Q3 2025 Phillips 66 Earnings Call

Speaker #1: My name is Erica , and I will be your operator for today's call . At this time , all participants are in a listen only mode .

Speaker #1: Later , we will conduct a question and answer session . Please note that this conference is being recorded . I will now turn the call over to Sean Maher , Vice President , Investor Relations .

Speaker #1: Sean , you may begin .

Speaker #2: Welcome to Phillips 66 earnings conference call . Participants on today's call will include Mark , chairman and CEO Kevin Mitchell , CFO . Don Baldridge .

Speaker #2: Midstream and Chemicals . Rich Harbison , refining . And Brian Mandel , marketing and commercial . Today's presentation can be found on the Investor Relations section of the Phillips 66 website , along with supplemental financial and operating information .

Speaker #2: Slide two contains our Safe Harbor statement. We will be making forward-looking statements during today's call. Actual results may differ materially from today's comments.

Speaker #2: Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included here, as well as in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

Speaker #2: Thanks ,

Speaker #3: Sean . Before we begin the call , I'd like to take a moment to recognize Jeffrey Dietert , our vice President of Investor Relations .

Speaker #3: Since 2017 . After a long and successful career in the energy industry , Jeff announced his decision to retire at the end of this year .

Speaker #3: On behalf of the entire management team , I want to extend our deepest gratitude to Jeff for his invaluable contributions to the company , and we wish him all the best in retirement .

Speaker #3: During the quarter , we continued to execute on our strategy and delivered strong financial and operating performance . Refining results demonstrated our commitment to world class operations midstream , along with marketing and specialties , delivered another consistent contribution , providing a strong foundation for our capital allocation framework .

Speaker #3: Chemicals generated solid returns despite a challenging market operating above 100% utilization year to date . Adjusted Chemicals EBITDA is $700 million , reflecting the unique feedstock advantage of our assets .

Speaker #3: During the quarter, the Dos Picos two gas plant became fully operational, and the first expansion of our Coastal Bend pipeline was successfully completed.

Speaker #3: These milestones enabled us to achieve record NGL throughput and fractionation volumes since quarter-end. We processed the final barrel of crude oil at the Los Angeles refinery.

Speaker #3: We sincerely thank our Los Angeles refinery employees for their exemplary dedication to safely operating the assets . As we progress the idling process earlier this month , we also closed on our acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in the wood River and Borger refineries .

Speaker #3: This transaction simplifies our portfolio and enhances our ability to capture operational and commercial synergies across the value chain. The further integration of the Wood River, Borger, and Ponca City refineries will create a system that offers opportunities to capture margin across our assets.

Speaker #3: An example is the recently announced open season for Western Gateway . This refined products pipeline will ensure reliable supply to Arizona , California and Nevada from Mid-Continent refineries .

Speaker #3: This proposed project is one of many opportunities that will drive greater shareholder value aligned with our focus on continuous improvement and the dedication to operational excellence.

Speaker #3: We're excited about the future . Rich will now provide more context on our progress and the future in refining . Thanks , Mark .

Speaker #4: Slide four highlights another strong quarter for refining . A clear reflection of our commitment to operational excellence . We achieved 99% utilization , the highest quarter since 2018 .

Speaker #4: And above industry average . Our year to date clean product yield of 87% is a record , underscoring our ability to maximize value from every barrel processed .

Speaker #4: Our third-quarter adjusted cost per barrel of $6.07 was impacted by $0.40 per barrel due to a $69 million environmental accrual related to the Los Angeles refinery.

Speaker #4: Since 2022 . We've reduced our adjusted controllable cost by approximately $1 per barrel . We have built our improvement strategy on five pillars of excellence safety , people , reliability , margin and cost efficiency .

Speaker #4: Our greatest asset is our people training them well and sending them home safely each and every day is our top priority . Reliable operations improves nearly every metric .

Speaker #4: Our team is focused on a world class reliability program that will sustain our strong operating performance . We are seeing excellent progress in utilization and uptime , and we're not done yet .

Speaker #4: We've made some tough but impactful decisions that are paying off as we lower our cost structure and improve our flexibility and optionality to capture changing market conditions .

Speaker #4: Excellence in all five pillars maximizes earnings and value creation. Moving to slide five. Since early 2022, refining has been on a journey.

Speaker #4: We have been making structural changes to the portfolio and organization that will continue to drive long term shareholder value . We've rationalized our refining footprint while strengthening our position in the central corridor .

Speaker #4: The full ownership of the wood River and Borger refineries creates additional high return organic opportunities . We've also transformed the organization , centralizing support functions , operating the assets as a fleet versus independently .

Speaker #4: We have a list of low capital , high return projects in the queue going through our standard review and approval process . The ones we've already executed have improved yields , product value and flexibility .

Speaker #4: We've increased our optionality to switch between heavy and light crudes and between finished product mixes. I look forward to implementing the next phase of organic growth opportunities.

Speaker #4: Lastly, we're focused on driving efficiencies, which will further improve our cost profile. We're targeting adjusted controllable costs per barrel to be approximately $5.50 on an annual basis by 2027.

Speaker #4: We are positioned well for the future . Now , I'll turn the call over to Kevin to cover the financial results for the quarter .

Speaker #5: Thank you . Rich . On slide six , third quarter reported earnings were $133 million , or $0.32 per share . Adjusted earnings were $1 billion , or $2.52 per share , both reported and adjusted earnings include the $241 million pre-tax impact of accelerated depreciation and approximately $100 million in charges related to our plan to idle operations at the Los Angeles refinery by year end .

Speaker #5: We generated $1.2 billion of operating cash flow , operating cash flow , excluding working capital , was $1.9 billion . We returned $751 million to shareholders , including $267 million of share repurchases .

Speaker #5: Net debt to capital was 41%. We plan to reduce debt with operating cash flow and proceeds from the announced fourth-quarter European retail disposition.

