Q3 2025 Ovintiv Inc Earnings Call

Speaker #3: As a reminder , today's call is being recorded . At this time , all participants are in a listen only mode . Following the presentation , we will conduct a question and answer session .

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Speaker #3: For members of the media attending in listen only mode . Today , you may quote statements made by any of the Ovintiv Inc. representatives .

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Speaker #3: Please be advised that this conference call may not be recorded or rebroadcast without the express consent of Ovintiv Inc. . I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jason Voorhees from Investor Relations .

Speaker #3: go ahead . Mr. Voorhees .

Speaker #4: Thank you , Pam , and welcome everyone . This call is being webcast and the slides are available on our website at Ovintiv Inc. .

Speaker #4: Please take note of the advisory regarding forward looking statements . At the beginning of our slides and in our disclosure documents filed on Edgar and

Speaker #4: . Following the prepared remarks , we will be available to take your questions . Please limit your time to one question and one follow up Please .

Speaker #4: I'll now turn the call over to our president and CEO of Brendan McCracken .

Speaker #5: Thanks , Jason . Good morning , everybody , and thank you for joining us . We're excited to talk to you today about another great quarter .

Speaker #5: And some significant strategic actions we are taking to crystallize our vision of to becoming becoming the leading North American independent E&P . First , we've entered into an agreement to acquire Nuvista Energy , who have built an incredible asset base in the core of the Alberta Oil Window .

Speaker #5: This transaction is priced right , and we expect it to create exceptional value for our shareholders . It is immediately accretive on all financial metrics , highlighted by a 10% boost to our go forward free cash flow per share .

Speaker #5: It's leveraged neutral at closing . It comes with valuable spare midstream capacity and valuable downstream gas price exposure . And it adds significant inventory in the high return oil window of the Montney .

Speaker #5: Second , we plan to commence a divestiture process for the sale of our Anadarko assets . Proceeds will be used for accelerated debt reduction , and we now expect to be below our $4 billion debt target by the end of 2026 .

Speaker #5: That will enable us to allocate a higher percentage of our free cash flow to shareholder returns. Third, we have continued to meaningfully add to our Permian well inventory at highly attractive prices.

Speaker #5: By prosecuting our ground game strategy in the Midland Basin . Finally , we continue to deliver exceptional performance across the organization , highlighted by our strong third quarter results and positive full year 2025 guidance revisions .

Speaker #5: Collectively , these actions streamline and high grade our portfolio help us to meet or exceed our debt target and uniquely position us with significant inventory duration in the two most valuable oil plays in North America , Permian in the morning , before we get into the transaction details , Corey will give you a quick overview of our third quarter results .

Speaker #5: Thanks . Brendan . We delivered another strong quarter once again meeting or . beating all of .

Speaker #6: Our guidance targets , setting us up for a strong finish to the year . We generated cash flow per share of $3.47 and free cash flow of $351 million , both beating consensus estimates .

Speaker #6: We also returned approximately 235 million to our owners through share buybacks and our base dividend , and reduced net debt by $126 million .

Speaker #6: Production during the quarter was at the high end of our guidance ranges across all products . The beat was largely driven by the Montney .

Speaker #6: As we continue to see strong efficiency gains from our recently acquired Carr and Wapiti assets . We came in below the midpoint on capital , and we also matched or beat our guidance on all per unit cost items .

Speaker #6: Our third quarter results demonstrate the ongoing resiliency of our business and our constant pursuit of capital efficiency . Despite the more than $10 per barrel drop we've seen in WTI oil prices since the first quarter of 2020 .

Speaker #6: For our cash flow per share has remained relatively consistent . We've updated our full year guidance to incorporate our year to date results and improved Q4 outlook by increasing our production targets for all products while maintaining our capital guide .

Speaker #6: As a reminder , we lowered full year capital by $50 million last quarter to reflect our efficiency savings for full year 2025 . We now expect to deliver 10,000 boe per day .

Speaker #6: More production for 50 million less capital compared to our original plan . In the fourth quarter , we expect our total volumes to average approximately 620,000 doses per day , including about 206,000 barrels per day of oil and condensate and capital expected to come in at about $465 million .

Speaker #6: We've also adjusted our guidance to include an anticipated reduction in our 2025 cash tax bill of about $75 million , or about 50% less than we originally expected .

Speaker #6: This reflects the impact of an internal restructuring and evolving US tax guidelines . We expect these reductions to be durable for the next several years .

Speaker #6: In short , the team turned out another great quarter , and our 2025 outlook has improved . Once again . I'll now turn the call back to Brendan .

Speaker #5: Been operating in the market for more than 20 years , and in the Permian for over a decade , bolstering our position in these two days where we have a competitive advantage means we can continue to deliver durable returns for many years to come .

Speaker #5: Today's transaction marks a culmination in our strategy and our strategic positioning of the company to create a focused , high return , deep inventory portfolio .

Speaker #5: In total , since 2023 . We've increased our Permian and drilling inventory by more than 3200 locations at an average of $1.4 million per net location .

Speaker #5: This inventory , like expansion has been unmatched by our peers and leaves us with one of the most valuable inventory positions in the industry .

Speaker #5: This portfolio , combined with our execution capability , uniquely positions our company to generate superior returns for a long time to come . The Nuvista acquisition checks all the boxes .

