Q4 2024 Invesco Ltd Earnings Call
Speaker Change: Thank you for standing by and welcome to Invesco's fourth quarter earnings conference call. All participants will be on listen-only mode until the question and answer session.
Speaker Change: At that time, to ask a question, please press star 1. This call will last one hour. To allow more participants to ask questions, one question and a follow-up can be submitted per participant.
Speaker Change: As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Greg Ketron, Invesco's Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Greg Ketron: Thanks Cedric and to everyone joining the call today. In addition to today's press release, we have provided a presentation that covers the topics we plan to address.
Greg Ketron: The press release and presentation are available on our website at dusko.com. This information can be found by going to the investor relations section of the website.
Greg Ketron: Our presentation today will include forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please review the disclosures on slide 2 of the presentation regarding these statements and measures, as well as the appendix for the appropriate reconciliations to GAAP.
Speaker Change: Finally, Invesco is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of our earnings teleconference transcripts provided by third parties.
Speaker Change: GME-authorized webcasts are located on our website. Andrew Schlossberg, President, CEO, and Alison Dukes, Chief Financial Officer, will present our results this morning, and then we'll open up the call for questions. I'll now turn the call over to Andrew.
Andrew Schlossberg: Thanks a lot, Greg, and good morning to everyone. I'm pleased to be speaking with you today. During the fourth quarter and throughout 2024, we continue to make meaningful progress in executing our strategic priorities and leveraging our competitive advantages to improve on several key performance drivers.
Andrew Schlossberg: amid a backdrop of volatile markets across the world, mixed economic signals, and geopolitical risks. Our focus remains steadfast.
Andrew Schlossberg: This enabled us to deliver for clients and shareholders and meaningfully improve our operating results. I want to thank my colleagues around the world for their focus and teamwork throughout the year.
Andrew Schlossberg: But before we get into the specifics of the fourth quarter, we thought it would be helpful to look at the whole of 2024 and the progress made against the eight key financial measures that are noted on slide four of our presentation.
Andrew Schlossberg: The combination of strong, long-term net inflows of $65 billion, or a 5% organic growth rate, higher revenues, and disciplined expense management while reinvesting into the business
drove an increase in operating income to $1.4 billion.
Andrew Schlossberg: We generated positive operating leverage of over 100 basis points and improved our operating margins to over 31% for the year and 34% for the fourth quarter, marking good sequential momentum throughout 2024.
Andrew Schlossberg: While client demand and net flows remained more narrowly focused in the aggregate, we continued to gain market share and revenue growth in key high-demand strategic capabilities, including our global ETF.
Andrew Schlossberg: 5th income and SMA product ranges, all of which are highly scalable. We saw momentum build throughout the year for private and alternative credit strategies, both for institutional and wealth management clients.
Andrew Schlossberg: Geographically, our net long-term flows remain positive across all three of our regions, with a notable pickup through the second half of the year in both our Asia-Pacific and EMEA markets.
Andrew Schlossberg: Specifically in Asia-Pacific, we generated 10% organic growth, marking its best year since 2021.
Andrew Schlossberg: Throughout 2024, we remain highly focused on retaining and selectively growing our fundamental equity investment strategies against the backdrop of outflows in the industry and for Invesco. This remains a key focus for the firm.
Andrew Schlossberg: As we stressed throughout 2024, strengthening our balance sheet continues to be a priority.
Andrew Schlossberg: Through disciplined execution, we made strong progress and improved the financial flexibility of the firm. During the year, we reduced our debt, we improved our operating leverage, and ended the year with a net cash position of nearly $100 million.
Andrew Schlossberg: Additionally, after commencing a more consistent share buyback program in the second half of the year, we returned 54 percent of earnings to common shareholders through buybacks and dividends in 2024, which was an increase from the previous year.
Andrew Schlossberg: Our success in 2024 gives us conviction in our focused strategic priorities, our execution mindset, and our ability to continue to deliver enhanced and consistent operating performance and returns for our shareholders.
Andrew Schlossberg: Turning now to slide 5 and focusing on the fourth quarter, growth continues to be led by our highly innovative ETF and index platform which had near historic organic long-term flows of 30 billion dollars which is a 25% annualized organic growth rate.
Andrew Schlossberg: Importantly, we continue to see our flow through ETFs broadened by asset classes and factors across our clients in all three regions.
Andrew Schlossberg: Growth in the U.S. market continued to be led by our S&P 500 Equal Weight Strategy, our Equity Momentum Strategy, which accounted for nearly $5 billion of the net flows, and our Innovation Suite, which is headlined by QQQM, which garnered $3 billion of net inflows.
Andrew Schlossberg: This fund, which was launched just over four years ago, had one of its best quarters on record and has grown to nearly 40 billion dollars in assets today.
Andrew Schlossberg: We also saw strong ETF growth from the EMEA region, with nearly $11 billion of net inflows on a source basis, with our locally listed S&P 500 topping the list.
Andrew Schlossberg: We also continue to innovate at scale. In the fourth quarter, we launched a new ETF that we customized in partnership with a Finnish pension insurer to meet its climate-focused investment objectives.
Andrew Schlossberg: This ETF began trading with nearly $2.5 billion in assets and set a new milestone as the largest ETF launched on record.
Andrew Schlossberg: Our ETF platform finished the quarter with record AUM and revenues. Revenue growth remained strong, up 7% from the third quarter and 31% from the fourth quarter last year.
Andrew Schlossberg: We remain very well positioned to continue to gain market share and use this scale platform for profitable growth.
Shifting to fundamental fixed income.
Andrew Schlossberg: After a strong third quarter, we saw modest net long-term outflows in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by stable value, which continues to be out of favor in the current rate environment as money market yields are paying a premium to stable value.
Andrew Schlossberg: Excluding this specific U.S. defined contribution product, our fundamental fixed income strategies continue to see solid flow growth of one and a half billion dollars in the quarter.