Speaker #5: I will now cover the segment results on slide seven . Total company adjusted earnings increased $52 million to $1 billion . Midstream results decreased , mainly due to lower margins , partially offset by higher volumes .

Speaker #5: These results include $30 million of additional depreciation related to the retirement of assets associated with our Los Angeles refinery. Chemicals improved on higher margins and lower costs, which were largely driven by a decrease in turnaround spend. Refining results increased on stronger realized margins, partially offset by environmental costs associated with the idling of the Los Angeles refinery.

Speaker #5: Marketing and specialty results decreased due to lower margins , primarily driven by more favorable market conditions . In the second quarter . In renewable fuels , results improved , primarily due to higher margins , including inventory impacts and international renewable credits .

Speaker #5: Slide eight shows cash flow for the third quarter . Cash from operations excluding working capital , was $1.9 billion . Working capital was a use of $742 million , primarily due to an inventory build debt , increased primarily due to the issuance of hybrid bonds , which was partially offset by a reduction in short term debt .

Speaker #5: We returned $751 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends , and funded $541 million of capital spending . Our ending cash balance , including assets held for sale , was $2 billion .

Speaker #5: Looking ahead to the fourth quarter on slide nine , in chemicals , we expect the global Onp utilization rate to be in the mid 90s .

Speaker #5: In refining, we expect the worldwide crude utilization rate to be in the low to mid-90s. Turnaround expense is expected to be between $125 million and $145 million.

Speaker #5: The utilization and turnaround guidance reflects 100% ownership of the Wood River and Borger refineries, and removal of Los Angeles. We anticipate corporate and other costs to be between $340 million and $360 million.

Speaker #5: Now we will move to slide ten and open the line for questions , after which Mark will wrap up the call .

Speaker #1: Thank you . We will now begin the question and answer session . As we open the call for questions . As a courtesy to all participants , please limit yourself to one question and a follow up .

Speaker #1: If you have a question, please press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the queue.

Speaker #1: Please press star then two . If you are using a speakerphone , you may need to pick up the handset before pressing the numbers .

Speaker #1: Once again , if you have a question , please press Star . Then one on your touch tone phone . Steve Richardson from Evercore .

Speaker #1: Please go ahead . Your line is open .

Speaker #6: Great . Thank you . Regarding interested , if we could just dig a little further there . Very clear . What looks to be a really attractive acquisition price .

Speaker #6: And you've got a clear synergy target out there . But could we talk a little bit about beyond this inside and outside the fence line , some of the other benefits and just address what 100% ownership of these facilities opens up in terms of some of the organic growth that Ritch mentioned ?

Speaker #7: Sure , Steve , I think this this falls into the category of our strategy and action . Several years ago , we identified that the Midcontinent Central Central core was core to our business , and we would focus and make strategic decisions around that .

Speaker #7: And since then, we've made the decision to idle LA and redevelop the land there. We announced our increased ownership of WRP that you referenced here, and now we pushed that on with the open season of the Western Gateway.

Speaker #7: Now , the first step is that really it opens up the frontier to integrate more freely . WRP , Ponca City and Borger together into one system that creates a lot of optionality , a lot of opportunity .

Speaker #7: And I'll let I'll let Rich and Brian dive into the details on that .

Speaker #4: All right . Thanks , Mark . I'll start . And then pass it over to Brian here for the commercial side of the business .

Speaker #4: You know , when I think about this , Steve , you know , we've added 250,000 barrels a day of processing capacity for us .

Speaker #4: And what is our most competitive portfolio in the center of Mid-Continent area ? There ? And as you indicated , we got a very attractive price not diving into the cost synergies , but really this deal opens up some organic growth opportunities that will allow us to increase our crude processing optionality and flexibility with our previous arrangement in the JV .

Speaker #4: We were we're somewhat locked into a desired crude slate and investments to open up that flexibility . We're generally not looked upon favorably .

Speaker #4: So . So now we have the opportunity to really open up this flexibility inside this system , as well as on the product slate side of the business , too .

Speaker #4: So we see lots of opportunity there , which will help us increase our market capture opportunity . But most importantly , from my perspective , it's our ability to operate .

Speaker #4: Wood, River, Borga, and Ponca City operate as a regional system. They are interconnected with a very good pipeline system operated by our midstream assets.

Speaker #4: And this will allow us to really optimize the use of intermediate products between the sites, and what that leads to is higher utilization of these downstream units.

Speaker #4: These units downstream of the crude operation . And that will also allow us to increase utilization of these conversion units . And make additional products .

Speaker #4: All that leads to more commercial opportunity . And I'll kick it over to Brian to expand a little bit on that . Hey , Steve , from from a commercial point of view , we have currently a cross-functional team looking at synergy opportunities .

Speaker #8: Everything you can think of and currently have 30 plus initiatives in the pipeline . And we're generating new initiatives every single week . So maybe just to give you a few examples of some flavor for what we're looking at , we've been able to improve our integrated model between wood River and Ponca City on butane blending and optimize the two plants , which are highly integrated with our midstream assets .

Speaker #8: Another example is we've updated our variable cost economics on proprietary pipelines to incentivize shipping on p66 assets versus third party pipelines . We're utilizing some of the marine assets that were previously dedicated to WRP for other higher netback service , and also we're using our Borger and Wood River coke and blending it with Coke from other refineries to generate more volume to be placed in the adeno anode .

Speaker #8: Coke market. So those are just a few examples. It's early days; a lot more opportunity to go.

Speaker #9: Hey Steve , this is Kevin . Just one other point of clarification . I'd like to make , because I think there's been a little bit of confusion out there in terms of impact on capital .

Speaker #9: So we increased our guidance on the capital budget to $2.5 billion, or approximately $2.5 billion, from what was previously $2 billion. This adjustment has been attributed to WRP.

Speaker #9: That's a little bit of an overstatement of the impact. The reality here is, if you look at 2025, the capital budget was $2.1 billion.

