Q3 2025 Capital Power Corp Earnings Call
There will be a question and answer session to ask a question. During the session you will need to press star one on your telephone.
Speaker #1: Good day and thank you for standing by . Welcome to the Capitol Power . Third quarter 2025 Analyst Conference Call . At this time , all participants are in a listen only mode .
Operator: Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Capital Power Corporation Third Quarter 2025 Analyst Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising you your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Roy Arthur. Please go ahead, sir.
We'll then hear an automated message of IV, New your hand is raised to withdraw your question. Please press star one again, please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
Speaker #1: After the speaker's presentation , there will be a question and answer session to ask a question . During this session , you will need to press star one one on your telephone .
I would now like to hand, the conference over to your speaker today.
Roy Arthur Please go ahead Sir.
Speaker #1: You will then hear an automated message advising you your hand is raised . To withdraw your question , please press star one one again .
Good morning, everyone. My name is Roy Arthur Vice President strategy planning and Investor Relations for capital power. Thank.
Speaker #1: Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded . I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today . Roy Arthur .
Thank you for joining us today to review, our third quarter 2025 results, which we published earlier today.
Speaker #1: Please go ahead , sir .
Our third quarter report and the presentation for this conference call are available on our website.
Speaker #2: Good morning everyone . My name is Roy Arthur , Vice president , strategy , Planning and Investor Relations for Capitol Power . Thank you for joining us today to review our third quarter 2020 five results , which we published earlier today .
Roy Arthur: Good morning, everyone. My name is Roy Arthur, Vice President, Strategy, Planning, and Investor Relations with Capital Power. Thank you for joining us today to review our third quarter 2025 results, which we published earlier today. Our third quarter report and presentation for this conference call are available on our website. During today's call, our President and CEO, Avik Dey, will provide an update on our business. Following that, Sandra Haskins, our SVP, Finance and CFO, will present a review of the quarter and the financials for the company. Avik will then conclude the formal part of the presentation before we open the floor to questions from analysts in our interactive Q&A. Before we start, I would like to remind everyone that certain statements about future events made on the call are forward-looking in nature and are based on certain assumptions and analysis made by the company.
During today's call are president and CEO, Eric Dey, who will provide an update on our business.
Following that Sandra Haskins, our SVP of finance and CFO will present, a review of the quarter and the financials for the company.
Speaker #2: Our third quarter report and presentation for this conference call are available on our website . During today's call . Our president and CEO , Avik Dey will provide an update on our business .
<unk> will then conclude the formal part of the presentation before we open the floor to questions from analysts and our interactive Q&A.
Before we start I would like to remind everyone that certain statements about future events made on the call are forward looking in nature and are based on certain assumptions and analysis made by the company.
Speaker #2: Following that , Sandra Haskins , our SVP , finance and CFO will present a review of the quarter and the financials for the company will then conclude the formal part of the presentation before we open the floor to questions from analysts in our interactive Q&A .
Actual results could differ materially from the company's expectations due to various risks uncertainties associated with our business.
Speaker #2: Before we start , I would like to remind everyone that certain statements about future events made on the call are forward looking in nature and are based on certain assumptions and analysis made by the company .
Please refer to our cautionary statement on forward looking information on slide three of our regulatory filings available on SEDAR.
Speaker #2: Actual results could differ materially from the company's expectations due to various risks and uncertainties associated with our business . Please refer to our cautionary statement on forward looking information on slide three of our regulatory filings , available on Cd-R in today's discussion , we will be referring to various non-GAAP financial measures and ratios also noted on slide three .
Roy Arthur: Actual results could differ materially from the company's expectations due to various risks and uncertainties associated with our business. Please refer to our cautionary statement on forward-looking information on slide three of our regulatory filings available on CDAR. In today's discussion, we will be referring to various non-GAAP financial measures and ratios also noted on slide three. These measures are not defined financial measures according to GAAP and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAAP and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures used in other enterprises. These measures are provided to complement the GAAP measures which are included in the analysis of the company's results from management's perspective. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their nearest GAAP measures can be found in our integrated annual report.
In today's discussion, we will be referring to various non-GAAP financial measures and ratios also noted on slide three.
These measures are not defined financial measures. According to GAAP and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAAP and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures used in other enterprises.
These measures are provided to complement the GAAP measures, which are included in the analysis of the company's results from management's perspective.
Speaker #2: These measures are not defined . Financial measures according to GAAP and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAAP and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures used in other enterprises .
Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their nearest GAAP measures can be found in our integrated annual report.
Speaker #2: These measures are provided to complement the GAAP measures which are included in the analysis of the company's results . From management's perspective , reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their nearest GAAP measures can be found in our integrated Annual Report .
We acknowledge that capital Power's head office in Edmonton is located within the traditional and contemporary home of many indigenous peoples of the Treaty six region and May Tee homeland we.
We acknowledge the diverse indigenous communities that are in these areas.
Speaker #2: We acknowledge that capital Power's head office in Edmonton is located within the traditional and contemporary home of many indigenous peoples of the Treaty six region and Métis homeland .
Their presence continues to enrich the community and our lives as we learn more about the indigenous history of the land on which we live and work.
Roy Arthur: We acknowledge that Capital Power's head office in Edmonton is located within the traditional and contemporary home of many Indigenous peoples of the Treaty Six Region and Métis homeland. We acknowledge the diverse Indigenous communities that are in these areas. Their presence continues to enrich the community and our lives as we learn more about the Indigenous history of the lands on which we live and work. With that, I will hand it over to Avik.
With that I will hand, it over to Adam.
Speaker #2: We acknowledge the diverse Indigenous communities that are in these areas. Their presence continues to enrich the community and our lives as we learn more about the Indigenous history of the land on which we live and work.
Thank you Roy good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us before I begin I'd like to thank and recognize our people who will power our strategy forward and deliver on our growth and long term resilience each and every quarter. The success, we have achieved would not be possible without their efforts.
Speaker #2: With that , I will hand it over to Avik Dey .
Speaker #3: Thank you . Roy . Good morning everyone , and thank you for joining us . Before I begin , I'd like to thank and recognize our people who power our strategy forward and deliver on our growth and long term resilience .
Avik Dey: Thank you, Roy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Before I begin, I'd like to thank and recognize our people who power our strategy forward and deliver on our growth and long-term resilience each and every quarter. The success we have achieved would not be possible without their efforts. I will also take a moment to acknowledge the upcoming retirement of Sandra Haskins, whose leadership and contributions have been instrumental to Capital Power's success. I'll share a few more words about Sandra at the end of today's presentation. With that, I will now review Capital Power's 2025 third quarter results. This quarter perfectly highlights our strategy in action with execution and value creation on multiple fronts, including contracts for assets with terms to 2040 and beyond in Canada and the U.S., and more recontracting opportunities in the near term.
We'll also take a moment to acknowledge the upcoming retirement of Sandra Haskins, who his leadership and contributions have been instrumental to capital Power's success I'll share a few more words about Sandra at the end of today's presentation with that I will now review capital Power's 2025 third quarter results this quarter perfectly highlights.
Speaker #3: Each and every quarter . The success we have achieved would not be possible without their efforts . I will also take a moment to acknowledge the upcoming retirement of Sandra Haskins , whose leadership and contributions have been instrumental to Capital Power's success .
Our strategy in action with execution and value creation on multiple fronts, including contracts for assets with terms to 2040 and beyond in Canada, and the U S and more re contracting opportunities in the near term. These efforts clearly demonstrate our ability to enhance contracted net okay.
Speaker #3: I'll share a few more words about Sandra at the end of today's presentation . With that , I will now review Capital Power's 2025 third quarter results .
Speaker #3: This quarter perfectly highlights our strategy and action with execution and value creation on multiple fronts , including contracts for assets with terms to 20 , 40 and beyond .
Volume price and duration.
This quarter, we have further strengthened our position as one of North America's leading independent power producers key highlights for the third quarter include advancing commercial optimization with the execution of a long term contract with improved economics for Midland Cogeneration venture this extension enhances vis.
Speaker #3: In Canada and the US , and more . Recontracting opportunities in the near term . These efforts clearly demonstrate our ability to enhance connectedness across volume , price and duration .
Avik Dey: These efforts clearly demonstrate our ability to enhance contractedness across volume, price, and duration. This quarter, we have further strengthened our position as one of North America's leading independent power producers. Key highlights for the third quarter include advancing commercial optimization with the execution of a long-term contract with improved economics for Midland Cogeneration Venture. This extension enhances visibility of future cash flows and demonstrates our ability to unlock value for existing natural gas generation. Also, commissioning our first two Ontario battery storage projects at York and Gorway, adding 170 megawatts of capacity contracted through 2047. Delivered on time and under budget, these projects enhance our contractedness, portfolio diversification, and Ontario's grid reliability. With an excellent safety record after nearly 12 months of construction, these projects are a testament to our project execution capabilities.
Speaker #3: This quarter, we have further strengthened our position as one of North America's leading independent power producers. Key highlights for the third quarter include advancing commercial optimization with the execution of a long-term contract with improved economics for Midland Cogeneration Venture.
The ability of future cash flows and demonstrates our ability to unlock value for existing natural gas generation.
Also commissioning our first two Ontario battery storage project at York in Galway, adding 170 megawatts of capacity contracted through 2047.
Speaker #3: This extension enhances visibility of future cash flows and demonstrates our ability to unlock value for existing natural gas generation . Also , commissioning our first two Ontario battery Storage projects at York and Goreway , adding 170MW of capacity contracted through 2047 , delivered on time and under budget .
Delivered on time and under budget these projects enhance our contract portfolio.
Portfolio diversification and Ontario's grid reliability with an excellent safety record after nearly 12 months of construction. These projects are a testament to our project execution capabilities.
Speaker #3: These projects enhance our contracted portfolio diversification and Ontario's grid reliability with an excellent safety record . After nearly 12 months of construction . These projects are a testament to our project execution capabilities .
Continued construction of three solar projects in North Carolina, all on schedule and within budget, demonstrating our commitment to enhancing our renewables platform.
The successful financial integration of our newly acquired PJM asset Hamas station enrolling health the largest acquisition in our history. These facilities performed above expectations in their first full quarter contributing meaningfully to adjusted EBITDA and adding over 45, new employees and contractors.
Speaker #3: Continued construction of three solar projects in North Carolina , all on schedule and within budget , demonstrating our commitment to enhancing our renewables platform .
Avik Dey: Continued construction of three solar projects in North Carolina, all on schedule and within budget, demonstrating our commitment to enhancing our renewables platform. The successful financial integration of our newly acquired PJM assets, Hummel Station and Rolling Hills, the largest acquisition in our history. These facilities performed above expectations in their first full quarter, contributing meaningfully to adjusted EBITDA and adding over 45 new employees and contractors to our legacy of operational expertise. Finally, we generated 13.4 terawatt-hours across our portfolio and completed 65% of planned outage days for the year. As we talk through our accomplishments, a consistent theme emerges of long-term lower-risk growth across our portfolio. At the core, we have this compounding growth of energy, expertise, and knowledge from the people at Capital Power. Together, these achievements reinforce our team's ability to consistently deliver, diversify our portfolio, and execute with discipline to drive long-term shareholder value.
Speaker #3: The successful financial integration of our newly acquired PJM assets , Hummel station and Rolling Hills , the largest acquisition in our history . These facilities performed above expectations in their first full quarter , contributing meaningfully to adjusted EBITDA and adding over 45 new employees and contractors to our legacy of operational expertise .
Two our legacy of operational expertise.
And finally, we generated $13 four terawatt hours across our portfolio completed 65% of planned outage days for the year.
As we talk through our accomplishments that consistent theme emerges of long term lower risk growth across our portfolio and at the core we have this palm pounding growth of energy expertise and knowledge from the people at capital power together these achievements reinforce our team's ability to consume.
Speaker #3: And finally , we generated 13.4 terawatt hours across our portfolio and completed 65% of planned outage days for the year . As we talk through our accomplishments , a consistent theme emerges of long term , low risk growth across our portfolio and at the core , we have this compounding growth of energy , expertise and knowledge from the people at Capital Power .
<unk> deliver diversify our portfolio and execute with discipline to drive long term shareholder value.
In September 2025, we executed a new long term contract with improved economic terms for Midland cogeneration venture the largest natural gas fired combined electric and steam generation facility in the U S extending the contract to 2040, and providing 10 years of incremental contracted revenue.
Speaker #3: Together , these achievements reinforce our team's ability to consistently deliver , diversify our portfolio and execute with discipline to drive long term shareholder value .
Speaker #3: In September 2025 , we executed a new long term contract with improved economic terms for Midland Cogeneration Venture . The largest natural gas fired combined electric and steam generation facility in the US , extending the contract to 2040 and providing ten years of incremental contracted revenue .
Avik Dey: In September 2025, we executed a new long-term contract with improved economic terms for Midland Cogeneration Venture, the largest natural gas-fired combined electric and steam generation facility in the U.S., extending the contract to 2040 and providing 10 years of incremental contracted revenue. Michigan is an attractive and growing market for electricity. This contract is an important milestone for Capital Power as it reinforces the critical role efficient natural gas assets like MCV play in maintaining grid reliability as power demand grows. Starting in June 2030, MCV will receive enhanced payments under a new PPA for 1,240 megawatts or approximately 75% of its capacity. This will provide long-term revenue stability and increase annual adjusted EBITDA by roughly $100 million and an 85% increase over current contract pricing that the facility receives today. When we talk about recontracting our assets, we often talk about preserving optionality for other opportunities.
Michigan is an attractive and growing market for electricity. This contract is an important milestone for capital power as it reinforces the critical role of efficient natural gas assets like MTV play in maintaining grid reliability as power demand growth.
Speaker #3: Michigan is an attractive and growing market for electricity . This contract is an important milestone for capital power as it reinforces the critical role of efficient natural gas assets like MTV .
Starting in June 2030, MTV will receive enhanced payment under a new PPA for 240 megawatts or approximately 75% of its capacity.
Speaker #3: Play in maintaining grid reliability as power demand grows . Starting in June 2030 , MTV will receive enhanced payments under a new PPA for 1240MW , or approximately 75% of its capacity .
