Q3 2025 MPLX LP Earnings Call
Speaker #1: Welcome to the MPLX third Quarter 2020 earnings call . My name is Shirley and I'll be your operator for today's call . At this time , all participants are in a listen only mode .
Speaker #1: Later , we will conduct a question and answer session . Press star one on your touchtone phone to enter the queue . Please note that this conference is being recorded .
Speaker #1: I will now turn the call over to Kristina Kazarian . Kristina . You may begin .
Speaker #2: Thank you . Shirley . Welcome to MPLX third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference call . The slides that accompany this call can be found on our website at MPLX .
Speaker #2: Under the investor tab . Joining me on the call today are Maryann Mannen president and CEO Chris Hagedorn , CFO and other members of the executive team .
Speaker #2: We invite you to read the Safe Harbor statement on slide two . We will be making forward looking statements today . Actual results may differ .
Speaker #2: Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included there , as well as our filings with the SEC . With that , I'll turn the call over to Marianne .
Speaker #2: Thanks , Kristina . Good morning , and thank .
Speaker #3: You for joining our call . I'd like to take a moment to recognize Mike Hennigan at the end of the year , Mike will be stepping down as our executive chairman .
Speaker #3: Mike's guidance has been tremendously valuable to our board, to me, and our entire leadership team. We thank him for his service, as well as all of his contributions.
Speaker #3: He will be missed delivering on our commitment to return capital MPLX increased its quarterly distribution by 12.5% for the second consecutive year . The increase is supported by our multi-year track record of mid-single digit growth and reflects conviction in our growth outlook from recent capital deployment .
Speaker #3: Our growing portfolio is expected to support this level of annual distribution increases over the next couple of years . In the third quarter , MPLX generated adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion .
Speaker #3: Strong performance through the first nine months has contributed to year to date adjusted EBITDA of $5.2 billion , reflecting growth of 4% over the same time frame in the prior year .
Speaker #3: Distributable cash flows of $1.5 billion , which supported the return of $1.1 billion to unitholders . We are committed to returning capital to unitholders primarily through a secure and growing distribution , but also through unit repurchases .
Speaker #3: As we believe our equity remains undervalued, MPL is optimizing the competitive position of its portfolio as we pursue mid-single digit adjusted EBITDA growth anchored in the Marcellus and Permian basins. Advancing our strategic commitments during the third quarter, MPL closed on two strategic acquisitions.
Speaker #3: First , the remaining 55% interest in the Bengal NGL pipeline system , full ownership of Bengal and its expansion opportunities enhance our Permian platform as we connect .
Speaker #3: Growing NGL production from the wellhead to MPL Gulf Coast fractionation facilities and export terminal joint venture . Currently under construction , we are progressing the expansion of Bengal from 250 to 300,000 barrels per day , which we expect to enter service in the second half of 2026 .
Speaker #3: Second MPL closed on the acquisition of a Delaware Basin sour gas treating business , integrating our newly acquired sour gas treating assets with MPL operations is ongoing .
Speaker #3: Additionally , we are completing construction of the second amine treating plant at the Titan complex . This will increase our gas treating capacity from 150 to over 400,000,000 cubic feet per day , expected by the end of 2026 .
Speaker #3: Driving the returns we expect from the acquisition and expansion . The sour gas treating capabilities will allow us to capitalize on additional growth opportunities .
Speaker #3: These sour gas treating assets are adjacent and complementary to our existing natural gas system in the Delaware Basin . They expand MPL treating and blending operations attractive to our current and new customers who are increasing crude drilling activity in the lower cost .
Speaker #3: Sour gas window on the eastern edge of the northern Delaware Basin and the assets increase access to natural gas and NGL volumes . We are advancing our strategic growth objectives in the Permian Secretariat , our seventh processing plant is expected to be online at the end of 2025 , bringing total regional capacity to one point 4,000,000,000 cubic feet per day .
Speaker #3: And we fully own the pipeline system integral to MPL Permian NGL chain , which is expected to add incremental EBITDA in 2026 . Construction is progressing on schedule and on budget for the first Gulf Coast fractionation facility , and LPG export terminal .
Speaker #3: The location of our LPG dock is advantage as it will allow vessels to avoid congestion and reduce fuel consumption , lowering costs for shippers .
