Q3 2025 Pembina Pipeline Corp Earnings Call

Operator: Welcome to the conferencing center.

Operator: Welcome to the conference center. Which conference are trying to join?

David Brown: The Pembina Pipeline.

Operator: All right. Spelling of your first and last name?

Speaker #3: One . Good morning , ladies and gentlemen . And welcome to the Pembina Pipeline Corporation . Q3 2025 results conference call . At this time , all lines are in listen only mode .

David Brown: Yes. David, D-A-V-I-D Brown.

Operator: Brown?

David Brown: Uh-huh, Brown.

Operator: All right. From AYA?

David Brown: Correct.

Speaker #3: Following the presentation , we will conduct a question and answer session . If at any time during this call , you require immediate assistance , please press star zero for the operator .

Operator: Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Pembina Pipeline Corporation Q3 2025 Results Conference Call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Friday, 7 November 2025. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Tucunel, VP of Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker #3: This call is being recorded on Friday , November 7th , 2025 . I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Tucunel VP of Capital Markets .

Speaker #3: Please go ahead .

Speaker #4: Thank you . Danny . Good morning everyone . Welcome to Pembina conference call and webcast to review highlights from the third quarter of 2025 .

Speaker #4: On the call today , we have Scott Burrows , president and CEO . And Cameron Goldade senior Vice President and Chief Financial officer , along with other members of Pamina's leadership team .

Speaker #4: I would like to remind you that some of the comments made today may be forward looking in nature and are based on current expectations , estimates , judgments , and projections .

Speaker #4: Forward looking statements . We may express or implied today are subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations .

Speaker #4: Further , some of the information provided refers to non-GAAP measures . To learn more about these forward looking statements and non-GAAP measures , please see the company's Management's Discussion and Analysis , dated November 6th , 2025 , for the period ended September 30th , 2025 , as well as the press release issued yesterday .

Speaker #4: All materials are available online at COVID-19 and on both Cd4+ and Edgar . I will now turn things over to Scott .

Speaker #5: Thanks , Dan . Yesterday we reported our third quarter results , which were highlighted by quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $1.034 billion . We remain on track to deliver full year results within our original 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range , and as Campbell discussed in more detail and as we are three quarters of the way through 2025 , we have updated and narrowed our guidance range to 4.25 billion to $4.35 billion .

Speaker #5: As we highlighted in the release yesterday , Pembina continues to execute its strategy , through which we strive to do two things . One , ensure the long term resilience of our business and two , provide investors with visibility to attractive growth through the end of the decade and beyond .

Speaker #5: The execution of Pembina's strategy is highlighted by a number of recent developments . First , earlier this week , we were pleased to sign a 20 year agreement with Petronas for 1 million tonnes per annum of Pembina's liquefaction capacity at the LNG facility .

Speaker #5: Petronas is a global LNG industry leader and one of the largest gas producers in Canada . We are very excited to expand our relationship with them and see this as an important development in Pembina's ongoing expansion of its export business .

Speaker #5: Pembina previously signed a 20 year take or pay liquefaction , tolling service agreement for 1.5 million tonnes per annum of LNG to support the final investment decision on Cedar .

Speaker #5: In June of 2020 for and ultimately maintain key project timing and economic parameters within the expectation of remarketing the capacity at a later stage .

Speaker #5: By remarketing our Cedar capacity . We are fulfilling Pembina's commitment to its financial guardrails and ensuring that the company's expansion into the LNG business is done within the risk profile of its existing business , characterized by its predominantly long term , highly contracted , fee based cash flow stream .

Speaker #5: We expect to reach definitive agreements for the remaining 0.5 million tonnes of our capacity by the end of 2025 . Meanwhile , the project itself remains on time and on budget .

Speaker #5: Construction of the floating LNG vessel , including the hull and topside facilities , remain on schedule , and Cedar LNG has significantly advanced the onshore construction work .

Speaker #5: Pipeline construction is ahead of schedule , including the completion of all horizontal directional drill crossings . This is a major achievement and derisk that portion of the project .

Speaker #5: Second , during the quarter , Pamina and its partner kinetochore had an exciting announcement on the advancement of the greenlight electricity Center , a proposed up to 1.8GW natural gas fired power generation project designed to advance Alberta's innovation economy .

Speaker #5: Recent achievements include securing a 907 megawatt power grid allocation , which was subsequently assigned to a potential customer . Greenlight to enable development of the customer's innovation .

Speaker #5: Infrastructure development . As early as 2027 . Prior to the start up of greenlight in 2030 . In addition , a recently signed agreement with a reputable equipment manufacturer provides certainty of availability and delivery .

Speaker #5: Timing of two turbines to support the approximately 900 megawatt first phase of Greenlight, Pembina in Connecticut, continues to progress towards a final investment decision in the first half of 2026.

Speaker #5: We see greenlight as an on strategy extension of Pembina's existing value chain and an opportunity to enhance growth by investing in long term contracted infrastructure with investment grade counterparties .

Speaker #5: While diversifying our customer base . Greenlight would create incremental demand for natural gas and associated liquids production within Western Canada , and we believe Pembina is well positioned to leverage the assets and capabilities of our current core business to further support the project and serve customer demand for gas egress and liquids handling and transportation .

Speaker #5: Most notably , the proximity of Pembina's Alliance pipeline offers a potential accretive expansion opportunity to supply natural gas to greenlight . Third , we continue to realize contracting successes that are strengthening the core business and our conventional pipeline business .

Speaker #5: We now have Recontracted substantially all volumes available for renewal under contracts with expiry dates in 2025 and 2026 . In addition to the previous updates , we have provided around various Recontracting successes , we recently signed new transportation agreements on the peace Pipeline system for the renewal and addition of volumes totaling approximately 50,000 barrels per day , with a weighted average term of approximately ten years .

Speaker #5: Approximately 80% of the volumes are currently being serviced today , and 20% are new volumes taking effect in 2026 . Within our transmission Business unit .

Speaker #5: Recent shipper elections on Alliance Pipeline have significantly strengthened its long term contractual profile , with shippers taking an average of a ten year toll option on approximately 96% of the 1.32 .

Speaker #5: Five BCF per day of firm capacity available . Fourth , we continue to deliver on our capital projects on time and on or under budget .

Speaker #5: In total, Pembina and Pembina Gas Infrastructure are nearing completion on approximately $850 million of projects that are expected to enter service throughout the first half of 2026.

Speaker #5: Our PFS for the new Fractionator within our Redwater complex has progressed to approximately 75% complete. It continues to trend under budget, and we have narrowed the expected in-service date to the second quarter of 2026.

Speaker #5: Pgis Wapiti expansion, which will increase natural gas processing capacity at the Wapiti plant, is trending on budget, and we have narrowed its in-service date to the first quarter of 2026. Additionally, Pgis Q3 cogeneration facility is now trending under budget, and we have narrowed its in-service date to the first quarter of 2026.

Speaker #5: Finally , we are progressing numerous accretive investment opportunities to meet growing demand for pipeline and transportation services . Pamina is well advanced on the development of approximately $1 billion of conventional pipeline projects to enable Wcsb growth and position Pamina to win new liquid transportation opportunities .

Speaker #5: These investments would be supported by a combination of long term take or pay agreements , a cost of service structure , and a land and facility dedications .

Speaker #5: Engineering activities are ongoing and subject to regulatory and board approval. Pembina expects to move forward with a Fox Creek to expansion of the pipeline system, a tailored Gardendale project, and a Birch to tailored northeast BC system expansion as well.

Speaker #5: We continue to observe continued growth from the Clearwater area and strong customer demand for incremental services on the pipeline . Following successfully recontracting over the last few years , Pamina expects it to be highly utilized in 2026 and is currently evaluating opportunities to increase egress capacity .

Speaker #5: Alliance pipeline previously solicited , non-binding expressions of interest for a new short haul point to . Point transportation service on the Canadian segment of its system in northwest Alberta .

Speaker #5: The proposed expansion would provide natural gas delivery to a new meter station in Fort Saskatchewan, for up to 350 million standard cubic feet per day of incremental capacity, with an anticipated in-service date in the fourth quarter of 2029.

Speaker #5: Based on the results , Alliance Pipeline is planning to launch a binding open season in the first quarter of 2026 for all interested parties .

Speaker #5: Pembina continues to differentiate itself as the only Canadian energy infrastructure company with an integrated value chain that provides a full suite of midstream and transportation services across all commodities .

Speaker #5: Natural gas , NGL , condensate , and crude oil . Our scope , scale and access to premium North American and global markets uniquely positions us to capture incremental new volumes while unlocking new avenues for growth .

Speaker #5: I will now turn things over to Cam to discuss in more detail the financial highlights of the third quarter .

Speaker #6: Thanks , Scott . Scott noted . Pembina reported third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.034 billion . This represents a 1% increase over the same period in the prior year in pipelines .

Speaker #6: Major factors impacting the quarter included higher demand on seasonal contracts on Alliance pipeline . Higher revenue on the Peace Pipeline system due to increased tolls , mainly related to contractual inflation adjustments , higher interruptible volumes on the pipeline system , higher contracted volumes on the pipeline , and lower firm tolls on the pipeline .

