Q4 2024 Allegiant Travel Co Earnings Call
Thank you. Thank you.
Rebecca: Thank you for standing by. My name is Rebecca and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Allegiant Travel Company fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call.
Rebecca: All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star 1 again. Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Sherry Wilson, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Sherry Wilson: Thank you, Rebecca. Welcome to the Allegiant Travel Company's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call. We will begin today's call with Greg Anderson, President and CEO, providing an update on our business and high-level overview of our results.
Speaker Change: Drew Wells, Chief Commercial Officer, will walk through our revenue performance and outlook. And finally, Robert Neal, Chief Financial Officer, will speak to our financial performance.
Speaker Change: Following commentary, we will open it up to questions. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.
Speaker Change: The company's comments today will contain forward-looking statements concerning our future performance and strategic plan.
Speaker Change: Various risk factors could cause the underlying assumptions of these statements and our actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by our forward-looking statements.
Speaker Change: These risk factors and others are more fully disclosed in our filings with the SEC.
Speaker Change: Any forward-looking statements are based on information available to us today. We undertake no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of future events, new information, or otherwise.
Speaker Change: The company cautions investors not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which may be based on assumptions and events that do not materialize.
Greg Anderson: To view this earnings release as well as the rebroadcast of the call, feel free to visit the company's investor relations site at ir.allegianair.com. And with that, I'll turn it to Greg.
Greg Anderson: Sherry, thank you and good afternoon everyone. We appreciate you joining us today.
Speaker Change: Before we get into it, I wanted to take a moment to extend our heartfelt condolences to the loved ones of the passengers and crew who were involved in the tragic accident near DCA Reagan Airport last week. Our thoughts are with the individuals, their families, and all those impacted during this difficult time.
Now to our earnings report.
Speaker Change: We concluded 2024 with a commendable performance, achieving an adjusted airline-only operating margin of over 13% for the December quarter, marking a 6.5 point increase from the previous year.
Speaker Change: This was driven by a 16% increase in December capacity, primarily due to aircraft utilization averaging 9.6 hours per day during the peak holiday period, reflecting a 21% year-over-year increase.
Speaker Change: Despite significant growth during the peak period, our team attained a controllable completion rate of 99.7% and I want to thank them for ensuring smooth operations during one of the busiest times of the year.
Speaker Change: Last year, we introduced three primary initiatives, one of which focused on restoring utilization during peak leisure demand periods.
Speaker Change: A goal we successfully achieved in December and expect to maintain this momentum throughout 2025, particularly during spring and summer peak periods.
Speaker Change: Additionally, we prioritize upgrading our commercial technology and introducing new MAX aircraft.
Speaker Change: And we have made substantial progress in both of these areas.
Speaker Change: The ongoing optimization of our Navitaire system has already led to incremental improvements and is expected to continue enhancing revenue throughout 2025.
Speaker Change: Furthermore, we ended the year with 4 MAX aircraft in service, beginning to address operational inefficiencies caused by previous aircraft delivery delays.
Speaker Change: The tactical excellence demonstrated by Team Allegiant around these three key priorities significantly strengthens our foundation for improved performance.
Speaker Change: Underlying our execution is the deliberate efforts of being laser focused on our core strength, the airline.
Speaker Change: Consequently, a significant step in this strategy is the goal of transitioning Sunseeker off Allegiance balance sheet.
Speaker Change: Over recent months, we have made significant progress in our strategic review of Sunseeker. This unique resort, located in a popular state, offers excellent amenities and is managed by a highly skilled team.
Speaker Change: We have great confidence in Sunseeker's future success and have observed material improvements in its financial performance.
Speaker Change: Nonetheless, we need to acknowledge that a new capital partner will be important for Sunseeker to achieve its full potential.
Speaker Change: As such, we have launched a competitive process with our team of experienced advisors for a potential sale or stake sale and have received promising indications of interest from several high-quality name investors.
Speaker Change: Our goal is to conclude this process by summer. We will update when appropriate and BJ will touch on the impairment announced last week and how we are guiding for the resort.
Speaker Change: Further strengthening our balance sheet remains crucial. Although leverage is improving, there's still work to be done and it continues to be a key focus for this management team.
Speaker Change: Fortunately, we own the vast majority of our aircraft, which has allowed the fleet team to strategically sell older, underutilized A320 assets in a favorable market, resulting in substantial cash proceeds supporting our deleveraging efforts.
Speaker Change: The sale of these assets is aligned with our growing confidence in the delivery schedule from Boeing.
Speaker Change: Given the firmness of the aircraft market and the timing of our order, each MAX delivered and purchased represents significant value.
Speaker Change: In addition to the day one equity value, the operating economics of our MAX aircraft exceed the fleet average by as much as 30%. To add to that, every new aircraft delivered to us is configured with our impactful premium seating product, Allegiant Extra.
Speaker Change: Currently, 46% of our fleet is equipped with our Allegiant Extra product and we plan to end the year at 70%. This compares favorably with prior year's average of 23%.
Speaker Change: We continue to see strong demand from our customers for this premium seating as we expand the product more broadly across the network.
Speaker Change: Similarly, the Allegiant Always credit card continues to perform as we expect to receive more than $140 million in total remuneration during 2025.
Speaker Change: As we advance our commercial technology infrastructure, we are enthusiastic about the future products we will introduce to our customers, aiming to drive more to the top line and improve upon our industry-leading ancillary revenue.
Speaker Change: Starting out 2025, we have a clear path ahead to deliver on.
Speaker Change: The industry capacity backdrop is one of the most constructive we have seen for some time.
Speaker Change: The health of the consumer is strong, and we are well positioned to capitalize on this trend with expected capacity growth of over 15% throughout the year.
Speaker Change: This growth will further enhance our operational efficiency by utilizing our existing infrastructure and expanding productively.
Speaker Change: The midpoint of our airline full-year EPS guidance of $9 suggests an improvement in earnings of over 50% compared to 2024.