Andrew Schlossberg: Within the Fundamental Fixed Income category, flow growth was led by our Municipal Bond Strategies and driven by our fast-growing SMA platform, which reached $28 billion in AUM, or 33% organic growth rate.
Andrew Schlossberg: Additionally, revenue generated from fundamental fixed income strategies grew by 9% in the fourth quarter as compared with the same quarter in 2023.
Andrew Schlossberg: It's important to note that our large and diverse fixed income product line, which totaled over $600 billion a year end, spans our geographic footprint and encompasses more than just our fundamental fixed income capability that's expressed on this slide.
Andrew Schlossberg: private credit strategies, and global liquidity, we generated eight percent AUM growth and net long-term inflows of nearly 27 billion dollars in 2024.
Andrew Schlossberg: Our fixed income capabilities have strong performance and are well positioned to meet client needs across the credit and duration spectrum, geographic preferences, active and passive exposures, and public and private markets.
Andrew Schlossberg: We have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about our ability to capture flows as money increasingly rotates into these asset classes.
Andrew Schlossberg: shifting now to private markets, which in aggregate drove long-term net inflows of nearly a billion dollars in the quarter.
Andrew Schlossberg: Within the category, our private credit capabilities reported net inflows of $3.5 billion, or a 31% annualized organic growth rate. Growth was driven by bank loans and CLOs across several fund structures, including our industry-leading senior loan ETF.
Andrew Schlossberg: In direct real estate, we also continue to see flows into NCREF, which is our real estate debt strategy targeting the wealth management channel.
Andrew Schlossberg: Launched only in 2023, this fund has doubled in size over the past two quarters and now stands at nearly $2.5 billion in AUM.
Andrew Schlossberg: I'll also note that our real estate team is well positioned in the institutional markets with over $5 billion of dry powder to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Andrew Schlossberg: Moving on to Asia-Pacific, on a managed basis in Asia, we saw a rebound this quarter with net long-term inflows of $3.5 billion led by positive flows from India and $2.5 billion of net inflows into our China JV. Our China growth was driven by equities, particularly ETFs, which are becoming a fast-growing part of our China business and where we see strong demand continuing.
Andrew Schlossberg: These flows were augmented by net inflows into fixed income. We had six new products launched in our China JV this quarter, including three ETF products.
Andrew Schlossberg: At a macro level in China, we are encouraged by the government's recent focus on economic stimulus, but overall market sentiment has remained relatively weak and volatility remains high.
Andrew Schlossberg: Looking more broadly at Asia-Pacific as a region on a client-source basis, net inflows were even stronger at seven and a half billion dollars for the quarter which is a 13% annualized organic growth rate.
Andrew Schlossberg: This broader flow strength in the region highlights our success in leveraging our global product suite and our investment capabilities to meet demand across this important growth region.
Andrew Schlossberg: We had good inflows in Southeast Asia, driven by ETFs, along with continued strong inflows in Japan through our global equity and income strategy, which had $1.5 billion in net inflows and continues to be one of the top-selling active retail equity funds in the growing Japanese market.
Thank you.
Andrew Schlossberg: Turning to our multi-asset related capabilities, we saw net long-term outflows of one and a half billion driven by global asset allocation particularly in our balanced risk allocation strategy.
Andrew Schlossberg: Finally, the relative pressure on fundamental equity flows has continued. However, as I pointed out previously, we have seen some moderation over time in the global, international, and emerging market segments.
Andrew Schlossberg: Net outflows in these strategies have been in the $2 billion per quarter range. Outflows in our emerging market strategies have been partially offset by the continued strength of global equity and income that I noted earlier, as well as net inflows in small cap equities.
Andrew Schlossberg: While asset flows and our fundamental equity capabilities remain below our long-term expectations, market growth has aided revenue, resulting in a 10% increase in net revenues this quarter compared with the fourth quarter of 2023.
Andrew Schlossberg: Our team continues to focus on driving high-quality alpha, upgrading our talent bench, and continuing to strengthen our risk management tools. Regardless of client demand, our focus remains on improving investment performance and gaining market share in key fundamental equity categories in which we compete.
Andrew Schlossberg: Moving on to slide 6, we provide an alternative aggregation of our AUM and flows to provide additional context for our business results.
Andrew Schlossberg: I've covered most of the key highlights underlying these charts, but I'll point out that the diversity of our assets and our flows across geography, channel, and investment style provide us the balance.
Andrew Schlossberg: and to weather any market condition and our ability to meet a range of client needs, which is an important part of our ongoing positive organic flow growth story.
Andrew Schlossberg: Moving on to slide 7, which shows our overall investment performance relative to benchmarks and peers, as well as our performance in key capabilities where information is readily comparable and more meaningful to drive results.
Andrew Schlossberg: Investment performance is key to winning and maintaining market share despite overall market demand.
Andrew Schlossberg: Achieving first quartile investment performance remains a top priority, and we're making progress on this front. Overall, nearly half of our funds are performing in the top quartile of peers across the 1-, 3-, and 5-year time horizons.
Andrew Schlossberg: Further, two-thirds of our AUM is beating its respective benchmark over all measurement periods. We continue to have strong fixed income performance with approximately 40% of our funds in the top quartile on a three- and five-year basis.
Andrew Schlossberg: We are acutely focused on improving fundamental equity performance, and we're making progress here, too. We have continued to improve the percentage of AUM in the top quartile of peers across each timeline shown, with a third or more now hitting that target.
Andrew Schlossberg: With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Allison to discuss our financial results for the quarter, and I look forward to your questions.
Andrew Schlossberg: and I am A M A D E E E A D E A D E A D E A D E A D E A D E
Allison: Thank you, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slide 8 with our fourth quarter financial results.
Allison: We continue to see strong growth in assets under management during the fourth quarter, with total AUM at the end of the quarter at $1.85 trillion, $50 billion, or 3% higher than last quarter end, and $261 billion, or 16% higher than the end of 2023.
