Q2 2025 Dorian LPG Ltd Earnings Call
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Music by Tim Hansen Music by Tim Hansen
Hello and welcome to the Dorian LPG second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
Additionally, a live audio webcast of today's conference call is available on Dorian LPG's website, which is www.dorianlpg.com.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you Mr. Young, please go ahead.
Ted Young: Thank you, Nicky.
Good morning and thank you all for joining us for our second quarter 2025 results conference call. With me today are John Hadjipateras, Chairman, President and CEO of Dorian LPG Ltd. John Lycouris, Head of Energy Transition.
and Tim Hansen, Chief Commercial Officer. As a reminder, this conference call webcast and a replay of this call will be available through November 7, 2024.
Though we believe that such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct.
Ted Young: These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, and other factors, as well as general economic conditions.
Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we express today.
Additionally, let me refer you to our unaudited results for the period ending September 30th, 2024, that were filed this morning on Form 10-Q.
In addition, please refer to our previous filings on Form 10-K where you'll find risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. With that, I'll turn over the call to John Hadjipateras.
John Hadjipateras: Good morning and happy Halloween. Thank you for joining us.
Ted Young: Our board continues to be committed to returning value to our shareholders while retaining commercial flexibility, ensuring a strong balance sheet, and the ability to invest in optimization and decarbonization initiatives.
Ted Young: This is reflected in our capital allocation policy under which, after paying out our recently declared dividend of $1 per share, we will have returned over $820 million to our shareholders since our IPO.
Ted Young: We had a solid quarter despite a free market which felt the brunt of weather-related disruptions on LPG exports.
Well, the quarter ending September 31st, our EBITDA was 46.2 million and net income was 9.4 million. Our net debt to total capitalization remains at about 14 percent.
We feel well positioned to take advantage of opportunities for investments. Ted will give you details and answers to any questions you may have on our quarter's financial results.
Speaker Change: VOGC freight rates started the quarter on a high note, but this initial strength was followed by a period of softening through mid-quarter. Despite a very healthy arbitrage between U.S. and Asian LPG prices,
The VLGC freight market was hit with an unusual combination of forces that created temporary length in the market and weighed on rates.
Speaker Change: Tim will provide you greater details in his comments.
Speaker Change: and John Hadjipateras. Thank you.
We're optimistic about near and mid-term market prospects ahead of seasonally strong winter period. Recent volatility illustrates that the market is near equilibrium where disruptions cause sharp and up-and-down moves.
In the short term, a canal is likely to gain more traffic from container and LNG ships in the coming months and an example of a midterm positive is
terminal expansion projects, the first of which is slated to finish in the second half of 2026, and subsequent two years will provide ample capacity to accommodate production and expert growth.
Speaker Change: The Helios LPG pool is performing well and our mix of Skraba LPG dual fuel and Panamax VLGC allows us to take advantage of favorable fuel prices and to offer commercial flexibility to our customers.
Speaker Change: We have one VLG CVLAC delivering in 2026 and will retrofit some of our existing ships to be able to carry ammonia.
We already have the Captain John NP on the water, which is fully ammonia-capable. Our feeling is that the current order book is sufficient, and further ordering needs to be restrained until the green ammonia trade develops.
We're pleased to announce the addition of an eighth board member, Mr. Mark Ross, earlier this year stepped down from his position as president of Chevron Shipping after nine years in that role and 34 years at Chevron.
Mark's knowledge of the global energy and shipping markets will contribute a valuable perspective and we're proud to welcome him to the Doran team.
Speaker Change: As always, I acknowledge our dedicated seafarers and shoreside staff whose hard work and dedication make our results possible.
And now I'd like to hand over to Ted.
Thanks. My comments today will focus on capital allocation, our financial position and liquidity, and our unaudited second quarter results.
Ted Young: At September 30, 2024, we reported $348.6 million of free cash, which was virtually flat from the previous quarter.
Ted Young: which implies cash flow to equity of 44 million. As disclosed last week we will pay another one dollar per share as an irregular dividend roughly 43 million in total on or about November 25th 2024 to shareholders of record as of November 5th.
The debt balance at quarter end of $583.7 million, our debt-to-total book capitalization stood at 34.9%, and with our strong cash balance, net debt-to-total cap at 13.4%.