Speaker Change: This is an exciting new chapter for Allegiant, which would not be possible without the ongoing excellence demonstrated by Team Allegiant and their persistent dedication and hard work. Additionally, I am encouraged by recent progress in contract negotiation with our pilot team.
Speaker Change: It is a privilege to work alongside the most talented team in the industry as we strengthen our position as a leading airline in the communities we serve, delivering reliable, nonstop travel at unbeatable value. And with that, I'll turn it over to Drew.
Drew Wells: Thank you, Greg, and thanks to everyone for joining us this afternoon.
Drew Wells: We finished 2024 with $2.44 billion of airline revenue, approximately 2.6% below the prior year, on total ASMs 1.1% higher.
Drew Wells: Our fixed-fee and operations teams did an incredible job leveraging the available aircraft space all year to an allegiant record $81 million of fixed-fee revenue.
Drew Wells: Further, our total ancillary per passenger of nearly $76 improved almost $3 versus 2023.
Thank you.
Drew Wells: Our fourth quarter total airline revenue of nearly $610 million was up slightly on a year-over-year basis.
Drew Wells: This result significantly outperformed our expectations during our last call and outpaced our revised expectations in early December.
Drew Wells: The main drivers of the outperformance were faster-than-expected recovery to hurricane-impacted destinations, continued core ancillary strength, as well as a stronger-than-expected holiday period.
Drew Wells: Over the Christmas week, we operated our aircraft roughly 9.6 hours per aircraft per day.
in line to slightly above our 2019 levels.
Drew Wells: I could not be more proud of the operation and all of our team members that successfully navigated the push.
Drew Wells: In total, the three-week holiday period consisting of the last two weeks of December and first week of January grew more than 14% year-over-year while ending just better than negative 1% unit revenue.
Drew Wells: The increased utilization over the holidays, along with post-Thanksgiving travel falling into December, drove December ASMs 16.4% higher year-over-year in a theme that will continue into 2025.
Drew Wells: The first quarter capacity is expected to grow 14% vs. 1Q2024, while the year as a whole is expected to be up 17% vs. 2024.
Drew Wells: The first quarter will mark the first time in three years with quarterly growth over 10 percent.
Drew Wells: In fact, only two of the last ten quarters exceeded one and a half percent.
Drew Wells: Pre-pandemic, you'd have to go back to 2011 to find the last year without a single quarter over 10% ASM growth.
Drew Wells: The planning team is ecstatic to have some flexibility and freedom in deploying capacity once more.
Drew Wells: This means growing in high-demand months, announcing new routes, and testing to limit the route-level capacity. It allows the team to focus on driving dollars to the bottom line, rather than trying to fit 12 pounds of good flying into a 10-pound bag.
Drew Wells: Diving into that growth a little bit, while we have focused heavily on flying in peak months, just about a third of net growth will take place in March, June, and July.
Drew Wells: And roughly a third of that will take place on peak leisure days in those peak leisure months.
Drew Wells: Over half of all growth will come in shoulder months like February, April, and August. April being a large beneficiary due to Easter shifting later.
Drew Wells: The dynamics of that flying are different than a typical year.
Drew Wells: On average, a third of seats in any given week during the first half of the year will be in existing markets flying more than any prior year.
Drew Wells: This produces 300% more seats operating in excess of prior years versus the first half in 2024.
Drew Wells: Also, between 4% and 5% of seeds will be on new routes.
Drew Wells: In mid-November, we announced a record-tying 44 new routes with start dates in spring and summer 2025.
Drew Wells: The long lead time means it's still early to judge many of the routes, so we're particularly excited about new service to our three new cities, Colorado Springs, Colorado, Columbia, South Carolina, and Gulf Shores, Alabama.
Let me touch on Gulf Shores a little more.
Drew Wells: We've heard from our customers that they travel to the Alabama coast for an annual vacation, but currently drive as much as 15 hours each way.
Drew Wells: This looks a lot like prior Allegiant success stories like Ponta Gorda or Destin, Florida, where we've been able to spur additional trips each year owing to our unique and affordable non-stop network.
Drew Wells: Whether through new routes or increased frequency, our general approach to 2025 is growing into our infrastructure.
Drew Wells: And while the growth profile I just outlined will have unit revenue impacts in the near-term, we strongly believe the benefits of the flying will still outweigh the marginal cost of that increased flying.
Drew Wells: The added elevated flying will either work and continue to mature into future seasons or be trimmed back if it doesn't produce.
Drew Wells: In addition to the growth-driven unit revenue impacts, Easter timing will play a role in shaping the final result for leisure-oriented carriers like us in both the first and second quarters.
Drew Wells: When combining the headwind of Easter timing and the tailwind of New Year's travel, we expect a one to one-and-a-half point headwind to Trasim in the first quarter.
Drew Wells: Additionally, a mild stage increase through the first half of the year will carry an additional one point headwind.
Drew Wells: Lastly, while our network has diversified away from near-border exposure in the last 10 to 15 years, the strengthening U.S. dollar to 20-ish year highs against the Canadian dollar has applied some pressure on those origination cities.
Drew Wells: Many of the same initiatives that supported ancillary growth in 2024 will continue to produce benefit into 2025 to help mitigate the impacts of growth.
Drew Wells: Aircraft with the Allegiant X allowed will see more than five times as many departures in the first quarter of 2025 versus the first quarter of 2024.
Drew Wells: For the full year, more than two-thirds of departures should have an Allegiant X-ray aircraft.
Drew Wells: We continue to regain lost functionality from our 2023 Navitaire Cutover.
Drew Wells: We expect to fully recapture the lost $2 per passenger in the first half of 2025, and the $2 of expected upside early in 2026.
Drew Wells: Finally, the contribution from Allianz Travel Insurance has roughly doubled on a per-passenger basis since its launch in February.
Drew Wells: All things considered, we expect 1Q TRASM down slightly more than negative 6%, implying airline rentals excluding fixed fee up about 7% for the quarter.
