Q3 2024 Ardmore Shipping Corp Earnings Call
The End
Speaker Change: Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome to ArtMarshipings 3rd quarter 2020 for earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the investor relation section of the company's website,ardmarshiping.com.
We will conduct a question and answer session after the opening remarks.
Instructions will follow at that time.
Speaker Change: A replay of the conference call will be accessible anytime during the next two weeks by dialing 1888-660-6345 or 1646.
Speaker Change: 517-415-0, and entering the passcode 17491.
Speaker Change: At this time, I will turn the call over to Kermont Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer of our Armand Shipings.
Speaker Change: Good morning and welcome to Art Machipping's third quarter 2020 for earnings call. First, let me ask our President and CEO of Bart Kelleher to discuss forward-looking statements.
Bart Kelleher: Thanks, Gernot. Turning to slide two, please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.
Speaker Change: Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the third quarter 2020-24 earnings release, which is available on our website. And now I'll turn the call back over to Gernot.
Gernot: Thank you, Bart. Let me first outline the format of today's call. To begin with, I will discuss our third quarter earnings highlights. Following this, I will discuss the new term market outlook and our capital allocation policy.
Gernot: After that, Bart will provide an update on product and chemical tanker fundamentals and often
and then I will conclude the presentation before opening up the call for questions.
Gernot: So, turning Chris to slide for to discuss our third quarter earnings highlights. We're pleased to announce strong third quarter results with adjusted earnings of $23.3 million of 55 cents per share, reflecting elevated TCE rates versus historical norms.
Gernot: Our MRs earned $28,500 per day for the third quarter and 25,000 per day so far in the fourth quarter with 50% booked.
Gernot: Our chemical tankers earned $21,600 per day for the third quarter and $25,150 per day for the fourth quarter with 55% booked so far.
Gernot: The charred on the upper right highlights our strong market performance, with TCE rates up beyond year during the seasonally slow-aster quarter.
Gernot: Additionally, on a year-to-date basis, we are up 17% compared to the same period last year.
Gernot: Intendum with our strong and more performance, we continue leveraging the significant overlap between product and chemical tanker trades.
Gernot: Meanwhile, we continue to execute on our long standing capital allocation policy.
Gernot: We declared another quarterly cash dividends of 18th-century presher, consistent with our policy of putting out one third of adjusted earnings.
Gernot: Furthermore, we continue to make high return investments in our fleet, which are enhancing performance and reducing emissions.
Gernot: To give an example, as our chemical tankers go through their regular 5-year dry-darking cycle in 2025, we have committed to investing in specialized tank coatings to further increase trading flexibility and boost earnings performance.
Gernot: Overall, Bart more continues to benefit from its strategic focus on optimizing out-vading performance while tightly managing cost.
Gernot: We have reduced our break even level down to $11,500 per day, the lowest in our most history.
Gernot: This provides flexibility and resilience to our company.
Gernot: Turning to slide five, where we discuss why the market outlook continues to be very supportive.
Gernot: As you can see from the graph on the upper right, we are approaching a point of inflection as we enter the seasonally stronger winter market.
Gernot: This typically commenced us in November, given by increasing refinery runs, the impacts of weather delays and heightened overall trading activity.
Gernot: TCE rates in the third quarter were impacted by an unusual spike in the number of VLCCs and SUISMAXs carrying refined product as a result of temporarily weaker crude markets.
Gernot: Although crew tanker new buildings often carry these refined products on their maiden voyage, it is uncommon for ships to quote-unquote clean up.
Gernot: This is due to the significant switching cost and time involved. However, we have seen this trend unwinding as crude markets have also strengthened.
Gernot: In addition, ongoing and persistent geopolitical disruption continues to drive higher ton miles and the dislocation of core trades, which is adding consistent upward pressure to freight rates.
Gernot: Underlying demand drivers remain supportive despite some short-term volatility.
Gernot: Saudi Arabia and OPEC plus are expected to increase production into 2025 while the US economy continues to prove resilient with strong jobs growth and falling inflation.
Gernot: Moving to slide 6, where we highlight our long-standing capital allocation policy.
Gernot: Given our strong financial position, we have been actively delivering on all of our capital allocation priorities and are pleased with our performance to date.
Gernot: I would like to draw your attention especially to the following.
Gernot: We have declared our eighth consecutive dividend with a cumulative payout equivalent to 15% of our market cap.
Gernot: In line with our energy transition plan, we have completed numerous projects across the fleet, achieving high IRRs, up to and even exceeding 100%.