Speaker #5: It's accretive across all key financial metrics . The combination enhances our returns , adds scale , and extends our future inventory . Runway in a core area .

Speaker #5: It boosts the quality of our oil inventory and enables us to maintain a strong balance sheet . We identified New Vista through an in-depth technical and commercial analysis of the Montney to identify the highest value undeveloped resource that analysis highlighted the new Vista assets , along with the paramount assets we acquired earlier this year as being the most attractive and most complementary to our existing Montney position .

Speaker #5: Vista sits in the core of the oil rich Alberta Montney . It's directly adjacent to our existing operations and car Wapiti and Pipestone .

Speaker #5: It is largely undeveloped and it comes with significant processing capacity for future oil and condensate growth . Optionality , along with a downstream market access portfolio that provides valuable natural gas price diversification outside the eco market .

Speaker #5: This is one of the highest quality undeveloped acreage positions in North America , and the overlap with our existing landmarks makes us the natural owner .

Speaker #5: While the assets are among the very best in the morning on a standalone basis . The combination with our acreage is an ideal setup to unlock significant value .

Speaker #5: This transaction will add approximately 930 , net 10,000 foot equivalent . Well locations across 140,000 net acres , extending our Montney oil inventory to the higher end of our existing 15 to 20 year range .

Speaker #5: But this transaction does not just add inventory. It makes our overall Montney position better. Folding into Vista will result in a 10% uplift to our average Montney oil type curve.

Speaker #5: Importantly , we are acquiring this high quality inventory at a reasonable cost for about $1.3 million per well location , which is very attractive compared to recent transaction metrics in the lower 48 .

Speaker #5: The acquisition provides strong financial accretion and will result in immediate and long term expansion in our per share metrics like cash flow , free cash flow , as well as increased rock .

Speaker #5: It will enhance our scale in the basin , increasing our 2026 expected Montney oil and condensate volumes to about 85,000 barrels per day .

Speaker #5: The acquisition is expected to be leveraged neutral at close , and we will retain ample liquidity and a strong balance sheet with this transaction .

Speaker #5: We are creating a stronger business that will be even better positioned for near and long term value creation . Let's dive in with some more details about the new Vista assets .

Speaker #5: The team at Vista has done a great job building a contiguous position in the core of the oil window , and we're excited to combine it with our existing assets .

Speaker #5: The acreage pairs incredibly well with our existing land base . As you can see on the map , it could not be a better fit .

Speaker #5: The acquired acreage is about 70% undeveloped , with about 400 horizontal wells producing today . In 2026 , we estimate the new Vista assets will deliver average volumes of about 100,000 Boes per day , including about 25,000 barrels of oil and condensate and 400,000,000 cubic feet a day of natural gas .

Speaker #5: The transaction also comes with significant eco price mitigation and diversified market access , which Greg will describe in more detail later in the presentation .

Speaker #5: I should point out that as a Canadian company , Vista reports its volumes on a net before royalties basis and uses Canadian dollars as its reporting currency .

Speaker #5: So the numbers we quote will look different than their reported numbers. I'll now turn the call over to Greg to walk through more of the details.

Speaker #5: Thanks , Brendan . This .

Speaker #7: Transaction adds depth and duration to our premium inventory and further expands our leading montney scale . The 620 premium Premium locations assume spacing of 10 to 14 wells per section , while the 310 upside locations assume up to 16 wells per section .

Speaker #7: And the most prolific areas , plus additional infill opportunities . This is consistent with the development approach taken on our legacy assets , including the paramount assets acquired earlier this year .

Speaker #7: Next year , we expect our pro forma 2026 total montney production to average about 400,000 boe per day , including 85,000 barrels per day of oil and condensate and 1.75 BCF per day of natural gas .

Speaker #7: We anticipate running an average of six rigs and 1 to 2 frac crews . We'll have further details to share on our 2026 capital program .

Speaker #7: When we issue our full year guidance in February , we are confident in our ability to unlock significant value from the new Vista assets using our proven development approach to generate superior asset level returns and unmatched capital efficiency , we expect to capture about 100 million in durable annualized free cash flow synergies .

Speaker #7: About half of the synergies are from lower capital costs . We expect to achieve a savings of $1 million per , well , consistent with our current montney .

Speaker #7: Well costs from streamlined , streamlined facility design and faster cycle times . The balance of the synergies come from other non well capital savings , lower production costs driven by enhanced scale connecting the wells to our Grand Prairie operations Control Center , where we use automation and in-house AI tools to optimize production and reduce downtime , as well as lower overhead .

Speaker #7: We are highly confident in our ability to realize these synergies given given strong track record of asset integration , which we demonstrated most recently by achieving our synergy target within the first six months of owning the Paramount assets , we also see the potential for significant future savings from things like the ability to optimize our development plans , giving more available processing capacity .

Speaker #7: The ability to extend the lateral length of our wells is currently constrained by lease lines, as well as the opportunity to further optimize our base production.

Speaker #7: Thanks to more integrated infrastructure . The enhanced value of our business is both structural and durable , and will support increased direct returns to shareholders and higher return on capital employed .

Speaker #7: Our confidence in the our of the new assets is evident in the strong well results from New Vista on this acreage . When we overlay new vistas , average well productivity from 2023 and 2024 , the acquired assets have delivered impressive cumulative oil rates .

