Q4 2024 The AZEK Co Inc Earnings Call
Speaker Change: Welcome to the AZEC company's fourth quarter fiscal 2024 earnings call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
Speaker Change: I would now like to hand the conference over to Eric Robinson. Please go ahead, Eric. Thank you and good afternoon, everyone.
Eric Robinson: The earnings press release was also furnished by 8k on the SEC's website
Eric Robinson: I'm joined today by Jesse Singh, our Chief Executive Officer, and Peter Clifford, our Chief Operations Officer and Chief Financial Officer.
Eric Robinson: I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we may make certain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including remarks about future expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, plans, and prospects.
Eric Robinson: Such statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, as described in our periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Eric Robinson: We do not undertake any duty to update such forward-looking statements.
Eric Robinson: Additionally, during today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance.
Eric Robinson: These non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP.
Eric Robinson: Reconciliations of such non-GAAP measures can be found in our earnings press release and supplemental earnings presentation, which are posted on our website.
Speaker Change: Now, let me turn the call over to ASIC's CEO, Jesse Singh.
Jesse Singh: Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. The AZAC team delivered another strong year, achieving record financial results that reflect our team's dedication to our mission of revolutionizing outdoor living and delivering sustained growth and margin expansion.
Jesse Singh: The successful execution of our strategic growth initiatives in fiscal 2024 led to high single-digit year-over-year residential sell-through growth and 12% year-over-year net sales growth.
Jesse Singh: This 12% growth was achieved on top of growing the residential business 5% in 2023 and 12% in 2022.
Jesse Singh: Since 2020, our residential business has grown 77%. We have delivered nine consecutive years of residential segment growth. And in 2024, we once again outperformed the broader repair and remodel market.
Jesse Singh: Our deck rail and accessories business continues to lead the industry and delivered 18% sales growth for fiscal 2024.
Jesse Singh: Our continued focus on manufacturing productivity, cost reduction initiatives, sourcing, and operating leverage enabled us to deliver net profit margin expansion
Jesse Singh: of 600 basis points year over year to 10.6% and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 560 basis points year over year to a record 26.3%.
Jesse Singh: We expanded our margins while making incremental investments in SG&A, expanding our production, and launching new products.
Jesse Singh: We generated strong cash flow, invested in future manufacturing and recycling capacity, and returned $243 million to shareholders through our Share Repurchase Program.
Jesse Singh: Our multi-year track record and demonstrated ability to outperform across various market backdrops give us confidence in our ability to continue driving growth and margin expansion through ASAC-specific initiatives in fiscal 2025 and beyond.
Jesse Singh: Our performance is a result of the dedication and passion of AZEX team members and partners to deliver the best products and experience to our customers.
Jesse Singh: For the full year, fiscal 2024, deck rail and accessories sell-through grew double digits year over year, with each of the product lines growing over 10 percent.
Jesse Singh: Overall, residential segment sell-through grew high single digits for the year, including the exteriors business, which, as discussed, saw some softness in the back half of the year.
Jesse Singh: Our growth is a direct result of our new products, channel expansion initiatives, downstream sales engagement, and brand investments.
Jesse Singh: During the fiscal fourth quarter, deck rail and accessories sell-through grew high single digits and exteriors grew low single digits year-over-year, improving modestly from the previous quarter.
Jesse Singh: As we progressed through the fourth quarter, we saw improvement and sell-through growth.
We have seen strength across pro and retail channel sell-through.
Jesse Singh: Our channel partners, sales team and operations have worked together and done a great job of managing inventory while delivering very high service levels to our customers.
Jesse Singh: We continue to see strong growth in our internal digital and engagement metrics and believe that there is underlying demand in repair and remodel and new construction markets that will be realized as the broader market and consumer confidence improve.
Jesse Singh: Market trends including an aging housing stock, the expansion of Millennials as homeowners, a shift to more sustainable materials, and an increased focus on outdoor living should provide a growth environment for years to come.
Jesse Singh: As part of our continuing strategy, we are investing across our core strengths of research and development, innovation, brand, customer relationships, and our world-class manufacturing operations.
Jesse Singh: In 2024, we saw incremental growth from new products and expect that these recent product launches will contribute to incremental growth in 2025.
Jesse Singh: We recently announced three new product platforms for 2025 and believe that these launches will have an even greater impact on our future revenue opportunity.
Jesse Singh: Collectively, our 2024 and 2025 new products will allow us to access more than $2 billion of addressable market opportunity.
Jesse Singh: As part of sustaining our decking portfolio leadership, we recently launched the TimberTech Harvest Plus collection.
that offers homeowners the benefits of advanced PVC decking.
Jesse Singh: which combines cool touch and fire-resistant functionality with a beautifully aged natural visual.
Jesse Singh: In our exteriors business, we continue to expand last year's launch of the Versatec Xceed lap siding product, which provides a premium alternative to vinyl siding.
Jesse Singh: This product line will be manufactured in our new exteriors capacity expansion in Aliquippa, Pennsylvania.
Jesse Singh: In addition to ongoing line extensions in the business, we launched an entirely new trim platform, TrimLogic, a paintable PVC exterior trim targeting wood replacement in the more value-oriented part of the market.
Jesse Singh: This new technology leverages our proprietary recycle technology and is made with up to 95% recycled PVC material.
Jesse Singh: This is a major breakthrough in sustainable building materials and puts us in an even greater position to access and convert the over 1 billion part of the trim market that is still wood.
