Q3 2025 Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp Earnings Call

Speaker #2: Good morning , and thank you for standing by . My name is John , and I will be your conference operator today . At this time , I would like to welcome everyone to the Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.

Speaker #2: third Quarter 2025 conference call . All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise . After the speakers remarks , there will be a question and answer session .

Speaker #2: If you would like to ask a question during this time , simply press star , followed by the number one on your telephone keypad .

Speaker #2: To withdraw your question , simply press star one . Again , I would now like to turn the conference over to Sheldon Vanderkooy CEO .

Speaker #2: Please go ahead .

Speaker #3: Thanks , John . Good morning , everyone , and thank you for joining us to discuss Triple Flag's third quarter results . Today I am joined by our CFO , Eban Bari , and our chief Operating Officer , James Dendle .

Speaker #3: 2025 has been an exceptional year so far , and Triple Flag has achieved another record quarter in Q3 . We recorded 27,000 GEOs in the quarter , which drove record adjusted EBITDA of 79 million and record operating cash flow per share of 30 of $0.39 .

Speaker #3: US shareholders are directly benefiting from the higher gold prices through higher cash flow per share . We should continue to benefit in Q4 and beyond as well as current gold prices are well in excess of the average gold price realized in Q3 .

Speaker #3: We expect to achieve 2025 GEOs between the midpoint and the high end of our 2025 guidance range . I am very pleased with the additions we have made to the portfolio year to date , year to date , triple flag has now deployed over $350 million of capital over five investments in H1 .

Speaker #3: We announced our investments in the lithium mine and Argentina . The Arcata Silver mine in Peru and an additional interest in the Johnson Camp copper mine in Arizona , all of which have now started production .

Speaker #3: Either in line or ahead of our investment case . Early in the third quarter , we completed our acquisition of a 1% NSR royalty on the Arthur project in Nevada , operated by AngloGold Ashanti and most recently , we have acquired a royalty package on Pan American s producing Minera Florida Gold mine in Chile for $23 million .

Speaker #3: James will provide further details on minerals Florida later in the presentation . This is exactly the sort of royalty that drives shareholder value over time in the royalty sector .

Speaker #3: As we have open ended exposure to top line revenues and resource expansion over time . Together , our investments year to date are providing near term increasing cash flows as well as longer dated optionality .

Speaker #3: They are also located in the right jurisdictions . The bulk of the value is in the western United States , and the remainder is in Chile , Peru and Argentina .

Speaker #3: I will now hand over to Evan to discuss our financials for the third quarter of 2025 .

Speaker #4: Thank you . Sheldon . As noted by Sheldon , we had an excellent third quarter with just over 27,000 geos . This puts triple flag on track to between the midpoint and high end of our 2025 GEOs guidance .

Speaker #4: These strong volumes in Q3 were delivered amid the backdrop of strong metal , precious metals prices , which reached a record quarterly average of nearly $3,500 per ounce for gold and nearly $40 per ounce for silver .

Speaker #4: Accordingly , we are pleased to highlight that operating cash flow per share the single most important metric we focus on as a company has increased by over 25% year over year .

Speaker #4: Accordingly , we are pleased to highlight that operating cash flow per share the single most important metric we focus on as a company has achieve sheet .

Speaker #4: We exited the quarter with essentially zero net debt despite deploying significant capital during the third quarter for the acquisition of the Arthur Gold Royalty and the Minera Florida Royalty .

Speaker #4: Today , we're in a net cash position . Overall , a strong balance sheet record operating cash flows and total liquidity available of nearly $1 billion provides us with a capital to continue deploying dollars into accretive opportunities to drive future growth for our shareholders .

Speaker #4: It also allows us to continue returning superior returns to shareholders , and we're pleased to declare a quarterly cash dividend of 5.7 $0.05 US per share .

Speaker #4: Triple flag remains focused on top tier precious metals assets , with revenue that's nearly 90% sourced from mining friendly jurisdictions in both Australia and the Americas .

Speaker #4: North Parks and Sierra continue to be two largest contributors to revenues . In the third quarter , with North Parks achieving another record quarter due to continued processing of higher open pit grades from stockpile door , triple flag sales mix remains 100% derived from precious metals , including nearly three quarters from gold .

Speaker #4: We do not expect this to materially change , and this will continue to provide investors with exposure to the strong gold and silver price environment .