Speaker #7: Integrating these assets into our Montney development plan results in a 10% oil and condensate productivity improvement for our previous program type curve . This is illustrated on slide 13 , where the dashed orange line shows our previous repeatable program and the thick orange line represents our new repeatable program with the addition of the new Vista assets .

Speaker #7: This is a powerful demonstration of the underlying rock quality . We're acquiring . The returns in the Montney oil window are competitive with the best plays in North America .

Speaker #7: This is a result of the high well productivity , the low drilling and completion costs , the favorable royalty structure , and the fact that Canadian condensate generally receives very close to WTI pricing .

Speaker #7: The economics are not dependent on a higher Nim or ACO price . Even at very modest ACO prices , these wells would still compete for capital in our portfolio .

Speaker #7: Our analysis of the proforma assets show that at the current strip , pricing , we expect the new Vista assets to generate a 55% rate of return in 2026 .

Speaker #7: The transaction comes with about 400,000,000 cubic feet per day of natural gas . New vistas downstream from transportation agreements and hedging arrangements will lower our exposure to ACO on a pro forma basis .

Speaker #7: Ovintiv Inc. 2026 ACO exposure will go from about 30% of our Montney gas production , pre-transaction down to about 25% Pro forma new vistas approach to ACO price mitigation is very similar to ours .

Speaker #7: They have done a great job of building out a diversified portfolio of firm transportation contracts to markets across North America for about 250,000,000 cubic feet per day of their natural gas volumes .

Speaker #7: They've received strong realized pricing as a result . Year to date . As of the end of the second quarter , their pre hedged gas price realization was approximately 180% of ACO .

Speaker #7: In addition , they have jkm link contracts for 21,000,000 cubic feet per day starting in 2027 . They also have a strong financial hedging program with a current mark to market value of about $120 million .

Speaker #7: New is a significant processing capacity , unlocks future growth , optionality for us . They have secured 600,000,000 cubic feet per day of long term raw inlet processing capacity , which , when combined with our existing Montney processing , will provide optionality for Ovintiv to grow our oil and condensate volumes by more than 5% for the next 3 to 5 years , with no major infrastructure spending requirements .

Speaker #7: We've had good success collaborating with midstream partners to improve uptime at the facilities we inherited through the Paramount transaction , and we are confident we can continue to add value with future processing optimization efforts across the play .

Speaker #7: I'll now turn the call back to Brendan .

Speaker #5: Thanks , Greg . Our work to build inventory depth is not restricted to the montney . Over the past several years , we've extended our Permian oil inventory runway to nearly 15 years .

Speaker #5: It's no secret that the price of inventory has gone up dramatically since 2023 , when we acquired over 1000 drilling locations in the Midland Basin for an average cost of about $2 million per well , we were ahead of the pack .

Speaker #5: And as recent transactions in the play value , the inventory as much as $7 million per well , while many people think there are no opportunities left to add inventory and make a reasonable rate of return , our team has continued to focus on bolt on blocking and tackling across our acreage position .

Speaker #5: Our Permian ground game has yielded impressive results , acquiring low cost , high quality inventory in the core of the play . Year to date , we've added 170 drilling locations .

Speaker #5: 90% of which are premium for an average cost of $1.5 million per well , these transactions do not include any producing wells . They are inventory accretive and they're offsetting our existing acreage and compete for capital immediately .

Speaker #5: We think there are more opportunities for reasonably priced bolt ons in the play , and we will continue to take a value driven approach to evaluating future prospects .

Speaker #5: We are funding the new Vista acquisition with a balanced mix of cash and equity . The sources of cash include cash on hand borrowings under our credit facilities and proceeds from a term loan we've chosen to pause our share buyback program for two quarters until around the time the transaction closes .

Speaker #5: This decision , coupled with our balanced financing mix , should result in a leveraged neutral transaction at the time of closing . During this time , we have also paused bolt on spending and are based dividend is unchanged .

Speaker #5: Debt reduction remains a key priority for us and we remain committed to reaching our net debt target of $4 billion , or about one times leverage at midcycle prices .

Speaker #5: As such , we have chosen to accelerate our pace of debt reduction and further streamline our portfolio through an asset disposition . We remain committed to preserving our investment grade credit profile , and we do not expect a negative impact to our investment grade ratings because of the new Vista transaction , we plan to commence a sales process for Anadarko assets that we expect to complete by the end of next year .

Speaker #5: The Anadarko is a highly valuable asset with a low decline rate , strong realized pricing , and low , low . It punches above its weight in free cash flow generation .

Speaker #5: In the third quarter , it produced roughly 100,000 views per day , including 29,000 barrels a day of oil and condensate . Following the divestiture , we expect to be well below our net debt target , enabling us to allocate a greater portion of our free cash to shareholder returns .

Speaker #5: We continue to believe our equity is undervalued , and share buybacks continue to screen as a superior return on investment compared to investing in growth .

Speaker #5: We will we will provide more details on what a refreshed shareholder return framework could look like as we get closer to the sale of the assets .

Speaker #5: In summary , yesterday's announcement reflects years of work to build the portfolio that delivers on our durable return strategy , and we're excited to reach this milestone on behalf of our shareholders , I'd like to recognize the efforts of our team to get us here .