Speaker #3: MPL will not have a direct commodity price exposure as MPC will purchase the LPG production from the Fracs and mark it globally through its marketing business across the new export terminal , demonstrating the strength of our strategic relationship with MPC .
Speaker #3: The first frac export terminal and purity pipeline are expected to enter service in 2028 , with full run rate in late 2029 . Within natural gas , MPL and its partners announced they will construct the Eiger Express pipeline , having secured firm transportation agreements with investment grade shippers .
Speaker #3: Upon completion , expected in mid 2028 , the pipeline will transport natural gas from the Permian Basin to the Katy area of Texas .
Speaker #3: Eiger will have connectivity to the traverse natural gas pipeline , which connects supply between Agua Dulce and the Houston area and will provide shippers optionality and access to multiple premium markets on the Gulf Coast .
Speaker #3: Driven by demand pool for LNG exports . The continued buildout of our Permian to Gulf Coast natural gas system enhances that value chain with additional growth opportunities , favorable market outlook supports our operations in the Marcellus , Utica , and Permian basins .
Speaker #3: MPLX position for long term natural gas volume growth and these key operating regions , and we expand our integrated value chains and execute our wellhead to water strategy .
Speaker #3: This year , over 90% of MPLX total investments are being allocated to opportunities within our natural gas and NGL services segment . The progress in execution of our strategic commitments give us conviction in the sustainability of our mid-single digit adjusted EBITDA growth outlook for 2025 and beyond .
Speaker #3: Our approach to growth is structured to deliver mid-teens returns on our investments and mid-single digit adjusted EBITDA growth . We do this by constructing , processing facilities on a just in time basis , maximizing the utilization of existing assets , optimizing value chains , and strengthening our strategic partnership with MPC in the Marcellus , our largest operating region , construction of our Harmon Creek three processing plant and fractionation facility aligns with producer drilling plans .
Speaker #3: This new complex will feature a 300,000,000 cubic feet per day gas processing plant and a 40,000 barrel per day supported by producer commitments .
Speaker #3: In the second half of 2026 , we anticipate our gas processing capacity in the northeast will reach eight point 1,000,000,000 cubic feet per day , and fractionation capacity will reach 800,000 barrels per day , positioning MPL to handle growing production from the Utica and Marcellus as demand for natural gas powered electricity rises , MPL is well positioned to support the development plans of its producer customers in our crude oil and product logistics segment , we are focused on expanding , gathering infrastructure , enhancing butane blending and terminals , growing volumes organically and pursuing high return projects to maximize asset utilization .
Speaker #3: With a strong pipeline of organic opportunities , we are well positioned to generate resilient cash flows that underpins our commitment to deliver long term value and return to capital to unitholders .
Speaker #3: Now , let me turn the call over to Chris to discuss our operational and financial results for the quarter . Thanks .
Speaker #2: Marianne .
Speaker #4: Slide 12 outlines the third quarter operational and financial performance highlights for our crude oil and products logistics segment . Segment . Adjusted EBITDA increased $43 million when compared to the third quarter of 2020 .
Speaker #4: For the increase was driven by higher rates , partially offset by higher operating expenses . Pipeline volumes were flat , while terminal volumes were down 3% year over year .
Speaker #4: Moving to our natural gas and NGL services segment on slide 13 , segment adjusted EBITDA increased $9 million compared to the third quarter of 2020 .
Speaker #4: Four as contributions from recently acquired assets and higher volumes were partially offset by higher operating expenses . Gathered volumes increased 3% year over year , primarily due to production growth in the Utica processing volumes increased 3% year over year , primarily from increased production in the Utica and Marcellus Permian processing volumes increased 9% compared to the second quarter of this year .
Speaker #4: Processing volumes in the Utica have increased 24% year over year , showing the value of the liquids rich acreage . Marcellus processing utilization was 95% for the quarter , reflecting robust producer activity in the region .
Speaker #4: Total fractionation volumes increased 7% year over year , primarily due to higher ethane recoveries in the Marcellus and Utica . Moving to our third quarter financial highlights on slide 14 , adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion increased 3% from the prior year , while distributable cash flow of $1.5 billion increased 2% over the same time frame .
