Q4 2024 KeyCorp Earnings Call
Mr. Mauney was convicted earlier this month of psychological manslaughter and instructional hate justice.
Speaker Change: Good morning and welcome to QCOP's fourth quarter earnings conference call.
Speaker Change: At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. You can register a question by pressing star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad.
As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
Speaker Change: I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Mauney, Key Corp Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Brian Mauney: Thank you, Operator, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to thank you for joining KeyCorp's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I'm here with Chris Gorman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Clark Khayat, our Chief Financial Officer.
Brian Mauney: As usual, we will reference our earnings presentation slides, which can be found in the investor relations section of the key.com website. In the back of the presentation, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosures and certain financial measures, including non-GAAP measures.
Brian Mauney: This covers our earnings materials as well as remarks made on this morning's call. Actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements.
Brian Mauney: And those statements speak only as of today, January 21, 2025, and will not be updated. With that, I will turn it over to Chris. Thank you, Brian. And good morning, everyone. Our fourth quarter results mark another significant milestone for Key as we continue our journey to realize our full earnings potential.
Chris Gorman: We reported an EPS loss of $0.28 per share. However, after adjusting for the impact of our second strategic securities repositioning, which we completed in December, EPS was a positive $0.38.
Chris Gorman: In the fourth quarter, we took the opportunity to incur approximately $50 million of elevated expenses that we would not expect to recur.
Chris Gorman: Our revenue momentum is clearly defined and significant. Adjusting for the securities repositioning, revenue was up 11% sequentially and up 16% versus the prior year.
Both net interest income and adjusted fees grew double digits.
Chris Gorman: Regarding NII, while loan demand remained soft, we exceeded our fourth quarter exit rate commitment by driving another strong quarter of client deposit growth, up 1.5% sequentially and 4% year-over-year.
Chris Gorman: Concurrently, we continue to execute our disciplined and proactive deposit repricing plan. Deposit betas have been stronger than expected, 40% from the first rate cut. Additionally, I continue to be encouraged by our strong credit performance.
Credit migration improved for the fourth consecutive quarter.
Chris Gorman: Criticized loans were down another $500 million, and net charge-offs were down $40 million sequentially.
Chris Gorman: Non-performing assets are peaking, and assuming the macro environment remains constructive for the balance of the year, we expect non-performing loans to begin to decline by mid-year.
Chris Gorman: For the full year, I am proud that we met or exceeded the financial targets on an operating basis that we detailed for you at the beginning of 2024.
Chris Gorman: Net interest income was in the middle of our targeted range, and our exit rate was favorable. Fee growth was stronger than expected, more than offsetting the related expense levels.
Chris Gorman: We achieved meaningful positive operating leverage in the second half of the year. Full year net charge-offs were in line with guidance.
Chris Gorman: Throughout the year, we continued to lay the groundwork that positions key to continue to deliver outsized growth and operating leverage in 2025.
and Consumer.
Chris Gorman: We grew relationship households in excess of 3% for the second consecutive year, including growth of 5% to 8% throughout our Western markets.
Chris Gorman: In our eastern markets, we continue to grow households while continuing to penetrate the substantial wealth opportunity that exists in our scaled, mature markets.
Chris Gorman: As of year-end, our assets under management reached another record of approximately $61.4 billion.
Sales production in our Mass Affluent segment also was record-setting.
Chris Gorman: We enrolled an additional 5,000 clients and added over $500 million to the platform in the fourth quarter.
Chris Gorman: Further, in the last two years, our Mass Affluent segment has added nearly 40,000 households with over $2 billion of AUM and almost $4.5 billion of total client assets.
Chris Gorman: Concurrently, we have hired over 170 wealth professionals onto our platform, and we plan to hire another 60 or so in 2025.
Chris Gorman: Over the last decade, payments has been an area of focus and an area of consistent investment.
Chris Gorman: For example, we were one of the first banks to build embedded banking capabilities.
Chris Gorman: We will continue to develop our differentiated platform with plans to invest in additional software advisors and relationship bankers, enhanced digital and analytics tools, while concurrently continuing to invest in embedded banking.
Chris Gorman: More broadly, in the middle market, we recently expanded our presence in Chicago and Southern California.
Our new teams have hit the ground running.
Chris Gorman: New loan volumes improved for the third consecutive quarter, and our pipelines are nearly double those of a year ago. I am confident in our ability to drive commercial loan growth this year.
Chris Gorman: Finally, our investment banking results were outstanding for both the fourth quarter and for the full year. Fourth quarter fees were a robust $221 million, and full year fees were the second strongest in our history.
Chris Gorman: Growth this quarter was broad-based across loan syndications, M&A, DCM, and ECM.
Chris Gorman: In 2024, we raised over $125 billion of capital for our clients, with $54 billion raised in the fourth quarter alone.
Chris Gorman: Importantly, we are off to a strong start in 2025. Our pipelines, most notably M&A, remain at historically elevated levels.
Chris Gorman: We successfully recruited senior bankers last year and plan to hire another 10% in 2025.
Chris Gorman: Subject to the usual market caveats, I remain optimistic with respect to the trajectory of our investment banking business.
Chris Gorman: In addition to the investments I just described, I'm also proud of the progress we made on a number of technological fronts last year.
We completed two major core modernization projects.
Chris Gorman: our core commercial loan platform, and our derivatives platform. We also made significant progress on our migration to the cloud, including our contact center technology and our consumer online banking portal.
