Q3 2024 Lululemon Athletica Inc Earnings Call

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Speaker Change: Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Lululemon Athletica, Inc. 3rd Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call.

Speaker Change: As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded.

Speaker Change: After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Analysts who wish to join the question queue may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad.

Speaker Change: Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star then zero.

Speaker Change: I would now like to turn the conference over to Howard Tubin, Vice President Investor Relations for Lululemon. Please go ahead.

Howard Tubin: Thank you and good afternoon. Welcome to Lululemon's third quarter earnings conference call. Joining me today to talk about our results are Calvin McDonald, CEO, and Meghan Frank, CFO.

Howard Tubin: Before we get started, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that our remarks today will include forward-looking statements reflecting management's current forecast of certain aspects of Lululemon's future. These statements are based on current information which we have assessed, but by which its nature is dynamic and subject to rapid and even abrupt changes.

Howard Tubin: Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business, including those we have disclosed in our most recent filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.

Howard Tubin: Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions as of today, and we expressly disclaim any obligation or undertaking to update or revise any of these statements as a result of new information or future events.

Howard Tubin: During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q and in today's earnings press release. In addition, the comparable sales metrics given on today's call are on a constant dollar basis.

Speaker Change: Before we begin the call I'd like to remind our investors to visit our investor site where you'll find a summary of our key financial and operating statistics for the third quarter as well as our quarterly infographic.

Speaker Change: Today's call is scheduled for one hour, so please limit yourself to one question at a time to give others the opportunity to have their questions addressed. And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Calvin.

Calvin McDonald: Thanks Howard. I'm happy to be here today to discuss our quarter 3 results which exceeded our expectations as well as our outlook for the holiday season and the fourth quarter overall. On today's call I'll start with some highlights from Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend.

Calvin McDonald: I'll then discuss our quarter three performance beginning with North America and the progress we are making in our U.S. business.

Calvin McDonald: Next, I'll share insights on our international business, where momentum remains very strong. Then I'll speak to product. Meghan will review our financials and guidance outlook. And we will close by taking your questions. So let's get started.

Calvin McDonald: We are pleased with our business over the extended Thanksgiving weekend and the traffic trends we saw across both our store and e-commerce channels. In fact, on Black Friday we had the most visits ever to our shop app and e-commerce site.

Calvin McDonald: Unlike others in the space, we do not run sale events across our entire store. We leverage the increased traffic over this period to clear through product we are not taking forward and to feature full-price style. We are happy with how the guests responded to both with full-price sales driven by some of our key franchises, including Defined.

Calvin McDonald: While we feel good about the start of the holiday season, we still have large volume weeks in front of us, and given the shorter holiday shopping season, we continue to be thoughtful in our planning for Quarter 4 overall.

Calvin McDonald: Now looking at Quarter 3, total revenue increased 9% or 8% in constant currency.

Calvin McDonald: By region, China mainland increased 39% or 36% in constant currency. The rest of the world grew 27% or 23% in constant currency, and the Americas increased 2%.

Calvin McDonald: By merchandise category, men's increased 9% and women's and accessories both increased 8%.

Calvin McDonald: Adjusted operating margin increased 70 basis points to 20.5% and adjusted earnings per share increased 13%.

Calvin McDonald: In addition, demonstrating our continued confidence in the business, our board recently authorized a $1 billion increase in our share repurchase program.

Calvin McDonald: In Quarter 3, we repurchased $409 million of stock, which brings us to $1.4 billion year-to-date. Including the additional authorization, we have $1.8 billion available to repurchase our shares.

Calvin McDonald: I'll now turn to the details about our quarter three beginning with our performance by region.

Calvin McDonald: In the Americas, revenue increased 2% on both a reported and constant currency basis.

Calvin McDonald: positive momentum continued in Canada where revenue increased 9%. In the U.S. revenue was flat which was consistent with our performance in quarter two and in line with our expectations.

Calvin McDonald: Last quarter, I laid out our plans to drive improvement in our U.S. business.

Calvin McDonald: These plans include implementing a new reporting structure within our product team, increasing the penetration of seasonal newness within our assortments by Q1 2025, and chasing into updated colors, prints, and patterns to provide guests with more options in the second half of this year.

So, let me share the progress we are seeing.

Calvin McDonald: When looking at our product team we are beginning to see the efficiencies and anticipated benefits of our new reporting structure with our global creative director reporting to me and our chief merchandising officer reporting to Nikki Neuberger in her expanded role as chief brand and product activation officer.

Calvin McDonald: Our merchandising and brand teams are now more fully integrated, which leads to better coordination and faster decision making regarding how we bring our innovation to life.

Calvin McDonald: When looking at the composition of our assortments, we are on track with our efforts to increase the penetration of seasonal newness and expect to be in line with historical levels in quarter one 2025. I feel good about the quality and quantity of newness the teams have planned and I believe we are well positioned for spring.

Calvin McDonald: Finally, our teams have been agile and have been chasing into seasonal colors, prints, and patterns. I'm sure you've seen several examples across our key franchises.