Speaker #4: I will now turn it over to James to discuss the producing Minera Florida Gold mine in Chile .

Speaker #5: Thank you . Evan . Minera Florida is located approximately 75km southwest of Santiago in Chile and is owned and operated by Pan American Silver .

Speaker #5: It's an underground mine that produces gold and silver doré with zinc concentrate byproduct . During the third quarter , we were pleased to acquire a package of three net smelter return royalties on Minera Florida , ranging from 0.8% to 1.5% , for a total cash consideration of $23 million from a third party .

Speaker #5: Minera Florida has a long history of consistent performance , continuous operation and reserve replacement , and has produced over 2.5 million ounces of gold and 14,000,000oz of silver .

Speaker #5: Since commissioning in 1986 . The mine has always operated with a relatively short reserve life . Over the last 20 years , the mine has had approximately half 1,000,000oz of gold in reserves .

Speaker #5: At any one time , which equates to about 4 to 5 years of visible reserve life . Historic annual production at Monero , Florida has ranged between 75,000 and 100,000oz of gold per annum .

Speaker #5: Driven by mill expansion potential to increase the nameplate capacity , Triple Flag expects to goes from Florida to increase to approximately 1000oz by 2028 .

Speaker #5: The exploration potential is minus significant , and given Minera Florida's impressive track record of reserve replacement since 1986 , we see this asset continuing to perform for decades to come .

Speaker #5: I'll pass it back to Sheldon for closing remarks.

Speaker #3: Thank you . James . In closing , Triple Flag is performing very well and is positioned to continue this performance . Going forward .

Speaker #3: Our shareholders are benefiting from our strong current production and the increase in gold prices , which are translating into record cash flows per share .

Speaker #3: I am very pleased that our success in reinvesting those cash flows in further streams and royalties , which will benefit our shareholders for decades to come .

Speaker #3: There are a number of near term catalysts across our portfolio . First , Johnson Camp mine tray and our Cascada have all recently started production and will continue to ramp up into 2026 .

Speaker #3: Second on the project front , economic studies for Arthur and Hope Bay are on track for completion in the first half of 2026 , and we look forward to ongoing exploration updates on the Fletcher Zone from Beta Hunt .

Speaker #3: And finally , the Cone project continues to make good progress targeting production in 2027 . That concludes our presentation . Operator please open the floor to questions .

Speaker #2: Thank you , ladies and gentlemen , we will now begin the question and answer session as a reminder to everyone in order to ask a question , please press star , followed by the number one on your telephone keypad .

Speaker #2: And if you would like to withdraw your question , simply press star one again . We will pause for a moment to compile the Q&A roster .

Speaker #2: Thank you . Our first question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq with Jefferies . Please go ahead .

Speaker #6: Hi . Thanks for taking my questions . Just on the deal pipeline . Maybe talk a little bit more about how the menorah Florida are transaction was sourced .

Speaker #6: Was this I mean , it was a third party royalty from a family . Just curious if there was any sort of process or was this a relationship that was pre-existing ?

Speaker #6: Any more color there would be helpful ?

Speaker #5: Yeah . Fahad . Hi . I can take this . Yeah , it was a think a fairly concentrated process . We developed a bit of a rapport with the family over the course of negotiating the deal .

Speaker #5: And that was good because we actually were able to undertake a site visit . And very often , as you know , with these third party royalty sales , you can't do that .

Speaker #5: Whereas we actually had a team down in Chile earlier on in the year , spending a couple of days at site . So we had access to Pan American silver in this instance .

Speaker #5: And the whole mindset team .

Speaker #6: Okay , great . Yeah . That's helpful . And then maybe just switching gears to the ATO stream , it looks like there was an international arbitration that was started in early October .

Speaker #6: Can you maybe just give us an update on how the discussions are going with Step Gold and what's Triple Flag's expectation for a potential resolution ?

Speaker #7: Yeah . Hi . Hi , this is Sheldon . I'll take this one .

Speaker #3: We tried to be really transparent in the in the press release and gave give everyone like , direction on the legal proceedings . We've started .

Speaker #3: I'm a little limited in what I can say , but I can . I can provide some background and direction to to you in the market .

Speaker #3: First of all , I'm going to start by saying we're just extremely confident in our legal position . You know , we're owed about $10 million US steps market cap is a is a little over 500 million Canadian .

Speaker #3: They have production . They have cash flow . They clearly have the ability to pay . We are in dialogue with steps controlling shareholder .