Jesse Singh: In our railing portfolio, we are launching two new platforms to access a much broader percentage of the rail market.
Jesse Singh: We discussed the Fulton Steel Rail in our last call, but we are also excited about our new TimberTech Reliance Rail, which is a premium aesthetic, value-oriented vinyl rail product.
Jesse Singh: Earlier this year, we acquired a vinyl railing OEM and made investments to create this exciting new product.
Jesse Singh: This product leverages our proprietary PVC recycling capability and our differentiated PVC aesthetic to create a competitive alternative to other vinyl and wood railing products.
Jesse Singh: With this product launch, we will be able to access the larger goods segment of the rail market and more aggressively target the approximately 65% of the market that is still wood.
Jesse Singh: We believe we are in a terrific position to go after the approximately $275 million vinyl rail market and the over $1 billion wood rail market.
Jesse Singh: The launch of these new products highlight our ability to offer a balanced portfolio across decking, railing, and exterior categories at multiple price points and features.
Jesse Singh: New products are fundamental to what we do, and innovation is a core value.
Jesse Singh: The expense associated with our new product launches are part of our ongoing investments in SG&A, and we do expect to see some modest impact on our gross margins as we ramp up these exciting new products.
Jesse Singh: During the quarter, we welcome Rakesh Mohan to our team as our Chief Digital and Technology Officer.
Jesse Singh: Rakesh brings years of technology and AI experience to our team and joins us from Linux International.
Jesse Singh: Behind the scenes, we have been making investments and believe that these investments in technology-enabled solutions will expand our customer solutions in the coming months and years.
Jesse Singh: Our investments in marketing and sales are driving significant momentum in our brand awareness among both homeowners and professional contractors.
Jesse Singh: Timber Tech was also recognized by Good Housekeeping's 2025 Home Renovation Awards for our innovative Timber Tech Vintage Collection, leveraging our advanced PVC fire-resistant technology.
Jesse Singh: As mentioned on our last call, we are uniquely positioned with not only a Class A flame designation, but also in being designated as ignition resistant in the state of California.
We recently made certain distribution changes.
Jesse Singh: that we believe will better align our company for the next phase of growth and material conversion.
Jesse Singh: We have terrific partners and believe that our recent changes will increase the penetration of underserved markets and the expansion of our product portfolio.
Jesse Singh: Our new product platforms have put us in a great position to work with our channel partners and our contractors to provide a higher value and more complete solution to our customers.
Jesse Singh: We will continue to optimize our business and channels to better position ourselves for future growth, brand building, market penetration, and material conversion.
Jesse Singh: As we move into fiscal 2025, we expect our company-specific initiatives to once again provide us with an opportunity to outperform the market.
Jesse Singh: We are seeing the benefit of our multi-year brand and consumer journey investments and our focus on broad material conversion.
Jesse Singh: Residential sell-through growth continues to be positive and channel inventories exiting the fiscal year were below historical averages.
Jesse Singh: We believe that there is underlying R&R demand that will be realized as the broader market improves.
Jesse Singh: Our fiscal year 2025 planning assumptions assume an approximately flat repair and remodel market and consistent with our historical track record, we would expect to outperform the market again driven by ASEC specific initiatives.
Jesse Singh: While not currently in our assumption, if we start to see a recovery of the broader R&R market, we would expect to see a benefit during the year.
Jesse Singh: We have started the year similar to how we ended 2024, with double-digit sell-through growth in October year-over-year and a planning assumption of mid-single-digit sell-through growth in fiscal year 2025.
Jesse Singh: We continue to see positive momentum on our margins as we drive our continuous improvement, recycling initiatives and leverage.
Jesse Singh: Our margin initiatives put us in a good position to sustain and expand margins while making investments to drive new product growth, channel growth, and brand awareness.
Jesse Singh: Our current planning assumption is to grow our residential segment by 5-7% and residential segment adjusted EBITDA by 6-10% year-over-year.
Jesse Singh: Overall, on a consolidated basis, we expect to grow our net sales 5-7% year-over-year and our adjusted EBITDA in the 5-9% range.
Speaker Change: I will now turn the call over to Peter to provide some additional context on our financial results and outlook.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Jesse. Good afternoon, everyone. As Eric highlighted at the beginning of the call, we have uploaded a supplemental earnings presentation on the investor relations portion of our website. Before we get into the fourth quarter and full year 24 results, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on the past year.
Speaker Change: When we offered our planning assumptions back in November 2023, we were facing uncertainty in the macro environment. At the time, we said our ambitions were clear that we wanted to execute at a high level against the following. From a growth perspective, we wanted to outperform the R&R market by 5 to 7 percent.
Speaker Change: the Eric Grove playbook. From a margin perspective, we wanted to make significant progress executing against our margin expansion opportunities.
Speaker Change: From a portfolio perspective, we wanted to continue to drive the portfolio closer to pure-plate residential focus.
Speaker Change: From a free cash flow perspective, we wanted to generate attractive free cash flow via strong cash conversion as well as disciplined capex.
Speaker Change: From a capital deployment perspective, we wanted to be good stewards of our capital. And lastly, from a sustainability perspective, we wanted to make progress in our journey to utilize more landfill-bound recycled materials in our products.
Speaker Change: On all these points, the ASIC team was able to effectively manage the business and outperform expectations in fiscal 2024. From a growth perspective, our growth playbook enabled high single-digit residential self-care growth.