Speaker #5: The new Vista assets and our ground game additions strengthen and expand our position in the top two oil basins in North America . The new Vista transaction is strongly accretive to our financial metrics , as well as our premium inventory depth .

Speaker #5: It's significantly boosts free cash flow per share , provides significant oil growth optionality , valuable gas price diversification , and maintains our investment grade rated balance sheet .

Speaker #5: Our track record of asset integration and operational excellence gives us confidence in our ability to deliver on the targets we've set out today .

Speaker #5: We have one of the most valuable premium inventory positions in our industry . We have worked diligently to focus on high grade , our asset base while strengthening our balance sheet .

Speaker #5: We now have the achievement of our debt target firmly in sight . And with that , the inflection to deliver increased returns to our shareholders .

Speaker #5: Operator . We're now ready to open the line for Q&A .

Speaker #3: Ladies and gentlemen , as a reminder , you can join the queue to ask a question by pressing Star one . We will now begin the question and answer session .

Speaker #3: Your first question comes from Caylee Ackerman with Bank of America . Please go ahead .

Speaker #8: Hey , good morning guys . Congratulations on the deal . I want to ask on the growth outlook for the new Vista asset .

Speaker #8: So Vista was prosecuting linear growth strategy through decade end . And that was really enabled by their investments in gas processing capacity . And the timing of that is pretty eminent .

Speaker #8: So my question is how are you thinking about balancing or optimizing those plants versus your capital discipline approach to to capital spend ?

Speaker #5: Yeah . Thank you very much . Appreciate the comments . And the question . Yeah . So we're going to fold this in and run our combined business in the same capital discipline way that you've seen us do over the last several years .

Speaker #5: And really what that has us thinking about is , is a couple of items . One , what's the macro , what's the for growth from large E&P companies ?

Speaker #5: And I think today it's fair and reasonable to say there is there is not a market demanding more barrels or BTUs b be produced .

Speaker #5: And so that that signal calls for a maintenance level investment . And then the other signal , we look closely at is can we get better cash flow per demand growth from buying our shares back or from adding activity in the field and again , that that signal is telling us it's a it's a better option for our shareholders to buy the shares back to generate that cash flow per share growth .

Speaker #5: So when we incorporate these new Vista assets , we're going to fold them into that same capital allocation strategy . And so we'll be slowing that rate of growth investment down and running the assets for free cash generation .

Speaker #5: If the environment continues to be the same .

Speaker #8: Thank you . I appreciate that from my follow up question , I want to ask about the 900 plus locations that you're acquiring with New Vista .

Speaker #8: That includes 300 upside locations . I want to understand the plan to de-risk those upside locations and whether that process is kind of already on the way .

Speaker #8: Considering that you're doing some similar work on the paramount assets that you acquired earlier this year .

Speaker #5: Yeah . Great question . I'll probably get Greg to comment here too , because you're exactly right . This acreage sits side by side with both our legacy Montney acreage .

Speaker #5: But also the the leg . Now , I guess now legacy acreage from the Paramount acquisition . And so the ability to take the learnings on , well , density across into this new acreage is , is giving us a lot of conviction .

Speaker #5: But Greg , you can kind of comment on some of the specifics on timeline .

Speaker #7: Yeah . Thanks , Brandon , and thanks for the question , Clay . You're you're spot on . If you look at the map , this acreage just really nicely fits in that hole between our Pipestone acreage and our paramount acreage we acquired earlier this year .

Speaker #7: We'll take the same approach , you know , in some areas that's going to be two zones , up to three zones , you know , ten to , to up to 16 wells per section .

Speaker #7: We're already well on our way at delineating the Pipestone acreage to see how much of that upside we can convert to base , we'll take the exact same approach here on the on the new Vista acreage .

Speaker #7: They've already done a pretty good job with that , but we feel like there's there's some room to go . So it'll just really fold right into the work we're already doing .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Phillip Youngwirth with BMO Capital Markets . Please go ahead .

Speaker #9: Thanks . Good morning . On on the year 26 timeline for the Anadarko sale . Is there anything you're looking to prove up ahead of the sale , such as ?

Speaker #9: Maybe like three mile laterals or just more optimized cube ? Or do you think most of this work has been done and then just wanted to wanted to ask also if there's been any reverse inquiries received to date , recognizing or starting the process early next year ?

Speaker #5: Yeah . Thanks , Phil . Great questions . Lots of interest in the Anadarko asset . As you might imagine . You know , there's been some precedent transactions in that basin .

Speaker #5: So , you know , our interpretation is there's a very strong buyer market in that basin for assets like ours . And and so I think on timeline nothing to prove up technically in the play .

Speaker #5: This is a really well understood low decline basin with with lots of certainty in it . And so I think the timeline will just be about maximizing proceeds for our shareholders .

Speaker #5: So that's that's how we'll be thinking about the timeline .

Speaker #9: Okay . Great . And then just depending on the actual proceeds received from the sale , how much below 4 billion of net debt would you would you view as a flaw ?

Speaker #9: I think in the past you've talked about some interest in going below that . Our model would put net debt at low fives .

Speaker #9: Call it by year end , 26 . So it feels like you could be quite a bit below this $4 billion target . And just wondering how we how where would you view the floor as we think about go forward capital returns .