Speaker #6: Due to recontracting . In July 2024 and lower interruptible volumes due to narrower condensate price differentials , offset by higher contracted volumes in facilities .

Speaker #6: Factors impacting the quarter included a higher contribution from PGE, primarily related to transactions with Whitecap Resources, higher capital recoveries, and higher volumes at the DuVernay complex in marketing and new ventures.

Speaker #6: Third quarter results reflect the net impact of lower net revenue due to a decrease in NGL margins . As a result of lower NGL prices , coupled with higher input natural gas prices at Oxybol , higher NGL marketed volumes , including no similar impact of the nine day outage at Oxybol in 2024 and lower realized gains on crude oil based derivatives partially offset by lower realized losses on NGL based derivatives .

Speaker #6: Finally , in the corporate segment , third quarter results were higher than the prior period due to lower incentive costs driven by the change in share price in the period compared to the third quarter of 2024 .

Speaker #6: Earnings in the third quarter were $286 million . This represents a 26% decrease over the same period in the prior year . In addition to the factors impacting adjusted EBITDA , the decrease in earnings in the third quarter was primarily due to the net impact of the recognition of a gain on sale of the North segment of the Western Pipeline .

Speaker #6: Higher depreciation and amortization due to a decrease in the estimated useful life of an intangible asset , a share of loss in PGE due to an impairment on certain PGE assets and higher depreciation expense , partially offset by the recognition of a gain in net finance costs and lower losses on the interest rate .

Speaker #6: Derivative financial instruments and commodity related derivatives . And finally , lower share of loss from Cedar LNG , primarily due to the impact of hedging activities on the credit facility .

Speaker #6: Total volumes in the pipelines and facilities divisions were 3.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter. This represents an increase of 2% over the same period in the prior year, primarily driven by higher contracted volumes on pipelines and the Peace Pipeline system.

Speaker #6: Higher volumes at Redwater and Oxanabol due to no similar outages which occurred in the third quarter last year . Now turning back to the full year .

Speaker #6: As Scott mentioned , we tightened our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range to 4.25 to $4.35 billion , which reflects year to date results as well as the current commodity price outlook for the remainder of the year .

Speaker #6: I'll now turn things back to Scott .

Speaker #5: Thanks , cam . As we have summarized today , we have delivered solid quarterly and year to date results , both operationally and financially .

Speaker #5: We remain on track to deliver full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA within our original guidance range and look forward to providing our outlook for 2026 with the release of our guidance and capital budget update in mid-December .

Speaker #5: As we . Work successfully to close out 2025 and plan for 2026 . We cannot be more excited about what is ahead for Pembina and stakeholders .

Speaker #5: Developments within the Wcsb are providing tremendous opportunities to strengthen and grow our business . Thank you for joining us this morning . Please open up the line for questions .

Speaker #3: Thank you . Ladies and gentlemen , we will now begin the question and answer session . Should you have a question , please press the star key followed by the number one on your touchtone phone .

Speaker #3: You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised . Should you wish to decline from the polling process , please press the star key followed by the number two .

Speaker #3: If you are using a speaker phone , please lift the handset before pressing any keys . One moment please . While we assemble the queue .

Speaker #3: Your first question comes from Theresa Chen of Barclays . Please go ahead .

Speaker #7: Good . Thank you for taking my questions . Given your updated guidance , range and the mention of the current commodity outlook , can you share what you're seeing or hearing from your producer customers ?

Speaker #7: As far as the read through to your pricing outlook , as well as your volumetric expectations , not just for the remainder of this year , but also 2026 .

Speaker #8: Theresa . Jared , here . Yeah . Right now you know , obviously commodity prices are a little lower . You know , hovering around that $60 WTI .

Speaker #8: So what we're really doing right now is just meeting with all of our customers , really listening to what they their short term , you know , the latter half of year , the end of 25 and what they need for transportation services going into 26 .

Speaker #8: So we'll have a much more refined outlook with respect to 2026 when we do our our guidance and capital . Press release in December .

Speaker #8: But right now, we're just really in listening mode and going to really try to meet our customers' needs.

Speaker #5: And then maybe just adding on to that from a from a direct exposure . Obviously , you know , as we look forward , we're seeing propane prices lower than we saw last year .

Speaker #5: There is some weakness in propane . If you look at where inventory levels are coupled with a strengthening aeco price , which is obviously the opposite of that is good for our customers .

Speaker #5: But a high price does put pressure on our frac spreads . So we are seeing , you know , a little weakness compared to , say , last year in our in our outlook for frac spreads for for Q4 , just given those dynamics .

Speaker #7: Thank you . And in relation to green light and your partnership with Kinetochore , what are the next steps from here ? And if Alliance were to be a source of supply for gas , what kind of uplift would you expect ?

Speaker #9: Hey , Theresa . Chris Sherman , thanks for the question . You know , as we as we shared in October , we're continuing towards a first half , 20 , 26 , 50 schedule .

Speaker #9: We're really continuing our commercial discussions with our customer , continuing our feed work to get our engineering in line in hopes of of that first half next year .

Speaker #9: FID as far as uplift associated with the pipe , I mean , they really are two two separate projects , but we think each can stand alone on its own , on its own two feet .

Speaker #9: And really support solid economics .

Speaker #7: Thank you .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Jeremy Tonet of J.P. Morgan . Please go ahead .

Speaker #10: Hi . Good morning .

Speaker #5: Morning .

Speaker #11: Hi. Thanks for all the color today. I want to go to Project Greenlight a little bit more. I believe last quarter there was talk about the potential for 2029 entering service, and I just wanted to see, I guess, the latest thoughts on how you see this unfolding.

Speaker #11: You know , with all the , you know , unfolding of the interconnection queue , seems like there might be some concern in the market .

Speaker #11: So just wondering if you could provide a little bit more color there .

Dan Tucunel: Thank you, Danny. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Pembina's Conference Call and Webcast to review highlights from the Q3 2025. On the call today, we have Scott Burrows, President and CEO, and Cameron Goldade, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, along with other members of Pembina's leadership team. I would like to remind you that some of the comments made today may be forward-looking in nature and are based on Pembina's current expectations, estimates, judgments, and projections. Forward-looking statements we may express or imply today are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Some of the information provided refers to non-GAAP measures.

Speaker #9: Sure . Again , it's it's Chris . So you know , I think there has been a maybe a little bit of confusion .

Speaker #9: That's , that's entered the market . Right . And I think it's it's worth taking a second to maybe separate the two projects .

Speaker #9: And clarify what's happening there . Our customer is progressing . Their innovation center , and that's really , you know , where the grid connections rest and the associated .

Speaker #9: Arrangements . I know there have been some disclosure that that referenced 2030 . Our understanding is that's really an outside date and they're still pushing towards as early as 2027 for that .

Speaker #9: That first phase , the Innovation Center and the associated grid connections are really our customers projects . And since we assigned or sold our land and secured those mega are allocated those those megawatts to our customer , that's really between them and the Aso .

Dan Tucunel: To learn more about these forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures, please see the company's management's discussion and analysis dated 6 November 2025, for the period ended 30 September 2025, as well as the press release Pembina issued yesterday. All materials are available online at pembina.com and on both SEDAR+ and EDGAR. I will now turn things over to Scott.

Speaker #9: But as far as our project , the related project , we're progressing our 1800 megawatt , you know , gas fired power generation facility , the first phase of of 900MW is , as you referenced , planned for 2030 .

Scott Burrows: Thanks, Dan. Yesterday, we reported our Q3 results, which were highlighted by quarterly adjusted EBITDA of CAD 1.034 billion. Pembina remains on track to deliver full year results within our original 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range. As Cam will discuss in more detail, and as we are three quarters of the way through 2025, we have updated and narrowed our guidance range to CAD 4.25 billion to 4.35 billion. As we highlighted in the release yesterday, Pembina continues to execute its strategy through which we strive to do two things. One, ensure the long-term resilience of our business and two, provide investors with visibility to attractive growth through the end of the decade and beyond. The execution of Pembina's strategy is highlighted by a number of recent developments.

Speaker #9: And all that remains on track .

Speaker #11: Got it . That's very helpful . Thank you for that . And just want to touch on the guidance tightening a little bit .

Speaker #11: It seems like the midpoint moved down just a little bit there . I was wondering if you could dive in a little bit more on the drivers there .

Speaker #11: And just you know , what trends you see coming out of 25 into 26 and how we should think about that .

Speaker #6: Hey , Jeremy , it's Kam here . No problem . The first thing I'll mention , and obviously to step back for a second is , I think one of the things we we anchor on is a very stable and resilient business .

Speaker #6: And I would say , you know , notwithstanding a ton of variability in the market over the course of 2025 , you know , we remain squarely in the heart of our original guidance range from a year ago and continue to be .