Calvin McDonald: These efforts have contributed to the sequential improvement in newness within our assortment in the back half of the year.

Calvin McDonald: We continue to see significant potential for growth in the U.S. Our guest retention remains high, and we see an opportunity to drive higher revenue per guest with more newness in the assortment.

Calvin McDonald: We continue to grow our membership program, and we are now 24 million members strong. Our variety of benefits including early access, partner perks, and members-only events are resonating well.

Calvin McDonald: and our unaided brand awareness remains low in the U.S. at 36% which provides a significant opportunity for growth as we continue to open and optimize stores and launch new brand campaigns and activations.

Calvin McDonald: In summary, I'm pleased with our progress so far as our teams are in action to return our level of newness back to historical levels in Q1 2025.

Calvin McDonald: In addition, we are benefiting from and seeing the efficiencies from the new leadership structure within our product team. With the rest of our regions performing well, I feel confident in our growth plans and strategies for 2025.

Calvin McDonald: Turning to our international business, momentum remains strong in all of our markets as we continue to see great acceptance of the Lululemon brand across the globe. Overall we saw international revenue increase 33% or 30% on a constant currency basis.

Here are some highlights.

Calvin McDonald: In China Mainland, our brand positioning of Made to Feel allows us to authentically connect with guests by offering technical products that help enable them to live an active and healthy lifestyle and bring to life compelling activations focused on movement and well-being.

This aligns well with the government's Healthy China 2030 initiative.

Calvin McDonald: In quarter three, our local team executed our largest activation yet centered around World Mental Health Day and the release of our fourth annual global well-being report.

Calvin McDonald: We hosted events in nine cities, anchored by our activation in Shanghai. For one week in early October, we hosted a variety of sessions for guests, including sweat sessions and experiences along the West Bund.

Calvin McDonald: In total, we had 15,000 guests participate in our activations across the mainland and we generated 3.8 billion impressions.

Speaker Change: Now let's focus on the rest of the world segment, which is comprised of APAC and EMEA regions.

Speaker Change: We remain in the early stages of growth in these markets and have significant opportunity to expand our footprint through new store openings and expansion of key locations.

Speaker Change: In our more established international markets, we are leveraging the success of our North America Optimization Program.

Speaker Change: For example, in Australia, we are seeing meaningful benefits from the strategy, including an enhanced and more premium shopping experience for our guests.

Speaker Change: an increase in our men's business through additional square footage and improved visual merchandising and an increase in online sales as these stores help attract both local guests and tourists into the brand.

Speaker Change: Our new store in the Emporium Mall in Melbourne is a terrific illustration of the effectiveness of this strategy.

Speaker Change: At 11,000 square feet, it is our largest store in APAC and is on track to be our number one store in the region in terms of revenue. We opened our first store in Australia more than 20 years ago, and this shows the growth that is possible even within our more established markets.

Speaker Change: In EMEA, we are also executing against our store optimization strategy as we recently increased the size of our stores in Berlin and Oslo, and we're happy with the performance of both.

Speaker Change: I'm thrilled with the response we are seeing from guests as we improve the shopping experience in markets where we currently operate. This is a key strategy for us across all regions, including North America.

Speaker Change: as it allows us to better position our store portfolio to support our product plans, continue to drive success in key growth categories including men's, accessories, outerwear and footwear, and drive overall sales while continuing to deliver best in class store productivity.

Speaker Change: In addition to maximizing existing markets, we have significant opportunity to bring Lululemon to new countries across the globe. Our plans for 2025 include opening in Italy as a new company-operated market, and in Denmark, Belgium, Turkey, and the Czech Republic under a franchise model.

Speaker Change: Let me shift now and spend a few minutes on product. In Quarter 3, in Women's, we saw strength in shorts, skirts, and leggings in seasonal colors, while in Men's, guests continued to respond well to our Pace Breaker and Zeroed-In franchises and performance.

and key lounge franchises.

Speaker Change: In accessories, bags continue to perform well driven by backpacks in the crossbody styles.

Speaker Change: We built upon our success this past spring in golf by focusing on another play category, tennis.

Speaker Change: when we dropped our Lululemon Tennis Club collection during the U.S. Open in New York this quarter.

Speaker Change: Based on the strong guest response, we continue to see an opportunity to grow our play activities and intend to evolve our strategy from a seasonal approach to one where we introduce newness into these collections consistently throughout the year.

Speaker Change: And, we have been pleased with the performance of two strategic partnerships we launched recently, Fanatics in the National Hockey League and Disney.

Speaker Change: As you are aware, we have a targeted strategic sales business where we sell products to select partners including fitness studios and university bookstores.

Speaker Change: Our Fanatics and NHL partnership builds upon the success of our campus strategy. We know there's an opportunity to bring a premium option to sports fans which allows them to celebrate their favorite teams through our most iconic styles.

Speaker Change: Our limited edition product collaboration with Disney combines iconic Disney imagery with our best-in-class technical apparel and taps into the appreciation guests have for both brands.