Speaker #9: The WRP capital budget at a 100% level was $300 million . And so our net addition is $150 million relative to that . And that 300 is a reasonable run rate to assume .

Speaker #9: And so really , we're saying the 2.1 goes to 2.4 on a 100% consolidated basis . But we already had 50% of that uplift reflected in our operating cash flow .

Speaker #9: Because of the way that flows through the distributions from the equity method accounting . So I just wanted to put some clarity around that point .

Speaker #6: Appreciate the additional cover color there , particularly on the CapEx . If I could just quickly follow up and fear of sounding like I'm leading the witness , but fair to assume that a lot of these benefits we just talked about , both in the refining side and the marketing side , are capital efficient , and we're going to see some of those benefits relatively near term .

Speaker #6: I mean, it's the one point we'd like to probably bring up: when do we start seeing some of those things?

Speaker #7: Yeah , I think you will see capital efficient additions there . There are capital opportunities allowed to Rich's list of of low capital high return opportunities .

Speaker #7: But the kind of synergies we talked about and the commercial opportunities that free us up, those things are happening as we speak.

Speaker #6: Wonderful . Thank you .

Speaker #7: Thanks , Steve .

Speaker #1: Teresa Chen from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker #10: Hello. Thank you for taking my questions. I want to dig deeper into Western Gateway. Now that we are a week and change into the.

Speaker #10: Binding open season. Can you talk about the rationale behind this project and why it's important for Phillips 66? How does it stack up versus one competing pipeline project?

Speaker #10: And how do you think this pipeline will change party flows as well as margin capture for your central corridor assets?

Speaker #7: Yeah , Teresa , that's great question . When you step back and think about our mission to provide energy and improve lives , and when we looked at the evolution of refining capacity .

Speaker #7: Out west , impacting both California as well as Arizona and Nevada , we saw an opportunity , along with the alignment of wood River , Ponca City and Borger , to really make something special happen .

Speaker #7: In essence , the ability to bring our Mid-Continent strengths , our Mid-Continent advantages to the West Coast , Saint Louis , all the way to Santa Monica .

Speaker #7: And we believe there's great opportunities there, less refining capacity in California, and growing demand in Arizona and Nevada. All of those things combined to get us interested in this opportunity.

Speaker #7: Brian and Don can dig into the details of those opportunities and address the specifics of your question .

Speaker #11: Sure . Thanks , Mark and Teresa . We do think it's a unique and compelling opportunity . If you think about just the framework of the project , our Gold line really operates like a supply header that's going to be able to access the Mid-Continent refineries , bring that volume to to help fill the Western gateway pipeline , which is going to take product along the new pipeline all the way to to Phoenix , which , you know , that will help satisfy that market .

Speaker #11: That area . And then the balance of that volume , being able to go all the way to Colton , California , where it can access the broader California and Nevada market .

Speaker #11: We think that's a compelling opportunity, and certainly early days in the open season. We're having constructive and active conversations with interested parties.

Speaker #11: So more more to come on that , I think I think the the project in its how we have it set up is is something that's resonating quite well with , with the market .

Speaker #8: And maybe just from a commercial perspective , you know , the way I think about it is pad five is going to look very similar to pad one , where you have a short market , you have a pipeline that brings in domestic volumes like colonial does to pad one .

Speaker #8: And then you have barrels coming from overseas, waterborne barrels as well. So it'll be set up very similar to that market.

Speaker #8: And as you know , a pipeline is the most reliable way to move volume . It won't be susceptible to a dock restrictions or lack of logistics demerge or weather issues .

Speaker #8: And assuming only our pipeline gets built , we estimate probably about half the volume will end up in the Phoenix market with reversal of Kinder Morgan and the rest will end up in California , which makes sense as Mark mentioned , as you see , the closures of California refineries , but California will continue to be a waterborne import market .

Speaker #8: And at Phillips 66 will continue to be import barrels by the water and from our commercial perspective , at Phillips , the pipeline will allow us to move products , as Mark said from our refineries for likely better than Mid-con , Netbacks and all our Mid-con refineries can make Arizona grade gasoline and California grade gasoline .

Speaker #8: So . So we see the pipeline as a as a great opportunity for California for Arizona , for Nevada , and for all the potential shippers .

Speaker #8: Yeah .

Speaker #4: As far .

Speaker #7: As the comparison of our project to One Oak's project, I think they have different target markets or target sources: Gulf Coast versus Mid-Continent.

Speaker #7: And I think that the ultimately the market will determine if one or either of the projects go forward . So we believe we've got a strong ability to .

Speaker #7: Bring mid-continent volumes all the way to California . In in the partnership with Kinder Morgan , really provides a lot of strength for this option .

Speaker #7: And we have full faith that we'll move forward with this .

Speaker #10: Thank you for that comprehensive answer . And as a follow up , from a cost perspective , what kind of CapEx should we anticipate for Western Gateway , given the substantial greenfield component ?

Speaker #10: And how will the cost be split between the partners? Since Kinder is contributing its existing pipeline infrastructure?

Speaker #11: Sure , Teresa . So the partnership is is 5050 with Kinder Morgan . And so that'll be at the end of the day , how the balance works .

Speaker #11: And then in terms of the overall CapEx , you know , we haven't disclosed that number . And part of that is because as we talk through with shippers and different supply connections , we're still working through , you know , what what some of that connection costs might , might entail and how how all that will flow from a volume standpoint .

Speaker #11: And that will drive some of the infrastructure needs . And obviously capital requirements . But safe to say this is a from an investment opportunity .

Speaker #11: This is a consistent midstream type return investment that we're looking at in concert with Kinder Morgan . .

Speaker #9: And probably also worth highlighting that the capital spend wouldn't be in the next couple of years either . You're sort of looking at 27 , 28 , 29 time frame .

Speaker #9: So, no near-term impact on capital budgeting.