Speaker #3: There is no doubt in my mind that they are building phase two . And the last thing I'd note is , you know , we're going to land in the top half of our guidance range even if we don't receive a single ounce from from step gold , you know , here to the end of the year , I really can't go any further into how this is going to get resolved .

Speaker #3: But , you know , I you know , we are in discussions and we are very confident in our legal position .

Speaker #6: Okay . And then just sorry , just maybe a follow up if you can answer this part , you're in discussions with the largest shareholder .

Speaker #6: Are you in discussions directly with Step Gold .

Speaker #3: I would take the largest shareholder as being in discussions with Step Gold.

Speaker #6: Okay . Fair enough . Thank you .

Speaker #2: Your next question comes from the line of Sam overwater with Scotiabank . Please go ahead .

Speaker #8: Hi. Good morning, everybody. I just had a question on the transaction opportunities. I think the last time we spoke, you guys were evaluating opportunities between $100 million and $300 million.

Speaker #8: I just wanted a little bit more color on that . Like what geographies . And jurisdictions are these opportunities in ? What are the structures of these deals ?

Speaker #8: Debt , equity stream , etc. ? Is there any royalty opportunities ? And then on top of that too , like what are the a lot of the purposes of this transaction in terms of asset sales , construction , funding , etc.

Speaker #8: ?

Speaker #3: Yeah . Hi . Thanks , Sam . I appreciate that . Yeah . The opportunity set , I think still is squarely in the 100 to 300 .

Speaker #3: Obviously , we've done deals that are smaller than that . We'll look at those . There are larger ones as as well . It's probably instructive to look at what we've done already year to date .

Speaker #3: You know , we've done $350 million of deals year to date . It's a pretty good mix of you know , smaller royalties than we had the larger Arthur transaction , which was actually a corporate transaction , which is just another way to find good assets at reasonable prices for for our portfolio .

Speaker #3: The , the , the opportunity set . It's a real mix . I mean , it's streams , it's royalties . I would say it's it's concentrated in jurisdictions that investors would be very happy with .

Speaker #3: You know , I would say like the Americas , traditional mining jurisdictions and the use of proceeds are what's driving it . It really runs the gamut .

Speaker #3: I think you kind of summed it up pretty , pretty well . It's people need money for various things , and that creates the opportunity for , for companies like ours to step in with , with , with financing .

Speaker #8: Great . Thank you . And then just on top of that as well , corporate transactions . How are you guys associated or assessing corporate transactions relative to sort other opportunities in the current landscape ?

Speaker #8: Is there anything you're currently considering ?

Speaker #3: Yeah , I mean , I don't view a big distinction between corporate transactions and other transactions . I mean , we we acquired that .

Speaker #3: Arthur royalty . It was via an acquisition of of origin and then a spin , you know , the Mavericks acquisition was a way to acquire a great portfolio at a reasonable price .

Speaker #3: So we're always looking for ways to add good assets to our portfolio at returns that are attractive and accretive to shareholder value .

Speaker #8: Great . Thank you . Then lastly , just triple currently have like a equity portfolio to sell or you considering any sales in an equity portfolio or anything like that .

Speaker #3: No .

Speaker #8: Great . Thank you . That's all for me .

Speaker #3: Thank you .

Speaker #2: Your next question comes from the line of Brian MacArthur from Raymond James . Please go ahead .

Speaker #9: Good morning , and thank you for taking my question . I just wondered if you can comment a little bit on Prieska and what's going on there .

Speaker #9: I mean , there's a statement , you know , Orion looks like they've signed a term sheet with Glencore , but what actually needs to happen there for you to move that forward ?

Speaker #9: Post , other than the , you know , South African regulatory approvals ?

Speaker #5: Hi , Brian , it's James , I'll pick that up . So as you recall , Prieska was always contemplated as a single integrated project comprising two zones that what they refer to as the uppers , which is the upper remnant areas of the historical mine and the deeps , which is the sort of untouched sulphide ore body .

Speaker #5: The deeps is of great interest to us because it hosts the precious metals . It also has the exploration upside , and it's the part of the body we're most focused on .

Speaker #5: The company through looking to stage their capital expenditures as disaggregated . The project to the uppers , which they'll develop first in the deeps that they'll develop progressively thereafter .

Speaker #5: There is a dewatering component to that . And as you noted , they've received , I think , a very supportive , non-binding letter of intent from Glencore , which they're working through at the moment .