Speaker #5: Yeah . Great question . Love the love the forward . Look there . I think the way we'll we'll talk about that is you know we got to get there and make those decisions with the facts of the moment and the macro at the time .

Speaker #5: But you know , if you took today's lens and you looked at it , that would be a tremendous opportunity for boosting those shareholder returns as we've indicated .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Scott Grover with Citigroup . Please go ahead .

Speaker #10: Yes . Good morning . Curious about Montney maintenance CapEx over the long term , you know , we can do the math on , you know , where that probably lands in 26 .

Speaker #10: But curious kind of your ability to push that down over the next 2 to 3 years after you realize the cost savings underpinning the deal and optimizing activity without a common lease line is just some thoughts on on being able to squeeze montney maintenance CapEx down even further .

Speaker #10: And where you think that could land .

Speaker #5: Yeah , thanks , Scott . Love how you're thinking about it . We highlighted a number of longer term synergies . We've obviously pointed to the the shorter term capital and cash cost synergies .

Speaker #5: But there are some longer term synergies here as well . Putting these these two asset bases together . You know , boosts our tight curve ability to drill longer laterals things like that .

Speaker #5: But you know Greg might have a comment on how we'll think about continuing to to add efficiencies in the play .

Speaker #7: Yeah . Thanks for the question . You know , we'll in the very short term we'll work on getting the cost structure on these new assets down to our cost structure , which will be around $525 foot .

Speaker #7: But then , you know , over time , in all of our plays , we usually are able to continue to see a 2 or 3% reduction year over year just due to efficiencies in our programs .

Speaker #7: So we'll continue to drive that down just organically . And then some of the , the really I think attractive opportunities of if you look at the map , I mean this is ripe for opportunities to lengthen laterals across lease lines to share infrastructure .

Speaker #7: We've already identified some spots where it looks like some of their infrastructure will replace capital spend that we were planning on in the next year or two .

Speaker #7: So we feel like we're going to be able to drive down our capital structure here significantly over time . If you think about , you know , we're not ready to give guidance for next year .

Speaker #7: But , you know , we'll probably have about a third of our activity on this new acreage , a third on the acreage we acquired last year and a third on our legacy .

Speaker #7: So we'll have opportunities to learn . And get better in all three places . So we feel like over time , we're going to continue just drive down our what's already an industry leading capital efficiency up there .

Speaker #10: Well , I appreciate the color . And then .

Speaker #5: Thanks , Scott .

Speaker #10: Well . Yeah . Quick follow up on on the well productivity delta . It's a decent step above yours and looking for a nice 10% improvement on a blended basis .

Speaker #10: Is the delta there all rock quality? Are they undertaking a different style of completion? What do you attribute that delta to?

Speaker #10: And if it is rock quality , do you think about pivoting more activity in that direction over time ?

Speaker #5: Yeah , Scott , great question . Yeah , it's all oil mixed . So this is really a fluid window piece . So where the new acreage sits relative to the basket of ovintiv acreage , it runs just a little more oily .

Speaker #5: So net net , our oil type curve goes up on mix . So that that's the driver there .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Betty Jang with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker #11: Good morning . Congrats on on the acquisition . I want to ask about the the processing capacity and and then on the , on the measuring front specifically for the montney with a expanded scale .

Speaker #11: Are there opportunities to optimize how how you utilize the different plants , the flows , utilization of different plants and and the opportunity to potentially negotiate better contract on the measuring front ?

Speaker #5: Yeah . Betty . Thank you for your comments and the question . Absolutely . On the midstream side , it's one of the the deals , synergies , that's that's sort of baked into some of the cash cost piece .

Speaker #5: But, but also the capital. And then in the longer term, there’s an unquantified synergy bucket here too. So there's lots to talk about here.

Speaker #5: If we if we focus on midstream side Greg . Just , just alluded to this earlier . You know , there's several places where we can avoid some capital expenditure that we would have had for , for minor infrastructure projects that now could come out because these assets come with spare capacity .

Speaker #5: So that's kind of immediate . One of the big wins we've had on the Paramount integration is around runtime . And so we expect an integrated asset here is going to also be able to boost boost runtime through these midstream and and processing facilities .

Speaker #5: And then the final piece is around the ability to to grow into these assets over time . When the macro calls for that in the future .

Speaker #5: So a lot of a lot of good wins to to capture on the midstream infrastructure side here .

Speaker #11: That's great . And then follow up on the gas marketing side , just given the larger position , do you see adding scale , enabling a more opportunities to market gas , whether on the global LNG front or or other ways to mitigate your exposure to eco ?

Speaker #5: Yeah , absolutely . So our strategy has been to to minimize our exposure to ACO , and we've been steadily chipping away at that over the last number of years .

Speaker #5: And in particular , since we acquired the the ACO exposed gas from Paramount . And we're going to continue to do that . One of the deal features we love here is it does reduce our exposure in the next several years from about 25% .

Speaker #5: Sorry , from about 30% down to 25% . So so there's a built in step change from combining these assets together . And we will continue to to look for other downstream markets to diversify our our ACO away from .

Speaker #5: And I know our midstream and marketing team is is hard at work on that today .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Lloyd Byrne with Jefferies . Please go ahead .

Speaker #12: Hey .

Speaker #13: Can you guys hear me ? All right .