Speaker Change: all while experiencing a flattish decking market and modestly negative exteriors market.
Speaker Change: From a margin perspective, we expanded our adjusted EBITDA margins by 560 base points while still investing in growth initiatives within SG&A.
Speaker Change: From a portfolio perspective, we found a better owner of the Viacom business at a reasonable valuation.
Speaker Change: From a cash generation perspective, we generated $224 million of cash from operations and approximately $150 million of free cash flow during the year.
Speaker Change: From a capital deployment perspective, with the strength of our cash generation, coupled with the proceeds from the sale of the Viacom business, we've repurchased $243 million of stock during the year.
Speaker Change: As well, we approved the new $600 million share repurchase program.
Speaker Change: refinanced our Term Loan B, retired $150 million in debt, and expanded our capacity by $225 million with a new cash flow revolver.
Speaker Change: And lastly, from a sustainability perspective, we increased the recycle content of our extruded products from approximately 57% in full year 23 to approximately 64% in full year 24.
Speaker Change: In 4Q24, we experienced high single-digit sell-through growth in our deck rail and accessories portfolio, including our pergola business.
Speaker Change: and a low single-digit positive cell proof at our exteriors portfolio to bring total residential cell proof to approximately high single digits.
Speaker Change: In 4Q, we continue to work with our channel partners to keep channel inventory levels low given our compressed manufacturing lead times.
Speaker Change: We ended September with channel inventory days on hand approximately 10% below historical levels and similar days on hand versus the prior year.
Speaker Change: Consistent with past quarters, we surveyed a broad base of both our contractors as well as our dealers to better understand the environment on the ground. We pride ourselves on being a company that stays close to its customers.
Speaker Change: Our contractors reported continued stability with their backlogs remaining at 7 plus weeks, just above pre-pandemic levels. From a sediment perspective, our contractors and dealers continue to see a constructive growth environment in the quarter and through the near term.
Speaker Change: On the digital side, we saw strength in both samples and contractor leads.
Speaker Change: From an operating perspective, we continue to see stability in our manufacturing environment. Production levels were consistent with the prior year material input costs.
Speaker Change: remain stable and non-inflationary, and we continue to make incremental advances in our productivity, sourcing savings, and recycling initiatives to drive gross margin expansion year-over-year.
Speaker Change: For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, we delivered consolidated net sales of $348 million, which was above both consensus as well as the top of our guidance range.
Our 4Q24 net sales were impacted.
Speaker Change: by the previously discussed timing of channel partner purchases to achieve higher service levels in the prior quarter and the $18 million net impact from the divestiture of our Viacom business in our commercial segment.
Speaker Change: For T-24, gross profit came in at $130 million and gross margin was 37.3%.
Speaker Change: 4Q adjusted gross profit came in at $134 million, and adjusted gross profit margin percent was 38.4%.
Speaker Change: The adjusted gross profit decline was driven primarily by the previously mentioned lower sales volume.
Speaker Change: Gap SG&A expenses decreased by $6 million year-over-year to $79 million. The decrease is primarily driven by a normalization of marketing expense, as well as modest reductions in administrative costs.
Speaker Change: Adjusted SG&A expenses decreased by 5 million year-over-year to 66 million.
Speaker Change: Adjusted EBITDA for 4Q24 decreased by 10 million, or 10% year-over-year, to 92 million. The adjusted EBITDA rate for the quarter increased 10 basis points year-over-year to 26.3%.
Speaker Change: Net income for 4Q24 decreased year-over-year by $11 million to $28 million, or $0.19 per share. Adjusted net income for 4Q24 decreased year-over-year by $9 million to $42 million.
or adjusted diluted EPS of 29 cents per share.
Speaker Change: Now turning to our segment results, residential segment at sales for 4Q24 were $327 million, down 6% year-over-year driven by the previously discussed timing of channel partner purchases to achieve higher service levels in the prior quarter.
Speaker Change: Residential segment adjusted EBITDA for 4Q24 came in at $86 million, down 7% year-over-year.
Residential segment adjusts even on margins for 26.3 percent.
Speaker Change: Commercial segment net sales for the quarter were 21 million down 47% year over year primarily due to the sale of Viacom business earlier in the fiscal year.
Speaker Change: Commercial segment adjusted EBITDA for the quarter came in at $5.8 million, a decrease of $3.4 million year-over-year. Again, primarily driven by the disposition of the Viacom business.
Speaker Change: From the balance sheet and cash flow perspective, we ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of 164 million and approximately 373 million available for future borrowings under our revolving credit facility.
Speaker Change: Working capital, defined as inventory plus accounts receivable minus accounts payable, was $216 million, up $19 million year-over-year. We ended the quarter with gross debt of $529 million, which included approximately $89 million of finance leases.
Speaker Change: Net bet was $365 million and our net leverage ratio stood at one times at the end of 4Q24.
that cash from operations.
Speaker Change: was $60 million during the fourth quarter, a decrease of $66 million year-over-year. Capital expenditures for the quarter were approximately $23 million.
Speaker Change: For the fourth quarter, pre-cash flow was $38 million, a decrease of $54 million year-over-year. As previously announced, we initiated a $50 million accelerated sharer purchase in August.
Speaker Change: Under the terms of the agreement, the company received an initial 1 million shares for final settlement expected in the first quarter of 2025.
Speaker Change: The company also repurchased an additional 448,000 shares in open market transactions for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $18 million.
