Q4 2024 Dow Inc Earnings Call
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Speaker Change: Greetings and welcome to the Dow 4th Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation.
Speaker Change: If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn it over to Dow Investor Relations Vice President Andrew Riker. Mr. Riker, you may begin.
Speaker Change: Good morning. Thank you for joining today. The accompanying slides are provided through this webcast and posted on our website. I'm Andrew Riker, Dow's Investor Relations Vice President. Leading today's call are Jim Fitterling, Chair and Chief Executive Officer.
Speaker Change: Jeff Tate, Chief Financial Officer, and Dow's recently appointed Chief Operating Officer Karen S. Carter. Please note our comments contain forward-looking statements and are subject to the related cautionary statement contained in the earnings news release and slides.
Speaker Change: Please refer to our public filings for further information about principal risk and uncertainty.
Speaker Change: Unless otherwise specified, all financials, where applicable, exclude significant items. We will also refer to non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in the earnings news release that is posted on our website.
Speaker Change: On slide two is our agenda for today's call. Jim will review our fourth quarter and full year results, Erin will provide an overview of our operating segment performance, and Jeff will share an update on the macroeconomic environment and our modeling guidance for the first quarter.
Speaker Change: Jim will then provide details on the intentional actions Dallas is taking to navigate the prolonged economic downturn and close out the call. Following that, we will take your questions. Now let me turn the call over to Jim.
Jim Fitterling: Thank you, Andrew. Beginning on slide 3. There's a lot to unpack in our results this quarter, so let me first walk through the headlines.
Jim Fitterling: In the fourth quarter, Team Dow delivered our fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year volume growth despite continued weak macroeconomic conditions.
Jim Fitterling: Net sales were $10.4 billion, which is down 2% versus the year-ago period and reflects pricing pressure seen across the industry in the quarter.
Jim Fitterling: Local price was down 3% year-over-year and sequentially with declines across all our operating segments.
Jim Fitterling: Operating EBITDA was $1.2 billion, which is approximately flat compared to the same period last year.
Jim Fitterling: Cash flow from continuing operations was $811 million, resulting in free cash flow of $44 million.
Jim Fitterling: Returns to shareholders totaled $492 million of dividends in the quarter, and our total CapEx spend was $767 million.
Jim Fitterling: As you saw in our numbers this quarter, we also had a non-cash tax adjustment impacting net income and EPS. Jeff will provide more details on that later in this call.
Jim Fitterling: Throughout the quarter, we announced additional actions that continue to support the optimization of our global portfolio for growth while maintaining a best-owner mindset.
Jim Fitterling: For example, we continue to ramp up operating rates at our Texas Ape, Cracker, and Glycol II units.
Jim Fitterling: We completed the sale of our flexible packaging laminating adhesives business to Arkema for an enterprise value of approximately $150 million.
Jim Fitterling: And we just signed a definitive agreement with Macquarie Asset Management for the sale of a minority stake in select U.S. Gulf Coast infrastructure assets, for which we expect to receive cash proceeds of up to $3 billion.
and driven by persistently weak global macroeconomic conditions.
Jim Fitterling: We announced a strategic review of select European assets, primarily in our polyurethanes business, where demand has been structurally challenged over the past five years, making it the highest cost region for several of our key businesses.
Jim Fitterling: We are also postponing a maintenance turnaround at one of our ethylene crackers in Europe. This decision will result in us idling this asset starting in second quarter until market dynamics improve.
Jim Fitterling: And today, we announced targeted actions to reduce our costs by $1 billion and our CapEx by $300 to $500 million.
Jim Fitterling: Collectively, the additional actions are focused on reinforcing our long-term competitiveness as we continue to navigate this prolonged economic downturn.
Jim Fitterling: Turning to slide four, in 2024, Team Dow continued to advance both our near-term priorities and our long-term strategy to become a stronger, more innovative company.
Jim Fitterling: We deliver net sales of $43 billion, operating EBIT of $2.6 billion, and year-over-year volume growth of 3%, excluding merchant hydrocarbon sales.
Jim Fitterling: Earlier in 2024, we began construction at our Path to Zero investment in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta.
Jim Fitterling: When complete, the project is expected to generate approximately $1 billion in incremental EBITDA annually by 2030.
Dow is also recognized externally through industry-leading awards and certifications.
Jim Fitterling: Last year we earned 12 Edison Awards for Innovation and Great Place to Work and Fortune, named out as one of the top 25 world's best workplaces.
Jim Fitterling: Team Dow navigated several challenges over the past year, including weather-related and supply chain disruptions.
Jim Fitterling: and continued uncertainty in many regions and markets that we serve.
Jim Fitterling: And in response to evolving market dynamics and sluggish demand recovery in Europe, we demonstrated our best-owner mindset with more than 20 proactive actions to address higher-cost assets.
Jim Fitterling: I remain confident in our company's ability to foster a sustainable future, achieve long-term profitable growth, and enhance shareholder returns.
Speaker Change: Now I'm pleased to turn it over to Karen S. Carter, DOW's Chief Operating Officer, who will provide an overview of our operating segment performance on slide 5.
Speaker Change: Thank you, Jim. I'm pleased to join you all today, and before I begin, I'd like to mention what an honor it is to be named Dow's Chief Operating Officer. I look forward to engaging with many of you, our owners, in the near future.
Speaker Change: In my more than 30 years at Dow, I have progressed through the organization to most recently leading P&SP, the company's largest operating segment.