Speaker #10: Thank you very much .

Speaker #1: Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs . Please go ahead . Your line is now open .

Speaker #12: Yeah . Good . Good morning Mark . And team . I wanted to keep on pushing on this midstream point . And you've talked about $4.5 billion in EBITDA by year end 2027 .

Speaker #12: As the run rate you Annualize Q3 , you're close to $4 billion . And so maybe you could just talk about bridging that 500 million bucks .

Speaker #12: And if oil prices languish , how sensitive is the EBITDA to that ? And and so giving us confidence around that incremental $500 million would be great .

Speaker #7: Absolutely , Neil I'll kick it off and then turn it over to Don . But you know , first of all , I think you have to look at our track record .

Speaker #7: We've grown that NGL business from $2 billion to $4 billion. The midstream business has also grown from $2 billion to $4 billion over the last several years.

Speaker #7: And as you noted , we're just under $1 billion this quarter . So the $4 billion is in line of sight . This is all the result of a concerted effort based on our strategy .

Speaker #7: We aligned on several years ago with our board to establish this wellhead to market presence in NGLs . And we've done disciplined , accretive , inorganic and organic things to do that , to do , to get to where we are today and we see the next increment , another $500 million , largely from from organic .

Speaker #7: I mean , we've got line of sight on organic opportunities and the inorganic opportunities were facilitated by non-core asset dispositions . So we've been able to reallocate capital and and free that up .

Speaker #7: And most importantly , the organic opportunities quite often are unleashed because of the inorganic opportunity . So this is all been a relentless pursuit of of higher RoCE in the midstream business , as well as building competitive advantage on top of competitive advantage .

Speaker #7: And I will tell you that it was a great visit. We had The Sweeney last week. We've done some things around the tracks there.

Speaker #7: The operations have been incredible, and the operators pointed out that they've found our fifth frack. We have four fractionators at Sweeny. They found enough capacity through some debottlenecking projects.

Speaker #7: They've done . So in essence , they've added an additional frack through very low capital opportunities . So much like refining . We're looking at ways to be more efficient , to grow more aggressively in midstream and more creatively .

Speaker #7: And Don's got another list of opportunities that he's going to go after.

Speaker #11: Sure . Thanks , Mark . And definitely the platform that we have developed over the years . It just lends itself to a lot of organic growth opportunities .

Speaker #11: And that's what's really driving this growth from 4 billion to 4.5 billion. A lot of those projects are publicly announced and are in the execution phase.

Speaker #11: You know , if I look at the gas gathering and processing business , we've got plant expansions in the Permian with our Dos Picos gas plant that came on just a few months ago , that will fill up by 2026 .

Speaker #11: And then our Iron Mesa gas plant that we announced , its under construction . That will come online in early 27 . And fill up .

Speaker #11: So our footprint, you know that, plus the commercial successes, as well as the higher NGL content in the production, that's really driving a lot of the volume growth that's coming through our system.

Speaker #11: That's , again , all fee based type , type margins . So very limited sensitivity to the underlying commodity price . That volume drives .

Speaker #11: What what happens downstream . And in our NGL pipeline business , you know , in we just completed the first phase of our Coastal Bend expansion .

Speaker #11: We're running at full capacity. We've got a next phase of capacity: 125,000 barrels per day of additional capacity will come online later in 2026, as well as the restart of our Powder River pipeline that will pull in barrels out of the Bakken.

Speaker #11: So those volumes that capacity and the volumes that will flow through there again , help drive this earnings growth , that will take us to that $4.5 billion run rate by the end of 2027 .

Speaker #11: So we've got a well-defined organic growth plan that we're executing . The other thing I would just say is that now our asset footprint , you know , it definitely is in a position where it creates additional growth opportunities that are high return , low capital , that we continue to pull together and execute on .

Speaker #11: So really , really see you like we've got some great momentum within this part of the business . And our executing it on a day to day basis .

Speaker #12: Thank you Don . And thank you . Thank you . Thank you Mark . So the follow up is just crude and transit .

Speaker #12: A lot has been made of the 1.4 billion barrels that appear to be on the water . But today's dose reinforced the view that they aren't finding their way into to US shores or into a lot of pricing nodes .

Speaker #12: And I want to get your perspective of do you guys have visibility to that crude . Actually , you know , you know , manifesting its way over here .

Speaker #12: And if not , what do you think is driving that ? Do you think it's the sanctions , whether it's Iran , Venezuela and now Russia contributing to to to that to that difference between what appears to be a visible build in inventory on the water , but not on land .

Speaker #13: Yes . .

Speaker #8: And , you know , it's Brian , we do see a very large build on water barrels . It's a function of what those barrels are .

Speaker #8: And it's not clear if those are Russian barrels . And they don't get to end users . They may sit there for a while .

Speaker #8: If they are other barrels , maybe Saudi barrels or barrels that we'll get to market . And that will probably put pressure on Saudi OS and benchmark crudes .

Speaker #8: And so we're kind of waiting to see what those crudes are . And it's not it's not clear , but it is clear that there is a lot of crude on the water now .

Speaker #12: Okay. Thanks, Brian.

Speaker #1: Justin Jenkins from Raymond James, please go ahead.

Speaker #14: Great . Thanks . I guess one of one of the common questions we get from longer term investors is , is on the debt side , the pathway to your 2027 targets .

Speaker #14: And Kevin , you touched on it a bit in your remarks . But maybe I'd ask if if you could give your thoughts on On the bridge to that $17 billion debt target by 2027 .

Speaker #7: Hey , Justin , this is Mark . I just I just want to context a little bit that we've we've clearly been using both our balance sheet as well as asset dispositions to drive the inorganic transactions as well as the organic opportunities midstream , as well as in refining .

Speaker #7: While sustaining our commitment to return at least 50% of our cash from operations to shareholders, we have been able to do that quite effectively.