Allison: Average long-term assets under management were over $1.3 trillion, an increase of 4% over last quarter and 20% over the fourth quarter of last year.
Allison: The increase in AUM was mainly driven by net long-term inflows, net inflows in our QQQ ETFs, and net inflows in the money market funds.
Allison: And like recent quarters, markets did not have a significant impact on AUM in the fourth quarter.
Allison: Net long-term inflows drove a $26 billion increase in assets under management during this quarter, representing an organic growth rate of nearly 8%. As Andrew noted, net inflows and our ETF and index capabilities were nearly $30 billion.
Allison: QQQ net inflows were $10 billion and money market fund inflows were strong at $25 billion.
Allison: Net Revenue, Adjusted Operating Income, and Adjusted Operating Margin all improved from the third quarter and showed substantial improvement from the fourth quarter of last year. I'll cover the drivers of that shortly.
Allison: Just as alluded, earnings per share was $0.52 for the fourth quarter, versus prior quarter EPS of $0.44.
Allison: We continue to strengthen the balance sheet, ending the quarter in a net cash position with cash and cash equivalents exceeding debt by nearly $100 million. Better than our goal of zero net debt.
Allison: We also continued share buybacks, repurchasing $25 million during the quarter, and we intend to continue buying back on a regular basis going forward.
Allison: Moving to slide 9, as we've noted in prior calls, secular shifts and client demand have altered our asset mix and net revenue yields as our broad set of capabilities has allowed us to capture evolving client product preferences.
Allison: Client demand has led to continued diversification of our portfolio, a trend we've seen for a number of years now. As a result, concentration risk in higher-fee fundamental equities and multi-asset products has been reduced.
Allison: The firm is increasingly better positioned to navigate various market cycles, events, and shifting client demand.
Allison: Consistent with prior quarters, current net revenue yield trends are included on this slide. The ranges by capability are representative of where the net revenue yield has ranged over the past five quarters. We note the net revenue yield drivers and where in the range the yields have trended more recently.
Allison: To provide context for the net revenue yield trend during the fourth quarter, our overall net revenue yield was 24.6 basis points.
Allison: The exit net revenue yield was 24.1 bp, 0.5 bp lower due to continued mix shift during the quarter.
Allison: Turning to slide 10, the revenue of $1.2 billion in the fourth quarter was $111 million higher than the fourth quarter of last year, an 11% increase, and $53 million or 5% higher than the third quarter.
Allison: Investment management fees were $123 million higher than last year and $29 million higher than the third quarter.
Allison: The increases were driven by higher average AUM, partially offset by the AUM mix shift previously noted.
Allison: Performance fees were $14 million higher than last year and $32 million higher than the third quarter, reflecting typical seasonality.
Operating expenses continue to be well managed.
Allison: Total adjusted operating expenses in the fourth quarter were $767 million, a slight decrease of $4 million, or less than 1% from the fourth quarter of last year. There was a slight increase of $11 million, or less than 2%, in adjusted operating expenses over the third quarter.
Allison: Compensation was $14 million higher than the fourth quarter of last year, which included $22 million of organizational change-related expense.
Allison: Higher compensation expense was driven mainly by higher revenue in 2024.
Allison: Compensation expense was $15 million higher than the prior quarter and mainly driven by higher revenue, including compensation associated with seasonally higher performance fees.
Allison: GNA was lower on both the year-over-year and sequential quarter basis.
Allison: G&A was $28 million lower than the fourth quarter of last year, due mainly to lower professional-related fees and an insurance reimbursement of $13 million in the fourth quarter of this year.
Allison: G&A was $11 million lower compared to the third quarter mainly due to the insurance reimbursement partially offset by slightly higher professional related fees.
Allison: We did move a small first wave of AUM on the Alpha platform in the fourth quarter.
Allison: Fees paid on the assets transitioned in the first wave were nominal expense-wise in the fourth quarter.
Allison: As the implementation continues, we expect alpha-related one-time implementation costs to be in the $10 to $15 million range per quarter in 2025.
Allison: Depending on the timing of when future waves are executed, which we currently expect will continue through 2026, the implementation costs will begin to fade as we approach full implementation of ALPHA.
Allison: Fees paid to State Street as we transition assets to Alpha will increase as future waves are executed. Under this scenario, the combination of implementation costs and total platform fees paid to third parties could peak late this year or during the first half of 2026.
Allison: Looking at 2025, we expect costs related to ALPHA, which includes both the implementation costs and fees paid to platform providers, to be 20 to 25 million dollars higher than 2024.
Allison: We'll continue to update our progress and related costs as we move forward with the implementation.
Allison: Regarding operating expenses for 2025, we will continue our disciplined expense management. We expect a slight uptick in expenses driven by the higher revenue levels that we are currently generating.
Allison: If you assume flat markets from year 2024, we would expect total operating expense to increase by approximately 1% over 2024.
Allison: That includes the higher alpha-related costs in 2025 that I noted.
Allison: Back to the fourth quarter, our quarter-over-quarter positive operating leverage was 330 basis points, driving a 41 million dollar or 12% increase in operating income and a 210 basis point improvement in our operating margin to 33.7 percent.
The effective tax rate was 22.2% in the fourth quarter.
Allison: We estimate our non-GAAP effective tax rate will be near 25%, the high end of our historic range for the first quarter of 2025, excluding any discrete tax items.
Allison: The actual effective rate can vary due to the impact of non-recurring items on pre-tax income and discrete tax items.
I'll wrap up on slide 11.
Allison: As I noted earlier, we continued to make progress on building balance sheet strength in the fourth quarter. We ended the quarter in a net cash position with cash and cash equivalents exceeding debt by nearly $100 million, better than our goal of zero net debt. We ended the quarter with no draws on our credit facility.
Allison: Our leverage ratios continue to improve, and we're now down to a leverage ratio excluding the preferred stock of 0.25, a significant improvement over the past several years.