Drew Wells: We ended the year with another phenomenal performance from our co-branded Visa Allegiant Always program.
Drew Wells: We continue to add new cardholders at a great clip, ending 2024 with over 540,000 accounts.
Drew Wells: This kind of scale gives us confidence that the program offering has matured nicely, and we are excited to collaborate further with our bank partners to better both engage our existing cardholders and ensure we're providing the best offering for existing and future cardholders alike.
Drew Wells: The power of loyalty revenue is evident across the industry, and we believe our program is still in the early days of its full potential.
Robert Neal: And now I'd like to hand it over to Robert Neal.
Robert Neal: Thank you Drew. Good afternoon everyone and thanks for joining us today. As I speak to our results and guidance this afternoon, please note that all of these are on an adjusted basis and will exclude any special items.
Robert Neal: In the fourth quarter, we delivered net income of $38.9 million on a consolidated basis, yielding earnings per share of $2.10.
Robert Neal: The airline segment reported an adjusted net income of $55.6 million or earnings of $3 per share.
Robert Neal: For the full year, we posted a consolidated net income of $45.7 million, resulting in a consolidated EPS of $2.48.
Robert Neal: Our airline segment generated full year 2024 net income of $107.5 million, or $5.84 of airline-only earnings per share.
Greg Anderson: As Greg and Drew have highlighted, we began seeing notable financial strength in the quarter driven by improved peak utilization, implementation of revenue initiatives, and delivery of 737 MAX aircraft ahead of our estimate.
Greg Anderson: The airline earned $139.2 million in EBITDA during the quarter, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 22.8%, which is nearly seven points higher than the fourth quarter of 2023.
Greg Anderson: On the cost side, fuel averaged $2.50 for the quarter, in line with our expectations.
Greg Anderson: Adjusted non-field unit costs were $0.0829, an improvement of 2.5% year-over-year, slightly underperforming the estimate we provided in December.
Greg Anderson: This miss was driven by increased stock compensation related to the share price increase throughout the quarter, a maintenance expense trip, and timing-related impacts from a new maintenance and materials system which went live in the third quarter.
Greg Anderson: As a reminder, fourth quarter CASMX does include roughly $20 million dollars related to our pilot retention bonus.
Greg Anderson: For the full year 2024, we had unit costs of 5.4% on capacity of 1.1.
Greg Anderson: While we had a tailwind from serviceable engine sales mentioned in our December traffic release, we saw cost headwinds from eight months of our new flight attendant CBA and four additional months of our pilot retention bonus accrual as compared to 2023.
Greg Anderson: Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the year with $1.1 billion in available liquidity, including $833 million in cash and investments, and $275 million in revolver capacity.
Greg Anderson: Net leverage improved almost a full term from the end of the third quarter down to 3.2 times.
Greg Anderson: This result was achieved by improved fourth quarter earnings, proceeds from equipment sales, early debt repayments during the quarter, and benefits from our amended agreement with Boeing as disclosed in November.
Total debt balances were down nearly $200 million during 2024.
Greg Anderson: As mentioned on our October call, we expect that the third quarter marked our peak leverage, and based on current fleet expectations, we should continue deleveraging throughout 2025.
Greg Anderson: While we'll continue to invest in the business, the balance sheet remains a top priority for this team.
Greg Anderson: Fourth quarter airline capital expenditures included $34.1 million in aircraft and engine related spend, other airline capex of $8.8 million, and $18.7 million in deferred heavy maintenance costs.
Greg Anderson: For the full year, total airline capital expenditures were $326 million, $16 million higher than our forecast, with three more aircraft in service than contemplated at the third quarter earnings call.
Thank you very much. Thank you.
Greg Anderson: Following downward revision to earnings estimates for our Sunseeker entity throughout 2024, the assets were tested for recoverability and we recorded a total non-cash impairment of $322 million in the fourth quarter.
Greg Anderson: As of today's call, we've fully repaid the debt associated with Sunseeker Assets, allowing us to increase flexibility as we continue evaluating strategic alternatives for the resort.
Greg Anderson: Moving over to fleet, during the quarter we retired one A320CO and placed into service three 737 MAX aircraft, ending the year with 125 airplanes in our operating fleet.
Greg Anderson: Looking ahead to 2025, we're anticipating delivery of 9 737 mass aircraft during the year.
Greg Anderson: While Boeing's recent estimates have 12 aircraft delivering to us during 2025, we're planning conservatively to keep a better balance of tight-rooted flight crews with aircraft available to operate, particularly through our summer peak.
Greg Anderson: We plan to retire 12 aircraft during this year, so we should close 2025 with a total of 122 aircraft in service, with some flight upside to that number.
Greg Anderson: As I've mentioned on prior calls, estimates today differ from contractual commitments. Should aircraft deliveries exceed our expectations this year, we are prepared to accelerate exit of A320 family aircraft once we have more visibility into 2026.
Greg Anderson: Based on these estimates, we're projecting all-in capital expenditures for 2025 to be approximately $515 million at the midpoint of our guidance.
Greg Anderson: including approximately $300 million in aircraft and engine related capex, $125 million in airline other capital expenditures, and $90 million in deferred heavy maintenance.
Greg Anderson: This guidance of course is subject to change depending on the timing of aircraft deliveries.
Greg Anderson: Turning to our 2025 outlook, we're providing full-year expectations for the airline segment, and based on uncertainty around timing and potential outcomes for SmokeSeeker, we'll continue to guide that segment on a quarterly basis.
Greg Anderson: That said, we expect to deliver full year 2025 airline earnings per share of $9, a significant improvement over 2024.
Greg Anderson: In the first quarter, the airline is expected to produce an airline-only operating margin of around 9.5%, more than three points higher than the prior year.
Greg Anderson: This result implied a non-fuel unit cost reduction of around 7% year-over-year on capacity growth of 13.5%.
Greg Anderson: as we're better able to leverage our existing infrastructure, assets, and staffing. We're growing into our headcount, as well as our fleet, and we expect to deliver airline-only earnings per share of $2.25 in the quarter.