We will provide long term revenue stability and increase annual adjusted EBITDA by roughly USD $100 million and 85% increase over current contract pricing that.
The facility received today.
Speaker #3: This will provide long term revenue stability and increased annual adjusted EBITDA by roughly US 100,000,085% increase over current contract pricing . That the facility receives today .
When we talk about re contracting our app that we often talk about preserving optionality for other opportunities. We are excited to see one of those opportunities advancing with a signed letter of intent with a leading.
Location data center developer.
Speaker #3: When we talk about Recontracting , our assets , we often talk about preserving optionality for other opportunities . We are excited to see one of those opportunities advancing with a signed letter of intent with a leading co-location data center developer for a potential 250 megawatt project , highlighting how our flexible generation platform can serve new low growth reliably and efficiently .
Potential 250 megawatt project.
Lightning, how our flexible generation platform conserve new load growth reliably and efficiently.
Avik Dey: We are excited to see one of those opportunities advancing with a signed letter of intent with a leading colocation data center developer for a potential 250-megawatt project, highlighting how our flexible generation platform can serve new load growth reliably and efficiently. This presents an opportunity to secure superior economics from contracted capacity and build a relationship with a leading colocation data center developer. The MCV recontracting and other near-term recontracting opportunities tell a very clear story that our strategy of commercial optimization is delivering. We can extend contracts, improve economics, and secure long-term visible cash flows across core markets, all without taking on new build risk. It's a disciplined way to create value while strengthening the reliability customers depend on, and it builds on the theme of long-term lower-risk growth in years to come. This quarter, our battery energy storage projects achieve commercial operations.
This presents an opportunity to secure superior economics for <unk>.
Contracted capacity and build a relationship with a leading co location data center developer.
The MTBE re contract and other near term re contracting opportunities.
Speaker #3: This presents an opportunity to secure superior economics for Uncontracted capacity and build a relationship with a leading co-location data center developer . The MCB , Recontracting and other near-term Recontracting opportunities tell a very clear story that our strategy of commercial optimization is delivering .
Clear story.
And our strategy of promotional optimization delivery, we can extend the contracts improve economics.
Visible cash flows across core markets.
Without taking on new build risk it.
It's a disciplined way to create value while strengthening the reliability customers depend on and it builds on the theme of long term lower risk growth in years to come.
Speaker #3: We can extend contracts , improve economics , and secure long term visible cash flows across core markets . All without taking on new build risk .
This quarter, our battery energy storage project achieved commercial operation. We are proud to add the 120 megawatt York 50 megawatt four way best project to the Ontario grid.
Speaker #3: It's a disciplined way to create value while strengthening the reliability customers depend on . And it builds on the theme of long term , lower risk growth in years to come .
<unk> reliability, and adding a new technology to our asset base not only were these our first ever battery storage projects, but they were also delivered on time under budget and with an excellent safety record.
Speaker #3: This quarter, our battery energy storage project achieved commercial operations. We are proud to add the 120 megawatt York and 50 megawatt Goreway best project to the Ontario grid, strengthening reliability and adding a new technology to our asset base.
Avik Dey: We are proud to add the 120-megawatt York and 50-megawatt Gorway BEST projects to the Ontario grid, strengthening reliability and adding a new technology to our asset base. Not only were these our first-ever battery storage projects, but they were also delivered on time, under budget, and with an excellent safety record, a testament to our team's discipline and execution. Contracted through 2047, these facilities will add approximately $35 million in annual adjusted EBITDA over time. In addition to achieving operation of our BEST assets, we completed 70 megawatts of capacity upgrades at York and Gorway with contracts to 2035. Through our various growth and recontracting efforts, this portfolio has extended its weighted average contract life from approximately five years to 11 years. Together, the Ontario projects demonstrate how our expertise in gas, renewables, and storage comes together to deliver reliable, flexible power and long-term value.
Testament to our team's discipline and execution contracted through 2047 facilities will add approximately $35 million in annual adjusted EBITDA over time.
Speaker #3: Not only were these our first ever battery storage projects , but they were also delivered on time , under budget and with an excellent safety record .
In addition to achieving operation of our best assets. We completed 70 megawatts of capacity upgrades at York and go away with contracts to 2035 through our various growth in re contracting efforts. This portfolio as extended its weighted average contract life from approximately <unk> five years.
Speaker #3: A testament to our team's discipline and execution . Contracted through 2047 , these facilities will add approximately 35 million in annual adjusted EBITDA over time .
Speaker #3: In addition to achieving operation of our best assets , we completed 70MW of capacity upgrades at York and Goreway with contracts to 2035 .
To 11 years.
Together, the Ontario projects demonstrate how our expertise in gas renewables and storage come together to deliver reliable flexible power and long term value. Our disciplined approach is driving success across our North American platform. It's another example of long term lower risk growth.
Speaker #3: Through our various growth and recontracting efforts , this portfolio has extended its weighted average contract life from approximately five years to 11 years .
Speaker #3: Together , the Ontario project demonstrate how our expertise in gas , renewables and storage comes together to deliver reliable , flexible power and long term value .
That we believe we can continue.
And our first full quarter under capital power ownership, the humble enrolling health facilities achieved financial integration and delivered a strong adjusted EBITDA contribution performing ahead of expectations with higher dispatch and strong pricing.
Speaker #3: Our disciplined approach is driving success across our North American platform . It's another example of long term , lower risk growth that we believe we can continue in our first full quarter under capital power ownership , the Hummel and Rolling Hills facilities financial integration and delivered a strong adjusted EBITDA contribution , performing ahead of expectations with higher dispatch and strong pricing .
Avik Dey: Our disciplined approach is driving success across our North American platform. It's another example of long-term lower-risk growth that we believe we can continue. In their first full quarter under Capital Power Corporation ownership, the Hummel and Rolling Hills facilities achieved financial integration and delivered a strong adjusted EBITDA contribution, performing ahead of expectations with higher dispatch and strong pricing. The energy price outlook in PJM is strong, and we continue to crystallize value for these assets using hedges with investment-grade counterparties, having put in place approximately nine gigawatts of hedges through 2027. We are also encouraged by continued strength in capacity pricing, coming in at the cap of $329 per megawatt day for the 2026/2027 auction, approximately 20% higher than the 2025/2026 auction.
The energy price outlook in PJM is strong and we continue to crystallize value for these assets using hedges with investment grade Counterparties, having put in place approximately nine gigawatts of hedges through 2027.
We're also encouraged by continued strength in capacity pricing coming in at the cap of $3 29 per megawatt day for the 26 27 auction approximately 20% higher than the $25 26 option.
Speaker #3: The energy price outlook in PJM is strong , and we continue to crystallise value for these assets using hedges with investment grade counterparties having put in place approximately nine gigawatts of hedges through 2027 .
Speaker #3: We are also encouraged by continued strength in capacity pricing, coming in at the cap of $3.29 per megawatt day for the 2627 auction. This is approximately 20% higher than the 2526 auction.
The operation optimization and integration of Homo enrolling now demonstrate another clear example of our disciplined growth and ability to execute it and it's reflected in the strong financial results Sandro will walk you through next.
Speaker #3: The operation , optimization and integration of Hummel and Rolling Hills demonstrate another clear example of our disciplined growth and ability to execute , and it's reflected in the strong financial results .
Avik Dey: The operational optimization and integration of Hummel and Rolling Hills demonstrate another clear example of our disciplined growth and ability to execute, and it's reflected in the strong financial results Sandra will walk you through next.
Thank you, Eric and good morning, everyone.
Our third quarter results highlight the strength of our diversified portfolio and disciplined execution.
We continue to deliver on what we said we would do.
Speaker #3: Sandra will walk you through next .
Stable cash flows and our balance sheet.
Speaker #4: Thank you , Eric , and good morning everyone . Our third quarter results highlight the strength of our diversified portfolio and disciplined execution .
Sandra Haskins: Thank you, Avik, and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter results highlight the strength of our diversified portfolio and disciplined execution. We continue to deliver on what we said we would do: growth, stable cash flows, and a balance sheet that supports future expansion. In Q3, adjusted EBITDA was $477 million, up approximately 20% from the same period last year. This increase was driven by strong contributions from our U.S. flexible generation portfolio following the addition of our PJM assets. The gains in the U.S. flexible generation portfolio were partially offset by lower results from La Paloma and Decatur, which were driven by generation. AFFO for the quarter was $369 million, up approximately 20% year over year, reflecting higher adjusted EBITDA, current income tax recovery, and partially offset by higher finance expense.
Future expansion.
In Q3, adjusted EBITDA was $477 million up approximately 20% from the same period last year.
Speaker #4: We continue to deliver on what we said we would do . Growth , stable cash flows and a balance sheet that supports future expansion in Q3 , adjusted EBITDA was $477 million , up approximately 20% from the same period last year .
This increase was driven by strong contributions from our U S flexible generation portfolio following the ambition of our PGM asset.
The gains in the U S flexible generation portfolio were partially offset by lower results from La Paloma, and Decatur, which were driven by generation.
Speaker #4: This increase was driven by strong contributions from our US flexible generation portfolio . Following the addition of our PJM asset . The gains in the US flexible generation portfolio were partially offset by lower results from La Paloma and Decatur , which were driven by generation FFO for the quarter was $369 million , up approximately 20% year over year , reflecting higher adjusted EBITDA .
<unk> for the quarter was $369 million up approximately 20% year over year, reflecting higher adjusted EBITDA current income tax recovery and partially offset by higher finance expense.
For the nine months of 2025, adjusted EBITDA totaled $1 billion $166 million, 15% higher than the same period last year driven by the same factors impacting Q3, and lower emission costs and corporate expenses.
Speaker #4: Current income tax recovery and partially offset by higher finance expense for the nine months of 2025 adjusted EBITDA totaled $1,000,000,166 million , 15% higher than the same period last year , driven by the same factors impacting Q3 and lower emission costs and corporate expenses .
Sandra Haskins: For the nine months of 2025, adjusted EBITDA totaled $1,166 million, 15% higher than the same period last year, driven by the same factors impacting Q3 and lower emission costs and corporate expenses. AFFO for the nine months ended September 2025 was $882 million, up 40% from the same period last year, driven by the same factors impacting Q3 and a credit for parts at La Paloma and settlement of the off-cold compensation. The 2025 year-to-date financial performance positions us well to deliver strong 2025 results. To ensure portfolio reliability and better position our business to capitalize on stronger market fundamentals beyond 2026, we are updating the Alberta plant maintenance schedule. Updates to the maintenance schedule include an outage on our G3 unit in Q4 of 2025, previously planned for 2026.
<unk> for the nine months ended September 2025 was $882 million up 40% from the same period last year driven by the same factors impacting Q3, and a credit for parts had lapped Paloma and settlement of the off coal compensation.
Speaker #4: AFO for the nine months ended September 2025 was $882 million , up 40% from the same period last year , driven by the same factors impacting Q3 and a credit for parts at La Paloma and settlement of the off coal compensation .
The 2025 year to date financial performance positions us well to deliver strong 2025 results.
To ensure portfolio reliability and better position our business to capitalize on stronger market fundamentals beyond 2026, we are updating the Alberta plant maintenance schedule.
Speaker #4: The 2025 year to date financial performance positions us well to deliver strong 2025 results to ensure portfolio reliability and better position our business to capitalize on stronger market fundamentals .
Thanks to the maintenance schedule, including outage on our G. Three unit in Q4 of 2025 previously planned for 2026.
Speaker #4: Beyond 2026, we are updating the Alberta plant maintenance schedule. Updates to the maintenance schedule include an outage on our G3 unit in Q4 of 2025.
This will allow G III, which is the most efficient coal to gas converted unit in Alberta to be available through 2026. When we are conducting planned outages on all our other units in our Alberta portfolio.
Speaker #4: Previously planned for 2026 . This will allow G3 , which is the most efficient coal to gas converted unit in Alberta , to be available through 2026 .
All newly installed turbines such as those at Genesee, one and two undergo an infancy period during which greater monitoring and maintenance as required to ensure long term smooth operation.
Sandra Haskins: This will allow G3, which is the most efficient coal-to-gas converted unit in Alberta, to be available through 2026 when we are conducting planned outages on all our other units in our Alberta portfolio. All newly installed turbines, such as those at Genesee 1 and 2, undergo an infancy period during which greater monitoring and maintenance is required to ensure long-term smooth operations. As such, G1 and G2 will have previously scheduled maintenance outages in 2026 extended but will still allow for normal operations in the interim. For Canadian flexible generation, the 2026 maintenance schedule will include approximately 40% more outage days than in 2025, with an expected capital cost of approximately $25 per kW of nameplate capacity. For our U.S. flexible generation assets, we expect sustaining capital costs of approximately $30 to $35 per kW of nameplate capacity for the same time.
Speaker #4: When we are conducting planned outages on all our other units in our Alberta portfolio , all newly installed turbines , such as those at Genesis one and two , undergo an infancy period during which greater monitoring and maintenance is required to ensure long term , smooth operations .
As such <unk> will have previously scheduled maintenance outages in 2026 extended but will still allow for normal operations in the interim.
For Canadian flexible generation. The 2026 maintenance schedule will include approximately 40% more outage days than in 2025 with an expected capital cost of approximately $25 per kw of nameplate capacity.
Speaker #4: As such, G1 and G2 will have previously scheduled maintenance outages in 2026. These outages will be extended but will still allow for normal operations in the interim.
Speaker #4: For Canadian flexible generation , the 2026 maintenance schedule will include approximately 40% more outage days than in 2025 , with an expected capital cost of approximately $25 per kW of nameplate capacity for our US flexible generation assets , we expect sustaining capital costs of approximately 30 to $35 per kW of nameplate capacity for the same time , while elevated compared to prior years .
For our U S flexible generation assets, we expect sustaining capital cost of approximately 30% to $35 per kw of nameplate capacity for the same time, while elevated compared to prior years. We believe this investment can be prudent to maximize asset light and efficiency and we.
Spec cost on a dollar per kw basis to decline in future years closer to $25 per kw on average across the fleet.