Chris Gorman: We expect to complete our cloud journey this year. At this point, all but two of our major systems and half of our apps have been successfully migrated to a hybrid cloud environment.
Chris Gorman: In 2025, we plan to increase our overall tech spend by about 10% to $900 million.
Chris Gorman: driven by Transform or Change the Bank Spend. Our ultimate objective is to make it easier for our clients to bank with key and easier for our teammates to better serve the needs of our clients.
Chris Gorman: Finally, I want to commend our team for the successful closing of the Scotiabank Minority Investment prior to year end. Relatedly, I also want to welcome two new board members.
Jackie Allard and Samesh Khanna.
Chris Gorman: Jackie and Samesh bring broad-based financial services, digital and technology backgrounds that I believe will be additive to our already strong Board of Directors. I'm also pleased to welcome Mo Ramani Nakey as our new Chief Risk Officer.
Chris Gorman: Mo brings a wealth of industry experience, most recently serving as Deputy Chief Risk Officer at a large Category 3 bank.
Chris Gorman: As we turn the page to 2025, we celebrate Key's 200th anniversary.
Chris Gorman: This remarkable achievement is only possible because of the hard work of our teammates, both current and former.
Chris Gorman: and their collective commitment to our clients, our communities, and our shareholders. I am grateful for their dedication to our company and proud to be part of their team.
We enter 2025 from a position of strength.
Chris Gorman: At year-end, our reported Common Equity Tier 1 ratio was 12%, and our marked CET 1 ratio was 9.8%, both in the top quartile of our peer group.
Chris Gorman: We have pronounced tailwinds across both our net interest income and our high priority fee-based businesses.
Chris Gorman: Our credit profile remains strong. While we plan to make targeted investments in additional capabilities this year, we will remain disciplined with respect to our overall expenses, which we expect to grow in the low-to-mid single-digit range.
Chris Gorman: As a result, we will drive both fee-based operating leverage as well as a 10% or better overall operating leverage in 2025.
Chris Gorman: In short, we are well positioned for a very strong year in 2025 and an exit rate that will further position Key for outsized growth again in 2026.
Speaker Change: With that, I will turn the call over to Clark to review the financial results and our 2025 Outlook in greater detail. Clark?
Clark Khayat: Thanks, Chris. Starting on slide 4, we reported a fourth quarter EPS loss of $0.28 or, on an adjusted basis, a positive $0.38 per share.
Clark Khayat: Late December we sold securities with a market value of roughly $3 billion with a weighted average yield of about 1.5% and an average duration of a little over 8 years.
Clark Khayat: We fully reinvested the proceeds prior to year-end in primarily three- to five-year duration MBS at a yield pickup of about 400 basis points.
Clark Khayat: These new securities will provide liquidity and capital benefits relative to what was previously owned.
Clark Khayat: Consistent with our expectations when we announced the transaction with Scotiabank back in August, we utilized roughly half their capital injection to complete two securities portfolio repositionings, one each in the third and fourth quarter.
Clark Khayat: We sold in total approximately $10 billion in market value securities for almost 30% of our AFS portfolio and over 50% of the long-dated securities that were yielding less than 2%.
Clark Khayat: Together, these actions added $54 million to 2024 net interest income, and will add about another $270 million in 2025 net interest income.
Clark Khayat: Revenue trends were impacted by the losses from the security sales just described. On an adjusted basis, revenue was up 11% sequentially and up 16% year over year with strength in both NII and fees.
Clark Khayat: Expenses of $1.2 billion were up on an operating basis, reflecting the strong fee quarter and some charges we took to enable us to hit the ground running in 2025. I'll go into these in more detail later.
Clark Khayat: On an adjusted basis, we achieve roughly 400 basis points of positive operating leverage year over year.
Clark Khayat: Credit costs of $39 million included $114 million of net charge-offs offset by a $75 million loan loss reserve release.
Clark Khayat: The release was primarily a function of lower loans, a decline in criticized loans, and $25 million specifically allocated to charge-offs we took in the quarter.
Clark Khayat: Our CET-1 ratio increased to 12% and tangible book value per share increased roughly 17% year-over-year.
Clark Khayat: Turning to slide 5, full year 2024 EPS was impacted by the securities portfolio repositioning.
Clark Khayat: adjusted for these actions and FDIC special assessment costs, EPS was about $1.16.
Clark Khayat: That interest income was down about three and a half percent or the middle of the target range we provided last January.
Clark Khayat: Gocia Bank investment-related benefits added about 150 basis points to growth, offset by an $8 billion decline in loan balances over the course of 2024 and near-term impact from rate cuts late in the year.
Clark Khayat: Our fourth quarter exit rate, NII, hit the $1 billion plus target that we had set at the beginning of the year, even after adjusting for Scotiabank impacts.
Clark Khayat: Adjusted fees were up 7% meaningfully better than the 5% plus guide we provided at the start of the year as investment banking had its second best year ever. Commercial mortgage servicing, wealth, and commercial payments also posted strong results.
Clark Khayat: Expenses were up almost 3% compared to our original guidance of flat to up 2%, primarily due to the strong fee environment and the additional expenses we noted.
Clark Khayat: Credit costs improved, reflecting allowance releases this year versus bills in 2023 and net charge-offs were 41 basis points at the high end of our original range of 30 to 40 basis points due in part to the lower loan denominator.
Moving to the balance sheet on slide 6.