Speaker #4: MPLX returned nearly $1 billion to unitholders and distributions and $100 million in unit repurchases during the quarter . MPLX issued $4.5 billion in senior notes .
Speaker #4: The proceeds of which were primarily used to fund our acquisition of a Delaware Basin sour gas treating business and to increase cash from the Bengal acquisition and associated debt repayment.
Speaker #4: MPLX entered the quarter with a cash balance of $1.8 billion and plans to utilize this cash in alignment with our capital allocation framework .
Speaker #4: MPLX maintains a solid balance sheet, with leverage below our comfort level of four times. Now, let me hand it back to Marianne for some concluding thoughts.
Speaker #3: Thanks , Chris . Our distribution increase of 12.5% announced last week , marks the fourth consecutive year of double digit increases , resulting in annualized base distribution growth of greater than 50% over the past four years through prudent capital allocation cost control and operational optimization .
Speaker #3: MPL has achieved a 7% compound annual growth rate in both adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow over the past four years. Year to date, we've returned $3.2 billion to unitholders.
Speaker #3: As we've stated before, adjusted EBITDA growth at MPLX will not be linear. We anticipate growth in 2026 will exceed that of 2025, supported by throughput growth on existing assets and new assets being placed in service.
Speaker #3: Our growing portfolio is well positioned to sustain this level of annual distribution increases over the next couple of years , and we do not expect MPL coverage ratio to fall below 1.3 times .
Speaker #3: In summary , MPL is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities that fit our strategic roadmap as we execute our plan targeting mid-single digit adjusted EBITDA growth as a strategic asset for marathon .
Speaker #3: And with the distribution increase , MPL is expected to provide $2.8 billion annually to MPC through its growing distribution . Our unwavering focus on safety and operational excellence , strategic growth opportunities and strong financial flexibility enable us to consistently drive cash flow growth .
Speaker #3: This , in turn , supports our commitment to delivering peer leading capital returns to unitholders . Now , let me turn the call over to Christina .
Speaker #2: Thanks , Marianne . As we open the call for your questions as a courtesy to all participants , we ask that you limit yourself to a question and a follow up if time permits , we will reprompt for additional questions .
Speaker #2: Sheila , we're ready for questions . Please .
Speaker #1: Thank you . We will now begin the question and answer session . If you have a question , please press star . Then one on your touch tone phone .
Speaker #1: If you wish to be removed from the queue , please press star then two . If you're using a speakerphone , you may pick up the handset first before pressing the numbers .
Speaker #1: Once again , if you have a question , please press star . Then one on your touch tone phone . first question comes from John McKay with Goldman Sachs .
Speaker #1: Your line is open . You may ask your question .
Speaker #5: Hey , good morning everyone . Thank you for the time . I wanted to start on the EBITDA growth outlook . You guys have done a bunch of projects M&A this year .
Speaker #5: Marianne , I was wondering if you could kind of walk us through how you're thinking about the go forward growth outlook now for EBITDA , both kind of level and duration relative to how you were framing up kind
Speaker #5: the similar Our target of mid-single digit EBITDA growth at the beginning of the year . Before we had some of these announcements .
Speaker #3: Yeah . Thanks , John . Good morning and thanks for your question . So as I mentioned in my prepared remarks , when we look at our growth rate , 24 to 25 , and then we look at it also from 25 to 26 , we believe 25 to 26 will actually deliver stronger growth than we did 24 to 25 .
Speaker #3: As you know , we've also been talking about our EBITDA growth over a three year period . And when we look at that , it's been roughly 7% for the last few years .
Speaker #3: We see the ability to continue that as we look into 2026 . For right now , for those acquisitions and other projects that we put into place .
Speaker #3: So maybe let me take a minute and talk about how we see that unfolding . To address your question of how did we think about it in the beginning of the year ?
Speaker #3: Certainly , versus how we're looking at it now when we look at 2026 as an example , a couple of things really begin to come online and increase that growth that I was referring to .
Speaker #3: So as you know , we mentioned Bengal , the incremental 55% ownership will now be additive to 2026 EBITDA targets . As I mentioned , Secretariat will come online at the end of this year .
Speaker #3: And that ramp up into 2026 will again deliver incremental EBITDA throughout 2026 . We'll also have the full rate of Preakness . Two that comes came online in the third quarter of 24 .