Speaker Change: The remaining authorization under our share repurchase program is approximately $560 million.
Speaker Change: Our capital allocation priorities remain the same as we previously communicated. We will continue to invest in our business both organically and inorganically. And to the extent we have excess cash flow, we will look to repurchase shares opportunistically.
Speaker Change: We are assuming for the full year 2025 that the R&R market will be approximately flattish.
Speaker Change: Even with a flat market, we are incredibly confident that our ASIC growth playbook and specific ASIC carryover wins will enable us to continue to drive above-market growth. Our planning assumptions have incorporated the potential impact of retail and pro-channel activity for the year.
Speaker Change: We expect to grow our residential net sales by approximately 6% year-over-year in fiscal 2025 at the midpoint of our planning assumptions.
Speaker Change: Some of these carryover impacts and growth assumptions drives our high-level planning assumptions for fiscal 2025 to $1.51 billion to $1.54 billion in revenue and $400 million to $415 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Speaker Change: Our net sales guidance range would imply 5-7% year-over-year growth and 5-9% year-over-year growth and are adjusted even on.
A Residential Segment Planning Assumption for the Year
is 1.439.
to $1.466 billion in net sales.
Speaker Change: and $388 million to $401 million in segment-adjusted EBITDA, representing 5% to 7% net sales growth year-over-year and 6% to 10% segment-adjusted EBITDA growth.
Speaker Change: A few other assumptions for fiscal 2025 to share include the following.
Speaker Change: We are expecting a capital expenditure range of $85 to $95 million, consistent with our publicly stated target of CapEx of approximately 5 to 7% of revenue.
We are expecting depreciation of approximately $94 to $98 million.
Speaker Change: We are expecting interest expense of approximately $27 million to $31 million.
Speaker Change: We are targeting working capital approximately flat as a percent of sales at 15 percent.
Speaker Change: And finally, as detailed earlier, we are expecting a gap tax rate for the full year of approximately 27 percent.
Speaker Change: For additional planning assumptions to assist with modeling fiscal year 2025, please refer to the Supplemental Learnings presentation we have posted on our Investor Relations website.
Speaker Change: Before we turn to our guide for the first quarter, I wanted to provide context for the operating environment we expect in Fiscal 1 Q25.
Speaker Change: For the quarter, we are expecting residential sell-through growth in the mid to high single-digit range.
Speaker Change: From an inventory staging perspective, we expect our channel to remain conservative and exit the first quarter with channel inventory at or below historical days on hand, in line with the last couple of years' behavior.
Speaker Change: As a revider, this is the period of the year in which the industry negotiates shelf space positions and stages inventory in the channel ahead of the upcoming building season.
ASEC historically shifts channel inventory replenishment.
Speaker Change: otherwise known as Early Buy in our second fiscal quarter and we are assuming that effectively all of this volume will ship in fiscal 2Q25.
Speaker Change: Channel inventories were positioned conservatively at fiscal year-end and we are proactively managing our own finished goods inventory levels to maintain high levels of service.
Speaker Change: I want to note that our guidance does not include the impact of our Western distribution alignment, which could be modestly favorable for the first half of 2025, but we are not certain of the timing between fiscal 1Q25 and fiscal 2Q at this time.
Speaker Change: From an operating perspective, we expect continued stability in our manufacturing environment. We expect stable and non-inflationary material input costs, production levels relatively flat compared to the prior year, and continued progress against our productivity initiatives.
Speaker Change: Taking these factors into consideration, our guidance for the quarter is $260 million to $266 million in revenue, and $58 million to $60 million in adjusted EBIT odds.
Speaker Change: Our net sales guidance range would imply 8-11% year-over-year growth and 6-9% year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA. As a reminder, our prior year 1Q24 results included one month
Speaker Change: of our Viacom ownership, which contributed approximately $3 million of net sales and negligible adjusted EBITDA for the quarter's results prior to the divestiture.
Speaker Change: A residential segment guidance for the quarter is $247 million to $252 million in net sales and $57 million to $59 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Speaker Change: Our net sales guidance range would imply 11-13% year-over-year growth and 9-13% year-over-year growth and segment-adjusted EBITDA. We are expecting an effective tax rate of approximately 27% for the quarter.
Speaker Change: Our team is excited, engaged, and well-prepared to tackle the environment in front of us in fiscal 2025. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Jesse for some closing remarks.
Jesse Singh: Thanks Pete. We delivered another strong year of financial performance thanks to our dedicated team members, channel and supplier partners, contractors, and homeowners that share the same vision as the AZEC company.
Jesse Singh: We are well positioned to drive growth in fiscal year 2025 and double-digit growth and margin expansion over the long term by continuing to execute our strategy.
With that, operator, please open the line for questions.
Speaker Change: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again.
Speaker Change: Please limit to just one question per caller so we can get to everyone in the queue.
Speaker Change: Your first question comes from the line of Matthew Boley with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Good evening, you have Anika Dahlakia on for Matt today. Thank you for taking my question. So I just wanted to hone in on sell-through a little bit.
Speaker Change: on your fiscal year 25 assumption for mid-single-digit sell-through, wondering if you can parse out how we should think about this in terms of deck versus exterior, and then wondering
Speaker Change: If there's any read-throughs from how your channel partners are thinking about inventories or just their overall outlook for 2025. Thanks.
Speaker Change: Yeah, thanks for the question. I'll just start with, you know, as we highlighted, five percent.