Speaker Change: as I step back and look at our entire product assortment.

Speaker Change: I'm excited with the newness we have planned. Our technical product is a key competitive advantage for us and our positioning as a premium athletic brand offering high style, high performance product truly differentiates us from others.

Speaker Change: Before I turn it over to Meghan to discuss our financials, let me say that we remain committed to delivering on our Power of 3 x 2 revenue target of $12.5 billion in 2026.

Meghan Frank: and we remain ahead of schedule. Using our revenue guidance for 2024, which we updated today, our three-year revenue growth CAGR from 2021 through 2024 is 19%, ahead of the 15% CAGR target in our plan.

Meghan Frank: The solid results this quarter show the inherent strength of our brand and highlight the continued opportunity for Lululemon around the world with existing and new guests.

Meghan, now over to you.

In Q3, both Revenue and EPS exceeded our expectations.

Meghan Frank: Top line strength was driven by continued momentum in our international regions in Canada, while EPS also benefited from stronger than expected growth margins.

Speaker Change: Looking at Q4, as Calvin mentioned, we're pleased with the results over Thanksgiving weekend and the start of the holiday season.

Speaker Change: I would also keep in mind that nearly two-thirds of the corridor remains in front of us, and the macroenvironment remains dynamic.

Speaker Change: As such, we continue to plan the business prudently, and I'll share our detailed Q4 guidance shortly.

Speaker Change: Let me also mention that we closed on the purchase of our Mexico franchise. The transaction closed on September 10th and had an immaterial impact on our Q3 financials.

Speaker Change: However, you will see an increase of 15 stores in our company-operated store count, related to Mexico. These stores were not included in our new store opening plans or square footage growth guidance for the year, hence their additive.

Let me now show the details of our Q3 performance.

Speaker Change: For Q3, total net revenue rose 9%, or 8% in constant currency to $2.4 billion. In constant dollar, comparable sales increased 3%.

Within our regions, the results were as follows.

Speaker Change: America's revenue increased 2% with a comparable sales decline of 2%. China mainland revenue increased 39% or 36% in constant currency with comparable sales increasing 24%.

Speaker Change: And in our rest of world segment, revenue grew by 27%, or 23% in constant currency with comparable sales increasing by 20%.

Speaker Change: In our store channel, total sales increased 13% and we entered the quarter with 749 stores globally.

Speaker Change: Square footage increased 16% versus last year, driven by the addition of 63 net new Lululemon stores since Q3 of 2023.

Speaker Change: During the quarter, we opened 13 net-new stores and completed 14 optimizations.

Speaker Change: In addition, as I mentioned, we added 15 stores in Mexico, which are included in the 63 net new stores and 68% square footage growth metrics.

Speaker Change: In our digital channel, revenue increased 4% and contributed $945 million of top line, or 39% of total revenue.

Speaker Change: And by category, men's revenue increased 9% versus last year, while women's in accessories both increased 8%.

Speaker Change: Gross profit for the third quarter was $1.4 billion, or 58.5% of net revenue, compared to adjusted gross margin of 58.1% in Q3 2023.

Speaker Change: The adjusted gross profit rate in Q3 increased 40 basis points ahead of our guidance and was driven primarily by the following.

Speaker Change: A 50 basis point increase in product margin driven by lower inventory provision expense versus last year and favorable IMU, offset by higher freight costs.

Markdowns are flat year over year.

Speaker Change: 20 basis points of net de-leverage on fixed costs and 10 basis points of favorable impact from foreign exchange.

Speaker Change: The upside was driven predominantly by prudent management of fixed expenses within gross margins, better IMU, lower DC operating costs, and the timing of expenses related to certain store real estate projects.

Speaker Change: Moving to SG&A. Our approach continues to be grounded in prudently managing our expenses while also continuing to strategically invest in our long-term growth opportunities.

Speaker Change: SG&A expenses were approximately $910 million, or 38% of net revenue, compared to 38.2% of net revenue for the same period last year.

Speaker Change: SG&A was slightly worse on our guidance of 40 to 50 basis points of leverage due to approximately 20 basis points of negative impact from foreign exchange.

Speaker Change: Operating income for the corridor was approximately $491 million, or 20.5% of net revenue, compared to adjusted operating margin of 19.8% in Q3 2023.

Speaker Change: Tax expense for the corridor was $153 million, or 30.2% of pre-tax earnings, compared to an adjusted effective tax rate of 28.1% a year ago.

Speaker Change: Net income for the corridor was $352 million, or $2.87 per diluted share, compared to adjusted EPS of $2.53 for the third corridor of 2023.

Speaker Change: Capital expenditures were approximately $178 million for the quarter, compared to approximately $163 million in the third quarter last year.

Speaker Change: Q3Fund relates primarily to investments that support business growth, including our multi-year distribution center project, store capital for new locations, relocations and renovations, and technology investments.