Allison: We continued share buybacks in the fourth quarter, repurchasing $25 million or 1.4 million shares during the quarter.
Allison: We intend to continue a regular share buyback program going forward, and we expect our total payout ratio, including common dividends and share buybacks, to move closer to 60% in 2025 as we continually evaluate our capital return level.
Allison: To conclude, the resiliency and strength of our firm's net flows performance is evident again this quarter, and we continue to make progress on simplifying the organization and building a stronger balance sheet while continuing to invest in areas of growth.
Allison: We remain committed to driving profitable growth, high-level financial performance, and enhancing the return of capital to shareholders.
Allison: With that, I'll ask the operator to open up the line to Q&A.
Speaker Change: Yes, as a quick reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star, then one. Remember to unmute your phone and record your name and company clearly when prompted.
Speaker Change: And our first question comes from Dan Fannin with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Gregory Ketron, Laura Dukes, Gregory Ketron, Andrew Schlossberg
Speaker Change: Dan, you got totally jumbled for us there on the end. The one thing we heard was at Alpha and looking for what it was in 2024.
Speaker Change: Yes, and then maybe some sequential, the sequential expense bill for first quarter given the seasonality of things like payroll.
Okay.
Speaker Change: So let me address Alpha in 2024 first. Alpha was probably just under $50 million for 2024.
Speaker Change: And so in comparing that to 2025, as I noted, we would expect it to be in total $20 to $25 million higher than 2024.
Speaker Change: That's inclusive of all costs related to alpha. And then the expense guidance for the full year, as I noted, would be about a 1% increase over 2024, assuming flat markets from the end.
from 1231. That includes all of the alpha costs.
In terms of the sequential quarter build,
Speaker Change: I would just say, as I noted, the implementation costs for the quarter are going to be in that $10-$15 million range.
in terms of other expense line items.
Speaker Change: I would say there's always the typical seasonality in the first quarter as it relates to payroll taxes which tend to run in the $15 million kind of context, $15 to $20 million context. Of course, you've got seasonality in the fourth quarter with compensation related to the performance fees.
Speaker Change: Keep in mind, marketing tends to be seasonally higher in the fourth quarter, and I just don't expect a lot else to be very different. So I'd point to those seasonal items, and then point you back to the full-year guidance of 1%.
Speaker Change: Great, thank you and hopefully I come in clear here for the second one but wanted to follow up on capital management and just given the improved liquidity position how your M&A and or inorganic you know thought processes evolved given you know the stable and or improving liquidity profile.
Okay, yep, got it.
Speaker Change: On the capital management, I would say our priorities continue to be the same, which is we remain focused primarily in investing in our own organic growth, which I think we're demonstrating that we've got a fair amount of firepower there. And investing in those capabilities is, in fact, demonstrating the organic growth that we're looking for. So that is first and foremost.
Our focus, just given the diversified platform we have,
Speaker Change: how that relates to our inorganic focus. I would say it's very consistent with a lot of the conversations we've had in the past. Our capabilities are fairly well built out.
Speaker Change: across both the capability set but also our regional diversification. The one area where we probably don't have the full set of capabilities would be on the private credit side. We continue to be very thoughtful there. We have some depth of private credit.
Speaker Change: capabilities, but probably not the full suite we would like to have. It's also a very crowded and expensive space, as you know right now, and so we remain focused on growing both organically while keeping our eyes open and organically.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you. The next question comes from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Alex Blostein: Good morning. I'll send another one on expenses for you, just to make sure I have that clear.
Alex Blostein: The alpha implementation will run $10 to $15 million per quarter. It will peak at some point of time at the end of 2025, maybe early 2026, at which point you will also start to have
Speaker Change: sort of the expenses that you'll start paying State Street ramp as well. So, maybe help us understand kind of what are the run rate expenses you expect to pay State Street once all the assets have migrated over.
Speaker Change: So, which I guess will be at some point of time in 2026. And then ultimately, are there any legacy costs that you expect to fall off once Alpha is sort of fully implemented? Or is that kind of baked into your 10 to $15 million guidance?
Speaker Change: No, so let me kind of walk back through that again.
Speaker Change: I'll try to piece this together, and I can't tell you, I can't answer the question of what are the fees we would be paying to State Street because of course that's contractual.
Speaker Change: And so the way to think about it is this. Implementation costs will continue to be $10 to $15 million per quarter. That's consistent with what we've been running for the last number of quarters.
Speaker Change: If I look at the total cost of ALFA this year, which is both the implementation cost, which think of those as one time, the construction cost, if you will.
Speaker Change: combined with fees paid to platform providers, which there are existing and new fees that will be coming on. That's why we will be peaking as we are running parallel paths on a number of platforms.
Speaker Change: So thinking about that baked into our expense run rate for 2025 relative to 2024. That is a piece of the overall expense guidance, which is inclusive of everything that we provided, which is an increase of 1% over last year.
Speaker Change: The costs that will start to come out, that will be not until we are fully transitioned with all waves. So as we noted, the waves are going to continue through 2026, then we can begin to decommission systems. So the benefits we might see are too far out to guide to at this point.
Alex Blostein: Did that help, Alec? I got you. Yeah, I was just kind of trying to get, like, once those costs fade out, like, what is the net expense benefit we should expect, which sounds like some of that $10 to $15 will start to leave, but the ultimate benefit of that really won't show up until $27, if I hear you correctly.
Correct, and you are correct, once we are fully
Alex Blostein: implement and you will not have the implementation cost of 10 to 15 million a quarter. Those are truly construction costs if you want to think about it that way.
Speaker Change: Yeah, gotcha. Okay, thank you. And then my follow-up question I did want to ask you guys around China. It sounds like things have been picking up there. You and I had a conversation about this, you know, later last quarter just in terms of
Speaker Change: You know, the momentum you guys have seen in the ground that's showing up in flows. So talk to us maybe a little bit about the pipeline that you're seeing in the products there and your expectations for flows over the next couple of quarters.