Clark Khayat: Average loans declined 1.4% sequentially and ended the quarter just north of $104 billion.
Clark Khayat: The decline reflects tepid client demand, active capital markets, our disciplined approach as to what we're willing to put on the balance sheet, and the intentional runoff of low-yielding consumer loans as they pay down and mature.
Clark Khayat: As we've mentioned before, our business model provides clients with the best execution capabilities, whether it's on or off our balance sheet.
Chris Gorman: This quarter we raised $54 billion of capital for our clients, and as Chris mentioned, had a very strong quarter of investment banking fees.
Chris Gorman: Only 12% of the capital we raised in the quarter went to our balance sheet.
Chris Gorman: On slide seven, average deposits increased 1.3% sequentially to nearly $150 billion, reflecting growth across both consumer and commercial deposits.
Client deposits were up 4% year-over-year.
Chris Gorman: On a reported basis, non-interest bearing deposits remained at 19% of total deposits.
Chris Gorman: Similarly, when adjusted for the non-interest bearing deposits in our hybrid accounts, that percentage remains stable at approximately 23%.
For more information visit www.FEMA.gov
Chris Gorman: Deposit costs declined by 21 basis points, with interest-bearing costs decreasing by 25 basis points during the quarter. Deposit betas have been stronger than expected, reaching 40 percent through the fourth quarter and closer to 45 percent through the month of December.
Chris Gorman: Slide 8 provides drivers of net interest income and the NIM this quarter.
Chris Gorman: Taxable equivalent net interest income was up 10% and the net interest margin increased 24 basis points from the prior quarter.
Chris Gorman: While the increase was driven largely by the Scotiabank investment and related securities repositioning, we were able to mitigate near-term impact from Fed rate cuts and lower loans with continued client deposit growth momentum, higher deposit beta, and other funding optimization initiatives.
Chris Gorman: Overall interest bearing liabilities declined by 35 basis points this quarter.
Chris Gorman: Turning to slide 9, reported non-interest income was negative due to securities losses. Adjusting for this, non-interest income was up 18% year over year.
Chris Gorman: Investment banking and debt placement fees increased $85 million, up over 60% from the prior year.
Chris Gorman: Indications that M&A fees drove most of the increase, while DCM, ECM, and commercial mortgage activity all grew nicely as well.
Chris Gorman: Elsewhere, commercial mortgage servicing fees grew over 40% year-on-year and wealth management fees grew 8% reflecting strong business momentum in these areas.
Chris Gorman: As of 12-31, we serviced over $700 billion of loans in our commercial mortgage servicing business.
Chris Gorman: In our wealth business, assets under management grew to another record level of $61.4 billion.
Chris Gorman: On slide 10, fourth quarter non-interest expenses were $1.2 billion, up 12% both sequentially and year-over-year, adjusting for selected items in the year- ago quarter.
Chris Gorman: versus the year-ago quarter growth was driven by higher incentive and stock based compensation reflecting the strong capital markets activity a higher level of investment spend this year and some unusually elevated other expenses this quarter
Chris Gorman: Eventually, the increase was driven by higher compensation related to the strong fee environment, investment spend, market and employee benefits costs, and some seasonal and miscellaneous other expenses.
Speaker Change: At the bottom right of the page, we provide the primary drivers of the roughly $50 million of unusually elevated expenses in the quarter that Chris referenced earlier.
Speaker Change: We would not expect those elevated expenses in 2025 and therefore I would not use the fourth quarter non-interest expense run rate as a guide for the year.
Speaker Change: I'll cover this in more detail and guidance shortly, but as we've said, we will remain very disciplined on expense management efforts throughout 2025.
Speaker Change: As shown on slide 11, credit quality is stable to improving. Net charge-offs were $114 million, down 26% sequentially, or an annualized 43 basis points on average loans.
Speaker Change: Non-performing assets were up a modest 4% sequentially and remain low at 74 basis points of loans.
Speaker Change: We believe NPAs are peaking and expect them to decline by mid-2025, assuming no material adverse changes in the macro environment.
Speaker Change: Criticized loans declined by 7% in 4Q with fraud-based improvements across C&I and commercial real estate.
Speaker Change: Credit migration across the entire portfolio improved for a fourth consecutive quarter.
Speaker Change: and is back to the levels of two years ago. We expect criticized loans will continue to decline from here as tailwinds from recent rate cuts are not yet reflected in clients' financial status.
Speaker Change: Turning to slide 12, our CET1 ratio reached 12% as of December 31st, and our MARC-C1 ratio, which includes unrealized AFS and pension losses, improved to 9.8%, both of which we believe are at or near the top of our peer group.
Speaker Change: Our Tangible Common Equity Ratio also improved to north of 7%. Slide 13 provides our outlook for full year 2025 relative to 2024. Ranges are shown on an operating basis.
Speaker Change: We expect average loans to be down 2-5%, with year-end 2025 balances flat to where they ended 2024.
Speaker Change: Just a reminder that the down 2-5% is a measure of full year average loans, not a reduction from the end of 2020.
For more information visit www.FEMA.gov
Speaker Change: Embedded within this guide, we expect consumer loans to decline by approximately $3 billion over the course of 2025, offset by growth in commercial loans.
Speaker Change: That interest income is expected to be up roughly 20% and for a second straight year to be up north of 10% on a fourth quarter to fourth quarter exit rate basis.
We expect NIM to be 2.7% or better by Q4.