Speaker Change: Turning to our balance sheet highlights. We entered the quarter with $1.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Inventory increased 8%, lower than our guidance for an increase in the mid-teens.

Speaker Change: We repurchased 1.58 million shares in Q3 and an average price of $259.

Here to date, we've repurchased approximately $1.4 billion of stock.

Speaker Change: Share repurchases remain our preferred method to return cash to shareholders, and we currently have approximately $1.8 billion remaining on our repurchase program, including the recent $1 billion increase in authorization.

Speaker Change: Let me now share our detailed guidance outlook for the remainder of the year.

Speaker Change: As I mentioned, we are pleased with our performance at the start of the holiday season, but given fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas and an uncertain macro environment, we continue to plan the business prudently.

Speaker Change: Starting with full year 2024, we now expect revenue to be in the range of $10.452 to $10.487 million.

This range represents growth of 9% relative to 2023.

Speaker Change: Excluding the 53rd week that we have in the 4th quarter, we expect revenue to grow 7%.

Speaker Change: I'd also note that our revenue range now includes an incremental $20 million of negative impact related to recent fluctuations in foreign exchange rates.

Speaker Change: We expect to open approximately 40 net new company-operated stores in 2024, excluding Mexico, and complete approximately 40 co-located optimizations.

Speaker Change: Excluding Mexico, we expect square footage to grow in the low double digits, and including Mexico, we expect overall square footage growth in the low teens.

Speaker Change: Our new store openings in 2024 will include approximately 10 stores in the Americas, inclusive of two company-operated stores in Mexico and Q4, with the rest of our openings planned in our international markets, primarily in China Mainland.

Speaker Change: For the full year, we now expect gross margin to increase approximately 10 to 20 basis points versus our adjusted gross margin in 2023.

Speaker Change: We continue to expect markdowns to be relatively flat with last year.

Speaker Change: Turning to SG&A for the full year, we now expect it to be 20 to 30 basis points higher versus 2023.

Speaker Change: We are prudently managing our expenses while continuing to invest strategically into our Power 3x2 Roadmap, including investments in marketing and brand building aimed at increasing our awareness and acquiring new guests.

Speaker Change: investments to support our international growth and market expansion, and continued investment in technology, infrastructure, and data analytics capabilities.

Speaker Change: For the full year 2024, we continue to expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 30%.

Speaker Change: For the fiscal year 2024, we now expect diluted earnings per share in the range of $14.08 to $14.16 versus adjusted EPS of $12.77 in 2023.

Speaker Change: Our EPS guidance excludes the impact of any future share repurchases, but does include the impact of our repurchases year to date.

Speaker Change: When looking at inventory, we continue to expect dollar inventory to increase in the mid-teens in Q4.

Speaker Change: Continue to expect capital expenditures to be approximately $670 to $690 million for 2024.

Speaker Change: The spend relates to investments to support business growth, including a continuation for a multi-year distribution center project, store capital for new locations, relocations and renovations, and technology investments.

Shifting now to Q4.

Speaker Change: We expect revenue in the range of $3.475 to $3.51 billion, representing growth of 8-10% or 3-4% excluding the 53rd week.

Speaker Change: This range includes the incremental negative $20 million impact from foreign exchange I previously mentioned. We expect to open 18 net new company-operated stores in Q4, including two in Mexico.

Speaker Change: Expect gross margin in Q4 to decrease 20 to 30 basis points relative to Q4 2023.

Speaker Change: The decrease will be driven predominantly by deleverage on fixed costs and our ongoing investment in store growth and our multi-year distribution center project.

Speaker Change: We expect product margin to increase 60 to 70 basis points, inclusive of approximately 40 basis points of higher freight costs.

Speaker Change: We continue to expect markdowns to be slightly improved versus Q4 2023.

Speaker Change: In Q4, we expect our SG&A rate to deleverage by 90 to 100 basis points relative to Q4 2023.

Speaker Change: This will be driven predominantly by increased foundational investments in related depreciation and also strategic investments including those to build brand awareness to support future growth.

Speaker Change: When looking at operating margin for Q4, we expect to see leverage of approximately 110 to 130 basis points.

Speaker Change: Turning to EPS, we expect earnings per share in the fourth quarter to be in the range of $5.56 to $5.64 versus adjusted EPS of $5.29 a year ago.

Speaker Change: We expect our effective tax rate in Q4 to be approximately 29.5%.

Calvin McDonald: And with that, I will turn it back over to Calvin.

Calvin McDonald: Thanks Meghan. As you can see from our results, our business continues to deliver across our international markets and we are pleased with the start to the holiday season in North America.

Calvin McDonald: Looking ahead, we are excited about the work underway across our product organization to create the pipeline of new news that guests expect from us.

Calvin McDonald: both in the near and long term. And as we build our brand awareness and continue to strategically expand globally, the opportunities in front of us are significant.

Calvin McDonald: As we head into the final weeks of the year, I want to thank our teams around the world who made these results possible. I continue to be impressed by the agility and resilience of our teams who demonstrate why Lululemon is one of the enduring growth stories within retail.