Speaker #5: So that is all very positive given our primary economic interest is in the deeps . We will be evaluating the right , but not obligation to fund the stream into the deeps when they actually are at the stage to make final investment decision on that project .

Speaker #5: So we expect the company to make investment decision on the uppers . This year . And an investment decision on the deeps next year .

Speaker #5: So as a reminder , we have no obligation to fund the stream , but we like the asset . So it's a funding decision for triple flag in 2026 .

Speaker #9: But just to be clear , so can you I mean , can they develop the upper if you think of it that way with the money they have and you just get the option to wait and then just come in on the lower , or do you have to execute once they make a decision to do the upper ?

Speaker #9: If I want to look at it that way , that's that's what I'm trying to figure out , is when you're asking , I get it , you've got you , don't you have the option to do it or not to do it ?

Speaker #9: But I don't know if there's a drop dead part of the contract that makes you decide or whether you can wait and see how the second part goes .

Speaker #9: If you see what I'm saying .

Speaker #5: Yeah , we can wait until until the second part is ready to go . But the nice thing is that the company will be progressing with the dewatering of the deeps while mining the uppers , so that they continue to to de-risk and develop the project whilst we get the opportunity to wait to to make the investment decision .

Speaker #5: The deeps . So there's no drop dead in that sense . We just have the the opportunity to to wait a little longer .

Speaker #5: You recall we have a small royalty on on the projects as a whole . So on the upper start producing obviously the royalty will pay because that applies to both zones .

Speaker #9: Great . Thanks very much , James . That's very clear . Now .

Speaker #5: Yeah .

Speaker #10: No problem .

Speaker #2: Your next question comes from the line of Derek Ma with TD carbon . Please go ahead .

Speaker #11: Thank you . On the L stream disposal you got a fair amount of consideration to perhaps a win win situation for both parties .

Speaker #11: But could you discuss how the situation arose and how you evaluate these types of situations versus retaining optionality in the portfolio ?

Speaker #3: Yeah , sure . Derek , it's Sheldon . I'll speak to that . It's a fairly small mine . It's based in Honduras .

Speaker #3: We acquired as part of the the Mavericks portfolio . It was undercapitalized . And they were having difficulty . You know , servicing the stream as part as part of their of their operations .

Speaker #3: Eventually what we did and we're close to the operator there are private company . And we were looking for ways to get additional capital that was not our capital into that into that project .

Speaker #3: So they could be in a position to start paying out on the stream . Basically , I think this was a win , win , win situation where we found the outside capital .

Speaker #3: They're bringing that in and then we're structuring ourselves to come out on on these terms . It's it's good value for us . And I think it allows them to move forward without the stream in place .

Speaker #11: Okay . And how do you how do you evaluate these types of situations versus retaining optionality ? When you look across your portfolio , when other opportunities come up like this ?

Speaker #3: I mean , every situation is different . I think I put it this way , I'm very happy with the structure of this , of this and the way , the way this is being resolved .

Speaker #3: It's getting us good value out . It allows them to go on . Generally , we're not looking at selling streams , but this is a a structured sale of a stream .

Speaker #3: But it's really based on an asset by asset basis .

Speaker #11: Okay , Claire . Thank you .

Speaker #2: Once again , if you would like to ask a question , please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad .

Speaker #2: Our next question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu with CIBC . Please go ahead .

Speaker #12: Thanks . Sheldon , Eben and James . Maybe my first question is on the Florida . James , you mentioned that you were on site .

Speaker #12: My understanding is that you know , this past quarter or this past year , there's been some issues in terms of negative grade reconciliation , unplanned mine sequencing into lower grade ore zones .

Speaker #12: I think you mentioned that as much as well in your guidance . You said , I think Florida long term was capable of doing 75 to 100,000oz this past year , 78 to 90 .

Speaker #12: So the top end is lower . So I guess my question is , James , how much of that have you factored in into your valuation ?

Speaker #12: And is it just really a one off . And it's really going to bounce back ? Or how do you look at it .

Speaker #5: Yeah . Cause good question . You know the valuation and the production assumptions over a short period of time . Of course , you know , you consider what's actually happening on the short term as a guide to the long term .

Speaker #5: But the interesting thing is , you know , about Florida is there's a very , very long history of of operations here . So we actually had access full history of production records that gave us great confidence in the forecast .