Speaker Change: We expect non-interest income to be up at least 5% with upside if capital markets conditions remain constructive.
Speaker Change: We expect expenses to be up 3-5% off this year's $4.5 billion depending on the fee environment, and we remain committed to achieving fee-based operating leverage this year, meaning on a percentage basis, fee income should grow faster than expenses.
Speaker Change: We expect the full-year net charge-off ratio to be in the 40 to 45 basis point range or stable to fourth quarter levels with MPAs and criticized loans improving over the course of the year.
Speaker Change: Finally, we expect the tax rate to be 21-22%, or 23-24% on a taxable equivalent basis, reflecting the expected higher level of earnings and some uptick in state tax rates.
Speaker Change: Finally, on slide 14, we lay out the drivers behind our 20% growth expectations for net interest income in 2025.
Speaker Change: and 10% plus growth expectations from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Our assumptions are conservative relative to this past Friday's forward curve in that we have assumed two rate cuts in 2025, one in May and one in December.
Speaker Change: You can see over half of the growth comes from the Scotiabank-related actions and amortization from swaps we terminated in late 2023, and another good chunk comes from ongoing fixed-rate assets and swaps repricing.
Speaker Change: Given the structural nature of much of this, we have a high degree of confidence it will materialize.
Speaker Change: The primary swing factors will be the degree to which we can drive quality commercial loan growth this year and continue to manage deposit betas as well as the shape of the yield curve.
Speaker Change: If our clients continue to view the capital markets as a better option to fund their growth and bank debt, we're fortunate to have strong debt placement capabilities a key and we would monetize these relationships through fees not net interest income this year as we did this past year.
Speaker Change: With that, I'll now turn the call back to the operator to provide instructions for the Q&A portion of our call.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session.
Speaker Change: As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question today, please do so now by pressing star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, or you feel like your question has already been answered, you can press star followed by 2 to withdraw yourself from the queue.
Speaker Change: Our first question today comes from John Pancari with Evercore ISI. John please go ahead.
Good morning.
Speaker Change: Good morning. Good morning, John. Just want to get a little more color on your...
Speaker Change: Good morning. Just want to get a little more color on the 20% NII outlook.
Speaker Change: You know, you maintained it despite completing the Bank of Nova Scotia's stake earlier, plus the steeper curve.
Speaker Change: And I appreciate the walk that you gave, but can you give a little bit more color around the rationale in keeping that 20%? I know you alluded to that your assumptions, at least around the Fed, could be conservative. Is there any other conservativeness built into this?
Speaker Change: and where could there be upside to this expectation as you look out? Thanks.
Speaker Change: Sure, thanks John. So let me just for the benefit of everybody maybe go through the walk one more time.
Speaker Change: Just so we're all on the same page, which would be slide 14. If you just go kind of bucket by bucket in the waterfall, you have a big chunk that's just the full year incremental pickup from the securities repositioning and Scotiabank investment.
Speaker Change: Similarly, on the cash flow swaps, we terminated back in October of 2023. You get the full year increment there as well.
Speaker Change: And then in the fixed asset repricing and swap bucket, you have the full year incremental impact of the U.S. Treasuries that matured last year. You have about $5 billion plus of cash flows.
Speaker Change: Swaps that will mature this year at about 1.8 percent. We've put some other Forward starters on that come in later this year throughout the year at about 3.8 percent
Speaker Change: And then you have the reinvestments on cash flows out of the investment portfolio, which you referenced, you know, will come in potentially at a higher rate.
Speaker Change: All of that we feel like, you know, it's not fully baked, but it's pretty...
Speaker Change: Well understood, with some plus or minus in there. The last two pieces really are the business activity component. So, as we mentioned, we'll continue to remix the loan portfolio into quality commercial loans away from consumer fixed-rate loans.
Speaker Change: We'll continue to grow quality customer deposits and manage those betas and deposit costs.
Speaker Change: And just as a reminder on that, fourth quarter deposit costs in total down 21 basis points, interest bearing deposits down 25, and interest bearing liabilities in total down 35. So we've continued to pull that lever where we can.
Speaker Change: And then the last piece there is just the full year impact of the size of the balance sheet.
Speaker Change: on average relative to 2024 and the associated rate impacts with that. So, as we noted, really the factors here are going to be...
Speaker Change: around loan growth and the business activity between loans, loan balances, deposit, and pricing on deposits.
Speaker Change: As I've said, we've worked really hard to get our balance sheet to a more resilient place here. We believe today we're fairly neutral in rates.
Speaker Change: and we can effectively manage through a variety of rate environments.
Speaker Change: Conversely, higher reinvestment rates and having closed that second tranche a bit earlier than we planned, meaning we get the second portfolio trade done in 2024 and coming into 2025 clean.
Speaker Change: The counter to that really is starting loan balances, so we're down about a billion and a half in average loans from Q3. We would have expected that to be close to flat.
Speaker Change: So that pulls through the full year. As I mentioned, though, I think we're in very good shape to manage through a range of rate scenarios, and we're looking to support client loan demand.
Speaker Change: If we can grow commercial loans as planned, we will be in good shape relative to that 20% and our NIMS should get close to that 2.8% level by year end.
Speaker Change: If we see stronger loan demand, and we can obviously support that, there could be some upside. But the reality is the industry has been waiting for that loan demand to manifest now for several quarters. And if it doesn't, we'll have other levers to pull to make sure we can hit the 20%.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Lastly, the environment right now is still a bit uncertain despite improving client optimism, which I'm sure Chris will touch on.