Sandra Haskins: While elevated compared to prior years, we believe this investment to be prudent to maximize asset life and efficiency, and we expect costs on a dollar per kW basis to decline in future years, closer to $25 per kW on average across the fleet. It is also important to note that these costs are consistent with our expectations and do not reduce our view on the return potential for our assets that we have conveyed in the past. Current Alberta forward pricing indicates that implied spark spreads for Alberta merchant capacity are projected to rise by approximately 90% between 2026 and 2028. Earlier this year, the same forwards suggested a more modest increase. The shift in expectations strengthens our conviction that 2026 is the optimal window for executing these outages.
Speaker #4: We believe this investment to be prudent to maximize asset life and efficiency , and we expect costs on a dollar per kW basis to decline in future years .
It is also important to note that these costs are consistent with our expectations and do not reduce our view on the return potential for our assets that we have conveyed in the past.
Speaker #4: Closer to $25 per kW on average across the fleet . It is also important to note that these costs are consistent with our expectations and do not reduce our view on the return potential for our assets that we have conveyed in the past .
Current Alberta forward pricing indicates that implied spark spreads for Alberta merchant capacity are projected to rise by approximately 90% between 2026 and 2028.
Earlier this year the same forward suggested a more modest increase.
Speaker #4: Current Alberta forward pricing indicates that implied spark spreads for Alberta merchant capacity are projected to rise by approximately 90% between 2026 and 2028 .
The shift in expectations strengthens our conviction that 2026 is the optimal window for executing these outages.
From both operational and financial point of view this approach best positions us to capitalize on strengthening fundamentals in Alberta beyond 2026.
Speaker #4: Earlier this year , the same forward suggested a more modest increase . The shift in expectations strengthens our conviction that 2026 is the optimal window for executing these outages from both operational and financial point of view .
Despite updates to planned outages and delays on Alberta projects, we are reaffirming guidance ranges that we updated in Q2 across our key metrics.
Sandra Haskins: From both operational and financial point of view, this approach best positions us to capitalize on strengthening fundamentals in Alberta beyond 2026. Despite updates to planned outages and delays on Alberta projects, we are reaffirming guidance ranges that we updated in Q2 across our key metrics. For 2025, we continue to expect adjusted EBITDA between $1.5 billion and $1.65 billion, AFFO between $950 million and $1.1 billion, and sustaining CapEx between $215 million to $245 million. These ranges reflect strong execution year to date and confidence in our diversified portfolio's ability to deliver stable growing cash flows. With that, I'll hand it back to Avik to conclude the call.
Speaker #4: This approach best positions us to capitalize on strengthening fundamentals in Alberta beyond 2026 . Despite updates to planned outages and delays on Alberta projects .
Our 2025, we continue to expect adjusted EBITDA between $1 5 billion and $165 billion.
Speaker #4: We are reaffirming guidance ranges that we updated in Q2 across our key metrics for 2025 . We continue to expect adjusted EBITDA between 1.5 billion and $1.65 billion , AFFO between $950,000,001.1 billion .
<unk> between $950 million, and $1 1 billion and sustaining capex between $215 million to $245 million.
These ranges reflect strong execution year to date and confidence in our diversified portfolios ability to deliver stable growing cash flows.
Speaker #4: And sustaining CapEx between 215 million to $245 million . These ranges reflect strong execution year to date and confidence in our diversified portfolios .
With that I'll hand, it back to <unk> to conclude the call.
As we reflect on the third quarter, it's clear that 2025 has been a year of delivery.
Speaker #4: Ability to deliver stable , growing cash flows . With that , I'll hand it back to Avik to conclude the call .
We've completed all our priorities for shareholder value creation as outlined on our January guidance call for strengthening our U S platform to securing enhance long term contracts. The story here isn't just about individual milestones. It's about the strength of the collective the team and the consistency our platform is doing exactly.
Speaker #3: As we reflect on the third quarter, it's clear that 2025 has been a year of delivery. We've completed all our priorities for shareholder value creation as outlined on our January guidance call, from strengthening our U.S. platform to securing enhanced long-term contracts.
Avik Dey: As we reflect on the third quarter, it's clear that 2025 has been a year of delivery. We've completed all our priorities for shareholder value creation as outlined on our January guidance call, from strengthening our U.S. platform to securing enhanced long-term contracts. The story here isn't just about individual milestones, it's about the strength of the collective, the team, and the consistency. Our platform is doing exactly what we designed it to do: generate stable contracted cash flows while maintaining flexibility to capture upside in dynamic markets. That's the value of scale, diversification, and disciplined capital allocation working together. Today, Capital Power Corporation stands as one of North America's top natural gas-focused independent power producers, with a 12-gigawatt portfolio balanced across five core markets and backed by an experienced and passionate team.
What we designed it to do generate stable contracted cash flows while maintaining flexibility to capture upside in dynamic markets. That's the value of scale diversification and disciplined capital allocation and working together today capital power stands as one of North America's top natural gas focused independent.
Speaker #3: The story here isn't just about individual milestones . It's about the strength of the collective , the team and the consistency . Our platform is doing exactly what we designed it to do generate stable , contracted cash flows while maintaining flexibility to capture upside in dynamic markets .
Power producers with a 12 gigawatt portfolio balanced across five core markets and backed by an experienced and passionate team that balance allows us to manage risk sustained growth and fund new opportunities all while protecting the strength of our investment grade balance sheet looking ahead, the foundation and we.
Speaker #3: That's the value of scale diversification and disciplined capital allocation . Working together . Today , capital power stands as one of North America's top natural gas focused , independent power producers , with a 12 gigawatt portfolio balanced across five core markets and backed by an experienced and passionate team that balance allows us to manage risk , sustain growth and fund new opportunities , all while protecting the strength of our investment grade balance sheet .
We built this year positions us to meet the accelerating demand for reliable power and deliver sustained value creation for shareholders in 2026 and beyond.
Avik Dey: That balance allows us to manage risk, sustain growth, and fund new opportunities, all while protecting the strength of our investment-grade balance sheet. Looking ahead, the foundation we built this year positions us to meet the accelerating demand for reliable power and deliver sustained value creation for shareholders in 2026 and beyond. This morning, we announced Sandra's plan to retire from her role on December 31, 2025. Sandra has been an integral part of our company's story, growth, and success. Since joining in 2002, Sandra has led with integrity, strategic vision, and an unwavering commitment to excellence. We're immensely grateful for her 23 years of service. Congratulations, Sandra, on your well-earned retirement. Scott Manson, our Chief Accounting Officer and Treasurer, will transition to interim SVP Finance and CFO. A search for a new SVP Finance and CFO is underway, and a successor will be announced in due course.
This morning, we announced bandwidth plan to retire from her role on December 31 2025.
Speaker #3: Looking ahead , the foundation we built this year positions us to meet the accelerating demand for reliable power and deliver sustained value creation for shareholders in 2026 and beyond .
Sandra has been an integral part of our company's story growth and success since joining in 2002, Sandra has led with integrity strategic vision and then unwavering commitment to excellence. We are immensely grateful for her 23 years of service Congratulations Andrew on your well earned retirement.
Speaker #3: This morning , we announced Sandra's plan to retire from her role on December 31st , 2025 . Sandra has been an integral part of our company's story , growth and success since joining in 2002 .
Scott <unk>, our chief accounting officer, and Treasurer, while transition to interim SVP finance and CFO.
Speaker #3: Sandra has led with integrity , strategic vision and an unwavering commitment to excellence . We're immensely grateful for her 23 years of service .
Our search for a new SVP finance and CFO is underway and a successor will be announced in due course, Sandra will support a smooth leadership transition by remaining in an advisory role until the end of Q1 2026.
Speaker #3: Congratulations , Sandra on your well-earned retirement . Scott Manson , our Chief accounting officer and treasurer , will transition to interim SVP , finance and CFO .
Speaker #3: A search for a new SVP , finance and CFO is underway , and a successor will be announced in due course . Sandra will support a smooth leadership transition by remaining in an advisory role until the end of Q1 2026 .
Before we begin our Q&A I would like to remind you that we will be hosting our 2025 Investor day event on December 9th and 10th in Toronto, Our Investor Day, We will provide a deeper look at how our portfolio of natural gas renewables and storage forms the backbone of reliability today.
Avik Dey: Sandra will support a smooth leadership transition by remaining in an advisory role until the end of Q1 2026. Before we begin our Q&A, I'd like to remind you that we will be hosting our 2025 Investor Day event on December 9 and 10 in Toronto. Our Investor Day will provide a deeper look at how our portfolio of natural gas, renewables, and storage forms the backbone of reliability today and the foundation for growth tomorrow. We're excited to demonstrate how disciplined execution, thoughtful capital allocation, and a focus on operational excellence will continue to drive superior shareholder value, and we look forward to sharing our long-term vision and the next phase of Capital Power Corporation's growth journey with all of you in person. With that, I will hand the call back over to Roy.
Speaker #3: Before we begin our Q&A, I'd like to remind you that we will be hosting our 2025 Investor Day event on December 9th and 10th in Toronto.
And the foundation for growth Tomorrow, we're.
We're excited to demonstrate how disciplined execution thoughtful capital allocation and our focus on operational excellence will continue to drive superior shareholder value and we look forward to sharing our long term vision and the next phase of capital Power's growth journey with all of you in person.
Speaker #3: Our Investor Day will provide a deeper look at how our portfolio of natural gas , renewables and storage forms the backbone of reliability today and the foundation for growth tomorrow .
Speaker #3: We're excited to demonstrate how disciplined execution , thoughtful capital allocation and a focus on operational excellence will continue to drive superior shareholder value , and we look forward to sharing our long term vision and the next phase of capital power's growth journey with all of you in person .
With that I will hand, the call back over to Roy.
This concludes the formal part of the presentation. Operator, you can now begin the Q&A portion of the meeting.
Thank you as a reminder to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone and Mike for your name to be announced until the trailing a question. Please press star one again please.
Speaker #3: With that , I will hand the call back over to Roy .
Speaker #2: Thanks , Alec . This concludes the formal part of the presentation . Operator . You can now begin the Q&A portion of the meeting .
Roy Arthur: Thanks, Avik. This concludes the formal part of the presentation. Operator, you can now begin the Q&A portion of the meeting.
Please stand by we'll be compiling our Q&A roster.
Speaker #1: Thank you . As a reminder to ask a question , please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced .
Operator: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question is going to come from the line of Julian Dormolin-Smith with Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Our first question is going to come from the line of Julien Dumoulin Smith with Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Speaker #1: To withdraw your question , please press star one one again . Please stand by while we compile our Q&A roster . Our first question is going to come from the line of Julien Dumoulin-smith with Jefferies .
Hi, This is Turner on for Julian Good morning, and congratulation Sandra.
Hey, I just wanted to ask on the or start with you on the ASO large load phase two it's obviously in the pre engagement phase I just wanted to check in on your updated expectations for for process for ultimately what could be the scope and then how you are viewing how your level setting expectations going into the engagement phase.
Speaker #1: Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Speaker #5: Hi , this is Tanner on for Julien . Good morning . And congratulations , Sandra . Yeah , I just wanted to ask on the or start with here on the Aso large load phase two .
[Analyst]: Hi, this is Tanner on for Julian. Good morning and congratulations, Sandra. I just wanted to ask on the or start with here on the ASO large load phase two. It's obviously in the pre-engagement phase. I just wanted to check in on your updated expectations for the process, for ultimately what could be the scope and how you're level-setting expectations going into the engagement phase beginning later this year.
Speaker #5: It's obviously in the pre phase . I just wanted to check in on your your updated expectations for , for process for ultimately what could be the scope and how you're viewing how your level setting expectations going into the engagement phase beginning later this year .
Beginning later this year.
Okay.
Thanks for the question.
As we've said before.
Firstly, we're excited about.
Phase, one and potential parties coming into the province, and really kicking kickstarting. The datacenter business for phase III, we are going to be engaged we think we're well positioned for phase III given the excess capacity that we have at Genesee.
Speaker #6: Thanks for the question . You know , as we've said before , firstly , you know , we're excited about phase one and potential parties coming into the province .
Avik Dey: Thanks for the question. As we've said before, firstly, we're excited about phase one and potential parties coming into the province and really kickstarting the data center business. For phase two, we are going to be engaged. We think we're well positioned for phase two given the excess capacity that we have at Genesee, and we're overall constructive. As we said last quarter, we think the option value of our site at Genesee, combined with the excess load that we have at Genesee, positions us very well for that phase. Also, just as importantly, for anyone that's coming in through phase one, we believe we're best positioned to provide VPPAs for it. I would say initial indications on phase one are positive, which lends us to be more positive on phase two. At the end of the day, this is an infrastructure play.
Speaker #6: And really kicking kick starting the data center business for phase two . We are going to be engaged . We think we're well positioned for phase two , given the excess capacity that we have at Genesee , and we're overall constructive .
And we are overall constructive.
We said last quarter.
We think the option value of our site at Genesee combined with the excess load that we have at Genesee positions us very well for that phase, but also just as importantly for any one that's coming in through phase one.
Speaker #6: You know , as we said last quarter , we think the option value of our site at Genesee , combined with the excess load that we have at Genesee , positions us very well for that phase .
Believe we're best positioned to provide the ppas.
So I would say initial indications on phase one are positive.
Speaker #6: But also just as importantly , for anyone that's coming in through phase one . We believe we're best positioned to provide vpas for it .
Which leads us to be more positive on phase II and at the end of the day. This is an infrastructure play so our positioning of having generation in place.
Speaker #6: So I would say initial indications on phase one are positive , which lends us to , to be more positive on phase two .
We're in the process of unlocking in addition to the attractiveness of our site.
Ultimately, we think that positions us well.
Speaker #6: And at the end of the day, this is an infrastructure play. So our positioning of having generation in place that we're in the process of unlocking, in addition to the attractiveness of our site.
Avik Dey: Our positioning of having generation in place that we're in the process of unlocking, in addition to the attractiveness of our site, ultimately, we think that positions us well.
Great. Thanks, and then maybe here, we can dive a little deeper into the discussion around the MSC you mentioned in the quarterly report.
This proposed reform that's come up before.
Speaker #6: Ultimately , we think that positions us well .
And absent the technical solution, which I know you're exploring with <unk>. So it seems as though way so kind of needs a philosophical change in its view of system risk due.