Speaker #5: Yep . Go ahead . Lloyd .

Speaker #13: Yeah . Sorry . Congratulations on it . The transaction and the frankly , the entire portfolio transformation over the last couple of years , it's been really good .

Speaker #13: Can you just start with maybe the question that started off on potential growth going forward ? We kind of think you can grow these assets on a liquids basis .

Speaker #13: If you want . And is there any infrastructure or processing constraints that you have that would block that .

Speaker #5: Yeah . Thank thanks , for the comment . And and great question . So if you think about what this transaction does , we we had already built a real growth option in the Montney oil with the addition of the Paramount acreage , because that came with some spare processing and midstream capacity as well .

Speaker #5: This one boosts that up . So we had previously been talking about kind of that low to mid single digit growth potential for oil and condensate , compounded over several years .

Speaker #5: This now boosts us up to be able to do over 5% growth for up to five years . And so if you think about what that could mean , it could take our 85,000 barrels a day in the play up , you know , well , north of 100,000 barrels a day over that period , if we chose to make those investments .

Speaker #5: So again , I'll caution that is not our capital allocation plan today . And this macro environment . But in the event of a stronger macro environment , this both the inventory depth and the processing facilities are there to be able to facilitate that growth without major infrastructure investment .

Speaker #5: And you didn't ask it , but I'll pile on a little bit here . Obviously the addition of our ground game locations in the Permian also give us a lot of confidence in that growth option as well .

Speaker #5: And and that is also a place where there's ample processing capacity available . Should we choose to exercise that . So really we've got that growth option unlocked across the future portfolio here .

Speaker #13: That's great . You Brian . You beat me to my second question . I just wanted to ask you about the ground game .

Speaker #13: And in the Permian and just , you know , what is it that allows you to keep adding those locations at an attractive price ?

Speaker #13: And can you you think you can continue that going forward ?

Speaker #5: Yeah . Thanks , Lloyd . Yeah . Appreciate you cheering me back there . The you know this is this is a great example of how the ingenuity and and and approach that our team is taking is exposing our shareholders to a unique value creation option .

Speaker #5: So really where our comparative advantage comes into play here is , you know , if you're a . Large mineral rights holder in the Permian , the operator of choice for you is Ovintiv Inc. .

Speaker #5: You know , we're going to get you the best royalty stream off of these assets because of our cube development approach and because of our reoccupation strategy .

Speaker #5: And you know , how we conduct our operations in the basin . So that's allowing us to to access really high quality resource at a very attractive entry price for our shareholders .

Speaker #5: And , and , you know , we look forward to seeing what that can yield in , in future years as well .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research . Please go ahead .

Speaker #14: Thanks . Good morning everyone . So obviously you've set the table for the Anadarko sale . I wonder we're coming into potentially what some would think is a softer oil outlook .

Speaker #14: Are there any conditions where if you don't get what you hope to achieve in terms of valuation , that you would hang on to that asset longer , or is it sale regardless of the I mean , how are you thinking about framing the conditions of a sale ?

Speaker #5: Yes , it's the right question , Doug . I think , you know , look , the one thing I'll point out , first of all is Anadarko , you know , well , it makes a fair amount of oil .

Speaker #5: It's about a third oil , a third NGLs and a third gas . So it does have good commodity exposure across the the three products here .

Speaker #5: So it's it's not exposed to one exclusively which is , which is helpful in really any environment . And then you know this is a really high quality asset .

Speaker #5: It's going to attract I think a lot of attention . And then we've given ourselves a , you know , a reasonable run , running time here to , to execute .

Speaker #5: And so we'll be , you know , working through that time period to maximize the proceeds to our shareholders . But , but certainly cognizant of , of making sure we do that .

Speaker #14: I wonder if I could be predictable and ask you about the capital return strategy . You're taking a pause on the buyback . We've certainly can understand why your free cash flow yield is is as high as it is .

Speaker #14: But at the same time , we look at the capital structure and think share buybacks are glacial . They're not they're not working in terms of forcing market recognition of value .

Speaker #14: And you've got this opportunity to pause and basically test perhaps what happens if you lower your net debt and transfer that value to equity .

Speaker #14: So, I guess my question is: you seem to be messaging the $4 billion floor and then a reset, potentially in the share buybacks.

Speaker #14: Why not just take the debt down and reset your capital structure altogether ?

Speaker #5: Yeah , I think I think , Doug , that's exactly what we'll be doing with the transaction . So I think we continue to be in agreement here about where we're trying to get the business to .

Speaker #5: And and so we think the prudent approach we're taking here with the , the pause until close allows us to be leverage neutral with where we are .

Speaker #5: Pre-deal . And then the transaction on the Anadarko would enable us to immediately step , change below that . That debt target . So and give us the flexibility from there .

Speaker #5: So yeah , I think we're I think we're agreeing with you .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Dreda or sorry , Greta drift with Goldman Sachs . Please go ahead .

Speaker #15: Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I was just wondering if you could speak a bit on the drivers of the $100 million in annual capital and cost synergies outlined with the new acquisition?

Speaker #15: Are these similar changes to the changes made while incorporating the acreage from the Paramount acquisition at the start of the year ? Or are there different opportunities you would highlight there ?

Speaker #5: Yeah , Greta , I'll let Greg chime in on that .