Speaker Change: to the number we started with last year at this time. It's assuming a zero growth market. And then on top of that, we have an intent to drive growth above that. So that's how you get to the 5%. We're not necessarily parsing out.
Speaker Change: between the two businesses. I think if you look at our track record.
Over the long horizon, the two businesses have been
Speaker Change: relatively similar. I think if you look at us in our most recent quarters you would see decking being a bit higher.
Speaker Change: as we have called out than our exteriors business. So, you know, it's safe to assume.
Speaker Change: you know that modestly decking might be higher but once again we're not
Speaker Change: at that level of specificity. And then relative to channel sentiment...
Speaker Change: It's positive. I think people are waiting for the season to unfold. We've had good demand in the quarter that we're in. We ended last quarter with good demand.
Speaker Change: and I think they're setting up, similar to this year for us,
Speaker Change: They are setting up to have a relatively normal year, and I think they're approaching
Speaker Change: their buying patterns and how they view the opportunity in a very normalized fashion. So you should expect and we expect a pretty normal progression as we go through 2025.
Great. Thank you. Good luck. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from Susan McLaurie with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.
Speaker Change: My first question is thinking just a bit about the SG&A as we move through the year. Given the new product launches and the efforts to support some of these distribution wins, just any thought on the marketing, the sales effort, and how that will flow through over the next couple quarters?
Speaker Change: Yeah, I think one of the things that we did very well this year was continue to to invest and double down on growth opportunities within the marketplace
Speaker Change: and what gave us that flexibility was strong execution on the gross margins. I think that's a philosophy that we would carry forward to 2025. Any extra strength we might see in gross margins, we would want to withhold the right to continue to invest some of that back into growth on the SG&A side. So I'd say more of the same soon.
Speaker Change: Yeah, and I think, you know, and I called it up in our prepared remarks
We have been launching new products and bringing
Speaker Change: new solutions to the market pretty consistently over the last few years.
Speaker Change: That, I would say, is embedded in our SG&A. It's part of how we operate, and so this level of activity, you know, albeit a little higher this year with the terrific new product launches we have, is not unusual for us in that we constantly invest in expansion.
Speaker Change: Okay, that's helpful. And then, you know, you mentioned that your overall guide implies a flat R&R, so there's potential that you could see some upside there that does end up being a bit stronger than you expect. What are you thinking of the setup that could drive some of that recovery in R&R, and how do you think about the potential that decking could outperform just broader R&R on its own in there, and what that could imply for your growth this year?
Speaker Change: Yeah, I think in general, if you step back and you look at our growth thesis, and once again, we've got a 10-year track record now of 12% CAGR.
Speaker Change: If you look at that growth thesis, it's typically R and R. On top of that, you get a benefit in material conversion, which benefits us on both of our products.
Speaker Change: And then you get a bit more of an emphasis on outdoor living, which historically has outgrown that, and then of course you've got
Speaker Change: company specific initiatives. So all of that is what historically we've stacked up to our 11 plus percent growth algorithm. So I think as we look at the market moving forward, there's certainly a fair amount of
of third parties that are talking about increased R&R growth.
Speaker Change: I think for us, as we come into the year, we just think it's prudent to assume flat. It would be unusual to have three straight years of either flat or negative in the R&R space.
Speaker Change: almost unprecedented, but as a planning assumption starting out similar to what we did last year, we think it's appropriate to assume a flattish market and then see where the market ends up.
Speaker Change: Okay, thank you both for the color. Good luck with everything. Appreciate it, thank you.
Speaker Change: All right, our next question comes from the line of Michael Rehart with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Hi everyone, this is Andrew Ozzie on for Michael Rahat. I appreciate you taking my questions. I just want to, I would love to get a better sense of how sales are trending by price point maybe within your good, better, best category framework.
Speaker Change: Yeah, this is Peter. Just, you know, in terms of, you know, premium versus entry, what I would say is, look, we're not seeing anything meaningful from a mixed-down perspective. That's been pretty consistent all year. The premium category growth rates are robust.
Speaker Change: You know, our good category, as we've called out for the last couple of quarters.
Speaker Change: is growing modestly faster, and we view that really as sheer pickup. We've been out of that entry price point largely coming out of the pandemic when we didn't have capacity, and we've relaunched kind of Prime and Prime Plus and supported that with capacity, and that's paying dividends.
Thank you, I appreciate that and then, you know, from
Speaker Change: If I could get a rough sense of the sales impact from kind of your
Speaker Change: distribution expansion within Canada and even very recently your partnership with Capital Lumber in the West. We'd love to get some way to think about kind of the sales impact from that.
Speaker Change: Yeah, you know, at a high level, we haven't necessarily called that out. I think if you look at what we talked about on the last call in Canada with Dillman,
Speaker Change: That gives us access where we had single distribution, and we now have double distribution. And it gives us access to the western part of Canada. I think on the capital front, it really sets us up with their downstream focus to continue to drive.
Speaker Change: more conversion. I think what Pete called out in his prepared remarks is we do expect some benefit in the first half of the year from our Western distribution expansion and you know, so we will see
some incremental volume as we progress in Q1 and Q2.
Speaker Change: And that would potentially be upside to our guide. And just to frame that a bit, it's about approximately $10 million and that's potential upside of 5 million within Q1.