Speaker Change: and we've had a new administration take seat here in the last 24 hours. That administration appears to be getting to work very quickly, so I think we'll all need a little bit of time to understand the moves and let the market digest them. But I'd say the short story is we're very confident in this guide and we think we're well situated to take advantage of the market as it evolves.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Clark. I appreciate the color. I guess just related to that, if you can elaborate a little bit more on your loan growth assumptions, I believe you had indicated.
Speaker Change: implies about flat on an EOP basis, correct me if I'm wrong there.
Speaker Change: take a more conservative approach in guiding given the uncertain loan demand backdrop. I wanted to see if you can give a little bit more color what you're seeing in terms of
Speaker Change: you know, commercial borrowing activity and where the levers are there, thanks.
Speaker Change: Yeah, so I'll hit a couple probably numbers here and then I'll let Chris provide some kind of qualitative client feedback. So we did see commercial loans stabilize and actually even tick up a bit at the end of the fourth quarter. You're right on an end of period loan.
Speaker Change: kind of flattest through the year. Just remember underneath that, you know, $3 billion of consumer loan runoff and about a 2% to 4% increase in the commercial loan portfolio. So I think relative to others that's fairly consistent on the commercial loan side.
Thank you.
Chris Gorman: And again, Chris will touch on this, I'm sure the pipelines continue to be very robust and it's really just a question of pull through at this point.
Speaker Change: Sure. Thanks for the question, John. So, you know, it's interesting. We're out talking to our clients all the time. Most recently, we did a survey of about 700 of our middle market clients.
Speaker Change: And I think they're on the front edge of that right now. As you know, there's about an 18-month lag when you make investments like that, and I think people wanted to see what the tax policy was going to be.
Speaker Change: Our typical utilization would be $35,000,000-$36,000. Every percent of utilization is worth about $700,000,000 of outstandings for us.
Speaker Change: My personal view is that the economy is actually starting to accelerate a bit. My personal view is also that inflation isn't necessarily under complete control yet.
Speaker Change: It's also apparent that if we do have tariff policy, there will be people kind of buying ahead on that from an inventory perspective.
Speaker Change: I'll give you a couple other data points. Our M&A backlog right now is about as large as it's ever been, and there's still a whole bunch of capital on the sidelines. So for all those reasons, we think we will see long growth.
Speaker Change: You know, John, that here at Key, we've outgrown the H-8 data on commercial loans.
Speaker Change: every year with the notable exception of 23 where we were actually shrinking our RWAs, so the opportunity isn't there yet, but the fact that we have more clients than ever and we're having more discussion with more clients than ever I'm confident that when it's there to be had, we'll get it.
Thanks, Chris. Appreciate the detail.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from Ibrahim Poonwala with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
A good morning.
Ibrahim Poonwala: I just wanted to follow up, Chris, I think, regarding this.
look at both these businesses and understand them extremely well.
Speaker Change: Can M&A pick up without a pick up in lending demand, customers taking on more leverage?
Speaker Change: understanding that it may or may not come on bank balance sheets, go towards capital markets, but I'm just wondering if we get a pickup in M&A when we hear your statement around the pipelines being as strong as they've ever been, should that imply that if M&A picks up, loan demand has to pick up?
Speaker Change: It does, Abraham, to some degree. And obviously there's a lot of stock-for-stock deals, no question about that, but keep in mind what a huge force the private equity market is and how delayed
participating with a trillion dollars on the sideline,
But there will still be leverage and so there's it's
Speaker Change: There's no question that a robust M&A market is good for lending because usually there's large deals and out of those large deals spawn smaller deals and so it's very good for the lending ecosystem to have a robust M&A environment.
Speaker Change: got it and maybe one for you Clark sorry if I missed it if you gave a specific guidance in terms of
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Is there still some remix that we should think about and how should we think about just the average size of the balance sheet in terms of average earning assets relative to what you reported for fourth quarter?
Speaker Change: Sure, so we continue I think do a very good job with customers on the deposit side both balances and pricing We'd expect as we go through the year for that to be
Speaker Change: Stable to slightly up with continued client deposit growth. So we'll continue to remix out of brokered.
Chris Gorman: Engagement with clients, balances, and, again, overall pricing on those deposits.
Speaker Change: Got it. If you don't mind clarifying just average earning assets, how we should think about that, trending from year?
I'd expect it to be relatively flat throughout the year.
Thanks for taking my questions.
Yep.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from Bill Karkash with Wolf Research. Please go ahead Bill.
Bill Karkash: Thank you. Good morning Chris and Clark. Chris, you've talked in the past about an operating environment where you envision key balance sheeting, less risk, and focusing more on generating fee income in your role as sort of a credit facilitator for your clients.
Bill Karkash: Is that a fair characterization? And maybe if you could just update us on how you're thinking about the impact of a more pro-growth administration. Just trying to think high-level.
Bill Karkash: about how to think about the trajectory of your fee-income mix over time, given the investments that you're making in payments, wealth management, investment banking, and over time, do those investments sort of affect that sort of, I guess, remixing.
Speaker Change: Sure. Well, first of all, thanks for the question, Bill. You know, we're about 60% net interest income, 40% non-interest income, and I actually like that mix. What I want to make sure we do is grow both sides of that equation.