Speaker #3: And so we'll have full ramp up as we head into 2026 . And then the sour gas investment that we made , as you know , will reach full run rate by the end of 2026 .
Speaker #3: As tightened up , the next phase of the Titan treatment plant comes online . So we'll see that incremental EBITDA coming from Titan as well .
Speaker #3: And then there's a few other projects , as you know , and then heading into 27 , we obviously have full rate for Titan consistent with the way that we've shared with you .
Speaker #3: As we talked about the EBITDA potential on that transaction . And then also Iger pipeline as an example , you know , another project that we just announced that will bring EBITDA into 2027 .
Speaker #3: I'll take you actually to 28 and 29 just for a moment . But in 28 we'll have the first frac in the LPG export dot come online .
Speaker #3: And then obviously heading into full run rate as the second one comes online in 29 as well . So those projects either organic or those acquisitions , I think supports our ability to continue to grow that mid-single digit growth .
Speaker #3: Let me pause there, John, and see if I've answered your question.
Speaker #5: No thank you . That was that was great . I appreciate appreciate the color . Maybe just as a as a second question from my side .
Speaker #5: Would love to hear a little bit more about the power . Loi maybe just steps to converting that . How we think about the opportunity set for you , returns , etc.
Speaker #5: .
Speaker #3: Yeah , thank you for that . As you saw , we we initiated issued that excuse me press release this morning and appreciated it is an Loi in this early stage one .
Speaker #3: We think the opportunity with merit is is important critically important for us as we evaluate the opportunity set around data centers and AI .
Speaker #3: We think for MPC , this obviously creates in-basin demand . And then ultimately at what we would consider to be a very low cost or no cost transaction here in this in this early evaluation , we will provide excuse me , we will provide gas and then in return we receive a lower cost , reliable power , which in fact will get passed on to our producer customers .
Speaker #3: But time wise , this is certainly not a 2026 project . It will be beyond 2026 . John .
Speaker #5: I appreciate the time . Thank .
Speaker #6: You .
Speaker #3: Thank you .
Speaker #6: Thank you .
Speaker #1: Thank you . Our next question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS . Your line is open . You may ask your question .
Speaker #7: I would like to start by saying I'm a big fan of Mike Hennigan , but he's left the company in very good hands .
Speaker #7: So congratulations , Marianne . My my first question to you is can you elaborate a little more on the Permian sour gas opportunity .
Speaker #7: And it's my understanding you do not need to permit more Aggie Wells to run this asset at full capacity, because that's where the gating factor is.
Speaker #7: If you could talk a little bit about those things.
Speaker #3: Thank you for your question . And and we agree with you as it relates to Mike Hennigan . So on the Permian sour gas opportunity , as we shared , we've got about a half $1 billion of incremental capital that gets us to all of the investment economics that we shared .
Speaker #3: That includes the getting the treatment , the amine treating Titan facility , as we call it , from 150 to 400 . And the next AGI .
Speaker #3: Well , there is no other incremental asset . Gas injection . Well necessary to meet the economics on the project . As we have outlined for you .
Speaker #3: So far .
Speaker #7: Perfect . My quick follow up here is , as you evaluate all these data center opportunities , would there be more letter of intent or similar nature ?
Speaker #7: And how are you seeing that pipeline ? And then the bigger question is some of your peers have said this opportunity set is so big that we are even open to generating and selling electricity using our natural gas .
Speaker #7: Is that something which MPLX could be open to if the right opportunity arises , or you are more comfortable ? You know , being the supplier of natural gas , but not the generator of electricity ?
Speaker #7: If you could talk about that .
Speaker #3: Yes . Of course . Thanks for the question . You know , as you know , when we look at the northeast , we are handling touching 10% of U.S.
Speaker #3: natural gas consumption every day . So our ability to continue to evaluate where in this opportunity set that we can best support our producer customers , is a place that we are spending time evaluating , etc.
Speaker #3: . Again , this is the first step for us as we continue to evaluate those opportunities . I'm going to pass it to Greg , who's been spending quite a bit of time looking at how and where MPLX can continue to pursue opportunities .
Speaker #8: Manav , it's a great question . You know , the first , obviously , as Marianne said , being a large player in midstream business and touching a lot of gas , we aggregate gas at our processing plants similar to interstate pipelines and some of the other projects you've seen .