Gernot: In this high interest rate environment, we continue to de-lever across debt and preferred stock.
Gernot: And we have reduced our cash breakeven from $16,500 per day to $11,500 per day, leading to annualized savings of about $50 million.
Gernot: Our capital allocation cycle reflects the strategic long-term approach to the cycle. We are committed to balancing the return of cash to shareholders with reinvesting in our fleet in order to enable sustainable value creation.
Speaker Change: And with that, I would like to hand over to Bart.
Bart Kelleher: Thanks, Gernot. Following Gernot's insights on the market outlook, we examine the industry fundamentals in greater detail.
Bart Kelleher: As previously discussed, the supply-demand dynamics continue to be very supportive.
Gernot: Moving to slide 8 where we contrast an aging MR fleet and its replacement needs with the current order book.
Gernot: The chart on the left provides an important visual representation of the changes in the MR fleet over time.
Gernot: As previously discussed, 15 years ago, we observed a modern fleet with a large order book, as highlighted in the red quadrant.
Gernot: However, over time, the order book has declined while the fleet has aged.
Gernot: Currently, as highlighted in the green quadrant, we have an exceptionally old fleet in an order book that reflects this replacement need.
Gernot: In fact, it's the oldest fleet in two decades, with an average age of nearly 14 years.
Gernot: Now moving to the chart on the right, we can see that 50% of the global MR fleet will be over 20 years old and entering the scrapping window within the next five years.
Gernot: In contrast, the current order book, delivering over the same time period, represents only 15% of the fleet.
Gernot: So the aging fleet is more than three times the current order book.
Gernot: For the product tanker order book overall, it's important to re-emphasize the lack of AfriMax crude tanker new buildings, as well as the fact that LR2s are coated tankers of the same size and can operate in the same trades.
Gernot: That means that as the AfriMax fleet shrinks, a portion of these LR2s will operate in crew trades to make up the shortfall.
Gernot: Moving to slide 9, where we address the long-term demand drivers in greater detail.
Gernot: Combined with closures in the West, this continues to drive incremental long-haul ton miles.
Gernot: At the same time, we note the evolving demand picture with the growing importance of biofuels, while market projections reflect the increasing demand for oil products to meet both global energy and mobility needs.
Gernot: As previously mentioned, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with the EU embargo on refined products, has resulted in a persistent reordering of the global product trades.
Gernot: Also, new regulations provide further upside potential to the market.
Gernot: due to increasing trade complexity, which creates opportunities for operators such as Ardmore.
Gernot: Moving to slide 10.
Gernot: which highlights the supportive fundamentals considering the aging fleet and continued demand drivers we just discussed.
Gernot: In the chart, the green bars represent ton-mile growth, while the blue and gray bars represent net chemical and product tanker fleet growth.
Gernot: Of course, it's important to remember the need to adjust for the dynamics between LR2s and AFROMAX crew tankers, as we just discussed.
Gernot: Looking ahead, in a range of scenarios over the next several years, market fundamentals point to sustained strength.
Gernot: Moving to slide 12 and turning our attention to the company.
Gernot: Ardmore continues to build upon its financial strength.
Gernot: Once again, the chart on the bottom left highlights our tremendous focus on significantly reducing our cash breakeven levels to $11,500 per day.
Gernot: This has been achieved in an elevated interest rate environment driven by effective cost control, lower debt levels, and access to revolving credit facilities.
Gernot: As always, Ardmore remains focused on optimizing performance, closely managing costs, and preserving a strong balance sheet.
Gernot: Turning to slide 13 for financial highlights.
Gernot: As noted, we are very pleased with our performance as we report results of $0.55 per share for the third quarter.
Gernot: We are correspondingly reporting strong EBITDAR for the quarter and continue to frame EBITDAR as an important comparable valuation metric against our IFRS reporting peers.
Gernot: While I won't go into the details here, there is a full reconciliation of this presented in the appendix on slide 24.
Gernot: Also, please refer to slide 25 in the appendix for our fourth quarter guidance numbers.
Gernot: Moving to slide 14 for fleet operations.
Gernot: We have now completed all of our scheduled dry dockings for 2024.
Gernot: We have our full fleet in position as the winter market begins to accelerate.
Gernot: Notably, we made $15 million of investments in efficiency-enhancing technologies and scrubber installations this year, which represents over half of our $26 million CAPEX program.
Gernot: This is already boosting our strong chartering performance.
Gernot: For 2025, we're forecasting capital expenditure of approximately $30 to $35 million, covering routine dry dockings, as well as significant investments in additional high-returning performance upgrades.