Speaker Change: There's no question, though, that depending on where we are in the cycle, you'll see us leaning in one direction or the other. Right now, with all these markets being sort of flashing green and wide open, we can do a better job of serving our good clients by actually raising capital elsewhere.
Speaker Change: When the markets get a little choppy is where I think you'll see us really serve our clients and our prospects by growing, you know, our balance sheet disproportionately.
to the larger...
Speaker Change: Part of your question, I think as I travel around and talk to our customers and our clients, I think people are feeling really good about a new administration. I think people think that the regulatory environment is going to improve.
Speaker Change: Specifically, as it relates to our business, the regulatory environment around
Speaker Change: M&A. As you know, it's been very challenging to get deals approved, and I'm not speaking of the banking sector, I'm speaking of our M&A business.
Speaker Change: And I think that will, I think there will be a pretty significant unlock there. So I think people are optimistic on the regulatory front that we'll be able to
Speaker Change: not only do more, but do more in a way that's faster.
Speaker Change: That's really helpful, Chris. Thank you. And if I may follow up, Clark, on your comments around being able to generate greater fee income growth.
Speaker Change: To the extent your clients continue to take advantage of tight credit spreads and fund themselves via capital markets, do you think...
Speaker Change: We'll need to see, I guess, to what extent do you think we'll need to see credit spreads widen, you know, before banks...
Speaker Change: broadly and more key more specifically see a notable uptick in loan growth you know given as you mentioned we've been waiting for for a long time sort of yet to manifest
Yeah, so look, one, maybe just one...
Speaker Change: Clarification there, which I know you know, but I think it's just worth stating.
Speaker Change: Our goal, when we serve clients, is to find the best landing spot for them, whether it's our balance sheet or the capital markets. When the capital markets get moving like they were in the fourth quarter, where we only put 12% of that capital we raised on the balance sheet, we'll put them into the capital markets and we're happy.
Speaker Change: to continue to serve them. I think importantly, and this is why you hear us talk about so much deposits and payments, we continue to get that business even if we're not getting the loan.
The other thing I would say is...
Speaker Change: In my time here at Key, which is going on kind of 12, 13 years, the one thing, as Chris noted earlier, that I've seen us do consistently with
Speaker Change: The noted exception we already raised is to grow quality commercial loans when they're available. So if the bank market is out there and it's the right thing for clients, I have confidence we will build the loan book. But if in the near term the capital markets are the most advantageous places for clients, that's what our business model is and that's what we'll continue to do.
do.
Speaker Change: And Bill, the only thing I would add, where banks, I believe, always will have an advantage, whether it's the private capital markets or the public...
debt markets.
Speaker Change: is banks are a lot more flexible. And when things get choppy, and when spreads start to blow out, and structures change, that's when I think clients and prospects really go to their banks. And I think that's when we, as an industry, have an opportunity to really serve our customers.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Chris and Clark, very helpful. Appreciate your taking my questions.
Yep.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from Manan Ghazalia with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, your line is now open.
Hi, good morning.
Hi, good morning.
Can you talk about your ability and...
Speaker Change: And can you talk about your ability and willingness to do more securities repositioning here? Given that CED-1, including AOCI, is close to 10%, you're going to be creating more capital from here. AOCI impacts are coming down. Loan growth is going to be flat. Why not do more on the securities repositioning front?
Speaker Change: Hi, it's Chris. So we're constantly looking at what's out there in the marketplace and what we can do around the edges and we've done a bunch of those things and we'll probably continue to look at those but in terms of major securities repositioning, you're not going to see us do something of the order of magnitude that we did either in the third quarter or the fourth quarter.
Speaker Change: Got it. Is there a CET-1 ratio including AOCI that you are targeting that you don't want to go below?
There's a lot.
Speaker Change: Not yet, and the reason I say that is, as you know, the capital rules are not finalized. Obviously, we have a lot of capital right now, and we'll be constantly looking at what we think the optimal level of capital is. But we'll come out with new targets after the capital rules are finalized.
Speaker Change: Got it. And maybe if I can just follow up on the securities question. I think you mentioned about 50% of long-dated securities are currently yielding.
Speaker Change: Well, you've already sold about 50% of long-dated securities yielding less than 2%. Is there a large chunk of that remaining 50% that matures in more than two years from here?
Yeah, I don't have the exact percentage.
Speaker Change: in front of me, but there is some component of that that
Speaker Change: That is going to still take some time to work through.
Got it. Thank you.
Ciao!
Speaker Change: The next question comes from Matthew O'Connor with Deutsche Bank. Matthew, please go ahead.
Matthew O'connor: Good morning. First, just a quick clarification. Clark, I think I heard you mention that NIM could reach...
Matthew O'connor: 2.8% in the fourth quarter if long growth tracks what you're expecting, but I think you had put 2.7 in the dex. Maybe I misheard, but just clarify that. Thanks.
Matthew O'connor: yeah clarification is I said I believe I said or intended to say we'll approach the 2.8 which is consistent with the 2.7 plus I think if we get more loan growth than planned we have the opportunity obviously to get closer
Matthew O'connor: Okay, that's helpful. And then just separately, kind of bigger picture, I know a lot of focus on the capital and the loan growth, but just conceptually,
Matthew O'connor: You know, he went from a bank that didn't have as much capital as you wanted, had to RWA, buy it, had to pull back.
Matthew O'connor: on lending, and that impacted some of your fee categories. How do you get the company kind of more front-footed, like, hey, we've got all this capital, we've got more than peers, let's kind of...