Speaker #8: So we certainly have the ability to co-locate, similar to the smaller project where we have a co-located facility, and we can sell gas.
Speaker #8: And buy power and increase reliability . The in terms of generating the power , the solar turbines and the and the caterpillar reciprocating engines , that , that constitute most of the prime movers for generation behind the meter are assets that we we deploy by the hundreds across our system .
Speaker #8: So, we know how to install, operate, and maintain these units running all of our gas compression. And so, we have that capability on the refining side of Marathon.
Speaker #8: We actually self-generate power at at some of the refineries . So we have the capability . But it's a separate business case in terms of moving from providing gas and processing to to move into the power generation business .
Speaker #8: So that's something that we'll keep all options open and continue to look at , talk to a lot of people and , and see where that goes .
Speaker #8: If anywhere .
Speaker #7: Thank you so much for taking my questions .
Speaker #3: You're welcome . Thank you .
Speaker #1: Thank you. Our next question comes from Teresa Chen with Barclays. Your line is open; you may ask your question.
Speaker #9: Thank you . Going back to the Titan complex and the early days of integration , after the recent close , as you continue your investment here in the build out , has there been any shift in commercial activity with your customers ?
Speaker #9: Any incremental interest in your services ? Now that you have this set of assets within your portfolio ?
Speaker #3: Good morning , Teresa . Thanks for the question . You know , I would tell you integration with our sour gas acquisition , which we refer to as North Wind , has gone very well .
Speaker #3: You know , as we exited the quarter roughly , you know , processing at 150 , you may have also heard and will echo some of the comments that those producer customers who we are working for in the region have commented on .
Speaker #3: I think there they're pleased with the fact that MPLX now owns this asset . We're working diligently . They were customers of ours in that basin prior , and this adds , you know , more opportunity for us to continue to work closely with those key customers .
Speaker #3: You know, one of the other things that we talked about when we were together the last time was the potential for processing. You know, some of our contracts are about 2 to 3 years.
Speaker #3: Their third party. As we look at the ability to accelerate growth in that region, being able to take on incremental processing would be a place that we would look to grow beyond that integration.
Speaker #3: The other thing that I would mention , as we continue to look at the project and as I shared with John earlier , passing the the look at how EBITDA will grow , we expect to be complete so that by the end of 2026 , as we head into EBITDA generation , those projects will be completed and will be able to see the full benefit supporting our customers in the basin .
Speaker #3: I'll look to Greg to see if there's anything else that he wants to add because he's been overseeing the strength of that integration.
Speaker #8: Thanks, Marion. We've been spending most of the time towards the last few weeks of the quarter and then into the early first quarter, integrating the assets and working with producers to ramp up volume.
Speaker #8: We've had we're integrating people into our existing team in West Texas , and that's that's going very well . And we're also integrating systems accounting systems , operating systems and trying to integrate the systems together .
Speaker #8: And we you know , we've got great feedback from our customers . We're meeting with our customers . I think they're excited about our ownership and operation of the system .
Speaker #8: And moving to the next level as we continue to to deploy the the assets . Titan one train in the commissioning process late in the quarter and into the prior month , and the the third train of Titan one and then Titan two , civil and soil work underway for that plant to come into service .
Speaker #8: Latter part of of 26 .
Speaker #9: Thank you . And then related to the Loi with Mara Mariam going back to your comments about how low or no cost this is going to be , can you just frame that up in terms of what would be the nature of any potential CapEx related to this , and if there's not so much of like a , you CapEx or economic moat , what position you to win this agreement and what would position MPLX in your regions of service , given the competition out there to win incremental agreements ?
Speaker #9: And with this transaction specifically , what are the next steps ?
Speaker #3: Yeah . Thanks , Teresa . Look , I think one of the benefits that we see from this transaction is the potential for In-basin demand , right ?
Speaker #3: The growth on that in basin demand . So essentially , you know , the way that this Loi will continue to be structured is we will provide gas .
Speaker #3: I'd like to say , at the tailpipe of our plants and then in return , so to speak , right , we will have the ability to have lower costs , more reliable power to provide to our producer customers .