Scott Burrows: First, earlier this week, we were pleased to sign a 20-year agreement with Petronas for 1 million tons per annum of Pembina's liquefaction capacity at the Cedar LNG facility. Petronas is a global LNG industry leader and one of the largest gas producers in Canada. We are very excited to expand our relationship with them and see this as an important development in Pembina's ongoing expansion of its export business. Pembina previously signed a 20-year take-or-pay liquefaction tolling service agreement for 1.5 million tons per annum of LNG to support the final investment decision on Cedar in June 2024, ultimately maintain key project timing and economic parameters within the expectation of remarketing the capacity at a later stage.

Speaker #6: Anchored on that in a material sense for for the year when we when we looked at our , our outlook back in August for the balance of the year , you know , I would say that , you know , based on where we were at that point , we we likely expected , you know , some option value to come in in the second half of the year .

Speaker #6: And particularly the fourth quarter through through the marketing business . You know , we we probably expected a little bit more than we've now expected .

Speaker #6: We've seen . So , you know , on the margin we've we've tightened that guidance range a little bit . Obviously to just to give the market a bit of direction in terms of what we're seeing , you know , at the same time , what I would say is that , you know , while it's early , the results in the core business outside of marketing are continuing to trend strong .

Scott Burrows: By remarketing our Cedar capacity, we are fulfilling Pembina's commitment to its financial guardrails and ensuring that the company's expansion into the LNG business is done within the risk profile of its existing business, characterized by its predominantly long-term, highly contracted, fee-based cash flow stream. We expect to reach definitive agreements for the remaining 0.5 million tons of our capacity by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the project itself remains on time and on budget. Construction of the floating LNG vessel, including the hull and topside facilities, remain on schedule, and Cedar LNG has significantly advanced the onshore construction work. Pipeline construction is ahead of schedule, including the completion of all horizontal directional drill crossings. This is a major achievement and de-risks that portion of the project.

Speaker #6: I would say that , you know , from what we're seeing in terms of early results from our October volumes , you know , they continue to be , you know , at or exceeding plan .

Speaker #6: So we're seeing a lot of constructive signs outside of the marketing business . At the end of the day , you know , we saw a little bit a little less optionality in that commodity business .

Speaker #6: So we we tighten it up a bit . But materially , you know , we don't see a lot changing in our business .

Speaker #6: .

Speaker #11: Very helpful . I'll leave it there . Thank you .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Somya Jain of UBS . Please go ahead .

Scott Burrows: Second, during the quarter, Pembina and its partner, Kineticor, had an exciting announcement on the advancement of the Greenlight Electricity Centre, a proposed up to 1.8 GW natural gas-fired power generation project designed to advance Alberta's innovation economy. Recent achievements include securing a 907 MW power grid allocation, which was subsequently assigned to a potential customer of Greenlight to enable development of the customer's innovation infrastructure development as early as 2027 prior to the startup of Greenlight in 2030. In addition, a recently signed agreement with a reputable equipment manufacturer provides certainty of availability and delivery timing of 2 turbines to support the approximately 900 MW first phase of Greenlight. Pembina and Kineticor continue to progress towards a final investment decision in H1 2026.

Speaker #12: Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Could you provide more color on the brownfield opportunities you were looking at in the sour gas space?

Speaker #12: How is sour gas infrastructure currently positioned in the basin , and how would Pamina benefit from it ?

Speaker #8: Good morning , Sonya Jarret . Great question . So yeah , as you know , as the demand for condensate as , as oil sands production grows , as oil egress pipelines get bottlenecked out of of western Canada , more and more condensate is going to be required .

Speaker #8: And a lot of that condensate is coming from the montney , which does have associated sour gas with it . PGI through our facility , our Q3 facility , Kalka River .

Scott Burrows: We see Greenlight as an on-strategy extension of Pembina's existing value chain and an opportunity to enhance growth by investing in long-term contracted infrastructure with investment-grade counterparties while diversifying our customer base. Greenlight would create incremental demand for natural gas and associated liquids production within Western Canada, and we believe Pembina is well-positioned to leverage the assets and capabilities of our current core business to further support the project and serve customer demand for gas egress and liquids handling and transportation. Most notably, the proximity of Pembina's Alliance Pipeline offers a potential accretive expansion opportunity to supply natural gas to Greenlight. Third, we continue to realize contracting successes that are strengthening the core business. In our conventional pipeline business, we now have recontracted substantially all volumes available for renewal under contracts with expiry dates in 2025 and 2026.

Speaker #8: I'm probably leaving a couple off the list , but we have an extensive network of sour gas processing , sulfur recovery and also acid gas injection .

Speaker #8: Pembina has successfully . We're the only entity who's actually built a sulfur recovery unit here in the last , you know , about 25 years .

Speaker #8: And we did that on time and on budget . So I think our project execution , our understanding of operations in that space and the the platform and the footprint that PGI offers , I think we're in a really good spot to enhance the customers needs .

Speaker #8: And continue to allow them to grow that sour gas production in face of condensate demand .

Speaker #12: Okay , great . Thank you . And then on the regulatory side , what progress are you seeing at the federal or provincial level ?

Speaker #12: And are there any policies or changes that will especially impact Tamina in the near term ?

Scott Burrows: In addition to the previous updates we have provided around various recontracting successes, we recently signed new transportation agreements on the Peace Pipeline System for the renewal and addition of volumes totaling approximately 50,000 bpd with a weighted average term of approximately 10 years. Approximately 80% of the volumes are currently being serviced today, and 20% are new volumes taking effect in 2026. Within our transmission business unit, recent shipper elections on Alliance Pipeline have significantly strengthened its long-term contractual profile, with shippers taking an average of a 10-year toll option on approximately 96% of the 1.325 BCF per day of firm capacity available. Fourth, we continue to deliver on our capital projects on time and on or under budget.

Speaker #5: Yeah , I think overall we're definitely seeing a constructive tone from the federal government . You know , we like what we're seeing .

Speaker #5: We're seeing it . You know , I think on the ground in terms of our interactions as well , you know , I think it's a little too early to comment on what , you know , new projects may or may not come out of that , but certainly a constructive and supportive tone from the federal government .

Speaker #12: Okay , great . Thank you for the color .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Erin MacNeil of TD Cowan . Please go ahead .

Speaker #13: Hey . Morning , all . Thanks for taking my questions . It's it's great to see Pembina continue to announce contract renewals on conventional pipe .

Scott Burrows: In total, Pembina and Pembina Gas Infrastructure are nearing completion on approximately CAD 850 million of projects that are expected to enter service throughout H1 2026. RFS IV, the new fractionator within our Redwater Complex, has progressed to approximately 75% complete. It continues to trend under budget, and we have narrowed the expected in-service date to Q2 2026. PGI's Wapiti expansion, which will increase natural gas processing capacity at the Wapiti plant, is trending on budget, and we have narrowed its in-service date to Q1 2026. PGI's K3 cogeneration facility is now trending under budget, and we have narrowed its in-service date to Q1 2026. Finally, we are progressing numerous accretive investment opportunities to meet growing demand for pipeline and transportation services.

Speaker #13: The question we always get is on pricing . I can appreciate that you're not going to get into specifics here . But given the emergence of a competitive alternative , how should we think about renewal pricing and your ability to maintain current margins on a per barrel basis .

Speaker #13: ?

Speaker #8: Erin . Yeah , thanks for the question . So , yeah , our most recent announcement of the 50,000 barrels of recontracting is a tremendous outcome for Pembina and why I want to say that is 100% of those volumes are within the competitive alternative transport area .

Speaker #8: 20% of those volumes flow to the alternative . Today . And upon reconnection , they will be once that project is complete , they'll be flowing on the system and essentially all of the volumes I can tell you maintained current , contracted toll .

Scott Burrows: Pembina is well advanced on the development of approximately CAD 1 billion of conventional pipeline projects to enable WCSB growth and position Pembina to win new liquid transportation opportunities. These investments would be supported by a combination of long-term take-or-pay agreements, a cost of service structure, and the land and facility dedications. Engineering activities are ongoing and subject to regulatory and board approval. Pembina expects to move forward with a Fox Creek to Nameo expansion of the Peace Pipeline System, a Taylor to Gordondale project, and a Birch to Taylor Northeast BC system expansion. As well, we continue to observe continued growth from the Clearwater area and strong customer demand for incremental services on the Nipisi Pipeline. Following successfully recontracting Nipisi over the last few years, Pembina expects it to be highly utilized in 2026 and is currently evaluating opportunities to increase egress capacity.

Speaker #8: There's obviously a lot of things that go into a transportation agreement . A lot of different things are important to our customers . Tolls , obviously , one of them , but there are other factors that that go into that negotiation .

Speaker #8: And in this particular instance, we were able to maintain that. Obviously, in some areas at certain receipt points, we will discount our tolls.

Speaker #8: If it's if it's prudent to do so . But those are very calculated decisions that we make . I would point out that I know we don't externally show this information , but since the since the inception of the alternative pipeline , the EBITDA per barrel of our conventional business actually has been been increasing .