Speaker #7: We're making a more proactive shift now towards intently focusing on the debt level. And then that debt reduction is a clear priority.

Speaker #7: And Kevin is well prepared to walk you through the math going forward.

Speaker #15: Yeah. Thanks, Mark. So we still have.

Speaker #9: That same $17 billion debt target has not changed. You will have noticed that in the third quarter, our debt level increased to $21.8 billion.

Speaker #9: Now, that increase was a combination of some debt issuance and some short-term debt reduction. But we also had a corresponding increase in cash balance.

Speaker #9: So on a net basis , we were essentially flat during the third . The third quarter . But as we look ahead to the next , over the next , the fourth quarter and the next couple of years , and you look in the at the third quarter , actually , and the second quarter pre working capital , we generated $1.9 billion of operating cash flow in both periods .

Speaker #9: You think about WRP coming into the equation and and I'll use this number partly to keep the math simple . But if we're at $8 billion in operating cash flow annually , you can we're still committed to returning 50% of cash , operating cash to shareholders .

Speaker #9: That's 4 billion , which would be split evenly between the dividend and the buybacks . That leaves 4 billion . That's available . The capital budget of 2 to 2.5 billion per year , as we talked about earlier , leaves somewhere in the order of one and a half to 2 billion per year available for debt reduction .

Speaker #9: That's 26 and 27. Obviously, margins will do what margins do, and so we don't have complete control over all of that.

Speaker #9: But that's a reasonable construct to think about . This in the fourth quarter of this year , we will have the proceeds from the jet disposition , but we also had just funded the WRP acquisition .

Speaker #9: And those two kind of offset. But we'll have a sizable working capital benefit in the fourth quarter, somewhere in the order of $1.5 billion will come back to us.

Speaker #9: Maybe slightly more . And so between $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter of this year , and then the one and a half to 2 billion , potentially in each of 26 and 27 gets us comfortably to that $17 billion level by the end of 27 .

Speaker #9: And that doesn't include any potential additional dispositions of non-core assets, which just provides upside in additional flexibility.

Speaker #14: Perfect . Appreciate that detail , Kevin . And Mark . I guess my second question on on the refining macro and maybe tilt to that debt cash generation side of things .

Speaker #14: Does it seem to fit your portfolio pretty well with high diesel cracks and expectations for wider dips? Maybe just your overall expectation on how cracks play out and crude differential play out into 2026.

Speaker #8: Hey there , this is Brian again . I on on the crew dips . You know we expect to see the light heavy spreads start to widen during Q4 and into Q1 .

Speaker #8: It's been somewhat delayed I think surprising many of us . But the heavy crude has been slower . As I said , with additional OPEC barrels moving into China's SPR and staying in the east in general , and then just the geopolitical concerns , adding market volatility around Russia , Iran and Venezuela in the US Gulf Coast through Q3 , the Canadian heavy crude became more attractive than high sulfur fuel oil , which caused refiners on the US Gulf Coast to run more Canadian crude .

Speaker #8: And that's supported differentials . But as we as we've entered Q4 , we're starting to see some impact from additional OPEC crude . And the kind of relative weakening , although still strong , of the high sulfur fuel oil .

Speaker #8: And additionally , the WCS production increased by 250,000 barrels in Q3 . And we're we're going to expect another 100,000 barrels or more in Q4 .

Speaker #8: And as more Canadian volume comes online, along with the winter diluent blending, we're seeing the dip weaken by about $1 in Q4 versus Q3.

Speaker #8: And Canadian production is expected to increase next year as well, with several projects coming online and also from winter diluent blending. So in 2026, the WCS curve is off.

Speaker #8: Another dollar from Q4 . So as additional crude hits the market , including Middle Eastern crude , we'd also expect to see Middle Eastern Osps to fall and put additional pressure on on heavy crude .

Speaker #8: And as you know, we're a large user of WC. So watching the WCS differential continue to widen will be a benefit to us.

Speaker #14: Thank you Brian .

Speaker #1: Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research. You may proceed with your question.

Speaker #2: Hey, good morning, everybody. Guys, utilization rates blew out this quarter—record, I believe.

Speaker #5: Since 2018 .

Speaker #2: I think you said in the release . when we were running around , Sweeney with you guys , I asked , I forget the gentleman's name .

Speaker #2: Who joined you from Chevron recently ? I said , what are you doing differently on how you think about plan turnarounds ? The the habitual one , 74 or 5 years ?

Speaker #2: Is that changing ? And should we think about your go forward capacity utilization , your ability to manage that ? If you like , as averaging higher over time ?

Speaker #2: The reason I ask the question is because Valero had a similar situation, and between the two of you, you've just basically offset the closure of Lyondell Houston.

Speaker #2: So we're trying to understand if how utilization is a new normal for not just you guys, but for the industry generally.

Speaker #4: Hey , Doug , this rich , you know , gentleman you were talking to is Bill . He's he's the refinery manager down there at Sweeny .

Speaker #4: And that was a good visit. I'm glad you mentioned that. It was a good opportunity for us to show off an asset.

Speaker #4: There . That highlights our one of our core strategies , which is integration with the midstream and also CP Kim operation there as well .

Speaker #4: You know , when I when I think about your question and how do I answer that , it's to me it it's a journey that we have been on .

Speaker #4: And you know , you don't you don't sustain utilization rates like this . If you're making quick and short term decisions , these have to be long term end of site .

Speaker #4: You know , visionary type direction that you're moving a large set of assets to , you know , of course , we started that with a cost .

Speaker #4: And margin . But but we also simultaneously was running an improvement opportunities and initiatives around our reliability programs . And those reliability programs are essential to this sustainability component , to it .

Speaker #4: And that that to me is what culturally has continued to improve over the last 2 to 3 years on this journey , as we've , you know , marched down this path and also on the margin front , which is a journey that we started a couple of years ago , and that was really centric around starting to fill up our downstream processing units behind the crude .