Speaker Change: Yeah, so maybe I'll start and then Allison can pick up as well. We did, as we said, we saw, you know, two and a half billion or so of flows this quarter. Importantly, the launches we did and the focus in the market was
Allison: was on equity ETFs, which we're seeing more demand for equity markets through ETFs right now in China. And we're relatively early in building that out and the market's relatively early as well. We're also seeing flows into what's called Fixed Income Plus, which is more like a balanced strategy.
Allison: And so demand's been picking up there as well. To remind everybody, our business there is pretty diverse and balanced. So we're about 30% equities, 30% fixed income, 20% in this fixed income plus, and 20% or so in money markets.
Allison: The stimulus that's been put in place, and what we expect to be future stimulus throughout the balance of this year, is starting to raise confidence modestly, but I think the markets and the retail investors are going to need to see more. But to be getting organic growth despite all of that, we feel is a pretty good accomplishment.
Great, thank you both.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Brennan Hawkin with UBS. Your line is open.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question.
Speaker Change: A couple just sort of clarification items on on the expenses.
Speaker Change: Sorry to dwell here, but the 1% increase, that's versus the $3.3 billion adjusted reported base. Just want to confirm that. And then the $10 to $15...
Speaker Change: That we should expect in 2025, those construction costs, and then that's not expected to go into 26. I just wanted to confirm that. And Allison, I believe you noted a $22 million charge related to organizational change. Could you maybe give some color around what that is and what impact we could expect from that?
Speaker Change: The $22 million organizational change was 2023, so that was in my year-over-year comments. So that's rearview mirror, no organizational change expenses noted in fourth quarter of 2024.
Speaker Change: The expense guidance of 1% over 2024, yes, that is relative to the fully reported $3,030,000,000 operating expense base for 2024. And that's assuming flat markets to 1231.
Speaker Change: That guide is through 2025. I'm not prepared to speak to 2026 yet, but if we are still moving AUM over, there will be some implementation costs depending on where we are on the waves and the continued build of ALPHA. If it is possible, it could be higher, it could be lower than 10 to 15 as we continue to move assets in waves.
Speaker Change: But implementation costs will be a part of our expense base so long as we are moving assets over to Alpha until that transition is fully complete.
Speaker Change: Great, thank you It does. Thanks for clarifying on the organizational change. I guess I didn't hear that correctly Um, one of the things you guys talked I'd like to shift gears on alpha
Speaker Change: I expect that to manifest itself as you continue to progress through this rather substantial change in the organization.
Hey Brendan, it's Andrew. Thanks for the question.
Speaker Change: Look, I'll say the assets that we brought on board in the fourth quarter were relatively small, so it's, you know, it's too early to give a full answer, but the experience has been good from those equity investors of the team that's come across, or the platform that's come across.
Speaker Change: In terms of the wider simplification efforts and the advantages we'll get over time,
Speaker Change: Yeah, I'd sort of tie it back to the corporate strategy and the execution we've been on, which is...
to bring the investment platform closer and closer together.
and so as we
Speaker Change: scale through that platform as we have teams managing assets cross market, as we shift into different product lines.
a simple singular platform.
Speaker Change: that helps us decommission all sorts of homegrown systems and legacy, third-party systems, just makes that process, makes us much quicker.
Speaker Change: and executing that process and makes our investment portfolio managers and teams.
Speaker Change: you know, much more efficient at the way that they're able to execute. So I think, you know, we're ready to get this further moved on to the platform so that we can continue to have it enhance and drive the strategy and drive the operating leverage, frankly, that we've been seeing in the business.
Speaker Change: Okay, looking forward to hearing more as you continue to progress. Thanks for taking my questions.
Thank you. Thank you, Brennan.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Our next question comes from Bill Katz with TD Cowen. Your line is open.
Speaker Change: Douglas Goldstein, CFP®, is the director of Profile Investment Services and the host of the Goldstein on Gelt radio show.
Speaker Change: What does this look like in the end state? I think Alex was trying to get you there. So, A, what percentage of your assets would you anticipate being migrated over in 2025? And then as we get into some kind of quote-unquote normalized world where everything is migrated over and implementation costs phase out.
Speaker Change: How do we think about or how do we model to the onboarding costs on a go-forward basis? That's my first question. Thank you.
Thank you.
So, I mean, I'll start with...
Speaker Change: creates the least amount of disruption and really helps drive the efficiency of the business and it's really just the preparedness there.
Speaker Change: I'll probably hold on how the waves are constructed and what percentage we anticipate moving in 2025 just yet, but we will update you quarter to quarter as we are moving that on. As I noted, we expect to continue moving assets over throughout 2025 and into 2026.
Speaker Change: And so that end state, on the other side, we will give you more guidance as we continue to work through what that looks like. We do anticipate, I mean it is the vast majority, it's not almost all of our assets, but ultimately move on to the platform.
Speaker Change: So it has a number of system implications behind it as we look to streamline from a number of systems to a single operating system there.
Speaker Change: an organizational perspective, and so there are implications related to teams as well.
Speaker Change: So there are benefits on the other side, they just, as we are really focused on 2025 at the moment, they're a little further out than we're prepared to give the full guidance to, given that business continues to evolve in every other aspect.
Speaker Change: Hey Bill, the only thing I'd add is, just to add extra clarity, pretty much all of our public market assets will be ultimately on the Alpha platform.
Speaker Change: This wave construct that we're using, it's helpful because as we learn from each wave, we apply to the next wave and get those incremental benefits hopefully in speed, but also in working through the complexity of it.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Douglas Goldstein, CFP®, is the director of Profile Investment Services and the host
Speaker Change: You gave a little bit of a detail on your retail democratization and maybe where you can grow there beyond Inkraft.