Speaker Change: Thank you all for joining us. Meghan and I look forward to taking your questions now. Operator?

Thank you.

Speaker Change: We will now begin the question and answer session. Analysts who wish to ask a question may press star then 1 on their telephone keypad. You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys.

To withdraw your question, please press star then two.

Speaker Change: Our first question is from Alex Stratton with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Alex Stratton: Perfect. Congrats on a great quarter. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to focus on U.S. sales. Looks like they stabilized on a quarter-over-quarter basis. So I'm just curious, do you view this kind of as a bottom for that geography and should it improve from here? And maybe thoughts on the longer-term growth rate of that business. Thanks a lot.

Thanks, Alex

Speaker Change: In terms of quarter three, as you mentioned, performance was what we had expected and our plan on our newness was equally on our expectations.

Speaker Change: In Q4, our newness is getting sequentially stronger, and as mentioned, we're off to a good start. The holiday, and happy with our regular price performance over the Thanksgiving weekend.

Speaker Change: And when I look at our guests, I'm happy with the absolute growth number. Our retention with our guests remains very strong, and the opportunity remains, as I've spoken to in the past, revenue per guest related to newness.

and when I look at brand awareness.

and our opportunities of category expansion.

Thanks a lot. Good luck.

Speaker Change: The next question is from Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker Change: Thank you, good afternoon. Meghan, can you talk about the reasons for the mid-teens' inventory growth in the fourth quarter? How much of this is holding on to slower-moving core versus chasing seasonal color and pattern? And how are you planning inventory for the first half of 25?

Meghan Frank: Thanks, Lorraine. So we came in at plus 8% at the end of Q3. We actually guided the mid-teens for inventory, and our view on Q4 hasn't changed. We're expecting to end Q4 in the mid-teens growth rate.

Meghan Frank: You know, I would say over the longer term, we aim to manage inventory in line with our sales growth. We are chasing into seasonal newness, so definitely is impacting, I would say, our growth rate at the end of the year to set us up for our goal of inflecting the business and specifically U.S. as we move into the first half of next year. As you, if you look at our inventory turns, they're pretty much in line with history, a little bit slower than history, actually. So we feel well positioned as we move into Q4 and then into 25 as well.

Speaker Change: The next question is from Ike Buruchow with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker Change: Hey, good afternoon. Let me add my congrats. Calvin, maybe just to piggyback on Alex's question, just, you know, comps are still negative, which is obviously not ideal, but your tone and your confidence on the trajectory of what's going on in the region sounds better. It sounds like the confidence is building. So maybe, can you just maybe unpack some of the KPIs or whatever it is you look at that can kind of help us understand, you know, exactly why we should be confident that the negative comp trend will in fact inflect come next spring?

Thanks, Ike.

Speaker Change: The confidence is rooted in a few of the key data points that I have shared. I'll point to a guest who is still very engaged.

Speaker Change: with our brand remain very loyal and are reacting very well to the newness that the teams are delivering. And we know that that newness as a percentage of our overall assortment and mix is below our historical levels. So,

Speaker Change: When we see the newness, he and she is responding well to it.

Speaker Change: and seeing the work the team has been doing, the quality and quantity of that newness as a mix of our core assortment heading into Q1 of next year and through 2025.

Speaker Change: is where I get the confidence that we're back at those historical levels, that we have a guest that's still very much engaged in the brand and quite frankly is waiting for us to hit those historical levels.

Speaker Change: and we're seeing that through their spending pattern. Our overall guest growth has been strong. I'm pleased with it. We now have over 24 million members in our central membership program.

Speaker Change: of our younger, recently acquired guests. And then it's the core guests that the team's very much focused on who's responding, but waiting for us to bring that newness so she can continue to add to her Lululemon collection. That's what gives me the confidence. I truly believe it.

Speaker Change: decisions made with our product and we are addressing it with the new structure, the talent, the new talent and the team and and feel good with what I see heading into 25.

Thank you.

Speaker Change: The next question is from Janine Stricture with BTIG. Please go ahead.

Janine Stricture: Hi, thanks for taking my question, and congrats on the progress.

Janine Stricture: I want to ask a bit more on the women's business. It picked up nicely from Q2, maybe a little bit more about what's going on there. And I think you called out leggings, which is the first time we've heard that as a positive call in a while. So just we'd love some more color around what's going on in the legging business and what we can expect for Q4 into next year. Thank you.

Speaker Change: Thanks, Janine. Our women's business globally, and I'll start globally, is performing very well, as is our men's, as well as our accessories business. Really balanced growth globally, and we continue to see in all of our international markets growth across all the categories, including our bottoms and our leggings business.

Speaker Change: In North America, particularly in the U.S. because we saw very strong growth in Canada, the women's business, and when we look at newness, again, we saw good growth. It's the missed...

Speaker Change: historical levels of newness where we see that opportunity. When we look at the legging business, the bottom business, and how streets responded to newness through color, print, and pattern.