Greg Anderson: We're expecting Sunseeker to produce $2 million in EBITDA during the first quarter. Due to the recent impairment charge, depreciation expense is now expected at $3 million per quarter. These results, combined with the airline, should produce a first quarter consolidated earnings per share of $2.
Greg Anderson: As we move through the year, we remain focused on cost discipline, improving efficiency through increased utilization, operational excellence, and continued balance sheet improvement.
Greg Anderson: The momentum we've built exiting 2024 puts us in a strong position for 2025 and beyond.
Greg Anderson: In closing, I'd like to express my gratitude to the entire Allegiant team. Their dedication and hard work continue to drive our performance and I'm extremely proud of what we've accomplished in the fourth quarter.
Greg Anderson: The increase in December capacity was completed with two fewer aircraft and a 9% reduction in overhead headcount over the holiday peak and the team still delivered strong operational performance.
This ability to increase fecalization
is core to our margin restoration efforts.
Greg Anderson: Thank you all for your time today. And with that, Rebecca, we can now go to analyst questions.
Thank you very much.
Speaker Change: At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for a moment to compile the Q&A roster.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Your first question comes from the line of Savvy Sath with Raymond James.
Savvy Sath: Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Drew, if I might, you gave some really interesting, helpful information on the capacity growth, but
Savvy Sath: It was a lot to digest and just wondering if you could maybe take a step back and help us think of it just maybe across the quarters.
Savvy Sath: how you're thinking about the progression of the capacity growth for the four quarters and which quarters might have more capacity growth in peak versus off-peak, period.
Savvy Sath: Sure, let me take a quick stab at that. So yeah, we got it out the first quarter, approximately 14%.
Savvy Sath: For that, the second and third quarter is likely about the same coming into the low 20s, and then we'll certainly see the lowest year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter, in large part because of everything we talked about here in December of 24, not getting to lapse.
They're not getting the same evaluation comp there.
Savvy Sath: In terms of the overall growth profile, you know, I talked about.
Savvy Sath: The peak months, March, June, and July, will be about a third of the overall growth, but the bigger focus on the net ASM increase will be the shoulder month.
February, April, May.
Savvy Sath: August, October, getting the more of the overall listen, but the balance will take place in January and September.
Savvy Sath: So I don't know if I went too high level for you there, or where you'd like me to dive in.
Greg Anderson: This is Greg. Just wanted to add maybe another perspective to 25.
Speaker Change: The way we've been talking about it here internally, in a lot of ways, it's like a one-time catch-up year, kind of a level setting, and that's due to some of the prior year delivery delays or other constraints that we've seen. And so what we're really trying to do in 25 is optimize
Speaker Change: You know, that existing infrastructure that's in place grow with roughly the same FTE count, maybe slightly up, roughly, or a flat aircraft count.
Speaker Change: and then drive higher absolute earnings. I would think of 25 more as an anomaly when it comes to growth. As we think about 26 and beyond, we'd get back to a different formula than 25 and really earning that right to grow.
Speaker Change: That's a helpful perspective. I appreciate it. And maybe just on the follow-up, on the unit cost, I'm just curious how we should think about it. Because given your guide and unit revenue, I mean, it looks like there's a lot of kind of unit cost improvement here. Is that also kind of fair to assume, like, more first-half weighted?
Speaker Change: and kind of moderates as you go to the back half and generally how we should think about that.
BJ: Yeah, I think that's right. Hey, Salvi, it's BJ. I think that's right. You know, 1Q will probably be down the most on a year-over-year basis. 2Q, 3Q,
BJ: still be down. Really nice cost improvement in the middle of the year, but you do have some of the Boeing aircraft entering the fleet in the middle of the year.
BJ: You have the increased utilization means that we're also utilizing the A319s a little bit more. So you don't see quite the same year-over-year unit cost improvement in 2Q and 3Q. And then 4Q, similar to Drew's answer, just we had a good amount of growth in 4Q.
BJ: of 24, and then we also had that gain on engine sales in the fourth quarter.
Helpful, thank you.
Thank you. Bye.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Duane Fithingworth with Evercore ISI.
Thank you.
Hey, thanks. Just on the... Okay.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: The debt that you're paying down related to Sunseeker, can you talk a little bit about how you're accomplishing that? What financing you're using to kind of take down that debt and how to think about the rate on what you're taking on versus the debt that you're taking out?
Speaker Change: and I guess just like why you thought this was important to do now. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Sure. Yeah, hey Dwayne, it's BJ. A couple of things there. I mean, one, the debt on Sunseeker was beginning to amortize just after the end of the quarter, I think beginning in April, and given the cash flow production of that asset, it was something that we wanted to get ahead of. You know, in addition, we've been very focused on balance sheet improvement, really beginning in the back half of 2024 when we started to realize sort of what our level of opportunity was.
Speaker Change: operations is going to be on the airline side in the back half of 24 and through.
Speaker Change: 25, and so one of the first places to go when we're trying to get leverage in the right place.
was paying off debt that was maturing earliest.
Speaker Change: And then we've also had this strategic review going on, and we've been learning a lot along the way, and we thought it would be best to have maximum flexibility there. So that's really the reason. And then how we did that, I mentioned we had proceeds from sale of fleet equipment during the fourth quarter.
Speaker Change: improved earnings. We had a loan out to another entity that was repaid to us and so just overall the balance sheet improvement didn't come from you know net net refi of that debt.
Okay and then I guess
Speaker Change: Hard to comment while this is going on, but I guess if everything went right, when would you think you'd be able to kind of separate yourself?
Speaker Change: from this asset and any, and again, I guess, any color from the quote-unquote interested parties, do you think we'll need to see, you know, quarters or years for this to kind of spool up before there's separation? Thanks for taking the questions.
Duane Fithingworth: Yeah, of course, Duane. Thanks for the question. Maybe let me hit on it a little bit.
more, and that's it.