Speaker Change: Got it. Very exciting. I appreciate it. I'll pass it on.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from the line of Tim Weiss with Baird. Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Hey guys, good evening. I said nice job. I guess maybe just first question, you know, Jesse, you know, if you just kind of step back and you look at the cell phone numbers.
Speaker Change: You know kind of kind of reaccelerating here kind of kind of q3 to q4 and adjusting to q1 You know anything as you've kind of you know looked at data or kind of talk to your channel partners that that would kind of You know kind of drive the reasons behind that that reacceleration
Speaker Change: Yeah, first it's a good question and we have chatted with a number of channel partners
Historically, when we came into August, late July into August,
Speaker Change: There would be a little bit of a pause in particular and think of Long Island and the Cape and areas where people are vacationing.
Speaker Change: There'd be a bit of a slowdown in demand, and then seasonally that demand...
Speaker Change: would pick back up as, you know, in the fall, think of September, October, and if the weather's good, into November. And I think as we've seen this play out, you know, it seems to be going back to a more seasonal
Speaker Change: pattern, you know, almost a, you know, a back-to-school kind of last
Speaker Change: working on the house pattern on the DIY side, and then a similar set of activity in the contractor side.
Speaker Change: I think we've seen positives throughout the year and this pattern of a little bit of a slowdown in August and and a bit more of a re-acceleration in the fall is is not unusual and
Speaker Change: And, you know, we view this whole thing as coming back to normal. You might see and hear that there may have been a pause related to the election. I don't know that we can see that. We saw that pattern of things coming back prior to the election.
Speaker Change: Okay, okay, that's helpful. Thanks. And then just, I guess, as you kind of look at the price-cost equation, you know, Pete, kind of in fiscal 25, any kind of puts and takes you would kind of outline there?
Speaker Change: Yeah, I just say similar to 24, you know, I'd say, you know, the assumption on the pricing side for 25 is not quite back to normal pricing on decking, but closer to it.
Speaker Change: And as we saw in 24, we'll continue to have a little bit of backside kind of program management, primarily on the exterior side. And that kind of 100 to 150 basis points, so it's called net pricing positive, but negligible, probably less than a point.
Speaker Change: Right now, just from a commodity perspective, it's the best news, I guess, that it's kind of boring right now that ultimately a couple of months ago it felt like there might be some inflation creeping in, and in the last 45 to 60 days it feels like more of a stable deflationary environment, if anything.
Okay, we'll take four. Thanks a lot guys.
Great, thanks Kevin.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from the line of Phil Ng with Jeffries. Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Hey guys, congrats on a solid quarter and strong finish to the year. I guess if I had to nitpick, I mean, certainly margins, you guys are calling for decent margin expansion, call it 20 to 60 basis points, but I would have thought with all the self-help initiatives.
Speaker Change: You could drive perhaps more than that. You did kind of allude to maybe some investments. Can you, Pete, perhaps call that out, how much of a drag that might be or load in?
Speaker Change: And as we look out longer-term, you're not far from your longer-term margin targets, what are some of the levers that you have at disposal? Just remind us where you are with, like, the recycling and some of the product reconfiguration stuff.
Speaker Change: Well, a couple of things that make sort of the fourth quarter a little bit unique, so obviously last year we called out, we had kind of a one-time benefit on some utility bills of about $1.8 million that didn't reoccur. We had the lowest kind of...
assistance on sort of the pricing.
Speaker Change: on the transition on their inventory stocks. Those are a couple of things that are kind of...
Speaker Change: both impacting the year-over-year kind of fourth quarter quality of earnings.
Speaker Change: But as we look out the next year, I think the opportunity set is still the same.
Speaker Change: that we laid out at 2022 Investor Day. I think we've kind of said in general a quarter or two ago we probably executed about
Speaker Change: against about half of that opportunity set, so there's still plenty of headroom.
Speaker Change: our exteriors business as well as sort of our move to low density.
You know, we're making good traction on product configuration.
Speaker Change: And certainly, I think we demonstrated very well this year that every incremental pound of sales gives us incremental pounds of production, which gives us a tremendous opportunity to leverage those in the plants. And as Jesse mentioned earlier, certainly, if R&R is better than what we pegged, you know, traditionally, we put out there an incremental margin rate of kind of mid 30s. And depending upon the magnitude of that upside, if it were significant, again, I think we feel really positive that our plants have responded well to incremental pounds of production.
And just your question on the target...
Speaker Change: Obviously, we're well on our way to achieving that by 2027. I think the way you should look at it right now is
Speaker Change: and once again it's within our control, investment, how we launch products, all of that but you know you should look at it as you know we're on track to achieve that earlier.
Okay, super and from a cash flow standpoint
Speaker Change: John Cashel, you guys bought back a decent amount of stock. When you look at the 2025, Jesse, how are you thinking about your priorities? Are you going to get back in the M&A market? Have you seen some opportunities out there that could be compelling versus buybacks? How do you think about it?
Jesse Singh: Yeah, you know, at a high level, the priorities continue to be the same, which is, you know, the best return we can get is if we see opportunities to continue to invest in the business.
You know I highlighted
Jesse Singh: that we acquired a small vinyl rail manufacturer. It was a relatively modest expense and then we put
Jesse Singh: a little bit more investment in there that those sorts of
Jesse Singh: call it tuck-ins or adjacent, whether it be in recycle or whether it be in core or near-adjacent products. Those where we can add value are just terrific.
uses of our capital.