Matthew O'connor: you know, restart some of these relationships that maybe have been on pause. How do you just mobilize people internally? How do you communicate that to customers? You know, now that you're so strongly positioned in such a competitive environment. Thanks.
So, that process is well underway. As you know,
Matthew O'connor: Even when we were going through our shrinking of RWAs, we were investing heavily in the business, investing heavily in front-end people, focusing on what we called our asset-light businesses, which were deposits and payments, our wealth business, and our investment banking business.
Matthew O'connor: The RWAs that we were able to shed, some of them actually was just recategorization, so those didn't impact anyone, and the other RWAs
Matthew O'connor: that we were able to free up actually were non-relationship clients.
Matthew O'connor: We've been out there for some time sending the message to the troops.
Matthew O'connor: They're out there aggressively in the market. You know, we hired a team in Chicago. We hired a team in Southern California. They're off and running. So it's a great question, and it's one I've obviously been very focused on, because when you make changes like that,
Matthew O'connor: You've got to make sure that you communicate them, and we've spent a ton of time out in the field making sure our team is engaged and out there doing what we're capable of.
Speaker Change: and over the next four, six, eight quarters, how would you peg your growth to H-8, best guess?
Speaker Change: Sure, over the many years, and you know this, Matt, because you've been following us for all these years.
We've been on commercial loan growth.
Speaker Change: We've been an outperformer to the H-8, I think every single year with the notable exception of 2023, which was specifically a focus on shrinking the RWAs. We expect our team to outperform the H-8 from a commercial loan perspective, and that's what we talk to them about.
Okay, thank you very much.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: The next question comes from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo. Mike please go ahead. Aye.
Hi, I think I ask this every call, I mean...
Speaker Change: I get the sense you guys don't care if you serve your clients through capital markets or through lending. Whatever the client wants is what you'll do and so maybe if NAI does a little bit worse and capital markets do better, you're just completely fine with that. Is that a fair statement?
Speaker Change: Yeah, Mike, you're spot-on. I mean, we feel really fortunate that we have a platform that we can serve our clients wherever they can be best served, and we feel really strongly that that's what we do.
Speaker Change: What percent of your middle market client base has access to capital markets and how much do you think that impacts your your loan growth?
Speaker Change: I don't have that number off the top of my head, but I talked about these 700 middle market customers that we surveyed.
Speaker Change: I can tell you that they are all called on by our capital markets people because they're all in our industry verticals. The number of middle market companies that actually access the capital markets is probably a number that's closer, in any given year, is probably closer to 20 to 25 percent.
Speaker Change: Okay, and if you only had one rate cut instead of two, your guide for up 20% on NII would go to what roughly?
Speaker Change: It's not going to move a ton Mike because that second cut was in December so that's not going to carry a huge impact to the full year.
Speaker Change: and Clark just I correct me if I'm wrong I think on this call you said about 20% higher for 2025 for NII and I think your guide was 20% with the plus sign did I see that wrong and it just
Speaker Change: And I know there's a lot of attention on one line item, and this one line item might be a little bit weaker, and investment banking might be a lot stronger, but just to clarify that.
Yeah, so lots of confidence in 20%.
Speaker Change: above full year 24 but plus I think maybe Mike you might be confusing came in we think 10% plus
Speaker Change: 4th quarter to 4th quarter, so we'd expect 2025 Q4 NII to be in excess of 10% higher than 2024 4th quarter.
Great. And then separately, Chris, the board.
Chris Gorman: On December 30th, the Compensation Committee granted a Special Performance Award to the named executive officers to increase stock ownership, help retention, and help you drive value from Scotiabank. And I'm just wondering...
Chris Gorman: Right now with the board besides this considers you valuable. I mean
Chris Gorman: You're the third bank in a series of a few months along with Goldman Sachs Just last week or so and then Truist a few months ago Doing the what I call these a double bonus, maybe
Speaker Change: There's another name for that. I just wonder why, what does this competition, what does the board see in terms of competition and the need for key to retain the talent? What's happening there? Thanks.
Church.
Speaker Change: So first of all, just to state the obvious, obviously I have zero impact on any of my compensation.
Speaker Change: exclusively handled by our C&O committee made up of independent directors in consultation with the rest of the independent directors.
Speaker Change: So I would refer you to the AK, but what was mentioned in the AK, which I think is important, is this notion of retention, and you touched on it, and I think the board recognizes that we key have worked really hard to put ourselves in a position where we've got a great runway in front of us.
25, 26, we talked about it throughout this call.
Speaker Change: And I think the board wanted to make sure that the team was on the field, so to speak.
Speaker Change: Having said that, as you know, our proxy will come out in the not-too-distant future, and I'd be happy to have our team walk you through it when it comes out. Thanks for the question.
Speaker Change: The next question comes from Erica Najarian with UBS. Erica, please go ahead.
Erica Najarian: Thank you. First question is just a clarification question. What Clark deposit data are you assuming in that up 20% NII guide?
Speaker Change: Yeah, so, hey, Erica, nice to hear from you. We finished the year, fourth quarter, 40% beta, got closer to 45% at the end of the quarter, and we would expect to see
Speaker Change: mid 40s to high 40s throughout the year, so approaching a 50 beta as we go through the year.
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Got it.
Speaker Change: And the next question is for Chris, and I guess I'm just going to take a step back. I feel like, you know, now you have a 12% CET1.