Speaker Change: She responds very well. And we did gain share in both men's and women's globally, as well as in the U.S. in the premium activewear category.

Speaker Change: So, we know that she is responding well to that newness, and that's what the team is focused on to continue to bring, but we are seeing growth across those categories. And I just want to, you know, remind that when we talk newness, it is colors on top of our core colors.

and core franchises.

Speaker Change: It's not unseen, unproven newness. We do bring that in as a percentage of our overall assortment, but a lot of what drives the newness and our guests' response to is the franchises, the silhouettes, and the hero items.

Speaker Change: that he and she loves, but bringing it through different colors and prints and trims and other ways in which we are adding newness to those that have always been a good driver of our business, and we've been at lower than historical levels, and that's what the team's focused on in driving.

Thanks so much and good luck for holiday.

Speaker Change: The next question is from Michael Benatti with Evercore. Please go ahead.

Speaker Change: Hey guys, thanks for taking our question. Congrats on a nice quarter.

Speaker Change: Just a quick one on the model. The, it looks like one of the key drivers of the gross margin in third quarter was lower inventory provisions. Would you just remind us how influential that could be in the fourth quarter? And then maybe just a little, stepping back a little bit on the gross margin, unpacking a little bit more, maybe what's under the surface on the product margin. I think you said one of the big pieces there.

Meghan was...

Speaker Change: I'm curious how sustainable that is with the high fixed cost base in North America and the negative comps in that market. Is that, you know, is that something that's as controllable in the fourth quarter or is there something unique to third quarter that let that be a bigger lever for you while the comps remain negative in your biggest market?

Speaker Change: In terms of inventory provisions, we provided for some inventory that sold through in the quarter and we've released some provisions. We're also lapping a higher comparison last year.

Speaker Change: We're not expecting to see big movement year-over-year in inventory provisions specifically when we move to Q4.

Speaker Change: If we look at what drove our Q3 margin, you know, 50 basis points was from product margin, it was from the lower provisions as you mentioned.

Speaker Change: We saw some benefit in hiring IMU, partially offset by higher upgrade and the markdowns were flat.

Speaker Change: We did have a little bit of de-leverage on fixed costs and then a little bit of a favorability on FX, so 20 basis points de-leverage on fixed costs, 10 basis points favorable on FX.

Speaker Change: When we look at Q4, we guide it to a decrease of 20 to 30 basis points.

Speaker Change: In that, we are expecting a benefit and product margin of about 50 to 60 basis points was marked down slightly under last year and then offset partially by some deleverage on fixed costs with store growth in DC specifically on a little bit of a lower revenue trend.

Thank you very much.

Thank you, Michael.

Speaker Change: The next question is from John Kernan with TD Collin. Please go ahead.

John Kernan: Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on a solid quarter.

John Kernan: You know, we were all over in China, or most of us were over there with you back in October. Can you talk to what you're seeing on the ground in China, both from a top line and margin perspective? I think in the first half of the year, the China bank contribution margin was in line with America. I was just wondering how you're planning it for the back half of the year.

Yeah, thanks, John.

Speaker Change: So, we've been really pleased and continue to be pleased with our China performance. So, our China mainland growth on a cost and currency basis is 37% in Q2, 36% in Q3.

Speaker Change: and we saw a positive impact from a bottom line perspective. We are seeing really healthy operating margin expansion with revenue exceeding our expectations to a degree. I think as I've mentioned before, it's not a region where we're looking right now to optimize operating margin. I'm really focused on driving our long-term trend, but certainly see opportunity there over the longer term. And I think we'll put a final point on how we see the regions playing out as we get into March.

Speaker Change: 2025. And then I would share we continue to be pleased with our China trends as we move into Q4. And we do expect that we're not offering, you know, specific guidance by region China to be above 30% growth rate again in the quarter.

Speaker Change: Got it. Maybe just a quick follow-up on the rest of the world. It sounds like you're more confident in store openings in some new markets. Maybe talk to some of the investments you're making there and the confidence you have in those markets.

Speaker Change: As I mentioned, plan for next year, which will be an own market in Italy.

Speaker Change: And then on the success of some of the markets with our franchise model, we'll be opening Denmark, Belgium.

Turkey, and Czech Republic through our franchise model and partnerships.

Speaker Change: and it really is the confidence we have in the brand momentum in every market we're in globally.

Speaker Change: and we continue to monitor markets and look for opportunities to expand.

Speaker Change: We look for readiness in terms of obviously spending power, but also interest within the activities that we play into. So that sort of sweat readiness in these markets.

Speaker Change: And we know we're early in the markets we're in, both in terms of awareness and market share, and we want to continue to fuel and drive those.

Speaker Change: is performing incredibly well in every market. We're getting pulled into markets versus pushing ourselves into.

Speaker Change: and it's still a low percentage of our overall mix of revenue and we're excited about continuing to drive it, grow it, and see it representing a much greater percentage the overall revenue of the company. And these market growths are just addition to that momentum that we see coming in 25 and beyond.