Jesse Singh: We continue to invest 5-7% of our money against capital projects. All of those are really beneficial.
Jesse Singh: And then as you point out, we actually, by retiring debt, that gives us some opportunity to even be more efficient relative to cash generation with lower interest.
Jesse Singh: and fits our same investor day page. And so that's a pretty high bar. But once again, we've found great opportunities, you know, the one in May and, you know, we expect that we'll continue to find smaller opportunities.
Jesse Singh: And we'll see if there's something more significant that would fit it. So we're looking. And I'd just add that any time good recycling assets come on the market, you should expect us to be aggressive. The returns are great, and candidly, it's a way to extend the moat on our business.
and keep the verticality of our supply chain intact.
Jesse Singh: and from a repurchase perspective, similar to the last two years, if we are not able to deploy on M&A, because we're going to remain disciplined, we will be both programmatic as well as opportunistic on the share repurchases against that new program that we just approved last quarter for $600 million.
Okay. Appreciate the color, guys. Thanks, Phil.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from the line of Keith Hughes with Truist. Please go ahead.
Keith Hughes: Thank you. I think you had said, Jesse, in the prepared remarks that sell-through was double-digit in October. If that's correct, that's a that's a notable improvement what we saw in the summer. Are there any products that in October that are moving or is there something something about this that's unique and one time in the month?
You know, I wouldn't say it's one time.
Speaker Change: If you think about the previous answer to the question, you know, there's always seasonality.
Speaker Change: related you know maybe there's there was a pause over the summer that that accelerated and and so there's always some dynamics but in general
Speaker Change: If you look at the pattern that we had, you know, we saw nice sell-through growth in a lot of our products.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from the line of John Lovallo with UBS. Please go ahead. Good evening, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is, you know, I thought when we spoke last quarter there was a mention of 40 million of carry carryover from Dolman and Lowe's expected in the first half of the year. You know, did I remember that incorrectly? If not, I mean, what is the cadence of that look like in the first half? Yeah, I would say high level.
Speaker Change: You know, the way to think of it is coming into
this year.
Speaker Change: We have talked about carryover on an annualized basis of a number of different
things obviously whatever shelf games we had on the pro
Speaker Change: During the year that carries over Whatever shelf gains we've had in other areas that carries over and then additive to that is if we're able to to turn some of these distribution additions into shelf gains
Speaker Change: at a dealer and contractor level, that also carries over into the year. And then add to that, some of the things I just described are also interrelated to new products.
Speaker Change: And so we had new products that launched last year, we've got new products that launched this year. And as those products come to market, that gives us a bit of a tailwind because they need to be placed within the market. And then the last tailwind is really around our contractor and consumer wins.
Speaker Change: into our system in the last fiscal year, and we've had major step-ups in consumer engagements with samples and contractor leads.
Speaker Change: meaningful step ups there. So when you think about tailwinds coming into the year, you know, we're not going to specifically, you know, call out an aggregate number. But I think the wording may have been, you know, we're coming into this year with as high a confidence
Speaker Change: relative to the initiatives and the potential benefit in 25 as we've had in any other year.
Speaker Change: And, you know, as that manifests itself, there's typically a little bit of fill on some of the distribution expansion, and then the rest of it flows through as the demand patterns emerge throughout the year.
Speaker Change: And I just add, John, I mean, on the first quarter, if you looked at the difference between sort of sell through and sell to, that is not early buy. That's basically what you're asked about. It's the load in on those two opportunities.
Speaker Change: Okay, got it. And then just on that first quarter guide, it looks like it implies about an 18% year-over-year incremental margin, you know, versus what's normally closer to kind of mid-30s. Is there some investment spending going on there? What's kind of negatively impacting the incremental?
Speaker Change: I mean, candidly, our Trent Products business is down a little bit year over year. There's been a little bit of inflation in that business, and we've taken pricing here now to kind of get that back.
Okay, thank you guys.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.
Speaker Change: Hi, thanks for taking my question. I want to go back to the gross margin side and I think Phil kind of asked around it, but just can you help us quantify, you alluded to the
Speaker Change: from the Gross Margin Headwinds, that's the new products brand. What specifically...
Speaker Change: And then the bigger picture question is, you know, to the extent that some of these launches to expand your addressable market are expanding kind of your good part of the portfolio. So even if you're premium vinyl, premium steel relative to the market, it's still in.
Speaker Change: you know, a different part of the market than you've played in the past, how should we be thinking about the margin profile on things like steel railing or vinyl railing or the paintable trim?
Speaker Change: Yeah, so I think if you step back anytime you launch a new product platform
Speaker Change: With the exception of if you change a color and decking, but almost any other new product platform has a ramp, right?
You start making the product, you make it at lower...
production levels.
you scale that up.
Speaker Change: and even the running of trials for that product. So while you're tweaking the product, et cetera, you run higher scrap. All of that is an investment.
Speaker Change: that it's something that we're offsetting and we always offset as we expand our margin and then the long-term margin opportunity
Speaker Change: with the products we launch. We design our products in such a way, for the most part, that when we when we add a product to the portfolio
Speaker Change: either near launch or we see a path towards getting to an appropriate margin for us. So, and that's the vast majority of products we're going to play in that same domain. And if you look specifically at a
Speaker Change: You know the vinyl rail product for us. We have the ability to use recycled PVC we blend our own PVC internally and we also have a specific cap stock and And we're pretty good at extruding and manufacturing PVC
Speaker Change: So, even though we're coming into a different part of the market, not dissimilar from decking, we're bringing a lot of expertise and capability that will allow us to provide a terrific value for the consumer, but also put us in a really good position.
to continue to grow with good margins.