Speaker #5: Great , thanks . And maybe here we can dive a little deeper into the discussion around MSK mentioned in the quarterly report . You know , obviously this proposed reform that's come up before and absent a technical solution , which I know you're exploring with Aso , it seems as though Aso kind of needs a philosophical change in its view of system risk due to singular , unexpected failure or outage .
[Analyst]: Great. Thanks. Maybe here we can dive a little deeper into the discussion around MSSC mentioned in the quarterly report. Obviously, this proposed reform has come up before and absent a technical solution, which I know you're exploring with ASO, it seems as though ASO kind of needs a philosophical change in its view of system risk due to singular unexpected failure or outage. Just perspectively, what are some signposts that we can look forward to, to indicate progress in these discussions or perhaps an evolution in ASO's thinking? Should we still view long-term resolution of this issue as directly tied to FFR or FMDR process outcomes?
You'd assume dealer unexpected failure or outage just prospectively what are some signposts that we can look forward to to indicate progress in these discussions or perhaps some evolution in acos thinking and then should we still view long term resolution of this issue is directly tied to <unk> or F. N D. Our process outcomes.
Speaker #5: Just prospectively . What are some signposts that we can look forward to to indicate progress in these discussions or perhaps an evolution in aso's thinking ?
It's a great question look I think the ASR has been very constructive in their perspective on Mfc's E. The MFC limit to begin with was that for the <unk>.
Speaker #5: And then should we still view long term resolution of this issue as directly tied to FFR or Pfmdr process outcomes ?
<unk> two capacity originally that 466 was the original capacity for <unk>.
Speaker #6: It's a great question . Look , I think the Aso has been very constructive in their perspective on MSK . The MSK limit to begin with was set for the G1 and G2 capacity .
Avik Dey: It's a great question. Look, I think the ASO has been very constructive in their perspective on the MSCC. The MSCC limit, to begin with, was set for the G1 and G2 capacity originally. That 466 was the original capacity for G1 and G2. I think the leading indicator on their constructiveness is going to be through the two-way dialogue that we're having right now on the HPSO solution because that will, one, validate single nodal capacity over and above 466, although our solution ensures that we work within the existing MSCC limits. As we contemplate, this will be part of the phase two conversation as well. I think overall, I think it's up to us to demonstrate the technical viability of our solution, which we feel very good about.
And I think the leading indicator on their constructive mass is going to be through the two way dialogue that we're having right now on the <unk>.
Speaker #6: Originally , that for 66 was the original capacity for G1 and G2 . And I think the . Leading indicator on their Constructiveness is going to be through the two way dialogue that we're having right now on the House.so solution , because that will one validate , you know , single nodal capacity over and above for 66 , although , you know , our solution ensures that we work within the existing MSK limits .
Solution, because that will one validate single nodal capacity over and above $4 66, although our solution ensures that we work within the existing MCC limits. So as we contemplate this will be part of the phase III conversation as well.
But I think overall I think it's.
But to us to demonstrate the technical viability of our Solutia, which we feel very good about.
Speaker #6: So as we contemplate this will be part of the phase two conversation as well . But I think overall , you know , I think it's it's it's up to us to demonstrate , you know , the technical viability of our solution , which we feel very good about .
Would have seen in the ACO disclosures, we've gone through.
Preliminary testing already.
And so it's been very constructive in working with us as we work to.
Really cement.
Speaker #6: You know , as you would have seen in the Aso disclosures , you know , we've gone through preliminary testing already and the aso's been very constructive in working with us as we work to to really cement the viability of one R option .
The ability of one our option and then secondly for the broader market and address the limit of $4 66, and potential increase of it. So I can't say much more than that but I think the biggest indicator is going to be.
Avik Dey: As you would have seen in the ASO disclosures, we've gone through preliminary testing already, and the ASO has been very constructive in working with us as we work to really cement the viability of our option. Secondly, for the broader market, address the limit of 466 and potential increase of it. I can't say much more than that, but I think the biggest indicator is going to be how we perform on validating our own HPSO.
Speaker #6: And then secondly , for the broader market , you know , address the limit of 466 and potential increase of it . So I can't say much more than that , but I think .
We perform on validating our own each VSO.
Great. Thank you very much.
Thank you and one moment for our next question.
Speaker #3: The biggest indicator is going to be, you know, how we perform on validating our own ASO.
Our next question will come from the line of Patrick Kenny with.
Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Speaker #5: Great . Thank you very much .
[Analyst]: Great. Thank you very much.
Thank you good morning, I guess, starting with the co location opportunity.
Speaker #1: Thank you . And one moment for our next question . Our next question will come from the line of Patrick Kenny with NBC .
Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Patrick Kenny with NBF. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Just wondering if you could provide a bit more color on.
The potential timing for finalizing the PPA there.
Speaker #1: Your line is open. Please go ahead.
When the customer could potentially be online.
Speaker #7: Thank you . Good morning . I guess starting with the the co-location opportunity at M . Just wondering if you could provide a bit more color on the potential timing for finalizing the PPA .
[Analyst]: Thank you. Good morning. I guess starting with the colocation opportunity at MCV, just wondering if you could provide a bit more color on the potential timing for finalizing the PPA there and when the customer could potentially be online. Also, if you could just remind us what the ultimate brownfield potential might look like for the site itself and if you're able to scale this opportunity or perhaps bring in other data center customers over time as well.
And then also if you could just remind us what the.
What the ultimate brownfield potential might look like for the site itself.
If you are able to scale this opportunity or perhaps bring in other datacenter customers overtime as well.
Speaker #7: There . And when the customer could potentially be online and then also , if you could just remind us what the what the ultimate brownfield potential might look like for the site itself .
Yes, thanks for the question.
As you know the capacity at MTV is just over 600 megawatts, we've entered the long term contract extension.
Speaker #7: And you know, if you're able to scale this opportunity or perhaps bring in other data center customers over time as well.
With CMS that speaks for 75% of that capacity.
Speaker #3: Yeah , thanks for the question , Pat . You know , as you know , the the capacity at MCV is just over 1600 megawatts .
Avik Dey: Yeah. Thanks for the question, Pat. As you know, the capacity at MCV is just over 1,600 megawatts. We've entered the long-term contract extension with CMS that speaks for 75% of that capacity. This 250-megawatt contract or LOI with the data center provider is a long-term contract in nature, but it does speak to 100% of the capacity at the site. We do see potential expansion opportunities in and around our plant at MCV. I can't speak to specifics around that. In addition, I would say our customer here has broader ambitions as well. I think part of the optionality of the MCV site specifically is what's resonating. I can't speak specifically to how many megawatts or acreage are available and what that pathway is. What I would say is, although we haven't addressed pricing specifically yet on the contract, our outlook is quite constructive. Point one.
And then the 250 megawatt contract.
Your or LOI with the data center provider.
Speaker #3: You know , we've entered the long term contract extension with CMS . That speaks for 75% of that capacity . And then this 250 megawatt contract or , or Loi with the data center provider is , you know , is a long term contract in nature , but it does speak to 100% of the capacity at the site .
<unk> is a long term contract in nature, but it does speak to a 100% of the capacity at the site.
We do see potential expansion opportunities in and around.
Our our plant at MTV I can't speak to specifics around that.
But in addition, I would say our customer here.
Speaker #3: We do see potential expansion opportunities in and around our our plant at MCV . I can't speak to specifics around that , but in addition , I would say , you know , our customer here has a broader ambitions as well .
Broader ambitions as well.
And I think part of the Optionality of MTBE.
<unk>, specifically is what's resonating so I can't speak specifically to.
How many megawatts or acreage are available and what that pathway is but what I would say is although we haven't addressed pricing specifically yet on the contract our outlook is quite constructive.
Speaker #3: And I think part of the optionality of MCV site specifically is , is what's resonating . So , you know , I can't speak specifically to , you know , how many megawatts or acreage are available and what that pathway is .
One point to we're talking about long term contracts that are.
Speaker #3: But what I would say is , although we haven't addressed pricing specifically yet on the contract , our outlook is quite constructive . .1.2 we're talking about long term contracts that are , you know , you can assume them to be well , well in excess of ten years , closer to 15 years .
You can assume them to be well.
Well in excess of 10 years.
Closer to 15 years.
And we've got capacity and access to transmission distribution and potential upside.
Avik Dey: Point two, we're talking about long-term contracts that are, you can assume them to be well in excess of 10 years, closer to 15 years. We've got capacity and access to transmission distribution and potential upside in Michigan as well and at the site. I think as we've indicated, we've got a handful of sites that all have this capacity and potential, and we're actively working to monetize those available megawatts.
In Michigan as well and at the site. So I think as we've indicated.
Speaker #3: And , you know , we've got capacity and access to transmission , distribution and potential upside in , in in Michigan as well .
We've got a handful of sites that all have this capacity and potential.
We're actively working to monetize those available megawatts.
Speaker #3: And at the site . So I think as , as we've indicated , you know , we've got a handful of sites that all have this capacity and potential .
Okay, great. Thanks for that.
And then on the PJM assets.
People, Tamil and Rolling Hills ran at higher capacity factors in the quarter relative to.
Speaker #3: And you know , we're actively working to to monetize those available megawatts .
Your base guidance just wondering.
Speaker #7: Okay . Great . Thanks for that . And then on the PJM assets , I see both Hummel and Rolling Hills around at higher capacity factors in the quarter relative to your base guidance .
If that was just seasonal strength through the summer or.
[Analyst]: Okay. Great. Thanks for that. On the PJM assets, I see both Hummel and Rolling Hills ran at higher capacity factors in the quarter relative to your base guidance. Just wondering if that was just seasonal strength through the summer or if you're now thinking this higher level of generation might be sustained going forward. If so, you know if you might be thinking about offering more capacity into the auction market this December from either facility.
If you're now thinking this higher level of generation might be sustained going forward.
And if so you know.
If you might be thinking about offering more capacity into the auction market. This December from either facility.
Speaker #7: Just wondering if that was just seasonal strength through the summer or if , if you're now thinking this higher level of generation might be sustained going forward ?
Yes.
Not in a position to comment on what our plans for the upcoming auction.
Speaker #7: And if so , you know , if you might be thinking about offering more capacity into the auction market this December from either facility .
I would say early.
In terms of this past quarter I would say you can presume it to be more around seasonality, but we are overall constructive.
Speaker #3: Yeah , we're we're not in a position to comment on what our plans for the upcoming auction are . I would say early , you know , in terms of this past quarter , I would say you can presume it to be more around seasonality , but we're overall constructive of what we're seeing , both in , you know , at both .
Avik Dey: We're not in a position to comment on what our plans for the upcoming auction are. I would say early, in terms of this past quarter, you can presume it to be more around seasonality. We're overall constructive of what we're seeing in both quarters. Generation and dispatch have been constructive. I think the outlook for the auctions is equally constructive. Early signs are positive for the quarter and what we've seen.
Seeing Boston.
Okay.
Generation and dispatch of have been constructive so I think the outlook for the auctions as equally constructive.
But early signs are positive for the quarter and what we've seen.
Speaker #8: Levels .
Speaker #3: And , you know , generation and dispatch have been constructive . So I think the outlook for the auctions is equally constructive . But , you early signs are positive for the quarter .
Okay.
And then on the Arizona assets, if I could just curious.
On the back of the recent transwestern pipeline announcements.
I'm wondering if that's helped spur any.
Speaker #3: And what we've seen .
New commercial discussions with data center customers are.
Speaker #7: Okay . And then on the Arizona assets , if I could just curious , you know , on the back of the recent Transwestern pipeline announcement , I'm wondering if that's helped to spur any , new commercial discussions with data center customers at either Arlington or Harquahala or perhaps accelerate some recontracting discussions with the local utilities .
[Analyst]: Okay. On the Arizona assets, if I could, just curious, on the back of the recent Transwestern pipeline announcement, I'm wondering if that's helped to spur any new commercial discussions with data center customers at either Arlington or Harcahulla, or perhaps accelerate some recontracting discussions with the local utilities, just knowing that more gas supply is coming by the end of the decade to support the continued build-out of data center capacity across the state.
Either Arlington or our Kahala.
Or perhaps accelerate.
Some re contracting discussions with the local utilities, just knowing that more gas supply is coming by the end of the decade.
<unk>.
Continued build out of data center capacity across the state.
Yeah look in terms of affirming the long term value of natural gas I think this pipeline announcement is probably one of the biggest single data points for natural gas fired generation in the U S. In the last five to 10 years.
Speaker #7: Just knowing that, you know, more gas supply is coming by the end of the decade to support the continued buildout of data center capacity across the state.
Speaker #3: Yeah . Look , in terms of affirming the long term value of natural gas , I think this pipeline announcement is probably one of the biggest single data points for natural gas fired generation in the US .
Avik Dey: Yeah. In terms of affirming the long-term value of natural gas, I think this pipeline announcement is probably one of the biggest single data points for natural gas-fired generation in the U.S. in the last 5 to 10 years. A major pipeline expansion, a $5 billion project, 42-inch line, only gets done with customers in place and offtake in place. In terms of our own position between Arlington and Harcahulla, we've had very constructive dialogue over the course of the last year and a half on whether it's upgrades, recontracting, potential growth opportunities, and those continue. I wouldn't say that they're better because of the announcement of the pipeline. The fact of the matter is we've been in those conversations over the last two years and been part of that overall dialogue affirming load growth in Arizona and the need for more gas to serve those load-serving entities.
Your pipeline expansion of $5 billion project 42 inch line only gets done with.
Customers in place and off taken place so in terms of our own position between Arlington in America.
Speaker #3: In the last 5 to 10 years . You know , a major pipeline expansion , $5 billion project , 42 inch line , only gets done with customers in place and offtake in place .
<unk> had very constructive dialogue over the last the course of the last year and a half on whether it's upgrades re contracting potential growth opportunities.
Speaker #3: So in terms of our own position between Arlington and Harquahala , we've had very constructive dialogue over the last the course of the last year and a half .
Those continue I wouldn't say that they're better because of the announcement of the pipeline.
The fact of the matter is we've been in those conversations over the last two years.
Speaker #3: On whether it's , you know , upgrades , Recontracting potential growth opportunities and those continue . I wouldn't say that they're better because of the announcement of the pipeline .