Speaker #8: And the factors that go into that , there's a few of them that I wanted to outline for you . The first one is we've been extremely focused on lowering our cost structure , you know , providing safe , reliable , cost efficient operations through our supply chain strategies and through our continuous improvement and our operational excellence journey that we've been on here internally at Pembina .

Scott Burrows: Alliance Pipeline previously solicited non-binding expressions of interest for a new short-haul point-to-point transportation service on the Canadian segment of its system in Northwest Alberta. The proposed expansion would provide natural gas delivery to a new meter station in Fort Saskatchewan for up to 350 million standard cubic feet per day of incremental capacity with an anticipated in-service date in Q4 2029. Based on the results, Alliance Pipeline is planning to launch a binding open season in Q1 2026 for all interested parties. Pembina continues to differentiate itself as the only Canadian energy infrastructure company with an integrated value chain that provides a full suite of midstream and transportation services across all commodities, natural gas, NGL, condensate, and crude oil.

Speaker #8: Additionally , as we move west a further away from Edmonton Market , obviously that garners a higher toll just due to the proximity and the distance into into the market .

Speaker #8: And then thirdly , the majority of all of our contracts on the pipe side have CPI inflators built into them . So and then finally , what I would leave you with on how we maintain margin is our industry leading project execution and our ability .

Speaker #8: And I said it earlier , safe , reliable , cost efficient operations continue to be a competitive advantage . We basically can allow our commercial teams to go out there , maintain the internal expectations of other teams , are bringing our projects on time and under budget , and that really allows them to to have some flexibility with the customers to meet their needs , but also maintain our margin and our internal financial expectations .

Scott Burrows: Our scope, scale, and access to premium North American and global markets uniquely positions us to capture incremental new volumes while unlocking new avenues for growth. I will now turn things over to Cam to discuss in more detail the financial highlights of Q3.

Cameron Goldade: Thanks, Scott. As Scott noted, Pembina reported Q3 adjusted EBITDA of CAD 1.034 billion. This represents a 1% increase over the same period in the prior year. In pipelines, major factors impacting the quarter included higher demand on seasonal contracts on Alliance Pipeline, higher revenue on the Peace Pipeline System due to increased tolls mainly related to contractual inflation adjustments, higher interruptible volumes on the Peace Pipeline System, higher contracted volumes on the Nipisi Pipeline, and lower firm tolls on the Goshen Pipeline due to recontracting in July 2024 and lower interruptible volumes due to narrower condensate price differentials offset by higher contracted volumes. In facilities, factors impacting the quarter included higher contribution from PGI, primarily related to transactions with Whitecap Resources, higher capital recoveries and higher volumes at the Duvernay Complex.

Speaker #8: Hopefully that answers your question .

Speaker #13: Yeah , there's more detail than I expected . So so thank you for that . For my follow up , I gotta ask on on PGI .

Speaker #13: You know , you've previously talked about the benefits and the capital efficiency of owning 60% , but 100% would also likely have benefits such as , you know , perfect alignment on incremental capital , just given that , you know , you'd have like KKR doesn't have the downstream benefits that you do .

Speaker #13: So again , just to sort of get you on the record one way or another , can you speak to your potential appetite to want to consolidate that remaining 40% ?

Speaker #5: Yeah , I think as a as a general concept , we generally don't comment on specific M&A situations . But what I can what I will say in this specific situation is the fact that , you know , we still like the partnership .

Cameron Goldade: In marketing and new ventures, third quarter results reflect the net impact of lower net revenue due to a decrease in NGL margins as a result of lower NGL prices, coupled with higher input natural gas prices at Aux Sable, higher NGL marketed volumes, including no similar impact of the 9-day outage at Aux Sable in 2024, and lower realized gains on crude oil-based derivatives, partially offset by lower realized losses on NGL-based derivatives. Finally, in the Corporate Segment, third quarter results were higher than the prior period due to lower incentive costs driven by the change in Pembina's share price in the period compared to the third quarter of 2024. Earnings in the third quarter were CAD 286 million. This represents a 26% decrease over the same period in the prior year.

Speaker #5: We like how it was set up , and we believe it's delivering what it was originally intended to do . So we're happy with it .

Speaker #13: That's great. Thank you so much. I'll turn it back.

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Spiro Dounis of Citigroup . Please go ahead .

Speaker #14: Thanks . Operator . Good morning , team . I wanted to go back to the outlook quickly . So you've got the alliance process out of the way .

Speaker #14: You've now got some Q3 contracting done . So addressed a lot of maybe the larger unknowns heading into 2026 . At the same time , you got some tailwinds coming from M&A headwinds from commodity .

Speaker #14: So just curious in the context of that original fee based EBITDA you provided back in 2024 for 2026 , how do you think a lot of these moving , moving items and factors play into that original range ?

Cameron Goldade: In addition to the factors impacting adjusted EBITDA, the decrease in earnings in Q3 was primarily due to the net impact of the recognition of a gain on sale of the north segment of the Western Pipeline, higher depreciation and amortization due to a decrease in the estimated useful life of an intangible asset, a share of loss in PGI due to an impairment on certain PGI assets and higher depreciation expense, partially offset by the recognition of a gain in net finance costs and lower losses on the interest rate financial derivative financial instruments and commodity-related derivatives. Finally, lower share of loss from Cedar LNG, primarily due to the impact of hedging activities on the credit facility. Total volumes in the Pipelines and Facilities divisions were 3.6 million BOE per day in Q3.

Speaker #6: Thanks for the question . And it's a really good one because I think that's one of the things we're most proud about . You know , as we set out about a year and a half ago and put that guidance range out in our 2024 Investor Day , you know , we have had a lot of confidence in that range .

Speaker #6: And frankly , a lot of confidence in in being in the upper end of that range continue to execute along the same ways that Jared just talked about , you know , through the through the core base business , through the commercialization , as well as some really , really accretive and attractive , you know , sort of bolt on M&A opportunities across our business .

Speaker #6: And obviously , you know , what we've seen is , is on one hand , a couple a couple headwinds , you know , primarily related to the revised Alliance CR settlement .

Cameron Goldade: This represents an increase of 2% over the same period in the prior year, primarily driven by higher contracted volumes on the Nipisi Pipeline and the Peace Pipeline System, higher volumes at Redwater and Aux Sable due to no similar outages which occurred in Q3 last year. Turning back to the full year. As Scott mentioned, we tightened our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range to CAD 4.25 to 4.35 billion, which reflects year-to-date results as well as the current commodity price outlook for the remainder of the year. I'll now turn things back to Scott.

Speaker #6: But what we've also done , as Jared mentioned , is , is really taken a keen eye to our business . And looked for opportunities to operate differently , to operate more efficiently , to focus on work that is higher value , add versus lower value add .

Speaker #6: And I would say that , you know , without sort of getting ahead of our 2026 guidance outlook , which will come in about a month's time , I would say we maintain a lot of confidence in obviously achieving that range .

Speaker #6: And achieving a range or a spot in that range which would , you know , reflect something consistent with our own expectations and and the market's expectations .

Scott Burrows: Thanks, Cam. As we have summarized today, we have delivered solid quarterly and year-to-date results, both operationally and financially. We remain on track to deliver full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA within our original guidance range and look forward to providing our outlook for 2026 with the release of our guidance and capital budget update in mid-December. As we work successfully to close out 2025 and plan for 2026, we cannot be more excited of what is ahead for Pembina and its stakeholders. Developments within the WCSB are providing tremendous opportunities to strengthen and grow our business. Thank you for joining us this morning. Please open up the line for questions.

Speaker #6: So we feel really good about that . We're working really hard on that . And I think again , you know we continue to tout the resilience of our business in many ways .

Speaker #6: And the the benefits of the diversity of it , the exposure to multiple commodities , the place that we play in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin .

Speaker #6: And we think that performance , you know , even in light of headwinds , which they come in business . Demonstrates that . .

Speaker #14: Got it. A couple color cams. The second one is coming back to a green light as well. Could you maybe just put a finer point on when we can expect to start to see cash flows from this project to Pembina?

Operator: Thank you. Your first question comes from Theresa Chen of Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker #14: And when it comes to the phases , I think this initial phase is about half that total capacity envisioned . But I know I think you guys had mentioned for potential phases in total , just maybe remind us again how you're thinking about the remaining phase scope .

Speaker #14: And then the timeline .

Speaker #5: Yeah . So so the original phase phasing was four phases of 450 . We are now talking about two phases of roughly 900 .

David Brown: Morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Given your updated guidance range and the mention of the current commodity outlook, can you share what you're seeing or hearing from your producer customers, as far as the read-through to your pricing outlook as well as your volumetric expectations, not just for the remainder of this year, but also 2026?

Speaker #5: So again , we've gone from kind of a first phase of 450 to a first phase of 900 . If that makes sense .

Speaker #5: We would expect , based on our current timeline and current estimations , that cash flow would occur in 2030 .

Speaker #14: Perfect . I'll leave it there . Thank you . Team .