Speaker #4: First you got to fill the crude unit up , and then you got to fill the downstream units up . Those directly , result in clean product yield , which is where you know most of their earnings are flowing into the organization .

Speaker #4: So I think with that commitment to reliability, the world-class reliability program that we're executing, as well as the fundamental change in our cost.

Speaker #4: And margin outlooks at each of the sites give me a high level of comfort that we will be able to sustain this level of performance.

Speaker #4: Going well into the future .

Speaker #2: That's really helpful . I , I threw the AI words out to to Valero and it bumped her stock up , I think .

Speaker #2: So maybe you could say AI's help helping you manage your utilization . So my follow up to a very quick one for Kevin , Kevin , on that same trip , we had an opportunity to have dinner with the guys and you , sadly were not .

Speaker #2: We're not there to to take this question on the chin and the question basically is if you're if you're a relatively static enterprise volume , what I mean by that is you've got a lot , a lot of long life assets .

Speaker #2: However you think about midcycle, a little bit of growth in midstream in the context of the overall company, but relatively static enterprise value, seems to me that the easiest way to basically boost your equity value is to reduce your net debt.

Speaker #2: Simple math. Equity is enterprise value minus net debt. So why is net debt reduction not part of the cash return formula?

Speaker #2: Raise formula includes net debt. Why not?

Speaker #9: Well, it's, I mean, you're absolutely correct that everything else stays the same, or a reduction in debt translates into an increase in equity value.

Speaker #9: And you can choose to look at debt reduction in that light . I mean , what we do is take a very sort of consistent view that most others in the space do , which is the cash return to shareholders , is the dividend plus the buybacks .

Speaker #9: And at the same time, as part of our capital allocation framework, we've got debt reduction as a key part of that.

Speaker #9: We actually have this debate internally when we have traditionally thought of capital allocation being how much is returned to shareholders—dividends and buybacks—and how much is reinvested in the business in terms of the capital program.

Speaker #9: And now we've got this. The additional dynamic of debt reduction in which bucket does it fall into? We've tended to just break it out separately on its own.

Speaker #9: But you are absolutely correct that there is clear value proposition for equity holders through debt reduction. And we do see it the same way in that context.

Speaker #9: It's really then down to the semantics of how we communicate that.

Speaker #2: Great. I appreciate the answer, Kevin. Thanks.

Speaker #1: Manav Gupta with UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker #16: I want to really thank Jeff. Over the years, I've thrown a lot of stupid questions at him, and he's been very patient in answering all of those.

Speaker #16: So thank you , Jeff . You will be missed a lot . My first question here , sir , is on the chemical side .

Speaker #16: The indicator, and I understand it's an industry indicator, seemed relatively flat. The earnings jumped materially. Now, I think some part of it was the Port Arthur downtime.

Speaker #16: But was it also a function of you using a higher ethane blend than what? Probably the indicator is in showing. That's what I concluded.

Speaker #16: But I wanted your opinion on it. And if you could also talk about when we can get back to mid-cycle chemical margins?

Speaker #7: Yeah , just for the record , Manav , I've never fielded a stupid question from you . So I think I can speak for the rest of them .

Speaker #7: You you ask insightful questions , and this one's very insightful . You partially answered it . You know , KPMG's chain margins increased about nine and a half , 9.7 cents per pound .

Speaker #7: IHS was flat . There's really . Three drivers there . We had higher , higher high density polyethylene margins due to lower feedstock costs .

Speaker #7: So, our blend of feedstock is different than the blend used in the IHS marker, where, as you noted, it is more heavily weighted toward ethane. I think it is the most heavily weighted to ethane.

Speaker #7: And that provides a very resilient advantage . Also , in the second quarter , other CP had had some planned downtime at Port Arthur , some unplanned downtime at Cedar Bayou .

Speaker #7: They had some turnarounds as well . And so you flip all that to to the third quarter . Those things go away . That was beneficial .

Speaker #7: And also, the worm turns. Other people had unplanned downtime in the third quarter, and CPK was able to take full advantage of that because of the short in the market.

Speaker #7: And so , you know , we see , you know , the chemicals world is still oversupplied . But I would say that that , you know , what happened in that in the third quarter with that quick uptick in margins when there was a little bit of tightness created , that's that's a really good sign .

Speaker #7: You know , CP because of its cost position , is going to they've generated year to date , $700 million of EBITDA . They should .

Speaker #7: That's our half, not just Cpk-MB, our half of their EBITDA. They'll be up around $1 billion. And this is the bottom of a very protracted cycle.

Speaker #7: And so they are doing quite well. They're able to jump in when others falter. They're running at above 100% when others are rationalizing.

Speaker #7: There's going to be a lot of asset rationalization going forward. You're even hearing news out of Korea about the potential for rationalization.

Speaker #7: Europe's already well down that path . And so I think when you start seeing margin upticks , when people have outages , that's that's a good sign .

Speaker #7: We're not we're not calling this this down cycle over . We think it's going to be a long slog forward . But I think there'll be more shakeout when Cpk-mb starts up there to large world scale .

Speaker #7: The definition of world scale , frankly , assets both here in the US and in Ras Laffan , Qatar , and that will even I think , potentially force out other high cost producers .

Speaker #7: And so they're going to be moving from strength to strength. The long-term prospects are quite good for CPK-MB.

Speaker #16: Thank you for the detailed response . My quick follow up is here , sir . Initially when you did the epic deal , I think now you call it Coastal Bend , there was a little bit of a pushback , but now things are really coming together .

Speaker #16: The line has already had one expansion, and I think one more phase is planned. So help us understand where is the Epic acquired assets EBITDA at this point on a quarterly basis.

Speaker #16: And then what would it become once the full expansion happens? If you could just run us through that math? Thank you.

Speaker #7: Yeah , thank you for for highlighting that . Manav , again , the inorganic opportunities that we've done in midstream have always opened up more organic opportunities .

Speaker #7: And so I think that it's important to continue to look at our track record of what we do. We're not buying inorganic opportunities just to get bigger.

Speaker #7: We're buying because it opens up a new playing field , creates more opportunity that perhaps the incumbents couldn't , couldn't realize . And that is the case in epic .

Speaker #7: And we're quite pleased with Epic and everything that's going on around that. And, you know, Don can fill in the details of what's coming next.

Speaker #11: Chairman . And the in terms of just looking back , since we closed on the epic transaction transaction in in April , you know , compared to the acquisition plan , we are meeting to even and even exceeding what we expected from the assets .

Speaker #11: And that's really a testament to the synergy capture around the operations and commercial opportunities around that . Now , Coastal Bend pipeline , it certainly has been a a really nice ad in the Gulf Coast for us with the Corpus Christi presence , combined with what we have at Sweeny .

Speaker #11: And as you mentioned, we turned on the first phase of the expansion here in August. We're running that pipeline full again.

Speaker #11: That's, I think, a sign that we've had the volumes available on the systems. That's why we acquired the system and expanded it, because we needed the capacity.

Speaker #11: We're filling it up as we turn it on . We've got another expansion that will come on later in 2026 . And most of all , that volume is is already on , on the ground and flowing on third party pipes that will move over or it's volume that's going to come from the GMP expansions that we've already announced .

Speaker #11: So, we are executing on the acquisition plan as we advertised, and we're really pleased with the results and the follow-on opportunities that we're seeing with having that as part of our portfolio.

Speaker #16: Thank you .

Speaker #13: Thank you .

Speaker #1: Jason Gabelman with Cowen, Inc. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker #17: Yeah . Hey , thanks for taking my questions . The first question is a portfolio , one you've obviously concentrated your footprint in the central corridor , talking a lot about synergies with your midstream footprint .

Speaker #17: As you think about your East Coast and West Coast refining footprints, do you still view those as core? I mean, there are some good assets there, but obviously, they're not as well integrated with what you're doing in midstream and chemicals.

Speaker #17: So how do you think about the importance of those regions within the overall business?

Speaker #7: I think there are a couple of key things to consider here. It's clear that we have a core strategy around the integration of our Mid-Continent, or Central Corridor, refineries.

Speaker #7: There . They have the greatest crude flexibility . They have lots of optionality , but that doesn't mean that that we're we're ignoring our our remaining coastal refineries .

Speaker #7: You think about Ferndale. We've already talked about its transitioning to produce California CARB, and its value is increasing as refining capacity in California tightens up.

Speaker #7: And so we're not going to we're not going to kick out assets that are creating good value . But but we are going to focus more intensely on the integration opportunities in the Mid-Continent in Central Corridor .

Speaker #7: Likewise , Bayway , when you think about the Atlantic basin , we've got opportunities to integrate between between bayway and Humber . We can move streams back and forth to to optimize there and to enhance the profitability and the reliability of both of those assets .

Speaker #7: And there are some very, very strong opportunities there that we're continuing to look at.

Speaker #17: Okay , great . That's that's very clear . My follow up is on the renewable fuel segment . And obviously results saw a meaningful improvement quarter over quarter .

Speaker #17: You mentioned some impact from selling credits, and I think there was something about selling product out of inventory in there. So, wondering if you could just elaborate on what drove the increased quarter over quarter.

Speaker #17: How much of that is kind of underlying versus some timing impacts? Thanks.

Speaker #8: Hey, this is Brian. Jason. Maybe just talking about Q3, and we'll talk a little bit about what we're seeing in Q4.

Speaker #8: And beyond . But in Q3 , the renewable margins were actually worse . If you took a look at just just the margins .

Speaker #8: But we did a lot of self-help in Q3. We reduced costs, and we improved our logistics, particularly to get in more domestic feedstock.

Speaker #8: We sent more of our renewable products to the Pacific Northwest, where fossil basis was stronger. We got a lot of value from some new pathways that we developed.

Speaker #8: We doubled . CIF production and then , as you pointed out , we had the timing of the European credits in Q4 . We'll have some timing impacts as well .

Speaker #8: Probably fewer timing impacts than we had in Q3. But in Q4, margins are improving with weaker soybean prices and relatively stronger credit values.

Speaker #8: We think the industry will continue to run at about the same rates as they did in Q3, given the turnaround activity. The European market will continue to attract renewable products.

Speaker #8: We've been sending renewable products in that direction, both in Q3, and we've continued doing that. We also anticipate continuing to increase our SAF production in Q4, and we've seen strong interest from SAF buyers.

Speaker #8: And finally, the new pathways that I mentioned will give us some additional flexibility. But in the end, we still need more clarity on federal and state policy.

Speaker #8: For example, the guidance on RVO policy, including the reallocation of SREs and regeneration on foreign feedstock, and even more clarity on the European policy.

Speaker #8: .

Speaker #15: And Jason .

Speaker #9: It's Kevin. Just one other clarification: that inventory comment was a variance relative to the second quarter. There was no net benefit in the third quarter from inventory.

Speaker #9: It's just relative to what we saw in the second quarter, so there's not a direct impact.

Speaker #17: Yep . That's a that's a helpful call out . Thanks guys .

Speaker #1: Brian Todd with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker #18: Yeah thanks . Maybe a couple back on refining throughput was obviously , you know , much higher than anticipated in the quarter . But margin capture that still probably still a few headwinds that we see .

Speaker #18: You know , that existed in third quarter . Can you talk about maybe some of the headwinds in the third quarter and and how those might be trending or improving into the fourth quarter , and then maybe as a as a follow up , a few years ago as part of your strategic priorities , you talked about a goal of driving margin capture , improvement of 5% .

Speaker #18: Can you talk about where you are on that project ? You've you've clearly made improvements on clean product yield , but where do you think you are on on that journey ?