<unk> been part of that overall dialogue affirmative affirming load growth in Arizona and the need for more gas to serve those load serving entities. So yes, I would say there is continuing interest in the market I wouldn't say, it's more because of the pipeline announcements, but I think our conversations.
Speaker #3: The fact of the matter is , we've been in those conversations over the last two years and been part of that overall dialogue affirming , affirming load growth in Arizona and the need for more gas to serve those load serving entities .
And others have been a contributing factor to the pipeline.
The firming of the outlook for the market in Arizona.
Speaker #3: So I would say there's continuing interest in the market . I wouldn't say it's more because of the pipeline announcement , but I think our our conversations and others have been a contributing factor to the pipeline .
Avik Dey: I would say there's continuing interest in the market. I wouldn't say it's more because of the pipeline announcement, but I think our conversations and others have been a contributing factor to the pipeline and the firming of the outlook for the market in Arizona.
Okay, great. Thanks epoch, and Sandra Congrats on your upcoming retirement.
Thank you and one moment for our next question.
Speaker #3: And , you know , the firming of the outlook for for the market in Arizona .
Our next question comes from the line of Benjamin Pham with BMO. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Speaker #7: Okay , great . Thanks , Avik . And Sandra , congrats on your upcoming retirement .
[Analyst]: Okay. Great. Thanks, Avik. Sandra, congrats on your upcoming retirement.
Hi, Good morning, I, just wanted to first off congrats.
Speaker #1: Thank you . And one moment for our next question . Our next question comes from the line of Benjamin Pham with BMO . Your line is open .
Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Benjamin Pham with BMO. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Congratulate Sandra on our retirement as well.
A couple of questions then on Alberta, if I can ask about that for some well forgive maintenance schedule that you have here to that.
Speaker #1: Please go ahead .
Speaker #9: Hi . Good morning . I also wanted to first off . Congratulate Sandra on her retirement as well . A couple questions then on on on Alberta if I can ask about that .
[Analyst]: Hi. Good morning. I also wanted to, first off, congratulate Sandra on her retirement as well. A couple of questions then on Alberta, if I can ask about that first. With your maintenance schedule that you have here into 2026, is that really positioning for a different maintenance schedule beyond 2026? I.e., instead of every two-year cycle, you can just run the plants hard for four years to capitalize on the pricing situation?
Into 2026.
Is that sad.
Really positioning for for a different maintenance schedule beyond 26, instead of <unk>.
Speaker #9: First . With with your maintenance schedule that you have here that that into 2026 is that really positioning for for a different maintenance schedule beyond 2026 ?
Every two year cycle, you can just run the plants hard for years to capitalize on that.
The pricing situation.
So no benefit.
Not related to that at all we did have scheduled maintenance planned for next year as normal course, Audi against where those units and what we're actually doing is addressing a larger scope of work just based on some of the identified.
Speaker #9: I instead of every two year cycle , you can just run the plants hard for four years to capitalize on the pricing situation .
Speaker #4: So no , Ben , it's not related to that at all . We did have scheduled maintenance planned for next year as normal course outages for those units .
Sandra Haskins: No, Ben, it's not related to that at all. We did have scheduled maintenance planned for next year as normal course outages for those units. What we're actually doing is addressing a larger scope of work just based on some of the identified operational changes that we want to make through the early days of commissioning. They have identified incremental work that they want to do. As a result of that, because the joint ventures that we have in Alberta are also going through outage next year, it was going to be a really heavy outage year, which prompted us to move G3 forward into 2025. It is an increase next year relative to what you've seen the last few years where we've had relatively low planned outage days in Alberta as we went through the repowering of Genesee 1 and 2.
Operational changes that we want to make through the early days of commissioning. So they have identified incremental work that they want to do and as a result of that because the joint ventures that.
Speaker #4: And what we're actually doing is addressing a larger scope of work . Just based on some of the identified operational changes that we want to make through the the early days of commissioning .
That we have in Alberta are also going through outage next year. It was going to be a really heavy outage here, which has prompted us to move <unk> forward into 2025.
Speaker #4: So they have identified incremental work that they want to do . And as a result of that , because the joint ventures that we have in Alberta are also going through outage next year , it was going to be a really heavy outage year , which prompted us to move G3 forward into 2025 .
It is our increase next year relative to what you've seen in the last few years, where we've had relatively low planned outage.
Days in Alberta, as we went through the Repowering of Genesee, one and two as we get through 'twenty six 'twenty seven and you start to see prices go up we will be at a period of time, where.
Speaker #4: It is a increase next year relative to what you've seen in the last few years , where we've had relatively low planned outage days in Alberta as we went through the repowering of Genesis one and two , as we get through 26 and 27 and start to see prices go up , we'll be at a period of time where the will be back to a more normal cadence of of outages .
We'll be back to a more normal cadence of outages at that point so.
The scope of work of course will be dependent on run hours and what have you, but it is.
Sandra Haskins: As we get through 2026 and 2027 and start to see prices go up, we'll be at a period of time where we'll be back to a more normal cadence of outages at that point. The scope of work, of course, will be dependent on run hours and what have you. It's more just addressing some of those issues early on, which is consistent with our maintenance and operational practices. It's prudent that we address everything early on and be able to have the availability and reliability going forward so this doesn't create an incremental delay or push out further maintenance. It just gets us back onto a more normal schedule as we get through this initial period.
More just addressing some of those issues early on which is consistent with our maintenance and operational practices. So prudent that we address everything early on in and be able to have the availability and reliability going forward. So this doesn't create an incremental delay or pushing out further.
Speaker #4: At that point . So the scope of work , of course , will be dependent on run hours and what have you . But it's it's more just addressing some of those issues early on , which is consistent with our , our maintenance and operational practices .
So it just gets us back onto a more normal schedule as we as we get through this initial period.
Speaker #4: So prudent that we address everything early on and be able to have the availability and reliability going forward. This doesn't create an incremental delay or push out further maintenance.
Okay got it I'm just just give me your hedge position too on your deck in the back and that the 12 gigs for 296. It doesn't look like just because you're shifting some maintenance around GT G III forward.
Speaker #4: It just gets us back on to a more normal schedule . As we as we get through this , this initial period .
Speaker #9: Okay . Got it . And I'm just just give your your hedge position to on your deck in the back and the the 12 gigs for 2026 .
It doesn't look like you're over hedged for 'twenty six just doing a quick high level map on is that correct.
[Analyst]: Okay. Got it. Just give me your hedge position too on your deck in the back and at the 12 gigs for 2026. It doesn't look like just because you're shifting some maintenance around G3 forward, it doesn't look like you're overhedged for 2026, just doing a quick high-level map on. Is that correct?
That's right we would be basically flat next year, so okay baseload.
Speaker #9: It doesn't look like just because you're shifting some maintenance around GT , G3 forward , it doesn't look like your overhead for 26 .
Okay, and then maybe my last one and maybe some comments on the forward curve.
Speaker #9: Just doing a quick , high level math on is that correct ?
Pretty big upward move there.
Beginning of the year can you talk about the trading liquidity in those outer years in and as that was almost just phase one.
Speaker #4: That's right . We would be basically flat next year . So base load flat .
Sandra Haskins: That's right. We would be basically flat next year, so baseload flat.
Speaker #9: Okay. And maybe the last one—maybe some comments on the forward curve. A pretty big upward move there versus the beginning of the year.
[Analyst]: Okay. Maybe the last one, maybe some comments on the forward curve for a pretty big upward move there versus the beginning of the year. Can you talk about the trade in liquidity in those other years? Is that almost just phase one being priced into the forward curve?
Priced into the forward curve.
We did see a.
<unk> up after the announcement of a phase one announced later year. So that definitely is a driver just as well. It's just normal course, you expect as more supply gets absorbed in the market you can start to see prices move that but yeah.
Speaker #9: Can can you talk about the trading liquidity in those other years . And and is that is that almost just phase one being priced into the forward curve ?
Speaker #4: We did see a jump up after the announcement of phase one in those later years . So that definitely is a driver . Just as well as just normal .
Sandra Haskins: We did see a jump up after the announcement of phase one in those later years. That definitely is a driver just as well as just normal course you expect as more supply gets absorbed in the market. You do start to see prices move up. A catalyst is definitely the phase one announcement. As far as our hedge position in the liquidity, I would say we're more hedged than we maybe would have been when you're looking out through 2027 and 2028, just given some of the longer duration hedges that we have. The liquidity still is not as robust as you would see in the more near term. We're fairly significantly hedged in through 2027 and to a lesser extent when you get to 2028, where we're more modestly hedged.
Catalyst is definitely the phase one announcements so as far as our hedge position and the liquidity.
Speaker #4: Course you expect as more supply gets absorbed in in the market , you do start to see prices move up , but yeah , catalyst is definitely the phase one announcement .
I'd say, we are more hedged than we maybe would have been when youre looking out through 2000 and 728.
Just given some of the longer duration hedges that we have so the liquidity is still still is not as robust as you would see in the more near term, but yeah, we're fairly significantly hedged in and.
Speaker #4: So as far as our hedge position in the liquidity , I would say we're more hedged than than we maybe would have been .
Speaker #4: When you're looking out through 27 and 28 , just given some of the the longer duration hedges that we have . So the liquidity still still is not as robust as , as you would see in the more near term .
Through two.
<unk> 2007 and to a lesser extent when you get to 28, where we're more modestly hedged.
Speaker #4: But yeah , we're fairly significantly hedged in in through 27 . And to a lesser extent , when you get to 28 , where where we're more modestly hedged .
Okay that sounds good and congrats again. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you one moment as we move on to our next question.
Our next question will come from the line of Maurice Choy with RBC capital markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Speaker #9: Okay, that sounds good. And congrats again. Thank you.
[Analyst]: Okay, that sounds good. Congrats again. Thank you.
Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Just wanted to come back to your comments on phase one of the ACO launch the connection earlier.
Speaker #4: Thank you .
Sandra Haskins: Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you . One moment as we move on to our next question , our next question will come from the line of Maurice Choy with RBC Capital Markets .
Operator: Thank you. One moment as we move on to our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Maurice Choy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Earlier, you mentioned that you can offer ppas as part of phase one.
Speaker #1: Your line is open. Please go ahead.
We also note that a third party developer has secured over 900 Megs of Q1, two gigawatts of kind of location. So can I first confirm if you still have your.
Speaker #10: Thanks. And good morning, everyone. I just wanted to come back to your comments on Phase One of the Aso large load connection.
[Analyst]: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I just wanted to come back to your comments on phase one of the ASO large load connection. Earlier, Avik, you mentioned that you could offer VPPAs as part of phase one. We also know that a third-party developer has secured over 900 MW of the 1.2 GW of allocation. Can I first confirm if you still have your 375 MW allocation from phase one? If not, what the big picture strategy here is for you?
Speaker #10: Earlier , I've you mentioned that you could offer Vpas as part of phase one . We also know that a third party developer has secured over 900 members of the 1.2GW of allocation , so can I first confirm if you still have your 3.5 allocation from phase one ?
<unk> five allocation from phase, one and if not what the big picture strategy here is for you.
Yes, yes, I can confirm that we don't have our $3 75.
We made note of that at the last quarter.
Speaker #10: And if not, what the big picture strategy here is for you?
In terms of what may or may not be captured I can't comment on that because it has not been.
Speaker #3: Yeah . Yes , Maurice , I can confirm that we don't have our 375 . I we made note of that at the last quarter in terms of what may or may not be captured .
Avik Dey: Yes, Maurice. I can confirm that we don't have our 375. We made note of that at the last quarter. In terms of what may or may not be captured, I can't comment on that because it's not been announced or disclosed at ASO. I think we feel pretty good that there are going to be projects in Alberta. We also feel pretty good that for anything that needs to have an in-service date in 2029 or earlier, we're going to be in a good position to provide them energy risk management or a PPA if and when they get announced.
<unk> or <unk>.
Sure.
<unk> disclosed.
So, but I think we feel pretty good that there are going to be projects in Alberta.
Speaker #3: I can't comment on that because it's not been announced or disclosed at ASO, but I think we feel pretty good that there are going to be projects in Alberta.
And we also feel pretty good.
<unk>.
For anything that needs to have an in service date in 2009 or earlier that we're going to be in a good position to provide them energy energy risk management or a PPA.
Speaker #3: And we also feel pretty good that , you know , for anything that needs to have an in-service date in 29 or earlier that we're going to be in a good position to provide them energy , energy risk management or a PPA if and when they get announced .
If and when they get announced.
Understood.
Let's pull up to that like what do you think still remains in terms of the.
The milestone C Corps that gets announced that just given the policy.
Crossing the Ts and dotting the I's telcos will be to that to your <unk>.
[Analyst]: Understood. Let's just follow up to that. What do you think still remains in terms of the milestones before that gets announced? Is it just government policy? Is it just crossing the T's and dotting the I's? How close are we to that and to your VPPA?
Speaker #10: And with this follow up to that , like , what do you think still remains in terms of the milestones before that gets announced ?
Well, it's not our project so I can't comment on where.
Speaker #10: Is it just government policy ? Is it just crossing the T's and dotting the i's ? How close are we to that and to your VPA ?
The other project, maybe in the Q and their own negotiations, but.
I can say.
Virtue of our position in the market and our own decision, making around the $3 75.
Speaker #3: Well , it's not our project . So I can't comment on where another project may be in the queue . And their own negotiations .
Avik Dey: It's not our project, so I can't comment on where another project may be in the queue and their own negotiations. I can say, by virtue of our position in the market and our own decision-making around the 375, we understand that there's multiple projects in play that are advancing in the queue and will likely come out of the phase one process. What I would go back to on this, Maurice, is the decision on the 375 for us versus maintaining option value on the 1,000. It's really about our whole business plan and focusing on long-term contractedness and optimizing the value per megawatt at our plants and PV per kW and long-term pricing. We do have a strong bias in Canada in particular towards these larger projects because we think they're more likely to yield long-term contracts. That's not the case in the U.S.
<unk>.
We understand that there's there's multiple projects in play.
Speaker #3: But I can say , you know , by virtue of our position in the market and our own decision making around the 375 , you know , we we understand that , you know , there's there's multiple projects in play that are advancing in the Q and will likely come out of the phase one process .
Advancing.
In the queue and we'll likely.