Speaker Change: Maybe even in leveraging on the insurance side and then it's related to that if there's not a lot of deals to be had How should we be thinking about the payout rate 60% seems relatively low? Given that you've enhanced the balance sheet, and you have pretty good diversification and scale. Thank you
Speaker Change: Yeah, let me start. So, on the private markets and alternative build-out,
Speaker Change: As we noted, we do think there's a lot of organic opportunity here, and it's not just in taking our private real estate and alternative credit strategies and private credit strategies to the wealth management market. You will also see opportunities to enhance the institutional markets around the world. But wealth management should have the greatest growth rate, and we pointed out a few places where we're starting to see that take hold.
Speaker Change: The real estate debt strategy that we launched in CREF is a flagship for us, both because there's increasing demand in that space and there's less supply. And so we were pleased to see that fund double in size the last...
Speaker Change: a few quarters and now be at around two and a half billion dollars.
Speaker Change: You'll also start to see us build out around the alternative credit space.
Speaker Change: is that people want diversification as well. And so we're going to continue to look for strategies that might be multi-asset in nature.
Speaker Change: And then on the inorganic side, in addition to what Allison shared before about our capital priorities, and she can expand on the payout in a moment,
Speaker Change: Think about our inorganic strategy as focusing on partnerships as well. There's lots of conversations out there of ways that we can find partners to work with. We've been successful with joint ventures and partnerships.
Speaker Change: like we've had out in Asia, and so those conversations are continuing to be ones that we'll look at that can enhance the product line, can enhance our distribution channels, or access to capital from alternative sources.
Speaker Change: And as it relates to the payout ratio, there's a couple of things that...
Speaker Change: point to as we just think about what's the appropriate payout ratio is first as I noted our focus remains really investing in our own capabilities and so as we think about
Speaker Change: launching new capabilities, particularly in the private market space or along the partnership route, as Andrew noted. Those require cash, and we invest our own capital in order to get these things off the ground, and so we want to preserve
Speaker Change: for those organic growth opportunities that we have. The second aspect on my mind is we do have a debt maturity coming up a year from now, next January, another $500 million note.
Speaker Change: I don't know yet whether or not we will pay that off or refinance it. It kind of depends on the set of opportunities we have before us from an organic growth perspective and just where the markets are in the rate environment. But we want to preserve flexibility.
Speaker Change: to completely pay that down, if that's the best opportunity we have. And so, as we think about the payout ratio for this year, those are a couple of things in our mind.
Speaker Change: I mean, the choices and flexibility that we built that Allison was just pointing out was our goal in 24, you know, to be back in the market, buying back stock, which we did. But having that flexibility gives us a lot more choices here to deploy against our strategy.
Thank you very much.
Speaker Change: Thank you and our next question comes from Glynn Shore with Evercore, your line is open.
Hello, thank you.
Speaker Change: Okay, so hello, so the fourth quarter we had the insurance reimbursement But besides that the margin was still up markets big inflows down fee rate controlled expenses, so my question is
Speaker Change: I'm hoping for better than flat assets this year, but what's your thoughts around the margin?
Speaker Change: Knowing what we know, what you just said about the 1% expense growth, knowing that you're still inflowing nicely, but the fee rate does have some compression. How are you thinking about the margin in 25? Thanks.
Speaker Change: We're hoping for better than flat markets too and you know obviously we build our plan with flat markets because we think it's prudent.
Speaker Change: But this is certainly a business where we're all counting on and dependent upon growth in markets. And I think we're in a pretty diversified set of markets. And in any given year, we see we've got some markets.
Speaker Change: Working for us and some are working against us, but net-net we're hoping for also a positive year independent of that I'm bullish on our margin, and I'm bullish for a couple of reasons the number one thing We're managing to I mean we noted expenses. I would say 1% expense growth
Speaker Change: year-over-year, inclusive of all of these costs associated with ALPHA, I feel really good about them, and it's really...
Speaker Change: all of our investment capabilities and really thinking about that organic revenue growth. And I think if we can continue executing well against our focus there, we're going to see operating margin expansion in 2025.
In particular, I mean, we...
Speaker Change: We're giving you more and more color and we hope it's helpful to really get to that organic.
Speaker Change: fee rate trajectory. And I think you can see over the last couple of quarters where we've had a very strong organic fee rate growth in investment capabilities like fixed income and ATFS and private markets. We're really at about a break-even place for 24,0 opinions managed.
Speaker Change: and we're very optimistic that we can do a lot better than that in 2025. The biggest opportunity we have, no question, is narrowing the outflows in fundamental equities. That's been the headwind as it relates to that organic fee rate growth.
Speaker Change: And so our focus in our investment performance and fundamental equities and really defending our book of business there and really focused on the pockets of growth and the sales there, that's the number one thing we can do to expand revenue independent of any market changes and that's going to really get us to that operating margin expansion trajectory that we think we're on.
Speaker Change: Well, that's a perfect lead-in to the follow-up I had was, maybe, A, how do you defend fundamental equities besides just hate?
Everybody put up great performance.
Speaker Change: But my question is, how are you thinking about the active ETF lineup? Your ETF business has been growing. How do you think about what to transition to have an active tag-along product, if you will? And can that be part of the solution?
Speaker Change: number one is delivering investment quality. So that's going to be the number one port of port of focus. And that includes all the things that you'd expect from us on talent and risk, et cetera. Continuing to differentiate the product line and how we quote unquote wrap equity to go to market is going to be an important way that we both grow and defend.
Speaker Change: Also, the way that we deliver through our sales and client service efforts. So, it is...
It is continuing to be blocking and tackling.
Speaker Change: As it relates to active ETFs, just the starting point for us, just for
Speaker Change: So everyone has a baseline. We have about $10 billion in active ETFs, but we have another $20 billion or so of ETFs that are more passively oriented but involve our more fundamental or quantitative investment teams.
Speaker Change: And I think both of those areas are places where you're going to see us continue to grow as the ETF vehicle will continue to be a vehicle of choice. And we have the ETF platform. We know how to operationalize that, how to grow it at scale, and we have excellent active investment capabilities. So we've been launching some of those through the course of last year. You know, we'll continue to look for opportunities this year.