Jaret Sprott: Morning, Theresa. Jaret here. Right now, you know, obviously, commodity prices are a little lower, you know, hovering around that CAD 60 WTI. What we're really doing right now is just meeting with all of our customers, really listening to what they, their short term, you know, the H2, the end of 2025 and what they need for transportation services going into 2026. We'll have a much more refined outlook with respect to 2026 when we do our guidance and capital press release in December. Right now we're just really in listening mode and gonna really try to meet our customers' needs.

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from AJ O'Donnell of TF . Please go ahead .

Speaker #6: Hey , good morning everyone .

Speaker #15: Maybe if I could just sneak one more in about green light . You know , as the data center innovation center conversations continue to pick up momentum .

Speaker #15: I'm curious , is there a way to bridge the gap further ? Have you guys explored potential like mobile or module power solutions ?

Speaker #15: Is that is that something that you guys have looked at before ?

Speaker #9: AJ thanks . Thanks for the question . I mean , we've looked at a variety of of different modes and means to to facilitate this , this business .

Cameron Goldade: Maybe just adding on to that from a direct Pembina exposure. Obviously, you know, as we look forward, we're seeing propane prices lower than we saw last year. There is some weakness in propane if you look at where inventory levels are, coupled with a strengthening AECO price, which is, obviously, the opposite of that is good for our customers, but a high price does put pressure on our frac spread. We are seeing, you know, a little weakness compared to, say, last year in our outlook for frac spreads for Q4, just given those dynamics.

Speaker #9: You know , I think from our perspective , what we have in place , the type of facilities and structure we have in place today is scalable and really , really effective for for what our customers are looking for .

Speaker #9: And so that's really what we stay focused on .

Speaker #6: AJ it's cam here . I would just add on top of that , I think our experience has been when we've looked at , you know , other developments as this occurs , you know , once you get the base , the core assets in place , they do tend to cluster .

David Brown: Thank you. In relation to Greenlight and your partnership with Kineticor, what are the next steps from here? If Alliance were to be a source of supply for gas, what kind of uplift would you expect?

Speaker #6: And obviously as we think about the advantages that that our solution has for this , obviously proximity access to utilities , access to water , all of the embedded advantages , you know , we do see benefits and we do see that that being an advantage in our offering for the future .

Chris Scherman: Hey, Theresa, Chris Scherman. Thanks for the question. You know, as we shared in October, we're continuing towards the H1 2026 FID schedule. We're really continuing our commercial discussions with our customer, continuing our FEED work to get our engineering in line in hopes of that H1 next year FID. As far as uplift associated with the pipe, I mean, they really are two separate projects. We think each can stand alone on its own on its own two feet and really support solid economics.

Speaker #6: So we think there's opportunity beyond this .

Speaker #15: Okay . Great . Appreciate the detail there . And then maybe if I could just go to Cedar real quick , you know , there was a amendment filed for the increase of fee gas capacity from 400 to 500 MCF .

Speaker #15: Curious what the read through are there . If you could speak to some of the details and potentially , does that equate to , you know , more volumes or more marketing upside for Pembina ?

David Brown: Thank you.

Speaker #16: AJ it's Stu Taylor . I'll maybe try to provide some clarity . So when we originally were scoping out the project and looking at the size , we we did permit the project for three Mtpa 400,000,000 cubic feet per day .

Operator: Your next question comes from Jeremy Tonet of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Jeremy Tonet: Hi, good morning.

Chris Scherman: Morning.

Speaker #16: As we were going through engineering design , we seen an opportunity to for very minor dollars , increase that capacity from three Mtpa to 3.3 .

Jeremy Tonet: Hi, thanks for all the color today. Wanted to go to Project Greenlight a little bit more. I believe last quarter there was talk about potential for 2029 entering service. Just wanted to see, I guess, latest thoughts on how you see this unfolding, you know, with all the, you know, unfolding of the interconnection queue. Seems like there might be some concern in the market, so just wondering if you could provide a little bit more color there.

Speaker #16: And so we undertook that that spend and and our current we are currently designing and building to the 3.3 and our announced capital actually incorporates that size .

Speaker #16: We knew we would have to go back from an amendment to the permits , and so we did that . And again , there's no change to the scope of the project or any of the capital cost estimates .

Chris Scherman: Sure. Again, it's Chris. You know, I think there has been a maybe a little bit of confusion that's entered the market, right? I think it's worth taking a second to maybe separate the two projects and clarify what's happening there. Our customer is progressing their innovation center, and that's really, you know, where the grid connections rest and the associated DTS arrangements. I know there'd been some disclosure that referenced 2030. Our understanding is that's really an outside date, and they're still pushing towards as early as 2027 for that first phase. The innovation center and the associated grid connections are really our customer's projects.

Speaker #16: Again , as you go through these projects and you continue to work with engineering , we've seen again , engineers don't design right to the exact capacity they do add fat in their facilities and infrastructure .

Speaker #16: And so we've looked at since we were going for the amendment , we believe the facility has the opportunity for on on , you know , on days , particularly cold weather days , there will be an opportunity for incremental throughput through the facility .

Speaker #16: And so as we were looking to do the amendment , we did increase that that size of the the amendment and increased it from 400 to 500 .

Speaker #16: Obviously , we need incremental gas supply . These are potential volumes . As we go forward , we will be working on that on a go forward basis .

Chris Scherman: Since we assigned or sold our land, and secured those, allocated those megawatts to our customer, that's really between them and the AESO. As far as our project, the related project, we're progressing our 1,800 megawatt, you know, gas-fired power generation facility. The first phase of 900 megawatts is, as you referenced, planned for 2030. All of that remains on track.

Speaker #16: And pardon me , these will be incremental cargoes . I'm sorry . Beyond what we have contracted . We have only contracted the facility to the three Mtpa size .

Speaker #16: So any incremental gas or incremental cargoes are upside for us .

Speaker #15: That's super clear . I appreciate the detail . Thank you .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Maurice Choi of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Jeremy Tonet: Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you for that. Just want to touch on the guidance tightening a little bit. Seems like the midpoint moved down just a little bit there. I was wondering if you could dive in a little bit more on the drivers there and just, you know, what trends you see coming out of 2025 into 2026, and how we should think about that.

Speaker #17: Thanks and good morning . If I could just start with a question about project execution . When I think about how globally resources are being directed towards supporting the AI sector , and this could obviously lead to inflationary pressures globally in the coming years .

Cameron Goldade: Yeah. Hey, Jeremy Tonet, it's Cam here. No problem. The first thing I'll mention and obviously to step back for a second is I think one of the things we anchor on is a very stable and resilient business. I would say, you know, notwithstanding a ton of variability in the market over the course of 2025, you know, we remain squarely in the heart of our original guidance range from a year ago and continue to be anchored on that in a material sense for the year.

Speaker #17: I know that you've highlighted your project execution track record and capabilities . So just wondering what you tend to do in these early years before those pressures arrive , what actions do you tend to take to to kind of get ahead of the curve ?

Speaker #8: Morning , Maurice . Yeah . So I think the question was really about , you know , future pressures in , you know , certain areas .

Speaker #8: And , you know , one of the things that that we're really focused on in our and we're really aligned with our board and they ask us about is , is creating long lasting partnerships with , with tier one contractors and and obviously indigenous communities .

Cameron Goldade: When we looked at our outlook back in August for the balance of the year, you know, I would say that, you know, based on where we were at that point, we likely expected, you know, some option value to come in H2, and particularly Q4, through the marketing business. You know, we probably expected a little bit more than we've now expected we've seen. On the margin, you know, we've tightened that guidance range a little bit, obviously to give the market a bit of direction in terms of what we're seeing.

Speaker #8: So I think that's that's part of our overall strategy is using , you know , not always going for lowest dollar . But but committing ourselves to , you know , the safest , making sure that we have the A teams we're aligned from the top with respect to our safety messaging and our project execution .

Speaker #8: And the services that we'll be providing . So I think we've we've made material ground with respect to that . I think internally here , I've talked about it before .

Cameron Goldade: You know, at the same time, what I would say is that, you know, while it's early, the results in the core business outside of marketing are continuing to trend strong. I would say that, you know, from what we're seeing in terms of early results from our October volumes, you know, they continue to be, you know, at or exceeding plan. We're seeing a lot of constructive signs outside of the marketing business. At the end of the day, you know, we saw a little bit little less optionality in that commodity business, so we tightened it up a bit. Materially, you know, we don't see a lot changing in our business.

Speaker #8: I think we just have a culture of one team , one pamonha when we're when we're approaching these projects . And I think it's it's something that we've been cultivating and , and we're really good at .

Speaker #17: Thank you . And if I could finish off the question , on balance sheet in general , again , just , just want to know philosophically what what is the comfortable or optimized cushion for you versus the 4.25 maximum debt to EBITDA .

Speaker #17: And where do you see that being by year-end and peaking next year due to the LNG CapEx?

Jeremy Tonet: Very helpful. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from Saumya Jain of UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker #6: Hey , Maurice , it's Cam here . Yeah , I think good question . Because we've talked about that . And obviously first thing worth reminding everyone is that is a proportionally consolidated number .