Speaker #18: And what are some of the things that you may be working on over the next couple of years that we should keep an eye on on that front?

Speaker #4: Hey , Ryan , just rich , let me start and then Brian can clean up any anything else in the market front . There .

Speaker #4: But , you know , as I , as I think about it , maybe the best way to approach this is a regional conversation in the Atlantic basin market capture .

Speaker #4: This quarter . 90 , 97% pretty pretty solid quarter over quarter . That was really a difference in turnaround activity in that region .

Speaker #4: But we did see improved market cracks and some inventory impacts that were really offset by some higher feedstock costs, as well as some lower product differentials in the region.

Speaker #4: The operations of the plants were quite good , though . Utilization for for the region was sitting at 99% , and , you know , and on our journey to improve , you know , we had a clean product yield in that region of 88% .

Speaker #4: So, very solid performance in that area. And we think that a lot of that's supported by the self-help that we've done.

Speaker #4: But also, a project that we initiated at Bayway increased the native gas oil production. And it's allowed us to fill up that cat, and really, we're seeing positive returns on that.

Speaker #4: And the Gulf Coast area market capture was a little bit lower at 86%. Really, the headwinds on this one were lower octane and jet differentials.

Speaker #4: So we we saw that in the marketplace utilization for the region pretty solid at 100% . And and the clean product yields at its typical 81% for that area , which , which may seem a little low on clean product yield .

Speaker #4: But I'll just remind everyone that at Lake Charles , we we produce a gas oil that is sent over to excel that impacts that overall clean product yield for for the for the facilities , central corridor , 101% market capture , very solid .

Speaker #4: Again you know that's one of our highest performing regions . The headwinds there lower product differentials . Again . And those were offset by some improved market cracks .

Speaker #4: But that that differential the common theme you're hearing here , the octane octane value as well as the jet to distillate differential , again , for the central corridor , 103% on the utilization front and 90% clean product yield .

Speaker #4: So you can see how that those assets are running and performing quite well . And then , of course , one of our headwinds for the quarter was , was in the West Coast at 69% market capture .

Speaker #4: And that's primarily driven by the wind-down of the Los Angeles refinery and the impacts associated with that. So we had that impact in the third quarter.

Speaker #4: You'll see that impact continue into the fourth quarter , where we will have , you know , wind down expenses . But yet no barrels to offset that in the profile .

Speaker #4: So we'll provide some clarity on that when we report in on the fourth quarter. Utilization was reasonably well in the West Coast at 88%.

Speaker #4: And of course, they're very complex refineries. So their product yields are up there too.

Speaker #8: And the only thing I would add was now we're seeing we we saw , as Rick mentioned , jet under diesel . Now those grades have flipped .

Speaker #8: And across all pads jet is over diesel which will be a tailwind for us . And octane spreads have firmed as well with weakening naphtha to crude and and so that's also will be a tailwind for us as well .

Speaker #18: Great . Thank you .

Speaker #1: Philip John with BMO, please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker #2: Thanks for taking .

Speaker #19: The question on on Western Gateway . How important is Phillips integration between midstream and refining and designing and executing this project . And then separately , what's your level of confidence around regulatory permitting , risk and any different dynamics here to keep in mind between the greenfield pipe and the reversal and the California ?

Speaker #7: Yeah, so we have a team that looks at integration opportunities, which has representation from Refining, Commercial, and Midstream, all looking at where we can capture the most value and create the most optionality.

Speaker #7: And this , this opportunity jumped right out of out of that kind of collaboration . And and it was a home run . And so we we see opportunities both on the refining side .

Speaker #7: We see commercial opportunities, and certainly midstream is the glue that pulls it all together. So, Don, I don't know if you have anything on the regulatory side.

Speaker #11: Yeah. Other than the feedback that we've gotten initially from folks in the various states as well as in the federal sector, it's been encouraging and positive.

Speaker #11: We're obviously in the early days of going through the open season and and firming up any of the any of the route nuances as we as we look at the new build .

Speaker #11: But we we feel very , very positive in terms of the ability to get this project done . And , and to , to follow on just to what Mark said .

Speaker #11: I think , you know , from an integration standpoint , this is a project that Phillips 66 is is uniquely positioned to , to help facilitate and drive as a as a really a compelling industry solution to market access for the Midwest refineries as well as satisfying a supply deficit in the West .

Speaker #11: So, I really feel good about where we stand and the opportunity set in front of us.

Speaker #7: I've had conversations with key people at the federal level, as well as the state level in California, and they are enthusiastic about this.

Speaker #7: I think the opportunity to leverage Midcontinent energy dominance through infrastructure that can come online fairly quickly is very attractive at the federal level.

Speaker #7: And California is looking for ways to provide energy security, and this does that. So when you get both of those sides to the table in a positive way, I think that's a strong vote of confidence for the project.

Speaker #19: Okay , great . And recognizing chemicals ran really well in the quarter . Just going back to industry capacity rationalization , I wanted to get your sense on .

Speaker #19: The China anti-inflation policies and just how meaningful do you think this could be to help bring balance back into the market?

Speaker #7: Well , I think you've seen it in refining in in China , where the the teapot refineries , it's the same kind of concept we're hearing from our chemicals folks that they're looking at drawing a line in the sand around old in less efficient assets to , to make room for what they're doing around their crude to chemicals thing .

Speaker #7: So I think that, watch that space. I think that will result in rationalization of assets, maybe even as young as only 10 or 20 years old.

Speaker #19: Thanks .

Speaker #1: Thank you . This concludes the question and answer session , and I will now turn it back over to Mark Lasha for closing comments .

Speaker #7: Thanks for all your great questions . We remain committed to our strategic priorities , consistently strong operational performance across our assets , disciplined investments which deliver attractive returns , a strong balance sheet and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders .

Speaker #7: Thank you for your interest in Phillips 66. If you have questions or feedback after today's call, please reach out to Shawn or Owen.