We're a well-structured and attractively priced debt capital. Our current all-in-debt cost, by the way, is about 4.7 percent. An undrawn $50 million revolver and one debt-free vessel, coupled with our strong free cash balance, we have a comfortable measure of financial flexibility.
Ted Young: We expect our cash costs per day for the remainder of the coming year to be approximately $26,000 per day, excluding capital expenditures for dry docking and scrubbers.
Speaker Change: For the discussion of our second quarter results, you may find it useful to refer to the investor highlights slides posted this morning on our website. I'd also remind you that my remarks will include a number of terms such as TCE, available days and adjusted EBITDA. Please refer to our filings for the definitions of those terms.
I'd also like to point out that we have slightly amended our disclosures around fleet employment. Specifically, we've amended our definition of available days to reflect unscheduled off-hire, which was formerly picked up in the calculation of operating days. We now define available days as calendar days minus scheduled and unscheduled off-hire.
This approach is consistent with how the Helios Pool reports and is more consistent with industry practice. We will no longer report operating days.
Speaker Change: Turning to our second quarter chartering results, we achieved TCE revenue per available day of about $37,000. Though sequentially lower than the prior quarter's results, the TCE still allowed us to generate over $40 million in free cash flow equity for the quarter.
As our entire spot trading program is conducted through the Helios Pool, it's spot results that are reported are the best measure of our spot trailing performance.
For the September 30 quarter, the Helios Pool earned a TCE of $38,019 per day for its SPOT and COA voyages.
On page 4 of our Investor Highlights material, you can see that we have 5 Dorian vessels on time trigger within the pool, plus 1 MOL Energia vessel, indicating spot exposure of about 80% of the 30 vessels in the pool.
Turning to the quarter ending December 31, 2024, we currently estimate that we have fixed just over 60% of the available days in the quarter at a TCE in excess of $40,000 per day.
That rate includes both spot fixtures and time chargers in the helios pool only.
Given the difficulty in predicting loading dates, which obviously have a huge effect on revenue recognition, disport options in some charters, and the fact that our COAs are priced on average Baltic rates, the estimates we quote during these calls and the rates actually realized can vary.
Speaker Change: Daily op-ex for the quarter was $9,767, excluding dry docking related expenses, which was down meaningfully from the prior quarter's $10,618. Spares in stores and repairs and maintenance line items led to decrease.
Our time charter and expense for the TCN vessels came in at $9.9 million or slightly less than $29,000 per day. Thus, those vessels contributed nicely to our quarterly profits.
Total G&A for the quarter was $16.5 million, and cash G&A, that's G&A excluding non-cash compensation expense, was $10.5 million.
The $10.5 million included $4.1 million of cash bonuses that were paid during the quarter. Thus, our core G&A came in at $6.4 million, which is consistent with prior quarters and our general expectations.
The high level of stock compensation expense was largely a function of the price on the grant date, not an increase in shares granted.
Speaker Change: The reported adjusted EBITDA was $46.2 million.
Speaker Change: Cash interest expense for the quarter was $7.1 million, again reflecting the heavily hedged and fixed nature of our various pieces of debt and our all-in cost of debt of sub-4.7 percent.
For the current fiscal year, we have completed three dry dockings and anticipate dry docking three more of our vessels, including some upgrades.
Speaker Change: Year-to-date, we've incurred roughly $5 million in cash outlays for dry docking, and we anticipate about $8 million through fiscal year-end, which does include some payments for the dry docks already completed. Days in dry dock should be consistent with our disclosures.
Although we currently hold a roughly 83% economic interest in Helios, we do not consolidate its P&L or balance sheet accounts, which has the effect of understating our cash and working capital.
Thus, we believe it is useful to provide some additional insight in order to give a more complete picture. As of Wednesday, October 30, 2024, the pool had roughly $22 million of cash on hand.
The irregular dividend declared last week of $1 per share brings to $14.50 per share in irregular dividends that we have paid since September 2021.
Well, many investors and analysts like to suggest that these dividends are no longer irregular. We underscore that they are indeed irregular and subject to a variety of factors that our board considers and always remains at its discretion. The OGC rates are not regular and thus we don't think our dividend policy should be either.
Looking at our dividends in a more traditional context, our net income since June 30, 2021, the quarter immediately prior to our first irregular dividend, has been approximately $612 million.
while including the dividend to be paid later this or next month, we will have returned approximately $590 million of dividends.