Speaker Change: And I have worked across a broad range of businesses and functions, including global leadership positions within the building and construction and consumer electronics and markets, as well as Dow's polyethylene franchise.
Speaker Change: This has given me a deep appreciation for our company's competitive advantages, the strength of our innovation engine, and our commitment to delivering profitable growth.
Speaker Change: As COO, my priorities are to further strengthen our customer engagement, accelerate the commercialization of Dow's innovation pipeline, and enhance reliability and productivity.
Speaker Change: I am committed to driving business and operational results while progressing our strategic priorities to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.
Now let's move to our operating segment results.
Speaker Change: In the packaging and specialty plastic segment, we entered the fourth quarter with a challenging backdrop of ample industry supply, high feedstock costs, and a typical seasonal slowdown in demand.
Speaker Change: segment results reflected a decrease in local price both year-over-year and sequentially
Speaker Change: This was primarily driven by lower functional polymers and polyethylene prices as a result of the October price decline reflected in the market indices and other competitive price pressures throughout the quarter.
Speaker Change: Despite higher demand for flexible food and specialty packaging in all regions except Latin America, volume for this segment was down 1% year-over-year.
Speaker Change: This was primarily driven by lower third-party hydrocarbon sales and non-recurring licensing revenue.
Speaker Change: Operating EBIT was $447 million, a decrease of $217 million compared to the year-ago period.
Speaker Change: This was primarily driven by lower integrated margins and licensing revenue.
Riker, Jeffrey Tate, Pankaj Gupta, James Fitterling
Speaker Change: Moving to the industrial intermediates and infrastructure segment, we benefited from strong global energy demand as well as stable consumer and pharma demand.
Speaker Change: We also experienced typical seasonal improvements for deicing, while agricultural and coatings applications saw normal seasonal declines.
Speaker Change: Looking at fourth quarter results, local price declined 1% year-over-year, while volume was up 1% year-over-year.
Speaker Change: This was driven by improved supply availability in our industrial solutions business as we finished ramping up our Glycol II unit ahead of schedule.
Speaker Change: Those games were partly offset by continued softness in the polyurethanes and construction chemicals business.
Speaker Change: Operating EBIT for this segment increased $69 million versus the year-ago period.
Speaker Change: Results were primarily driven by higher operating rates and improved supply availability in the industrial solutions business.
Speaker Change: And in the performance materials and coating segment, volume was up 5%, with strong gains across both architectural coatings and downstream silicones.
Speaker Change: We achieved this despite global weakness in building and construction and markets, as high interest rates continue to pressure spending and residential markets.
Speaker Change: Operating EBIT increased $52 million compared to the year-ago period driven by volume gains and lower fixed costs.
Speaker Change: Now, I'll turn the call over to Jess, who will provide an overview of the macros and our outlook.
Jess: Thank you, Karen, and good morning to everyone joining our call today. Moving to slide six, while global GDP is expected to grow at similar levels to 2024, recent economic activity is primarily being led by the strength and service-related sectors.
Jess: In contrast, global manufacturing TMI is at contractionary levels with output and new orders declining in December.
Jess: Ongoing affordability challenges also continue to pressure spending in housing and durable goods sectors.
Jess: These dynamics have created a two-speed economy, and we continue to monitor key indicators for signs of positive inflection in more challenged-in markets.
Jess: Notably, this includes the pace of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and Europe, and recent stimulus actions in China, for any impact on inflation, as well as in market demand.
Jess: In addition, we are watching for any impacts from ongoing geopolitical volatility, including potential terrorists.
Jess: Now looking across our four market verticals and packaging, we continue to see demand growth, especially in North America, with resilient domestic and export polyethylene demand throughout the year.
Jess: In China, manufacturing activity remains tepid, and overall demand in Europe continues to be soft.
Infrastructure demand remains weak globally, particularly in residential construction.
Jess: In the U.S., mortgage rates are now back up above 7%, representing the highest level since May, despite lower Fed interest rates.
Jess: This is driving ongoing affordability issues with U.S. building permits remaining below their three-year average.
Jess: China new home prices also declined year-over-year for the 18th consecutive month.
Jess: Consumer spending continues to be constrained by persistent inflation in the U.S. and Europe, with consumer confidence levels declining in December.
Jess: In China, overall retail sales were up in December, although year-over-year growth in furniture sales decelerated from the prior month.
Jess: And in mobility, higher auto sales in the U.S. and China were driven by discounts to clear elevated inventory and government stimulus actions, respectively.
Jess: We also saw new car registrations in the EU decline 13% in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half of the year.
Now turning to our Outlook on slide 7.
We expect first quarter earnings to be approximately $1 billion.
down $200 million quarter-over-quarter.
Jess: This is largely due to higher anticipated feedstock costs, which have increased due to the severe cold snap.
Jess: We expect this to pressure margins as we start the quarter.
Jess: We will also have higher plant maintenance activity in the first quarter across our three operating segments.
Jess: but expect full-year plant maintenance activity to be roughly in line with the prior year.
Jess: In addition, we anticipate our operational tax rate to be in the range of 25-29%, in line with our historical rate.
Jess: This reflects an improvement versus the fourth quarter, which was elevated largely due to higher-than-expected non-cash tax adjustments.
Jess: These tax items were primarily related to Argentina, which was amplified by inflation.
Jess: Audit re-measurements and currency will also drive us for the fourth quarter tax rate.
