Q3 2025 Albemarle Corp Earnings Call
Speaker #3: Hello and welcome to ALBEMARLE CORP Corporation s Q3 2025 Earnings Call . I will now hand it over to Meredith Bandy vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainability .
Speaker #4: Thank you and welcome everyone to Albemarle's third quarter 2025 Earnings Conference call . Our earnings were released after market close yesterday , and you'll find the press release and earnings presentation posted to our website under the investor section at ALBEMARLE CORP .
Speaker #4: Joining me on the call today are Ken Masters , Chief Executive Officer . Neal Sheorey Chief Financial Officer . Mark Mummert , chief operations officer .
Speaker #4: And Eric Norris , chief commercial officer , are also available for Q&A . As a reminder , some of the statements made during this call , including our outlook guidance , expected company performance and strategic initiatives , may constitute forward looking statements .
Speaker #4: Please note the cautionary language about forward looking statements contained in our press release and earnings presentation . That same language also applies to this call .
Speaker #4: Please also note that some of our comments today refer to non-GAAP financial measures . Reconciliations can be found in our earnings materials . And now I'll turn the call over to Kent .
Speaker #5: Thank you . Meredith . In the third quarter , we reported net sales of $1.3 billion , including another record production period from our integrated lithium conversion network .
Speaker #5: Adjusted EBITDA reached $226 million , representing a 7% increase as cost and efficiency improvements more than compensated for lower year over year lithium pricing .
Speaker #5: We generated $356 million in cash from operations during the third quarter , marking a 57% year over year increase driven by higher EBITDA and disciplined cash management .
Speaker #5: We are enhancing our 2025 outlook considerations based on our year to date financial performance . Prevailing Lithium market pricing and stronger than expected energy storage sales volumes .
Speaker #5: We now anticipate full year 2025 corporate results to be toward the upper end of the previously published $9 per kilogram scenario ranges . Overall demand for lithium remains robust , up more than 30% year to date , supported by the energy transition and rising global demand for electric vehicles and grid storage .
Speaker #5: Notably , global EV sales have increased 30% year to date , led by China and EU battery electric vehicles . Grid storage growth was even more pronounced , climbing 105% year to date , with strong growth across all major markets globally .
Speaker #5: Additionally , we have made significant progress implementing cost and productivity improvements while reducing capital expenditures , capital expenditures for the year are now projected to be approximately $600 million .
Speaker #5: We expect to achieve full year cost and productivity improvements of around $450 million , surpassing the upper limit of our initial targets . Considering these factors , we now project positive free cash flow of 300 to $400 million in 2025 .
Speaker #5: Turning to slide five . Recent portfolio actions further demonstrate our commitment to long term value creation and enhanced financial flexibility . We recently announced two transactions .
Speaker #5: First , a definitive agreement with KPS Capital Partners to sell a controlling 51% stake in Ketchikan's Refining Catalyst business . Second , an agreement to sell Ketchikan's interest in the Eurocat joint venture to Axens .
Speaker #5: Both transactions are expected to close during the first half of 2026 . Together , these transactions are expected to generate approximately $660 million in pre-tax cash proceeds , giving us greater ability to deliver while also retaining exposure to future potential gains in refining catalyst business .
Speaker #5: This new structure positions the Refining Catalyst business to leverage KPS manufacturing expertise and access to capital to accelerate its growth opportunities . At the same time , we will be able to shift our attention to our core businesses , energy storage and specialties to set Albemarle up for long term success .
Speaker #5: This transaction reinforces our commitment to boosting shareholder value , improving financial flexibility , and maintaining Albemarle's strong competitive position . Neal will now provide additional details regarding financial performance and outlook .
Speaker #6: Thank you , Kent , and good morning , everyone . I will begin with our financial results for the third quarter as presented on slide six .
Speaker #6: Net sales for the quarter totaled $1.3 billion , a decrease from the prior year , primarily driven by lower lithium market prices . This decline was partially offset by higher volumes in both kitchen and energy storage .
Speaker #6: Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $226 million , representing a 7% increase year over year . This improvement was driven by disciplined cost management and productivity actions , which more than offset lower lithium market pricing .
Speaker #6: Our Our adjusted diluted loss per share was $0.19 . Turning to slide seven . I'll cover the drivers of our adjusted EBITDA performance year over year .
Speaker #6: adjusted EBITDA margin improved by approximately 150 basis points compared to last year . We reported a net loss of $1.72 per diluted share , excluding charges , the largest of which was the non-cash goodwill impairment related to Katchen .
Speaker #6: We saw solid growth in sales volumes in both our energy storage and kitchen businesses and our consistent focus on cost , discipline and productivity yielded positive results .
Speaker #6: By focusing on the actions in our control , we were able to offset lower pricing for lithium and spodumene . Turning to other segments , the specialties team delivered an impressive 35% increase in adjusted EBITDA , largely due to cost improvements across the board .
Speaker #6: In raw materials , manufacturing and freight . On the corporate side , we benefited from cost savings and favorable year over year foreign exchange movements .
Speaker #6: Turning to slide eight . As usual , we're sharing outlook scenarios based on recently observed lithium market prices . This slide shows a full company summary for each price scenario .
Speaker #6: Our outlook ranges remain the same as last quarter , but we've updated a few key points . Specifically , we now anticipate our full year 2025 results will approach the upper end of the $9 per kilogram lithium price scenario for total company sales and EBITDA .
Speaker #6: This reflects our strong performance so far this year , including cost controls , productivity gains and slightly better market pricing . We expect lithium market pricing to average about $9.50 per kilogram .
Speaker #6: This year , based on year to date actuals , and assuming current pricing persists for the remainder of November and December . Turning to slide nine for additional commentary by segment .
Speaker #6: First , in energy storage sales volume growth is expected to be up 10% or more year over year thanks to record integrated production , higher Spodumene sales , and reduced inventories .
Speaker #6: We are seeing most of that volume upside coming from a strong demand environment in China , where sales are at local market prices and not on long term agreements .
Speaker #6: As a result , we now expect approximately 45% of our 2025 lithium salts volumes to be sold on long term agreements with floors , primarily due to the mix impact of stronger than expected volumes in China .
Speaker #6: Our long term contracts continue to perform in line with our forecast Q4 EBITDA for energy storage is expected to be slightly higher sequentially .
Speaker #6: First , in terms of product mix , Q4 will have a greater proportion of higher margin lithium salt sales versus Spodumene sales . Second , Q4 is expected to benefit from current higher spodumene prices in JV equity earnings in specialties .
Speaker #6: We continue to expect modest volume growth year over year . Q4 net sales are expected to be similar to Q3 , but EBITDA is expected to be lower , primarily due to weaker demand in oil and gas applications .
Speaker #6: Finally , at Ketchikan , we we continue to expect a stronger Q4 due to higher CFT and FCC volumes . Please refer to our appendix slides for additional modeling considerations across the enterprise .
Speaker #6: Slide ten highlights our focus on running the business efficiently and converting earnings into cash . Year to date through Q3 , our EBITDA to operating cash flow conversion has been over 100% in Q3 , conversion was strong due mainly to inventory reductions , along with a modest sequential uptick in dividends from the joint venture .
Speaker #6: We continue to expect our full year cash conversion to average over 80% . The implication of that is that we expect Q4 conversion will be lower , mainly due to the timing of interest payments and higher working capital needs from increased revenues .
Speaker #6: Our strong cash conversion performance and reduced capital expenditures forecasts mean that we now expect to be well into positive free cash flow territory this year .
Speaker #6: Between 300 million and $400 million . Slide 11 provides a comprehensive overview of our cash position and capital allocation plans in the near term .
Speaker #6: We closed the quarter with $1.9 billion in cash . Moving forward , we intend to repay with cash on hand our Eurobond debt that matures later this month .
Speaker #6: Based on our free cash flow outlook , we expect modestly negative free cash flow in Q4 . Moving into 2026 , we expect to receive approximately $660 million of gross proceeds from the two transactions .
Speaker #6: Related to our Ketchum business . Considering these major cash items , we expect to have approximately $1.4 billion available for deployment across a set of disciplined and focused priorities .
Speaker #6: As shown on the slide with that , I'll turn it back to Ken to discuss the market outlook and provide updates on our operational execution .
Speaker #5: Thanks , Neil . The 2025 Global Lithium Supply demand balance had started to tighten with global lithium consumption growth up over 30% year to date , driven by robust demand from both EVs and grid storage .
Speaker #5: While supply growth has slowed in part due to recent lepidolite curtailments in China . On slide 12 , EV demand growth for 2025 continues , led by China and Europe .
Speaker #5: China EV sales are up 31% year over year, even after reaching over 50% market penetration. This growth is driven by strong demand for BEVs due to incentives supporting low-cost options.
Speaker #5: Europe is also up over 30% , supported by EU emissions targets . North America posted 11% growth , supported by Pre-buying , ahead of the 3D tax credit expiration .
Speaker #5: Turning to slide 13 . Global battery demand for stationary storage is up 105% year to date . China remains the largest market for stationary storage installations , with 60% growth year to date .
Speaker #5: And further policy support announced in the 15th five year Plan . Europe has shown similar policy support as the commitment to decarbonization drives demand for renewables , paired with storage .
Speaker #5: North America is the fastest growing region for stationary storage , up almost 150% year to date . As rising data center and AI investment in the United States increases the demand for electricity and grid stability globally .
Speaker #5: Data center electricity use is expected to more than double by 2030 , with the increasing need for grid resiliency . LFP batteries are well positioned to continue meeting s demand thanks to their low cost energy density and established manufacturing base .
Speaker #5: As a result , we expect lithium demand for stationary storage applications to increase more than two and a half times by 2030 . Advancing to slide 14 .
Speaker #5: I want to provide an update on our initiatives to sustain our competitive advantages through market cycles . First , on optimizing our conversion network , we set an energy storage sales volume growth target of 0 to 10% at the start of the year .
Speaker #5: We now expect to finish at or above the high end of that range with record production across our integrated conversion network . Increased sales and inventory reductions .
Speaker #5: Second , our cost and productivity programs continue to deliver . We began the year with a goal of 300 to $400 million in improvements .
Speaker #5: Today , we've achieved a $450 million run rate , exceeding the high end of our initial target . Recent projects have further reduced manufacturing costs and improved supply chain efficiency .
Speaker #5: Third , at the start of the year , we target a 50% year over year reduction in 2025 . Capital expenditures by focusing on high return , quick payback projects and optimizing existing scope .
Speaker #5: We now expect 2025 CapEx of about $600 million . Reflecting a 65% reduction year over year . Finally , our announced asset sales are expected to generate approximately $660 million in cash , providing significant additional financial flexibility .
Speaker #5: We continue to adapt , and a dynamic environment , adding new measures as needed . We're building a culture of continuous improvement and the mindset to identify opportunities to achieve savings and efficiencies .
Speaker #5: These actions are contributing to positive financial results . As shown on slide 15 . Our commitment to cost discipline is clearly reflected in our financials , sales , administrative and R&D expenses are down $166 million , or 22% , since last year .
Speaker #5: Cash flow has strengthened , driven by targeted cost and capital reductions and strong cash management . As of Q3 2025 , we're generating positive free cash flow year to date , and we expect 300 to $400 million for the full year .
Speaker #5: Our efforts have allowed us to shore up and maintain healthy corporate EBITDA margins in the 20% range , even as lithium prices declined thanks to these focused actions , we are well positioned to expand margins further as the market recovers with potential for adjusted EBITDA margins reaching 30% or more at $15 per kilogram .
Speaker #5: Lithium pricing . In summary , on slide 16 , Albemarle delivered strong third quarter performance while continuing to act decisively to maintain the company's industry leading position through the cycle and capture upside as markets stabilize or improve .
Speaker #5: We are maintaining our full year 2025 company outlook considerations with notable enhancements to energy storage volume growth , improved cost , and capital savings , and strong free cash flow generation .
Speaker #5: With our world class resources , process chemistry expertise and a strong balance sheet , we're well positioned to generate shareholder value through the cycle .
Speaker #5: I'm confident we're making the right moves to stay ahead and capitalize on long term growth opportunities . With that , I'll turn it over to the operator to take your questions .
Speaker #7: We will now move to our Q&A portion . If you would like to ask a question , please press star five to raise your hand .
Speaker #7: As a reminder , that is star five to raise your hand . Also , please bear in mind this Q&A session is limited to one question and one follow up per person .
Speaker #7: Our first question will come from Aleksey Yefremov from KeyBanc . Your line is open .
Speaker #8: Thank you . Good morning . Strong results . I wanted to ask you about dynamics at Taliesin . You mentioned you'll have better profitability because of higher spot prices , but how do you think this would evolve in in the first half of 26 ?
Speaker #8: Would you see higher premium costs ? Would that be offset by higher equity income or not ? If you could walk us through that dynamic for your lithium margins .
Speaker #9: Yeah . So maybe I'll start . Neal , you can a little bit of color to that . But so we're not going to we won't predict the price .
Speaker #9: So for lithium , for salt or spodumene , but the market is tightening . It is tight . It has moved up a little bit .
Speaker #9: So we're optimistic about that . But we don't plan on that and I don't from a standpoint I mean it it all depends whether if prices move up , the margin will either stay with salt or it moves over to sparge .
Speaker #9: And we're a bit indifferent because of the integrated network that we operate . So I .
Speaker #5: Don't know that there is a big difference between the two . Recently in the recent past , when prices moved , most of the margin moves to the resource .
Speaker #5: So sparge mean and and then I think the other part is a little bit about the Taliesin . And inventories and the way that that gets costed .
Speaker #5: Neal .
Speaker #6: Yeah . Alexei , I think .
Speaker #10: You're I think you're thinking about it , right . That in a rising spodumene price environment , we get one immediate benefit , which is obviously any sales or that Taliesin makes to our partner .
Speaker #10: We get some of that benefit immediately through our equity earnings . But then of course , our portion of the profit does go into inventory and it comes out over time as we consume the spodumene .
Speaker #10: So you're right , there will be some lag . It's usually 6 to 9 months that some of that comes through in our cost of sales .
Speaker #10: But whether it leads to margin compression or margin improvement really depends on what happens with salt prices , you know , six months from now .
Speaker #10: But I think you're thinking about it right . There is one component that we realize right away . And then there's another component that has to flow through our inventory .
Speaker #8: Great . Thanks a lot .
Speaker #7: Our next question will come from Jeffrey Zekauskas with J.P. Morgan . Your line is open .
Speaker #11: Thanks very much . You you used the $9 price as as a reference point in China today . Are we closer to 11 , 10 or 11 ?
Speaker #5: So , so yeah , you're probably closer to ten today . But as we look at it on a , on a full year basis , it's a kind of a nine , 950 , something like that .
Speaker #11: Okay . Are you giving any consideration to starting up any of your plants ? Where you've paused production or mothballed the plants ?
Speaker #5: So , so no , I don't know . I wouldn't say so . So we've we haven't brought that back . So we're just forecasting to the end of the year .
Speaker #5: So that's a couple of months . So and it would take us longer to bring those back on . So it's not in that it's not they're not in that scenario .
Speaker #5: And it would it would depend on the market and how that works . But that's that's not really the plan that as we think about it for next year either .
Speaker #11: Okay . Good . Thank you so much .
Speaker #7: Our next question will come from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer . Your line is open . It looks like we are having some technical difficulties with Colin .
Speaker #7: Your next question will come from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley . Your line is open .
Speaker #12: Thank you . Everyone . Just a quick question . When you talk about the full year adjusted EBITDA margin potential of 30% or greater at $15 a kg , are you speaking of the the the energy storage segment or the or the or the .
Speaker #12: Company overall ?
Speaker #5: The overall company okay .
Speaker #12: Thank you . And then if I could ask in the capital allocation slide , you talk about with the billion for paying down or deleveraging , but then there's also another some other language about liability management opportunity .
Speaker #12: What does that refer to .
Speaker #10: Yeah . Vincent I can I can cover that . You know I don't have specifics to share today , but we are obviously looking at a combination of things , not just gross delevering , but also anything else that we can do with our debt towers .
Speaker #10: Just across our entire debt stack . So that's what is meant by liability management . It might not always be gross debt deleveraging , but it might be actually just thinking about our debt towers and being responsible with that .
Speaker #12: Okay . Thank you very much .
Speaker #7: Our next question will come from John Roberts with Mizuho . Your line is open .
Speaker #13: Thank you . Actually , this is Edwin Rodriguez for , for for John . I . So when you look at EV demand , do you have a good sense of how much is energy storage versus EV and how do you see those percentages moving over the medium term ?
Speaker #5: So yeah , we we do . We have a pretty good view . And those are reported independently . So we're showing the numbers that we're showing are independent of those .
Speaker #5: So we think that there is some mix because it is kind of a base . It's the same base technology that goes into both .
Speaker #5: But we feel like we understand where it's going and what the markets are doing . So it's I think energy , the fixed storage is about a quarter of the market today .
Speaker #5: And it's growing at a couple times the rate . But it's we still see it probably being long term . The market is more EV oriented than fixed storage .
Speaker #5: But that's the dynamic . And you just look at the math , right . If it's a quarter of the market , maybe it gets to half .
Speaker #5: I'm not sure . And over time it will depend a little bit on substitute technologies . I think fixed storage is more exposed to substitutes than BEVs .
Speaker #5: So I think that has to play out over the next decade to see where that really ends up .
Speaker #13: Okay . Thank you .
Speaker #7: Our next question will come from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank . Your line is open .
Speaker #14: Thank you . Good morning Ken , for you and Eric on Chinese Lepidolite how much supply do you think is being currently curtailed and versus the high of production ?
Speaker #14: How much is production down today versus that high ?
Speaker #5: Yeah . So maybe Eric can give us some details on it . Overall , it's not been a huge impact . It there has been some impact .
Speaker #5: They've come out of the market and come back in . That's probably been the bigger piece there . There are a number of plants that are looking for permits and but they are operating through that .
Speaker #5: That's our understanding of that . They need to get new permits . They've applied for those and they're allowed to operate through that .
Speaker #5: So Eric , maybe you can give us some numbers or some the scope of what has come out and not come back on .
Speaker #10: Yeah , I think since .
Speaker #15: The middle of the year , David , about a third of the production was impacted through . Reopening exercise and or as to idle for a period of time .
Speaker #15: Some of that is we don't know all the cause for that . I mean , there's there's a lot of discussion about what's happening in China around policy , but nonetheless , that's what we've observed .
Speaker #15: That's about eight different lepidolite operations , including the largest , which is Catl . It's a reduction of about 30,000 tons annually . But but I think the question is how long they remain down as they go through permitting .
Speaker #15: It's in the scheme of the market . If they should , they come back . You're only talking about a couple percent of supply over the course of a year .
Speaker #15: So it's a it's a minor blip and we'll continue to watch it carefully .
Speaker #14: They're very good interest on lithium demand . You didn't include you did not include your slide from last last time . Lithium demand forecast .
Speaker #14: For 2030 . Has there been any change to lithium demand outlook . If it hasn't been , has is it bias moved to the upper end of that range , i.e. 3 million to 3 million tons or above 3 million tons or above ?
Speaker #14: Given what you've seen in the last , maybe 6 to 9 months here . Thank you .
Speaker #5: Yeah . So we actually we didn't we didn't show that . I would say it hasn't really changed , but it is probably moved up a little bit within that range .
Speaker #5: If you recall , we had a pretty big range because of some of the uncertainties . And then I think the both on both the EV and on fixed storage , it's probably more demand .
Speaker #5: I think it is a demand story and that's higher than we were thinking about at the beginning of the year . So it's been it's been a positive surprise .
Speaker #5: The range stays the same . It's well within that range . But I would say it has moved up a little bit .
Speaker #7: Our next question will come from Josh Spector with UBS . Your line is open .
Speaker #16: Hi . Good morning . It's Chris Perella on for Josh . As I think about the ramp of the extra training greenbushes and your production and La Negra , how much could your resource production be up in 2026 with just the the scheduling of those ramps and then also do you have a first right of refusal on Wodgina ?
Speaker #16: And are you guys discussing the future of that asset and the ownership with your partner down there ?
Speaker #5: Okay , so first , I guess on the assets . So La Negra is is is pretty much ramped at capacity today . We have some marginal improvement .
Speaker #5: We can do that as a result of solar yield. And as that worked its way through the process in the Salar.
Speaker #5: So we'll see better feedstock at Leningrad . And that'll give us a little more capacity . But it's incremental compared to the overall ramp that we've been through the last couple of years .
Speaker #5: And then DGP three at Taliesin will start up at the end of this year , and then we've got it kind of planned to ramp through next year .
Speaker #5: So it's kind of a ramp through the year . It will depend on how well we execute on that . And how fast it comes up .
Speaker #5: But we kind of we tend to straight line it through the year to kind of more or less full capacity by the end of the year .
Speaker #5: And then you can do the math to see what that gets you throughout the year . And oh , yeah , so you're asking about wodgina .
Speaker #5: So look , I'm not going to comment on the process that's happening down there . You probably you can read about it in the Australian press that's doing that .
Speaker #5: What's happening there . So we we talk to our partner . We're aware of what they're doing . So we'll see . We'll let that that has to play out .
Speaker #5: .
Speaker #15: Another feature to to bear in mind as we , as we look to next year , Chris , is that a good part of our growth this year is referenced in the prepared remarks , has been that we've taken a lot of inventory out of our supply chain this year , and that would largely be spot inventory in the case of energy storage that has fed growth , that is one time in nature .
Speaker #15: And so we don't get the benefit of the inventory reduction next year . So the factors that have been described are going to help to offset that .
Speaker #15: It's important to keep in mind , as you think about next year .
Speaker #16: No , that's very helpful . Thanks , Neil .
Speaker #7: Your next question will come from Christopher Parkinson with Wolfe Research . Your line is open .
Speaker #17: Hey , great . Thank you . This is Harris for Chris . Just curious , maybe if we could talk about the stronger volumes this quarter .
Speaker #17: How much of that was just you being opportunistic on spot sales because of price volatility ? And I guess dovetailing off of the last question , how should we be thinking about the impact on volume growth next year versus the higher baseline ?
Speaker #17: Thank you .
Speaker #5: Yeah . So look it's I mean there is some us being opportunistic Eric just described that inventory reduction . So that's part of our cash management initiatives we were doing to drive that .
Speaker #5: But it did give us a little extra growth this year . And we won't have that opportunity next year because we've driven inventories down .
Speaker #5: But the market has been the market strong , both demand and pricing is a little stronger than it has been . So we're optimistic about that .
Speaker #5: We're not we're not counting on it , but we're optimistic about that . And it's been a bit of a demand story I think , over the last quarter or maybe even a little bit longer .
Speaker #5: It's stronger . And both and that's both EVs as well as fixed storage . Fixed storage has been the big upside . Surprise .
Speaker #5: This year . And it's been very strong . And we see that continuing .
Speaker #17: Great . And also just wanted to touch on you know there's been a lot of news flow about critical minerals support . We saw what happened with Lithium Americas .
Speaker #17: Just curious to hear what the latest you're hearing is . And in the event we start to see maybe the government engage a little bit more concretely on a localized energy storage infrastructure , maybe just some thoughts on the scenario planning you're doing in terms of how that might shift your strategy .
Speaker #17: Either way .
Speaker #5: Right . So I would say , look , look , we're very happy to see the government focused on critical minerals . The US government .
Speaker #5: But other governments around the world , we think that's important . We've been saying that for years , that it's important to build out a globally diverse , competitive lithium supply chain and to see governments focused on that is fantastic .
Speaker #5: I'm not going to speculate on what , you know could happen with the governments . We're talking to governments all over the world all the time , everywhere that we operate .
Speaker #5: But there won't be one solution . So it'll be a mix of things that'll that'll help help the market in the West get to reinvestment levels .
Speaker #5: So tax incentives , trade policy , direct investment , maybe . I mean , I think it will be a mix and they'll have to be a combination of some public private partnerships to drive this because it's a it's a big problem .
Speaker #5: But we've been talking about it for a couple of years now . And we're happy to see governments focused on it .
Speaker #7: Your next question will come from Lawrence Alexander with Jefferies . Your line is open .
Speaker #18: So as you look at the way policy is shifting , both in Latin America and in the US , what do you see as kind of the appropriate return hurdles for you to engage in new projects as opposed to just focus on your existing assets and or opening up Kings Mountain ?
Speaker #5: Yes . I don't think our return criteria has changed , right ? We've we've we've been pretty consistent about that . The issue has been with the pricing that we see in the market .
Speaker #5: We can't get those returns , which is why you don't you don't see us investing . So we and we've been focused on kind of balance sheet cash driving costs out of the business so we can compete at that lower level .
Speaker #5: And look , our view is and we've said this , we don't we're not able to predict the lithium price . And we're not we're not going to depend on that .
Speaker #5: So we have to be able to compete through the bottom of the cycle , which is why you've seen us so focused on cost and cash and getting our business in a position to do that .
Speaker #5: We're getting there . We still have room to go . And if the market but our view is we we plan for the bottom of the cycle .
Speaker #5: But stay agile so we can pivot when the market gives us that opportunity to invest . We still have good investment opportunities . You mentioned Kings Mountain .
Speaker #5: We have we have very good resources that we can still leverage as we go forward . And conversion is still a possibility . But the economics aren't .
Speaker #5: They're still not there today . For Western economics , for conversion . Western conversion economics . .
Speaker #18: And is your cost structure at the point where if prices do not improve next year , your cash flow , your free cash flow , positive ?
Speaker #5: Yeah . So we're not forecasting next year yet . So we'll do that next quarter . But we're in a look . We've driven cost out .
Speaker #5: We've we I feel pretty good that we built a cost out mentality . And around productivity particularly in our operations I think we can be better at it from an overhead and back office .
Speaker #5: But we're working on that . We've made good strides around that and we'll continue to drive that . So we'll continue to drive cost and work on our cost position .
Speaker #5: Look , it's still a new market and it's going to be volatile and dynamic . And we have to be able to ride that on to capture the upside , but work our way through the downside .
Speaker #5: So I don't want to forecast we're not going to forecast next year . Today . But we we continue to stay focused on that .
Speaker #5: On that cost out and that will that will drive the result for next year and years . Going forward . But I think you should think of our business as that .
Speaker #5: We make sure that we can ride through the down cycles and then take advantage of the up cycles .
Speaker #7: Your next question will come from Patrick Cunningham with Citi . Your line is open .
Speaker #12: Hi . Good morning . Thanks for taking my questions . And just a couple related follow ups to your last comments . I guess anything else you're looking at in terms of productivity savings program into next year ?
Speaker #12: And what would be the size and sort of the incremental carryover ? I know you reached run rate sometime in the middle of the year .
Speaker #5: Yeah . So Neil can talk about the run rate carryover , but we're going to we continue to have productivity programs and they go across the breadth of our business .
Speaker #5: We are our programs around operations are the most mature . And it's not surprising given our legacy as a specialty chemical company . But we are .
Speaker #5: That's pretty mature . And we go down the range , our supply chain is a little less mature . Back office is even less mature than that .
Speaker #5: But we're building the capability and leveraging off of the program . We have in manufacturing . So you'll always see us have productivity programs and goals , even if the market is hot and on fire , we're still going to be pushing to take cost and productivity out of the business .
Speaker #5: That's just I think that's just going to be a feature of our business and that that should be a feature of a healthy business .
Speaker #10: Yeah . And Patrick , maybe the other thing I can add is just to reiterate . So we see line of sight to a $450 million run rate in cost and productivity savings this year .
Speaker #10: So obviously we'll have to see how we finish up the year in terms of the actual savings . But you're already seeing those savings come through in our SG&A line and our R&D line .
Speaker #10: And so on . But obviously , some of those will continue to roll into 2026 , and we'll give you an update on that with the next quarter .
Speaker #10: Once we finish , finish the year . But let me give you an example of what you can expect to hear as you get into 2026 .
Speaker #10: Just a small example , though , is that we continue to ramp our facilities to full rates . That's a perfect example of the productivity measures that we're we're really working on .
Speaker #10: Kent kind of highlighted that in in Chile , where almost to the the kind of top end of what we could do with , with our facility in China is I think about a year ahead of schedule in terms of its ramp , and its getting almost up to to full rates as well .
Speaker #10: So you can expect that kind of continuing to sweat the assets as , as kind of a key theme in our , in our productivity on top of any other additional cost actions that we can take as well .
Speaker #12: Got it . That's helpful . And then maybe just a quick one on bromine . It seems like there's some strong demand there in areas like electronics , but maybe some offsets that have pulled performance down .
Speaker #12: And you've seen some normalization in prices . How have sort of the bromine supply and demand trended throughout the balance of the year .
Speaker #12: And what sort of outlook are you seeing for the fourth quarter ?
Speaker #15: Yep . So this is Eric . First on the demand side . You're right . It's still a mixed market reflecting probably the the many the GDP oriented market's growth markets that we serve .
Speaker #15: So for instance you mentioned electronics pharmaceutical . Those have been stronger markets . Weaker markets have been building construction and oil and gas of late stronger in the earlier in the year .
Speaker #15: But with the drop in the price of oil a little weaker in the second half of the year, we saw, if you look at the supply side and the tightness or balance of supply and demand, in the middle of the year, we saw some tightness.
Speaker #15: You may have seen if you follow bromine , elemental bromine prices , particularly out of China , there's an index you can follow .
Speaker #15: You've seen that price rise . It's now started to come down again as the market has become more balanced . On the one hand , on the other hand , we we're headed in a time of year .
Speaker #15: We're seasonally production is some seasonal production in India and in China that comes offline due to the winter months . And as that happens , I don't think we're going to get to a tight situation , but we'll remain fairly balanced .
Speaker #15: So we we're not looking at this as being supremely oversupplied or under-supplied . Therefore , dynamic from a price standpoint . On elemental bromine at the moment , fairly balanced as we go into the end of the year .
Speaker #12: Great . Thank you .
Speaker #7: Your next question will come from Rock Hoffman with Bank of America Securities . Your line is open .
Speaker #16: Hi .
Speaker #19: I guess does the energy storage volume be contain the pull forward and just given the stronger near-term volumes volume assumptions , where would you expect the contract spot mix to shift in a four Q and thereafter ?
Speaker #5: Yeah . So the pull forward as you describe , I think that's mostly inventory , right . So we had inventory that we were able to use that the market strong .
Speaker #5: So we're selling into a strong market . But it's not we're pulling next quarter's volume forward . But we are bringing to some degree capacity forward by selling inventories that we had .
Speaker #5: It's also just us being leaner on cash and inventory . I yeah . So us being leaner and operating around that , that's the piece .
Speaker #5: The other piece , I guess we saw from a pull forward would be the expiration of the 30 D tax credits in the US .
Speaker #5: So there was a bit of a rush for people to buy EVs in the US . It's about 10% of the market , so it's not going to be dramatic overall .
Speaker #5: But that is one where demand did get pulled forward a little bit .
Speaker #19: Understood . And just as a follow up .
Speaker #10: Yeah . And and rock .
Speaker #16: Yep .
Speaker #10: I'm sorry Rock I think you had asked about contract spot mix going forward . I just wanted to add 11. , which is look , I think , you know , Kent had mentioned in the , in the prepared remarks that our contracts continue to perform .
Speaker #10: We don't have any major contracts that are rolling off until you get towards the end of 2026 . But look , the demand has been so strong in China in particular , where we don't sell volume on long term contracts .
Speaker #10: So if that trend continues into 2026 , just based on mix alone , you can probably expect that our 45% that we're at this year will tick down just because of where the product is going .
Speaker #10: And the fact that it's not going on these long term contracts , but it's not a a shift in our long term contracts .
Speaker #10: It's really more about geographic mix of sales . .
Speaker #19: Makes sense . Just as a quick follow up , any any preliminary thoughts on 2026 CapEx ? And I guess more broadly , when you would need to turn on CapEx in order to incentivize any meaningful volume growth after 2026 .
Speaker #5: Yeah . So I think I mean , look , we've been we've worked our CapEx down and we've tried to be very thoughtful about that .
Speaker #5: So we would anticipate unless we unless we pivot to do some investments , we're not I'm not thinking of right now . We will continue at that run rate or maybe a little bit lower .
Speaker #5: We'll continue to work on that to get it down . We don't think we're shorting our assets with the cuts that we've made .
Speaker #5: We're just getting we're getting more efficient at it , but we're being thoughtful and careful . That's why we lag down slowly . I would say , particularly on maintenance capital .
Speaker #5: And so without forecasting , not forecasting , some investment that we might make as a result of the market taking off , you see us in a range where we are maybe another another leg down , but the legs are incremental now , not not we're not going to make 50% reductions within , you know , that's that's not in the , in the cards .
Speaker #5: There may be 10% something like that .
Speaker #20: Thank you .
Speaker #7: Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets . Your line is open .
Speaker #21: Great . Thanks for taking my question . I guess I'm just curious to get your thoughts on Spodumene and the impact on pricing .
Speaker #21: So it looks like prices are for for both carbon and hydroxide are kind of settling out at marginal cost levels . Would you agree with that ?
Speaker #21: And would it take sparging maybe to go up to 1200 or 1500 to see some , some more robust activity in lithium salt pricing and if so , what would drive that ?
Speaker #21: You , you know , do you feel that supply and demand is balanced or tight or or loose or maybe you can just comment on that relationship ?
Speaker #21: Thanks .
Speaker #5: Okay . Right . So yeah , we commented on it just a little bit earlier , but but I think you're probably right .
Speaker #5: So conversion right now is that basically marginal cost . Of conversion . And in China . And then when you see price move , most of the value and the price movement , the conversion stays at that cost .
Speaker #5: That marginal cost . And it moves to the resource . The margin moves to the resource . So that's that's kind of what we've seen in the for I guess for at least a year now , most of the value moves to the resource because you have overcapacity for conversion in China , primarily .
Speaker #5: It's a little bit different when you start talking outside of China . But the majority of the market is is in China . And but the market is getting is getting a little tight .
Speaker #5: I think that's why you see prices move up. It's probably a bit more. It's a demand story, but supply has not kept up.
Speaker #5: Demand stronger than we thought . And supply growth is less than we thought . And that's tightening . It . Inventories are coming down in both salts and in in the system throughout the system .
Speaker #5: So I think it's a demand story I guess maybe it's both because supply has not been as strong as we were originally thinking .
Speaker #5: And demand has been stronger . So the market is tightening . So it's a supply . Demand piece . But all the value at the moment does move to Spodumene .
Speaker #21: Great . Thanks for that . And then could you also comment on your potential commercialization in the energy storage market . What are you seeing there and what are you kind of expect over the next few years from a demand standpoint ?
Speaker #21: Thanks .
Speaker #5: Well , it's the same supply chain and value chain as it is for batteries for for EVs , for the most part . I mean , there are people specializing in that .
Speaker #5: And and the core technology is it pretty much the same thing from our standpoint ? It's about the same . We sell the same material .
Speaker #5: It's just which value chain it goes to many cases . Most cases it's the same customer that that's playing in both energy storage and the electric vehicle market .
Speaker #5: But the the growth has been has been very strong . A lot of that is grid stability . Well , it's about renewables and storage to go with it in Europe and China to some degree .
Speaker #5: But it's also about grid stability and data centers . You can say artificial intelligence . But that system is what's driving it , particularly in North America .
Speaker #5: So it's a pretty dynamic market . You always get the question or you think about it is , is lithium ion technology the right technology for that ?
Speaker #5: I mean , it's what's available today at scale . Supply chain has been built out and it still has a significant cost advantage over other technology like sodium ion .
Speaker #5: So they don't have scale sodium ion yet . And the cost is still significantly higher . So I think in the near term it's going to be mostly FFP technology long term .
Speaker #5: You probably see sodium coming into the mix , but I think we're kind of forecasting about 80% of that stays stays with lithium ion technology .
Speaker #7: Your next question will come from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets . Your line is open .
Speaker #12: Hi .
Speaker #22: Good morning Kent . You've talked about for a while and today about really being able to ride out the cycle here . What do you think Albemarle is going forward ?
Speaker #22: You know, if you're not really doing any growth beyond CP3 and some conversion in China, and you're looking at taking CapEx maybe down a level, the economics don't justify new builds or new capacity.
Speaker #22: What is in this growing , rising sector of EV and S ? What will Albemarle be ? Are you worried about not growing proportionally with the industry ?
Speaker #5: Yeah . So look , we we a lot of the work that we're doing is to preserve that growth optionality as we go forward .
Speaker #5: But we need to see good business cases in order to do it . So my view is we're being disciplined . Look , we probably are risking some of the upside by being taking the approach that we have , but we are making sure we can go through the bottom of the cycle and then take advantage of that uptick .
Speaker #5: So we will capture growth . We have opportunities . We think resources . The key to that , and we have some of the best resources on the planet .
Speaker #5: So it is about optionality . And we're having you know , we have to manage our balance sheet . And the market opportunity out there .
Speaker #5: And we don't want to get caught flat footed . But I think we're what we're trying to build is a is a business that is agile .
Speaker #5: And we'll be able to pivot to do those investment projects when we see the right economics .
Speaker #22: Okay . My second question is maybe a little strange , but I mean , we've seen a lot of good data out , a lot of different industry sources about the acceleration and growth rates in S .
Speaker #22: Can you talk about on the ground what you're actually seeing , you know , is the hype real ? Is it being exaggerated ?
Speaker #22: How much tangible evidence do you have of accelerating growth rates . And yes , you can share .
Speaker #5: Well , Eric can comment on that . But I think the most tangible is , is the volumes that we see going into it .
Speaker #5: I mean , that is not I mean , they are shipping and going into batteries . So that's not forecast . That's legitimate .
Speaker #5: That's real . So and so I think that I mean , that market is there . You can comment on more specifics .
Speaker #15: Yeah . It's it's akin , Joel , to the last question that came up around where , you know , what's going on in this market .
Speaker #15: And is it a different channel . It's not it's , it's it's the same big battery names that that are in the EV space .
Speaker #15: And I guess there are a couple of things we see certainly in China , which is the largest market and where and really the home of , of LFP technology .
Speaker #15: We're seeing a lot of in all of our discussions with both cathode , particularly LFP cathode and battery producers in China . Those cell lines are at full utilization now to meet the demand .
Speaker #15: Both domestically in China and abroad . The interesting thing about the grid storage market is it looks a little different from a global perspective than than the EV market , meaning it's not all just about Europe , China and the US .
Speaker #15: It's the rest of the world . And the grid demands grid stability , renewable power . Are are important , whereas in North America , of course , the big driver is more about AI data centers .
Speaker #15: And even now , pivoting to the US , we have a great number of battery partners partnered with OEMs here in the US who are taking those same facilities and looking to retrofit them to make s technology , whether that's moving to a lower nickel technology or to or to an technology , and then finally , we're seeing a big uptick .
Speaker #15: And this is both an EV driver and an S driver amongst all cathode producers . Certainly in China . But now outside of China , the Koreans , the Japanese , they're all aggressively pursuing their own in-house technology programs .
Speaker #15: And it's it's both EVs , but probably more importantly of late , that's ticked up because of S . So those are the sort of on the ground commentary of what's what's driving this enthusiasm for the space .
Speaker #7: Your next question will come from Abigail Egberts with Wells Fargo . Your line is open .
Speaker #23: Hi there . Thanks for taking my question . I understand you're not guiding to 2026 , obviously , but I was just wondering about your expectations for underlying EV demand as we look to next year .
Speaker #23: Thanks .
Speaker #5: Eric , do you want to go ?
Speaker #15: You said you're curious about underlying EV demand for for next year . I think .
Speaker #23: Yeah .
Speaker #15: We continue to have this . Go ahead . Sorry . Did I cut okay . This is a part and parcel of the long term forecast .
Speaker #15: We did not put in the slide deck . We have in prior decks . It's the it's the growth in the market we see of two and a half times between now and 2030 .
Speaker #15: Of the total market consumption for lithium, while we spent a lot of time in the last question talking about AI data centers and grid storage demand, that's about 25% of demand.
Speaker #15: The well over close to 70% of demand in the space or more is for lithium is driven by EVs . We can , you know , China continues to be strong .
Speaker #15: The interesting thing about China is , is that it is now over 50% . It is well below the tipping point from a cost standpoint .
Speaker #15: So the pack costs are well below $100 in some cases , half that level . And so that's producing a car that's now more competitive than internal combustion engine with an incredible amount of vehicle choice to consumers .
Speaker #15: There . And and and healthy demand for both battery electric and plug in hybrid vehicles . Now is that market gets bigger . The percent growth rate obviously gets smaller because it's just the law of large numbers , if you will .
Speaker #15: The growth is still the penetration . We still expect to continue . We're encouraged most recently and expect to continue into next year .
Speaker #15: In Europe . Now , Europe has there's a lot of discussion about the long range emission targets , and we have to just remain vigilant as to what the policy decision there is in the short term .
Speaker #15: There's been a commitment to the next step in that CO2 reduction across the fleet . On average . And while some , some , some benefit was given to go slower this year , they still have to hit an average three year target , which means they're going to have to go faster from a from a supply side to produce such vehicles .
Speaker #15: In the coming years . Probably our most question not questionable , but difficult to predict market would for EVs would be the US .
Speaker #15: All of those technology trends that I described should be favorable to cost and adoption . Even here in the US . We're at that tipping point on on pack costs .
Speaker #15: However , policy and other things are may not be supportive of that . So we just have to wait and see . However , that is the smallest of the three major markets .
Speaker #15: It's only about 10% of the lithium or EV or lithium demand , are set , not set in that rate of EVs are in the US .
Speaker #15: So that outlook we see flowing into next year as well .
Speaker #7: Your next question will come from David Deckelbaum with TD Cowan . Your line is open .
Speaker #24: Thanks a lot for taking my questions this morning . I did want to follow up maybe with Neil just post your cat and catch in partial monetization .
Speaker #24: You know , obviously a significant amount of capital coming in . One I'm trying to think about how much capital you'd be saving on the CapEx side .
Speaker #24: 26 just from divesting those assets . But but more importantly , once the proceeds come in in the first half of 26 , I think you've talked about it increasing your ability to deliver .
Speaker #24: What do you see doing with those proceeds near term , or is this just become a cash hoard to to opportunistically look at the balance sheet ?
Speaker #10: Yeah . Hi there . David . So let me if I hit all your questions here , I think in terms of I think you were asking what is the CapEx from Kachin ?
Speaker #10: I think on a going forward basis , you should think about roughly 10% of our CapEx is related to Ketchikan , and that will be what would what would potentially come off as we get into next year .
Speaker #10: Now , we obviously have to see when the transaction will close . So there might be a little bit of catch in CapEx in our numbers next year .
Speaker #10: But maybe just for the first half of the year this year , Ketchens CapEx admittedly was a little bit higher than that . That was mainly because Ketchikan was finishing its own growth investment called Zsm five .
Speaker #10: That project is done , but we did have a little bit higher CapEx through the year related to catching in terms of I think the second part of your question is sort of what are what are we going to do with that cash ?
Speaker #10: Look, you know, I think we have always said that deleveraging is one of our top priorities as a company, and we're at that point now.
Speaker #10: We obviously have enough cash on hand to take or repay the debt that's coming due here in a few weeks . That will happen in the normal course , and I think what you can expect is that once we have line of sight to getting to the proceeds around Ketchikan .
Speaker #10: out So I can't give you any more specifics around timing , but obviously we're developing our plans now .
Speaker #10: Look , I think that's when we'll get a lot more serious about acting with that cash . We're not going to necessarily let it sit on the balance sheet for too long , and we have some thoughts around how we want to do that with regards to Delevering as well as the other capital priorities that we had on our on our slide in the deck .
Speaker #24: I appreciate that . And maybe just a second one for for Neil or Kent . You know , obviously super commendable job this year .
Speaker #24: Just getting the free cash neutrality I know part of the benefit was or you did have some help from a customer prepayment . But I'll be at the at the bottom of a pricing cycle here as we go into 26 .
Speaker #24: I know a lot of people have asked about the free cash outlook , but I guess in isolation , one one tailwind that I am curious on is just the outlook for dividends from Taliesin , which I guess as I think about CGP completing and coming online , should that be a tailwind going into 26 , in your view ?
Speaker #10: Yeah , David , I can I can start on that . So we kind of covered that a little bit earlier in the Q&A just to go back to that .
Speaker #10: Is that CGP three is basically in the tail end of the investment part of things . And it will start to ramp as we go through 2026 .
Speaker #10: But you should think about kind of the majority of 2026 really being the ramp period for that , for that facility . So , you know , two big things .
Speaker #10: I think that the Taliesin dividends will be dependent on is obviously number one , how well or quickly that unit ramps up . And we're working with the JV right now to understand what that's going to look like as they tip over into start up .
Speaker #10: But then the other part , of course , is pricing . And so it's a little early for me . We never do try to call pricing .
Speaker #10: It's early for me to to call pricing for spodumene across the balance of 2026 . We're also working with the JV also through their budgeting to understand , you know , the levers that the JV has as well .
Speaker #10: You know , all the partners are very interested in dividends out of the JV , especially as we get through this investment phase .
Speaker #7: Thank you . That is all the time we have for questions . I will now pass it back to Kent Masters for closing remarks .
Speaker #5: Thank you . Operator . In closing , I want to thank you all for your continued support and trust in Albemarle . Our strong results this quarter , enhanced our outlook for 2025 and ongoing focus on operational excellence .
Speaker #5: Position us well for the future with our world class resources leading process chemistry and commitment to customer success . Were confident in our ability to create lasting value for our shareholders and seize opportunities ahead .
Speaker #5: We appreciate your partnership and look forward to connecting at our upcoming events . Stay safe and thank you .