Awesome, thank you.

Bye.

Speaker Change: The next question is from Matthew Boss with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Matthew Boss: Great, thanks. So Calvin, could you elaborate maybe on the cadence of traffic in North America as the third quarter progressed and into holiday? And maybe just speak to new customer acquisition and also the start to holiday internationally.

Calvin McDonald: In terms of traffic trends throughout the quarter, we don't actually disclose monthly traffic, but I'd say overall, there Matt, we were pleased globally with traffic across both channels.

Calvin McDonald: And in terms of the U.S. specifically, e-com channel remains positive, and our stores were slightly lower than last year. But the U.S. did come in overall in line with our expectations for Q3. And as Calvin mentioned earlier, guest retention continues to be strong. The opportunity remains in revenue for guests as well as conversion. And we've been pleased with the holiday period.

Calvin McDonald: shared the membership number, and I'll remind you that 24 million membership base, that is just North America.

So we're really, you know, excited in terms of.

Calvin McDonald: that number and that initiative as a driver of guest engagement retention.

Calvin McDonald: who are doing a lot more work. See you next week.

Calvin McDonald: and how we continue to build a premium brand and allow our unique differentiated product. And that's resonating around the world. And we're pleased with the start to the holiday.

Speaker Change: Great, and then Meghan just what's your confidence in your modest annual operating margin expansion target multi-year or is there a way to think about areas of expense flexibility relative to different revenue scenarios?

Yeah, I mean I would say we're

Speaker Change: We're deep in planning for 25 too early to put a fine point on that. We still remain committed to our modest operating margin target over the five year time horizon. We'll obviously come back in March and share more and certainly revenue dependent. And the team's really focused and energized on driving inflection into 25. And, you know, I think

Speaker Change: We're pleased with our results this year, despite revenues being lower than we expected. We've done quite a bit of management of expenses and managed operating margins pretty much in line with last year, so pleased with where we're ending up.

Great, best of luck.

Thank you.

Speaker Change: The next question is from Paul Gillespie with City Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker Change: Hey, thanks, guys. I think you mentioned e-com in the U.S. was still positive. Stores, you said, were lower. Can you talk about that e-com versus store dynamic in your other key regions? And then second, can you also talk about the competitive landscape, what you saw in terms of promotions out there during the third quarter, and what you expect for 4Q? Thanks.

Speaker Change: Yeah, so in terms of traffic, that was specific to the U.S., my color, I would say overall traffic trends both positive in the rest of the world in terms of e-commerce stores.

Speaker Change: And in terms of the overall promotional intensity, I think it, we know it's a very promotional period, more intense than

throughout the year.

from a year-over-year perspective.

Speaker Change: I don't think the overall market is any more intense. There's pockets where certain brands and retailers are more promotional and where others are less. I think it obviously depends on the momentum.

Speaker Change: in their business coming in of how they've chosen to play that.

Speaker Change: I have a negative on the e-commerce store. Can you give me the frame which are outperforming in your major regions?

Speaker Change: We haven't broken down the specific regions in terms of traffic by e-commerce stores.

Thanks, goodbye. Thank you.

Thanks for watching!

Speaker Change: The next question is from Sharon Zaxia with William Blair. Please go ahead. Hi, good afternoon. You know, I guess I'm curious, given the election paradigm in the U.S., how you're thinking about any potential tariff impact as it relates to next year, and if you think you're better or worse positioned than your peers on that dynamic?

Thanks, Sharon.

Speaker Change: Levy down imports from all countries into the US that would obviously have a more significant impact on our costs We are closely monitoring and we'll look at opportunities across our P&L to manage through that as well

Speaker Change: The next question is from Brian Nigel with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Speaker Change: I, too, would like to add my congratulations on a nice quarter.

Speaker Change: The question I have, and I know it's going to be a little repetitive, so I apologize. We're talking a lot about newness, particularly as you look towards early 25.

Speaker Change: So, is there a way to quantify, I mean, as you think about what the product, particularly domestically, what the product's going to look like in early 25, I mean, how different is it going to be than what you've had historically, you know, so this may be quantified better than this new disc dynamic. And then along those same lines, you know, where you have introduced new products already.

Speaker Change: Could you quantify how much better the sales have been there versus, say, a baseline?

The End

Thanks, Brian.

Speaker Change: We don't share the absolute number but I have indicated in terms of the internal views that we that we look at so when when I reference newness

It's a percentage of our overall merchandising mix.

That could be a combination of

CORE WITH...

different colors, different patterns and prints.

Speaker Change: It could be new franchises, hero items that we've introduced, that we plan to carry forward. Good examples, Zeroed In, Soft Jersey, to name a few. Or it could be items that we just sprinkle in on the season to just sort of provide that unpredictable. And some of those could be test and learn for future seasons.

Speaker Change: The bulk of newness is still in that new, innovative, hero items or franchises, as well as color, pattern, print, extensions of core. So when we look at it from a... and that's why our markdown management is something we're able to continue to do because this is building upon the items that the consumer knows, but giving them, through silhouette and other ways, reasons to purchase.