Gernot: This includes the previously mentioned specialized tank coatings.
Gernot: In addition, we've been preparing for the implementation of Fuel-EU Maritime, which comes into effect on January 1, 2025.
Speaker Change: Well, a lot of planning is going into this by our chartering and operations team. In essence, this is a pass-through voyage expense and will be treated as such.
Speaker Change: Finally, Ardmore continues to deliver strong operational performance, achieving over 99% on-hire availability in the third quarter with strong coordination and execution between our seafarers and shoreside teams.
Gernot: Moving to slide 15.
Gernot: where we highlight the power of our strong operating leverage.
Gernot: As seasonality plays out, we can experience significant increases in charter rates.
Gernot: To frame this in a simple manner, an additional $10,000 per day equates to an annual increase of about $2.25 in earnings and a boost of nearly $100 million in free cash flow generation.
Gernot: As we enter the seasonally stronger winter market, our modern, high-quality fleet is well positioned to take full advantage.
Gernot: With that, I'm happy to hand the call back to Gernot and look forward to answering any questions at the end.
Gernot: Great. Thank you, Bart. To summarize, then, first, the market.
Gernot: Our chartering performance remained elevated in the typically slower third quarter and is up year-on-year.
Gernot: Now, as we move into the seasonally stronger winter market, rates have begun to accelerate.
Gernot: While we recognize some short-term volatility, long-term market fundamentals remain strong.
Gernot: This strength is supported by an unprecedented age demographic for the tanker fleet on one hand and an evolving and growing demand picture on the other hand, including an increasing need for transition fuels.
Gernot: regarding our company.
Gernot: Our investment in the fleet is enabling us to maximize TCE performance. Meanwhile, tight cost management and continued delevering are reducing our cash break-even.
Gernot: Overall, this enables us to deliver consistently strong earnings.
Gernot: The result is a robust balance sheet, and we have been delivering on all our capital allocation priorities.
Gernot: And with that, I would now like to open the call for questions.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. And if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on the telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. Once again, star and one if you wish to ask a question.
Speaker Change: And our first question comes from the line of Omar Nocta from Jeffries. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Gernot: and many more. Thank you. Thank you.
Omar Nocta: Gernot and Bart, good afternoon. Obviously, you know, you guys are reporting obviously on a day that's pretty significant and I guess, sorry to ask this from the get-go, but just in general and anything that, anything immediately or on the horizon that you see changing for the product market as a result of the Trump win.
Gernot: Yeah, sorry to ask that off the bat here.
Speaker Change: No, no, not a problem at all, Omar, and good morning to you. And I hope you also appreciate that we'll probably, you know, defer for any kind of deep political analysis and leave that to those most qualified to give it. Of course, we do pay attention and, you know, the U.S. is important for us, you know, customers and staff and, of course, shareholders there.
Speaker Change: but you know as far as the market is concerned we think for the reasons that we discussed fundamentals remain very positive.
Speaker Change: The you know
Speaker Change: embargo on Russian refined product exports. That's an EU embargo. That's a European thing. And even if there were a resolution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, I would question whether Europe would kind of go back to depending on Russian diesel exports.
Speaker Change: to the extent they have before, considering there's a really well-functioning, well-priced and lively alternative trade that's been well underway now for a long period of time.
Speaker Change: situation in the Red Sea, I doubt there's going to be an immediate resolution and for ships to safely go through the Red Sea again, I think a lot would have to happen. I would just make one more observation. In general, I think any incoming president, regardless of which party,
Speaker Change: you know has no interest in seeing prices at the pump go up and that typically would suggest that you know
Speaker Change: that president has no interest in restricting circulation of oil products. As a matter of fact, it should mean more refinery output and with that usually more trading activity and a higher need for transport.
Speaker Change: Thank you. That's very helpful. I appreciate your views there. And maybe just wanted to ask also, you know, clearly just looking at your bookings that you've been able to achieve here, you know, thus far into the fourth quarter on both the MRs and the handy chemicals, you know, I'd say they're
Speaker Change: pretty solid and seem to be above the averages maybe that we kind of see with the spot market indices. I guess the question is, is that the case? Is that above the indexes? And then in relation to where the market is now, how would you say that compared to your averages thus far?
Speaker Change: Thank You Omar and I guess you know we've been told I'm not very good at taking a compliment but we'll just take it so appreciate it but it's really a more testament to I think the team at the platform that we built
Speaker Change: where I think indices just tend to, you know, imperfectly reflect the true potential of the market. And we have, of course, a very integrated platform and culture that is focused.