Saumya Jain: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Could you provide more color on the brownfield opportunities you are looking at in the sour gas space? How is sour gas infrastructure currently positioned in the basin, and how would Pembina benefit from it?

Speaker #6: So that reflects not only the debt that we carry at the Pembina level , but debt that that is included in the PGI credit stack , notwithstanding the fact that it's recourse as well as at the moment , construction debt associated with Cedar LNG , which is obviously , again , non recourse .

Chris Scherman: Good morning, Saumya Jain. Jaret Sprott. Great question. As you know, as the demand for condensate, as oil sands production grows, as oil egress pipelines get debottlenecked out of Western Canada, more and more condensate is gonna be required. A lot of that condensate is coming from the Montney, which does have associated sour gas with it. Pembina Gas Infrastructure, through our Hythe facility, our K3 facility, Kakwa River, I'm probably leaving a couple off the list, but we have an extensive network of sour gas processing, sulfur recovery, and also acid gas injection.

Speaker #6: But but carried at that level . So as we see exiting exiting 2025 , obviously we see that in the in the sort of the mid threes range because of the timing and really remember that 2026 is the peak investment year for Cedar LNG , obviously without any of the commensurate earnings along with it .

Speaker #6: So if we go back and remind ourselves of our message from our 2024 Investor Day , you know , we obviously talked about that three year outlook for capital being largely free cash flow neutral with , you know , some some shape to it throughout those three years .

Jaret Sprott: Pembina has successfully, we're the only entity who's actually built a sulfur recovery unit here in the last about 25 years, and we did that on time and on budget. I think our project execution, our understanding of operations in that space and the platform and the footprint that PGI offers, I think we're in a really good spot to enhance the customer's needs and continue to allow them to grow that sour gas production in face of condensate demand.

Speaker #6: And this would be consistent . We obviously are expecting free cash flow positivity in 2025 . We saw free cash flow positivity in 2024 .

Speaker #6: And we would expect to see , you know , some free cash flow negativity in 2026 . However , you know , on the on the long term , we feel obviously that we set our balance sheet up to be able to handle that .

Saumya Jain: Okay, great. Thank you. Then on the regulatory side, what progress are you seeing at the federal or provincial level? Are there any policies or changes that will especially impact Pembina in the near term?

Speaker #6: And obviously as we move through 2026 , we would expect that to moderate back down to the type of range that we've been comfortable with longer term .

Scott Burrows: Yeah, I think overall we're definitely seeing a constructive tone from the federal government. You know, we like what we're seeing. We're seeing it, you know, I think on the ground in terms of our interactions as well. You know, I think it's a little too early to comment on what, you know, new projects may or may not come out of that, but certainly a constructive and supportive tone from the federal government.

Speaker #6: You know , ultimately , you know , that comfort zone is largely three and a half to four times , you know , could we could we go above that .

Speaker #6: You know , it's not where we would intend to go in the near term . So , you know that that's that's the way we think about the balance sheet at the moment .

Speaker #17: That's great . Thank you .

Saumya Jain: Okay, great. Thank you for the color.

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Robert Catellier from CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Operator: Your next question comes from Aaron MacNeil of TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker #18: Rob Catellier from CIBC. There's a lot to talk about, given all your contracting this quarter. Maybe I can start with the mechanics of the synthetic liquefaction agreement with Petronas.

Aaron MacNeil: Hey, morning all. Thanks for taking my questions. It's great to see Pembina continue to announce contract renewals on conventional pipe. The question we always get is on pricing. I can appreciate that you're not gonna get into specifics here, but given the emergence of a competitive alternative, how should we think about renewal pricing and your ability to maintain current margins on a per barrel basis?

Speaker #18: Maybe you can walk us through that . And the circumstances you need to see to generate that incremental value enhancement .

Speaker #5: Yeah , I'll talk . I'll talk about the contract in general , and then I'll turn it over to Chris to provide some further details .

Speaker #5: You know , I think as you can appreciate , we're still finalizing the other point 5 million tons . And so , you know , given the status of that , you know , we're going to stay away from specific details .

Jaret Sprott: Morning, Aaron. Thanks for the question. Our most recent announcement of the 50,000 barrels of recontracting is a tremendous outcome for Pembina. Why I wanna say that is 100% of those volumes are within the competitive alternative transport area. 20% of those volumes flow to the alternative today, and upon reconnection, once that project is complete, they'll be flowing on the Peace system. Essentially all of the volumes I can tell you, maintained current contracted toll. There's obviously a lot of things that go into a transportation agreement. A lot of different things are important to our customers. Toll's obviously one of them, but there are other factors that go into that negotiation and in this particular instance, we were able to maintain that.

Speaker #5: But what I can tell you is that we were very pleased with with the outcome of , of that negotiation and maybe Chris , I'll turn it over to you to talk about the contract .

Speaker #5: .

Speaker #9: And then as far as contract structure , it's effectively synthetic tolling . I mean , we are we are taking the obligations we have with Cedar and almost entirely passing those on to our customer .

Speaker #9: And then in addition to , to passing the the terms on , we've been able to capture some participation in the upside of the market .

Speaker #9: So to the extent the the ARB is , is open and attractive between Canadian gas and the Far East , we'll have an opportunity to capture some of that upside and participate in that .

Jaret Sprott: Obviously, in some areas, at certain receipt points, we will discount our tolls if it's prudent to do so, but those are very calculated decisions that we make. I would point out that I know we don't externally show this information, but since the inception of the alternative pipeline, the EBITDA per barrel of our conventional business actually has been increasing. The factors that go into that, there's a few of them that I wanted to outline for you. The first one is we've been extremely focused on lowering our cost structure, you know, providing safe, reliable, cost-efficient operations through our supply chain strategies and through our continuous improvement and our operational excellence journey that we've been on here internally at Pembina.

Speaker #18: Okay . Just generally speaking , in terms of contracting the capacity at Cedar , have you been able to leverage that with to other business with Petronas or otherwise ?

Speaker #18: And I'm thinking , you know , downstream , you know , gathering liquids , fractionation , etc. .

Speaker #9: Yeah . I mean , I don't think we can get into into the , into that right now , but what we will say is we think we have a very strong relationship with Petronas that we're building on with this arrangement .

Speaker #9: And our hope is to continue to build on that and to do much more together.

Speaker #6: Hey , Robert , it's Kim here . I guess I would just add on top of that that I think obviously , you know , achieving a partnership with an entity of the prominence in the LNG space , like Petronas is , is , I think , really important for us .

Jaret Sprott: Additionally, as we move west, further away from Edmonton market, obviously that garners a higher toll just due to the proximity and the distance into the market. Thirdly, the majority of all of our contracts on the pipe side have CPI inflators built into them. Finally, what I would leave you with on how we maintain margin is our industry-leading project execution, and our ability, and I said it earlier, safe, reliable, cost-efficient operations continue to be a competitive advantage. We basically can allow our commercial teams to go out there, maintain the internal expectations of Pembina. Teams are bringing our projects on time, and under budget, and that really allows them to have some flexibility with the customers to meet their needs, but also maintain our margin and our internal financial expectations.

Speaker #6: And essentially really validates Cedar LNG . You know , in the global scale from an LNG project in terms of both the competitiveness of IT and the reality of it , I think what we would see is , you know , we we already had a relationship with Petronas on the upstream side , you know , dating back to the middle of the last decade in terms of servicing them on on the northeast BC side .

Speaker #6: But we would certainly love and see this as a beachhead to continue to try and expand that. We have a ton of respect for them as an organization.

Speaker #6: You know , I would say likewise , as we as we think about the remaining balance of Cedar and future LNG ambitions , obviously we've had lots of interest from customers in in our core business looking to achieve diversity of market access for their volumes .

Jaret Sprott: Hopefully that answers your question.

Aaron MacNeil: Yeah. That was more detail than I expected. Thank you for that. For my follow-up, I gotta ask on PGI. You know, you've previously talked about the benefits and the capital efficiency of owning 60%, but 100% would also likely have benefits such as, you know, perfect alignment on incremental capital, just given that, you know, you'd have, like, KKR doesn't have the downstream benefits that you do. Again, to sort of get you on the record one way or another, can you speak to your potential appetite to wanna consolidate that remaining 40%?

Speaker #6: And we'd say that, you know, there is a view that Cedar is a scarce resource and can continue to drive value both for them.

Speaker #6: But but for Pembina in win win type solutions . So I would say to answer your question pointedly , yes , we are seeing that type of value accretion through the rest of the core business .

Speaker #18: Okay . That's some good detail . And then just a couple of quick ones here . Just given the RFS for revised timeline , it looks like a second quarter in-service date .

Speaker #18: I'm wondering how that interplays with the upcoming NGL contract year. In other words, do you have any capacity to market there?

Speaker #18: available

Scott Burrows: Yeah, I think as a, as a general concept, we generally don't comment on specific M&A situations. What I will say in this specific situation is the fact that, you know, we still like the partnership, we like how it was set up, and we believe it's delivering what it was originally intended to do. We're happy with it.

Speaker #18: And will you be able to market it into the upcoming contract year given the servant state seems to be tight with the start of that year .