Thanks, Jesse.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from the line of Adam Bumgarden with Zellman & Associates.
Adam Bumgarden: Hey guys, thanks. Just to clarify on SG&A, Peter, do you expect similarly, I guess relative to history, elevated levels on SG&A in fiscal 25? And if that's the case, when do you think you'll really be able to kind of unlock the SG&A leverage more meaningfully going forward?
Speaker Change: Yeah, I think that next year we will still achieve some modest leverage in SG&A.
Speaker Change: Okay, got it. And then just curious on the near-term opportunity in railing. I know you mentioned the final product, you know, one of your large competitors has some pretty bold plans in that part of the market. Maybe how are you thinking about the railing opportunity outside of just the size, which that was helpful, but the railing opportunity for AZEX specifically and maybe how your strategy could be a little bit different or maybe it is similar.
yeah I
Speaker Change: You know, this is an area that is very core to us, and so we're deck rail and accessories. Six years ago, we bought an aluminum rail company that has
Speaker Change: scale to be one of the best aluminum solutions. We brought a we bought a premium PVC rail company with Intex
We we have differentiated technologies and PVC
Thank you.
Speaker Change: which puts us in a position to be able to be very competitive in many parts of the market. So for us, when we look at Roehl, it's just core. There was a few product offerings where we didn't, you know, as we mentioned, good, better, best. We weren't necessarily where we wanted to be on the good side. And so we have addressed that with these.
Speaker Change: most recent launches, and we just feel like we're in a really good position.
Speaker Change: to continue to do in rail, in exteriors, and in decking what we have been doing which is, you know, launching these new products, converting more of the market, securing more channel presence.
Speaker Change: and giving our customers the right alternative where we can provide them with a solution.
Speaker Change: And, you know, that's been very helpful as we've expanded and worked with our core distributors and new distributors. It's been very helpful as we engage our channel partners and our contractors.
Speaker Change: Okay, thanks. Best of luck. Yeah, and the only other thing I would say is in the last year, last couple years, we haven't called it out specifically. Rail has been a nice, really nice contributor to our growth.
Speaker Change: All right, our next question comes from the line of Keaton Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Keaton Mamtora: Good afternoon and thanks for taking my question. You know, you've talked about sort of your R&R assumption. I'm just curious, as you think about the exterior business, have you, from a planning purposes, how are you thinking about new resi growth? Because if we see sort of demand pick up there, it could help your exterior business. How are you thinking about that?
Speaker Change: It's a good question. I think in aggregate, you know, we're thinking of both sides of the business as, for lack of a better term, status quo.
Speaker Change: You know, we are, we're not baking in, you know, an assumption of acceleration in either market.
Speaker Change: Understood. Okay, that's perfect. I'll turn it over. Thank you. Great. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from the line of Kurt Enger with DA Davidson. Please go ahead.
Kurt Enger: Great, thank you. I just wanted to spend a minute on the competitive landscape and
You know, you've discussed some of the distribution chips.
Speaker Change: you guys have taken a not insignificant amount of retail business from some of your smaller peers here you know presumably that's will yield some competitive response I guess how are you thinking about the opportunity set out there going forward to continue to consolidate market share kind of on the offensive side and then while also being mindful of how others may react or respond and from kind of a defensive perspective
Yeah, so
Speaker Change: You know, the short answer is our focus is really on growth in the market and the best opportunity we see for growth in the market.
Speaker Change: is putting ourselves in a position where we can drive more conversion in the market. We had that rail discussion, just the earlier question, 65% of the rail market is wood, decking still 75%, trim has a meaningful percent.
Speaker Change: that's in wood or wood-like products. And so for us, as we're evaluating expansion in retail pro distribution, we're really looking to set ourselves up.
Speaker Change: in a way that can drive growth for ourselves and potentially growth in the marketplace. I think as you look at the landscape, you know, there's always a competitive movement. And I think for us,
Our goal is to be a net beneficiary.
Speaker Change: of movement in the channel, whether that be pro or retail. And we're in a really good position, we believe, to really continue to expand and benefit from.
transitions that are going to occur in the marketplace.
And maybe just following up on that material conversion dynamic.
Speaker Change: You know, it's maybe a little bit lost in all of the other discussion, but beyond kind of year-in, year-out marketing at the consumer level, what else do you think is important in continuing to expand kind of that dynamic?
Speaker Change: As you highlight, there is consumer engagement. There are a lot of decision makers involved in the process of choosing a material. It's really important that it's not just the consumer we engage, but all of the support infrastructure that a consumer, in particular a high-end consumer, would use. So there's an investment there. And I do think that it's important to have the right products and the right look.
Speaker Change: and the right characteristics. So, for example, you know, in the western part of the U.S., you know, wood is still predominant in many applications.
Speaker Change: But as people continue to either either on their own or mandated harden their homes against fire
Speaker Change: that puts us in a situation where we will continue to launch
Speaker Change: ignition resistant and class A flame spread products to help us solve a problem while we expand. So it's a bit of dealing with the ecosystem but it's also around having the right products and there's always more we can do visually to facilitate that consumer journey.
Speaker Change: Got it. Okay, I appreciate the color. Thank you. Thank you.
Alright, I will pass it back to Jesse
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