Speaker Change: And I would say that is an important component to our strategy and it's good to see that play out. So, thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Once again, for those who want to ask a question, just press star and 1 on your telephone keypad.
Speaker Change: And the next question comes from the line of Ben Nolan from Stifel. Your line is now open, please go ahead.
Ben Nolan: Thank you. Good morning or good afternoon guys. I wanted to ask a little bit or maybe how you think about asset pricing specifically
Ben Nolan: You know you've spent a few years now
Ben Nolan: really be leveraging the balance sheet, which is great. And perhaps, at least lately, part of that has been maybe a little hesitancy to lean in very far into buying assets because they are perhaps a bit elevated.
Speaker Change: And I'm not asking for like a perfect number of what you think is a good price on an MR, but
Speaker Change: Maybe just a little of the background or the calculus or whatever behind where you think or how you would think about what is a good price given the supply demand dynamics, new buildings, etc., you know, and how close are we to something that you think is actionable.
Speaker Change: Thank you for watching. For more information visit www.fema.gov Or visit www.fema.gov.au
Speaker Change: Yeah, good morning, Ben. It's a great question and it's part of that, I think, nuanced, very thoughtful and deliberate balancing act we undertake on a continuous basis among management and with the board, you know.
Speaker Change: taking it back to the capital allocation policy that we've been very consistent with, you know, reinvestment in the business is a big part of it and when we look at the different angles of reinvesting in the business we have to then, you know, look at what do we believe offers the most value to our shareholders.
Speaker Change: and we are very excited about finding ways to reinvest in the existing fleet in ways that provide extremely attractive returns.
Speaker Change: Regardless of what happens in the market, while of course at the same time, you know, we do stay connected with a broad range of...
Speaker Change: you know, sources of deal flow really, to make sure that we continue to evaluate all potential avenues for reinvestment. And here we, I think we will continue to be disciplined and selective and make sure that any investment decision meets our value criteria.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
Speaker Change: where we are today. Well, I think it's an interesting...
Speaker Change: point in time where you know certainly we have pointed to some of those you know some of that short-term volatility and I think that's something we pay very close attention to as it as it kind of you know reverberates through the different markets that we're exposed to including of course the sale and purchase markets
Speaker Change: Okay. All right. Thank you very much.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Ben.
Speaker Change: and I'm Bryan Degnan. I'm Bryan Degnan. I'm Anthony Gurnee.
Speaker Change: Thank you and no further questions that came through. This concludes our conference for today. Oh sorry, we have a follow-up question from Omar Anokta from Jeffries. Please go ahead.
Omar Anokta: Thank you. Thanks. Just one quick follow-up, just from my side. Just wanted to ask about the preferreds. You're buying back $10 million of the $40 million.
Omar Anokta: I just wanted to get
Omar Anokta: Your thoughts on that, you know, when you think of buying, say, stock versus these preferreds, is it more attractive to you at these levels to look at the stock, or is it preferred still you think where you'd rather look to
Speaker Change: buy back a part of the capital structure.
Speaker Change: Yeah, thanks, Omar. Good question.
Speaker Change: And I think the way that we think about it really well, you know, labeled preferred equity, the preferred and our debt, kind of think about it, you know, very similar instruments.
Speaker Change: and paying eight and a half percent interest on the preferred on a fixed basis in a decreasing interest rate environment is one where we can chip away at that and further reduce our break-even and there's an efficiency to you know in the lower interest rate environment.
Speaker Change: and having a revolving capacity utilize some of the bank debt in the short term to do that, but I think you can really think about it as our approach to debt reduction is really debt reduction and the preferred as part of that bucket.
Speaker Change: Okay. Thanks, Bart. And then just quickly on that, you're redeeming, say, 25% of the outstanding amount. Is there any restrictions that would stop you from being able to do the full remaining 30?
Speaker Change: No, Two Point Zero team…
Speaker Change: So we can redeem
Speaker Change: I'll pass it on. Go ahead, Omer.
Omer: We can redeem any amount at this point, you know, at any point in time, and I think we just felt it was prudent to start taking a bite out of it, and then we'll assess, you know, how we see the market develop and the cash flow generation from the company, and, you know, look to continue to de-lever, including our position in the preferred.
Speaker Change: Very good. Thank you again.
Speaker Change: http://www.youtube.com
Speaker Change: Thanks.
Speaker Change: Thank you. This concludes our conference call for today. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.