Speaker #18: .

Speaker #8: Rob Gerard here . Yeah , you nailed it . Like , you know , we're working really closely with with our execution team to bring that on as close as we can to the NGL season .

Aaron MacNeil: That's great. Thank you so much. Turn it back.

Speaker #8: Frac capacity is very tight in the fort right now . And

Speaker #8: So, it does give our commercial teams a lot of flexibility to work with customers and bring them in. The closer we can get to April 1st.

Operator: Your next question comes from Spiro Dounis of Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Spiro Dounis: Thanks, operator. Morning, team. Wanted to go back to the outlook quickly. You've got the Alliance to ER process out of the way. You've now got some Peace recontracting done. Addressed a lot of maybe the larger unknowns headed into 2026. At the same time, you've got some tailwinds coming from M&A, headwinds from commodity. Just curious in the context of that original fee-based EBITDA you provided back in 2024 for 2026, how do you think a lot of these moving items and factors play into that original range?

Speaker #8: But yeah , you nailed it .

Speaker #18: Okay . And finally , I'm just curious on the Alliance Recontracting in the the one one time option for term extension . You know , I think 96% of your firm capacity is contracted .

Speaker #18: I wondered if there were any contracts there with the marketing affiliates.

Speaker #5: You know .

Speaker #18: Okay . Thanks everyone .

Jaret Sprott: Hey, Spiro, thanks for the question. It's a really good one 'cause I think that's one of the things we're most proud about.

Speaker #3: Your next call comes from Ben Pham of BMO . Please go ahead .

Cameron Goldade: You know, as we set out, about a year and a half ago and put that guidance range out at our 2024 investor day, you know, we had a lot of confidence in that range and frankly, a lot of confidence in being in the upper end of that range. Continued to execute along the same ways that Jaret just talked about, you know, through the core base business, through the commercialization, as well as some really, really creative and attractive, you know, sort of bolt-on M&A opportunities across our business. Obviously, you know, what we've seen is on one hand, a couple headwinds, you know, primarily related to the revised Alliance CER settlement.

Speaker #19: Have you a couple questions on on peace and the conventional business segment . And I'm I'm wondering if you can characterize or comment on on the volume trends in in convention this year .

Speaker #19: It looks to be more in that two , 3% context versus the 6 to 7% plus before . I know you like a bit of a phase pickup in volumes , but could you could you comment , comment updates on that ?

Speaker #19: And what's the thought process into 2026 with new contracts and the broader business environment ?

Speaker #6: Yeah . Hey , Ben , it's cam . I'll start . And then maybe pass it over to Jared . I think one thing I would mention is that obviously , you know , if you if you stand back for a moment and look at our volumes that we reported in our conventionals , those are obviously , as we've said before , always the revenue volumes , which reflect our physical volumes plus take or pay contracts that we have in excess of that .

Cameron Goldade: What we've also done, as Jaret mentioned, is really taken a keen eye to our business and looked for opportunities to operate differently, to operate more efficiently, to focus on work that is higher value add versus lower value add. I would say that, you know, without sort of getting ahead of our 2026 guidance outlook, which will come in about a month's time, say we maintain a lot of confidence in obviously achieving that range and achieving a range or a spot in that range, which would, you know, reflect something consistent with our own expectations and of our expectations. We feel really good about that. We're working really hard on that.

Speaker #6: And and as you go through and try and look at the quarterly trend , you know , it is it is a bit it is it can be a bit misleading if you are trying to make make meaning out of that on a really narrow time frame , meaning quarter to quarter , you know , if I stand back for a second and look at what our conventional volumes did , you know , in , in Q3 versus Q2 sequentially , you know , those volumes would have been up about 4% quarter over quarter .

Cameron Goldade: I think again, you know, we continue to tout the resilience of our business, in many ways and the benefits of the diversity of it, the exposure to multiple commodities, the place that we play in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. We think that performance, you know, even in light of headwinds, which they come in business, demonstrates that.

Speaker #6: So we think if you sort of look at that relative to the industry , if you look at that , relative to other basins , you know that reflects very competitive and consistent growth .

Speaker #6: I think as we sit and look at 2026 , you know , it's it's it's kind of the I'll say the the heart of of that budgeting season right now for everybody .

Spiro Dounis: Got it. Simple color, Cam. Second one, going back to Greenlight as well. Could you maybe just put a finer point on when we can expect to start to see cash flows from this project to Pembina? When it comes to the phases, I think this initial phase is about half that total capacity envisioned, but I think you guys have mentioned four potential phases in total. Just maybe remind us again how you're thinking about the remaining phase scope and then the timeline.

Speaker #6: And I think what we expect to see longer term is continued growth in that single-digit range. And that's all supported by, obviously, continuing demand growth from the oil sands.

Speaker #6: I think we continue to see other infrastructure bottlenecks by by our peers . We continue to see the large operators talking about incremental bottlenecks on their on their projects to to drive incremental supply .

Scott Burrows: Well, the original phasing was 4 phases of 450. We are now talking about 2 phases of, you know, roughly 900. Again, we've gone from kind of a 1st phase of 450 to a 1st phase of 900, if that makes sense. We would expect based on our current timeline and current estimations that cash flow would occur in 2030.

Speaker #6: And we also see incremental gas demand outlook and incremental supply opportunities in the natural gas side, which, of course, drives the condensate and the NGL volumes.

Speaker #6: So longer term , we are very , very confident in the continued growth in that , you know , at least in that single digit level .

Speaker #6: I think in the near term , you know , we have to be mindful that , you know , in the new business environment that our producers operate in , where returns and value are paramount over simply , simply volume growth , you know , they are making decisions to optimize their longer term profiles and taking a longer term perspective .

Spiro Dounis: Perfect. I'll leave it there. Thank you, team.

Operator: Your next question comes from AJ O'Donnell of TPH. Please go ahead.

Speaker #6: So , you know , in any given year , you know , the growth may be more producer specific versus broad based or it may be simply timing related .

AJ O'Donnell: Hey, good morning, everyone. Maybe if I could just sneak one more in about Green Light, you know. As the data center, innovation center, conversations continue to pick up momentum, curious, is there a way to bridge the gap further? Have you guys explored potential, like, mobile or modular power solutions? Is that something that you guys have looked at before?

Speaker #6: But but longer term , we continue to see that . And I think , you know , if you look around our major producers , you know , many are demonstrating growth in that same level , some are choosing to defer some .

Speaker #6: But longer term, we continue to see growth at that single-digit level.

Speaker #8: Yeah . And just to add to that , Ben , you know , I think , you know , some of the recent announcements you would have seen the Ovintiv Nuvista transaction , you know , the Cnrl Chevron transaction , you know , although we talk about , you know , some customer consolidation sometimes puts some compression on our business .

Chris Scherman: AJ, thanks for the question. I mean, we've looked at a variety of different modes and means to facilitate this business. You know, I think from our perspective, what we have in place, the type of facilities and structure we have in place today is scalable, and really effective for what our customers are looking for. That's really what we stay focused on.

Cameron Goldade: AJ, it's Cam here. I would just add on top to that. I think our experience has been when we've looked at, you know, other developments as this occurs, you know, once you get the base, the core assets in place, they do tend to cluster. Obviously, as we think about the advantages that our solution has for this, obviously, proximity, access to utilities, access to water, all of the embedded advantages, you know, we do see benefits, and we do see that being an advantage in our offering for the future. We think there's opportunity beyond this.

AJ O'Donnell: Okay. Great. Appreciate the detail there. Maybe if I could just go to Cedar real quick. You know, there was a amendment filed for the increase of feed gas capacity from 400 to 500 MMcf. Curious what the read-throughs are there, if you could speak to some of the details. Potentially, does that equate to, you know, more volumes or more marketing upside for Pembina?

Stuart Taylor: AJ, it's Stuart Taylor. I'll maybe try to provide some clarity. When we originally were scoping out the project and looking at the size, we did permit the project for 3 MTPA, 400 MMcf per day. As we were going through engineering design, we'd seen an opportunity for very minor dollars, increase that capacity from 3 MTPA to 3.3. We undertook that spend and in our current, we are currently designing and building to the 3.3, and our announced capital actually incorporates that size. We knew we would have to go back from an amendment to the permits, and so we did that. Again, there's no change to the scope of the project or any of the capital cost estimates.

Cameron Goldade: As you go through these projects and you continue to work with engineering, we've seen, again, engineers don't design right to the exact capacity. They do add fat in their facilities and infrastructure. We've looked at, since we were going for the amendment, we believe the facility has the opportunity for on, you know, on days, particularly cold weather days, there will be an opportunity for incremental throughput.

Stuart Taylor: through the facility. As we were looking to do the amendment, we did increase that size of the amendment and increased it from 400 to 500. Obviously, we need incremental gas supply. These are potential volumes as we go forward. We will be working on that on a go-forward basis. Pardon me, these will be incremental cargoes, I'm sorry, beyond what we have contracted. We have only contracted the facility to the 3 MTPA size. So any incremental gas or incremental cargoes are upside for us.