Speaker Change: We have been below those historical numbers as a percentage of our mix.

through much of this year.

Speaker Change: it's sequentially getting stronger and come Q1 of next year, we'll be back at this historical level. So although I'm not sharing a number with you, if it's to say what would I see when I come into the store, I would say the mix of the assortment will feel more historically 23-22 in previous years because that's what the team's working to as a ratio.

Speaker Change: That's very helpful, Calvin. And then just the question, what you're seeing now, so I think you have mentioned that, you know, clearly, like you just said, the bigger shift in newness is going to happen early next year, but you've had some new product now. How is that product performing?

Speaker Change: Yeah, no, as I mentioned, you know, we are very pleased and seeing a good guest response to the newness that we put in. It is still below our historical levels.

Speaker Change: Some of the holiday items that we bring in, the detailing on our Define Jackets or the Velvet Scuba Collection, the Shine Align Collection building on the Align franchise, the Wundermost Tops.

Speaker Change: and the Satin Shine Running Tight and Short are examples where we bring that in and the guests is responding very well to that as well as in our performance with our waffle knit styles across long sleeve and jogger silhouettes.

Speaker Change: Tops in the Swiftly, Rulu, and Restless franchises and are fast and free.

Speaker Change: and in our footwear as well. So, there is lots of, and those are.

Speaker Change: Those are for our women's business, and then similar on our men's, we have the newness.

Speaker Change: and the guests are responding well to it. And as I mentioned on the Thanksgiving weekend, we saw and were very pleased with our regular business growth in a very heavily promoted period of time. So good response.

still below historical, still below where we'll be in Q1.

Speaker Change: But throughout this year, the guest has always responded to newness. It's been the level that we've had, which has been the opportunity, and we've been addressing and chasing in all the initiatives I shared with you in terms of structure, the talent changes.

Speaker Change: and the focus of the team. But that's where I get confident in what I'm seeing in Q1, as well as confident in the metrics as to what we control and what the team's focused on to drive the inflection in our women's business in the US.

I appreciate all the color. Thank you.

Operator, we'll take one more question.

Speaker Change: Finally, the last question is from Brooke Roach with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon and thank you for taking my question.

Speaker Change: Calvin, can you speak to your learnings on the increased investment in marketing spend this year? How should we be thinking about advertising and marketing going forward as a person of sales as you look to expand that brand awareness? And then perhaps as a related follow-up, wondering if you can talk to the results of the targeted strategies that you're implementing to re-engage lapsed customers in the US. Thank you.

Hey Brooke, I'll just take the marketing spend quickly.

Speaker Change: So, we have been managing marketing essentially in line with 4.5% to 5% of sales. We do expect we'll tick up a little bit closer to 5.5% this year given we have held our marketing campaigns intact.

Speaker Change: just as we've navigated the top line pressure because we're really focused on driving into the long term there. And then I'll have Calvin in.

has blue collar hair.

Speaker Change: Yeah, in terms of the overall initiatives that we deploy the incremental investments in, it really is across a lot of the levers that have driven and grown this brand. And that is in all markets, but it's including North America, in community events, at the local level with our ambassador relationships and pool there, and into more mid-top of funnel initiatives as we look to acquire and keep acquiring new guests.

Speaker Change: We use ROAS as a measurement against all and most of those spends and we're pleased and that's why we continue to lean in and on Toppled Funnel you know we're pleased with not just our new guest acquisition but as well as the movement we've seen in all markets with our unaided brand awareness.

which in the U.S. is now at 36.

Speaker Change: So we've continued to move that that needle in a meaningful way. So we're going to continue to sort of play and test and learn across those initiatives.

Speaker Change: leading with community, leading with relationship, and playing with initiatives at Top of Funnel to keep acquiring. Knowing that product is our ultimate hook, so always leading in these campaigns with a product message.

In terms of lapsed gaps

Speaker Change: The teams are always working on a variety of direct initiatives. What I would tell you, where I'm...

Speaker Change: excited about Q1 when we continue to bring newness and get back to those historical levels is our opportunity is not in an incremental or growth in our lapsed gaps.

We have very strong, high loyal guests, high retention.

Speaker Change: The opportunity is in our revenue per guest bed because we've had less newness to bring to her. So the team's ability to bring that newness to her and the way that she has continued to respond this year to the newness we have had.

Speaker Change: When we get back to having more of the historical, by having quite a bit of that newness in our performance activities across yoga, run, and train, and tennis, and play, I'm encouraged with the opportunity because we're not trying to bring a guest back into the brand.

Speaker Change: She's remained what we are doing is leveraging newness to have her continue to engage in spend the way she has knowing that we have more at the historical level so That is where I feel, you know excited about what the team's planning and will be able to do

Speaker Change: That's all the time we have for questions today. Thank you for joining the call and enjoy the rest of your day.

Thank you so much for watching.

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