Speaker #5: And at the end of the day , you know , quarterly variance in a gold mine is not a new thing . So for sure , there's quarterly variance .

Speaker #5: And , you know , on a month scale that exists and I'm sure it will occur in the future . But in the long term , we think the mine will operate in accordance to how it's operated historically , which is in the range we stated .

Speaker #5: .

Speaker #12: Of course . Thanks . Maybe switching gears a little bit bigger picture . You know , Sheldon , as you mentioned , reiterated in the in your release as well , 2029 guidance outlook .

Speaker #12: Outlook is you're still looking for 135,000 to 145,000 oz GEOs. That's a very good increase from what level you're at today. Could you maybe summarize for us what goes into that thinking?

Speaker #12: You know , what needs to come on for you to hit that growth into 2029 ?

Speaker #5: Yeah , sure . Of I can take that . We've got a few assets ramping up some newer assets to , you know , Sheldon mentioned the Arcata silver mine that is literally shipped concentrate for the first time this week .

Speaker #5: That'll be ramping up into 2026 . There are other assets , you know , obviously adding Florida as a small addition . Three Q Johnson camp all ramping up montage is building cone which which will will be additive to that outlook .

Speaker #5: But there's also we expect production increases from some of the operating mines . We expect after a lower year next year from northparkes that to start building back up again , we expect increased volumes from Platts , although incremental .

Speaker #5: Same with Beta Hunt for Westgold has been very public with an expansion to Beta Hunt . The 2 million tonnes per annum , which is on track .

Speaker #5: So all of those , all of those additions build up to the to the outlook number . So there isn't one specific asset that drives that increase .

Speaker #5: It's actually nicely diversified across a large suite of of well assets .

Speaker #12: Great . Thanks . And then maybe one last question . The 2025 GEOs , the gold silver ratio . You've used is 85 to 1 in terms of the calculation to GEOs , converting silver into gold , I just want to confirm , you know , silver is actually outperformed a little bit compared to gold in 2025 .

Speaker #12: That benefits triple flag . Am I correct in the sense that I think there's a good percentage of your revenue actually coming from silver ?

Speaker #12: That's number one . Number two , it also benefits your geo calculation . If I'm not mistaken . If you can confirm that as well .

Speaker #12: And then third , when do you consider , I guess changing that ratio or you know , I guess it's not too late in 2025 .

Speaker #12: It's not needed in 2025 . But how do you consider that into 2026 ?

Speaker #3: Hey , Sheldon , I'll take that . You know , 85 to 1 . That's pretty close to what it is right now .

Speaker #3: Obviously , it's volatile . It moves around . It's been various places during the year . I think year to date . And you're right .

Speaker #3: Obviously , as the as the silver price is stronger relative to the gold price , that helps geos and the opposite , when the opposite occurs , the year as a whole , we've actually had a bit of a headwind on the average silver price because just the timing of when the silver price ran .

Speaker #3: And I think that has come across in ourselves and all our peers. We always make an allowance for that. We're pretty conservative when trying to set our guidance.

Speaker #3: And and so we we just accommodated that within our production . Right now it's coming in line . And in terms of assessing it , I mean , we just every time we put out a new , new guidance or anything like that , we , we look at what the current gold , silver ratio is and make sure we're not too far out of line .

Speaker #3: And , and that is properly conservative . Obviously , when we do our 2026 guidance , we'll look at what the conditions are at that time .

Speaker #3: And and you know , react accordingly .

Speaker #10: Yep .

Speaker #12: Sounds like a good plan . I guess the important part , Sheldon , as you mentioned , is that you're now aiming for the top end of guidance .

Speaker #12: For 2020 .

Speaker #10: That's right . Perfect . Thanks again . Gold . Silver prices all the way through .

Speaker #12: Yep . Okay . Thanks , Sheldon . And Evan and James for answering all my questions . And congrats on a solid Q3 .

Speaker #3: Hey , thanks .

Speaker #10: Guys .

Speaker #2: At this time , we have no further questions . I will now turn the call over to Sheldon Vanderkooy for closing remarks .

Speaker #3: Yeah . Thanks everyone . Q3 was another good quarter , and we're actually having just a great year in 2025 . Really appreciate the support from all of our investors .

Speaker #3: Thank you all . By .

Speaker #2: Ladies and gentlemen . This concludes today's conference call . You may now disconnect your lines . We thank you for your participation . Have a pleasant day .