AJ O'Donnell: That's super clear. I appreciate the detail. Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from Maurice Choy of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Maurice Choy: Thanks and good morning. If I could just start with a question about project execution. When I think about how globally resources are being directed towards supporting the AI sector, this could obviously lead to inflationary pressures globally in the coming years. I know that you've highlighted your project execution track record and capabilities. Just wondering what you tend to do in these early years before those pressures arrive, what actions you tend to take to kind of get ahead of the curve.

Jaret Sprott: Morning, Maurice. Yeah, I think the question was really about, you know, future pressures in, you know, certain areas. You know, one of the things that we're really focused on in our and we're really aligned with our board, and they ask us about is creating long-lasting partnerships with tier one contractors and obviously Indigenous communities. I think that's part of our overall strategy is, you know, not always going for lowest dollar, but committing ourselves to, you know, the safest, making sure that we have the A teams. We're aligned from the top with respect to our safety messaging and our project execution and the services that we'll be providing. I think we've made material ground with respect to that.

Jaret Sprott: I think internally here, I've talked about it before, we just have a culture of one team, one Pembina, when we're approaching these projects. I think it's something that we've been cultivating and we're really good at.

Maurice Choy: Thank you. If I could finish off the question on balance sheet in general. Again, just, you know, just wanna know philosophically, what is the comfortable or optimized cushion for you versus the 4.25 maximum debt to EBITDA? Where do you see that being by the year-end and peaking next year due to Cedar LNG CapEx?

Cameron Goldade: Hey, Maurice, it's Cam here. Yeah, I think good question because we've talked about that. Obviously, first thing worth reminding everyone is that is a proportionally consolidated number. That reflects not only the debt that we carry at the Pembina level, but debt that is included in the PGI credit stack, notwithstanding the fact that it's recourse. As well as at the moment, construction debt associated with Cedar LNG, which is obviously, again, non-recourse, but carried at that level. As we see exiting 2025, obviously we see that in the sorta the mid-3s range because of the timing and really remember that 2026 is the peak investment year for Cedar LNG, obviously without any of the commensurate earnings along with it.

Cameron Goldade: If we go back and remind ourselves of our message from our 2024 Investor Day, you know, we obviously talked about that 3-year outlook for capital being largely free cash flow neutral, with, you know, some shape to it throughout those individual 3 years. This would be consistent. We obviously are expecting free cash flow positivity in 2025. We saw free cash flow positivity in 2024. We would expect to see, you know, some free cash flow negativity in 2026. However, you know, on the long term, we feel obviously that we set our balance sheet up to be able to handle that.

Cameron Goldade: Obviously, as we move through 2026, we would expect that to moderate back down to the type of range that we've been comfortable with longer term. You know, ultimately, you know, that comfort zone is largely, 3.5 to 4 times. You know, could we go above that? You know, it's not where we would intend to go in the near term. You know, that's the way we think about the balance sheet at the moment.

Maurice Choy: That's great. Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from Robert Catellier from CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Robert Catellier: Rob Catellier from CIBC. A lot to talk about given all your contracting this quarter. Maybe I can start with the mechanics on the synthetic liquefaction agreement with Petronas. Maybe you can walk us through that and the circumstances you need to see to generate that incremental value enhancement.

Scott Burrows: Yeah. I'll talk about the contract in general and then I'll turn it over to Chris to provide some further details. You know, I think as you can appreciate, we're still finalizing the other 0.5 million tons. You know, given the status of that, you know, we're gonna stay away from specific details. But what I can tell you is that we were very pleased with the outcome of that negotiation. Maybe Chris, I'll turn it over to you to talk about the contract.

Chris Scherman: Yeah. As far as contract structure, it's effectively synthetic tolling. I mean, we are taking the obligations we have with Cedar and almost entirely passing those on to our customer. In addition to passing the terms on, we've been able to capture some participation in the upside of the market. To the extent the arb is open and attractive between Canadian AECO gas and the Far East, we'll have an opportunity to capture some of that upside and participate in that.

Robert Catellier: Okay. Just, generally speaking, in terms of contracting the capacity at Cedar, have you been able to leverage that to other business with PETRONAS or otherwise? I'm thinking, you know, downstream, you know, gathering liquids, fractionation, et cetera.

Chris Scherman: Yeah, I mean, I don't think we can get into that right now. What we will say is we think we have a very strong relationship with PETRONAS that we're building on with this arrangement. Our hope is to continue to build on that and do much more together.

Cameron Goldade: Hey, Robert, it's Cam here. I guess I would just add on top of that I think obviously, you know, achieving a partnership with an entity of the prominence in the LNG space like PETRONAS is I think really important for us and essentially really validates Cedar LNG, you know, in the global scale from an LNG project in terms of both the competitiveness of it and the reality of it. I think what we would see is, you know, we already had a relationship with PETRONAS on the upstream side, you know, dating back to the middle of the last decade in terms of servicing them on the Northeast BC side. We would certainly love and see this as a beachhead to continue to try and expand that.

Cameron Goldade: We have a ton of respect for them as an organization. You know, I would say likewise that as we think about the remaining balance of Cedar and future LNG ambitions, obviously, we've had lots of interest from customers in our core business looking to achieve diversity of market access for their volumes. Say that, you know, there is a view that Cedar is a scarce resource and can continue to drive value both for them, but for Pembina in win-win type solutions. I would say to answer your question pointedly, yes, we are seeing that type of value creation through the rest of the core business.

Robert Catellier: Okay, that's some good detail. just a couple quick ones here. just given the RFS IV revised timeline, it looks like a Q2 in service date. I'm wondering how that interplays with the upcoming NGL contract here. in other words, do you have any available capacity to market there, and will you be able to market it into the upcoming contract year, given the service date seems to be tight with the start of that year?

Jaret Sprott: 100%, Rob. Jaret here. Yeah, you nailed it. Like, you know, we're working really closely with our execution team to bring that on as close as we can to the NGL season. Frac capacity is very tight in the forward right now. It does give our commercial teams a lot of flexibility to work with customers in bringing them in the closer we can get to 1 April. Yeah, you nailed it.

Robert Catellier: Okay. Finally, I'm just curious on the Alliance recontracting and the one-time option for term extension. You know, I think 96% of your firm capacity is contracted. I wondered if there was any contracts there with the marketing affiliates.

Jaret Sprott: No.

Robert Catellier: Okay. Thanks, everyone.

Operator: Your next call comes from Ben Pham of BMO. Please go ahead.

Ben Pham: Hi. Thank you. I had a couple questions on Peace in the conventional business segment, and I'm wondering if you can characterize or comment on the volume trends in conventional this year. It looks to be more in that 2% to 3% context versus the 6% to 7% plus. Before, I know you flagged a bit of a phase pickup in the volumes, but can you comment/update us on that? What's the thought process into 2026 with new contracts and in the broader business environment?

Cameron Goldade: Yeah. Hey, Ben, it's Cam. I'll start and then maybe pass it over to Jaret. I think one thing I would mention is that obviously, you know, if you, if you stand back for a moment and look at our volumes that we report in our conventionals, those are obviously, as we said before, always the revenue volumes, which reflect our physical volumes plus take-or-pay contracts that we have in excess of that. As you go through and try and look at the quarterly trend, you know, it is, it can be a bit misleading if you sort of are trying to make meaning out of that on a really narrow timeframe, meaning quarter to quarter.

Cameron Goldade: You know, if I stand back for a second and look at what our conventional volumes did, you know, in Q3 versus Q2 sequentially, you know, those physical volumes would've been up about 4% quarter over quarter. We think if you sort of look at that relative to the industry, if you look at that relative to other basins, you know, that reflects very competitive and consistent growth. I think as we sit and look at 2026, you know, it's, it's kind of the, I'll say the heart of that budgeting season right now for everybody. I think what we expect to see longer term is continued growth in that single-digit range, and that's all supported by obviously continuing demand growth from the oil sands.

Cameron Goldade: I think we continue to see other infrastructural debottlenecks by our peers. We continue to see the large operators talking about incremental debottlenecks on their projects to drive incremental supply. We also see incremental gas demand outlet and incremental supply opportunities in the natural gas side, which of course drives the condensate and the NGL volume. Longer term, we are very, very confident in the continued growth in that, you know, at least in that single-digit level. I think in the near term, you know, we have to be mindful that, you know, in the new business environment that our producers operate in, where returns and value are paramount over simply volume growth, you know, they are making decisions to optimize their longer term profiles and taking a longer term perspective.

Cameron Goldade: You know, in any given year, you know, the growth may be more producer specific, versus broad-based, or, it may be simply timing related. Longer term, we continue to see that. I think, you know, if you look around our major producers, you know, many are demonstrating growth in that same level. Some are choosing to defer some, but longer term, we continue to see growth in that single digit level.

Jaret Sprott: Yeah, just to add to that, Ben, you know, I think, you know, some of the recent announcements you would've seen, the Ovintiv NuVista transaction, you know, the CNRL, Chevron transaction. You know, although we talk about, you know, some customer consolidation sometimes puts some compression on our business.