Duane Fithingworth: You know, what we've talked about in the past that we're focused on the parallel paths, and those paths are, we need to improve the existing resort, and the team has done that. You see the EBITDA positive in the first quarter, the driving group business, and doing a lot of things to improve the financial performance.
Duane Fithingworth: And then the second two items that we've been looking at is the distribution partner or soft brand and then a capital partner.
Duane Fithingworth: And I mention that because as we've gone through the process with our experienced advisors, what we're learning is that, or what we've learned, that investors want a seat at the table to determine who that distribution partner is or that flag.
Duane Fithingworth: the Marriott, the Hiltons, and the likes and so all of those potential flags are distribution partners have toured the property. They're very positive on it and then in terms of the next steps
Duane Fithingworth: We're in a competitive process. I appreciate you respecting that on the call and your comments. It's kind of hard to talk about, but I'll try and give you...
Duane Fithingworth: a little bit as high a level as I think we can hit. And that's that, you know, there's high single-digit number of investors. These are, you know, well-known, high-quality investors. The indications of interest
Duane Fithingworth: that they've provided, they're promising, we're advancing the process. There's no two structures that are exactly alike.
Duane Fithingworth: But what we're pushing, what we're working towards is, you know, at least we sell, at the minimum we sell a majority ownership.
Duane Fithingworth: and our advisors who we're working with. It's our goal is to drive as much value to our shareholders as we possibly can.
Duane Fithingworth: More to come, but as I mentioned in the early or my opening remarks that we would expect the transaction buttoned up by this summer and if all went well it could be you know early summer but we're just we're really working through the process and trying to get to the right deal.
Well, that's great, Greg. Thanks for the info.
Tom Fitzgerald: Your next question comes from the line of Tom Fitzgerald with T.D. Cohen.
Tom Fitzgerald: Hi everyone, thanks so much for the time. Just curious how Spring Break's booking up across all your products but as well as on the Legion Extra?
Tom Fitzgerald: Sure, yeah, I may not have, you know, legion extra details off the top of my head in advance, but, you know, very generally there's kind of a couple different pieces of March specific to the spring break, so Easter shifting out will put a pretty big headwind on the final week. Remember, well over a third, even as much as 40% of our spring breaks had coalesced around that week last year, and
Tom Fitzgerald: you know, being a bit compressed on capacity, we certainly couldn't take full advantage of that.
Tom Fitzgerald: So, that week will look relatively poor on a year-over-year basis. Additionally, the first week of March tends to get a little softer with Easter pushing back as well. The middle two that are more...
Tom Fitzgerald: Apples look great. I think we have some solid slack capacity, market strength there, and then we'll see how all the growth markets handle it.
Tom Fitzgerald: So far, pleased with how the middle of March is looking, a bit early to talk to April, but obviously with Easter moving out there, that's going to look really good on any year-over-year basis. So, you know, feel good about the peak period.
Speaker Change: Okay, that's really helpful. And just as a follow-up, I think on the last call, Dwayne had asked about how you're merchandising Allegiant Xtra. And you talked about it as an ancillary versus a distinct fair product. And one of your competitors recently moved to start retailing their Xtra legroom seat as its own distinct fair class. I'm just kind of curious how you view the pros and cons of those two strategies, and if you'd ever consider changing how you retail it. Thanks again for the time.
Speaker Change: Yeah, I mean, it's almost like you're in some of our revenue strategy meetings where we've discussed this for the better part of a couple quarters now. You know, there's, you know, there's some tax implications depending on how you want to position it. As I understand it, anything that moves into the same clique as the fares, everything is subject to the 7.5% excise tax.
Speaker Change: by keeping them separated. The premium seat would still keep that seven and a half percent, but other pieces of the product or that bundle would not.
Speaker Change: in a distinct offering from the FAIR classes, but there's a few other kind of back-end.
Speaker Change: complications that are more allegiance centric than anything that would make bundling it together up front a little bit more challenging.
Speaker Change: So, I don't have necessarily a very clear answer for which is going to be better. We will continue to debate this for a while.
Speaker Change: But for the foreseeable future, we like where we're at, we like having it separated. I feel like it's the best overall thing for the consumer experience, but to be determined.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.
Mike Linenberg: Oh yeah, hey, good afternoon. Just back on Sunseeker, seeing it turn to EBIDAP positive, can you just remind us of the seasonality of the resort? What is typically the strongest quarters for Sunseeker?
Thank you.
Mike Linenberg: Hey Mike, it's Greg. Let me hit it at a high level. Mike is on if I misspeak or if there's any detail he wants to add. But typically the first quarter is the strongest quarter, the fourth quarter being probably the second strongest, and then the summer would be the softest period. Okay. Is that right?
Absolutely.
Speaker Change: Great, thanks. And then, just, BJ, I heard you mention, you talked about, I think it was $20 million in pilot bonus accrual. Can you...
Speaker Change: Where are we now? Like, how much have you accrued? Because I know it's been going on for some time, and as we move into 2025...
Speaker Change: How does that change as you add more airplanes and grow your pilot ranks? What number should we think per quarter?
Speaker Change: Sure, Mike. Yeah, thanks for the question. We were just under $140 million, I believe, at the end of 2024, and it was building right around $20 million, $20 million a quarter. For 2025, I have it coming up by about $22.5 million a quarter.
Perfect. Thanks for taking my questions. Thanks, Mike.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Dan McKenzie with Seaport Global.
Speaker Change: Oh, hi guys. Thanks for the time here. It looks like the sale of Sunseeker will swing cash nicely positive this year.
Speaker Change: And, you know, I know you can't talk a whole lot about it, so I'm not sure how it would be recorded exactly, but could you speak to the potential use of cash and the implications for year-end debt and leverage metrics?
Speaker Change: Hey Dan, thanks for the question. I'm glad you asked that. I should mention that my prepared comments around deleveraging throughout the year did not include any assumptions on cash proceeds from Sunseeker transactions. That was just based on airline earnings.