Speaker #7: Yeah , thanks for the question . You know , first off , you know , I just want to compliment you . Mr. .

Speaker #7: They've done a really nice job with the assets to this point , which is why we were so interested in acquiring them . But our team has developed a really a well defined and refined integration playbook that we'll start .

Speaker #7: Think of it kind of in two lenses . There's the short term . That first day up to the first , you know , six , nine months , and then longer term , how we approach things .

Speaker #7: But just immediately after close , we'll be connecting their rigs up to our , our drive center , where we'll use in-house algorithms and AI to further refine our drilling efficiencies , as well as our cost base and learnings and things we've learned here in the US .

Speaker #7: You know , we think that's going to drive , you know , several days out of drill times on the completion side , we're going to utilize our real time frack optimization center , which will refine pumping schedules , shorten cycle times .

Speaker #7: Our use of local sand there in the basin , which should also generate some some really good cost savings . Shortly after close and then on the facility side , we see some significant opportunities to to reduce cost of both the new facilities .

Speaker #7: We're going to build . But then longer term , as we showed on slide 15 , there , our acreage position midstream are really well aligned where they're located close to each other .

Speaker #7: So we should be able to reduce facilities costs going forward . And optimize that . So on the capital side , you know , that'll make up about half of the of the efficiencies we're going to see .

Speaker #7: And we think that's going to happen pretty quick . I mean we're going to measure that in months . Not not quarters or years .

Speaker #7: But then just importantly on the production side , you know , we're going to reduce costs there and get more efficient . We'll do just what we did on the last transaction .

Speaker #7: We're going to connect the wells to our operations control center in Grand Prairie very quickly . And inexpensively . And from there we'll be able to optimize production using our in-house AI tools and algorithms to optimize production on all the wells and set points on artificial lift .

Speaker #7: Those types of things . But also what we found to be very effective is the automation that we put in place so we can not only shut in wells remotely , but also bring them back online in minutes .

Speaker #7: And so, while we've really improved the midstream reliability, we think we'll be able to work with the new midstream providers here to help them as well when, inevitably, you do have downtime or a turnaround.

Speaker #7: We can bring our wells back online faster than anybody else in industry up there . And what that does is just really increases our uptime .

Speaker #7: So you'll see a production benefit there as well as a cost reduction . And then when you look longer term , you know , as I spoke about earlier , we're going to be looking to go to longer laterals .

Speaker #7: We've got some shared acreage that actually had a shared working interest between Paramount and Nuvista . Historically , we'll be able to make those 100% working interest wells extend lateral links , develop that very efficiently .

Speaker #7: We'll be able to share and optimize infrastructure , spend . And that'll also help base production as well as new wells . So just lots of different ways we're going to be able to achieve this over the coming months and even longer .

Speaker #7: So I'm really excited . Team's looking forward to get to work on optimizing this asset .

Speaker #15: Great. Thank you. And then just for my second question, I was wondering if you could speak a little bit more about the decision to fund the acquisition through a combination of both equity and cash?

Speaker #15: Can you just speak a little bit about why a 50 over 50 split is the optimal split, in your view?

Speaker #5: Yeah . Thanks , Greta . You know , I think the right place to start here is with getting the total consideration right .

Speaker #5: And so , so that that obviously was the starting point for us . And then the next is to to find the right balance on the financing mix .

Speaker #5: We were very disciplined with how much equity we used in the deal . You know , it's our view that our , our equity continues to be undervalued .

Speaker #5: So we wanted to be disciplined with how we used those shares . And then we also , you know , wanted to make sure we held leverage neutral like we've described at close here .

Speaker #5: And so really those are kind of the governing features with how we thought about mix . And , and we think the , the outcome .

Speaker #5: Accretion and and across the board uplifts the , the business makes sense with that mix .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Kevin McCurdy with Pickering Energy Partners . Please go ahead .

Speaker #16: Hey , good morning . I always appreciate your view on ACO and Canadian Gas prices . You made the point with this transaction that it lowers your ACO exposure and your acquiring some really nice hedges over the next several years .

Speaker #16: But I wonder if you could update us on your long term outlook for ACO and the Canadian gas markets , and maybe what key projects would make you a little bit more constructive ?

Speaker #5: Yeah , Kevin , obviously we've been cautious on ACO . You know , as the start up of LNG , Canada is is helpful and an important milestone for Western Canadian gas producers .

Speaker #5: But but also you know recognize the basin continues to be highly productive with a lot of growth capacity . And so so we've been kind of near-term cautious .

Speaker #5: I think I would I would describe us as we look out into 2026 , you know , a little more constructive as that LNG Canada ramps up .

Speaker #5: But but still cautious because , you know , it's not the the end all and be all . But if you look forward to the LNG projects that are queuing up towards the end of the decade and into the early part of the 2030s , you know , we think there's a real optimism around Western Canadian pricing and what that additional egress could mean to the basin .

Speaker #5: And so built into our Montney business is a gas option . And and we are long term excited about the value embedded in that gas option .

Speaker #16: Thanks for that . And just for clarification on the Permian inventory additions , was the $250 million in spending in October . Was that was that just from one transaction , or was that several small deals that that are that happened to be closing at the same time ?

Speaker #5: Yeah , we we bucketed together several deals into that to , to achieve that . So , you know , true , true ground game fashion .