Speaker Change: Maybe I feel like the questions are a little misdirected. I feel like a larger company won't give you capital just for you guys to...
Speaker Change: six, you know, balance sheet decisions that were made in the past by a previous management team.
Speaker Change: You know, the environment is what it is, and the consumer book is doing what it's doing. But I guess I'm just wondering, you know, is there an appetite for, you know, more aggressively adding talent, I think, in your prepared remarks?
Speaker Change: You talked about adding wealth managers, but given that you have all this capital, and given that there's so much in your balance sheet that's a natural cure to your net interest income.
Speaker Change: I'm wondering, you know, if there's an appetite, again, I'm not going to ask you the deal question, but if there's an appetite to be more aggressive at, you know, adding commercial bankers and, you know, using this capital for, you know, really like forward thinking on growth.
Speaker Change: Sure. Well, first of all, thank you for the question and, you know, I'm really proud of the fact that we invested all the way through sort of the turbulence of 22 and 23.
Speaker Change: But we are going to absolutely, Erica, continue to invest. I mentioned in my opening remarks we had hired many, many wealth advisors during that period of time. We're going to continue to grow that business. That's one of our businesses.
Speaker Change: I also mentioned we're going to grow our investment banking platform by 10%. We also have invested heavily in our technology platform. I mentioned the migration to the cloud. We've basically, every year, we've replaced two core systems.
Speaker Change: to the point now where we only have a couple. So yes, we will continue to invest in the business. We'll continue to hire groups of people. We'll also continue to look at what I call bolt-on acquisitions, you know, when you're
Speaker Change: basically set up by Industry Vertical. It gives you opportunities to really focus on adjacencies to those verticals and you'll see us work on that as well. Does that answer your question?
It does. Thank you so much.
Thank you, Erica.
Speaker Change: Our next question comes from Brian Voren with Truist. Brian, please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Oh hey, just a quick one, a couple of quick ones. When you're kind of talking about 2.7 maybe even 2.8 percent on NIM, can you just remind us where you see that in terms of a longer-term normalized range, is that
Speaker Change: you know, at the bottom of the range, or I think in the past you've talked about up to 3%, or I forget the exact wording, but as we think about 26 and 27, what would you deem as a kind of normalized NIM range?
Speaker Change: Yeah, good question. Look, I think as we get into 26 and beyond, there's no reason why we wouldn't be at three or maybe even better as the balance sheet continues to turn over a little bit.
three or better, even in 26.
I think we should get to something...
Speaker Change: We are better at sometime in 26. I'm not sure exactly when during that time, but obviously it depends on where the market goes shape of the yield curve and other macro
Speaker Change: factors but all other things equal I think as we progress through 25 and get into 26 we should see hitting 3% in them at some point in that time frame.
Speaker Change: Okay and then just since we can model out loan growth is the runoff of consumer over in 25 or should we think about some more in 26 and beyond?
Speaker Change: Yeah, I mean, look, the vast portion of that consumer book is...
Speaker Change: First lien mortgage. There's some student lending in there. It's all rate sensitive. So as rates come down, you can see that refinance. At that point, we'll continue to support clients in refinancing them.
Speaker Change: You know, you'd continue to see that, I think, come off structurally.
in the near term. Now, I do think...
Speaker Change: Over time, consumer lending is an important element to the balance sheet. We're not, at the moment, leaning into that, but I would expect that we will do so over time, whether it's other products like personal lending or...
Speaker Change: or things like that. But we're continuing to focus on relationship lending.
Speaker Change: particularly in that space, there's just not a lot of that happening at the moment.
Okay, thank you so much.
Sure.
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Speaker Change: The next question comes from Gerard Cassidy with RBC. Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Hi, good morning, everyone. This is Thomas Leddy standing in for Gerard. Key had a reserve release in 2024, and 2025 guidance for NCOs is 40 to 45 bips, so relatively flat from current levels. With this in mind, should we expect to see further releasing in 2025?
Hey Thomas, this is Clark.
Yeah, look, I think we expect...
Speaker Change: constructive macroeconomy to see improvement throughout the year. I don't think I'd expect to see massive reserve releases but I think as we go through the year you could certainly see plus or minus of things based on again how the portfolio shakes out but everything we're looking at now makes us feel like the book is stable to improving throughout 25.
Speaker Change: Okay, that's helpful. And then just quickly on C&I loans, it looked like period end loans ended this quarter a little bit higher than last. Can you give us some color on what you're seeing in the C&I book?
Speaker Change: Yeah, as I said, we did see a little bit of stabilization and a slight pickup through the end of the year. I mean, the tough part, Thomas, is we are seeing.
Great pipelines, we are having great conversations with clients.
Speaker Change: That has been true now for a couple quarters, so we just need to see that activity hit. And as Chris mentioned, you know, we continue to see things like utilization sort of sit.
Speaker Change: at relatively historic low levels, so everything we're hearing and seeing would tell us to expect it to grow, but until it really starts to happen consistently, it's hard to call.
Speaker Change: Understood. Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. And thank you for taking my questions.
Yep.
Moderator: Those are all the questions we have for today so I'll turn the call back to CEO Chris Gorman for closing remarks.
Chris Gorman: Well, thank you, Emily, and thank you all for participating in our conference call. If anyone has any follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to our IR team. Thank you so much. Have a good day, all.
Thank you very much.
Chris Gorman: Thank you everyone for joining us today. This concludes our call and you may now disconnect your lines.
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