Speaker #3: So again , when I say low or no cost , it really isn't anything that we need to do in order to facilitate that transaction .
Speaker #3: You know , in terms of the opportunities there , we're continuing to evaluate how that might go forward . But as we stand right now , this Loi , we think has the potential to increase In-basin demand .
Speaker #9: Thank you so much .
Speaker #3: You're welcome . Thank you .
Speaker #1: Thank you. Our next question comes from Burke Sansevero with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. You may ask your question.
Speaker #5: Hi . Good morning .
Speaker #10: Just looking at slide nine . Can you please walk through some of your assumptions for basin demand growth and incremental takeaway capacity to underwrite the 10% Marcellus and Utica gas growth through 2030 , mainly curious if you expect new greenfield pipelines to be built out of Appalachia .
Speaker #10: Thank you .
Speaker #8: This is Greg . I'll speak to that . The we continue to grow in the Marcellus and the Utica , primarily the Marcellus through incremental plant construction .
Speaker #8: As you see , our Harmon Creek three plant in Washington County , PA , is is in construction and supported by customer contracts .
Speaker #8: We also have seen growth over the last 12 to 18 months in the Utica . As we fill existing capacity in that system that was built years ago .
Speaker #8: And as rigs moved away , capacity freed up . But we're filling that capacity . We're at over 70% utilization in the Utica now at 95% .
Speaker #8: A new a new high in Marcellus , in spite of being our largest area in processing over seven BCF a day of gas of rich gas and liquids that come with that .
Speaker #8: So we are our customers . Producer , customers who own the residue gas at the back of our plants have commitments and are finding the capacity to exit the basin .
Speaker #8: There's also in-basin demand growth , both for power generation , both coal to gas power plant , coal to gas switching at power , existing plants and then new plants , as well as behind the meter .
Speaker #8: Weather data center or other power generation . So I think there's in in-basin demand growth . Obviously , MVP coming online was was a big adder to take away capacity and we continue to see increases in capacity announced on that system , particularly as the downstream pipeline system is bottlenecked .
Speaker #8: So we feel that our producers , with the positions they have , both in firm capacity and capacity , that opens up , that maybe other producers don't use , have growth .
Speaker #8: The ability to continue to grow even in the Marcellus , where the volumes are high in utilization , is high .
Speaker #10: Thank you . Just for my second one , as .
Speaker #6: You .
Speaker #10: Continue to build out the Permian position , do you have visibility on filling the full 300,000 barrels per day on Bengal with NGLs from your own plants ?
Speaker #8: Yeah , we have visibility to with with the seven . We'll have six six plants with the seventh plant with Secretariat coming online and other production from third parties connected to Bengal .
Speaker #8: We're confident in filling that capacity on that pipeline.
Speaker #10: Thank you .
Speaker #3: You're welcome. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you . And as a reminder , if you'd like to ask a question , press star one . Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with J.P.
Speaker #1: Morgan, your line is open. You may ask your question.
Speaker #11: Hi . Good morning .
Speaker #3: Good morning . Jeremy , how are you ?
Speaker #11: Good . Just as I think about , I guess the long term EBITDA growth , if you are going to be in the mid-single digit growth on a multiyear basis , would organic sufficient to underpin that or would there need to be a certain amount of inorganic initiatives as well to complement to mid-single digits or higher ?
Speaker #11: Thank you .
Speaker #3: Jeremy . You were cutting out a little bit , but I think your question was , do we need M&A and organic growth opportunities to meet mid-single digit over the longer period of time ?
Speaker #3: I think that's what your question was . So let me try to address that . You know , as you as you've seen over the next couple of years , tried to lay out how we see that EBITDA coming to fruition .
Speaker #3: But certainly when we look at organic opportunities , we those that fit our strategic lens , etc. , were executing on those and gave you a few examples .
Speaker #3: But we also see the opportunity again , assuming that those M&A opportunities would meet our strategic rationale , provide us that mid-single digit give us the mid-teens returns , we do see opportunities for incremental M&A to continue to build out mid-single digit growth .
Speaker #3: growth and So Yeah , I think that's fair . When you look at the size of our EBITDA , you know , look at if I can do , you know , rough math for you , you know , just a $7 billion EBITDA .
Speaker #3: I hope that was your question , Jeremy .