Out of the phase one process and what I would go back to on this mores is.
The decision on the $3 75 for us versus maintaining option value on the 1000, it's really about our whole business plan and focusing on long term contract and this and optimizing the value.
Speaker #3: And what I would go back to on this , Maurice , is , you know , the decision on the 375 for us versus maintaining option value on the thousand .
Per megawatt at our plants FTE per kw and long term pricing and so we do have a strong bias in Canada in particular towards these larger projects because we think they are more likely to yield long term contracts. That's not the case in the U S because of.
Speaker #3: It's really about our whole business plan and focusing on long term contracts and optimizing the value of per megawatt at our plant . And per kW and long term pricing .
Speaker #3: And so we do have a strong bias in Canada in particular , towards these larger projects , because we think they're more likely to yield long term contracts .
Yeah on how mature the market is there.
And how much capital.
And how many players are chasing capacity in that market, where Alberta is a new and emerging data center market.
Speaker #3: That's not the case in the US because of , you know , how mature the market is . There and how much capital and how many players are chasing capacity in that market .
Avik Dey: because of how mature the market is there and how much capital and how many players are chasing capacity in that market. Where Alberta is a new and emerging data center market, we continue to favor scale because of the likelihood of converting that into long-term PPAs.
We continue to favor our scale because of the likelihood of converting that into long term ppas.
Understood and maybe just to finish up on that same theme. It's obviously been a lot of discussion about potentially introducing nuclear energy in Alberta I noted.
Speaker #3: Where Alberta is a new and emerging data center market , we continue to to favor a scale because of the likelihood of converting that into long term PPAs .
We've talked about this before and.
And I recognize it's very early days.
Speaker #3: .
Speaker #10: Understood . And maybe just the finish up on that same theme . It's obviously been a lot of discussion about potentially introducing nuclear energy in Alberta .
[Analyst]: Understood. Maybe just to finish up on that same theme, there's obviously been a lot of discussion about potentially introducing nuclear energy in Alberta. I know that we've talked about this before, but I recognize that it's very early days. From Capital Power's perspective, what do you see your role being? What are the conditions that you need to see before potentially investing in this technology in the province?
From capital Power's perspective.
What do you see your rule.
And what are the conditions that you need to see before potentially investing in this technology in the province.
Speaker #10: And I know that we've talked about this before, recognizing that it's very early days from Capital Power's perspective. What do you see your role being, and what are the conditions that you need to see before potentially investing in this technology and the province?
Well I think if we've put technology aside.
Specific some are technology and just look through the lens of is nuclear viable in Alberta.
Speaker #3: Well , I think if we put technology aside , you know , specific SMR technology and just look through it , the lens of is nuclear viable in Alberta ?
We've engaged in this we've got a best in class partner with LPG.
Avik Dey: If we put technology aside, you know, specific SMR technology, and just look through it the lens of, is nuclear viable in Alberta? We've engaged in this. We've got a best-in-class partner with OPG, and the province and the federal government have been supportive of us looking at the viability of nuclear in Alberta. The province has been very clear in its interest to determine the viability of nuclear in Alberta. We're still in that early phase of, A, consultation, B, validating the technology, and C, understanding how nuclear would work within the existing framework, the electricity framework for the province. We do think that there is ultimately a role for nuclear, but we don't yet have the validation for how we would contract those assets in the existing energy-only market. You can't get ahead of ourselves through the process. This would be a long-term commitment.
The province, and the federal government has been supportive of us looking at the viability of nuclear in Alberta.
Speaker #3: We we've engaged in this . We've got a best in class partner with OPG and the province and the federal government have been supportive of us looking at the viability of nuclear in Alberta , the province has been very clear in its interest to determine the viability of nuclear in Alberta .
The province has been very clear in its.
Interest to deter.
To determine the viability of nuclear in Alberta, and so we're still in that early phase of a consultation be validating the technology and see understanding how nuclear would work within the existing framework.
The electricity framework for the province, So we do think that there is ultimately a role for nuclear but we don't yet have the validation for how we would contract those assets in the existing energy only market, but you can't.
Speaker #3: And so we're still in that early phase of a consultation . Be validating the technology and see understanding how nuclear would work within the existing framework .
Speaker #3: The electricity framework for the province . So we do think that there is ultimately a role for nuclear , but we don't yet have the validation for how we would contract those assets in the existing energy .
Can't get ahead of we can't get ahead of ourselves through the process.
This would be a long term commitments.
We haven't had low like this.
Speaker #3: Only market . But you can't . You can't get ahead of we can't get ahead of ourselves through the process . This would be a long term commitment .
Initial investments required to bring the industry to Alberta.
Okay.
Okay.
It has been to date that the existing market structure will continue and you have to find commercial ways to bring in load and so today, where these projects are longer duration highly capital intensive.
Speaker #3: We haven't had load like this . There's an initial investment required to bring the industry to Alberta and province . To date , that the existing market structure will continue , and you have to find commercial ways to bring in load .
Avik Dey: We haven't had load like this. There's initial investment required to bring the industry to Alberta. The province has been to date that the existing market structure will continue, and you have to find commercial ways to bring in load. Today, where these projects are longer duration, highly capital-intensive, they are not economic to do or to FID or spend material capital on. As we look out, our role is to manage that load growth over 10, 20, 30 years from a system planning perspective and understand that technology and understand when and if it's approved as a viable technology, how do we ultimately commercialize it? It's a long-winded answer to really say that today it's not economic. We're excited about it. We're exploring it with best-in-class experts. We're collaborating with government. We're keen to move to the next step.
Today, they are not economic to do.
<unk>.
<unk> or spend material capital on but as we look out our role is to manage that load growth over 10, 2030 years from our system planning perspective.
Speaker #3: And so today , where these projects are longer duration , highly capital intensive , you know , today they're not economical to do or to FID or spend material capital on .
And understand that technology and understand when and if it's approved as a viable technology, how do we ultimately commercialize it so it's a long winded answer.
Speaker #3: But as we look out , our role is to , manage that load growth over ten , 20 , 30 years from a system planning perspective and understand that technology and understand , you know , when and if it's approved as a viable technology , how do we ultimately commercialize it ?
To really say that today, it's not economic we're excited about it we're exploring it with best in class experts, we're collaborating with governments.
We're keen to move to the next step, but from a capital power perspective in terms of capital allocation or putting risk capital towards its not something we expect to do.
Speaker #3: So it's a long winded answer to really say that today it's not economic . We're excited about it . We're exploring it with the best in class experts .
Speaker #3: We're collaborating with government . And , you know , we're keen to move to the next step . But from a capital power perspective , in terms of capital allocation or putting risk capital towards it , it's not something we expect to do in the short to medium term , unless there's something material that changes commercially .
In the short to medium term unless theres something material that changes commercially.
Avik Dey: From a Capital Power perspective, in terms of capital allocation or putting risk capital towards it, it's not something we expect to do in the short to medium term unless there's something material that changes commercially.
Yeah.
Perfect. Thanks for the color and congrats to both Sandra and Scott will catch up at the Investor Day.
Thank you and one moment our next question.
Our next question comes from the line of John Mould with TD Cowen. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Speaker #10: Perfect . Thanks for the color and congrats to both Sandra and Scott . We'll catch up at the Investor Day .
[Analyst]: Perfect. Thanks for the color, and congrats to both Sandra and Scott. We'll catch up at the end of today.
Yes.
Hi, Thanks, good morning, everybody.
Turning off I'd, just like to pass on my congratulations to Sandra I. Appreciate all your hope over the years and congrats to Scott as well.
Speaker #1: Thank you . And one moment for our next question . Our next question comes from the line of John Mould with TD Cowan .
Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of John Mould with TD Cowen. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Going back to and CV, you've been able to both extend that contract and have this.
Speaker #1: Your line is open . Please go ahead .
Speaker #11: Hi . Thanks . Good morning everybody . Starting off I just like to pass on my congratulations to Sandra . Appreciate all your help over the years .
[Analyst]: Hi. Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Starting off, I'd just like to pass on my congratulations to Sandra. Appreciate all your help over the years, and congrats to Scott as well. Going back to MCV, you've been able to both extend that contract and have this potential colocation piece for the merchant capacity. Looking across the rest of the U.S. fleet, are there other sites with similar characteristics where you can potentially do both? Is it really more a case of one or the other, you know, either extending your existing contracts or looking to do something on the colocation side? In those markets, how does the customer appetite for the colocation solution compare with the interest you saw in Michigan?
Potential colocation piece for the merchant capacity will do across rest of the U S fleet or are there other sites with similar characteristics, where you can potentially do both or.
Speaker #11: And congrats to Scott as well . Going back to McVie , you've been able to both extend that contract and have this potential co-location piece for the merchant capacity .
Is it really more.
The case of one of the other either extending your existing contracts, we're looking to do something on the Colocation side.
Speaker #11: Looking across the rest of the US fleet , are there other sites with similar characteristics where you can potentially do both , or is it really more a case of of one or the other , either extending your existing contracts or looking to do something on the co-location side ?
And in those markets, how does the customer appetite for the Coalification solution compare with.
The interest you saw in Michigan.
Thanks, John for the question.
So we have multiple opportunities at multiple sites. So I would say in the range of outcome. The things that we're focused on are upgrades expansions re contracting in the data center opportunity.
Speaker #11: And in those markets , how does the customer appetite for the qualification solution compare with the interest you saw in Michigan ?
Speaker #3: Thanks , John , for the question . So we have multiple opportunities at multiple sites . So I would say in the range of outcome , the things that we're focused on are upgrades , expansions , recontracting and the data center opportunity on our fleet .
Avik Dey: Thanks, John, for the question. We have multiple opportunities at multiple sites. I would say in the range of outcome, the things that we're focused on are upgrades, expansions, recontracting, and the data center opportunity. On our fleet, we have one or more of those opportunities on Hummel, Rolling Hills, Arlington, Park, La Paloma. I would highlight those as the ones that are most near term. What I would say, and this is something that we projected and advocated at our Investor Day in 2024, was we think that this is really about finding balanced energy solutions. What that really means today is you have to work with and cooperate and collaborate with load-serving entities, as we demonstrated at MCV.
On our fleet, we have one or more of those opportunities on Hummel Rolling Hills.
Arlington Park, while 12 months and I would highlight those as the ones that are most near term what I would say and this is something that we projected and advocate it at our Investor Day. In 2024 was we think that this is really about finding balance.
Speaker #3: We have one or more of those opportunities on Hummel Rolling Hills , Arlington Park , La Loma , and I would highlight those as the ones that are most near term .
<unk> solutions and what that really means today is you have to work with and cooperate and collaborate with load serving entities.
Speaker #3: What I would say , and you know , this is something that we . Projected and advocated at our our Investor Day in 2024 was we think that this is really about finding balanced energy solutions .
As we demonstrated in MTBE.
So for us.
The way we're attacking this opportunity set is really talking to everybody and understanding how we balance the needs of.
Speaker #3: And what that really means today is you have to work with and cooperate and collaborate with local serving entities . As we demonstrated at MCV .
Our partners and fellow players in the market load serving entities and what their objectives are with what our customers objectives or whether it's a data center provider or or some other large load and finding ways. We can make win win solutions.
Speaker #3: So for us, the way we're attacking this opportunity set is really by talking to everybody and understanding how we balance the needs of our partners.
Avik Dey: For us, the way we're attacking this opportunity set is really talking to everybody and understanding how we balance the needs of our partners and fellow players in the market, load-serving entities, and what their objectives are with what our customers' objectives are, whether it's a data center provider or some other large load, and finding ways we can make win-win solutions, whether it's through upgrades, expansions, working with load-serving entities, and ultimately marrying those opportunities with our own, whether it's behind-the-fence colocation or grid-integrated, grid-connected opportunities. On the data center opportunity specifically, as I've said before, we don't believe there's a large opportunity to do these data centers behind the fence because of reliability requirements. You can do it, but the cost of generation to support 5.9's reliability will greatly exceed the economics of the price per megawatt to make that work.
Speaker #3: And fellow players in the market . Load serving entities and what their objectives are with what our customers objectives are , whether it's a data center provider or or some other large load , and finding ways we can make win win solutions , whether it's , through upgrades , expansions , you know , working with load serving entities and then ultimately marrying those opportunities with with our own , whether it's , you know , behind the fence co-location or grid integrated grid connected opportunities on the data center , opportunity specifically , as I've said before , we don't believe there's a large opportunity to do , you know , these data centers behind the fence because of reliability requirements , you can do it .
Whether it's through upgrades expansions, we're working with the load serving entities and then ultimately marrying those opportunities with with our own.
Whether it's behind the fence co location of our grid integrated.
Grid connected opportunities on the data center opportunity specifically as I've said before we don't believe there is a large opportunity to do.
These data centers behind the fence because of reliability requirements.
You can do it but the cost of generation to support five nines reliability will greatly exceed.
The economics of that.
The price per megawatt to make that work, so we think being able to grid connect.
Speaker #3: But the cost of generation to support five nines reliability will greatly exceed , you know , the economics of the the the price per megawatt to make that work .
It is a significant advantage.
And then being able to work with stakeholders in those markets will be critical to successful outcomes. It's once again, it's why we're bullish on the Alberta opportunity set.
Speaker #3: So we think , you know , being able to grid connect . Is a significant advantage . And then being able to work with stakeholders in those markets will be critical to successful outcomes .
Avik Dey: We think being able to grid connect is a significant advantage, and being able to work with stakeholders in those markets will be critical to successful outcomes. It's once again why we're bullish on the Alberta opportunity set because there is transmission distribution. Whether our role is to sell power and/or provide a site that we can sell, this is what we've seen and learned in the U.S. market, and that's what we've been leveraging in our approach in Alberta.
There is transmission distribution.
And whether our role is to sell power and or provide a site that we can sell.
Speaker #3: It's once again why we're bullish on the Alberta opportunity set , because there is transmission distribution and whether our role is to sell power and or provide a site that we can sell .
This is what we've seen and learned in the U S market and that's what we've been leveraging.
In our <unk>.
Our approach in.
Alberta.
Okay, great. Thanks for all that color and then maybe pivoting to the Alberta opportunity just in terms of an early look on the phase III pre engagement it seems like a big.