Speaker Change: Note that that amount excludes the $230 million that we've returned through open market stock repurchases and the self-tender offer. So the $590 million compares favorably to the $612 million.
Speaker Change: In terms of cash flow to equity, that gap is much wider. Thus, overall, we believe that we maintain a responsible and prudent balance between reinvestment and dividend payouts.
We continue to be on the lookout for fleet renewal opportunities and will continue to be judicious with our free cash flow, working to balance shareholder distributions, debt reduction, and fleet investment. With that, I'll pass it over to Tim Hansen.
Thank you, Chet, and good day, everyone.
The quarter ending September 30th, 2024, saw a freight market challenged by external factors.
complicating the product market and the shipping market alike.
with the Hurricane Beryl occurring shortly after the Chile repairs of various U.S. Gulf terminals, Tropical Storm Alberto, and the severe reduction of congestion of the Panama Canal that was seen in May and June.
Speaker Change: It was an unusual quarter. It showed a wide-open arbitrage west to east, but little room for the freight market to capitalise. This was due to the length in vessels' availability and temporarily limited export capacity.
According to several brokers, July 2024 saw the lowest
count of spot fixtures in the US Gulf for many years. The west to east arbitrage was attractive, but hurricane barrel and continued chiller capacity issues at some terminals reduced the slot availability at the terminals for loading.
The short supply of SPOT FOB cargoes saw terminaling fees increase dramatically and resales of cargoes FOBs also saw large sums exchanged.
Ultimately, almost half a million tons less export was seen in July.
delaying the correction that the market wanted to see since June.
Speaker Change: August saw, however, a new record high for LPG exports from the U.S. at about 6 million tons.
going a long way to clearing the backlog of ELDCs that has been building since June. The high level of fixing activity helped push the freight market upwards, but levels were capped by the long position list and aggressive relay of tonnage.
It was also relets in September that drove the U.S. to Far East VLTC market down to levels not seen since February 2024. The decisions made in September were mostly for October Lakehands, and like we saw in April 2024,
It emerged that cargoes on similar lakehands can be $35 to $40 per metric tons apart, depending on time of fixing. It can only be speculated on what drove some dramatic decision-making in September for those discounting the freight market.
But it can be noted that there was uncertainty about how Hurricane Francine would impact the terminals in Texas and the Arab Gulf to Far East market was very weak at the time.
Regarding the Arab Gulf Far East market, it can be noted that the
that for the entirely of the quarter the focus of the spot market was inquiries by Indian public sector undertakings, PSUs, and while the activity was significant for the Indian trade
Speaker Change: The data flows to the Far East makes setting the trade market difficult. At least for all of August and September, the East market traded at significant discounts to the West market.
North Dakota exposed again the importance of the U.S. Gulf exports for the entire LBG market. The belief in the fundamentals of strong LBG demand in the Far East was never in doubt.
North American LPG production continues to grow, and although at times more of the value within the supply chain can be taken by terminals rather than shipping, opportunities afforded by the U.S. exports also prove sufficient to rebalance the market quickly.
Our expectations remain positive for VLTC shipping.
Speaker Change: Based upon propane remaining in the competitive feedstock, additional PDH plant in China, forecast of more export growth from North America, and potential for seeing an increased congestion in the Panama Canal.
Thank you and with that I will pass it over to Mr. John Lycouris.
John Lycouris: Thank you, Tim.
John Lycouris: In continuation of our commitment to sustainability, Dorian LPG strives to improve the energy efficiency of its vessels with a focus on operational and technical performance while continuing to follow and employ technological advances and innovations as they become commercially available in the marine sector.
John Lycouris: Our scrubber vessel savings for the third quarter of 2024 amounted to $2.17 million, or about $1,962 per day net of all scrubber operating expenses.
Fuel differentials between high-sulfur fuel oil and low-sulfuric fuel oil averaged at $115 per metric ton, while the differential of LPG as fuel versus the low-sulfur fuel oil stood at about $185 per metric ton, which is quite advantageous for the two fuel LPG engine vessels.
The total number of owned vessels fitted with scrubber units in our fleet is now 15, after having retrofitted another vessel in the last calendar quarter during this vessel's regular dry docking window.
John Lycouris: The added advantage with scrubber-fated vessels is their eligibility for future installation of carbon capture modules.