Speaker Change: But number one thing is having good, high-quality investment results, because that's going to really drive the success, whether it's packaged in a mutual fund or an ETF. But regardless, we should be able to win with the scale that we have.
Thanks, Andrew. Thanks, Al.
Speaker Change: Thank you. Thank you. The next question comes from Ben Budish with Barclays. Your line is open.
Ben Budish: Hi, good morning and thanks for taking the question. Just a high-level question around fee rates.
Speaker Change: It looked like the ranges for most of your categories were either kind of lowered at the midpoint or narrowed. If you could kind of comment on what's been going on there. Is it sort of ongoing, mixed shift within each category? Is it sort of competitive forces? And then I'm particularly curious in China, there were some headlines last quarter around some ongoing pressures to kind of lower ETF fee rates, so any color on what's going on there would be helpful.
Sure.
Speaker Change: I'll take that. You know, I would say it is primarily ongoing mix shift within the various categories that you're seeing there. If you think about the ETFs in particular, and that's one where you've seen that fee rate.
Speaker Change: that range narrow a bit and trend towards the low end.
Speaker Change: We continue to see really strong demand for capabilities like the QQQM and the S&P 500 Equal Weight. Those are going to be in the...
Speaker Change: kind of low, or sorry, mid to high single digits and really start to impact that fee rate down relative to perhaps the commodity strategies, which we just haven't seen as strong a demand for so you've got mixed shift going on within those capabilities.
Speaker Change: At the same time, you know, on APAC managed, I'd say that rate came down over the last five quarters, six quarters, because of the regulatorily mandated cuts that went into effect in 2023.
Speaker Change: Those were fully washed through in 2024. At the ETF pressure, I think our set of capabilities are well within the regulatory mandate, so we don't see that pressure really impacting our product lineup there.
Speaker Change: So within that, you know, I wouldn't say any of those trends are sort of permanent in nature. You know, it really is a function of the demand. And, you know, at the same time, we're seeing really strong demand for things like BKLM.
Speaker Change: which will be on the higher side. And so it's pretty demand driven and not any sort of secular pressure.
Speaker Change: Understood. And maybe a follow-up sticking on the ETF side. Andrew, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about, I think you mentioned $2.5 billion for a finished pension insurer. That sounded fairly interesting. I'm curious what the pipeline is like for those sorts of opportunities, sort of custom indexing within liquid ETFs. How do you see that opportunity set evolving? Thank you.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Yeah, I mean, something like the one we had last quarter is going to be more episodic. I wouldn't say that that, you know, there's a huge pipeline behind it. But, you know, there were two of them, I think, last year that were similar. So...
Speaker Change: But custom indexes, that's something that we see continued demand for. And it might not be just for an institution, it could be for a wealth platform, or it could be us customizing an index with one of the index providers.
Speaker Change: to come up with a specific need that we see in the marketplace. So I see custom indexing demand growing for, over time, these big, chunky institutional type capabilities more episodic.
Got it. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: I think our next question comes from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Speaker Change: So there's signs that ETF adoption in Europe is really picking up steam, with some even starting to call the long-anticipated, quote-unquote, catch-up with the U.S. has really started.
Speaker Change: Firstly, do the trends you are seeing suggest that catch-up is in progress? And secondly, given your legacy book of much higher fee active funds in Europe, do you see that shift as a positive or negative for Invesco? Thank you.
Speaker Change: Yeah, you're right to point out the growth in EMEA and some of the demand pickup there. We do think it's, you know, an early stage.
Speaker Change: Secular trend that we've been waiting to come in Europe as we've been in that market for some time, both with our ETF range and with our broader institutional wealth management teams on ground. And so, we do expect that to continue to pick up. We're I think over $125 billion or so in ETF assets out in that region.
Speaker Change: With regard to where demand will come from, the private banks are quite strong in that market, and it's been largely an institutional market. We see that it could continue to pick up on the more retail side.
Speaker Change: I'd say our lineup ranges, it's equity heavy, but we have a strong fixed income lineup that we built and incubated over many years, and I think we'll see both sides of that equation.
Speaker Change: and clearly bringing active portfolios into EMEA and ETF wrappers is something we expect to happen just like it's occurring in the U.S. So, we're cautiously optimistic about EMEA ETF growth.
Speaker Change: And I would just say as it relates to the fee rate, I mean, that would be a driver of some of the mix you're seeing in terms of the fee rate and the ranges being on the low end or kind of trending to the lower side on the ETF fee rates.
Speaker Change: because you do see, you know, they are slightly lower fee rates in Europe relative to the U.S. lineup.
Speaker Change: But again, importantly, I go back to our focus is on organic fee rate, organic revenue generation. And the growth we're seeing there and the demand there is extremely positive towards overall organic revenue growth. And so it's a net positive in our view.
and just ETFs in general, you know, the...
Speaker Change: Running an efficient platform, you know, one that uses technology, one that uses our operational prowess and uses our size and scale, whether we're bringing products in the U.S. or Europe or out in Asia, we have the platform that we can create operating leverage from.
Speaker Change: Got it. And then as a quick follow-up, it seems like you started to hint that you've been working with MassMutual on options for the preferred. Any updates on that front? As I imagine that the now hire for longer mentality could conceivably make the paper less attractive to them.
Speaker Change: No updates. It is a topic of ongoing conversation on both sides. It's not just the rate for them. It is, again, that was
Speaker Change: That was the financing mechanism for the acquisition of Oppenheimer, which
Speaker Change: and there are tax, capital and rating considerations on their side, not simply rates relative to market rates. It is a topic of ongoing conversation as we look at are there perhaps ways to make it maybe more flexible in the future. But no update.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thank you. And our next question comes from Ken Worthington with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.