Speaker Change: So we haven't, you know, look, I mean, we're still exploring and it could be there could be many different ways that a transaction would be structured. So I'm, I'm hesitant to run away with anything. But I would tell you, you know, our primary focus is just on continued improvement of our balance sheet. So maybe we'll pay cash for the airplanes, maybe we'll pay down some debt.
Speaker Change: I know what you're probably looking for, I don't think we'd be committing to any kind of shareholder returns with those proceeds, but we can have that discussion when we get there. You know, opportunistically, I think we do have.
Speaker Change: $70 plus million in authority on Sherry purchases if we wanted to look at that.
Hmm, yeah, okay.
Speaker Change: I'm wondering if you could speak to the overlap that you would have with Spirit, and I'm, you know, just wondering...
Speaker Change: You know, is M&A, you know, something that's even on the, you know, on the radar for you or strategically, you know, does some kind of, you know, would some kind of acquisition or, you know, bolt-on acquisition at some point appeal to you guys?
Speaker Change: Yeah, I'll kick it off with the overlap. It's relatively thin. I want to say approximately 4%, give or take. I haven't rerun it since the schedule was extended recently, but I can't imagine we've deviated far from that.
Speaker Change: Hey Dan, I'll add on the deconsolidation question and you know I think just
Speaker Change: underperformance. If that continues for like other carriers maybe that could result and we'll see they'll do what is best for them but specifically
to Allegiant around consolidation.
Speaker Change: And our view is that consolidation, really, it isn't necessary for us. We have great assets.
We have the right network.
Speaker Change: We have room for organic growth through this team. They talk about the 1400 incremental routes. Now, as I mentioned earlier, we need to earn that right to grow, but our focus is really on driving shareholder value. And that's what we've really worked towards 24, 25, and continue on in future years. So that's where our focus is at, right Tom?
Speaker Change: Yeah, of course. And if I could squeeze one last one in here, you know, for investors that are taking a two to three year horizon, you know, how can, you know, just given the sharp expansion in margins in 2025, how should, you know, longer term investors think about normalized margins for Allegiant at this point?
Thank you.
Speaker Change: How about I'll kick it off and feel free Drew or BJ to jump in.
Speaker Change: being a different kind of growth formula. You know, all else equal, if the environment were equal, I would expect 26 margins to be higher than 25.
Speaker Change: And, you know, as we think about how we look beyond that as well, our focus is getting back to historical margins with what we've seen. We have a plan to do that, but we need to continue to execute. Some examples that, you know, may be worth highlighting why we have conviction that, again, all else being equal, 26,
margins stronger than 25.
Speaker Change: is, you know, we still think there's upside with productivity, internally here, how do we keep becoming more productive, growing productively?
Speaker Change: From the commercial standpoint, you know, we talked about some of the enhancements that we've been working through.
Speaker Change: In terms of like Legion Extra or Navitaire, you know, by the end of this year coming into 26, those will largely be in full swing. Drew and his team have a number of other commercial initiatives, you know, that we think could be beneficial. The network maturation, you know, that too should help drive less growth next year, which we expect would help drive margins.
Speaker Change: All in all, our goal is to get back to historic margins, and I think we're heading in the right direction, and so hopefully stay tuned, and we'll continue to execute on our plan.
Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolf Research.
Scott Group: The guidance is airline RASM down more than 6% in the first quarter and I get that there's timing issues and EASTER and all that but now that's a pretty big step down from from the down 1% in Q4. So I guess any color there and then what's assumed in the guidance the rest of the year? So it's like capacity goes from 14% to 20% in Q2, Q3.
Scott Group: Does RASM get better than the DOWN-6 or does it get worse? I'm not really sure what's in the guide.
Scott Group: Sure and you know maybe well first talking 4Q to 1Q, South to Easter is a pretty big headwind on that front but additionally if you look at the growth a little bit
Scott Group: There was very little to no growth, really, in October, November, and the vast majority of the December growth came from the fall.
Scott Group: You know, the back end of Thanksgiving falling into early December as well as concentrated around the holiday itself. So it's really, really productive growth there that won't quite realize the same way in January, February, and even early March in particular. So the way in which the growth is manifesting and how we see that.
Scott Group: I guess, play out in revenue will look probably meaningfully different than how it did in December.
Scott Group: Looking, I guess, broader through the year, I do expect that because of Easter falling into the second quarter, because of some of the backdrop changes in the summer,
that affected the entire industry last year and at least...
Scott Group: to date, look to be more constructive in 25. I think they should look a little bit better, probably similar to one another, but a little bit better than the first quarter. And then with growth kind of tapering off in the fourth quarter, I would expect probably the best performance on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter.
and Scott DeAngelo. Thank you. Thank you.
Scott Group: So, I guess when you add it all up, right, if...
Cheers.
Rasmus. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Down more than CHASM this year or is CHASM down more than RASM this year?
Chasm is down more than rasm.
See you. Have a good one. Thanks a lot.
program.
Speaker Change: Does that make sense? I mean what I'm saying is it's accretive that the costs will come down more than the revenue side of the house. Is that what you're getting at, Scott? Yeah, I mean ultimately I guess you're saying Q1 Chasm's down seven, Razum's down six. You're saying Chasm's going to be down less than seven the rest of the year?
Speaker Change: Right, so I guess you need, RASM's got to be better than down six.
Speaker Change: the rest of the year for that to be true. But that's sort of what's in there. I just want to understand what's in the guide.
Speaker Change: Yeah, and Scott, I think you know it's just important to the nuance there. You know, you're asking about chasm, so both ChasmX and Chasm should be down and just keep in mind the benefit as we get, you know, more and more of these max airplanes into the fleet on total chasm in the back half of the year.
Thank you very much.
Speaker Change: Okay, and then just last thing really quick, the engine gain in Q4, do we assume any additional engine gains as some of the new planes come in? Are there any other engine gains assumed in the guide?
There are some in the guide for.
2025.