Speaker #5: There . Thanks , Kevin .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from David Deckelbaum with TD Cowan . Please go ahead .

Speaker #17: Hi . Morning everyone . Thanks for taking my question today . I wanted to just follow up on some of the allocation conversations and some of the synergies with the new Vista transaction .

Speaker #17: You guys highlighted . Obviously , the superior well productivity . And I think you talked about kind of splitting your activity evenly between Paramount Vista and Ovintiv acreage up in the Montney .

Speaker #17: I guess , is there is there a future outlook that you would be moving more of the activity to more aggressively accelerate the development ?

Speaker #17: Sounds like you're not constrained from an infrastructure side on the new Vista acreage , so that would sort of increase your your free cash per share metrics .

Speaker #5: Yeah . You know , look , we're we are going to allocate capital across the montney to , to maximize free cash flow , but also bear in mind our reoccupation strategy , which is really a reservoir management strategy to to come back and drill cubes beside cubes within 18 to 24 months .

Speaker #5: And so those will be the two things that largely govern along with with processing capacity . But those would be the things that govern our our capital allocation across the assets .

Speaker #5: But like Greg said , it's , you know , it might shift around a little bit , but I think it's pretty stable in that one third , one third , one third across the three buckets of , of montney acreage .

Speaker #17: I appreciate that . And I know it's a bit early , but you know , share your view on the valuation for for the Anadarko Basin .

Speaker #17: Seems like it should be approximately what you pay for the Vista just on PDP alone . So I'm kind of curious just from a tax perspective , how you think about any tax slippages from transacting there or if you have some offsetting mechanisms ?

Speaker #5: Yeah , I'll let Corey cover that .

Speaker #6: Yeah . Good morning . So just on that front , we've got some existing bases on the asset . And then obviously depending on how high the price is we should be able to cover it with other tax attributes .

Speaker #6: So we don't forecast much of any tax leakage on the sale .

Speaker #5: Thanks , David .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Chris Baker with Evercore ISI . Please go ahead .

Speaker #16: Hey , guys .

Speaker #18: Thanks for squeezing me in . Just a quick one . It sounds like this asset has been identified quite some time ago . I'm just curious in terms of the ultimate timing that we're seeing here , was that at all influenced by the the share sale ?

Speaker #18: Obviously mentioning the release or just anything around , the timing piece , given the Anadarko assets , that would be helpful .

Speaker #5: Yeah . Chris . Look , you're quite right . So we had identified this as as one of the three assets that made a lot of sense for us as we went through this portfolio transition .

Speaker #5: And , and so pleased to be able to , to get to this point here today . You know , I think the way to think about it is , you know , the the disclosure from Nuvista highlights , they began a competitive process for the asset back in August .

Speaker #5: And and we , you know , acquired the shares . You know , right at right at the start of October . So that gives you some sense of the sequencing here .

Speaker #18: Maybe just . clarify that .

Speaker #6: The three .

Speaker #5: Oh oh sorry . Go ahead .

Speaker #6: I'm just going say just clarify . You've been one of the three .

Speaker #5: Yeah . The Northern Midland basin , the Paramount and then Nuvista were the three . Yeah . Yeah . Good , good point .

Speaker #18: Got it . That's great . And apologies if this was covered earlier , but any sense on what run rate EBITDA looks like for the Mid-con asset this year ?

Speaker #5: I don't have that number to hand here , Chris . I'm sorry , I've got I have to there's a lot of numbers in front of me right now , but I don't have that one .

Speaker #5: Sorry . Team can follow up with you .

Speaker #3: Your next question comes from Jeff with Daniel Energy Partners . Please go ahead .

Speaker #13: Hi , guys .

Speaker #19: I just had a couple . If I could . First is the soft guide for 2026 Pro . Is that inclusive of the Anadarko production or exclusive ?

Speaker #5: Yeah . Hey , Jeff . Yeah . It's inclusive of the Anadarko production . So we'll we'll update that once we've got clarity on the on the divestiture timing .

Speaker #19: All right . Great . And then my second is on the then going back and I guess maybe beating a dead horse on slide 12 .

Speaker #19: But in looking at the the future synergies piece , you know , I noticed your AI and production optimization are kind of in two buckets near and long term .

Speaker #19: And I'm wondering what the long term I guess AI automation piece is and what makes it long term .

Speaker #5: Yeah , I mean , we're just at the very front end of of applying these technologies into our business . And , you know , you know , as you saw , Jeff , when you joined us in the montney , this past summer , we're we're we're active in sort of three main areas .

Speaker #5: We're active in the production operations place . So it's helping us on the uptime and on the artificial lift optimization . It's helping us on the drilling times and costs , and then it's helping us on the completions .

Speaker #5: Both the cost and the , the , the productivity of the wells . So but we're really early days in trying to figure out what this technology can do for us .

Speaker #5: And so hard to point to where it's going to go over time . But , you know , put us in the optimistic camp here of of seeing the potential for this to to really transform our business .

Speaker #3: At this time , we have completed the question and answer session , and I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Verhorst .

Speaker #3: Please go ahead .

Speaker #4: Thanks , Pam . And thank you , everyone for joining us today . Our call is now complete .

Speaker #3: Ladies and gentlemen , this concludes our conference call for today . We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines .