Q3 2025 Ardagh Metal Packaging SA Earnings Call

October 23, 2025

Speaker #3: Welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. quarterly results conference call . Today's conference is being recorded . At this time , I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Steven Lyons .

Operator 3: Welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Quarterly Results Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stephen Lyons. Please go ahead.

Operator: Welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Quarterly Results Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stephen Lyons. Please go ahead.

Speaker #3: Please go ahead .

Speaker #4: Thank you . Operator and welcome , everybody . Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. third quarter 2025 Earnings call , which follows the earlier publication of Amps earnings release for the third quarter .

Stephen Lyons: Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's Q3 2025 earnings call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the third quarter. I am joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer, and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer. Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release and related materials for the third quarter can be found on AMP's website at ir.ardaghmetalpackaging.com. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release. I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

Stephen Lyons: Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the third quarter. I am joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer, and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer. Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release and related materials for the third quarter can be found on AMP's website at ir.ardaghmetalpackaging.com. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release. I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

Speaker #4: I am joined today by Oliver Graham , AMP's chief executive officer , and Stefan Schellinger , AMP's chief financial officer . Before moving to your questions , we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook .

Speaker #4: AMP's earnings release and related materials for the third quarter can be found on AMP's website at . IRP . Remarks today will include certain forward looking statements and include use of non IFRS financial measures .

Speaker #4: Actual results could vary materially from such statements . Please review the details of AMP's forward looking statements . Disclaimer and reconciliation of non financial measures to IFRS .

Speaker #4: Financial measures in AMP's earnings release . I will now turn the call over to Oliver . Graham .

Speaker #5: Thanks, Stephen. We delivered a strong performance in the third quarter, with adjusted EBITDA growth of 6% versus the prior year quarter, or 3% on a constant currency basis.

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Stephen. We delivered a strong performance in Q3, with Adjusted EBITDA growth of 6% versus the prior-year quarter, or 3% on a constant currency basis. Our Adjusted EBITDA results of $208 million was towards the upper end of our guidance, with both segments performing broadly in line with our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA growth in the quarter was supported by shipments growth in Europe and North America, lower operational and overhead costs, as well as favorable category mix. Although global volumes were below our expectations in the quarter, on a year-to-date basis, they are up over 3% versus the prior year. The beverage can continues to benefit from innovation and share gains in our customers' packaging mix, underpinning our growth expectations.

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Stephen. We delivered a strong performance in the third quarter with an adjusted EBITDA growth of 6% versus the prior year quarter, or 3% on a constant currency basis. Our adjusted EBITDA result of $208 million was towards the upper end of our guidance, with both segments performing broadly in line with our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA growth in the quarter was supported by shipments growth in Europe and North America, lower operational and overhead costs, as well as favorable category mix. Although global volumes were below our expectations in the quarter, on a year-to-date basis, they are up over 3% versus the prior year. The beverage can continues to benefit from innovation and share gains in our customers' packaging mix, underpinning our growth expectations.

Speaker #5: Our adjusted EBITDA result of $208 million was towards the upper end of our guidance , with both segments performing broadly in line with our expectations .

Speaker #5: Adjusted EBITDA growth in the quarter was supported by shipments growth in Europe and North America , lower operational and overhead costs , as well as favorable category mix .

Speaker #5: Although global volumes were below our expectations in the quarter , on a year to date basis , they are up over 3% versus the prior year .

Speaker #5: The beverage can continues to benefit from innovation and share gains in our customers packaging mix . Underpinning our growth expectations . We continued to progress our sustainability agenda and our recently published sustainability report highlights strong progress towards our targets in 2024 , including a 10% annual reduction in scope one and two emissions and a 14% reduction in scope three emissions .

Oliver Graham: We continue to progress our sustainability agenda, and our recently published sustainability report highlights strong progress towards our targets in 2024, including a 10% annual reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions and a 14% reduction in Scope 3 emissions, with Scope 3 emissions now 25% below the 2020 baseline. We anticipate further good progress in 2025 and beyond. Turning to AMP's Q3 results by segment. In Europe, third quarter revenue increased by 9% to $625 million, or by 3% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2024, principally due to volume growth. Shipments grew by 2% for the quarter, driven by growth in energy drinks and faster-growing categories such as ciders, ready-to-drink teas and coffees, wines, and water. This growth offset continued weakness in the beer category, which represents over 40% of our European portfolio.

Oliver Graham: We continue to progress our sustainability agenda, and our recently published sustainability report highlights strong progress towards our targets in 2024, including a 10% annual reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions, and a 14% reduction in Scope 3 emissions, with Scope 3 emissions now 25% below the 2020 baseline. We anticipate further good progress in 2025 and beyond. Turning to AMP's Q3 results by segment. In Europe, third quarter revenue increased by 9% to $625 million, or by 3% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2024, principally due to volume growth. Shipments grew by 2% for the quarter, driven by growth in energy drinks and faster-growing categories such as ciders, ready-to-drink teas, coffees, wines, and water.

Speaker #5: With scope three emissions now 25% below the 2020 baseline . We anticipate further good progress in 2025 and beyond . Turning to AMP's Q3 results by segment .

Speaker #5: In Europe , third quarter revenue increased by 9% to $625 million , or by 3% , on a constant currency basis , compared with the same period in 2020 .

Speaker #5: Four , principally due to volume growth . Shipments grew by 2% for the quarter , driven by growth in energy drinks and faster growing categories such as ciders .

Speaker #5: Ready to drink teas and coffees , wines and water . This growth offset continued weakness in the beer category , which represents over 40% of our European portfolio .

Oliver Graham: This growth offset continued weakness in the beer category, which represents over 40% of our European portfolio. Q3 Adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 4% to $82 million, in line with expectation. On a constant currency basis, Adjusted EBITDA reduced by 4% due to input cost recovery headwinds, partly offset by the contribution from higher volumes and favorable category mix. Given the continued softness in the beer category, we now expect full year shipment growth for Europe of low single-digit % for full year 2025. As we look into 2026, we continue to expect the market to grow around 3% to 4% and for our volumes to broadly match that growth.

Speaker #5: Third quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 4% to $82 million, in line with expectations on a constant currency basis. Adjusted EBITDA reduced by 4% due to input costs and recovery headwinds, partly offset by the contribution from higher volumes and a favorable category mix.

Oliver Graham: Third quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 4% to $82 million, in line with expectation. On a constant currency basis, adjusted EBITDA reduced by 4% due to input cost recovery headwinds, partly offset by the contribution from higher volumes and favorable category mix. Given the continued softness in the beer category, we now expect full-year shipment growth for Europe of low single-digit percentage for full-year 2025. As we look into 2026, we continue to expect the market to grow around 3% to 4% and for our volumes to broadly match that growth. In the Americas, revenue in the third quarter increased by 8% to $803 million, which mainly reflected the pass-through of higher input costs to customers, including the impact of the higher Midwest premium in North America.

Speaker #5: Given the continued softness in the beer category , we now expect full year shipment growth for Europe of low single digit percentage for full year 2025 .

Speaker #5: As we look into 2026, we continue to expect the market to grow around 3% to 4%. And for our volumes to broadly match that growth.

Speaker #5: In the Americas , revenue in the third quarter increased by 8% to $803 million , which mainly reflected the past of higher input costs to customers , including the impact of the higher Midwest premium in North America .

Oliver Graham: In the Americas, revenue in Q3 increased by 8% to $803 million, which mainly reflected the pass-through of higher input costs to customers, including the impact of the higher Midwest Premium in North America. Americas Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased by 8% to $126 million, in line with expectations, due to lower operational and overhead costs, and favorable category mix, partly offset by the impact of lower volumes in Brazil. In North America, shipments increased by 1% for the quarter, broadly in line with the industry, following stronger than expected growth during the first half of the year. Year to date, North America shipments are up by 5%, ahead of the overall industry. The slower rate of growth during the quarter reflects some moderation in industry growth rates, as well as temporary operational challenges.

Speaker #5: Americas adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased by 8% to $126 million , in line with expectations due to lower operational and overhead costs and favorable category mix .

Oliver Graham: Americas adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased by 8% to $126 million, in line with expectations due to lower operational and overhead costs and favorable category mix, partly offset by the impact of lower volumes in Brazil. In North America, shipments increased by 1% for the quarter, broadly in line with the industry, following stronger-than-expected growth during the first half of the year. Year-to-date, North America shipments are up by 5%, ahead of the overall industry. The slow rate of growth during the quarter reflects some moderation in industry growth rates, as well as temporary operational challenges. These included a modest impact related to aluminum can sheet supply, as well as some temporary plant and network issues. We continue to monitor the metal supply situation as we progress through Q4.

Speaker #5: Partly offset by the impact of lower volumes in Brazil . In North America , shipments increased by 1% for the quarter , broadly in line with the industry following stronger than expected growth during the first half of the year .

Speaker #5: Year to date , North America shipments are up by 5% , ahead of the overall industry . The slower rate of growth during the quarter reflects some moderation in industry growth rates , as well as temporary operational challenges .

Speaker #5: These included a modest impact related to aluminum can sheet supply , as well as some temporary plant and network issues . We continue to monitor the metal supply situation as we progress through Q4 .

Oliver Graham: These included a modest impact related to aluminum can sheet supply, as well as some temporary plant and network issues. We continue to monitor the metal supply situation as we progress through Q4. If the supply chain performs as currently projected, we anticipate only a modest impact to our expected Q4 North America performance. Customer demand for non-alcoholic beverages in cans in North America remains strong, and as such, we maintain our guidance for full-year North America shipments of a mid-single-digit percentage growth. Looking into 2026, we expect industry growth of a low single-digit percentage. We expect a somewhat softer outlook for AMP, following some volume resets, largely related to specific footprint situations. We anticipate 2026 being a transition year before good growth in 2027, on the back of some contracted additional filling locations and ongoing market growth.

Speaker #5: If the supply chain performs as currently projected , we anticipate only a modest impact to our expected Q4 . North America performance . Customer demand for non-alcoholic beverages in cans in North America remains strong , and as such , we maintain our guidance for full year .

Oliver Graham: If the supply chain performs as currently projected, we anticipate only a modest impact to our expected Q4 North America performance. Customer demand for non-alcoholic beverages in cans in North America remains strong, and as such, we maintain our guidance for full-year North America shipments of a mid-single-digit % growth. Looking into 2026, we expect industry growth of a low single-digit %. We expect a somewhat softer outlook for AMP, following some volume resets, largely related to specific footprint situations. We anticipate 2026 being a transition year before good growth in 2027, on the back of some contracted additional filling locations and ongoing market growth. In Brazil, third quarter beverage can shipments decreased by 17%, largely due to a weak industry backdrop across all categories, with industry beer can volumes falling by around 14% due to adverse weather and weak household consumption.

Speaker #5: North America shipments of a mid-single digit percentage growth . Looking into 2026 , we expect industry growth of a low single digit percentage .

Speaker #5: We expect a somewhat softer outlook for AMP following some volume resets, largely related to specific footprint situations. We anticipate 2026 being a transition year before good growth in 2027.

Speaker #5: On the back of some contracted additional filling locations and ongoing market growth in Brazil . Third quarter beverage can shipments decreased by 17% , largely due to a weak industry backdrop across all categories , with industry , bacon volumes falling by around 14% due to adverse weather and weak household consumption .

Oliver Graham: In Brazil, Q3 beverage can shipments decreased by 17%, largely due to a weak industry backdrop across all categories, with industry beer can volumes falling by around 14% due to adverse weather and weak household consumption. Our weaker performance in Q3 follows a strong performance in the first half of the year. Year to date, Brazil shipments are down 1% versus a mid-single digit percentage decline for the rest of the industry. We expect an improved volume trend for Q4 compared to Q3, and hence full year shipments for Brazil to be broadly in line with the prior year. Looking into 2026, we expect the Brazilian industry to return to growth and for our volumes to broadly track the industry. I'll hand over now to Stefan to talk you through our financial position for the quarter before finishing with some concluding remarks.

Speaker #5: Our weaker performance in Q3 follows a strong performance in the first half of the year. Year to date, shipments are down 1% versus a mid-single digit percentage decline for the rest of the industry.

Oliver Graham: Our weaker performance in Q3 follows a strong performance in the first half of the year. Year-to-date, Brazil shipments are down 1% versus a mid-single-digit % decline for the rest of the industry. We expect an improved volume trend for Q4 compared to Q3, and hence, full-year shipments for Brazil to be broadly in line with the prior year. Looking into 2026, we expect the Brazilian industry to return to growth and for our volumes to broadly track the industry. I'll hand over now to Stefan to talk you through our financial position for the quarter, but before finishing with some concluding remarks.

Speaker #5: We expect an improved volume trend for Q4 compared to Q3 , and hence full year shipments for Brazil to be broadly in line with the prior year .

Speaker #5: Looking into 2026 , we expect the Brazilian industry to return to growth and for our volumes to broadly track the industry . I'll hand over now to Stefan to talk you through our financial position for the quarter before finishing with some concluding remarks .

Speaker #6: Thanks , and good morning . Good afternoon everyone . We ended the quarter with a robust liquidity position of over 600 million . The net leverage of 5.2 net debt over last 12 months , adjusted EBITDA represents a decline of 0.4 times of leverage versus Q2 2024 , reflecting adjusted EBITDA growth .

Stefan Schellinger: Thanks, Oli, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. We ended the quarter with a robust liquidity position of over $600 million. The net leverage of 5.2 net debt over the last 12 months' adjusted EBITDA represents a decline of 0.4 times of leverage versus Q2 2024, reflecting adjusted EBITDA growth. It remains our expectation that the leverage ratio at year-end will be around five times. We reiterate our expectation for adjusted free cash flow for 2025 of at least $150 million. In terms of the various components of free cash flow, our expectations are mostly in line with what we said in July. We expect maintenance CapEx of around $135 million, lease principal repayments of just over $100 million, cash interest of just over $200 million, and a small outflow in working capital.

Stefan Schellinger: Thanks, Ollie, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. We ended the quarter with a robust liquidity position of over $600 million. The net leverage of 5.2 net debt over the last twelve months adjusted EBITDA represents a decline of 0.4 times of leverage versus Q2 2024, reflecting adjusted EBITDA growth. It remains our expectation that the leverage ratio at year-end will be around 5 times. We reiterate our expectation for adjusted free cash flow for 2025 of at least $150 million. In terms of the various components of free cash flow, our expectations are mostly in line with what we said in July. We expect maintenance CapEx of around $135 million, lease principal repayments of just over $100 million, cash interest of just over $200 million, and a small outflow in working capital.

Speaker #6: It remains our expectation that the leverage ratio at year-end will be around five times. We reiterate our expectation for adjusted free cash flow for 2025 of at least $150 million. In terms of the various components of free cash flow, our expectations are mostly in line with what we said in July.

Speaker #6: We expect maintenance CapEx of around 135 million . Least principal repayments of just over 100 million cash interest of just over 200 million , and a small outflow in working capital .

Speaker #6: We now expect cash tax to be in the range of 35 to 40 million . Growth CapEx to be around 65 million and a small cash exceptional outflow of approximately 50 million .

Stefan Schellinger: We now expect cash tax to be in the range of $35 to $40 million, gross CapEx to be around $65 million, and a small cash exceptional outflow of approximately $15 million. Today, we have announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share. With that, I'll hand it back to Oli.

Stefan Schellinger: We now expect cash tax to be in the range of $35 to 40 million, Growth CapEx to be around $65 million, and a small cash exceptional outflow of approximately $50 million. Today, we have announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share. And with that, I'll hand it back to Ollie.

Speaker #6: Today we have announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share . And with that , I'll hand it back to Olli .

Speaker #5: Thanks , Stefan . So before moving to take your questions , just to recap on AMP's performance and key messages . Firstly , adjusted EBITDA growth in the third quarter of 6% was at the upper end of our guidance range , with both segments performing in line with expectations .

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Stefan. So before moving to take the questions, just to recap on AMP's performance and key messages. Firstly, Adjusted EBITDA growth in Q3 of 6% was at the upper end of our guidance range, with both segments performing in line with expectations. Adjusted EBITDA growth was supported by shipments growth in both Europe and North America, by lower operational and overhead costs, and a favorable category mix. The beverage can continues to outperform other substrates in our customers' packaging mix, supporting our growth. Reflecting our resilient performance, we are upgrading our full year Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Full year Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in a range of $720 to 735 million, based on current FX rates. We expect full year shipments growth for AMP to be approximately 3%.

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Stefan. Before moving to take your questions, just to recap on AMP's performance and key messages. Firstly, adjusted EBITDA growth in the third quarter of 6% was at the upper end of our guidance range, with both segments performing in line with expectations. Adjusted EBITDA growth was supported by shipments growth in both Europe and North America, by lower operational and overhead costs, and a favorable category mix. The beverage can continues to outperform other substrates in our customers' packaging mix, supporting our growth. Reflecting our resilient performance, we are upgrading our full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. Full-year adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in a range of $720 to $735 million, based on current FX rates. We expect full-year shipments growth for AMP to be approximately 3%. Having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions that you may have.

Speaker #5: Adjusted EBITDA growth was supported by shipments growth in both Europe and North America by lower operational and overhead costs , and a favorable category mix , and the beverage can continues to outperform other substrates in our customers packaging mix , supporting our growth , reflecting our resilient performance .

Speaker #5: We are upgrading our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance , full year adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in a range of 720 to $735 million , based on current FX rates , we expect full year shipments growth for AMP to be approximately 3% .

Oliver Graham: Full year Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in a range of $720 to 735 million, based on current FX rates. We expect full year shipments growth for AMP to be approximately 3%.Having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions that you may have.

Speaker #5: Having made these opening remarks , we'll now proceed to take any questions that you may have .

Oliver Graham: Having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions that you may have.

Speaker #3: Thank you . If you are dialed in via the telephone , I would like to ask a question . Please signal by pressing star One on your telephone keypad .

Operator 3: Thank you. If you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. We'll take our first question from George Stathos with Bank of America.

Operator: Thank you. If you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. We'll take our first question from George Stathos with Bank of America.

Speaker #3: If you are using a speakerphone , please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment again , press star one to ask a question .

Speaker #3: We'll take our first question from George Staphos with Bank of America .

Speaker #7: Hi everyone . Good morning . Thanks for taking my question . Thanks for the details . Congrats on the progress . I guess the first question I had , I only have a couple .

[Analyst 1]: Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Thanks for the details. Congrats on the progress. I guess the first question I had, I only have a couple. Can you talk, Ollie and Stefan, about what, if any, effects you're seeing from demand elasticity and higher realized or potentially realized aluminum pricing from can sheet within cans, both in North America and Brazil, and then I guess broadly? In that regard, with Brazil, the down, I think you said 17% on weak industry trends. Obviously, others have also put up some weaker industry volumes so far during the reporting period in Brazil. Do you sense any of that is a pack shift mix back to other substrates because of, in fact, higher aluminum prices? How would you have us think about that?

George Staphos: Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Thanks for the details. Congrats on the progress. I guess the first question I had, only have a couple, can you talk, Ollie and Stefan, about what, if any, effects you're seeing, from demand elasticity and higher realized or potentially realized aluminum pricing, from can sheet within cans, both in North America and Brazil, and then I guess broadly. And in that regard, with Brazil, the down, I think you said 17% on weak industry trends. Obviously, others have also put up some weaker industry volumes so far during the reporting period in Brazil. Do you sense any of that is a pack shift mix back to other substrates because of, in fact, higher aluminum prices? How would you have us think about that?

Speaker #7: Can you talk, Al and Stefan, about what, if any, effects you're seeing from demand elasticity and higher realized, or potentially realized, aluminum pricing from Kanchi within cans, both in North America and Brazil?

Speaker #7: And then, I guess broadly and in that regard with Brazil, the down, I think you said, 17% on weak industry trends.

Speaker #7: Obviously others have also put up some weaker industry volumes so far during reporting period in Brazil . Discuss any of that is a pack shift mix back to other substrates because of in fact , higher aluminum prices .

Speaker #7: How would you have us think about that ? And along with the elasticity question , just can you talk a bit more about what's baked into your guidance for fourth quarter and realizing you're not guiding on 26 , just the outlook for 26 on canned sheet ?

[Analyst 1]: Along with the elasticity question, just can you talk a bit more about what's baked into your guidance for fourth quarter and realizing you're not guiding on 2026, just the outlook for 2026 on can sheet? You know, what operational challenges do you, are you, how are you going to, we know what issues have hit the splodge and how are you managing against that and what's baked into it, to the extent you can comment? Thank you.

George Staphos: And along with the elasticity question, just, can you talk a bit more about what's baked into your guidance for Q4 and, realizing you're not guiding on 2026, just the outlook for 2026 on can sheet? You know, what operational challenges are you, how are you gonna, we know what issues have hit the slab, and how are you managing against that, and what's baked into the extent you can comment? Thank you.

Speaker #7: Oh, you know what operational challenges are. Are you going to— we know what issues have hit the supply chain. How are you managing against that, and what's baked into it, to the extent you can comment?

Speaker #7: Thank you .

Speaker #5: Yeah . Hi George . So yeah , on the first question , I mean , I don't think we're seeing a huge amount on demand elasticity at this point .

Oliver Graham: Yeah, hi George. On the first question, I don't think we're seeing a huge amount on demand elasticity at this point. Obviously, everybody, well, more or less everybody will have gone into 2025 pretty hedged, so a lot of the tariff impact won't have come through in North America at this point. Probably similar story for Brazil in some respects. I don't think we're seeing it hugely impacting sales at this point. I think that there's a bit more risk for 2026 for exactly the same reason that hedges will be rolling, and you would expect to see some higher aluminum costs come into the supply chain. It will be down to whether our customers pass those through or retailers pass those through and then how the consumer reacts and the overall consumer environment.

Oliver Graham: Yeah. Hi, George. So yeah, on the first question, I mean, I don't think we're seeing a huge amount on demand elasticity at this point. Obviously, everybody, well, more or less everybody will have gone into 2025 pretty hedged. So a lot of the tariff impact won't have come through in North America at this point. Probably similar story for Brazil in some respects. So I don't think we're seeing it hugely impacting sales at this point. I think that there's a bit more risk for 2026 for exactly the same reason that hedges will be rolling, and so you would expect to see some higher aluminum costs come into the supply chain.

Speaker #5: Obviously everybody well , more or less everybody will have gone into 2025 pretty hedged . So a lot of the tariff impact won't have come through in North America at this point .

Speaker #5: Probably similar story for for Brazil in some respects . So I don't think we're seeing it hugely impacting and sales at this point .

Speaker #5: I think that there's a bit more risk for 2026 for exactly the same reason that Hedges will be rolling . And so you would expect to see some higher aluminium costs come into the supply chain .

Speaker #5: And then it will be down to whether our customers pass those through or retailers pass those through , and then how the consumer reacts in the overall consumer environment .

Oliver Graham: And then it will be down to whether our customers pass those through, or retailers pass those through, and then how the consumer reacts and the overall consumer environment. So I think, you know, we're probably guiding North America for next year at a market level of sort of 1 to 2%, and that's partly reflecting some of that caution about potential inflation in the can. I think in Brazil, I don't think we've seen a big reversion back into two-way glass. I think it's stayed pretty much steady, the shares of cans. This just seems to be a general weakness on the volume level, on the liquid level, and we see that in the reporting of the big brewers.

Speaker #5: So I think , you know , we we're probably guiding North America for next year at a market level , sort of 1 to 2% .

Oliver Graham: I think we're probably guiding North America for next year at a market level of sort of 1% to 2%, and that's partly reflecting some of that caution about potential inflation in the can. In Brazil, I don't think we've seen a big reversion back into two-way glass. I think it stayed pretty much steady, the shares of cans. It just seems to be a general weakness on the volume level, on the liquid level. We see that in the reporting of the big brewers. It was a pretty poor winter, a very cold winter. That's been commented on. There is a weak consumer backdrop in the category, particularly in beer, but actually, soft drinks wasn't great either. I think Brazil is just having a tough year. Again, as we look into 2026, we'd assume that it reverts more back to its long-term trends, so maybe low to mid-singles.

Speaker #5: And that's partly reflecting some of that caution about potential inflation in the can . I think in Brazil , I don't think we've seen a big reversion back into two way glass .

Speaker #5: I think it stayed pretty much steady. The shares of cans; it just seems to be a general weakness on the volume level, on the liquid level.

Speaker #5: And we see that in the reporting of the of the big brewers . And obviously it was a pretty , a pretty poor winter , a very cold winter that's been commented on and and obviously there is a weak consumer backdrop in , in the category , particularly in beer .

Oliver Graham: And it obviously was a pretty poor winter, a very cold winter, that's been commented on, and obviously there is a weak consumer backdrop in the category, particularly in beer, but actually soft drinks wasn't great either. So I think Brazil is just having a tough year. Again, as we look into 2026, we'd assume that it reverts more back to its long-term trends. So maybe, you know, low to mid-singles and, you know, as we said in the remarks, we'd be in line with that. In terms of Q4, I think the can sheet, we're cautiously optimistic at this point. Obviously, there's been a lot of disruption in the supply chain. We were having it actually before the fire at that key facility.

Speaker #5: But actually soft drinks wasn't great either . So . So I think Brazil's just having a tough year again , as we look into 26 , we'd assume that it reverts more back to its long term trend .

Speaker #5: So maybe , you know , low to mid singles and you know , as we said in the remarks , we'd be we'd be in line with that in terms of Q4 .

Oliver Graham: As we said in the remarks, we'd be in line with that. In terms of Q4, I think the can sheet, we're cautiously optimistic at this point. There's been a lot of disruption in the supply chain. We were having it actually before the fire at that key facility. There was already some disruption in the supply chain, which we mentioned. The fire didn't help. At this point, we think we're managing through. It gets easier as the quarter progresses because alternative sources of supply can come into the mix. We're supplied from various domestic and international sources. We also have one of the two new mills in North America now coming online, which is very helpful to the situation. At the minute, you know, we're optimistic that we can get through that, as we said in the remarks, with relatively limited impact on North America performance.

Speaker #5: So I think the can sheet we're we're cautiously optimistic at this point . Obviously , there's been a lot of disruption in the supply chain .

Speaker #5: We were having it actually before the fire at at that key facility . There was already some disruption in the supply chain , which we mentioned .

Oliver Graham: There was already some disruption in the supply chain, which we mentioned, and obviously, the fire didn't help. At this point, we think we're managing through, and obviously, it gets easier as the quarter progresses because alternative sources of supply can come into the mix, and we're, you know, obviously supplied from various domestic and international sources. And we also have one of the two new mills in North America now coming online, which is obviously, you know, very helpful to the situation. So at the minute, you know, we're optimistic that we can get through that, as we said in the remarks, with relatively limited impact on North America performance. But we probably did lose 1 to 2 points of growth in Q3 across all of the operation issues.

Speaker #5: And obviously the fire didn't help at this point . We think we're managing through . And obviously it gets easier as the quarter progresses because alternative sources of supply can come into the mix and we're obviously supplied in from various domestic and international sources .

Speaker #5: And we also have one of the two new mills in North America now coming online, which is obviously very helpful to the situation.

Speaker #5: So at the minute , you know , we're optimistic that we can get through that . As we said in the remarks with relatively limited impact on North America performance .

Speaker #5: But we probably did lose 1 to 2 points of growth in Q3 across all of the operational issues . That included a couple of plants that didn't perform at the level we'd expected , and also the network was under some stress with some seismic issues .

Oliver Graham: We probably did lose 1 to 2 points of growth in Q3 across all of the operational issues. That included a couple of plants that didn't perform at the level we'd expected. Also, the network was under some stress with some seismic issues.

Oliver Graham: That included a couple of plants that didn't perform at the level we'd expected, and also the network was under some stress with some seismic issues.

Speaker #7: Very good . I'll turn it over . Thank you .

George Staphos: Very good. I'll turn it over. Thank you.

[Analyst 1]: Very good. I'll turn it over. Thank you.

Speaker #5: Thanks , George .

Oliver Graham: Thanks, George.

Speaker #3: We'll take our next question from Matt Roberts with Raymond James .

Operator: We'll take our next question from Matt Roberts with Raymond James.

Operator 3: We'll take our next question from Matt Roberts with Raymond James.

Operator: We'll take our next question from Matt Roberts with Raymond James.

Speaker #8: Hi , Ali Steffen and Steven . Good afternoon . First on that 2026 growth in North America . It seems like there's a lot of innovation potential shelf space distribution opportunities within your energy portfolio .

Matt Roberts: Hi, Ollie, Stefan, and Stephen. Good afternoon. First, on the 2026 growth in North America, it seems like there's a lot of innovation, potential shelf space, distribution opportunities within your energy portfolio. So what's behind that transition there, and given your exposures, why in line with the market in North America?

[Analyst 2]: Hi, Ollie, Stefan, and Stephen. Good afternoon. First, on that 2026 growth in North America, it seems like there's a lot of innovation, potential shelf space, distribution opportunities within your energy portfolio. What's behind that transition year? Given your exposures, why in line with the market in North America?

Speaker #8: So what's behind that transition here . And given your exposures why in line with the market in North America ?

Speaker #5: Oh yeah . Great question . So look I think we've talked about it on calls . It's been on other calls . You know there's a lot of contract reset activity in North America over the last couple of years .

Oliver Graham: So, yeah, great question. So look, I think, we've talked about it on calls, it's been on other calls. You know, there's a lot of contract reset activity in North America over the last couple of years. We're seeing that, you know, increasingly settle down now. You know, and we're, we're broadly very comfortable with the outcomes. We see ourselves increasingly strongly contracted through 2028 and beyond. We do see some softness, as we said, in 2026, particularly on the 12-ounce side of the portfolio, you know, due to some resets within those situations. And as I said on the, on the remarks, it's really about some specific footprint situations. So what I mean by that is, you know, for example, we had a customer with a very long freight lane out of the COVID years.

Oliver Graham: Oh, yeah. Great question. I think we've talked about it on calls. It's been on other calls. There was a lot of contract reset activity in North America over the last couple of years. We're seeing that increasingly settle down now, and we're broadly very comfortable with the outcomes. We see ourselves increasingly strongly contracted through 2028 and beyond. We do see some softness, as we said, in 2026, particularly on the 12-ounce side of the portfolio due to some resets within those situations. As I said on the remarks, it's really about some specific footprint situations. By what I mean by that is, for example, we had a customer with a very long freight lane out of the COVID years. We were at one point thinking of building capacity. We decided not to with the overall volume situation.

Speaker #5: We're seeing that , you know , increasingly settle down now , you know , and we're we're broadly very comfortable with the outcomes .

Speaker #5: We see ourselves increasingly strongly contracted through 28 and beyond . We do see some softness , as we said in 2026 , particularly on the 12 ounce side of the portfolio .

Speaker #5: You know , due to some resets within those situations . And and as I said on the on the remarks , it's really about some specific footprint situations .

Speaker #5: So by what I mean by that is , you know , for example , we had a customer with a very long freight lane out of the Covid years .

Speaker #5: We were at one point thinking of building capacity . We decided not to with the overall volume situation . So , you know , now there is a plant much closer than our our plant .

Oliver Graham: We were, at one point, thinking of building capacity. We decided not to with the overall volume situation. So, you know, now there is a plant much closer than our, our plant, and so that naturally reverts. And then, you know, another situation example is that one of our competition built a plant during this period of expansion, and that plant is now closer to a customer filling location than our plant. And so we're seeing some, I think, relatively natural resets in the market. As you know, I mean, obviously, beverage cans are very susceptible to freight, and footprint is critical. So yeah, as I say, I think we're very comfortable with where we're coming out now. We do see 2026 as a softer year in North America, where we will be behind the market, but if we take 2027, we see good growth.

Oliver Graham: Now there is a plant much closer than our plant, and that naturally reverts. Another situation example is that one of our competition built a plant during this period of expansion, and that plant is now closer to a customer filling location than our plant. We're seeing some, I think, relatively natural resets in the market. As you know, beverage cans are very susceptible to freight, and footprint is critical. I think we're very comfortable with where we're coming out now. We do see 2026 as a softer year in North America where we will be behind the market. If we take 2027, we see good growth. We see we're gaining a couple of extra filling locations, and we see the market growing again.

Speaker #5: And so that naturally reverts . And then , you know , another situation example is that one of our competition built a plant during this period of expansion .

Speaker #5: And that plant is now closer to a customer filling location than our plant . And so we're seeing some , I think , relatively natural resets in the market , as you know , I mean , obviously beverage cans are very susceptible to freight and footprint is critical .

Speaker #5: So yeah , as I say , I think we're very comfortable with where we're coming out now . We do see 26 as a softer year in North America , where we will be behind the market .

Speaker #5: But if we take 27 , we see good growth , we see we're gaining a couple of extra filling locations . And , you know , we see the market growing again .

Oliver Graham: We see we're gaining a couple of extra filling locations and, you know, we see the market growing again. And as you say, I think if you look at the innovation that's, you know, going into the can, and you look at the way energy has performed this year, that's a big part of our portfolio. You know, we actually don't know where that's gonna be. You know, it, it certainly surprised us on the upside this year. I think it's got good potential next year, probably not to the same level, but, you know, it's a big part of our portfolio. So yeah, we can be optimistic about those kind of categories as well.

Speaker #5: And as you say, I think if you look at the innovation that's, you know, going into the can, you can look at the way energy is performed this year. That's a big part of our portfolio.

Oliver Graham: If you look at the innovation that's going into the can, you look at the way energy has performed this year, that's a big part of our portfolio. We actually don't know where that's going to be. It certainly surprises on the upside this year. I think it's got good potential next year, probably not to the same level, but it's a big part of our portfolio. We can be optimistic about those kind of categories as well.

Speaker #5: You know, we actually don't know where that's going to be. You know, it's certainly surprising. On the upside, this year I think it has good potential for next year.

Speaker #5: Probably not to the same level. But you know, it's a big part of our portfolio. So, yeah, we can be optimistic about those kinds of categories as well.

Speaker #8: Right . Right . Thank you for all the additional color there . And speaking of capacity and footprint , last quarter you had a for adds in Europe .

Matt Roberts: Right. Right. Thank you for all the additional color there, Oli. And then, speaking of capacity and footprint, last quarter, you noted potential for adds in Europe, I believe it was Southern Europe, but recognizing these projects are long-term in nature, has the volume outlook changed either the timing in regard to any potential projects, or are you still expecting Europe to be pretty tight and needing additional lines in the future? And, any early indications that you're thinking about CapEx in 2026? Thank you for taking the questions.

[Analyst 2]: Right. Thank you for all the additional color there, Ollie. Speaking of capacity and footprint, last quarter, you noted potential for adds in Europe. I believe it was Southern Europe, but recognizing these projects are long-term in nature, has the volume outlook changed either the timing in regard to any potential projects, or are you still expecting Europe to be pretty tight and needing additional lines in the future? Any early indications there or anything about CapEx in 2026? Thank you for taking the questions.

Speaker #8: I believe it was Southern Europe. But recognizing these projects are long-term in nature, has the volume outlook changed? Either the timing in regard to any potential projects, or are you still expecting Europe to be pretty tight and needing additional lines in the future?

Speaker #8: And any early indications about CapEx in 2026? Thank you for taking the questions.

Speaker #5: No pleasure . No , we don't see any change to timing . So , I mean , I think that the Europe market is pretty tight .

Oliver Graham: No, pleasure. No, we don't see any change to the timing. I think that the Europe market is pretty tight. We're particularly tight on certain sizes, and we'll address that. That definitely cost us some growth this year. Again, it's sort of specialty sizes in the season. We weren't completely able to follow, and that cost us a bit of growth in Q2 and probably persisted into Q3. We'll do some projects around that in the off-season. We're running pretty tight. We've got some room for growth with continued improvement in the existing footprint, but we don't see any change to the timing of needing new capacity. Europe's a long-term growth market. It's been talked about on other calls. We're talking 3% to 4%. Some years it's been more, some years a bit less, but it's been very consistent as per capita can penetration grows. We don't see anything.

Oliver Graham: No, pleasure. No, we don't see any change to the timing. So I mean, I think that the Europe market is pretty tight. We're particularly tight on certain sizes, and we'll address that. That definitely cost us some growth this year. You know, again, it's sort of specialty sizes in the season. You know, we weren't completely able to follow, and that, that cost us a bit of growth Q2 and probably persisted into Q3. So we'll do some projects around that in the off-season. And then, yeah, we're running pretty tight. We've got, we've got some room for growth with, you know, continued improvement in the existing footprint, but, we don't see any change to the timing of needing new capacity. You know, Europe's a, a long-term growth market. It's been talked about on other calls, you know, we're talking 3 to 4%.

Speaker #5: We're particularly tight on certain sizes , and we'll address that . That definitely cost us some growth this year . You know , again , it's sort of specialty sizes in the season .

Speaker #5: You know we weren't completely able to follow in that that cost us a bit of growth . Q2 and probably persisted into Q3 .

Speaker #5: So we'll do some projects around that in the off season . And then , yeah , we're running pretty tight . We've got we've got some room for growth with continued improvement in the existing footprint , but we don't see any change to the timing of needing new capacity .

Speaker #5: You know , Europe's a long term growth market . It's been talked about on other calls . You know we we're talking 3 to 4% in some years .

Speaker #5: It's been more some years a bit less . But it's been very consistent . You know as per capita can penetration grows . So yeah we don't see anything .

Oliver Graham: Some years it's been more, some years a bit less, but it's been very consistent, you know, as per capita can penetration grows. So yeah, we don't see anything. It's obviously had a bit of a weak, you know, summer, particularly in the beer category, but we're very optimistic about that market, and as we said in the remarks, we see ourselves growing in line with the market in 2026.

Speaker #5: It's obviously had a bit of a weak , you know summer particularly in the beer category . But we're very optimistic about that market .

Oliver Graham: It's obviously had a bit of a weak summer, particularly in the beer category, but we're very optimistic about that market. As we said in the remarks, we see ourselves growing in line with the market in 2026.

Speaker #5: And as we said in the remarks , we see ourselves growing in line with the market in 26 .

Speaker #8: Thank you again . I .

[Analyst 2]: Thank you again, Oliver.

Matt Roberts: Thank you again, Oli.

Speaker #5: Pleasure .

Oliver Graham: Pleasure.

Speaker #3: We'll go next to Stephane Diaz with Morgan Stanley .

Operator 4: We'll go next to Stefan Diaz with Morgan Stanley.

Operator: We'll go next to Stefan Diaz with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker #9: Hi , Ali . Hi , Stefan . Thanks for taking my questions . Maybe just sticking with Europe . So , you know , obviously , the can continues to outperform underlying liquids volumes in the region , but in your opinion , how much more runway does the can have for outperformance , like , for example , if overall liquid demand sort of remains kind of flat to down in Europe , can the can still grow in 2026 , 27 and beyond ?

[Analyst 2]: Hi, Ollie. Hi, Stefan. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just sticking with Europe. Obviously, the can continues to outperform underlying liquids volumes in the region. In your opinion, how much more runway does the can have for outperformance? For example, if overall liquid demand sort of remains kind of flat to down in Europe, can the can still grow in 2026, 2027, and beyond?

Stefan Diaz: Hi, Oli. Hi, Stefan. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just sticking with Europe. So, you know, obviously, the can continues to outperform underlying liquid volumes, in the region. But in your opinion, how much more runway does the can have for outperformance? Like, for example, if overall liquid demand sort of remains kind of flat to down in Europe, can the can still grow in, you know, 2026, 2027 and beyond?

Speaker #5: Yeah , definitely . So I think that if you look at the things that drive the growth , I mean , there's . Still significant penetration of cans relative to other geographies .

Oliver Graham: Yeah, definitely. I think that if you look at the things that drive the growth, there's still significant underpenetration of cans relative to other geographies. Some of that is legacy with the German deposit scheme that took all cans out of the German markets. You still see German can growth at very high levels, obviously a big market. You have growth out of two-way and plastic in different parts of the region, Eastern Europe. We have the ongoing sustainability advantages of the can relative to other substrates. Obviously, you have in Europe particularly the energy cost situation that's impacting glass. We see a lot of runway for growth for the can in Europe. I think that view is shared right across the industry and is backed up every quarter.

Oliver Graham: Yeah, definitely. So I think that if you look at the things that drive the growth, I mean, there's still significant under-penetration of cans relative to other geographies. You know, some of that is legacy with the German deposit scheme that took all cans out of the German market, so you still see German can growth at very high levels, obviously a big market. You have growth out of two-way and plastic in, in different parts of the region, Eastern Europe. We have the ongoing sustainability advantages of the can, relative to other substrates, and obviously, you have in Europe, particularly the energy cost situation, that's impacting glass. So, we see a lot of runway for growth for the can in Europe, and I think that view is shared right across the industry and, you know, is backed up every quarter.

Speaker #5: You know , some of that is legacy with the German deposit scheme that took all cans out of the German market . So you still see German can growth at very high levels .

Speaker #5: Obviously , a big market , you have growth out of two way and plastic in in different parts of the region . Eastern Europe , we have the ongoing sustainability advantages of the can relative to other substrates .

Speaker #5: And obviously, you have in Europe, particularly the energy cost situation that's impacting glass. So we see a lot of runway for growth for the can in Europe.

Speaker #5: And I think that view is shared right across the industry . And you know is backed up every quarter . If we look at our performance in the quarter , you know , when we look at our markets that we were in , we were a touch behind , but only a touch behind .

Oliver Graham: If we look at our performance in the quarter, you know, when we look at our markets that we were in, we were a touch behind, but only a touch behind. So I think, you know, there are always geographic and category mix impacts in individual company growth rates. But overall, we're happy with our performance, and we definitely see a lot of runway for can growth in Europe in the next few years. Yeah.

Oliver Graham: If we look at our performance in the quarter, when we look at our markets that we were in, we were a touch behind, but only a touch behind. I think there are always geographic and category mix impacts in individual company growth rates. Overall, we're happy with our performance, and we definitely see a lot of runway for can growth in Europe in the next few years. Yeah.

Speaker #5: So I think , you know , there are always geographic and category mix impacts in individual company growth rates . But but overall , we're happy with our performance and we definitely see a lot of runway for growth in Europe in the next few years .

Speaker #5: Yeah great .

Speaker #9: That's that's helpful . And then maybe if you could just touch on quarter to date trends by geography and , you know , maybe particularly if you could go into detail on Brazil , just , you know , given , you know , how weak this past quarter was on an industry level and , you know , just now how we're in the busy season down there .

Stefan Diaz: Great! That's, that's helpful. And then maybe just, can you, if you could just touch on quarter-to-date trends by geography and, you know, maybe particularly if you could go into detail on Brazil, just, you know, given, you know, how weak this past quarter was on an industry level and, you know, just now how we're in the busy season down there. And then if I could just slip in one more, I might have missed this in the release, but can you quantify the IFRS 15, you know, contract timing benefit? And is this potentially a headwind in Q4? Thank you.

[Analyst 2]: Great. That's helpful. Maybe just can you, if you could just touch on quarter-to-date trends by geography and, you know, maybe particularly if you could go into detail on Brazil, just, you know, given how weak this past quarter was on an industry level and, you know, just now how we're in the busy season down there. If I could just slip in one more, I might have missed this in the release, but can you quantify the IFRS 15, you know, contract timing benefit? Is this potentially a headwind in Q4? Thank you.

Speaker #9: And then, if I could just slip in one more, I might have missed this in the release. But can you quantify the IFRS 15?

Speaker #9: You contract timing benefit ? And is this potentially a headwind in for Q thank you .

Speaker #6: Sure .

Speaker #5: So I think I mean , quarter today , I think trends that look good very much in line with with guidance , you know , across all geographies , I think Brazil clearly significantly better , you know , where we're guiding if we're at the top end of the guidance , then we expect Brazil to be , you know , at flat growth year on year , which obviously is therefore , you know , growth in Q4 .

Oliver Graham: Sure. I think, quarter-to-date, trends look good, very much in line with guidance across all geographies. I think Brazil clearly significantly better where we're guiding. If we're at the top end of the guidance, then we expect Brazil to be at flat growth year-on-year, which obviously is therefore growth in Q4. We already see in October significantly better performance than Q3. We do see improvement. I think it's still a bit on the weak side, and we're still maintaining a cautious stance in our guide, but it's definitely better than Q3. I think that Europe and North America would just say, yeah, absolutely in line with where we expect it. It seems that there's a reasonable degree of forecastability in our markets right now. I think the specific question on IFRS 15 is just a couple of million dollars, right? Maybe it's Stefan.

Oliver Graham: Sure. So I think, I mean, quarter to date, I think, trends look good, very much in line with guidance, you know, across all geographies. I think Brazil, clearly significantly better. You know, where we're guiding, if we're at the top end of the guidance, then we expect Brazil to be, you know, flat growth year-over-year, which obviously is therefore, you know, growth in Q4. And we already see in October significantly better performance than Q3. So we do see improvement. I think it's still a bit on the weak side, and we're still maintaining a cautious stance in our guide, but it's definitely better than Q3. And I think that Europe and North America, we'd just say, yeah, you know, absolutely in line with where we expect it.

Speaker #5: And we already see an October significantly better performance than Q3 . So so we do see improvement . I think it's still a bit on the weak side , and we're still maintaining a cautious stance in our in our guide .

Speaker #5: But but it's definitely better than than Q3 . And I think that Europe and North America would just say , yeah , you know , absolutely in line with with where we expect it .

Speaker #5: So it seems that there's a reasonable degree of forecast stability in our markets right now . I think the the specific question on IFRS 15 is just a couple of million dollars , right ?

Oliver Graham: So seems that there's a reasonable degree of forecast ability in our markets right now. I think the specific question on IFRS 15 is just $2 million, right? And maybe it's Stefan, I don't know that we anticipate anything particular in Q4, but I'll hand that to you.

Speaker #5: And maybe it's Stephan. I don't know that we anticipate anything particular in Q4, but I'll hand that to you.

Oliver Graham: I don't know that we anticipate anything particular in Q4, but I'll hand that to you.

Speaker #6: No , I don't think we expect a major headwind in Q4 from from our IFRS and sort of yeah , it's sort of around a couple of million dollars , sort of in the in the Americas .

Stefan Schellinger: No, I don't think we expect a major headwind in Q4 from IFRS, and sort of yeah, it's sort of around $2 million in the Americas, and then also, you know, a few more in the European segment. But net, yeah, we don't expect a major headwind from that.

Stefan Schellinger: No, I don't think we expect a major headwind in Q4 from IFRS. It's around a couple of million dollars in the Americas, and then also a few more in the European segment. Net-net, we don't expect a major headwind from that.

Speaker #6: And then then also , you know , a few more in sort of the European segment , but net net , you know , we don't we don't expect a major , major headwind from that .

Speaker #9: Thank you so much .

Stefan Diaz: Thank you so much.

[Analyst 2]: Thank you so much.

Speaker #5: Thanks , Stefan .

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Stefan.

Speaker #3: For the next two , Josh Spector with UBS .

Operator 4: We'll go next to Josh Spector with UBS.

Operator: We'll go next to Josh Spector with UBS.

Speaker #10: Hey . Good morning . I just had two questions . More on the cost side . Is within your comments . You talked about less input , cost recovery in Europe .

Josh Spector: ... Hey, good morning. I just had two questions. More on the cost side is, you know, within your comments, you know, you talked about less input cost recovery in Europe. I assume that's non-metals related, but can you talk about kind of what that is, and if that is something that can be recovered? And then, you know, with North America, with some of the temporary network issues you've called out, I don't know if you can size that at all, and is that something that's resolved, or is this kind of just an effect of a tighter market, maybe leading to inefficiencies that persist? Thanks.

[Analyst 1]: Yeah, hey, good morning. I just had two questions, more on the cost side. Within your comments, you talked about less input cost recovery in Europe. I assume that's non-metals related, but can you talk about kind of what that is and if that is something that can be recovered? With North America, with some of the temporary network issues you've called out, I don't know if you can size that at all. Is that something that's resolved, or is this kind of just an effect of a tighter market maybe leading to inefficiencies that persist? Thanks.

Speaker #10: I assume that's non-metals related , but can you talk about kind of what that is and if that is something that can be recovered .

Speaker #10: And then with North America , with some of the temporary network issues , you've called out , I don't know if you can size that at all .

Speaker #10: And is that something that's resolved, or is this kind of just an effect of a tighter market? Maybe leading to inefficiencies that persist?

Speaker #10: Thanks .

Speaker #5: Sure . So taking the North American one first , I think those issues are resolved as we go into Q4 . I think that they were consequence of our strong growth in the first half , particularly on certain sizes .

Oliver Graham: Sure. So taking the North America one first, I think that those issues are resolved as we go into Q4. I think that they were a consequence of our strong growth in the first half, particularly on certain sizes. So we ended up with the network. We were basically pushing the shortage around different sizes across the summer, and it landed on 12-ounce in Q3. And I think we mentioned in the remark, or I mentioned in one of my earlier replies, that we probably lost 1 to 2 points of growth in North America in Q3, which was everything, including metal supply issues, and some of our network and plant issues. So yeah, we see those as fully resolved going into Q4. And the issue I really was, you know, very focused on is the metal supply.

Oliver Graham: Sure. Taking the North American one first, I think that those issues are resolved as we go into Q4. I think that they were a consequence of our strong growth in the first half, particularly on certain sizes. We ended up with the network. We were basically pushing the shortage around different sizes across the summer, and it landed on 12 ounce in Q3. I think we mentioned in the remark, or I mentioned in one of my earlier replies, that we probably lost one to two points of growth in North America in Q3, which was everything, including metal supply issues and some of our network and plant issues. We see those as fully resolved going into Q4. The issue we're really, you know, very focused on is the metal supply, but as I say, cautiously optimistic at this point.

Speaker #5: So we ended up with the network . We were basically pushing the shortage around different sizes across across the summer . It landed on 12 ounce in in Q3 , and I think we mentioned in the remarks or I mentioned in one of my earlier replies that we probably lost 1 to 2 points of growth in North America in Q3 , which was everything , including metal supply issues and some of our network and plant issues .

Speaker #5: So yeah , we see those as fully resolved going into Q4 and the the issue we're really , you know , very focused on is the metal supply .

Speaker #5: But as I say , cautiously optimistic at this point . And then the input costs . Yeah , we talked about it earlier in the year .

Oliver Graham: But as I say, cautiously optimistic at this point. And then the input cost, yeah, we talked about it earlier in the year. Nothing's changed here. This is European aluminum prices. It's really a legacy of the Ukraine war and the energy spike. We managed to hold that off for several years, but in the end, you know, there is energy and aluminum, and those prices came through. And I think there has been commentary, certainly at least in one of our peers, on similar lines. So I think that, you know, not surprisingly, eventually that energy shock translated through into some input cost price rises, and that impact came particularly for us this year. It's different for different players depending on their supply mix. So nothing new there. Exactly what we talked about earlier in the year.

Oliver Graham: The input costs, yeah, we talked about it earlier in the year. Nothing's changed here. This is European aluminum prices. It's really a legacy of the Ukraine war and the energy spike. We managed to hold that off for several years, but in the end, you know, there is energy in aluminum, and those prices came through. I think there has been commentary, certainly at least in one of our peers, on similar lines. I think that, you know, not surprisingly, eventually, that energy shock translated through into some input cost price rises, and that impact came particularly for us this year. It's different for different players depending on their supply mix. Nothing new there, exactly what we talked about earlier in the year.

Speaker #5: Nothing's changed here . This is European aluminium prices . It's really a legacy of the of the Ukraine war and the energy spike .

Speaker #5: We managed to hold that off for several years . But in the end , you know there is energy and aluminium and and those prices came through .

Speaker #5: And I think there has been commentary , certainly , at least in one of our peers on similar lines . So I think that , you know , not not surprisingly , eventually that energy shock translated through into some input cost price rises and that impact came particularly for us this year .

Speaker #5: It's different for different players depending on their supply mix, so there's nothing new there. Exactly what we talked about earlier in the year.

Speaker #10: Okay . Thank you . I'll leave it there .

[Analyst 1]: Okay. Thank you. I'll leave it there.

Josh Spector: Okay, thank you. I'll leave it there.

Speaker #11: Thanks .

Oliver Graham: Thanks.

Speaker #3: We'll go next to Arun Viswanathan with RBC capital .

Operator: We'll go next to Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

Operator 3: We'll go next to Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital.

Operator: We'll go next to Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital.

Speaker #12: Great . Thanks . I just wanted to get your thoughts on , you know , EBITDA and I guess , you know , growth as you look into 26 .

[Analyst 1]: Great. Thanks. I just wanted to get your thoughts on EBITDA and I guess, you know, growth as you look into 2026. It looks like you're kind of, you know, on a $725 million or so, you know, run rate on an annualized basis. If you think about maybe low single-digit growth, as you discussed, for 2026, it seems like you are executing relatively well. Does that translate to, say, maybe mid-single-digit growth on the EBITDA line? Maybe is there any further leverage as you deliver? How should you think about that progressing forward as you look at it?

Arun Viswanathan: Great, thanks. I just wanted to get your thoughts on, you know, EBITDA and I guess, you know, growth as you look into 2026. So, looks like you're kind of, you know, on a $725 million or so, you know, run rate on an annualized basis. If you think about maybe low single-digit growth as you discussed for 2026, you know, it seems like you are executing relatively well. So does that translate to, say, maybe mid-single-digit growth on the EBITDA line? And then, you know, maybe is there any further leverage as you de-lever, or how should you think about that, progressing forward as you look at it?

Speaker #12: So it looks like you're you're you're kind of , you know , on a 725 million or so , you know , run rate on an annualized basis .

Speaker #12: If you think about maybe low single digit growth as you as you discussed for 26 , you know , it seems like you are executing relatively well .

Speaker #12: So does that translate to say , maybe mid-single digit growth on the EBITDA line ? And then , you know , maybe is there any further leverage as you delever or how should you think about that progressing forward as you as you look at ?

Speaker #5: Yeah , sure . Look , obviously we we don't guide 26 until our Q4 and there's good reason for that . We're still rolling up the budget and all the detail and also there's still at this time of year , quite a bit of volume still under discussion or moving around .

Oliver Graham: Yeah, sure. Obviously, we don't guide 2026 until our Q4s, and there's good reason for that. We're still rolling up the budget and all the detail. Also, there's still, at this time of year, quite a bit of volume still under discussion or moving around. We won't be guiding specifically. If I just talk at the highest level, I didn't say we were growing low single digits next year. I think what I said was, Europe, we see growing 3% to 4%, and us broadly in line. I said I think Brazil will grow low to mid. Us broadly in line. I said I think North America will grow 1% to 2% and will be softer than the market. We don't yet have a global number. I think we definitely see earnings growth in 2026 over 2025.

Oliver Graham: Yeah, sure. Look, obviously, we, we don't guide 2026 until our Q4. And there's good reason for that. We're still rolling up the budget and all the detail, and also there's still, at this time of year, quite a bit of volume, still under discussion or moving around. So, you know, so we won't be guiding specifically, but if I just talk at, at the highest level. So I think I didn't say we were growing low single digits next year. I think what I said was, Europe, we see growing 3% to 4%, and US broadly in line. I said I think Brazil will grow low to mid, US broadly in line. I said I think North America will grow 1% to 2% and will be softer than the market. So we don't yet have a, a global number.

Speaker #5: So , you know , so we won't be guiding specifically . But if I just talk at , at the highest level . So I didn't say we were growing low single digits next year , I think what I said was Europe , we see growing 3 to 4% .

Speaker #5: And I was broadly in line . I said , I think Brazil will grow low to mid US broadly in line . I said , I think North America will grow 1 to 2% and will be softer than the market .

Speaker #5: So we don't yet have a global number . I think we definitely see earnings growth in 26 over 25 . So , you know , some of those growth positions , particularly Europe , Brazil .

Oliver Graham: I think we definitely see earnings growth in 2026, over 2025. So, you know, some of those growth positions, particularly Europe, Brazil, we also see good operational cost savings. You know, we've got a lot of opportunity in plants, in freight, in light weighting, you know, the usual places where can makers make operational cost savings, input costs. We're hopeful for 2026 as well at this point. And obviously, we'll be keeping a tight eye, as we always do, on SG&A. Mix, we'd hope to be a tailwind in 2026. So, you know, we see a number of areas where, we see earnings growth in 2026, and we definitely see earnings growth over 2025, but we won't guide specifically on that until February.

Oliver Graham: Some of those growth positions, particularly Europe-Brazil, we also see good operational cost savings. We've got a lot of opportunity in plants, in freight, in lightweighting, the usual places where can makers make operational cost savings. Input costs, we're hopeful for 2026 as well at this point. Obviously, we'll be keeping a tight eye, as we always do, on SG&A mix. We'd hope to be a tailwind 2026. We see a number of areas where we see earnings growth in 2026, and we definitely see earnings growth over 2025. We won't guide specifically on that until February.

Speaker #5: We also see good operational cost savings. You know, we've got a lot of opportunity in plants, in freight, in lightweighting. You know the usual places where can makers can make operational cost savings: input costs.

Speaker #5: We’re hopeful for 26 as well at this point. Obviously, we'll be keeping a tight eye, as we always do, on SG&A mix.

Speaker #5: We'd hope to be a tailwind . 26 so , you know , we see a number of areas where we see earnings growth in 26 , and we definitely see earnings growth over 2025 .

Speaker #5: But we won't guide specifically on that until until February .

Speaker #12: Great . Thanks for that . And then maybe we can just discuss Europe just briefly . So in North America we obviously saw your nice proliferation of new categories and non-alcoholic beverages .

[Analyst 2]: Great, thanks for that. Maybe we can just discuss Europe briefly. In North America, we obviously saw a nice proliferation of new categories in non-alcoholic beverages. Could you just discuss maybe where we are on that trajectory within Europe? Is there maybe a tailwind that's coming, or are we obviously already seeing it? Would you expect that to drive your results a little bit higher, or would you be still maybe below the market because of the beer exposure? Thanks.

Arun Viswanathan: Great. Thanks for that. And then maybe we can just discuss Europe just briefly. So in North America, we obviously saw a nice proliferation of new categories and non-alcoholic beverages. Could you just discuss maybe where we are in that trajectory within Europe? You know, is there, you know, maybe a tailwind that's coming, or are we obviously already seeing it? And would you expect that to drive your results a little bit higher, or would you be still maybe below the market because of the beer exposure? Thanks.

Speaker #12: Could you just discuss maybe where we are in that trajectory within Europe . You know , is there you know , maybe a tailwind that's coming or are we obviously already seeing it ?

Speaker #12: And would you expect that to drive your results a little bit higher, or would you still be maybe below the market because of the beer exposure?

Speaker #12: Thanks .

Speaker #5: Yeah . I mean , we saw a bit of that in Q3 as I mentioned . So I mean , if you look where our Q3 growth came from , it came particularly out of the energy category , you know , a bit like North America came out of some of these faster growing categories , like ready to drink teas , coffees , wines , waters .

Oliver Graham: Yeah, I mean, we saw a bit of that in Q3, as I mentioned. If you look where our Q3 growth came from, it came particularly out of the energy category, you know, a bit like North America. It came out of some of these faster-growing categories like ready-to-drink teas, coffees, wines, waters. We're strong in all those categories. We definitely saw that. I think the other piece with Europe, I think we also see general soft drinks in growth with substitution of plastic and also some two-way systems being substituted still. It's definitely not reliant on those more innovative categories to get growth in Europe. You can get growth fully in the core if you like. I think what we're saying for 2026 is absolutely that this looks like a poor year for beer. There's no particular reason to believe that continues.

Oliver Graham: Yeah, I mean, we saw a bit of that in Q3, as I mentioned. So I mean, if you look where our Q3 growth came from, it came particularly out of the energy category, you know, a bit like North America. It came out of some of these faster growing categories, like ready-to-drink teas, coffees, wines, waters. We're strong in all those categories. So we definitely saw that. But I think the other piece with Europe, you know, I think we also see, you know, general soft drinks in growth with substitution of plastic and also some two-way systems being substituted still. So it's definitely not reliant on those more innovative categories to get growth in Europe. You can get growth, you know, fully in the core, if you like.

Speaker #5: We're strong in all those categories . So we definitely saw that . But I think the other piece with Europe , you know , I think we also see , you know , general soft drinks in growth with substitution plastic and , and also some two way systems being substituted still .

Speaker #5: So it's definitely not reliant on those more innovative categories to get growth in Europe. You can get growth, you know, fully in the core, if you like.

Oliver Graham: And then I think what we're saying for 2026 is absolutely that, you know, this looks like a, a poor year for beer. There's no particular reason to believe that continues. So, you know, assuming beer stabilizes more to normal growth rates then, you know, we'd be in the 3 to 4% range, and that would be very good growth for all the can makers in Europe.

Speaker #5: And then I think what we're saying for 2026 is absolutely that , you know , this looks like a poor year for beer .

Speaker #5: There's no particular reason to believe that continues . So , you know , assuming beer stabilizes more to normal growth rates than , you know , we'd be in the 3 to 4% range .

Oliver Graham: Assuming beer stabilizes more to normal growth rates, then we'd be in the 3% to 4% range. That would be very good growth for all the can makers in Europe.

Speaker #5: And that would be very good growth for all the cam makers in Europe .

Speaker #12: Thanks for that . If I can just squeeze in one last one , the recapitalization or the the new structure , do you see that at all impacting maybe your operations or does it allow for maybe a different way of thinking about capital allocation or is it just not really that impactful ?

Anthony Pettinari: ... Thanks for that. If I can just squeeze in one last one. The recapitalization or the new structure, do you see that at all impacting maybe your operations, or does it allow for maybe a different way of thinking about capital allocation? Or, is it just not really that impactful? Thanks.

Arun Viswanathan: ... Thanks for that. If I can just squeeze in one last one. The recapitalization or the new structure, do you see that at all impacting maybe your operations, or does it allow for maybe a different way of thinking about capital allocation? Or, is it just not really that impactful? Thanks.

[Analyst 2]: Thanks for that. If I can just squeeze in one last one, the recapitalization or the new structure, do you see that at all impacting maybe your operations, or does it allow for maybe a different way of thinking about capital allocation, or is it just not really that impactful? Thanks.

Speaker #12: Thanks .

Speaker #11: Yeah .

Speaker #5: I think too early to say anything on it . Obviously the transaction hasn't closed . It's progressing well from what we understand , but too early to comment on anything .

Oliver Graham: Yeah. I think it's too early to say anything on it. Obviously, the transaction hasn't closed. It's progressing well from what we understand, but too early to comment on anything, I think, you know, with relation to that.

Oliver Graham: I think too early to say anything on it. Obviously, the transaction hasn't closed. It's progressing well from what we understand, but too early to comment on anything, I think, you know, with relation to that.

Speaker #5: I think, you know, with relation to that.

Speaker #11: Thanks .

Anthony Pettinari: Thanks.

Arun Viswanathan: Thanks.

[Analyst 2]: Thanks.

Operator 4: We'll go next to Mike Roxland with Truist Securities.

Operator: We'll go next to Mike Roxland with Truist Securities.

Speaker #3: We'll go next to Mike Rockland with Truist Securities .

Operator: We'll go next to Michael Roxland with Truist Securities.

Speaker #13: Yeah . Thank you Ali Stefan and Steve for taking my questions . And congrats on all the progress . Thank just I just wanted to follow up on comment .

Michael Roxland: Yeah. Thank you, Ollie, Stefan, and Stephen, for taking my questions, and congrats on all the progress.

[Analyst 3]: Yeah, thank you, Oliver, Stefan, and Stephen for taking my questions, and congrats on all the progress.

Oliver Graham: Thank you.

Michael Roxland: Ollie, just, I just wanted to follow up, Ollie, on a comment you made in one of the prior questions about the growth you lost in Europe, and you mentioned this also on the last quarterly call, calling out one or two points of growth in Europe, because you couldn't pivot into smaller formats. You had good growth in soft drinks and energy, but given your existing beer position, which you noted is 40+% in Europe, you couldn't make that transition. So can you just tell us how you expect to make that transition? How you expect to become a little bit more nimble to target those growth categories, to maybe try to minimize beer? Obviously, it didn't sound like you did that as...

Oliver Graham: Thank you.

[Analyst 3]: Ollie, I just wanted to follow up, Ollie, on the comment you made in one of the prior questions about the growth you lost in Europe. You mentioned this also on the last quarterly call, calling out one or two points of growth in Europe because you couldn't pivot into smaller formats. You had good growth in soft drinks and energy, but given your existing beer position, which you noted is 40+% in Europe, you couldn't make that transition. Can you just tell us how you expect to make that transition, how you expect to become a little bit more nimble to target those growth categories, to maybe try to minimize beer? Obviously, it didn't sound like you did that as you didn't make much of a shift in Q3, but can you tell us how you're going to ultimately do that before Q4 or early 2026?

Speaker #13: You mentioned in one of the prior questions about the growth you lost in Europe. You also called this out on the last quarterly call, noting one or two points of growth in Europe because you couldn't pivot into smaller formats.

Speaker #13: Good , good growth in soft drinks and energy . But given your existing beer position , which which you noted is 40% in Europe , you couldn't make that transition .

Speaker #13: So can you just tell us how you expect to make that transition , how you expect to become a little bit more nimble to target those growth categories , to maybe try to minimize beer ?

Speaker #13: Obviously , it didn't sound like you did that . You know , you didn't make much of a shift in three . Q but can you tell us how going to ultimately do that ?

Michael Roxland: You know, you didn't make much of a shift in Q3, but can you tell us how you're gonna ultimately do that, whether it be Q4, early 2026, how you're pivoting your mix to capture stronger growth and markets relative to beer in Europe, please? Thank you.

Speaker #13: But before Q early 2026 , how you're pivoting your mix to capture stronger growth and markets relative to beer in Europe , please .

[Analyst 3]: How are you pivoting your mix to capture stronger growth and markets relative to beer in Europe, please? Thank you.

Speaker #13: Thank you .

Speaker #11: Sure .

Oliver Graham: Sure. Yeah, sure. So look, we're doing a couple of projects in the network. You know, converting lines into those sizes, making lines flexible, to allow us to be more agile in the season. So yeah, we've got a couple of projects on the books for Q4, Q1, that'll then have impact and put us in a better position in Q2, Q3 next year. And then obviously, any capacity we're building out in the next few years, we'll make sure we're covering, you know, the growth sizes in the market. So we think we'll be in pretty good shape, you know, once we do these next few projects.

Oliver Graham: Sure. We're doing a couple of projects in the network, converting lines into those sizes, making lines flexible to allow us to be more agile in the season. We've got a couple of projects on the books for Q4, Q1 that will then have impact and put us in a better position in Q2, Q3 next year. Obviously, any capacity we're building out in the next few years, we'll make sure we're covering the growth sizes in the market. We think we'll be in pretty good shape once we do these next few projects.

Speaker #5: Yeah , sure . So look , we're doing a couple of projects in the network . You know , converting lines into those sizes , making lines flexible to allow us to be more agile in the season .

Speaker #5: So yeah , we've got a couple of projects on the books for , for Q4 , Q1 that will then have impact and be put us in a better position in Q2 , Q3 next year .

Speaker #5: And then obviously any capacity we're building out in the next few years will will make sure we're covering , you know , the growth sizes in the market .

Speaker #5: So, we think we'll be in pretty good shape. You know, once we do these next few projects.

Speaker #13: Got it . And when you think about some of the conversions that you're doing or the flexibility that you're adding , when you when you add new lines , I guess , are you going to are you going to build those new lines with this functionality , with this flexibility to be able to switch , you know , sizes more , more easily in case market dynamics change ?

[Analyst 3]: Got it. When you think about some of the conversions that you're doing or the flexibility that you're adding, when you add new lines, I guess, are you going to build those new lines with this functionality, with this flexibility to be able to switch sizes more easily in case market dynamics change?

Michael Roxland: Got it. And when you think about some of the conversions that you're doing or the flexibility that you're adding, like, when you add new lines, I guess, are you gonna, are you gonna build those new lines with this functionality, with this flexibility to be able to switch, you know, sizes more easily, in case market dynamics change?

Speaker #5: Yes , definitely . I mean , it costs a lot less if you do it at the beginning than when you try and retrofit , especially when you try and retrofit much older lines .

Oliver Graham: Yes, definitely. I mean, it costs a lot less if you do it at the beginning than when you try and retrofit, especially when you try and retrofit much older lines. Absolutely, I think it makes a lot of sense at the minute. The market's quite dynamic, with different products coming to market, and we've seen in different summers different products doing better or worse. It definitely makes sense for us as we build out new capacity to put that flexibility into the lines for sure.

Oliver Graham: Yes, definitely. I mean, it costs a lot less if you do it at the beginning than when you try and retrofit, especially when you try and retrofit much older lines. So absolutely. I think, you know, it makes a lot of sense at the minute. Yeah, the market's quite dynamic, you know, with different products coming to market, and we've seen in different summers, different products doing better or worse. So yeah, it definitely makes sense for us as we build out new capacity to put that flexibility into the lines, for sure.

Speaker #5: So absolutely , I think , you know , it makes a lot of sense at the minute . The market's quite dynamic , you know , with different products coming to market .

Speaker #5: And we've seen in different summers different products doing better or worse. So, yeah, it definitely makes sense for us, as we build out new capacity, to put that flexibility into the lines.

Speaker #5: For sure .

Speaker #13: Got it . Okay , then my last question is on North America , you mentioned the network issue has been resolved and your your main optimistic on the metal supply issue resolving itself at some point .

[Analyst 3]: Got it. Okay. My last question is on North America. You mentioned the network issue has been resolved, and you remain optimistic on the metal supply issue resolving itself at some point. Especially, is there a risk to that 1% to 2% growth that you're targeting for North America next year should these metal supply issues persist into 2026?

Michael Roxland: Got it. Okay, and then my last question is on North America. You mentioned the network issue has been resolved, and you're, you remain optimistic on the metal supply issue resolving itself at some point. But specifically, you know, is there a risk to that 1 to 2% growth you're targeting for North America next year, should these metal supply issues persist into 2026?

Speaker #13: But especially , you know , is there a risk to that 1 to 2% growth you're targeting for North America next year ? Should these metal supply issues persist into 2026 ?

Speaker #11: Yeah , I guess .

Oliver Graham: Yeah, I guess just to be clear, the 1% to 2% is the market growth, right? We're saying we expect to be a bit softer than that. I don't see a risk to the industry or to ourselves in terms of metal supply next year. We have one of the two new mills ramping up as we speak. That's extremely helpful to the situation. We expect the operational issues that have been suffered by Novelis to be resolved. They're working very hard to address them. Equally, anybody that's in the market is sourcing other sources of aluminum and successfully doing so. I think with the flexibility we all have in our supply chain with multiple sources of supply, with the fixes they're doing, and with the new mill ramping up, I don't see a risk to industry volumes or AMP volumes from metal supply in 2026.

Oliver Graham: Yeah, I guess, Mike, just to be clear, the 1 to 2% is the market growth rate, so we're saying we expect to be a bit softer than that. I don't see a risk to the industry or to ourselves in terms of metal supply next year. So obviously, we have 1 of the 2 new mills ramping up as we speak. That's extremely helpful to the situation. We expect the operational issues that have been suffered by, you know, by Novelis to be resolved. Obviously, they're working very hard to address them. And then equally, we've all, you know, anybody that's in the market is sourcing other, you know, sources of aluminum and successfully doing so.

Speaker #5: Just to be clear, the 1% to 2% is the market growth rate. So, we're saying we expect to be a bit softer than that.

Speaker #5: I don't see a risk to the industry or to ourselves in terms of metal supply . Next year . So obviously we have one of the two new mills ramping up as we speak .

Speaker #5: That's extremely helpful to the situation . We expect the operational issues that have been suffered by , you know , by Novellus to be resolved .

Speaker #5: Obviously , they're working very hard to address them . And then equally , we've all , you know , anybody that's in in the market is is sourcing other , you know , sources of aluminium and successfully doing so .

Speaker #5: So I think with the flexibility we all have in our supply chain with multiple sources of supply , with the fixes they're doing and with the new mill ramping up , I don't I don't see a risk to the industry volumes or AMP volumes from metal supply in 2026 .

Oliver Graham: So I think with the flexibility we all have in our supply chain, with multiple sources of supply, with the fixes they're doing, and with the new mill ramping up, I don't, I don't see a risk to industry volumes or AMP volumes from metal supply in 2026.

Speaker #13: Got it. Thank you very much. I appreciate all the color.

Michael Roxland: Got it. Thank you very much. Appreciate all the color.

[Analyst 3]: Got it. Thank you very much. I appreciate all the color.

Speaker #11: Thanks , Mike .

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Mike.

Speaker #3: We'll go next to Anthony Pettinari with Citi .

Operator: We'll go next to Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

Operator 4: We'll go next to Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

Operator: We'll go next to Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

Speaker #14: Good morning, all. I think you... Hey, I think you... You talked about kind of a bad year in beer in Europe.

Anthony Pettinari: Good morning. Ollie, I think you, you know, you talked about kind of a bad year in beer in Europe, maybe not expected to repeat next year. And I'm just wondering if you can talk a little bit more about sort of the puts and takes there in terms of what you think really drove the weakness in Europe this year, whether it was, you know, consumer, weather. And then, I mean, in North America, there's been a lot of discussion around secular pressure on beer, given lifestyle changes, especially with younger consumers. Does that have a parallel in Europe, or just wondering if you can kind of give us your big picture thoughts on beer into next year?

[Analyst 3]: Good morning. Ollie, I think you talked about kind of a bad year in beer in Europe, maybe not expected to repeat next year. I'm just wondering if you can talk a little bit more about the puts and takes there in terms of what you think really drove the weakness in Europe this year, whether it was consumer or weather. In North America, there's been a lot of discussion around secular pressure on beer, given lifestyle changes, especially with younger consumers. Does that have a parallel in Europe? I'm just wondering if you can give us your big picture thoughts on beer into next year.

Speaker #14: Maybe not expected to repeat next year . And I'm just wondering if you can talk a little bit more about sort of the puts and takes .

Speaker #14: There in terms of what you think really drove the weakness in Europe this year , whether it was consumer weather . And then , I mean , in North America , there's been a lot of discussion around secular pressure on beer given lifestyle changes , especially with younger consumers .

Speaker #14: Does that have a parallel in Europe or just wondering if you can kind of give us your big thought , big picture thoughts on on beer into next year ?

Speaker #11: Yeah , yeah . Look .

Oliver Graham: Yeah. Yeah, look, I think it's definitely too early to call a secular shift in Europe. I mean, we don't have the depth of other products that we see in the North American market, other alcohol products with similar drinking characteristics that you have in North America. I think we've had a poor year. I don't think weather's really had it. I think there's definitely some consumer weakness, which is hitting the category. You know, we only generally work out later what the players did, you know, were they promoting, not promoting? So we don't have all the data on that yet. So I think, you know, my view on this is that it's a big category, it's got some very strong players...

Oliver Graham: Yeah, I think it's definitely too early to call a secular shift in Europe. I mean, we don't have the depth of other products that we see in the North American market, other alcohol products with similar drinking characteristics that you have in North America. I think we've had a poor year. I don't think weather's really at it. I think there's definitely some consumer weakness, which is hitting the category. We only generally work out later what the players did, you know, were they promoting, not promoting. We don't have all the data on that yet. My view on this is that it's a big category. It's got some very strong players. I think they won't be happy with this year at all and that they'll be putting in place strategies to reverse that into 2026.

Speaker #5: I think it's definitely too early to call a secular shift in Europe. I mean, we don't have the depth of other products that we see in the North American market.

Speaker #5: Other alcohol products with similar drinking characteristics that that you have in North America . I think we've had a poor year . I don't think weather's really had it .

Speaker #5: I think there's definitely some consumer weakness which is hitting the the category , you know , we only generally work out later what what the players did , you know , were they promoting not promoting .

Speaker #5: So we don't have all the data on that yet . So I think , you know , my view on this is that it's a big category .

Speaker #5: It's got some very strong players, and I think they won't be happy with this year at all. They'll be putting in place strategies to reverse that into 2026.

Oliver Graham: I think they won't be happy with this year at all, and that they'll be putting in place strategies to reverse that into 2026. And as I say, I don't. I think it's, it's definitely too early to call any kind of secular shift in, in European drinking behavior.

Speaker #5: And as I say , I don't I think it's definitely too early to call any kind of secular shift in in . European drinking behavior .

Oliver Graham: I think it's definitely too early to call any kind of secular shift in European drinking behavior.

Speaker #14: Got it , got it . Oh , that's helpful . And then based on kind of an early view , do you expect that the aluminum conversion cost headwinds maybe continue in Europe next year ?

Anthony Pettinari: Got it. Got it. No, that's helpful. And then based on kind of an early view, do you expect that the aluminum conversion cost headwinds maybe continue in Europe next year, or are there maybe some savings that we should kind of think about that could, you know, help you reach that sort of normalized operating leverage? Or just h-

[Analyst 3]: Got it. That's helpful. Based on kind of an early view, do you expect that the aluminum conversion cost headwinds maybe continue in Europe next year, or are there maybe some savings that we should kind of think about that could help you reach that sort of normalized operating leverage, or just how should we think about that?

Speaker #14: Or are there maybe some savings that we should kind of think about that could , you know , help you reach that sort of normalized operating leverage or just how should we think about that ?

Oliver Graham: Yeah.

Anthony Pettinari: How should we think about that?

Speaker #5: I don't .

Speaker #11: Think .

Speaker #5: We think there's necessarily savings , but there's no question that the the step up that we had this year , moderates very significantly .

Oliver Graham: I don't think we think there's necessarily savings, but there's no question that the step up that we had this year moderates very significantly. This was our step up. If you look back over 2023, 2024, we really held it back despite the increase in energy costs that had flowed through. This was where we took it. The European market is tight on aluminum. I don't see a huge savings opportunity there until there is more capacity put into the market. It needs that. Fortunately, there are significant import routes that are pretty competitive. I don't also see a major headwind, and we'll be exploiting all those routes. No savings, I think, but a definite moderating of some of the headwinds that we had this year.

Oliver Graham: I don't think we think there's necessarily savings, but there's no question that the step up that we had this year moderates very significantly. So this was our step up. You know, I think if you look back over 2023, 2024, we really held it back, despite the increase in energy costs that had flowed through. So this is where we took it. I mean, the European market is tight on aluminum, so, you know, I don't see a huge savings opportunity there until there is more capacity put into the market; it needs that. But fortunately, there are, you know, significant import routes that are pretty competitive. And so I don't also see a major headwind, and we'll be exploiting all those routes.

Speaker #5: So this was our step up . You know , I think if you look back over 2324 , we really held it back despite the increase in energy costs that had flowed through .

Speaker #5: So this was where we took it . I mean , the European market is tight on aluminium . So , you know , I don't see a huge savings opportunity there until there is more capacity put into the market .

Speaker #5: It needs that . But fortunately there are , you know , significant import routes that are pretty competitive . And so I don't also see a major headwind .

Speaker #5: And we'll be exploiting all those routes . But yeah , no savings I think . But a definite moderating of some of the headwinds that we had this year .

Oliver Graham: But yeah, no savings, I think, but a definite moderating of some of the headwinds that we had this year.

Speaker #14: Okay . That's helpful . I'll turn it over .

Anthony Pettinari: Okay, that's helpful. I'll turn it over.

[Analyst 3]: Okay, that's helpful. I'll turn it over.

Speaker #5: Thanks , Anthony .

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Anthony.

Speaker #3: We'll go next to Gabe , Katie with Wells Fargo Securities .

Operator 4: We'll go next to Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities.

Operator: We'll go next to Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities.

Speaker #8: Holly . Stefan .

Gabe Hajde: Oli, Stefan, good morning.

[Analyst 4]: Ollie, Stefan, good morning.

Speaker #15: Good morning . Okay . I think earlier this week was the first time that we had heard that there might have been a little bit of movement in terms of contracts and maybe customers , maybe in the private label side , you mentioned next year that there's going to be , again for for your system , some changes and maybe underperform the market a tad .

Oliver Graham: Hey, Gabe.

Gabe Hajde: I think earlier this week was the first time that we had heard that there might have been a little bit of movement in terms of contracts and maybe customers, maybe on the private label side. You mentioned next year that there's gonna be, again, for your system, some changes and maybe underperform the market a tad. I'm just curious, as you're going through those negotiations with customers, what are their talking points as it relates to-- I mean, you already called out proximity to customer filling sites, so that makes sense to me. But just price, service levels, quality, et cetera, that's informing some of those decisions.

[Analyst 4]: I think earlier this week was the first time that we had heard that there might have been a little bit of movement in terms of contracts and maybe customers, maybe on the private label side. You mentioned next year that there's going to be, again, for your system, some changes and maybe underperform the market a tad. I'm just curious, as you're going through those negotiations with customers, what are their talking points as it relates to, I mean, you already called out proximity to customer filling sites, so that makes sense to me. Just price or service levels, quality, etc., that's informing some of those decisions.

Speaker #15: I'm just curious , as you're going through those negotiations with customers , what are they're talking points as it relates to ? I mean , you already called out proximity to customer filling sites , so that makes sense to me .

Speaker #15: But just price or service levels , quality , etc. that's informing some of those decisions .

Speaker #6: Sure .

Speaker #5: Yeah . Look , as I said in the remarks , I think that by far the dominant factor that we've seen has been this footprint footprint issue .

Oliver Graham: Sure, yeah. Look, as I said in the remarks, I think that by far the dominant factor that we've seen has been this footprint issue. As I said, you know, we had planned back in 2021, 2022 to put some capacity in the north, and then, you know, we had people were very tight, so we had a contract that we served out of, you know, off a long freight lane. Then when we chose not to put the capacity in, obviously, we still had the contract for a few years, but then when it runs out, it's naturally going back to a closer chem plant.

Oliver Graham: Sure. Yeah. Look, as I said in the remarks, I think that by far the dominant factor that we've seen has been this footprint issue. As I said, we had planned back in 2021, 2022 to put some capacity in the north, and then we had people who were very tight. We had a contract that we served out of, off a long freight lane. When we chose not to put the capacity in, obviously, we still had the contract for a few years, but when it runs out, it's naturally going back to a closer can plant. As I said, we had the opposite effect where some of the new capacity that's come to North America obviously changes footprint dynamics for customers. They get a plant that's actually nearer to them than they used to have, and then our legacy plant is placed.

Speaker #5: As I said , you know , we we had planned back in 21 , 22 to put some capacity in the north . And then , you know , we had people were very tight .

Speaker #5: So we had a contract that we served out of , you know , off a long freight lane . Then when we chose not to put the capacity in , obviously we still had the contract for a few years .

Speaker #5: But then when it runs out , it's naturally going back to a closer cam plant and then , as I said , we had the opposite effect where some of the new capacity that's come to North America , obviously changes footprint dynamics for customers .

Oliver Graham: Then, as I said, we had the opposite effect, where some of the new capacity that's come to North America obviously changes footprint dynamics for customers, so they get a plant that's actually nearer to them than they used to have, and then the, our legacy plant, you know, is, is placed. Then we also had one situation with a customer that, you know, halfway through the process, they had their own footprint review, which resulted in a filling location that we serve closing down. So I think if we look at the overall reason for softness in 2026, it's, you know, majority is down to footprint.

Speaker #5: So, they get a plant that's actually closer to them than they used to have, and that our legacy plant, you know, is placed.

Speaker #5: And then we also had one situation with a customer that, you know, halfway through the process, they had their own footprint review, which resulted in a filling location that we serve closing down.

Oliver Graham: We also had one situation with a customer that, halfway through the process, had their own footprint review, which resulted in a filling location that we saw closing down. I think if we look at the overall reason for softness in 2026, the majority is down to footprint. I think the market is competitive, but I think it's normally competitive, maybe after a few years where it was so tight through COVID. I think it's in a normal competitive environment. We don't hear anything particular on the service. We generally get very high ratings on service and very good feedback for relationship management and customer support. I think predominantly we're talking about footprint-related changes and the fact that there is some capacity in the market for people to make moves.

Speaker #5: So I think if we look at the overall reason for softness in 26 , it's , you know , majority is down , down to footprint .

Speaker #5: I think the market is competitive . But I think it's normally competitive . You know , maybe after a few years where it was so tight , you know through Covid .

Oliver Graham: I think the market is competitive, but I think it's normally competitive, you know, maybe after a few years where it was so tight, you know, through COVID, but I think it's, you know, in a normal competitive environment. We don't hear anything particular on, on the service. We generally get very high ratings on service and very good feedback for relationship management and customer support. So, so I think, you know, predominantly we're talking about footprint related changes, and the fact that there is some capacity in the market for people to make moves.

Speaker #5: But I think it's , you know , in a normal competitive environment and we don't hear anything particular on on service . We generally get very high ratings on service and very good feedback for relationship management and customer support .

Speaker #5: So so I think , you know , predominantly we're talking about footprint related changes and the fact that there is some capacity in the market for people to make moves .

Speaker #15: Okay . Two questions on aluminum . Again , earlier this week , I think it was mentioned that all in aluminum costs kind of crept up above .

Gabe Hajde: Okay. Two questions on aluminum. Again, earlier this week, I think it was mentioned that all-in aluminum costs kind of crept up above, I think, all-time highs that we even saw during the pandemic. I think we were talking about maybe $0.015 or so of inflation just from raw material costs. That's maybe closer to $0.03 now if we were to mark to market, and again, I appreciate your customers' hedge and probably roll that in, you know, three years in advance, so it's not gonna all hit at once. But I'm just curious, when we've seen this type of inflation through the system, is it typically do they typically address that in a annual basis with pricing on the shelf?

[Analyst 4]: Okay. Two questions on aluminum. Again, earlier this week, I think it was mentioned that all-in aluminum costs kind of crept up above, I think, all-time highs that we even saw during the pandemic. I think we were talking about maybe $0.015 or so of inflation just from raw material costs. That's maybe closer to $0.03 now if we were to mark to market. I appreciate your customers hedge and probably roll that in, you know, three years in advance so it's not going to all hit at once. I'm just curious, when we've seen this type of inflation through the system, do they typically address that on an annual basis with pricing on the shelf? Relatedly, we observed a decent amount of promotional activity, especially on the carbonated soft drink and energy drink side in the first half of this year, maybe even the first eight, nine months.

Speaker #15: I think all time highs that we even saw during the pandemic . I think we were talking about maybe a penny and a half or so of , of inflation just from raw material costs .

Speaker #15: That's maybe closer to $0.03 . Now , if we were to mark to market . And again , I appreciate your customers hedge and probably roll that in .

Speaker #15: You know , three years in advance . So it's not going to all hit at once . But I'm just curious when we've seen this type of inflation through the system , is it typically do they typically address that in a annual basis with pricing on the shelf .

Speaker #15: And then maybe relatedly , we observed a decent amount of promotional activity , especially on the carbonated soft drink and energy drink side in the first half of this year , maybe even the first 8 to 9 months .

Gabe Hajde: And then maybe relatedly, we observed a decent amount of promotional activity, especially on the carbonated soft drink and energy drink side in the first half of this year, maybe even the first 8, 9 months. Should we be mindful or thinking about anything you mentioned, volumes or sell into the channel decelerating a little bit in the second half here, versus the first half? Is there any sort of dynamic in the first half of 2026 that we should be mindful of, maybe industry volumes down in the first half and maybe growing in the second half, just given the tough comps?

Speaker #15: Should we be mindful or thinking about anything you mentioned volumes or sell into the channel decelerating a little bit in the second half here versus the first half , is there any sort of dynamic in the first half of 26 that we could be mindful of ?

[Analyst 4]: Should we be mindful or thinking about anything? You mentioned volumes or sell into the channel decelerating a little bit in the second half here versus the first half. Is there any sort of dynamic in the first half of 2026 that we could be mindful of, maybe volumes, actually, industry volumes down in the first half and maybe growing again in the second half, just given the tough comps?

Speaker #15: Maybe volumes? Actually, industry volumes were down in the first half and maybe growing in the second half, just given the tough comps.

Speaker #5: Yeah , I think it's a good question . Look , I think you can't say there's no impact from from that level of increase of aluminum pricing .

Oliver Graham: Yeah, that's a good question. Look, I think you can't say there's no impact from that level of increase of aluminum pricing. I think you have to assume there's some risk of inflation on the shelf and that that has some impact on volumes because the categories are elastic. Trying to predict exactly what our customers and retailers do with that is a fool's game. I think it depends a lot on where they are. They've taken a lot of price the last few years, and they've probably got some firepower, which I think they deployed this year. I think not because of any, personally, I don't think it's because of any particular sort of tariff-related insights. I think it's more that they have got that firepower in their margin structures, and they can use it to drive volumes.

Oliver Graham: Yeah, I think it's a good question. Look, I think you can't say there's no impact from that level of increase of aluminum pricing. So I think you have to assume there's some risk of inflation on the shelf, and that has some impact on volumes because the categories are elastic. I think trying to predict exactly what our customers and retailers do with that is a fool's game. I think it depends a lot on where they are. They've taken a lot of price the last few years... And so they've probably got some firepower, which I think they deployed this year. I think not because of any; personally, I don't think it's because of any particular sort of tariff-related insights.

Speaker #5: So I think you have to assume there's some risk of inflation on the shelf . And that that has some impact on on volumes because the categories are elastic .

Speaker #5: I think trying to predict exactly what our customers and retailers do with that is a fool's game . I think it depends a lot on where they are .

Speaker #5: They've taken a lot of price the last few years , and so they've probably got some firepower , which I think they deployed this year .

Speaker #5: I think not because of any . Personally , I don't think it's because of any particular sort of tariff related insights . I think it's more that they have got that firepower in their margin structures , and they can use it to drive volumes , and they are looking to balance cans versus plastic in their portfolios for all sorts of reasons .

Oliver Graham: I think it's more that they have got that firepower in their margin structures, and they can use it to drive volumes, and they are looking to balance cans versus plastic in their portfolios for all sorts of reasons. So I think predicting exactly what happens in 2026 is, is very difficult to do. We're maintaining a, a 1 to 2% stance on North America growth for next year with our softer, you know, and that's probably because we are being a little bit cautious, cautious around that issue. So yeah, I think something, something is flowing through. You can't say it has no impact, but I think that hopefully we, we see what we're expecting, which is that sort of growth rate.

Oliver Graham: They are looking to balance cans versus plastic in their portfolios for all sorts of reasons. I think predicting exactly what happens in 2026 is very difficult to do. We're maintaining a 1% to 2% stance on North America growth for next year with us softer. You know, and that's probably because we are being a little bit cautious around that issue. Yeah, I think something is flowing through. You can't say it has no impact, but I think that hopefully we see what we're expecting, which is that sort of growth rate.

Speaker #5: So I think predicting exactly what happens in 26 is very difficult to do . We're maintaining a 1 to 2% stance on North America growth for next year with our softer , you know , and that's probably because we are being a little bit cautious , cautious around that issue .

Speaker #5: So yeah , I think something something is flowing through . You can't say it has no impact . But I think that . Hopefully we see what we're expecting , which is that sort of growth rate .

Speaker #15: Well , let's be honest , glass and other substrates are not immune . Right . Like everything has embedded energy costs . So I'm curious .

Gabe Hajde: Well, let's be honest, it's glass and other substrates are not immune, right? Like, everything has embedded energy costs. So, I'm curious-

[Analyst 4]: Glass and other substrates are not immune, right? Like everything has embedded energy costs. So I'm curious.

Speaker #5: Last one , that's a really important . Oh sorry Gabe I was just going to build on that . Right . Which is that every quarter we see that the can is is outgrowing , you know , the other substrates .

Oliver Graham: No, look, I think that's a really important... Oh, sorry, Gabe. I was just gonna build on that, right?

Oliver Graham: No, look, the last ones are really important. Sorry, Gabe, I was just going to build on that, which is that every quarter we see that the can is outgrowing the other substrates. I think you take the sustainability piece, you take the energy cost piece, you take the fundamental cost structure of cans in North America, you look at the recapitalization that we've done as can makers and that our suppliers have done on the can sheet side. I think that the industry is very significantly more efficient than 10 years ago, and that is going to play through into overall cost structures. That's why I'm very bullish about long-term can growth rates in North America. I think there is a little bit of a headwind potentially from the tariff situation in the next 12, 18 months.

Gabe Hajde: Nope.

Oliver Graham: Which is that every quarter-

Gabe Hajde: Yep.

Oliver Graham: -we see that the can is outgrowing, you know, the other substrates. So then I think you take the sustainability piece, you take the energy cost piece, you take the fundamental cost structure of cans in North America, you look at the recapitalization that we've done as can makers and that our suppliers have done on the can sheet side, I think that the industry is very significantly more efficient than ten years ago, and that is gonna play through into overall cost structures. So yeah, that's why I'm very bullish about long-term can growth rates in North America. I think there is a little bit of a headwind potentially from the tariff situation in the next 12, 18 months.

Speaker #5: So then I think you take the sustainability piece , you take the energy cost piece , you take the fundamental cost structure of cans in North America .

Speaker #5: You look at the recapitalization that we've done as can makers and our suppliers have done on the can sheet side. I think that the industry is very significantly more efficient than ten years ago, and that is going to play through into overall cost structures.

Speaker #5: So yeah , that's why I'm very bullish about long term . Can growth rates in North America . I think there is a little bit of a headwind potentially from the tariff situation in the next 12 , 18 months .

Speaker #15: Understood . Last one . And it's just sort of digging into the supply chain a little bit . Obviously it's been I don't know , maybe 40 years that we've had new rolling capacity here in North America .

Gabe Hajde: Understood. Last one, and it's just sort of digging into the supply chain a little bit. Obviously, it's been, I don't know, maybe 40 years that we've had new rolling capacity here in North America. Does that. That does not address any sort of the ingot cost, Midwest Premium cost that's embedded in. This is just more about localizing that can sheet supply, and so there's better efficiency, I guess, from a logistics standpoint. So then we gotta kind of wait to see what happens politically if there's any change for cost structure for aluminum. And then in Europe, we're reading articles about, they're frustrated that they're actually exporting scrap to the US because maybe apparently that's a way to circumvent some of the tariffs.

[Analyst 4]: Understood. Last one, and it's just sort of digging into the supply chain a little bit. Obviously, it's been, I don't know, maybe 40 years that we've had new rolling capacity here in North America. Does that, that does not address any sort of the ingot cost, Midwest premium cost that's embedded in. This is just more about localizing that can sheet supply, and so there's better efficiency, I guess, from a logistics standpoint. We have to kind of wait to see what happens politically if there's any change for cost structure for aluminum. In Europe, we're reading articles about they're frustrated that they're actually exporting scrap to the U.S. because maybe apparently that's a way to circumvent some of the tariffs. Is that coming up in conversations in terms of cost of aluminum or can sheet over in Europe? Thank you. Yeah,

Speaker #15: That does not address any sort of the ingot cost Midwest premium costs that's embedded in this. This is just more about localizing that can sheet supply.

Speaker #15: And so there's there's better efficiency , I guess from the logistics standpoint . So then we got to kind of wait to see what happens politically if there's any change for for cost structure for aluminum .

Speaker #15: And then in Europe we're reading articles about there frustrated that they're actually exporting scrap to the US because maybe apparently that's a way to circumvent some of the tariffs .

Gabe Hajde: Is that coming up in conversations in terms of cost of aluminum or can sheet over in Europe? Thank you.

Speaker #15: Is that coming up in conversations in terms of cost of aluminum or canned sheet over in Europe ? Thank you .

Speaker #5: Yeah . So look I think on North America , obviously those mills are massively helpful to the industry , both in terms of supply but also long term cost structure .

Oliver Graham: Yeah. So look, I think on North America, obviously, those mills are massively helpful to the industry, both in terms of supply but also long-term cost structure, very efficient. Obviously, they had to get investment-grade returns to, to be built, so, but I think those sorts of costs are built into the supply chain now. And so, you know, we don't see major changes. I think they're, you know, they're extremely positive for the industry to have that much domestic supply coming on and stopping a lot of the imports that were needed in North America and generally improving the quality of the, the industry. So that- they're hugely positive, I think. And then in Europe, yeah, look, I think the, the scrap situation isn't helpful, as a way to avoid tariffs.

Operator: Look, I think on North America, obviously those metals are massively helpful to the industry, both in terms of supply, but also long-term cost structure, very efficient. Obviously, they had to get investment-grade returns to be built. I think those sorts of costs are built into the supply chain now, and we don't see major changes. I think they're extremely positive for the industry to have that much domestic supply coming on and stopping a lot of the imports that were needed in North America and generally improving the quality of the industry. They're hugely positive, I think. In Europe, I think the scrap situation isn't helpful as a way to avoid tariffs. Obviously, we were already hearing that the U.S. was very short scrap with issues that have gone on in Mexico and related to China, and that was impacting North American can sheet makers.

Speaker #5: Very efficient . Obviously they had to get investment grade returns to to be built . So but I think those sorts of costs are built into the supply chain .

Speaker #5: Now . And so you know , we don't see major changes . I think , they're you know , they're extremely positive for the industry to have that much domestic supply coming on and stopping a lot of the imports that were needed in North America and generally improving the quality of the of the industry so that they're hugely positive , I think .

Speaker #5: And then in Europe , yeah . Look , I think the scrap situation isn't helpful as a way to avoid tariffs . Obviously , we were already hearing that the US was very short scrap with issues that had gone on in Mexico and related to China , and that was impacting North American can sheet makers .

Oliver Graham: Obviously, we were already hearing that the US was very short scrap with issues that have gone on in Mexico and related to China, and that was impacting North American can sheet makers. So you know, these flows, you know, will, will have impacts, but we don't see them particularly changing, you know, what we're seeing in Europe at the moment. So, so nothing particular to report from that, I think.

Speaker #5: So , you know , these flows , you know , will will have impact , but we don't see them particularly changing . You know , what we're seeing in Europe at the moment .

Operator: These flows will have impacts, but we don't see them particularly changing what we're seeing in Europe at the moment. Nothing particular to report from that, I think.

Speaker #5: So , so nothing particular to report from that . I think .

Speaker #15: Great . Thank you guys and good luck .

Gabe Hajde: Great. Thank you, guys, and good luck.

Operator: Great. Thank you, guys, and good luck.

Speaker #5: Thanks , Gabe .

Oliver Graham: Thanks, Gabe.

Operator: Thanks, Gabe.

Speaker #3: At this time , there are no further questions . I will now turn the call back to Mr. Oliver Graham for any additional or closing remarks .

Operator 3: At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Oliver Graham for any additional or closing remarks.

Operator: At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Oliver Graham for any additional or closing remarks.

Oliver Graham: At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Oliver Graham for any additional or closing remarks.

Speaker #5: Thank you . And thanks to everyone on the call . So just summarizing again , adjusted EBITDA in Q3 grew by 6% at the upper end of our guidance , with both segments in line with expectations and reflecting that resilient performance .

Oliver Graham: Thank you, and thanks to everyone on the call. So just summarizing again, Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 grew by 6% at the upper end of our guidance, with both segments in line with expectations. And reflecting that resilient performance, we're raising our expectations for full year Adjusted EBITDA. So with that, thanks for joining the call, and we look forward to talking to you again at our Q4 results.

Operator: Thank you, and thanks to everyone on the call. Just summarizing again, adjusted EBITDA in Q3 grew by 6% at the upper end of our guidance, with both segments in line with expectations. Reflecting that resilient performance, we're raising our expectations for full-year adjusted EBITDA. With that, thanks for joining the call, and we look forward to talking to you again at our Q4 results.

Speaker #5: We're raising our expectations for full year adjusted EBITDA . So with that , thanks for joining the call and we look forward to talking to you again at our Q4 results .

Speaker #3: This does conclude today's conference . We thank you for your participation .

Operator 3: This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

Operator: This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

Oliver Graham: This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

Operator 1: Please stand by. The conference will begin shortly.

Operator: Please stand by. The conference will begin shortly.

Stephen Lyons: Please stand by. The conference will begin shortly.

Q3 2025 Ardagh Metal Packaging SA Earnings Call

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