Ken Worthington: Great. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I'd love to dig into the institutional business a bit more broadly.
Speaker Change: Where is Invesco having success in building the pipeline and winning new business? I know you called out alternatives, but are there other areas as well? And how does the business that you're winning compare to the business you're losing? Thank you.
Speaker Change: Maybe I'll just start at the highest level of kind of how's the business doing at today.
Speaker Change: expand actually and improving coming into 2025 in terms of both absolute size and the quality of the capabilities that are we're really looking at being
probable, and 2025.
Speaker Change: It really spans all three regions and all investment capabilities and you do see the barbelling impact there. I mean there are
Speaker Change: It's continued growth and going to eat you up in indexing capabilities, but also continued growth on the private market side and the real estate pipeline remains strong there.
Speaker Change: with a fair amount of committed capital that is yet to be deployed. So, the fee rates there look good, too. They continue to be on the high end of our range, which is usually that mid-20s to mid-30s range, and we continue to see the pipeline be on the high end of that range.
Speaker Change: So, you know, I'd say overall attractive characteristics and maybe Andrew can add a little more color in terms of what we're seeing from just kind of a client, a regional perspective. Yeah, to add to what Allison was saying, fixed income is the other area.
Andrew Schlossberg: where institutional demand and flows have been pretty good. And the strength of our fixed income platform that I described...
Andrew Schlossberg: We think will be the place, in addition to the alternative and private market side.
where we should, you know, we're focused on picking up.
Andrew Schlossberg: momentum in fixed income. The other place I'd say is select into equities institutions are reallocating their portfolios and we're seeing some increased demand for Asian equities, global equities, and in that space as well, but it's very, very competitive.
Speaker Change: Great, thank you. And then the other side of the equation, the business you're losing, what does that look like?
Oh
Speaker Change: I wouldn't say it's, you know, if I look at what the outflows were in the fourth quarter, a lot of it we noted. There were some outflows in our balance risk strategies in GAA, and that's just a strategy that's been out of favor. We also saw outflows in stable value in the quarter, and that's really because of just the rates and the arbitrage there in terms of where money market rates were relative to stable value. So those are maybe what I would point to from a trend perspective.
Speaker Change: And I think that last point being, you know, temporary or cyclical in nature.
Speaker Change: We're the leading, if not, you know, one of the leading stable value providers so when that when that market comes back in demand we should do just fine.
Great, thank you much.
Yes, Cedric, we have time for one more question.
Speaker Change: Okay, and our last question comes from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Brian Bedell: Thanks so much for squeezing me in there. Most of my questions have been asked, but maybe two, one just back on the operating margin outlook, maybe Allison just your view on the comp-to-revenue ratio that's within your 1%.
Brian Bedell: guide under flat markets, and then let's say if equity markets are up 10% on a linear basis throughout the year. Yeah, how would that impact your comp to revenue ratio?
Brian Bedell: Yeah, I would say our comp to revenue expectations are, really, we think about it independent of where markets are. We really look at it relative to revenue. Historically, we have been, you know, closer to the 40 to 42 percent kind of context. You saw us in the past year, just over 43 percent.
Brian Bedell: I don't know that in 2025 it is very revenue dependent. You know, if we had really strong revenue, could we get back down to 42%? Possibly.
Brian Bedell: Without that, we may be looking at something closer to 43%. Our longer-term objective is to bring that back to that 38% to 42% range.
Brian Bedell: We have historically operated, and I will point out when we think about total compensation, and in the past, years ago, we didn't always have things like severance expense and organizational change expense in there. Because we don't have TIR, it is a fully loaded P&L, and that has driven it a bit higher to that 42-43% context.
and I think that's still a reasonable expectation for 25.
Speaker Change: Great. That's helpful. And then just lastly, just to come back to the active ETFs, and thank Andrew for your comments on that prior question, maybe more specifically for active equity ETFs, if you can talk about your view on cloning current active mutual fund strategies, obviously the ones that you...
Speaker Change: Demand for either a clone or something that was very similar to those strategies.
Speaker Change: within the ETFs, and I guess it's the only pushback either on fee, pressure, from a cannibalization perspective, or are you seeing maybe potential pushback from the distribution channels that may prefer the mutual funds in terms of the sales practice?
Thank you very much.
Speaker Change: Yeah, I mean, there's many paths to where active, you know, can further end up in ETS, and you mentioned a few of them. Some of them could be conversions.
Some of them could be people doing cloning.
The other is potential
Thank you.
Speaker Change: ETF share class on a mutual fund which you know, there's regulatory discussions going on
in the marketplace.
Speaker Change: So I think all of those avenues will continue to be ones that we look at to move forward. You know, I can't speak for every distribution and wealth platform, but, you know, my experience, our experience is they want high quality product and they want it, you know, in multiple vehicles and wrappers.
Speaker Change: Being able to clone things and moving it over sounds nice and elegant, but it's not always the simplest way to do it. It's an avenue we'll look at, but it's not the core path I think we'll be on.
Great, thank you very much. Thank you.
Okay, Mr. Schlossberg, back to you.
Speaker Change: Yes, thank you operator and in closing I just want to say we're very well positioned to help clients navigate the impact of evolving market dynamics
Speaker Change: As market sentiment improves and client convictions continue to strengthen, this should translate to even greater scale performance and improved profitability for Invesco as we discussed today.
Speaker Change: given all the work we have done to strengthen our ability to anticipate, understand, and meet evolving client needs.
Speaker Change: I am very excited for the future of Invesco. Again, I want to thank all of my colleagues at Invesco for their continued hard work in 2024. And as we turn into 2025, I'm proud of our collaboration and our focus on our clients.
Speaker Change: I want to thank everyone for joining our call today. Please continue to reach out to our Investor Relations team for any additional questions, and we appreciate your ongoing interest in Invesco and look forward to speaking with all of you again soon.
Speaker Change: Thank you. That concludes today's conference. You may all disconnect at this time.
Thank you.