Speaker Change: Pretty minor. Nothing as meaningful as what we had in 4Q. That's why we called it out. Just remind you that, you know, we've kind of always had disposition of scrap assets run through our other expense lines. Sometimes it's a gain, sometimes it's a loss. In 2024, it was lumpy, actually. We had a couple of quarters with gains on, it could be parts, landing gears, unserviceable engines, things like that. So I am assuming a little bit of that in 2024. But, you know, it'll be lumpy quarters.
Speaker Change: I don't know that we'll give a lot of clarity on it.
Speaker Change: Scott, maybe just at a high level it's worth adding, you know, that there's there's value in the order we view it with Boeing for our new MAX. We have a value in our existing fleet assets which we own.
Speaker Change: As we look out at BJ and his team, how productive we are with those assets, how do we optimize that value in work?
Speaker Change: You know, we're well positioned and experienced not only as a commercial airline, but also in monetizing aircraft assets over the value of their life cycle, and so that's just what the team's doing. They're finding less productive assets and monetizing it in this unique market.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Greg. And Scott, maybe just one more thing I should add in, you know, I mentioned in my script that, you know, there is potential for Boeing to deliver more aircraft than we have in the plan. If that happens, and it happens early enough, and we feel like that delivery schedule is reliable, then, you know, maybe we change our position on that, like in the fourth quarter or something.
We've disposed of airbus assets more quickly.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Schnackner with Morgan Stanley.
Ravi Schnackner: Great thanks, good evening guys. So maybe as a follow-up to some of the questions here, great to see the traction with the Legion Xtra and getting to 70% of the planes at the end of the year, but can you just help unpack how you guys...
kind of just ideated the...between the strategies of...
growing to higher margins.
Speaker Change: through higher through more capacity versus trying to push to higher margins through less capacity and more price because it feels like the industry is going one way and you guys may be going a different way and I'm not saying that's the wrong thing to do because you guys are your own have your own strategy but just how do you come to that conclusion?
Speaker Change: I think we're guilty of that since probably the start of 2020. It feels like we've grown when no one else is, and we've gotten the unit revenue when everyone else is growing. It's been hard to tell that story for the last five years, so why would we stop now?
Speaker Change: The core of this to me, and then maybe I'll hand it off, is really about growing into the infrastructure we have. The marginal cost...
Speaker Change: that we add into the business through this flying is relatively low relative to what we believe we can achieve on the revenue side. So, you know, to me, this has really been about driving earnings and then harvesting the margin in the coming years, as Greg mentioned a little bit ago, as we get back to earning that right to grow. But by and large, we have the pieces in place to achieve this growth without having to add much on the foundational front.
Speaker Change: Got it, that's really helpful. And maybe as a follow-up, just for the Sunseeker timing, you said, I think, late summer. How firm is that deadline and, you know, what are maybe some of the moving pieces in terms of the process that, you know, will enable you to either hit or maybe even advance that deadline?
Speaker Change: Yeah, the, you know, we just put it by summer, so it's kind of a little wider range.
Speaker Change: If we were to, everything were to go as planned, it could be on, you know, the early part of the summer.
Speaker Change: Robby, but we're just trying to give some buffer there and really take the right time that is needed to get to the right deal and structure.
Speaker Change: And so we're just, we're working through that, we're, you know, there's steps along the way, the process, and so we're in a more advanced step now than we were, you know, a month ago, meaning we've kind of narrowed it down and really focusing on advanced due diligence and discussions with software and things like that. So, you know, we're working through it as expeditiously as we can, but so we're just, we're putting that out there, the best information we have today is when we think we'll conclude this transaction.
Very good. Thank you.
Thanks for having me. Bye.
Speaker Change: Your next question comes to the line of Connor Cunningham with Mellis Research.
Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Everyone, just going back to the cost outlook here, it's a little confusing. So in the past, I think you've talked about
Speaker Change: have an infrastructure in place to grow 15%. And then you've also said that if you grow five,
Speaker Change: your Chasm X is basically gonna be flat. So I'm just trying to understand in the context of 17% growth, why the best quarter on Chasm X is gonna be one Q.
Speaker Change: when you're going to have 20% growth. Is there anything that we're missing from, I don't know if there's like labor assumptions, anything just within it that we need to know about on the cost side that may be throwing off that a little bit? Thank you.
Speaker Change: Thanks, Connor. Yeah, let me let me try that. So first quarter.
But the first quarter, remember, you have
Or sorry, I should get to second quarter.
Speaker Change: I mentioned, I think, in response to another question on the call,
Speaker Change: There was some lumpiness in the other line. Some of that was related to asset and part sales from parting out A320 family equipment. So that has some impact. And then you have more utilization on smaller aircraft and seats coming off of.
A320s for Legion Xtra in 2Q and 3Q.
Speaker Change: Then you start to add some depreciation expense back into the business in the third quarter.
What am I missing, guys?
Speaker Change: Yeah, and then of course the engine sale in the fourth quarter, so you don't really get much of a year-over-year benefit in the fourth quarter.
Drew Wells: Okay, maybe I can ask it a little bit different. Drew, just like...
Speaker Change: Again, we're pushing capacity again. I know that you guys have been very clear about that, but just as you build a schedule in the current environment, you know, obviously, there's been a big debate around, you know, ultra low cost carriers and the model and all that stuff. But just have you changed your approach at all to building a schedule when you think about pushing growth now in the context of what you're seeing out there? Thank you.
Speaker Change: No, I mean, by and large, it's the same approach, right, through the peak periods, you're trying to schedule up to whatever your first operational constraint is. Historically, in the summer, that's been our pilot headcount.
Speaker Change: Today, I think we're a little more balanced on that front and filling up our peak days until the aircraft space.
Speaker Change: runs out. But you know, one of the innovative things that we continue to bring to the industry is our ability to schedule it two and three times a week. And as constraints allow, we push a number of those markets up to three and four to see where they can go.