Speaker #3: You know , this is what we've seen and learned in the US market . And that's what we've been leveraging in our in our in , in Alberta .
But your own power requirements going to be likely in some fashion for phase two to reach that gigawatt scale opportunity. If you did post something at Genesee, but you need to add new build there.
Speaker #11: Okay . Great . Thanks for for all that color . And then maybe pivoting to that Alberta opportunity just in terms of an early look on the phase two pre-engagement , you know , it seems like a bring your own power requirements going to be likely in some fashion for phase two to reach that gigawatt scale opportunity .
[Analyst]: Okay. Great. Thanks for all that color. Maybe pivoting to that Alberta opportunity, just in terms of an early look on the phase two pre-engagement, it seems like putting your own power requirements is going to be likely in some fashion for phase two. To reach that gigawatt scale opportunity, if you did host something in Genesee, would you need to add new build there? I note that in addition to the spare capacity you've got at Genesee 1 and 2, you do have a 1.5 gigawatt early stage combined cycle project there on the connection list. How are you thinking about that? How do you think about the relative attractiveness of deploying capital into potential new build in Alberta versus additional gas M&A in the U.S.?
And existing too.
Spare capacity, you've got at Genesee, one and two you do have.
One five gigawatt early states combined cycle project during the connection lists so.
Speaker #11: If you did host something at Genesee , would you need to add new build there ? I note that in existing to the spare capacity you've got at Genesee one and two , you do have a 1.5GW early stage combined cycle project there , and the connection list .
How are you thinking about that and how do you think about the relative track attractiveness of Av dips.
Deploy capital into.
Potential newbuild in Alberta versus new additional.
Speaker #11: So how are you thinking about that and how do you think about the relative attractiveness of of , you know , deploying capital into potential new build in Alberta versus additional gas energy in the US ?
Gas in EMEA and the U S.
Yeah, Great question. So one we're not contemplating newbuild in Alberta, as part of our entry into that phase III.
Second we could contemplate it if there was a customer for it.
But you can need to look at the life of these assets versus contracting terms, we would not take merchant exposure on new build in Alberta.
Speaker #3: Yeah, great question. So one, we're not contemplating new builds in Alberta as part of our entry into that phase two.
Avik Dey: Yeah. Great question. One, we're not contemplating new build in Alberta as part of our entry into that phase two. Second, we could contemplate it if there was a customer for it. You need to look at the life of these assets versus contracting terms. We would not take merchant exposure on new build in Alberta. Third, relative to the U.S. or Alberta, I think whether it's, and I'll focus more on expansion and repowering than a straight new build because I think it will be unlikely we will take on a new build unless we've got strong partners and a strong offtake agreement. Those opportunities seem more prevalent in the U.S. today than they are in Canada.
Speaker #3: Second , we could contemplate it if there was a customer for it . But you need to look at the life of these assets versus contracting terms .
Relative to the us or Alberta.
Whether it's and I'll focus more on expansion on Repowering demonstrate newbuild, because I think it will be unlikely we will take on a new build unless.
Speaker #3: We would not take merchant exposure on new build in Alberta . Third , relative to the US or Alberta . You know , I think whether it's and I'll focus more on expansion and repowering than a straight new build because I think it will be unlikely we will take on a new build unless , you know , we've got strong partners and a strong off take agreement .
We've got strong partners and a strong off take agreement for those opportunities seem more prevalent in the U S. Today than they are in Canada, but I think from the expansion and Repowering perspective, we see those as.
Better near term opportunities because you've got a better line of sight of having a in service date that meets the needs of the customers. So as we think about new build capacity in Alberta. The trick becomes how do you look at our new build and have an in service date that need.
Speaker #3: But those opportunities seem more prevalent in the US today than they are in Canada . But , you know , I think from the expansion and repowering perspective , you know , we see those as better near-term opportunities because you've got a better line of sight of having a in date that meets the needs of the customers .
Avik Dey: I think from the expansion and repowering perspective, we see those as better near-term opportunities because you've got a better line of sight of having an in-service date that meets the needs of the customers. As we think about new build capacity in Alberta, the trick becomes how do you look at a new build and have an in-service date that meets the needs of the customer? That's why we feel so strongly about our position in the market. We've already paid for completed new build capacity through our repowering project in Alberta that's available now. We think that positions us very well relative to the market. I think the new build piece or construction exposure or development capital exposure, we have a bias to the U.S. market today.
For me the customer again, that's why we feel so strongly about our position in the market. We've already paid for completed Newbuild capacity through our Repowering project in Alberta, that's available now.
Speaker #3: So as we think about new build capacity in Alberta , the trick becomes , how do you look at a new build and have an in-service date that meets the need of customer ?
Speaker #3: Again, that's why we feel so strongly about our position in the market. We've already paid for completed new build capacity through our repowering project in Alberta, which is available now.
And so we think that.
<unk> us very well relative to the market, but I think the newbuild piece or construction exposure or development capital exposure.
We have a bias to the U S market today.
Speaker #3: And so we think that , you know , positions us very well relative to the market . But I think the new build Peace or construction exposure or development capital exposure , we have a bias to the US market today .
Okay. Thanks for that I'll leave it there thanks for taking my questions.
Thank you and one moment for your next question.
Our next question will come from the line of Robert Lee.
Thank you. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone and my congrats as well to a center and Scott.
Speaker #11: Okay . Thanks for that . I'll leave it there . Thanks for taking my questions .
[Analyst]: Okay. Thanks for that. I'll leave it there. Thanks for taking my questions.
Speaker #1: Thank you . And one moment for our next question . Our next question will come from the line of Robert Hope with Scotiabank .
Maybe carrying on the conversation on phase two has there been any changes to the customers that youre speaking there or the level of support that youre seeing for your kind of next phase of projects for phase two.
Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Robert Hope with Scotiabank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Speaker #1: Your line is open . Please go ahead .
Speaker #12: Morning , everyone . And my congrats as well to Sandra and Scott maybe carrying on the conversation on phase two . Has there been any changes to the customers that you're speaking there , or the level of support that you're seeing for your next phase of projects , for phase two ?
[Analyst]: Morning, everyone. My congrats as well to Sandra and Scott. Maybe carrying on the conversation on phase two, has there been any changes to the customers that you're speaking there or the level of support that you're seeing for your kind of next phase of projects for phase two?
No I can't say, we've seen different.
A different tone or different conversations or more conversations the interest has been there for Alberta now that we have the guardrails for phase one and phase two other continues to be interest so.
Speaker #3: No , I can't say we've seen different , you know , a different tone or different conversations or more conversations . The interest has been there for Alberta .
Avik Dey: No, I can't say we've seen a different tone or different conversations or more conversations. The interest has been there for Alberta. Now that we have the guardrails for phase one and phase two, there continues to be interest. I expect when we get better visibility on what came out of phase one, I expect to see more interest, in particular around larger customers. I would say we haven't seen more interest or less. It's continued to be the same.
When we get better visibility on what.
Came out of phase one.
Speaker #3: Now that we have the guardrails for phase one and phase two , other continues to be interest . So , you know , I expect when we get better visibility on what came out of phase one , I expect to see more interest in particular around larger customers .
I expect to see more interest in.
In particular around larger customers, but I would say we haven't we haven't seen.
More interest or less it's continued to be the same.
Okay I.
I appreciate that and then just as a follow up on that so the phase II process as was outlined by the ASO is quite long.
Speaker #3: But I would say we haven't . We haven't seen more interest or less . It's continued to be the same .
When you think about your positioning and the fact that you have 450 megs at Genesee there unused right now like is there a way to potentially fast track that process and are you in consultation.
Speaker #12: Okay . Appreciate that . And then just as a follow up on that , so the phase two process , as was outlined by the Aso , is quite long when you think about your positioning and the fact that you have 450 Meg's at Genesee that are unused right now , like , is there a way to potentially fast track that process , and are you in consultation with the government or the Aso because your situation is a bit different than , you know , a pure bring your own power solution ?
[Analyst]: Okay. Appreciate that. Just as a follow-up on that, the phase two process, as was outlined by the ASO, is quite long. When you think about your positioning and the fact that you have 450 MW at Genesee that are unused right now, is there a way to potentially fast-track that process? Are you in consultation with the government or the ASO because your situation is a bit different than a pure bring-your-own-power solution?
With the government or the ISO because your situation is a bit different than.
On a pure bring your own power solution.
I think overall the ASR.
And the ministries have been constructive on how to go into phase III and I think there will be some bespoke conversations with parties.
Our focus right now is very clearly getting our technical solution approved.
Speaker #3: I think overall the Aso and the ministries have been constructive on how to go into phase two , and I think there will be some bespoke conversations with parties .
Avik Dey: I think overall, the ASO and the ministries have been constructive on how to go into phase two. I think there will be some bespoke conversations with parties. I think our focus right now is very clearly in getting our technical solution approved, which will unlock us to 566. Over and above that, we've got additional capacity available. For us, the sequencing, which is independent of the phase two process, is let's get our technical solution validated. Let's get the ASO on board with our solution and get those volumes unlocked. I think we'll have constructive conversations in phase two. Most importantly, Rob, as you look at our portfolio, the way we look at it is whether it's through phase two or phase one and you look at the strip in Alberta on pool price, our job is to go maximize value per megawatt on our plants and our dispatch.
Which will unlock up to $5 66, and then over and above that we've got additional capacity available so for us the sequencing.
Speaker #3: I think our focus right now is very clearly in getting our technical solution approved , which will unlock us to 566 and then over and above that , we've got additional capacity available .
Which is independent of the phase II process is lets get our technical solution validated let's get the so onboard with our solution.
Speaker #3: So for us , the sequencing , which is independent of the phase two process , is let's get our technical solution validated . Let's get the Aso on board with our solution .
And get those volumes on a month and I think we'll have constructive conversations with phase II, but I think most importantly, rob.
As you look at our portfolio.
The way we look at is whether it's through phase two or phase one and you look at the strip in Alberta on full price our jobs to go maximize value per megawatt on our plants and our dispatch.
Speaker #3: And get those volumes unlocked . And I think we'll have constructive conversations on phase two . But I think most importantly , Rob , you know , as you look at our portfolio , the the way we look at it is whether it's through phase two or phase one , and you look at the strip in Alberta on pool price , our job is to go maximize value per megawatt on our plants and our dispatch .
So whether we're in phase one or phase two is less important than what's the probability. We can go contract pricing contract volumes at attractive pricing short medium and long term. So we feel really good about that opportunity set right now.
Speaker #3: And so whether we're in phase one or phase two is less important than what's the probability we can go contract pricing contract volumes at attractive pricing short , medium and long term .
Avik Dey: Whether we're in phase one or phase two is less important than what's the probability we can go contract pricing, contract volumes at attractive pricing, short, medium, and long term. We feel really good about that opportunity set right now. The longer phase two takes and the more volumes that get taken up in phase one and the more interest there is in the market, I think the better liquidity we'll see in the back end of the curve and the more opportunities there will be for us to go contract, which is how we're looking at the opportunity set.
So the longer phase III takes.
And the more volumes that get taken up in phase one and the more interest there is in the market.
I think the better liquidity you will see in the backend of the curve and the more opportunities there won't be for us to go contract, which is how we're looking at the opportunity set we will continue to have this option.
Speaker #3: So we feel really good about that opportunity set right now . And so the longer phase two takes and the more volumes that get taken up in phase one and the more interest there is in the market .
On Genesee because our.
Speaker #3: You know , I think the the better liquidity . We'll see in the back end of the curve and the more opportunities there will be for us to go contract , which is how we're looking at the opportunity set .
I firmly believe our site is one of the most attractive sites on the continent.
For a large data center because of our access to fiber because of our access to water because of an interconnect.
Speaker #3: We will continue to have this option on Genesee because our our I firmly believe our site is one of the most attractive sites on the continent for a large data center because of our access to fiber , because of our access to water , because of our interconnect , and because of the , you topography and location where we are at JSC , outside of Edmonton .
Avik Dey: We will continue to have this option on Genesee because I firmly believe our site is one of the most attractive sites on the continent for a large data center because of our access to fiber, because of our access to water, because of our interconnect, and because of the topography and location where we are at Genesee outside Edmonton. All those things are positive for the market overall. Most importantly, we feel strongly we're best positioned to sell power into this tightening market over the short to medium term. The outlook for Alberta is quite good right now as we look out from a tightening of the market and a pricing perspective and the limited number of generators there are and capacity there is.
And because of the topography and location.
We are a chance to be outside of <unk>. So all of those things are positive for the market overall, but most importantly, we feel strongly we're best positioned to sell power into this tightening market over the short to medium term the outlook for Alberta is quite good.
Speaker #3: So all those things are positive for the market overall . But most importantly , we feel strongly we're best positioned to sell power into this tightening market over the short to medium term .
Right now as we look out from a tightening of the market.
<unk> perspective.
The limited number of generators, there are and capacity there is and being at the right end of the America curve here with the lowest heat rate plants, most efficient plant in the country and the largest plant providing net.
Speaker #3: The outlook for Alberta is quite good right now as we look out from a tightening of the market and a pricing perspective . And , you know , the limited number of generators there are in capacity , there is .
Power's net to grid, we think that we're pretty pretty well positioned.
Speaker #3: And being at the right end of the curve here with the lowest heat rate plant , most efficient plant in the country and the largest plant providing net , you know , power net to grid .
Avik Dey: Being at the right end of the merit curve here with the lowest heat rate plant, most efficient plant in the country, and the largest plant providing net power net to grid, we think that we're pretty well positioned.
That's great. Thank you.
Thank you and as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone.
Speaker #3: We think that we're pretty , pretty well positioned .
And our next question will come from the line of Mark Jarvi with CIBC. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Speaker #12: That's great. Thank you.
[Analyst]: That's great. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you . And as a reminder , if you would like to ask a question , please press star one one on your telephone .
Yes, thanks, everyone, Congrats Scott and Sandra and thanks for all the time of the last couple of years syndrome, and great to work with you.
Operator: Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone. Our next question will come from the line of Mark Jarvi with CIBC. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Just one on Midland.
Speaker #1: And our next question will come from the line of Mark Jarvi with CIBC . Your line is open . Please go ahead .