Speaker #11: it sounds like organic alone wouldn't get to mid-single digit . They would need to be acquisitions to get there over a multiyear period .
Speaker #3: We're approaching a half $1 billion worth of growth . You know , we've shared with you the opportunity set in nat gas and NGL and will continue to focus our resources in the Permian .
Speaker #3: We will also concentrate on the base business . We never lose focus on the base business . And including JVs and opportunities there as well .
Speaker #3: But , you know , given the size of that EBITDA growth , likely that we will see inorganic opportunities as well .
Speaker #11: That's helpful .
Speaker #4: Jeremy , this is Chris . I might just add to that as well , though . One thing I do want to note is you've heard about all of these acquisitions .
Speaker #4: We've recently done this also provides additional growth opportunities , new organic projects for optimization , and growth . So that backlog of what I would call capital projects is going to continue to grow .
Speaker #4: So we have backlog . Looking at the 2627 as we sit today , 28 as Greg and Shawn continue to see these assets come online , they're also going to identify more opportunities for more organic projects as we progress .
Speaker #11: That's helpful . Thanks . And if I could get one last one in just as far as the distribution growth policy , how should we think about that over time ?
Speaker #11: Post the two 12.5% raises recently here .
Speaker #3: Yeah . Thanks , Jeremy . So as I mentioned , you know , we look at a couple of years and see a path to 12.5% distribution growth .
Speaker #3: You know , for the next couple of years . That's how we're seeing it today . And beyond that , we'll continue to evaluate .
Speaker #3: But you know , for the next couple of years , in addition to 24 and 25 , that's how we see 12.5% distribution growth .
Speaker #11: Great . Thank you very much .
Speaker #3: You're welcome . Thank you .
Speaker #1: Thank you . Our final question comes from Michael Bloom with Wells Fargo . Your line is open . You may ask your question .
Speaker #12: Hi. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I just wanted to go back to a prior comment made about evaluating potentially bringing power to a data center project.
Speaker #12: Since you do operate a lot of you have a lot of experience operating those anyway . Is that something that you're actively evaluating and discussions with potential customers , or just more something that's sort of a longer term potential item ?
Speaker #8: Yeah , we're not . No intent to mention that we're actively evaluating it really is that we have capability and optionality . If if it made sense in the future .
Speaker #12: Okay . Perfect . Thank you . And then I just wanted to ask high level , you could refresh our refresh us a little bit .
Speaker #12: You know , I think there's a view out their that crude oil prices are going to be lower for some period of time here .
Speaker #12: So can you can you just discuss how that could impact your logistics segment . Either positively or negatively . Thanks .
Speaker #4: Hey .
Speaker #13: This is Shawn . Hey . Just on the on the crude oil and product logistics side of the business . If you look at our volumes continue to be strong .
Speaker #13: Really , in all areas . And really , that is , you know , anchored and really part of our partnership with Marathon Petroleum .
Speaker #13: And that's where the two together and that partnership continues to give us a really strong foundation . But I think as we look out , it's a strong , you know , we continue to see strong demand or strong throughput .
Speaker #4: Yeah . Michael , this is Chris . What I might add to that . You'll remember that on the crude oil and projects logistics side of the business , those contracts with Marathon have significant minimum volume commitments .
Speaker #4: And they're also capacity type arrangements . So if you go back all the way to kind of the Covid year , you'll remember they didn't really see that that big of a dip in what what would be the probably the most extreme hopefully that we ever see when it comes to EBITDA from that segment .
Speaker #4: So that that segment is is very well protected .
Speaker #12: Great .
Speaker #8: Thank you . I would add this is Greg . I would add that from a producer standpoint , we're still seeing strong demand for whether it be gas , NGLs or crude oil .
Speaker #8: We're we're not seeing changes in plans in terms of producer activity .
Speaker #2: All right . Operator do you have any other questions today . ?
Speaker #1: At this time , I'm showing no further questions .
Speaker #2: Great . With that . Should you have more questions or would you like clarifications on the topics discussed this morning ? Please feel free to reach out .
Speaker #2: Members of our Investor Relations team will be available to take your calls . Thank you so much for joining us today .
Speaker #1: Thank you . That does conclude today's conference . We thank you for your participation at this time . You may disconnect your lines .