John Lycouris: We have also completed the dry docking of two further vessels, including an ammonia as cargo upgrade for one of them.
John Lycouris: There is another ammonia as cargo upgrade for a vessel planned for dry docking by the end of this year.
Upon completion of this last vessel, the Dorian LPG fleet will have three VLGC-VLAC vessels capable for ammonia cargoes in the water, and one new building to be delivered in 2026.
John Lycouris: We anticipate an intensive schedule of dry dockings this coming year and next for the global VLGC fleet.
John Lycouris: About 80 VLGCs were built in the 2015-2016 period.
John Lycouris: Most Dorian LPG vessels were built in 2015, and for those that have not yet dry docked, we would be looking to dry dock and complete their second five-year service cycle early this next year.
The MEPC-82 took place at the IMO headquarters in London at the end of September and beginning of October.
Some of the significant outcomes of the MEPC-82 were the adoption of amendments to the Marble Annex VI to give effect to the Canadian Arctic and the Norwegian Sea ECAs and Mission Control Areas for SOCs and NOCs.
and it is expected to enter into force on the 1st of March, 2026.
There was also progression and refinement of the regulatory text for mid-term greenhouse gas measures and scheduling for a further intersessional greenhouse gas working group in February 2025.
No formal decisions on future emission regulations were made at this MEPC meeting.
The most reliable insight into the likely outcome of the next MEPC83 in mid-2025 comes from the nature of the ongoing debate at the MEPC82 floor.
John Lycouris: That discussion included detailed proposals and increasingly focused options for each of the following elements, which are well-to-wake and tank-to-wake for the greenhouse gas fuel intensity.
Speaker Change: The Wind Assisted Propulsion System offers benefits within current and upcoming regulatory frameworks.
in particular, Vestal is equipped with WAPs.
This wind-assisted propulsion systems technology may qualify for the wind reward factor under fuel-easy maritime.
which effectively lowers the vessel's calculated energy intensity and helps vessels meet emission targets while reducing their overall regulatory costs.
Selecting WAPS technology that is both efficient and straightforward to install and operate can be a pivotal step in the energy transition, delivering a cost-effective path toward reduced emissions and seamless regulatory compliance.
Speaker Change: And now I would like to pass it over to John Hadjipatera for his final comments.
John Hadjipatera: Thanks, John. Thank you. We can take any questions if anyone has any questions for us.
Before we do, I'd like to go back on a comment I made about the medium term.
Medium-term optimism and amongst other factors is based on two terminal big terminal expansions that we can
See, I said second half twenty-six, but...
In fact, the first is coming in the second half of 2025 with TARGA and energy transfer up to 8 million tons. And the other one will be Enterprise second half 2026 with 10 to 15 million tons.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Mickey, over to you. Thank you. And with the prepared remarks completed, we will now open the line for questions. If you would like to ask a question, please press the star and 1 on your telephone keypad.
Speaker Change: I will take our first question from Omar Nocta with Jeffreys. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Omar Nocta: Thank you. Hey guys, good morning.
A couple of questions from my side and maybe John sort of on your left comments there. And Ted, I know, you know, you and I have spoken about this quite a bit, just regarding.
Yeah, the VLGC spot rates, what we've been seeing here recently, especially with what's going on with U.S. terminal capacity, obviously capacity here near-term has been limited. That's causing a jump in spot terminal fees.
which in turn is compressing the export ARB and putting maybe a cap on freight rates at the moment.
Speaker Change: Thank you.
the expansion projects that come on next year and then the 26th.
Speaker Change: Do you think that that means we're perhaps in this soft patch for the next few quarters in which VLGC rates may be not, they may not capture their historical...
ratio of that arbitrage, but then once those terminals expand we can start to see the rates, you know, revert to their their norms.
and when I say norms, you know, norms in relation to the art.
Yeah, I don't really, to be honest. I think that the factors like the efficiency of the canal transit feature more prominently than the export capacity restriction.
So that's that's kind of what I feel. I think that
and inefficiencies in fleet utilization.
which is a feature that we saw.
Speaker Change: last year, you know, to a great extent, due to the Panama Canal.
transits, and I think it's reasonable to expect in the next couple of quarters
that the canal will become less efficient for VLGCs because the demand for transit from LNG
and containers will increase. So as much as anyone can guess, and it's obviously very difficult to do, I don't think that there's a cap necessarily.
on that, and certainly not because of the...
