us.
Okay, that's really helpful. Thank you very much.
Appreciate the question.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from Jess Silber with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Hey, this is Ryan on for Jeff. Similar to last question, I was just wondering on the retention rate. It seems like your retention is trending reasonably well and you're having some difficulty getting the new subs in the door because of the new Gen AI enhancements. Just wondering if you could give any thoughts on that and where you're losing in the funnel as well. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Yeah I appreciate the question and retention and the product experience certainly go hand-in-hand again this is this is just a moment where there's
Speaker Change: There's clearly turbulence in the market around students and when to use certain tools. We're really stepping out and establishing ourselves as a place to come to for learning and for improvements in your confidence and your competency. Our brand campaigns are all around that. When you hit the funnels now on JEGS, it is all about making sure you can understand and trust in our content. We're going to continue to push on those packaging programs, those opportunities for students to explore our product a bit more before they're immediately hit with the paywalls and really get them into the product versus them just having to opt out if they're truly looking for an answer and they're going to go somewhere else.
Speaker Change: We know that and we're going to look to get those students who are looking to learn.
Great. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our next question is from Josh Baer with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Thank you very much.
Speaker Change: Hi, this is Ryan on for Josh from Morgan's family. Just curious if you guys could provide some further details on the softening and non-subscriber traffic trend through October. I guess just like what are the primary drivers and kind of with this in mind what gives you guys confidence that this can stabilize over time? Thank you.
Thank you.
Ryan, appreciate the question. And...
Speaker Change: I think you heard some of this in prepared remarks, and really the softness in the traffic, which therefore goes into subscriber trends, is really a reflection of, in my opinion, of the Google AIO experience, the Google AIO Reviews experience, that is now kind of ruled out and pretty pervasive. Obviously, students are getting those who are seeking immediate solutions versus trying to dive deeper into the learning and are getting what they need right there on the screen. So that's going to drive, obviously, some softness in traffic. What we're doing about it, which is the important part, is making sure we really diversify how we get in front of students and where we get in front of students. So you're seeing that.
Speaker Change: specifically in the Discord app. We've got the work we're continuing to do on TikTok and the broad kind of big push we're doing on the brand side, really stepping out there and getting out there so students know what it shakes hands for, where do we sit in that comparison set, when to come to us.
Great, thank you.
Speaker Change: This concludes our question and answer session and concludes our conference call for today. You may disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.
Thank you.
Goodbye.