And the data center customer can you talk about any regulatory approvals contract structure or what has to get done there and then I think Todd asked a question of like when the load could Ram if you could maybe just share some color in terms of when.
Speaker #13: Yeah . Thanks , everyone . Congrats , Scott and Sandra , and thanks for all the time . The last couple of years .
[Analyst]: Yeah. Thanks, everyone. Congrats, Scott and Sandra, and thanks for all the time over the last couple of years, Sandra. It's been great to work with you. Just on Midland and the data center customer, can you talk about any regulatory approvals, the contract structure, what has to get done there? I think Pat asked the question of like when the load could ramp. If you could maybe just share some color in terms of when this could move forward.
Speaker #13: Sandra been great to work with you . Just on on Midland and the data center . Customer , can you talk about any regulatory approvals contract structure , what has to get done there ?
This could move forward.
Yes, thanks for the question Mark so.
Yes, there will be some regs.
Speaker #13: And then I think Pat asked the question of when the load could ramp. If you could maybe just share some color in terms of when this could move forward.
Our regulatory procedural.
Approvals require.
And then secondly, we're not in a position to say when an in service date would be for this project.
Speaker #3: Yeah . Thanks for the question mark . So yes , there will be some regulatory procedural approvals required . And then secondly , we're not in a position to say when an in-service date would be for this project .
Avik Dey: Thanks for the question, Mark. Yes, there will be some regulatory procedural approvals required. We're not in a position to say when an in-service date would be for this project. We do think that over the next 6 to 12 months, we can firm up the opportunity and the contract in partnership with our customer here. I can't give you more color than that right now. You can assume that the in-service date, given the fact that we have existing power and existing capacity, is short to medium term, not long term.
We do think that over the next six to 12 months, we can firm up.
The opportunity and the contract.
Partnership with with our customer here.
But I think I can't give you more color than that right now, but you can assume that the in service date, given the fact that we have existing power given that we have existing capacity is.
Speaker #3: We do think that over the next 6 to 12 months , we can firm up the opportunity and and the contract in partnership with , with our customer here .
It's short to medium term not long term.
Speaker #3: But , you know , I think I can't give you more color than that right now . But you can assume that the in-service date , given the fact that we have existing power , given that we have existing capacity , is , you know , it's it's short to medium term , not long term .
Understood.
And then coming back to the concept of the phase one monetization and V. PPA like relative to when you brought up this concept on the Q2 call to now how would you say your confidence level is higher today than three months ago.
Speaker #13: Understood . And then coming back to the concept of the of the phase one monetization and VPA , like relative to when you brought up this concept on the Q2 call to now , how would you say confidence level is at higher today than three months ago ?
[Analyst]: Understood. Coming back to the concept of the phase one monetization and VPPA, like relative to when you brought up this concept on the Q2 call to now, how would you say confidence level? Is it higher today than three months ago?
Yeah, well just on the concept itself of us being able to sell power into this market. The confidence is the same.
Because we have high confidence in Q2 on it as we work through it so.
Speaker #3: Yeah . Well , just on the concept itself of us being able to sell power into this market , the confidence is is the same because we had high confidence in Q2 on it as we worked through it .
Avik Dey: On the concept itself of us being able to sell power into this market, the confidence is the same because we had high confidence in Q2 on it as we worked through it. I don't think our confidence could be higher than it was then. It's the same in our ability to price power into this market. I think the only thing that's probably the market has more exposure to is there's rumor to be projects that are coming online. We're excited to see which one, which projects actually come through and get announced and how we can support their build.
I don't think our confidence can be higher than it was then it's the same.
In our ability to price power into this market I think the only thing that's probably the market has more exposure to us.
Speaker #3: So , you know , I don't think our confidence could be higher than it was then . It's the same in our ability to price power into this market .
It was rumored to be projects that are coming online. So we're excited to see which one which projects actually come through and get announced and how we can support their bill.
Speaker #3: I think the only thing that the market has more exposure to is, you know, there are rumored to be projects that are coming online.
And then it does seem like you think well obviously the megawatts of can't dispatch Reno Genesee could be counted as new megawatts for phase two.
Speaker #3: So we're excited to see , you know , which one , you know , which projects actually come through and get announced . And you know how we can support their build .
It didn't seem too keen on building new generation unless you got a long term contract, but what other technologies battery any solar.
Speaker #13: Understood . And then it does seem like you think , well , obviously the megawatts that can't dispatch right now , Genesee could be counted as new megawatts for phase two didn't seem too keen on building new generation unless you got a long term contract .
[Analyst]: Understood. It does seem like you think, obviously, the megawatts it can't dispatch right now at Genesee could be counted as new megawatts for phase two. You didn't seem too keen on building new generation unless you got a long-term contract. What about other technologies, battery, any solar, or would you look to maybe power any data center site at Genesee through virtual VPAs with other developers providing gas?
Or would you look to maybe power any data center site at Genesee through virtual Ppas with other developers providing gas.
You mean, the others building gas on our site.
Speaker #13: What about other technologies? Battery? Any solar? Or would you look to maybe power any data center site at Genesee through virtual VPAs with other developers providing gas?
The PPA, where they might build it or refurbish the existing assets and then part of the solution for the data center at Genesee might be some generation that are co located or adjacent plus some power through V. P. P. S.
Speaker #3: You mean others building gas on our site ?
Avik Dey: You mean others building gas on our site?
Speaker #13: No, but more like a VPA where they might build it or refurbish the assets, and then part of the solution for the data center at Genesee might be some generation, either co-located or adjacent.
Yes.
[Analyst]: No, but more like a VPPA where they might build it or refurbish existing assets. Part of the solution for the data center at Genesee might be some generation either colocated or adjacent, plus some power through VPPAs.
We're totally open minded on that front I think that that's really that's been our point all along which is I think where we're one of the best if not the best and finding creative solutions to contracting power for customers.
Speaker #13: Plus some power through Vpas .
Speaker #3: Yeah , I mean , we're we're totally open minded on that front . I think that's that's really that's been our point all along , which is I think we're , we're one of the best , if not the best in finding creative solutions to contracting power for customers , whether it's bespoke or whether it's in partnership with others .
Avik Dey: Yeah. I mean, we're totally open-minded on that front. I think that's really been our point all along, which is I think we're one of the best, if not the best, in finding creative solutions to contracting power for customers, whether it's bespoke or whether it's in partnership with others. To answer your question of would we be open to other investments at our site, solar, no. Batteries, maybe. Again, it's really going to come down to contractedness and terms, and can we make our cost of capital? I think the growing opportunity, and I think this is a point I've made previously, our job in this market, whether it's us or any of our competitors, as an industry, our growth.
Whether it's bespoke or whether it's in partnership with others to answer your question of would we be open to other investments at our site.
Solar know batteries maybe.
But again, it's really going to come down to contracted.
Contracted Miss in terms.
And can we make our cost of capital.
Speaker #3: You know , to answer your question of would we be open to other investments at our site ? Solar ? No . Batteries , maybe .
I think the growing opportunity and I think this is a point I've made previously.
Our job in this market, whether it's us or any of our competitors.
Speaker #3: But again , it's really going to come down to , you know , contracted in terms . And can we make our cost of capital , you know , I think the growing opportunity and I think this is a point I've made previously , you know , our job in this market , whether it's us or any of our competitors , as , as an industry , our goal is to sell more power and bring in more demand .
As a as an industry our goal is to sell more power and bring in more demand.
And I think as an industry, we're doing a good job of that and on a relative basis I think we're exceptionally well positioned to sell that power given our fleet. So on Genesee I think we're open minded.
Avik Dey: to sell more power and bring in more demand.
Speaker #3: And I think as an industry , we're doing a good job of that . And on a relative basis , I think we're exceptionally well positioned to sell that power .
Operator: Okay.
Avik Dey: I think as an industry, we're doing a good job of that. On a relative basis, I think we're exceptionally well-positioned to sell that power given our fleet. On Genesee, I think we're open-minded. I'm not opposed to building, but today, I don't see a long-term PPA to substantiate that investment. If and when that comes at us, we'll look at it. We'll pursue it. I think phase two, we'll see what other customers come to the table. Overall, I feel pretty good. I can't remember who asked the question, but in terms of the outlook on coal prices and the more bullish curve that we have into 2027, 2028, yes, there was an upward movement post-June, around the announcement of phase one, but that was more than four months ago.
I'm not opposed to bill.
Building, but today.
See a long term PPA to substantiate that investment.
Speaker #3: Given our fleet . So , you know , on Genesee , I think we're open minded . So I'm not opposed to building , but today I don't see it a long term PPA to substantiate that investment .
If and when that comes at US we will look at it we will pursue it.
I think phase two will we'll see what other customers come come to the table, but overall I feel pretty good.
I think I can't remember, who asked the question but.
Speaker #3: If and when that comes at us , we'll look at it . We'll pursue it . You know , I think phase two will will see what other customers come , come to the table .
In terms of the outlook on oil prices.
You know the more bullish.
Alright.
Speaker #3: But yeah , overall I feel pretty good . I don't , you know , I think I can't remember who asked the question , but you know , in terms of the outlook on fuel prices and , you know , the more bullish , you know , curve that we have into 27 , 28 , you know , yes , there was an upward movement post June .
The curve that we have into 2728, yes.
Yes, there was an upward movement post June.
On the announcement of phase, one, but that was more than four months ago.
You know that firming of that price scenario in 2000, and 728 I think just more broadly speaks to the market's confidence that there will be growing demand in Alberta.
Speaker #3: You know , around the announcement of phase one . But you know , that was more than four months ago . So you know that firming of that price scenario in 27 , 28 , I think just more broadly speaks to the market's confidence that there will be growing demand in Alberta .
And I think it's just a timing question now.
Avik Dey: That firming of that price scenario in 2027, 2028, I think just more broadly speaks to the market's confidence that there will be growing demand in Alberta. I think it's just a timing question now. Do we see much of that load in 2027, 2028, or 2029? Overall, the support for higher prices and tightening supply, I think, is pretty favorable for Alberta.
Do we see much of that load in 2728 or 29, but overall the support for higher prices in <unk> and <unk>.
Tightening supply I think it's pretty favorable for Alberta.
Speaker #3: You know , I think it's just a timing question . Now , you know , do we see much of that load in 27 , 28 or 29 .
So it makes sense and then you identified some sites in the U S with multiple options Arlington Valley Harcrow Hollow Rolling Hills Hummel are any of those sites gas constrained if you do try to do upgrades or expansions.
Speaker #3: But overall , the support for higher prices and and , you know , tightening supply , I think is is pretty favorable for Alberta .
Speaker #13: Understood . Makes sense . And then you identified some sites in the US with multiple options I think Arlington Valley Harquahala Rolling Hills , Hummel .
Well I can't I can't make a blanket answer on that to each site is different.
Operator: Understood. Makes sense. You identified some sites in the U.S. with multiple options. I think Arlington Valley, Harquahala, Rolling Hills, Hummel. Are any of those sites gas-constrained if you do try to do uprates or expansions?
So for example, we aren't constrained as I as I said, when we acquired Rolling Hills.
Speaker #13: Are any of those sites gas constrained ? If you do try to do up rates or expansions ?
We have available capacity.
Speaker #3: Well , I can't I can't make a blanket answer on that because each site is different . So for example , we aren't constrained as I as I said , when we acquired Rolling Hills , you know , we have available capacity at Rolling Hills , but we do not at Hummel .
Avik Dey: I can't make a blanket answer on that because each site is different. For example, we aren't constrained. As I said, when we acquired Rolling Hills, we have available capacity at Rolling Hills, but we do not at Hummel. We do think we have uprate opportunities at a couple of our plants in WEC, but we don't see viability for a data center or a colocation of a data center upfront. I think the way I look at our portfolio today is, we've got, call it, 2.6 gigawatts of contracted capacity in the U.S. that expire between 2029 and 2032, and we've got just over a couple gigawatts of fully merchant capacity in the U.S. We're trying to find ways to optimize that and increase it. It's a site-by-site response.
At Rolling Hills, but we do not at Homeware, we do think we have upgrade opportunities that a couple of <unk>.
But we don't see viability for a data center co location of a data center upfront, but so I think the way.
Speaker #3: You know , we do think we have uprate opportunities at a couple of our plants and WEC . But , you know , we don't see viability for a data center or co-location of a data center up front .
Way I look at our portfolio.
Today is.
We've got call. It two six gigawatts of contracted capacity in the U S that expire between 2009 and 2032 and we've got just over a couple of Gigawatts a fully merchant capacity in the U S.
Speaker #3: But so I think the way , you know , the way I look at our portfolio today is , you know , we've got call it , 2.6GW of contracted capacity in the US that expire between 29 and 2032 .
And we're trying to find ways to optimize that.
And increase it so.
It's a site by site.
Speaker #3: And we've got just over a couple gigawatts of fully merchant capacity in the US . And we're trying to find ways to optimize that .
Response, but as I said earlier in the call of those sites.
Pointed out there was one or more of those opportunities that each one of those sites.
Speaker #3: And and increase it . So , you know , it's it's a site by site response . But as I said earlier in the call of those sites that I pointed out , there's one or more of those opportunities that each one of those sites .
Got it alright, looking forward to connecting a couple of weeks.
Avik Dey: As I said earlier in the call, at those sites that I pointed out, there's one or more of those opportunities at each one of those sites.
Thank you and I'm showing no further questions at this time and I would like to hand, the conference back over to Arthur for closing remarks.
Yes.
Speaker #13: Got it all right . Looking to connecting a couple of weeks .
Operator: Got it. All right, looking forward to connecting in a couple weeks.
Thank you everyone for joining us today, we appreciate your continued interest and support from the capital power story.
Speaker #1: Thank you . And I'm showing no further questions at this time . And I would like to hand the conference back over to Roy Arthur for closing remarks .
Roy Arthur: Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the conference back over to Roy Arthur for closing remarks.
We will conclude the call now thank you.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect everyone have a great day.
Speaker #2: Thank you , everyone , for joining us today . We appreciate your continued interest and support in the Capital Power story . We will conclude the call now .
Avik Dey: Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your continued interest and support in the Capital Power story. We will conclude the call now. Thank you.
Speaker #2: Thank you .
Roy Arthur: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.