Jess: Next, I'll turn to our Outlook and First Quarter Guidance by segment.
Jess: In packaging and specialty plastics, we expect higher feedstocks and energy costs to outpace price increases from a timing perspective in the quarter.
Jess: As a result, global integrated margins are expected to be lowered sequentially.
Jess: In addition, we anticipate headwinds of approximately $50 million from higher plant maintenance activity primarily along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
and many more. Thank you. Thank you.
Jess: In the Industrial, Intermediates, and Infrastructure segment, we anticipate lower margins in our polyurethane business from our energy costs, as well as lower catalyst sales in our industrial solutions business.
Jess: In the quarter, we have planned maintenance activities scheduled at our ethylene oxide asset in Cedar Rift, Texas, which will enable the startup of additional alkoxylation capacity in the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Jess: This new capacity is one of the near-term growth investments we outlined at our last Investor Day and should support higher sales beginning in the second quarter.
Jess: And in the performance materials and coding segment, building and construction in markets remain soft, with high mortgage rates in the U.S. and sector weakness in China continuing to weigh on demand.
Jess: However, we expect a seasonal demand uptick in first quarter to provide a tailwind of approximately $75 million.
Jess: In addition, our regular yearly maintenance at our monomers assets in the U.S. Gulf Coast is expected to be a sequential headwind of approximately $25 million.
Jess: On a final note, last week the U.S. Gulf Coast was impacted by a powerful winter storm. Our manufacturing sites have managed well, but we continue to monitor any further developments both at our sites as well as across the industry.
Jess: The current guidance does not include any impact favorable or unfavorable stemming from the storm.
Now, I'll turn the call back over to Jim.
Jim Fitterling: Thank you, Jeff. On slide eight, in the midst of the prolonged downturn and slower than expected economic recovery that our industry is experiencing,
Jim Fitterling: Dow is taking several key actions to further reduce our costs and reinforce our long-term competitiveness through the economic cycle.
Jim Fitterling: First and foremost, we're taking additional targeted actions aimed at improving our margins.
Jim Fitterling: We announce today that we will implement cost reductions of $1 billion on an annual run rate basis by 2026.
Jim Fitterling: These actions will be primarily focused on third-party contract labor and purchase services.
Jim Fitterling: In addition, we are targeting the elimination of approximately 1,500 Dow rolls.
Jim Fitterling: Last quarter, we announced that we would kick off a strategic evaluation of our European asset footprint, and we're on track to provide an update on this work by mid-2025.
Jim Fitterling: Lastly, as we complete our in-flight higher return growth project this year, we're also taking actions to preserve our strong financial foundation.
Jim Fitterling: We intend to recalibrate our CAPEX deployment to match the current demand and macroeconomic conditions.
Jim Fitterling: and we'll do so by reducing our 2025 spending by $300 to $500 million compared to our previously disclosed target of $3.5 billion.
We will keep CapEx spending roughly at these levels.
Jim Fitterling: until we see a clear recovery materialize across broad portions of the end markets that we serve.
Jim Fitterling: Turning to slide 9, we continue our ongoing practice of reviewing our global portfolio.
Jim Fitterling: Last month, Dow entered into a definitive agreement to sell 40% equity stake in Select Infrastructure Assets to Macquarie Asset Management, a leading global infrastructure investor.
We anticipate the transaction will close by mid-2025.
This newly formed infrastructure-focused company, named Diamond Infrastructure Solutions,
Jim Fitterling: is comprised of assets that support a wide range of services at five of Dow's manufacturing sites along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Jim Fitterling: The new company will operate within BOW and has a dedicated management team with priorities in support of Diamond Infrastructure Solutions Strategy.
Jim Fitterling: This transaction is expected to generate approximately $2.4 billion of initial cash proceeds for Dow.
Jim Fitterling: Macquarie Asset Management has the option to increase their minority equity stake to 49% within six months of closing, which would increase cash proceeds to approximately $3 billion for Dow if exercised.
Jim Fitterling: The long-term partnership leverages Dow's operational excellence and Macquarie Asset Management's world-leading infrastructure positions to generate incremental operational efficiencies as well as future growth opportunities with existing and new customers.
Jim Fitterling: With enhanced financial flexibility from this partnership, Dow is in a strong position to continue to invest in growth and deliver enhanced returns to our shareholders, particularly as market conditions improve.
Jim Fitterling: Closing on slide 10. As we navigate a challenging near-term environment, we are committed to a disciplined and balanced approach to delivering our cash and capital allocation priorities.
Jim Fitterling: Our ability to proactively manage in an extended economic downturn will position Dow well for long-term success.
Jim Fitterling: As I mentioned earlier, last week we postponed a maintenance turnaround at one of our ethylene crackers in Europe.
Jim Fitterling: This decision will result in us idling this asset starting in second quarter until market dynamics improve.
Jim Fitterling: This reduction in planned turnaround spending will keep 2025 turnaround spending levels in line with the prior year.
Jim Fitterling: We will continue to match supply with profitable demand until margins improve.
Jim Fitterling: We continue to take proactive, strategic actions to optimize our global footprint, drive operational performance, and reduce our costs and capital expenditures.
Jim Fitterling: In 2025, our additional cost actions and reduced CapEx spending will help us to enhance near-term cash flow, margins, and earnings growth, while remaining committed to our long-term strategic priorities.
Jim Fitterling: In addition, our signed agreement with Macquarie Asset Management further strengthens Dow's financial flexibility and the potential to generate up to $3 billion in cash proceeds in 2025.
Jim Fitterling: This transaction is consistent with Dow's best owner mindset and track record of delivering unique-to-Dow cash flow levers to mitigate cyclical volatility.
Jim Fitterling: We are optimistic that we will continue to see demand growth in attractive end markets such as packaging, energy, and electronics.
Jim Fitterling: With a differentiated portfolio and proactive actions to support our solid financial foundation, we are confident in our ability to deliver on all of our capital allocation priorities, including our industry-leading dividend.
Jim Fitterling: At the same time, we will continue to maintain our focus on operating and financial discipline to drive long-term shareholder value to ensure that we remain well positioned for the cycle recovery. With that, I'll turn it back to Andrew to get us started with the Q&A.
Andrew Riker: Thank you, Jim. Now let's move on to your questions. I would like to remind you that our forward-looking statements apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Operator, please provide the Q&A instructions.
Andrew Riker: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin our question and answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad.
Andrew Riker: If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star 1 again. We kindly ask everyone to limit themselves to one question. We will pause for a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Thank you.
Andrew Riker: Before we get to the first question, I wanted to make a few brief comments about the tragic incident that occurred near Washington, D.C. last night.
Andrew Riker: We're saddened by the news of yesterday evening's passenger plane crash.
Andrew Riker: As a company with values centered on people, our hearts are heavy for all those who have been affected.
by this tragic event.
Andrew Riker: Our thoughts and deepest sympathies are with the passengers, crew members, and their families during this incredibly difficult time.
Operator, do we have the first question?
Speaker Change: Yes, Mr. Fitterling, your first question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
and many more. Thank you. Thank you.
Vincent Andrews: Thank you and good morning. Jim, if I could just ask you to revisit the three bridge items we talked about on the last call, you know, one of which was sort of
Vincent Andrews: operating rate or macro improvement. The second was, you know, the year-over-year Delta plan maintenance, which sounds like it's going to be neutral now. And then third was just sort of the startup of, you know, Dow projects that we're going to contribute. So if you could just update us on where you see those for 2025 at this point. Thank you.
Thank you.
Good morning, Vince. Thank you.
Speaker Change: On operating rate, I would say in fourth quarter, we saw some improvements in overall company operating rate, but on industry operating rate.
Speaker Change: Well, we're still not in an expansionary level yet. Europe has been a big weight on that. Europe continues to be, for the industry, about 20% below pre-COVID levels across the board.
Speaker Change: And if you get into other sectors like housing-related polyurethanes, it can even be lower than that.
Speaker Change: I'd say the operating rates in the Americas continue to be relatively strong.
Speaker Change: So you're talking about, you know, high 80s, low 90s percent types of operating rates.
Speaker Change: Bethlehem chain stronger than the propylene chain. Housing and automotive drive a lot.
Speaker Change: in the propylene chain and downstream silicones obviously doing better than siloxanes. The siloxanes rates are a drag on it mainly from capacity ads in China.
Speaker Change: year-over-year we've trimmed things obviously won't show up in first quarter but we're targeting to be flat year-over-year on turnarounds and that was a big part of the decision to defer the maintenance on one of the crackers in Europe
Speaker Change: Probably people don't realize that we have kind of an integration between Ternusin, Stata, and Tarragona. And so in addition to managing the ethylene part of the chain, we have to balance the propylene part of the chain as well.
Speaker Change: And so deferring that maintenance will allow us to save some costs this year. It'll also tighten up things from a balanced standpoint around the region. So we think that'll be a net positive.
Speaker Change: and then the startup of the Dow Projects in this year.
Speaker Change: We have several projects that are in flight. We have projects in polyethylene, which are on track to start up by the middle of the year.
Speaker Change: We have a couple of projects in industrial solutions that are on track to start up. And then longer term, we've got our Path to Zero project in Alberta, which is still on schedule for the end of 2027.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Mike Tyson with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Mike Tyson: Hey, good morning. I guess, you know, what we've heard so far is, is that is 2026 overall macro or demand.
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Mike Tyson: Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like it's going to be much better than 25. I mean 25 versus 24. Sorry.
Speaker Change: Yeah, you've got some headwinds here for higher FESA costs of energy.
I mean, they're actually...
Speaker Change: Should EBITDA be up, down, flat? I mean, how do you sort of look at that this year?
The End.
Speaker Change: Morning, Michael. Good question. On 25 versus 24, obviously, a big part of the $1 billion of cost actions we're taking are to underpin improved EBITDA in 2025. So, we've got volume growth, and I mentioned the projects that we'll have starting up this year, which all of them will be able to be sold out and be accretive from the point that they start up.
Speaker Change: So you'll have that. We're obviously not counting on a tremendous amount, although we've shown five consecutive quarters of volume growth, so we're still going to keep
Speaker Change: taking advantage of our low-cost position and get our share. But I think it's pricing power is the real question and that's the reason for the cost action is to underpin the improvement in EBITDA.
Speaker Change: I would say you also have to think about the markets and a lot will depend on demand in the markets.
Speaker Change: In PNSP, well I'd say in the ethylene chain in general, PNSP and ethylene oxide derivatives.
Speaker Change: have continued to be strong. You see that strength in industrial solutions. You see that strength.
Although we had some pricing slip in the fourth quarter.
Speaker Change: Overall, you see that strength in the integrated margins of TNSP.
Speaker Change: So I think that will continue to be a positive sign.
Speaker Change: I think we'll continue to take the actions that we need to take in Europe to tighten things up there. I don't want to...
Speaker Change: you know, be doom and gloom about Europe, but I think we have to be realistic that downstream demand is not coming back. And so we're going to have to take actions there to tighten things up.
Speaker Change: And then, of course, cash we're going to manage very carefully, which is why you saw the CapEx reductions that we announced to try to stay in a better cash flow position. And keeping our dividend strong is one of the number one priorities.
Hassan Ahmed: Your next question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global. Please go ahead.
Thank you.
Hassan Ahmed: Morning, Jim. You know, a question on TNSP. I'm just trying to sort of reconcile the guidance that you guys gave and what sort of polyethylene pricing you guys are baking in there. You know, you're clearly...
Hassan Ahmed: looking for a bit of a margin squeeze over there and you know we have a variety of sort of polyethylene price hikes on the table in the US contract wise
Hassan Ahmed: And obviously, you know, ethane prices have gone up as well. So, I guess a two-part question, what polyethylene prices are you baking in and what sort of ethane pricing environment are you baking in?
Speaker Change: I saw a great lead-in for me to welcome Karen to the call and ask her to cover PNSP and those two parts.
Karen: Good morning, and thank you for the question. I think it's important to go back to fourth quarter and really look at what happened from a pricing perspective. As you know, we saw market prices go down in October by 3 cents per pound, and then prices continued to decline throughout the quarter, really driven by not market moves, but also contract resets that occur generally at that time of the year. So we're coming into 2025 with low prices, but at the same time, as you indicated,
Karen: The cost increased almost immediately as we got into the year.
Karen: So we do have $0.12 per pound on the table for price increases in the fourth quarter, $0.07 in January, and $0.05 in February. And as you indicated, we are seeing both ethane and natural gas costs come up. And so those costs are outpacing the rate.
Karen: at which price increases are being implemented. But I just want to reiterate that it is really important.
Karen: that we are going to stand firm on our price increases. Margins have reached a place that they are unsustainable, so you should expect to see that we are going to be resolute in getting those price increases through.
I also think, Hasan, that...
Karen: Well the short-term moves and cost increases happen this time of year when the first
blast of winter hits and everybody.
I'll get the little dose of reality.
Karen: They also soften typically as the quarter goes on and you move into second quarter.
NASA gas production is strong. It was 106.
Karen: billion cubic feet per day last year. We don't see any change in that. The ethane frack spread is 50 cents a million BTU. That's
Speaker Change: a very good rate. I would say the only other thing is that propane naphtha advantage, you know, that slipped a bit back half of the year in Europe.
Karen: I think it's going to start to come back a little bit, but not dramatically. So it's another reason to balance things out in the cracker fleet in Europe.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekowskis with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much.
Speaker Change: The global commodity polyethylene industry is oversupplied, and between you and CP-Chem,
you're adding another eight billion pounds in North America
Speaker Change: And, you know, Dow is adding, you know, half of that between now and 2030.
Speaker Change: Do you really want to add that, or is your plan to close down your European assets so that there's no net addition? When we look at the Lyondell...
Speaker Change: results in Europe, what we see is that they don't make any money. I assume that that or they make little money. I assume that's the same for you. So the first question is, is do you really want a net addition or are you going to balance additions with closure?
Speaker Change: And then for Jeff, what happened to the cash flow? You know, that is, cash flow is a couple of billion lower than it was last year, EBITDA is.
Speaker Change: flat? Is that a one-time event? And how many shares are going to be issued for management comp this year to add to the share base?
Thanks.
Speaker Change: Yes, thanks for that. I'll take the first part on ethylene and then I'll have Jeff come in on cash flow.
Speaker Change: On supply-demand, I think it's important to remember that what we're adding in Alberta is 2 million metric tons.
Speaker Change: of Zero, Scope 1 and 2 Emissions, Ethylene, and Derivatives, and will convert a million and a half tons to zero emissions. So three and a half million tons of zero, scope one and two emissions, ethylene.
Speaker Change: And we're in negotiations now, positively, moving forward with customers for the offtake for that material.
Speaker Change: So it is, you know, a different part of the mix than what's available today. I do think your point is valid. We're seeing actions in Europe across the industry.
Speaker Change: which would tend towards reducing capacity in Europe which is high cost and there aren't any signs. I mean there's there's been a lot of good discussion in Europe around
Speaker Change: competitive positions are going to improve, so I think you're going to see some contraction there.
Speaker Change: And I think we have to look around the world at places that are not cost competitive.
Speaker Change: and Tighten Up There. Our investments are in cost-advantaged regions. Like we said in Alberta, you're talking about putting a cracker in the first quartile that has zero scope one and two emissions.
There's nothing of that scale anywhere in the world.
or those brand owners and those customers.
who want that product.
Speaker Change: Jeff, you want to cover the cash flow? Yeah, thanks, Jim, and good morning, Jeff. There are a couple of things here on the cash flow. In the fourth quarter, we did generate $800 million in cash from operations.
and our cash conversion rate was approximately...
Speaker Change: One of the things that we did intentionally do in the fourth quarter is because of our first quarter 2025,
heavy turnaround activity.
Speaker Change: We did purposely and intentionally build some additional inventory, especially as some of those turnarounds are going to be in some of our high growth areas from a business perspective. So some of that was very intentional, Jeff, in terms of the build of the inventory that we saw. In addition to that, you know, we continue to maintain a really strong cash conversion cycle that we've, you know, taken out eight days since then. And we continue to be very disciplined in our approach.
Speaker Change: to maintaining that ability to not only get the eight days out, but look for opportunities to get maybe another one or two days moving forward.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning. Jim, on the cost savings you announced today, on the direct costs, are those permanent or are they somewhat temporary? And of the 1,500 rolls that are being reduced or eliminated, what regions are they? I presume mainly Europe. And what businesses and functions are they attached to?
Thank you.
and others. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Morning, David. On the cost saves, we're trying to get the structural costs down and keep them at a low level.
Speaker Change: So, we're trying to make them as permanent as we can. It's about 75% third-party cost saves. It's about 25%.
Speaker Change: direct, which is a little bit lower on the direct percent than typical. I'd say on the third-party cost saves we feel pretty good about our ability to get that done.
Speaker Change: We expect to be at about a 60% run rate by fourth quarter and a full run rate by mid next year. Regions, I would say it's a combination.
Speaker Change: of regions and functions and businesses. So, you know, regions that are under economic pressure, obviously Europe and Asia is a focus.
functions where we've not seen productivity improvements.
Speaker Change: is the focus. And then we haven't announced a lot of site closures here. Our European asset review is still underway. We'll have updates on that by mid-year.
Speaker Change: but this is not loaded with site closure costs or anything like that which is why the charge is relatively nice.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Salvatore Chianofi: Yeah, thank you very much. It's Salvatore Chianofi, Need for Speed. Just wanted to go back a little bit to the full year.
expectations and I wonder
Are there any other...
Salvatore Chianofi: script items besides the maintenance plan that will be flagged year-on-year.
Salvatore Chianofi: such as, you know, the benefit of having the EG-2 unit operating for the full year that can help or be a headwind for 25 versus 24.
Salvatore Chianofi: And can you go back also on the polyethylene price increases that you spoke earlier, just for January, because there will be a non-market adjustment based on some trade publishers.
Salvatore Chianofi: How do you expect that to actually impact realizations in January versus December against the proposed contract price increases?
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Speaker Change: Yeah, so let me take a shot at the first half of your question which is on the full year and the things that we should take a look at as we're looking at full year outlook and then I'll ask Aaron to talk about the polyethylene prices part.
Thank you very much.
Aaron: So, you know, first quarter margins are going to be squeezed, as we said. I would expect the exit rate of the quarter in the first quarter to be higher as we land those polyethylene prices through the quarter and as some of the peat stock costs come off.
Aaron: So something in the ballpark of $1.4 billion a quarter from second quarter to fourth quarter could be more in line with how we performed if you looked at last year's results and the market backdrop that we've got.
Aaron: And then you've got about $300 million of cost reductions that we outlined today.
Aaron: Then you have the growth levers that we remain focused on, so we've got Texas-8 ramped back up. We've got our glycol-2 unit back up in the market. It reached full growth rates, or full production rates in the fourth quarter. You see that in the results in the fourth quarter.
Aaron: And then on top of that, we're counting on a little bit of help from GDP.
Aaron: to get there. So, you know, I think we will, I think we will see things improve. We have a bit in addition to the compression in first quarter on pricing.
Aaron: and PNSP, we've got the turnarounds, but the full-year turnaround number will be flat. Karen, do you want to talk a little bit about price and what you expect on the non-market side?
Aaron: And so in the first quarter, a little bit what we saw in December is we'll continue to see some contract resets.
Aaron: But then also, we also expect to see some non-market moves as well. But I think the key thing, as you think about first quarter from a margin compression perspective, is really that those feedstock costs
Aaron: are outpacing the rate of price increases. And so, if you think about it this way, you know, we have price increases that we are going to implement over the January and February timeframe.
Jim Fitterling: But the higher feedstock costs occurred right at the beginning of the year. So you are right. We will continue to see some market, non-market moves, but again a few more contract resets as we continue to grow our share on our volume. And then the other headwind that Jim just mentioned is that we are going to have a few more turnarounds on the energy side, but also on functional polymers.
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Speaker Change: Question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS. Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Hi, good morning. I was wondering if you could talk about the risk and potential mitigation activities you could do around tariffs, specifically around Canada. I mean, I think I assume that a lot of the tons from your facilities in Canada come into the U.S.
Speaker Change: versus export markets. I guess first, can you clarify what that mix is? And if that is right, what can you do to mitigate the impact or how do you plan around this?
Speaker Change: Yeah, good question Josh. I mean, I think the most important thing is what we're doing right now, which is engage
Speaker Change: with the administration on providing data for ourselves and also for the industry to understand the situation. And we're starting to see, you know, every day, like more refinement on what's happening.
Speaker Change: I think it's pretty clear in the near term the discussion is around getting control over immigration and the flow of fentanyl into the United States.
Speaker Change: We're relatively balanced with Canada. We trade both ways with Canada. A little bit more coming into the U.S. from a finished product standpoint, but we've got product that moves both ways.
Speaker Change: So trying to just have an overall picture of what the energy complex and the petrochemicals complex looks like there so that we don't create unintended consequences, and I don't think it's the administration's
Speaker Change: view to do something that's going to hurt the global economy. I think they want to try to create the situation where we continue to have growth and investment here.
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Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Chris Parkinson with Wolf Research. Please go ahead.
Chris Parkinson: Great, thank you so much. Jim, I just want to dive a little deeper. I think we did it last time, just how you're thinking about some of the EU assets by country, and I think last time we were going over the Netherlands and Germany, and you know, there are a lot of strategic reviews going on, you know, in intercontinental Europe right now, so just
Speaker Change: trying to think about the, you know, how you fit into like the larger picture in terms of these developments and how they're basically panning out over the next several years. Thank you.
Sure, that's a great question.
for this conference.
If you look at the EU, obviously the number one
The number one challenge is energy competitiveness, and so
Relatively speaking, you know, Spain has a
Decent advantage right now from an energy standpoint.
Speaker Change: So there we're looking with our partners at Repsol on how do we reduce the combined cost between the two of us.
on operations in Spain.
Speaker Change: When you get to the Netherlands, while we announced the idling of a cracker to avoid the turnaround cost this year, I don't want you to assume that that's the answer to the European Strategic Review.
Speaker Change: That really is just something that we have the ability to do this year to manage through the short-term situation. The Netherlands has been pretty competitive throughout and our cost positions have been pretty good there.
Speaker Change: We just have to look at the market for ethylene. We're a net merchant, ethylene seller. We've got to look at those balances, and we've got to look at the propylene market and balances, and that'll drive what we decide to do there. I'd say that the Netherlands is a country.
Speaker Change: are still very focused on energy and discussions recently, and they still haven't focused themselves on adding nuclear power generating capability, which I think is going to help them with their energy costs.
Speaker Change: Germany, a lot is going to depend on this election at the end of February. I think it's shaping up that there will be a change in the German government. And if you look at what happened post-COVID,
Speaker Change: Germany moved fast to take action when the Russian supply on gas was stopped.
Speaker Change: and now has five LNG import facilities operating, and it's really shifted the balance on LNG imports. However,
Speaker Change: The LNG import costs are $10 to $15 a million BTU into Europe so Longer term we have to look at what else can we do in Germany structurally to get the cost down
Speaker Change: I think it's going to require state action to make it happen. I don't think the EU is going to do something that drives this. I think it's going to require the states pushing back. And there's no state that has more heft in this discussion than Germany.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Frank Mitch with Permium Research.
Please go ahead.
Good morning and congratulations, Karen, on your new role.
Speaker Change: Jim, I want to ask about the III segment in terms of the first quarter. You're calling out a hundred million sequential headwinds, mostly from one-offs, excluding higher energy.
Speaker Change: segments. One would thought, you know, this US Gulf Coast freeze would be fantastic for your de-icing business, etc. So, can you give us a, you know, absent kind of these one-offs, what is really going on in those businesses as we sit here in the first quarter?
Speaker Change: Thanks for that question. So if I look at the first quarter and I'll take polyurethanes and construction chemicals first.
Speaker Change: You know, we're not really seeing any signs of demand recovering despite the interest rate cuts in the U.S. and Europe, and as you know, we have
Speaker Change: several applications in that business that are really sensitive to interest rates. So whether you're talking about, you know, bedding and furniture, but also obviously in the housing applications as well. And if you think about U.S. home affordability, it remains at its historic lows, but then also interest rates there are above seven percent.
Speaker Change: We also saw in the fourth quarter, automotives start to slow, and if you think about that from a U.S. perspective, those inventories are at 10-year highs. And so, you know, that's one of the reasons that we announced on the last earnings, the strategic review of our European footprint, really where we're looking at our polyurethanes in particular.
Speaker Change: And so then if I pivot to DIS there, what I would say is that overall demand really does remain stable. We are seeing some green shoots and global energy demand, and also pharma demand, which is really good for us.
Speaker Change: The icing, as you indicated, is a seasonal tailwind, so we'll see if the cold weather continues to persist.
Speaker Change: But then one of the things that's notable in the first quarter around BIS is that we do have increased turnaround there. We're taking our unit in C just down, so that will result in a tailwind for us. So I would say overall, on the polyurethane side, just continuing to see challenging market demand, market macros. But then also on the industrial solution side, with the continued ramp of glycol-2 that's now fully backed,
Speaker Change: We should see a tailwind there, but again, some of that is being muted with the turnaround that we see in first quarter.
Speaker Change: I would just add, Frank, on automotive, you know, the shape of automotive last year was a pretty strong start to the year.
in terms of production units.
Speaker Change: And you saw automotive, I think, being positive as they moved through the middle of the year and then toward the end of the year.
A lot of pull down on inventory and automotive, so...
dealer discounts and things happening. You saw China moving
Speaker Change: product in advance at the end of the year because they wanted to get ahead of tariffs.
Speaker Change: And so we, I don't know, but we could see similar, something similar happen this year where automotive starts strong again and we just have to keep an eye on what happens with inventories there and demand in the automotive sector.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Cunningham with Citi. Please go ahead.
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Patrick Cunningham: Hi, good morning. On the lower siloxane pricing environment, which is impacting PM&C, are China oversupply issues getting better or worse into 2025? And with the focus on more downstream specialties, would you anticipate taking any further actions on upstream assets, or do you anticipate others to take actions on capacity here?
Patrick Cunningham: Morning Patrick, good question. I'd say it's getting better but it's the pace of getting better is slow.
Patrick Cunningham: And, you know, I'd say the business is taking a look at the upstream side.
and what they want to do in that space.
Speaker Change: The downstream demand has been good, Kara. Maybe you can make a few comments about how you're seeing things there. Yes, so thanks, Jim. I mean, you know, downstream continues to grow.
Speaker Change: for us quite significantly, and if you look at even last quarter, we grew above GDP, and we expect that to continue to occur as we get into 2025. I mean, we are seeing really good downstream growth in markets like electronics.
Speaker Change: but also in home and in personal care. And so on the upstream, as you indicated, you did see pretty significant capacity additions, primarily in China in the 2022-2023 time frame. That has slowed significantly. But, you know, it's...
Speaker Change: We're continuing to see an overcapacity situation there. Over time, though, with the higher than GDP growth in those end market segments, we do expect it to come into balance. But we are staying squarely focused on continuing to grow those downstream applications and solar homes.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Kevin Mccarthy: Thank you and good morning everyone. Jeff, I was wondering if you'd walk through your view of non-operating sources of cash flow and uses in 2025.
Kevin Mccarthy: Specifically, I'm thinking about after-tax cash proceeds from your infrastructure deal.
Kevin Mccarthy: I think you have some pending litigation with Nova, if I'm not mistaken.
Kevin Mccarthy: and then any cash sources or uses associated with your new restructuring announced today as well as the strategic review of your asset base in Europe and other items you may care to call out. Thank you.
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Speaker Change: Yeah, good morning, Kevin. Yeah, if you look at our cash flow for 2025, a couple of things to consider here, if you
Speaker Change: take whatever the expectations are from an EBITDA perspective for the year. You know, I would assume right now an approximately 70% cash conversion rate.
Speaker Change: over the course of the year. We just provided a guide on the CapEx now in the range of $3 billion.
to 3.2, so on average midpoint there, 3.1.
Dividend, I would make the assumption there of $2 billion.
and as we mentioned on the call from a
the infrastructure policies perspective.
Speaker Change: up to $3 billion during the quarter of the year. Our net interest expense...
Speaker Change: guide is approximately $600 million on a full-year basis. We are continuing to make good progress on the NOVA judgment situation there, and we should have more to say about that throughout the course of the year. So I would say, Kevin, those are the primary puts and takes as you think about the cash flow walk from the beginning of the year through the end of 2025.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of John Roberts at Mizuho Security.
Please go ahead.
Speaker Change: Thank you. How much EBITDA is involved with the new JV with Macquarie and your minority interest for 2024 was only $85 million. If Macquarie goes to 49%, how high does that minority interest line item go to?
Speaker Change: Good morning, John. I'll take that one. This is Jeff. There's no EBITDA impact because this enterprise will be consolidated as part of our normal reporting results, but the impact will be more on the non-controlling interest line once the transaction closes.
Speaker Change: And obviously, the dividend impact on the cash flow statement will be the other sizable change that you will see over time. So we'll have more guidance to share once the transaction closes, and you'll be able to quantify the potential impact of that at that particular point. And again, we expect by mid-year to have the transaction closed.
and many more. Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Duffy Fisher with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
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Speaker Change: Two more questions on cash flow. So Jeff, I think you talked earlier about building some inventory for your planned turnarounds in the first half.
Speaker Change: Working capital ate about a half billion dollars last year when sales and COGS were down pretty meaningfully. So how much release do you think you can get on a full year basis from working capital this year?
Speaker Change: And then the second one is that other assets and liabilities line was a negative billion one in cash flow last year. What's in that and does some of that come back eventually?
Speaker Change: Good morning, Duffy. In regards to the first question around working capital, right now for 2025, we would make the assumption of a use of cash in the $300 million to $400 million range on a four-year basis. And as we look at the other liabilities.
Line.
Speaker Change: and assets. You know right now we're down about 900 million dollars to you over a year and that's really primarily driven by some of the long-term tax payables and related tax audit reassessments that we had throughout the course of the year.
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Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Michael Whitehead with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Michael Whitehead: Great. Thank you. Good morning, guys. I'll probably just put a bow on the cash questions.
Speaker Change: There's obviously been a lot of investor focus lately around the dividend, given the ongoing trough in your current cash generation.
Vincent Andrews: Dow is obviously quite proud of maintaining an industry-leading dividend based on your earlier comments and some of the actions you're taking to free up cash. So, can you maybe just lay out why Dow believes maintaining this level of dividend is sort of the best priority of cash here versus, say, using that cash for balance sheet support or even further organic growth investment?
Speaker Change: I'll take a shot at it, and I'll ask Jeff if he wants to add anything, but...
north of 65% of our owners.
count on that dividend, and so we listen very carefully.
Speaker Change: to what they want to see. And we have a lot of experience on how important the dividend is to our shareholders. And so that's why it's a top priority for us.
Speaker Change: Yeah, the only other thing I would add, Jim, is that, you know, we don't have any substantive debt maturities due until 2027, and the ones that we have in 2025, approximately about a half a billion dollars, we're in a good position to be able to support those debt repayments during the course of this year.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Alexei Yefremov with KeyBank Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Alexei Yefremov: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to clarify if your $1 billion cost reduction target includes the European actions that you will be discussing in the middle of 2025, or would those European actions be in addition to the $1 billion?
Alexei Yefremov: You'll have them in addition. I think there are some things that will probably have a little bit of overlap, but the asset discussions will be in addition to what we've just announced.
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Speaker Change: Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the Q&A session for today. I would now like to turn the call over to Andrew Riker for closing remarks.
Andrew Riker: Thank you everyone for joining our call, and we appreciate your interest in Dow. For your reference, a copy of our transcript will be posted on Dow's website within 48 hours. This concludes our call.