Got it. Thanks. That's quite helpful. Appreciate you saying that.
kind of on where we are in the marketplace. I guess we're at that time of year where US LPG inventories start to maybe level out after building for several months.
Do you think that this winter, you know, based off what you're seeing, will bring that same type of seasonality where U.S. consumption rises, leads to higher prices domestically here, also putting pressure on the ARB and then, you know, impacting rates, or do you think something is different perhaps this winter? Anything you can...
you can talk about there.
sort of for colder winter here.
So that should put a bit of pressure on the arm.
And so far, at least, they have been for a kind of more moderate winter in Asia.
But, you know, just as this was revised for here, it can easily be revised for Asia, too. So it's kind of betting on the weather, I think, to a large extent.
Speaker Change: for the immediate term. And that's my feeling. I don't know whether Tim could add a little more color being on the front lines of the market.
Tim, you want to have a go at it?
Yeah, I think, as you say, the weather and the Panama Canal are really the two most important things. So we haven't... I mean, we have a very warm...
weather in the in the east right now so the urgency for stocking up for the winter have not really started yet but that could change.
Speaker Change: very quickly. I mean, as you said, there was a prediction it was going to be warmer in the east than usual, but the latest we saw was another analyst saying that it was going to be
cold or so, so again the sentiment can change very very quickly in the East.
When there's a pull on the east, the...
to withstand the exports. So we expect maximum exports to the east and with the production sufficient product to satisfy the US market, albeit the inland prices may go up a bit. So really the shipping market depends on the
Speaker Change: on the pull from the east and especially the Panama Canal.
Speaker Change: Okay, thanks Tim. And then just the final one for me, and Ted, I think you did mention it, but can you just remind, say it again, sorry, just the bookings that have been covered thus far and then just what those refer to.
Yep, so for this current quarter, the one ending December 31, 2024
Ted Young: we estimate that we have fixed just over 60% of the available days at a TCE in excess of 40,000 per day. That's only for the Helios pool, and that includes both spot fixtures, time charters, and estimates for the COAs.
Okay, perfect. Okay, thanks guys. I'll turn it over. Thanks, Omar. Thank you, Omar.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Clement Mullins with Value Investors Edge. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Bye bye.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.
I wanted to start by asking about the year-to-date decline in exports from the Middle East.
To what extent is that attributable to the oil output cuts? And should those be eased going forward? Do you expect Middle Eastern volumes to increase?
The answer to the last point, yes, and yes, yes, they do, the exports of LPG from the Middle East are
are very related to the output. So if OPEC plus...
Speaker Change: increase that we expect.
You know, so it's not a perfect correlation, but there is, you know, all in all, it's correlated. Sometimes there's some distortions, like Saudi Arabia uses LPG internally, but in general, we would expect if...
Speaker Change: OPEC plus ease, they increase their production, their exports, then we would see more volume of LPG also from the Middle East.
Speaker Change: That's helpful. Thank you.
I also wanted to ask about the ammonia trade. It will still take a while for this trade to truly, let's say, live up to expectations, but could you talk a bit about the timeline you see? When do you expect volumes to start to have a meaningful effect on the overall BLGC trade?
Speaker Change: So it's one of those things, the way I look at it is one of those things that's long and coming.
and then comes suddenly. So at the moment, we are not seeing as much development of green ammonia trade as has had generally been expected by the industry.
Speaker Change: which caused this new building kind of surge in the last 12 months or so.
But there are prospects for it to develop. There are some projects that are already kind of a little bit beyond the planning stage. And there's more.
There's more consideration of blue ammonia.
will be carrying ammonia when they're delivered. I think when it happens, it could happen quickly enough to have a positive effect and absorb that tonnage.
That's how we're looking at it at the moment.
Thanks for the caller. That's all from me. Thank you for taking my questions. Thank you for your questions.
Thank you and this will conclude our Q&A session. I will now turn the call over to management for closing remarks.
Well, my closing remark is to thank you all. We're beginning to enter the holiday season, so hopefully higher freight rates and everybody have a good time and see you again in January.
Thank you. And this will conclude today's call. Thank you all for your participation, and you may disconnect at any time.
Speaker Change: Thank you.