Speaker Change: Outside of the peaks, we're still using a demand and fuel bake-off to ensure we're doing the right level of flying, and we probably changed our margin threshold targets a little bit in terms of what we're willing to deploy as we're focused more on the dollars than the margin in 25.
Speaker Change: But I think, by and large, it's the same general process with just some minor tweaks.
Speaker Change: Hey Connor, if I can just come back in on the cost question now that I've had a little bit of help from the team here. Just a couple things maybe to add in. When you think about 1Q24, we had a bit of elevated cost related, pre-related cost. This is
Speaker Change: crew related travel and and and crews offline for training for the the Boeing aircraft and that relieves a little bit in the first quarter of 25 and so you don't see as much pressure there and then just remember we didn't have the flight attendant deal in first quarter of 24.
Right. Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Thank you. Bye.
Speaker Change: Again, if you would like to ask a question, press star 1 on your telephone keypad and your next question comes from the line of Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs.
Speaker Change: Hey, this is Jack Ewell on for Katie. Thanks for taking our questions. Just to dig in a little more on the 1Q margin expansion, you got Rasm down 6%, Kazem down 7%. Is this more about increasing efficiency to drive better margin, or would you also call it the revenue backdrop as a driver? All else equal, would you expect Rasm to be worse at that level of growth in Easter shift? Maybe you could speak to the same sort of sales. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Yeah, thanks, Jack. I think, you know, the piece in all that that's also helpful, right, fuel is down a modest amount on a year over year, which will help, but also is a headwind towards revenue production at the same time.
Speaker Change: So, you know, I talked a little bit about flat capacity or same store performance over the spring break. I might, you know, stop short of doing that at any greater detail.
Yeah, I think the...
Speaker Change: Maybe just through the quarter, getting the New Year's travel benefit into January will serve as a positive, similar to some commentary we heard this morning. I think February will be a little bit softer than we otherwise would have anticipated with the growth.
Speaker Change: But I think the spring break period looks pretty good when considering the Easter shift impact that's expected.
Speaker Change: I don't know if I ran around your question too much there, but I think not entirely out of line in total with maybe a little bit of extra softness in February than I would have anticipated.
Speaker Change: That makes a lot of sense and super helpful and just as a quick follow-up.
Speaker Change: on Sunseeker, this year the Business Drove, well 2024 the Business Drove.
Speaker Change: $3 EPS degradation understood during discussions to sell at least a majority stake now and therefore not given
Speaker Change: And if Sunseeker is still a wholly owned property for 2Q, understand it's a tougher seasonal quarter. Are there other factors that could drive some EBITDAR momentum despite that seasonality?
Thank you.
Hey Jack, it's me, Dale. I'll start. I would say...
Speaker Change: So, on a four-year basis, no, we wouldn't expect Sunseeker to be as much of an EPS drag.
Speaker Change: as it was in in 2024. I will tell you we're still working through interest expense allocation to that segment. There's the actual loan on the property is paid off, but we may need to allocate some of the travel company, the consolidated interest expense to that segment. So.
Speaker Change: still need to look at that. And then the EBITDA improvement is really nice to see in the first quarter. We see that really throughout the year, but you know, not as pronounced in 2Q and 3Q.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Your final question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz.
Speaker Change: This is Akul Maheswarian for Tom Waterbridge. Thanks a lot for taking our question. Granted it's a fluid situation, but if fuel prices were to move materially higher from here, either due to tariffs or otherwise?
Speaker Change: But that begins to put pressure on your capacity plans for aircraft utilization. And what levers do you have that you can pull to simulate your guidance?
Speaker Change: Just to make sure I understood the question, if fuel were to spike meaningfully, how would that impact capacity and what levers do we have to pull to combat it?
Exactly. That's the question.
Speaker Change: I think depending on how rapid the rise looks, we'd be pulling capacity out of our shoulder in off-peak periods relatively quickly.
Speaker Change: I guess the level of booking there, we tend to be about three months out to action that. We're going to put customers first if our flights are meaningfully sold, even if it would put us in an advantageous position.
Speaker Change: And, you know, just natural economics should take place after that as you restrict supply. The fare should rise a little bit to help offset the cost of the fuel there. We would have to take a deeper look at some of the peak periods. Historically, demand has been sufficient to offset largely any fuel price in the peakest of periods.
Speaker Change: So that would purely depend on the magnitude of that rise.
Speaker Change: as well as the, I guess, economic response to it from a demand perspective.
Speaker Change: And maybe just, not that it's directly related to this, but with more Boeing coming online too, that does make us more resilient to whatever spikes in fuel may occur, just provides a slightly easier hurdle rate on that front.
Speaker Change: Yeah, it's cool. It was a little bit hard for me to hear your question, but just to add to Drew's last comment there, you know, I think we would look at Drew and the commercial team, try to see as much flying as possible on the fuel-efficient MAX aircraft. And then, you know, perhaps that even opens up opportunity for some early exits on the A320.
Speaker Change: And maybe the final piece here, because utilization is rising, it will put pressure on our six-feet team to be able to deliver at the same levels in 25 they did in 24. Your scenario would play really well to be able to get into the six-feet space more earnestly and try to backfill some of the lost scheduled service capacity where it will be a pass-through.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker Change: Okay, great. That was very helpful. And then just quickly on the unit cost versus unit revenue dynamic.
Speaker Change: So chasm down more than rhasm, is that going to be the case in each quarter of the year? Or is there certain quarters where that spread is going to be a lot higher than others?
Speaker Change: Yeah, that might be a bit far in the weeds for where we're going to go here. I think we've given some pretty good direction on that for the year as a whole, as well as, you know, directionality for each of the two items. You know, we feel really good about our position. We have leverage to pull if things don't manifest as we see it today, but yeah, maybe we won't go to quite that far.
Speaker Change: I will now turn the call back over to Sherry Wilson for closing remarks.
Sherry Wilson: Thank you everyone for joining today's call. Please feel free to reach out with any questions. Otherwise, we will see you next quarter.
Sherry Wilson: Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.